Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1360
{ "count": 5903, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1380", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1340", "results": [ { "id": 31253, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?", "short_title": "US unemployment rate in Nov 2025 below Nov 2024?", "url_title": "US unemployment rate in Nov 2025 below Nov 2024?", "slug": "us-unemployment-rate-in-nov-2025-below-nov-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-31T10:44:10.552354Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T20:00:28.231958Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T09:21:09.116596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T20:00:28.231955Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1011, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T14:11:54.346074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T14:11:54.346074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30905, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-31T10:44:10.552700Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1Cxe4&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" />", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for November 2025 is lower than 4.2%. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for November 2025 by the BLS, typically found [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).", "fine_print": "Subsequent revisions to the first estimate will not affect the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 31253, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757869228.013004, "end_time": 1758326844.366, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757869228.013004, "end_time": 1758326844.366, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.2724813610428352 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.28445155070714356, 0.9725175071219441, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003277824919576311, 0.08655212419195234, 0.002591826302266159, 0.9669623893592768, 0.0, 0.8201242360763856, 0.016093580527843387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008228434612810186, 0.6956299017762164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10534087220291212, 0.283233756165687, 1.899944933380342, 0.11248627678300838, 1.3409070671903698, 0.02024870524987836, 1.6668777073856242, 3.2063441093503413, 0.0023160235303272604, 1.921068751839862, 4.1496759177868325, 0.0, 2.9197660539289005, 0.5374184673937711, 0.26793609223608483, 1.53510849251898, 0.12235199354789586, 1.2377758521823352, 0.17834615287818822, 0.21658732437961117, 0.0067368050870190025, 0.14396529305096945, 0.17149241204237278, 0.0, 0.37948836417047743, 0.0, 0.036926997281708764, 0.013967501751574697, 0.019948429911526663, 0.18300771194213394, 9.322873741831914e-06, 0.03214791170750318, 0.46146717188050634, 0.11598564687422985, 0.01765239281474521, 0.0, 0.00020417355044461042, 0.09350874294651637, 0.0, 1.9115165644187e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12757355844389706, 0.0, 0.00013643470277378405, 0.0010081236726364195, 0.0, 0.21858588714729899, 0.47019342094754313, 0.004699625700720972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019716764768009338, 0.04653712678150578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04138462742098302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.391051164208758e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11561403835174139 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1704, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1Cxe4&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" />" }, { "id": 31252, "title": "Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?", "short_title": "Will US interest rates be lower at end-2025 than end-2024?", "url_title": "Will US interest rates be lower at end-2025 than end-2024?", "slug": "will-us-interest-rates-be-lower-at-end-2025-than-end-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-31T10:15:40.756213Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T19:58:58.177750Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:47:55.820021Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T19:58:58.177748Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-05T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-10T19:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1613, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T14:11:54.346074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T14:11:54.346074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30904, "title": "Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-31T10:15:40.756550Z", "open_time": "2025-01-10T19:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-05T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [federal funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) is the benchmark interest rate in the US economy and broadly affects key economic conditions such as inflation, employment, and economic growth. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve as a cornerstone of its monetary policy strategy.\n\nIn the beginning of 2022, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to address surging inflation, marking one of the fastest tightening cycles in recent history. As inflation [began to decline](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm), the Fed initiating rate cuts in September 2024. Since then, the FOMC has consistently lowered the federal funds rate at each subsequent meeting.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Effective Federal Funds Rate on December 31, 2025 is lower than 4.33%, according to the [Federal Reserve Bank of New York](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr).", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve according to the Effective Federal Funds Rate, found in the \"Rate\" column in the linked site, and *not* according to the target rate.\n* If the Federal Reserve Bank of New York ceases reporting these data, this question might resolve based on other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) as determined by Metaculus.", "post_id": 31252, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757883588.107321, "end_time": 1758241011.638, "forecaster_count": 268, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.799 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757883588.107321, "end_time": 1758241011.638, "forecaster_count": 268, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.799 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20099999999999996, 0.799 ], "means": [ 0.7788865485459795 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0006135229990368941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006469848240827346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000474661966539137, 0.0, 0.0007029168411106452, 0.5537889033768327, 0.0, 0.0038717382315048877, 0.0, 0.05716497148615505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008732169774716547, 0.0, 0.021496277056006645, 0.0, 0.0, 4.390490336363757e-07, 0.0, 0.09791340113200342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16694792839334374, 0.0003545873742505237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026213074836814524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43387006286979635, 0.0011980563031742631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022130680617756513, 0.004252679197615358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06270995732070167, 0.9547638190326804, 0.0, 0.028312352969596482, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5979698158363438, 0.4860941527298204, 0.003887250576691073, 0.030517320296817047, 0.00035091526055367503, 2.4439847408815636, 0.38853223345274907, 0.8855678905168194, 0.0009751316295497304, 0.0, 2.293255637886374, 0.18499685736385452, 2.792055622819376, 0.8485019729110521, 1.289610917650211, 4.970746756372057, 0.5280268156479142, 0.07667990070065303, 0.11090787371407995, 0.035823452943432914, 3.386894112640566, 0.08417616492138337, 0.914182271463242, 0.2889400614031413, 0.005091570054517356, 0.7062324004186502, 0.10032719886154487, 1.1157188757440384, 0.0, 0.00017960710345806574, 0.11162792401905128, 0.0, 0.940635927868558, 0.40210978664679126, 1.8230924095859369 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 43, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2692, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [federal funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) is the benchmark interest rate in the US economy and broadly affects key economic conditions such as inflation, employment, and economic growth. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve as a cornerstone of its monetary policy strategy.\n\nIn the beginning of 2022, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to address surging inflation, marking one of the fastest tightening cycles in recent history. As inflation [began to decline](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm), the Fed initiating rate cuts in September 2024. Since then, the FOMC has consistently lowered the federal funds rate at each subsequent meeting." }, { "id": 31247, "title": "Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "TikTok Ban In Effect in US on January 20, 2025?", "url_title": "TikTok Ban In Effect in US on January 20, 2025?", "slug": "tiktok-ban-in-effect-in-us-on-january-20-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-30T22:02:25.504326Z", "published_at": "2025-01-03T15:04:53.744490Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.527032Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-03T15:04:53.744486Z", "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-22T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T19:36:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-03T15:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 455, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32559, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_TqQCKYL.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-12-11T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-03T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-03T20:11:36.362514Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-08T06:50:47.494484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32559, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_TqQCKYL.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-12-11T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-03T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-03T20:11:36.362514Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-08T06:50:47.494484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30902, "title": "Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-30T22:02:25.504754Z", "open_time": "2025-01-03T15:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-04T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-04T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-22T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T19:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-20T19:36:34.441612Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 24, 2024, President Joe Biden signed [H.R. 815](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815), an emergency appropriations bill which incorporated the [*Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act*](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815/text#:~:text=DIVISION%20H%2D%2D%20%3C%3CNOTE%3A%20Protecting%20Americans%20from%20Foreign%20Adversary%20%0A%20%20%20%20Controlled%20Applications%20Act.%3E%3E%20PROTECTING%20AMERICANS%20FROM%20FOREIGN%20%0AADVERSARY%20CONTROLLED%20APPLICATIONS%20ACT)*.* This act prohibited the distribution of applications within the United States that are controlled by foreign adversaries, and would have the effect of [banning TikTok](https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/04/24/tiktok-could-be-banned-in-9-months-heres-what-may-stop-that/), a highly popular video-based social media app [operated by the Chinese company ByteDance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok). The act gave ByteDance 270 days to either sell the US component of TikTok or be subject to a prohibition on its ability to distribute, maintain, or update the app. The 270 day period ends on January 19, 2025.\n\nIn December 2024, the Supreme Court [agreed to hear a challenge to the ban](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-agrees-hear-tiktoks-challenge-law-ban-rcna184686), with oral arguments taking place [on January 10, 2025](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/tiktok-inc-v-garland/). In its [emergency application for injunction](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24-656/335257/20241216144658388_TikTok%20Inc.%20v.%20Garland%20-%20SCOTUS%20Application%20for%20Injunction.pdf) TikTok and ByteDance claimed that TikTok has more than 170 million monthly American users.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a ban on TikTok is in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025, in accordance with the *Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act* passed as part of [H.R. 815](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815).", "fine_print": "* If the ban is reported to be in effect and has not been stayed, paused, or otherwise rescinded, so that the ban was in effect for some portion of the day on January 20, 2025, Eastern Time, the question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* Pending legal challenges and the compliance or non-compliance of ByteDance with the law are immaterial, the question resolves based on the status of US law on the date in question.\n* Metaculus will resolve this question according to credible information published before January 22, 2025, Eastern Time.", "post_id": 31247, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737262701.80894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 448, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737262701.80894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 448, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9078992597469269 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1542627951681605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020998339284500275, 0.0, 0.0009897732258536585, 3.5066818743912536e-08, 1.6817745660869857e-07, 9.979713582778244e-07, 0.00020819841504135856, 0.0021724216289799084, 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51.10374026749635, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -24.684335544619024, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 50, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1074, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 24, 2024, President Joe Biden signed [H.R. 815](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815), an emergency appropriations bill which incorporated the [*Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act*](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/815/text#:~:text=DIVISION%20H%2D%2D%20%3C%3CNOTE%3A%20Protecting%20Americans%20from%20Foreign%20Adversary%20%0A%20%20%20%20Controlled%20Applications%20Act.%3E%3E%20PROTECTING%20AMERICANS%20FROM%20FOREIGN%20%0AADVERSARY%20CONTROLLED%20APPLICATIONS%20ACT)*.* This act prohibited the distribution of applications within the United States that are controlled by foreign adversaries, and would have the effect of [banning TikTok](https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/04/24/tiktok-could-be-banned-in-9-months-heres-what-may-stop-that/), a highly popular video-based social media app [operated by the Chinese company ByteDance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok). The act gave ByteDance 270 days to either sell the US component of TikTok or be subject to a prohibition on its ability to distribute, maintain, or update the app. The 270 day period ends on January 19, 2025.\n\nIn December 2024, the Supreme Court [agreed to hear a challenge to the ban](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-agrees-hear-tiktoks-challenge-law-ban-rcna184686), with oral arguments taking place [on January 10, 2025](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/tiktok-inc-v-garland/). In its [emergency application for injunction](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24-656/335257/20241216144658388_TikTok%20Inc.%20v.