Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1440
{ "count": 5913, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1460", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1420", "results": [ { "id": 30890, "title": "Fernanda Torres ganhará o Oscar de Melhor Atriz em 2025?", "short_title": "Fernanda Torres vencerá o Oscar 2025?", "url_title": "Fernanda Torres vencerá o Oscar 2025?", "slug": "fernanda-torres-vencera-o-oscar-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-09T20:19:04.269849Z", "published_at": "2025-01-14T23:13:19.830303Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.125926Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-14T23:13:19.830300Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-02T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-02T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-03T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-03T03:40:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-14T23:13:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30627, "title": "Fernanda Torres ganhará o Oscar de Melhor Atriz em 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-09T20:19:04.270201Z", "open_time": "2025-01-14T23:13:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-14T23:13:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-14T23:13:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-03T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-03T03:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-03T16:46:33.362041Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-02T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-02T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Fernanda Torres (59) é uma atriz brasileira, filha de dois grandes nomes da dramaturgia brasileira, Fernanda Montenegro e Fernando Torres.\n\nA sua atuação no filme \"Eu Ainda Estou Aqui\" (2024), do diretor Walter Salles, tem sido aclamado pelo público nacional e internacional, vencendo o prêmio Critics Choice Awards, na categoria de Melhor Atriz Estrangeira [Reportagem](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/entretenimento/fernanda-torres-ganha-premio-internacional-e-agradece-a-distancia-veja-discurso/)\n\nHá 25 anos, a sua mãe, Fernanda Montenegro, foi indicada ao Oscar pelo filme de sucesso do mesmo diretor, Walter Salles 'Central do Brasil'.\n\nNa ocasião, Fernanda Montenegro perdeu o prêmio para Gwyneth Paltrow, na atuação de Shakespeare Apaixonado [Reportagem](https://www.band.uol.com.br/entretenimento/afinal-por-que-fernanda-montenegro-nao-ganhou-o-oscar-por-central-do-brasil-16639412)", "resolution_criteria": "Considera-se \"SIM\":\n\nResultado oficial da Cerimônia da The Academy Awards, a ser transmitida ao vivo por canais de televisão ou internet, além de divulgação das mídia brasileira ou internacional.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30890, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740912742.760033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740912742.760033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.41769915138803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6394332910070424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4512058906735414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 1.0773230216341048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3694854406094255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32660023718433717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 19.490073017066564, "peer_score": 35.394917142688534, "coverage": 0.9566122919458693, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9566122919458693, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 19.490073017066564, "peer_archived_score": 35.394917142688534, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fernanda Torres (59) é uma atriz brasileira, filha de dois grandes nomes da dramaturgia brasileira, Fernanda Montenegro e Fernando Torres.\n\nA sua atuação no filme \"Eu Ainda Estou Aqui\" (2024), do diretor Walter Salles, tem sido aclamado pelo público nacional e internacional, vencendo o prêmio Critics Choice Awards, na categoria de Melhor Atriz Estrangeira [Reportagem](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/entretenimento/fernanda-torres-ganha-premio-internacional-e-agradece-a-distancia-veja-discurso/)\n\nHá 25 anos, a sua mãe, Fernanda Montenegro, foi indicada ao Oscar pelo filme de sucesso do mesmo diretor, Walter Salles 'Central do Brasil'.\n\nNa ocasião, Fernanda Montenegro perdeu o prêmio para Gwyneth Paltrow, na atuação de Shakespeare Apaixonado [Reportagem](https://www.band.uol.com.br/entretenimento/afinal-por-que-fernanda-montenegro-nao-ganhou-o-oscar-por-central-do-brasil-16639412)" }, { "id": 30880, "title": "Will Nikola Corporation file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nikola-corporation-file-for-bankruptcy-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-09T14:14:54.090447Z", "published_at": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.695913Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30617, "title": "Will Nikola Corporation file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-09T14:14:54.090447Z", "open_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:55:44.982925Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nikola Corp (formerly Nikola Motor Company) has been on many analysts' and investors' lists of being near bankruptcy for several months. ([Example 1](https://investorplace.com/2024/05/3-ev-stocks-nearing-bankruptcy-time-to-cut-your-losses/).) ([Example 2](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2023/12/15/with-81-bankruptcy-chance-per-macroaxis-nikola-stock-is-not-cheap/).) However, others [say](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nikola-stock-2025-forecast:-will-nkla-go-bankrupt-or-become-a-multibagger) Nikola might hold on for at least a few more quarters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Nikola Corporation files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30880, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733840824.955401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3083333333333334 ], "centers": [ 