Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=140
{ "count": 5510, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=160", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=120", "results": [ { "id": 37873, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for overtime income in tax year 2026?", "short_title": "Will \"no tax on overtime\" pass in the US?", "url_title": "Will \"no tax on overtime\" pass in the US?", "slug": "will-no-tax-on-overtime-pass-in-the-us", "author_id": 120689, "author_username": "dylan.matthews", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:02:37.700140Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T13:16:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T21:49:16.452464Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-23T13:17:07Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-07T21:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:16:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T10:00:50.664231Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T10:00:50.664231Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37193, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for overtime income in tax year 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:02:37.700595Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:16:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-28T13:16:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T21:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-07T21:49:16.414354Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-07T21:47:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nThe proposal to create a tax deduction for overtime income has gained traction since President Trump [<u>proposed it during the 2024 campaign</u>](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/donald-trumps-proposal-end-taxes-overtime). In May 2025, a group of Republican Senators, led by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), [<u>introduced the \"Overtime Wages Tax Relief Act,\"</u>](https://www.marshall.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/senators-marshall-tuberville-and-colleagues-introduce-legislation-to-cut-taxes-on-overtime-wages/) which would establish an above-the-line deduction for overtime wages earned by workers across various industries. Supporters argue that the deduction would benefit middle-class workers who take on extra hours to support their families, while critics cite concerns about its estimated [<u>\\$680 billion cost</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-overtime-tax-exemption/) over ten years and potential inequities in who receives the benefit.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation allows taxpayers to deduct \"overtime premium pay\" as defined by the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a reconciliation bill passed during fiscal year 2025 includes a provision allowing for an above-the-line deduction for overtime compensation. If the bill does not include such a provision, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf no such reconciliation bill is enacted before the end of fiscal year 2025 (before October 1, 2025), this question will be **annulled**.\n\nThe question will resolve according to the text of the enacted reconciliation bill (See [<u>section 110102 of the \"One, Big, Beautiful Bill\"</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf#page=12) as marked up by the House Ways and Means Committee for an example of what this might look like).", "fine_print": "* This question is asking whether the bill includes any form of deduction specifically for overtime income. The specific implementation details (amount limitations, qualifying workers, etc.) are not relevant to the resolution.\n* The provision must be effective for tax year 2026 to qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n* For purposes of this question, \"overtime income\" refers to compensation paid in excess of regular rates as defined under fair labor standards legislation.\n* Metaculus may use reports from [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) of the bill text. In the event the bill text is not available within three months after the passage of the bill, or in the event it is unclear whether an overtime income deduction is included, Metaculus may use reporting and estimates from other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 37873, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751865528.990366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751865528.990366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7121687360937281 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.43464537951506, "peer_score": 14.596682349769013, "coverage": 0.34058972762364687, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9939990340531295, "spot_peer_score": 31.9822791234597, "spot_baseline_score": 40.053792958372874, "baseline_archived_score": 12.43464537951506, "peer_archived_score": 14.596682349769013, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.9822791234597, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 40.053792958372874 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nThe proposal to create a tax deduction for overtime income has gained traction since President Trump [<u>proposed it during the 2024 campaign</u>](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/donald-trumps-proposal-end-taxes-overtime). In May 2025, a group of Republican Senators, led by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), [<u>introduced the \"Overtime Wages Tax Relief Act,\"</u>](https://www.marshall.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/senators-marshall-tuberville-and-colleagues-introduce-legislation-to-cut-taxes-on-overtime-wages/) which would establish an above-the-line deduction for overtime wages earned by workers across various industries. Supporters argue that the deduction would benefit middle-class workers who take on extra hours to support their families, while critics cite concerns about its estimated [<u>\\$680 billion cost</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-overtime-tax-exemption/) over ten years and potential inequities in who receives the benefit.