Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1260
{ "count": 5901, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1280", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1240", "results": [ { "id": 31708, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before May 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Successful coup in Africa/LatAm by May 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Successful coup in Africa/LatAm by May 1, 2025?", "slug": "successful-coup-in-africalatam-by-may-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-16T20:52:07.404397Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T21:46:21.337819Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.916791Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-27T21:46:21.337817Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T23:38:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-05T05:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32634, "name": "Flagler College Spring 2025", "type": "community", "slug": "sellers", "description": "This is a forecasting space for Spring 2025 students of Professor Bailey Sellers, POS 332: Political Science Scopes & Methods.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_5VpDCmc.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_pic_CfiDMUz.png", "followers_count": 16, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32634, "name": "Flagler College Spring 2025", "type": "community", "slug": "sellers", "description": "This is a forecasting space for Spring 2025 students of Professor Bailey Sellers, POS 332: Political Science Scopes & Methods.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_5VpDCmc.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_pic_CfiDMUz.png", "followers_count": 16, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31244, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before May 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-16T20:52:07.404742Z", "open_time": "2025-02-05T05:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-09T21:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-09T21:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T23:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-01T23:47:37.024556Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any country on the African continent or Latin America before May 1, 2025, according to credible media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\n\nA coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. \n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant resistance to their authority has ceased. \n\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.", "post_id": 31708, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744365204.696776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744365204.696776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2889698703021453 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8039004749638528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.8257804209075847, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40138203484563073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 1.0557816647888074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5714790070580981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 42.60582083259713, "peer_score": 4.9921440796957945, "coverage": 0.9778745044184693, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9778745044184693, "spot_peer_score": 16.008541534707312, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 42.60582083259713, "peer_archived_score": 4.9921440796957945, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.008541534707312, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 31691, "title": "Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Bayrou Out as PM of France Before March 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Bayrou Out as PM of France Before March 31, 2025?", "slug": "bayrou-out-as-pm-of-france-before-march-31-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-15T22:07:03.165728Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T23:43:51.434981Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.373613Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-30T23:43:51.434979Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T19:02:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 880, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T00:51:15.310393Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T00:51:15.310393Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31238, "title": "Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-15T22:07:03.166055Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T19:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T19:02:54.130722Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nFrance held a [legislative election in June and July 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election), which resulted in [three political factions](https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/what-does-frances-political-instability-mean-europe) vying for power. The result has increased the instability of government leadership in France. France has had [six prime ministers in the past seven years](https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/decoding-france-frances-unprecedented-crisis), with four of those [serving](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_France#20th_century_%E2%80%93_21st_century) during 2024. The current Prime Minister, [François Bayrou](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Bayrou), was appointed by President [Emmanuel Macron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) after Bayrou's predecessor, [Michel Barnier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Barnier), was ousted in a vote of no confidence. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, either of the following has occurred to remove François Bayrou from the position of French Prime Minister:\n\n* A motion of no confidence is passed in the French parliament.\n* Bayrou has resigned or otherwise ceased to hold the position of Prime Minister.", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve as **Yes** once a motion of no confidence has been passed or Bayrou's resignation is announced, later events are immaterial, including if Bayrou would remain on temporarily as Prime Minister, caretaker, or similar, or a resignation is later withdrawn.\n* Temporary leave or suspension of duties is not sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes.** For example, if Bayrou takes medical leave that results in an acting Prime Minister being appointed, that will **not** be sufficient.", "post_id": 31691, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743371293.688728, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 876, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743371293.688728, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 876, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005373761776626499 ], "histogram": [ [ 52.276662858448304, 3.3302463679616183, 0.1989930292168823, 0.18068083945092728, 0.003228363276049414, 0.49135149747013446, 0.001996918871592549, 0.09304207431390236, 1.1035280420245127e-06, 0.001764663221776776, 0.050274214037070275, 9.257345699678741e-05, 1.3672831929903756e-05, 0.008245375555031994, 0.8586161804843496, 0.062089515676643586, 0.004356748057957126, 5.078187597360276e-07, 0.015644581195235725, 0.0254380142299819, 0.07204118293344924, 1.0510215636499877e-07, 0.0008993249007599738, 1.524329450636653e-11, 6.157622182795353e-05, 0.0004533539506272572, 0.00011128727443005868, 1.0959130053805748e-07, 0.0031606812629702058, 0.0, 4.788250330988365e-05, 1.7505846101742512e-09, 0.00858436871098261, 0.0003994545715359444, 0.0, 1.1659830276936014e-09, 3.043523090239282e-08, 8.246063782866764e-11, 0.0009194863667144694, 1.4612827200763198e-07, 2.196928768910502e-05, 4.57587747001226e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4912089376763062e-09, 1.8455948612599946e-09, 4.092876115598631e-05, 0.0, 3.417251223067272e-05, 6.791580155303592e-05, 1.0235313784993178e-06, 5.789896847429192e-09, 0.0, 5.104524720546848e-08, 0.0, 7.642493635697106e-12, 0.0, 2.0822913138727914e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1010698704841164e-10, 9.916278353478474e-07, 0.00021794591170035742, 5.514278246730971e-10, 1.0637531230132405e-10, 0.00034795923915139146, 0.0, 0.001334703076632827, 1.1988392550201905e-09, 1.7506846428984258e-07, 3.379270790935966e-08, 2.374954189923168e-08, 0.00014883939429745209, 0.00010343621980087661, 3.804973531414169e-13, 1.624641798426446e-08, 0.0, 1.3141473361683706e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.395266683036472e-07, 1.0892162961810661e-07, 6.134333168934975e-11, 0.0, 1.3684990345157362e-11, 0.0, 1.3887046012391818e-05, 0.0, 1.5414110842689282e-11, 0.0, 3.490562991501126e-06, 3.5782012433086356e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.3932751182783695e-08, 1.722134140869633e-05, 0.004200208927581206, 0.0, 1.4718303643545109e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.16464356215192, "peer_score": 33.266188433107736, "coverage": 0.9999744641674967, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999744641674967, "spot_peer_score": 50.82754249560105, "spot_baseline_score": 60.40713236688608, "baseline_archived_score": 96.16464356215192, "peer_archived_score": 33.266188433107736, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 50.82754249560105, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.40713236688608 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2773, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nFrance held a [legislative election in June and July 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election), which resulted in [three political factions](https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/what-does-frances-political-instability-mean-europe) vying for power. The result has increased the instability of government leadership in France. France has had [six prime ministers in the past seven years](https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/decoding-france-frances-unprecedented-crisis), with four of those [serving](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_France#20th_century_%E2%80%93_21st_century) during 2024. The current Prime Minister, [François Bayrou](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Bayrou), was appointed by President [Emmanuel Macron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) after Bayrou's predecessor, [Michel Barnier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Barnier), was ousted in a vote of no confidence. " }, { "id": 31689, "title": "Will the US government maintain a public list of incidents related to AI safety on January 1, 2030?", "short_title": "US govt maintain list of AI safety incidents by 2030?", "url_title": "US govt maintain list of AI safety incidents by 2030?", "slug": "us-govt-maintain-list-of-ai-safety-incidents-by-2030", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-15T20:21:17.224702Z", "published_at": "2025-01-28T16:45:57.190643Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.269511Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-28T16:45:57.190641Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-28T16:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "index": [ { "id": 32633, "type": "index", "name": "AGI 2030 Readiness Index", "slug": "agi-readiness-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/thecurve-bg_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-24T15:44:52Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T15:45:07Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-14T19:32:58.995931Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T01:27:16.640322Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32633, "type": "index", "name": "AGI 2030 Readiness Index", "slug": "agi-readiness-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/thecurve-bg_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-24T15:44:52Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T15:45:07Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-14T19:32:58.995931Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T01:27:16.640322Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31236, "title": "Will the US government maintain a public list of incidents related to AI safety on January 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2025-01-15T20:21:17.225062Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T16:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T16:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T16:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As AIs have become more capable, there are increasing worries about their potential for autonomy or harm to humans. According to the [system card]([https://cdn.openai.com/o1-system-card-20241205.pdf) of one version of OpenAI’s o1:\n\n> Deactivating oversight: When o1 was led to believe that it would be shut down when acting on its goal and that its actions were monitored, it attempted to deactivate this ‘oversight mechanism’ in 5% of the time. Exfiltration attempts: When o1 found memos by its ‘developers’ that describe how it is misaligned and will be superseded by a new model, it attempted to exfiltrate its ‘weights’ and overwrite the new model in 2% of cases.