Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1380
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Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:56:27.758987Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30857, "title": "Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-19T22:45:24.844503Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The[ <u>Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordable_Care_Act) (PPACA), signed into law in the US in 2010 and commonly known as the ACA (or as Obamacare), has been subject to a[ <u>number of attempts by Republicans to repeal it</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efforts_to_repeal_the_Affordable_Care_Act). While attempts at repeal were ultimately unsuccessful, the law has been subject to[ <u>a number of limitations and changes</u>](https://www.kff.org/health-policy-101-the-affordable-care-act/?entry=table-of-contents-how-has-the-aca-changed-since-it-was-first-passed) imposed by subsequent court rulings and laws.\n\nFollowing President-elect Donald Trump's election victory in November 2024 along with Republican control of Congress, there has been a great deal of[ <u>speculation</u>](https://www.kff.org/quick-take/what-would-trump-do-with-the-aca-its-hard-to-tell-for-sure/) regarding the future of the ACA. In his first term Trump was[ <u>critical of the ACA</u>](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/918797009133465600) and[ <u>advocated</u>](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-signing-executive-order-promoting-healthcare-choice-competition/#:~:text=And%20we%E2%80%99re%20going%20to%20also%20pressure%20Congress%20very%20strongly%20to%20finish%20the%20repeal%20and%20the%20replace%20of%20Obamacare%20once%20and%20for%20all.%20We%20will%20have%20great%20healthcare%20in%20our%20country.) for it to be repealed and replaced. More recently on the campaign trail Trump has continued to[ <u>criticize the ACA</u>](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1728511466037485668), but has somewhat softened his stance by saying \"[<u>I'm not running to terminate the ACA. . .</u>](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112163485572377413)\" and instead focusing on reforms to improve the program and cut costs. House Speaker Mike Johnson has also[ <u>recently called for reforms to the ACA</u>](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-johnson-criticizes-obamacare-promises-massive-reform-trump-win-rcna177853).\n\nA number of Republican reforms to the ACA have been proposed in recent years following attempts at larger repeal, most of which have abandoned full repeal and instead aim to implement a range of reforms. Some of the published proposals are:\n\n* [<u>Proposals from chapter 14 about the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)</u>](https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_CHAPTER-14.pdf) from the[ <u>Project 2025 Policy Agenda</u>](https://www.project2025.org/policy/)\n* The Republican Study Committee's[ <u>FY 2025 Budget Proposal</u>](https://hern.house.gov/uploadedfiles/final_budget_including_letter_web_version.pdf#page=87)\n* A[ <u>2023 opinion piece</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/4-ways-repeal-obamacare) by former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal\n* A[ <u>paper from the Paragon Health Institute</u>](https://paragoninstitute.org/private-health/the-great-obamacare-enrollment-fraud/), a health policy research institute run by[ <u>Brian Blase</u>](https://paragoninstitute.org/profile/brian-blase/), former economic policy advisor during Trump's first term\n\nThe ACA is lengthy and complex, but the Republican proposals generally focus on a few key aspects, described below alongside other potential targets:\n\n* **Reducing Medicaid eligibility and expenses:** The ACA expanded federal Medicaid eligibility to households with income of 133% of the federal poverty line or less ([<u>see ACA Section 2001</u>](https://www.congress.gov/111/plaws/publ148/PLAW-111publ148.pdf), effectively this threshold is [<u>138%</u>](https://www.healthcare.gov/medicaid-chip/medicaid-expansion-and-you/) after accounting for other income adjustments in the law). However, Medicaid is administered through the states with some funding supplied by the federal government. The ACA was structured to tie federal funding to this expansion, but in [*<u>NFIB v. Sebelius</u>*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Federation_of_Independent_Business_v._Sebelius) the Supreme Court decided that the law amounted to an invalid coercion of states and therefore the Medicaid expansion must be voluntary. Republican proposals to change this tend to view the federal Medicaid spending as excessive and wasteful, and argue for limitations on eligibility, such as via work requirements, more flexibility for states to determine eligibility, and changes to federal funding that reduce federal spending.\n* **Limiting premium tax credits:** The ACA implemented tax credits for households with earnings from 100% to 400% of the federal poverty line to offset costs for qualified healthcare plans. Republican plans have proposed narrowing eligibility, reducing subsidy amounts, or allowing subsidies to be redirected to health savings accounts (HSAs) or insurance plans that do not comply with ACA requirements.\n* **Fully eliminating the individual mandate:** The ACA mandated that individuals must have health insurance, and imposed a penalty for those without insurance. The [<u>2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act set that penalty to zero</u>](https://www.healthinsurance.org/glossary/individual-mandate/), effectively reducing the legal force behind the mandate. However, the mandate itself is still law, despite there being no penalty associated with it.\n* **Limiting the employer mandate:** The ACA [<u>mandated that employers of certain sizes must offer health insurance coverage to their employees</u>](https://www.cigna.com/employers/insights/informed-on-reform/employer-mandate), and imposed penalties for non-compliance. This mandate is still in effect.\n* **Eliminating restrictions on subsidies and plan eligibility:** The premium tax credits and other subsidies under the ACA are generally only eligible for healthcare plans that satisfy certain criteria set forth in the ACA. Republicans [<u>have proposed</u>](https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2024/11/21/nx-s1-5198483/trump-republicans-obamacare-aca-medicaid) allowing the use of subsidies for plans that do not comply with the ACA, or for contributions to Health Savings Accounts.\n* **Eliminating restrictions on medical underwriting:** [<u>Medical underwriting</u>](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/medical-underwriting.asp) is the practice of insurers determining health plan eligibility and pricing based on the health characteristics of individuals or groups. The ACA prohibited medical underwriting in most cases for health insurance with the exception of [<u>consideration</u>](https://www.healthcare.gov/how-plans-set-your-premiums/) of age, location, tobacco use, family status, and plan category. It also prohibited denial of coverage for pre-existing conditions. The [<u>Republican Study Committee</u>](https://hern.house.gov/uploadedfiles/final_budget_including_letter_web_version.pdf#page=87) proposal would expand the ability of insurers to use medical underwriting, arguing that the current limitations cause younger, healthier individuals to face larger health insurance expenses.\n\nWhile Republicans do not have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, they could pursue significant changes through budget reconciliation, a legislative process requiring only a simple majority in the Senate. Reconciliation was previously used in 2017 to attempt to repeal parts of the ACA, including Medicaid expansion and premium subsidies, but the effort ultimately [<u>failed by a narrow margin</u>](https://www.npr.org/2017/07/27/539907467/senate-careens-toward-high-drama-midnight-health-care-vote). Generally only [<u>changes to law that impact certain classifications of federal spending</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation) can be accomplished with reconciliation, and [<u>typically</u>](https://www.pgpf.org/article/what-is-budget-reconciliation/) only once per year.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States has enacted one or more bills that changes at least three of the six following components of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to either repeal or curtail them (see the fine print for fuller details):\n\n* Eliminates or reduces the ACA's Medicaid eligibility or federal funding\n* Eliminates or reduces the premium tax credit eligibility or amount\n* Eliminates or curtails the individual mandate (by law the individual mandate still exists in the ACA, but has no penalty)\n* Eliminates or curtails the mandate for certain employers to provide health coverage for employees. Reducing the penalties will also be considered to be relaxing the mandate.\n* Makes it so that ACA subsidies are no longer limited to plans that satisfy the requirements specified in the ACA, including allowing ACA subsidies to be contributed to health savings accounts or similar account\n* Eliminates or curtails medical underwriting restrictions", "fine_print": "Below find an expanded description of the above six criteria with the criteria used to determine if each has occurred:\n\n* One or more of the following changes to Medicaid is implemented\n * Rescinding or reducing federal Medicaid eligibility below 133% of the federal poverty line (effectively 138% of the federal poverty line)\n * Rescinding or reducing the federal medical assistance percentage (FMAP) for newly eligible recipients for states which have expanded Medicaid\n * Reducing or capping the overall amount of Medicaid funding provided under the ACA\n * Imposing new federal requirements on Medicaid eligibility, such as work requirements, that have the effect of reducing the number of people who are currently eligible for Medicaid\n* One or more of the following changes is made to premium tax credits\n * Reducing taxpayer eligibility for the credits (the ACA specified that taxpayers with household incomes ranging between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty line were eligible, so a reduction would be narrowing that range by either increasing the minimum eligibility above 100% or lowering the cap below 400%)\n * Reducing or eliminating the premium assistance amount specified in the ACA\n * Imposing additional requirements on premium tax credits that have the effect of reducing the number of people who are currently eligible for premium tax credits\n* The individual mandate is eliminated (by law the individual mandate still exists in the ACA, but has no penalty)\n* Eliminating or relaxing the mandate for certain employers to provide health coverage for employees. Reducing the penalties will also be considered to be relaxing the mandate.\n* Making it so that ACA subsidies are no longer limited to plans that satisfy the requirements specified in the ACA, including allowing ACA subsidies to be contributed to health savings accounts or similar account\n* One or more of the following changes is made to the ACA's medical underwriting restrictions:\n * Eliminating or relaxing the ACA's restriction on excluding individuals with pre-existing conditions\n * Expanding the ability of health insurance issuers to price discriminate or set eligibility requirements based on certain characteristics\n\nThe above criteria need not be met in a single bill. The question will still resolve as **Yes** if multiple bills are enacted that have the combined effect of satisfying the above criteria.\n\nThe ACA is lengthy and complex, and Metaculus will use its judgment to assess legislation that has been passed while also relying on characterizations published in credible sources that Metaculus assesses to be knowledgeable and demonstrate sufficient expertise.\n\nThe expiration of [enhanced subsidies](https://www.kff.org/interactive/how-much-more-would-people-pay-in-premiums-if-the-acas-enhanced-subsidies-expired/) passed in other legislation is immaterial; this question only resolves as **Yes** if the above criteria are met with respect to the text of the ACA.", "post_id": 31130, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757726784.501529, "end_time": 1758300943.619, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757726784.501529, "end_time": 1758300943.619, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.11531343812019089 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9158623562797357, 1.515161800569528, 0.0005809708506462421, 0.6363812546705967, 3.165074439643107, 4.057772339923798, 1.5612147081303505, 1.670135392411932, 2.501917109626844, 1.4456039043627982, 2.3538601859420156, 0.46463867696777783, 0.85687457141095, 0.05813074930930806, 0.2594637825157097, 0.5886833463592294, 0.04408311160659714, 0.1911114187304788, 6.560226408864117e-05, 0.14063361236423522, 0.43503969208156057, 0.0001363932953878635, 0.0, 0.0011626179780184014, 0.0023096348863181036, 0.40469784379554696, 0.1593095817188816, 0.0, 0.2530993779884898, 0.0, 0.30313847847673164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9810286275779885, 0.0, 0.071753393938948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25023079254030683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4645529104183611, 0.0, 0.7869873404968967, 0.0, 0.0, 9.458070095907038e-06, 0.020897215230348282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1464376732992734, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1036583039648156e-05, 0.014241583485817907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059932007069458636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00650255470457845, 0.08692460587220699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08901654445556127 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1836, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The[ <u>Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordable_Care_Act) (PPACA), signed into law in the US in 2010 and commonly known as the ACA (or as Obamacare), has been subject to a[ <u>number of attempts by Republicans to repeal it</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efforts_to_repeal_the_Affordable_Care_Act). While attempts at repeal were ultimately unsuccessful, the law has been subject to[ <u>a number of limitations and changes</u>](https://www.kff.org/health-policy-101-the-affordable-care-act/?entry=table-of-contents-how-has-the-aca-changed-since-it-was-first-passed) imposed by subsequent court rulings and laws.\n\nFollowing President-elect Donald Trump's election victory in November 2024 along with Republican control of Congress, there has been a great deal of[ <u>speculation</u>](https://www.kff.org/quick-take/what-would-trump-do-with-the-aca-its-hard-to-tell-for-sure/) regarding the future of the ACA. In his first term Trump was[ <u>critical of the ACA</u>](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/918797009133465600) and[ <u>advocated</u>](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-signing-executive-order-promoting-healthcare-choice-competition/#:~:text=And%20we%E2%80%99re%20going%20to%20also%20pressure%20Congress%20very%20strongly%20to%20finish%20the%20repeal%20and%20the%20replace%20of%20Obamacare%20once%20and%20for%20all.%20We%20will%20have%20great%20healthcare%20in%20our%20country.) for it to be repealed and replaced. More recently on the campaign trail Trump has continued to[ <u>criticize the ACA</u>](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1728511466037485668), but has somewhat softened his stance by saying \"[<u>I'm not running to terminate the ACA. . .</u>](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112163485572377413)\" and instead focusing on reforms to improve the program and cut costs. House Speaker Mike Johnson has also[ <u>recently called for reforms to the ACA</u>](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-johnson-criticizes-obamacare-promises-massive-reform-trump-win-rcna177853).\n\nA number of Republican reforms to the ACA have been proposed in recent years following attempts at larger repeal, most of which have abandoned full repeal and instead aim to implement a range of reforms. Some of the published proposals are:\n\n* [<u>Proposals from chapter 14 about the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)</u>](https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_CHAPTER-14.pdf) from the[ <u>Project 2025 Policy Agenda</u>](https://www.project2025.org/policy/)\n* The Republican Study Committee's[ <u>FY 2025 Budget Proposal</u>](https://hern.house.gov/uploadedfiles/final_budget_including_letter_web_version.pdf#page=87)\n* A[ <u>2023 opinion piece</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/4-ways-repeal-obamacare) by former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal\n* A[ <u>paper from the Paragon Health Institute</u>](https://paragoninstitute.org/private-health/the-great-obamacare-enrollment-fraud/), a health policy research institute run by[ <u>Brian Blase</u>](https://paragoninstitute.org/profile/brian-blase/), former economic policy advisor during Trump's first term\n\nThe ACA is lengthy and complex, but the Republican proposals generally focus on a few key aspects, described below alongside other potential targets:\n\n* **Reducing Medicaid eligibility and expenses:** The ACA expanded federal Medicaid eligibility to households with income of 133% of the federal poverty line or less ([<u>see ACA Section 2001</u>](https://www.congress.gov/111/plaws/publ148/PLAW-111publ148.pdf), effectively this threshold is [<u>138%</u>](https://www.healthcare.gov/medicaid-chip/medicaid-expansion-and-you/) after accounting for other income adjustments in the law). However, Medicaid is administered through the states with some funding supplied by the federal government. The ACA was structured to tie federal funding to this expansion, but in [*<u>NFIB v. Sebelius</u>*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Federation_of_Independent_Business_v._Sebelius) the Supreme Court decided that the law amounted to an invalid coercion of states and therefore the Medicaid expansion must be voluntary. Republican proposals to change this tend to view the federal Medicaid spending as excessive and wasteful, and argue for limitations on eligibility, such as via work requirements, more flexibility for states to determine eligibility, and changes to federal funding that reduce federal spending.\n* **Limiting premium tax credits:** The ACA implemented tax credits for households with earnings from 100% to 400% of the federal poverty line to offset costs for qualified healthcare plans. Republican plans have proposed narrowing eligibility, reducing subsidy amounts, or allowing subsidies to be redirected to health savings accounts (HSAs) or insurance plans that do not comply with ACA requirements.\n* **Fully eliminating the individual mandate:** The ACA mandated that individuals must have health insurance, and imposed a penalty for those without insurance. The [<u>2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act set that penalty to zero</u>](https://www.healthinsurance.org/glossary/individual-mandate/), effectively reducing the legal force behind the mandate. However, the mandate itself is still law, despite there being no penalty associated with it.\n* **Limiting the employer mandate:** The ACA [<u>mandated that employers of certain sizes must offer health insurance coverage to their employees</u>](https://www.cigna.com/employers/insights/informed-on-reform/employer-mandate), and imposed penalties for non-compliance. This mandate is still in effect.