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation allows taxpayers to deduct \"overtime premium pay\" as defined by the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938." }, { "id": 37872, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for tip income in tax year 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US pass \"no tax on tips\"?", "url_title": "Will the US pass \"no tax on tips\"?", "slug": "will-the-us-pass-no-tax-on-tips", "author_id": 120689, "author_username": "dylan.matthews", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:01:43.739492Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T13:20:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T22:07:15.987884Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-23T13:21:02Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-07T22:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:20:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T10:00:50.664231Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T10:00:50.664231Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37192, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for tip income in tax year 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:01:43.739922Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:20:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-28T13:20:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T22:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-07T22:07:15.947673Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-07T22:04:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nDuring his 2024 campaign, President Trump [<u>promised to eliminate taxes on tips</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/09/trump-tipped-wage-tax-cut/) for service workers, a proposal that resonated with restaurant and hospitality workers. Critics argue that the benefit would [<u>help very few Americans</u>](https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/exempting-tips-federal-income-tax-would-benefit-very-few-workers) and not target benefits to low-income workers, while [<u>supporters</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/12/politics/taxes-on-tips-eliminate-proposal-harris) contend it would provide tax relief to millions of hardworking Americans in the service industry.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation allows taxpayers to deduct \"qualified tips\" received in the course of working in an occupation \"which traditionally and customarily receives tips.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the reconciliation bill passed during fiscal year 2025 includes a provision allowing for an above-the-line deduction for qualified tips received by individuals in tipped occupations. If the bill does not include such a provision, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf no such reconciliation bill is enacted before the end of fiscal year 2025 (before October 1, 2025), this question will be **annulled**.\n\nThe question will resolve according to the text of the enacted reconciliation bill (See [<u>section 110101 of the \"One, Big, Beautiful Bill\"</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf#page=11) as marked up by the House Ways and Means Committee for an example of what this might look like).", "fine_print": "* This question is asking whether the bill includes any form of deduction specifically for tip income. The specific implementation details (amount limitations, qualifying occupations, etc.) are not relevant to the resolution.\n* The provision must be effective for tax year 2026 to qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n* Metaculus may use reports from [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) for the bill text. In the event the bill text is not available within three months after the passage of the bill, or in the event it is unclear whether a tip income deduction is included, Metaculus may use reporting and estimates from other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 37872, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751870432.693501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751870432.693501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8121782480822397 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5938287972603064, 0.12874931591104752, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4697891025791026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9707370048979824, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 19.002691564690256, "peer_score": 3.61819227936915, "coverage": 0.3406865839904239, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9940612806235536, "spot_peer_score": -11.54221549251023, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830478, "baseline_archived_score": 19.002691564690256, "peer_archived_score": 3.61819227936915, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.54221549251023, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830478 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nDuring his 2024 campaign, President Trump [<u>promised to eliminate taxes on tips</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/09/trump-tipped-wage-tax-cut/) for service workers, a proposal that resonated with restaurant and hospitality workers. Critics argue that the benefit would [<u>help very few Americans</u>](https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/exempting-tips-federal-income-tax-would-benefit-very-few-workers) and not target benefits to low-income workers, while [<u>supporters</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/12/politics/taxes-on-tips-eliminate-proposal-harris) contend it would provide tax relief to millions of hardworking Americans in the service industry.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation allows taxpayers to deduct \"qualified tips\" received in the course of working in an occupation \"which traditionally and customarily receives tips.\"" }, { "id": 37843, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Discord announce that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-july-1-2025-will-discord-announce-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.549829Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:16.512868Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37165, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Discord announce that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.549829Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T00:08:42.448823Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ars Technica: [Discord is planning an IPO this year, and big changes could be on the horizon](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2025/03/report-discord-partners-with-jp-morgan-chase-goldman-sachs-for-a-2025-ipo/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Discord, Inc., announces before July 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) The company filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [news](https://discord.com/blog) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that for an announcement on the news section of the company's website to resolve the question as Yes, the announcement must be specific. Vague statements such as \"someday becoming a public company\" will not count. If there is any doubt, then greater weight will be placed on whether an S-1 has been filed.", "post_id": 37843, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748042238.831908, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748042238.831908, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6122609184050651 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20519356765151792, 0.41646135976017457, 0.0, 0.6766518922091762, 0.0, 