Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1400
{ "count": 5909, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1420", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1380", "results": [ { "id": 31071, "title": "Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?", "short_title": "Israel found guilty in SA's ICJ genocide case before 2027?", "url_title": "Israel found guilty in SA's ICJ genocide case before 2027?", "slug": "israel-found-guilty-in-sas-icj-genocide-case-before-2027", "author_id": 202409, "author_username": "EdwardStoppard", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-16T14:46:54.645074Z", "published_at": "2024-12-23T11:24:31.416673Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T20:11:11.724827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-23T11:24:31.416671Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T14:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-25T11:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T14:54:31.020802Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T14:54:31.020802Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30817, "title": "Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?", "created_at": "2024-12-16T14:46:54.645487Z", "open_time": "2024-12-25T11:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-28T11:23:32Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-28T11:23:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T14:46:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T14:46:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case before the International Court of Justice?\n\nThis forecasting question pertains to the [<u>ongoing legal proceedings initiated by South Africa against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ)</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192). The case alleges that Israel has committed acts of genocide against the Palestinian population, invoking the [<u>1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide</u>](https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf), to which both [<u>countries are signatories</u>](https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY\\&mtdsg_no=IV-1\\&chapter=4).\n\nThe case, filed in [<u>December 2023</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231229-pre-01-00-en.pdf), emerges amidst heightened tensions following the Israel-Gaza [<u>war</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#:~:text=An%20armed%20conflict%20between%20Israel,Yom%20Kippur%20War%20in%201973.), which have intensified global scrutiny of Israel's policies in the occupied territories. South Africa’s government, historically vocal in its support for Palestinian self-determination, argues that Israel’s actions meet the legal criteria for genocide as defined in Article II of the Genocide Convention. Along with South Africa, at least [<u>14 other countries</u>](https://unric.org/en/south-africa-vs-israel-14-other-countries-intend-to-join-the-icj-case/) have joined the suit.\n\nIsrael has strongly denied the allegations, calling them “[<u>baseless</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-781745)” and politically motivated. Its representatives argue that the measures taken in the West Bank and Gaza Strip are consistent with its [<u>right to </u>](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art51/english/rep_supp3_vol2_art51.pdf)<u>self-defence</u> and do not meet the legal threshold for genocide. For its part, the ICJ is tasked with [<u>determining whether the case has merit</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240126-sum-01-00-en.pdf) and, ultimately, whether Israel’s actions constitute a violation of international law.\n\nThe resolution of this question is uncertain, given the legal, political, and evidentiary complexities involved. The ICJ’s verdict is expected to depend on a combination of the submitted evidence, legal arguments, and the broader context of international law enforcement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the International Court of Justice finds that Israel has violated international law in South Africa's genocide case. If this does not happen before January 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Any potential judgement by the ICJ in a different case regarding Israel will be immaterial for the purposes of this question.", "post_id": 31071, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757690611.453484, "end_time": 1760651527.57967, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757690611.453484, "end_time": 1760651527.57967, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36019702054370567 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.183045852279854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48768207702071453, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case before the International Court of Justice?\n\nThis forecasting question pertains to the [<u>ongoing legal proceedings initiated by South Africa against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ)</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192). The case alleges that Israel has committed acts of genocide against the Palestinian population, invoking the [<u>1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide</u>](https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf), to which both [<u>countries are signatories</u>](https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY\\&mtdsg_no=IV-1\\&chapter=4).\n\nThe case, filed in [<u>December 2023</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231229-pre-01-00-en.pdf), emerges amidst heightened tensions following the Israel-Gaza [<u>war</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#:~:text=An%20armed%20conflict%20between%20Israel,Yom%20Kippur%20War%20in%201973.), which have intensified global scrutiny of Israel's policies in the occupied territories. South Africa’s government, historically vocal in its support for Palestinian self-determination, argues that Israel’s actions meet the legal criteria for genocide as defined in Article II of the Genocide Convention. Along with South Africa, at least [<u>14 other countries</u>](https://unric.org/en/south-africa-vs-israel-14-other-countries-intend-to-join-the-icj-case/) have joined the suit.\n\nIsrael has strongly denied the allegations, calling them “[<u>baseless</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-781745)” and politically motivated. Its representatives argue that the measures taken in the West Bank and Gaza Strip are consistent with its [<u>right to </u>](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art51/english/rep_supp3_vol2_art51.pdf)<u>self-defence</u> and do not meet the legal threshold for genocide. For its part, the ICJ is tasked with [<u>determining whether the case has merit</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240126-sum-01-00-en.pdf) and, ultimately, whether Israel’s actions constitute a violation of international law.\n\nThe resolution of this question is uncertain, given the legal, political, and evidentiary complexities involved. The ICJ’s verdict is expected to depend on a combination of the submitted evidence, legal arguments, and the broader context of international law enforcement." }, { "id": 31068, "title": "Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?", "short_title": "Will EVs be >10% of new car sales in US before Oct 2025?", "url_title": "Will EVs be >10% of new car sales in US before Oct 2025?", "slug": "will-evs-be-10-of-new-car-sales-in-us-before-oct-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-16T00:56:05.952232Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T20:00:04.210032Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T17:00:29.265888Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T20:00:04.210030Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 249, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30815, "title": "Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-16T00:56:05.952611Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T19:59:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T19:59:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/electric-cars-pass-adoption-tipping-point-in-31-countries?srnd=green), once 5% of new car sales are fully electric, it can be a pivotal tipping point, signaling the start of mass adoption of a new technology:\n\n> New technologies — from televisions to smartwatches — follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl during the early-adopter phase, before hooking into a wave of mainstream acceptance. The transition often hinges on overcoming initial barriers such as cost, a lack of infrastructure and consumer skepticism. The tipping point signals the flattening of these barriers. While each country’s journey to 5% plays out differently, timelines converge in the years that follow.\n\n> “Once enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,” said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. “More EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.\n\nMarket shares in other countries have been as follows:\n\n| Country | EV sales in Q4 2023 | EV market shr Q4 '24 (%) | First quarter at 5% tipping point |\n| ----------- | ------------------: | -----------------------: | --------------------------------: |\n| Norway | 25,028 | 79.6 | 2013 Q3 |\n| Iceland | 3,507 | 58.4 | 2019 Q1 |\n| Denmark | 21,890 | 44.9 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Sweden | 31,780 | 39.8 | 2020 Q1 |\n| Finland | 6,686 | 35.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Netherlands | 29,199 | 35.1 | 2018 Q4 |\n| Ireland | 1,164 | 33.9 | 2019 Q4 |\n| Belgium | 25,752 | 25.3 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Portugal | 11,265 | 24.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Switzerland | 16,581 | 23.9 | 2020 Q1 |\n| China | 1,879,600 | 23.8 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Austria | 13,083 | 23.3 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Israel | 6,772 | 22.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| France | 98,755 | 20.3 | 2020 Q1 |\n| New Zealand | 7,435 | 20.0 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Germany | 138,390 | 19.6 | 2020 Q3 |\n| UK | 79,602 | 17.6 | 2020 Q2 |\n| Thailand | 23,864 | 12.6 | 2023 Q1 |\n| Turkey | 36,026 | 12.0 | 2023 Q3 |\n| Romania | 3,655 | 10.8 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Slovenia | 1,126 | 10.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Australia | 21,571 | 9.5 | 2022 Q3 |\n| Canada | 38,160 | 9.4 | 2022 Q1 |\n| Spain | 20,666 | 8.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| US | 313,822 | 8.1 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Estonia | 400 | 7.5 | 2023 Q2 |\n| South Korea | 36,009 | 6.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Hungary | 1,614 | 6.5 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Bulgaria | 551 | 5.8 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Italy | 21,033 | 5.4 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Greece | 1,579 | 5.3 | 2023 Q2 |\n\nArgonne National Laboratory tracks monthly electric vehicle sales figures in its [Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV) exceed 10% of total light-duty vehicle sales (LDV) in the United States for any complete month before the sales figures reported for October 2025, according to [Argonne National Laboratory's Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates - Historical Data](https://www.anl.gov/esia/reference/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates-historical-data). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Specifically, for each month the figure for BEV will be divided by the figure for Total LDV, as shown in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wc76loC5c06K0gB9GAOK9R47rhlLwBFgxAI88YEZHko/edit?gid=2032607654#gid=2032607654). \n\nIf Argonne National Laboratory ceases to timely update its data, Admins may name a different resolution source, as long as its methodology and numbers are substantially similar.\n\nPlease note that Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) are a separate category from Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) or Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV). This question specifically excludes the hybrids and is asking only about BEV as a percentage of total light-duty vehicle sales.", "post_id": 31068, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757955619.040633, "end_time": 1758142505.693, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757955619.040633, "end_time": 1758142505.693, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2559057650844474 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3560821950728326, 0.9245796032452149, 0.7933330202972507, 0.2893890674991576, 0.24949863371631037, 1.1651050320956946, 0.0, 0.0631635962506171, 0.6297877885187471, 0.21714140727790088, 2.053198856692381, 0.537327422693546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.399005867437241, 0.0024716391381802813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2662907945611738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7580871149292656, 0.3319092663269885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3613918600883169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8317611771326002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8960435594115131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6035675272062923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022822997644283576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009788977028033815, 0.0004303387677233397, 0.0, 0.18603199268747062, 1.623682548553615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021014002097153586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2677080815853848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000591351133574298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012117839732328766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0002843935925754 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 732, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/electric-cars-pass-adoption-tipping-point-in-31-countries?srnd=green), once 5% of new car sales are fully electric, it can be a pivotal tipping point, signaling the start of mass adoption of a new technology:\n\n> New technologies — from televisions to smartwatches — follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl during the early-adopter phase, before hooking into a wave of mainstream acceptance. The transition often hinges on overcoming initial barriers such as cost, a lack of infrastructure and consumer skepticism. The tipping point signals the flattening of these barriers. While each country’s journey to 5% plays out differently, timelines converge in the years that follow.