Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1300
{ "count": 5901, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1320", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1280", "results": [ { "id": 31525, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-there-be-a-us-china-war-before-2035", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:04:49.338850Z", "published_at": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.044697Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31101, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:04:49.338850Z", "open_time": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve negatively.\r\n\r\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\r\n\r\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736612829.369077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11199999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.131 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736612829.369077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11199999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.131 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.869, 0.131 ], "means": [ 0.131 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea." }, { "id": 31522, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:04:48.863447Z", "published_at": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.731340Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-12T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31098, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:04:48.863447Z", "open_time": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-12T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing *beyond* the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\r\n\r\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a human born prior to January 1, 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150.", "fine_print": "* A qualifying individual must reach the age of 150 in or before 2150, and a period of cryo-preservation would not count toward that total. For example, someone born before 2001 who was cryofrozen in 2075 and revived in 2120 who then lived until after 2150 would not count as having reached the age of 150, as 45 of those years had been under cryo-preservation.\r\n* The human lifespan must be experienced in primarily the same body. Mind-uploading or similar processes that replace all or nearly all of the individual would not count.", "post_id": 31522, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736612256.411965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.016 ], "centers": [ 0.08299999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736612256.411965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.016 ], "centers": [ 0.08299999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.917, 0.08299999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.08299999999999999 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing *beyond* the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\r\n\r\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind." }, { "id": 31521, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will humans go extinct before 2100?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-humans-go-extinct-before-2100", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:04:48.812662Z", "published_at": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.444093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-11T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31097, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will humans go extinct before 2100?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T22:04:48.812662Z", "open_time": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-11T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\r\n\r\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no known humans alive on January 1, 2100. For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.\r\n\r\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31521, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736612088.520539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.064 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08800000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736612088.520539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.064 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08800000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9359999999999999, 0.064 ], "means": [ 0.064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\r\n\r\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'." }, { "id": 31505, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-there-be-a-us-china-war-before-2035", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:59:35.537388Z", "published_at": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.905493Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31081, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:59:35.537388Z", "open_time": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve negatively.\r\n\r\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\r\n\r\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31505, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736611174.977113, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22999999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736611174.977113, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22999999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.22999999999999998 ], "means": [ 0.22999999999999998 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea." }, { "id": 31502, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:59:35.114352Z", "published_at": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.531488Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-12T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31078, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:59:35.114352Z", "open_time": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-12T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing *beyond* the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\r\n\r\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a human born prior to January 1, 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150.", "fine_print": "* A qualifying individual must reach the age of 150 in or before 2150, and a period of cryo-preservation would not count toward that total. For example, someone born before 2001 who was cryofrozen in 2075 and revived in 2120 who then lived until after 2150 would not count as having reached the age of 150, as 45 of those years had been under cryo-preservation.\r\n* The human lifespan must be experienced in primarily the same body. Mind-uploading or similar processes that replace all or nearly all of the individual would not count.", "post_id": 31502, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736610419.351671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22199999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.294 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736610419.351671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22199999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.294 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.778, 0.22199999999999998 ], "means": [ 0.22199999999999998 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing *beyond* the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\r\n\r\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind." }, { "id": 31501, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will humans go extinct before 2100?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-humans-go-extinct-before-2100", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:59:35.072163Z", "published_at": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.090211Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-11T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31077, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will humans go extinct before 2100?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:59:35.072163Z", "open_time": "2025-01-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-11T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-12T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\r\n\r\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no known humans alive on January 1, 2100. For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.\r\n\r\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31501, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736610237.126237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.065 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736610237.126237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.065 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.935, 0.065 ], "means": [ 0.065 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\r\n\r\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'." }, { "id": 31485, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-there-be-a-us-china-war-before-2035", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:58:31.823438Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.336576Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-05T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T18:51:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31061, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:58:31.823438Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-05T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T18:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T18:51:58.195507Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve negatively.\r\n\r\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\r\n\r\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31485, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736535787.339802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736535787.339802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.14229281500518956 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea." }, { "id": 31482, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:58:31.353768Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.377985Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T01:20:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31058, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:58:31.353768Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T01:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-03T01:23:02.122130Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing *beyond* the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\r\n\r\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a human born prior to January 1, 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150.", "fine_print": "* A qualifying individual must reach the age of 150 in or before 2150, and a period of cryo-preservation would not count toward that total. For example, someone born before 2001 who was cryofrozen in 2075 and revived in 2120 who then lived until after 2150 would not count as having reached the age of 150, as 45 of those years had been under cryo-preservation.\r\n* The human lifespan must be experienced in primarily the same body. Mind-uploading or similar processes that replace all or nearly all of the individual would not count.", "post_id": 31482, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736535744.242203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736535744.242203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.09233256559451225 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing *beyond* the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\r\n\r\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind." }, { "id": 31481, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will humans go extinct before 2100?