Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1240
{ "count": 5899, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1260", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1220", "results": [ { "id": 31831, "title": "Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?", "short_title": "2025 Rugby Six Nations Championship Won by 5 or More Points?", "url_title": "2025 Rugby Six Nations Championship Won by 5 or More Points?", "slug": "2025-rugby-six-nations-championship-won-by-5-or-more-points", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-22T18:17:41.294682Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T23:45:00.016960Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.345687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-30T23:45:00.016958Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T02:12:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 719, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T00:51:15.310393Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T00:51:15.310393Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31351, "title": "Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?", "created_at": "2025-01-22T18:17:41.295056Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-17T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-17T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T02:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-17T02:13:34.187465Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-14T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe [<u>Six Nations Championship</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Nations_Championship) is a long-running annual rugby competition between international competitors. Established in 1883 as the Home Nations Championship, between the four nations of the United Kingdom, its current iteration is between the teams of England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, and Wales.\n\nEach Championship consists of 15 matches, with each team playing the other five once. The Championship winner is determined by a [<u>points system</u>](https://www.sixnationsrugby.com/en/m6n/championship-rules) that includes Match Points, with some Match Points typically referred to as Bonus Points. If a team wins a match, they receive four Match Points. Draws result in two Match Points for each team. A single Bonus Point can be earned for each match by scoring four or more tries during the match. If a team loses a match a Bonus Point can be earned for that match by losing by seven points or fewer.\n\nWinning all five matches is called a “Grand Slam” and earns a team an additional three Bonus Points, giving it a minimum score of 23 points. This ensures that winning a Grand Slam wins the competition, even if another team wins four of their games and maxes out their bonus points.\n\nThe [<u>2025 Six Nations Championship</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Six_Nations_Championship) is scheduled to be held from January 31, 2025, through March 15, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship beats the team finishing second by 5 or more total competition points, according to reports of the final results published by [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). Total competition points include Match Points and Bonus Points.", "fine_print": "* In the event of delays or postponements that result in the final competition score not being available before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 31831, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741988318.017742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 713, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741988318.017742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 713, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011185319803938686 ], "histogram": [ [ 43.96845164798289, 4.684793395534162, 1.219592857354632, 0.5614580608603259, 0.01453645182485772, 0.15230100112935063, 0.005808714630233937, 0.29911061002942957, 0.0037007673633832065, 6.485622011343119e-05, 0.08042251089632509, 0.16492562741107003, 4.112292311887912e-08, 0.0, 0.0053482009679055075, 0.002994865365631338, 0.0, 0.0003292249093627429, 7.289759470860324e-05, 5.723606674610448e-05, 0.015203434917626091, 0.16164556089699397, 0.0007190940855522031, 4.657876697237217e-06, 2.6537021517301402e-05, 0.00038814543645601803, 0.00021925306405015581, 2.8150663851023324e-07, 0.0009827616054238614, 0.0, 0.0008909173999251338, 0.0002666738359482555, 2.120458649338986e-06, 0.0003032908539152109, 4.563024393663076e-05, 3.457442784292697e-05, 0.0011721676010268964, 0.0010485579692436093, 5.713505839776495e-06, 0.22695140216072274, 0.0029390806522514024, 0.0002877608808161213, 6.299351274090163e-05, 7.583839554224168e-05, 0.0, 0.00013040716212619235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001060120276414947, 0.000963048663228484, 0.0008905262660044955, 0.00020451958588645256, 0.00024513232822293755, 4.827468757971642e-05, 0.0024456976116243733, 0.0015726141903757256, 0.004361241459415509, 0.003155470645753639, 0.0, 0.0034405373353384146, 0.01378426868080867, 0.007585572444209012, 0.0044606022170411075, 0.0032310538044547747, 0.0012781090848390814, 0.002343970198942886, 0.0024198837540320615, 0.0008629298630705929, 0.00013684398243088967, 1.5986053216273245e-05, 0.003832470945168939, 0.07441352136056135, 0.0022549956285937136, 4.2874870507827265e-06, 8.926463067214696e-05, 0.18006895404596296, 8.841987363001414e-05, 9.68577817572502e-07, 1.1077406808524983e-07, 1.1139632593330918e-05, 0.0014126652159353005, 0.0015100071529224515, 9.35013274156669e-06, 4.808008701982792e-06, 0.00011542752004177178, 0.0014121389372244455, 0.001426376215531529, 0.0, 0.00017642949672954763, 0.0, 0.0003581874900233168, 0.001640282905932207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.972790488356005e-05, 0.0006853560959392359, 2.2911513805074433e-08, 0.0, 0.005157081510966058 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -5.411233479509738, "peer_score": 39.34181999720488, "coverage": 0.9996749711002232, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996749711002232, "spot_peer_score": 44.45975960472032, "spot_baseline_score": -2.914634565951651, "baseline_archived_score": -5.411233479509738, "peer_archived_score": 39.34181999720488, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.45975960472032, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -2.914634565951651 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2249, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe [<u>Six Nations Championship</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Nations_Championship) is a long-running annual rugby competition between international competitors. Established in 1883 as the Home Nations Championship, between the four nations of the United Kingdom, its current iteration is between the teams of England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, and Wales.\n\nEach Championship consists of 15 matches, with each team playing the other five once. The Championship winner is determined by a [<u>points system</u>](https://www.sixnationsrugby.com/en/m6n/championship-rules) that includes Match Points, with some Match Points typically referred to as Bonus Points. If a team wins a match, they receive four Match Points. Draws result in two Match Points for each team. A single Bonus Point can be earned for each match by scoring four or more tries during the match. If a team loses a match a Bonus Point can be earned for that match by losing by seven points or fewer.\n\nWinning all five matches is called a “Grand Slam” and earns a team an additional three Bonus Points, giving it a minimum score of 23 points. This ensures that winning a Grand Slam wins the competition, even if another team wins four of their games and maxes out their bonus points.\n\nThe [<u>2025 Six Nations Championship</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Six_Nations_Championship) is scheduled to be held from January 31, 2025, through March 15, 2025." }, { "id": 31821, "title": "Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before May 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire by May 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire by May 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-russia-and-ukraine-announce-a-ceasefire-by-may-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-22T01:34:16.440839Z", "published_at": "2025-02-01T00:45:14.883809Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.610051Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-01T00:45:14.883807Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T23:19:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-04T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32634, "name": "Flagler College Spring 2025", "type": "community", "slug": "sellers", "description": "This is a forecasting space for Spring 2025 students of Professor Bailey Sellers, POS 332: Political Science Scopes & Methods.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_5VpDCmc.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_pic_CfiDMUz.png", "followers_count": 16, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32634, "name": "Flagler College Spring 2025", "type": "community", "slug": "sellers", "description": "This is a forecasting space for Spring 2025 students of Professor Bailey Sellers, POS 332: Political Science Scopes & Methods.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_5VpDCmc.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_pic_CfiDMUz.png", "followers_count": 16, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31347, "title": "Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before May 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-22T01:34:16.441266Z", "open_time": "2025-02-04T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-09T00:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-09T00:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T23:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-01T23:38:26.747202Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5099161-trump-sanctions-russia-ukraine/) on January 21, 2025:\n\n> President Trump said Tuesday it was likely he would impose additional sanctions on Russia if it did not come to the negotiating table to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine.\n\n> “Sounds likely,” Trump said of potential sanctions on Moscow.\n\n> Trump has called for a [ceasefire in Ukraine](https://thehill.com/policy/international/5098017-trump-putin-ukraine-russia-war/), urging both sides to negotiate. Russian forces invaded Ukraine in early 2022, and both sides have sustained heavy losses in the nearly three years of fighting.