Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1340
{ "count": 5901, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1360", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1320", "results": [ { "id": 31296, "title": "Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?", "short_title": "Will FY 2025 deportations in the US be ≥2x those of FY 2024?", "url_title": "Will FY 2025 deportations in the US be ≥2x those of FY 2024?", "slug": "will-fy-2025-deportations-in-the-us-be-2x-those-of-fy-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T20:37:29.384681Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:41:11.924050Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T08:26:40.231035Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:41:11.924046Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-19T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1359, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30937, "title": "Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T20:37:29.385044Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-19T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For fiscal year 2024, which ran from October 1, 2023 to September 30, 2024, ICE [reported](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ice-deportations-catch-up-trump-era-numbers-fy-2024-biden-admin-comes-close) 271,484 deportations of illegal immigrants. This was up 43% compared to the 190,197 deportations in 2023, and was also up 3% compared with the 262,591 deportations [reported](https://www.ice.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Document/2019/eroReportFY2019.pdf) for the final pre-pandemic year of 2019, which was the peak number of deportations in Donald Trump's first term. Additionally, the number of deportations in 2023 was a [10-year high](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/deportations-by-ice-10-year-high-in-2024-surpassing-trump-era-peak/). \n\nIn the 2024 election year, Donald Trump made increased deportations a central promise of his campaign, with signs at the Republican National Convention [saying](https://apnews.com/article/trump-mass-deportations-latino-voters-ec64f85e3633c9c7a8a247eaf9feb64f) \"Mass Deportation Now!\" In a recent interview with Time Magazine, Trump [discussed](https://time.com/6972022/donald-trump-transcript-2024-election/) 15 to 20 million people when asked about his deportation plans. However, as [pointed out](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/19/trump-immigration-deportation-border-migrants-detention-camps-mexico-dhs-ice/) in Foreign Policy Magazine: \n\n> In his first term, Trump did not push very hard. While he [all but shut down](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-politics-virus-outbreak-immigration-immigration-policy-1f8c91e31fba158126f8e91c1453b13f) refugee admissions from overseas, took steps to curb legal migration, and tightened the U.S. border with Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, his administration did little to remove migrants already present in the country. The total number of deportations during his first four years was [1.5 million](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/11/politics/deportations-trump-presidency-what-matters/index.html)—half as many as President Barack Obama’s first term and similar to the number in Obama’s second term and outgoing President Joe Biden’s four years.\n\nFor more information please see: \n\n* [ICE Fiscal Year 2024 Annual Report](https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf)\n* EconoFact: [Immigrant Deportations: Trends and Impacts](https://econofact.org/immigrant-deportations-trends-and-impacts)\n* Spectrum News: [Experts discuss magnitude of resources needed to locate people eligible for deportation](https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/news/2024/12/05/immigration-experts-mass-deportation-resources)\n* NBC News: [Inside the 'targeted operations' ICE agents carry out against undocumented immigrants](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/targeted-operations-ice-agents-carry-undocumented-immigrants-rcna184805)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the total number of expulsions or removals [reported](https://www.ice.gov/spotlight/statistics) by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for FY 2025 is at least double the number shown for FY 2024 at the time. If the number reported for FY 2025 is less than double that of FY 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The number shown at the time of this question for FY 2024 is 271,484 (271,484 [Title 8](https://uscode.house.gov/browse/prelim@title8\\&edition=prelim) Removals and 0 [Title 42](https://uscode.house.gov/browse/prelim@title42\\&edition=prelim) Expulsions). Thus, double that number would be 542,968, and that would be the threshold for **Yes**. However, if ICE later revises the number for FY 2024 by the time it posts its FY 2025 figures, then the revised number reported at the time will be used. Following the resolution of this question, no further revisions to either FY 2024 or FY 2025 numbers will be taken into account.\n\nIn addition to Titles 8 and 42, any other authorities unambiguously included by ICE as part of its total number of reported deportations, expulsions or removals will also count.\n\nIf ICE stops timely publishing these figures at the main resolution source, the question may resolve based on other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 31296, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757852933.164044, "end_time": 1758260440.422, "forecaster_count": 280, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757852933.164044, "end_time": 1758260440.422, "forecaster_count": 280, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.16386423542434192 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1898285933636126, 1.046559880644434, 0.5337358946923392, 1.1494385210349607, 1.1375145507028068, 2.938797788748897, 0.48779017103159833, 1.7130782524322865, 4.4132588096078225, 2.7377044664457455, 3.42191627893169, 1.0068195257027972, 0.4918304844440975, 0.0021707536399509977, 0.5634950214548109, 1.3046334904431747, 1.1089267486519263, 0.1030801155747626, 0.761379317504349, 0.06369281883438807, 0.6688717289581281, 0.060518132173712894, 0.12620877578275067, 0.0, 0.010816906902658886, 0.4436777524965134, 0.018183824395353005, 0.0009228370655726484, 0.15483116782540085, 0.0, 0.371511450513374, 0.0, 0.16077169285161727, 0.3420851246469104, 0.005053483919928278, 0.17968853497592835, 8.399684642947259e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019416025661286022, 0.07179626817852414, 4.1081570228105235e-05, 0.07494019324548186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012499537288505487, 0.0, 0.8101880572460755, 0.0, 0.048239306697751574, 0.028345564851822592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23018705725067296, 0.011315182325010113, 0.00039170321349121746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037149134180719805, 0.005513046327939703, 0.001451494587371886, 0.0, 0.0006410718537227054, 1.7270446318797826e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03222460702437808, 3.567007490623989e-05, 0.0, 2.570598978350702e-05, 0.0, 0.013067733727251424, 0.0, 0.0062742787488615885, 0.0006077047043638432, 0.0, 0.06807511502377452, 0.0, 0.03241720965427899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004906119397433451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7546551013324625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030703968296366263, 0.0, 0.9582254546148409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042487906855726815 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 67, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2679, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For fiscal year 2024, which ran from October 1, 2023 to September 30, 2024, ICE [reported](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ice-deportations-catch-up-trump-era-numbers-fy-2024-biden-admin-comes-close) 271,484 deportations of illegal immigrants. This was up 43% compared to the 190,197 deportations in 2023, and was also up 3% compared with the 262,591 deportations [reported](https://www.ice.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Document/2019/eroReportFY2019.pdf) for the final pre-pandemic year of 2019, which was the peak number of deportations in Donald Trump's first term. Additionally, the number of deportations in 2023 was a [10-year high](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/deportations-by-ice-10-year-high-in-2024-surpassing-trump-era-peak/). \n\nIn the 2024 election year, Donald Trump made increased deportations a central promise of his campaign, with signs at the Republican National Convention [saying](https://apnews.com/article/trump-mass-deportations-latino-voters-ec64f85e3633c9c7a8a247eaf9feb64f) \"Mass Deportation Now!\" In a recent interview with Time Magazine, Trump [discussed](https://time.com/6972022/donald-trump-transcript-2024-election/) 15 to 20 million people when asked about his deportation plans. However, as [pointed out](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/19/trump-immigration-deportation-border-migrants-detention-camps-mexico-dhs-ice/) in Foreign Policy Magazine: \n\n> In his first term, Trump did not push very hard. While he [all but shut down](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-politics-virus-outbreak-immigration-immigration-policy-1f8c91e31fba158126f8e91c1453b13f) refugee admissions from overseas, took steps to curb legal migration, and tightened the U.S. border with Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, his administration did little to remove migrants already present in the country. The total number of deportations during his first four years was [1.5 million](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/11/politics/deportations-trump-presidency-what-matters/index.html)—half as many as President Barack Obama’s first term and similar to the number in Obama’s second term and outgoing President Joe Biden’s four years.\n\nFor more information please see: \n\n* [ICE Fiscal Year 2024 Annual Report](https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf)\n* EconoFact: [Immigrant Deportations: Trends and Impacts](https://econofact.org/immigrant-deportations-trends-and-impacts)\n* Spectrum News: [Experts discuss magnitude of resources needed to locate people eligible for deportation](https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/news/2024/12/05/immigration-experts-mass-deportation-resources)\n* NBC News: [Inside the 'targeted operations' ICE agents carry out against undocumented immigrants](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/targeted-operations-ice-agents-carry-undocumented-immigrants-rcna184805)" }, { "id": 31295, "title": "Will the valuations for major AI companies start to fall in 2025?", "short_title": "Will the valuations for major AI companies start to fall?", "url_title": "Will the valuations for major AI companies start to fall?", "slug": "will-the-valuations-for-major-ai-companies-start-to-fall", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T19:20:53.844697Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T20:08:40.450416Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.645968Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T20:08:40.450414Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30936, "title": "Will the valuations for major AI companies start to fall in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T19:20:53.845047Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-10T20:08:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-10T20:08:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with medium confidence that:** \n\n> 2025 could well be the year in which valuations for major AI companies start to fall. (Though, famously, “[<u>the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent</u>](https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/)”)", "resolution_criteria": "I will review my 2025 forecasts in 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31295, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with medium confidence that:** \n\n> 2025 could well be the year in which valuations for major AI companies start to fall. (Though, famously, “[<u>the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent</u>](https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/)”)" }, { "id": 31294, "title": "Will Greenland become independent before 2035?", "short_title": "Greenland independent before 2035?", "url_title": "Greenland independent before 2035?", "slug": "greenland-independent-before-2035", "author_id": 132038, "author_username": "adamig", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T19:19:42.714671Z", "published_at": "2025-01-13T15:58:08.692959Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.391209Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-13T15:58:08.692957Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-16T15:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30935, "title": "Will Greenland become independent before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T19:19:42.715078Z", "open_time": "2025-01-16T15:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-20T15:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-20T15:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Greenland is the worlds largest island, home to 57,000 people and, as of January 2025, the largest autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark. However, [polls conucted in 2016 and 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlandic_independence#Polling) show that a clear majority of its population supports independence. In early January 2025, Mute Egede, Greenland's Prime Minister and member of the pro-independence party Community of the People, [said that](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/01/03/greenlands-pm-pushes-for-independence-from-denmark-amid-trumps-interest) \"it is now time for \\[Greenland] to take the next step\" and mentioned that an independence referendum could coincide with parliamentary elections in April.