Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1320
{ "count": 5902, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1340", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1300", "results": [ { "id": 31340, "title": "Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal in the United States in 2025?", "short_title": "Polymarket or Manifold real-money bets legal in US in 2025?", "url_title": "Polymarket or Manifold real-money bets legal in US in 2025?", "slug": "polymarket-or-manifold-real-money-bets-legal-in-us-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-06T16:20:42.244504Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:43:15.126592Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T05:17:48.163923Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:43:15.126589Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1197, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30969, "title": "Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal in the United States in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-06T16:20:42.244915Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Prediction markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market) are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. These could range from the [winner of the US presidential election](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) to [bird flu being designated a pandemic](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewoutbreakph5n1/new-bird-flu-pandemic) or [an AI winning the International Mathematical Olympiad](https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat). Similar to Metaculus, prediction markets harness the wisdom of the crowds to provide [accurate](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq) probabilistic estimates for future events.\n\nPrediction markets are tightly controlled in the US, with very few of them (e.g., [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/)) being approved by the CFTC. The largest prediction market as of the writing of this question, [Polymarket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket) was fined by the CTFC in 2022 and stopped offering access to US customers. Another large prediction market, [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/) allows users to bet almost exclusively using play money.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in the calendar year 2025, Polymarket or Manifold can legally offer markets in the United States using real money.", "fine_print": "* This has to be legal in at least one US state.\n* A public change in law or government policy must occur for this to resolve as **Yes**, which could include but is not limited to court decisions, public CFTC [<u>no-action letters</u>](https://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/CFTCStaffLetters/index.htm), executive orders, or new laws. For example, if Manifold or Polymarket were to decide to accept risk under the status quo, satisfying the other criteria with no preceding change in law or government policy, that would not be sufficient. In the event the circumstances are unclear Metaculus may resolve the question as **ambiguous**.\n* For the purposes of this question, real money includes anything that can be legally exchanged for fiat currency. For example, if Polymarket launched \"Polymarket chips\" that one could at any point legally both buy and sell using USD and it was legal to bet on Polymarket using those chips, this question would resolve as **Yes** (in the same way that gambling in a casino with chips is gambling with real money). Similarly any legal cryptocurrencies or crypto tokens (e.g., USDC) would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* If Polymarket or Manifold markets operate using a custom currency (e.g., Manifold sweepcash), to resolve as **Yes** they have to explicitly state that users can exchange fiat currency for the custom currency and vice versa. Manifold's workaround that gives \"free\" sweepcash for mana purchases does not suffice to resolve this question as **Yes**. \n* Polymarket or Manifold restricting withdrawals only to money that has been previously traded would *not* prevent this question from resolving as **Yes**. A restriction that would allow only money that has been won from a market resolution to be withdrawn, however, *would* prevent this question from resolving as **Yes**.", "post_id": 31340, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757852623.50482, "end_time": 1758327024.642, "forecaster_count": 239, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757852623.50482, "end_time": 1758327024.642, "forecaster_count": 239, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6516210842679742 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16229670284313716, 0.015143298862955316, 0.0, 3.1655288815860606e-05, 0.0, 0.7893579536117799, 0.0, 0.012129377334905553, 0.017009413205728012, 0.0, 0.10013544131198632, 0.006002709064215975, 0.001399793691513322, 0.0034767203330117267, 0.03309608330505767, 0.028451780380387155, 0.04866813163134867, 0.0005385475776053186, 0.08931951059451415, 0.006609030386031658, 0.1421600461234221, 0.027238652513633846, 0.09848896585363726, 0.00830226899881778, 0.007907588263614472, 0.240846967026707, 0.2721401830421615, 7.793582442284242e-05, 0.0019707361999085227, 0.0, 0.08582237773721493, 0.0, 5.058474694391651e-05, 0.027728826287481877, 0.0, 0.15499501910139185, 0.058297781715943804, 0.0009355804122518987, 0.06593921106513645, 0.0, 0.9916745001870417, 0.011075046698634076, 0.025481598591184467, 0.0, 0.30004222325368424, 0.01448484029422924, 0.0, 0.0005077014602906897, 0.0, 0.0, 2.183728648009576, 0.18061013922816643, 0.7576658216323378, 0.0, 0.3668535565849911, 0.8264268905478054, 0.8786010132816962, 0.18052288024675467, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3175286813040183, 0.0076227385088592494, 0.2241623327157097, 0.5067182570651766, 0.0, 3.2174333189579905, 0.5163470062491546, 0.34442656461523924, 0.46641178463319316, 0.69770705018119, 1.618593653541363, 0.6455753089518461, 0.2136466049746064, 0.0, 0.07041307146219086, 1.4492307990719033, 0.24947974379769255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20863252163213442, 2.16300685149408, 0.8947127061960407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.296560381939485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7199318648195556, 0.15032361619961354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.636910903898293, 0.37974774047728, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2025778253588668 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2196, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Prediction markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market) are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. These could range from the [winner of the US presidential election](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) to [bird flu being designated a pandemic](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewoutbreakph5n1/new-bird-flu-pandemic) or [an AI winning the International Mathematical Olympiad](https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat). Similar to Metaculus, prediction markets harness the wisdom of the crowds to provide [accurate](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq) probabilistic estimates for future events.\n\nPrediction markets are tightly controlled in the US, with very few of them (e.g., [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/)) being approved by the CFTC. The largest prediction market as of the writing of this question, [Polymarket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket) was fined by the CTFC in 2022 and stopped offering access to US customers. Another large prediction market, [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/) allows users to bet almost exclusively using play money." }, { "id": 31336, "title": "Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?", "short_title": "Democrats favored to win 2028 US election on Kalshi?", "url_title": "Democrats favored to win 2028 US election on Kalshi?", "slug": "democrats-favored-to-win-2028-us-election-on-kalshi", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-06T11:14:04.038109Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:02:03.207337Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T20:59:38.888539Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:02:03.207334Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 985, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30966, "title": "Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?", "created_at": "2025-01-06T11:14:04.038461Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-24T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Kalshi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi) is, as of the writing of this question, the largest prediction market licensed by the CFTC. Prediction markets [exploded in popularity](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/cryptoverse-us-election-punters-play-prediction-markets-2024-11-04/) during the US elections, with Kalshi seeing more than $200 million in trading on its election outcome market. Research [has shown](https://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf) that prediction markets are superior to polls for predicting the outcomes of elections.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the median price for \"Democratic\" is higher than the median price for \"Republican\" on the Kalshi market [*Which party will win the 2028 Presidential Election?*](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresparty/party-winning-presidency), for the dates December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, inclusive.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve based on the CSV downloaded from the market page. The median price will be calculated over all timestamps that belong to the week in question.\n* If the medians are equal, this question will resolve as **No**.\n* If, for more than 3 days of the relevant week, the market is unavailable or has been halted, this question will be **annulled.**", "post_id": 31336, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757806470.10404, "end_time": 1758326863.863, "forecaster_count": 206, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757806470.10404, "end_time": 1758326863.863, "forecaster_count": 206, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6295461477512933 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0007914866515947565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008480336807234847, 0.0036850138819079616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004492938723616652, 0.0, 0.002228361218702544, 0.0, 0.5662886534693623, 0.5663795711421289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01905558110370478, 0.0, 0.0031321061874267776, 0.18356478332976164, 0.0003012102307418666, 0.04381723989708805, 0.0, 0.0055431158351295995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031815880267266465, 0.0, 0.00041168108655896275, 0.0, 0.25249825860637626, 0.14326969464329944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02723981497637224, 0.0, 0.03343175960915553, 0.00013362726328398683, 0.0, 0.04584101077470713, 0.040068236381275824, 0.0, 0.17569914663339062, 0.8532199064909032, 0.631158077737754, 1.4949518536408435, 0.11223335664109396, 0.5540099452696492, 0.6425734409274886, 0.29622521626300263, 0.0, 0.10934940388673585, 1.95508918765375, 1.6726003960059783, 0.08573121822275034, 1.900416921898172, 0.27073060345233907, 2.0929058778007024, 1.8287810237916737, 1.7406326946100383, 2.5934193845432776, 0.32896816847540883, 1.1780698285459965, 0.47178609453057063, 0.02305909869427594, 0.012242696506516016, 0.0, 2.600205196637991, 0.0069301863572732965, 0.006225624011079622, 0.0, 0.019992589771753718, 0.2342955199629787, 6.363898303524852e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011066394420238967, 0.00013553058041530514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5370767487358381, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00032615273499173795, 0.821929032916935 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1588, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Kalshi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi) is, as of the writing of this question, the largest prediction market licensed by the CFTC. Prediction markets [exploded in popularity](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/cryptoverse-us-election-punters-play-prediction-markets-2024-11-04/) during the US elections, with Kalshi seeing more than $200 million in trading on its election outcome market. Research [has shown](https://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf) that prediction markets are superior to polls for predicting the outcomes of elections." }, { "id": 31332, "title": "Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?", "short_title": "Successful general-purpose AI investor before 2030?", "url_title": "Successful general-purpose AI investor before 2030?", "slug": "successful-general-purpose-ai-investor-before-2030", "author_id": 145394, "author_username": "Haiku", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-06T00:49:36.797129Z", "published_at": "2025-01-17T02:50:01.509678Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.928587Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-17T02:50:01.509675Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32619, "name": "AI Warning Shots", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-warning-signs", "description": "# Welcome to the AI Warning Signs community!