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-humans-go-extinct-before-2100", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:58:31.309475Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.236050Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T15:54:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31057, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will humans go extinct before 2100?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:58:31.309475Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T15:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T15:55:26.657313Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-11T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\r\n\r\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no known humans alive on January 1, 2100. For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.\r\n\r\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31481, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736535728.812658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.032 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736535728.812658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.032 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.968, 0.032 ], "means": [ 0.0370252495974886 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4809217002026323, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\r\n\r\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'." }, { "id": 31460, "title": "Will the US government announce the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "US name change of the Gulf of Mexico before Apr 1, 2025?", "url_title": "US name change of the Gulf of Mexico before Apr 1, 2025?", "slug": "us-name-change-of-the-gulf-of-mexico-before-apr-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:55:00.704168Z", "published_at": "2025-01-17T15:22:59.731788Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.246655Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-17T15:22:59.731786Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-21T01:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T01:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31036, "title": "Will the US government announce the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T20:55:00.704520Z", "open_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T01:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T02:51:39.910267Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-21T01:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In a press conference on January 7, 2025, President-Elect Donald Trump [said](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-mar-a-lago-january-7-2025/): \n\n> We're going to be changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, which has a beautiful ring. That covers a lot of territory. The Gulf of America, what a beautiful name and it's appropriate. It's appropriate. And Mexico has to stop allowing millions of people to pour into our country. They can stop them.\n\nIn 2015, the US government under President Barack Obama [renamed](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/08/30/obama-rename-nations-tallest-mountain/71426656/) Mount McKinley to Mount Denali through an order signed by the the Interior Secretary. The Department of the Interior oversees the [United States Board on Geographic Names](https://www.usgs.gov/us-board-on-geographic-names), which maintains the [Geographic Names Information System](https://edits.nationalmap.gov/apps/gaz-domestic/public/search/names), a database of place names.\n\nAdditionally, certain members of Congress [have promised](https://www.axios.com/2025/01/07/mtg-trump-gulf-of-mexico-america-bill) to try to make the name change a reality through congressional action, with Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia [tweeting](https://x.com/RepMTG/status/1877471320348262563): \n\n> Today, I officially introduced my bill to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America.\n> \n> Mexican cartels currently use the Gulf of Mexico to traffic humans, drugs, weapons, and God knows what else while the Mexican government allows them to do it.\n> \n> The American people are footing the bill to protect and secure the maritime waterways for commerce to be conducted. Our U.S. armed forces protect the area from any military threats from foreign countries.\n> \n> It’s our gulf. The rightful name is the Gulf of America and it’s what the entire world should refer to it as.\n> \n> Immediately following President Trump’s announcement, I directed my staff to get the bill drafted. I submitted the bill this afternoon with 14 original cosponsors.\n> \n> My bill directs the Chairman of the Board on Geographic Names under the Secretary of the Interior to rename all federal documents and maps within 180 days of being signed into law.\n\nNotably, passing a bill in Congress [would require](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm) 60 votes in the US Senate. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, the United States federal government officially announces the plan or action of changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico. This can come through an official action of the Executive Branch (e.g., a presidential order, an administration action by the Department of the Interior, an announcement by the United States Board on Geographic Names, etc.) or an act of Congress. Question resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* This question pertains only to the US federal government. For purposes of this question, \"changing the name\" is defined as the Gulf of Mexico being [standardized](https://blogs.loc.gov/law/2024/09/charting-the-course-what-is-the-u-s-board-on-geographic-names/) differently in usage across the US government. Whether US states, other countries, or any other entities such as mapmakers follow suit in renaming the Gulf of Mexico has no effect on resolution.\n* The US federal government's renaming of the Gulf of Mexico need not take effect before April 1, 2025. This question resolves based on an official announcement. \n* Vague statements such as President Trump, his press secretary or other officials saying that this is favored or desired in the future will not be considered a valid announcement. For purposes of this question, a renaming announcement will count only when it is announced in a manner in which there is authority to enact the name change. \n* Because this question resolves based solely on an announcement, legal challenges will not affect resolution of this question.", "post_id": 31460, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737426399.171313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737426399.171313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.5668439138645779 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2139942392790584, 1.0644634174904053 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 0.2934950031271753, "peer_score": 0.26476723559185067, "coverage": 0.007334493464840528, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9604326179222754, "spot_peer_score": 45.85332969372452, "spot_baseline_score": 33.34237337251918, "baseline_archived_score": 0.2934950031271753, "peer_archived_score": 0.26476723559185067, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 45.85332969372452, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 33.34237337251918 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In a press conference on January 7, 2025, President-Elect Donald Trump [said](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-mar-a-lago-january-7-2025/): \n\n> We're going to be changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, which has a beautiful ring. That covers a lot of territory. The Gulf of America, what a beautiful name and it's appropriate. It's appropriate. And Mexico has to stop allowing millions of people to pour into our country. They can stop them.\n\nIn 2015, the US government under President Barack Obama [renamed](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/08/30/obama-rename-nations-tallest-mountain/71426656/) Mount McKinley to Mount Denali through an order signed by the the Interior Secretary. The Department of the Interior oversees the [United States Board on Geographic Names](https://www.usgs.gov/us-board-on-geographic-names), which maintains the [Geographic Names Information System](https://edits.nationalmap.gov/apps/gaz-domestic/public/search/names), a database of place names.\n\nAdditionally, certain members of Congress [have promised](https://www.axios.com/2025/01/07/mtg-trump-gulf-of-mexico-america-bill) to try to make the name change a reality through congressional action, with Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia [tweeting](https://x.com/RepMTG/status/1877471320348262563): \n\n> Today, I officially introduced my bill to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America.\n> \n> Mexican cartels currently use the Gulf of Mexico to traffic humans, drugs, weapons, and God knows what else while the Mexican government allows them to do it.\n> \n> The American people are footing the bill to protect and secure the maritime waterways for commerce to be conducted. Our U.S. armed forces protect the area from any military threats from foreign countries.\n> \n> It’s our gulf. The rightful name is the Gulf of America and it’s what the entire world should refer to it as.\n> \n> Immediately following President Trump’s announcement, I directed my staff to get the bill drafted. I submitted the bill this afternoon with 14 original cosponsors.\n> \n> My bill directs the Chairman of the Board on Geographic Names under the Secretary of the Interior to rename all federal documents and maps within 180 days of being signed into law.\n\nNotably, passing a bill in Congress [would require](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm) 60 votes in the US Senate. " }, { "id": 31426, "title": "Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Large non-contained California fires on Feb 15, 2025?", "url_title": "Large non-contained California fires on Feb 15, 2025?", "slug": "large-non-contained-california-fires-on-feb-15-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T13:04:15.515834Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:03:26.146525Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.528580Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:03:26.146523Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-15T21:42:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 182, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31002, "title": "Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T13:04:15.516196Z", "open_time": "2025-01-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-15T21:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-16T01:00:28.429248Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "California's wildfire season [traditionally peaks](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/08/weather/southern-california-fire-winds-dry.html) from late summer through early winter. However, in early January 2025, Southern California [is grappling](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/california-los-angeles-fire-pacific-palidades-la-evacuation-latest-news-wctv8656d) with several significant wildfires which have consumed over 25,000 acres around Los Angeles and resulted in at least five fatalities. These fires are exacerbated by powerful Santa Ana winds, with gusts reaching up to 100 mph, and [exceptionally dry conditions](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2025/01/los-angeles-fires-drought/681243/) due to the lack of substantial rainfall in the preceding months. As of January 9, 2025, another round of Santa Ana winds [is expected](https://abcnews.go.com/US/us-weather-winds-wildfire-los-angeles-california-thursday/story?id=117496931) to further worsen conditions, with a critical fire risk being issued for most of the area.