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, Greenland is officially recognised as an independent and sovereign state by Denmark.\n\n* If Greenland transitions to a [free association](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_state) or similar relationship with Denmark, this question will be resolved as **Yes**, as long as Greenland can unilaterally end this relationship.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31294, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756111206.785815, "end_time": 1768468500.942966, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756111206.785815, "end_time": 1768468500.942966, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.27006559671482555 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6718862593113413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7559818075393876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Greenland is the worlds largest island, home to 57,000 people and, as of January 2025, the largest autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark. However, [polls conucted in 2016 and 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlandic_independence#Polling) show that a clear majority of its population supports independence. In early January 2025, Mute Egede, Greenland's Prime Minister and member of the pro-independence party Community of the People, [said that](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/01/03/greenlands-pm-pushes-for-independence-from-denmark-amid-trumps-interest) \"it is now time for \\[Greenland] to take the next step\" and mentioned that an independence referendum could coincide with parliamentary elections in April." }, { "id": 31293, "title": "Will Sora continue to have trouble with physics in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Sora continue to have trouble with physics?", "url_title": "Will Sora continue to have trouble with physics?", "slug": "will-sora-continue-to-have-trouble-with-physics", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T19:16:42.523274Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T20:08:24.491980Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.570993Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T20:08:24.491977Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30934, "title": "Will Sora continue to have trouble with physics in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T19:16:42.523615Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-10T20:08:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-10T20:08:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecast first published in [25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with medium confidence that:** \n\n> Sora will continue to [<u>have trouble with physics</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sora-still-appears-to-have-trouble). (Google’s Veo 2 seems to be better but I have not been able to experiment with it, and suspect that changes of state and the persistence of objects will still cause problems; a separate not-yet-fully released hybrid system called [<u>Genesis</u>](https://genesis-world.readthedocs.io/en/latest/) that works on different principles looks potentially interesting.)", "resolution_criteria": "I will review my 2025 forecasts in 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31293, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forecast first published in [25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with medium confidence that:** \n\n> Sora will continue to [<u>have trouble with physics</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/sora-still-appears-to-have-trouble). (Google’s Veo 2 seems to be better but I have not been able to experiment with it, and suspect that changes of state and the persistence of objects will still cause problems; a separate not-yet-fully released hybrid system called [<u>Genesis</u>](https://genesis-world.readthedocs.io/en/latest/) that works on different principles looks potentially interesting.)" }, { "id": 31292, "title": "Will neurosymbolic AI see a substantial increase in visibility, research activity, and adoption in AI development in 2025?", "short_title": "Neurosymbolic AI prominent in 2025?", "url_title": "Neurosymbolic AI prominent in 2025?", "slug": "neurosymbolic-ai-prominent-in-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T19:11:11.944934Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T20:08:01.115865Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.342180Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T20:08:01.115863Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:07:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30933, "title": "Will neurosymbolic AI see a substantial increase in visibility, research activity, and adoption in AI development in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T19:11:11.945326Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-10T20:07:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-10T20:07:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with medium confidence that:** \n\n> [<u>Neurosymbolic AI will become much more prominent</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt).", "resolution_criteria": "I will review my 2025 forecasts in 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31292, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with medium confidence that:** \n\n> [<u>Neurosymbolic AI will become much more prominent</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphaproof-alphageometry-chatgpt)." }, { "id": 31291, "title": "Will there be a \"GPT-5 level\" model, as judged by community consensus, released by December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "GPT-5 level model in 2025?", "url_title": "GPT-5 level model in 2025?", "slug": "gpt-5-level-model-in-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T19:05:20.955882Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T20:07:32.245062Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.556818Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T20:07:32.245060Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:07:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30932, "title": "Will there be a \"GPT-5 level\" model, as judged by community consensus, released by December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T19:05:20.956419Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-10T20:07:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-10T20:07:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with low confidence that:** \n\n> There could continue to be no “GPT-5 level” model (meaning a huge, across the board quantum leap forward as judged by community consensus) throughout 2025. Instead we may see models like o1 that are quite good at many tasks for which high-quality synthetic data can be created, but in other domains only incrementally better than GPT-4.", "resolution_criteria": "I will review my 2025 forecasts in 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31291, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754898462.182055, "end_time": 1762850863.417, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754898462.182055, "end_time": 1762850863.417, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.999 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with low confidence that:** \n\n> There could continue to be no “GPT-5 level” model (meaning a huge, across the board quantum leap forward as judged by community consensus) throughout 2025. Instead we may see models like o1 that are quite good at many tasks for which high-quality synthetic data can be created, but in other domains only incrementally better than GPT-4." }, { "id": 31290, "title": "Will a large-scale cyberattack in which Generative AI plays an important causal role occur by December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Large GenAI cyberattack will occur in 2025?", "url_title": "Large GenAI cyberattack will occur in 2025?", "slug": "large-genai-cyberattack-will-occur-in-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T19:02:44.041579Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T20:06:39.201828Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.870857Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T20:06:39.201825Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30931, "title": "Will a large-scale cyberattack in which Generative AI plays an important causal role occur by December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T19:02:44.042165Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T20:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-10T20:06:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-10T20:06:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with low confidence that in 2025:** \n\n> We may well see a large-scale cyberattack in which Generative AI plays an important causal role, perhaps in one of the four ways discussed in a short essay of mine that will appear shortly in Politico.", "resolution_criteria": "I will review my 2025 forecasts in 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31290, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743982981.457659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743982981.457659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8099999999999999, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.19 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with low confidence that in 2025:** \n\n> We may well see a large-scale cyberattack in which Generative AI plays an important causal role, perhaps in one of the four ways discussed in a short essay of mine that will appear shortly in Politico." }, { "id": 31289, "title": "Will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive in 2025?", "short_title": "AGI in 2025?", "url_title": "AGI in 2025?", "slug": "agi-in-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T18:59:20.411611Z", "published_at": "2025-01-05T19:41:46.306461Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.104904Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-05T19:41:46.306459Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-05T19:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32625, "name": "Gary Marcus Forecasts", "type": "community", "slug": "marcus", "description": "Follow and forecast along with <a href=\"https://x.com/GaryMarcus?