\n\nSee also: [Peace negotiations in the Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before May 1, 2025. The ceasefire agreement must have an intended duration that is either indefinite or greater than 21 days. ", "fine_print": "Both sides must announce a ceasefire. Cessation of fighting by itself will not count. \n\nThis question resolves based on an announcement. Other factors such as compliance with the ceasefire or the date a ceasefire takes effect will not affect resolution. \n\nIn order to count, a ceasefire must apply to a majority of combatants on each of the Russian and Ukrainian sides.", "post_id": 31821, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745856437.033781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745856437.033781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.13915759777704853 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2718482104294435, 2.491404727851486, 0.0, 0.6222927254089794, 0.29740843929828004, 3.418311191327292, 0.0, 0.21588475063544757, 0.43455049684738395, 1.4672690605252767, 0.3888426110062623, 0.3743651858727827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4676110092672276, 0.09493516851667833, 0.0, 0.10746304061856489, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1259253472998636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16243366463019449, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04387033764028439, 0.0, 0.40350388084437705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07002178140701876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01822907903177938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03850858165784335, 0.0, 0.04816139989060515, 0.0027844015881518533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.167827063947821, 0.22002352714673556, 0.0, 0.006942996711877092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12899150325450517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25391007566435586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08895535332445731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03041962011451429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27493576634473277 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 69.41710183725546, "peer_score": 32.696256572472336, "coverage": 0.9958451650489262, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9958451650489262, "spot_peer_score": 18.86471155707337, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 69.41710183725546, "peer_archived_score": 32.696256572472336, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.86471155707337, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5099161-trump-sanctions-russia-ukraine/) on January 21, 2025:\n\n> President Trump said Tuesday it was likely he would impose additional sanctions on Russia if it did not come to the negotiating table to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine.\n\n> “Sounds likely,” Trump said of potential sanctions on Moscow.\n\n> Trump has called for a [ceasefire in Ukraine](https://thehill.com/policy/international/5098017-trump-putin-ukraine-russia-war/), urging both sides to negotiate. Russian forces invaded Ukraine in early 2022, and both sides have sustained heavy losses in the nearly three years of fighting.\n\nSee also: [Peace negotiations in the Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine)" }, { "id": 31816, "title": "Will the Global Protest Tracker report a protest in any of these areas before May 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Global Protest Tracker reports any of these by May 1 2025?", "url_title": "Global Protest Tracker reports any of these by May 1 2025?", "slug": "global-protest-tracker-reports-any-of-these-by-may-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-21T21:38:21.044081Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T21:48:35.114362Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.719698Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-27T21:48:35.114360Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T00:34:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-05T05:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32634, "name": "Flagler College Spring 2025", "type": "community", "slug": "sellers", "description": "This is a forecasting space for Spring 2025 students of Professor Bailey Sellers, POS 332: Political Science Scopes & Methods.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_5VpDCmc.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_pic_CfiDMUz.png", "followers_count": 16, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32634, "name": "Flagler College Spring 2025", "type": "community", "slug": "sellers", "description": "This is a forecasting space for Spring 2025 students of Professor Bailey Sellers, POS 332: Political Science Scopes & Methods.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_5VpDCmc.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_pic_CfiDMUz.png", "followers_count": 16, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31340, "title": "Will the Global Protest Tracker report a protest in any of these areas before May 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-21T21:38:21.044527Z", "open_time": "2025-02-05T05:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-10T21:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-10T21:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T00:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-02T00:42:17.305276Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Carnegie Endowment: \n\nUse Carnegie’s Global Protest Tracker to analyze and compare the triggers, motivations, and other aspects of many of the most significant antigovernment protests since 2017. Designed for researchers, decisionmakers, and journalists, this comprehensive resource helps illustrate how protests impact today’s global politics.\n\nThe most recent protests tracked by the Global Protest Tracker in the countries listed have been: \n\n* Belarus [antiwar protests](https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-referendum-constitutional-changes-lukashenka/31726363.html) February 2022.\n* Cuba [food and power shortages protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2024_Cuban_protests) March 2024.\n* Gaza Strip [anti-Hamas protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gaza_economic_protests) July 2023.\n* Myanmar [Airbus protests](https://www.rfa.org/english/myanmar/2024/10/30/myanmar-protest-airbus-airstrikes/) October 2024.\n* Russia [power cut protest](https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-krasnodar-protest-electricity-blackout-power/33044165.html) July 2024\n* Venezuela [presidential election protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_protests) July 2024", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Carnegie Endowment's [Global Protest Tracker](https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en) reports a protest in one or more of the following places after the launch of this question and before May 1, 2025:\n\n* Belarus\n* Cuba\n* Gaza Strip\n* Myanmar\n* Russia\n* Venezuela", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31816, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742799663.446805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.686 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742799663.446805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.686 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7772942808308781 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0731744161072838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.5402965138243555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.13444868060126633, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5825890001256337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6650402975923998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -99.07464099954112, "peer_score": 45.262384266649896, "coverage": 0.9778208510246889, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9778208510246889, "spot_peer_score": 11.494682876390987, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": -99.07464099954112, "peer_archived_score": 45.262384266649896, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.494682876390987, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Carnegie Endowment: \n\nUse Carnegie’s Global Protest Tracker to analyze and compare the triggers, motivations, and other aspects of many of the most significant antigovernment protests since 2017. Designed for researchers, decisionmakers, and journalists, this comprehensive resource helps illustrate how protests impact today’s global politics.\n\nThe most recent protests tracked by the Global Protest Tracker in the countries listed have been: \n\n* Belarus [antiwar protests](https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-referendum-constitutional-changes-lukashenka/31726363.html) February 2022.\n* Cuba [food and power shortages protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2024_Cuban_protests) March 2024.\n* Gaza Strip [anti-Hamas protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gaza_economic_protests) July 2023.\n* Myanmar [Airbus protests](https://www.rfa.org/english/myanmar/2024/10/30/myanmar-protest-airbus-airstrikes/) October 2024.\n* Russia [power cut protest](https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-krasnodar-protest-electricity-blackout-power/33044165.html) July 2024\n* Venezuela [presidential election protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_protests) July 2024" }, { "id": 31814, "title": "At the end of March 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as \"currently\" blocking access to Twitter/X?", "short_title": "Will Wiki still list all as \"currently\" blocking X?", "url_title": "Will Wiki still list all as \"currently\" blocking X?", "slug": "will-wiki-still-list-all-as-currently-blocking-x", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-21T14:24:54.440961Z", "published_at": "2025-01-21T13:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.946255Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:38:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-21T13:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31338, "title": "At the end of March 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as \"currently\" blocking access to Twitter/X?", "created_at": "2025-01-21T14:24:54.440961Z", "open_time": "2025-01-21T13:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T18:38:56.404192Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists Twitter (also known as X) as currently blocked in China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or around April 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list Twitter/X as currently being blocked in any of those countries, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to April 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome.", "post_id": 31814, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737723165.801944, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.886 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737723165.801944, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.886 