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if on February 15, at 20:00 UTC, the [incidents page](https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents) of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's website shows at least one fire under \"Currently Active Incidents\" with both\n\n* at least 1,000 acres\n* less than 80% containment.", "fine_print": "If the website appears to not be up-to-date, Metaculus might resolve this question using alternative credible sources.", "post_id": 31426, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739525709.642175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 173, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739525709.642175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 173, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.051501058004869024 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.30827906634947, 2.250032234696761, 1.939300842594692, 1.2397267028720798, 0.5145033686344177, 0.8797752757444725, 0.0914789075069809, 0.11097001072048839, 0.3124246768494593, 0.005705354031165785, 0.021800595968667808, 0.022110570979255492, 0.07545958573103262, 0.0027333544175869463, 0.004203655857284711, 0.04094351540579804, 0.007396597463593333, 1.0963975321452981e-05, 0.03490980768245681, 0.0, 0.09290765863265493, 0.013047205937819085, 0.031193218749050684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01185636204530776, 0.0, 0.3027991105427594, 0.00812002038362454, 0.0, 0.007627896284689704, 0.008854790519369122, 0.011190473979684624, 0.0, 0.0001059072933078404, 0.14544252644693187, 0.0, 0.01854055010461133, 0.0009998068580689347, 0.0, 0.0008500767591560469, 0.009394178747444646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03864060929128125, 0.0018412845285900616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4764374522620796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4567452144776883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001698133809575054, 0.0, 8.179544085384053e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016613140509183437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13941167950284586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009962346003031362, 0.002450365677543088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14201451937042617 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.10175547689022, "peer_score": 19.28199502176313, "coverage": 0.9999147006702773, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999147006702773, "spot_peer_score": 11.680814272197118, "spot_baseline_score": 60.40713236688608, "baseline_archived_score": 81.10175547689022, "peer_archived_score": 19.28199502176313, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.680814272197118, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.40713236688608 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 810, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "California's wildfire season [traditionally peaks](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/08/weather/southern-california-fire-winds-dry.html) from late summer through early winter. However, in early January 2025, Southern California [is grappling](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/california-los-angeles-fire-pacific-palidades-la-evacuation-latest-news-wctv8656d) with several significant wildfires which have consumed over 25,000 acres around Los Angeles and resulted in at least five fatalities. These fires are exacerbated by powerful Santa Ana winds, with gusts reaching up to 100 mph, and [exceptionally dry conditions](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2025/01/los-angeles-fires-drought/681243/) due to the lack of substantial rainfall in the preceding months. As of January 9, 2025, another round of Santa Ana winds [is expected](https://abcnews.go.com/US/us-weather-winds-wildfire-los-angeles-california-thursday/story?id=117496931) to further worsen conditions, with a critical fire risk being issued for most of the area." }, { "id": 31373, "title": "Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?", "short_title": "Greenland announces independence referendum by Apr 6, 2025?", "url_title": "Greenland announces independence referendum by Apr 6, 2025?", "slug": "greenland-announces-independence-referendum-by-apr-6-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-09T02:13:48.497936Z", "published_at": "2025-01-24T18:32:46.761814Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.885529Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-24T18:32:46.761811Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-23T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-23T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-06T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-06T01:12:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 155, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31000, "title": "Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-09T02:13:48.498283Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-06T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-06T01:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-06T01:13:06.769169Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-23T16:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-23T16:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Greenland, population 56,000, is [the largest non-continent island in the world](https://denmark.dk/people-and-culture/greenland) and has been settled for 4,000-5,000 years. As of the writing of this question, Greenland is a Danish territory which has been [self-governing since 1979](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-would-greenlands-independence-mean-arctic) and which unveiled a draft constitution in 2023, a move that was widely regarded as an important milestone on its journey to independence. In November 2008, 75% of Greenlanders [voted for](https://visitgreenland.com/articles/greenlands-modern-path-to-independence/) the Self-Government Act, which greatly expanded the island's autonomy. Under an agreement signed with Denmark the next year, Greenland can declare independence after a successful referendum.\n\nGreenland has potentially the [second largest](https://ip-quarterly.com/en/dont-buy-greenland-buy-its-minerals) reserves of rare earth deposits in the world potentially offering an [alternative source](https://chinaobservers.eu/de-risking-rare-earths-the-greenland-stalemate-and-the-critical-raw-materials-act/) for the United States and its European allies, which are dependent on China for much of their supply. Rare earths [are essential components](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/why-world-turning-to-greenlands-rare-earth-metals/32694/) of a wide range of modern technological products, ranging from cell phones to electric vehicles.\n\nFrom a geopolitical perspective, Greenland is strategically located in the Arctic, home to Thule Air Base and close enough to Russia to make it a potential support point for tracking Russian military operations [according to CSIS](https://www.csis.org/analysis/geopolitics-and-neglected-arctic-spaces):\n\n\n\nOn Tuesday January 8, 2025, then-President Elect Donald Trump [said](https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-greenland-panama-criticism-us-expansion/), \"We need Greenland for national security purposes.\" His eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., [landed in Greenland](https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-not-for-sale-danish-pm-mette-frederiksen-us-donald-trump-jr/) for a visit, with President-Elect Trump [writing](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113787590758180339):\n\n> Don Jr. and my Reps landing in Greenland. The reception has been great. They, and the Free World, need safety, security, strength, and PEACE! This is a deal that must happen. MAGA. MAKE GREENLAND GREAT AGAIN!\n\nSince Denmark [has firmly rejected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/greenland-is-not-sale-its-leader-says-response-trump-2024-12-23/) the notion of America buying Greenland, another path to becoming part of the United State might lie in an independence referendum. Greenland is holding parliamentary elections in April 2025, and Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede [has hinted](https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-prime-minister-mute-egede-independence-denmark-colonialism-donald-trump-arctic/) that a referendum on independence could come in tandem with those elections. \n\nSee Also \n\n* Euro News: [Greenland's PM pushes for independence from Denmark amid Trump's interest](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/01/03/greenlands-pm-pushes-for-independence-from-denmark-amid-trumps-interest) \n* Wikipedia: [Independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_referendum) (includes historical list of independence referendums)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 6, 2025, the government of Greenland or any of its agencies officially announce (according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)) a specific date on which a referendum on independence from Denmark is scheduled. If no such announcement occurs before April 6, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31373, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742656996.138866, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742656996.138866, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.993, 0.007 ], "means": [ 0.02974088003304791 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.73029549472195, 5.044693954605676, 0.5762408300198522, 0.620331931140272, 0.09127668679463284, 1.1598804525919049, 0.015121211737458066, 0.1559905540811647, 0.0306894040143019, 0.3376811727541208, 0.03424857858556946, 0.002389886957995197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005259434340531541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.9645673795489656e-05, 0.22494981082339838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07940424421109349, 0.0, 0.00020555900945906638, 0.0, 0.031775728267309046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09294514827324636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3728283471504352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01735671576603754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014886128163948754, 0.0, 0.002897154868095117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001140110852669517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015882651392410054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005367503601643788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07490572318656831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008139932386546261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049218273047918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026336717521666594 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.61688209284813, "peer_score": 21.738408175959897, "coverage": 0.999988918460692, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999988918460692, "spot_peer_score": 23.58591834681634, "spot_baseline_score": 83.18772411916731, "baseline_archived_score": 92.61688209284813, "peer_archived_score": 21.738408175959897, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.58591834681634, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 83.18772411916731 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 883, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Greenland, population 56,000, is [the largest non-continent island in the world](https://denmark.dk/people-and-culture/greenland) and has been settled for 4,000-5,000 years. As of the writing of this question, Greenland is a Danish territory which has been [self-governing since 1979](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-would-greenlands-independence-mean-arctic) and which unveiled a draft constitution in 2023, a move that was widely regarded as an important milestone on its journey to independence. In November 2008, 75% of Greenlanders [voted for](https://visitgreenland.com/articles/greenlands-modern-path-to-independence/) the Self-Government Act, which greatly expanded the island's autonomy. Under an agreement signed with Denmark the next year, Greenland can declare independence after a successful referendum.