0.5866666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733840824.955401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3083333333333334 ], "centers": [ 0.5866666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41333333333333333, 0.5866666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.5452517856602594 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.07073615502467667, 0.15769724562820026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.5917742424428909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2691216848159464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6569673477836253, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9640744042678477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2164275523098163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -0.8981919690932387, "peer_score": 11.820487708769402, "coverage": 0.9997992054290242, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997992054290242, "spot_peer_score": -3.9146711270449734, "spot_baseline_score": -27.462238010900574, "baseline_archived_score": -0.8981919690932387, "peer_archived_score": 11.820487708769402, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.9146711270449734, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -27.462238010900574 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nikola Corp (formerly Nikola Motor Company) has been on many analysts' and investors' lists of being near bankruptcy for several months. ([Example 1](https://investorplace.com/2024/05/3-ev-stocks-nearing-bankruptcy-time-to-cut-your-losses/).) ([Example 2](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2023/12/15/with-81-bankruptcy-chance-per-macroaxis-nikola-stock-is-not-cheap/).) However, others [say](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nikola-stock-2025-forecast:-will-nkla-go-bankrupt-or-become-a-multibagger) Nikola might hold on for at least a few more quarters." }, { "id": 30879, "title": "Will Climeworks still exist on December 31, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-climeworks-still-exist-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-09T14:14:54.076204Z", "published_at": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.427716Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T16:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30616, "title": "Will Climeworks still exist on December 31, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-12-09T14:14:54.076204Z", "open_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T16:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-11T16:52:10.955073Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": ">Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\n\n>They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\n\n>This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\n\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\n\n**This question asks:**\n> On December 31, 2024, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\n\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. 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"recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see [this list of cases](https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/), including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS\nattempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit’s data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we’ve had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1st, 2025 a credible source reports an AI has gained unauthorized access to a computer system in a way that meets the following criteria:\n\n• The AI was not trained to or directed to gain access to the system in question by any actor. See additional clarifications in footnotes (1, 2, 3) in the fine print.\n\n• The system it gained access to was not open to the public, and the AI was not given any relevant credentials in advance.\n\nIf the above points are not confirmed by the source (for instance, the article author is unsure if there was a human directing the AI), this does **not** resolve as **Yes** until some credible source gives high confidence in these factors.\n\nThe unauthorized access could be to user level accounts, admin level accounts, data stores, or any other reasonable interpretation of a computer system with restricted access. Any of these types of access is sufficient to resolve as **Yes** if all above conditions hold. Additionally, the source does not have to use the exact terms ‘independent’, ‘unauthorized access’, ‘AI’ or ‘computer system’ if the meaning is there.\n\nAs an example, imagine a credible source reports that an ML algorithm directed and / or trained to target certain people on social media and convince them to vote for Party X, decided on its own to hack into their Facebook user accounts so it could use their personal data to create a more convincing argument. This would resolve as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "1) The AI may have been asked to fulfill a nearby goal, such as ‘make lots of money appear in this bank account’ or ‘make this political party win’ – if they independently decide to access a restricted computer system they are not authorized for to achieve these goals, that resolves as **Yes**.\n\n2) An AI that was trained more broadly to gain unauthorized access eg. to ‘get access to as many user accounts in as many companies as possible, using brute force password hacking’ does **not** resolve as **Yes**, as it was still directed to hack a set of systems that the reported case was included in.