%20Garland%20-%20SCOTUS%20Application%20for%20Injunction.pdf) TikTok and ByteDance claimed that TikTok has more than 170 million monthly American users." }, { "id": 31245, "title": "[Short fuse] Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Netanyahu Attends Trump's Inauguration January 2025?", "url_title": "Netanyahu Attends Trump's Inauguration January 2025?", "slug": "netanyahu-attends-trumps-inauguration-january-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-30T21:15:44.683488Z", "published_at": "2025-01-08T19:36:15.018073Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.351340Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-08T19:36:15.018071Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-22T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T18:54:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-09T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30900, "title": "[Short fuse] Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-30T21:15:44.683849Z", "open_time": "2025-01-09T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-13T19:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-13T19:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-22T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T18:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-23T18:56:18.787191Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to be [inaugurated on January 20, 2025](https://www.nps.gov/subjects/inauguration/schedule-of-events.htm). During a [presidential inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration) the incoming president takes the oath of office and formally assumes the presidency.\n\nInaugurations are [traditionally attended](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration#Attendees) by important US government officials and typically the outgoing president. However, it was [reported](https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/12/politics/trump-foreign-leaders-inauguration-invites/index.html) in December 2024 that Trump had invited foreign heads of state to attend his inauguration. Among those reportedly invited were Chinese President Xi Jinping, El Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele, and Argentinean President Javier Milei. According to [reporting by the Miami Herald](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article297314429.html) this represents a departure from prior tradition. For example, [reporting](https://abc13.com/archive/6601382/) regarding Barack Obama's 2009 inauguration discussed its express prohibition on foreign leaders as follows:\n\n> The State Department last week informed all foreign embassies in Washington that, in keeping with past practice, their ambassadors and spouses can come to the event to represent their countries. Officials from their capitals, however, must stay home.\r\n> \n> \"These invitations are only for the chiefs of diplomatic missions and their spouses and are not transferable,\" Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wrote in a diplomatic note sent to the embassies on Jan. 6.\r\n> \n> An earlier note, sent by Rice to the embassies on Nov. 24, says the exclusion of foreign leaders and top government officials is customary for U.S. presidential inaugurations. \"As in the past, foreign delegations will not be invited to Washington for this occasion,\" it said.\n\n[CNN reported](https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/12/politics/trump-foreign-leaders-inauguration-invites/index.html) unsourced confirmations of several foreign heads of state invited, but did not have a full list of invitees, saying\n\n> Trump’s transition team did not respond to questions about what other leaders he invited. On Thursday, the president-elect suggested he may invite other foreign leaders people told him may be “a little risky.”\n\nOne potentially risky invitee would be Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu has visited the United States [a number of times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_prime_ministerial_trips_made_by_Benjamin_Netanyahu) during his terms as Prime Minister of Israel, and Israel is a close ally of the United States. But Netanyahu has not been explicitly named as having been invited by Trump, and a visit by Netanyahu to the United States could be complicated by a [November 2024 arrest warrant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Israeli_leaders) for Netanyahu issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in relation to Israel's ongoing operation in Gaza. The United States [is not a party to the Rome Statue](https://www.aba-icc.org/about-the-icc/the-us-icc-relationship/) that establishes the ICC, and therefore avoids [ICC obligations](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/bookletArrestsENG.pdf) on state parties to arrest individuals with outstanding warrants. However, such a trip would pose risks of needing to land in countries that are parties to the ICC.\n\nIn December of 2024 [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-netanyahu-planning-to-attend-trumps-inauguration-in-january/) and [Ynetnews](https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hk11bpaysye) published articles rumoring that Netanyahu may attend Trump's inauguration.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Benjamin Netanyahu attended in-person the presidential inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20, 2025.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, attending the inauguration will mean attendance at any part of the swearing-in ceremony. Attendance of the inaugural luncheon or inaugural parade without attending the swearing-in ceremony would not qualify.\n* In the event the inauguration is held on January 20, 2025, but must be performed privately, for example due to inclement weather, the question will still resolve as **Yes** if Netanyahu is reported to be present in-person at the swearing-in ceremony.\n* If the US presidential inauguration does not occur on January 20, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.\n* Metaculus will resolve this question according to information published before January 22, 2025, describing persons who physically attended the inauguration.\n* The time zone used for the dates and times mentioned in this question will be Eastern Time.", "post_id": 31245, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737308272.179309, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.046 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737308272.179309, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.046 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04464444108640504 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.803048421349177, 0.8502051036716037, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.15398794315595, "peer_score": 15.421562755428576, "coverage": 0.934691685209786, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.934691685209786, "spot_peer_score": 17.083952704397674, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "baseline_archived_score": 83.15398794315595, "peer_archived_score": 15.421562755428576, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.083952704397674, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to be [inaugurated on January 20, 2025](https://www.nps.gov/subjects/inauguration/schedule-of-events.htm). During a [presidential inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration) the incoming president takes the oath of office and formally assumes the presidency.\n\nInaugurations are [traditionally attended](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration#Attendees) by important US government officials and typically the outgoing president. However, it was [reported](https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/12/politics/trump-foreign-leaders-inauguration-invites/index.html) in December 2024 that Trump had invited foreign heads of state to attend his inauguration. Among those reportedly invited were Chinese President Xi Jinping, El Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele, and Argentinean President Javier Milei. According to [reporting by the Miami Herald](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article297314429.html) this represents a departure from prior tradition. For example, [reporting](https://abc13.com/archive/6601382/) regarding Barack Obama's 2009 inauguration discussed its express prohibition on foreign leaders as follows:\n\n> The State Department last week informed all foreign embassies in Washington that, in keeping with past practice, their ambassadors and spouses can come to the event to represent their countries. Officials from their capitals, however, must stay home.\r\n> \n> \"These invitations are only for the chiefs of diplomatic missions and their spouses and are not transferable,\" Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wrote in a diplomatic note sent to the embassies on Jan. 6.\r\n> \n> An earlier note, sent by Rice to the embassies on Nov. 24, says the exclusion of foreign leaders and top government officials is customary for U.S. presidential inaugurations. \"As in the past, foreign delegations will not be invited to Washington for this occasion,\" it said.\n\n[CNN reported](https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/12/politics/trump-foreign-leaders-inauguration-invites/index.html) unsourced confirmations of several foreign heads of state invited, but did not have a full list of invitees, saying\n\n> Trump’s transition team did not respond to questions about what other leaders he invited. On Thursday, the president-elect suggested he may invite other foreign leaders people told him may be “a little risky.”\n\nOne potentially risky invitee would be Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu has visited the United States [a number of times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_prime_ministerial_trips_made_by_Benjamin_Netanyahu) during his terms as Prime Minister of Israel, and Israel is a close ally of the United States. But Netanyahu has not been explicitly named as having been invited by Trump, and a visit by Netanyahu to the United States could be complicated by a [November 2024 arrest warrant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Israeli_leaders) for Netanyahu issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in relation to Israel's ongoing operation in Gaza. The United States [is not a party to the Rome Statue](https://www.aba-icc.org/about-the-icc/the-us-icc-relationship/) that establishes the ICC, and therefore avoids [ICC obligations](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/bookletArrestsENG.pdf) on state parties to arrest individuals with outstanding warrants. However, such a trip would pose risks of needing to land in countries that are parties to the ICC.\n\nIn December of 2024 [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-netanyahu-planning-to-attend-trumps-inauguration-in-january/) and [Ynetnews](https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hk11bpaysye) published articles rumoring that Netanyahu may attend Trump's inauguration." }, { "id": 31227, "title": "Will the FTC's proposed ban on non-compete agreements for most workers be enacted in more or less its current form before 2026?", "short_title": "FTC non-compete ban enacted in 2025?", "url_title": "FTC non-compete ban enacted in 2025?", "slug": "ftc-non-compete-ban-enacted-in-2025", "author_id": 237976, "author_username": "lukehartman123", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-29T00:54:55.603412Z", "published_at": "2024-12-31T09:32:31.905890Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:05:02.173187Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-31T09:32:31.905888Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-25T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-01T09:31:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30897, "title": "Will the FTC's proposed ban on non-compete agreements for most workers be enacted in more or less its current form before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-29T00:54:55.603846Z", "open_time": "2025-01-01T09:31:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-05T09:31:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-05T09:31:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-25T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-25T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 2024, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) issued a [final rule](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/04/ftc-announces-rule-banning-noncompetes) banning most non-compete agreements in the United States, claiming that this would generate over 8,500 new businesses each year, raise worker wages, lower health care costs, and boost innovation. The rule would prohibit employers from entering into or enforcing non-compete clauses with workers, including employees and independent contractors, with limited exceptions for senior executives. Employers would be required to rescind existing non-compete agreements and notify affected workers that such clauses are no longer in effect.\n\nThe rule was scheduled to take effect on September 4, 2024, however, on August 20, 2024, Judge Ada Brown of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas [blocked the rule](https://hrdailyadvisor.blr.com/2024/10/11/after-judge-blocks-ftcs-worker-non-compete-ban-now-what/) nationwide, ruling that the FTC lacked the statutory authority to implement such a ban and that the rule was \"arbitrary and capricious\". On October 18, 2024, the FTC [filed an appeal](https://www.psca.org/news/psca-news/2024/10/where-does-the-ftcs-non-compete-ban-stand-now/) with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if FTC's [ban on noncompetes](https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/browse/rules/noncompete-rule) is enacted before January 1, 2026 with at most minor changes.\n\nAs of December 2024, the current form of the regulation would apply to all workers at companies which are under FTC's jurisdiction, with a single exception of individuals earning more than $151,164 who are in a \"policy-making position\". It also applies to both existing and future non-compete agreements.\n\nMinor changes are defined as amendments in the current exceptions that affect less than 10% of workers under FTC's jurisdiction (as judged by Metaculus), as changes to the notice requirements employers should give to their employees, or other changes of a similar scope as judged by Metaculus admins.\n\nIf the rule is not enacted before January 1, 2026 or if it is enacted with other changes, including but not limited to changes that affect at least 10% of workers or changes to if the rule would be applied to existing contracts at all, would resolve this question as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the first day the corresponding rule is enacted. If the rule is enacted and then subsequently amended or blocked, the resolution of this question will not be affected.", "post_id": 31227, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757720083.356, "end_time": 1759436174.573, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757720083.356, "end_time": 1759436174.573, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.30527798239095216 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.234690009817989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 2024, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) issued a [final rule](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/04/ftc-announces-rule-banning-noncompetes) banning most non-compete agreements in the United States, claiming that this would generate over 8,500 new businesses each year, raise worker wages, lower health care costs, and boost innovation. The rule would prohibit employers from entering into or enforcing non-compete clauses with workers, including employees and independent contractors, with limited exceptions for senior executives. Employers would be required to rescind existing non-compete agreements and notify affected workers that such clauses are no longer in effect.\n\nThe rule was scheduled to take effect on September 4, 2024, however, on August 20, 2024, Judge Ada Brown of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas [blocked the rule](https://hrdailyadvisor.blr.com/2024/10/11/after-judge-blocks-ftcs-worker-non-compete-ban-now-what/) nationwide, ruling that the FTC lacked the statutory authority to implement such a ban and that the rule was \"arbitrary and capricious\". On October 18, 2024, the FTC [filed an appeal](https://www.psca.org/news/psca-news/2024/10/where-does-the-ftcs-non-compete-ban-stand-now/) with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit." }, { "id": 31217, "title": "O Brasil lançará oficialmente a sua moeda digital (Drex) até Março de 2025?", "short_title": "Drex será lançado em 2025?", "url_title": "Drex será lançado em 2025?", "slug": "drex-sera-lancado-em-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-27T16:38:52.633918Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T22:35:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.964486Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T22:35:40Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 193, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32632, "type": "tournament", "name": "Torneio de Previsões do Brasil - 1º Trimestre", "slug": "Brasil", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL_keLMM1n._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "prize_pool": "1500.00", "start_date": "2025-01-22T18:28:39Z", "close_date": "2025-05-02T20:01:37Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-01-13T18:29:24.189802Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-02T14:26:22.883704Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30894, "title": "O Brasil lançará oficialmente a sua moeda digital (Drex) até Março de 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-27T16:38:52.634346Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T01:39:02.460691Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "O **Drex** é a versão digital do real, desenvolvida pelo Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) como parte de uma iniciativa para modernizar o sistema financeiro nacional. Classificado como uma Moeda Digital de Banco Central (CBDC), o Drex visa complementar o real físico, mantendo paridade de valor (1 Drex = 1 real). Seu objetivo é proporcionar transações financeiras mais seguras, rápidas e eficientes, além de ampliar a inclusão financeira no país.