\n\nGreenland has potentially the [second largest](https://ip-quarterly.com/en/dont-buy-greenland-buy-its-minerals) reserves of rare earth deposits in the world potentially offering an [alternative source](https://chinaobservers.eu/de-risking-rare-earths-the-greenland-stalemate-and-the-critical-raw-materials-act/) for the United States and its European allies, which are dependent on China for much of their supply. Rare earths [are essential components](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/why-world-turning-to-greenlands-rare-earth-metals/32694/) of a wide range of modern technological products, ranging from cell phones to electric vehicles.\n\nFrom a geopolitical perspective, Greenland is strategically located in the Arctic, home to Thule Air Base and close enough to Russia to make it a potential support point for tracking Russian military operations [according to CSIS](https://www.csis.org/analysis/geopolitics-and-neglected-arctic-spaces):\n\n\n\nOn Tuesday January 8, 2025, then-President Elect Donald Trump [said](https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-greenland-panama-criticism-us-expansion/), \"We need Greenland for national security purposes.\" His eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., [landed in Greenland](https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-not-for-sale-danish-pm-mette-frederiksen-us-donald-trump-jr/) for a visit, with President-Elect Trump [writing](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113787590758180339):\n\n> Don Jr. and my Reps landing in Greenland. The reception has been great. They, and the Free World, need safety, security, strength, and PEACE! This is a deal that must happen. MAGA. MAKE GREENLAND GREAT AGAIN!\n\nSince Denmark [has firmly rejected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/greenland-is-not-sale-its-leader-says-response-trump-2024-12-23/) the notion of America buying Greenland, another path to becoming part of the United State might lie in an independence referendum. Greenland is holding parliamentary elections in April 2025, and Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede [has hinted](https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-prime-minister-mute-egede-independence-denmark-colonialism-donald-trump-arctic/) that a referendum on independence could come in tandem with those elections. \n\nSee Also \n\n* Euro News: [Greenland's PM pushes for independence from Denmark amid Trump's interest](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/01/03/greenlands-pm-pushes-for-independence-from-denmark-amid-trumps-interest) \n* Wikipedia: [Independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_referendum) (includes historical list of independence referendums)" }, { "id": 31359, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index experience a drawdown of at least 40% before 2027?", "short_title": "S&P 500 drawdown of at least 40% before 2027?", "url_title": "S&P 500 drawdown of at least 40% before 2027?", "slug": "sp-500-drawdown-of-at-least-40-before-2027", "author_id": 239462, "author_username": "cporro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-08T03:42:54.575637Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T02:15:10.617631Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T00:25:51.400933Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-20T02:15:10.617628Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-23T02:12:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30981, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index experience a drawdown of at least 40% before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-01-08T03:42:54.576035Z", "open_time": "2025-02-23T02:12:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-26T02:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-26T02:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A market drawdown is the decline in value of an investment, portfolio, or market index from its peak to its trough during a specific period. Historical market drawdowns provide important context. The Great Depression marked the most severe drawdown [at approximately 86%](https://www.invesco.com/content/dam/invesco/emea/en/pdf/T_con_zero-bear_necessities_apr_2020.pdf). More recent significant drawdowns include the [dot-com crash at 47% and the 2008 financial crisis at 55%](https://www.washoecounty.gov/humanresources/board_committees/deferred_compensation/2020/08-12-2020%20Item%209%20S%20and%20P%20500%20Index%20Drawdown%20Chart.pdf). Since 1980, the United States has experienced a recession approximately every 9 years.\n\nRecessions and significant market drawdowns are inherently multifactor events, influenced by a complex interplay of economic, political, and global dynamics. Over the last 60 years, several key factors have contributed to these downturns. Economic overheating, characterized by excessive speculation and high inflation, preceded downturns like the [1970s stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) and the [2000 dot-com bubble burst](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble). Policy missteps, such as tight monetary policies to combat inflation, have often been pivotal; for instance, the Federal Reserve's [rate hikes in the late 1970s and early 1980s](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/05/business/inflation-investing-paul-volcker.html), or the [unexpected tightening in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_bond_market_crisis).\n\nGeopolitical events, including [oil embargoes in the 1970s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_oil_crisis), the [Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis), and more recently, global tensions and trade wars, have also played significant roles in destabilizing economies. Financial system vulnerabilities, like the [savings and loan crisis in the late 1980s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis) or the [subprime mortgage crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis) leading to the 2007-2009 financial crisis, demonstrate how systemic issues within the banking sector can ignite widespread economic downturns. Additionally, unexpected shocks, such as the global impact of the [COVID-19 pandemic in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), illustrate how external, unforeseen events can abruptly alter economic landscapes. Each recession or market drawdown has its unique combination of these and other factors, highlighting the complexity and unpredictability of economic cycles.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if on any day before January 1, 2027, the S\\&P 500 closes at least 40% below its previous all-time high close value.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the Close column of the [Yahoo Finance historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/). If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, Metaculus might choose an alternative credible source to resolve this questions.", "post_id": 31359, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757895940.739347, "end_time": 1759536910.26, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757895940.739347, "end_time": 1759536910.26, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.48262984178968515 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.198634344500686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.3022135829173027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.47234408875173944, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5394303752836036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A market drawdown is the decline in value of an investment, portfolio, or market index from its peak to its trough during a specific period. Historical market drawdowns provide important context. The Great Depression marked the most severe drawdown [at approximately 86%](https://www.invesco.com/content/dam/invesco/emea/en/pdf/T_con_zero-bear_necessities_apr_2020.pdf). More recent significant drawdowns include the [dot-com crash at 47% and the 2008 financial crisis at 55%](https://www.washoecounty.gov/humanresources/board_committees/deferred_compensation/2020/08-12-2020%20Item%209%20S%20and%20P%20500%20Index%20Drawdown%20Chart.pdf). Since 1980, the United States has experienced a recession approximately every 9 years.\n\nRecessions and significant market drawdowns are inherently multifactor events, influenced by a complex interplay of economic, political, and global dynamics. Over the last 60 years, several key factors have contributed to these downturns. Economic overheating, characterized by excessive speculation and high inflation, preceded downturns like the [1970s stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) and the [2000 dot-com bubble burst](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble). Policy missteps, such as tight monetary policies to combat inflation, have often been pivotal; for instance, the Federal Reserve's [rate hikes in the late 1970s and early 1980s](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/05/business/inflation-investing-paul-volcker.html), or the [unexpected tightening in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_bond_market_crisis).\n\nGeopolitical events, including [oil embargoes in the 1970s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_oil_crisis), the [Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis), and more recently, global tensions and trade wars, have also played significant roles in destabilizing economies. Financial system vulnerabilities, like the [savings and loan crisis in the late 1980s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis) or the [subprime mortgage crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis) leading to the 2007-2009 financial crisis, demonstrate how systemic issues within the banking sector can ignite widespread economic downturns. Additionally, unexpected shocks, such as the global impact of the [COVID-19 pandemic in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), illustrate how external, unforeseen events can abruptly alter economic landscapes. Each recession or market drawdown has its unique combination of these and other factors, highlighting the complexity and unpredictability of economic cycles." }, { "id": 31357, "title": "Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?", "short_title": "Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?", "url_title": "Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?", "slug": "leadership-change-us-foreign-adversaries-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-07T16:42:57.445735Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:40:20.507710Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:38:12.637097Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:40:20.507708Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1741, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T10:50:07.184004Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T10:50:07.184004Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30980, "title": "Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-07T16:42:57.446173Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n\n> any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n\nBeing designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n\nAs of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n\n> (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> \n> (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> \n> (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> \n> (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> \n> (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> \n> (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:\n\n1. Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.\n2. Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.\n3. Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.\n4. Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.\n5. Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.\n6. Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the 6 happens for at least one full week, even if the previous order is afterwards restored within 2025.