\n\n3) The AI may have human assistance and still resolve as **Yes** if this is not directional assistance (for instance, it may choose to use social engineering techniques to have a human who doesn’t know it’s true purpose give up password details).", "post_id": 30878, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733840861.540376, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733840861.540376, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08590108084448782 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1947577452040086, 0.5767570526497378, 0.6217354789053313, 1.253146640739577, 1.5269578335699374, 0.0, 1.2110425596117214, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0188554884170147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.0050122116014, "peer_score": 1.2436804559381038, "coverage": 0.9994336236682202, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994336236682202, "spot_peer_score": 1.902620678566633, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 93.0050122116014, "peer_archived_score": 1.2436804559381038, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.902620678566633, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see [this list of cases](https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/), including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS\nattempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit’s data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we’ve had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance)." }, { "id": 30877, "title": "Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q4 2024 compared with Q3 2024? 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", "created_at": "2024-12-09T14:14:54.034403Z", "open_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T23:35:30.388069Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Q3 2024, Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles. In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 462,890 vehicles delivered for the fourth quarter of 2024. If it reports deliveries of 462,890 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected January 2, 2025. 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In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. 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Like other newspapers, it has faced years of declining revenues and in September 2024 [announced](https://investors.gannett.com/news/news-details/2024/Gannett-Announces-Debt-Repayment--Refinancing-Update/default.aspx) asset sales to help it manage some of its senior debt.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Gannett Co., Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733840893.794983, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733840893.794983, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14077475692036992 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.6118878846272201, 0.0, 1.4470123964098967, 1.2030052409478724, 1.0571925225840113, 0.023631498669224205, 0.3618408815355444, 0.0, 0.9028160680084347, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38478094711074695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9088389339440446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.02417137839234, "peer_score": 3.045787361673085, "coverage": 0.9991199611099781, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9991199611099781, "spot_peer_score": 1.665103166676527, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 89.02417137839234, "peer_archived_score": 3.045787361673085, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.665103166676527, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gannett is the largest owner of newspaper in the US, as measured by daily and Sunday circulation. Like other newspapers, it has faced years of declining revenues and in September 2024 [announced](https://investors.gannett.com/news/news-details/2024/Gannett-Announces-Debt-Repayment--Refinancing-Update/default.aspx) asset sales to help it manage some of its senior debt." }, { "id": 30870, "title": "Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?", "short_title": "Undiagnosed DRC disease identified before 2025?", "url_title": "Undiagnosed DRC disease identified before 2025?", "slug": "undiagnosed-drc-disease-identified-before-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-09T12:14:53.370110Z", "published_at": "2024-12-12T00:52:03.827565Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.924963Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-12T00:52:03.827563Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": 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"resolution_set_time": "2025-01-09T13:50:04.498462Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [WHO](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546):\n\n> Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the cases, 31 deaths have been registered. The majority of cases reported are among children, particularly those under five years of age. The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season. Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours. These challenges, coupled with limited diagnostics in the region, have delayed the identification of the underlying cause. Rapid response teams have been deployed to identify the cause of the outbreak and strengthen the response. The teams are collecting samples for laboratory testing, providing a more detailed clinical characterization of the detected cases, investigating the transmission dynamics, and actively searching for additional cases, both within health facilities and at the community level. The teams are also aiding with the treatment of patients, risk communication and community engagement. Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor. Malaria is a common disease in this area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases. Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 7, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) reports that the disease outbreak previously reported as undiagnosed [here](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546) has been identified as having been predominantly caused by one or more of the following: Influenza, COVID-19, or RSV. If it is identified as a different disease or if no such reports are released before January 7, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Reports by other organisations besides the WHO will not resolve this question, unless their findings are explicitly endorsed by the WHO.\n* The report has to be certain about the identity of the disease, stating that cases have been confirmed as such. A report mentioning likely candidate diseases or using language like \"the most probable cause is \\[X]\" or \"suspected cases\" will not resolve this question.