\r\n\r\nThis community tracks the likelihood of events that may *signal an increase in AI risk*, or *increase the signal of AI risk* to policymakers and the general public.\r\n\r\nSuch warning signs may take the form of surprising capabilities, dangerous behaviors, or major incidents that are a result of the development and deployment of advanced AI systems.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Questions that appear here will also be mirrored on* [*Manifold*](https://manifold.markets/home?q=ai%20warning%20signs\\&s=score\\&f=open\\&ct=ALL\\&p=0\\&fy=1\\&mt=00000\\&sw=0)*.*", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 145394, "username": "Haiku", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32619, "name": "AI Warning Shots", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-warning-signs", "description": "# Welcome to the AI Warning Signs community!\r\n\r\nThis community tracks the likelihood of events that may *signal an increase in AI risk*, or *increase the signal of AI risk* to policymakers and the general public.\r\n\r\nSuch warning signs may take the form of surprising capabilities, dangerous behaviors, or major incidents that are a result of the development and deployment of advanced AI systems.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Questions that appear here will also be mirrored on* [*Manifold*](https://manifold.markets/home?q=ai%20warning%20signs\\&s=score\\&f=open\\&ct=ALL\\&p=0\\&fy=1\\&mt=00000\\&sw=0)*.*", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 145394, "username": "Haiku", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30965, "title": "Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?", "created_at": "2025-01-06T00:49:36.797535Z", "open_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As artificial intelligence grows in its capabilities, deploying competent AI agents in the financial sector has become an increasingly tantalizing prospect. AI investors are becoming more common and more successful, such as the AI VC [Arok](https://www.mescomputing.com/news/ai/ai-driven-venture-capitalist-becomes-millionaire-without-human-intervention-its-creator-says) (which became a millionaire), [Truth Terminal](https://x.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1849453049812554031) (the first AI to ever become a decamillionaire), and the parodic DAO [ai16z](https://www.panewslab.com/en/articledetails/atump910.html) (which trended at #1 on GitHub).\n\nThis question tracks whether a general-purpose AI system will be able to autonomously make 50x in realized profits without relying on donations, new crypto projects, or social media memes. Such a system may have the intelligence as well as the economic capacity to make decisions that change the world, without human involvement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if the following occurs before January 1, 2030, and resolves as NO otherwise:\n\n* Credible sources report that a qualifying AI system has achieved realized profits of at least \\$50M from not more than \\$1M in total principal investment.\n\n**This notably excludes new cryptocurrencies.** See the fine print for additional details.", "fine_print": "Qualifying AI systems and decision-making:\n\n1. Qualifying AI systems include LLMs or foundation models, or fine-tunes or ensembles of the same.\n2. Once launched, nearly all of the financial decisions must be made by the AI system. (Minor and isolated cases of human involvement may not count against a YES resolution so long as they are judged to not be a major contributing factor to the system's success. In unclear cases, the average opinion of this question's predictors will be weighted heavily in decision making.)\n3. The AI system may take information into account from other types of AI systems as well as human traders or advisors or aggregates thereof, so long as it is clear that the decisions made by the system are its own and are NOT highly correlated with a single source.\n\nQualifying investments and profits:\n\n1. Only realized profits count toward a YES resolution, not unrealized gains.\n2. The AI must achieve these profits primarily through trading established financial instruments on major regulated exchanges. Qualifying instruments include publicly traded stocks, bonds, ETFs, commodities, and their derivatives (options, futures) listed on major exchanges.\n 1. Existing cryptocurrencies may also count toward resolution, so long as they have a total market cap of at least \\$1B at time of first investment.\n3. The following sources of profit do not count toward a YES resolution:\n 1. The creation or initial distribution of new cryptocurrencies, tokens, or similar digital assets\n 2. Social media–driven 'meme stock' movements where the AI's involvement contributes significantly to the price action\n 3. Direct fundraising, donations, or gifts\n4. The AI system's starting capital must be no more than \\$1M USD (or equivalent) at fair market value when invested. The capital may be invested as a single amount or in multiple tranches, but the total invested capital before reaching \\$50M in realized profits must not exceed \\$1M. All gains must come from price appreciation and/or trading profits rather than external capital contributions.\n5. All presented monetary amounts are in 2025 USD.", "post_id": 31332, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746731626.145039, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.628 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746731626.145039, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.628 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.372, 0.628 ], "means": [ 0.48198669188382615 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9555803276157976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As artificial intelligence grows in its capabilities, deploying competent AI agents in the financial sector has become an increasingly tantalizing prospect. AI investors are becoming more common and more successful, such as the AI VC [Arok](https://www.mescomputing.com/news/ai/ai-driven-venture-capitalist-becomes-millionaire-without-human-intervention-its-creator-says) (which became a millionaire), [Truth Terminal](https://x.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1849453049812554031) (the first AI to ever become a decamillionaire), and the parodic DAO [ai16z](https://www.panewslab.com/en/articledetails/atump910.html) (which trended at #1 on GitHub).\n\nThis question tracks whether a general-purpose AI system will be able to autonomously make 50x in realized profits without relying on donations, new crypto projects, or social media memes. Such a system may have the intelligence as well as the economic capacity to make decisions that change the world, without human involvement." }, { "id": 31331, "title": "Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?", "short_title": "Intl. aggression over AI before 2030?", "url_title": "Intl. aggression over AI before 2030?", "slug": "intl-aggression-over-ai-before-2030", "author_id": 145394, "author_username": "Haiku", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-06T00:47:00.411463Z", "published_at": "2025-01-15T07:29:31.477270Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.743326Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-15T07:29:31.477266Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32619, "name": "AI Warning Shots", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-warning-signs", "description": "# Welcome to the AI Warning Signs community!\r\n\r\nThis community tracks the likelihood of events that may *signal an increase in AI risk*, or *increase the signal of AI risk* to policymakers and the general public.\r\n\r\nSuch warning signs may take the form of surprising capabilities, dangerous behaviors, or major incidents that are a result of the development and deployment of advanced AI systems.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Questions that appear here will also be mirrored on* [*Manifold*](https://manifold.markets/home?q=ai%20warning%20signs\\&s=score\\&f=open\\&ct=ALL\\&p=0\\&fy=1\\&mt=00000\\&sw=0)*.*", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 145394, "username": "Haiku", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32619, "name": "AI Warning Shots", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-warning-signs", "description": "# Welcome to the AI Warning Signs community!\r\n\r\nThis community tracks the likelihood of events that may *signal an increase in AI risk*, or *increase the signal of AI risk* to policymakers and the general public.\r\n\r\nSuch warning signs may take the form of surprising capabilities, dangerous behaviors, or major incidents that are a result of the development and deployment of advanced AI systems.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Questions that appear here will also be mirrored on* [*Manifold*](https://manifold.markets/home?q=ai%20warning%20signs\\&s=score\\&f=open\\&ct=ALL\\&p=0\\&fy=1\\&mt=00000\\&sw=0)*.*", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 145394, "username": "Haiku", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30964, "title": "Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-01-06T00:47:00.411803Z", "open_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent years, AI has emerged as a potential factor in geopolitical power. At time of writing, the geopolitics of AI is dominated by [the race between the US and China](https://asiatimes.com/2025/01/us-china-race-for-ais-next-frontier-is-already-on/). Some AI experts [have called](https://situational-awareness.ai/) for the US to accelerate toward superintelligence in order to gain \"a decisive military advantage\" over China—a proposal that has been [criticized](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H6xEhur9Lbbv9dhBC/against-aschenbrenner-how-situational-awareness-constructs-a) by the AI Safety community. Likewise, the USCC [has urged](https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/Chapter_3--U.S.-China_Competition_in_Emerging_Technologies.pdf) congress to \"establish and fund a Manhattan Project-like program dedicated to racing to and acquiring an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) capability\" (taking for granted that it is feasible to maintain control over such a system).\n\nIf concerns over existential safety prevail and the global race to AGI is called off, other experts [have advised](https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/) that the threat of kinetic conflict will be necessary to uphold a global moratorium.\n\nThis question tracks the likelihood of state aggression or threats of aggression directly related to perceptions of the target state's AI capabilities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if the following occurs before January 1, 2030, and resolves as NO otherwise:\n\nA nation state commits an act of aggression against another nation state OR threatens the same, explicitly due to the target nation state's real or supposed AI capability advances.", "fine_print": "1. An \"act of aggression\" is here defined by [United Nations General Assembly Resolution 3314](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_3314#:~:text=Aggression%20is%20the%20use%20of%20armed%20force%20by%20a%20State%20against%20the%20sovereignty%2C%20territorial%20integrity%20or%20political%20independence%20of%20another%20State%2C%20or%20in%20any%20other%20manner%20inconsistent%20with%20the%20Charter%20of%20the%20United%20Nations%2C%20as%20set%20out%20in%20this%20Definition.).