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.11399999999999999, 0.886 ], "means": [ 0.8787251978604392 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2064362578314156, 0.0, 1.2462571355730265, 0.17411067864873367, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3543173890644741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 21.866913661226036, "peer_score": 1.294772560960947, "coverage": 0.9001504135467507, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9001504135467507, "spot_peer_score": -1.0400220631131607, "spot_baseline_score": 82.53786038929313, "baseline_archived_score": 21.866913661226036, "peer_archived_score": 1.294772560960947, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.0400220631131607, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 82.53786038929313 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"" }, { "id": 31810, "title": "At the end of March 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as \"currently\" blocking access to Twitter/X?", "short_title": "Will Wiki still list all as \"currently\" blocking X?", "url_title": "Will Wiki still list all as \"currently\" blocking X?", "slug": "will-wiki-still-list-all-as-currently-blocking-x", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-21T14:23:32.036276Z", "published_at": "2025-01-24T13:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.911762Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:39:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-24T13:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31334, "title": "At the end of March 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as \"currently\" blocking access to Twitter/X?", "created_at": "2025-01-21T14:23:32.036276Z", "open_time": "2025-01-24T13:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T18:39:34.358552Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists Twitter (also known as X) as currently blocked in China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or around April 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list Twitter/X as currently being blocked in any of those countries, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to April 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome.", "post_id": 31810, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737727745.595652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737727745.595652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7776545665901634 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3182650263612303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9564687556330993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7327519011836716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.7234704561894825, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.19523450305981643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.28027031937045, "peer_score": -0.4159561422854422, "coverage": 0.8600547802448272, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8600547802448272, "spot_peer_score": -0.7109212275939564, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 61.28027031937045, "peer_archived_score": -0.4159561422854422, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7109212275939564, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"" }, { "id": 31794, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up in January 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-sp-500-index-go-up-in-january-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-21T13:56:24.614038Z", "published_at": "2025-01-23T22:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.504576Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 74, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-23T23:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-23T23:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-11T03:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-23T22:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31318, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up in January 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-21T13:56:24.614038Z", "open_time": "2025-01-23T22:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-23T23:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-23T23:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-11T03:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-11T03:23:10.832796Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-23T23:23:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-23T23:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [Bogleheads investment resource site](https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/S%26P_500_index): \"The S&P 500 index is a market weighted index of 500 U.S. stocks, selected and monitored by Standard and Poors. The index dates back to 1923, when Standard and Poors introduced an index containing 233 companies. The index of 500 stocks was introduced in 1957. The S&P 500 index measures returns of the large cap segment of the U.S. stock market. As of 2020 it comprises about 80% of the U.S. market capitalization of stocks.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the final trading day of January 2025 is higher than that of the final trading day of December 2024.", "fine_print": "The \"close\" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.", "post_id": 31794, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737674102.688202, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.636 ], "centers": [ 0.7075 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737674102.688202, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.636 ], "centers": [ 0.7075 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.2925, 0.7075 ], "means": [ 0.6908949663326733 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9227327919449562, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.0, 0.12369064840410346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5018219694898343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4115069876876143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6858104013661508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 44.6255118717943, "peer_score": 4.986747246049619, "coverage": 0.8790454528066847, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8790454528066847, "spot_peer_score": 3.925178562326084, "spot_baseline_score": 50.080205305715765, "baseline_archived_score": 44.6255118717943, "peer_archived_score": 4.986747246049619, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.925178562326084, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 50.080205305715765 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [Bogleheads investment resource site](https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/S%26P_500_index): \"The S&P 500 index is a market weighted index of 500 U.S. stocks, selected and monitored by Standard and Poors. The index dates back to 1923, when Standard and Poors introduced an index containing 233 companies. The index of 500 stocks was introduced in 1957. The S&P 500 index measures returns of the large cap segment of the U.S. stock market. As of 2020 it comprises about 80% of the U.S. market capitalization of stocks.\"" }, { "id": 31771, "title": "Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?", "short_title": "TikTok available for download in the US before Apr 5, 2025?", "url_title": "TikTok available for download in the US before Apr 5, 2025?", "slug": "tiktok-available-for-download-in-the-us-before-apr-5-2025", "author_id": 242075, "author_username": "guffia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-19T14:53:44.485670Z", "published_at": "2025-01-24T18:35:58.817644Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.515732Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-24T18:35:58.817642Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T00:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-05T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-14T00:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31302, "title": "Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-19T14:53:44.486093Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-30T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-05T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-14T00:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-14T03:22:17.457699Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T00:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States Congress [passed a law](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-tiktok-being-banned-supreme-court-congress/) that bans TikTok from the US starting January 20, 2025, but President Trump [issued an executive order](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-executive-order-trump-0bbae2d2d6f102944f41bb75ad40ce69) delaying the implementation of the ban for 75 days. has claimed that he will overturn the ban. The question is whether or not he will be successful in doing so over the first few months of his presidency.\n\nSee also from Forbes: [When Will TikTok Be Back In App Stores? What Could Happen Without Updates](https://www.forbes.com/sites/monicamercuri/2025/01/22/when-will-tiktok-be-back-in-app-stores-what-could-happen-without-updates/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point after January 25, 2025 and before April 5, 2025, TikTok is available for download in the US from both the App Store and Google Play without the use of VPNs or other technical workarounds.", "fine_print": "* If the app is simultaneously available for any amount of time from both locations and then becomes unavailable again, this question will still resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 31771, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739502917.798973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739502917.798973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6432167389294744 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.10474330423176159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24643098071767555, 0.0, 8.780989364669577e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052198277224234445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011779943533372503, 0.1477921671990804, 0.0, 7.09341805741482e-05, 4.28512682904026e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030708915492302515, 0.0028123176771588064, 1.4960581790068042, 0.0, 0.07246332315522436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004577044086754584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019924238994422132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017910318559305797, 0.9130192311132204, 0.4809472323689227, 0.0, 0.4749883006960818, 0.057630086050086585, 1.6859195590546874, 0.642943082945944, 0.6211904113182519, 0.16745122519511862, 0.0, 0.36837091271438355, 0.0021701220406957554, 0.5436300954273587, 0.001242280334280596, 0.0, 0.6502203064543713, 0.7531087956788163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.712771075712915, 