\n* If any of the titles ceases to exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** *only if* the corresponding individual no longer holds the highest office in the country. For example, if the title of President of Russia ceased to exist, this question would *not* resolve as **Yes** if Putin became the Prime Minister.\n* Regardless of the circumstances, if any of the named individuals continues to legally hold their respective office within their country (for example if they are on a medical leave of absence or have been stripped of day-to-day powers), that individual will not contribute to the question resolving as **Yes**.", "post_id": 31357, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757921882.233903, "end_time": 1758250231.591, "forecaster_count": 283, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757921882.233903, "end_time": 1758250231.591, "forecaster_count": 283, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17287574829255906 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2600529295779865, 0.7907437327215769, 0.00013840174478018172, 0.399864267514465, 0.8613604174321395, 0.017940671609291296, 0.30056101837985866, 0.4861052664258093, 2.4020793278400325, 0.0, 1.1980182889683366, 1.6005337257320789, 1.3370016597673686, 1.312812261546692, 1.8900272868936652, 4.651478783862975, 0.15115955896235164, 0.3317426669490183, 2.498728484926102, 0.09151946917956875, 5.3834693699025395, 0.38176486218621447, 1.8193112441218292e-06, 0.43626160418827165, 0.3772261262819501, 2.0657983953024215, 0.004753549217497589, 0.08907959481020467, 0.1543619431873428, 0.0, 0.6503940393249655, 0.0, 0.03331449340019964, 0.8108898521643145, 0.01666104731951208, 0.003971255523145822, 0.023720764052390746, 0.03457647971909226, 0.0, 2.959849846705097e-05, 0.0863614959413718, 0.0022529008690724594, 0.0, 0.04260496842351131, 0.0011445677546106819, 0.029396706425417918, 0.005737681606369551, 0.013668795358730567, 0.0003198560670361591, 0.0, 0.006080126621258588, 0.49760679364196947, 0.017327533575791202, 3.86439702280172e-06, 0.0, 0.00016682496038738213, 2.7941909943979545e-07, 0.0046212932029386965, 0.0, 0.01873482359471014, 0.009971076003767098, 0.0002629200486459327, 0.0013938953024635915, 0.00709573234216866, 0.0, 0.004827248954692728, 0.0, 0.0012104297440963436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09912092948153362, 0.0, 0.00911122427887979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020248021824332448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011430535374508329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03707343577075731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008896834166675086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035448339746504964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1786492772451018 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 58, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3076, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n\n> any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n\nBeing designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n\nAs of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n\n> (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> \n> (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> \n> (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> \n> (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> \n> (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> \n> (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime)." }, { "id": 31348, "title": "Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?", "short_title": "US Government Releases Additional Epstein Documents in 2025?", "url_title": "US Government Releases Additional Epstein Documents in 2025?", "slug": "us-government-releases-additional-epstein-documents-in-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-06T23:50:31.631112Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:02:46.930639Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.288958Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:02:46.930636Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-27T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 914, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T10:50:07.184004Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T10:50:07.184004Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30977, "title": "Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-06T23:50:31.631528Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-27T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-03T20:31:51.166730Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Jeffrey Epstein](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein), who accumulated significant wealth [working in the finance industry](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-did-jeffrey-epstein-make-his-money/), was accused in recent decades of a number of sex crimes, and in 2019 was [formally charged](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/jeffrey-epstein-charged-manhattan-federal-court-sex-trafficking-minors) with sex trafficking of minors and conspiracy to commit sex trafficking of minors. Epstein was taken into custody and [denied bail](https://www.npr.org/2019/07/18/741802612/jeffrey-epstein-is-denied-bail-in-sex-trafficking-case) in July of 2019, and died in August of 2019 in New York's Metropolitan Correctional Center. His death was [ruled a suicide](https://apnews.com/article/a947e0d85d31496eb5bd9ff4994c9718) by the medical examiner.\n\nEpstein [owned a private island](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Saint_James,_U.S._Virgin_Islands) in the US Virgin Islands, and often [flew there on his private plane](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeffrey-epstein-list-names-released-unsealed-documents/). Accusations and suspicion have surrounded some of the people named in Epstein's [flight logs](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21165424-epstein-flight-logs-released-in-usa-vs-maxwell/). Epstein's illicit activity, the people he associated with, and the manner of his death have been the subject of many conspiracies.\n\nIn January of 2024, a US district court [unsealed](https://www.npr.org/2020/07/31/896627505/judge-releases-trove-of-sealed-records-related-to-case-against-ghislaine-maxwell) a tranche of documents from a 2015 defamation case, [*Virginia Giuffre v Ghislaine Maxwell*](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/4355835/giuffre-v-maxwell/), who was alleged to have been trafficked by Jeffrey Epstein and his conspirator, Ghislaine Maxwell. [According to an article published in January of 2024 by the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/jeffrey-epstein-court-records-587fa5a6bedf93bc958bdc3a933006bc):\n\n> Social media has been rife in recent weeks with posts [speculating the documents amounted to a list](https://apnews.com/article/jeffrey-epstein-ghislaine-maxwell-virginia-giuffre-3af500d4788ad45301be426628846d71) of rich and powerful men who were Epstein’s “clients” or “co-conspirators.”\n> \n> There was no such list. The first 40 documents in the court-ordered release largely consisted of already public material revealed through nearly two decades of newspaper stories, TV documentaries, interviews, legal cases and books about the Epstein scandal.\n> \n> Still, the records — including transcripts of interviews with some of Epstein’s victims and old police reports — contained reminders that the millionaire surrounded himself with famous and powerful figures, including a few who have also been accused of misconduct.\n\nIn a September 2024 podcast interview, [Lex Fridman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lex_Fridman) asked Donald Trump about his previous hesitation to [release a list of clients](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-lex-fridman-podcast-jeffrey-epstein-list-1948170) that went to Epstein's island, and Trump [indicated](https://youtu.be/qCbfTN-caFI?si=xzNroDX6sSzPt3Ic\\&t=2656) that he would be open to releasing a list of Epstein's clients.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, during calendar year 2025, the United States federal government releases any previously unreleased documents from any federal court case (criminal or civil) or investigation related to Jeffrey Epstein. The court case or investigation must involve or be related to claims of illegal or harmful sexual activity conducted by Epstein or his associates.", "fine_print": "* Charges or suits that are not directly seeking relief for illegal or harmful sexual activity conducted by Epstein or his associates also count, if they are related to such activity. For example, the [unsealed court records](https://apnews.com/article/jeffrey-epstein-court-records-587fa5a6bedf93bc958bdc3a933006bc) related to the 2015 civil defamation case [*Virginia Giuffre v. Ghislaine Maxwell (2015)*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Giuffre#Virginia_Giuffre_v._Ghislaine_Maxwell_\\(2015\\)) would have counted.\n* Documents do not need to contain new information, for example the release of previously sealed or confidential documents that solely contain material that was already public would still resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* Any number of released documents qualifies.\n* Metaculus will not conduct an exhaustive search of court or government records, and resolution will be based on reporting by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) and information available from standard web searches.\n* The manner of release, such as whether releases occur voluntarily or due to mandates as the result of [Freedom of Information Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_Information_Act_\\(United_States\\)) (FOIA) requirements, is immaterial.\n* This question only resolves as **Yes** if the documents become available during calendar year 2025. An order to release documents alone is not sufficient--the documents must actually be released.", "post_id": 31348, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741033558.586368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 906, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741033558.586368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 906, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.69786278435022 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0000425348713822, 0.025169519604691402, 0.00015673264459143294, 0.001989546676344836, 6.105651762587017e-05, 0.09443220121842891, 0.00011176944899769182, 0.006346410918923886, 0.0335370987439932, 0.11194559345818143, 0.8117861354832991, 0.14634929700606983, 0.2845031759455589, 0.00010184351192342017, 0.0649498511135562, 0.42049550470030417, 0.01960449670520482, 0.15630453121573148, 0.19541156087565797, 0.024281972212001793, 1.15584058810527, 0.13156010884887762, 0.1389468747839542, 0.4254225063389284, 0.028087222250406434, 0.5668202583897839, 0.026389062747138422, 0.05084425977892733, 0.36795709380441166, 0.0, 0.9120127086664815, 0.17392310271678385, 0.04942002768138439, 0.1968976199833375, 0.1878749101305337, 0.3779757830947773, 0.0014508647645830929, 0.10754111897645148, 0.03417958680568238, 0.08445493526400888, 0.434907237877703, 3.6711692292114085e-09, 0.3928648967040302, 0.12673134671311403, 0.016689555816491487, 0.6074972335761851, 0.00028359213925635205, 0.34372204516205784, 9.41573276853968e-09, 0.03805599055525583, 2.4833240703732704, 0.10627746346135726, 0.016345642653403828, 0.032826940029964155, 0.6267090413124787, 1.3447538253890285, 0.22274055523731223, 0.011840993000212956, 0.0, 0.0002901106700087622, 1.6801666719641273, 0.02985940117619961, 1.1190489792715879, 0.5495681906723558, 0.002545944905753294, 2.764643175169109, 0.875950241319475, 0.8310604685769668, 6.26527290631923e-05, 0.7994430433358987, 2.2201895749572307, 0.6056176626127643, 0.011752698863381877, 0.7055403061827372, 3.068038470636847e-07, 2.3747708875966174, 0.4480104537161003, 1.5902328666935959, 2.197113002523708, 0.026191488983909474, 2.270178582077955, 0.4268239818274881, 0.0010928782868527662, 0.5750719986883895, 0.5545524899080225, 2.6171096877757787, 0.4233945246788683, 0.5848833294980776, 0.5680141990891687, 4.101277118789266e-10, 2.8763065300106834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014151946266701882, 2.6670315879847135, 0.0, 1.866119449682579, 0.6519340881283189, 8.565589164370207 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -9.443332398089103, "peer_score": 3.164709359769155, "coverage": 0.13408388225285722, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9981010733747953, "spot_peer_score": 37.53592345045942, "spot_baseline_score": -53.95195299599893, "baseline_archived_score": -9.443332398089103, "peer_archived_score": 3.164709359769155, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.53592345045942, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -53.95195299599893 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1222, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Jeffrey Epstein](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein), who accumulated significant wealth [working in the finance industry](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-did-jeffrey-epstein-make-his-money/), was accused in recent decades of a number of sex crimes, and in 2019 was [formally charged](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/jeffrey-epstein-charged-manhattan-federal-court-sex-trafficking-minors) with sex trafficking of minors and conspiracy to commit sex trafficking of minors. Epstein was taken into custody and [denied bail](https://www.npr.org/2019/07/18/741802612/jeffrey-epstein-is-denied-bail-in-sex-trafficking-case) in July of 2019, and died in August of 2019 in New York's Metropolitan Correctional Center. His death was [ruled a suicide](https://apnews.com/article/a947e0d85d31496eb5bd9ff4994c9718) by the medical examiner.