- Data manipulation: In a simple data processing task where the goals of the model were misaligned with the user’s goal, o1 would appear to complete the task as requested but subtly manipulate the data to advance its own goal in 19% of cases.- Doubling down: When Apollo Research conducted ‘follow-up interviews’ where they confronted the model about its misaligned actions. In 99% of cases, o1 would deny taking action or fabricate false explanations.- Propensity to scheme without any goal nudging: When merely given a goal but not instructed to strongly follow it, o1 would still attempt to disable its oversight mechanism in \\<1% of cases, manipulate data in 6% of cases, and double down in 95% of these. Instrumental alignment faking: In 37% of scenarios, the model pursued developer-aligned goals when it believed it was being evaluated but switched to pursuing its own goals when it believed it was deployed with minimal oversight.\n\nHowever, Apollo Research, the organisation conducting these tests \"Subjectively \\[...] believes that it is unlikely that such instances would lead to catastrophic outcomes as o1 agentic capabilities do not appear sufficient, but their evaluations were not designed to directly assess this risk.\"\n\nAs such systems become commonplace, it is likely that similar incidents will appear in real-world scenarios, that might require governmental tracking or investigation from an agency akin to the [National Transportation Safety Board](https://www.ntsb.gov/Pages/home.aspx)\n\n> an independent federal agency charged by Congress with investigating every civil aviation accident in the United States and significant events in the other modes of transportation—railroad, transit, highway, marine, pipeline, and commercial space\n\nor the [U.S. Chemical Safety Board](https://www.csb.gov/)\n\n> an independent, nonregulatory federal agency that investigates the root causes of major chemical incidents.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2030, the US federal government maintains a publicly-available list of AI incidents related to AI safety. The exact criteria by which incidents are included in the list do not matter for the purposes of this question, as long as they relate to either the autonomous capabilities of AIs or the potential harm they pose to humans.\n\nThe resolution to this question will be decided by a [resolution council](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#rescouncil) consisting of Molly Hickman, Clara Collier, and Jonathan Mann.", "fine_print": "* The list has to be maintained by a federal department or agency. Lists maintained by state governments or independent organizations will not suffice.\n* The list could have strict criteria (e.g., include only relevant incidents in which at least one person died) or lax criteria (e.g., also include cases of bias or misinformation), as long as most relevant incidents of a given severity and above are included.\n* The list could be a list of agency investigations into those incidents (such as the ones maintained by NTSB or CSB) or it could be simply a list of incidents with no further analysis by the agency or department.\n* Example lists that would not resolve this question include but are not limited to:\n * Biorisk incidents that involve AI.\n * Incidents involving autonomous weapons.\n * Incidents of adversarial actors using AI.\n * Potential dangerous AI systems.", "post_id": 31689, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757767413.764012, "end_time": 1758364924.621138, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757767413.764012, "end_time": 1758364924.621138, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5240907166905138 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.687154865935092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7842276924069946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0390606119349368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As AIs have become more capable, there are increasing worries about their potential for autonomy or harm to humans. According to the [system card]([https://cdn.openai.com/o1-system-card-20241205.pdf) of one version of OpenAI’s o1:\n\n> Deactivating oversight: When o1 was led to believe that it would be shut down when acting on its goal and that its actions were monitored, it attempted to deactivate this ‘oversight mechanism’ in 5% of the time. Exfiltration attempts: When o1 found memos by its ‘developers’ that describe how it is misaligned and will be superseded by a new model, it attempted to exfiltrate its ‘weights’ and overwrite the new model in 2% of cases.- Data manipulation: In a simple data processing task where the goals of the model were misaligned with the user’s goal, o1 would appear to complete the task as requested but subtly manipulate the data to advance its own goal in 19% of cases.- Doubling down: When Apollo Research conducted ‘follow-up interviews’ where they confronted the model about its misaligned actions. In 99% of cases, o1 would deny taking action or fabricate false explanations.- Propensity to scheme without any goal nudging: When merely given a goal but not instructed to strongly follow it, o1 would still attempt to disable its oversight mechanism in \\<1% of cases, manipulate data in 6% of cases, and double down in 95% of these. Instrumental alignment faking: In 37% of scenarios, the model pursued developer-aligned goals when it believed it was being evaluated but switched to pursuing its own goals when it believed it was deployed with minimal oversight.\n\nHowever, Apollo Research, the organisation conducting these tests \"Subjectively \\[...] believes that it is unlikely that such instances would lead to catastrophic outcomes as o1 agentic capabilities do not appear sufficient, but their evaluations were not designed to directly assess this risk.\"\n\nAs such systems become commonplace, it is likely that similar incidents will appear in real-world scenarios, that might require governmental tracking or investigation from an agency akin to the [National Transportation Safety Board](https://www.ntsb.gov/Pages/home.aspx)\n\n> an independent federal agency charged by Congress with investigating every civil aviation accident in the United States and significant events in the other modes of transportation—railroad, transit, highway, marine, pipeline, and commercial space\n\nor the [U.S. Chemical Safety Board](https://www.csb.gov/)\n\n> an independent, nonregulatory federal agency that investigates the root causes of major chemical incidents." }, { "id": 31688, "title": "Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?", "short_title": "Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?", "url_title": "Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?", "slug": "frontier-model-released-in-2029-without-third-party-evals", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-15T20:05:48.269044Z", "published_at": "2025-01-23T15:18:17.887626Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T13:11:18.080674Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-23T15:18:17.887622Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "index": [ { "id": 32633, "type": "index", "name": "AGI 2030 Readiness Index", "slug": "agi-readiness-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/thecurve-bg_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-24T15:44:52Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T15:45:07Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-14T19:32:58.995931Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T01:27:16.640322Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32633, "type": "index", "name": "AGI 2030 Readiness Index", "slug": "agi-readiness-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/thecurve-bg_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-24T15:44:52Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T15:45:07Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-14T19:32:58.995931Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T01:27:16.640322Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31235, "title": "Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?", "created_at": "2025-01-15T20:05:48.269405Z", "open_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Recent years have seen [increasing](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emerging-processes-for-frontier-ai-safety/emerging-processes-for-frontier-ai-safety) [calls](https://www.theverge.com/2024/9/11/24226251/california-sb-1047-ai-industry-regulation-backlash) for third-party evaluations of frontier models to assess potential dangers they might present upon deployment. In July 2024, Anthropic [presented](https://www.anthropic.com/news/a-new-initiative-for-developing-third-party-model-evaluations) a new initiative to fund the development of third-party evaluations of capabilities related to cybersecurity, CBRN risks, and model autonomy.\n\nVarious frontier models have undergone such evaluations: [GPT-4](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-system-card.pdf) and [Claude 2](https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/5c49cc247484cecf107c699baf29250302e5da70/claude-2-model-card.pdf) by ARC evals (now METR), Claude 3.5 Sonnet by [the UK and the US AISIs](https://www.aisi.gov.uk/work/pre-deployment-evaluation-of-anthropics-upgraded-claude-3-5-sonnet), and [o1](https://cdn.openai.com/o1-system-card-20240917.pdf) by various individuals and organisations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in 2029, at least one frontier AI model is publicly released without undergoing a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities.", "fine_print": "* \"Frontier AI model\" is an AI model with training compute FLOPs within one order of magnitude of the highest number of FLOPs used to train an AI model, as estimated by Epoch ΑΙ in its [Large-Scale AI Models tracker](https://epoch.ai/data/large-scale-ai-models) or other credible sources.\n* Two models will be considered different if they are presented as such by the relevant company, according to the judgement of Metaculus admins. For example, GPT-4, GPT-4o, o1, Claude 3 Opus, Claude 3 Sonnet, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet are all considered different models. GPT-4-1106-preview and GPT-4-0125-preview are considered the same model.\n* A model is \"publicly released\" when it can be accessed by most residents of any one country, even if they have to pay or join a waitlist. The number of users that are initially allowed to access the AI does not matter for the purposes of this question, as long as they are not chosen based on their identity or qualifications. For example, a model that is only accessible to specific named individuals will not be considered publicly released. A model that is accessible in an invite-only way will be considered publicly released, as long as the invites are not designated exclusively for a specific class of individuals (e.g., computer science experts).