\n* **Eliminating restrictions on subsidies and plan eligibility:** The premium tax credits and other subsidies under the ACA are generally only eligible for healthcare plans that satisfy certain criteria set forth in the ACA. Republicans [<u>have proposed</u>](https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2024/11/21/nx-s1-5198483/trump-republicans-obamacare-aca-medicaid) allowing the use of subsidies for plans that do not comply with the ACA, or for contributions to Health Savings Accounts.\n* **Eliminating restrictions on medical underwriting:** [<u>Medical underwriting</u>](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/medical-underwriting.asp) is the practice of insurers determining health plan eligibility and pricing based on the health characteristics of individuals or groups. The ACA prohibited medical underwriting in most cases for health insurance with the exception of [<u>consideration</u>](https://www.healthcare.gov/how-plans-set-your-premiums/) of age, location, tobacco use, family status, and plan category. It also prohibited denial of coverage for pre-existing conditions. The [<u>Republican Study Committee</u>](https://hern.house.gov/uploadedfiles/final_budget_including_letter_web_version.pdf#page=87) proposal would expand the ability of insurers to use medical underwriting, arguing that the current limitations cause younger, healthier individuals to face larger health insurance expenses.\n\nWhile Republicans do not have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, they could pursue significant changes through budget reconciliation, a legislative process requiring only a simple majority in the Senate. Reconciliation was previously used in 2017 to attempt to repeal parts of the ACA, including Medicaid expansion and premium subsidies, but the effort ultimately [<u>failed by a narrow margin</u>](https://www.npr.org/2017/07/27/539907467/senate-careens-toward-high-drama-midnight-health-care-vote). Generally only [<u>changes to law that impact certain classifications of federal spending</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation) can be accomplished with reconciliation, and [<u>typically</u>](https://www.pgpf.org/article/what-is-budget-reconciliation/) only once per year.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31127, "title": "Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?", "short_title": "Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?", "url_title": "Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?", "slug": "will-novak-djokovic-win-the-australian-open", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-19T21:27:43.050330Z", "published_at": "2025-01-03T15:04:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.202662Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-03T15:04:19Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-24T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-26T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-24T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-03T15:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 299, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32626, "name": "Tom Coupe's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "coupe", "description": "This community as for the forecasting module of UC's FIEC675 class", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 188975, "username": "tco55", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32559, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_TqQCKYL.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-12-11T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-03T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-03T20:11:36.362514Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-08T06:50:47.494484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32559, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_TqQCKYL.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-12-11T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-03T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-03T20:11:36.362514Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-08T06:50:47.494484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30854, "title": "Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?", "created_at": "2024-12-19T21:27:43.050738Z", "open_time": "2025-01-03T15:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-05T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-05T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-24T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-24T17:54:49.919348Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-26T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-24T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Big Four](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_\\(tennis\\)#Big_Four_era) professional tennis players are Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray, known for their dominance in men's singles tennis over the last two decades. Djokovic is the last of the Big Four to remain active after Rafael Nadal's [retirement](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144039-rafael-nadal-loses-in-final-match-of-legendary-tennis-career-at-2024-davis-cup) in November 2024. Federer and Murray [retired](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/tennis/top-stories/last-of-big-four-novak-djokovic-battles-on/articleshow/114155909.cms) in 2022 and 2024, respectively.\n\nDjokovic, at 37 years old and recovering from a [recent injury](https://apnews.com/article/djokovic-atp-finals-injury-2f0342c609dd3da6edb6d0eeb976cc44), is [set to retire](https://www.eurosport.com/tennis/novak-djokovic-2025-season-australian-open-play-full-throttle-future_sto20052372/story.shtml) in 2025 but has said he will go \"full throttle\" including aiming for the title at the 2025 Australian Open. Djokovic [will be coached](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144511-novak-djokovic-will-be-coached-by-andy-murray-through-2025-australian-open) by his fellow Big Four member, Andy Murray. If Djokovic wins, it will be his 100th career title. \n\nThe [Australian Open](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Open), played on a hard surface, is a two-week tennis tournament founded in 1905 that is the first of the four major championships in professional tennis's Grand Slam (the others being the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open). The 2025 Australian Open [is scheduled](https://www.roadtrips.com/tennis-packages/australian-open/schedule/) to begin on Sunday January 12, with the Men's Final scheduled for Sunday January 26, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Novak Djokovic wins the men's singles championship at the 2025 Australian Open.", "fine_print": "If the 2025 Australian Open does not take place and conclude before February 2, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 31127, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737740986.414117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 329, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737740986.414117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 329, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.14920288279006758 ], "histogram": [ [ 24.05616213498837, 0.23844761425626437, 0.008562912542726559, 0.6317362154486379, 0.0009739540461435053, 0.4700496244778276, 0.00043250283960590913, 0.0008724324102558058, 0.0009771544881153843, 0.7619353949620465, 0.28638283326809716, 0.0002839286378258241, 0.00915782304635068, 0.2249660989471561, 6.0539932215216564e-05, 0.9947582124304625, 1.8691612761131738e-07, 0.0018499452383075093, 0.02979896376889421, 0.00010142330859856118, 0.25286072663192305, 0.0005485614045928387, 1.9682669027437825e-06, 0.0, 0.15122046258114366, 0.1254661726837445, 0.012369823129707604, 0.001551849021551971, 0.02684911736040562, 0.0, 0.03637501194197445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09874711713883366, 0.07322763141045069, 0.15935390852251508, 0.022772433017243895, 0.1287461590234647, 0.0, 0.11487188918359259, 0.08278031427504048, 0.0, 0.16320042602583415, 0.0, 0.10516820056026552, 0.0, 0.0003925969651712742, 0.0, 0.00990706873812068, 0.0, 0.061639410732464, 0.08595173414090747, 0.0, 0.07256248741215618, 0.02349746872933452, 0.26996378154755557, 0.04950848565154683, 0.18458173495892244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4884880638442482, 0.0, 0.003666957202023752, 0.048741766534814726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11611212233415075, 0.012096162449504424, 0.046362833882056184, 0.052883018994393745, 0.04951748884442416, 0.005026031519696925, 0.00026418466502757, 0.0, 0.12543360013568708, 0.5983438085016728, 0.0, 0.27865791751136504, 0.0, 0.0003390152107488362, 0.4623645731013257, 0.01342425693815471, 0.17516271178045056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7068858750001873, 0.008897817275929174, 0.028902198101211488, 0.024481052579338906, 0.0, 0.04694166987208498, 0.0, 0.033013613824786715, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243995093775881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8969787576197259 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 68.72677347728717, "peer_score": 16.120514902941753, "coverage": 0.9093903198732524, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9977640586111047, "spot_peer_score": 20.4439472558167, "spot_baseline_score": 69.59938131099001, "baseline_archived_score": 68.72677347728717, "peer_archived_score": 16.120514902941753, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.4439472558167, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 69.59938131099001 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 45, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 601, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Big Four](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_\\(tennis\\)#Big_Four_era) professional tennis players are Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray, known for their dominance in men's singles tennis over the last two decades. Djokovic is the last of the Big Four to remain active after Rafael Nadal's [retirement](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144039-rafael-nadal-loses-in-final-match-of-legendary-tennis-career-at-2024-davis-cup) in November 2024. Federer and Murray [retired](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/tennis/top-stories/last-of-big-four-novak-djokovic-battles-on/articleshow/114155909.cms) in 2022 and 2024, respectively.\n\nDjokovic, at 37 years old and recovering from a [recent injury](https://apnews.com/article/djokovic-atp-finals-injury-2f0342c609dd3da6edb6d0eeb976cc44), is [set to retire](https://www.eurosport.com/tennis/novak-djokovic-2025-season-australian-open-play-full-throttle-future_sto20052372/story.shtml) in 2025 but has said he will go \"full throttle\" including aiming for the title at the 2025 Australian Open. Djokovic [will be coached](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144511-novak-djokovic-will-be-coached-by-andy-murray-through-2025-australian-open) by his fellow Big Four member, Andy Murray. If Djokovic wins, it will be his 100th career title. \n\nThe [Australian Open](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Open), played on a hard surface, is a two-week tennis tournament founded in 1905 that is the first of the four major championships in professional tennis's Grand Slam (the others being the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open). The 2025 Australian Open [is scheduled](https://www.roadtrips.com/tennis-packages/australian-open/schedule/) to begin on Sunday January 12, with the Men's Final scheduled for Sunday January 26, 2025." }, { "id": 31125, "title": "Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023?", "short_title": "Livestock antibiotics sales increased by 0.5% in 2024?", "url_title": "Livestock antibiotics sales increased by 0.5% in 2024?", "slug": "livestock-antibiotics-sales-increased-by-05-in-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-19T13:43:38.235951Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:11:57.879711Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T07:59:26.893068Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:11:57.879708Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:11:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 171, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30853, "title": "Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023?", "created_at": "2024-12-19T13:43:38.236305Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:11:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T20:11:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T20:11:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Approximately 80%](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4638249/) of antibiotics sold in the United States are used in animal agriculture. Concerns about [antibiotic resistance](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22922018/antibiotic-resistance-epidemic-drug-resistant-infections) have [called into question](https://www.nrdc.org/bio/david-wallinga-md/antibiotic-use-remains-far-too-intensive-us-livestock) the widespread treatment of livestock with antibiotics and its potential contribution to the growth in [antibiotic resistant bacteria](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance).\n\nThe US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) publishes an [annual report](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) on antimicrobials sold or distributed to food producing animals. The executive summary reports the following:\n\n> Domestic sales and distribution of medically important antimicrobials approved for use in food-producing animals (Table 2b):\n> - decreased by 2% from 2022 through 2023.- decreased by 37% from 2015 (the year of peak sales) through 2023.\n> - decreased by 35% from 2014 through 2023.\n\nAntibiotics use has been decreasing in various countries:\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/sales-antibiotics-livestock-europe?country=GBR~FRA~DEU~ITA~NLD&tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\" /> \nThe US [saw a similar decrease](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) in 2017, but the numbers have stayed stable since then.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "*Note: This question draws on forthcoming 2024 data to align with the Future Perfect forecast.*\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the 2024 total kilograms of medically important antimicrobial drugs sold or distributed for use in food-producing animals in the US is at least 0.5% higher than the same number for 2023.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve based on the first report by the FDA's Center for Veterinary Medicine that includes the full numbers for 2024. If the CVM does not publish the relevant numbers before April 1, 2026, alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) might be used, as long as they are roughly consistent with the previously released CVM numbers.\n* The relevant number for 2023 was 6,127,991 kg and could be found in CVM's [2023 Summary Report On Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals), II. Data on All Marketed Drugs (3), Table 2a, as the Subtotal of Medically Important drugs. If CVM, or an alternative credible source in case the CVM does not report these, shows a different number when data for 2024 are published, the updated number will be used.\n* If the 2023 number stays at 6,127,991 kg, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the 2024 number is at least 6,158,631 kg.", "post_id": 31125, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757836756.123557, "end_time": 1758289094.132, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757836756.123557, "end_time": 1758289094.132, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5954219489790689 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.663112878837076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18053713695737436, 0.10227296739520486, 0.0, 0.6804397779825782, 0.5236874151830103, 0.0, 0.018996793087590582, 0.0, 1.5269305380407299, 0.19725545985062867, 0.4921655223247876, 0.0, 0.0, 4.369025432280514, 0.0, 0.006447634808499139, 0.0, 0.5090355809216933, 1.1313418100175225, 0.9846065303416179, 0.18044206424386386, 0.25562848828361623, 0.5644485981864586, 0.06552734727732062, 0.1368859382907578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32768716652500174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15032659043345778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 288, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Approximately 80%](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4638249/) of antibiotics sold in the United States are used in animal agriculture. Concerns about [antibiotic resistance](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22922018/antibiotic-resistance-epidemic-drug-resistant-infections) have [called into question](https://www.nrdc.org/bio/david-wallinga-md/antibiotic-use-remains-far-too-intensive-us-livestock) the widespread treatment of livestock with antibiotics and its potential contribution to the growth in [antibiotic resistant bacteria](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance).\n\nThe US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) publishes an [annual report](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) on antimicrobials sold or distributed to food producing animals. The executive summary reports the following:\n\n> Domestic sales and distribution of medically important antimicrobials approved for use in food-producing animals (Table 2b):\n> - decreased by 2% from 2022 through 2023.- decreased by 37% from 2015 (the year of peak sales) through 2023.\n> - decreased by 35% from 2014 through 2023.\n\nAntibiotics use has been decreasing in various countries:\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/sales-antibiotics-livestock-europe?country=GBR~FRA~DEU~ITA~NLD&tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\" /> \nThe US [saw a similar decrease](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) in 2017, but the numbers have stayed stable since then.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31124, "title": "Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024?", "short_title": "Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024?", "url_title": "Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024?", "slug": "will-car-crash-deaths-in-the-us-be-below-40000-for-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-19T13:13:03.544454Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:07:58.545515Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.955367Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:07:58.545513Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-10T11:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:07:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 163, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30852, "title": "Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-19T13:13:03.544819Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T20:07:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T20:07:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-10T11:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-10T11:15:03.648162Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Car crashes are one of the [leading causes of death](https://www.cdc.gov/transportation-safety/about/index.html) in the United States, kiling about 40,000 people each year. This number [saw a significant increase](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813633) during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, but has been consistently falling since the second quarter of 2022. [Research suggests](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2020-fatality-data-show-increased-traffic-fatalities-during-pandemic) the reason for the increase was that drivers during the pandemic engaged in more risky behavior, including speeding, failing to wear seat belts, and driving under the influence of drugs or alcohol. \n\nData from the [National Highway Traffic Safety Administration](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813633) can be seen here:\n\n| Year | Fatalities | Change from previous year |\n| ------ | ---------- | ------------------------- |\n| 2013 | 32,893 | -2.6% |\n| 2014 | 32,744 | -0.5% |\n| 2015 | 35,484 | +8.4% |\n| 2016 | 37,806 | +6.5% |\n| 2017 | 37,473 | -0.9% |\n| 2018 | 36,835 | -1.7% |\n| 2019 | 36,835 | -1.3% |\n| 2020 | 39,007 | +7.3% |\n| 2021 | 43,230 | +10.8% |\n| 2022 | 42,514 | -1.7% |\n| 2023\\* | 40,990 | -3.6% |\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "*Note: This question focuses on **2024** car crash deaths to align with the Future Perfect prediction. See fine print for more.