\n\n> “Once enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,” said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. “More EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.\n\nMarket shares in other countries have been as follows:\n\n| Country | EV sales in Q4 2023 | EV market shr Q4 '24 (%) | First quarter at 5% tipping point |\n| ----------- | ------------------: | -----------------------: | --------------------------------: |\n| Norway | 25,028 | 79.6 | 2013 Q3 |\n| Iceland | 3,507 | 58.4 | 2019 Q1 |\n| Denmark | 21,890 | 44.9 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Sweden | 31,780 | 39.8 | 2020 Q1 |\n| Finland | 6,686 | 35.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Netherlands | 29,199 | 35.1 | 2018 Q4 |\n| Ireland | 1,164 | 33.9 | 2019 Q4 |\n| Belgium | 25,752 | 25.3 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Portugal | 11,265 | 24.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Switzerland | 16,581 | 23.9 | 2020 Q1 |\n| China | 1,879,600 | 23.8 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Austria | 13,083 | 23.3 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Israel | 6,772 | 22.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| France | 98,755 | 20.3 | 2020 Q1 |\n| New Zealand | 7,435 | 20.0 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Germany | 138,390 | 19.6 | 2020 Q3 |\n| UK | 79,602 | 17.6 | 2020 Q2 |\n| Thailand | 23,864 | 12.6 | 2023 Q1 |\n| Turkey | 36,026 | 12.0 | 2023 Q3 |\n| Romania | 3,655 | 10.8 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Slovenia | 1,126 | 10.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Australia | 21,571 | 9.5 | 2022 Q3 |\n| Canada | 38,160 | 9.4 | 2022 Q1 |\n| Spain | 20,666 | 8.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| US | 313,822 | 8.1 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Estonia | 400 | 7.5 | 2023 Q2 |\n| South Korea | 36,009 | 6.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Hungary | 1,614 | 6.5 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Bulgaria | 551 | 5.8 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Italy | 21,033 | 5.4 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Greece | 1,579 | 5.3 | 2023 Q2 |\n\nArgonne National Laboratory tracks monthly electric vehicle sales figures in its [Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31045, "title": "Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?", "short_title": "Powell Ceases to Hold Fed Chair Before 2026?", "url_title": "Powell Ceases to Hold Fed Chair Before 2026?", "slug": "powell-ceases-to-hold-fed-chair-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-14T03:46:04.283913Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T19:59:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:44:06.511812Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T19:59:52Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1117, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T18:53:30.562646Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30802, "title": "Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-14T03:46:04.284244Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/people/jerome-h-powell) currently serves as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. President Trump [appointed Powell in 2018](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/07/politics/trump-fed-chair/index.html), and he was [reappointed by President Biden in 2021](https://www.npr.org/2021/11/22/1052741845/biden-reappoints-jerome-powell-as-federal-reserve). His current term ends May 15, 2026.\n\nTrump [previously criticized](https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/08/business/trump-fed-chair-jerome-powell/index.html) Powell late in his first term after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and in early 2024 [said he would not reappoint Powell](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/02/economy/trump-reappoint-fed-chair-jerome-powell/index.html), leading to speculation that Trump could attempt to fire Powell before his term is up. In December of 2024 Trump [stated that he would not attempt to remove Powell before his term is up](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-wont-fire-fed-chief-jerome-powell-rcna183276), affirming [previous statements](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/17/economy/donald-trump-jerome-powell/index.html) from the campaign.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, Eastern Time, Jerome Powell is no longer the Chair of the Federal Reserve. ", "fine_print": "* Temporary leave, such as for medical reasons, in which a temporary acting Chair is appointed, do not count. In the event of an indefinite leave Metaculus may make a determination as to the question resolution, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 31045, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757864756.624542, "end_time": 1758326727.084, "forecaster_count": 246, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757864756.624542, "end_time": 1758326727.084, "forecaster_count": 246, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11938985496310342 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.329377714296643, 1.0566495541071177, 1.3128692682709224, 1.9214939276828429, 0.9734302103629493, 1.6977564087635724, 2.018622349228265, 1.1836599610167189, 1.564005115147864, 0.2882190200401667, 5.951278154950272, 0.8929998930594881, 1.257750963829787, 1.205521282814776, 0.7515870564641943, 1.119151716889652, 0.9408877716042113, 0.02511256045798865, 0.005093520559487672, 0.028437929235878078, 0.7364563836988549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052002417036994986, 0.08060274483794529, 0.2843661786669893, 0.1074464071049797, 0.0, 0.041418747775205614, 0.0, 0.40443025945764877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011825108864279923, 2.0699362489171617e-05, 0.00843353018570826, 0.017155488923366644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009763271510976727, 0.006382206923766149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12922432331864736, 0.0005536187032352935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005809854109668109, 0.008996700334957596, 3.6905071907093174e-05, 0.016879905494179, 0.0, 0.01573567979466783, 0.1607378212468286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.645162976382619e-06, 0.008827036029144461, 0.04099147566264981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0052786725046576975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8890404708503916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023798058259432825, 0.0002932301665144105, 0.06891607398470037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005206936272298439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11815467061942322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12548520005199706 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/people/jerome-h-powell) currently serves as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. President Trump [appointed Powell in 2018](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/07/politics/trump-fed-chair/index.html), and he was [reappointed by President Biden in 2021](https://www.npr.org/2021/11/22/1052741845/biden-reappoints-jerome-powell-as-federal-reserve). His current term ends May 15, 2026.\n\nTrump [previously criticized](https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/08/business/trump-fed-chair-jerome-powell/index.html) Powell late in his first term after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and in early 2024 [said he would not reappoint Powell](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/02/economy/trump-reappoint-fed-chair-jerome-powell/index.html), leading to speculation that Trump could attempt to fire Powell before his term is up. In December of 2024 Trump [stated that he would not attempt to remove Powell before his term is up](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-wont-fire-fed-chief-jerome-powell-rcna183276), affirming [previous statements](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/17/economy/donald-trump-jerome-powell/index.html) from the campaign.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31044, "title": "Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?", "short_title": "US Congress Implements Trump Tariff Policies 2025?", "url_title": "US Congress Implements Trump Tariff Policies 2025?", "slug": "us-congress-implements-trump-tariff-policies-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-13T23:23:12.205624Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T19:59:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:44:30.013797Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T19:59:39Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1225, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T18:53:30.562646Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30801, "title": "Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-13T23:23:12.205979Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President-elect Donald Trump has made tariffs a key component of his campaign. Following his election victory, on November 25, 2024, Trump reiterated his tariff proposals in two messages posted to Truth Social. [One of the messages](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215051155542) threatens to apply 25% tariffs on all goods coming from Canada and Mexico, notable for being US trade partners under the [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93Mexico%E2%80%93Canada_Agreement) (USMCA), a free trade agreement:\n\n> As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before. Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border. On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!\n\nIn [the other message](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215408213585) Trump proposed a 10% tariff on all goods coming from China:\n\n> I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail. Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through, and drugs are pouring into our Country, mostly through Mexico, at levels never seen before. Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter.\n\nTrump has previously also proposed a [10% tariff on all imports](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-proposal-10-percent-1700-cost-per-us-household/) and [up to 60%](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trump-favors-huge-new-tariffs-how-do-they-work) on imports from China. Trump favors tariffs as a penalty on perceived negative behaviors of other countries and to [protect US industries and jobs](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-china-truth-social/). However, economists widely agree that tariffs have negative impacts for Americans, through [price increases](https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/election-economic-policy-ideas/), [slower growth](https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/tariffs-technology-and-growth/), and [failure to improve general welfare](https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/steel-and-aluminum-tariffs/).\n\nWhile Trump as president would have [significant authority](https://www.vox.com/policy/374102/trump-harris-tariffs-congress) to impose tariffs, his plans face a number of challenges. For one, an across-the-board tariff would seemingly apply to the United States' [free trade partners](https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements), calling into question whether those agreements can remain viable under such a tariff regime. Additionally, the US as a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is subject to WTO rules, including the [most-favored nation rule](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11030), which requires WTO members to grant similar tariff rates to other WTO members, with exceptions for countries which have free trade agreements and [in response to unfair practices](https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm). Finally, while the president does have fairly broad tariff authority, Trump's proposals are expansive and [may exceed that authority](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/would-trumps-threats-new-tariffs-survive-legal-challenge-supreme).\n\nDue to the potential legal challenges, one possible pathway could be for Congress to pass a bill to impose Trump's proposed tariffs.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, the US Congress has passed a bill which implements a 10% or greater across-the-board tariff on nearly all imports from all countries (or other across-the-board fee on imports, see the fine print for details). The tariff will still be considered to be across-the-board if it excludes 10 or fewer UN member states.", "fine_print": "* The bill need not be signed by the president, so long as it has passed Congress (both the House and Senate have approved the bill, including reconciling differences between bills passed in each chamber).\n* Whether or not the executive branch imposes across-the-board tariffs before or after Congress has passed the specified bill is immaterial, this question will only resolve as **Yes** if Congress has passed a bill as described here.\n* For the purposes of this question, an across-the-board tariff will be considered one which applies to nearly all goods imported from all countries. If exceptions are made such that some goods are subject to a tariff rate below 10%, the question will still resolve as **Yes** if, in the judgment of Metaculus, after accounting for the exceptions the vast majority of goods imported to the US would be subject to a 10% or greater tariff.\n* An across-the-board tariff does not need to be one rate applied to all goods, for example, a piecemeal approach that applies varying tariff levels of 10% or greater to nearly all goods would count.\n* The method of imposition in the bill is immaterial, so long as the specified tariff would be imposed. **This includes via methods such as** [**carbon border adjustments**](https://heatmap.news/sparks/carbon-border-adjustment-manchin-cassidy) **or a** [**destination-based cash flow tax**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destination-based_cash_flow_tax) **that would have the specified effect on imports.**\n* The date the tariff(s) would take effect is immaterial, only the passage of a bill which would implement such a tariff level in the future is required.\n* Pending legal challenges, either domestic or international, are immaterial. The question will still resolve as **Yes** if there are pending legal challenges, so long as the specified bill has been passed.