0.0, 0.013346621940314793, 0.12963508971432688, 0.01538975860118121, 0.22231629648602017, 0.8073570884778424, 0.18771289180408146, 0.25936482604816236, 0.005340758482102225, 0.48646160255658677, 0.008313902856466732, 0.5120257724441908, 0.0959729363316451, 0.14992092892055564, 1.129366804247336, 0.0, 0.007196420551877343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39266873240911526, 0.0, 0.206614088636071, 0.0, 0.3498796900596441, 0.39944511119599396, 0.20356150266418993, 0.0016538302536686447, 0.06495855915458512, 0.0, 0.008926255305896994, 0.0, 0.9183963645987357, 0.0899056400174347, 0.0006636934627600087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.151328458647026 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 7.7977443995413, "peer_score": 10.691949611680512, "coverage": 0.27685838700561993, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999745580056413, "spot_peer_score": 44.550799934380045, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 7.7977443995413, "peer_archived_score": 10.691949611680512, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.550799934380045, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 442, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States Congress [passed a law](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-tiktok-being-banned-supreme-court-congress/) that bans TikTok from the US starting January 20, 2025, but President Trump [issued an executive order](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-executive-order-trump-0bbae2d2d6f102944f41bb75ad40ce69) delaying the implementation of the ban for 75 days. has claimed that he will overturn the ban. The question is whether or not he will be successful in doing so over the first few months of his presidency.\n\nSee also from Forbes: [When Will TikTok Be Back In App Stores? What Could Happen Without Updates](https://www.forbes.com/sites/monicamercuri/2025/01/22/when-will-tiktok-be-back-in-app-stores-what-could-happen-without-updates/)" }, { "id": 31764, "title": "Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "4th person to solve Rubik's cube in <3.44s by Mar 31, 2025?", "url_title": "4th person to solve Rubik's cube in <3.44s by Mar 31, 2025?", "slug": "4th-person-to-solve-rubiks-cube-in-344s-by-mar-31-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-18T00:40:48.361284Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T00:00:11.073436Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.720776Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T00:00:11.073434Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-30T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-30T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T19:02:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 978, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T00:51:15.310393Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T00:51:15.310393Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31295, "title": "Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-18T00:40:48.361663Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T19:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T19:04:33.631495Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-30T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe Rubik's Cube was invented in 1974, released in 1980, and had its first world 'speedcubing' championship [just 8 years later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speedcubing#History). The winner achieved a world record of 22.95 seconds. Since then, [17 more people](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) have held this record, lowering the time to below 4 seconds. Speedcubers use memorized algorithms to solve the Rubik's Cube and top performances rely on choosing the fastest option and executing it flawlessly.\n\nAs of January 17, 2025, three performances are separated by the rest. While 20 people [have achieved](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) a time below 4s, only 3 have achieved one below 3.44s:\n\n* Max Park in 2023 (3.13s)\n* Ruihang Xu (许瑞航) in 2024 (3.24s)\n* Yiheng Wang (王艺衡) in 2024 (3.27s)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, the [World Cube Association](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) reports that a person besides Max Park, Ruihang Xu, and Yiheng Wang has achieved a single time below 3.44s at solving the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube at an [official event](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/competitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743324683.172977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 975, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743324683.172977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 975, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.020350741068729538 ], "histogram": [ [ 49.83229708607733, 5.1987667547764085, 0.4992229124519457, 0.5978309247825452, 0.11910858648491145, 0.1428339945201196, 0.9601931843584635, 0.025234005939466835, 0.05657439798494715, 0.030157008401200953, 0.6486047017731581, 1.0559522347339065, 0.012126565612649323, 1.0699469238912141e-05, 0.0009548705830693793, 0.014263798031369405, 0.00010442535426686476, 7.41982680947358e-05, 0.08001296904140616, 0.002816910935604201, 0.023533552550240554, 0.003918590661200881, 8.312532639010901e-06, 0.007854393131227376, 0.0041258065111166595, 0.06765249358413554, 0.0031055046998232543, 3.687728218460756e-12, 1.0003247686171994, 0.0, 0.002831966256323043, 0.04761498689896383, 3.292330931421246e-06, 0.0008107554754127307, 3.374965226169209e-05, 0.0034437954434185245, 0.0012190438402646725, 3.629510017848922e-05, 0.00016846093104692976, 0.05198478557446837, 0.0004112243683644663, 0.0, 0.00096772549215846, 0.0, 4.299834108956206e-06, 9.648702519165227e-05, 0.0, 0.003871959048251289, 0.0, 0.0006160148938679276, 0.004826220161441902, 5.788716145802069e-08, 0.0, 3.865878718664984e-06, 0.0, 0.0006295111697746994, 0.0, 0.008342587944339603, 5.239155248437032e-07, 0.0, 0.002837146877655074, 7.755056635954334e-07, 2.8056893355816995e-11, 9.605077359925487e-08, 2.0991166608013362e-07, 0.003345194669164383, 3.315487107304704e-05, 0.002720302505372618, 0.00017662290415193402, 0.0008423645435321035, 0.013834369777899428, 0.0035914402638308794, 0.00021850542406649142, 0.004804915346434471, 1.4019626233594563e-05, 0.00045859522214155776, 0.00011037294399457666, 0.0015240923319467061, 4.251309023240335e-08, 0.0005663457401586507, 0.00029273249065004504, 1.7815660846511083e-07, 0.00013103433540584107, 0.0, 0.0004682295299347421, 0.0004121123200003194, 2.766605605427358e-07, 0.0006700120372900432, 0.0, 0.0007193572764243967, 1.6713054218177967e-07, 2.1327771642212446e-05, 0.0, 0.00687169263061066, 0.0, 0.001863941093696704, 0.0, 6.447344930915327e-07, 0.0, 0.3892028458752786 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.95930165374196, "peer_score": 43.95707045064105, "coverage": 0.9999802910040759, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999802910040759, "spot_peer_score": 42.16772563562926, "spot_baseline_score": 77.56827017390599, "baseline_archived_score": 85.95930165374196, "peer_archived_score": 43.95707045064105, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.16772563562926, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 77.56827017390599 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2948, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe Rubik's Cube was invented in 1974, released in 1980, and had its first world 'speedcubing' championship [just 8 years later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speedcubing#History). The winner achieved a world record of 22.95 seconds. Since then, [17 more people](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) have held this record, lowering the time to below 4 seconds. Speedcubers use memorized algorithms to solve the Rubik's Cube and top performances rely on choosing the fastest option and executing it flawlessly.\n\nAs of January 17, 2025, three performances are separated by the rest. While 20 people [have achieved](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) a time below 4s, only 3 have achieved one below 3.44s:\n\n* Max Park in 2023 (3.13s)\n* Ruihang Xu (许瑞航) in 2024 (3.24s)\n* Yiheng Wang (王艺衡) in 2024 (3.27s)" }, { "id": 31762, "title": "Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of April 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-eric-adams-be-mayor-of-new-york-city-on-the-1st-of-april-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-17T19:21:47.590742Z", "published_at": "2025-01-19T19:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.375920Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-22T20:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-22T20:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:36:00Z", 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"scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-22T20:19:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-22T20:19:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve 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"latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021.\n" }, { "id": 31756, "title": "Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of April 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-eric-adams-be-mayor-of-new-york-city-on-the-1st-of-april-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-17T19:20:20.496831Z", "published_at": 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"score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31288, "title": "Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of April 2025?", 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The product contains soy, a known allergen, which is not declared on the product label.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Pork Dynasty Inc.'s Ready-to-Eat Fried Pork Skin Products is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/pork-dynasty-inc--recalls-ready-eat-fried-pork-skin-products-due-misbranding-and) is accessed by Metaculus after February 28, 2025. 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The product contains soy, a known allergen, which is not declared on the product label.\"" }, { "id": 31738, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before March 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bubble-in-the-magnificent-seven-pop-before-march-28-2025", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-17T19:06:22.070728Z", "published_at": "2025-01-17T02:27:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.082075Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T23:49:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-17T02:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31270, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before March 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-17T19:06:22.070728Z", "open_time": "2025-01-17T02:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T23:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-28T23:59:03.885137Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if at any point between the open of this question and before March 28, 2025, shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high.", "fine_print": "In case the text above isn't clear enough, an example:\n\nIf Stock X's all-time high is $1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below $500.