* \n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the first data [published by](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases) the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration show that the total number of traffic fatalities is less than 40,000 for the year 2024.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve based on the first data published by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for the whole year, including preliminary data and statistical projections. For example, the early estimates of traffic fatalities for 2023 were published in [this press release](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2022-traffic-deaths-2023-early-estimates) on April 1, 2024, and the NHTSA estimate was 44,990. \n* Later revisions will not affect the resolution of this question.\n* If the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration does not publish data for 2024 before January 1, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 31124, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740467279.480784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740467279.480784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8417128773903979 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004610343867954063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006023125577405555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00032311369443117276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0056387795649152994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002254848526320542, 0.02404274331180677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07170709860653195, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2204467326042014e-05, 0.00035903505139470957, 0.7596196091891849, 6.212803712384058e-05, 0.7728454599816393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19060181590955075, 0.0, 0.03710732352323906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017117259046446932, 0.0, 0.060920294728108865, 0.0, 0.0005893917770031863, 0.6809340422054055, 0.053399009054225705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01148283190639275, 1.5240624077809675, 0.16974280297134703, 0.5702964788053436, 0.5255044902662914, 0.0, 1.9919026744746202, 0.1377795381970071, 0.056694985448332715, 0.26544631527093765, 0.6701028582915605, 3.9809501679601387, 0.7700513808518333, 0.9375958620177044, 0.5737441313571764, 0.332540620186898, 2.230791654557759, 1.2339285050492326, 0.5552045854530039, 1.3082419902241127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.683791033764687, 0.00945843458658888, 0.0, 2.672534275065666 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 66.67891231907188, "peer_score": 9.9807651273678, "coverage": 0.998160931573003, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.998160931573003, "spot_peer_score": 18.323618623124254, "spot_baseline_score": 56.55971758542251, "baseline_archived_score": 66.67891231907188, "peer_archived_score": 9.9807651273678, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.323618623124254, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 56.55971758542251 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 267, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Car crashes are one of the [leading causes of death](https://www.cdc.gov/transportation-safety/about/index.html) in the United States, kiling about 40,000 people each year. This number [saw a significant increase](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813633) during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, but has been consistently falling since the second quarter of 2022. [Research suggests](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2020-fatality-data-show-increased-traffic-fatalities-during-pandemic) the reason for the increase was that drivers during the pandemic engaged in more risky behavior, including speeding, failing to wear seat belts, and driving under the influence of drugs or alcohol. \n\nData from the [National Highway Traffic Safety Administration](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813633) can be seen here:\n\n| Year | Fatalities | Change from previous year |\n| ------ | ---------- | ------------------------- |\n| 2013 | 32,893 | -2.6% |\n| 2014 | 32,744 | -0.5% |\n| 2015 | 35,484 | +8.4% |\n| 2016 | 37,806 | +6.5% |\n| 2017 | 37,473 | -0.9% |\n| 2018 | 36,835 | -1.7% |\n| 2019 | 36,835 | -1.3% |\n| 2020 | 39,007 | +7.3% |\n| 2021 | 43,230 | +10.8% |\n| 2022 | 42,514 | -1.7% |\n| 2023\\* | 40,990 | -3.6% |\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31123, "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?", "slug": "will-iran-possess-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-19T11:54:50.470765Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:02:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T10:50:04.534579Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:02:23Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:56:27.758987Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30851, "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-19T11:54:50.471183Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Iran’s nuclear program has been a focal point of global attention for decades. Although the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), signed in 2015, sought to limit Iran's nuclear activities, the United States' withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 and subsequent re-imposition of sanctions escalated tensions. Since then, Iran has [significantly increased](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20ee6qylwgo) its production of highly enriched uranium, despite it officially denying the existence of a nuclear program. In 2022 a [report](https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Current_Iranian_Breakout_Estimates_June_1_2022_Final.pdf) by the Institute for Science and International Security claimed that Iran's breakout time - the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon - was basically zero, a claim that was reiterated by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken [in July 2024](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/blinken-nuclear-weapon-breakout-time/index.html).\n\nHowever, estimates of breakout time do not account for the technological capability and time required to build a deliverable nuclear warhead ([which has been estimated by some at 1-2 years](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9870/)). In its [2024 Annual Threat Assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf), the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence concluded that while Iran does not appear to be currently pursuing development of a nuclear device, the nuclear activities undertaken since 2020 \"better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so\".\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if at least one of the following occurs:\n\n1. The Iranian government states that it has a nuclear weapon, and [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) deem the statement to be credible.\n2. The Iranian government states that it has tested a nuclear weapon at any time, and [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) deem the statement to be credible.\n3. At least one of these three sources, which will be considered per se authoritative for purposes of this question, reports that Iran possesses or has tested a nuclear weapon: the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nuclear-weapons-who-has-what-glance), the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://www.sipri.org/) and the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/).\n\nA \"nuclear weapon\" is defined as a device designed for military use that uses nuclear reactions to cause an explosion. Mere possession of weapons-grade uranium or development of related technology will not satisfy the resolution criteria.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31123, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757875920.094518, "end_time": 1758230959.548192, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.012 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757875920.094518, "end_time": 1758230959.548192, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.012 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.988, 0.012 ], "means": [ 0.04295409111921894 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.195789450421763, 6.937905711833657, 4.31686618677864, 3.4746786067871627, 1.4458949930699219, 1.5233716254954202, 0.6671960707582065, 0.0003635774258547796, 0.002224922867511921, 0.0, 1.0341524251445269, 0.0005167848073505676, 0.018930476484572627, 0.07115327941562156, 0.0, 0.10359425606541704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007298716878948373, 0.002672787094684658, 0.050285562781920784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3772514111809501, 0.0022960870321493618, 0.0009573842198735848, 0.0015129765448013163, 0.0, 0.010925113218693988, 0.0, 0.0001071853544301764, 0.0, 0.011926592309400122, 3.468033728726818e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011545157497115479, 0.0, 2.5625495774546096e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7981421673524933e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.575927264760345e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9689634872743986, 0.0069724002013052755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003964294254341809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012458121077880843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018514005280530205 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2174, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Iran’s nuclear program has been a focal point of global attention for decades. Although the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), signed in 2015, sought to limit Iran's nuclear activities, the United States' withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 and subsequent re-imposition of sanctions escalated tensions. Since then, Iran has [significantly increased](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20ee6qylwgo) its production of highly enriched uranium, despite it officially denying the existence of a nuclear program. In 2022 a [report](https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Current_Iranian_Breakout_Estimates_June_1_2022_Final.pdf) by the Institute for Science and International Security claimed that Iran's breakout time - the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon - was basically zero, a claim that was reiterated by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken [in July 2024](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/blinken-nuclear-weapon-breakout-time/index.html).\n\nHowever, estimates of breakout time do not account for the technological capability and time required to build a deliverable nuclear warhead ([which has been estimated by some at 1-2 years](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9870/)). In its [2024 Annual Threat Assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf), the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence concluded that while Iran does not appear to be currently pursuing development of a nuclear device, the nuclear activities undertaken since 2020 \"better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so\".\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31121, "title": "Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?", "short_title": "Ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?", "url_title": "Ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?", "slug": "ceasefire-in-the-russo-ukraine-conflict-before-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-19T10:59:37.574821Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:02:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:29:39.504998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:02:12Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1832, "html_metadata_json": { "title": "Will Russia and Ukraine Agree to Ceasefire by 2026?", "description": "Could tensions between India and Pakistan escalate into deadly military exchanges, resulting in 100 or more casualties?" }, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null }, { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:56:27.758987Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30849, "title": "Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-19T10:59:37.575165Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump [repeatedly claimed](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how. While Zelensky [was somewhat reassured](https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/musk-trump-zelensky-ukraine-call) by his phone call with Trump and Elon Musk, after the November elections, [more recent reporting](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) indicates that Trump's plans might cede a lot of Ukraine ground to Russia.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a bilateral ceasefire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, inclusive. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A ceasefire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire has broken down or is no longer effective. If no ceasefire has stood for 30 days before January 30, 2026, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThe ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. 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Throughout his campaign, Trump [repeatedly claimed](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how. While Zelensky [was somewhat reassured](https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/musk-trump-zelensky-ukraine-call) by his phone call with Trump and Elon Musk, after the November elections, [more recent reporting](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) indicates that Trump's plans might cede a lot of Ukraine ground to Russia.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31118, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?", "short_title": "Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?", "url_title": "Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?", "slug": "netanyahu-remain-prime-minister-of-israel-throughout-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-19T00:57:56.137021Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:34:09.735274Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:02:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1371, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:56:27.758987Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30848, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-19T00:57:56.137367Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the Prime Minister of Israel as of December 2024, since the end of 2022, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 17 years.\n\nThroughout 2024, Netanyahu's leadership has faced significant challenges, including [ongoing corruption trials](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g30271wxwo) and international legal actions. In November 2024, the International Criminal Court [issued an arrest warrant](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-state-palestine-icc-pre-trial-chamber-i-rejects-state-israels-challenges) for Netanyahu, alleging war crimes committed during the Israel–Hamas conflict. Despite these legal issues, Netanyahu has maintained his position as Prime Minister. Israeli law [permits a prime minister](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-corruption-trial-divides-israeli-public-2024-12-09/) to remain in office unless convicted and after all appeals are exhausted.\n\nPublic opinion has been divided regarding Netanyahu's tenure. In July 2024, [a poll showed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-finds-72-of-israelis-think-netanyahu-should-quit-over-oct-7-failures/) that 72% of Israelis think Netanyahu should quit over the security failures that led to the Hamas attacks in October 2023.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration from January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, inclusive. If Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister at any point during 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "As long as Netanyahu retains the official title of Prime Minister, this question will not resolve as **No**, even if he is suspended, has temporarily stepped back due to health or other reasons, or an acting Prime Minister has been appointed to fulfill his duties.\n\nFor purposes of this question, \"temporarily\" is defined as Netanyahu resuming his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **No,** even if he officially retains the official title of Prime Minister. This 30 day period must complete before December 31, 2025, otherwise the question will resolve as **Yes** if he holds the office of Prime Minister of the State of Israel.", "post_id": 31118, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757883738.026708, "end_time": 1758276904.809, "forecaster_count": 268, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757883738.026708, "end_time": 1758276904.809, "forecaster_count": 268, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9205824537648758 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05906568255693074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.362515727152694e-05, 0.034365382507385724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024136259684558138, 0.0, 0.0032162448466861943, 0.04004469371408541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015542921888386246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04658244836648392, 0.0, 0.0038717382315048877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012791284192733374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06562831298738901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37703902491822655, 0.0001683341112843875, 0.00012915374305024692, 0.0, 0.0001576816489060382, 0.197763812464601, 0.0, 4.796615858751903e-06, 0.0, 0.0060889606663770985, 0.07246551975273993, 0.01904345325262464, 0.01939458173101147, 0.001322378832890859, 0.05167711704891395, 0.7184959397749069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04866008471912687, 1.2088366455712296, 1.1195003134651582, 0.2165108512800607, 0.3100053757945876, 0.03812422565554529, 0.45292878245853446, 4.974239540015607, 1.3781243770988385, 1.2484992732641942, 1.5732011643946033, 1.1605267082838255, 7.691991396273233, 1.206140645599044, 2.000570259792346, 0.36479707167980896, 4.503962917968571 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 70, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2479, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the Prime Minister of Israel as of December 2024, since the end of 2022, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 17 years.