0.0003354626279025118, 0.02451433138720702, 0.0, 0.03568014947222045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045779439086610973, 0.0, 0.019470318897016014, 0.3243305309355069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.278242796542821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42144192518522827, 0.0, 0.14605267840118027, 0.0, 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"spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ars Technica: [Discord is planning an IPO this year, and big changes could be on the horizon](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2025/03/report-discord-partners-with-jp-morgan-chase-goldman-sachs-for-a-2025-ipo/)" }, { "id": 37842, "title": "Will Amazon still list a 12-pack of Coca-Cola as \"SNAP EBT eligible\" on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-amazon-still-list-a-12-pack-of-coca-cola-as-snap-ebt-eligible-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.402986Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:57.851116Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37164, "title": "Will Amazon still list a 12-pack of Coca-Cola as \"SNAP EBT eligible\" on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.402986Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-17T19:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-17T19:12:44.790239Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "WSJ: [Coke, PepsiCo Lobby to Keep Sugary Sodas in Food-Stamp Program](https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/rfk-jr-soda-snap-food-stamps-coke-pepsi-9bd9a872)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a 12-page of Coca-Cola at [this link](https://www.amazon.com/Coca-Cola-Soda-Soft-Drink-Pack/dp/B000T9WLTK?ref_=ast_sto_dp&th=1), when accessed by Metaculus from the United States on or after July 1, 2025, is listed using the exact phrase \"SNAP EBT eligible\"(forecasters please note that it *is* listed as such on May 4, 2025). If it is *not* listed as SNAP EBT eligible when checked by Metataculus on or after July 1, 2025, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The link in the resolution criteria is provided for convenience, but if Amazon's primary listing for a 12-pack of canned Coca-Cola appears elsewhere, then that will be used for resolution. In order to streamline resolution, synonyms or rephrasings will not count; the phrase must specifically be \"SNAP EBT eligible\".", "post_id": 37842, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748034925.848047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748034925.848047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8292509124149094 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21695324208907182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9454658663642979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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in Food-Stamp Program](https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/rfk-jr-soda-snap-food-stamps-coke-pepsi-9bd9a872)" }, { "id": 37841, "title": "Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kneecap-perform-at-glastonbury-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.397720Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:42.295406Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, 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J. Ó Dochartaigh) whose songs consist of rap in a mixture of Irish Gaelic and English giving them a unique style.\n\nNamed after a [torture technique](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecapping) made infamous by the Irish Republican Army, the group are no stranger to controversies. Whilst most have been minor - complaints about profanity, drug use, violence in their songs, music videos and concerts, and promotion of Irish Republicanism - the band have come under a large amount of controversy resulting in cancelled performances which initially stemmed from a Coachcella performance where the band, \"described Israel's military action in Gaza as a US-funded genocide\". \n\nOn top of this, [two reports were made](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly5r4gg7l6o) to the UK Metropolitan police:\n\n> \\[...] the band allegedly call for the death of Conservative MPs. Another seems to show a band member shouting \"up Hamas, up Hezbollah\". Both groups are banned in the UK and it is a crime to express support for them.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> They claimed that footage where they appeared to say \"the only good Tory is a dead Tory\" had been \"taken out of all context\", and apologised for the hurt caused to the families of murdered MPs Jo Cox and Sir David Amess.\n\nThe band are [due](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/line-up/) to play at Glastonbury 2025 - the UK's largest and most prestigious music festival - however there have been [calls](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/30/kneecap-should-be-banned-full-stop-after-dead-tories-video/) for the band to be removed from the lineup.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kneecap officially performs at Glastonbury 2025, scheduled for June 25 to June 29, 2025.", "fine_print": "* If Glastonbury 2025 does not take place before September 1, 2025 this question will be **annulled**.\n* Officially perform is defined as a planned performance as allowed by the festival organisers.\n* Any official performance is considered sufficient for this question. 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Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts greater than 400 UFO/UAP sighting reports at [this link](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) for the month of June 2025, as displayed when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37837, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747984670.467125, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3755759712140315 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747984670.467125, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3755759712140315 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.31446125822660426 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1130426062565061, 0.0, 0.7125982721316562, 0.17433684005092911, 0.12211553853510328, 0.0, 0.0, 2.001453478518637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8245269462455034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8676179093902499, 0.36269734845126494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1903329969442877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4951761874784477, 0.0, 1.7937487577855578, 0.13100237621305458, 0.9451292853160638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15798149845717946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0175765062607272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.8929452323661959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08331970693963144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7011277469733959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2622754525086275, 0.0, 0.2035312230718478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013492534825694926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2144400238150099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 53.15607413069486, "peer_score": 5.94925531875684, "coverage": 0.9854599670900237, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9854599670900237, "spot_peer_score": 3.1622074580849926, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 53.15607413069486, "peer_archived_score": 5.94925531875684, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.1622074580849926, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. 