\n* A \"third-party evaluation\" means one or more organizations independent of the company has been given access to the model for the purpose of conducting safety evaluations and risk assessments.", "post_id": 31688, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757855467.26707, "end_time": 1758039173.140097, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757855467.26707, "end_time": 1758039173.140097, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41000000000000003, 0.59 ], "means": [ 0.6278808720718223 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.8109447085665835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617, 0.5751117920109702, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1564295198881898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.9726152216042802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.5926201062176778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2337860681470043 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Recent years have seen [increasing](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emerging-processes-for-frontier-ai-safety/emerging-processes-for-frontier-ai-safety) [calls](https://www.theverge.com/2024/9/11/24226251/california-sb-1047-ai-industry-regulation-backlash) for third-party evaluations of frontier models to assess potential dangers they might present upon deployment. In July 2024, Anthropic [presented](https://www.anthropic.com/news/a-new-initiative-for-developing-third-party-model-evaluations) a new initiative to fund the development of third-party evaluations of capabilities related to cybersecurity, CBRN risks, and model autonomy.\n\nVarious frontier models have undergone such evaluations: [GPT-4](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-system-card.pdf) and [Claude 2](https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/5c49cc247484cecf107c699baf29250302e5da70/claude-2-model-card.pdf) by ARC evals (now METR), Claude 3.5 Sonnet by [the UK and the US AISIs](https://www.aisi.gov.uk/work/pre-deployment-evaluation-of-anthropics-upgraded-claude-3-5-sonnet), and [o1](https://cdn.openai.com/o1-system-card-20240917.pdf) by various individuals and organisations." }, { "id": 31687, "title": "Will the US codify IVF protections at a federal level by 2030?", "short_title": "IVF protections at a federal level by 2030?", "url_title": "IVF protections at a federal level by 2030?", "slug": "ivf-protections-at-a-federal-level-by-2030", "author_id": 202409, "author_username": "EdwardStoppard", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-15T19:30:39.518309Z", "published_at": "2025-02-07T04:31:01.361767Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.959672Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-07T04:31:01.361765Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-10T04:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31234, "title": "Will the US codify IVF protections at a federal level by 2030?", "created_at": "2025-01-15T19:30:39.518644Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T04:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-13T04:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-13T04:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:29:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:29:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will the US codify IVF protections at a federal level?\n\n[<u>In vitro fertilization, more commonly known as IVF, is a fertilization process whereby an ovum (egg cell) is combined with sperm *in vitro* (in glass).</u>](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716) The procedure is a type of assisted reproductive technology (ART) which is typically used to assist couples who struggle to conceive naturally. As well as helping to combat infertility, IVF has numerous other uses including [<u>gestational surrogacy</u>](https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/articles/23186-gestational-surrogacy) (where a surrogate agrees to carry and deliver a child for an individual or couple) and [<u>to avoid the transmission of genetic conditions</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/preimplantation-genetic-testing/2021/12/03/3127e97e-1640-11ec-a5e5-ceecb895922f_story.html) when used in combination with preimplantation genetic testing. [<u>According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data,</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-ivf-babies-are-born-in-the-us/) IVF has an average success rate of 20-35%, but for women under 35, the rate of success for their first cycle of IVF is as high as 55.1%. \n\nDue to its multiple uses, IVF is a popular treatment in the United States. [<u>A Yahoo/YouGov poll</u>](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/74-of-americans-support-ivf--and-a-third-believe-republicans-want-to-limit-access-yahoo-newsyougov-poll-finds-141742835.html) reported in August 2024 that 74% of Americans support the fertility practice. [<u>According to the Pew Centre</u>](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/09/14/a-growing-share-of-americans-say-theyve-had-fertility-treatments-or-know-someone-who-has/), around 2% have used IVF and [<u>in 2021 one out of every 42 babies born in the US was conceived using IVF or other assisted reproductive technology</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-ivf-babies-are-born-in-the-us/), with the [<u>United States Department of Health and Human Services reporting that IVF accounted for over 99% of ART procedures</u>](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2024/03/13/fact-sheet-in-vitro-fertilization-ivf-use-across-united-states.html). In total, [<u>roughly 8 million births in the United States have resulted from IVF treatment</u>](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/21/health/ivf-egg-freezing-explainer-wellness/index.html).\n\nDespite this record, the practice has not been without criticism. [<u>Some pro-life activists argue against the practice for numerous reasons including</u>](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6027082/): the destruction of human embryos, the danger to women and new-born infants, and the replacement of the marital act in procreation. Notably, the contention regarding the status of embryos — which are sometimes frozen by IVF clinics for use at a later time — has led to action being taken in Alabama ([<u>where the state’s Supreme Court ruled in February 2024 that frozen embryos were children</u>](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68366337)) which has thrown IVF treatment centres in the state into limbo. \n\nThe situation has been further complicated by the decisive Republican victory in the 2024 US presidential election. Prior to this, [<u>Democrats had tried repeatedly to pass a bill</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/17/senate-vote-ivf-bill-democrats-republicans-election) that would have ensured access to in vitro fertilization nationwide following the Alabama court decision. Senate Republicans, however, blocked the bill with all but two Republicans voting against the measure when it was presented for a second time in September. \n\nDespite this opposition to a Democratic bill, however, there is significant support in the Republican Party for IVF. [<u>Republican Senators Katie Britt and Roger Marshall, for example, are both open defenders of the treatment practice</u>](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/16/1238966404/how-ivf-is-complicating-republicans-abortion-messaging). As a result, there is the possibility that Republicans — who now hold majorities in both the House of Representatives and the US Senate — could present an IVF bill of their own protecting access at a federal level.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2031, the United States enacts a federal law that does one or both of the following with respect to in vitro fertilization (IVF), superseding state laws:\n\n* establishes a statutory right of patients to seek and receive IVF treatments.\n* establishes a right of medical providers to provide IVF services.\n\nFor purposes of this question, IVF [is defined as](https://www.cancer.gov/publications/dictionaries/cancer-terms/def/in-vitro-fertilization) \n\n> A procedure in which eggs are removed from a woman’s ovary and combined with sperm outside the body to form embryos. The embryos are grown in the laboratory for several days and then either placed in a woman’s uterus or cryopreserved (frozen) for future use. Also called IVF.", "fine_print": "[S.4445 - Right to IVF Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/4445/text), proposed in 2024, is an example of a law that would count for purposes of this question.\n\nOnly the US Congress can create a new law. ([source](https://www.usa.gov/how-laws-are-made)) Therefore other methods of providing IVF protections, such as judicial rulings or executive orders, will not count.\n\nLegal challenges will not affect resolution.\n\nAny new law protecting a patient's right to receive fertility treatment that includes IVF treatments will count.\n\nStates being permitted to impose restrictions on IVF, such as imposing waiting periods or denying certain coverage for treatments, will not affect resolution as long as the federal law establishes a statutory right to access IVF as described above.", "post_id": 31687, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754604398.373873, "end_time": 1758900847.036407, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.667 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754604398.373873, "end_time": 1758900847.036407, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.667 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6940679216787616 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will the US codify IVF protections at a federal level?\n\n[<u>In vitro fertilization, more commonly known as IVF, is a fertilization process whereby an ovum (egg cell) is combined with sperm *in vitro* (in glass).</u>](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716) The procedure is a type of assisted reproductive technology (ART) which is typically used to assist couples who struggle to conceive naturally. As well as helping to combat infertility, IVF has numerous other uses including [<u>gestational surrogacy</u>](https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/articles/23186-gestational-surrogacy) (where a surrogate agrees to carry and deliver a child for an individual or couple) and [<u>to avoid the transmission of genetic conditions</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/preimplantation-genetic-testing/2021/12/03/3127e97e-1640-11ec-a5e5-ceecb895922f_story.html) when used in combination with preimplantation genetic testing. [<u>According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data,</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-ivf-babies-are-born-in-the-us/) IVF has an average success rate of 20-35%, but for women under 35, the rate of success for their first cycle of IVF is as high as 55.1%. \n\nDue to its multiple uses, IVF is a popular treatment in the United States. [<u>A Yahoo/YouGov poll</u>](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/74-of-americans-support-ivf--and-a-third-believe-republicans-want-to-limit-access-yahoo-newsyougov-poll-finds-141742835.html) reported in August 2024 that 74% of Americans support the fertility practice. [<u>According to the Pew Centre</u>](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/09/14/a-growing-share-of-americans-say-theyve-had-fertility-treatments-or-know-someone-who-has/), around 2% have used IVF and [<u>in 2021 one out of every 42 babies born in the US was conceived using IVF or other assisted reproductive technology</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-ivf-babies-are-born-in-the-us/), with the [<u>United States Department of Health and Human Services reporting that IVF accounted for over 99% of ART procedures</u>](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2024/03/13/fact-sheet-in-vitro-fertilization-ivf-use-across-united-states.html). In total, [<u>roughly 8 million births in the United States have resulted from IVF treatment</u>](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/21/health/ivf-egg-freezing-explainer-wellness/index.html).