Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1420
{ "count": 5913, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1440", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1400", "results": [ { "id": 30979, "title": "Will Michael Jordan's net worth exceed that of Starbucks founder Howard Schultz on December 31, 2024? ", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-michael-jordans-net-worth-exceed-that-of-starbucks-founder-howard-schultz-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-12T14:48:37.506916Z", "published_at": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.193992Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30741, "title": "Will Michael Jordan's net worth exceed that of Starbucks founder Howard Schultz on December 31, 2024? ", "created_at": "2024-12-12T14:48:37.506916Z", "open_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T20:10:58.106523Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 11, 2024, Michael Jordan's net worth was listed as $3.5 billion, according to Forbes, while Howard Schultz's net worth was $3.4 billion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Michael Jordan has a higher net worth than Howard Schultz on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If there is a tie when looking at dollar values of their net worths, this resolves as **No**. If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). ", "post_id": 30979, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734100678.878105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6414867868191404 ], "centers": [ 0.715 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734100678.878105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6414867868191404 ], "centers": [ 0.715 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28500000000000003, 0.715 ], "means": [ 0.7451629610411662 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6176099273594333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 1.0, 0.9491713405896097, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 11, 2024, Michael Jordan's net worth was listed as $3.5 billion, according to Forbes, while Howard Schultz's net worth was $3.4 billion." }, { "id": 30978, "title": "Will the cheapest new Tesla Model Y be listed as under $44,990 on December 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cheapest-new-tesla-model-y-be-listed-as-under-44990-on-december-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-12T14:48:37.468633Z", "published_at": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.668139Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T19:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30740, "title": "Will the cheapest new Tesla Model Y be listed as under $44,990 on December 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-12T14:48:37.468633Z", "open_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T19:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-30T19:09:59.619246Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 11, 2024, this price was $44,990", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 30, 2024, the cheapest Tesla Model Y for US buyers is offered at the Tesla website for under $44,990. If the price is greater than or equal to $44,990, this question resolves as **No**. On of after December 30, 2024, Metaculus Admins will access the Model Y design page, currently at [this link](https://www.tesla.com/modely/design#overview). They will click on the \"Cash\" price and uncheck the box to include estimated incentives of $7,500 and 5-year gas savings.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source other than Tesla's official website will be considered. ", "post_id": 30978, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734100679.448635, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.2537001313682448 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.546 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734100679.448635, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.2537001313682448 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.546 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7462998686317552, 0.2537001313682448 ], "means": [ 0.3792028945096366 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8714168301319076, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.3660118313347263, 0.620502543612061, 2.3787095809646694, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5240065416203559, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07205665544157025, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 11, 2024, this price was $44,990" }, { "id": 30969, "title": "Will Syria be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040?", "short_title": "Syria partitioned into new sovereign states before 2040?", "url_title": "Syria partitioned into new sovereign states before 2040?", "slug": "syria-partitioned-into-new-sovereign-states-before-2040", "author_id": 132719, "author_username": "MetaCalculator", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-12T09:34:48.784834Z", "published_at": "2025-02-17T15:16:42.054699Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.053973Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-17T15:16:42.054697Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-24T15:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30737, "title": "Will Syria be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040?", "created_at": "2024-12-12T09:34:48.785252Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T15:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-01T15:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-01T15:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Syrian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) has lasted since 2011, and involved multiple phases and foreign interventions. In 2024 the Turkish-backed Islamist group Tahrir al-Sham launched a surprise offensive and soon [captured Damascus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Assad_regime), leading to the flight of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the disestablishment of the Syrian Ba'ath party that has ruled Syria since 1963.\n\nCurrently, Syria is *de facto* partitioned between various factions split along ethnic and religious lines, including the Kurdish-led SDF, various Islamist factions (some backed by Türkiye), and local militias, with a highly uncertain future. Parts of Syrian territory are also occupied and declared annexed by Israel, with its occupied area increasing since the fall of Assad.\n\nOne potential solution to the crisis is the partition of Syria into sovereign states which more closely align with its demographic composition. A historic parallel is the collapse of the Soviet Union with the constituent republics becoming sovereign states, or formal separation of Sudan and South Sudan in 2011. This might quell sectarian violence, but it could also cause new conflicts, be opposed by regional powers, or cause instability due to uneven resource distribution (e.g. most of Syria's petroleum reserves are currently in SDF-held areas.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before 2040, there are at least two sovereign states that fulfill all the following criteria:\n\n* they are internationally recognized\n* they are either the Syrian Arab Republic, its legal successor, or a new state that was not internationally recognized before 2025\n* they contain at least 3% of the land that, as 2024, *de jure* belonged to the Syrian Arab Republic.", "fine_print": "* For this question, a sovereign state will be considered internationally recognized, if (a) it is a member state of the United Nations (or its formal successor), or, (b) more than half of UN member states formally acknowledge it as a sovereign state.\n* The continued existence of a Syrian supranational union or intergovernmental organization (such as the European Union, the Commonwealth of Nations or Commonwealth of Independent States) will bear no relevance on the resolution of this question, as long as its members are de-jure sovereign states in their own right.", "post_id": 30969, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752288049.972881, "end_time": 1787833980.699363, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752288049.972881, "end_time": 1787833980.699363, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.24795064951155685 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2182435628141144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.9052638420575493, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Syrian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) has lasted since 2011, and involved multiple phases and foreign interventions. In 2024 the Turkish-backed Islamist group Tahrir al-Sham launched a surprise offensive and soon [captured Damascus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Assad_regime), leading to the flight of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the disestablishment of the Syrian Ba'ath party that has ruled Syria since 1963.\n\nCurrently, Syria is *de facto* partitioned between various factions split along ethnic and religious lines, including the Kurdish-led SDF, various Islamist factions (some backed by Türkiye), and local militias, with a highly uncertain future. Parts of Syrian territory are also occupied and declared annexed by Israel, with its occupied area increasing since the fall of Assad.\n\nOne potential solution to the crisis is the partition of Syria into sovereign states which more closely align with its demographic composition. A historic parallel is the collapse of the Soviet Union with the constituent republics becoming sovereign states, or formal separation of Sudan and South Sudan in 2011. This might quell sectarian violence, but it could also cause new conflicts, be opposed by regional powers, or cause instability due to uneven resource distribution (e.g. most of Syria's petroleum reserves are currently in SDF-held areas.)" }, { "id": 30965, "title": "Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?", "short_title": "Withdrawal of Russian soldiers in Syria before Jan 5, 2025?", "url_title": "Withdrawal of Russian soldiers in Syria before Jan 5, 2025?", "slug": "withdrawal-of-russian-soldiers-in-syria-before-jan-5-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-12T00:52:18.167108Z", "published_at": "2024-12-12T20:16:54.316920Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.663039Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-12T20:16:54.316918Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T20:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30735, "title": "Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-12T00:52:18.167501Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T20:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T21:15:52.136921Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On December 8, 2024, a coalition of Syrian rebels entered Damascus, ultimately ousting President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow and was granted political asylum by the Russian government. \n\nRussia has had tens of thousands of troops deployed in Syria over the years, with [several thousand remaining](https://kyivindependent.com/the-russian-weapons-in-the-balance-of-syrias-regime-shift/) after the start of the war in Ukraine:\n\n> The BBC estimated that there were around 7,500 Russian soldiers in Syria as of the beginning of 2024.\n\n> “Russia always had a very limited, surgical presence in Syria, and it is easier to sustain a small presence than a large presence,” Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. She put the likely upper limit for total Russian fighters in Syria closer to 4,500.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 5, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that at least one of the following has occurred:\n\n1. The majority of the Russian soldiers that were stationed in Syria in November, 2024 have withdrawn from the country.\n2. There are fewer than 2,000 Russian soldiers stationed in Syria on any date after November 30, 2024.\n\nOtherwise, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "* With respect to #1 above, the reports need not explicitly mention November, as long as they mention that the majority of the forces have withdrawn and they do not suggest that such withdrawal took place earlier than December 2024.