\n\nO projeto do Drex está em fase de testes desde 2023, com previsão de lançamento oficial para 2025. O Banco Central tem conduzido um piloto de 18 meses para avaliar a tecnologia, ajustar o sistema e garantir a segurança e eficiência das operações antes de sua implementação definitiva.\n\nA introdução do Drex não substitui outros meios de pagamento, como o Pix, mas oferece uma alternativa digital ao dinheiro físico, integrando-se ao ecossistema financeiro existente. Espera-se que o Drex facilite transações programáveis, reduza custos operacionais e promova maior transparência e segurança nas operações financeiras.\n\nFontes:\n\n[Banco Central do Brasil](https://www.bcb.gov.br/estabilidadefinanceira/drex)\n\n[O que deve mudar no dia a dia com a implementação do Drex, o real digital? Entenda](https://www.estadao.com.br/economia/drex-real-digital-o-que-muda-como-funciona-dia-a-dia-entenda-nprei)\n\n[Estadão](https://www.estadao.com.br/economia/desafio-bc-nao-travar-inovacao-drex/)\n\n[Exame](https://exame.com/future-of-money/9-mitos-verdades-drex/)", "resolution_criteria": "Considera-se \"lançamento oficial\" o momento em que o Drex é disponibilizado para uso pelo público em geral, conforme anúncio do Banco Central do Brasil.\n\n**\"Sim\"**: Se, até **31 de março de 2025**, o Banco Central do Brasil anunciar oficialmente o lançamento do Drex, tornando-o disponível para uso público. A confirmação será baseada em comunicados oficiais do BCB, publicações no Diário Oficial da União ou declarações públicas de autoridades competentes.\n\n**\"Não\"**: Se, até **31 de março de 2025**, não houver anúncio oficial do lançamento do Drex para uso público, ou se o BCB declarar um adiamento formal do lançamento para uma data posterior.", "fine_print": "Disponibilidade para uso público significa que TODOS os seguintes critérios devem ser verdadeiros:\n\n1. Qualquer residente brasileiro com CPF válido pode se cadastrar para usar o Drex\n2. Pelo menos um dos seguintes tipos de transação está totalmente operacional:\n * Conversão direta entre Real brasileiro e Drex\n * Transferências de Drex entre pessoas\n * Pagamentos no varejo usando Drex\n3. O sistema deve estar acessível através de pelo menos um dos seguintes:\n * Aplicativos de banco mobile\n * Plataformas web\n * Agências bancárias físicas\n4. O sistema deve estar operando além da fase de testes, com valor monetário real (não tokens de teste)\n5. A disponibilidade pública deve ser nacional, não limitada a regiões específicas ou programas piloto", "post_id": 31217, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743361972.558584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743361972.558584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.993, 0.007 ], "means": [ 0.08915664756478447 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.187951909677878, 5.963805187511594, 0.36481101746630074, 1.4143196205574917, 0.8335655663567724, 0.5299434235767442, 0.06236046784167953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008064569391464462, 0.04739330867346103, 0.03745476996519724, 0.025489107341196793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009495691384010036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005554568438460635, 0.6196435429784608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13695328524900732, 0.0, 1.9543773919552642e-05, 0.0, 0.47540979029483066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0519489138174745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14898648627775507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16886083205088975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008779288729133037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021710918941424587, 0.0, 0.017911434164077526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5831899443155463, 0.0, 0.007627439668905402, 0.021921772431164863, 0.0, 0.010626107382515858, 0.005111454814537073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013351516707628568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010044495521858586, 0.3288971716092576, 0.0, 9.730119705451762e-05, 0.2751852216007391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1527383049073727e-05, 0.28637020815578434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5083108816895083 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.9250075826931, "peer_score": 35.301076535944034, "coverage": 0.9897792279605708, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9970101422336829, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 97.9250075826931, "peer_archived_score": 35.301076535944034, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 358, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "O **Drex** é a versão digital do real, desenvolvida pelo Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) como parte de uma iniciativa para modernizar o sistema financeiro nacional. Classificado como uma Moeda Digital de Banco Central (CBDC), o Drex visa complementar o real físico, mantendo paridade de valor (1 Drex = 1 real). Seu objetivo é proporcionar transações financeiras mais seguras, rápidas e eficientes, além de ampliar a inclusão financeira no país.\n\nO projeto do Drex está em fase de testes desde 2023, com previsão de lançamento oficial para 2025. O Banco Central tem conduzido um piloto de 18 meses para avaliar a tecnologia, ajustar o sistema e garantir a segurança e eficiência das operações antes de sua implementação definitiva.\n\nA introdução do Drex não substitui outros meios de pagamento, como o Pix, mas oferece uma alternativa digital ao dinheiro físico, integrando-se ao ecossistema financeiro existente. Espera-se que o Drex facilite transações programáveis, reduza custos operacionais e promova maior transparência e segurança nas operações financeiras.\n\nFontes:\n\n[Banco Central do Brasil](https://www.bcb.gov.br/estabilidadefinanceira/drex)\n\n[O que deve mudar no dia a dia com a implementação do Drex, o real digital? Entenda](https://www.estadao.com.br/economia/drex-real-digital-o-que-muda-como-funciona-dia-a-dia-entenda-nprei)\n\n[Estadão](https://www.estadao.com.br/economia/desafio-bc-nao-travar-inovacao-drex/)\n\n[Exame](https://exame.com/future-of-money/9-mitos-verdades-drex/)" }, { "id": 31215, "title": "O \"X\" será alvo de um processo judicial no Brasil durante o primeiro trimestre de 2025?", "short_title": "O \"X\" enfretará processo judicial no Brasil em 2025?", "url_title": "O \"X\" enfretará processo judicial no Brasil em 2025?", "slug": "o-x-enfretara-processo-judicial-no-brasil-em-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-27T14:57:12.740185Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T22:35:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.730465Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T22:35:27Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32632, "type": "tournament", "name": "Torneio de Previsões do Brasil - 1º Trimestre", "slug": "Brasil", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL_keLMM1n._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "prize_pool": "1500.00", "start_date": "2025-01-22T18:28:39Z", "close_date": "2025-05-02T20:01:37Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-01-13T18:29:24.189802Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-02T14:26:22.883704Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30892, "title": "O \"X\" será alvo de um processo judicial no Brasil durante o primeiro trimestre de 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-27T14:57:12.740547Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T01:34:02.680838Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "O X (antigo Twitter) foi bloqueado de funcionamento no Brasil de 30 de agosto de 2024 até 8 de outubro de 2024, pelo ministro do Supremo Tribunal Federal, Alexandre de Moraes, relator do mandado de intimação.\n\nTal decisão judicial foi tomada após a empresa, pertencente a Elon Musk, ter descontinuado as suas operações no Brasil e ter desobedecido várias ordens judiciais, ao não ter nomeado um representante legal dentro do prazo estipulado pelo ministro, que havia intimado o empresário por meio de uma postagem na própria plataforma.\n\nA suspensão acabou em 8 de outubro de 2024, após a rede social confirmar que cumpriu todas as ordens judiciais, ter nomeado uma representante legal no Brasil e ter pagado uma multa de 28,6 milhões de reais. No mesmo dia o ministro do STF, Alexandre de Moraes, após certificar que a rede social havia cumprido todas as ordens judiciais e ter pago todas as multas, ordenou que o X voltasse a operar legalmente no Brasil. Logo em seguida o ministro informou que ordenou que a Anatel desbloqueasse o acesso a rede social em até 24 horas no Brasil, e a Anatel notificou as operadoras e provedores de internet que liberassem o acesso ao site e ao aplicativo do X imediatamente.\n\nFonte: [O Bloqueio do X no Brasil](https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloqueio_do_X_no_Brasil) - Wikipedia\n[Bloqueio do X: a manobra que fez rede de Elon Musk voltar a funcionar no Brasil](https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/c5y3xy47jxzo)", "resolution_criteria": "**Considera-se \"Sim\"**: Se, entre **1º de janeiro de 2025 e 31 de março de 2025**, for registrado formalmente um processo judicial contra o **X** em qualquer tribunal brasileiro, conforme verificado em fontes públicas confiáveis (e.g., Tribunal de Justiça Estadual, Superior Tribunal de Justiça, Justiça Federal, ou outro órgão judicial relevante). O registro deve ser confirmado por meio de fontes oficiais, como portais de consulta pública ou comunicados à imprensa.\n\n**\"Não\"**: Se, até **31 de março de 2025**, **nenhum processo judicial** for formalmente iniciado contra o **X**, ou se não houver registro público que confirme tal evento.\n\nFontes de Resolução:\n\n* Portais oficiais do Poder Judiciário, como os Tribunais de Justiça Estaduais e Federais, [CNJ](https://www.cnj.jus.br)\n* Plataforma de processos judiciais, como o e-SAJ, PJe e outros sistemas usados no Brasil.\n* Veículos confiáveis que reportem sobre ações judiciais envolvendo o **X** no Brasil, como Folha de São Paulo, Estadão, G1.", "fine_print": "1. Definição de Processo Judicial:\n\n* Deve ser uma nova ação judicial (não continuação de casos anteriores)\n* Deve ser apresentado em tribunais brasileiros com jurisdição apropriada\n* Deve nomear X (Twitter/X Corp) ou sua subsidiária brasileira como réu principal\n* Processos civis e criminais se qualificam\n* Deve ser formalmente registrado com número de processo\n\n1. Ações Qualificadas: Deve ser UM dos seguintes: a) Nova ação judicial contra X b) Investigação criminal formalmente aberta c) Ação de fiscalização regulatória em tribunais judiciais NÃO inclui:\n\n* Processos administrativos\n* Investigações preliminares sem denúncia formal\n* Casos onde X não é o réu principal\n\n1. Verificação Oficial (em ordem de prioridade): a) Registros oficiais do sistema judicial (PROJUDI, PJe, e-SAJ) b) Comunicados oficiais dos tribunais c) Registros do Conselho Nacional de Justiça (CNJ) d) Pelo menos dois grandes veículos de notícias reportando com números de processo\n2. Prazo e Documentação:\n\n* Processo deve ser apresentado entre 1º de janeiro e 31 de março de 2025\n* Deve ser publicamente verificável até 15 de abril de 2025\n* Processos sigilosos devem ser confirmados por declaração oficial do tribunal", "post_id": 31215, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743370634.096197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743370634.096197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.13165412117933836 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7678683327181357, 0.2181367051741592, 0.9789173891105221, 1.5033737085851597, 1.0052151336142297, 3.7311055597410334, 0.9974537681689003, 3.1503474614937, 0.7532435377005311, 0.16029980967061414, 0.8975136516534902, 0.1252742930940479, 0.29162303094837244, 0.016115088998120218, 0.09289605243238094, 0.15774860314838784, 0.9605651690245454, 0.0036516600005937886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5873623507748738, 0.02589631589784238, 0.8366023262604065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.693394443109511, 0.0, 0.1110731086045971, 0.007063486404796611, 0.0, 0.00030137657078466016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09904489893193645, 0.007119823456878581, 0.14340985684034882, 0.0025340789343860424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15752345447742494, 0.33125147669908556, 0.0023036159304943298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01851233929524182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002158340905255293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011936080322674759, 0.0, 0.00657533552904922, 0.006275945804723218, 0.025734859850588335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2422618468955065, 0.0, 0.001711392035097955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0694878586022389, 0.0027828968472010237, 0.00025623189860816427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00559061969998248, 0.0006965105138581336, 0.02293987585831538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.229588041844485, 0.0, 0.0004694839739827184, 0.002090382624178287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05823446622155656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.267254658357368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26554095604383465 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.86961100368443, "peer_score": 52.693208067524616, "coverage": 0.9897810656429125, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.997011993341365, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 73.86961100368443, "peer_archived_score": 52.693208067524616, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 268, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "O X (antigo Twitter) foi bloqueado de funcionamento no Brasil de 30 de agosto de 2024 até 8 de outubro de 2024, pelo ministro do Supremo Tribunal Federal, Alexandre de Moraes, relator do mandado de intimação.\n\nTal decisão judicial foi tomada após a empresa, pertencente a Elon Musk, ter descontinuado as suas operações no Brasil e ter desobedecido várias ordens judiciais, ao não ter nomeado um representante legal dentro do prazo estipulado pelo ministro, que havia intimado o empresário por meio de uma postagem na própria plataforma.\n\nA suspensão acabou em 8 de outubro de 2024, após a rede social confirmar que cumpriu todas as ordens judiciais, ter nomeado uma representante legal no Brasil e ter pagado uma multa de 28,6 milhões de reais. No mesmo dia o ministro do STF, Alexandre de Moraes, após certificar que a rede social havia cumprido todas as ordens judiciais e ter pago todas as multas, ordenou que o X voltasse a operar legalmente no Brasil. Logo em seguida o ministro informou que ordenou que a Anatel desbloqueasse o acesso a rede social em até 24 horas no Brasil, e a Anatel notificou as operadoras e provedores de internet que liberassem o acesso ao site e ao aplicativo do X imediatamente.\n\nFonte: [O Bloqueio do X no Brasil](https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloqueio_do_X_no_Brasil) - Wikipedia\n[Bloqueio do X: a manobra que fez rede de Elon Musk voltar a funcionar no Brasil](https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/c5y3xy47jxzo)" }, { "id": 31213, "title": "O Marco Legal de Inteligência Artificial (IA) será aprovado na Câmara dos Deputados até Março de 2025?", "short_title": "Marco Legal de IA será aprovado até Março de 2025?", "url_title": "Marco Legal de IA será aprovado até Março de 2025?", "slug": "marco-legal-de-ia-sera-aprovado-ate-marco-de-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-27T14:04:07.548396Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T22:35:07Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.435164Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T22:35:07Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 151, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32632, "type": "tournament", "name": "Torneio de Previsões do Brasil - 1º Trimestre", "slug": "Brasil", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL_keLMM1n._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "prize_pool": "1500.00", "start_date": "2025-01-22T18:28:39Z", "close_date": "2025-05-02T20:01:37Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-01-13T18:29:24.189802Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-02T14:26:22.883704Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30890, "title": "O Marco Legal de Inteligência Artificial (IA) será aprovado na Câmara dos Deputados até Março de 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-27T14:04:07.548785Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T01:32:10.581023Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "O Marco Legal de Inteligência Artificial é uma iniciativa legislativa no Brasil que visa regular o desenvolvimento e uso da IA no país. Ele busca estabelecer diretrizes éticas, técnicas e legais para o uso responsável da tecnologia, promovendo inovação enquanto mitiga riscos.