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor \">Gary Marcus</a>'s AI forecasts here.", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30930, "title": "Will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T18:59:20.412247Z", "open_time": "2025-01-05T19:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-10T19:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-10T19:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with high confidence that in 2025:** \n\n> We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary. (People will also continue to [play games to weaken the definition](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly) or even try to [define it in financial rather than scientific terms](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/microsoft-and-openai-wrangle-over-terms-of-their-blockbuster-partnership?utm_campaign=article_email\\&utm_content=article-14220\\&utm_medium=email\\&utm_source=sg).)", "resolution_criteria": "I will review my 2025 forecasts in 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31289, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757929166.42, "end_time": 1762876054.283, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757929166.42, "end_time": 1762876054.283, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.014541604774876883 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.321614550230616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forecast first published in[ <u>25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI</u>](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus)\n\n**I predict with high confidence that in 2025:** \n\n> We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary. (People will also continue to [play games to weaken the definition](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/reports-of-the-birth-of-agi-are-greatly) or even try to [define it in financial rather than scientific terms](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/microsoft-and-openai-wrangle-over-terms-of-their-blockbuster-partnership?utm_campaign=article_email\\&utm_content=article-14220\\&utm_medium=email\\&utm_source=sg).)" }, { "id": 31288, "title": "Bolsonaro será denunciado pela Procuradoria-Geral da República por suposta tentativa de golpe de Estado no primeiro trimestre de 2025?", "short_title": "Bolsonaro será denunciado por golpe de estado em 2025?", "url_title": "Bolsonaro será denunciado por golpe de estado em 2025?", "slug": "bolsonaro-sera-denunciado-por-golpe-de-estado-em-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-03T18:04:21.557596Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T22:36:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.907300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T22:36:22Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-19T00:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-19T00:50:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 146, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32632, "type": "tournament", "name": "Torneio de Previsões do Brasil - 1º Trimestre", "slug": "Brasil", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL_keLMM1n._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "prize_pool": "1500.00", "start_date": "2025-01-22T18:28:39Z", "close_date": "2025-05-02T20:01:37Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-01-13T18:29:24.189802Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-02T14:26:22.883704Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30929, "title": "Bolsonaro será denunciado pela Procuradoria-Geral da República por suposta tentativa de golpe de Estado no primeiro trimestre de 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-03T18:04:21.557945Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-19T00:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-19T00:50:47.505735Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-19T00:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nos últimos anos, o ex-presidente Jair Bolsonaro enfrentou diversas investigações relacionadas ao seu governo, incluindo alegações de ataques às instituições democráticas brasileiras. Após os eventos de 8 de janeiro de 2023, quando manifestantes invadiram e depredaram as sedes dos Três Poderes em Brasília, surgiram questionamentos sobre o possível envolvimento de Bolsonaro na incitação ou apoio indireto a esses atos.\n\nDesde então, a **Procuradoria-Geral da República (PGR)** e outros órgãos judiciais têm investigado figuras públicas e apoiadores envolvidos no episódio. Em 2023, Bolsonaro foi incluído em investigações relacionadas à tentativa de questionar os resultados das eleições de 2022 e à disseminação de desinformação sobre o sistema eleitoral.\n\nEm Novembro de 2024, Bolsonaro foi indiciado pela Polícia Federal junto com outras 36 pessoas, [incluindo quatro ex-ministros](https://oglobo.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/11/21/pf-indicia-quatro-ex-ministros-de-bolsonaro-por-tentativa-de-golpe-de-estado-veja-a-lista.ghtml), pelos crimes de tentativa de golpe de Estado, tentativa de abolição do Estado democrático de direito e organização criminosa.\n\n[O Globo](https://oglobo.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/11/22/bolsonaro-indiciado-pela-pf-entenda-o-inquerito-do-golpe-em-cinco-pontos.ghtml)\n\n[Gazeta do Povo](https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/republica/apos-cerco-em-2024-bolsonaro-deve-enfrentar-etapas-mais-duras-dos-processos-no-stf-em-2025/)", "resolution_criteria": "A pergunta será resolvida como \"Sim\" se a Procuradoria-Geral da República (PGR) apresentar uma denúncia formal contra Jair Bolsonaro ao Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) por suspeitas de participação ou tentativa de golpe de Estado até 31 de março de 2025.\n\n* **Fonte Primária:**\n A resolução será baseada em comunicados oficiais da PGR ou no registro da denúncia no sistema público de processos judiciais do STF (disponível em [https://www.stf.jus.br]()).\n* **Fonte Secundária:**\n Caso os dados da PGR ou do STF não estejam disponíveis, serão considerados relatórios confiáveis publicados por veículos de imprensa de grande circulação, como **G1**, **Folha de S.Paulo**, ou **Estadão**.", "fine_print": "A pergunta será resolvida como \"Sim\" apenas se a Procuradoria-Geral da República (PGR) apresentar uma denúncia formal contra Jair Bolsonaro ao Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) entre 1º de janeiro e 31 de março de 2025, atendendo aos seguintes critérios:\n\n**Definição de Denúncia:**\nUma denúncia formal deve:\na) Ser apresentada pela PGR diretamente ao STF.\nb) Alegar pelo menos uma das seguintes acusações:\n\n* Tentativa de golpe de Estado (Art. 359-M do Código Penal)\n* Tentativa de abolição do Estado Democrático de Direito\n* Organização criminosa relacionada à tentativa de golpe.\n c) Nomear Jair Bolsonaro como um dos réus principais.\n d) Ser uma nova denúncia, não uma emenda a denúncias existentes.\n\n**Verificação Oficial (em ordem de prioridade):**\na) Anúncio no site oficial da PGR.\nb) Registro de processo no STF.\nc) Publicação no Diário Oficial da União.\nd) Caso as opções acima estejam indisponíveis: Dois grandes veículos de mídia confiáveis reportando detalhes específicos do caso.\n\n**Exclusões:**\n\n* Investigações, inquéritos ou pedidos de indiciamento sem denúncia formal não se qualificam.\n* Denúncias apresentadas por outros órgãos, como promotores estaduais, não se qualificam.\n* Procedimentos preliminares ou sigilosos sem confirmação oficial da PGR ou STF não se qualificam.\n\n**Requisitos de Prazo:**\n\n* A denúncia deve ser apresentada entre 1º de janeiro e 31 de março de 2025.\n* Deve ser publicamente verificável até 15 de abril de 2025.", "post_id": 31288, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739924944.988133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 145, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.061 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739924944.988133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 145, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.061 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.3195425060813786 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.4913045302603916, 0.08629949503652228, 1.121463407222776, 1.0785002270023245, 0.0, 0.4337143415052221, 0.5890728963267812, 0.9200439524381683, 0.8888723507343589, 1.6532329697344421, 1.1950593566533994, 0.06957555725416287, 0.1298650853499532, 0.501125578027838, 1.015400993879711, 0.21791576372976437, 0.0, 0.03813471749566073, 0.004827673297657741, 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"Nos últimos anos, o ex-presidente Jair Bolsonaro enfrentou diversas investigações relacionadas ao seu governo, incluindo alegações de ataques às instituições democráticas brasileiras. Após os eventos de 8 de janeiro de 2023, quando manifestantes invadiram e depredaram as sedes dos Três Poderes em Brasília, surgiram questionamentos sobre o possível envolvimento de Bolsonaro na incitação ou apoio indireto a esses atos.\n\nDesde então, a **Procuradoria-Geral da República (PGR)** e outros órgãos judiciais têm investigado figuras públicas e apoiadores envolvidos no episódio. Em 2023, Bolsonaro foi incluído em investigações relacionadas à tentativa de questionar os resultados das eleições de 2022 e à disseminação de desinformação sobre o sistema eleitoral.\n\nEm Novembro de 2024, Bolsonaro foi indiciado pela Polícia Federal junto com outras 36 pessoas, [incluindo quatro ex-ministros](https://oglobo.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/11/21/pf-indicia-quatro-ex-ministros-de-bolsonaro-por-tentativa-de-golpe-de-estado-veja-a-lista.ghtml), pelos crimes de tentativa de golpe de Estado, tentativa de abolição do Estado democrático de direito e organização criminosa.\n\n[O Globo](https://oglobo.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/11/22/bolsonaro-indiciado-pela-pf-entenda-o-inquerito-do-golpe-em-cinco-pontos.ghtml)\n\n[Gazeta do Povo](https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/republica/apos-cerco-em-2024-bolsonaro-deve-enfrentar-etapas-mais-duras-dos-processos-no-stf-em-2025/)" }, { "id": 31277, "title": "Will Maersk resume shipping in the Red Sea in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Maersk resume shipping in the Red Sea in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Maersk resume shipping in the Red Sea in 2025?", "slug": "will-maersk-resume-shipping-in-the-red-sea-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-02T17:37:54.991933Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:41:54.266131Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T21:05:03.139348Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:41:54.266128Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1124, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30920, "title": "Will Maersk resume shipping in the Red Sea in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-02T17:37:54.992289Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the [2023 Israeli invasion of Gaza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip), the [Houthis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement) started attacking vessels going through the Red Sea, particularly those crossing [Bab el Mandeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bab-el-Mandeb), in support of Hamas. Until March 2024, the Houthis [had attacked](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis) more than 60 vessels, leading to a significant reduction in trading volume going through the Red Sea. Despite military operations from both [the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Prosperity_Guardian) and [the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Aspides), trading volumes have remained low. Specifically, Maersk [paused shipping indefinitely](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/maersk-pauses-shipping-operations-red-sea-indefinitely-weekend-houthi-attack) in January 2024, with its CEO saying that they don't expect to resume until [well into 2025](https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/maersk-not-expecting-to-resume-suez-route-this-year-g0mmr98nn).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Maersk announces or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that shipping through the Red Sea has resumed before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "* An announcement of a partial resumption of Red Sea activity will resolve this question as **Yes**. Reports of Maersk ships traveling the Red Sea will also resolve the question as **Yes** if, in the judgment of Metaculus, the event represents a change to official Maersk policy, allowing its ships to travel through the Red Sea.\n* Reports that this will happen at some point in the future will only resolve this question as **Yes** if that point is within the calendar year 2025 *and* that date is reached without a significant change in plans.", "post_id": 31277, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757883889.349355, "end_time": 1758326972.853, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757883889.349355, "end_time": 1758326972.853, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.33180070406888484 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.021425827431161795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4730339467453206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3995446970621391, 0.0007884637982581074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.286604896751842, 0.0, 0.5067124970546018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.700766702684165, 0.0, 1.4455419479509708, 0.0, 1.0238974777210552, 1.2701388278505807, 0.6425485385253425, 0.13911380284193411, 0.9705978640565714, 0.0, 2.6033938056552755, 0.38521852544831114, 0.5145313490022776, 1.9037847499857299, 0.46295970316086416, 1.209917260857286, 0.033611008041554945, 1.4439079715116958, 0.6045848520669869, 0.26603512872346485, 2.2705005985094266, 0.5201402396828849, 0.00010605918577829482, 0.0, 0.013360173147577935, 0.04241854314941057, 0.31457580880011504, 0.08648265182936413, 0.12823341436831906, 0.0006606540468160251, 1.0589288126546195, 0.0, 0.18877155505521334, 0.553470810570838, 0.0, 0.32468263756639937, 0.05509552657285789, 0.0472605099796881, 0.0, 0.0009609452808098495, 0.5067572505360488, 0.00013143430596114237, 0.13275915919655065, 0.03054216418197483, 0.03666635674486991, 0.07916479849955939, 3.2764866978926535e-06, 0.0002108581689959999, 0.026943142884697065, 0.13812058132151778, 0.010524822290512693, 0.0, 0.11461772526527343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18684335703791752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00401264257204469, 0.0, 0.020169674798577057, 1.823914985993217e-06, 0.0, 0.005846536421243268, 0.0, 0.011922473581451088, 0.03967696099459011, 0.0, 0.08172599223139038, 0.0, 0.07523458404457514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10026778396287978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24387427435298098 