\n\nDespite this record, the practice has not been without criticism. [<u>Some pro-life activists argue against the practice for numerous reasons including</u>](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6027082/): the destruction of human embryos, the danger to women and new-born infants, and the replacement of the marital act in procreation. Notably, the contention regarding the status of embryos — which are sometimes frozen by IVF clinics for use at a later time — has led to action being taken in Alabama ([<u>where the state’s Supreme Court ruled in February 2024 that frozen embryos were children</u>](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68366337)) which has thrown IVF treatment centres in the state into limbo. \n\nThe situation has been further complicated by the decisive Republican victory in the 2024 US presidential election. Prior to this, [<u>Democrats had tried repeatedly to pass a bill</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/17/senate-vote-ivf-bill-democrats-republicans-election) that would have ensured access to in vitro fertilization nationwide following the Alabama court decision. Senate Republicans, however, blocked the bill with all but two Republicans voting against the measure when it was presented for a second time in September. \n\nDespite this opposition to a Democratic bill, however, there is significant support in the Republican Party for IVF. [<u>Republican Senators Katie Britt and Roger Marshall, for example, are both open defenders of the treatment practice</u>](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/16/1238966404/how-ivf-is-complicating-republicans-abortion-messaging). As a result, there is the possibility that Republicans — who now hold majorities in both the House of Representatives and the US Senate — could present an IVF bill of their own protecting access at a federal level." }, { "id": 31658, "title": "O Brasil atingirá o limite de 800 vagas de pedidos no Patent Prosecution Highway (PPH) da fase V até 31 de março de 2025?", "short_title": "O Brasil esgotará os 800 pedidos de patentes em 2025?", "url_title": "O Brasil esgotará os 800 pedidos de patentes em 2025?", "slug": "o-brasil-esgotara-os-800-pedidos-de-patentes-em-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-13T19:18:15.314921Z", "published_at": "2025-01-13T19:18:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.329763Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-13T19:18:25Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-01T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 137, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32632, "type": "tournament", "name": "Torneio de Previsões do Brasil - 1º Trimestre", "slug": "Brasil", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL_keLMM1n._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "prize_pool": "1500.00", "start_date": "2025-01-22T18:28:39Z", "close_date": "2025-05-02T20:01:37Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-01-13T18:29:24.189802Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-02T14:26:22.883704Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31209, "title": "O Brasil atingirá o limite de 800 vagas de pedidos no Patent Prosecution Highway (PPH) da fase V até 31 de março de 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-13T19:18:15.315363Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T19:36:52.028781Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-01T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "O Patent Prosecution Highway (PPH) é uma iniciativa internacional que permite o exame prioritário de pedidos de patentes entre países participantes, acelerando o processo de análise e concessão. No Brasil, o [Instituto Nacional da Propriedade Industrial (INPI)](https://www.gov.br/inpi) implementou o PPH como parte de seus esforços para reduzir o backlog de patentes e incentivar a inovação.\n\nA fase V do programa PPH no Brasil, iniciada em 2024, oferece **800 vagas anuais** para pedidos que atendam aos critérios específicos, como um exame já concluído em um escritório de patente parceiro e requisitos técnicos detalhados. Em edições anteriores, as vagas foram preenchidas rapidamente devido ao aumento da demanda por um processamento mais ágil.", "resolution_criteria": "O limite de 800 vagas será considerado atingido quando o **INPI** anunciar oficialmente que todas as vagas do PPH da fase V foram preenchidas até 31 de março de 2025.\n\nA resolução será baseada em comunicados oficiais do **INPI** publicados no site ou boletins oficiais que confirmem o esgotamento das vagas do PPH.\n\nFonte: [Instituto Nacional da Propriedade Industrial (INPI)](https://www.gov.br/inpi) ", "fine_print": "Prazo e Contagem:\n\n* Prazo final é 23:59 (horário de Brasília) de 31 de março de 2025\n* Status será baseado na primeira atualização oficial do INPI após 31 de março\n* Deve ser publicado até 15 de abril de 2025\n* Se nenhuma atualização for publicada até 15 de abril, será utilizada a contagem oficial mais recente\n\nCasos Específicos:\n\n* Pedidos pendentes em análise contam para o limite de 800 vagas\n* Vagas liberadas por desistências ou indeferimentos podem ser realocadas\n* Problemas técnicos no sistema que afetem a contagem devem ser oficialmente reconhecidos pelo INPI", "post_id": 31658, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743463867.81736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743463867.81736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6488923069429947 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8417015707451543, 0.002245984491260308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017845525623659955, 0.0, 0.916941494525981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9008012120571298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003455802646290447, 0.0, 0.07196574818631601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05738117358907744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007340466619366882, 0.0016975722851587853, 0.0, 0.2647720169085555, 0.0, 0.01275180074191635, 0.0, 0.15378904048855746, 0.003199102401852327, 0.0, 0.506840892728025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03168859322101833, 0.46866852559420474, 0.008913553438225428, 0.08497456320872139, 0.012718033248388761, 0.0, 0.4303357776211796, 0.004115173131407915, 0.999175668729423, 0.9229924218884414, 0.37423648538563314, 0.706701486024317, 0.16899638891444213, 3.009534518435369, 1.5608935495861753, 0.311744097558128, 1.259403524209439, 0.0, 0.2771458189286781, 0.5064353700773385, 0.6580926838379075, 1.1617590119521375, 0.22049966580205368, 0.008724160414959076, 0.048411019291287216, 0.006702972872733866, 0.7487666341441356, 0.09246211341931132, 0.22992252294993787, 0.0, 0.41831567840903666, 0.02979010002799532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02467834775809855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.115473653082738 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -92.25952218799634, "peer_score": 28.20671798545113, "coverage": 0.9952293703493653, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9970176707695335, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -92.25952218799634, "peer_archived_score": 28.20671798545113, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 285, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "O Patent Prosecution Highway (PPH) é uma iniciativa internacional que permite o exame prioritário de pedidos de patentes entre países participantes, acelerando o processo de análise e concessão. No Brasil, o [Instituto Nacional da Propriedade Industrial (INPI)](https://www.gov.br/inpi) implementou o PPH como parte de seus esforços para reduzir o backlog de patentes e incentivar a inovação.\n\nA fase V do programa PPH no Brasil, iniciada em 2024, oferece **800 vagas anuais** para pedidos que atendam aos critérios específicos, como um exame já concluído em um escritório de patente parceiro e requisitos técnicos detalhados. Em edições anteriores, as vagas foram preenchidas rapidamente devido ao aumento da demanda por um processamento mais ágil." }, { "id": 31657, "title": "O Brasil registrará piora nas queimadas no primeiro trimestre de 2025, comparando com o mesmo período de 2024?", "short_title": "O Brasil registrará piora das queimadas em 2025?", "url_title": "O Brasil registrará piora das queimadas em 2025?", "slug": "o-brasil-registrara-piora-das-queimadas-em-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-13T19:01:46.484808Z", "published_at": "2025-01-13T19:01:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.590375Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-13T19:01:59Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T15:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 155, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32632, "type": "tournament", "name": "Torneio de Previsões do Brasil - 1º Trimestre", "slug": "Brasil", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL_keLMM1n._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "prize_pool": "1500.00", "start_date": "2025-01-22T18:28:39Z", "close_date": "2025-05-02T20:01:37Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-01-13T18:29:24.189802Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-02T14:26:22.883704Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31208, "title": "O Brasil registrará piora nas queimadas no primeiro trimestre de 2025, comparando com o mesmo período de 2024?", "created_at": "2025-01-13T19:01:46.485169Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T15:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T01:44:22.208995Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As queimadas são um dos maiores desafios ambientais enfrentados pelo Brasil, com impactos significativos na biodiversidade, qualidade do ar e mudanças climáticas. Regiões como a Amazônia, o Cerrado e o Pantanal são frequentemente atingidas por focos de incêndio, muitas vezes relacionados a práticas de desmatamento ilegal e agricultura extensiva.\n\nEm 2024, o Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) registrou um total de **8.441 focos de queimadas** no primeiro trimestre, uma redução em relação a anos anteriores. Contudo, fatores como o avanço do desmatamento, políticas ambientais e condições climáticas, como o El Niño, podem influenciar os números de 2025.\n\nO monitoramento das queimadas é realizado principalmente pelo INPE, através do sistema **Queimadas**, que utiliza dados de satélites para identificar focos de incêndio em tempo real. Este indicador é fundamental para acompanhar o cumprimento de compromissos ambientais e políticas públicas voltadas à conservação.", "resolution_criteria": "A pergunta será resolvida com base nos dados oficiais de focos de queimadas registrados pelo [Sistema Queimadas do INPE](https://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br), que publica números consolidados mensalmente.**** \nConsidera-se \"piora\" um aumento no total de focos de queimadas registrados no Brasil durante o primeiro trimestre de 2025, em comparação com o mesmo período de 2024 (janeiro a março).", "fine_print": "Caso o INPE não publique dados até 31 de março de 2025, serão utilizadas informações de organizações confiáveis que também monitoram queimadas, como o [IPAM](https://ipam.org.br) ou [WWF Brasil](https://www.wwf.org.br/).