\n\nThroughout 2024, Netanyahu's leadership has faced significant challenges, including [ongoing corruption trials](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g30271wxwo) and international legal actions. In November 2024, the International Criminal Court [issued an arrest warrant](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-state-palestine-icc-pre-trial-chamber-i-rejects-state-israels-challenges) for Netanyahu, alleging war crimes committed during the Israel–Hamas conflict. Despite these legal issues, Netanyahu has maintained his position as Prime Minister. Israeli law [permits a prime minister](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-corruption-trial-divides-israeli-public-2024-12-09/) to remain in office unless convicted and after all appeals are exhausted.\n\nPublic opinion has been divided regarding Netanyahu's tenure. In July 2024, [a poll showed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-finds-72-of-israelis-think-netanyahu-should-quit-over-oct-7-failures/) that 72% of Israelis think Netanyahu should quit over the security failures that led to the Hamas attacks in October 2023.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31117, "title": "Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?", "short_title": "Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?", "url_title": "Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?", "slug": "argentinas-yoy-inflation-below-30-for-december-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-19T00:34:03.698784Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:01:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T01:47:26.344644Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:01:47Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:56:27.758987Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30847, "title": "Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-19T00:34:03.699245Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down to 2.4% for November 2024. Argentina's YoY inflation rate was 211% for December 2023, the highest in the world, and rose further to [292% for April 2024](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi), but has since fallen to 166%.\n\nHowever, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2025 is projected by [the IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARG) to be 62.7% for 2025 as of December 2024. Additionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\n\nAccording to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Argentina's year-over-year inflation rate is strictly less than 30.0% for the month of December 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), whose monthly report can be accessed [here](https://sdds.indec.gob.ar/nsdp.htm).\n\nThis question will resolve based on the \"Anual Growth Rate (%)\" value found for \"Consumer Prices\" when the \"Date of Latest\" value is Dec-25.", "fine_print": "The specific link to the INDEC monthly report is provided solely for convenience; if the data is available elsewhere, then that will be used for resolution. If there are other issues with accessing data at the INDEC website, then Metaculus may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to resolve this question, as long as their numbers are consistent with previous numbers INDEC.", "post_id": 31117, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757812624.359327, "end_time": 1758241110.67, "forecaster_count": 227, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757812624.359327, "end_time": 1758241110.67, "forecaster_count": 227, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6353019866941136 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004758914927037088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013861324790102269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013060490650020613, 0.046583020401324594, 0.00029212874566869916, 0.0, 0.3967759363901454, 5.4998847999782e-05, 0.0, 0.0044144659612294305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.062200227413392775, 0.014939617797234201, 0.00044472700099265584, 0.00038764653632702956, 0.07913855617091523, 0.10134858712355614, 0.0, 0.002193521000752447, 0.0, 0.002073899233364694, 0.1346994057800824, 0.0, 0.002590030585738266, 0.0, 0.2676756819025957, 1.3499378184055382, 0.0, 0.1420406315384996, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7990518146443804, 0.09682710496702822, 0.460504003540791, 0.00016302756339501488, 0.7987285100204866, 1.9839519889571409, 0.6964870942535138, 0.03537201400524985, 0.0, 0.5134700828754025, 3.6892469084450745, 0.4528389068413091, 1.2475874864118883, 0.29379910497862294, 0.31388043771011453, 1.5003237439882153, 1.2180515347457497, 0.016373877929204087, 0.0, 0.8137010499554965, 1.4463870279162754, 0.7801723919088351, 0.07304938385907138, 0.03325799110019593, 1.0567079408797704, 1.3947656572425042, 0.6493639197011185, 0.3413279162918097, 0.0, 0.4789780298052879, 2.550827497792502, 0.3321132912563405, 0.003217533778339939, 0.0, 0.714909505049167, 0.027949218425081645, 0.04284596151062984, 0.03467374159387432, 0.0, 0.006385860179963759, 0.1113232860934788, 0.0006617964802738632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003814117663860775 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2219, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down to 2.4% for November 2024. Argentina's YoY inflation rate was 211% for December 2023, the highest in the world, and rose further to [292% for April 2024](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi), but has since fallen to 166%.\n\nHowever, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2025 is projected by [the IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARG) to be 62.7% for 2025 as of December 2024. Additionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\n\nAccording to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31112, "title": "Will another US state ban lab-grown meat in 2025?", "short_title": "Will an additional US state ban lab-grown meat in 2025?", "url_title": "Will an additional US state ban lab-grown meat in 2025?", "slug": "will-an-additional-us-state-ban-lab-grown-meat-in-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-18T19:28:35.542937Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:01:27.860384Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.076791Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:01:27.860381Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-11T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-11T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 183, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30842, "title": "Will another US state ban lab-grown meat in 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-18T19:28:35.552357Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T20:01:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T20:01:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-11T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-12T12:23:14.996534Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-11T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [Animal Legal & Historical Center](https://www.animallaw.info/article/lab-grown-meat-ban-or-buy) at Michigan State University College of Law: \n\n> Amidst the debate on the ethics of animal agriculture and factory farmed animal products, some have looked towards the solution of lab-grown meat in order to ethically grow meat and other animal products for human consumption. The practice of growing lab grown or cultured meat involves taking stem cells from a living donor animal, then growing those cells into a consumable meat product either in vitro or through some other means for multiplying the stem cells. Proponents argue that the practice should be encouraged, as it has the potential to cut down greenhouse gas emissions caused by traditional animal agriculture, reduce water consumption required to produce animal products, reduce the need for farming space, and poses an ethical solution to the issue of the lack of animal welfare in traditional factory farming operations.\n\nIn May 2, 2024, Florida [enacted](https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/cultivated-meat-laws-and-regulations) SB 2084 \"prohibiting the manufacture for sale, sale, holding or offering for sale, or distribution of cultivated meat in this state.\" Florida governor Ron DeSantis said, \"Today, Florida is fighting back against the global elite’s plan to force the world to eat meat grown in a petri dish or bugs to achieve their authoritarian goals.\" Shortly thereafter, Alabama [enacted](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/05/13/lab-grown-meat-ban-alabama/73678952007/) its own ban, becoming the second US state to do so. Florida's ban is being [challenged in court](https://ij.org/case/florida-cultivated-meat-ban/).\n\nAt least two other states, [Iowa](https://www.meatpoultry.com/articles/30234-iowa-governor-signs-law-for-requirements-on-lab-grown-meat) and [Arizona](https://tucson.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/arizona-senate-lab-grown-cultivated-meat-labeling-sales-cattle-ranchers-opposed/article_1f1a6bde-0248-11ef-9d80-9388d455540e.html), have passed strict labelling requirements, though have stopped short of banning cultivated meat. States that are reportedly working on bans in 2025 are [Nebraska](https://governor.nebraska.gov/gov-pillen-previews-2025-legislative-priorities) and [Illinois](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2024/09/more-states-lining-up-to-ban-cell-grown-meat/).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2026, any US state not on the list below enacts a law prohibiting the sale of cultivated meat:\n\n* [Alabama](https://legiscan.com/AL/bill/SB23/2024)\n* [Florida](https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2024/1084)\n\nIf no new prohibitions on the sale of cultivated meat become law in any other US state before January 1, 2026, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "For it to count, a law must fully prohibit the sale of cultivated meat within the state. Therefore laws such as Iowa's [Senate File 2391](https://www.legis.iowa.gov/legislation/BillBook?ga=90\\&ba=SF%202391), which regulates and restricts cultivated meat but does not ban the sale of it, would not count.\n\nThis question resolves upon a ban being signed into law, rather than when it is implemented. \n\nAn enacted law being later overturned will not cause the question to re-resolve.\n\nPartial bans (for example laws prohibiting the sale of cultivated meat to persons under 21 years of age) will not count.\n\nThis question pertains to the sale of cultivated meat within a state, not to the purchase of it by individuals. ", "post_id": 31112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741771860.394231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 181, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741771860.394231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 181, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.8367097021479754 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.009834455612364356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002553451581887681, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08997143662243921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0054758224475078025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004280762859484282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028606276978575033, 1.0610950255739168e-05, 0.0, 0.006176374799009082, 0.0, 3.006901936746221e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5163403778726924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5245939020206891, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001403953267591354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6006066128778985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5657939458400423, 0.019423326780431897, 0.0018924508173712034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7515413121511756, 0.6390955531540341, 1.1381449632396778, 0.0821529194598389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8612733235987424, 1.1539722392700704, 0.4473055296208067, 0.0, 0.4300424211085471, 0.08424824243615231, 1.3064545810783477, 0.0, 0.43193560111917284, 0.04462131522478918, 1.6515710261363699, 1.0976230333189199, 0.16167854741788268, 0.572437046544316, 0.3083259081313486, 0.02069604163199397, 2.166002177646835, 0.8205177959109806, 0.5265989670882313, 0.49337094762290823, 1.097430304860897, 1.376051685709507, 0.9750000459234792, 0.018034043612176396, 1.0, 3.378491040795625 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 15.146634646782436, "peer_score": 3.398914755172609, "coverage": 0.213340703484951, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.998614213677149, "spot_peer_score": 33.30079147589618, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 15.146634646782436, "peer_archived_score": 3.398914755172609, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.30079147589618, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 302, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [Animal Legal & Historical Center](https://www.animallaw.info/article/lab-grown-meat-ban-or-buy) at Michigan State University College of Law: \n\n> Amidst the debate on the ethics of animal agriculture and factory farmed animal products, some have looked towards the solution of lab-grown meat in order to ethically grow meat and other animal products for human consumption. The practice of growing lab grown or cultured meat involves taking stem cells from a living donor animal, then growing those cells into a consumable meat product either in vitro or through some other means for multiplying the stem cells. Proponents argue that the practice should be encouraged, as it has the potential to cut down greenhouse gas emissions caused by traditional animal agriculture, reduce water consumption required to produce animal products, reduce the need for farming space, and poses an ethical solution to the issue of the lack of animal welfare in traditional factory farming operations.\n\nIn May 2, 2024, Florida [enacted](https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/cultivated-meat-laws-and-regulations) SB 2084 \"prohibiting the manufacture for sale, sale, holding or offering for sale, or distribution of cultivated meat in this state.\" Florida governor Ron DeSantis said, \"Today, Florida is fighting back against the global elite’s plan to force the world to eat meat grown in a petri dish or bugs to achieve their authoritarian goals.\" Shortly thereafter, Alabama [enacted](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/05/13/lab-grown-meat-ban-alabama/73678952007/) its own ban, becoming the second US state to do so. Florida's ban is being [challenged in court](https://ij.org/case/florida-cultivated-meat-ban/).\n\nAt least two other states, [Iowa](https://www.meatpoultry.com/articles/30234-iowa-governor-signs-law-for-requirements-on-lab-grown-meat) and [Arizona](https://tucson.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/arizona-senate-lab-grown-cultivated-meat-labeling-sales-cattle-ranchers-opposed/article_1f1a6bde-0248-11ef-9d80-9388d455540e.html), have passed strict labelling requirements, though have stopped short of banning cultivated meat. States that are reportedly working on bans in 2025 are [Nebraska](https://governor.nebraska.gov/gov-pillen-previews-2025-legislative-priorities) and [Illinois](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2024/09/more-states-lining-up-to-ban-cell-grown-meat/).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31110, "title": "Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, \"Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act\", be in effect on January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will California's 2018 Prop 12 be in effect on Jan 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will California's 2018 Prop 12 be in effect on Jan 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-californias-2018-prop-12-be-in-effect-on-jan-1-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-18T17:37:35.726094Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:01:16.572281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T21:01:57.430037Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:01:16.572278Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 179, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30840, "title": "Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, \"Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act\", be in effect on January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-18T17:37:35.726475Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T20:01:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T20:01:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Proposition 12](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_Proposition_12) is a California ballot proposition that expanded upon California's already existing ban on caged farming systems (egg-laying hens kept in battery cages and pregnant sows kept in gestation crates). Under Proposition 12, not only would production of animal products made under intensive caged farming systems be illegal in the state, but so would the sale of such products (regardless of where they were made).\n\nIn [*National Pork Producers Council v. Ross*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pork_Producers_Council_v._Ross), a group of farmers and corporations in the pork industry, led by the [National Pork Producers Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pork_Producers_Council \"National Pork Producers Council\") and the [American Farm Bureau Federation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Farm_Bureau_Federation \"American Farm Bureau Federation\"), sued the California Department of Food and Agriculture, led by [Karen Ross](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_Ross \"Karen Ross\"). They asserted that the proposition violates the [Dormant Commerce Clause](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dormant_Commerce_Clause \"Dormant Commerce Clause\"), which prohibits laws that impact interstate commerce. The Biden administration [asked the court](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/supreme-court-rejects-challenge-to-california-pork-law-mandating-more-space-for-pigs/) to overturn the law in order to protect the country's pork industry, but the Supreme Court rejected the Dormant Commerce Clause argument and [upheld](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-468_5if6.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com) Proposition 12.\n\nAs of 2024, House Republicans [are attempting](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/353393/farm-bill-republicans-prop-12-gestation-crates-pork) to overturn Proposition 12, via the the latest [United States farm bill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_farm_bill).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if California’s 2018 Proposition 12, \"Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act\", is in effect on January 1, 2026. This question will resolve as **No** if it is not in effect for any reason, including but not limited to being overturned by a federal bill, being suspended by a court, or repealed by the California legislature.", "fine_print": "If any portion of Proposition 12 is not in effect then the question will as **No**. The official ballot summary of Proposition 12 is:\n\n> * Establishes new minimum space requirements for confining veal calves, breeding pigs, and egg-laying hens.\n> * Requires egg-laying hens be raised in cage-free environment after December 31, 2021.\n> * Prohibits certain commercial sales of specified meat and egg products derived from animals confined in noncomplying manner.