\n* Metaculus will use its best judgment to evaluate reports from credible sources that indicate a withdrawal has occurred. While statements from individual experts (e.g., a national security expert from academia or a think tank) will be considered, greater weight will be given to reports sourced from larger institutions, agencies, or governments (including statements from individuals speaking on behalf of such types of organizations) when determining resolution.", "post_id": 30965, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654836.787997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654836.787997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.014247886246682514 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.602141231530933, 1.6155193016830145, 0.3262663302783051, 0.9652129537209231, 0.23784222400992291, 0.0, 0.44142945691213403, 0.5829130073283081, 0.01698211627615795, 0.0, 0.002608200027234153, 0.0065036323388337515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004317504220680495, 0.0, 0.0018980425029571785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012543399915659996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007807124044234717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05025074089134997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005344667174111027, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.12983297548799, "peer_score": 16.90173554686244, "coverage": 0.9997747719728148, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997747719728148, "spot_peer_score": 36.11056083811957, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 85.12983297548799, "peer_archived_score": 16.90173554686244, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 36.11056083811957, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 259, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On December 8, 2024, a coalition of Syrian rebels entered Damascus, ultimately ousting President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow and was granted political asylum by the Russian government. \n\nRussia has had tens of thousands of troops deployed in Syria over the years, with [several thousand remaining](https://kyivindependent.com/the-russian-weapons-in-the-balance-of-syrias-regime-shift/) after the start of the war in Ukraine:\n\n> The BBC estimated that there were around 7,500 Russian soldiers in Syria as of the beginning of 2024.\n\n> “Russia always had a very limited, surgical presence in Syria, and it is easier to sustain a small presence than a large presence,” Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. She put the likely upper limit for total Russian fighters in Syria closer to 4,500." }, { "id": 30960, "title": "Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "10,000+ H5 Avian Influenza Cases in US End of 2025?", "url_title": "10,000+ H5 Avian Influenza Cases in US End of 2025?", "slug": "10000-h5-avian-influenza-cases-in-us-end-of-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-11T16:32:52.622379Z", "published_at": "2024-12-12T23:23:20.256735Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T00:59:44.930236Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-12T23:23:20.256732Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-13T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:33:38.853251Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:33:38.853251Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30732, "title": "Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-11T16:32:52.622828Z", "open_time": "2024-12-13T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-15T17:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-15T17:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 11, 2024, CDC [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) 58 human cases in the US for 2024 year-to-date. The page presents exposure sources for the cases, attributing 35 to cattle, 21 to poultry, and two to unknown causes. CDC [describes](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/php/avian-flu-summary/reported-human-infections.html) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n> HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 925 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 900 cases reported in 24 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/php/avian-flu-summary/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) reported since 1997 are available.\n\nThe spread of H5 avian influenza among birds and cattle and its spread to humans has [raised concerns](https://www.today.com/health/disease/bird-flu-pandemic-rcna183174) that it could turn into another pandemic. However, as of December 11, 2024, CDC's [summary of the current situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) states the following:\n\n> * Person-to-person spread: None\n> * Current public health risk: Low\n\nHistorically during outbreaks, CDC has used a case classification system to identify cases as confirmed, probable, or suspected. For example, see the [case classifications used for the mpox outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/mpox/hcp/case-definitions/index.html). Speaking generally, a confirmed case is one which is confirmed via laboratory testing, a probable case is one without reason to believe the symptoms may be caused by another disease coupled with some detected biological evidence, and a suspected case is one that exhibits comparable symptoms or has high clinical suspicion of being the disease in question.\n\nA genetic analysis of H5N1 published December 5, 2024 [found](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt0180) that a single mutation is all that is required for the virus to switch its [binding specificity](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5605752/) from avian to human:\n\n> A single glutamine to leucine mutation at residue 226 of the virus hemagglutinin was sufficient to enact the change from avian to human specificity. In nature, the occurrence of this single mutation could be an indicator of human pandemic risk.\n\nSee also ScienceDaily: [Scientists identify mutation that could facilitate H5N1 'bird flu' virus infection and potential transmission in humans](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/12/241205142418.htm)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have reported more than 10,000 cumulative cases of H5 avian influenza in the United States. For the purposes of this question, in the event CDC uses case categorizations, confirmed and probable cases will count, suspected cases do not. Resolution will be determined according to publicly available reports published by the CDC, currently available at [this link](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html).", "fine_print": "* For purposes of this question, all human cases of subtypes of H5 (such as H5N1) reported by CDC will count.\n* Estimates of the case incidence do not count, this question is referring only to a count of individually identified cases that are either confirmed or probable.\n* In the event CDC reports cases without providing information to assess whether case counts include confirmed, probably, or suspected cases, the case counts will be used as-is. If information is provided such that suspected cases are included in the count, the suspected cases will be excluded if possible, or the question may be resolved as ambiguous if suspected cases cannot be excluded and there are no other alternate case counts available.\n* In the event CDC uses an alternate classification to confirmed, probable, and suspected, Metaculus may clarify the question or make a determination as to which classification of cases count. Metaculus will use the [criteria published for Mpox](https://www.cdc.gov/mpox/hcp/case-definitions/index.html) as guidance in making a determination.\n* This question refers to case counts published before January 1, 2026. Publication of cases on or after that date do not count, including cases which occurred prior to January 1, 2026, but were not reported prior to that date.", "post_id": 30960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757811574.131452, "end_time": 1758071648.61962, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757811574.131452, "end_time": 1758071648.61962, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.09520164320804358 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.844757392585434, 3.567063816159209, 0.51688850530875, 0.7169644774693831, 0.07683220809210625, 0.36164207566756346, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6447747757508819 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 291, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 11, 2024, CDC [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) 58 human cases in the US for 2024 year-to-date. The page presents exposure sources for the cases, attributing 35 to cattle, 21 to poultry, and two to unknown causes. CDC [describes](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/php/avian-flu-summary/reported-human-infections.html) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n> HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 925 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 900 cases reported in 24 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/php/avian-flu-summary/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) reported since 1997 are available.\n\nThe spread of H5 avian influenza among birds and cattle and its spread to humans has [raised concerns](https://www.today.com/health/disease/bird-flu-pandemic-rcna183174) that it could turn into another pandemic. However, as of December 11, 2024, CDC's [summary of the current situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) states the following:\n\n> * Person-to-person spread: None\n> * Current public health risk: Low\n\nHistorically during outbreaks, CDC has used a case classification system to identify cases as confirmed, probable, or suspected. For example, see the [case classifications used for the mpox outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/mpox/hcp/case-definitions/index.html). Speaking generally, a confirmed case is one which is confirmed via laboratory testing, a probable case is one without reason to believe the symptoms may be caused by another disease coupled with some detected biological evidence, and a suspected case is one that exhibits comparable symptoms or has high clinical suspicion of being the disease in question.\n\nA genetic analysis of H5N1 published December 5, 2024 [found](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt0180) that a single mutation is all that is required for the virus to switch its [binding specificity](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5605752/) from avian to human:\n\n> A single glutamine to leucine mutation at residue 226 of the virus hemagglutinin was sufficient to enact the change from avian to human specificity. In nature, the occurrence of this single mutation could be an indicator of human pandemic risk.\n\nSee also ScienceDaily: [Scientists identify mutation that could facilitate H5N1 'bird flu' virus infection and potential transmission in humans](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/12/241205142418.htm)" }, { "id": 30959, "title": "Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "US HHS Declares Public Health Emergency for H5 Before 2026?", "url_title": "US HHS Declares Public Health Emergency for H5 Before 2026?", "slug": "us-hhs-declares-public-health-emergency-for-h5-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-11T15:55:12.831235Z", "published_at": "2024-12-11T17:00:14.083662Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:33:38.127063Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-11T17:00:14.083657Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-12T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:33:38.853251Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:33:38.853251Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30731, "title": "Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-11T15:55:12.831579Z", "open_time": "2024-12-12T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T17:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T17:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 11, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), report [58 confirmed human cases of H5 avian influenza](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) in the United States. So far 56 of these cases have been connected to exposure from cattle or poultry, though the exposure source of two of these cases is unknown.