\nPositive resolution requires that at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks close down >50% from their all time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes, but only counts as one out of the seven companies. Alphabet counts if either of its two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) is at least 50% below its all-time high.\n\nSo if GOOG is down 51% and GOOGL is down 49% and 3 other stocks in the Magnificent Seven are down >50% then this question resolves positive.", "post_id": 31738, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737306769.320623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.014 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.016 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737306769.320623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.014 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.016 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.986, 0.014 ], "means": [ 0.01608481591599722 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9579091798657733, 2.2164137405477744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 72.67471815072349, "peer_score": 0.011279149816312891, "coverage": 0.7415935026329221, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.7415935026329221, "spot_peer_score": 0.043472400950014416, "spot_baseline_score": 97.96595517158244, "baseline_archived_score": 72.67471815072349, "peer_archived_score": 0.011279149816312891, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.043472400950014416, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.96595517158244 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow." }, { "id": 31732, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before March 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bubble-in-the-magnificent-seven-pop-before-march-28-2025", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-17T19:02:43.940868Z", "published_at": "2025-01-20T02:27:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.286605Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:40:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-20T02:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31264, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before March 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-17T19:02:43.940868Z", "open_time": "2025-01-20T02:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T18:41:56.260531Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if at any point between the open of this question and before March 28, 2025, shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high.", "fine_print": "In case the text above isn't clear enough, an example:\n\nIf Stock X's all-time high is $1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below $500.\nPositive resolution requires that at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks close down >50% from their all time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes, but only counts as one out of the seven companies. Alphabet counts if either of its two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) is at least 50% below its all-time high.\n\nSo if GOOG is down 51% and GOOGL is down 49% and 3 other stocks in the Magnificent Seven are down >50% then this question resolves positive.", "post_id": 31732, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737343002.60057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737343002.60057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.23766710411041844 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 1.550027481530686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6108167385986483, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0302020484747556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.88324000530821, "peer_score": 3.8545214210129104, "coverage": 0.9251180480586157, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9251180480586157, "spot_peer_score": 7.7484369221033, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 70.88324000530821, "peer_archived_score": 3.8545214210129104, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.7484369221033, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow." }, { "id": 31713, "title": "Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?", "short_title": "Will an AGI be trained on cheap hardware before 2040?", "url_title": "Will an AGI be trained on cheap hardware before 2040?", "slug": "will-an-agi-be-trained-on-cheap-hardware-before-2040", "author_id": 145394, "author_username": "Haiku", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-16T22:56:54.963939Z", "published_at": "2025-03-18T12:41:17.778279Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.619774Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-18T12:41:17.778277Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-19T12:40:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31249, "title": "Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?", "created_at": "2025-01-16T22:56:54.964454Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T12:40:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-23T12:40:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-23T12:40:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many experts expect Artificial General Intelligence—AI with general capabilities broadly equivalent or superior to those of human intelligence—to arrive [<u>relatively soon</u>](https://aisafety.info/questions/5633/). Such a powerful technology is expected to come with [<u>risks</u>](https://www.safe.ai/work/statement-on-ai-risk). Some [<u>proposed mitigations</u>](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.08797) of these risks rely on governance of compute and compute supply chains. If AGI becomes trainable on small amounts of widely available hardware, these interventions may not work, or may be viable only with the addition of extreme measures.\n\nThis question tracks the likelihood that small actors will be able to create or independently reproduce AGI before 2040.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2040, an AGI (as defined by [<u>this question</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)) is created fulfilling both of the following conditions:\n\n* Total technical costs for training the AGI, including hardware and electricity costs, do not exceed \\$100,000 in 2025 USD. Hardware costs correspond to the total market value of the hardware at time of use. The cost of experimental runs before the final runs used to train the AGI will not be included.\n* The hardware is commercially available to individual purchasers.\n\nThe training can either be from scratch or just the fine-tuning of an open source base model. In the latter case, the base model must uncontroversially *not* meet the given definition of AGI and the fine-tuning must be done by a distinct, separate actor.", "fine_print": "* The training must not have utilized cloud compute.\n* Hardware modifications such as overclocking and custom cooling are allowed, as is training on multiple devices, so long as the total cost stays below the limit.\n* Specialized hardware and alternative computing regimes such as quantum, photonic, or analog computing can qualify, so long as they are commercially available and meet the other criteria.\n* Human resources costs don't count as technical costs.\n* If humanity is disempowered or rendered extinct by AI before the criteria are fulfilled, this question will be **annulled**. AI-caused extinction or disempowerment that is a *result* of the criteria being fulfilled does not prevent a **Yes** resolution.\n* If an advanced AI system is created which acts (or is used) to prevent the creation of AGI by individuals and small actors regardless of hardware limits (e.g. through an extreme degree of global power concentration, surveillance, and control, or by destroying all capable hardware -- i.e. a \"Pivotal Act\"), this question will be **annulled**.\n* This question is ultimately about the (in)viability of AI governance mechanisms that rely on supply chain governance. When in doubt, the question should be interpreted in that context.", "post_id": 31713, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757083694.957998, "end_time": 1783419706.6, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757083694.957998, "end_time": 1783419706.6, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.1011345126075857 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 2.0566413615030195, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Many experts expect Artificial General Intelligence—AI with general capabilities broadly equivalent or superior to those of human intelligence—to arrive [<u>relatively soon</u>](https://aisafety.info/questions/5633/). Such a powerful technology is expected to come with [<u>risks</u>](https://www.safe.ai/work/statement-on-ai-risk). Some [<u>proposed mitigations</u>](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.08797) of these risks rely on governance of compute and compute supply chains. If AGI becomes trainable on small amounts of widely available hardware, these interventions may not work, or may be viable only with the addition of extreme measures.