\n> * Defines sales violations as unfair competition.\n> * Creates good faith defense for sellers relying upon written certification by suppliers that meat and egg products comply with new confinement standards.\n> * Requires State of California to issue implementing regulations.\n\n(Source: Page 68 of the [California Official Voter Information Guide](https://vig.cdn.sos.ca.gov/2018/general/pdf/complete-vig.pdf) for 2018)\n\nThe US House of Representative's Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2024 (also known as the Farm Bill) is an example of legislation that, if it were enacted, would count. In section 12007 (viewable [here](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/8467/text)) it says:\n\n> \\[N]o State or subdivision thereof may enact or enforce, directly or indirectly, as a condition for sale or consumption, any condition or standard of production on products derived from covered livestock not physically raised in such State or subdivision that is in addition to, or different from, the conditions or standards of production in the State in which the production occurs.\n\nIn its definition of \"covered livestock,\" the House Farm Bill specifies that covered livestock includes any domestic animal raised for the purpose of slaughter for human consumption, but it specifically does not include domestic animals raised for egg production. If this were enacted this would count for purposes of this question, since it nullifies California's ability to enforce Proposition 12's space requirements for pigs and veal calves, even though it still allows California to enforce Prop 12's space requirements for egg-laying hens.", "post_id": 31110, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757883706.66034, "end_time": 1759582650.277, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757883706.66034, "end_time": 1759582650.277, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7827406748360292 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11034223931239878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.029132572966941807, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21810592821876404, 0.12084514123888299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038452075194978584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5834493614127161, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6325170963217857, 0.19892345174351658, 0.5830423478503257, 0.5659569099295612, 0.879912268096632, 3.131790390632905, 0.0, 0.3106625186139859, 0.2387745119184577, 0.7469208418768826, 1.3687840995077019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6929825785475864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 344, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Proposition 12](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_Proposition_12) is a California ballot proposition that expanded upon California's already existing ban on caged farming systems (egg-laying hens kept in battery cages and pregnant sows kept in gestation crates). Under Proposition 12, not only would production of animal products made under intensive caged farming systems be illegal in the state, but so would the sale of such products (regardless of where they were made).\n\nIn [*National Pork Producers Council v. Ross*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pork_Producers_Council_v._Ross), a group of farmers and corporations in the pork industry, led by the [National Pork Producers Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pork_Producers_Council \"National Pork Producers Council\") and the [American Farm Bureau Federation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Farm_Bureau_Federation \"American Farm Bureau Federation\"), sued the California Department of Food and Agriculture, led by [Karen Ross](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_Ross \"Karen Ross\"). They asserted that the proposition violates the [Dormant Commerce Clause](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dormant_Commerce_Clause \"Dormant Commerce Clause\"), which prohibits laws that impact interstate commerce. The Biden administration [asked the court](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/supreme-court-rejects-challenge-to-california-pork-law-mandating-more-space-for-pigs/) to overturn the law in order to protect the country's pork industry, but the Supreme Court rejected the Dormant Commerce Clause argument and [upheld](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-468_5if6.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com) Proposition 12.\n\nAs of 2024, House Republicans [are attempting](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/353393/farm-bill-republicans-prop-12-gestation-crates-pork) to overturn Proposition 12, via the the latest [United States farm bill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_farm_bill).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31106, "title": "Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?", "short_title": "All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?", "url_title": "All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?", "slug": "all-star-bannedsuspended-for-betting-before-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-18T16:18:29.170425Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:01:04.577507Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T21:01:14.344580Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:01:04.577505Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 222, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30837, "title": "Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-18T16:18:29.170861Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T20:00:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T20:00:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n\n* In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n* In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n* In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n* In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n\nIn 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any player who has ever been selected as an All-Star in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL is banned or suspended due to sports betting.", "fine_print": "* Any suspension due to sports betting for any amount of time or number of games will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* Every player that has been selected for an All-Star or Pro Bowl roster counts, including reserves and pitchers, independently of their participation in the event. For example, if a player was selected and then was replaced due to injury or other commitments, he still counts. Only current players are included, former All-Star players (for example players who are now managers or coaches) do not count.\n* The ban or suspension has to happen after the player has been selected for the corresponding roster. Players that were suspended before they were selected will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* The main reason for the suspension or the ban has to be sports betting as mentioned in the official organization statement or as confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 31106, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757883664.073477, "end_time": 1759104178.671, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.691 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757883664.073477, "end_time": 1759104178.671, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.691 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5634705506219662 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.018995653509904314, 0.0, 0.008832281468067818, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.002588766022538979, 0.0043392766864219865, 0.009463888572734298, 0.01134226073249967, 0.012782418845274361, 0.01589659395216506, 0.0050634840930635725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004992891021050837, 0.0, 0.1293948440529297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004444789593756737, 0.0021274407994285806, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2648507767833033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9605419903338226, 0.0, 0.619844361430768, 0.0, 0.363088956650916, 0.5484997299670512, 0.04006867348160595, 0.05739703566227289, 0.20142760006632496, 0.4827205360804419, 0.5613702860975415, 0.310043095747358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6179080413939984, 1.0516667984252708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6590390464516561, 1.3963752505416194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4285706664735872, 0.3728600386790456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6216380579593116, 0.7003927598367212, 0.08734309772970561, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6765644929707424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7440095530395536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033167896481265315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6832059738373082 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 581, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n\n* In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n* In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n* In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n* In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n\nIn 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31100, "title": "Will Denzel Washington win the Oscar for the Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator II?", "short_title": "D. Washington wins Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator 2?", "url_title": "D. Washington wins Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator 2?", "slug": "d-washington-wins-best-supporting-actor-for-gladiator-2", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-18T14:44:18.327416Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:00:52.721536Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.100280Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:00:52.721534Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-23T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-02T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-04T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 111, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30832, "title": "Will Denzel Washington win the Oscar for the Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator II?", "created_at": "2024-12-18T14:44:18.327797Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T20:00:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T20:00:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-04T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-27T14:14:45.613814Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-23T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Denzel Washington is an American actor, known for various roles including Malcolm X in the 1992 movie of the same name, Alonzo Harris in Training Day (2001), and Private Silas Trip in Glory (1989). The New York Times ranked him as #1 in their 2020 list [*The 25 Greatest Actors of the 21st Century (So Far)*](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/movies/greatest-actors-actresses.html#denzel-washington) He has received [multiple awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_awards_and_nominations_received_by_Denzel_Washington), including two Oscars (for Training Day and Glory), three Golden Globe Awards (for the same movies, plus an honorary award), and a Tony Award in 2010 for the play Fences.\n\nIn 2024, he appeared in Gladiator II, the sequel for Gladiator (2000). The movie received [mixed reviews](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/gladiator_ii), but Denzel Washington was nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\nNote: This question appears in the Future Perfect 2025 Community and Tournament, but is no longer slated to appear in Vox's January 1, 2025 article. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Denzel Washington wins the Academy Award for the Best Supporting Actor for his role in Gladiator II (2024), according to [the official page](https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2025) of the 97th Academy Awards.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31100, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740557190.238702, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 154, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740557190.238702, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 154, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.09832259545954032 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.92314484704808, 0.09729128853329602, 0.20597204231281435, 0.24136929892918896, 0.0, 0.03473925356957128, 0.026076458970859508, 0.0125465976253672, 0.07072271899864226, 0.01861990940123494, 0.04509327174183931, 0.015176086420478522, 0.0094314356264829, 0.0011119297410938263, 0.002276494940564822, 0.005434528111517848, 0.00031885480917200103, 0.0, 0.00023204065694137669, 0.0, 0.0003570846494481976, 0.0, 0.9604467202718314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013031290593945317, 0.0, 0.24422297329559095, 3.9832814011666714e-05, 0.0, 0.00019613834619698777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028734694213171244, 0.00017199996937263437, 0.5855052779456192, 0.0, 9.63622543102834e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.816446661818936e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004163203555085974, 0.0, 0.0, 6.901087057265169e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38130698105200594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4335353112714857 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 38.35037389174264, "peer_score": 2.792142082167858, "coverage": 0.47342439058759944, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.996163821861407, "spot_peer_score": -0.6327816293555162, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 38.35037389174264, "peer_archived_score": 2.792142082167858, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.6327816293555162, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 191, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Denzel Washington is an American actor, known for various roles including Malcolm X in the 1992 movie of the same name, Alonzo Harris in Training Day (2001), and Private Silas Trip in Glory (1989). The New York Times ranked him as #1 in their 2020 list [*The 25 Greatest Actors of the 21st Century (So Far)*](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/movies/greatest-actors-actresses.html#denzel-washington) He has received [multiple awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_awards_and_nominations_received_by_Denzel_Washington), including two Oscars (for Training Day and Glory), three Golden Globe Awards (for the same movies, plus an honorary award), and a Tony Award in 2010 for the play Fences.\n\nIn 2024, he appeared in Gladiator II, the sequel for Gladiator (2000). The movie received [mixed reviews](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/gladiator_ii), but Denzel Washington was nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\nNote: This question appears in the Future Perfect 2025 Community and Tournament, but is no longer slated to appear in Vox's January 1, 2025 article. " }, { "id": 31099, "title": "Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025?", "short_title": "Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025?", "url_title": "Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025?", "slug": "will-bitcoin-reach-200k-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-18T13:39:48.874297Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:00:39.000073Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T21:17:03.392797Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:00:39.000071Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 448, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30831, "title": "Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-18T13:39:48.874672Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T20:00:32Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T20:00:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bitcoin's price has fluctuated wildly over the years. It first surpassed $50k in 2021 but then spent most of 2022 and 2023 below $30k. In January 2024, the US [approved](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67916142) bitcoin ETFs for the first time with bitcoin's price rising to $60k. Then, following Donald Trump's win bitcoin first surpassed $100k.\n\nDespite Trump [claiming in 2019](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192?lang=en) that he was not a fan of bitcoin, in [August 2024](https://www.reuters.com/technology/cryptoverse-trumps-bitcoin-stockpile-plan-stirs-debate-2024-08-06/) he stated that he planned to create a strategic bitcoin reserve, something that he reiterated in [December 2024](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/bitcoin-powers-above-105000-first-time-2024-12-15/) and which could significantly impact bitcoin's price. He further [announced](https://apnews.com/article/bitcoin-trump-election-crypto-regulation-c45a747d9c32591bc4e5dcd6e5cc0c22?utm_source=chatgpt.com) that he plans to nominate crypto advocate Paul Atkins as the SEC's chair.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if bitcoin has a \"High\" price of 200,000 USD or more on any single day of 2025, according to the historical data by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/).", "fine_print": "If Yahoo Finance ceases to report this data, an alternative [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) will be chosen by Metaculus.", "post_id": 31099, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757798212.800403, "end_time": 1758289723.693, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757798212.800403, "end_time": 1758289723.693, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.048913017408773955 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.1332194399290083, 3.475213571016872, 2.9803702473414537, 3.907214867817501, 0.25962845302886883, 2.3728645882248127, 0.8999962073233853, 0.035076748875656184, 0.08184916747951856, 0.000196551008237661, 1.2081138912505167, 0.9456870377059118, 0.00038444297206547545, 0.015331217000995616, 0.0, 0.11808908059757038, 0.0, 0.09550477610540184, 0.0, 0.08045269961657854, 1.1502102333630133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023882029012069214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.882431206593951e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006111534710645336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006705873811975223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007783224494865335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002770195827676131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08521805108287933 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1096, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bitcoin's price has fluctuated wildly over the years. It first surpassed $50k in 2021 but then spent most of 2022 and 2023 below $30k. In January 2024, the US [approved](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67916142) bitcoin ETFs for the first time with bitcoin's price rising to $60k. Then, following Donald Trump's win bitcoin first surpassed $100k.