\n* Metaculus will rely on credible reports that it deems to be most accurately representing the situation, including characterizations of the tariffs in such reporting, to determine whether nearly all imported goods are subject to the specified tariff.", "post_id": 31044, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757882665.033332, "end_time": 1758326751.022, "forecaster_count": 251, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757882665.033332, "end_time": 1758326751.022, "forecaster_count": 251, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.07063869785401959 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.5492101786774484, 3.5865417618792304, 4.139998436515001, 4.521906520077343, 4.675529360227966, 3.4897914129373704, 1.9096906854869238, 0.5737068472611465, 0.1070067823795277, 0.1365252651760415, 0.11725756106997626, 0.4633879773103962, 0.04109473150803126, 0.00019107020567522406, 0.034979835189796235, 0.6202374091017236, 0.0, 9.275573797294637e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18069445754242552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.441934149814516e-06, 0.007697801960475949, 0.0, 0.027116991617143742, 0.00032466072569167694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04799151555882389, 0.015282059381268222, 5.415849220477875e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006265794371840816, 0.0, 0.006544847283222921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4338479536724756e-05, 3.6297211624156108e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.579308008242392, 0.0, 0.4970470810832225, 0.14740207226048466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010090887251243965, 0.010788537848441073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28694635461016327, 0.0, 0.00788352990636529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22431995567952237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005705106595524906, 0.0, 0.002758398154096551, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06336779977179798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011781494199219276, 0.0007595947581063509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010669197527822531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046151113847481225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.048334009971835075 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 29, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2303, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President-elect Donald Trump has made tariffs a key component of his campaign. Following his election victory, on November 25, 2024, Trump reiterated his tariff proposals in two messages posted to Truth Social. [One of the messages](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215051155542) threatens to apply 25% tariffs on all goods coming from Canada and Mexico, notable for being US trade partners under the [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93Mexico%E2%80%93Canada_Agreement) (USMCA), a free trade agreement:\n\n> As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before. Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border. On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!\n\nIn [the other message](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215408213585) Trump proposed a 10% tariff on all goods coming from China:\n\n> I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail. Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through, and drugs are pouring into our Country, mostly through Mexico, at levels never seen before. Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter.\n\nTrump has previously also proposed a [10% tariff on all imports](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-proposal-10-percent-1700-cost-per-us-household/) and [up to 60%](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trump-favors-huge-new-tariffs-how-do-they-work) on imports from China. Trump favors tariffs as a penalty on perceived negative behaviors of other countries and to [protect US industries and jobs](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-china-truth-social/). However, economists widely agree that tariffs have negative impacts for Americans, through [price increases](https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/election-economic-policy-ideas/), [slower growth](https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/tariffs-technology-and-growth/), and [failure to improve general welfare](https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/steel-and-aluminum-tariffs/).\n\nWhile Trump as president would have [significant authority](https://www.vox.com/policy/374102/trump-harris-tariffs-congress) to impose tariffs, his plans face a number of challenges. For one, an across-the-board tariff would seemingly apply to the United States' [free trade partners](https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements), calling into question whether those agreements can remain viable under such a tariff regime. Additionally, the US as a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is subject to WTO rules, including the [most-favored nation rule](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11030), which requires WTO members to grant similar tariff rates to other WTO members, with exceptions for countries which have free trade agreements and [in response to unfair practices](https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm). Finally, while the president does have fairly broad tariff authority, Trump's proposals are expansive and [may exceed that authority](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/would-trumps-threats-new-tariffs-survive-legal-challenge-supreme).\n\nDue to the potential legal challenges, one possible pathway could be for Congress to pass a bill to impose Trump's proposed tariffs.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 31042, "title": "Before the end of President Biden's term, will the Equal Rights Amendment be certified and published?", "short_title": "ERA certified before end of Biden term?", "url_title": "ERA certified before end of Biden term?", "slug": "era-certified-before-end-of-biden-term", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-13T20:57:09.431001Z", "published_at": "2024-12-16T10:20:14.151545Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.246935Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-16T10:20:14.151543Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-22T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T13:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-17T10:19:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30799, "title": "Before the end of President Biden's term, will the Equal Rights Amendment be certified and published?", "created_at": "2024-12-13T20:57:09.431340Z", "open_time": "2024-12-17T10:19:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-21T10:19:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-21T10:19:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-22T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T13:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-01T13:43:18.127203Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Equal Rights Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Rights_Amendment) (ERA) is a proposed amendment to the U.S. Constitution that seeks to guarantee equal legal rights regardless of sex. Initially approved by Congress in 1972, it required ratification by 38 states within a seven-year deadline to be adopted. The deadline was later extended to 1982, but at that time, only 35 states had ratified the amendment. In subsequent decades, the ERA has regained attention, with Virginia becoming the 38th state to ratify in 2020.\n\nAdvocates argue that the amendment should now be certified and published as the 28th Amendment, citing the sufficiency of state ratifications and questioning the enforceability of the earlier deadlines. Critics challenge the validity of these late ratifications and point to the rescission of ratifications by some states. In December 2024, 46 U.S. senators [petitioned](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/biden-pressured-to-publish-equal-rights-amendment-on-his-way-out) President Joe Biden to direct the National Archivist to certify the ERA. \n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Five_of_the_United_States_Constitution#Ratification_of_amendments):\n\n> Upon receiving the necessary number of state ratifications, it is the duty of the Archivist to issue a certificate [proclaiming](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Promulgation \"Promulgation\") a particular amendment duly ratified and part of the Constitution. The amendment and its certificate of ratification are then published in the [*Federal Register*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Register \"Federal Register\") and [*United States Statutes at Large*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Statutes_at_Large \"United States Statutes at Large\"). This serves as official notice to Congress and to the nation that the ratification process has been successfully completed.\n\nJoe Biden's presidential term is scheduled to end at noon EST on January 20, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before the end of Joe Biden's presidential term, the [Equal Rights Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Rights_Amendment) is certified and published in the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/current \"Federal Register\").", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31042, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737143203.275515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737143203.275515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.030791190507666554 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4411588324588234, 0.7394682331392083, 0.862882435577901, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 1.3137385001460613, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31637092907003017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 84.69433849561337, "peer_score": 4.247872760265161, "coverage": 0.9876486638595625, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9876486638595625, "spot_peer_score": 20.970130797597314, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 84.69433849561337, "peer_archived_score": 4.247872760265161, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.970130797597314, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Equal Rights Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Rights_Amendment) (ERA) is a proposed amendment to the U.S. Constitution that seeks to guarantee equal legal rights regardless of sex. Initially approved by Congress in 1972, it required ratification by 38 states within a seven-year deadline to be adopted. The deadline was later extended to 1982, but at that time, only 35 states had ratified the amendment. In subsequent decades, the ERA has regained attention, with Virginia becoming the 38th state to ratify in 2020.\n\nAdvocates argue that the amendment should now be certified and published as the 28th Amendment, citing the sufficiency of state ratifications and questioning the enforceability of the earlier deadlines. Critics challenge the validity of these late ratifications and point to the rescission of ratifications by some states. In December 2024, 46 U.S. senators [petitioned](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/biden-pressured-to-publish-equal-rights-amendment-on-his-way-out) President Joe Biden to direct the National Archivist to certify the ERA. \n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Five_of_the_United_States_Constitution#Ratification_of_amendments):\n\n> Upon receiving the necessary number of state ratifications, it is the duty of the Archivist to issue a certificate [proclaiming](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Promulgation \"Promulgation\") a particular amendment duly ratified and part of the Constitution. The amendment and its certificate of ratification are then published in the [*Federal Register*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Register \"Federal Register\") and [*United States Statutes at Large*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Statutes_at_Large \"United States Statutes at Large\"). This serves as official notice to Congress and to the nation that the ratification process has been successfully completed.\n\nJoe Biden's presidential term is scheduled to end at noon EST on January 20, 2025." }, { "id": 31040, "title": "Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be less than or equal to 3,900?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-value-of-chinas-csi-300-stock-index-at-market-close-on-december-31st-2024-be-less-than-or-equal-to-3900", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.739762Z", "published_at": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.478181Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T04:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30797, "title": "Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be less than or equal to 3,900?", "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.739762Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T04:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T04:09:21.051643Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [CSI 300 Index](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/), which tracks the largest companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has experienced a period of [heightened volatility](https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH), following a series of policy announcements by the Chinese government. \r\n\r\nIn September, Beijing implemented [aggressive measures](https://www.eiu.com/n/china-launches-financial-bazooka-to-lift-economy/) to stimulate the economy, including interest rate cuts, reductions in mortgage down payment requirements, and directives encouraging banks to increase lending for stock market investments. These actions spurred a [dramatic rally](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html) in the index, which rose nearly 35% over a 10-day period as both domestic and international investors rushed to capitalize on the momentum.\r\n\r\nIn December, the Chinese government [announced](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/business/china-monetary-policy.html) additional fiscal measures, described as “more proactive,” alongside moderately looser monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption. These included efforts to stabilize the real estate market, support consumer spending, and encourage further investment in key sectors. The announcements [briefly lifted](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-politburo-policy-shift-spurs-surge-stocks-bonds-2024-12-09/) the CSI 300, though concerns about the sustainability of growth persisted.