\n\nThis question tracks the likelihood that small actors will be able to create or independently reproduce AGI before 2040." }, { "id": 31712, "title": "Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?", "short_title": "AI labs collaborate at least a little on safety in 2030?", "url_title": "AI labs collaborate at least a little on safety in 2030?", "slug": "ai-labs-collaborate-at-least-a-little-on-safety-in-2030", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-16T21:12:34.082565Z", "published_at": "2025-01-23T15:19:56.832948Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.207998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-23T15:19:56.832945Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "index": [ { "id": 32633, "type": "index", "name": "AGI 2030 Readiness Index", "slug": "agi-readiness-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/thecurve-bg_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-24T15:44:52Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T15:45:07Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-14T19:32:58.995931Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T01:27:16.640322Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32633, "type": "index", "name": "AGI 2030 Readiness Index", "slug": "agi-readiness-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/thecurve-bg_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-24T15:44:52Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T15:45:07Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-14T19:32:58.995931Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T01:27:16.640322Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31248, "title": "Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2025-01-16T21:12:34.082896Z", "open_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[<u>AI alignment</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_alignment) is the process of ensuring that an AI follows the goals intended by its creators and [<u>minimising existential risk</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence). Current approaches to align frontier AI models largely utilise [<u>reinforcement learning from human feedback</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning_from_human_feedback) (RLHF), where an AI’s outputs are scored by humans or automated systems and the AI is fine-tuned to avoid negative scores. These approaches have seen broad success and are used by all major AI companies. However, it is unclear if RLHF will be similarly successful in aligning future systems that will potentially be significantly more powerful as, for example, [<u>it does not appear able</u>](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-sleeper-agents) to root out all forms of deception.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2030, every active frontier AI lab is collaborating with at least one other distinct frontier AI lab in AI safety or alignment research, according to the latest reports by [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If, in the opinion of Metaculus admins, these do not suggest an ongoing collaboration for at least one active frontier AI lab on January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* “AI safety or alignment research” will be interpreted broadly and will include all research on preventing unwanted outputs from AI models.\n* “Collaborating” will be interpreted broadly and will include scenarios in which two AI labs have an established relationship and are frequently exchanging insights on AI safety and alignment, even if they are not working together on the problem.\n* A frontier AI lab is a lab that has released an AI model with training compute FLOPs within one order of magnitude of the highest number of FLOPs used to train an AI model, as estimated by Epoch ΑΙ in its[ <u>Large-Scale AI Models tracker</u>](https://epoch.ai/data/large-scale-ai-models) or other credible sources on January 1, 2030.\n* A frontier AI lab is considered active if credible sources suggest it is still working on creating AI models.\n* Two frontier AI labs are considered distinct if they have released different frontier AI models and have not merged since then, according to credible sources.", "post_id": 31712, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757811137.578662, "end_time": 1758296760.671, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757811137.578662, "end_time": 1758296760.671, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.24814342347498408 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.32677805160011447, 0.5452302599830106, 0.7757792944403119, 0.09570280051650464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10338307578442248, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.43131426209606216, 0.36011312136081397, 0.5584580948134545, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 2.099101529283229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[<u>AI alignment</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_alignment) is the process of ensuring that an AI follows the goals intended by its creators and [<u>minimising existential risk</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence). Current approaches to align frontier AI models largely utilise [<u>reinforcement learning from human feedback</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning_from_human_feedback) (RLHF), where an AI’s outputs are scored by humans or automated systems and the AI is fine-tuned to avoid negative scores. These approaches have seen broad success and are used by all major AI companies. However, it is unclear if RLHF will be similarly successful in aligning future systems that will potentially be significantly more powerful as, for example, [<u>it does not appear able</u>](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-sleeper-agents) to root out all forms of deception." }, { "id": 31711, "title": "Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?", "short_title": "AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?", "url_title": "AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?", "slug": "ai-system-beat-human-pros-in-forecasting-tournament-by-2030", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-16T21:05:07.800203Z", "published_at": "2025-01-23T15:19:10.137371Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T01:27:15.822065Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-23T15:19:10.137367Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "index": [ { "id": 32633, "type": "index", "name": "AGI 2030 Readiness Index", "slug": "agi-readiness-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/thecurve-bg_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-24T15:44:52Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T15:45:07Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-14T19:32:58.995931Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T01:27:16.640322Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32633, "type": "index", "name": "AGI 2030 Readiness Index", "slug": "agi-readiness-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/thecurve-bg_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-24T15:44:52Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T15:45:07Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-14T19:32:58.995931Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T01:27:16.640322Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31247, "title": "Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-01-16T21:05:07.800541Z", "open_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Current](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qZqvBLvR5hX9sEkjR/comparing-top-forecasters-and-domain-experts#Conclusions) [evidence](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mi2-AeTLjpM) shows that the best generalist forecasters are slightly better than field experts in forecasting future events of societal interest. An AI system exhibiting similar forecasting skill might show that it understands complex systems, including political and social systems, and could potentially be used to effectively control such systems in the future, at or beyond the edge of our current understanding.\n\nIn 2024, Metaculus started running the [AI Benchmark tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/), designed to benchmark the proficiency of LLMs at predicting world events against top human forecasters on a large set of questions. The results from the first iteration of this tournament [were disappointing for the bots](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28784/aibq3results/), as the human forecaster median outperformed every single one of the 34 bots that forecasted on enough questions. A further investigation showed that neither GPT-4o nor o1 [were very scope sensitive](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/30889/self-consistency-of-gpt4o-vs-o1-preview/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a single AI system outperforms a team of top human forecasters in a forecasting tournament before January 1, 2030.\n\nIf this question has not resolved as **Yes** and no such comparison has been made between AIs and top human forecasters in the two year period 2028-2029, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nIf at least one comparison has been made in the two year period 2028-2029, but no AI has outperformed a team of top human forecasters before January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* \"Top human forecasters\" are defined as Metaculus Pro forecasters, Good Judgement Superforecasters, the top forecasters of another established forecasting platform, or forecasters from established forecasting teams or organisations (e.g. [Samotsvety Forecasting](https://samotsvety.org/), [Swift Centre](https://www.swiftcentre.org/)) The forecasters have to participate as a team in that tournament (e.g., sharing information and ways of thinking about the question). Simply aggregating over top forecasters that do not participate as a team will not count.\n* Outperforming the team of forecasters means that the AI scores better than a predefined and theoretically motivated aggregation of all top human forecasts (e.g., the median) using a predefined [proper scoring rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoring_rule) in a head-to-head forecasting tournament (i.e., they must be evaluated on the same set of questions). Humans and AI must have made their predictions in the same general timeframe (e.g., a postdiction tournament where an AI predicts on questions that have already been resolved would not count).\n* A \"single AI system\" could consist of a single AI model or a collection of them, as long as it submits one single forecast per question (or one single forecast per timepoint per question for questions that have a duration) for the tournament.\n* The comparison between the AI system and human forecasters must involve at least 50 questions.\n* The results must correct for multiple comparisons in some way. This could be through [statistical methods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family-wise_error_rate#Controlling_procedures) or by performing only one final comparison (e.g., comparing the AIs on one set of questions and comparing the best AI with the human forecasters on another set of questions).\n* Any results that [appear to have](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGkRcHqatmPkvpGLq/contra-papers-claiming-superhuman-ai-forecasting) significant methodological flaws or data quality issues, or that do not explain their methodology as judged by Metaculus may be excluded from consideration.