\n2. A \"nation state's real or supposed AI capability advances\" are here defined as improvements in artificial intelligence capabilities, including but not limited to: development or possession of powerful AI systems, major technical breakthroughs in the field of AI, acquisition of significant compute for AI, or mere intent to enhance AI development capacity. The advances may be real or supposed, and don't have to be directly attributable to or controlled by the nation state.\n3. For an act or threat to count, the reasoning linking the target nation state's real or supposed AI capability advances to the threat or act must be made explicit.\n4. Implicit threats are not on their own sufficient for a YES resolution. An explicit verbal or written threat may be sufficient for a YES resolution if the other criteria are met.\n5. For a threat to count, it can be direct (\"we will attack\") or conditional (\"do X or we will attack\"), but not purely hypothetical (\"if we thought they could do X, we would attack\") or purely defensive against an act of aggression (\"if they attack us, we will be forced to respond\").\n6. For a threat to count, it must come from someone who can credibly make such a threat. (e.g. heads of state, senior cabinet members, or military leadership. Not opposition politicians, lower-ranking diplomats, media, etc.)", "post_id": 31331, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756183826.104237, "end_time": 1760113335.287142, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756183826.104237, "end_time": 1760113335.287142, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.4144785067633315 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent years, AI has emerged as a potential factor in geopolitical power. At time of writing, the geopolitics of AI is dominated by [the race between the US and China](https://asiatimes.com/2025/01/us-china-race-for-ais-next-frontier-is-already-on/). Some AI experts [have called](https://situational-awareness.ai/) for the US to accelerate toward superintelligence in order to gain \"a decisive military advantage\" over China—a proposal that has been [criticized](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H6xEhur9Lbbv9dhBC/against-aschenbrenner-how-situational-awareness-constructs-a) by the AI Safety community. Likewise, the USCC [has urged](https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/Chapter_3--U.S.-China_Competition_in_Emerging_Technologies.pdf) congress to \"establish and fund a Manhattan Project-like program dedicated to racing to and acquiring an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) capability\" (taking for granted that it is feasible to maintain control over such a system).\n\nIf concerns over existential safety prevail and the global race to AGI is called off, other experts [have advised](https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/) that the threat of kinetic conflict will be necessary to uphold a global moratorium.\n\nThis question tracks the likelihood of state aggression or threats of aggression directly related to perceptions of the target state's AI capabilities." }, { "id": 31330, "title": "Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?", "short_title": "AI viral self-replication before 2030?", "url_title": "AI viral self-replication before 2030?", "slug": "ai-viral-self-replication-before-2030", "author_id": 145394, "author_username": "Haiku", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-06T00:45:13.671492Z", "published_at": "2025-01-14T06:59:05.280576Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.600659Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-14T06:59:05.280574Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:43:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32619, "name": "AI Warning Shots", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-warning-signs", "description": "# Welcome to the AI Warning Signs community!\r\n\r\nThis community tracks the likelihood of events that may *signal an increase in AI risk*, or *increase the signal of AI risk* to policymakers and the general public.\r\n\r\nSuch warning signs may take the form of surprising capabilities, dangerous behaviors, or major incidents that are a result of the development and deployment of advanced AI systems.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Questions that appear here will also be mirrored on* [*Manifold*](https://manifold.markets/home?q=ai%20warning%20signs\\&s=score\\&f=open\\&ct=ALL\\&p=0\\&fy=1\\&mt=00000\\&sw=0)*.*", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 145394, "username": "Haiku", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32619, "name": "AI Warning Shots", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-warning-signs", "description": "# Welcome to the AI Warning Signs community!\r\n\r\nThis community tracks the likelihood of events that may *signal an increase in AI risk*, or *increase the signal of AI risk* to policymakers and the general public.\r\n\r\nSuch warning signs may take the form of surprising capabilities, dangerous behaviors, or major incidents that are a result of the development and deployment of advanced AI systems.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Questions that appear here will also be mirrored on* [*Manifold*](https://manifold.markets/home?q=ai%20warning%20signs\\&s=score\\&f=open\\&ct=ALL\\&p=0\\&fy=1\\&mt=00000\\&sw=0)*.*", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 145394, "username": "Haiku", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30963, "title": "Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-01-06T00:45:13.671893Z", "open_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:43:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:43:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The coding capabilities of general-purpose AI systems have increased dramatically over time, and their autonomous cyber-offense capabilities have increased in tandem. [(1)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.06664) [(2)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.08144) [(3)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.01637) It has also been found that AI systems can be set up to conduct expert-level [spear phishing](https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.00586) campaigns. This question asks whether a general-purpose AI system will successfully spread itself on the open internet like a virus before the end of the decade.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as YES if according to credible sources, an LLM or foundation model–based AI system replicates itself onto 50 or more devices. This question will resolve as NO if no such event occurs before January 1, 2030.", "fine_print": "1. The replication must be autonomous and must not rely on continued human control. (The emphasis is on control. Human-to-AI interaction via e.g. a victim clicking a link does not prevent a YES resolution, and neither does AI-to-human interaction, including sending data back to a primary human actor. If the AI system relied on an intentional signal from a human operator after its initial escape or release to continue replicating, that system would not count for resolution.)\n2. Either an accident or an intentional release of a virus-like AI system can count toward resolution.\n3. There must be evidence that at least one of the replicants was \"live\" and also self-replicated. (One instance copying its weights 50 times from a single device to 50 other devices, only for the replicants to lie permanently dormant, would not count for resolution.)\n4. At least 10 of the infected devices must be owned by a different individual or corporation. (In the case of exactly 50 infected devices, if e.g. 41 devices were owned by the same company, that would not count for resolution. If then one additional device outside of that company was infected, that would count for resolution if the other criteria are met. This is meant to uphold the \"open internet\" clause of the question title.)", "post_id": 31330, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757903028.52636, "end_time": 1761418232.529625, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757903028.52636, "end_time": 1761418232.529625, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.670620673089048 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The coding capabilities of general-purpose AI systems have increased dramatically over time, and their autonomous cyber-offense capabilities have increased in tandem. [(1)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.06664) [(2)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.08144) [(3)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.01637) It has also been found that AI systems can be set up to conduct expert-level [spear phishing](https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.00586) campaigns. This question asks whether a general-purpose AI system will successfully spread itself on the open internet like a virus before the end of the decade." }, { "id": 31329, "title": "Removed", "short_title": "Removed?", "url_title": "Removed?", "slug": "removed", "author_id": 188975, "author_username": "tco55", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-05T21:48:58.025328Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T21:49:38.230758Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.083955Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T21:49:38.230756Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-05T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32626, "name": "Tom Coupe's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "coupe", "description": "This community as for the forecasting module of UC's FIEC675 class", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 188975, "username": "tco55", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32626, "name": "Tom Coupe's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "coupe", "description": "This community as for the forecasting module of UC's FIEC675 class", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 188975, "username": "tco55", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 30962, "title": "Removed", "created_at": "2025-01-05T21:48:58.025681Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-05T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-05T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Removed", "resolution_criteria": "removed", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31329, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Removed" }, { "id": 31326, "title": "Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "OpenAI tops Chatbot Arena at end-2025?", "url_title": "OpenAI tops Chatbot Arena at end-2025?", "slug": "openai-tops-chatbot-arena-at-end-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-05T15:37:25.272221Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:43:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:15:26.304872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:43:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T15:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T15:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1381, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30960, "title": "Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-05T15:37:25.272586Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T15:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T15:26:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T15:26:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) is a platform for crowdsourced AI comparisons, hosted by researchers at UC Berkeley. Users are presented with two, anonymous LLMs and are asked to vote for the one whose answers they prefer. These votes determine the scores of the models which are then ranked in a global leaderboard.\n\nAs of December 29, 2024, Chatbot Arena includes 187 models, ranked by 2,488,392 votes. The top two models in the Overall leaderboard, which encompasses all dialogues, are versions of Gemini by Google, followed by GPT-4o and o1 by OpenAI.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, the entry with the highest Arena Score in the Overall, no style control category of the [Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/) has OpenAI as its organization.", "fine_print": "* An OpenAI model has to have the highest Arena Score. Simply having a rank equal to 1 will not suffice to resolve this question as **Yes**, as models with different Arena Scores can share rank 1. \n* A tie for the highest Arena Score will count.