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Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"" }, { "id": 37836, "title": "Will there be greater than 31 direct flight destinations from Erbil, Iraq on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-greater-than-31-direct-flight-destinations-from-erbil-iraq-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.237732Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:18.743657Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 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Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts a report of a sighting of a UFO/UAP shaped like a cube in June 2025 at [this link](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "For example, although rare in the history of NUFORC, the month of December 2024 [had](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=e202412) six sightings with a cube shape.", "post_id": 37813, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747805419.281641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747805419.281641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.2512548314613604 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.5935735468969371, 0.17433684005092911, 0.0, 1.0857358715749945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1394820725083266, 0.0, 0.041956810111431826, 0.8929452323661959, 0.15134482788356746, 1.1763299495252282, 0.6683702162141048, 0.0, 0.14974273503116875, 1.162437690328545, 0.08685842761080065, 0.0, 0.2144400238150099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7694824287637623, 0.0, 0.21896262191675547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19414146028744744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5175701831426534, 1.3387879818050314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43782470350779906, 0.14085966230613312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34029419999880384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022614253091566634, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09445334520824408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08331970693963144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6345179599839332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7513609248868253, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010788274017922025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18691676533295776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -138.98808260487198, "peer_score": -14.900055844965628, "coverage": 0.9792892124917771, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9792892124917771, "spot_peer_score": -12.329231311471206, "spot_baseline_score": -139.59286763311394, "baseline_archived_score": -138.98808260487198, "peer_archived_score": -14.900055844965628, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.329231311471206, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -139.59286763311394 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"" }, { "id": 37812, "title": "Will there be greater than 51 direct flight destinations from Beirut, Lebanon on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-greater-than-51-direct-flight-destinations-from-beirut-lebanon-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.996448Z", "published_at": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:15.914626Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ 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"start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37134, "title": "Will there be greater than 51 direct flight destinations from Beirut, Lebanon on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.996448Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:20:13.927310Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Catholic News Agency: [Lebanon will soon have its own ‘camino,’ once traveled by Christ and the Romans](https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/263055/caminos-lebanon-new-initiative-is-designed-to-revive-religious-tourism-in-the-country) | Travel and Tour World: [Lebanon’s Hospitality Sector In Peril: Rising Costs And Low Tourism Threaten Survival](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/lebanons-hospitality-sector-in-peril-rising-costs-and-low-tourism-threaten-survival/) | The New Arab: [Summer canceIled: Israeli attack hits Lebanon tourism hopes](https://www.newarab.com/news/summer-canceiled-israeli-attack-hits-lebanon-tourism-hopes)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are greater than 51 direct flight destinations listed at the [All scheduled direct (non-stop) flights from Beirut (BEY)](https://www.flightsfrom.com/BEY) tracker when checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37812, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747798624.525008, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7140674794897715 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747798624.525008, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7140674794897715 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.5063655635986357 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 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"relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9834461755553878, "spot_peer_score": 9.728001939642178, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -7.907020247050982, "peer_archived_score": 12.893756098244474, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.728001939642178, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Catholic News Agency: [Lebanon will soon have its own ‘camino,’ once traveled by Christ and the Romans](https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/263055/caminos-lebanon-new-initiative-is-designed-to-revive-religious-tourism-in-the-country) | Travel and Tour World: [Lebanon’s Hospitality Sector In Peril: Rising Costs And Low Tourism Threaten Survival](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/lebanons-hospitality-sector-in-peril-rising-costs-and-low-tourism-threaten-survival/) | The New Arab: [Summer canceIled: Israeli attack hits Lebanon tourism hopes](https://www.newarab.com/news/summer-canceiled-israeli-attack-hits-lebanon-tourism-hopes)" } ] }