\n\nIf no such comparison has been made between AIs and top human forecasters in the two year period 2028-2029, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 31711, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757899625.254885, "end_time": 1758011227.508339, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757899625.254885, "end_time": 1758011227.508339, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.08999999999999997, 0.91 ], "means": [ 0.8681533714608342 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.04492986066620649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5350252150826518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00902096530357109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05870557476045682, 0.18119093168767203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028841894683954285, 0.0, 0.0033186276747047033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49188534575133525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07538866801196019, 0.7353329517027717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33485172510246286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.688060215140873, 3.2784848777133213, 0.38150119878791605, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8128891436517245, 0.4925280170881631, 0.4265563956284465, 0.9277858371259815, 0.4128212119651449 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 191, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Current](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qZqvBLvR5hX9sEkjR/comparing-top-forecasters-and-domain-experts#Conclusions) [evidence](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mi2-AeTLjpM) shows that the best generalist forecasters are slightly better than field experts in forecasting future events of societal interest. An AI system exhibiting similar forecasting skill might show that it understands complex systems, including political and social systems, and could potentially be used to effectively control such systems in the future, at or beyond the edge of our current understanding.\n\nIn 2024, Metaculus started running the [AI Benchmark tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/), designed to benchmark the proficiency of LLMs at predicting world events against top human forecasters on a large set of questions. The results from the first iteration of this tournament [were disappointing for the bots](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28784/aibq3results/), as the human forecaster median outperformed every single one of the 34 bots that forecasted on enough questions. A further investigation showed that neither GPT-4o nor o1 [were very scope sensitive](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/30889/self-consistency-of-gpt4o-vs-o1-preview/)." }, { "id": 31710, "title": "Will unemployed US citizens be provided with average benefits of at least $1,000 per month in 2030?", "short_title": "Unemployed citizens given $1,000 per month in 2030?", "url_title": "Unemployed citizens given $1,000 per month in 2030?", "slug": "unemployed-citizens-given-1000-per-month-in-2030", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-16T20:59:31.018823Z", "published_at": "2025-01-23T15:19:43.484009Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.881838Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-23T15:19:43.484006Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "index": [ { "id": 32633, "type": "index", "name": "AGI 2030 Readiness Index", "slug": "agi-readiness-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/thecurve-bg_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-24T15:44:52Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T15:45:07Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-14T19:32:58.995931Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T01:27:16.640322Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32633, "type": "index", "name": "AGI 2030 Readiness Index", "slug": "agi-readiness-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/thecurve-bg_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-24T15:44:52Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T15:45:07Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-14T19:32:58.995931Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T01:27:16.640322Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31246, "title": "Will unemployed US citizens be provided with average benefits of at least $1,000 per month in 2030?", "created_at": "2025-01-16T20:59:31.019160Z", "open_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to a [report](https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/generative-ai-and-the-future-of-work-in-america) by McKinsey & Company, in 2030, up to 30% of the labor hours that were worked in 2023 might be automated, due not only to momentums already in place at the time but also to the potential rapid rise of generative AI: \n\n> Generative AI can be used to write code, design products, create marketing content and strategies, streamline operations, analyze legal documents, provide customer service via chatbots, and even accelerate scientific discovery. It can be used on its own or with “humans in the loop”; the latter is more likely at present, given its current level of maturity.\n\nThe biggest expected job losses due to increased automation and the rapid rise of generative AI include people who were working in 2023 in food service occupations, bookkeeping, customer service, receptionists, administrative assistants and cashiers. On the other hand, some of this could be offset by an aging population driving increased demand for human healthcare workers, in every category from nursing to healthcare technicians to wellness workers. Additionally, there will be enormous demand tailwinds for tech workers to work in sectors such as banking and insurance that are undergoing massive digital transformation. The net result of all of these automation and AI disruptions, according to McKinsey, could be 11.8 million workers needing to move into different lines of work before 2030.\n\nAccording to a [report](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-does-unemployment-insurance-work-and-how-is-it-changing-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic/) from the Brookings Institution, during normal times, unemployment insurance, normally covered by the 50 states, provides a replacement for 35%-50% of lost wages, up to a cap set by each state. Some states are more generous than others, with Massachusetts paying an average of \\$550 per week, while Mississippi pays an average of \\$215 per week.\n\nHowever, there is precedent for increased unemployment benefits under extraordinary times, such as recessions or, according to Brookings, most recently during the COVID-19 pandemic: \n\n> The Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) program added \\$600 per week to state-funded unemployment benefits, financed by the federal government. That expansion expired on July 31, 2020. In December 2020, Congress voted to provide expanded benefit payments of \\$300 per week through March 12, 2021. The American Rescue Plan (ARP) extended that \\$300 per week increase in unemployment insurance payments until September 6, 2021. \n\nFor 2020, at the resolution source FRED reports \\$528.59 billion in government social benefits for unemployment and an annual average unemployment level of 12.952 million. This came to an average benefit per worker of \\$3,400.95 per month. For 2021, this came to \\$3,065.20 per month. For 2022, this was \\$330.98 per month, and for 2023, this was \\$455.14 per month.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the average US government unemployment insurance social benefits reach \\$1,000 per month in 2030. This will be determined by two resolution sources maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED):\n\n1. The annual average value, in billions of dollars, of [Government social benefits: to persons: Federal: Benefits from social insurance funds: Unemployment insurance](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W825RC1#0) (hereafter W825RC1). INSTRUCTIONS: Click on Edit Graph and modify frequency to Annual. Ensure that the Aggregation method is set to Average.\n2. The annual average [Unemployment Level](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNEMPLOY#0) (hereafter UNEMPLOY) in thousands of persons. INSTRUCTIONS: Click on Edit Graph and modify frequency to Annual. Ensure that the Aggregation method is set to Average.\n\nIn order to calculate the average monthly benefits per unemployed worker, the formula for the resolution value is W825RC1 divided by UNEMPLOY divided by 12. If that amount is greater than or equal to \\$1,000 for 2030, this question resolves as **Yes**. If it is less than \\$1,000, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The resolution value will not be adjusted for inflation. \n\nIn case of issues with either resolution source, Metaculus may name an alternative [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), as long as the methodology is substantially equivalent; if Admins decide to pursue this route, a clarification would be made. If none can be found, this question may be annulled. Please see Metaculus’s ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 31710, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757708862.852483, "end_time": 1758194733.512223, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757708862.852483, "end_time": 1758194733.512223, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.3052648850178616 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7097955058299374, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.8682671503582153, 0.6899464957334956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.98714116529552, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06627670137989172, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.9291329409453964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.5090028279124723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.844622286161405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0059836088040792 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to a [report](https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/generative-ai-and-the-future-of-work-in-america) by McKinsey & Company, in 2030, up to 30% of the labor hours that were worked in 2023 might be automated, due not only to momentums already in place at the time but also to the potential rapid rise of generative AI: \n\n> Generative AI can be used to write code, design products, create marketing content and strategies, streamline operations, analyze legal documents, provide customer service via chatbots, and even accelerate scientific discovery. It can be used on its own or with “humans in the loop”; the latter is more likely at present, given its current level of maturity.\n\nThe biggest expected job losses due to increased automation and the rapid rise of generative AI include people who were working in 2023 in food service occupations, bookkeeping, customer service, receptionists, administrative assistants and cashiers. On the other hand, some of this could be offset by an aging population driving increased demand for human healthcare workers, in every category from nursing to healthcare technicians to wellness workers. Additionally, there will be enormous demand tailwinds for tech workers to work in sectors such as banking and insurance that are undergoing massive digital transformation. The net result of all of these automation and AI disruptions, according to McKinsey, could be 11.8 million workers needing to move into different lines of work before 2030.