\n\nThe spread of H5 avian influenza among birds and cattle and its spread to humans has [raised concerns](https://www.today.com/health/disease/bird-flu-pandemic-rcna183174) that it could turn into another pandemic. However, as of December 11, 2024, CDC's [summary of the current situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) states the following:\n\n> * Person-to-person spread: None\n> * Current public health risk: Low\n\nIn the United States, declarations of a [public health emergency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_(United_States)) (PHE) can allow the government to [take a number of emergency preparedness and response actions](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/phe-qa.aspx). [According to the US Department of Health and Human Services](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/pages/default.aspx) (HHS):\n\n>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency; or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists. \n\nThe HHS maintains [a page of all prior PHE declarations](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/pages/default.aspx) since August of 2005, including for the four disease outbreaks designated in that period of [H1N1](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/h1n1-26Apr2009.aspx), [Zika](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/zika-pr.aspx), [COVID-19](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/2019-nCoV.aspx), and [Mpox](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx), each of which was renewed at least once.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has declared a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza.", "fine_print": "* To qualify, a public health emergency must be declared which names H5 avian influenza in some form. This could include naming H5 or any subtype of H5, or any name given to H5 or highly pathogenic avian influenza that, in the judgment of Metaculus, encompasses H5 or any subtype of H5. Announcements of public health emergencies are typically [posted at the HHS website](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/pages/default.aspx).\n* The intention is for this question to resolve based on any public health emergency declared by the HHS. Therefore, this question does not have additional requirements beyond the declaration (for example, human-to-human transmission is not required).\n* In the event the law is changed such that a non-HHS agency is expected to be responsible for declaring such emergencies, Metaculus may clarify or annul this question.\n* The state or territory designated for the public health emergency is immaterial, any declaration will count.", "post_id": 30959, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757954007.214866, "end_time": 1758809527.954, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757954007.214866, "end_time": 1758809527.954, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06050376952336932 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.497526481627774, 1.832485233011242, 1.1333207929387088, 1.1712772741247381, 1.029334083536778, 0.0, 0.39457387486909756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 266, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 11, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), report [58 confirmed human cases of H5 avian influenza](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) in the United States. So far 56 of these cases have been connected to exposure from cattle or poultry, though the exposure source of two of these cases is unknown.\n\nThe spread of H5 avian influenza among birds and cattle and its spread to humans has [raised concerns](https://www.today.com/health/disease/bird-flu-pandemic-rcna183174) that it could turn into another pandemic. However, as of December 11, 2024, CDC's [summary of the current situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) states the following:\n\n> * Person-to-person spread: None\n> * Current public health risk: Low\n\nIn the United States, declarations of a [public health emergency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_(United_States)) (PHE) can allow the government to [take a number of emergency preparedness and response actions](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/phe-qa.aspx). [According to the US Department of Health and Human Services](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/pages/default.aspx) (HHS):\n\n>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency; or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists. \n\nThe HHS maintains [a page of all prior PHE declarations](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/pages/default.aspx) since August of 2005, including for the four disease outbreaks designated in that period of [H1N1](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/h1n1-26Apr2009.aspx), [Zika](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/zika-pr.aspx), [COVID-19](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/2019-nCoV.aspx), and [Mpox](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx), each of which was renewed at least once." }, { "id": 30953, "title": "Will the Grouse Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 20, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-grouse-mountain-ski-resort-be-listed-as-open-by-on-the-snows-ski-report-on-december-20-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-11T14:32:17.557641Z", "published_at": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.031740Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T21:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30726, "title": "Will the Grouse Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-11T14:32:17.557641Z", "open_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T21:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-20T21:05:55.781026Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Vancouver Sun February 2024: ['Feels like a ripoff': Ski pass holders expecting discounts as some B.C. mountains remain closed](https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ski-pass-holders-expecting-discounts-as-bc-mountains-remain-closed)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Grouse Mountain Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/british-columbia/grouse-mountain/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after December 20, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 30953, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734016083.909045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9083333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734016083.909045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9083333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.125, 0.875 ], "means": [ 0.8476643934136118 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"title": "Will the United States have 100.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-11T14:32:17.544561Z", "open_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:59:16.653052Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, 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How that can affect the food industry.](https://abcnews.go.com/US/half-us-experiencing-drought-affect-food-industry/story?id=115102946)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions) lists greater than or equal to 100.0 million people in the U.S. affected by drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 100.0 million, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30952, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734012887.524816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8941666666666667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734012887.524816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8941666666666667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8024094429400432 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25190162765868773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1081734561155712, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0913879912412616, 1.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.453773905255222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.05631572831624624, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.2581744010322857, 0.11525585627893538, 1.205553229182776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 74.23539052037296, "peer_score": 5.242166853448381, "coverage": 0.9995825701510465, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9995825701510465, "spot_peer_score": 0.711317780463873, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 74.23539052037296, "peer_archived_score": 5.242166853448381, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.711317780463873, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Almost half of the US is experiencing drought. How that can affect the food industry.](https://abcnews.go.com/US/half-us-experiencing-drought-affect-food-industry/story?id=115102946)" }, { "id": 30951, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Homestead, scheduled to open December 20, 2024, exceed $7,000,000?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-domestic-opening-weekend-box-office-revenue-of-homestead-scheduled-to-open-december-20-2024-exceed-7000000", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-11T14:32:17.530664Z", "published_at": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.532377Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-23T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-25T00:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30724, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Homestead, scheduled to open December 20, 2024, exceed $7,000,000?", "created_at": "2024-12-11T14:32:17.530664Z", "open_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-23T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-25T00:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-25T00:25:54.408676Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Homestead, according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt29137778/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) exceeds USD $7,000,000.00. If the number is less than or equal to that, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. 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According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday." }, { "id": 30950, "title": "Before Jan 1, 2025, will Ontario Premier Doug Ford call an early provincial election scheduled for 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-jan-1-2025-will-ontario-premier-doug-ford-call-an-early-provincial-election-scheduled-for-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-11T14:32:17.515966Z", "published_at": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.983315Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T04:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30723, "title": "Before Jan 1, 2025, will Ontario Premier Doug Ford call an early provincial election scheduled for 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-11T14:32:17.515966Z", "open_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T04:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T04:05:42.325139Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Premier Doug Ford from the Canadian Province of Ontario has ruled out the possibility of an election in 2024 but has not definitively ruled out calling an early election in 2025. While the province’s next fixed election date is scheduled for June 2026, Ford has stated that preparations for potential elections are underway, including setting a December 2024 deadline for his party's members of provincial parliament to decide whether they will run again. Ford emphasized the importance of readiness and has encouraged year-round door-knocking efforts by Progressive Conservative caucus members.\n\nThe political climate in Ontario has been charged with speculation about an early election. Opposition parties have ramped up campaign preparations. The Ontario New Democrats raised $1.1 million over the summer of 2024, citing strong grassroots support. The Ontario Liberals, under new leader Bonnie Crombie, have raised nearly $3 million since December 2023 and have started organizing campaign staff and volunteers. Both parties have linked Ford's potential motivation for an early election to controversies such as the RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt land swap, which initially removed protected land for development but was reversed after public backlash.