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 38, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1950, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the [2023 Israeli invasion of Gaza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip), the [Houthis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement) started attacking vessels going through the Red Sea, particularly those crossing [Bab el Mandeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bab-el-Mandeb), in support of Hamas. Until March 2024, the Houthis [had attacked](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis) more than 60 vessels, leading to a significant reduction in trading volume going through the Red Sea. Despite military operations from both [the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Prosperity_Guardian) and [the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Aspides), trading volumes have remained low. Specifically, Maersk [paused shipping indefinitely](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/maersk-pauses-shipping-operations-red-sea-indefinitely-weekend-houthi-attack) in January 2024, with its CEO saying that they don't expect to resume until [well into 2025](https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/maersk-not-expecting-to-resume-suez-route-this-year-g0mmr98nn)." }, { "id": 31276, "title": "Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?", "short_title": "Argentine poverty lower in early 2025 vs late 2023?", "url_title": "Argentine poverty lower in early 2025 vs late 2023?", "slug": "argentine-poverty-lower-in-early-2025-vs-late-2023", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-02T15:35:52.554259Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:41:40.664018Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.186143Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:41:40.664015Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1048, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30919, "title": "Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?", "created_at": "2025-01-02T15:35:52.554597Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei) won the Argentine elections in December 2023, inheriting a country with severe economic challenges, including an annual inflation rate exceeding 140% and a poverty rate affecting over 40% of the population. He campaigned on radical reforms, including the dollarization of the economy and dramatic reductions in government spending. While [inflation has decreased](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi) during his term, [poverty increased](https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/eph_pobreza_09_241C2355AD3A.pdf) in the first half of 2024 by 11.2 percentage points to 52.9%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, according to [the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC)](https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Nivel3-Tema-4-46), the percentage of the population living below the poverty line in Argentina (*Población bajo la línea de pobreza*) in the first half of 2025 is less than 41.7%. If the percentage is greater than or equal to 41.7%, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Data for 2022 to 2024 can be found [here](https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/eph_pobreza_09_241C2355AD3A.pdf), on page 5/28, under the table \"*Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos*\", section \"*Pobreza*\", row \"*Personas*\".\n* Data for the first half of 2025 are expected to be released around September 2025.\n* If INDEC ceases to report these data, Metaculus might use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to resolve this question, as long as they are roughly consistent with previous INDEC estimates.", "post_id": 31276, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757745553.813, "end_time": 1758247557.458, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.84 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757745553.813, "end_time": 1758247557.458, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.84 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.16000000000000003, 0.84 ], "means": [ 0.8033307313253261 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0009984984337256281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014748077377491895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24780461616052613, 0.0, 1.2170473762483146e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007944643498418176, 0.011329094917396797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008820195132174453, 0.0, 0.0, 8.324713166747275e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002534113923212864, 0.0, 0.0010616365923327177, 0.9672518445751787, 1.615475089690783e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.785044109357359e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11083849657901707, 2.7299804857822246e-05, 0.23943468137595147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12596785368521227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1662950023221768, 0.0, 0.0, 5.006020581350143e-06, 0.0, 0.4393592041878939, 0.023301787135927246, 0.5161970317910338, 0.0005568683470828124, 0.07201010213045747, 0.3874792336600902, 0.0, 0.053382984570062436, 0.0018099783405941148, 0.0014329571911999657, 2.907097425254294, 0.1851572532937304, 0.07293021795832566, 1.7756361165576662, 0.061692311806337295, 2.028061798158053, 0.05680139376165157, 1.559867849070486, 0.5784668466417017, 1.2490663548604546, 4.062574650685381, 0.8225047538514783, 1.0632383830117593, 1.9887407530808192, 0.07019653562616793, 1.1356837081260742, 0.542758246447004, 0.7649580633205064, 0.07551705302246997, 0.7143673724868403, 0.5175376205792658, 0.4347624468632377, 0.15843823912797395, 0.0, 1.3505078142641869 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1941, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei) won the Argentine elections in December 2023, inheriting a country with severe economic challenges, including an annual inflation rate exceeding 140% and a poverty rate affecting over 40% of the population. He campaigned on radical reforms, including the dollarization of the economy and dramatic reductions in government spending. While [inflation has decreased](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi) during his term, [poverty increased](https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/eph_pobreza_09_241C2355AD3A.pdf) in the first half of 2024 by 11.2 percentage points to 52.9%." }, { "id": 31275, "title": "Will the Manifold market \"Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?\" be higher than 68% or lower than 28% for the majority of the final week of 2025?", "short_title": "Substantial change in COVID origin market in 2025?", "url_title": "Substantial change in COVID origin market in 2025?", "slug": "substantial-change-in-covid-origin-market-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-02T14:31:22.417101Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:40:40.048879Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.911596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:40:40.048876Z", "comment_count": 40, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-04T17:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-04T17:56:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 847, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30918, "title": "Will the Manifold market \"Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?\" be higher than 68% or lower than 28% for the majority of the final week of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-02T14:31:22.417471Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-04T17:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-04T18:54:52.963898Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-04T17:56:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The origins of COVID are still debated as of January 2025. The [most prominent theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Origin_of_SARS-CoV-2) focuses on zoonotic origins, with the a leak for the Wuhan Institute of Virology not being ruled out. While early investigations focused on the Huanan Seafood Market as a possible source of natural spillover, later studies and intelligence reports have highlighted safety concerns at the Wuhan lab, which was conducting coronavirus research. A report by Office of the Director of National Intelligence, declassified in 2023 [showed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66005240) the US intelligence community being split, with 4 agencies believing a zoonotic origin was more plausible and 2 supporting a lab leak. Five years after the origin of the virus, China [has still not released](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/31/china/who-china-covid-origin-data-five-years-intl-hnk/index.html) data about its origin.\n\nManifold has [hosted a market](https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory) on the origins of COVID since September 2022, which as of January 2, 2025 is the most liquid market on the platform with a total volume of 3.4m mana. The market exceeded a probability of 80% for the lab leak hypothesis early in its lifetime and in mid 2023, but has been gradually falling since then. In early 2024, [Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) hosted a debate on the origins of COVID, [which it lost](https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaims-covid-19-origins-debate-results/) to Peter Miller who was supporting the zoonotic origins theory (a summary can be found [here](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim)) leading to a significant drop in the market.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [this Manifold market on the COVID origins](https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory) is either below 28% or above 68% for the majority of the final week of 2025.", "fine_print": "* The week in question is December 25, 2025 to December 31, 2025, inclusive. The time zone is UTC.\n* Metaculus will resolve this question by looking at the market graph for the specific week. In case of ambiguity, this question might be resolved by downloading the relevant data from the API or by contacting Manifold.\n* The market has to spend the majority of the week below 28% or the majority of the week above 68%. The time spent outside the two thresholds will not be added together.\n* If there are signs of market manipulation, according to the judgement of Metaculus, this question might be resolved as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 31275, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738691445.342617, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 830, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738691445.342617, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 830, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.38654770242320063 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.002923925640477, 0.00403430671340965, 0.028131603538754636, 0.745271885412585, 0.08434750203934295, 1.1348926912547852, 0.0, 0.6180447968697057, 0.004769839592799178, 0.11037342878566864, 1.212615301697221, 0.18632440211222684, 0.015692324928548634, 0.6989372878311015, 0.25907082567888257, 1.9300712406665408, 0.4555701239792871, 0.9688507288400684, 0.9300161990496265, 0.15064569033961245, 4.921719792589132, 1.7243643134245188, 0.6546194175954131, 0.009501736742147776, 0.004816057131571048, 2.804358358235523, 0.9390382083390146, 1.021521321671751, 1.8155578936761072, 0.0, 4.954484483944793, 0.04008687175237523, 0.019688219155731778, 0.8433550092883644, 0.27051064528621976, 1.4690031720299488, 0.17139056227642124, 0.06685637755103464, 0.14645355119728526, 0.1326732811446958, 2.013529162149031, 1.033275476313791, 0.0, 0.0022983778552000053, 0.08147182642358959, 0.32078314348670967, 0.04860036525897423, 0.05162163260856844, 0.19054577936820935, 0.5052464996215288, 2.4869667891825618, 0.17643875533511066, 1.596868073247603e-06, 0.0, 0.014504314430442438, 2.3729948044930955, 0.2744972909138065, 0.04965080002447714, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2150089253269365, 0.34251540191360175, 0.910499249471888, 0.0016219780897754293, 2.1425551588719596e-07, 0.4897995617093488, 0.36237958047001884, 0.0, 0.1171475765411672, 0.006919353642972216, 0.5632183197668216, 0.6606618578633011, 0.7905553010234159, 1.990746397556488e-09, 0.7192558624732404, 1.1827220707724313, 0.004918573143101282, 0.23457483955326622, 0.16405450032833807, 9.994290841450118e-07, 0.5377633563396182, 0.0005848177214700706, 0.05770168920688534, 1.7089880957301755e-05, 0.34001493845137976, 0.20197977385409155, 0.0002644712740026889, 0.005353159473053562, 0.5803899209775857, 0.04528001922981057, 0.28674242976893405, 0.0031281535375512525, 0.0, 0.0005648267143788854, 0.2322056402755037, 1.1574628796129836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7325701017160515 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -83, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The origins of COVID are still debated as of January 2025. The [most prominent theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Origin_of_SARS-CoV-2) focuses on zoonotic origins, with the a leak for the Wuhan Institute of Virology not being ruled out. While early investigations focused on the Huanan Seafood Market as a possible source of natural spillover, later studies and intelligence reports have highlighted safety concerns at the Wuhan lab, which was conducting coronavirus research. A report by Office of the Director of National Intelligence, declassified in 2023 [showed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66005240) the US intelligence community being split, with 4 agencies believing a zoonotic origin was more plausible and 2 supporting a lab leak. Five years after the origin of the virus, China [has still not released](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/31/china/who-china-covid-origin-data-five-years-intl-hnk/index.html) data about its origin.