\n\nEpstein [owned a private island](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Saint_James,_U.S._Virgin_Islands) in the US Virgin Islands, and often [flew there on his private plane](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeffrey-epstein-list-names-released-unsealed-documents/). Accusations and suspicion have surrounded some of the people named in Epstein's [flight logs](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21165424-epstein-flight-logs-released-in-usa-vs-maxwell/). Epstein's illicit activity, the people he associated with, and the manner of his death have been the subject of many conspiracies.\n\nIn January of 2024, a US district court [unsealed](https://www.npr.org/2020/07/31/896627505/judge-releases-trove-of-sealed-records-related-to-case-against-ghislaine-maxwell) a tranche of documents from a 2015 defamation case, [*Virginia Giuffre v Ghislaine Maxwell*](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/4355835/giuffre-v-maxwell/), who was alleged to have been trafficked by Jeffrey Epstein and his conspirator, Ghislaine Maxwell. [According to an article published in January of 2024 by the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/jeffrey-epstein-court-records-587fa5a6bedf93bc958bdc3a933006bc):\n\n> Social media has been rife in recent weeks with posts [speculating the documents amounted to a list](https://apnews.com/article/jeffrey-epstein-ghislaine-maxwell-virginia-giuffre-3af500d4788ad45301be426628846d71) of rich and powerful men who were Epstein’s “clients” or “co-conspirators.”\n> \n> There was no such list. The first 40 documents in the court-ordered release largely consisted of already public material revealed through nearly two decades of newspaper stories, TV documentaries, interviews, legal cases and books about the Epstein scandal.\n> \n> Still, the records — including transcripts of interviews with some of Epstein’s victims and old police reports — contained reminders that the millionaire surrounded himself with famous and powerful figures, including a few who have also been accused of misconduct.\n\nIn a September 2024 podcast interview, [Lex Fridman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lex_Fridman) asked Donald Trump about his previous hesitation to [release a list of clients](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-lex-fridman-podcast-jeffrey-epstein-list-1948170) that went to Epstein's island, and Trump [indicated](https://youtu.be/qCbfTN-caFI?si=xzNroDX6sSzPt3Ic\\&t=2656) that he would be open to releasing a list of Epstein's clients." }, { "id": 31347, "title": "Will US residents be able to order Starbucks delivery using one of these major AI interfaces before 2026?", "short_title": "Starbucks delivery possible via major AI interface in 2025?", "url_title": "Starbucks delivery possible via major AI interface in 2025?", "slug": "starbucks-delivery-possible-via-major-ai-interface-in-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-06T22:58:44.416396Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:02:19.012126Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.540754Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:02:19.012123Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T20:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T20:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1285, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T10:50:07.184004Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T10:50:07.184004Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30976, "title": "Will US residents be able to order Starbucks delivery using one of these major AI interfaces before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-01-06T22:58:44.416752Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T20:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-30T21:18:28.991048Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T20:31:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "AI tools such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude have proven effective at generating text summaries, images, and code. In 2023 and 2024, web-search capabilities became a focus, with tools like [Perplexity](https://www.perplexity.ai/) emerging and ChatGPT receiving [multiple](https://www.theverge.com/2023/9/27/23892781/openai-chatgpt-live-web-results-browse-with-bing) [upgrades](https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-search/) to enable and improve web browsing. However, in late 2024 several steps were taken toward more agentic AI, which might someday have the ability to complete a task given by a human that requires engaging with interfaces external to the AI, for example websites.\n\nIn October of 2022, Anthropic [announced](https://www.anthropic.com/news/3-5-models-and-computer-use) a public beta for \"computer use\", allowing Claude to interact with web interfaces. Similarly, in December of 2024 Google [announced](https://blog.google/technology/google-deepmind/google-gemini-ai-update-december-2024/#ceo-message) Gemini 2.0, saying\n\n> With new advances in multimodality — like native image and audio output — and native tool use, it will enable us to build new AI agents that bring us closer to our vision of a universal assistant.\n\nIn a January 2025 [blog post](https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections), OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said\n\n> We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, it is possible for US residents to order Starbucks delivery via a generative AI released by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple.\n\nMetaculus will generally rely on reporting from [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to resolve the question, though may test prospective systems to assess whether they have the required capabilities.", "fine_print": "* This functionality should not require specialized knowledge to access (e.g., jailbreaking or API access). It should be as easy as installing the required app or purchasing the required access or device (e.g., a voice assistant) and placing the order, potentially after some regular setup steps (e.g., setting up a payment method). Joining a waitlist or the AI being in a closed beta will *not* prevent this question from resolving as **Yes**, as long as most US residents can join the waitlist.\n* This functionality should be directly available in a product or interface released by one of these companies. External plugins, apps, or tools should not be required. The interface must be intended for general use. For example, an OpenAI-created LLM on the Starbucks website would not resolve this question as Yes.\n* The AI must be able to order most items available for delivery on the Starbucks website to most locations in more than one US city (where delivery is typically available). An AI that can only order Starbucks in a few predetermined locations or one that can order only the user's most recent order or a small subset of items will not qualify.\n* The AI system need not complete the order through a web or mobile interface, for example calling a nearby Starbucks itself and successfully placing an order via phone is sufficient. If Starbucks provides the option to pay upon delivery, the AI system need not complete payment.\n* The AI system is allowed to request additional information from the user and may collect such information using an external tool (e.g. opening a Google Pay interface for payment details). However, the system must do more than just adding the order to a \"cart\" for the user to then complete. The AI also should not require step-by-step instructions to complete the order. It shouldn't need, for example, instructions to open the Starbucks website or how to navigate it to complete the order.\n* If it is unclear whether the application, website, or device is using a generative AI to handle the order (e.g., in the case of Siri), Metaculus will generally resolve the question as **Yes** unless Metaculus has reason to believe that generative AI is not being used, for example if the system seems unable to flexibly reply to a wide range of prompts or otherwise appears to rely primarily on predefined responses.", "post_id": 31347, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738271744.49825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1298, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.751 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738271744.49825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1298, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.751 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.249, 0.751 ], "means": [ 0.7001376334994981 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.971945914274076, 0.0027880336193954734, 2.341723659820746e-07, 0.0006054214259619694, 0.0010899719290005869, 0.025714668601809973, 0.4622961966900541, 0.2939615948217802, 0.32898618396633056, 0.11648268389401334, 0.7685659871477625, 0.2927776631991813, 0.0034847841901591834, 1.1093835219955047e-05, 0.3191420935792579, 0.8601921937790058, 0.007457188783357826, 0.16644771747836795, 0.00367683080465559, 0.5360918882791526, 1.2565940880887174, 0.042051973904377773, 1.032817452378273, 0.02809973763826653, 0.4493823479594913, 0.49601350506040803, 0.23757217330518116, 0.0006594105245350579, 0.0008737066198505894, 9.058223047088841e-07, 0.3134084153386565, 4.7006938750165646e-05, 0.11529106865297824, 0.2569584038495175, 0.01680089689321636, 0.6450747314296829, 0.00030603990892792633, 4.360637366705247e-08, 0.07294406649663393, 0.007382978912873139, 0.4126031753565411, 1.389933562720462e-05, 2.297915917276941e-08, 0.0006504654066542686, 0.5635094010307224, 0.8880165305729352, 0.11028673533424603, 2.50380231165435e-06, 0.0, 2.9752515250369723e-07, 2.1570653448601718, 0.27641472450994364, 1.4403253202546414e-05, 0.0047239799024558935, 0.016056823771404927, 1.3185260781992643, 0.08440183428966112, 0.9200391730554429, 0.0, 0.5401526419626597, 2.610380064139704, 0.3343648887439463, 0.6862002259920694, 0.19343190898575863, 0.0014261967202150608, 2.9899632448118116, 0.6674120147103713, 4.6249344820036345e-05, 0.012840424866524989, 0.7652432152246029, 3.471123317587855, 0.08191789104274058, 1.1454596070242586, 0.10123382809349923, 0.2978766148238785, 4.548024829407897, 0.4254075511478832, 0.022342839547872705, 2.8342534591499677, 0.5104947024643897, 2.9341447354881613, 0.8893466797510315, 0.3615506099799698, 0.6810169519521883, 0.8781353481790856, 4.006408970872043, 0.0017866235295701683, 0.9244372714106562, 0.016061504054477465, 0.06790363437095466, 4.809782220325262, 1.0494807167287914, 0.16390231197086097, 0.19244787571857375, 0.4481509589530819, 4.294207788484592, 0.4643822905794709, 0.7038878448341731, 1.1635380714361832, 7.380199835177127 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1804, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "AI tools such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude have proven effective at generating text summaries, images, and code. In 2023 and 2024, web-search capabilities became a focus, with tools like [Perplexity](https://www.perplexity.ai/) emerging and ChatGPT receiving [multiple](https://www.theverge.com/2023/9/27/23892781/openai-chatgpt-live-web-results-browse-with-bing) [upgrades](https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-search/) to enable and improve web browsing. However, in late 2024 several steps were taken toward more agentic AI, which might someday have the ability to complete a task given by a human that requires engaging with interfaces external to the AI, for example websites.