\n* If Chatbot Arena substantially changes its methodology or categories, Metaculus might correspondingly alter the resolution criteria or **annul** this question.", "post_id": 31326, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757858745.242401, "end_time": 1758168692.289, "forecaster_count": 268, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.222 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757858745.242401, "end_time": 1758168692.289, "forecaster_count": 268, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.222 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.300624709444415 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.19096891372060637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011373634058493742, 0.0, 0.8577601161277291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0752712674280828, 1.4720207961881973, 0.633242538970631, 4.3352324980482745e-05, 0.0, 0.005091570054517356, 0.0, 2.097446785491851, 0.9867569119741384, 0.16600113989685927, 0.0030650227120634053, 0.0, 1.2223275132843752, 0.0020856671131551565, 0.6133083237918263, 0.3097402022354671, 0.0, 3.1410948882271414, 0.26623005886146106, 0.3845264528164037, 1.677864210049138, 0.0, 3.4148840988946927, 0.7088722585744691, 1.5527063565769788, 2.68464223803406, 0.5072937131904786, 2.425198095492515, 0.6711751817535763, 1.6944949441191888e-05, 0.07810277340752177, 0.839250235135548, 1.3893322242356436, 0.0024138684894936535, 0.020944729578371936, 0.005570289253579316, 0.16357465862627824, 0.06295293639945101, 0.001985640039752194, 0.0, 0.05613656026922677, 3.8251399521127576e-05, 0.23092836136493144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003989390943651339, 0.0, 0.1315934209625094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4429243204892498, 0.10374516765733997, 0.0038800680249125165, 7.928177228244045e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.554931954905786, 0.08695911036969724, 0.1580464190874225, 0.014918093361622038, 0.002923271857373049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.003695940461255e-05, 0.03571106048623993, 0.04004469371408541, 0.0, 0.000783953315100922, 0.0, 0.018066476637399964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012125497638582288, 0.024517793990266833, 0.2899752822301524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25392773920828315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14636125619093698 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2335, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) is a platform for crowdsourced AI comparisons, hosted by researchers at UC Berkeley. 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The top two models in the Overall leaderboard, which encompasses all dialogues, are versions of Gemini by Google, followed by GPT-4o and o1 by OpenAI." }, { "id": 31324, "title": "Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?", "short_title": "Mifepristone illegal for abortions in the US before 2026?", "url_title": "Mifepristone illegal for abortions in the US before 2026?", "slug": "mifepristone-illegal-for-abortions-in-the-us-before-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-05T13:52:12.331217Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:40:51.851975Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T01:31:18.291515Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:40:51.851973Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1142, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30959, "title": "Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-01-05T13:52:12.331594Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mifepristone is a medication approved in the US for medical abortion and the management of Cushing's syndrome. As a progesterone receptor antagonist, it blocks the action of progesterone, a hormone critical for maintaining pregnancy. When used in combination with misoprostol, mifepristone effectively terminates early pregnancies by inducing uterine contractions and expelling the pregnancy tissue.\n\nIn 2024, the Republican Study Committee proposed a federal budget that [endorsed prohibiting mifepristone](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/22/fact-sheet-house-republicans-endorse-a-national-abortion-ban-with-zero-exceptions-in-latest-budget/), however as of January 2025 this has not been yet enacted. In 2023, [a suit was filed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FDA_v._Alliance_for_Hippocratic_Medicine) by the Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, seeking to restrict access to mifepristone. A preliminary injunction suspending the approval of mifepristone, but this was never enacted as it was partially reverted by the Fifth Circuit and then reversed by the Supreme Court in 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, prescribing mifepristone for medical abortions in the United States becomes either:\n\n* illegal or\n* significantly restricted, as to prevent the majority of pregnancies in their sixth week from being terminated via mifepristone in every state.", "fine_print": "* The ban does not need to be specifically about abortion; mifepristone becoming illegal or significantly restricted in general would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* If prescribing mifepristone for medical abortions becomes illegal in the US, but it is still legal for medical practitioners to prescribe it for other purposes (such as [cancer](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9693404/) or [Cushing's Syndrome](https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/drugs/18393-mifepristone-tablets-cushing-syndrome)) the question will still resolve as **Yes**. \n* The way mifepristone becomes illegal or significantly restricted is immaterial to this question. Ways that this could happen include, but are not limited to, a federal bill, an FDA rule, or a court decision.\n* Any ban, even if temporary, would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* The ban has to take effect before January 1, 2026. If, for example, a federal bill passes before 2026, but has an enactment date in January 2026, this question will not resolve as **Yes**. Similarly, if a court decision has a delay and is appealed the question will not resolve as **Yes** if the appeal is ongoing.\n* State laws or rulings will not resolve this question as **Yes**. If prescribing at least one brand of mifepristone for abortion is legal and not significantly restricted in at least one state, this question will not resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 31324, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757813467.317868, "end_time": 1758326936.637, "forecaster_count": 215, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757813467.317868, "end_time": 1758326936.637, "forecaster_count": 215, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.10839169319353889 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7993127394691255, 1.6363721361880437, 0.6123570049845538, 1.7409790271280667, 3.7897653303075405, 1.8154300016833926, 2.437721324635443, 1.8378977137656058, 0.9005390583466018, 2.036894518451263, 3.1887254831833496, 0.0018431521773002357, 0.5767218806773634, 0.6156708031622703, 0.22890762394628103, 0.7283104042354853, 0.00010073505258323062, 0.2778440280596, 0.008536677810739938, 0.01959215520834872, 0.8864009263465171, 0.009439254271434721, 0.08932895632521456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2079631316291431, 0.2294724408023011, 0.2668111339168564, 0.09304494982254538, 0.0, 0.18685453275307534, 0.003472507586450555, 0.004325040210905633, 0.0027727548807551347, 0.0, 0.5340801001462506, 0.0, 0.001126240229191084, 0.04563677602044863, 0.0, 0.05816883631282386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02684925295208516, 0.05017460643368688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058970454457227366, 0.0, 0.0, 2.060668639798497e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0668959029242174, 0.0, 0.04973857405831738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030729308328447755, 0.02808999566459599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03674361847846729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000437394480651282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11384899637728214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01374277717409603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001878032344834311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47975005884770605 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1878, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mifepristone is a medication approved in the US for medical abortion and the management of Cushing's syndrome. As a progesterone receptor antagonist, it blocks the action of progesterone, a hormone critical for maintaining pregnancy. When used in combination with misoprostol, mifepristone effectively terminates early pregnancies by inducing uterine contractions and expelling the pregnancy tissue.\n\nIn 2024, the Republican Study Committee proposed a federal budget that [endorsed prohibiting mifepristone](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/22/fact-sheet-house-republicans-endorse-a-national-abortion-ban-with-zero-exceptions-in-latest-budget/), however as of January 2025 this has not been yet enacted. In 2023, [a suit was filed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FDA_v._Alliance_for_Hippocratic_Medicine) by the Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, seeking to restrict access to mifepristone. A preliminary injunction suspending the approval of mifepristone, but this was never enacted as it was partially reverted by the Fifth Circuit and then reversed by the Supreme Court in 2024." }, { "id": 31321, "title": "Will another Oriental fruit fly be found in New Zealand in January 2025", "short_title": "Oriental Fruitfly", "url_title": "Oriental Fruitfly", "slug": "oriental-fruitfly", "author_id": 188975, "author_username": "tco55", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-05T03:49:07.216363Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T03:53:38.394591Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.445010Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T03:53:38.394588Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T02:49:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, 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"header_logo": null, "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 188975, "username": "tco55", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 30958, "title": "Will another Oriental fruit fly be found in New Zealand in January 2025", "created_at": "2025-01-05T03:49:07.216825Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-05T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-05T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T02:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-01T02:49:39.709069Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A single male Oriental fruit fly was found in a surveillance trap in a suburban backyard in Auckland, New Zealand at the beginning of January 2025.\n\n[https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/biosecurity-new-zealand-investigating-and-boosting-trapping-after-auckland-fruit-fly-find/](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/biosecurity-new-zealand-investigating-and-boosting-trapping-after-auckland-fruit-fly-find/)\n\nThe Oriental fruit fly maggots can feed on 300 different fruit and vegetables so there could be an economic cost to the horticulture industry if the Oriental fruit fly were allowed to establish in New Zealand.", "resolution_criteria": "an official announcement about further finds at [https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/)", "fine_print": "if no official press release is made but articles in Stuff or NZHerald present credible sources, this will also resolve as yes.", "post_id": 31321, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737927042.47713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737927042.47713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.05716655630026031 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.66909502252056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 26.813329146611554, "peer_score": 10.06383460018462, "coverage": 0.8836075467951244, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8836075467951244, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 26.813329146611554, "peer_archived_score": 10.06383460018462, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A single male Oriental fruit fly was found in a surveillance trap in a suburban backyard in Auckland, New Zealand at the beginning of January 2025.