\n\nManifold has [hosted a market](https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory) on the origins of COVID since September 2022, which as of January 2, 2025 is the most liquid market on the platform with a total volume of 3.4m mana. The market exceeded a probability of 80% for the lab leak hypothesis early in its lifetime and in mid 2023, but has been gradually falling since then. In early 2024, [Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) hosted a debate on the origins of COVID, [which it lost](https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaims-covid-19-origins-debate-results/) to Peter Miller who was supporting the zoonotic origins theory (a summary can be found [here](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim)) leading to a significant drop in the market." }, { "id": 31273, "title": "Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?", "short_title": "Will a new war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?", "url_title": "Will a new war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?", "slug": "will-a-new-war-kill-at-least-5000-people-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-02T13:40:25.045903Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:02:58.738464Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:45:32.500673Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:02:58.738461Z", "comment_count": 75, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30917, "title": "Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-02T13:40:25.046258Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The early 2020s saw an increase in armed conflicts around the world. The [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://ucdp.uu.se/) reports (visualized by OWID [here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-in-armed-conflicts-by-type)) that each of 2021, 2022, and 2023 surpassed every year since 1989 in armed conflict deaths, with the exception of the [1994 Rwandan genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), either a new armed conflict or a substantial escalation of a previous conflict has resulted in at least 5,000 deaths within the calendar year 2025.", "fine_print": "* For a conflict to count it must have had fewer than 1,000 deaths in each of the calendar years 2023 and 2024.\n* At least 5,000 deaths have to happen within 2025. If credible sources disagree about the number of deaths, Metaculus will use its best estimate based on the available information and might resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n* Civil wars or conflicts between state armed forces and other armed groups (e.g., the [Mexican drug war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_drug_war)) will count. Terrorist attacks will not - at least one party in the conflict must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\n* A conflict that has been overtly joined by at least one new state (including state military or militants from a new state) and takes place at a primarily different frontline will count as a separate conflict, even if a new state explicitly takes a side in an existing conflict. This includes states that have joined a conflict prior to 2025, as well as any that join during 2025. If the frontlines are primarily the same, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the new state suffers at least 5,000 deaths in the conflict, when it had not suffered 1,000 deaths in the conflict previously. \"Overtly joined\" means that combatants from the country are clearly identifiable and, if they are members of the country's military, are acknowledged by that country to be involved in the conflict.\n* In cases where the reporting is ambiguous or the situation is complex, Metaculus may make a determination, and might resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n* In cases of ambiguity in the reporting of deaths, Metaculus might wait until January 31, 2026 to resolve this question. ", "post_id": 31273, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757889161.310246, "end_time": 1758241951.153, "forecaster_count": 295, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757889161.310246, "end_time": 1758241951.153, "forecaster_count": 295, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.28246760700523427 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6829507227628986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025167559529933704, 1.176824912554141, 0.6235845305285398, 0.8672622378837209, 0.36056983790044694, 0.0, 2.421285532264882, 0.0, 0.895697230925609, 0.0, 0.0, 1.401301917628404, 0.6425820424886822, 0.30554644089415806, 0.2982501757698013, 0.0009326085458800444, 2.7075333661394247, 0.14789887513921204, 0.7979175853523104, 0.19872751783865067, 0.8360111491349347, 4.537614484577625, 0.558826963297203, 2.5753766472355477, 0.2759690116913205, 0.0, 1.5945783118835366, 0.39864256915597585, 0.5206071381096083, 0.15376663250121145, 0.055700513637021734, 1.3604045426312088, 0.0, 0.003332588192275353, 0.2810172049039762, 0.06452025403452077, 1.1137568980522299, 0.0, 0.07070609639231619, 0.15972241803446807, 0.02244974828608118, 0.002785776661315656, 0.0, 0.0002814476664335822, 2.266194801560928e-05, 0.0, 0.8673125529572541, 0.0783299536766791, 0.00023786597551675733, 0.02005925018229271, 0.16311944720935717, 0.03825047015855296, 0.6058121415232558, 3.808979965307254e-05, 0.0, 0.045449072788760286, 0.06092955021197182, 0.006670643301383866, 0.5732791469277777, 4.659583219270517e-06, 1.0853733988472092e-05, 0.033878073702684294, 0.0, 5.8764846729096e-07, 0.0015057174471723533, 0.0, 0.9021082560677032, 0.0018129796964934336, 0.00014069161726554494, 0.0, 0.034899280144016914, 0.021597775204974204, 0.0, 1.2884516301564968e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001575437545372347, 0.005893121483095791, 0.23989635830784303, 0.0, 0.00113257758876351, 0.09812848419224177, 0.03828190938082295, 0.0, 0.0007650540773286094, 0.0, 0.0002661921537867172, 0.0, 0.005712193154435339, 0.0015777448801241475, 0.0, 0.09864427817691969, 0.0, 0.0, 8.031153127421082e-05, 0.7909301416336019 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 82, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4062, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The early 2020s saw an increase in armed conflicts around the world. The [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://ucdp.uu.se/) reports (visualized by OWID [here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-in-armed-conflicts-by-type)) that each of 2021, 2022, and 2023 surpassed every year since 1989 in armed conflict deaths, with the exception of the [1994 Rwandan genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide)." }, { "id": 31271, "title": "Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?", "short_title": "US housing prices increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?", "url_title": "US housing prices increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?", "slug": "us-housing-prices-increase-more-in-2025-compared-to-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-02T12:25:01.788151Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:02:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T05:18:00.692010Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:02:34Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1159, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30916, "title": "Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?", "created_at": "2025-01-02T12:25:01.788645Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States housing market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past few decades. After recovering from the 2008 financial crisis, which was largely triggered by the subprime mortgage collapse, housing prices saw steady appreciation throughout the 2010s. This trend accelerated dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by historically low interest rates, limited housing inventory, and changing work patterns. Nominal house prices fell slightly at the end of 2022, but have been rising since.\n\nAccording to Zillow, the [Zillow Home Value Index](https://www.zillow.com/research/methodology-neural-zhvi-32128/)\n\n> is designed to capture the value of a typical property across the nation or the neighborhood, not just the homes that sold, and we do so by drawing information from the full distribution of homes in a given region.\n> \n> ZHVI measures monthly changes in property-level Zestimates, capturing both the level and appreciation of home values across a wide variety of geographies and housing types (e.g., all single-family homes in ZIP code 98101). This is how we focus on actual market price changes, and not changes in the kinds of markets or property types that sell from month to month.\n\nCheck the link for some details on their methodology.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the [Zillow Home Values Index](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) (ZHVI) and specifically the \"ZHVI All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op) Time Series, Smoothed, Seasonally Adjusted(\\$)\" data type for \"Metro & U.S.\". It will resolve as **Yes** if the relative change of the ZHVI for the United States from November 2024 to November 2025 is greater than the relative change from November 2023 to November 2024, when adjusted for inflation.", "fine_print": "For example, the same question for 2024 vs 2023 would have resolved as **Yes** because\n\n1. The ZHVI for November 2022 was \\$339,428, for November 2023 it was \\$347,035, and for November 2024 it was \\$355,876.\n2. Adjusted for inflation using the [BLS CPI Inflation Calculator](https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm), we get the prices \\$359,702 (Nov 2022) and \\$356,576 (Nov 2023) in Nov 2024 USD.\n3. The ratio Nov2024 / Nov2023 is \\$355,876 / \\$356,576 = 0.998, greater than the ratio Nov2023 / Nov2022 which is \\$356,576 / \\$359,702 = 0.9913.\n\n***\n\n* If Zillow stops reporting the ZHVI or if the ZHVI substantially changes its methodology, this question will be **annulled**.\n* If the BLS CPI Inflation Calculator is not available, another month-level US CPI inflation calculator may be used.\n* The latest numbers for the ZHVI as of December 2025 will be used to resolve this question, including any revisions to the 2023 or 2024 estimates.", "post_id": 31271, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757913469.995724, "end_time": 1758293511.814, "forecaster_count": 223, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757913469.995724, "end_time": 1758293511.814, "forecaster_count": 223, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5700000000000001, 0.43 ], "means": [ 0.42476302304791586 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.012089845907056654, 0.7375320863935301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5999077286280537, 0.23899874416752087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2292904439609394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04316965406589135, 0.00047458271546583076, 0.0, 0.15141486557786782, 0.0, 0.877080918426946, 0.0011734211334492076, 0.17512092130390502, 0.4658542217404918, 0.0, 0.273897090274654, 0.05105132498955872, 0.0, 0.4997609407779783, 1.3893785840334796, 0.4953000627270386, 0.07175368255740812, 0.1392195457243858, 0.2492590181419113, 0.5579081379241406, 0.0019984435308343968, 0.31691359428143917, 0.0, 4.3537900647984555, 0.013527390672728316, 2.0267602221792247, 0.9891677594443229, 0.763588702117349, 0.595989074940432, 0.7194492758605028, 0.29478845081006416, 1.6435726571575429, 0.008388662749859471, 4.582520782453339, 0.2935062834029014, 0.822436112915447, 0.0, 0.012060571743726753, 0.19651784145266837, 0.11448668150258622, 0.26837518782648845, 0.0, 0.2544821566568273, 1.1913246895780225, 0.00019690089807260228, 0.022423274992485885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21593668360477844, 0.0022396769175817553, 0.14532066642439417, 0.09671218051751697, 0.0, 0.24628257739969564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.275913770269241e-05, 0.01422127130399735, 0.09220677496933233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023490906133471906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11920196397308126, 0.0, 0.005044111467600739, 0.26453249120142525, 0.0, 0.05322726451295624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34481968703418403 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 34, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1948, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States housing market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past few decades. After recovering from the 2008 financial crisis, which was largely triggered by the subprime mortgage collapse, housing prices saw steady appreciation throughout the 2010s. This trend accelerated dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by historically low interest rates, limited housing inventory, and changing work patterns. Nominal house prices fell slightly at the end of 2022, but have been rising since.