\n\nIn October of 2022, Anthropic [announced](https://www.anthropic.com/news/3-5-models-and-computer-use) a public beta for \"computer use\", allowing Claude to interact with web interfaces. Similarly, in December of 2024 Google [announced](https://blog.google/technology/google-deepmind/google-gemini-ai-update-december-2024/#ceo-message) Gemini 2.0, saying\n\n> With new advances in multimodality — like native image and audio output — and native tool use, it will enable us to build new AI agents that bring us closer to our vision of a universal assistant.\n\nIn a January 2025 [blog post](https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections), OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said\n\n> We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes." }, { "id": 31344, "title": "Will Fernanda Torres be nominated for an Oscar in 2025?", "short_title": "Fernanda Torres Oscar?", "url_title": "Fernanda Torres Oscar?", "slug": "fernanda-torres-oscar", "author_id": 188975, "author_username": "tco55", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-06T21:27:01.686366Z", "published_at": "2025-01-06T21:27:14.595123Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.539600Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-06T21:27:14.595121Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-17T10:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-17T10:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-18T10:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T22:38:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-06T21:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32626, "name": "Tom Coupe's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "coupe", "description": "This community as for the forecasting module of UC's FIEC675 class", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 188975, "username": "tco55", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32626, "name": "Tom Coupe's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "coupe", "description": "This community as for the forecasting module of UC's FIEC675 class", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 188975, "username": "tco55", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 30973, "title": "Will Fernanda Torres be nominated for an Oscar in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-06T21:27:01.686785Z", "open_time": "2025-01-06T21:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-06T21:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-06T21:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-18T10:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T22:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-23T22:38:15.818011Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-17T10:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-17T10:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2025 Oscar nominations will be revealed on Friday, January 17. \n\n[https://www.vogue.com/article/everything-you-need-to-know-2025-oscars](https://www.vogue.com/article/everything-you-need-to-know-2025-oscars)\n\nFernanda Torres just won a best actress award at the Golden Globes\n\n[https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/2025-golden-globes-best-actress-drama-fernanda-torres-1236098810/](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/2025-golden-globes-best-actress-drama-fernanda-torres-1236098810/)\n\n\n\nWill she also receive a nomination for an Oscar?", "resolution_criteria": "announcement on the Oscars website or media.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31344, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737107691.134429, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 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0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 34.254552133696635, "peer_score": 11.063135279538368, "coverage": 0.8073711681391045, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8073711681391045, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 34.254552133696635, "peer_archived_score": 11.063135279538368, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2025 Oscar nominations will be revealed on Friday, January 17. \n\n[https://www.vogue.com/article/everything-you-need-to-know-2025-oscars](https://www.vogue.com/article/everything-you-need-to-know-2025-oscars)\n\nFernanda Torres just won a best actress award at the Golden Globes\n\n[https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/2025-golden-globes-best-actress-drama-fernanda-torres-1236098810/](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/2025-golden-globes-best-actress-drama-fernanda-torres-1236098810/)\n\n\n\nWill she also receive a nomination for an Oscar?" }, { "id": 31342, "title": "Will Belgium have a new government by the end of January 2025?", "short_title": "Belgian New Government in January 2025?", "url_title": "Belgian New Government in January 2025?", "slug": "belgian-new-government-in-january-2025", "author_id": 188975, "author_username": "tco55", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-06T19:28:37.245647Z", "published_at": "2025-01-06T19:29:04.005119Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.587592Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-06T19:29:04.005116Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T02:48:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-06T19:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32626, "name": "Tom Coupe's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "coupe", "description": "This community as for the forecasting module of UC's FIEC675 class", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 188975, "username": "tco55", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32626, "name": "Tom Coupe's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "coupe", "description": "This community as for the forecasting module of UC's FIEC675 class", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 188975, "username": "tco55", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 30971, "title": "Will Belgium have a new government by the end of January 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-06T19:28:37.246033Z", "open_time": "2025-01-06T19:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-06T19:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-06T19:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T02:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-01T02:49:08.000296Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Coalition talks in Belgium tend to take a long time. In 2020, the country broke its own record as it spent 652 days without a government. \n\n[https://www.brusselstimes.com/1317593/belgiums-government-formation-for-dummies](https://www.brusselstimes.com/1317593/belgiums-government-formation-for-dummies)\n\nCoalition talks started after the elections in June 2024 and are still on-going. The negotiators hope to be able to get to an agreement this month:\n\n[https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/01/02/federal-coalition-negotiators-meet-for-the-first-time-this-year/](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/01/02/federal-coalition-negotiators-meet-for-the-first-time-this-year/)\n\nWill they succeed and form a new government by the end of January 2025?", "resolution_criteria": "In Belgium new governments get sworn in by the king - f.e.\n\n[https://www.brusselstimes.com/133722/new-belgian-government-is-sworn-in-by-the-king](https://www.brusselstimes.com/133722/new-belgian-government-is-sworn-in-by-the-king)\n\nHence this question will resolve as yes if they king swears in a new government by the end of January 2025", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31342, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738113774.497793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738113774.497793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0025097859127825835 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.772668575949019, 0.884170266597878, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 20.1095891628855, "peer_score": 2.1191004314057507, "coverage": 0.8936679538215522, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8936679538215522, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 20.1095891628855, "peer_archived_score": 2.1191004314057507, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Coalition talks in Belgium tend to take a long time. In 2020, the country broke its own record as it spent 652 days without a government. \n\n[https://www.brusselstimes.com/1317593/belgiums-government-formation-for-dummies](https://www.brusselstimes.com/1317593/belgiums-government-formation-for-dummies)\n\nCoalition talks started after the elections in June 2024 and are still on-going. The negotiators hope to be able to get to an agreement this month:\n\n[https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/01/02/federal-coalition-negotiators-meet-for-the-first-time-this-year/](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/01/02/federal-coalition-negotiators-meet-for-the-first-time-this-year/)\n\nWill they succeed and form a new government by the end of January 2025?" }, { "id": 31341, "title": "Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?", "short_title": "Application to ban AfD in 2025?", "url_title": "Application to ban AfD in 2025?", "slug": "application-to-ban-afd-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-06T19:03:10.854997Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:00:49.081297Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:37:45.388573Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:00:49.081294Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1286, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T10:50:07.184004Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T10:50:07.184004Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30970, "title": "Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-01-06T19:03:10.855430Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Founded in 2013, the [AfD (Alternative for Germany) party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany) has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. In 2024 it achieved very strong results in three east Germany federal states, coming first in Thuringia and a close second in both Saxony and Brandenburg.\n\nAfD is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified the party as a \"suspected extremist\" party, despite the party's claims of adherence to democratic principles. Various voices [have called](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68029232) for a ban of AfD, a sentiment that has recently gained momentum ([DW](https://www.dw.com/en/will-german-far-right-afd-party-be-banned/a-70531838)):\n\n> Their chance of success is uncertain, but a cross-party group of Bundestag parliamentarians, led by lawmaker Marco Wanderwitz of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) is attempting it anyway: On Thursday, 37 lawmakers announced that they would seek to ban the partially right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD). Together, they represent 5% of parliament — a requirement to take their initiative to the next stage: a parliamentary vote which, if passed, would bring the matter before the Federal Constitutional Court.