\n\nDespite Trump [claiming in 2019](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192?lang=en) that he was not a fan of bitcoin, in [August 2024](https://www.reuters.com/technology/cryptoverse-trumps-bitcoin-stockpile-plan-stirs-debate-2024-08-06/) he stated that he planned to create a strategic bitcoin reserve, something that he reiterated in [December 2024](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/bitcoin-powers-above-105000-first-time-2024-12-15/) and which could significantly impact bitcoin's price. He further [announced](https://apnews.com/article/bitcoin-trump-election-crypto-regulation-c45a747d9c32591bc4e5dcd6e5cc0c22?utm_source=chatgpt.com) that he plans to nominate crypto advocate Paul Atkins as the SEC's chair.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31098, "title": "Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?", "short_title": "Donald Trump positive net favorability on December 20, 2025?", "url_title": "Donald Trump positive net favorability on December 20, 2025?", "slug": "donald-trump-positive-net-favorability-on-december-20-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-18T12:53:00.066113Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:00:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T16:22:28.355052Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:00:27Z", "comment_count": 67, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-13T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-27T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null }, { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:56:27.758987Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30830, "title": "Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?", "created_at": "2024-12-18T12:53:00.066478Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-27T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-13T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-13T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) increased from -8.6 on November 5, 2024 to -1.9 on December 17, 2024, the highest score of the previous 4 years. Please see 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028). \n\nPresidents frequently go through a \"[honeymoon period](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/honeymoon-period/)\" after they are elected, where they enjoy high approval ratings. However, [there is some evidence](https://news.gallup.com/poll/121391/obama-honeymoon-continues-months-recent-average.aspx) that honeymoon periods have been getting shorter.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the net favorability rating of Donald Trump for December 20, 2025 is \"Favorable\" [as reported by 538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/). The resolution will be based on the already-calculated net rating presented by 538.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Trump's rating is classified as \"Favorable\" by 538, even if that rating is 0.0. In case 538 has stopped classifying ratings as \"Favorable\" or \"Unfavorable\" or other equivalent categories (such as Approve/Disapprove), this question will resolve as **Yes** if Trump's Favorable rating is greater than his Unfavorable rating.\n\nThis question will resolve on the first day after December 26, 2025 that an estimate for December 20, 2024 is published on the 538 website. Potential revisions after that will not affect the resolution.\n\nIf no value for December 20, 2025 has been published until January 3, 2026, the closest values will be used to resolve this question, provided that these are for any date after December 13, 2025 and before December 27, 2025.\n\nIn that case, the resolution will be calculated as follows: If there is one, unambiguous closest value (e.g., a value for December 19, 2025 is shown on the site but not one for December 21, 2025), the question will resolve as that. If there are two equidistant closest values, then the question will resolve as their average.", "post_id": 31098, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757866937.812229, "end_time": 1758240340.871, "forecaster_count": 369, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757866937.812229, "end_time": 1758240340.871, "forecaster_count": 369, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03283801296505452 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.527668479455055, 9.725209444203662, 4.1018894544201565, 1.4739523119326443, 1.0120981316135929, 2.5359248674942236, 0.7992754331275651, 0.08045107730468569, 0.21092553627371016, 0.00048394668633835607, 1.0544340717602079, 0.03452204257203309, 0.07221397882748226, 0.010815410607658518, 0.0002720913473239821, 0.02990105408597081, 0.0, 0.0003264728658203732, 0.07471741638139916, 0.0, 0.14560625166153368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035361640323338214, 0.003871715183187059, 0.0014326153261556476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13405748924202301, 0.0, 0.00046345089724687355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011793364310828208, 0.015358651717474695, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1625024405825805e-07, 0.2524860631438818, 0.007251725378317613, 2.4741032811264477e-05, 0.007509760916826824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006639714608563303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33333661756431204, 0.0, 0.0009093167209691532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004249433378554429, 2.4811519260816934e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005052674455753251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10976948397072682, 2.806192449366912e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04865704572536795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6857619016608634e-06, 7.021221822782348e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.194300462183739e-05, 0.0, 0.0001879702411227839, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0919262300343146 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 50, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) increased from -8.6 on November 5, 2024 to -1.9 on December 17, 2024, the highest score of the previous 4 years. Please see 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028). \n\nPresidents frequently go through a \"[honeymoon period](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/honeymoon-period/)\" after they are elected, where they enjoy high approval ratings. However, [there is some evidence](https://news.gallup.com/poll/121391/obama-honeymoon-continues-months-recent-average.aspx) that honeymoon periods have been getting shorter.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31089, "title": "Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029?", "short_title": "Trump wins Peace Prize before 2029?", "url_title": "Trump wins Peace Prize before 2029?", "slug": "trump-wins-peace-prize-before-2029", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-17T15:20:54.377656Z", "published_at": "2024-12-30T22:26:33.564359Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T00:18:00.240158Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-30T22:26:33.564357Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-10T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-10T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-31T22:24:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 117, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30828, "title": "Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029?", "created_at": "2024-12-17T15:20:54.378123Z", "open_time": "2024-12-31T22:24:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-04T22:24:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-04T22:24:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-10T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-10T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-10T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [**Nobel Peace Prize**](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/) is awarded annually by the [Norwegian Nobel Committee](https://www.nobelprize.org/organization/the-norwegian-nobel-committee/) to individuals or organizations who have made significant contributions to peace efforts, as defined in Alfred Nobel's will: *\"for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.\"* The prize has historically recognized diplomats, activists, and political leaders whose actions have had a global impact on reducing conflict, fostering cooperation, or advancing humanitarian causes.\n\nFormer U.S. Presidents have occasionally been awarded the Peace Prize. **Theodore Roosevelt** ([1906](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1906/roosevelt/facts/)) and **Woodrow Wilson** ([1919](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1919/wilson/facts/)) received the honor for their respective roles in brokering peace agreements and promoting international institutions, while **Barack Obama** ([2009](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2009/obama/facts/)) was recognized early in his presidency for his, “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy.” Notably, awards to sitting U.S. leaders have sometimes sparked controversy, reflecting subjective and geopolitical considerations in the selection process.\n\n**Donald Trump**, the 45th President of the United States (2017–2021), was previously nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize multiple times, including for his role in:\n\n* Facilitating the *Abraham Accords* ([2020](https://tenney.house.gov/media/press-releases/congresswomen-tenney-nominates-donald-trump-nobel-peace-prize)) a series of agreements normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations, widely regarded as a significant diplomatic breakthrough.\n* His [2018](https://www.vox.com/world/2018/6/13/17460606/donald-trump-nobel-peace-prize-north-korea-kim) meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, aimed at denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, though the outcomes were inconclusive.\n\nThese actions prompted some [supporters to argue](https://apnews.com/article/bahrain-united-arab-emirates-kosovo-serbia-nobel-prizes-62e21f6d2ffff39a6136ede8afce3676) that Trump's contributions to international diplomacy were deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize. However, critics have pointed to [mixed results](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/trumps-foreign-policy-moments), such as tensions with allies, the U.S. withdrawal from international agreements, and escalating conflicts during his tenure.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is awarded any Nobel Peace Prize before January 1, 2029, according to the [official site](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/) or credible sources.", "fine_print": "If a year before 2029 has more than one winners, this question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is one of them.", "post_id": 31089, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757636269.847151, "end_time": 1758520437.676, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.014 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757636269.847151, "end_time": 1758520437.676, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.014 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.03190544500920687 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.610948516589422, 2.3141135087755385, 1.081646382063381, 0.7183613690510314, 0.044154445326365886, 0.8170012760418511, 0.04150163562099952, 0.12745181307008127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1548851072918734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5120191840363969, 0.004764507471173336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03675560035970638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026933773180300467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4798589449020482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 262, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [**Nobel Peace Prize**](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/) is awarded annually by the [Norwegian Nobel Committee](https://www.nobelprize.org/organization/the-norwegian-nobel-committee/) to individuals or organizations who have made significant contributions to peace efforts, as defined in Alfred Nobel's will: *\"for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.\"* The prize has historically recognized diplomats, activists, and political leaders whose actions have had a global impact on reducing conflict, fostering cooperation, or advancing humanitarian causes.\n\nFormer U.S. Presidents have occasionally been awarded the Peace Prize. **Theodore Roosevelt** ([1906](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1906/roosevelt/facts/)) and **Woodrow Wilson** ([1919](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1919/wilson/facts/)) received the honor for their respective roles in brokering peace agreements and promoting international institutions, while **Barack Obama** ([2009](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2009/obama/facts/)) was recognized early in his presidency for his, “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy.” Notably, awards to sitting U.S. leaders have sometimes sparked controversy, reflecting subjective and geopolitical considerations in the selection process.\n\n**Donald Trump**, the 45th President of the United States (2017–2021), was previously nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize multiple times, including for his role in:\n\n* Facilitating the *Abraham Accords* ([2020](https://tenney.house.gov/media/press-releases/congresswomen-tenney-nominates-donald-trump-nobel-peace-prize)) a series of agreements normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations, widely regarded as a significant diplomatic breakthrough.\n* His [2018](https://www.vox.com/world/2018/6/13/17460606/donald-trump-nobel-peace-prize-north-korea-kim) meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, aimed at denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, though the outcomes were inconclusive.\n\nThese actions prompted some [supporters to argue](https://apnews.com/article/bahrain-united-arab-emirates-kosovo-serbia-nobel-prizes-62e21f6d2ffff39a6136ede8afce3676) that Trump's contributions to international diplomacy were deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize. However, critics have pointed to [mixed results](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/trumps-foreign-policy-moments), such as tensions with allies, the U.S. withdrawal from international agreements, and escalating conflicts during his tenure." }, { "id": 31076, "title": "Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026?", "short_title": "US Eliminates Department of Education Before 2026?", "url_title": "US Eliminates Department of Education Before 2026?", "slug": "us-eliminates-department-of-education-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-16T18:15:41.613967Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:00:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:45:52.988351Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:00:15Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1172, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:56:27.758987Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30822, "title": "Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-16T18:15:41.614356Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President-elect Donald Trump [stated during his presidential campaign](https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/13/politics/trump-department-of-education-states-2024/index.html) that he wants to eliminate the Department of Education. Since winning the presidential election he has stood by this statement. In his 2024 Person of the Year [interview with Time](https://time.com/7201565/person-of-the-year-2024-donald-trump-transcript/) (conducted November 25, 2024 and published December 12, 2024), he responded to questions about his plan to cut government spending as follows:\n\n> **\\[Time:] What do you plan to do?**\n> \n> \\[Trump:] I mean, I'll give you an example. We want to move the schools back to the states. We want to, you know, we're at the bottom of every list in terms of education, and we're at the top of the list in terms of the cost per pupil, and we want to move them back to the states, and we'll spend half the money on a much better product. We'll get—I believe we can compete with Norway and Denmark and Finland and other countries. And I will tell you, China is right at the top of the list too. Most lists.\n> \n> **What does moving back to the states mean? Does that mean closing the Education Department?** \n> \n> A virtual closure of Department of Education in Washington.\n> \n> **Virtual closure?** \n> \n> Well, you're going to need some people just to make sure they're teaching English in the schools. Okay, you know English and mathematics, let's say. But we want to move education back to the states. If you look at the states, if you look at some of the individual countries, Norway is a very strong educational country, but many. I think Iowa, and I think Indiana, and a lot of these states that are well-run states. We have a lot of them that are very well run. When they run their own educational program, I think it's going to, I think they'll be able to compete with anybody. Then you're going to have the badly run states, like a guy like Gavin Newscum \\[sic] in California, where he does a poor job, and he'll, but even in California, you'll give it to Riverside. You'll give it, you know, you'll give it to areas of California where I think they'll run a great school program.\n\nThe Department of Education was created as part of the 1979 [Department of Education Organization Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Education_Organization_Act). The closure of the Department of Education [would likely require an act of Congress](https://www.vox.com/education/384779/department-of-education-trump-musk-betsy-devos), as creation of federal offices is a power [authorized to Congress](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-2/section-2/clause-2/creation-of-federal-offices).\n\nAt times in the past, Congress has granted [presidential reorganization authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_reorganization_authority), delegating Congress' power over federal offices to the president for a limited period of time, and often subject to oversight such as Congressional nullification within a certain time period after president issued such an order. Reorganization authority was [most recently granted in 1984](https://www.heritage.org/political-process/report/the-presidents-reorganization-authority) to President Ronald Reagan, though Reagan did not use his reorganization authority. In 2012, President Barack Obama [requested reorganization authority](https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/01/13/government-reorganization-fact-sheet) stating his first act under the authority would be to consolidate six departments and agencies dealing with the business oversight into one.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States has taken either of the following steps to eliminate the Department of Education:\n\n* Passed a bill into law that would eliminate the Department of Education.\n* Congress has granted [presidential reorganization authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_reorganization_authority) that gives the president power to reorganize the government, with **both** of the following subsequently occurring:\n * the president has issued an order under such power to eliminate the Department of Education\n * any oversight procedures specified in the reorganization authority passed by Congress have completed (for example, if a time limit is set on Congress to nullify such presidential orders, the time limit has expired without nullification)\n\nThe law need not take effect before the specified date, the passage of any law that abolishes the Department of Education at a future date is sufficient.", "fine_print": "* Whether or not programs or authorities currently under the purview of the Department of Education are transferred to other departments or a new department is immaterial. The question will resolve as **Yes** if the bill or order would eliminate the Department of Education, regardless of the amount and extent of existing programs that continue on in one form or another.