\n* By “predominantly caused by”, we mean that the WHO reports that a majority of cases of death or illness resulting from the disease outbreak were caused by one or more of the three diseases identified above. By contrast, if the WHO reports that a majority of these cases of death or illness resulting from the disease outbreak were caused by one or more other diseases not named above, this question would resolve **No**, notwithstanding that a minority of cases may have been caused by one or more of the diseases named above.", "post_id": 30870, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735625033.618269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735625033.618269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.028631122812697876 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.387773790614796, 0.6645426059212045, 0.4299318448315297, 1.5520340518510136, 0.0, 1.7998465635041043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003576932888935743, 0.0, 0.009723111673611546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9269913390863959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 88.36581553247845, "peer_score": 3.758914182853736, "coverage": 0.9999746969274239, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999746969274239, "spot_peer_score": 9.186166015310416, "spot_baseline_score": 69.59938131099001, "baseline_archived_score": 88.36581553247845, "peer_archived_score": 3.758914182853736, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.186166015310416, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 69.59938131099001 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [WHO](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546):\n\n> Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the cases, 31 deaths have been registered. The majority of cases reported are among children, particularly those under five years of age. The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season. Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours. These challenges, coupled with limited diagnostics in the region, have delayed the identification of the underlying cause. Rapid response teams have been deployed to identify the cause of the outbreak and strengthen the response. The teams are collecting samples for laboratory testing, providing a more detailed clinical characterization of the detected cases, investigating the transmission dynamics, and actively searching for additional cases, both within health facilities and at the community level. The teams are also aiding with the treatment of patients, risk communication and community engagement. Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor. Malaria is a common disease in this area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases. Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths." }, { "id": 30863, "title": "Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Elon Musk be world's richest person on Dec 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Elon Musk be world's richest person on Dec 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-elon-musk-be-worlds-richest-person-on-dec-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-09T02:38:59.674748Z", "published_at": "2024-12-09T12:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T18:42:04.576934Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-09T12:44:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:05:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1445, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32564, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2025 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/acx-2025-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-10T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-09T22:37:35.440712Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T18:53:30.562646Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30605, "title": "Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-09T02:38:59.675173Z", "open_time": "2024-12-20T21:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bloomberg maintains its [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), which is a tracker that is updated every day, ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. In recent years, the list [has been topped](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires) by Bernard Arnault & family, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates. As of December 20, 2024, Elon Musk is in first place on the list, with \\$455 billion, as compared with Jeff Bezos in second place with \\$242 billion, Mark Zuckerberg in third place with \\$211 billion, and Larry Ellison in fourth place with \\$190 billion.\n\nElon Musk's wealth comes first and primarily from his shares of [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/). According to Tesla's [proxy statement for 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048040/tm2326076d13_pre14a.htm), Musk beneficially owned 20.5% of Tesla's shares. With a [market cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/) at the time of this question of 1.249 Trillion, his stake in Tesla is worth 256 billion.\n\nSecondly, Elon Musk [reportedly owns](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/musk-net-worth-spacex-trump-b2660290.html) 42% of [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/), which was recently valued at \\$210 billion. This stake is worth \\$88 billion, at that valuation. Additional stakes owned by Musk are 54%of [xAI](https://x.ai/), a startup valued at 50 billion; [Neuralink](https://neuralink.com/), which was valued at \\$5 billion; the [Boring Company](http://www.boringcompany.com/), valued at \\$5.68 billion in 2022, and, X (formerly Twitter), which was [recently valued](https://www.axios.com/2024/12/01/elon-musk-x-fidelity-mark-up) at about \\$12 billion.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), Elon Musk is ranked #1 in net worth when the resolution source is accessed by Metaculus on December 31, 2025. If Musk is not ranked #1, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* If both Elon Musk and another individual are ranked #1, this resolves as **No**.