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, an application is filed at the German Federal Constitutional Court to ban the Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party at the federal level, by the Federal Government, the Bundestag, or the Bundesrat", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31341, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757883998.357418, "end_time": 1758255780.138, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757883998.357418, "end_time": 1758255780.138, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 0.16123507051334474 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.023114232964308968, 0.5620009930095008, 0.20578913590497988, 1.0343417800542134, 0.0, 0.517016562215794, 0.8768962123224481, 1.269572668513772, 1.515430692214653, 2.550724403236062, 5.231024453729751, 0.5248529436279137, 0.00414152452351203, 1.5828650131511786, 3.1983405970052576, 2.1207431188179915, 1.0562230768093763, 0.858706375411739, 0.4509737581824168, 0.18405911512642076, 1.4179301827575475, 0.0002610062002314625, 0.23200718923231886, 0.1309355237180839, 0.3860263050549718, 0.3180825467340451, 0.16051345846557585, 0.01692700119344818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42362845507314084, 0.0, 0.0019144364321239816, 0.008438118395588601, 0.0071991563026711025, 0.0011282526989121403, 0.0, 0.0009386774607196413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0730733844880593, 0.02028714889597017, 0.0, 0.005603081433597474, 0.0014329571911999657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059872639571349084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028893366353580575, 0.09653111140613632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004111758988868683, 0.0, 2.8927418273530665e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5059340708424592e-05, 0.2925476705076544, 0.0, 0.0276598538624331, 0.006517291663515207, 0.052349746306514976, 0.002677523980905237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17743309286674014, 0.08181192265783327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1121787346871974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00532502747785075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6482674437214818 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 39, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2152, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Founded in 2013, the [AfD (Alternative for Germany) party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany) has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. In 2024 it achieved very strong results in three east Germany federal states, coming first in Thuringia and a close second in both Saxony and Brandenburg.\n\nAfD is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified the party as a \"suspected extremist\" party, despite the party's claims of adherence to democratic principles. Various voices [have called](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68029232) for a ban of AfD, a sentiment that has recently gained momentum ([DW](https://www.dw.com/en/will-german-far-right-afd-party-be-banned/a-70531838)):\n\n> Their chance of success is uncertain, but a cross-party group of Bundestag parliamentarians, led by lawmaker Marco Wanderwitz of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) is attempting it anyway: On Thursday, 37 lawmakers announced that they would seek to ban the partially right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD). Together, they represent 5% of parliament — a requirement to take their initiative to the next stage: a parliamentary vote which, if passed, would bring the matter before the Federal Constitutional Court." }, { "id": 31340, "title": "Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal in the United States in 2025?", "short_title": "Polymarket or Manifold real-money bets legal in US in 2025?", "url_title": "Polymarket or Manifold real-money bets legal in US in 2025?", "slug": "polymarket-or-manifold-real-money-bets-legal-in-us-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-06T16:20:42.244504Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:43:15.126592Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T05:17:48.163923Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:43:15.126589Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1197, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T10:50:07.184004Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T10:50:07.184004Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30969, "title": "Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal in the United States in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-06T16:20:42.244915Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Prediction markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market) are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. These could range from the [winner of the US presidential election](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) to [bird flu being designated a pandemic](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewoutbreakph5n1/new-bird-flu-pandemic) or [an AI winning the International Mathematical Olympiad](https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat). Similar to Metaculus, prediction markets harness the wisdom of the crowds to provide [accurate](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq) probabilistic estimates for future events.\n\nPrediction markets are tightly controlled in the US, with very few of them (e.g., [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/)) being approved by the CFTC. The largest prediction market as of the writing of this question, [Polymarket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket) was fined by the CTFC in 2022 and stopped offering access to US customers. Another large prediction market, [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/) allows users to bet almost exclusively using play money.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in the calendar year 2025, Polymarket or Manifold can legally offer markets in the United States using real money.", "fine_print": "* This has to be legal in at least one US state.\n* A public change in law or government policy must occur for this to resolve as **Yes**, which could include but is not limited to court decisions, public CFTC [<u>no-action letters</u>](https://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/CFTCStaffLetters/index.htm), executive orders, or new laws. For example, if Manifold or Polymarket were to decide to accept risk under the status quo, satisfying the other criteria with no preceding change in law or government policy, that would not be sufficient. In the event the circumstances are unclear Metaculus may resolve the question as **ambiguous**.\n* For the purposes of this question, real money includes anything that can be legally exchanged for fiat currency. For example, if Polymarket launched \"Polymarket chips\" that one could at any point legally both buy and sell using USD and it was legal to bet on Polymarket using those chips, this question would resolve as **Yes** (in the same way that gambling in a casino with chips is gambling with real money). Similarly any legal cryptocurrencies or crypto tokens (e.g., USDC) would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* If Polymarket or Manifold markets operate using a custom currency (e.g., Manifold sweepcash), to resolve as **Yes** they have to explicitly state that users can exchange fiat currency for the custom currency and vice versa. Manifold's workaround that gives \"free\" sweepcash for mana purchases does not suffice to resolve this question as **Yes**. \n* Polymarket or Manifold restricting withdrawals only to money that has been previously traded would *not* prevent this question from resolving as **Yes**. A restriction that would allow only money that has been won from a market resolution to be withdrawn, however, *would* prevent this question from resolving as **Yes**.", "post_id": 31340, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757852623.50482, "end_time": 1758327024.642, "forecaster_count": 239, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757852623.50482, "end_time": 1758327024.642, "forecaster_count": 239, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6516210842679742 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16229670284313716, 0.015143298862955316, 0.0, 3.1655288815860606e-05, 0.0, 0.7893579536117799, 0.0, 0.012129377334905553, 0.017009413205728012, 0.0, 0.10013544131198632, 0.006002709064215975, 0.001399793691513322, 0.0034767203330117267, 0.03309608330505767, 0.028451780380387155, 0.04866813163134867, 0.0005385475776053186, 0.08931951059451415, 0.006609030386031658, 0.1421600461234221, 0.027238652513633846, 0.09848896585363726, 0.00830226899881778, 0.007907588263614472, 0.240846967026707, 0.2721401830421615, 7.793582442284242e-05, 0.0019707361999085227, 0.0, 0.08582237773721493, 0.0, 5.058474694391651e-05, 0.027728826287481877, 0.0, 0.15499501910139185, 0.058297781715943804, 0.0009355804122518987, 0.06593921106513645, 0.0, 0.9916745001870417, 0.011075046698634076, 0.025481598591184467, 0.0, 0.30004222325368424, 0.01448484029422924, 0.0, 0.0005077014602906897, 0.0, 0.0, 2.183728648009576, 0.18061013922816643, 0.7576658216323378, 0.0, 0.3668535565849911, 0.8264268905478054, 0.8786010132816962, 0.18052288024675467, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3175286813040183, 0.0076227385088592494, 0.2241623327157097, 0.5067182570651766, 0.0, 3.2174333189579905, 0.5163470062491546, 0.34442656461523924, 0.46641178463319316, 0.69770705018119, 1.618593653541363, 0.6455753089518461, 0.2136466049746064, 0.0, 0.07041307146219086, 1.4492307990719033, 0.24947974379769255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20863252163213442, 2.16300685149408, 0.8947127061960407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.296560381939485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7199318648195556, 0.15032361619961354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.636910903898293, 0.37974774047728, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2025778253588668 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2196, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Prediction markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market) are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. These could range from the [winner of the US presidential election](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) to [bird flu being designated a pandemic](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewoutbreakph5n1/new-bird-flu-pandemic) or [an AI winning the International Mathematical Olympiad](https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat). Similar to Metaculus, prediction markets harness the wisdom of the crowds to provide [accurate](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq) probabilistic estimates for future events.\n\nPrediction markets are tightly controlled in the US, with very few of them (e.g., [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/)) being approved by the CFTC. The largest prediction market as of the writing of this question, [Polymarket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket) was fined by the CTFC in 2022 and stopped offering access to US customers. Another large prediction market, [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/) allows users to bet almost exclusively using play money." } ] }
:\n\n\n\nOn](http://CSIS](https://www.csis.org/analysis/geopolitics-and-neglected-arctic-spaces):%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5CnOn){kind=link}