\r\n\r\nThis development is part of broader efforts by Beijing to stabilize its economy amid a period of slowing growth and declining consumer confidence.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if the closing value of the [CSI 300](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSI_300_Index) stock index at market close on December 31, 2024 is less than or equal to 3,900, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/history/), using the \"Close\" column.", "fine_print": "- Metaculus will review the resolution source on the resolution date. In the event that, at the time of such review, the resolution source does not show a closing value for December 31, 2024 (including, without limitation, due to a holiday or halt in trading affecting the December 31st trading day), this question will resolve to the last closing value available for 2024.", "post_id": 31040, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734179205.574476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734179205.574476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.44078909698983787 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 1.0527583714745365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.1687033331669892, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12044819199439916, 0.930621050368488, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.9742274287087015, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21215635293527685, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3190127781780023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.538648941945999, "peer_score": 1.3106833155484363, "coverage": 0.9985878186700521, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9985878186700521, "spot_peer_score": -3.6661612314977305, "spot_baseline_score": 5.658352836636751, "baseline_archived_score": 14.538648941945999, "peer_archived_score": 1.3106833155484363, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.6661612314977305, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 5.658352836636751 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [CSI 300 Index](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/), which tracks the largest companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has experienced a period of [heightened volatility](https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH), following a series of policy announcements by the Chinese government. \r\n\r\nIn September, Beijing implemented [aggressive measures](https://www.eiu.com/n/china-launches-financial-bazooka-to-lift-economy/) to stimulate the economy, including interest rate cuts, reductions in mortgage down payment requirements, and directives encouraging banks to increase lending for stock market investments. These actions spurred a [dramatic rally](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html) in the index, which rose nearly 35% over a 10-day period as both domestic and international investors rushed to capitalize on the momentum.\r\n\r\nIn December, the Chinese government [announced](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/business/china-monetary-policy.html) additional fiscal measures, described as “more proactive,” alongside moderately looser monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption. These included efforts to stabilize the real estate market, support consumer spending, and encourage further investment in key sectors. The announcements [briefly lifted](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-politburo-policy-shift-spurs-surge-stocks-bonds-2024-12-09/) the CSI 300, though concerns about the sustainability of growth persisted.\r\n\r\nThis development is part of broader efforts by Beijing to stabilize its economy amid a period of slowing growth and declining consumer confidence." }, { "id": 31039, "title": "Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be greater than 3,900 and less than 4,150?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-value-of-chinas-csi-300-stock-index-at-market-close-on-december-31st-2024-be-greater-than-3900-and-less-than-4150", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.585213Z", "published_at": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.174057Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T04:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30796, "title": "Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be greater than 3,900 and less than 4,150?", "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.585213Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T04:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T04:08:14.612641Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [CSI 300 Index](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/), which tracks the largest companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has experienced a period of [heightened volatility](https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH), following a series of policy announcements by the Chinese government. \r\n\r\nIn September, Beijing implemented [aggressive measures](https://www.eiu.com/n/china-launches-financial-bazooka-to-lift-economy/) to stimulate the economy, including interest rate cuts, reductions in mortgage down payment requirements, and directives encouraging banks to increase lending for stock market investments. These actions spurred a [dramatic rally](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html) in the index, which rose nearly 35% over a 10-day period as both domestic and international investors rushed to capitalize on the momentum.\r\n\r\nIn December, the Chinese government [announced](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/business/china-monetary-policy.html) additional fiscal measures, described as “more proactive,” alongside moderately looser monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption. These included efforts to stabilize the real estate market, support consumer spending, and encourage further investment in key sectors. The announcements [briefly lifted](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-politburo-policy-shift-spurs-surge-stocks-bonds-2024-12-09/) the CSI 300, though concerns about the sustainability of growth persisted.\r\n\r\nThis development is part of broader efforts by Beijing to stabilize its economy amid a period of slowing growth and declining consumer confidence.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if the closing value of the [CSI 300](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSI_300_Index) stock index at market close on December 31, 2024 is greater than 3,900 and less than 4,150, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/history/), using the \"Close\" column.", "fine_print": "- Metaculus will review the resolution source on the resolution date. In the event that, at the time of such review, the resolution source does not show a closing value for December 31, 2024 (including, without limitation, due to a holiday or halt in trading affecting the December 31st trading day), this question will resolve to the last closing value available for 2024.", "post_id": 31039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734179224.642194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.516 ], "centers": [ 0.5746666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6629999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734179224.642194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.516 ], "centers": [ 0.5746666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6629999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42533333333333334, 0.5746666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.5601532423672327 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.35834256537117526, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 1.0428908471209768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3585785386355396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.5444199261425768, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8923844838591639, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5885690464613618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 13.00377482571275, "peer_score": 7.974224984668366, "coverage": 0.9979519845379723, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9979519845379723, "spot_peer_score": 10.799298410937688, "spot_baseline_score": 20.07972737058549, "baseline_archived_score": 13.00377482571275, "peer_archived_score": 7.974224984668366, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.799298410937688, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 20.07972737058549 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [CSI 300 Index](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/), which tracks the largest companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has experienced a period of [heightened volatility](https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH), following a series of policy announcements by the Chinese government. \r\n\r\nIn September, Beijing implemented [aggressive measures](https://www.eiu.com/n/china-launches-financial-bazooka-to-lift-economy/) to stimulate the economy, including interest rate cuts, reductions in mortgage down payment requirements, and directives encouraging banks to increase lending for stock market investments. These actions spurred a [dramatic rally](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html) in the index, which rose nearly 35% over a 10-day period as both domestic and international investors rushed to capitalize on the momentum.\r\n\r\nIn December, the Chinese government [announced](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/business/china-monetary-policy.html) additional fiscal measures, described as “more proactive,” alongside moderately looser monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption. These included efforts to stabilize the real estate market, support consumer spending, and encourage further investment in key sectors. The announcements [briefly lifted](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-politburo-policy-shift-spurs-surge-stocks-bonds-2024-12-09/) the CSI 300, though concerns about the sustainability of growth persisted.\r\n\r\nThis development is part of broader efforts by Beijing to stabilize its economy amid a period of slowing growth and declining consumer confidence." }, { "id": 31038, "title": "Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be greater than or equal to 4,150?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-value-of-chinas-csi-300-stock-index-at-market-close-on-december-31st-2024-be-greater-than-or-equal-to-4150", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.563595Z", "published_at": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.473287Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T04:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30795, "title": "Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be greater than or equal to 4,150?", "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.563595Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T04:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T04:07:47.575725Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [CSI 300 Index](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/), which tracks the largest companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has experienced a period of [heightened volatility](https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH), following a series of policy announcements by the Chinese government. \r\n\r\nIn September, Beijing implemented [aggressive measures](https://www.eiu.com/n/china-launches-financial-bazooka-to-lift-economy/) to stimulate the economy, including interest rate cuts, reductions in mortgage down payment requirements, and directives encouraging banks to increase lending for stock market investments. These actions spurred a [dramatic rally](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html) in the index, which rose nearly 35% over a 10-day period as both domestic and international investors rushed to capitalize on the momentum.\r\n\r\nIn December, the Chinese government [announced](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/business/china-monetary-policy.html) additional fiscal measures, described as “more proactive,” alongside moderately looser monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption. These included efforts to stabilize the real estate market, support consumer spending, and encourage further investment in key sectors. The announcements [briefly lifted](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-politburo-policy-shift-spurs-surge-stocks-bonds-2024-12-09/) the CSI 300, though concerns about the sustainability of growth persisted.\r\n\r\nThis development is part of broader efforts by Beijing to stabilize its economy amid a period of slowing growth and declining consumer confidence.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if the closing value of the [CSI 300](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSI_300_Index) stock index at market close on December 31, 2024 is greater than or equal to 4,150, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/history/), using the \"Close\" column.", "fine_print": "- Metaculus will review the resolution source on the resolution date. In the event that, at the time of such review, the resolution source does not show a closing value for December 31, 2024 (including, without limitation, due to a holiday or halt in trading affecting the December 31st trading day), this question will resolve to the last closing value available for 2024.", "post_id": 31038, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734179243.549335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28300000000000003 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734179243.549335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28300000000000003 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.41540698187648084 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.10829599059260063, 0.3190127781780022, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061746335537991415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 1.01405798452901, 0.0, 1.