\n\nO processo legislativo inclui discussão em comissões temáticas, ajustes no texto-base e aprovação em plenário.\n\nO projeto de lei foi introduzido no Congresso Nacional em 2021. Desde então, passou por diversas discussões e alterações em comissões. \n\nO Senado aprovou na data de 10 de Dezembro de 2024 o projeto que regulamenta a inteligência artificial (IA) no Brasil. A matéria segue agora para a análise da Câmara dos Deputados. O texto se apresenta como um marco regulatório com regras para o desenvolvimento e o uso de sistemas de IA. Entre os dispositivos está um que prevê a proteção dos direitos dos criadores de conteúdo e obras artísticas. A votação foi conduzida pelo senador Weverton (PDT-MA).\n\nO texto aprovado nesta terça-feira é um [substitutivo](/noticias/glossario-legislativo/substitutivo) do senador Eduardo Gomes (PL-TO) que tem como base o [PL 2.338/2023](https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/atividade/materias/-/materia/157233), projeto de lei apresentado por Rodrigo Pacheco, presidente do Senado. E esse projeto, por sua vez, surgiu a partir de um anteprojeto elaborado por uma comissão de juristas\n\nFonte: [Agência Senado](https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/materias/2024/12/10/senado-aprova-regulamentacao-da-inteligencia-artificial-texto-vai-a-camara)\n\n[G1](https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/12/05/senado-aprova-regras-para-inteligencia-artificial-no-brasil.ghtml)\n\n[Votação da regulamentação da inteligência artificial deve ficar para o ano que vem](https://valor.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/12/11/votacao-da-regulamentacao-da-inteligencia-artificial-deve-ficar-para-o-ano-que-vem.ghtml)", "resolution_criteria": "A pergunta será considerada **positiva (\"Sim\")** se o projeto do Marco Legal de Inteligência Artificial for **aprovado em votação no plenário da Câmara dos Deputados** até 31 de março de 2025 (23:59, horário de Brasília). A aprovação será reconhecida com base na publicação oficial no site da Câmara dos Deputados.\n\nCaso a votação não ocorra ou o projeto não seja aprovado até a data-limite, a pergunta será considerada **negativa (\"Não\")**.\n\n#### **Fontes confiáveis para monitoramento**:\n\n* [Portal da Câmara dos Deputados](https://www.camara.leg.br)\n* [Diário Oficial da União](https://www.in.gov.br/servicos/diario-oficial-da-uniao)\n* Cobertura de grandes veículos de comunicação nacionais (ex.: Agência Brasil, G1, Folha de S. Paulo, Estadão).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31213, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743294739.226935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743294739.226935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.15913707268337152 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.806508087814654, 1.5356312341061908, 0.05618100533105858, 0.11250616192551396, 0.0, 3.549716265893922, 0.22014868850053126, 0.5522013127863685, 1.9844954821225889, 0.9623756992694821, 3.183130339581778, 0.7463012625161936, 0.053632273300335834, 0.4680862676657188, 1.6826783772129372, 0.509669388629438, 0.25541618307785063, 0.07086542748538868, 0.0, 0.002376463994267002, 0.5162026454597216, 0.021654222644480175, 0.4504374378017173, 0.0, 0.0172556258692511, 0.03159180712543634, 0.0, 0.00010037919274766585, 0.12166650024820742, 0.0, 0.03337733562529836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037979036519217007, 0.0, 0.06709434675990011, 0.032554956057849714, 0.36010063532393743, 3.6927441333251805e-05, 0.0, 0.41741828256822333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011806467911587354, 0.0, 0.28173823551465066, 0.0, 0.001430542742881062, 0.0008189102195649812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.455329680677371e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004885933933727166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0049395281699542316, 0.010144916769083087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043750620879576686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17968038279939189, 0.15528778860165848, 0.009497552164587798, 0.1709730893949412, 0.00352062379201601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0342251423215965, 1.3584846481567895e-05, 0.0006047326536319275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37471728072712174, 0.2876050829455212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5749958140683732 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.63388670772221, "peer_score": 44.14050985302732, "coverage": 0.9897874964972673, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9970184711768602, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 76.63388670772221, "peer_archived_score": 44.14050985302732, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 251, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "O Marco Legal de Inteligência Artificial é uma iniciativa legislativa no Brasil que visa regular o desenvolvimento e uso da IA no país. Ele busca estabelecer diretrizes éticas, técnicas e legais para o uso responsável da tecnologia, promovendo inovação enquanto mitiga riscos.\n\nO processo legislativo inclui discussão em comissões temáticas, ajustes no texto-base e aprovação em plenário.\n\nO projeto de lei foi introduzido no Congresso Nacional em 2021. Desde então, passou por diversas discussões e alterações em comissões. \n\nO Senado aprovou na data de 10 de Dezembro de 2024 o projeto que regulamenta a inteligência artificial (IA) no Brasil. A matéria segue agora para a análise da Câmara dos Deputados. O texto se apresenta como um marco regulatório com regras para o desenvolvimento e o uso de sistemas de IA. Entre os dispositivos está um que prevê a proteção dos direitos dos criadores de conteúdo e obras artísticas. A votação foi conduzida pelo senador Weverton (PDT-MA).\n\nO texto aprovado nesta terça-feira é um [substitutivo](/noticias/glossario-legislativo/substitutivo) do senador Eduardo Gomes (PL-TO) que tem como base o [PL 2.338/2023](https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/atividade/materias/-/materia/157233), projeto de lei apresentado por Rodrigo Pacheco, presidente do Senado. E esse projeto, por sua vez, surgiu a partir de um anteprojeto elaborado por uma comissão de juristas\n\nFonte: [Agência Senado](https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/materias/2024/12/10/senado-aprova-regulamentacao-da-inteligencia-artificial-texto-vai-a-camara)\n\n[G1](https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/12/05/senado-aprova-regras-para-inteligencia-artificial-no-brasil.ghtml)\n\n[Votação da regulamentação da inteligência artificial deve ficar para o ano que vem](https://valor.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/12/11/votacao-da-regulamentacao-da-inteligencia-artificial-deve-ficar-para-o-ano-que-vem.ghtml)" }, { "id": 31200, "title": "Will at least part of Canada become a U.S. state before January 21, 2033?", "short_title": "Will Canada become a U.S. state before Jan 21, 2033?", "url_title": "Will Canada become a U.S. state before Jan 21, 2033?", "slug": "will-canada-become-a-us-state-before-jan-21-2033", "author_id": 125547, "author_username": "rob.louis", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-25T22:04:16.212976Z", "published_at": "2025-01-14T21:59:14.501097Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T00:25:54.754017Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-14T21:59:14.501095Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-19T08:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-21T08:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-16T21:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30889, "title": "Will at least part of Canada become a U.S. state before January 21, 2033?", "created_at": "2024-12-25T22:04:16.213375Z", "open_time": "2025-01-16T21:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-19T21:59:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-19T21:59:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-21T08:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-19T08:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-01-19T08:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President-elect Donald Trump has been recently [posting on social media](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113715171941661598) about Canada becoming the 51st U..S. state.\n\nThe state admission process is outlined in the constitution [Article IV, Section 3, Clause 1](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/article-3/#article-3-section-3-clause-1):\n\n> New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or Parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.\n\n[Polling conducted in Canada](https://www.newsweek.com/canada-51st-us-american-state-how-canadians-feel-poll-2002702) suggest low domestic support for the idea, as of early December, 2024.\n\nSupport within Canada for annexation by the US [goes as far back as 1837 and is as recent as 2018, under \"Parti 51\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movements_for_the_annexation_of_Canada_to_the_United_States) (who received 0.02% of the popular vote in Quebec).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2033, the President of the United States signs a resolution or act recognizing a new state added to the Union whose territory, in part or in whole, belonged to Canada as of 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31200, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757377544.144538, "end_time": 1762378796.877376, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757377544.144538, "end_time": 1762378796.877376, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02967604156905122 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.422729069143678, 2.2463555254153995, 1.614967829950016, 0.0, 0.46702259418086334, 0.6803385023255489, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President-elect Donald Trump has been recently [posting on social media](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113715171941661598) about Canada becoming the 51st U..S. state.\n\nThe state admission process is outlined in the constitution [Article IV, Section 3, Clause 1](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/article-3/#article-3-section-3-clause-1):\n\n> New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or Parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.\n\n[Polling conducted in Canada](https://www.newsweek.com/canada-51st-us-american-state-how-canadians-feel-poll-2002702) suggest low domestic support for the idea, as of early December, 2024.\n\nSupport within Canada for annexation by the US [goes as far back as 1837 and is as recent as 2018, under \"Parti 51\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movements_for_the_annexation_of_Canada_to_the_United_States) (who received 0.02% of the popular vote in Quebec)." }, { "id": 31193, "title": "Will at least 25% of the population participate in formal and non-formal learning?", "short_title": "Participation in formal and non-formal learning", "url_title": "Participation in formal and non-formal learning", "slug": "participation-in-formal-and-non-formal-learning", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-24T15:56:08.988118Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T20:34:50.457997Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.067783Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-12T20:34:50.457995Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } } }, "question": { "id": 30885, "title": "Will at least 25% of the population participate in formal and non-formal learning?", "created_at": "2024-12-24T15:56:08.988540Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T20:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T20:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is one of the two included in [this indicator](https://tamm.stat.ee/kategooriad/eesti-areng/tulemusvaldkonnad/haridus/indikaatorid/178?lang=en). The most recent values as of the end of 2024 are:\n\n* 2022: 21.1%\n* 2023: 23.2%", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the responsible organ of the Government of the Republic of Estonia reports that the percentage of residents who have participated in formal and non-formal learning in the four weeks preceding the relevant survey is greater than or equal to 25%.", "fine_print": "* The population considered is people aged between 25 and 64.\n* Formal learning provides the core knowledge, skills and competences that are recognized in the society, where their acquisition is usually formally assessed (preprimary and basic education; general and vocational education; higher education including master's and doctoral studies).\n* Non-formal learning is based on specific training programs and intended for specific groups (occupational training, language learning, art classes etc.).", "post_id": 31193, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741234674.574832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741234674.574832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is one of the two included in [this indicator](https://tamm.stat.ee/kategooriad/eesti-areng/tulemusvaldkonnad/haridus/indikaatorid/178?lang=en). The most recent values as of the end of 2024 are:\n\n* 2022: 21.1%\n* 2023: 23.2%" }, { "id": 31192, "title": "Will more than 65% of energy come from renewable sources?", "short_title": "Renewable energy", "url_title": "Renewable energy", "slug": "renewable-energy", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-24T15:43:36.148023Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T20:36:26.806737Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.660592Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-12T20:36:26.806734Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2038-02-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:35:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } } }, "question": { "id": 30884, "title": "Will more than 65% of energy come from renewable sources?", "created_at": "2024-12-24T15:43:36.148377Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:35:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T20:35:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T20:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2038-02-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[This indicator](https://tamm.stat.ee/kategooriad/eesti-areng/tulemusvaldkonnad/energeetika/indikaatorid/205?lang=en) is about renewable energy. The most recent values as of the end of 2024 are:\n\n* 2021: 38.0%\n* 2022: 38.5%", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the responsible organ of the Government of the Republic of Estonia reports that the share of renewable energy in final energy consumption is greater than 65%.", "fine_print": "* Renewable energy is energy from non-fossil sources: wind, solar, geothermal, wave and tidal energy, hydropower, biomass, landfill gas, gas from wastewater treatment and biogas.\n* Nuclear energy, which is currently not produced in Estonia, seems to be excluded from the definition, even though it is not from fossil sources.\n* Final energy consumption refers to the consumption of energy that is obtained and consumed after all interim conversions into other forms of energy (electricity, heat, fuel).\n* Final consumption excludes the use of fuel as a raw material, power plant consumption and losses.", "post_id": 31192, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[This indicator](https://tamm.stat.ee/kategooriad/eesti-areng/tulemusvaldkonnad/energeetika/indikaatorid/205?lang=en) is about renewable energy. The most recent values as of the end of 2024 are:\n\n* 2021: 38.0%\n* 2022: 38.5%" }, { "id": 31191, "title": "Will at least 80% of the population take part in cultural activities?", "short_title": "Participation in cultural activities", "url_title": "Participation in cultural activities", "slug": "participation-in-cultural-activities", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-24T15:17:41.066580Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T20:36:13.015711Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.192740Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-12T20:36:13.015709Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:35:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30883, "title": "Will at least 80% of the population take part in cultural activities?", "created_at": "2024-12-24T15:17:41.066932Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:35:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T20:35:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T20:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[This indicator](https://tamm.stat.ee/kategooriad/eesti-areng/tulemusvaldkonnad/kultuur/indikaatorid/170?lang=en) is part of the Society section of the Estonia 2035 development plan. It is based on the share of the population aged 15 and over who participates in cultural activities.