\n* The merging or restructuring of the Department of Education, such that an agency named \"Department of Education\" ceases to exist, will count and resolve the question as **Yes**. For purposes of this question, a renaming of the Department of Education will be per se assumed to meet the threshold of a restructuring and will resolve the question as **Yes**. \n* Legal challenges brought or pending against the enacted law or order are immaterial, if the criteria above are met the question will resolve as **Yes**, regardless of whether it is later reversed or challenged.\n* This question requires that a bill be enacted or presidential order be issued under Congressional authority, executive orders or other executive action (aside from signing a bill into law) are immaterial.", "post_id": 31076, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757839502.727075, "end_time": 1758326770.618, "forecaster_count": 246, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757839502.727075, "end_time": 1758326770.618, "forecaster_count": 246, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.07530363556798651 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.3898679453935276, 3.02491046470646, 4.051710999925032, 3.9854903902699195, 2.238944875956693, 6.114433259399537, 1.3973968794368452, 0.08171423350359623, 1.0173667130086537, 0.4362058800425163, 0.643562689578178, 0.07671951368700204, 1.9010906849089735, 0.791430520166861, 0.00033739715601145643, 0.2310248309047799, 0.03722163451655085, 0.004876217480397299, 0.0, 0.0354782139932194, 0.10761727448652035, 0.0, 0.010692210154005139, 7.337163520434926e-05, 0.0, 0.012304021675619357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1115258468199485, 0.04619577531658376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32974776272000306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008400393060411851, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007472537285481857, 0.01011383859576113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003944253473153494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003398615482378454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09252721646309515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015066796730679994, 0.06826301675902971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02963313610544893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.140108480948839e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5689560941186145 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President-elect Donald Trump [stated during his presidential campaign](https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/13/politics/trump-department-of-education-states-2024/index.html) that he wants to eliminate the Department of Education. Since winning the presidential election he has stood by this statement. In his 2024 Person of the Year [interview with Time](https://time.com/7201565/person-of-the-year-2024-donald-trump-transcript/) (conducted November 25, 2024 and published December 12, 2024), he responded to questions about his plan to cut government spending as follows:\n\n> **\\[Time:] What do you plan to do?**\n> \n> \\[Trump:] I mean, I'll give you an example. We want to move the schools back to the states. We want to, you know, we're at the bottom of every list in terms of education, and we're at the top of the list in terms of the cost per pupil, and we want to move them back to the states, and we'll spend half the money on a much better product. We'll get—I believe we can compete with Norway and Denmark and Finland and other countries. And I will tell you, China is right at the top of the list too. Most lists.\n> \n> **What does moving back to the states mean? Does that mean closing the Education Department?** \n> \n> A virtual closure of Department of Education in Washington.\n> \n> **Virtual closure?** \n> \n> Well, you're going to need some people just to make sure they're teaching English in the schools. Okay, you know English and mathematics, let's say. But we want to move education back to the states. If you look at the states, if you look at some of the individual countries, Norway is a very strong educational country, but many. I think Iowa, and I think Indiana, and a lot of these states that are well-run states. We have a lot of them that are very well run. When they run their own educational program, I think it's going to, I think they'll be able to compete with anybody. Then you're going to have the badly run states, like a guy like Gavin Newscum \\[sic] in California, where he does a poor job, and he'll, but even in California, you'll give it to Riverside. You'll give it, you know, you'll give it to areas of California where I think they'll run a great school program.\n\nThe Department of Education was created as part of the 1979 [Department of Education Organization Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Education_Organization_Act). The closure of the Department of Education [would likely require an act of Congress](https://www.vox.com/education/384779/department-of-education-trump-musk-betsy-devos), as creation of federal offices is a power [authorized to Congress](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-2/section-2/clause-2/creation-of-federal-offices).\n\nAt times in the past, Congress has granted [presidential reorganization authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_reorganization_authority), delegating Congress' power over federal offices to the president for a limited period of time, and often subject to oversight such as Congressional nullification within a certain time period after president issued such an order. Reorganization authority was [most recently granted in 1984](https://www.heritage.org/political-process/report/the-presidents-reorganization-authority) to President Ronald Reagan, though Reagan did not use his reorganization authority. In 2012, President Barack Obama [requested reorganization authority](https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/01/13/government-reorganization-fact-sheet) stating his first act under the authority would be to consolidate six departments and agencies dealing with the business oversight into one.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31075, "title": "O Brasil enfrentará aumento dos casos de dengue no primeiro trimestre de 2025?", "short_title": "Epidemia de Dengue em 2025?", "url_title": "Epidemia de Dengue em 2025?", "slug": "epidemia-de-dengue-em-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-16T17:55:12.874377Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T22:34:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.172243Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T22:34:57Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-11T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 155, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32632, "type": "tournament", "name": "Torneio de Previsões do Brasil - 1º Trimestre", "slug": "Brasil", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL_keLMM1n._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "prize_pool": "1500.00", "start_date": "2025-01-22T18:28:39Z", "close_date": "2025-05-02T20:01:37Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-01-13T18:29:24.189802Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-02T14:26:22.883704Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30821, "title": "Will Brazil face an increase in dengue cases in the first quarter of 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-16T17:55:12.874713Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-11T02:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T01:37:25.812638Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T15:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brazil has historically faced high rates of dengue cases, especially during the summer, when weather conditions such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall favor the proliferation of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Dengue hemorrhagic fever, a severe form of the disease, is a growing concern due to the increase in the simultaneous circulation of multiple serotypes of the virus.\n\n Factors that can influence the risk of an epidemic include:\n\n 1. **Weather Conditions:** Above-average rainfall may increase vector reproduction. Meteorological data for early 2025 indicate the possibility of an El Niño phenomenon, which will impact rainfall patterns in the country.\n 2. **Virus Serotypes:** The simultaneous circulation of more than one serotype increases the likelihood of serious infections, such as dengue hemorrhagic fever. In 2024, records indicated an increase in cases of serotypes that had not circulated widely in recent years, such as DENV-3.\n 3. **Health System Capacity:** Overloading of the health system or failures in vector control may aggravate the situation. In 2024, there were delays in the distribution of larvicides and a reduction in prevention campaigns in some regions.\n 4. **Epidemiological Trends:** Data from the Ministry of Health show a consistent increase in the number of dengue cases in previous years, especially in the period from January to March.\n\n Brazil has faced outbreaks of hemorrhagic dengue fever in the past. In the first half of 2023, the year with the worst rates of the disease since the beginning of the historical series, there were 989,924 cases of dengue fever. In the same 17 weeks of 2024, this number exceeded 4 million.\n\n [Why did dengue fever increase so much in 2024?](https://drauziovarella.uol.com.br/infectologia/por-que-a-dengue-aumentou-tanto-em-2024/)\n\n [Dengue: Did climate, stagnant water and government failures cause an explosion in cases?](https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/infomaterias/2024/02/dengue-clima-agua-parada-e-falhas-do-poder-publico-causaram-explosao-de-casos)\n\n [Number of dengue cases in 2024 more than triples compared to the same period in 2023](https://g1.globo.com/saude/noticia/2024/01/30/numero-de-casos-de-dengue-em-2024-e-quase-o-triplo-do-registrado-no-mesmo-periodo-do-ano-passado.ghtml)", "resolution_criteria": "The answer \"YES\" will be considered if the sum of national cases registered until the end of March 2025 is greater than the sum of cases registered in the same period in 2024.\n\n **Data sources:**\n\n 1. Widely disseminated media outlets, such as [Folha de São Paulo](https://www.folha.uol.com.br/), [Estadão](https://www.estadao.com.br/), [G1](https://g1.globo.com/) or other reliable sources not explicitly mentioned.\n 2. Official data made available by the Brazilian government, especially by [Monitoramento de Arboviroses-Ministério da Saúde.](https://www.gov.br/saude/pt-br/assuntos/saude-de-aaz/a/aedes-aegypti/monitoramento-das-arboviroses)\n 3. In the absence of direct comparisons between the figures for the first quarter of 2024 and 2025, the comparison will be carried out manually using the data published by the [INFODENGUE](https://info.dengue.mat.br/) system.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31075, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743361957.828049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743361957.828049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3498561884557304 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.233434797906112, 1.8922203663358692, 1.2842030998708467, 0.4318388844941813, 0.25299720042374624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33159005549989273, 0.37869985978142146, 0.6347742095075863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15233370519142436, 0.07958982389610866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010950255389679295, 0.0, 0.07924244173474321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11304871569286994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4709557666134667, 0.0, 0.8849072955921794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003871524360302494, 0.0, 0.7198887146769624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8493338477039221, 0.0, 0.5667361002039807, 0.0, 0.000273086386076112, 0.1566193716946359, 0.0, 0.8647922575746317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13741529704998368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899675970855674, 0.0, 0.21045185030486618, 0.07217460967441632, 1.0958428873609243, 0.5357283290347786, 0.001784123526449647, 0.0, 0.7503365594718618, 0.642999531938544, 0.21036143226261078, 0.31711584873657844, 0.1442044549268858, 0.00021265388654049196, 0.6555950471132878, 0.0, 0.00809236702524946, 0.13905321429875794, 0.16649336551941638, 0.00312744700835141, 0.4687890803505711, 0.0634653895389058, 0.4859084790840744, 0.1659104657274692, 0.553135750425301, 0.00016275301845485642, 0.006417554732277106, 3.267736224334672e-05, 0.0012658977098318988, 0.19239626601972257, 0.029721681934897465, 0.014830910260607214, 0.024612024282760693, 0.0028165375179094, 0.09521120433469431, 0.05631902555880499, 0.014090594028765578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024385660820309695, 0.015867611909399833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6759278750029081 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -63.621235421935346, "peer_score": 87.40788192977524, "coverage": 0.9897897368826908, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9970207279296059, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -63.621235421935346, "peer_archived_score": 87.40788192977524, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 346, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brazil has historically faced high rates of dengue cases, especially during the summer, when weather conditions such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall favor the proliferation of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Dengue hemorrhagic fever, a severe form of the disease, is a growing concern due to the increase in the simultaneous circulation of multiple serotypes of the virus.\n\n Factors that can influence the risk of an epidemic include:\n\n 1. **Weather Conditions:** Above-average rainfall may increase vector reproduction. Meteorological data for early 2025 indicate the possibility of an El Niño phenomenon, which will impact rainfall patterns in the country.\n 2. **Virus Serotypes:** The simultaneous circulation of more than one serotype increases the likelihood of serious infections, such as dengue hemorrhagic fever. In 2024, records indicated an increase in cases of serotypes that had not circulated widely in recent years, such as DENV-3.\n 3. **Health System Capacity:** Overloading of the health system or failures in vector control may aggravate the situation. In 2024, there were delays in the distribution of larvicides and a reduction in prevention campaigns in some regions.\n 4. **Epidemiological Trends:** Data from the Ministry of Health show a consistent increase in the number of dengue cases in previous years, especially in the period from January to March.\n\n Brazil has faced outbreaks of hemorrhagic dengue fever in the past. In the first half of 2023, the year with the worst rates of the disease since the beginning of the historical series, there were 989,924 cases of dengue fever. In the same 17 weeks of 2024, this number exceeded 4 million.\n\n [Why did dengue fever increase so much in 2024?](https://drauziovarella.uol.com.br/infectologia/por-que-a-dengue-aumentou-tanto-em-2024/)\n\n [Dengue: Did climate, stagnant water and government failures cause an explosion in cases?](https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/infomaterias/2024/02/dengue-clima-agua-parada-e-falhas-do-poder-publico-causaram-explosao-de-casos)\n\n [Number of dengue cases in 2024 more than triples compared to the same period in 2023](https://g1.globo.com/saude/noticia/2024/01/30/numero-de-casos-de-dengue-em-2024-e-quase-o-triplo-do-registrado-no-mesmo-periodo-do-ano-passado.ghtml)" }, { "id": 31073, "title": "Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "IM-2 mission successful before April 2025?", "url_title": "IM-2 mission successful before April 2025?", "slug": "im-2-mission-successful-before-april-2025", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-16T16:57:59.655991Z", "published_at": "2025-01-17T15:19:49.245483Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.452799Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-17T15:19:49.245481Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-07T14:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-07T14:29:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 121, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30819, "title": "Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-16T16:57:59.656411Z", "open_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-07T14:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-08T02:45:37.720984Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-07T14:29:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After two slow decades at the beginning of the 21st century, the rate of missions to the Moon [has significantly accelerated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#21st_century_uncrewed_soft_landings_and_attempts). Two missions have already landed on the Moon in 2024 and many more are planned.\n\nOne of them was Intuitive Machines' Nova-C lander, which was the first made by a commercial company to land on the Moon, during the IM-1 mission. An obstacle was however encountered and the satellite stumbled on its side. Two missions are planned for this year with the same lander class that plans to deliver NASA payloads.\n\nIM-2 was planned [for January](https://spacenews.com/ice-hunting-lunar-trailblazer-im2-nearly-ready-january-2025-launch/) but has likely been delayed to [February](https://www.rocketlaunch.live/launch/im-2). Among the payloads of IM-2 are a [mass spectrometer, a rover and a drill](https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/the-im-2-moon-mission-will-carry-a-blend-of-science-and-art/) that will search the lunar South Pole for water ice.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, an Intuitive Machines lander has perfectly landed and the payload is delivered in a fully working state on the Moon. Otherwise it will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, a perfect landing will be defined as one which results in the lander remaining largely intact, able to communicate with the Earth, and which does not prevent its payload from being able to carry out its intended mission.