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49338068609219754, 0.28307053233759993, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 19.421615070923192, "peer_score": -3.92183936491666, "coverage": 0.9981609851977339, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9981609851977339, "spot_peer_score": -0.5584339871628137, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284764, "baseline_archived_score": 19.421615070923192, "peer_archived_score": -3.92183936491666, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.5584339871628137, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284764 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [CSI 300 Index](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/), which tracks the largest companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has experienced a period of [heightened volatility](https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.SHSZ300%3AIND-R.GARCH), following a series of policy announcements by the Chinese government. \r\n\r\nIn September, Beijing implemented [aggressive measures](https://www.eiu.com/n/china-launches-financial-bazooka-to-lift-economy/) to stimulate the economy, including interest rate cuts, reductions in mortgage down payment requirements, and directives encouraging banks to increase lending for stock market investments. These actions spurred a [dramatic rally](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-stocks-csi-300.html) in the index, which rose nearly 35% over a 10-day period as both domestic and international investors rushed to capitalize on the momentum.\r\n\r\nIn December, the Chinese government [announced](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/business/china-monetary-policy.html) additional fiscal measures, described as “more proactive,” alongside moderately looser monetary policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption. These included efforts to stabilize the real estate market, support consumer spending, and encourage further investment in key sectors. The announcements [briefly lifted](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-politburo-policy-shift-spurs-surge-stocks-bonds-2024-12-09/) the CSI 300, though concerns about the sustainability of growth persisted.\r\n\r\nThis development is part of broader efforts by Beijing to stabilize its economy amid a period of slowing growth and declining consumer confidence." }, { "id": 31037, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be less than or equal to 17 million, according to the TSA?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-us-airline-passenger-volume-be-for-the-week-of-christmas-through-new-years-eve-2024-be-less-than-or-equal-to-17-million-according-to-the-tsa", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.543075Z", "published_at": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.036091Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30794, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be less than or equal to 17 million, according to the TSA?", "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.543075Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T23:34:36.412930Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) \"The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy economy.\" Then on July 7, 2024, TSA [broke 3 million](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/) travelers in a day, according to CBS News:\r\n\r\n>One reason TSA agents experienced the record volume is because Americans are prioritizing making memories from traveling with friends and family, one aviation industry expert told CBS MoneyWatch. \r\n\r\n>\"During the pandemic, so many Americans got up close and personal with their own mortality,\" said Peter Greenberg, travel editor for CBS News. \"That completely changed their purchasing patterns; people said they don't need new cars, new clothing, the newest electronic device, they want to buy experiences.\"\r\n\r\nAs of October 14, 2024, year-over-year growth in passenger screening numbers had slowed compared with summer, with numbers relatively flat when put up against comparable weeks in 2023. For example the 7-day period through October 14, 2024, was down 1.4% against the comparable period in 2023.\r\n\r\nIn recent years, these numbers have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Date | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |\r\n|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|\r\n| December 25 | 2,028,266| 1,800,463| 1,535,935| 683,838 | 1,996,541|\r\n| December 26 | 2,665,034| 2,218,145| 2,074,458| 1,181,793| 2,623,113|\r\n| December 27 | 2,663,517| 2,178,719| 2,093,615| 1,334,030| 2,654,247|\r\n| December 28 | 2,633,264| 2,153,682| 2,000,891| 1,161,059| 2,540,383|\r\n| December 29 | 2,636,605| 2,178,433| 2,029,343| 1,069,787| 2,647,034|\r\n| December 30 | 2,563,962| 2,383,422| 2,069,413| 1,215,423| 2,572,305|\r\n| December 31 | 2,116,715| 1,935,413| 1,658,357| 914,456 | 2,073,706|", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the total volume of passengers (in millions) screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 are less than or equal to 17 million. TSA posts the data at the following link: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes The total passenger volume for the following days will be summed: 12/25/2024, 12/26/2024, 12/27/2024, 12/28/2024, 12/29/2024, 12/30/2024 and 12/31/2024.", "fine_print": "No other numbers than the ones supplied by the TSA will be considered for this question. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point the question will be **annulled** in case of the TSA not reporting the complete data.\r\n\r\nThis question is expected to be resolved on January 2, 2025, at approximately 9:00 AM Eastern US time, based on the numbers posted that include December 31, 2024. Any subsequent revisions of the numbers by the TSA will not be considered.", "post_id": 31037, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734179264.980659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734179264.980659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.2866539687586103 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6786005719587566, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8033982621793796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 1.572293510028531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.938111037879768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.379305241177167, 0.5413172974874203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 60.239647839437716, "peer_score": 4.7118549193865, "coverage": 0.9983514010078377, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9983514010078377, "spot_peer_score": 7.73896963743041, "spot_baseline_score": 60.40713236688608, "baseline_archived_score": 60.239647839437716, "peer_archived_score": 4.7118549193865, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.73896963743041, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.40713236688608 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) \"The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy economy.\" Then on July 7, 2024, TSA [broke 3 million](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/) travelers in a day, according to CBS News:\r\n\r\n>One reason TSA agents experienced the record volume is because Americans are prioritizing making memories from traveling with friends and family, one aviation industry expert told CBS MoneyWatch. \r\n\r\n>\"During the pandemic, so many Americans got up close and personal with their own mortality,\" said Peter Greenberg, travel editor for CBS News. \"That completely changed their purchasing patterns; people said they don't need new cars, new clothing, the newest electronic device, they want to buy experiences.\"\r\n\r\nAs of October 14, 2024, year-over-year growth in passenger screening numbers had slowed compared with summer, with numbers relatively flat when put up against comparable weeks in 2023. For example the 7-day period through October 14, 2024, was down 1.4% against the comparable period in 2023.\r\n\r\nIn recent years, these numbers have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Date | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |\r\n|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|\r\n| December 25 | 2,028,266| 1,800,463| 1,535,935| 683,838 | 1,996,541|\r\n| December 26 | 2,665,034| 2,218,145| 2,074,458| 1,181,793| 2,623,113|\r\n| December 27 | 2,663,517| 2,178,719| 2,093,615| 1,334,030| 2,654,247|\r\n| December 28 | 2,633,264| 2,153,682| 2,000,891| 1,161,059| 2,540,383|\r\n| December 29 | 2,636,605| 2,178,433| 2,029,343| 1,069,787| 2,647,034|\r\n| December 30 | 2,563,962| 2,383,422| 2,069,413| 1,215,423| 2,572,305|\r\n| December 31 | 2,116,715| 1,935,413| 1,658,357| 914,456 | 2,073,706|" }, { "id": 31036, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be greater than 17 million and less than 18 million, according to the 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"created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30793, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be greater than 17 million and less than 18 million, according to the TSA?", "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.522253Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T23:34:15.834231Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) \"The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy economy.\" Then on July 7, 2024, TSA [broke 3 million](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/) travelers in a day, according to CBS News:\r\n\r\n>One reason TSA agents experienced the record volume is because Americans are prioritizing making memories from traveling with friends and family, one aviation industry expert told CBS MoneyWatch. \r\n\r\n>\"During the pandemic, so many Americans got up close and personal with their own mortality,\" said Peter Greenberg, travel editor for CBS News. \"That completely changed their purchasing patterns; people said they don't need new cars, new clothing, the newest electronic device, they want to buy experiences.\"\r\n\r\nAs of October 14, 2024, year-over-year growth in passenger screening numbers had slowed compared with summer, with numbers relatively flat when put up against comparable weeks in 2023. For example the 7-day period through October 14, 2024, was down 1.4% against the comparable period in 2023.\r\n\r\nIn recent years, these numbers have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Date | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |\r\n|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|\r\n| December 25 | 2,028,266| 1,800,463| 1,535,935| 683,838 | 1,996,541|\r\n| December 26 | 2,665,034| 2,218,145| 2,074,458| 1,181,793| 2,623,113|\r\n| December 27 | 2,663,517| 2,178,719| 2,093,615| 1,334,030| 2,654,247|\r\n| December 28 | 2,633,264| 2,153,682| 2,000,891| 1,161,059| 2,540,383|\r\n| December 29 | 2,636,605| 2,178,433| 2,029,343| 1,069,787| 2,647,034|\r\n| December 30 | 2,563,962| 2,383,422| 2,069,413| 1,215,423| 2,572,305|\r\n| December 31 | 2,116,715| 1,935,413| 1,658,357| 914,456 | 2,073,706|", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the total volume of passengers (in millions) screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 are greater than 17 million and less than 18 million. TSA posts the data at the following link: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes The total passenger volume for the following days will be summed: 12/25/2024, 12/26/2024, 12/27/2024, 12/28/2024, 12/29/2024, 12/30/2024 and 12/31/2024.", "fine_print": "No other numbers than the ones supplied by the TSA will be considered for this question. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point the question will be **annulled** in case of the TSA not reporting the complete data.\r\n\r\nThis question is expected to be resolved on January 2, 2025, at approximately 9:00 AM Eastern US time, based on the numbers posted that include December 31, 2024. Any subsequent revisions of the numbers by the TSA will not be considered.", "post_id": 31036, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734179283.011178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33992866333380656 ], "centers": [ 0.5403333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734179283.011178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33992866333380656 ], "centers": [ 0.5403333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45966666666666667, 0.5403333333333333 ], "means": [ 0.5045560427225729 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 1.1264137777245222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07001158786146168, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2282701289894635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7134693569796422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04082864168525593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6491547277898609, 0.29095551644889905, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2392543370631874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -21.05027432292139, "peer_score": -3.299120964902624, "coverage": 0.9985708400358757, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9985708400358757, "spot_peer_score": 3.1938880977541615, "spot_baseline_score": -12.134004386926286, "baseline_archived_score": -21.05027432292139, "peer_archived_score": -3.299120964902624, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.1938880977541615, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -12.134004386926286 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) \"The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy economy.\" Then on July 7, 2024, TSA [broke 3 million](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/) travelers in a day, according to CBS News:\r\n\r\n>One reason TSA agents experienced the record volume is because Americans are prioritizing making memories from traveling with friends and family, one aviation industry expert told CBS MoneyWatch. \r\n\r\n>\"During the pandemic, so many Americans got up close and personal with their own mortality,\" said Peter Greenberg, travel editor for CBS News. \"That completely changed their purchasing patterns; people said they don't need new cars, new clothing, the newest electronic device, they want to buy experiences.\"\r\n\r\nAs of October 14, 2024, year-over-year growth in passenger screening numbers had slowed compared with summer, with numbers relatively flat when put up against comparable weeks in 2023. For example the 7-day period through October 14, 2024, was down 1.4% against the comparable period in 2023.