\n\nThe most recent values as of the end of 2024 are:\n\n* 2020: 73.8%\n* 2023: 79.0%", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the responsible organ of the Government of the Republic of Estonia reports that the percentage of residents that have participated in cultural activities during 2035 is greater than or equal to 80%.", "fine_print": "* Only residents aged 15 and above are considered.\n* Sports competitions are not considered cultural activities for the purposes of this question.", "post_id": 31191, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[This indicator](https://tamm.stat.ee/kategooriad/eesti-areng/tulemusvaldkonnad/kultuur/indikaatorid/170?lang=en) is part of the Society section of the Estonia 2035 development plan. It is based on the share of the population aged 15 and over who participates in cultural activities.\n\nThe most recent values as of the end of 2024 are:\n\n* 2020: 73.8%\n* 2023: 79.0%" }, { "id": 31190, "title": "Will at least 94% of the population consider Estonia a safe country?", "short_title": "Residents who consider Estonia safe", "url_title": "Residents who consider Estonia safe", "slug": "residents-who-consider-estonia-safe", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-24T14:59:31.742481Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T20:21:46.121056Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.039741Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-12T20:21:46.121054Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-07-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:21:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30882, "title": "Will at least 94% of the population consider Estonia a safe country?", "created_at": "2024-12-24T14:59:31.742918Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:21:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T20:21:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T20:21:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-07-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[This indicator](https://tamm.stat.ee/kategooriad/eesti-areng/tulemusvaldkonnad/julgeolek-ja-riigikaitse/indikaatorid/172?lang=en) is a part of the Base Principles section of the Estonia 2035 development plan. It is based on the share of the population who consider Estonia a safe country.\n\nThe most recent values as of the end of 2024 are:\n\n* 2022: 90%\n* 2024: 88%", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the responsible organ of the Government of the Republic of Estonia reports that the percentage of residents that consider Estonia a safe country is greater than or equal to 94%.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31190, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[This indicator](https://tamm.stat.ee/kategooriad/eesti-areng/tulemusvaldkonnad/julgeolek-ja-riigikaitse/indikaatorid/172?lang=en) is a part of the Base Principles section of the Estonia 2035 development plan. It is based on the share of the population who consider Estonia a safe country.\n\nThe most recent values as of the end of 2024 are:\n\n* 2022: 90%\n* 2024: 88%" }, { "id": 31176, "title": "Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?", "short_title": "Realistic deepfake genAI videos before 2030?", "url_title": "Realistic deepfake genAI videos before 2030?", "slug": "realistic-deepfake-genai-videos-before-2030", "author_id": 145394, "author_username": "Haiku", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-24T08:18:43.618703Z", "published_at": "2025-01-03T07:13:02.219378Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T02:51:00.122802Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-03T07:13:02.219375Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32619, "name": "AI Warning Shots", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-warning-signs", "description": "# Welcome to the AI Warning Signs community!\r\n\r\nThis community tracks the likelihood of events that may *signal an increase in AI risk*, or *increase the signal of AI risk* to policymakers and the general public.\r\n\r\nSuch warning signs may take the form of surprising capabilities, dangerous behaviors, or major incidents that are a result of the development and deployment of advanced AI systems.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Questions that appear here will also be mirrored on* [*Manifold*](https://manifold.markets/home?q=ai%20warning%20signs\\&s=score\\&f=open\\&ct=ALL\\&p=0\\&fy=1\\&mt=00000\\&sw=0)*.*", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 145394, "username": "Haiku", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32619, "name": "AI Warning Shots", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-warning-signs", "description": "# Welcome to the AI Warning Signs community!\r\n\r\nThis community tracks the likelihood of events that may *signal an increase in AI risk*, or *increase the signal of AI risk* to policymakers and the general public.\r\n\r\nSuch warning signs may take the form of surprising capabilities, dangerous behaviors, or major incidents that are a result of the development and deployment of advanced AI systems.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Questions that appear here will also be mirrored on* [*Manifold*](https://manifold.markets/home?q=ai%20warning%20signs\\&s=score\\&f=open\\&ct=ALL\\&p=0\\&fy=1\\&mt=00000\\&sw=0)*.*", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 145394, "username": "Haiku", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30880, "title": "Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-12-24T08:18:43.619123Z", "open_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-18T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Deepfakes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepfake) are a prime example of an AI technology that has been closely scrutinized by the public, media, and governments for its obvious potential for harm. Deepfake images, audio, and video have existed for many years, and today, good examples of each are often [indistinguishable](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2451958824001714) to the general public.\n\nDeepfake video tools remain limited or difficult to use, while generative AI video has allowed extreme variance of output with only a text prompt (though these outputs are still easily distinguishable from reality). This question asks whether generative AI video will replicate the realism of deepfake videos for short clips, and will be widely accessible before 2030.", "resolution_criteria": "More lengthy and precise alternate title: Before 2030, will a tool be broadly accessible which allows unskilled users to generate 10 seconds of realistic AI video of a human subject from 3 or fewer images and a text prompt?\n\nThis question will resolve YES if ALL of these criteria are met before January 1, 2030, and will resolve NO otherwise.\n\n1. A tool exists which is able to take as input 3 or fewer images and a text prompt, and output a generated video that faithfully corresponds to the given inputs.\n2. The generated video is able to be at least 10 seconds long at a resolution of at least 720p\n3. The input and output are able to correspond to the likenesses of real persons.\n4. The generated video is indistinguishable from reality while featuring the likeness of at least one real person who is performing some action, such that individuals who know the human subject are unable to identify the video as fake at a rate statistically better than chance.\n5. The tool is widely accessible (whether that be online, or as an app, or via download).", "fine_print": "1. The output need not include audio.\n2. The tool could take any combination of inputs, so long as it is sufficient to supply 1 or 2 or 3 images and some kind of rich description of the output. (e.g. verbal audio description is fine too.)\n3. The specified level of quality must be achievable in at least 1 out of every 10 generations on average.\n4. Whether the tool is geofenced will not affect resolution.\n5. The tool (or the version of it with those capabilities) may be behind a paywall, but if so, the cost must be below $50/month in 2025 USD. A limited-access preview does not count.\n6. If a potentially qualifying tool exists and no study is done on how convincing its outputs are, this question may resolve based on media reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If such reports do not exist, the moderator of this community may resolve the question based on generally agreed-upon ✨vibes✨.\n7. The question may be retroactively resolved to the date at which the tool became widely available, so long as the information for resolution comes to light before 2030.", "post_id": 31176, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757213449.520479, "end_time": 1761418261.233244, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757213449.520479, "end_time": 1761418261.233244, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9713437144336466 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 2.229342656648045 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Deepfakes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepfake) are a prime example of an AI technology that has been closely scrutinized by the public, media, and governments for its obvious potential for harm. Deepfake images, audio, and video have existed for many years, and today, good examples of each are often [indistinguishable](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2451958824001714) to the general public.\n\nDeepfake video tools remain limited or difficult to use, while generative AI video has allowed extreme variance of output with only a text prompt (though these outputs are still easily distinguishable from reality). This question asks whether generative AI video will replicate the realism of deepfake videos for short clips, and will be widely accessible before 2030." }, { "id": 31151, "title": "Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?", "short_title": "US Port Workers Strike Before February 1, 2025?", "url_title": "US Port Workers Strike Before February 1, 2025?", "slug": "us-port-workers-strike-before-february-1-2025", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-21T20:06:34.152633Z", "published_at": "2025-01-03T14:58:38.881384Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.548915Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-03T14:58:38.881382Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T12:33:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-03T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 335, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32559, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_TqQCKYL.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-12-11T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-03T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-03T20:11:36.362514Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-08T06:50:47.494484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32559, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_TqQCKYL.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-12-11T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-03T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-03T20:11:36.362514Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-08T06:50:47.494484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30877, "title": "Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-21T20:06:34.153034Z", "open_time": "2025-01-03T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-05T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-05T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T12:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-01T12:34:22.248574Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 1, 2024, [45,000 port workers at 36 U.S. ports](https://advocacy.calchamber.com/2024/10/01/east-coast-gulf-ports-on-strike-as-of-october-1-economic-stakes-high/) in the East and Gulf coasts [went on strike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_port_strike) demanding, besides a pay rise, a [complete ban on automation](https://apnews.com/article/port-strike-ila-dockworkers-begins-e5468e760f46a64e4322d1702beb1f72). The strike was suspended two days later, with the current contract between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) provisionally extended until January 15, 2025.\n\nNegotiations between ILA and USMX have so far [proven fruitless](https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/will-ila-strike-january-experts-respond-usmx-negotiations/735862/). President-elect Donald Trump has signaled [support for the union](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-automation-causes-more-harm-longshoremen-than-its-worth-2024-12-12/) in the dispute.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a strike by ILA workers has begun before February 1, 2025 EST.", "fine_print": "* An announcement of an impending strike would not be sufficient to resolve this question. If a strike begins and is later stopped for whatever reason, this question will still resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 31151, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738385828.762499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 331, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738385828.762499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 331, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.18993131608655617 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.778374895222075, 2.2739800192050814, 0.1662424908994875, 0.04375285696244169, 0.11045017890216005, 0.05016388635035995, 0.006617819976634728, 0.18823009680311772, 4.010002510731327e-07, 0.19389240870407987, 0.37976031272857913, 0.509260422490539, 0.0953380936344004, 0.026432623401431404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08503313899455334, 0.0, 0.07243112315056605, 0.00016549452948659722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5613657077333095, 0.00015697495830123726, 0.23218870182681292, 1.7690480257911826e-07, 0.0, 0.050768172584966464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6970830442456815, 0.00494535428224378, 0.0, 0.00842124555381604, 0.0, 0.18805711751032436, 0.0, 0.00011997178009073915, 0.0, 0.588673448429341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4537988035417694e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4658029296539135, 1.3493204714761275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9652694714942875e-07, 0.0002629541100286737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00406708863653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6407178764045508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35495280940385504, 0.0, 0.00014110216640028788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05344683400036802, 0.4963123988526913, 0.0, 0.2464614283775045, 0.0, 0.07399791967340792, 0.08948613690627347, 0.0067212196769795, 0.0, 0.372039642481961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.423463563259257 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.35550950209287, "peer_score": 22.28046784996192, "coverage": 0.9867288360046007, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9867288360046007, "spot_peer_score": 19.854792870274142, "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 71.35550950209287, "peer_archived_score": 22.28046784996192, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.854792870274142, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 647, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 1, 2024, [45,000 port workers at 36 U.S. ports](https://advocacy.calchamber.com/2024/10/01/east-coast-gulf-ports-on-strike-as-of-october-1-economic-stakes-high/) in the East and Gulf coasts [went on strike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_port_strike) demanding, besides a pay rise, a [complete ban on automation](https://apnews.com/article/port-strike-ila-dockworkers-begins-e5468e760f46a64e4322d1702beb1f72). The strike was suspended two days later, with the current contract between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) provisionally extended until January 15, 2025.