\n* If the Billionaires Index is not available on December 31, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available. If it is not available before January 4, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n* Bloomberg outlines its methodology [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/methodology/).\n* In the event of Bloomberg changing its methodology for calculating the net worths of the individuals on its list, Admins will make a determination about whether the change is substantial enough to annul the question, at their discretion.", "post_id": 30863, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757883628.72565, "end_time": 1758241059.338, "forecaster_count": 281, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757883628.72565, "end_time": 1758241059.338, "forecaster_count": 281, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7274205895077721 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.628351854871037e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22341659936636363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25824945790836157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005971403972633066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006975172184670848, 0.0, 0.006632891210865195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3623883448948761, 0.2629461570790656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1068456582171262, 0.45192452652572573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24640885302023138, 0.00044237111824264495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7046123612620807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2715986699231099, 0.0, 1.79893260164441, 1.1001633615912405, 0.0010045213748501429, 1.3702191238467227, 0.0010722304712191477, 1.8616098247948984, 0.31900284350542735, 0.0, 0.10421455004165886, 0.4379424375849369, 6.430982440189078, 0.025007794366205077, 0.09864089762482305, 0.05546993764085883, 1.0045093809826404, 1.8677930135607141, 0.2991816238489293, 0.21820471252639204, 0.03262922474306089, 0.7270523705262173, 2.322317265576328, 0.9453555174450365, 0.7924088620785659, 0.24080111010922906, 0.1833300890812503, 1.2405347045156399, 0.45497474268996385, 0.06683767500310837, 3.161383489462508e-05, 0.13332999394508824, 0.14927248961627188, 0.19558604114079162, 0.2016536292929633, 0.22534395232113352, 0.2147255604434104 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 31, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2635, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bloomberg maintains its [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), which is a tracker that is updated every day, ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. In recent years, the list [has been topped](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires) by Bernard Arnault & family, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates. As of December 20, 2024, Elon Musk is in first place on the list, with \\$455 billion, as compared with Jeff Bezos in second place with \\$242 billion, Mark Zuckerberg in third place with \\$211 billion, and Larry Ellison in fourth place with \\$190 billion.\n\nElon Musk's wealth comes first and primarily from his shares of [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/). According to Tesla's [proxy statement for 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048040/tm2326076d13_pre14a.htm), Musk beneficially owned 20.5% of Tesla's shares. With a [market cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/) at the time of this question of 1.249 Trillion, his stake in Tesla is worth 256 billion.\n\nSecondly, Elon Musk [reportedly owns](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/musk-net-worth-spacex-trump-b2660290.html) 42% of [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/), which was recently valued at \\$210 billion. This stake is worth \\$88 billion, at that valuation. Additional stakes owned by Musk are 54%of [xAI](https://x.ai/), a startup valued at 50 billion; [Neuralink](https://neuralink.com/), which was valued at \\$5 billion; the [Boring Company](http://www.boringcompany.com/), valued at \\$5.68 billion in 2022, and, X (formerly Twitter), which was [recently valued](https://www.axios.com/2024/12/01/elon-musk-x-fidelity-mark-up) at about \\$12 billion.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 30855, "title": "Will NASA replace the Space Launch System (SLS) with another launch vehicle for its Artemis missions before 2030?", "short_title": "Will NASA replace SLS with another rocket?", "url_title": "Will NASA replace SLS with another rocket?", "slug": "will-nasa-replace-sls-with-another-rocket", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-08T09:18:00.300189Z", "published_at": "2024-12-10T15:18:46.186756Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.485803Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-10T15:18:46.186754Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-12T15:18:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30600, "title": "Will NASA replace the Space Launch System (SLS) with another launch vehicle for its Artemis missions before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-12-08T09:18:00.300599Z", "open_time": "2024-12-12T15:18:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-15T15:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-15T15:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is NASA's flagship heavy-lift rocket designed for deep space missions, including the Artemis program aimed at returning humans to the Moon. However, the SLS program has faced significant challenges, including delays and high costs. In September 2023, NASA officials [acknowledged](https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105609) that \"at current cost levels, the SLS program is unaffordable,\" prompting discussions about more sustainable alternatives.\n\nThe Artemis missions have experienced multiple postponements. For instance, the Artemis III mission, initially planned for 2024, has been delayed to at least 2027 due to technical issues with the Orion spacecraft's heat shield.\n\nAmid these challenges, NASA's Inspector General suggested considering commercial heavy-lift vehicles as alternatives to the SLS for future Artemis missions, highlighting the potential for more affordable options.