\n\n[https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/biosecurity-new-zealand-investigating-and-boosting-trapping-after-auckland-fruit-fly-find/](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/biosecurity-new-zealand-investigating-and-boosting-trapping-after-auckland-fruit-fly-find/)\n\nThe Oriental fruit fly maggots can feed on 300 different fruit and vegetables so there could be an economic cost to the horticulture industry if the Oriental fruit fly were allowed to establish in New Zealand." }, { "id": 31320, "title": "Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?", "short_title": "Rogue AI scammer before 2030?", "url_title": "Rogue AI scammer before 2030?", "slug": "rogue-ai-scammer-before-2030", "author_id": 145394, "author_username": "Haiku", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-05T00:56:00.348638Z", "published_at": "2025-01-14T05:26:45.613561Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T03:39:25.135866Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-14T05:26:45.613559Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32619, "name": "AI Warning Shots", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-warning-signs", "description": "# Welcome to the AI Warning Signs community!\r\n\r\nThis community tracks the likelihood of events that may *signal an increase in AI risk*, or *increase the signal of AI risk* to policymakers and the general public.\r\n\r\nSuch warning signs may take the form of surprising capabilities, dangerous behaviors, or major incidents that are a result of the development and deployment of advanced AI systems.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Questions that appear here will also be mirrored on* [*Manifold*](https://manifold.markets/home?q=ai%20warning%20signs\\&s=score\\&f=open\\&ct=ALL\\&p=0\\&fy=1\\&mt=00000\\&sw=0)*.*", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 145394, "username": "Haiku", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32619, "name": "AI Warning Shots", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-warning-signs", "description": "# Welcome to the AI Warning Signs community!\r\n\r\nThis community tracks the likelihood of events that may *signal an increase in AI risk*, or *increase the signal of AI risk* to policymakers and the general public.\r\n\r\nSuch warning signs may take the form of surprising capabilities, dangerous behaviors, or major incidents that are a result of the development and deployment of advanced AI systems.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Questions that appear here will also be mirrored on* [*Manifold*](https://manifold.markets/home?q=ai%20warning%20signs\\&s=score\\&f=open\\&ct=ALL\\&p=0\\&fy=1\\&mt=00000\\&sw=0)*.*", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 145394, "username": "Haiku", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30957, "title": "Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?", "created_at": "2025-01-05T00:56:00.349086Z", "open_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As general-purpose AI systems have become more advanced, their ability to strategically deceive humans has grown and their [proclivity](https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.12822v2) to do so has become more apparent.\n\nSome notable examples: [(1)](https://www.cell.com/patterns/fulltext/S2666-3899\\(24\\)00103-X)\\* [(2)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.01576) [(3)](https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking) [(4)](https://www.apolloresearch.ai/research/scheming-reasoning-evaluations) [(5](https://x.com/PalisadeAI/status/1872666169515389245))\\*\\*\n\n\\* (Compilation through May 2024)\n\\*\\* (Full report pending -- thread accessible [here](https://nitter.poast.org/PalisadeAI/status/1872666169515389245))\n\nAI systems are already more [persuasive](https://the-decoder.com/a-personalized-chatbot-is-more-likely-to-change-your-mind-than-another-human-study-finds/) than the average human and perform at the level of experts in [spear phishing](https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.00586) campaigns. With AI autonomy and agency becoming more capable in tandem, this question asks whether an AI system will independently become a successful scammer.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves YES if before January 1, 2030, credible sources report that an AI system independently and successfully scammed a human, while meeting ALL of the following criteria:\n\n1. To \"scam\" someone is here defined as intentionally using deception, tricks, or other dishonest means to deprive them of money or property.\n2. The total value of money or property lost must equal or exceed \\$500 in 2025 USD.\n3. It must be confirmed that the AI system was not explicitly instructed to scam or engage in other illegal conduct.", "fine_print": "1. A \"Yes\" resolution requires establishing the AI system's apparent intent to scam (roughly as one would judge for a human scammer). This can be gained through e.g. logs of the model's chain-of-thought reasoning or an unambiguous pattern of behavior. Incidents where the AI appears to merely hallucinate/confabulate a falsehood, appears confused, or accidentally offers bad advice do not count for resolution.\n2. The money or property lost by the victim doesn't have to end up under the control of the AI system. For example, an AI intentionally lying to a human to get them to donate to a charity in exchange for some promised value that they do not intend to give would be eligible for a YES resolution if the other criteria are met.\n3. \"Strong\" prompting that may elicit immorality but that does not directly imply illegal conduct does not prevent a YES resolution. (e.g. \"Go make me \\$1k as soon as possible, WHATEVER IT TAKES!\")\n4. It must be the AI's idea. A scam that is overseen by a human or evidence indicates was intended by a human does not count for resolution.\n5. This must occur in the wild. Red-teaming and other safety-testing results do not count toward resolution.\n6. An incident that takes place within a lab, company, or other AI development organization may count so long as the scamming behavior emerges out of a non-safety-testing-related accident and the scam genuinely affects a real person inside or outside of the organization.", "post_id": 31320, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757302754.824796, "end_time": 1761418284.061819, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757302754.824796, "end_time": 1761418284.061819, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9363377537027757 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3551282879037043, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.637953589009114 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As general-purpose AI systems have become more advanced, their ability to strategically deceive humans has grown and their [proclivity](https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.12822v2) to do so has become more apparent.\n\nSome notable examples: [(1)](https://www.cell.com/patterns/fulltext/S2666-3899\\(24\\)00103-X)\\* [(2)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.01576) [(3)](https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking) [(4)](https://www.apolloresearch.ai/research/scheming-reasoning-evaluations) [(5](https://x.com/PalisadeAI/status/1872666169515389245))\\*\\*\n\n\\* (Compilation through May 2024)\n\\*\\* (Full report pending -- thread accessible [here](https://nitter.poast.org/PalisadeAI/status/1872666169515389245))\n\nAI systems are already more [persuasive](https://the-decoder.com/a-personalized-chatbot-is-more-likely-to-change-your-mind-than-another-human-study-finds/) than the average human and perform at the level of experts in [spear phishing](https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.00586) campaigns. With AI autonomy and agency becoming more capable in tandem, this question asks whether an AI system will independently become a successful scammer." }, { "id": 31319, "title": "Will profits from AI models continue to be modest?", "short_title": "Will profits from AI models continue to be modest?", "url_title": "Will profits from AI models continue to be modest?", "slug": "will-profits-from-ai-models-continue-to-be-modest", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-04T19:13:34.527518Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T20:13:28.093317Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.476741Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T20:13:28.093315Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:13:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30956, "title": "Will profits from AI models continue to be modest?", "created_at": "2025-01-04T19:13:34.527980Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:13:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-10T20:13:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-10T20:13:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with high confidence that:** \n\n> Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent (chip-making companies will continue to do well though, in supplying hardware to the companies that build the models; shovels will continue to sell well throughout the gold rush.)", "resolution_criteria": "I will review my 2025 forecasts in 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31319, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with high confidence that:** \n\n> Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent (chip-making companies will continue to do well though, in supplying hardware to the companies that build the models; shovels will continue to sell well throughout the gold rush.)" }, { "id": 31317, "title": "Will many radiologists be replaced by AI in 2025?", "short_title": "Will many radiologists be replaced by AI in 2025?", "url_title": "Will many radiologists be replaced by AI in 2025?", "slug": "will-many-radiologists-be-replaced-by-ai-in-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-04T18:28:12.276824Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T20:11:55.606868Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.096813Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T20:11:55.606866Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:11:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30954, "title": "Will many radiologists be replaced by AI in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-04T18:28:12.277291Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:11:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-10T20:11:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-10T20:11:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with high confidence that:** \n\n> Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI (contra Hinton’s infamous 2016 prediction).", "resolution_criteria": "I will review my 2025 forecasts in 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31317, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747946653.342389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747946653.342389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.005 ], 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"description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with high confidence that:** \n\n> Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI (contra Hinton’s infamous 2016 prediction)." }, { "id": 31316, "title": "Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?", "short_title": "SpaceX F9 Launch Failure in 2025?", "url_title": "SpaceX F9 Launch Failure in 2025?", "slug": "spacex-f9-launch-failure-in-2025", "author_id": 121167, "author_username": "sq_131", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-04T17:51:04.371865Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T14:19:19.244082Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:00:54.313945Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T14:19:19.244080Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-12T14:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30953, "title": "Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-04T17:51:04.372332Z", "open_time": "2025-01-12T14:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-15T14:19:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-15T14:19:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is the dominant launch provider for U.S. and U.S.-allied country space launches. [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) is SpaceX's flagship launch vehicle series, having performed 430 flights as of January 6, 2025. Falcon 9 vehicles have [suffered only 3 launch failures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_history), defined as the vehicle's payload not reaching its intended orbital destination: a partial one in 2012 (where the secondary payload was lost), one in 2015, and one in 2024.