\n\nIn response to election speculation, Ford has shifted focus to key policy issues, including job creation, healthcare, education, and infrastructure projects. However, opposition parties argue that Ford may use an early election to circumvent growing criticism and investigations. \n\nThis political backdrop raises questions about whether Doug Ford will leverage his majority government status to call an election in 2025.\n\nSource: [The Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/ford-rules-out-ontario-election-in-2024-but-could-call-an-early-election-in-2025/article_12533cae-3492-55f5-90ee-fb0cad937426.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before Jan 1, 2025, Ontario provincial elections are called and voting is scheduled to take place before January 1, 2026. If no elections are called before Jan 1, 2025, or if elections are called but voting is scheduled for 2026, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the first issued writ of election. A potential postponement or change in the election date will not affect the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 30950, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734012888.794245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734012888.794245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.825, 0.175 ], "means": [ 0.1619616600764181 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7878189315102613, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.48771611134499143, 0.0, 0.6274806018311287, 0.7479978514510517, 0.0, 0.7449467310887843, 0.0, 0.055351681451673844, 0.0, 1.1524603524531234, 0.0, 0.0, 2.636404938736908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0790051830574851, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.5257244506372711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 79.2978839478848, "peer_score": 7.92784218714162, "coverage": 0.9991508471883005, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9991508471883005, "spot_peer_score": 1.8122853278846935, "spot_baseline_score": 72.2466024471091, "baseline_archived_score": 79.2978839478848, "peer_archived_score": 7.92784218714162, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.8122853278846935, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 72.2466024471091 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Premier Doug Ford from the Canadian Province of Ontario has ruled out the possibility of an election in 2024 but has not definitively ruled out calling an early election in 2025. While the province’s next fixed election date is scheduled for June 2026, Ford has stated that preparations for potential elections are underway, including setting a December 2024 deadline for his party's members of provincial parliament to decide whether they will run again. Ford emphasized the importance of readiness and has encouraged year-round door-knocking efforts by Progressive Conservative caucus members.\n\nThe political climate in Ontario has been charged with speculation about an early election. Opposition parties have ramped up campaign preparations. The Ontario New Democrats raised $1.1 million over the summer of 2024, citing strong grassroots support. The Ontario Liberals, under new leader Bonnie Crombie, have raised nearly $3 million since December 2023 and have started organizing campaign staff and volunteers. Both parties have linked Ford's potential motivation for an early election to controversies such as the RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt land swap, which initially removed protected land for development but was reversed after public backlash.\n\nIn response to election speculation, Ford has shifted focus to key policy issues, including job creation, healthcare, education, and infrastructure projects. However, opposition parties argue that Ford may use an early election to circumvent growing criticism and investigations. \n\nThis political backdrop raises questions about whether Doug Ford will leverage his majority government status to call an election in 2025.\n\nSource: [The Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/ford-rules-out-ontario-election-in-2024-but-could-call-an-early-election-in-2025/article_12533cae-3492-55f5-90ee-fb0cad937426.html)" }, { "id": 30923, "title": "Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?", "short_title": "Major AI Lab Claims to Have Created AGI in 2025?", "url_title": "Major AI Lab Claims to Have Created AGI in 2025?", "slug": "major-ai-lab-claims-to-have-created-agi-in-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-10T23:32:55.582148Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T19:59:24.809172Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T05:34:19.679731Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T19:59:24.809170Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 396, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30655, "title": "Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?", "created_at": "2024-12-10T23:32:55.582514Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T19:59:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T19:59:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Progress in artificial intelligence has surged in recent years with generative AI tool adoption [surging in the corporate world](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai), and use by a significant portion of the US public for [writing](https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2024/08/08/c472d/1) and for [help in making decisions](https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2024/11/21/b9187/1).\n\nThe rapid AI development has raised questions about the potential of achieving [artificial general intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence) (AGI). Definitions of AGI vary, but in general most definitions align with the interpretation of an AI system operating at or above human level in a broad range of tasks. A number of thinkers have [expressed concern](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence) about risks to humanity posed by the development of AGI and a majority of Americans described their feelings about advances in AI development as \"cautious\" in a [March 2024 survey](https://today.yougov.com/technology/articles/49099-americans-2024-poll-ai-top-feeling-caution). However, some top AI labs have explicitly targeted AGI development as a goal they are pursuing, including [OpenAI](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/), [DeepMind](https://www.theverge.com/23778745/demis-hassabis-google-deepmind-ai-alphafold-risks), and [Meta](https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/18/24042354/mark-zuckerberg-meta-agi-reorg-interview).\n\nThere is much uncertainty and [disagreement](https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/9/24316969/mustafa-suleyman-sam-altman-microsoft-openai-agi) about when AGI will be achieved, in part because of the varying definitions. While fuzzy definitions might make it difficult to clearly discern when AGI has arrived (for example, see a [recent claim](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/we-have-already-achieved-agi-openai-employee-claims) from December 2024 that AGI has already been achieved) one metric that may be clearer is when a leading AI lab will first publicly claim to have developed AGI.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, during calendar year 2025, any one of the listed AI labs below or labs' leadership publicly claims to have created artificial general intelligence (AGI).\n\n* [<u>OpenAI</u>](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/380117/openai-microsoft-sam-altman-nonprofit-for-profit-foundation-artificial-intelligence)\n* [<u>Anthropic</u>](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23794855/anthropic-ai-openai-claude-2)\n* Google (including [<u>DeepMind</u>](https://deepmind.google/))\n* [<u>Microsoft</u>](https://www.theverge.com/24314821/microsoft-ai-ceo-mustafa-suleyman-google-deepmind-openai-inflection-agi-decoder-podcast)\n* [<u>Nvidia</u>](https://venturebeat.com/ai/nvidia-just-dropped-a-bombshell-its-new-ai-model-is-open-massive-and-ready-to-rival-gpt-4/)\n* [<u>xAI</u>](https://x.ai/)\n* [<u>Meta/Facebook</u>](https://ai.meta.com/)\n* [<u>Mistral</u>](https://www.axios.com/2024/02/29/mistral-french-ai-startup-microsoft)\n* [<u>Databricks</u>](https://www.databricks.com/blog/introducing-dbrx-new-state-art-open-llm)\n* [<u>World Labs</u>](https://www.worldlabs.ai/)\n* [<u>Safe Superintelligence</u>](https://ssi.inc/)\n* [<u>Hugging Face</u>](https://huggingface.co/)\n* [<u>Scale AI</u>](https://scale.com/)\n* [<u>Magic.dev</u>](https://magic.dev/)\n* [<u>Amazon</u>](https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/aws/amazon-nova-artificial-intelligence-bedrock-aws)\n* [<u>Apple</u>](https://machinelearning.apple.com/research/introducing-apple-foundation-models)\n* [<u>Netflix</u>](https://netflixtechblog.com/supporting-diverse-ml-systems-at-netflix-2d2e6b6d205d)\n* [<u>IBM</u>](https://www.ibm.com/watson)", "fine_print": "* A lab will be considered to have claimed to have created AGI if the company or an official representative states publicly that the company considers an AI system they have created to be artificial general intelligence. An official representative must be clearly speaking on behalf of the company.\n* A public claim or statement of opinion by lab leadership that they have developed an AI system that they consider to be AGI will also be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**. Lab leadership will be considered to be the chief executive of each organization, or equivalent, or their nearest equivalent successor in the event they depart the company or eliminate the CEO position. If an organization is structured such that its AI lab is part of a larger organization and the AI lab has a clear chief executive, in most cases we will count both the chief executive of the organization and the chief executive of its AI lab. As of December 19, 2024, this is the comprehensive list of qualifying leadership:\n * OpenAI: CEO Sam Altman\n * Anthropic: CEO Dario Amodei\n * Google and DeepMind: CEO Sundar Pichai and CEO Demis Hassabis\n * Microsoft and Microsoft AI: CEO Satya Nadella and CEO Mustafa Suleyman\n * NVIDIA: CEO Jensen Huang\n * xAI: CEO Elon Musk\n * Meta: CEO Mark Zuckerberg\n * Mistral: CEO Arthur Mensch\n * Databricks: CEO Ali Ghodsi\n * World Labs: CEO Fei-Fei Li\n * Safe Superintelligence: CEO Daniel Gross\n * Hugging Face: CEO Clem Delangue\n * Scale AI: CEO Alexandr Wang\n * Magic.dev: CEO Eric Steinberger\n * Amazon: CEO Andy Jassy\n * Apple: CEO Tim Cook\n * Netflix: Co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters\n * IBM: CEO Arvind Krishna \n* A statement will generally qualify if it represents a claim, position, or opinion of the organization or top leadership. For example, a CEO stating their belief that the organization has created AGI would resolve the question as **Yes**, including in informal settings such as podcast appearances, interviews, or X.com. Statements that do not clearly attribute a position to the organization or CEO are not sufficient. For example, if a CEO were to say \"I think that the AI system we have developed would satisfy some definitions of AGI\" that would **not** be sufficient, because it does not clearly state a belief in having developed AGI under a definition they hold, only that they believe it satisfies definitions of AGI that others hold.\n* There are no requirements on the AI system that is referred to as AGI, there need not be public details, access, or announcements about such a system. However, a statement must refer to a system that the lab claims it has developed. A statement such as \"We are currently developing AGI\" or \"We are currently training AGI\" is not sufficient. Claims will generally be taken at face value, for example a claim that AGI has been developed will be sufficient, even if there is evidence to the contrary indicating that the system has not been completed.