\n\nNegotiations between ILA and USMX have so far [proven fruitless](https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/will-ila-strike-january-experts-respond-usmx-negotiations/735862/). President-elect Donald Trump has signaled [support for the union](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-automation-causes-more-harm-longshoremen-than-its-worth-2024-12-12/) in the dispute." }, { "id": 31134, "title": "Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025?", "short_title": "Next step for psychedelic mental health US approval in 2025?", "url_title": "Next step for psychedelic mental health US approval in 2025?", "slug": "next-step-for-psychedelic-mental-health-us-approval-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-20T10:42:22.182665Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:18:14.009430Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T05:37:18.178947Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:18:14.009428Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:18:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 204, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30860, "title": "Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-20T10:42:22.183010Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:18:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T20:18:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T20:18:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In August of 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [declined to approved MDMA as a treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-rejects-psychedelic-mdma-assisted-therapy-ptsd-rcna165531) Prior to the approval MDMA was [often touted as a potentially promising treatment](https://www.psychiatrist.com/news/mdma-assisted-therapy-may-be-the-next-frontier-in-ptsd-treatment/), but ultimately the drug [faced a number of concerns](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/353752/mdma-fda-approval-hearing-lykos-blinding-misconduct-allegations) about its efficacy results that led to its denial.\n\nOther psychedelic drugs [are in the midst of trials](https://psychedelicalpha.com/data/psychedelic-drug-development-tracker), but trials can often be lengthy and may not produce the necessary results in time for a submission in 2025. [Other possible pathways](https://ondrugs.substack.com/p/the-eua-psychedelics-backdoor-cracks) to psychedelic medical use could include an emergency use authorization (EUA) or federal rescheduling under the Controlled Substances Act.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the following happens after December 31, 2024 before January 1, 2026:\n\n* A New Drug Application (NDA) for the treatment of a mental disorder (as defined by the [Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Illnesses](https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/articles/24291-diagnostic-and-statistical-manual-dsm-5), the DSM-5) is filed to the FDA for a psychedelic.\n* An application for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the treatment of a mental disorder (as defined by the DSM-5) is filed to the FDA for a psychedelic.\n* The DEA reschedules any psychedelic under the U.S. Controlled Substances Act to a less restrictive schedule (e.g., from Schedule I to Schedule II).\n\nFor the purposes of this questions, a psychedelic is defined broadly and includes:\n\n* psychedelic indolealkylamines(e.g. LSD, psilocybin, DMT)\n* psychedelic phenylethylamines (e.g. mescaline, MDMA, the 2C series)\n* arylcycloalkylamines with psychedelic or dissociative effects (e.g. PCP, ketamine)\n* Salvinorin A\n\nCannabinoids (e.g. THC) are *not* considered psychedelics for the purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "The NDA or EUA application do not need to be accepted, simply filed.", "post_id": 31134, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757914628.009284, "end_time": 1759539546.837, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.013 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757914628.009284, "end_time": 1759539546.837, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.013 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.058599737000914164 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.24016297019401875, 3.5482474842730944, 0.6894503464557418, 1.6536671832472556, 0.5041325266029, 2.432200043804484, 1.38936018830662, 0.594696246351195, 0.269118451379457, 0.0, 1.465545336186855, 0.3799865051470265, 0.0450032524825526, 0.05525636811184299, 0.0, 0.07116425154097604, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.054969296976803916, 0.0, 0.9598570406402784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08023668698929762, 0.0, 0.04059264133585082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001896113161810545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02334530670111975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 422, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In August of 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [declined to approved MDMA as a treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-rejects-psychedelic-mdma-assisted-therapy-ptsd-rcna165531) Prior to the approval MDMA was [often touted as a potentially promising treatment](https://www.psychiatrist.com/news/mdma-assisted-therapy-may-be-the-next-frontier-in-ptsd-treatment/), but ultimately the drug [faced a number of concerns](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/353752/mdma-fda-approval-hearing-lykos-blinding-misconduct-allegations) about its efficacy results that led to its denial.\n\nOther psychedelic drugs [are in the midst of trials](https://psychedelicalpha.com/data/psychedelic-drug-development-tracker), but trials can often be lengthy and may not produce the necessary results in time for a submission in 2025. [Other possible pathways](https://ondrugs.substack.com/p/the-eua-psychedelics-backdoor-cracks) to psychedelic medical use could include an emergency use authorization (EUA) or federal rescheduling under the Controlled Substances Act.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31130, "title": "Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?", "short_title": "Major Components of ACA Repealed Before 2026?", "url_title": "Major Components of ACA Repealed Before 2026?", "slug": "major-components-of-aca-repealed-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-19T22:45:24.844144Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:15:41Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T00:13:05.157270Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:15:41Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1059, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T14:11:54.346074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30857, "title": "Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-19T22:45:24.844503Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The[ <u>Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordable_Care_Act) (PPACA), signed into law in the US in 2010 and commonly known as the ACA (or as Obamacare), has been subject to a[ <u>number of attempts by Republicans to repeal it</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efforts_to_repeal_the_Affordable_Care_Act). While attempts at repeal were ultimately unsuccessful, the law has been subject to[ <u>a number of limitations and changes</u>](https://www.kff.org/health-policy-101-the-affordable-care-act/?entry=table-of-contents-how-has-the-aca-changed-since-it-was-first-passed) imposed by subsequent court rulings and laws.\n\nFollowing President-elect Donald Trump's election victory in November 2024 along with Republican control of Congress, there has been a great deal of[ <u>speculation</u>](https://www.kff.org/quick-take/what-would-trump-do-with-the-aca-its-hard-to-tell-for-sure/) regarding the future of the ACA. In his first term Trump was[ <u>critical of the ACA</u>](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/918797009133465600) and[ <u>advocated</u>](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-signing-executive-order-promoting-healthcare-choice-competition/#:~:text=And%20we%E2%80%99re%20going%20to%20also%20pressure%20Congress%20very%20strongly%20to%20finish%20the%20repeal%20and%20the%20replace%20of%20Obamacare%20once%20and%20for%20all.%20We%20will%20have%20great%20healthcare%20in%20our%20country.) for it to be repealed and replaced. More recently on the campaign trail Trump has continued to[ <u>criticize the ACA</u>](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1728511466037485668), but has somewhat softened his stance by saying \"[<u>I'm not running to terminate the ACA. . .</u>](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112163485572377413)\" and instead focusing on reforms to improve the program and cut costs. House Speaker Mike Johnson has also[ <u>recently called for reforms to the ACA</u>](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-johnson-criticizes-obamacare-promises-massive-reform-trump-win-rcna177853).\n\nA number of Republican reforms to the ACA have been proposed in recent years following attempts at larger repeal, most of which have abandoned full repeal and instead aim to implement a range of reforms. Some of the published proposals are:\n\n* [<u>Proposals from chapter 14 about the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)</u>](https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_CHAPTER-14.pdf) from the[ <u>Project 2025 Policy Agenda</u>](https://www.project2025.org/policy/)\n* The Republican Study Committee's[ <u>FY 2025 Budget Proposal</u>](https://hern.house.gov/uploadedfiles/final_budget_including_letter_web_version.pdf#page=87)\n* A[ <u>2023 opinion piece</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/4-ways-repeal-obamacare) by former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal\n* A[ <u>paper from the Paragon Health Institute</u>](https://paragoninstitute.org/private-health/the-great-obamacare-enrollment-fraud/), a health policy research institute run by[ <u>Brian Blase</u>](https://paragoninstitute.org/profile/brian-blase/), former economic policy advisor during Trump's first term\n\nThe ACA is lengthy and complex, but the Republican proposals generally focus on a few key aspects, described below alongside other potential targets:\n\n* **Reducing Medicaid eligibility and expenses:** The ACA expanded federal Medicaid eligibility to households with income of 133% of the federal poverty line or less ([<u>see ACA Section 2001</u>](https://www.congress.gov/111/plaws/publ148/PLAW-111publ148.pdf), effectively this threshold is [<u>138%</u>](https://www.healthcare.gov/medicaid-chip/medicaid-expansion-and-you/) after accounting for other income adjustments in the law). However, Medicaid is administered through the states with some funding supplied by the federal government. The ACA was structured to tie federal funding to this expansion, but in [*<u>NFIB v. Sebelius</u>*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Federation_of_Independent_Business_v._Sebelius) the Supreme Court decided that the law amounted to an invalid coercion of states and therefore the Medicaid expansion must be voluntary. Republican proposals to change this tend to view the federal Medicaid spending as excessive and wasteful, and argue for limitations on eligibility, such as via work requirements, more flexibility for states to determine eligibility, and changes to federal funding that reduce federal spending.\n* **Limiting premium tax credits:** The ACA implemented tax credits for households with earnings from 100% to 400% of the federal poverty line to offset costs for qualified healthcare plans. Republican plans have proposed narrowing eligibility, reducing subsidy amounts, or allowing subsidies to be redirected to health savings accounts (HSAs) or insurance plans that do not comply with ACA requirements.\n* **Fully eliminating the individual mandate:** The ACA mandated that individuals must have health insurance, and imposed a penalty for those without insurance. The [<u>2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act set that penalty to zero</u>](https://www.healthinsurance.org/glossary/individual-mandate/), effectively reducing the legal force behind the mandate. However, the mandate itself is still law, despite there being no penalty associated with it.\n* **Limiting the employer mandate:** The ACA [<u>mandated that employers of certain sizes must offer health insurance coverage to their employees</u>](https://www.cigna.com/employers/insights/informed-on-reform/employer-mandate), and imposed penalties for non-compliance. This mandate is still in effect.\n* **Eliminating restrictions on subsidies and plan eligibility:** The premium tax credits and other subsidies under the ACA are generally only eligible for healthcare plans that satisfy certain criteria set forth in the ACA. Republicans [<u>have proposed</u>](https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2024/11/21/nx-s1-5198483/trump-republicans-obamacare-aca-medicaid) allowing the use of subsidies for plans that do not comply with the ACA, or for contributions to Health Savings Accounts.\n* **Eliminating restrictions on medical underwriting:** [<u>Medical underwriting</u>](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/medical-underwriting.asp) is the practice of insurers determining health plan eligibility and pricing based on the health characteristics of individuals or groups. The ACA prohibited medical underwriting in most cases for health insurance with the exception of [<u>consideration</u>](https://www.healthcare.gov/how-plans-set-your-premiums/) of age, location, tobacco use, family status, and plan category. It also prohibited denial of coverage for pre-existing conditions. The [<u>Republican Study Committee</u>](https://hern.house.gov/uploadedfiles/final_budget_including_letter_web_version.pdf#page=87) proposal would expand the ability of insurers to use medical underwriting, arguing that the current limitations cause younger, healthier individuals to face larger health insurance expenses.\n\nWhile Republicans do not have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, they could pursue significant changes through budget reconciliation, a legislative process requiring only a simple majority in the Senate. Reconciliation was previously used in 2017 to attempt to repeal parts of the ACA, including Medicaid expansion and premium subsidies, but the effort ultimately [<u>failed by a narrow margin</u>](https://www.npr.org/2017/07/27/539907467/senate-careens-toward-high-drama-midnight-health-care-vote). Generally only [<u>changes to law that impact certain classifications of federal spending</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation) can be accomplished with reconciliation, and [<u>typically</u>](https://www.pgpf.org/article/what-is-budget-reconciliation/) only once per year.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States has enacted one or more bills that changes at least three of the six following components of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to either repeal or curtail them (see the fine print for fuller details):\n\n* Eliminates or reduces the ACA's Medicaid eligibility or federal funding\n* Eliminates or reduces the premium tax credit eligibility or amount\n* Eliminates or curtails the individual mandate (by law the individual mandate still exists in the ACA, but has no penalty)\n* Eliminates or curtails the mandate for certain employers to provide health coverage for employees. Reducing the penalties will also be considered to be relaxing the mandate.\n* Makes it so that ACA subsidies are no longer limited to plans that satisfy the requirements specified in the ACA, including allowing ACA subsidies to be contributed to health savings accounts or similar account\n* Eliminates or curtails medical underwriting restrictions", "fine_print": "Below find an expanded description of the above six criteria with the criteria used to determine if each has occurred:\n\n* One or more of the following changes to Medicaid is implemented\n * Rescinding or reducing federal Medicaid eligibility below 133% of the federal poverty line (effectively 138% of the federal poverty line)\n * Rescinding or reducing the federal medical assistance percentage (FMAP) for newly eligible recipients for states which have expanded Medicaid\n * Reducing or capping the overall amount of Medicaid funding provided under the ACA\n * Imposing new federal requirements on Medicaid eligibility, such as work requirements, that have the effect of reducing the number of people who are currently eligible for Medicaid\n* One or more of the following changes is made to premium tax credits\n * Reducing taxpayer eligibility for the credits (the ACA specified that taxpayers with household incomes ranging between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty line were eligible, so a reduction would be narrowing that range by either increasing the minimum eligibility above 100% or lowering the cap below 400%)\n * Reducing or eliminating the premium assistance amount specified in the ACA\n * Imposing additional requirements on premium tax credits that have the effect of reducing the number of people who are currently eligible for premium tax credits\n* The individual mandate is eliminated (by law the individual mandate still exists in the ACA, but has no penalty)\n* Eliminating or relaxing the mandate for certain employers to provide health coverage for employees. Reducing the penalties will also be considered to be relaxing the mandate.