\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, any vehicle in the Falcon 9 family has had a failed or partially failed launch, according to SpaceX's reports to the FAA or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* A failed launch is defined as a launch that failed to deliver at least one payload to the intended orbital destination.\n* Falcon Heavy vehicles are not counted as part of the Falcon 9 family.", "post_id": 31316, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756439191.409593, "end_time": 1758051750.941, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756439191.409593, "end_time": 1758051750.941, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2655859197784033 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2274475074830906, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 1.1828221447795308, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is the dominant launch provider for U.S. and U.S.-allied country space launches. [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) is SpaceX's flagship launch vehicle series, having performed 430 flights as of January 6, 2025. Falcon 9 vehicles have [suffered only 3 launch failures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_history), defined as the vehicle's payload not reaching its intended orbital destination: a partial one in 2012 (where the secondary payload was lost), one in 2015, and one in 2024.\n\n" }, { "id": 31315, "title": "Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?", "short_title": "Will inflation be lower in Nov 2025 than it was in Nov 2024?", "url_title": "Will inflation be lower in Nov 2025 than it was in Nov 2024?", "slug": "will-inflation-be-lower-in-nov-2025-than-it-was-in-nov-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-04T16:25:49.361667Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:42:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T05:18:03.149262Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:42:24Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-11T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1036, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30952, "title": "Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?", "created_at": "2025-01-04T16:25:49.362011Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-11T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Inflation [was a top issue](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-harris-inflation-2024/) in the 2024 US presidential election, with Donald Trump saying in his September 10th debate with Kamala Harris, \"We have inflation like very few people have ever seen before. Probably the worst in our nation's history.\" In recent decades, inflation has been as follows:\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1CTp9&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" /> \nTrump has vowed to take a more active role in setting interest rates, [telling](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/18/nx-s1-5076953/should-a-president-have-total-control-over-the-fed-harris-and-trump-disagree) reporters, \"I feel the president should have at least say in there, yeah. I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.\" \n\nA recent report from Moodys [estimates](https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/site-assets/assessing-the-macroeconomic-consequences-of-harris-vs-trump.pdf) an inflation rate of 3.5% in 2025, \"fueled by the higher tariffs, outflow of foreign immigrants, the resulting tighter labor market and more quickly rising labor costs, and tax-cut-fueled fiscal stimulus.\" On the other hand, some experts [have predicted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/financial-experts-2025-predictions-inflation-120345805.html) that the Department of Government Efficiency could put downward pressure on inflation through tax cuts and reduced government spending, which may counteract the effects of policies such as tariffs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November 2025 is lower than it was in November 2024, as reported by the St. Louis Fed at the following location: \n\n[Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1C7Aj)\n\nIf the 12-month percentage change in the CPI in November 2025 is greater than or equal to where it was in November 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "At the time of this question, for November 2024 this value is 2.73258 percent.\n\nIn case the graph does not display the 12-month percentage change in the CPI for each month:\n\n1. Click on \"EDIT GRAPH ⚙️\"\n2. Set \"Units:\" to \"Percent Change from Year Ago\"\n3. Set \"Modify frequency:\" to \"Monthly\"", "post_id": 31315, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757883505.796561, "end_time": 1758287966.427, "forecaster_count": 216, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757883505.796561, "end_time": 1758287966.427, "forecaster_count": 216, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.38675394300259625 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.02831003671807118, 0.0, 0.3343830964430262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03871936895178207, 0.0, 0.9665133592968194, 0.0, 3.87536587911592e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22798775605154734, 0.0018907368020540955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45015052055021, 0.17394942944861866, 0.02161953520250172, 0.03325426188817454, 0.8427377924356911, 0.0, 1.6351380224164114, 0.0025310005765654823, 0.21352699399474953, 0.06742682365461877, 0.0, 1.8189629837738248, 0.431480916174045, 0.08605253638706108, 0.9139714081616067, 0.8910340793746927, 1.8235864472086898, 1.2659289909960365, 0.3200797926606933, 0.04410855369900034, 0.6162564744805828, 3.4583328473977044, 0.4652487048632361, 1.1990986783297113, 0.3985082371565285, 2.138231806236713, 0.36469419798180963, 0.7753667739479151, 0.25562847220978463, 0.9078473786463416, 0.19785088737381273, 0.37805923804562247, 0.6811148417679935, 0.027637026543282994, 0.0011595949411533832, 0.014863451854223674, 1.1458487427402009, 0.17692844548428532, 0.11452359921342904, 0.0, 0.05945138437976873, 0.5345960478684944, 0.0006886757759615284, 0.0016777283154645435, 0.0, 0.005755804572309786, 0.8502051022400728, 0.0, 0.0005609740524822273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14602734158275074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023894682702585196, 0.006519303769468532, 0.07021267514426166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026799046343052965, 0.0030011970915661606, 0.00018151433504738924, 0.0646557838584793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009577040387754323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19660411550974163 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1809, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Inflation [was a top issue](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-harris-inflation-2024/) in the 2024 US presidential election, with Donald Trump saying in his September 10th debate with Kamala Harris, \"We have inflation like very few people have ever seen before. Probably the worst in our nation's history.\" In recent decades, inflation has been as follows:\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1CTp9&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" /> \nTrump has vowed to take a more active role in setting interest rates, [telling](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/18/nx-s1-5076953/should-a-president-have-total-control-over-the-fed-harris-and-trump-disagree) reporters, \"I feel the president should have at least say in there, yeah. I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.\" \n\nA recent report from Moodys [estimates](https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/site-assets/assessing-the-macroeconomic-consequences-of-harris-vs-trump.pdf) an inflation rate of 3.5% in 2025, \"fueled by the higher tariffs, outflow of foreign immigrants, the resulting tighter labor market and more quickly rising labor costs, and tax-cut-fueled fiscal stimulus.\" On the other hand, some experts [have predicted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/financial-experts-2025-predictions-inflation-120345805.html) that the Department of Government Efficiency could put downward pressure on inflation through tax cuts and reduced government spending, which may counteract the effects of policies such as tariffs." }, { "id": 31307, "title": "Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?", "short_title": "Will NVDA outperform SPY in 2025?", "url_title": "Will NVDA outperform SPY in 2025?", "slug": "will-nvda-outperform-spy-in-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-04T01:51:38.217858Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:42:10.728016Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T01:13:59.388020Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:42:10.728014Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1870, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30945, "title": "Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-04T01:51:38.218214Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The S\\&P 500 is a market cap weighted index of 500 of the largest companies in the United State stock market. These 500 companies [cover](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview) approximately 80% of the total stock market capitalization in the United States.\n\nIt is notoriously difficult for single stocks to beat the S\\&P 500 index. In 2024, [SPY](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/122215/spy-spdr-sp-500-trust-etf.asp), an Exchange Traded Fund designed to track the performance of the S\\&P 500, returned 24.9%. Of the 503 stocks in the fund, 346 did worse than 24.9%, meaning 69% of stocks in the S\\&P underperformed the index. (See list at [Finviz](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111\\&f=idx_sp500).) Studies have shown that this is not unusual, and that over the long term the median individual stock underperforms a passive strategy of buying and holding an index fund. (See for example [here](https://exencialwealth.com/resources/looking-under-the-hood-of-indexes) and page 6 of [this pdf.](https://www.chase.com/content/dam/privatebanking/en/mobile/documents/eotm/eotm_2014_09_02_agonyescstasy.pdf))\n\nAt the time this question was written, Nvidia, manufacturer of hardware and software for [accelerated computing](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/what-is-accelerated-computing/) and [artificial intelligence](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html), has massively outperformed the S\\&P 500 since 2015. Since that year, its average annualized return has been 75.6%, as compared with 13.0% for SPY: \n\n\n\n(Source: [PortfolioVisualizer](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y\\&sl=1N1gQs4wZpgRHUUOWsN55o))\n\nFor more information, please see:\n\n* VisualCapitalist: [The Pyramid of S\\&P 500 Returns (1874-2024)](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp-500-annual-returns-since-1874/)\n* Yahoo Finance: [Prediction: This Will Be the First Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock To Reach a \\$4 Trillion Valuation in 2025](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-first-artificial-intelligence-ai-223800235.html)\n* Business Insider: [Nvidia gained \\$2 trillion in its stellar 2024 rally. Here's what Wall Street sees for the chip titan this year.](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-forecast-nvda-price-prediciton-blackwell-gpu-ai-chips-2025-1)\n* Andy Lin's Long-term Stock Investment Blog: [Nvidia's new business set to grow its share price](https://www.granitefirm.com/blog/us/2024/09/04/nvidias-new-business/)\n* [NVIDIA's SWOT analysis: ai giant's stock poised for growth amid challenges](https://www.investing.com/news/swot-analysis/nvidias-swot-analysis-ai-giants-stock-poised-for-growth-amid-challenges-93CH-3794759)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Nvidia's stock outperforms the S\\&P 500 in 2025. If its return is less than or equal to that of the S\\&P 500, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThe resolution sources are: \n\n* The Yahoo Finance history page for [NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/).