\r\n\r\nIn recent years, these numbers have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Date | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |\r\n|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|\r\n| December 25 | 2,028,266| 1,800,463| 1,535,935| 683,838 | 1,996,541|\r\n| December 26 | 2,665,034| 2,218,145| 2,074,458| 1,181,793| 2,623,113|\r\n| December 27 | 2,663,517| 2,178,719| 2,093,615| 1,334,030| 2,654,247|\r\n| December 28 | 2,633,264| 2,153,682| 2,000,891| 1,161,059| 2,540,383|\r\n| December 29 | 2,636,605| 2,178,433| 2,029,343| 1,069,787| 2,647,034|\r\n| December 30 | 2,563,962| 2,383,422| 2,069,413| 1,215,423| 2,572,305|\r\n| December 31 | 2,116,715| 1,935,413| 1,658,357| 914,456 | 2,073,706|" }, { "id": 31035, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be greater than or equal to 18 million and less than or equal to 19 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"status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) \"The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy economy.\" Then on July 7, 2024, TSA [broke 3 million](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/) travelers in a day, according to CBS News:\r\n\r\n>One reason TSA agents experienced the record volume is because Americans are prioritizing making memories from traveling with friends and family, one aviation industry expert told CBS MoneyWatch. \r\n\r\n>\"During the pandemic, so many Americans got up close and personal with their own mortality,\" said Peter Greenberg, travel editor for CBS News. \"That completely changed their purchasing patterns; people said they don't need new cars, new clothing, the newest electronic device, they want to buy experiences.\"\r\n\r\nAs of October 14, 2024, year-over-year growth in passenger screening numbers had slowed compared with summer, with numbers relatively flat when put up against comparable weeks in 2023. For example the 7-day period through October 14, 2024, was down 1.4% against the comparable period in 2023.\r\n\r\nIn recent years, these numbers have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Date | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |\r\n|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|\r\n| December 25 | 2,028,266| 1,800,463| 1,535,935| 683,838 | 1,996,541|\r\n| December 26 | 2,665,034| 2,218,145| 2,074,458| 1,181,793| 2,623,113|\r\n| December 27 | 2,663,517| 2,178,719| 2,093,615| 1,334,030| 2,654,247|\r\n| December 28 | 2,633,264| 2,153,682| 2,000,891| 1,161,059| 2,540,383|\r\n| December 29 | 2,636,605| 2,178,433| 2,029,343| 1,069,787| 2,647,034|\r\n| December 30 | 2,563,962| 2,383,422| 2,069,413| 1,215,423| 2,572,305|\r\n| December 31 | 2,116,715| 1,935,413| 1,658,357| 914,456 | 2,073,706|", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the total volume of passengers (in millions) screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 are greater than or equal to 18 million and less than or equal to 19 million. TSA posts the data at the following link: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes The total passenger volume for the following days will be summed: 12/25/2024, 12/26/2024, 12/27/2024, 12/28/2024, 12/29/2024, 12/30/2024 and 12/31/2024.", "fine_print": "No other numbers than the ones supplied by the TSA will be considered for this question. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point the question will be **annulled** in case of the TSA not reporting the complete data.\r\n\r\nThis question is expected to be resolved on January 2, 2025, at approximately 9:00 AM Eastern US time, based on the numbers posted that include December 31, 2024. Any subsequent revisions of the numbers by the TSA will not be considered.", "post_id": 31035, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734179301.437061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734179301.437061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.44216042119978244 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5953177210269608, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.242072193777025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7045384634640965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.2974534244874489, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08463637410442552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -15.834541066223077, "peer_score": 13.145849945240073, "coverage": 0.9987748677311119, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9987748677311119, "spot_peer_score": 13.598743596681665, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344504996, "baseline_archived_score": -15.834541066223077, "peer_archived_score": 13.145849945240073, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.598743596681665, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344504996 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) \"The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy economy.\" Then on July 7, 2024, TSA [broke 3 million](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/) travelers in a day, according to CBS News:\r\n\r\n>One reason TSA agents experienced the record volume is because Americans are prioritizing making memories from traveling with friends and family, one aviation industry expert told CBS MoneyWatch. \r\n\r\n>\"During the pandemic, so many Americans got up close and personal with their own mortality,\" said Peter Greenberg, travel editor for CBS News. \"That completely changed their purchasing patterns; people said they don't need new cars, new clothing, the newest electronic device, they want to buy experiences.\"\r\n\r\nAs of October 14, 2024, year-over-year growth in passenger screening numbers had slowed compared with summer, with numbers relatively flat when put up against comparable weeks in 2023. For example the 7-day period through October 14, 2024, was down 1.4% against the comparable period in 2023.\r\n\r\nIn recent years, these numbers have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Date | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |\r\n|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|\r\n| December 25 | 2,028,266| 1,800,463| 1,535,935| 683,838 | 1,996,541|\r\n| December 26 | 2,665,034| 2,218,145| 2,074,458| 1,181,793| 2,623,113|\r\n| December 27 | 2,663,517| 2,178,719| 2,093,615| 1,334,030| 2,654,247|\r\n| December 28 | 2,633,264| 2,153,682| 2,000,891| 1,161,059| 2,540,383|\r\n| December 29 | 2,636,605| 2,178,433| 2,029,343| 1,069,787| 2,647,034|\r\n| December 30 | 2,563,962| 2,383,422| 2,069,413| 1,215,423| 2,572,305|\r\n| December 31 | 2,116,715| 1,935,413| 1,658,357| 914,456 | 2,073,706|" }, { "id": 31034, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be greater than 19 million, according to the TSA?", "short_title": "", 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) \"The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy economy.\" Then on July 7, 2024, TSA [broke 3 million](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/) travelers in a day, according to CBS News:\r\n\r\n>One reason TSA agents experienced the record volume is because Americans are prioritizing making memories from traveling with friends and family, one aviation industry expert told CBS MoneyWatch. \r\n\r\n>\"During the pandemic, so many Americans got up close and personal with their own mortality,\" said Peter Greenberg, travel editor for CBS News. \"That completely changed their purchasing patterns; people said they don't need new cars, new clothing, the newest electronic device, they want to buy experiences.\"\r\n\r\nAs of October 14, 2024, year-over-year growth in passenger screening numbers had slowed compared with summer, with numbers relatively flat when put up against comparable weeks in 2023. For example the 7-day period through October 14, 2024, was down 1.4% against the comparable period in 2023.\r\n\r\nIn recent years, these numbers have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Date | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |\r\n|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|\r\n| December 25 | 2,028,266| 1,800,463| 1,535,935| 683,838 | 1,996,541|\r\n| December 26 | 2,665,034| 2,218,145| 2,074,458| 1,181,793| 2,623,113|\r\n| December 27 | 2,663,517| 2,178,719| 2,093,615| 1,334,030| 2,654,247|\r\n| December 28 | 2,633,264| 2,153,682| 2,000,891| 1,161,059| 2,540,383|\r\n| December 29 | 2,636,605| 2,178,433| 2,029,343| 1,069,787| 2,647,034|\r\n| December 30 | 2,563,962| 2,383,422| 2,069,413| 1,215,423| 2,572,305|\r\n| December 31 | 2,116,715| 1,935,413| 1,658,357| 914,456 | 2,073,706|", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the total volume of passengers (in millions) screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 are greater than 19 million. TSA posts the data at the following link: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes The total passenger volume for the following days will be summed: 12/25/2024, 12/26/2024, 12/27/2024, 12/28/2024, 12/29/2024, 12/30/2024 and 12/31/2024.", "fine_print": "No other numbers than the ones supplied by the TSA will be considered for this question. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point the question will be **annulled** in case of the TSA not reporting the complete data.\r\n\r\nThis question is expected to be resolved on January 2, 2025, at approximately 9:00 AM Eastern US time, based on the numbers posted that include December 31, 2024. Any subsequent revisions of the numbers by the TSA will not be considered.", "post_id": 31034, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734179322.314717, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.832 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734179322.314717, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.832 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6305421185437653 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.04289084712097685, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3576938458747265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.665543774366318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 1.263928804797011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -45.76888832595024, "peer_score": -19.43347858725528, "coverage": 0.9989784445613623, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9989784445613623, "spot_peer_score": -46.33545796872565, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -45.76888832595024, "peer_archived_score": -19.43347858725528, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -46.33545796872565, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, the TSA broke the record for the most passengers screened in a single day, with TSA Administrator David Pekoske [saying](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/06/24/tsa-breaks-record-most-individuals-screened-single-day-readies) \"The traveling public is on the move, which is a sign of a healthy economy.\" Then on July 7, 2024, TSA [broke 3 million](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-airport-security-screen-record-3-million/) travelers in a day, according to CBS News:\r\n\r\n>One reason TSA agents experienced the record volume is because Americans are prioritizing making memories from traveling with friends and family, one aviation industry expert told CBS MoneyWatch. \r\n\r\n>\"During the pandemic, so many Americans got up close and personal with their own mortality,\" said Peter Greenberg, travel editor for CBS News. \"That completely changed their purchasing patterns; people said they don't need new cars, new clothing, the newest electronic device, they want to buy experiences.\"\r\n\r\nAs of October 14, 2024, year-over-year growth in passenger screening numbers had slowed compared with summer, with numbers relatively flat when put up against comparable weeks in 2023. For example the 7-day period through October 14, 2024, was down 1.4% against the comparable period in 2023.\r\n\r\nIn recent years, these numbers have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Date | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |\r\n|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|\r\n| December 25 | 2,028,266| 1,800,463| 1,535,935| 683,838 | 1,996,541|\r\n| December 26 | 2,665,034| 2,218,145| 2,074,458| 1,181,793| 2,623,113|\r\n| December 27 | 2,663,517| 2,178,719| 2,093,615| 1,334,030| 2,654,247|\r\n| December 28 | 2,633,264| 2,153,682| 2,000,891| 1,161,059| 2,540,383|\r\n| December 29 | 2,636,605| 2,178,433| 2,029,343| 1,069,787| 2,647,034|\r\n| December 30 | 2,563,962| 2,383,422| 2,069,413| 1,215,423| 2,572,305|\r\n| December 31 | 2,116,715| 1,935,413| 1,658,357| 914,456 | 2,073,706|" }, { "id": 31033, "title": "Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-undiagnosed-disease-currently-spreading-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-be-identified-as-covid-19-before-january-7-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.269137Z", "published_at": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.036645Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T13:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30790, "title": "Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.269137Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T13:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T13:36:31.870203Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [WHO](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546):\r\n\r\n> Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the cases, 31 deaths have been registered. The majority of cases reported are among children, particularly those under five years of age. The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season. Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours. These challenges, coupled with limited diagnostics in the region, have delayed the identification of the underlying cause. Rapid response teams have been deployed to identify the cause of the outbreak and strengthen the response. The teams are collecting samples for laboratory testing, providing a more detailed clinical characterization of the detected cases, investigating the transmission dynamics, and actively searching for additional cases, both within health facilities and at the community level. The teams are also aiding with the treatment of patients, risk communication and community engagement. Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor. Malaria is a common disease in this area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases. Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 7, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) reports that the disease previously reported as undiagnosed [here](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546) has been identified as COVID-19. If it is identified as a different disease or if no such reports are released before January 7, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Reports by other organisations besides the WHO will not resolve this question, unless their findings are explicitly endorsed by the WHO.\r\n* The report has to be certain about the identity of the disease, stating that cases have been confirmed as such. A report mentioning likely candidate diseases or using language like \"the most probable cause is \\[X]\" or \"suspected cases\" will not resolve this question.