\n* Metaculus will assess potentially qualifying statements and reporting and make a determination as to whether the criteria were satisfied. In the event of unclear statements, Metaculus may wait for clarifications or additional context or resolve the question as **ambiguous**.", "post_id": 30923, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757914448.778277, "end_time": 1758618919.154, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757914448.778277, "end_time": 1758618919.154, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03373266422833961 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.929212976791172, 5.501730478371651, 2.1163284966428475, 1.0107716894359173, 0.2858492786928506, 0.35691164678296516, 0.1422525850402983, 0.27797981890228807, 0.6448605597771061, 0.7698637587639674, 0.916112682070395, 0.002048449536482931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038224956930720685, 0.06843712552385435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013234669626303248, 0.027991989394575686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005669169382514439, 0.0, 0.02979010002799532, 0.306195326928103, 0.0, 0.01669706824366661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002588628657294159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07196574818631601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007691549884751123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005126911695283252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011862080558890362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033692361436616726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.78597359043253e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0821532170887025 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 961, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Progress in artificial intelligence has surged in recent years with generative AI tool adoption [surging in the corporate world](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai), and use by a significant portion of the US public for [writing](https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2024/08/08/c472d/1) and for [help in making decisions](https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2024/11/21/b9187/1).\n\nThe rapid AI development has raised questions about the potential of achieving [artificial general intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence) (AGI). Definitions of AGI vary, but in general most definitions align with the interpretation of an AI system operating at or above human level in a broad range of tasks. A number of thinkers have [expressed concern](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence) about risks to humanity posed by the development of AGI and a majority of Americans described their feelings about advances in AI development as \"cautious\" in a [March 2024 survey](https://today.yougov.com/technology/articles/49099-americans-2024-poll-ai-top-feeling-caution). However, some top AI labs have explicitly targeted AGI development as a goal they are pursuing, including [OpenAI](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/), [DeepMind](https://www.theverge.com/23778745/demis-hassabis-google-deepmind-ai-alphafold-risks), and [Meta](https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/18/24042354/mark-zuckerberg-meta-agi-reorg-interview).\n\nThere is much uncertainty and [disagreement](https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/9/24316969/mustafa-suleyman-sam-altman-microsoft-openai-agi) about when AGI will be achieved, in part because of the varying definitions. While fuzzy definitions might make it difficult to clearly discern when AGI has arrived (for example, see a [recent claim](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/we-have-already-achieved-agi-openai-employee-claims) from December 2024 that AGI has already been achieved) one metric that may be clearer is when a leading AI lab will first publicly claim to have developed AGI.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 30922, "title": "Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "new glenn launch before Jan 1 2025", "url_title": "new glenn launch before Jan 1 2025", "slug": "new-glenn-launch-before-jan-1-2025", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-10T23:20:23.918226Z", "published_at": "2024-12-12T00:52:26.306297Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.090869Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-12T00:52:26.306295Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30654, "title": "Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-10T23:20:23.918639Z", "open_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T12:32:26.699959Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/), founded by [Jeff Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), is preparing for the [inaugural launch](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/12/intrigue-swirls-as-blue-origin-races-toward-year-end-deadline-for-new-glenn/) of its highly anticipated [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rocket. This heavy-lift orbital launch vehicle, named after astronaut John Glenn, represents a key step in the company’s mission to advance commercial spaceflight and compete with other aerospace giants such as SpaceX. The rocket features a 7-meter-diameter payload fairing, providing significant capacity compared to conventional boosters, and is designed for both government and commercial customers.\n\nThe rocket is currently at Launch Complex-36 in Florida, with Blue Origin targeting a first flight by the end of 2024. However, a hot-fire test, a critical step before liftoff, has faced [repeated delays](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/08/21/bezos-blue-origin-suffers-fiery-setback-building-new-rocket/), and final regulatory approvals are pending from the Federal Aviation Administration. However, the company has publicly signaled that the rocket is \"[on track](https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/09/blue-origin-says-new-glenn-on-track-to-launch-before-end-of-2024/?guccounter=1)\" for its maiden flight.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Blue Origin's New Glenn launch vehicle leaves the launchpad under its own power.\n\nIf this does not occur before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* This question refers to an integrated configuration of the launch vehicle, consisting of at least [two stages](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn#Description_and_technical_specifications).", "post_id": 30922, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735699231.098804, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735699231.098804, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0025879683896401534 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.368336039306426, 0.244053997121433, 0.7253808034215454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014880789282801683, 0.008438284300033617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001469195406109808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007174272378120552, 0.0, 0.002018898677062105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003341999642790191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009709321843095519, 0.004137083572762841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.53817763492773, "peer_score": 5.828218533092869, "coverage": 0.9999688871065469, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999688871065469, "spot_peer_score": 8.635100660467783, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 80.53817763492773, "peer_archived_score": 5.828218533092869, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.635100660467783, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 304, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/), founded by [Jeff Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), is preparing for the [inaugural launch](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/12/intrigue-swirls-as-blue-origin-races-toward-year-end-deadline-for-new-glenn/) of its highly anticipated [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rocket. This heavy-lift orbital launch vehicle, named after astronaut John Glenn, represents a key step in the company’s mission to advance commercial spaceflight and compete with other aerospace giants such as SpaceX. The rocket features a 7-meter-diameter payload fairing, providing significant capacity compared to conventional boosters, and is designed for both government and commercial customers.\n\nThe rocket is currently at Launch Complex-36 in Florida, with Blue Origin targeting a first flight by the end of 2024. However, a hot-fire test, a critical step before liftoff, has faced [repeated delays](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/08/21/bezos-blue-origin-suffers-fiery-setback-building-new-rocket/), and final regulatory approvals are pending from the Federal Aviation Administration. However, the company has publicly signaled that the rocket is \"[on track](https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/09/blue-origin-says-new-glenn-on-track-to-launch-before-end-of-2024/?guccounter=1)\" for its maiden flight." }, { "id": 30921, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza?", "short_title": "Palestinians Can Return to Northern Gaza Before 2026?", "url_title": "Palestinians Can Return to Northern Gaza Before 2026?", "slug": "palestinians-can-return-to-northern-gaza-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-10T22:20:48.178263Z", "published_at": "2024-12-20T19:59:09.789696Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.078208Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-20T19:59:09.789694Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-27T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 123, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30653, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza?", "created_at": "2024-12-10T22:20:48.178676Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-25T19:58:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-25T19:58:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-27T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-17T20:11:31.269205Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the beginning of its [ground operations in Gaza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip) in October 2023, Israel has repeatedly issued evacuation warnings for regions of Gaza, advising residents in those regions to move to designated humanitarian areas. According to a [BBC article published in May of 2024](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c299pl8j8w7o):\n\n> More than three-quarters of Gaza's territory have been designated as evacuation zones by the Israeli military since the war against Hamas began in October, an analysis by BBC Arabic has found.\n> \n> The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has issued evacuation orders to Gazans since Israel launched a military campaign on 7 October in response to a cross-border attack that day by Hamas, in which about 1,200 people were killed and 252 people were taken hostage. The Israeli response has killed more than 35,000 people in Gaza so far, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.\n> \n> The BBC’s analysis shows the cumulative areas designated as evacuation zones amount to 281 sq km (108 sq miles). That is the equivalent of 77% of Gaza's territory.\n\nInitially focusing its ground operation on northern Gaza, Israel later expanded the operation to southern Gaza, and was [reported to have retreated from northern Gaza in July 2024](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/12/middleeast/israeli-military-withdrawal-central-northern-gaza-palestinians-killed-intl/index.html). However, in October 2024, Israel [resumed operations in northern Gaza](https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/12/middleeast/israel-military-push-northern-gaza-intl/index.html).\n\nThe conflict in Gaza and the resulting evacuations have [caused international concern about displaced Palestinians](https://www.hrw.org/report/2024/11/14/hopeless-starving-and-besieged/israels-forced-displacement-palestinians-gaza). Concerns were elevated in early November 2024, when it was reported that Palestinians may not be allowed back to northern Gaza. [According to CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-offensive-beit-lahiya-idf-says-civilians-not-allowed-back/):\n\n> Briefing journalists Tuesday night, Brigadier General Itzik Cohen, who commands the IDF's 162nd Division operating in Gaza, said that since troops had been forced to enter some areas twice, including the Jabaliya camp, \"there is no intention of allowing the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes.\"\n\nHowever, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/07/idf-israel-military-no-return-remarks-north-gaza) that the IDF distanced itself from that statement and that the comments had been taken out of context.\n\nThe IDF normally announces evacuation zones and humanitarian areas through its representatives, for example through [Avichay Adraee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avichay_Adraee), Head of the Arab Media Division of the IDF Spokesperson's Unit. For example, see Adraee's posts on X from [October 8, 2024](https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1843647422829879299) and [October 12, 2024](https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1844966449091100695/photo/1), stating areas which must be evacuated corresponding to the IDF's resumed push into northern Gaza. The posts include images depicting blocks within Gaza, corresponding to a [map of numbered blocks released by the IDF](https://www.idf.il/ar/%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A/%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A/swordsofiron-011223-150/) (note, if the map is showing only blue you may need to zoom out, or alternatively open it in a private browsing window without location access).\n\nThe IDF has [stated that it is not forcibly displacing Palestinians](https://www.axios.com/2024/11/20/israel-northern-gaza-ultimatum-palestinians), saying in a [November 2024 letter to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25351674-response-letter-minister-dermer-and-minister-katz/):\n\n> Israel affirms that it had no and has no policy of forced evacuation of civilians from anywhere in the Gaza Strip, including northern Gaza. At no point has Israel issued \"Evacuation Orders\" anywhere in the Gaza Strip throughout the war. Rather, Israel warns the civilians population in a certain area, prior to operating in that area, in accordance with the Laws of Armed Conflict, and urges them to distance themselves from areas of intense hostilities.\n> \n> No civilian is forced to leave, and the population that chooses to remain in these areas is taken into consideration in the operational planning, including the facilitation of humanitarian assistance.\n\nWhether and when Palestinian civilians will be able to safely return to northern Gaza remains an open question. In April 2024 it was reported that thousands of Palestinians attempted to return to northern Gaza, but [CNN reported that the IDF stated](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/14/middleeast/palestinians-return-northern-gaza-intl-latam/index.html):\n\n> The northern Gaza Strip continues to be an active war zone and return to the area is not currently permitted.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\nNote: This question appears in the Future Perfect 2025 Community and Tournament, but is no longer slated to appear in Vox's January 1, 2025 article. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, Israel has formally stated that it is safe for Palestinians to return to northern Gaza, specifically the area of the [Beit Hanoun Health Center](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Aidah+Beit+Hanoun/@31.5407083,34.5390744,330m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m10!1m2!2m1!1sbeit+hanoun+health+center+gaza!3m6!1s0x15028188cbafd5cd:0x13f92e208e4d9c8f!8m2!3d31.5406459!4d34.5401705!15sCh5iZWl0IGhhbm91biBoZWFsdGggY2VudGVyIGdhemGSAQ5tZWRpY2FsX2NsaW5pY-ABAA!16s%2Fg%2F11c209862_?entry=ttu\\&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTIwOC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D) within block 581 as [designated by the IDF](https://www.idf.il/ar/%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A/%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A/swordsofiron-011223-150/).", "fine_print": "* To qualify, the government of Israel or official representatives of Israel must formally state that it is safe for Palestinians to return to the area encompassing the Beit Hanoun Health Center, located at coordinates [31°32'26.5\"N 34°32'24.6\"E](https://www.google.com/maps/place/31%C2%B032'26.5%22N+34%C2%B032'24.6%22E/@31.5406986,34.5376014,961m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d31.5406941!4d34.5401763?entry=ttu\\&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTIwOC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D). Currently the IDF [has designated](https://www.idf.il/ar/%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A/%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A/swordsofiron-011223-150/) the area encompassing this location as block 581. The question will still resolve as **Yes** in the event Israel makes a statement satisfying these criteria but using a different convention to refer to this location, or clearly referring to an area encompassing this location, without explicitly referring to block 581 or to the health center.\n* Reporting from credible sources that some or many residents have been able to safely return to the designated area will **not** be sufficient on its own. A statement by Israel or its representatives that the area is safe for residents to return to is required.\n* Reporting that conditions are still dangerous or unsafe in or near the designated area are immaterial, only a statement by the Israeli government is required.\n* The designation of the specified area as a humanitarian area will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**. However, the designation of the area as a humanitarian corridor for travel but not for residing will not be sufficient.\n* Whether Israel annexes or otherwise asserts ownership of the designated location is immaterial. The question can still resolve as **Yes** if Israel takes formal or de facto possession of the territory and then announces that it is safe for Palestinian residents to return there. However, if Israel takes possession of the location and does not release such a statement before the specified deadline the question will resolve as **No**.\n* Metaculus will assess potentially qualifying statements and reporting and make a determination as to whether the above criteria are satisfied. In the event of unclear statements, Metaculus may wait for clarifications and additional context or resolve the question as **ambiguous**.", "post_id": 30921, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739719728.66659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739719728.66659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8619649822302049 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0034881248374202933, 0.6414685304526314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004810466323190302, 0.0, 0.0, 3.868608937826673e-05, 0.0028910814349410842, 0.2666281848210543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003409065805187293, 0.0010995266122422818, 0.0002062514325037591, 0.0036628263129618597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0068082088651473405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29056296551723815, 0.0, 0.02282810235621228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030520199565116056, 0.0, 0.2034245824365027, 0.0, 0.0010272041057623365, 0.055597033023758104, 0.0, 0.7175874190737297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007286220533113514, 0.0045237333575877765, 0.14016826792747997, 0.0665598048610934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020483954047965738, 0.0, 0.0059390538704059016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.125121709754941e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008885828565973313, 0.007238259767728452, 0.0, 0.012388349146363926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03192490595089939, 0.019268836541077788, 0.20926388919560143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31223565535141085, 1.8878829323317208e-05, 0.0631467982519309, 0.024201859846705455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052319291258168005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08968235991409243, 1.8845893689771622, 0.5090621456261915, 0.0, 0.009351053392530643, 0.20498100732674363, 0.11161204255558092, 1.386999656560344, 1.0795165924666552, 0.8451809943241114, 0.5883106983028246, 0.2732134548016644, 5.118928874116082, 1.254321184839398, 0.7539445128855735, 0.19567183027733326, 6.209065606624452 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -3.766159462776511, "peer_score": 3.8261436899779064, "coverage": 0.09921495303430601, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9971984780662342, "spot_peer_score": 37.92192710166158, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": -3.766159462776511, "peer_archived_score": 3.8261436899779064, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.92192710166158, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 294, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the beginning of its [ground operations in Gaza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip) in October 2023, Israel has repeatedly issued evacuation warnings for regions of Gaza, advising residents in those regions to move to designated humanitarian areas. According to a [BBC article published in May of 2024](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c299pl8j8w7o):\n\n> More than three-quarters of Gaza's territory have been designated as evacuation zones by the Israeli military since the war against Hamas began in October, an analysis by BBC Arabic has found.\n> \n> The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has issued evacuation orders to Gazans since Israel launched a military campaign on 7 October in response to a cross-border attack that day by Hamas, in which about 1,200 people were killed and 252 people were taken hostage. The Israeli response has killed more than 35,000 people in Gaza so far, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.\n> \n> The BBC’s analysis shows the cumulative areas designated as evacuation zones amount to 281 sq km (108 sq miles). That is the equivalent of 77% of Gaza's territory.\n\nInitially focusing its ground operation on northern Gaza, Israel later expanded the operation to southern Gaza, and was [reported to have retreated from northern Gaza in July 2024](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/12/middleeast/israeli-military-withdrawal-central-northern-gaza-palestinians-killed-intl/index.html). However, in October 2024, Israel [resumed operations in northern Gaza](https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/12/middleeast/israel-military-push-northern-gaza-intl/index.html).\n\nThe conflict in Gaza and the resulting evacuations have [caused international concern about displaced Palestinians](https://www.hrw.org/report/2024/11/14/hopeless-starving-and-besieged/israels-forced-displacement-palestinians-gaza). Concerns were elevated in early November 2024, when it was reported that Palestinians may not be allowed back to northern Gaza. [According to CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-offensive-beit-lahiya-idf-says-civilians-not-allowed-back/):\n\n> Briefing journalists Tuesday night, Brigadier General Itzik Cohen, who commands the IDF's 162nd Division operating in Gaza, said that since troops had been forced to enter some areas twice, including the Jabaliya camp, \"there is no intention of allowing the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes.\"\n\nHowever, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/07/idf-israel-military-no-return-remarks-north-gaza) that the IDF distanced itself from that statement and that the comments had been taken out of context.\n\nThe IDF normally announces evacuation zones and humanitarian areas through its representatives, for example through [Avichay Adraee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avichay_Adraee), Head of the Arab Media Division of the IDF Spokesperson's Unit. For example, see Adraee's posts on X from [October 8, 2024](https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1843647422829879299) and [October 12, 2024](https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1844966449091100695/photo/1), stating areas which must be evacuated corresponding to the IDF's resumed push into northern Gaza. The posts include images depicting blocks within Gaza, corresponding to a [map of numbered blocks released by the IDF](https://www.idf.il/ar/%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A/%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A/swordsofiron-011223-150/) (note, if the map is showing only blue you may need to zoom out, or alternatively open it in a private browsing window without location access).