\n\nAccording to Zillow, the [Zillow Home Value Index](https://www.zillow.com/research/methodology-neural-zhvi-32128/)\n\n> is designed to capture the value of a typical property across the nation or the neighborhood, not just the homes that sold, and we do so by drawing information from the full distribution of homes in a given region.\n> \n> ZHVI measures monthly changes in property-level Zestimates, capturing both the level and appreciation of home values across a wide variety of geographies and housing types (e.g., all single-family homes in ZIP code 98101). This is how we focus on actual market price changes, and not changes in the kinds of markets or property types that sell from month to month.\n\nCheck the link for some details on their methodology." }, { "id": 31258, "title": "Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?", "short_title": "Google's Search Market Share Below 85% in 2025?", "url_title": "Google's Search Market Share Below 85% in 2025?", "slug": "googles-search-market-share-below-85-in-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-31T17:01:17.223776Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:42:47.549130Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T19:04:11.168126Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:42:47.549127Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1372, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30909, "title": "Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-31T17:01:17.224184Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the past year artificial intelligence [has emerged](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/31/openai-launches-chatgpt-search-competing-with-google-and-perplexity.html) as a potential competitor to traditional web search. AI tools such as ChatGPT and [Perplexity](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/is-perplexity-ai-really-a-threat-to-google-search/ar-AA1oFv0L?apiversion=v2\\&noservercache=1\\&domshim=1\\&renderwebcomponents=1\\&wcseo=1\\&batchservertelemetry=1\\&noservertelemetry=1) offer web searching capabilities, and traditional search engines like Google and Bing have integrated AI features into their search. This increase in AI search ability has raised speculation that traditional search like Google could face a decline in market share.\n\nOne challenge in assessing the prevalence of new AI search is in actually measuring market share. One such market share assessment, [published by Statcounter](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share), states the following about AI tools like Bing chat in [its FAQ](https://gs.statcounter.com/faq#bing-chat):\n\n> We have no way of measuring the number of queries performed in bing chat. However, we also don't measure the number of queries to regular search engines like bing or google either. Instead we track [search engine referrals](https://gs.statcounter.com/faq#search-engine-referrals).\n> \n> i.e. If you go to a search engine and do a search for anything and you click on a website result, we'll record that click as a [search engine referral](https://gs.statcounter.com/faq#search-engine-referrals) if that website had the statcounter code installed. It's the click to a website that we measure, not the actual search queries that were performed.\n> \n> When you do a search using bing chat, and you click on one of the \"learn more\" websites we can track that as a search referral. So we are monitoring bing chat in the same way we measure the regular bing search engine.\n> \n> From this data we can see from the statcounter network of webites, that the amount of traffic being sent to websites from bing chat is very, very small. Less than 1/100 of 1 percent.\n> \n> So from our data we can say that bing chat is not currently translating into enough clicks to our network of websites to change the search share.\n> \n> Of course you are less likely to click on a source website from bing chat than a regular search, as it is intended to give you the answer rather than have you go visiting websites to find the answer. So that needs to be factored in when using our stats for your analysis.\n\nThe fact that some of the most comprehensive measures available are measuring where traffic to sites is originating, while AI advances are producing tools that encapsulate answers without needing to visit other websites, presents a challenge in interpreting market share figures.\n\nAs of December 2024, Statcounter [reported](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) that Google had a search market share of 89.7%, down from 91.6% in December of 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Google's market share for any month during calendar year 2025 is below 85%, according to [Statcounter](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share).", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve as **Yes** when data for any single month is published and satisfies the criteria, or as **No** once data for all months in 2025 have been published if none satisfy the criteria.\n* The data used will have the following options selected when clicking \"Edit Chart Data\", using the options shown below which were available as of December 31, 2024, or equivalent options if these options change:\n * \"Statistic\": \"Search Engine\", with \"Desktop\", \"Mobile\", \"Tablet\", and \"Console\" all selected\n * \"Region\": \"Worldwide\"\n * \"Period\": \"Monthly\"\n* If the Statcounter data is unavailable, or Google is not listed, and the required data remains unavailable through March 1, 2026, this question resolves as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 31258, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757870746.933548, "end_time": 1758242371.098, "forecaster_count": 258, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757870746.933548, "end_time": 1758242371.098, "forecaster_count": 258, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.049957688380032325 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.855024676359561, 4.323622482567718, 2.821780901078595, 4.44583099235877, 5.804756079311009, 4.448711347340798, 0.18372847298685485, 0.02056822924219178, 1.2452711421863731, 0.24014268978745054, 1.4930089946089737, 0.0004973974710347792, 0.3142409152772505, 0.003286787977180262, 0.045055145908519764, 1.0390118174641838, 0.005423431417185708, 0.0, 0.2910454991256852, 0.6132247666721503, 0.17186858596335292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020068657869925458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0056768883603320825, 0.02390780275381446, 0.0, 9.892582404587832e-07, 0.0, 0.039149684887540386, 0.001798531586018698, 0.0006840948250633283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.891067062806632e-06, 0.029234249818685283, 0.0, 5.1666564714934706e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020504781960696395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06106116313617913, 0.0, 0.005518783005552658, 7.448298261790716e-05, 0.056615501910054454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006624254862490963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4183958448737991e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020021761750949663, 0.0, 0.008605052953486372 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2308, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the past year artificial intelligence [has emerged](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/31/openai-launches-chatgpt-search-competing-with-google-and-perplexity.html) as a potential competitor to traditional web search. AI tools such as ChatGPT and [Perplexity](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/is-perplexity-ai-really-a-threat-to-google-search/ar-AA1oFv0L?apiversion=v2\\&noservercache=1\\&domshim=1\\&renderwebcomponents=1\\&wcseo=1\\&batchservertelemetry=1\\&noservertelemetry=1) offer web searching capabilities, and traditional search engines like Google and Bing have integrated AI features into their search. This increase in AI search ability has raised speculation that traditional search like Google could face a decline in market share.\n\nOne challenge in assessing the prevalence of new AI search is in actually measuring market share. One such market share assessment, [published by Statcounter](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share), states the following about AI tools like Bing chat in [its FAQ](https://gs.statcounter.com/faq#bing-chat):\n\n> We have no way of measuring the number of queries performed in bing chat. However, we also don't measure the number of queries to regular search engines like bing or google either. Instead we track [search engine referrals](https://gs.statcounter.com/faq#search-engine-referrals).\n> \n> i.e. If you go to a search engine and do a search for anything and you click on a website result, we'll record that click as a [search engine referral](https://gs.statcounter.com/faq#search-engine-referrals) if that website had the statcounter code installed. It's the click to a website that we measure, not the actual search queries that were performed.\n> \n> When you do a search using bing chat, and you click on one of the \"learn more\" websites we can track that as a search referral. So we are monitoring bing chat in the same way we measure the regular bing search engine.\n> \n> From this data we can see from the statcounter network of webites, that the amount of traffic being sent to websites from bing chat is very, very small. Less than 1/100 of 1 percent.\n> \n> So from our data we can say that bing chat is not currently translating into enough clicks to our network of websites to change the search share.\n> \n> Of course you are less likely to click on a source website from bing chat than a regular search, as it is intended to give you the answer rather than have you go visiting websites to find the answer. So that needs to be factored in when using our stats for your analysis.\n\nThe fact that some of the most comprehensive measures available are measuring where traffic to sites is originating, while AI advances are producing tools that encapsulate answers without needing to visit other websites, presents a challenge in interpreting market share figures.\n\nAs of December 2024, Statcounter [reported](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) that Google had a search market share of 89.7%, down from 91.6% in December of 2023." }, { "id": 31257, "title": "Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?", "short_title": "Semaglutide taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?", "url_title": "Semaglutide taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?", "slug": "semaglutide-taken-off-fdas-drug-shortage-list-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-31T16:36:09.612718Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:01:48.693133Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.061771Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:01:48.693131Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-21T02:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-21T02:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 857, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30908, "title": "Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-31T16:36:09.613080Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-21T02:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-04T02:22:00.717645Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-21T02:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Semaglutide is a medication that was originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes under the brand name Ozempic. It belongs to a class of drugs called GLP-1 receptor agonists, which work by mimicking a natural hormone that regulates blood sugar and appetite. In 2021, a phase III trial showed that it can also be effective against weight loss, with the mean weight loss after 15 months of treatment being 15%. Since then its use has significantly increased, with [a KFF poll from May 2025](https://www.kff.org/health-costs/poll-finding/kff-health-tracking-poll-may-2024-the-publics-use-and-views-of-glp-1-drugs/) showing that 1 in 8 US adults have taken a GLP-1 agonist in their life.