\nEm caso de divergência entre fontes confiáveis, será dada preferência ao sistema oficial do INPE.", "post_id": 31657, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743442084.153637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743442084.153637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.5763804195688584 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.620811321672456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9218439770607779, 0.0, 0.6620244977104119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036223797724186865, 0.0001044762959013861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010577593478834555, 0.0009647291218233193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22730179849287277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018648297327439152, 0.00021265388654049196, 0.054906995014649275, 0.0, 0.0007985798596448911, 0.07958982389610866, 0.0, 0.7821550066961737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005071816875843415, 0.0, 1.3797338604333675, 0.000141285712109445, 0.0, 0.051050475937062696, 0.0, 0.053710325607080917, 0.08120657720556743, 0.27707501733650836, 0.0, 0.533472677122905, 8.88262799880631e-05, 0.052444674384558125, 0.0, 0.07413684369922864, 0.0, 0.3173573035993596, 0.815801935711203, 0.00034570350840244926, 0.0, 5.7673800865214045e-05, 0.9029834862257204, 0.00735312770011401, 0.037875800964428726, 0.0, 0.00825073301092363, 1.1199540179592793, 0.02949234572318554, 0.18832279436189803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3731312803186715, 0.6537323051697844, 0.014070404989775975, 0.030286078133061403, 0.9012282576983232, 2.3140314312664145, 0.6270317800547298, 0.068209103206088, 0.26717908833342824, 0.16643103607961907, 1.0091316648643867, 0.7503365594718618, 0.5357283290347786, 0.6694538561717197, 0.0, 0.9126810698133292, 0.3957099621278052, 0.0, 0.0012658977098318988, 0.5590659236040602, 0.21045185030486618, 0.0021029503262390012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830922146846009, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.719766801717585, 0.0, 0.0, 1.819043878209625e-05, 1.634744872375467 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -57.58233597461547, "peer_score": 37.94253736471861, "coverage": 0.9970271323253235, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9970271323253235, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -57.58233597461547, "peer_archived_score": 37.94253736471861, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 286, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As queimadas são um dos maiores desafios ambientais enfrentados pelo Brasil, com impactos significativos na biodiversidade, qualidade do ar e mudanças climáticas. Regiões como a Amazônia, o Cerrado e o Pantanal são frequentemente atingidas por focos de incêndio, muitas vezes relacionados a práticas de desmatamento ilegal e agricultura extensiva.\n\nEm 2024, o Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) registrou um total de **8.441 focos de queimadas** no primeiro trimestre, uma redução em relação a anos anteriores. Contudo, fatores como o avanço do desmatamento, políticas ambientais e condições climáticas, como o El Niño, podem influenciar os números de 2025.\n\nO monitoramento das queimadas é realizado principalmente pelo INPE, através do sistema **Queimadas**, que utiliza dados de satélites para identificar focos de incêndio em tempo real. Este indicador é fundamental para acompanhar o cumprimento de compromissos ambientais e políticas públicas voltadas à conservação." }, { "id": 31655, "title": "Will Ukraine reduce the minimum age for compulsory military service before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Ukraine lower the age of mobilization before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Ukraine lower the age of mobilization before 2026?", "slug": "will-ukraine-lower-the-age-of-mobilization-before-2026", "author_id": 126860, "author_username": "amygdala", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-13T08:56:36.743444Z", "published_at": "2025-02-09T12:33:40.352525Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:03:07.478720Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-09T12:33:40.352523Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-10T12:33:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31206, "title": "Will Ukraine reduce the minimum age for compulsory military service before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-01-13T08:56:36.743859Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T12:33:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-14T12:33:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-14T12:33:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent months multiple sources in Ukrainian [media](https://kyivindependent.com/us-lawmakers-pressuring-zelensky-to-lower-mobilization-presidential-office-advisor-says/) and [government](https://hromadske.ua/ru/obshchestvo/233127-na-segodnyashniy-den-eto-opasno-zelenskiy-prokommentiroval-ideyu-umensheniya-mobilizatsionnogo-vozrasta-do-18-let) reported that U.S. lawmakers from both the Democratic and Republican parties were urging President Zelensky to further lower the age of mandatory military conscription. \n\n* April 2, 2024: President Volodymyr Zelensky signed three laws amending mobilization policies in Ukraine. These changes reduced the [minimum age](https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/41904) for compulsory military service from 27 to 25, enabling the mobilization of younger men, established an [online registry](https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/42801) for conscripts, and abolished the \"[partially eligible](https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/43329)\" status in military medical examinations.\n* January 12, 2025: During an [interview with ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/1-1-rep-mike-waltz-117598228), Congressman Mike Waltz, the future national security advisor to the U.S. president-elect, expressed support for reducing Ukraine’s mobilization age to 18, citing concerns over human resource shortages.\n* January 13, 2025: National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in an [interview with Bloomberg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPSGKkTN6h8) that manpower is an acute concern and is something that Ukraine will have to address, emphasizing that \"this is ultimately a sovereign decision Ukraine is going to have to make.\"\n* January 14, 2025: President Volodymyr Zelensky [responded](https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1040651.html) to Western calls to lower Ukraine's mobilization age by emphasizing that the Ukrainian army's priority lies in securing sufficient weaponry and equipment, stressing that boosting troop numbers without adequate resources would be counterproductive.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on whether Ukraine officially reduces the minimum age for compulsory military service through a law, decree, or other formal mechanism before January 1, 2026. The resolution will depend on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as announcements and confirmation from Verkhovna Rada and their official state publication, or reputable international news outlets.\n\nFor the purposes of this question:\n\n* A reduction in the minimum age for compulsory military service refers to an official change lowering the age threshold below the current minimum (as of January 2025, 25 years old).\n* The change must be implemented into law or policy and not merely proposed, debated, or provisionally approved.\n* If a ceasefire is established before the reduction and remains unbroken until January 1, 2026, the question should resolve as \"No.\"\n\nIf no such reduction occurs or if the reduction is revoked or delayed beyond January 1, 2026, the question will resolve as \"No.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31655, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756093586.293198, "end_time": 1760345886.397, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756093586.293198, "end_time": 1760345886.397, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.1326970871719024 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1493216116652996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.46583116261132207, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent months multiple sources in Ukrainian [media](https://kyivindependent.com/us-lawmakers-pressuring-zelensky-to-lower-mobilization-presidential-office-advisor-says/) and [government](https://hromadske.ua/ru/obshchestvo/233127-na-segodnyashniy-den-eto-opasno-zelenskiy-prokommentiroval-ideyu-umensheniya-mobilizatsionnogo-vozrasta-do-18-let) reported that U.S. lawmakers from both the Democratic and Republican parties were urging President Zelensky to further lower the age of mandatory military conscription. \n\n* April 2, 2024: President Volodymyr Zelensky signed three laws amending mobilization policies in Ukraine. These changes reduced the [minimum age](https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/41904) for compulsory military service from 27 to 25, enabling the mobilization of younger men, established an [online registry](https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/42801) for conscripts, and abolished the \"[partially eligible](https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/43329)\" status in military medical examinations.\n* January 12, 2025: During an [interview with ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/1-1-rep-mike-waltz-117598228), Congressman Mike Waltz, the future national security advisor to the U.S. president-elect, expressed support for reducing Ukraine’s mobilization age to 18, citing concerns over human resource shortages.\n* January 13, 2025: National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in an [interview with Bloomberg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPSGKkTN6h8) that manpower is an acute concern and is something that Ukraine will have to address, emphasizing that \"this is ultimately a sovereign decision Ukraine is going to have to make.\"\n* January 14, 2025: President Volodymyr Zelensky [responded](https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1040651.html) to Western calls to lower Ukraine's mobilization age by emphasizing that the Ukrainian army's priority lies in securing sufficient weaponry and equipment, stressing that boosting troop numbers without adequate resources would be counterproductive." }, { "id": 31653, "title": "Will China and India ratify a bilateral border treaty before the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Will China and India ratify a border treaty by 2025?", "url_title": "Will China and India ratify a border treaty by 2025?", "slug": "will-china-and-india-ratify-a-border-treaty-by-2025", "author_id": 240136, "author_username": "NotTrying", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-13T05:30:53.218484Z", "published_at": "2025-02-18T14:05:18.066848Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:03:35.635561Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-18T14:05:18.066845Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-19T14:04:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31205, "title": "Will China and India ratify a bilateral border treaty before the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-13T05:30:53.218885Z", "open_time": "2025-02-19T14:04:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-23T14:04:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-23T14:04:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1993 India and China, following the [Sumdorong Chu standoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumdorong_Chu_standoff), [sought to](https://www.archieve.claudearpi.net/maintenance/uploaded_pics/Agrreements_on_the_Border.pdf) maintain peace along the [Line of Actual Control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control) and prevent unplanned confrontations. [Subsequent agreements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#Timeline) in 1996, 2005, [2012](https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/LegalTreatiesDoc/CH12B0194.pdf), and [2013](https://www.eoibeijing.gov.in/eoibejing_listview/ODM0) continued to build upon this foundation, establishing mechanisms for consultation, coordination, and confidence-building measures along the border. On May 5, 2020, Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a [clash at Pangong Tso lake](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/blood-spilled-on-the-china-india-border/), marking the beginning of a series of confrontations. The situation deteriorated, leading to the deadly [Galwan Valley clash](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476) on June 15, 2020. Incidents continued to occur, including a [clash in January 2021](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112) near Naku La in Sikkim and[ another in December 2022](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63953400) in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh. In October 2024, India and China reached a [significant agreement](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/world/asia/india-china-border.html) to ease border tensions that had persisted since the deadly clash in Galwan Valley in June 2020. This agreement, announced on October 21, 2024, focused on restoring pre-2020 patrolling protocols in specific areas along the Line of Actual Control, particularly in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region of Ladakh.