\r\n* By “predominantly caused by”, we mean that the WHO reports that a majority of cases of death or illness resulting from the disease outbreak were caused by one or more of the three diseases identified above. By contrast, if the WHO reports that a majority of these cases of death or illness resulting from the disease outbreak were caused by one or more other diseases not named above, this question would resolve **No**, notwithstanding that a minority of cases may have been caused by one or more of the diseases named above.", "post_id": 31033, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734179338.342111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11666666666666665 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.192 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734179338.342111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11666666666666665 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.192 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.14677662106261635 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5034991290597348, 0.14645117361277293, 0.5257244506372711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16364767204427447, 0.12637014538023153, 0.5723858691496826, 0.35834256537117526, 1.930621050368488, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 2.132504629455055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 1.465287308286153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [WHO](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546):\r\n\r\n> Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the cases, 31 deaths have been registered. The majority of cases reported are among children, particularly those under five years of age. The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season. Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours. These challenges, coupled with limited diagnostics in the region, have delayed the identification of the underlying cause. Rapid response teams have been deployed to identify the cause of the outbreak and strengthen the response. The teams are collecting samples for laboratory testing, providing a more detailed clinical characterization of the detected cases, investigating the transmission dynamics, and actively searching for additional cases, both within health facilities and at the community level. The teams are also aiding with the treatment of patients, risk communication and community engagement. Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor. Malaria is a common disease in this area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases. Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths." }, { "id": 31032, "title": "Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as RSV before January 7, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-undiagnosed-disease-currently-spreading-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-be-identified-as-rsv-before-january-7-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.248623Z", "published_at": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.573619Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T13:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30789, "title": "Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as RSV before January 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.248623Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T13:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T13:36:18.531033Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [WHO](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546):\r\n\r\n> Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the cases, 31 deaths have been registered. The majority of cases reported are among children, particularly those under five years of age. The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season. Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours. These challenges, coupled with limited diagnostics in the region, have delayed the identification of the underlying cause. Rapid response teams have been deployed to identify the cause of the outbreak and strengthen the response. The teams are collecting samples for laboratory testing, providing a more detailed clinical characterization of the detected cases, investigating the transmission dynamics, and actively searching for additional cases, both within health facilities and at the community level. The teams are also aiding with the treatment of patients, risk communication and community engagement. Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor. Malaria is a common disease in this area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases. Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 7, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) reports that the disease previously reported as undiagnosed [here](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546) has been identified as RSV. If it is identified as a different disease or if no such reports are released before January 7, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Reports by other organisations besides the WHO will not resolve this question, unless their findings are explicitly endorsed by the WHO.\r\n* The report has to be certain about the identity of the disease, stating that cases have been confirmed as such. A report mentioning likely candidate diseases or using language like \"the most probable cause is \\[X]\" or \"suspected cases\" will not resolve this question.\r\n* By “predominantly caused by”, we mean that the WHO reports that a majority of cases of death or illness resulting from the disease outbreak were caused by one or more of the three diseases identified above. By contrast, if the WHO reports that a majority of these cases of death or illness resulting from the disease outbreak were caused by one or more other diseases not named above, this question would resolve **No**, notwithstanding that a minority of cases may have been caused by one or more of the diseases named above.", "post_id": 31032, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734179352.934415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734179352.934415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.12944911871828105 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.17630000022929448, 0.749533702009241, 0.8561990915513377, 0.8864878120153485, 1.5845769478799088, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.35771924058428284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17106297155304273, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [WHO](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546):\r\n\r\n> Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the cases, 31 deaths have been registered. The majority of cases reported are among children, particularly those under five years of age. The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season. Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours. These challenges, coupled with limited diagnostics in the region, have delayed the identification of the underlying cause. Rapid response teams have been deployed to identify the cause of the outbreak and strengthen the response. The teams are collecting samples for laboratory testing, providing a more detailed clinical characterization of the detected cases, investigating the transmission dynamics, and actively searching for additional cases, both within health facilities and at the community level. The teams are also aiding with the treatment of patients, risk communication and community engagement. Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor. Malaria is a common disease in this area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases. Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths." }, { "id": 31031, "title": "Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza before January 7, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-undiagnosed-disease-currently-spreading-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-be-identified-as-influenza-before-january-7-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.227802Z", "published_at": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:11.360648Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T13:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30788, "title": "Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza before January 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.227802Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T13:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T13:35:54.847997Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [WHO](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546):\r\n\r\n> Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the cases, 31 deaths have been registered. The majority of cases reported are among children, particularly those under five years of age. The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season. Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours. These challenges, coupled with limited diagnostics in the region, have delayed the identification of the underlying cause. Rapid response teams have been deployed to identify the cause of the outbreak and strengthen the response. The teams are collecting samples for laboratory testing, providing a more detailed clinical characterization of the detected cases, investigating the transmission dynamics, and actively searching for additional cases, both within health facilities and at the community level. The teams are also aiding with the treatment of patients, risk communication and community engagement. Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor. Malaria is a common disease in this area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases. Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 7, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) reports that the disease previously reported as undiagnosed [here](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546) has been identified as Influenza. If it is identified as a different disease or if no such reports are released before January 7, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Reports by other organisations besides the WHO will not resolve this question, unless their findings are explicitly endorsed by the WHO.\r\n* The report has to be certain about the identity of the disease, stating that cases have been confirmed as such. A report mentioning likely candidate diseases or using language like \"the most probable cause is \\[X]\" or \"suspected cases\" will not resolve this question.\r\n* By “predominantly caused by”, we mean that the WHO reports that a majority of cases of death or illness resulting from the disease outbreak were caused by one or more of the three diseases identified above. By contrast, if the WHO reports that a majority of these cases of death or illness resulting from the disease outbreak were caused by one or more other diseases not named above, this question would resolve **No**, notwithstanding that a minority of cases may have been caused by one or more of the diseases named above.", "post_id": 31031, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734179367.566862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17800000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734179367.566862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17800000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.822, 0.17800000000000002 ], "means": [ 0.23826038374009306 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.5766473891371379, 0.29095551644889905, 0.11525585627893538, 0.8228423550811093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3071519423367794, 0.0, 0.956014946319152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9747998084684121, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1819959093184269, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.5780783828976754, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [WHO](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546):\r\n\r\n> Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the cases, 31 deaths have been registered. The majority of cases reported are among children, particularly those under five years of age. The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season. Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours. These challenges, coupled with limited diagnostics in the region, have delayed the identification of the underlying cause. Rapid response teams have been deployed to identify the cause of the outbreak and strengthen the response. The teams are collecting samples for laboratory testing, providing a more detailed clinical characterization of the detected cases, investigating the transmission dynamics, and actively searching for additional cases, both within health facilities and at the community level. The teams are also aiding with the treatment of patients, risk communication and community engagement. Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor. Malaria is a common disease in this area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases. Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths." }, { "id": 31030, "title": "Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-blue-origin-launch-its-new-glenn-rocket-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.188895Z", "published_at": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.083479Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T04:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30787, "title": "Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-13T13:58:11.188895Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T04:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T04:06:17.733816Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/), founded by [Jeff Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), is preparing for the [inaugural launch](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/12/intrigue-swirls-as-blue-origin-races-toward-year-end-deadline-for-new-glenn/) of its highly anticipated [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rocket. This heavy-lift orbital launch vehicle, named after astronaut John Glenn, represents a key step in the company’s mission to advance commercial spaceflight and compete with other aerospace giants such as SpaceX. The rocket features a 7-meter-diameter payload fairing, providing significant capacity compared to conventional boosters, and is designed for both government and commercial customers.