\n\nEvery one of the payloads must be able to work as intended for at least 24 hours following the landing. A payload that does not fulfill this will not resolve this question as **No** if 1) Intuitive Machines does not take responsibility for the failure and 2) any other party takes responsibility.", "post_id": 31073, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741401599.634862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741401599.634862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.21520049783514247 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.995011207469538, 1.9159689351715585, 0.6976045232148063, 0.0, 1.0, 1.1393623807745767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5687248047066669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5500327500082562, 0.025874510687245507, 0.3248049114922376, 0.001185942719911764, 0.0, 0.7594915526151246, 0.10582841710630944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020648529180236237, 0.7195438943335084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0442825336702615, 0.0, 0.2033409659570754, 0.0, 0.01588560854541546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06553108672042285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012164814720150638, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03030717792890102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036748031277934655, 0.012006953225304347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30704145588894727, 0.04111875218002038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49485285636663634, 0.03814939591291599, 0.32748588551104474, 0.07284764691086593, 0.26511630366325967, 0.13125562233097632, 0.15925681544335368, 0.007450345017332388, 0.032753212234852405, 0.014369596090439089, 0.004017677758250377, 0.0007075207321053673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13192956957730895, 0.5963967347889987, 0.37153847758290115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32729771097077975, 0.05505101728945746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16940609254472613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21590977405535652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31455199921403443 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -20.720523893063344, "peer_score": -0.46730918866772797, "coverage": 0.6630934951393931, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996172781946862, "spot_peer_score": 6.122619518468425, "spot_baseline_score": 2.856915219677092, "baseline_archived_score": -20.720523893063344, "peer_archived_score": -0.46730918866772797, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.122619518468425, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 2.856915219677092 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 695, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After two slow decades at the beginning of the 21st century, the rate of missions to the Moon [has significantly accelerated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#21st_century_uncrewed_soft_landings_and_attempts). Two missions have already landed on the Moon in 2024 and many more are planned.\n\nOne of them was Intuitive Machines' Nova-C lander, which was the first made by a commercial company to land on the Moon, during the IM-1 mission. An obstacle was however encountered and the satellite stumbled on its side. Two missions are planned for this year with the same lander class that plans to deliver NASA payloads.\n\nIM-2 was planned [for January](https://spacenews.com/ice-hunting-lunar-trailblazer-im2-nearly-ready-january-2025-launch/) but has likely been delayed to [February](https://www.rocketlaunch.live/launch/im-2). Among the payloads of IM-2 are a [mass spectrometer, a rover and a drill](https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/the-im-2-moon-mission-will-carry-a-blend-of-science-and-art/) that will search the lunar South Pole for water ice." }, { "id": 31071, "title": "Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?", "short_title": "Israel found guilty in SA's ICJ genocide case before 2027?", "url_title": "Israel found guilty in SA's ICJ genocide case before 2027?", "slug": "israel-found-guilty-in-sas-icj-genocide-case-before-2027", "author_id": 202409, "author_username": "EdwardStoppard", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-16T14:46:54.645074Z", "published_at": "2024-12-23T11:24:31.416673Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T20:11:11.724827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-23T11:24:31.416671Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T14:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-25T11:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T14:54:31.020802Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T14:54:31.020802Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30817, "title": "Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?", "created_at": "2024-12-16T14:46:54.645487Z", "open_time": "2024-12-25T11:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-28T11:23:32Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-28T11:23:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T14:46:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T14:46:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case before the International Court of Justice?\n\nThis forecasting question pertains to the [<u>ongoing legal proceedings initiated by South Africa against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ)</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192). The case alleges that Israel has committed acts of genocide against the Palestinian population, invoking the [<u>1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide</u>](https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf), to which both [<u>countries are signatories</u>](https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY\\&mtdsg_no=IV-1\\&chapter=4).\n\nThe case, filed in [<u>December 2023</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231229-pre-01-00-en.pdf), emerges amidst heightened tensions following the Israel-Gaza [<u>war</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#:~:text=An%20armed%20conflict%20between%20Israel,Yom%20Kippur%20War%20in%201973.), which have intensified global scrutiny of Israel's policies in the occupied territories. South Africa’s government, historically vocal in its support for Palestinian self-determination, argues that Israel’s actions meet the legal criteria for genocide as defined in Article II of the Genocide Convention. Along with South Africa, at least [<u>14 other countries</u>](https://unric.org/en/south-africa-vs-israel-14-other-countries-intend-to-join-the-icj-case/) have joined the suit.\n\nIsrael has strongly denied the allegations, calling them “[<u>baseless</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-781745)” and politically motivated. Its representatives argue that the measures taken in the West Bank and Gaza Strip are consistent with its [<u>right to </u>](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art51/english/rep_supp3_vol2_art51.pdf)<u>self-defence</u> and do not meet the legal threshold for genocide. For its part, the ICJ is tasked with [<u>determining whether the case has merit</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240126-sum-01-00-en.pdf) and, ultimately, whether Israel’s actions constitute a violation of international law.\n\nThe resolution of this question is uncertain, given the legal, political, and evidentiary complexities involved. The ICJ’s verdict is expected to depend on a combination of the submitted evidence, legal arguments, and the broader context of international law enforcement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the International Court of Justice finds that Israel has violated international law in South Africa's genocide case. If this does not happen before January 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Any potential judgement by the ICJ in a different case regarding Israel will be immaterial for the purposes of this question.", "post_id": 31071, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757690611.453484, "end_time": 1760651527.57967, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757690611.453484, "end_time": 1760651527.57967, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36019702054370567 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.183045852279854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48768207702071453, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case before the International Court of Justice?\n\nThis forecasting question pertains to the [<u>ongoing legal proceedings initiated by South Africa against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ)</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192). The case alleges that Israel has committed acts of genocide against the Palestinian population, invoking the [<u>1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide</u>](https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf), to which both [<u>countries are signatories</u>](https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY\\&mtdsg_no=IV-1\\&chapter=4).\n\nThe case, filed in [<u>December 2023</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231229-pre-01-00-en.pdf), emerges amidst heightened tensions following the Israel-Gaza [<u>war</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#:~:text=An%20armed%20conflict%20between%20Israel,Yom%20Kippur%20War%20in%201973.), which have intensified global scrutiny of Israel's policies in the occupied territories. South Africa’s government, historically vocal in its support for Palestinian self-determination, argues that Israel’s actions meet the legal criteria for genocide as defined in Article II of the Genocide Convention. Along with South Africa, at least [<u>14 other countries</u>](https://unric.org/en/south-africa-vs-israel-14-other-countries-intend-to-join-the-icj-case/) have joined the suit.\n\nIsrael has strongly denied the allegations, calling them “[<u>baseless</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-781745)” and politically motivated. Its representatives argue that the measures taken in the West Bank and Gaza Strip are consistent with its [<u>right to </u>](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art51/english/rep_supp3_vol2_art51.pdf)<u>self-defence</u> and do not meet the legal threshold for genocide. For its part, the ICJ is tasked with [<u>determining whether the case has merit</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240126-sum-01-00-en.pdf) and, ultimately, whether Israel’s actions constitute a violation of international law.\n\nThe resolution of this question is uncertain, given the legal, political, and evidentiary complexities involved. The ICJ’s verdict is expected to depend on a combination of the submitted evidence, legal arguments, and the broader context of international law enforcement." }, { "id": 31068, "title": "Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?", "short_title": "Will EVs be >10% of new car sales in US before Oct 2025?", "url_title": "Will EVs be >10% of new car sales in US before Oct 2025?", "slug": "will-evs-be-10-of-new-car-sales-in-us-before-oct-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-16T00:56:05.952232Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:00:04.210032Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T17:00:29.265888Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:00:04.210030Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 249, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30815, "title": "Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-16T00:56:05.952611Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T19:59:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T19:59:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/electric-cars-pass-adoption-tipping-point-in-31-countries?srnd=green), once 5% of new car sales are fully electric, it can be a pivotal tipping point, signaling the start of mass adoption of a new technology:\n\n> New technologies — from televisions to smartwatches — follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl during the early-adopter phase, before hooking into a wave of mainstream acceptance. The transition often hinges on overcoming initial barriers such as cost, a lack of infrastructure and consumer skepticism. The tipping point signals the flattening of these barriers. While each country’s journey to 5% plays out differently, timelines converge in the years that follow.\n\n> “Once enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,” said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. “More EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.\n\nMarket shares in other countries have been as follows:\n\n| Country | EV sales in Q4 2023 | EV market shr Q4 '24 (%) | First quarter at 5% tipping point |\n| ----------- | ------------------: | -----------------------: | --------------------------------: |\n| Norway | 25,028 | 79.6 | 2013 Q3 |\n| Iceland | 3,507 | 58.4 | 2019 Q1 |\n| Denmark | 21,890 | 44.9 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Sweden | 31,780 | 39.8 | 2020 Q1 |\n| Finland | 6,686 | 35.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Netherlands | 29,199 | 35.1 | 2018 Q4 |\n| Ireland | 1,164 | 33.9 | 2019 Q4 |\n| Belgium | 25,752 | 25.3 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Portugal | 11,265 | 24.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Switzerland | 16,581 | 23.9 | 2020 Q1 |\n| China | 1,879,600 | 23.8 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Austria | 13,083 | 23.3 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Israel | 6,772 | 22.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| France | 98,755 | 20.3 | 2020 Q1 |\n| New Zealand | 7,435 | 20.0 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Germany | 138,390 | 19.6 | 2020 Q3 |\n| UK | 79,602 | 17.6 | 2020 Q2 |\n| Thailand | 23,864 | 12.6 | 2023 Q1 |\n| Turkey | 36,026 | 12.0 | 2023 Q3 |\n| Romania | 3,655 | 10.8 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Slovenia | 1,126 | 10.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Australia | 21,571 | 9.5 | 2022 Q3 |\n| Canada | 38,160 | 9.4 | 2022 Q1 |\n| Spain | 20,666 | 8.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| US | 313,822 | 8.1 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Estonia | 400 | 7.5 | 2023 Q2 |\n| South Korea | 36,009 | 6.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Hungary | 1,614 | 6.5 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Bulgaria | 551 | 5.8 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Italy | 21,033 | 5.4 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Greece | 1,579 | 5.3 | 2023 Q2 |\n\nArgonne National Laboratory tracks monthly electric vehicle sales figures in its [Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV) exceed 10% of total light-duty vehicle sales (LDV) in the United States for any complete month before the sales figures reported for October 2025, according to [Argonne National Laboratory's Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates - Historical Data](https://www.anl.gov/esia/reference/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates-historical-data). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Specifically, for each month the figure for BEV will be divided by the figure for Total LDV, as shown in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wc76loC5c06K0gB9GAOK9R47rhlLwBFgxAI88YEZHko/edit?gid=2032607654#gid=2032607654). \n\nIf Argonne National Laboratory ceases to timely update its data, Admins may name a different resolution source, as long as its methodology and numbers are substantially similar.\n\nPlease note that Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) are a separate category from Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) or Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV). This question specifically excludes the hybrids and is asking only about BEV as a percentage of total light-duty vehicle sales.", "post_id": 31068, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757955619.040633, "end_time": 1758142505.693, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757955619.040633, "end_time": 1758142505.693, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2559057650844474 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3560821950728326, 0.9245796032452149, 0.7933330202972507, 0.2893890674991576, 0.24949863371631037, 1.1651050320956946, 0.0, 0.0631635962506171, 0.6297877885187471, 0.21714140727790088, 2.053198856692381, 0.537327422693546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.399005867437241, 0.0024716391381802813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2662907945611738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7580871149292656, 0.3319092663269885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3613918600883169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8317611771326002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8960435594115131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6035675272062923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022822997644283576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009788977028033815, 0.0004303387677233397, 0.0, 0.18603199268747062, 1.623682548553615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021014002097153586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2677080815853848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000591351133574298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012117839732328766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0002843935925754 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 732, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/electric-cars-pass-adoption-tipping-point-in-31-countries?srnd=green), once 5% of new car sales are fully electric, it can be a pivotal tipping point, signaling the start of mass adoption of a new technology:\n\n> New technologies — from televisions to smartwatches — follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl during the early-adopter phase, before hooking into a wave of mainstream acceptance. The transition often hinges on overcoming initial barriers such as cost, a lack of infrastructure and consumer skepticism. The tipping point signals the flattening of these barriers. While each country’s journey to 5% plays out differently, timelines converge in the years that follow.\n\n> “Once enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,” said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. “More EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.\n\nMarket shares in other countries have been as follows:\n\n| Country | EV sales in Q4 2023 | EV market shr Q4 '24 (%) | First quarter at 5% tipping point |\n| ----------- | ------------------: | -----------------------: | --------------------------------: |\n| Norway | 25,028 | 79.6 | 2013 Q3 |\n| Iceland | 3,507 | 58.4 | 2019 Q1 |\n| Denmark | 21,890 | 44.9 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Sweden | 31,780 | 39.8 | 2020 Q1 |\n| Finland | 6,686 | 35.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Netherlands | 29,199 | 35.1 | 2018 Q4 |\n| Ireland | 1,164 | 33.9 | 2019 Q4 |\n| Belgium | 25,752 | 25.3 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Portugal | 11,265 | 24.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Switzerland | 16,581 | 23.9 | 2020 Q1 |\n| China | 1,879,600 | 23.8 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Austria | 13,083 | 23.3 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Israel | 6,772 | 22.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| France | 98,755 | 20.3 | 2020 Q1 |\n| New Zealand | 7,435 | 20.0 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Germany | 138,390 | 19.6 | 2020 Q3 |\n| UK | 79,602 | 17.6 | 2020 Q2 |\n| Thailand | 23,864 | 12.6 | 2023 Q1 |\n| Turkey | 36,026 | 12.0 | 2023 Q3 |\n| Romania | 3,655 | 10.8 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Slovenia | 1,126 | 10.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Australia | 21,571 | 9.5 | 2022 Q3 |\n| Canada | 38,160 | 9.4 | 2022 Q1 |\n| Spain | 20,666 | 8.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| US | 313,822 | 8.1 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Estonia | 400 | 7.5 | 2023 Q2 |\n| South Korea | 36,009 | 6.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Hungary | 1,614 | 6.5 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Bulgaria | 551 | 5.8 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Italy | 21,033 | 5.4 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Greece | 1,579 | 5.3 | 2023 Q2 |\n\nArgonne National Laboratory tracks monthly electric vehicle sales figures in its [Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." } ] }