\n\nOn August 23, 2022, semaglutide [entered](https://dps.fda.gov/drugshortages/activeingredient/semaglutide-injection) the FDA's drug shortage list, as Novo Nordisk couldn't meet the increased demand for the drug. As of December 2024, the drug remains on the list.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point after January 10, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, semaglutide is not listed as \"Currently in Shortage\" on the [FDA's drug shortage list](https://dps.fda.gov/drugshortages/activeingredient/semaglutide-injection). Otherwise if it remains on the FDA's drug shortage list, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "FDA changing its terminology from \"Currently in Shortage\" to a substantially equivalent term (i.e., anything conveying that the shortage has not been resolved) will not resolve this question as **Yes**. In cases of ambiguity, a panel of Admins may make a determination.", "post_id": 31257, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741052901.606236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 848, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.491 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741052901.606236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 848, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.491 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6451230197636305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8189063173378822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8201988929587718e-09, 0.00010940657632511501, 0.017264709729147645, 0.0, 2.040632602333988e-09, 0.534488824896161, 0.20430467490784354, 0.0, 0.03433356929637063, 0.005819230514206846, 0.10403825190775715, 0.06467649997745074, 0.02094637654648522, 0.04600977328936406, 2.9657247735656246e-05, 0.9157139371814849, 0.44895834092826453, 0.2494510083701004, 0.09420676964306066, 0.18359743615888938, 0.9901085296283287, 0.0002643869905243432, 0.019427624596787228, 0.2505709334893339, 0.0, 2.0047224159794093, 0.04455066368262281, 0.8012458557285653, 0.4178056241498689, 0.0620747476173352, 0.0015501240426200745, 0.057057455584185714, 0.35240965526683354, 0.013382840965732522, 0.8046130342527071, 1.7962243819636914, 0.24387010684226074, 0.8654002831023881, 0.12185386173362074, 0.09073073113627922, 0.7830379614518312, 0.0020978326215731606, 0.18281077402456797, 0.0, 0.8449521277918862, 1.6987633302968377, 1.248350959732221, 0.025708645704115154, 4.477348820793472e-05, 0.7090585084205968, 2.576509861244307, 0.6673565327776447, 0.35391575435772804, 0.0, 0.0006818578456129799, 1.018992824706013, 0.2612015713072727, 1.615785172820087, 0.03438573989960162, 0.42804821412151156, 4.021979673160596, 1.7036749248823198, 2.024806008299798, 0.6167342250598843, 0.00965735211565729, 1.642273217472169, 1.0161777656684834, 0.0345926149211367, 0.007477834351609873, 0.0, 2.0683459100219452, 0.04844718115342935, 0.2093782791019328, 0.8378498761807943, 4.4854454618008665e-05, 1.1906330219702745, 0.02352777933935822, 0.1390967964345633, 0.002199259872506943, 0.009575975300035585, 2.2328341910925658, 0.14970119943548074, 0.0, 0.6719661212289175, 0.0, 1.2860477211688455, 0.00028355272624816524, 9.60221322631183e-07, 1.0590396390696367e-06, 0.009406060759308364, 1.8764121404965408, 0.8564652245875285, 0.6266657382562912, 0.8418074420521343, 7.451825497561241 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -0.06002927578645037, "peer_score": 1.8848848277783836, "coverage": 0.11605898291434745, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9974012962783669, "spot_peer_score": 21.583397871232304, "spot_baseline_score": 2.856915219677092, "baseline_archived_score": -0.06002927578645037, "peer_archived_score": 1.8848848277783836, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.583397871232304, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 2.856915219677092 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Semaglutide is a medication that was originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes under the brand name Ozempic. It belongs to a class of drugs called GLP-1 receptor agonists, which work by mimicking a natural hormone that regulates blood sugar and appetite. In 2021, a phase III trial showed that it can also be effective against weight loss, with the mean weight loss after 15 months of treatment being 15%. Since then its use has significantly increased, with [a KFF poll from May 2025](https://www.kff.org/health-costs/poll-finding/kff-health-tracking-poll-may-2024-the-publics-use-and-views-of-glp-1-drugs/) showing that 1 in 8 US adults have taken a GLP-1 agonist in their life.\n\nOn August 23, 2022, semaglutide [entered](https://dps.fda.gov/drugshortages/activeingredient/semaglutide-injection) the FDA's drug shortage list, as Novo Nordisk couldn't meet the increased demand for the drug. As of December 2024, the drug remains on the list." }, { "id": 31256, "title": "Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?", "short_title": "Rationalist, EA, or AI safety researcher on Rogan in 2025?", "url_title": "Rationalist, EA, or AI safety researcher on Rogan in 2025?", "slug": "rationalist-ea-or-ai-safety-researcher-on-rogan-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-31T15:47:31.502415Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:01:14.481189Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.662744Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:01:14.481187Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-25T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1323, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30907, "title": "Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-31T15:47:31.502774Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-25T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-12T12:07:29.948199Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Joe Rogan Experience has been one of the most popular podcasts since 2015. As of December 2024, it ranks 2nd on both [Spotify](https://podcastcharts.byspotify.com/) and [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/charts). It has featured a broad variety of popular guests, such as Elon Musk, Edward Snowden, Bernie Sanders, Neil deGrasse Tyson, and Donald Trump.\n\nJoe Rogan has hosted notable figures that are bullish on AI, such as [Sam Altman](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dCPytNTnjk) and [Marc Andreessen](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye8MOfxD5nU), as well as individuals that are deeply concerned about the existential risk posed by AI (e.g., Nick Bostron in [Episode #1350](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c4cv7rVlE8) and Jeremie Harris and Edouard Harris in [Episode #2156](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6JdeL90ans)).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after the launch of this question and before January 1, 2026, an episode of the Joe Rogan Experience is published in which one of the guests is a member of the rationality movement, a member of the effective altruism movement, or an AI safety researcher.", "fine_print": "* The episode has to be published - even if it is to only selected members of the podcast's audience (e.g., only those that pay a particular subscription). Trailers, teasers, or partial releases do not count.\n* A person will be considered an AI safety researcher if their primary job is or was at any point technical work in AI safety.\n* A person will be considered to be part of the rationality or effective altruism movements if they actively participate in it (by regularly posting on LessWrong or working for an EA organisation). Self-identification on its own will not resolve this question as **Yes**. In cases of ambiguity, the resolution of this question will be determined by a [resolution council](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#rescouncil) consisting of two Metaculus admins and Scott Alexander.", "post_id": 31256, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745523119.249657, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1306, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745523119.249657, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1306, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5577566464970227 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.11659635404483873, 0.0, 1.0617493142871595e-06, 0.0, 5.985227630854695e-09, 0.01781953045061951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021434347829226326, 0.34196880457851553, 0.051181985423115424, 7.173489849106709e-09, 0.16983269997312675, 4.00295132101158e-08, 0.6678128063069872, 0.003973268839406017, 0.00835679332358987, 0.07015402020447067, 0.4849906153375593, 1.2152804754538553, 3.926189205841971e-05, 0.15878784557053774, 0.5940315843117203, 0.1412196323980445, 1.4985981233221426, 1.2108399500971205, 0.1360796879034309, 0.4196340958209991, 0.0, 2.26081933234265, 0.058620416032444896, 1.0157087577568287, 0.0329362539517032, 2.3291032931553635, 2.425868548134027, 1.705391523235278e-05, 1.0212139015119592, 1.5647818924999226, 0.0032276572696965373, 4.354556536454554, 0.023035724357578276, 1.3558790165547716, 4.4383797412104235e-05, 0.3348040700174283, 1.3882955088042648, 0.9513097208196146, 0.3319952942589965, 1.0752017083710146e-05, 0.35502260363148297, 1.4439804328412555, 2.7334946160581173, 1.0195158522100725, 0.6055935753159457, 0.12811207970954533, 2.981003344025482, 1.0909363414530786, 0.23441599818929043, 0.0, 0.47002368688144613, 3.78928647159222, 0.8245087386731974, 0.029276750040703722, 0.5539573155131382, 0.26945250528981857, 3.6886749546659114, 1.9947876140425547, 0.01966265754479973, 0.7951370901604795, 0.8169107652604205, 1.5852056632883555, 0.8795297492840839, 0.2584881311921053, 0.7956382156494352, 0.7802637445362088, 2.199854436505321, 0.8384358720543685, 0.8985924681879681, 0.0037832757414529294, 0.3793187353928886, 3.81880482379701, 0.12360203915494969, 0.6253701878486757, 0.35832304981167673, 0.006293996071208468, 0.3741643175967555, 0.23597058424114875, 0.8804463441579662, 0.6629833299455874, 0.0017249042467640727, 0.5344078682691209, 0.008150871332653976, 0.07219815455245221, 0.03839199299981507, 0.010428471248165991, 0.5563450461217663, 0.002656994136893167, 0.30245840105943894, 2.6060090339300678e-06, 2.921948183563292 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 7.920600454172681, "peer_score": 4.451712596856806, "coverage": 0.2954038983695917, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999164906389252, "spot_peer_score": 6.539966424486422, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 7.920600454172681, "peer_archived_score": 4.451712596856806, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.539966424486422, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 55, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1885, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Joe Rogan Experience has been one of the most popular podcasts since 2015. As of December 2024, it ranks 2nd on both [Spotify](https://podcastcharts.byspotify.com/) and [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/charts). It has featured a broad variety of popular guests, such as Elon Musk, Edward Snowden, Bernie Sanders, Neil deGrasse Tyson, and Donald Trump.\n\nJoe Rogan has hosted notable figures that are bullish on AI, such as [Sam Altman](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dCPytNTnjk) and [Marc Andreessen](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye8MOfxD5nU), as well as individuals that are deeply concerned about the existential risk posed by AI (e.g., Nick Bostron in [Episode #1350](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c4cv7rVlE8) and Jeremie Harris and Edouard Harris in [Episode #2156](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6JdeL90ans))." }, { "id": 31255, "title": "On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?", "short_title": "Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto at end-2025?", "url_title": "Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto at end-2025?", "slug": "google-meta-amazon-tesla-or-x-accept-crypto-at-end-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-31T15:06:33.071582Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:01:34.885355Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:48:15.061235Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:01:34.885353Z", "comment_count": 85, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2948, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" }, "category": [ { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30906, "title": "On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?", "created_at": "2024-12-31T15:06:33.072288Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Cryptocurrencies have gained significant mainstream attention since 2020, with major figures endorsing them, such as Elon Musk and Donald Trump who [has said](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-stockpile-6f1314f5e99bbf47cc3ee6fc6178588d) that he plans to make the US the \"crypto capital of the planet\". After Trump's win in the US presidential elections, the price of bitcoin skyrocketed, reaching $100k for the first time.