\n\nAccording to a [report](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-does-unemployment-insurance-work-and-how-is-it-changing-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic/) from the Brookings Institution, during normal times, unemployment insurance, normally covered by the 50 states, provides a replacement for 35%-50% of lost wages, up to a cap set by each state. Some states are more generous than others, with Massachusetts paying an average of \\$550 per week, while Mississippi pays an average of \\$215 per week.\n\nHowever, there is precedent for increased unemployment benefits under extraordinary times, such as recessions or, according to Brookings, most recently during the COVID-19 pandemic: \n\n> The Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) program added \\$600 per week to state-funded unemployment benefits, financed by the federal government. That expansion expired on July 31, 2020. In December 2020, Congress voted to provide expanded benefit payments of \\$300 per week through March 12, 2021. The American Rescue Plan (ARP) extended that \\$300 per week increase in unemployment insurance payments until September 6, 2021. \n\nFor 2020, at the resolution source FRED reports \\$528.59 billion in government social benefits for unemployment and an annual average unemployment level of 12.952 million. This came to an average benefit per worker of \\$3,400.95 per month. For 2021, this came to \\$3,065.20 per month. For 2022, this was \\$330.98 per month, and for 2023, this was \\$455.14 per month." }, { "id": 31708, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before May 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Successful coup in Africa/LatAm by May 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Successful coup in Africa/LatAm by May 1, 2025?", "slug": "successful-coup-in-africalatam-by-may-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-16T20:52:07.404397Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T21:46:21.337819Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.916791Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-27T21:46:21.337817Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T23:38:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-05T05:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32634, "name": "Flagler College Spring 2025", "type": "community", "slug": "sellers", "description": "This is a forecasting space for Spring 2025 students of Professor Bailey Sellers, POS 332: Political Science Scopes & Methods.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_5VpDCmc.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_pic_CfiDMUz.png", "followers_count": 16, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32634, "name": "Flagler College Spring 2025", "type": "community", "slug": "sellers", "description": "This is a forecasting space for Spring 2025 students of Professor Bailey Sellers, POS 332: Political Science Scopes & Methods.", "order": 0, "header_image": 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"2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any country on the African continent or Latin America before May 1, 2025, according to credible media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\n\nA coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. \n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant resistance to their authority has ceased. \n\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.", "post_id": 31708, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744365204.696776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744365204.696776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 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37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 42.60582083259713, "peer_archived_score": 4.9921440796957945, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.008541534707312, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 31691, "title": "Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Bayrou Out as PM of France Before March 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Bayrou Out as PM of France Before March 31, 2025?", "slug": "bayrou-out-as-pm-of-france-before-march-31-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-15T22:07:03.165728Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T23:43:51.434981Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.373613Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-30T23:43:51.434979Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T19:02:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 880, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31238, "title": "Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-15T22:07:03.166055Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T19:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T19:02:54.130722Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nFrance held a [legislative election in June and July 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election), which resulted in [three political factions](https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/what-does-frances-political-instability-mean-europe) vying for power. The result has increased the instability of government leadership in France. France has had [six prime ministers in the past seven years](https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/decoding-france-frances-unprecedented-crisis), with four of those [serving](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_France#20th_century_%E2%80%93_21st_century) during 2024. The current Prime Minister, [François Bayrou](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Bayrou), was appointed by President [Emmanuel Macron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) after Bayrou's predecessor, [Michel Barnier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Barnier), was ousted in a vote of no confidence. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, either of the following has occurred to remove François Bayrou from the position of French Prime Minister:\n\n* A motion of no confidence is passed in the French parliament.\n* Bayrou has resigned or otherwise ceased to hold the position of Prime Minister.", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve as **Yes** once a motion of no confidence has been passed or Bayrou's resignation is announced, later events are immaterial, including if Bayrou would remain on temporarily as Prime Minister, caretaker, or similar, or a resignation is later withdrawn.\n* Temporary leave or suspension of duties is not sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes.** For example, if Bayrou takes medical leave that results in an acting Prime Minister being appointed, that will **not** be sufficient.", "post_id": 31691, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743371293.688728, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 876, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743371293.688728, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 876, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005373761776626499 ], "histogram": [ [ 52.276662858448304, 3.3302463679616183, 0.1989930292168823, 0.18068083945092728, 0.003228363276049414, 0.49135149747013446, 0.001996918871592549, 0.09304207431390236, 1.1035280420245127e-06, 0.001764663221776776, 0.050274214037070275, 9.257345699678741e-05, 1.3672831929903756e-05, 0.008245375555031994, 0.8586161804843496, 0.062089515676643586, 0.004356748057957126, 5.078187597360276e-07, 0.015644581195235725, 0.0254380142299819, 0.07204118293344924, 1.0510215636499877e-07, 0.0008993249007599738, 1.524329450636653e-11, 6.157622182795353e-05, 0.0004533539506272572, 0.00011128727443005868, 1.0959130053805748e-07, 0.0031606812629702058, 0.0, 4.788250330988365e-05, 1.7505846101742512e-09, 0.00858436871098261, 0.0003994545715359444, 0.0, 1.1659830276936014e-09, 3.043523090239282e-08, 8.246063782866764e-11, 0.0009194863667144694, 1.4612827200763198e-07, 2.196928768910502e-05, 4.57587747001226e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4912089376763062e-09, 1.8455948612599946e-09, 4.092876115598631e-05, 0.0, 3.417251223067272e-05, 6.791580155303592e-05, 1.0235313784993178e-06, 5.789896847429192e-09, 0.0, 5.104524720546848e-08, 0.0, 7.642493635697106e-12, 0.0, 2.0822913138727914e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1010698704841164e-10, 9.916278353478474e-07, 0.00021794591170035742, 5.514278246730971e-10, 1.0637531230132405e-10, 0.00034795923915139146, 0.0, 0.001334703076632827, 1.1988392550201905e-09, 1.7506846428984258e-07, 3.379270790935966e-08, 2.374954189923168e-08, 0.00014883939429745209, 0.00010343621980087661, 3.804973531414169e-13, 1.624641798426446e-08, 0.0, 1.3141473361683706e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.395266683036472e-07, 1.0892162961810661e-07, 6.134333168934975e-11, 0.0, 1.3684990345157362e-11, 0.0, 1.3887046012391818e-05, 0.0, 1.5414110842689282e-11, 0.0, 3.490562991501126e-06, 3.5782012433086356e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.3932751182783695e-08, 1.722134140869633e-05, 0.004200208927581206, 0.0, 1.4718303643545109e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.16464356215192, "peer_score": 33.266188433107736, "coverage": 0.9999744641674967, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999744641674967, "spot_peer_score": 50.82754249560105, "spot_baseline_score": 60.40713236688608, "baseline_archived_score": 96.16464356215192, "peer_archived_score": 33.266188433107736, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 50.82754249560105, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.40713236688608 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2773, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nFrance held a [legislative election in June and July 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election), which resulted in [three political factions](https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/what-does-frances-political-instability-mean-europe) vying for power. The result has increased the instability of government leadership in France. France has had [six prime ministers in the past seven years](https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/decoding-france-frances-unprecedented-crisis), with four of those [serving](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_France#20th_century_%E2%80%93_21st_century) during 2024. The current Prime Minister, [François Bayrou](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Bayrou), was appointed by President [Emmanuel Macron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) after Bayrou's predecessor, [Michel Barnier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Barnier), was ousted in a vote of no confidence. " } ] }