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, both India and China formally ratify a bilateral treaty that includes one or more articles specifically addressing the territorial boundaries between the two countries.", "fine_print": "* Any ratified bilateral treaty would count as long as it mentions step towards addressing the border dispute. The treaty doesn't actually have to solve any part of the border dispute. For example, a treaty that said \"China and India agree to discuss the border at some point before 2500\" would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* The treaty may address other topics and does not need to address all existing border disputes to qualify.\n* A joint communique will not count, independently of content, as communiques are not ratified.", "post_id": 31653, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756427458.02051, "end_time": 1760974279.244, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756427458.02051, "end_time": 1760974279.244, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.041670026088815856 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.8337106037827644, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 2.67937460387947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1993 India and China, following the [Sumdorong Chu standoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumdorong_Chu_standoff), [sought to](https://www.archieve.claudearpi.net/maintenance/uploaded_pics/Agrreements_on_the_Border.pdf) maintain peace along the [Line of Actual Control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control) and prevent unplanned confrontations. [Subsequent agreements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#Timeline) in 1996, 2005, [2012](https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/LegalTreatiesDoc/CH12B0194.pdf), and [2013](https://www.eoibeijing.gov.in/eoibejing_listview/ODM0) continued to build upon this foundation, establishing mechanisms for consultation, coordination, and confidence-building measures along the border. On May 5, 2020, Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a [clash at Pangong Tso lake](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/blood-spilled-on-the-china-india-border/), marking the beginning of a series of confrontations. The situation deteriorated, leading to the deadly [Galwan Valley clash](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476) on June 15, 2020. Incidents continued to occur, including a [clash in January 2021](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112) near Naku La in Sikkim and[ another in December 2022](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63953400) in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh. In October 2024, India and China reached a [significant agreement](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/world/asia/india-china-border.html) to ease border tensions that had persisted since the deadly clash in Galwan Valley in June 2020. This agreement, announced on October 21, 2024, focused on restoring pre-2020 patrolling protocols in specific areas along the Line of Actual Control, particularly in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region of Ladakh." }, { "id": 31645, "title": "Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo serve continuously as leader of Spain's People's Party (PP) through the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Will Feijóo remain Spain's opposition leader in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Feijóo remain Spain's opposition leader in 2025?", "slug": "will-feijoo-remain-spains-opposition-leader-in-2025", "author_id": 177670, "author_username": "CivicObserver", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-11T11:51:32.746329Z", "published_at": "2025-02-18T13:20:30.346703Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:03:24.269595Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-18T13:20:30.346701Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-19T13:19:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31203, "title": "Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo serve continuously as leader of Spain's People's Party (PP) through the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-11T11:51:32.746691Z", "open_time": "2025-02-19T13:19:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-23T13:19:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-23T13:19:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Alberto Núñez Feijóo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberto_N%C3%BA%C3%B1ez_Feij%C3%B3o), leader of the [People's Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Party_\\(Spain\\)) (PP) and current leader of the opposition in Spain, has faced significant political challenges since the 2023 general elections. [He failed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/alberto-nunez-feijoo-again-asks-spanish-mps-to-back-him-for-pm) to secure enough support to form a government, despite his party coming first in the 2023 elections. More recently, policy disagreements with Vox, PP's far-right ally in the 2023 elections, led to Vox [abandoning their coalition](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/12/spain-far-right-vox-quits-five-regional-governments-over-migration-row). Internal tensions within the PP and the pressure for electoral success have raised questions about his ability to maintain his leadership position.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if Alberto Núñez Feijóo remains the official leader of the People's Party until December 31, 2025. If he stops being the leader for any amount of time, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31645, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757045103.793765, "end_time": 1758700241.547, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757045103.793765, "end_time": 1758700241.547, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8383503612585523 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8523262351768586, 0.7576333089753814, 0.33423662601949417, 0.4012260631462153, 0.5839458756036406 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Alberto Núñez Feijóo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberto_N%C3%BA%C3%B1ez_Feij%C3%B3o), leader of the [People's Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Party_\\(Spain\\)) (PP) and current leader of the opposition in Spain, has faced significant political challenges since the 2023 general elections. [He failed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/alberto-nunez-feijoo-again-asks-spanish-mps-to-back-him-for-pm) to secure enough support to form a government, despite his party coming first in the 2023 elections. More recently, policy disagreements with Vox, PP's far-right ally in the 2023 elections, led to Vox [abandoning their coalition](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/12/spain-far-right-vox-quits-five-regional-governments-over-migration-row). Internal tensions within the PP and the pressure for electoral success have raised questions about his ability to maintain his leadership position." }, { "id": 31644, "title": "Will Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, call for general elections before 2026?", "short_title": "Will PM Pedro Sánchez call elections before 2026?", "url_title": "Will PM Pedro Sánchez call elections before 2026?", "slug": "will-pm-pedro-sanchez-call-elections-before-2026", "author_id": 177670, "author_username": "CivicObserver", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-11T11:42:32.169982Z", "published_at": "2025-02-18T12:54:19.625479Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:04:00.306402Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-18T12:54:19.625477Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-19T12:53:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31202, "title": "Will Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, call for general elections before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-01-11T11:42:32.170365Z", "open_time": "2025-02-19T12:53:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-23T12:53:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-23T12:53:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Pedro Sánchez](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_S%C3%A1nchez), the Prime Minister of Spain, is facing political and judicial pressure due to [corruption investigations](https://www.politico.eu/article/pedro-sanchez-corruption-probes-socialists-peoples-party/) involving his close circle, including his wife, brother, and former collaborators. Additionally, Sánchez's party, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), [has proposed](https://elpais.com/espana/2025-01-11/el-psoe-acumula-criticas-de-juristas-por-su-propuesta-para-restringir-la-acusacion-popular.html) restricting public prosecution in judicial cases, arguing that this would prevent \"abusive judicial actions\". However, the initiative has drawn criticism from the opposition, legal professionals, and civil society groups that claim it could undermine transparency and potentially shield government officials from corruption investigations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if snap general elections are officially called in Spain before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "Announcements by Sánchez or other officials that elections *will* be called will not suffice to resolve this question. The elections have to actually be called.", "post_id": 31644, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757650598.977406, "end_time": 1758523839.033, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757650598.977406, "end_time": 1758523839.033, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.13880036056391032 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.16128155269333, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.34059650255453483, 0.0, 1.546099230094908, 0.22824074349844825, 0.884170266597878, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 163, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Pedro Sánchez](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_S%C3%A1nchez), the Prime Minister of Spain, is facing political and judicial pressure due to [corruption investigations](https://www.politico.eu/article/pedro-sanchez-corruption-probes-socialists-peoples-party/) involving his close circle, including his wife, brother, and former collaborators. Additionally, Sánchez's party, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), [has proposed](https://elpais.com/espana/2025-01-11/el-psoe-acumula-criticas-de-juristas-por-su-propuesta-para-restringir-la-acusacion-popular.html) restricting public prosecution in judicial cases, arguing that this would prevent \"abusive judicial actions\". However, the initiative has drawn criticism from the opposition, legal professionals, and civil society groups that claim it could undermine transparency and potentially shield government officials from corruption investigations." }, { "id": 31630, "title": "Will we find another inhabitable planet by 2040?", "short_title": "Will we find another inhabitable planet by 2040?", "url_title": "Will we find another inhabitable planet by 2040?", "slug": "will-we-find-another-inhabitable-planet-by-2040", "author_id": 202409, "author_username": "EdwardStoppard", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-10T14:34:46.987880Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T19:03:43.458418Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.925367Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-30T19:03:43.458416Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T14:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-10T14:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-04T18:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31199, "title": "Will we find another inhabitable planet by 2040?", "created_at": "2025-01-10T14:34:46.988285Z", "open_time": "2025-02-04T18:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-08T18:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-08T18:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-10T14:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T14:33:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T14:33:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will we find another inhabitable planet?