\n\nDespite that, cryptocurrencies are still not legal tender in the US and only a small minority of companies accept them as payment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, X, or their subsidiaries accepts any cryptocurrency or crypto token as payment for any core service or product on December 31, 2025.", "fine_print": "* Crypto tokens include stablecoins, such as USDC.\n* The company has to include the product price in crypto in the product listing / details page or any step on the company website during checkout. If the price in crypto is only available when redirected to a payment service provider, this question will not resolve as **Yes**.\n* Any core service or product offered by these companies counts as long as it is not experimental and was not created primarily to allow crypto purchases.\n * Examples of offerings that would resolve this question as **Yes** include, but are not limited to\n * Google: Ads, Pixel phones, Youtube premium, Google Cloud compute\n * Meta: Ads, VR devices\n * Amazon: Anything purchased from their e-commerce platform, Kindle Unlimited, AWS compute\n * Tesla: Cars, Solar Panels, Powerwall\n * X: Ads, X Premium\n * Examples of offerings that would *not* resolve this question as **Yes** include, but are not limited to T-shirts with the company logo, Google phone chargers, and Telsa vehicle accessories (e.g., tires).\n* A company claiming it accepts crypto on its own will not resolve this question as **Yes**. At least one core product or service has to be actually purchasable with crypto.", "post_id": 31255, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757852950.042644, "end_time": 1758245760.79, "forecaster_count": 361, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757852950.042644, "end_time": 1758245760.79, "forecaster_count": 361, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.29980305821869524 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.008736514898051944, 0.0453191191422653, 0.0, 9.145714260435121e-05, 0.00032341329811807324, 3.382566684393143e-06, 0.02023520986223543, 0.0025757998040099677, 0.001888300730648741, 0.0, 4.689270674717292, 0.6702101179571196, 0.9184520774271201, 0.13457359260723467, 0.4846477767897987, 2.882482186057829, 0.009732076769021958, 0.029002444302347923, 0.7195980314929294, 0.8092088969086703, 3.583251476277646, 0.13533528323661267, 7.816514162823543e-05, 0.4970137139930063, 3.62512892199444e-05, 3.888993896883702, 0.0, 0.2211028175685788, 0.8034726435534276, 0.0, 2.4589608283114415, 1.5272620999502164, 0.2649769300386919, 1.4445766205829638, 0.4342747725880372, 1.855262009692607, 0.5558084702735836, 0.0011211006149666005, 0.989602788090193, 0.0, 0.39084255524186007, 0.0, 0.004786342851793361, 0.43122508666483056, 0.0, 0.504983935357986, 0.0, 0.023087734228137504, 0.24828598433281426, 0.0, 1.237495571957965, 0.0, 0.06995764009311024, 0.07067700349814558, 0.0047246887350234565, 0.02896827766135698, 0.003370044484853546, 0.07903042557134046, 0.0, 0.02546907562761184, 0.4290558264519576, 0.0008046942284519067, 0.0005471023251638295, 0.028655072442958972, 0.4045584018451226, 0.03174512639709154, 0.019124958365884473, 0.027058774461315133, 0.1047424748609576, 5.654603104719072e-05, 0.1425377171237348, 0.05543023203698522, 0.003117484461453582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005978958184370506, 0.03869734631472656, 0.0, 0.0004017582121936521, 0.00011160942441848131, 0.04710682081859785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02091590318086875, 0.1007153545065865, 0.028637237169528203, 0.001032632050853397, 0.00010083338781301314, 0.005429266440951057, 0.0, 0.5420977294621115, 0.007235522374056607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05678880311611713, 0.00818496105141037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1809385143197608 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 141, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6312, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cryptocurrencies have gained significant mainstream attention since 2020, with major figures endorsing them, such as Elon Musk and Donald Trump who [has said](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-stockpile-6f1314f5e99bbf47cc3ee6fc6178588d) that he plans to make the US the \"crypto capital of the planet\". After Trump's win in the US presidential elections, the price of bitcoin skyrocketed, reaching $100k for the first time.\n\nDespite that, cryptocurrencies are still not legal tender in the US and only a small minority of companies accept them as payment." }, { "id": 31253, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?", "short_title": "US unemployment rate in Nov 2025 below Nov 2024?", "url_title": "US unemployment rate in Nov 2025 below Nov 2024?", "slug": "us-unemployment-rate-in-nov-2025-below-nov-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-31T10:44:10.552354Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:00:28.231958Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T09:21:09.116596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:00:28.231955Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1011, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30905, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-31T10:44:10.552700Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1Cxe4&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" />", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for November 2025 is lower than 4.2%. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for November 2025 by the BLS, typically found [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).", "fine_print": "Subsequent revisions to the first estimate will not affect the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 31253, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757869228.013004, "end_time": 1758326844.366, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757869228.013004, "end_time": 1758326844.366, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.2724813610428352 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.28445155070714356, 0.9725175071219441, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003277824919576311, 0.08655212419195234, 0.002591826302266159, 0.9669623893592768, 0.0, 0.8201242360763856, 0.016093580527843387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008228434612810186, 0.6956299017762164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10534087220291212, 0.283233756165687, 1.899944933380342, 0.11248627678300838, 1.3409070671903698, 0.02024870524987836, 1.6668777073856242, 3.2063441093503413, 0.0023160235303272604, 1.921068751839862, 4.1496759177868325, 0.0, 2.9197660539289005, 0.5374184673937711, 0.26793609223608483, 1.53510849251898, 0.12235199354789586, 1.2377758521823352, 0.17834615287818822, 0.21658732437961117, 0.0067368050870190025, 0.14396529305096945, 0.17149241204237278, 0.0, 0.37948836417047743, 0.0, 0.036926997281708764, 0.013967501751574697, 0.019948429911526663, 0.18300771194213394, 9.322873741831914e-06, 0.03214791170750318, 0.46146717188050634, 0.11598564687422985, 0.01765239281474521, 0.0, 0.00020417355044461042, 0.09350874294651637, 0.0, 1.9115165644187e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12757355844389706, 0.0, 0.00013643470277378405, 0.0010081236726364195, 0.0, 0.21858588714729899, 0.47019342094754313, 0.004699625700720972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019716764768009338, 0.04653712678150578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04138462742098302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.391051164208758e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11561403835174139 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1704, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1Cxe4&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" />" }, { "id": 31252, "title": "Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?", "short_title": "Will US interest rates be lower at end-2025 than end-2024?", "url_title": "Will US interest rates be lower at end-2025 than end-2024?", "slug": "will-us-interest-rates-be-lower-at-end-2025-than-end-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-31T10:15:40.756213Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T19:58:58.177750Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:47:55.820021Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T19:58:58.177748Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-05T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T19:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1613, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T12:16:07.335771Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30904, "title": "Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-31T10:15:40.756550Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T19:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-05T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [federal funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) is the benchmark interest rate in the US economy and broadly affects key economic conditions such as inflation, employment, and economic growth. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve as a cornerstone of its monetary policy strategy.\n\nIn the beginning of 2022, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to address surging inflation, marking one of the fastest tightening cycles in recent history. As inflation [began to decline](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm), the Fed initiating rate cuts in September 2024. Since then, the FOMC has consistently lowered the federal funds rate at each subsequent meeting.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Effective Federal Funds Rate on December 31, 2025 is lower than 4.33%, according to the [Federal Reserve Bank of New York](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr).", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve according to the Effective Federal Funds Rate, found in the \"Rate\" column in the linked site, and *not* according to the target rate.\n* If the Federal Reserve Bank of New York ceases reporting these data, this question might resolve based on other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) as determined by Metaculus.", "post_id": 31252, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757883588.107321, "end_time": 1758241011.638, "forecaster_count": 268, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.799 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757883588.107321, "end_time": 1758241011.638, "forecaster_count": 268, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.799 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20099999999999996, 0.799 ], "means": [ 0.7788865485459795 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0006135229990368941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006469848240827346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000474661966539137, 0.0, 0.0007029168411106452, 0.5537889033768327, 0.0, 0.0038717382315048877, 0.0, 0.05716497148615505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008732169774716547, 0.0, 0.021496277056006645, 0.0, 0.0, 4.390490336363757e-07, 0.0, 0.09791340113200342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16694792839334374, 0.0003545873742505237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026213074836814524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43387006286979635, 0.0011980563031742631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022130680617756513, 0.004252679197615358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06270995732070167, 0.9547638190326804, 0.0, 0.028312352969596482, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5979698158363438, 0.4860941527298204, 0.003887250576691073, 0.030517320296817047, 0.00035091526055367503, 2.4439847408815636, 0.38853223345274907, 0.8855678905168194, 0.0009751316295497304, 0.0, 2.293255637886374, 0.18499685736385452, 2.792055622819376, 0.8485019729110521, 1.289610917650211, 4.970746756372057, 0.5280268156479142, 0.07667990070065303, 0.11090787371407995, 0.035823452943432914, 3.386894112640566, 0.08417616492138337, 0.914182271463242, 0.2889400614031413, 0.005091570054517356, 0.7062324004186502, 0.10032719886154487, 1.1157188757440384, 0.0, 0.00017960710345806574, 0.11162792401905128, 0.0, 0.940635927868558, 0.40210978664679126, 1.8230924095859369 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 43, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2692, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [federal funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) is the benchmark interest rate in the US economy and broadly affects key economic conditions such as inflation, employment, and economic growth. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve as a cornerstone of its monetary policy strategy.\n\nIn the beginning of 2022, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to address surging inflation, marking one of the fastest tightening cycles in recent history. As inflation [began to decline](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm), the Fed initiating rate cuts in September 2024. Since then, the FOMC has consistently lowered the federal funds rate at each subsequent meeting." } ] }