\n* Making it so that ACA subsidies are no longer limited to plans that satisfy the requirements specified in the ACA, including allowing ACA subsidies to be contributed to health savings accounts or similar account\n* One or more of the following changes is made to the ACA's medical underwriting restrictions:\n * Eliminating or relaxing the ACA's restriction on excluding individuals with pre-existing conditions\n * Expanding the ability of health insurance issuers to price discriminate or set eligibility requirements based on certain characteristics\n\nThe above criteria need not be met in a single bill. The question will still resolve as **Yes** if multiple bills are enacted that have the combined effect of satisfying the above criteria.\n\nThe ACA is lengthy and complex, and Metaculus will use its judgment to assess legislation that has been passed while also relying on characterizations published in credible sources that Metaculus assesses to be knowledgeable and demonstrate sufficient expertise.\n\nThe expiration of [enhanced subsidies](https://www.kff.org/interactive/how-much-more-would-people-pay-in-premiums-if-the-acas-enhanced-subsidies-expired/) passed in other legislation is immaterial; this question only resolves as **Yes** if the above criteria are met with respect to the text of the ACA.", "post_id": 31130, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757726784.501529, "end_time": 1758300943.619, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757726784.501529, "end_time": 1758300943.619, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.11531343812019089 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9158623562797357, 1.515161800569528, 0.0005809708506462421, 0.6363812546705967, 3.165074439643107, 4.057772339923798, 1.5612147081303505, 1.670135392411932, 2.501917109626844, 1.4456039043627982, 2.3538601859420156, 0.46463867696777783, 0.85687457141095, 0.05813074930930806, 0.2594637825157097, 0.5886833463592294, 0.04408311160659714, 0.1911114187304788, 6.560226408864117e-05, 0.14063361236423522, 0.43503969208156057, 0.0001363932953878635, 0.0, 0.0011626179780184014, 0.0023096348863181036, 0.40469784379554696, 0.1593095817188816, 0.0, 0.2530993779884898, 0.0, 0.30313847847673164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9810286275779885, 0.0, 0.071753393938948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25023079254030683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4645529104183611, 0.0, 0.7869873404968967, 0.0, 0.0, 9.458070095907038e-06, 0.020897215230348282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1464376732992734, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1036583039648156e-05, 0.014241583485817907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059932007069458636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00650255470457845, 0.08692460587220699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08901654445556127 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1836, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The[ <u>Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordable_Care_Act) (PPACA), signed into law in the US in 2010 and commonly known as the ACA (or as Obamacare), has been subject to a[ <u>number of attempts by Republicans to repeal it</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efforts_to_repeal_the_Affordable_Care_Act). While attempts at repeal were ultimately unsuccessful, the law has been subject to[ <u>a number of limitations and changes</u>](https://www.kff.org/health-policy-101-the-affordable-care-act/?entry=table-of-contents-how-has-the-aca-changed-since-it-was-first-passed) imposed by subsequent court rulings and laws.\n\nFollowing President-elect Donald Trump's election victory in November 2024 along with Republican control of Congress, there has been a great deal of[ <u>speculation</u>](https://www.kff.org/quick-take/what-would-trump-do-with-the-aca-its-hard-to-tell-for-sure/) regarding the future of the ACA. In his first term Trump was[ <u>critical of the ACA</u>](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/918797009133465600) and[ <u>advocated</u>](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-signing-executive-order-promoting-healthcare-choice-competition/#:~:text=And%20we%E2%80%99re%20going%20to%20also%20pressure%20Congress%20very%20strongly%20to%20finish%20the%20repeal%20and%20the%20replace%20of%20Obamacare%20once%20and%20for%20all.%20We%20will%20have%20great%20healthcare%20in%20our%20country.) for it to be repealed and replaced. More recently on the campaign trail Trump has continued to[ <u>criticize the ACA</u>](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1728511466037485668), but has somewhat softened his stance by saying \"[<u>I'm not running to terminate the ACA. . .</u>](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112163485572377413)\" and instead focusing on reforms to improve the program and cut costs. House Speaker Mike Johnson has also[ <u>recently called for reforms to the ACA</u>](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-johnson-criticizes-obamacare-promises-massive-reform-trump-win-rcna177853).\n\nA number of Republican reforms to the ACA have been proposed in recent years following attempts at larger repeal, most of which have abandoned full repeal and instead aim to implement a range of reforms. Some of the published proposals are:\n\n* [<u>Proposals from chapter 14 about the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)</u>](https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_CHAPTER-14.pdf) from the[ <u>Project 2025 Policy Agenda</u>](https://www.project2025.org/policy/)\n* The Republican Study Committee's[ <u>FY 2025 Budget Proposal</u>](https://hern.house.gov/uploadedfiles/final_budget_including_letter_web_version.pdf#page=87)\n* A[ <u>2023 opinion piece</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/4-ways-repeal-obamacare) by former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal\n* A[ <u>paper from the Paragon Health Institute</u>](https://paragoninstitute.org/private-health/the-great-obamacare-enrollment-fraud/), a health policy research institute run by[ <u>Brian Blase</u>](https://paragoninstitute.org/profile/brian-blase/), former economic policy advisor during Trump's first term\n\nThe ACA is lengthy and complex, but the Republican proposals generally focus on a few key aspects, described below alongside other potential targets:\n\n* **Reducing Medicaid eligibility and expenses:** The ACA expanded federal Medicaid eligibility to households with income of 133% of the federal poverty line or less ([<u>see ACA Section 2001</u>](https://www.congress.gov/111/plaws/publ148/PLAW-111publ148.pdf), effectively this threshold is [<u>138%</u>](https://www.healthcare.gov/medicaid-chip/medicaid-expansion-and-you/) after accounting for other income adjustments in the law). However, Medicaid is administered through the states with some funding supplied by the federal government. The ACA was structured to tie federal funding to this expansion, but in [*<u>NFIB v. Sebelius</u>*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Federation_of_Independent_Business_v._Sebelius) the Supreme Court decided that the law amounted to an invalid coercion of states and therefore the Medicaid expansion must be voluntary. Republican proposals to change this tend to view the federal Medicaid spending as excessive and wasteful, and argue for limitations on eligibility, such as via work requirements, more flexibility for states to determine eligibility, and changes to federal funding that reduce federal spending.\n* **Limiting premium tax credits:** The ACA implemented tax credits for households with earnings from 100% to 400% of the federal poverty line to offset costs for qualified healthcare plans. Republican plans have proposed narrowing eligibility, reducing subsidy amounts, or allowing subsidies to be redirected to health savings accounts (HSAs) or insurance plans that do not comply with ACA requirements.\n* **Fully eliminating the individual mandate:** The ACA mandated that individuals must have health insurance, and imposed a penalty for those without insurance. The [<u>2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act set that penalty to zero</u>](https://www.healthinsurance.org/glossary/individual-mandate/), effectively reducing the legal force behind the mandate. However, the mandate itself is still law, despite there being no penalty associated with it.\n* **Limiting the employer mandate:** The ACA [<u>mandated that employers of certain sizes must offer health insurance coverage to their employees</u>](https://www.cigna.com/employers/insights/informed-on-reform/employer-mandate), and imposed penalties for non-compliance. This mandate is still in effect.\n* **Eliminating restrictions on subsidies and plan eligibility:** The premium tax credits and other subsidies under the ACA are generally only eligible for healthcare plans that satisfy certain criteria set forth in the ACA. Republicans [<u>have proposed</u>](https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2024/11/21/nx-s1-5198483/trump-republicans-obamacare-aca-medicaid) allowing the use of subsidies for plans that do not comply with the ACA, or for contributions to Health Savings Accounts.\n* **Eliminating restrictions on medical underwriting:** [<u>Medical underwriting</u>](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/medical-underwriting.asp) is the practice of insurers determining health plan eligibility and pricing based on the health characteristics of individuals or groups. The ACA prohibited medical underwriting in most cases for health insurance with the exception of [<u>consideration</u>](https://www.healthcare.gov/how-plans-set-your-premiums/) of age, location, tobacco use, family status, and plan category. It also prohibited denial of coverage for pre-existing conditions. The [<u>Republican Study Committee</u>](https://hern.house.gov/uploadedfiles/final_budget_including_letter_web_version.pdf#page=87) proposal would expand the ability of insurers to use medical underwriting, arguing that the current limitations cause younger, healthier individuals to face larger health insurance expenses.\n\nWhile Republicans do not have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, they could pursue significant changes through budget reconciliation, a legislative process requiring only a simple majority in the Senate. Reconciliation was previously used in 2017 to attempt to repeal parts of the ACA, including Medicaid expansion and premium subsidies, but the effort ultimately [<u>failed by a narrow margin</u>](https://www.npr.org/2017/07/27/539907467/senate-careens-toward-high-drama-midnight-health-care-vote). Generally only [<u>changes to law that impact certain classifications of federal spending</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation) can be accomplished with reconciliation, and [<u>typically</u>](https://www.pgpf.org/article/what-is-budget-reconciliation/) only once per year.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31127, "title": "Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?", "short_title": "Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?", "url_title": "Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?", "slug": "will-novak-djokovic-win-the-australian-open", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-19T21:27:43.050330Z", "published_at": "2025-01-03T15:04:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.202662Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-03T15:04:19Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-24T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-26T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-24T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-03T15:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 299, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32626, "name": "Tom Coupe's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "coupe", "description": "This community as for the forecasting module of UC's FIEC675 class", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 188975, "username": "tco55", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32559, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_TqQCKYL.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-12-11T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-03T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-03T20:11:36.362514Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-08T06:50:47.494484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32559, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_TqQCKYL.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-12-11T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-03T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-03T20:11:36.362514Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-08T06:50:47.494484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30854, "title": "Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?", "created_at": "2024-12-19T21:27:43.050738Z", "open_time": "2025-01-03T15:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-05T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-05T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-24T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-24T17:54:49.919348Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-26T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-24T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Big Four](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_\\(tennis\\)#Big_Four_era) professional tennis players are Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray, known for their dominance in men's singles tennis over the last two decades. Djokovic is the last of the Big Four to remain active after Rafael Nadal's [retirement](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144039-rafael-nadal-loses-in-final-match-of-legendary-tennis-career-at-2024-davis-cup) in November 2024. Federer and Murray [retired](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/tennis/top-stories/last-of-big-four-novak-djokovic-battles-on/articleshow/114155909.cms) in 2022 and 2024, respectively.\n\nDjokovic, at 37 years old and recovering from a [recent injury](https://apnews.com/article/djokovic-atp-finals-injury-2f0342c609dd3da6edb6d0eeb976cc44), is [set to retire](https://www.eurosport.com/tennis/novak-djokovic-2025-season-australian-open-play-full-throttle-future_sto20052372/story.shtml) in 2025 but has said he will go \"full throttle\" including aiming for the title at the 2025 Australian Open. Djokovic [will be coached](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144511-novak-djokovic-will-be-coached-by-andy-murray-through-2025-australian-open) by his fellow Big Four member, Andy Murray. If Djokovic wins, it will be his 100th career title. \n\nThe [Australian Open](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Open), played on a hard surface, is a two-week tennis tournament founded in 1905 that is the first of the four major championships in professional tennis's Grand Slam (the others being the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open). The 2025 Australian Open [is scheduled](https://www.roadtrips.com/tennis-packages/australian-open/schedule/) to begin on Sunday January 12, with the Men's Final scheduled for Sunday January 26, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Novak Djokovic wins the men's singles championship at the 2025 Australian Open.", "fine_print": "If the 2025 Australian Open does not take place and conclude before February 2, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 31127, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737740986.414117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 329, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737740986.414117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 329, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.14920288279006758 ], "histogram": [ [ 24.05616213498837, 0.23844761425626437, 0.008562912542726559, 0.6317362154486379, 0.0009739540461435053, 0.4700496244778276, 0.00043250283960590913, 0.0008724324102558058, 0.0009771544881153843, 0.7619353949620465, 0.28638283326809716, 0.0002839286378258241, 0.00915782304635068, 0.2249660989471561, 6.0539932215216564e-05, 0.9947582124304625, 1.8691612761131738e-07, 0.0018499452383075093, 0.02979896376889421, 0.00010142330859856118, 0.25286072663192305, 0.0005485614045928387, 1.9682669027437825e-06, 0.0, 0.15122046258114366, 0.1254661726837445, 0.012369823129707604, 0.001551849021551971, 0.02684911736040562, 0.0, 0.03637501194197445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09874711713883366, 0.07322763141045069, 0.15935390852251508, 0.022772433017243895, 0.1287461590234647, 0.0, 0.11487188918359259, 0.08278031427504048, 0.0, 0.16320042602583415, 0.0, 0.10516820056026552, 0.0, 0.0003925969651712742, 0.0, 0.00990706873812068, 0.0, 0.061639410732464, 0.08595173414090747, 0.0, 0.07256248741215618, 0.02349746872933452, 0.26996378154755557, 0.04950848565154683, 0.18458173495892244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4884880638442482, 0.0, 0.003666957202023752, 0.048741766534814726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11611212233415075, 0.012096162449504424, 0.046362833882056184, 0.052883018994393745, 0.04951748884442416, 0.005026031519696925, 0.00026418466502757, 0.0, 0.12543360013568708, 0.5983438085016728, 0.0, 0.27865791751136504, 0.0, 0.0003390152107488362, 0.4623645731013257, 0.01342425693815471, 0.17516271178045056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7068858750001873, 0.008897817275929174, 0.028902198101211488, 0.024481052579338906, 0.0, 0.04694166987208498, 0.0, 0.033013613824786715, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243995093775881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8969787576197259 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 68.72677347728717, "peer_score": 16.120514902941753, "coverage": 0.9093903198732524, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9977640586111047, "spot_peer_score": 20.4439472558167, "spot_baseline_score": 69.59938131099001, "baseline_archived_score": 68.72677347728717, "peer_archived_score": 16.120514902941753, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.4439472558167, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 69.59938131099001 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 45, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 601, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Big Four](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_\\(tennis\\)#Big_Four_era) professional tennis players are Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray, known for their dominance in men's singles tennis over the last two decades. Djokovic is the last of the Big Four to remain active after Rafael Nadal's [retirement](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144039-rafael-nadal-loses-in-final-match-of-legendary-tennis-career-at-2024-davis-cup) in November 2024. Federer and Murray [retired](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/tennis/top-stories/last-of-big-four-novak-djokovic-battles-on/articleshow/114155909.cms) in 2022 and 2024, respectively.