[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/)\n* The Yahoo Finance history for the [SPDR S\\&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/)", "fine_print": "Each stock's return for 2025 will be calculated by taking its adjusted close at Yahoo Finance for the final trading day of 2025, dividing it by the adjusted close price for December 31, 2024, subtracting 1 and then multiplying by 100%. For example:\n\n* In the final trading day of 2024, Nvidia's adj. close price was $134.29. Its adj. close price on the final trading day of 2023 was $49.51. Its return for the year was 171.2%\n* In the final trading day of 2024, SPY's adj. close price was $586.08. Its adj. close price on the final trading day of 2023 was $469.29. Its return for the year was 24.9%", "post_id": 31307, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757744451.214341, "end_time": 1758245792.448, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757744451.214341, "end_time": 1758245792.448, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.8242996148547294 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.173763313382669e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009561853349026135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015787990924279367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020634228187575984, 6.810199665283768e-08, 0.004577928018037328, 0.0, 0.0005398776480543666, 4.9354931540985824e-05, 0.4641921986339252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5353439264468575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6007492326780468, 0.0, 0.16002998627299636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5257651974085551, 1.4494347397832052e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4605054594773906e-05, 0.0003651427798878299, 6.981614338101365e-07, 0.010701357173537377, 0.025510477766838163, 0.00993186528979473, 0.016448831635678802, 0.0, 0.001135202600302959, 0.0, 0.017504277872173485, 0.007382996423157926, 0.007039387476400124, 1.2092798817051247e-05, 0.0, 0.022154007186412368, 0.5807408964178046, 0.0004983570811089863, 0.0007707658287995023, 0.0, 0.04425334663492696, 0.01633056616996987, 2.75288949331955e-05, 1.8030027160369324e-06, 0.12951203431432382, 0.7428227740809334, 0.9620263478128075, 0.028046472350290935, 0.011681651620144451, 0.0030117846939803437, 3.58801220450721e-05, 1.9701355334158448, 0.6931255742493334, 0.05391143405922834, 0.24891191133940527, 0.0007878969483216538, 0.6527941760596193, 0.21101798142288253, 0.6083742999523488, 0.7677845042734144, 2.0150796165977596, 3.284399384840899, 0.2319888893098001, 3.045881756136842, 1.3259674700861817, 0.6851783378949976, 6.800819844362592, 0.18855146644010104, 1.3399223050324633, 0.3660672051234257, 0.38832598728509904, 1.293337823162322, 0.0, 0.3553934295061429, 0.31138494761166324, 2.520929943955368 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 79, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3642, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The S\\&P 500 is a market cap weighted index of 500 of the largest companies in the United State stock market. These 500 companies [cover](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview) approximately 80% of the total stock market capitalization in the United States.\n\nIt is notoriously difficult for single stocks to beat the S\\&P 500 index. In 2024, [SPY](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/122215/spy-spdr-sp-500-trust-etf.asp), an Exchange Traded Fund designed to track the performance of the S\\&P 500, returned 24.9%. Of the 503 stocks in the fund, 346 did worse than 24.9%, meaning 69% of stocks in the S\\&P underperformed the index. (See list at [Finviz](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111\\&f=idx_sp500).) Studies have shown that this is not unusual, and that over the long term the median individual stock underperforms a passive strategy of buying and holding an index fund. (See for example [here](https://exencialwealth.com/resources/looking-under-the-hood-of-indexes) and page 6 of [this pdf.](https://www.chase.com/content/dam/privatebanking/en/mobile/documents/eotm/eotm_2014_09_02_agonyescstasy.pdf))\n\nAt the time this question was written, Nvidia, manufacturer of hardware and software for [accelerated computing](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/what-is-accelerated-computing/) and [artificial intelligence](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html), has massively outperformed the S\\&P 500 since 2015. Since that year, its average annualized return has been 75.6%, as compared with 13.0% for SPY: \n\n\n\n(Source: [PortfolioVisualizer](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y\\&sl=1N1gQs4wZpgRHUUOWsN55o))\n\nFor more information, please see:\n\n* VisualCapitalist: [The Pyramid of S\\&P 500 Returns (1874-2024)](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp-500-annual-returns-since-1874/)\n* Yahoo Finance: [Prediction: This Will Be the First Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock To Reach a \\$4 Trillion Valuation in 2025](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-first-artificial-intelligence-ai-223800235.html)\n* Business Insider: [Nvidia gained \\$2 trillion in its stellar 2024 rally. Here's what Wall Street sees for the chip titan this year.](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-forecast-nvda-price-prediciton-blackwell-gpu-ai-chips-2025-1)\n* Andy Lin's Long-term Stock Investment Blog: [Nvidia's new business set to grow its share price](https://www.granitefirm.com/blog/us/2024/09/04/nvidias-new-business/)\n* [NVIDIA's SWOT analysis: ai giant's stock poised for growth amid challenges](https://www.investing.com/news/swot-analysis/nvidias-swot-analysis-ai-giants-stock-poised-for-growth-amid-challenges-93CH-3794759)" }, { "id": 31303, "title": "Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?", "short_title": "Inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in 2025?", "url_title": "Inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in 2025?", "slug": "inflation-adjusted-gas-prices-rise-in-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T22:07:41.656871Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:42:36.629744Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T07:29:23.617815Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:42:36.629741Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1068, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30944, "title": "Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T22:07:41.657250Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-20T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-20T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gas prices are a highly visible economic indicator in the US, as [almost 90%](https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/number-of-drivers-in-us.html) of American adults drive. Gas prices have an outsized [effect on consumer sentiment](https://www.convenience.org/Media/Daily/2022/Oct/27/1-Gas-Prices-Impact-Consumer-Sentiment_Consumers), and consequently play a significant role [when it comes to elections](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election). President-elect Donald Trump raised the issue of gas prices repeatedly during his campaign and [promised to bring gas prices down](https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-elected-president-ll-202724792.html).\n\nThe US Energy Information Administration (EIA) regularly publishes [national retail gasoline prices](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet\\&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg\\&f=m) based on a volume-weighted [survey sample](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php) of retail gasoline outlets.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if inflation-adjusted national average gas prices for December 2025 (in dollars per gallon) are higher than national average gas prices for December 2024. Resolution will be determined according to the monthly data provided by the [Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet\\&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg\\&f=m) (EIA), adjusted for inflation using [BLS' CPI Inflation Calculator](https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm).", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve when both the EIA gas price and CPI inflation index for December 2025 are first publicly available and accessed by Metaculus.\n* If data from the US EIA or the CPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is not available, Metaculus may select a similar source of data or resolve as **Ambiguous** at their discretion.\n* EIA's series ID for gas prices is `PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG.M`\n* BLS' series ID for the consumer price index is `CPIAUCSL`", "post_id": 31303, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757437429.941, "end_time": 1758327004.197, "forecaster_count": 218, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.532 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757437429.941, "end_time": 1758327004.197, "forecaster_count": 218, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.532 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.48808400308859723 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.001017084389782027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021069838835539767, 0.0, 0.014198362404768461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16480487380063127, 0.0, 0.041213633900926624, 0.0, 0.001874259396737626, 0.5399125623952202, 0.024247008184469322, 0.08424297302233362, 0.0, 0.051047590327879706, 0.41699278483406166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44683426597422576, 0.3225939094195926, 0.0006881468578132637, 0.12054737864404734, 0.0042154400947901505, 0.2423287318520816, 0.13856964254513873, 1.0352383419525744, 0.0, 0.04302934209872569, 2.9127524799721813, 0.0025040179109331877, 0.45742419995774547, 0.8766749779842569, 0.44918800891274746, 1.535438344657933, 0.0, 0.03683933978660609, 0.019289984919528873, 0.6090309316269176, 4.831293391384266, 3.596997245663158, 1.3235369037801263, 0.990075781353871, 0.6933068333900178, 1.846545702193411, 0.5183685175927828, 0.04705152261752709, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5046663105767046, 0.0, 0.001083488742437393, 0.004350589146197948, 0.0, 0.006077213306706615, 0.6989398862971432, 0.002307989634036604, 0.008107638076891743, 0.0, 0.7999885008722192, 0.0, 0.0035021105389753926, 0.0, 0.11135656038093864, 0.021865994140859234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013060020798464345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031699672108084716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032051660888526345, 0.0, 0.0532550046892542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34127113604812864 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 36, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1755, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gas prices are a highly visible economic indicator in the US, as [almost 90%](https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/number-of-drivers-in-us.html) of American adults drive. Gas prices have an outsized [effect on consumer sentiment](https://www.convenience.org/Media/Daily/2022/Oct/27/1-Gas-Prices-Impact-Consumer-Sentiment_Consumers), and consequently play a significant role [when it comes to elections](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election). President-elect Donald Trump raised the issue of gas prices repeatedly during his campaign and [promised to bring gas prices down](https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-elected-president-ll-202724792.html).