\n\nThe concept of finding another inhabitable planet has been a constant theme of science fiction, but has also been discussed as a prospect by scientists for decades. [<u>In 1959, American scientist Su-Shu Huang introduced the term “habitable zone”</u>](https://astro.uchicago.edu/alumni/su-shu-huang-1949.php#:~:text=In%20subsequent%20years%2C%20Huang%20began,Astronomical%20Society%20of%20the%20Pacific.), referring to the area around a star where liquid water could exist on a sufficiently large body - a necessity for human colonization. This definition has become the standard for habitability, but just because a planet may lie within the theorised “habitable zone” does not mean it is habitable. [<u>As NASA explains</u>](https://seec.gsfc.nasa.gov/what_makes_a_planet_habitable.html#:~:text=The%20standard%20definition%20for%20a,water%2C%20energy%2C%20and%20nutrients.), “planets orbiting stars that produce high levels of X-ray and UV flux … could end up stripped of their atmosphere, leading to a planet that may be warm but completely airless.” \n\n[<u>The search for habitable planets has intensified following the discovery of the first exoplanets in the 1990s</u>](https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/alien-worlds/historic-timeline/#kepler-planet-finding-mission-launches), these being planets that orbit a star outside the solar system. In 2001, the first exoplanet within the “habitable zone” was discovered by astronomers at Geneva University. In 2009, NASA launched the Kepler space telescope on the first mission to survey Earth-sized planets in the habitable-zones. The organisation is planning future missions, most notably the [<u>Habitable Worlds Observatory mission</u>](https://www.planetary.org/articles/meet-habitable-worlds-observatory), a large infrared, optical, and ultraviolet space telescope set to be launched in the 2040s. \n\nThe United States is not the only country seeking to find habitable planets. China, for example, has pledged to launch “[<u>Earth 2.0</u>](https://spacenews.com/china-to-launch-earth-2-0-exoplanet-observatory-in-2028/)” - an exoplanet observatory space - by 2028 to detect planets previously beyond the scope of efforts such as NASA’s Kepler mission. As a result, with efforts increasing in number and sophistication, there is a distinct possibility that another inhabitable planet could be found. ", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, by December 31, 2040, a credible source reports the discovery of a planet outside Earth that meets the following criteria for being classified as \"inhabitable\":\n\n### **Criteria for Inhabitability:**\n\n1. **Environmental Conditions:** The planet must possess environmental conditions capable of sustaining human life without extensive technological modifications, including:\n * An atmosphere with sufficient oxygen levels and manageable levels of toxic gases.\n * Temperatures within a range suitable for human survival (e.g., not requiring constant life-support systems).\n * A source of liquid water.\n2. **Habitability Confirmation:** The habitability of the planet must be confirmed by one or more reputable organizations, such as:\n * NASA, ESA, or another recognized space agency.\n * Peer-reviewed scientific journals reporting findings from observational or exploratory missions.\n\n### **Exclusions:**\n\n* Mere theoretical models or speculation without direct evidence do not qualify.\n* Discoveries of planets that could only be habitable with extensive terraforming or constant life-support technology will not meet the criteria.\n* Reports suggesting partial habitability (e.g., only in limited areas under extreme conditions) will not count.\n\n### **Finality:**\n\nThe discovery must be widely recognized as credible and have no significant disputes or challenges to its validity by December 31, 2040.\n\nIf no such discovery is confirmed by a credible source by the deadline, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31630, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753579455.06627, "end_time": 1787377600.001346, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753579455.06627, "end_time": 1787377600.001346, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06250475241771357 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.1881289445475445, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 1.0146648552492403, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will we find another inhabitable planet?\n\nThe concept of finding another inhabitable planet has been a constant theme of science fiction, but has also been discussed as a prospect by scientists for decades. [<u>In 1959, American scientist Su-Shu Huang introduced the term “habitable zone”</u>](https://astro.uchicago.edu/alumni/su-shu-huang-1949.php#:~:text=In%20subsequent%20years%2C%20Huang%20began,Astronomical%20Society%20of%20the%20Pacific.), referring to the area around a star where liquid water could exist on a sufficiently large body - a necessity for human colonization. This definition has become the standard for habitability, but just because a planet may lie within the theorised “habitable zone” does not mean it is habitable. [<u>As NASA explains</u>](https://seec.gsfc.nasa.gov/what_makes_a_planet_habitable.html#:~:text=The%20standard%20definition%20for%20a,water%2C%20energy%2C%20and%20nutrients.), “planets orbiting stars that produce high levels of X-ray and UV flux … could end up stripped of their atmosphere, leading to a planet that may be warm but completely airless.” \n\n[<u>The search for habitable planets has intensified following the discovery of the first exoplanets in the 1990s</u>](https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/alien-worlds/historic-timeline/#kepler-planet-finding-mission-launches), these being planets that orbit a star outside the solar system. In 2001, the first exoplanet within the “habitable zone” was discovered by astronomers at Geneva University. In 2009, NASA launched the Kepler space telescope on the first mission to survey Earth-sized planets in the habitable-zones. The organisation is planning future missions, most notably the [<u>Habitable Worlds Observatory mission</u>](https://www.planetary.org/articles/meet-habitable-worlds-observatory), a large infrared, optical, and ultraviolet space telescope set to be launched in the 2040s. \n\nThe United States is not the only country seeking to find habitable planets. China, for example, has pledged to launch “[<u>Earth 2.0</u>](https://spacenews.com/china-to-launch-earth-2-0-exoplanet-observatory-in-2028/)” - an exoplanet observatory space - by 2028 to detect planets previously beyond the scope of efforts such as NASA’s Kepler mission. As a result, with efforts increasing in number and sophistication, there is a distinct possibility that another inhabitable planet could be found. " }, { "id": 31620, "title": "Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?", "short_title": "Israel Establishes Government Control of Gaza in 2025?", "url_title": "Israel Establishes Government Control of Gaza in 2025?", "slug": "israel-establishes-government-control-of-gaza-in-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T23:34:59.485407Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:03:12.921672Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T05:55:41.243405Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:03:12.921670Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1162, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:17:12.571702Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:17:12.571702Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31196, "title": "Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T23:34:59.485783Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following [Israel's invasion of Gaza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip) in October 2023, in response to the [October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_7_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel), there has been much uncertainty about how the war ends. Throughout the war [reports](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/middleeast/gaza-war-no-plan-israel-intl-cmd/index.html) have [claimed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/with-no-exit-strategy-israel-gaza-critics-fear-an-open-ended-stay-2024-10-25/) that Israel does not have an exit strategy, and the path to peace and a return to standard governance in Gaza is unclear. One [recent report](https://www.reuters.com/world/uae-in-talks-with-us-israel-about-provisional-government-post-war-gaza-2025-01-07/) claims that the United Arab Emirates has discussed creating a temporary international administration in Gaza.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, during calendar year 2025, Israel establishes a formal government in the Gaza Strip headed primarily by Israelis or otherwise takes formal control of key territory in the Gaza Strip.", "fine_print": "* The government need not formally govern all of the Gaza Strip, so long as an established government is reported as having jurisdiction over at least 50% of the Gaza Strip by area.\n* [*De facto*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_facto) military or governmental control of the Gaza Strip does not count, only a formally established government counts.\n* Announcement of intention to establish a government is not sufficient, a government must actually be established.\n* An established government will be considered to be headed primarily by Israelis if\n * The head of government is an Israeli citizen, in the case of a single head of government.\n * At least one head of government is an Israeli citizen, if the government has multiple heads (e.g., both a President and a Prime Minister).\n * At least 50% of the body leading the government consists of Israeli citizens, in the case of a council or similar.\n* A provisional, transitional, caretaker, or otherwise temporary government, for example one formed until elections are held, will be considered to be an established government and will resolve this question as **Yes** if it satisfies these criteria.