\n\nDjokovic, at 37 years old and recovering from a [recent injury](https://apnews.com/article/djokovic-atp-finals-injury-2f0342c609dd3da6edb6d0eeb976cc44), is [set to retire](https://www.eurosport.com/tennis/novak-djokovic-2025-season-australian-open-play-full-throttle-future_sto20052372/story.shtml) in 2025 but has said he will go \"full throttle\" including aiming for the title at the 2025 Australian Open. Djokovic [will be coached](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144511-novak-djokovic-will-be-coached-by-andy-murray-through-2025-australian-open) by his fellow Big Four member, Andy Murray. If Djokovic wins, it will be his 100th career title. \n\nThe [Australian Open](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Open), played on a hard surface, is a two-week tennis tournament founded in 1905 that is the first of the four major championships in professional tennis's Grand Slam (the others being the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open). The 2025 Australian Open [is scheduled](https://www.roadtrips.com/tennis-packages/australian-open/schedule/) to begin on Sunday January 12, with the Men's Final scheduled for Sunday January 26, 2025." }, { "id": 31125, "title": "Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023?", "short_title": "Livestock antibiotics sales increased by 0.5% in 2024?", "url_title": "Livestock antibiotics sales increased by 0.5% in 2024?", "slug": "livestock-antibiotics-sales-increased-by-05-in-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-19T13:43:38.235951Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:11:57.879711Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T07:59:26.893068Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:11:57.879708Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:11:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 171, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30853, "title": "Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023?", "created_at": "2024-12-19T13:43:38.236305Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:11:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T20:11:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T20:11:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Approximately 80%](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4638249/) of antibiotics sold in the United States are used in animal agriculture. Concerns about [antibiotic resistance](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22922018/antibiotic-resistance-epidemic-drug-resistant-infections) have [called into question](https://www.nrdc.org/bio/david-wallinga-md/antibiotic-use-remains-far-too-intensive-us-livestock) the widespread treatment of livestock with antibiotics and its potential contribution to the growth in [antibiotic resistant bacteria](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance).\n\nThe US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) publishes an [annual report](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) on antimicrobials sold or distributed to food producing animals. The executive summary reports the following:\n\n> Domestic sales and distribution of medically important antimicrobials approved for use in food-producing animals (Table 2b):\n> - decreased by 2% from 2022 through 2023.- decreased by 37% from 2015 (the year of peak sales) through 2023.\n> - decreased by 35% from 2014 through 2023.\n\nAntibiotics use has been decreasing in various countries:\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/sales-antibiotics-livestock-europe?country=GBR~FRA~DEU~ITA~NLD&tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\" /> \nThe US [saw a similar decrease](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) in 2017, but the numbers have stayed stable since then.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "*Note: This question draws on forthcoming 2024 data to align with the Future Perfect forecast.*\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the 2024 total kilograms of medically important antimicrobial drugs sold or distributed for use in food-producing animals in the US is at least 0.5% higher than the same number for 2023.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve based on the first report by the FDA's Center for Veterinary Medicine that includes the full numbers for 2024. If the CVM does not publish the relevant numbers before April 1, 2026, alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) might be used, as long as they are roughly consistent with the previously released CVM numbers.\n* The relevant number for 2023 was 6,127,991 kg and could be found in CVM's [2023 Summary Report On Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals), II. Data on All Marketed Drugs (3), Table 2a, as the Subtotal of Medically Important drugs. If CVM, or an alternative credible source in case the CVM does not report these, shows a different number when data for 2024 are published, the updated number will be used.\n* If the 2023 number stays at 6,127,991 kg, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the 2024 number is at least 6,158,631 kg.", "post_id": 31125, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757836756.123557, "end_time": 1758289094.132, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757836756.123557, "end_time": 1758289094.132, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5954219489790689 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.663112878837076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18053713695737436, 0.10227296739520486, 0.0, 0.6804397779825782, 0.5236874151830103, 0.0, 0.018996793087590582, 0.0, 1.5269305380407299, 0.19725545985062867, 0.4921655223247876, 0.0, 0.0, 4.369025432280514, 0.0, 0.006447634808499139, 0.0, 0.5090355809216933, 1.1313418100175225, 0.9846065303416179, 0.18044206424386386, 0.25562848828361623, 0.5644485981864586, 0.06552734727732062, 0.1368859382907578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32768716652500174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15032659043345778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 288, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Approximately 80%](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4638249/) of antibiotics sold in the United States are used in animal agriculture. Concerns about [antibiotic resistance](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22922018/antibiotic-resistance-epidemic-drug-resistant-infections) have [called into question](https://www.nrdc.org/bio/david-wallinga-md/antibiotic-use-remains-far-too-intensive-us-livestock) the widespread treatment of livestock with antibiotics and its potential contribution to the growth in [antibiotic resistant bacteria](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance).\n\nThe US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) publishes an [annual report](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) on antimicrobials sold or distributed to food producing animals. The executive summary reports the following:\n\n> Domestic sales and distribution of medically important antimicrobials approved for use in food-producing animals (Table 2b):\n> - decreased by 2% from 2022 through 2023.- decreased by 37% from 2015 (the year of peak sales) through 2023.\n> - decreased by 35% from 2014 through 2023.\n\nAntibiotics use has been decreasing in various countries:\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/sales-antibiotics-livestock-europe?country=GBR~FRA~DEU~ITA~NLD&tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\" /> \nThe US [saw a similar decrease](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) in 2017, but the numbers have stayed stable since then.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31124, "title": "Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024?", "short_title": "Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024?", "url_title": "Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024?", "slug": "will-car-crash-deaths-in-the-us-be-below-40000-for-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-19T13:13:03.544454Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:07:58.545515Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.955367Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:07:58.545513Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-10T11:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:07:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 163, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30852, "title": "Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-19T13:13:03.544819Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T20:07:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T20:07:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-10T11:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-10T11:15:03.648162Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Car crashes are one of the [leading causes of death](https://www.cdc.gov/transportation-safety/about/index.html) in the United States, kiling about 40,000 people each year. This number [saw a significant increase](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813633) during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, but has been consistently falling since the second quarter of 2022. [Research suggests](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2020-fatality-data-show-increased-traffic-fatalities-during-pandemic) the reason for the increase was that drivers during the pandemic engaged in more risky behavior, including speeding, failing to wear seat belts, and driving under the influence of drugs or alcohol. \n\nData from the [National Highway Traffic Safety Administration](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813633) can be seen here:\n\n| Year | Fatalities | Change from previous year |\n| ------ | ---------- | ------------------------- |\n| 2013 | 32,893 | -2.6% |\n| 2014 | 32,744 | -0.5% |\n| 2015 | 35,484 | +8.4% |\n| 2016 | 37,806 | +6.5% |\n| 2017 | 37,473 | -0.9% |\n| 2018 | 36,835 | -1.7% |\n| 2019 | 36,835 | -1.3% |\n| 2020 | 39,007 | +7.3% |\n| 2021 | 43,230 | +10.8% |\n| 2022 | 42,514 | -1.7% |\n| 2023\\* | 40,990 | -3.6% |\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "*Note: This question focuses on **2024** car crash deaths to align with the Future Perfect prediction. See fine print for more.* \n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the first data [published by](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases) the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration show that the total number of traffic fatalities is less than 40,000 for the year 2024.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve based on the first data published by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for the whole year, including preliminary data and statistical projections. For example, the early estimates of traffic fatalities for 2023 were published in [this press release](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2022-traffic-deaths-2023-early-estimates) on April 1, 2024, and the NHTSA estimate was 44,990. \n* Later revisions will not affect the resolution of this question.\n* If the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration does not publish data for 2024 before January 1, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 31124, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740467279.480784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740467279.480784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8417128773903979 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004610343867954063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006023125577405555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00032311369443117276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0056387795649152994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002254848526320542, 0.02404274331180677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07170709860653195, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2204467326042014e-05, 0.00035903505139470957, 0.7596196091891849, 6.212803712384058e-05, 0.7728454599816393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19060181590955075, 0.0, 0.03710732352323906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017117259046446932, 0.0, 0.060920294728108865, 0.0, 0.0005893917770031863, 0.6809340422054055, 0.053399009054225705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01148283190639275, 1.5240624077809675, 0.16974280297134703, 0.5702964788053436, 0.5255044902662914, 0.0, 1.9919026744746202, 0.1377795381970071, 0.056694985448332715, 0.26544631527093765, 0.6701028582915605, 3.9809501679601387, 0.7700513808518333, 0.9375958620177044, 0.5737441313571764, 0.332540620186898, 2.230791654557759, 1.2339285050492326, 0.5552045854530039, 1.3082419902241127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.683791033764687, 0.00945843458658888, 0.0, 2.672534275065666 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 66.67891231907188, "peer_score": 9.9807651273678, "coverage": 0.998160931573003, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.998160931573003, "spot_peer_score": 18.323618623124254, "spot_baseline_score": 56.55971758542251, "baseline_archived_score": 66.67891231907188, "peer_archived_score": 9.9807651273678, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.323618623124254, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 56.55971758542251 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 267, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Car crashes are one of the [leading causes of death](https://www.cdc.gov/transportation-safety/about/index.html) in the United States, kiling about 40,000 people each year. This number [saw a significant increase](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813633) during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, but has been consistently falling since the second quarter of 2022. [Research suggests](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2020-fatality-data-show-increased-traffic-fatalities-during-pandemic) the reason for the increase was that drivers during the pandemic engaged in more risky behavior, including speeding, failing to wear seat belts, and driving under the influence of drugs or alcohol. \n\nData from the [National Highway Traffic Safety Administration](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813633) can be seen here:\n\n| Year | Fatalities | Change from previous year |\n| ------ | ---------- | ------------------------- |\n| 2013 | 32,893 | -2.6% |\n| 2014 | 32,744 | -0.5% |\n| 2015 | 35,484 | +8.4% |\n| 2016 | 37,806 | +6.5% |\n| 2017 | 37,473 | -0.9% |\n| 2018 | 36,835 | -1.7% |\n| 2019 | 36,835 | -1.3% |\n| 2020 | 39,007 | +7.3% |\n| 2021 | 43,230 | +10.8% |\n| 2022 | 42,514 | -1.7% |\n| 2023\\* | 40,990 | -3.6% |\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." } ] }