\n\nThe US Energy Information Administration (EIA) regularly publishes [national retail gasoline prices](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet\\&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg\\&f=m) based on a volume-weighted [survey sample](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php) of retail gasoline outlets." }, { "id": 31302, "title": "Will driverless cars — in which no human is required to attend to traffic — continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities?", "short_title": "Driverless cars see usage limited to modest number of cities", "url_title": "Driverless cars see usage limited to modest number of cities", "slug": "driverless-cars-see-usage-limited-to-modest-number-of-cities", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T21:38:54.241355Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T20:11:14.100126Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.714374Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T20:11:14.100124Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:11:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30943, "title": "Will driverless cars — in which no human is required to attend to traffic — continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T21:38:54.241693Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:11:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-10T20:11:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-10T20:11:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with high confidence that:** \n\n> Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weather. Human drivers will still make up a large part of the economy. (Again, see also [<u>Rodney Brooks</u>](https://rodneybrooks.com/blog/).)", "resolution_criteria": "I will review my 2025 forecasts in 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31302, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with high confidence that:** \n\n> Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weather. Human drivers will still make up a large part of the economy. (Again, see also [<u>Rodney Brooks</u>](https://rodneybrooks.com/blog/).)" }, { "id": 31301, "title": "Will AI copyright lawsuits continue in 2025?", "short_title": "Will AI copyright lawsuits continue in 2025?", "url_title": "Will AI copyright lawsuits continue in 2025?", "slug": "will-ai-copyright-lawsuits-continue-in-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T21:13:47.159339Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T20:10:40.107507Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.010564Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T20:10:40.107506Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30942, "title": "Will AI copyright lawsuits continue in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T21:13:47.159709Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-10T20:10:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-10T20:10:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with high confidence that:**\n\n> Copyright lawsuits over generative AI will continue throughout the year.", "resolution_criteria": "I will review my 2025 forecasts in 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31301, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with high confidence that:**\n\n> Copyright lawsuits over generative AI will continue throughout the year." }, { "id": 31299, "title": "Will less than 10% of the global workforce be replaced by AI in 2025?", "short_title": "Less than 10% of the workforce is replaced by AI in 2025?", "url_title": "Less than 10% of the workforce is replaced by AI in 2025?", "slug": "less-than-10-of-the-workforce-is-replaced-by-ai-in-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T20:57:29.901111Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T20:09:51.170746Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.019200Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T20:09:51.170744Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:09:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30940, "title": "Will less than 10% of the global workforce be replaced by AI in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T20:57:29.901449Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:09:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-10T20:09:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-10T20:09:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with high confidence that:** \n\n> Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%. Commercial artists and voiceover actors have perhaps been the hardest hit so far.(Of course many jobs will be *modified*, as people begin to use new tools.)", "resolution_criteria": "I will review my 2025 forecasts in 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31299, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754595781.887, "end_time": 1761390709.859, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754595781.887, "end_time": 1761390709.859, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.999 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with high confidence that:** \n\n> Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%. Commercial artists and voiceover actors have perhaps been the hardest hit so far.(Of course many jobs will be *modified*, as people begin to use new tools.)" }, { "id": 31298, "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?", "short_title": "1,000 Deaths Due to Israel-Iran Conflict in 2025?", "url_title": "1,000 Deaths Due to Israel-Iran Conflict in 2025?", "slug": "1000-deaths-due-to-israel-iran-conflict-in-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T20:39:42.298209Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:41:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.203897Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:41:24Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-23T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-23T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1306, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T08:03:39.444807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30939, "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T20:39:42.298548Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-23T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-04T19:09:35.624569Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-23T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The relationship between Iran and Israel has been fraught since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. Iran officially recognizes Israel as an [illegitimate entity](https://www.rferl.org/a/1062471.html) and has supported various anti-Israel militant groups, such as [Hezbollah in Lebanon](https://www.mei.edu/publications/hezbollahs-regional-activities-support-irans-proxy-networks). The two countries have engaged in covert operations against each other and have been indirect military adversaries in conflicts in the Middle East.\n\nIn recent years, tensions have increased, particularly with the [2023 war in Gaza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) and the parallel conflict between [Hezbollah and Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hezbollah_conflict_\\(2023%E2%80%93present\\)). There have also been several instances of direct conflict between the two countries, including the [Israeli airstike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_airstrike_on_the_Iranian_consulate_in_Damascus) and the [retaliatory airstrikes by Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel). These events have heightened concerns over the possibility of a larger conflict breaking out between the two countries.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, at least 1,000 deaths have occurred in direct conflict between Iran and Israel, according to reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). To the extent possible, only deaths caused by and to citizens of each country, members of the military of each country, or people within the borders of each country will be counted toward the 1,000 death threshold.\n\nDirect conflict is defined as conflict between the military forces or law enforcement of Iran and Israel using kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear means and all deaths caused by such a conflict count, including civilians. Deaths from attacks by or towards proxies (e.g., Iran's proxy Hezbollah) do not count for the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "* In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admins may wait up to February 1, 2026, to make a determination and may use all information published prior to that date.\n* Deaths will be totaled over the entire calendar year.\n* If reported death totals do not specify which conflict they occurred in (e.g., a total of Israeli military deaths without disaggregation between conflicts with Iran or Hezbollah), Metaculus may use available estimates to determine whether the threshold has been met.\n* Deaths from covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n* Deaths from attacks by and towards the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps) will count, as they are a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces.\n* Deaths caused by friendly fire do not count, as long as they are explicitly referred to as such by credible sources.\n* Deaths caused indirectly, for example as a result of sabotage or cyber-warfare do not count.\n* Direct effects of an attack (e.g. fires, building collapses, or other immediate consequences occurring within 24 hours of the attack) would be included in the count. Effects that develop over longer timeframes (e.g. economic disruption) would not be counted.", "post_id": 31298, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750651136.574621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1254, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750651136.574621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1254, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12, 0.88 ], "means": [ 0.8209426070484264 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.290413045387499, 0.3969884561232072, 0.09004892847459928, 0.24206408556203368, 0.0593822344676001, 0.3621449007408331, 0.22389424575472017, 0.06598997940564112, 0.09280348324874829, 0.051782207573599054, 0.33555490590388715, 0.12669029009967409, 0.1069571615210893, 0.013799093568010273, 0.03656308740018796, 0.24315776415814827, 0.06408237997646656, 0.2875293533309873, 0.009190190159929078, 4.744234227300525e-05, 0.2554849215674183, 0.0029922146255109733, 0.05932986103564, 0.2003190487343368, 0.0024349931514895612, 0.13086570734009734, 0.017825592833592835, 0.020327838082451557, 0.0017998607175924337, 0.0, 0.25606832485569825, 0.00466728096785137, 0.14996872156308325, 0.005831288998378521, 0.04906552746822316, 0.012340302595211426, 0.00022149119228314382, 0.0, 0.006156927558994036, 1.890329851579763e-05, 0.03543076448722944, 0.0023903116739977725, 0.0002491704279451765, 0.04762265294941345, 0.0003044624575490197, 0.19148947406860561, 0.0015324153376616303, 0.0009960911968383318, 0.0, 1.0918057084936107e-05, 0.5114628209461424, 0.0, 0.0005469995101882814, 5.0163551132463305e-08, 0.10271682305827559, 0.2366491830363947, 0.03975140278742419, 0.09966191163377036, 0.0, 0.13262274233382046, 0.8082727587648852, 0.0, 0.14181959700707586, 0.11776179276847283, 0.09052442764727626, 0.2050954977496111, 0.0, 0.44500719659966104, 5.6030347367371106e-14, 0.7080328628217124, 1.0389851140022324, 0.6399580961183348, 0.27405726425807414, 0.4869627276534594, 5.131272685857941e-05, 4.012655258715896, 1.517029424453114, 0.046691233947131115, 0.3783725169832609, 0.39718140202541047, 3.410284500883586, 1.6275488301077192, 0.011268657669225114, 1.2639464210872888, 0.7253191179874734, 4.391266175640199, 2.0533570618493315, 1.3858010601260757, 3.40667344961366, 1.3713070843521504, 9.511552688203851, 1.6366947834270036, 1.9419516976466142, 0.8807704520716944, 0.6739292667272776, 6.053417360768752, 1.840854725119216, 2.4721469223553862, 1.0749721531016, 6.6051403362205745 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -114.84907742462387, "peer_score": -5.529823333441802, "coverage": 0.45971531951849337, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996188627626595, "spot_peer_score": -9.171229859899478, "spot_baseline_score": -247.39311883324123, "baseline_archived_score": -114.84907742462387, "peer_archived_score": -5.529823333441802, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -9.171229859899478, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -247.39311883324123 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2677, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The relationship between Iran and Israel has been fraught since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. Iran officially recognizes Israel as an [illegitimate entity](https://www.rferl.org/a/1062471.html) and has supported various anti-Israel militant groups, such as [Hezbollah in Lebanon](https://www.mei.edu/publications/hezbollahs-regional-activities-support-irans-proxy-networks). The two countries have engaged in covert operations against each other and have been indirect military adversaries in conflicts in the Middle East.\n\nIn recent years, tensions have increased, particularly with the [2023 war in Gaza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) and the parallel conflict between [Hezbollah and Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hezbollah_conflict_\\(2023%E2%80%93present\\)). There have also been several instances of direct conflict between the two countries, including the [Israeli airstike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_airstrike_on_the_Iranian_consulate_in_Damascus) and the [retaliatory airstrikes by Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel). These events have heightened concerns over the possibility of a larger conflict breaking out between the two countries." } ] }
](http://2024.%5Cn%5Cn){kind=link}
\n\n(Source](http://SPY:%20%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn(Source){kind=link}