\n\nThe IDF has [stated that it is not forcibly displacing Palestinians](https://www.axios.com/2024/11/20/israel-northern-gaza-ultimatum-palestinians), saying in a [November 2024 letter to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25351674-response-letter-minister-dermer-and-minister-katz/):\n\n> Israel affirms that it had no and has no policy of forced evacuation of civilians from anywhere in the Gaza Strip, including northern Gaza. At no point has Israel issued \"Evacuation Orders\" anywhere in the Gaza Strip throughout the war. Rather, Israel warns the civilians population in a certain area, prior to operating in that area, in accordance with the Laws of Armed Conflict, and urges them to distance themselves from areas of intense hostilities.\n> \n> No civilian is forced to leave, and the population that chooses to remain in these areas is taken into consideration in the operational planning, including the facilitation of humanitarian assistance.\n\nWhether and when Palestinian civilians will be able to safely return to northern Gaza remains an open question. In April 2024 it was reported that thousands of Palestinians attempted to return to northern Gaza, but [CNN reported that the IDF stated](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/14/middleeast/palestinians-return-northern-gaza-intl-latam/index.html):\n\n> The northern Gaza Strip continues to be an active war zone and return to the area is not currently permitted.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\nNote: This question appears in the Future Perfect 2025 Community and Tournament, but is no longer slated to appear in Vox's January 1, 2025 article. " }, { "id": 30920, "title": "O preço médio da gasolina no Brasil será maior do que R$7 por litro em Fevereiro de 2025?", "short_title": "Preço da gasolina maior que R$ 7/L em Fevereiro de 2025?", "url_title": "Preço da gasolina maior que R$ 7/L em Fevereiro de 2025?", "slug": "preco-da-gasolina-maior-que-r-7l-em-fevereiro-de-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-10T19:39:11.959203Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T22:34:13Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.409014Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T22:34:13Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T19:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T19:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-11T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-07T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 222, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. 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Preço do Petróleo no Mercado Internacional: Como o petróleo é a matéria-prima da gasolina, variações no preço do barril de petróleo no mercado global afetam diretamente o custo da gasolina.\n2. Taxa de Câmbio: A gasolina é comprada, em parte, em dólares. Portanto, a desvalorização do real frente ao dólar aumenta o custo de importação, o que impacta o preço final no Brasil.\n3. Custo de Refino: O preço de refinar o petróleo para produzir gasolina também é um fator relevante. Isso inclui os custos operacionais das refinarias, que podem variar com a tecnologia e o custo de insumos.\n4. Tributos e Impostos: A gasolina no Brasil tem uma carga tributária significativa, incluindo o ICMS (Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços) que varia de estado para estado, além de outros impostos federais.\n5. Política da Petrobras: A política de preços da Petrobras, que ajusta os preços da gasolina com base nas flutuações do mercado internacional e nos custos internos de produção, também afeta o preço da gasolina.\n\n[ANP (Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis)](https://www.anp.gov.br)\n[Petrobras](https://www.petrobras.com.br)", "resolution_criteria": "Considera-se \"SIM\":\n\nConsidera-se atendido o critério quando, na primeira semana de março de 2025, a Petrobras divulgar, em seu site [oficial Petrobras](https://precos.petrobras.com.br/sele%C3%A7%C3%A3o-de-estados-gasolina), que o preço médio da gasolina entre os estados do Brasil, referente à média dos preços registrados na última semana de Fevereiro de 2025 (de 23 a 28 de fevereiro), for superior a R$ 7,00 por litro.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30920, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740772571.342772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 221, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740772571.342772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 221, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.19799692874370636 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.543881229905542, 0.7623929557028042, 0.004373955129400943, 0.23464984851515788, 0.8735858384727951, 1.9670481896184135, 0.4407539424321575, 1.8183411779111174, 1.5538239480933749, 0.5787375623713824, 3.370022521057432, 0.0027138716702355247, 0.5310695252779252, 0.27047706559259616, 0.7697286434574278, 0.7037449674436516, 0.6623827643914821, 0.37017979042341703, 0.23634268827929192, 0.06696227926080381, 0.8868532350238089, 0.0177830702934728, 0.0005970973120939868, 0.10970767624022133, 0.009418093448998476, 0.027038814087251173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33224312436605313, 0.0, 0.5870144096432937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0645895650823797, 0.00026578597811144404, 0.026583127576234808, 0.520274696823386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10903353136174188, 0.07807327875430242, 0.0006218858681570857, 0.057167659696035496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.506986065247798e-07, 0.032694591737141114, 0.000246381299759915, 0.8841254182394042, 0.0064714788423206404, 0.0, 8.26243609506742e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026223571765156484, 0.0, 0.46797857330326476, 0.6875009957154566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9768261779915747e-06, 0.0006646604082365681, 0.011965087574714145, 0.010353417647063344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21754716765429663, 4.929280931368133e-06, 0.001418054039749901, 0.0, 0.0002864734160361554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3777114412331851, 0.4625421294746751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19450212471561718, 0.0, 0.05459527140874352, 0.027415655017758837, 0.0, 0.01911357176433092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1630906898667737 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.93492364599436, "peer_score": 46.295610499750815, "coverage": 0.9945993725881352, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9945993725881352, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 75.93492364599436, "peer_archived_score": 46.295610499750815, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 456, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "O preço da gasolina no Brasil é influenciado por vários fatores, sendo os principais:\n\n1. Preço do Petróleo no Mercado Internacional: Como o petróleo é a matéria-prima da gasolina, variações no preço do barril de petróleo no mercado global afetam diretamente o custo da gasolina.\n2. Taxa de Câmbio: A gasolina é comprada, em parte, em dólares. Portanto, a desvalorização do real frente ao dólar aumenta o custo de importação, o que impacta o preço final no Brasil.\n3. Custo de Refino: O preço de refinar o petróleo para produzir gasolina também é um fator relevante. Isso inclui os custos operacionais das refinarias, que podem variar com a tecnologia e o custo de insumos.\n4. Tributos e Impostos: A gasolina no Brasil tem uma carga tributária significativa, incluindo o ICMS (Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços) que varia de estado para estado, além de outros impostos federais.\n5. Política da Petrobras: A política de preços da Petrobras, que ajusta os preços da gasolina com base nas flutuações do mercado internacional e nos custos internos de produção, também afeta o preço da gasolina.\n\n[ANP (Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis)](https://www.anp.gov.br)\n[Petrobras](https://www.petrobras.com.br)" }, { "id": 30911, "title": "Will Jeff Bezos be ranked in the top 2 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jeff-bezos-be-ranked-in-the-top-2-of-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-10T14:12:16.395291Z", "published_at": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.848188Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30641, "title": "Will Jeff Bezos be ranked in the top 2 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-10T14:12:16.395291Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T04:03:58.396068Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B. Jeff Bezos was 4th, with 200.9B. Bernard Arnault & family\nwas 5th, with $183.1B. And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Jeff Bezos is in 2nd place or better on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "A tie will count as **Yes**. If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). 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ByteDance had an event in June.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/13/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), TikTok or ByteDance have layoffs following the launch of this question and before January 1, 2025, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on or after January 1, 2025 and see if TikTok or ByteDance appears for the time in question. If TikTok or ByteDance are not listed as having a layoff event during that period, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. 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", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/13/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Apple has layoffs following the launch of this question and before January 1, 2025, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on or after January 1, 2025 and see if Apple appears for November 2024 or December 2024. If Apple is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Apple. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.", "post_id": 30909, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733923529.842458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.256 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733923529.842458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.256 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21663622173423047 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8739574836057534, 0.9147633448549574, 0.5544531992453388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 1.8586738037639716, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7947776216722918, 0.16798662710965054, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5819435107335093, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.55042850640773, "peer_score": 10.297017154175538, "coverage": 0.9993153216551852, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9993153216551852, "spot_peer_score": 4.424342401279602, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 73.55042850640773, "peer_archived_score": 10.297017154175538, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.424342401279602, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Apple has had layoff events listed by Tech Crunch for February and April 2024. " }, { "id": 30908, "title": "Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-year-over-year-increase-in-rent-in-dallas-tx-in-november-2024-be-greater-than-or-equal-to-00-according-to-zillow", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-10T14:12:16.355504Z", "published_at": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.039428Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T14:23:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30638, "title": "Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow?", "created_at": "2024-12-10T14:12:16.355504Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T14:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-12T14:23:42.580026Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Observed Rent Index for Dallas, TX has risen by ≥0.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under RENTALS, make sure Data Type is set to \"ZORI (Smoothed): All Homes Plus Multifamily Time Series\" and Geography is set to \"Metro & U.S.