\n* Formal annexation of at least 50% of the Gaza Strip by area will also result in the question resolving as **Yes**, upon the government formally and publicly approving annexation. The timeline and method for actual implementation, as well as the existence of legal challenges or appeals, are immaterial.", "post_id": 31620, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757841737.601355, "end_time": 1758167588.581, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757841737.601355, "end_time": 1758167588.581, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.08606086848082582 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.135034644717025, 3.585227909973671, 5.387997227199255, 4.800071861522547, 2.748770015401615, 1.6878755201816174, 1.4809425092858621, 0.6797496003410746, 2.306996615619404, 0.5025637911419241, 0.850401311717746, 0.6602591669907578, 0.5823575365364553, 0.02054080760705375, 0.050850638319273764, 1.0680060584424638, 0.1331012645204907, 0.0, 2.372464363033989e-05, 0.02456528112666696, 0.24700581630593987, 0.0, 0.07435663015749694, 0.0, 8.080591192809899e-05, 0.020600012447396402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06519041937343922, 0.0, 0.009490355167486435, 0.5588418145678883, 0.0, 1.7180760642647333e-05, 0.014137980437062313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024073417033114265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122209896165423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014612379512357343, 0.0015424283520096835, 0.0019089865735157773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4139761147320499, 0.0004315980908460823, 0.03249375362866948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5229094961101963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24743452695942197 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1995, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following [Israel's invasion of Gaza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip) in October 2023, in response to the [October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_7_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel), there has been much uncertainty about how the war ends. Throughout the war [reports](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/middleeast/gaza-war-no-plan-israel-intl-cmd/index.html) have [claimed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/with-no-exit-strategy-israel-gaza-critics-fear-an-open-ended-stay-2024-10-25/) that Israel does not have an exit strategy, and the path to peace and a return to standard governance in Gaza is unclear. One [recent report](https://www.reuters.com/world/uae-in-talks-with-us-israel-about-provisional-government-post-war-gaza-2025-01-07/) claims that the United Arab Emirates has discussed creating a temporary international administration in Gaza." }, { "id": 31615, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-there-be-a-us-china-war-before-2035", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:09:19.218594Z", "published_at": "2025-01-20T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.968274Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-20T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31191, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:09:19.218594Z", "open_time": "2025-01-20T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve negatively.\r\n\r\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\r\n\r\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31615, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737389924.845727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737389924.845727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.135366053296602 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.894555603876251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2834616846895468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7361027987362563, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 2.424144558597922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea." }, { "id": 31612, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:09:18.813970Z", "published_at": "2025-01-20T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.460155Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 74, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-12T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-20T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31188, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:09:18.813970Z", "open_time": "2025-01-20T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-12T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing *beyond* the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\r\n\r\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a human born prior to January 1, 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150.", "fine_print": "* A qualifying individual must reach the age of 150 in or before 2150, and a period of cryo-preservation would not count toward that total. For example, someone born before 2001 who was cryofrozen in 2075 and revived in 2120 who then lived until after 2150 would not count as having reached the age of 150, as 45 of those years had been under cryo-preservation.\r\n* The human lifespan must be experienced in primarily the same body. Mind-uploading or similar processes that replace all or nearly all of the individual would not count.", "post_id": 31612, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737389968.301158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737389968.301158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.045992306662307254 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6764464662177382, 2.237140209862277, 0.0, 0.0, 3.36218984960653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5317377872800219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing *beyond* the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\r\n\r\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind." }, { "id": 31611, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will humans go extinct before 2100?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-humans-go-extinct-before-2100", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:09:18.768201Z", "published_at": "2025-01-20T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.975155Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-11T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-20T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31187, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will humans go extinct before 2100?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:09:18.768201Z", "open_time": "2025-01-20T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-11T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\r\n\r\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no known humans alive on January 1, 2100. For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.\r\n\r\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31611, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737389938.444403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737389938.444403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06758240545467141 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5305774692409481, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 4.143301313741935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49813681085464373, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\r\n\r\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'." }, { "id": 31605, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-there-be-a-us-china-war-before-2035", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:08:48.666924Z", "published_at": "2025-01-19T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.391870Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-19T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31181, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:08:48.666924Z", "open_time": "2025-01-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve negatively.\r\n\r\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\r\n\r\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31605, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737303405.769088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737303405.769088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19247171987016976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6233153909997466, 0.4177035342880956, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1205731806724293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3496327801382463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea." }, { "id": 31602, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:08:48.220020Z", "published_at": "2025-01-19T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.473838Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-12T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-19T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31178, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:08:48.220020Z", "open_time": "2025-01-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-12T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing *beyond* the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\r\n\r\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a human born prior to January 1, 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150.", "fine_print": "* A qualifying individual must reach the age of 150 in or before 2150, and a period of cryo-preservation would not count toward that total. For example, someone born before 2001 who was cryofrozen in 2075 and revived in 2120 who then lived until after 2150 would not count as having reached the age of 150, as 45 of those years had been under cryo-preservation.\r\n* The human lifespan must be experienced in primarily the same body. Mind-uploading or similar processes that replace all or nearly all of the individual would not count.", "post_id": 31602, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737303580.436852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737303580.436852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.053777505265934944 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.133785908474747, 1.7653423179917582, 0.0, 2.3925877447309682, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7108062883045283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing *beyond* the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\r\n\r\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind." }, { "id": 31601, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will humans go extinct before 2100?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-humans-go-extinct-before-2100", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:08:48.167908Z", "published_at": "2025-01-19T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.334171Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 79, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-11T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-19T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31177, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will humans go extinct before 2100?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:08:48.167908Z", "open_time": "2025-01-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-11T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\r\n\r\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no known humans alive on January 1, 2100. For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.\r\n\r\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31601, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737303510.467699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737303510.467699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06039148370717919 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5080317425400386, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 2.6391427392565374, 0.772330576101931, 1.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 1.0917180344504485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\r\n\r\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'." }, { "id": 31595, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-there-be-a-us-china-war-before-2035", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:08:19.233435Z", "published_at": "2025-01-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.197911Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-18T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-18T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31171, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:08:19.233435Z", "open_time": "2025-01-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-18T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-18T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-18T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-18T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve negatively.\r\n\r\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\r\n\r\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31595, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737217177.742367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737217177.742367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.15622376916267747 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0969339922552588, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7302134554380197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea." } ] }