\n\nThe rocket is currently at Launch Complex-36 in Florida, with Blue Origin targeting a first flight by the end of 2024. However, a hot-fire test, a critical step before liftoff, has faced [repeated delays](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/08/21/bezos-blue-origin-suffers-fiery-setback-building-new-rocket/), and final regulatory approvals are pending from the Federal Aviation Administration. However, the company has publicly signaled that the rocket is \"[on track](https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/09/blue-origin-says-new-glenn-on-track-to-launch-before-end-of-2024/?guccounter=1)\" for its maiden flight.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Blue Origin's New Glenn launch vehicle leaves the launchpad under its own power.\n\nIf this does not occur before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "- This question refers to an integrated configuration of the launch vehicle, consisting of at least [two stages](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn#Description_and_technical_specifications).", "post_id": 31030, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734179386.297017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734179386.297017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2846640800826972 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.4788642270566188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6414130977087752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 1.9619393536787249, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 1.6382757401274648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.34455561814036, "peer_score": 13.792099730053119, "coverage": 0.9997976012389969, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997976012389969, "spot_peer_score": 13.122023020429342, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 70.34455561814036, "peer_archived_score": 13.792099730053119, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.122023020429342, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/), founded by [Jeff Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), is preparing for the [inaugural launch](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/12/intrigue-swirls-as-blue-origin-races-toward-year-end-deadline-for-new-glenn/) of its highly anticipated [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rocket. This heavy-lift orbital launch vehicle, named after astronaut John Glenn, represents a key step in the company’s mission to advance commercial spaceflight and compete with other aerospace giants such as SpaceX. The rocket features a 7-meter-diameter payload fairing, providing significant capacity compared to conventional boosters, and is designed for both government and commercial customers.\n\nThe rocket is currently at Launch Complex-36 in Florida, with Blue Origin targeting a first flight by the end of 2024. However, a hot-fire test, a critical step before liftoff, has faced [repeated delays](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/08/21/bezos-blue-origin-suffers-fiery-setback-building-new-rocket/), and final regulatory approvals are pending from the Federal Aviation Administration. However, the company has publicly signaled that the rocket is \"[on track](https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/09/blue-origin-says-new-glenn-on-track-to-launch-before-end-of-2024/?guccounter=1)\" for its maiden flight." }, { "id": 30979, "title": "Will Michael Jordan's net worth exceed that of Starbucks founder Howard Schultz on December 31, 2024? 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", "created_at": "2024-12-12T14:48:37.506916Z", "open_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T20:10:58.106523Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 11, 2024, Michael Jordan's net worth was listed as $3.5 billion, according to Forbes, while Howard Schultz's net worth was $3.4 billion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Michael Jordan has a higher net worth than Howard Schultz on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If there is a tie when looking at dollar values of their net worths, this resolves as **No**. If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). 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question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 30, 2024, the cheapest Tesla Model Y for US buyers is offered at the Tesla website for under $44,990. If the price is greater than or equal to $44,990, this question resolves as **No**. On of after December 30, 2024, Metaculus Admins will access the Model Y design page, currently at [this link](https://www.tesla.com/modely/design#overview). They will click on the \"Cash\" price and uncheck the box to include estimated incentives of $7,500 and 5-year gas savings.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source other than Tesla's official website will be considered. 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"approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-17T15:16:42.054697Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-24T15:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30737, "title": "Will Syria be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040?", "created_at": "2024-12-12T09:34:48.785252Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T15:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-01T15:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-01T15:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Syrian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) has lasted since 2011, and involved multiple phases and foreign interventions. In 2024 the Turkish-backed Islamist group Tahrir al-Sham launched a surprise offensive and soon [captured Damascus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Assad_regime), leading to the flight of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the disestablishment of the Syrian Ba'ath party that has ruled Syria since 1963.\n\nCurrently, Syria is *de facto* partitioned between various factions split along ethnic and religious lines, including the Kurdish-led SDF, various Islamist factions (some backed by Türkiye), and local militias, with a highly uncertain future. Parts of Syrian territory are also occupied and declared annexed by Israel, with its occupied area increasing since the fall of Assad.\n\nOne potential solution to the crisis is the partition of Syria into sovereign states which more closely align with its demographic composition. A historic parallel is the collapse of the Soviet Union with the constituent republics becoming sovereign states, or formal separation of Sudan and South Sudan in 2011. This might quell sectarian violence, but it could also cause new conflicts, be opposed by regional powers, or cause instability due to uneven resource distribution (e.g. most of Syria's petroleum reserves are currently in SDF-held areas.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before 2040, there are at least two sovereign states that fulfill all the following criteria:\n\n* they are internationally recognized\n* they are either the Syrian Arab Republic, its legal successor, or a new state that was not internationally recognized before 2025\n* they contain at least 3% of the land that, as 2024, *de jure* belonged to the Syrian Arab Republic.", "fine_print": "* For this question, a sovereign state will be considered internationally recognized, if (a) it is a member state of the United Nations (or its formal successor), or, (b) more than half of UN member states formally acknowledge it as a sovereign state.\n* The continued existence of a Syrian supranational union or intergovernmental organization (such as the European Union, the Commonwealth of Nations or Commonwealth of Independent States) will bear no relevance on the resolution of this question, as long as its members are de-jure sovereign states in their own right.", "post_id": 30969, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752288049.972881, "end_time": 1787833980.699363, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752288049.972881, "end_time": 1787833980.699363, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.24795064951155685 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2182435628141144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.9052638420575493, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Syrian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) has lasted since 2011, and involved multiple phases and foreign interventions. In 2024 the Turkish-backed Islamist group Tahrir al-Sham launched a surprise offensive and soon [captured Damascus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Assad_regime), leading to the flight of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the disestablishment of the Syrian Ba'ath party that has ruled Syria since 1963.\n\nCurrently, Syria is *de facto* partitioned between various factions split along ethnic and religious lines, including the Kurdish-led SDF, various Islamist factions (some backed by Türkiye), and local militias, with a highly uncertain future. Parts of Syrian territory are also occupied and declared annexed by Israel, with its occupied area increasing since the fall of Assad.\n\nOne potential solution to the crisis is the partition of Syria into sovereign states which more closely align with its demographic composition. A historic parallel is the collapse of the Soviet Union with the constituent republics becoming sovereign states, or formal separation of Sudan and South Sudan in 2011. This might quell sectarian violence, but it could also cause new conflicts, be opposed by regional powers, or cause instability due to uneven resource distribution (e.g. most of Syria's petroleum reserves are currently in SDF-held areas.)" }, { "id": 30965, "title": "Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?", "short_title": "Withdrawal of Russian soldiers in Syria before Jan 5, 2025?", "url_title": "Withdrawal of Russian soldiers in Syria before Jan 5, 2025?", "slug": "withdrawal-of-russian-soldiers-in-syria-before-jan-5-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-12T00:52:18.167108Z", "published_at": "2024-12-12T20:16:54.316920Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.663039Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-12T20:16:54.316918Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T20:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30735, "title": "Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-12T00:52:18.167501Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T20:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T21:15:52.136921Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On December 8, 2024, a coalition of Syrian rebels entered Damascus, ultimately ousting President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow and was granted political asylum by the Russian government. \n\nRussia has had tens of thousands of troops deployed in Syria over the years, with [several thousand remaining](https://kyivindependent.com/the-russian-weapons-in-the-balance-of-syrias-regime-shift/) after the start of the war in Ukraine:\n\n> The BBC estimated that there were around 7,500 Russian soldiers in Syria as of the beginning of 2024.\n\n> “Russia always had a very limited, surgical presence in Syria, and it is easier to sustain a small presence than a large presence,” Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. She put the likely upper limit for total Russian fighters in Syria closer to 4,500.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 5, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that at least one of the following has occurred:\n\n1. The majority of the Russian soldiers that were stationed in Syria in November, 2024 have withdrawn from the country.\n2. There are fewer than 2,000 Russian soldiers stationed in Syria on any date after November 30, 2024.\n\nOtherwise, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "* With respect to #1 above, the reports need not explicitly mention November, as long as they mention that the majority of the forces have withdrawn and they do not suggest that such withdrawal took place earlier than December 2024.\n* Metaculus will use its best judgment to evaluate reports from credible sources that indicate a withdrawal has occurred. While statements from individual experts (e.g., a national security expert from academia or a think tank) will be considered, greater weight will be given to reports sourced from larger institutions, agencies, or governments (including statements from individuals speaking on behalf of such types of organizations) when determining resolution.", "post_id": 30965, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654836.787997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654836.787997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.014247886246682514 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.602141231530933, 1.6155193016830145, 0.3262663302783051, 0.9652129537209231, 0.23784222400992291, 0.0, 0.44142945691213403, 0.5829130073283081, 0.01698211627615795, 0.0, 0.002608200027234153, 0.0065036323388337515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004317504220680495, 0.0, 0.0018980425029571785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012543399915659996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007807124044234717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05025074089134997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005344667174111027, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.12983297548799, "peer_score": 16.90173554686244, "coverage": 0.9997747719728148, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997747719728148, "spot_peer_score": 36.11056083811957, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 85.12983297548799, "peer_archived_score": 16.90173554686244, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 36.11056083811957, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 259, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On December 8, 2024, a coalition of Syrian rebels entered Damascus, ultimately ousting President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow and was granted political asylum by the Russian government. \n\nRussia has had tens of thousands of troops deployed in Syria over the years, with [several thousand remaining](https://kyivindependent.com/the-russian-weapons-in-the-balance-of-syrias-regime-shift/) after the start of the war in Ukraine:\n\n> The BBC estimated that there were around 7,500 Russian soldiers in Syria as of the beginning of 2024.\n\n> “Russia always had a very limited, surgical presence in Syria, and it is easier to sustain a small presence than a large presence,” Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. She put the likely upper limit for total Russian fighters in Syria closer to 4,500." } ] }