\" The RegionName \"Dallas, TX\" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)", "fine_print": "Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, \"We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs.\" In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. In the event the chart and CSV report different figures, the CSV will take precedence.", "post_id": 30908, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733923673.561418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.8083333333333332 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.868 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733923673.561418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.8083333333333332 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.868 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19166666666666676, 0.8083333333333332 ], "means": [ 0.7618283270371898 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 1.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.404570129218758, 0.3268262380230357, 1.5854767571288004, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.7197174317530641, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2192956435530053, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.4018509725102, "peer_score": 23.415420642983545, "coverage": 0.9990651618992842, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9990651618992842, "spot_peer_score": 17.54153096728999, "spot_baseline_score": 69.30222465786089, "baseline_archived_score": 71.4018509725102, "peer_archived_score": 23.415420642983545, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.54153096728999, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 69.30222465786089 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. " }, { "id": 30907, "title": "Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Virginia Beach, VA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 4.0%, according to Zillow?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-year-over-year-increase-in-prices-of-homes-in-virginia-beach-va-in-november-2024-be-greater-than-or-equal-to-40-according-to-zillow", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-10T14:12:16.322855Z", "published_at": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.404523Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T14:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30637, "title": "Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Virginia Beach, VA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 4.0%, according to Zillow?", "created_at": "2024-12-10T14:12:16.322855Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T14:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-12T14:24:48.303175Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-11T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Zillow Home Value Index, Raw for Virginia Beach, VA has risen by ≥4.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Zillow Home Value Index, Raw (ZHVI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under HOME VALUES, make sure Data Type is set to \"ZHVI All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op) Time Series, Raw, Mid-Tier ($)\" and Geography is set to \"Metro & U.S.\" The RegionName \"Virginia Beach, VA\" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)", "fine_print": "Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, \"We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs.\" In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. 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Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null }, { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T18:53:30.562646Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30628, "title": "Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-09T23:42:59.023835Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T20:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-05T15:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-06T13:37:02.458535Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T15:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President Elect Donald Trump has announced that Elon Musk will serve an advisory role as head of the planned [Department of Government Efficiency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Efficiency) (DOGE), alongside Vivek Ramaswamy. Trump has [said](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1856658569124262092) that DOGE will \". . .dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies. . .\" DOGE is [anticipated to be structured as an advisory commission](https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-doge-trump-legal-requirments-what-is-faca-2024-12), because DOGE does not yet exist and because federal government offices [must be created by Congress](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-S2-C2-3-6/ALDE_00000012/#essay-1). The Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) typically [governs](https://www.gsa.gov/policy-regulations/policy/federal-advisory-committee-management/advice-and-guidance/when-is-faca-applicable) such advisory committees.\n\nHowever, some observers have cited [Trump's track record of parting ways with officials he's selected](https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2017/08/politics/trump-admin-departures-trnd/), sometimes in [especially hostile fashion](https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/08/politics/jeff-sessions-donald-trump-insults/index.html), to suggest that Trump and Musk's positive relationship [may](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/elon-musk-trump-donald-mar-a-lago-appointment-position-rcna179826) [not](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/22/elon-musk-donald-trump) [last](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/opinion/elon-musk-trump-election.html).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) have reported **both** of the following:\n\n* Elon Musk no longer serves an advisory role to Donald Trump. This will be considered to be true if Elon Musk ceases to hold either a formal federal government position or an advisory position serving at an organization governed by the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) or any other officially recognized advisory organization. This includes if Elon Musk does not at any point attain such a position during the year 2025.\n * If Elon Musk ceases to hold an advisory position because he is becoming a full federal government employee, or vice versa, this will not be considered to have occurred. Musk must cease to be both a government employee and an advisor simultaneously. Transfers in status where Musk temporarily ceases to hold either role do not count.\n* Donald Trump has publicly criticized Elon Musk during a time while Musk is no longer serving on a government or advisory position. Public criticism will generally not be taken to include jokes, backhanded compliments, snide remarks, or other non-serious insults or veiled insults. To count, a criticism must unambiguously convey dislike or dissatisfaction with Musk.\n\nOtherwise, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Metaculus will consult media characterizations of Trump's comments on Musk to aid in determining if criticism has occurred. Metaculus will assess multiple sources of various political leanings to aid in limiting bias in assessing whether Trump has publicly criticized Musk.\n* A criticism must be public to count, indirect reports, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n* Whether Musk is fired or resigns is immaterial.\n* If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three Admins will vote on how the question should resolve.", "post_id": 30891, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749130020.048924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1811, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749130020.048924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1811, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.6956683920144968 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.1841729782958846, 5.153385202215092e-12, 0.00034452949183605273, 0.3130418788680659, 0.0024681136659086885, 0.00107729338331502, 0.07254302869332531, 0.05394494336128033, 0.023248465132700156, 0.004612860632621251, 0.28483012109002714, 0.27946640175430715, 0.0006806585793985428, 0.5177157150264087, 0.01903772515017472, 0.3374685541031974, 0.007337283321623182, 0.2227581558760942, 0.1796110058369585, 0.022233441542426867, 0.5584742789042105, 0.028047051088561908, 0.0014775749172587253, 0.015073040272336203, 0.04555853040992577, 0.23319572105177452, 0.004751304692403086, 0.0027112374995127714, 0.011501606919973296, 0.0, 0.984059475157713, 0.30069531577162506, 0.023629770074940437, 0.22050233952036818, 0.004058641165163978, 0.9511574276991748, 0.01863859725254353, 0.044638718463644235, 2.1466327758939747, 0.006602137679713347, 1.1114750372256483, 0.037189081965020146, 0.10138392900208285, 0.024284803534527447, 0.24877408438579987, 0.9696280236656772, 0.6701611783688336, 0.038846260872165216, 0.009111660184435402, 4.396801280752622e-11, 1.0862731874758833, 0.3484224550195525, 0.0635290918426123, 0.24590145089898166, 0.3125527492228769, 1.5460502356247532, 1.9273002467268563, 0.3812705295999088, 0.0, 0.06672597698531443, 2.4889680452978626, 0.4016736623751288, 0.24880738508818734, 0.7409219576007247, 1.321224654971465, 5.649251123128835, 1.867863116910803, 2.44762047993853, 0.7996922060265408, 0.2460056862842705, 4.475916790422102, 1.0906455170850546, 0.12026719902141567, 1.722809036390625, 0.9434806197843749, 5.961451431132105, 1.2014582953574686, 1.9009241447003533, 1.3200254999575132, 1.1253182175168843, 10.910164821472133, 1.1126564798985654, 1.982759549764562, 0.06194663343554204, 0.10210202061655922, 2.8654260737382042, 0.011266149968036807, 1.2585011817766134, 1.345267006433669, 0.1986244614681826, 2.6649968640441726, 0.01009878792560926, 1.103428922333515, 5.321796227811899e-08, 1.428680381922669e-12, 0.7820663704966991, 0.9429076435137117, 0.0, 2.8835776053633375e-06, 4.869250773748812 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -7.559097808973701, "peer_score": 13.914109085445933, "coverage": 0.44328391855093063, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9995551905592989, "spot_peer_score": 15.765852692699216, "spot_baseline_score": -47.39311883324123, "baseline_archived_score": -7.559097808973701, "peer_archived_score": 13.914109085445933, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.765852692699216, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -47.39311883324123 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 54, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3657, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President Elect Donald Trump has announced that Elon Musk will serve an advisory role as head of the planned [Department of Government Efficiency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Efficiency) (DOGE), alongside Vivek Ramaswamy. Trump has [said](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1856658569124262092) that DOGE will \". . .dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies. . .\" DOGE is [anticipated to be structured as an advisory commission](https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-doge-trump-legal-requirments-what-is-faca-2024-12), because DOGE does not yet exist and because federal government offices [must be created by Congress](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-S2-C2-3-6/ALDE_00000012/#essay-1). The Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) typically [governs](https://www.gsa.gov/policy-regulations/policy/federal-advisory-committee-management/advice-and-guidance/when-is-faca-applicable) such advisory committees.\n\nHowever, some observers have cited [Trump's track record of parting ways with officials he's selected](https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2017/08/politics/trump-admin-departures-trnd/), sometimes in [especially hostile fashion](https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/08/politics/jeff-sessions-donald-trump-insults/index.html), to suggest that Trump and Musk's positive relationship [may](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/elon-musk-trump-donald-mar-a-lago-appointment-position-rcna179826) [not](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/22/elon-musk-donald-trump) [last](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/opinion/elon-musk-trump-election.html).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." } ] }