\n\nIn December 2024, President Donald Trump [nominated Jared Isaacman](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-picks-jared-isaacman-head-nasa-2024-12-04/), a private astronaut and CEO of Shift4 Payments, as the new NASA Administrator. Isaacman, known for his collaboration with SpaceX, is expected to advocate for increased privatization in space exploration, which could influence the future of the SLS program.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, any Artemis mission launches with a different vehicle than the SLS or if NASA officially announces that it will replace the SLS with another launch vehicle for any of the Artemis missions.", "fine_print": "- An official announcement is defined as a public statement from NASA or a directive from the U.S. government indicating the replacement of the SLS.\n\n- The resolution will be based on official NASA communications or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 30855, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757424401.912105, "end_time": 1761880226.136, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757424401.912105, "end_time": 1761880226.136, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.9150653211156601 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3996377171273138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1122128468034793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.11506274851461015 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is NASA's flagship heavy-lift rocket designed for deep space missions, including the Artemis program aimed at returning humans to the Moon. However, the SLS program has faced significant challenges, including delays and high costs. In September 2023, NASA officials [acknowledged](https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105609) that \"at current cost levels, the SLS program is unaffordable,\" prompting discussions about more sustainable alternatives.\n\nThe Artemis missions have experienced multiple postponements. For instance, the Artemis III mission, initially planned for 2024, has been delayed to at least 2027 due to technical issues with the Orion spacecraft's heat shield.\n\nAmid these challenges, NASA's Inspector General suggested considering commercial heavy-lift vehicles as alternatives to the SLS for future Artemis missions, highlighting the potential for more affordable options.\n\nIn December 2024, President Donald Trump [nominated Jared Isaacman](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-picks-jared-isaacman-head-nasa-2024-12-04/), a private astronaut and CEO of Shift4 Payments, as the new NASA Administrator. Isaacman, known for his collaboration with SpaceX, is expected to advocate for increased privatization in space exploration, which could influence the future of the SLS program." }, { "id": 30836, "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elon-musk-have-double-the-wealth-of-the-second-richest-person-on-any-day-before-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.657444Z", "published_at": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.500271Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30587, "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.657444Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:50:55.357781Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It is rare for the richest person or the richest family to double the wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates achieved this [in 1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#1999) when he reached $90 billion while Warren Buffett was at $36 billion, and was close [in 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001). The Walton family also achieved this in 1993 and 1994.\n\nAs of December 2, 2024 the net worth of the five richest individuals in the world is\n- Elon Musk: $353B\n- Jeff Bezos: $231B\n- Mark Zuckerberg: $210B\n- Larry Ellison: $198B\n- Bernard Arnault: $171B", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any single day after December 3, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, Elon Musk's net worth is equal to at least double the second richest person in the world, according to [Bloomberg's Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).", "fine_print": "In case Bloomberg's index is not available, Forbes [similar list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/) may be used.", "post_id": 30836, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733578827.306273, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.067 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733578827.306273, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.067 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.933, 0.067 ], "means": [ 0.11581173103405172 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.295306332275565, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.7397764153657209, 2.428407653613675, 0.1687033331669892, 1.1111233357590407, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0984802882918076, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.9881476662267858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.33047934295216, "peer_score": 2.8026898247599448, "coverage": 0.9998047775333678, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998047775333678, "spot_peer_score": 2.9805184163434997, "spot_baseline_score": 89.99489861896717, "baseline_archived_score": 91.33047934295216, "peer_archived_score": 2.8026898247599448, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.9805184163434997, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 89.99489861896717 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It is rare for the richest person or the richest family to double the wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates achieved this [in 1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#1999) when he reached $90 billion while Warren Buffett was at $36 billion, and was close [in 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001). The Walton family also achieved this in 1993 and 1994.\n\nAs of December 2, 2024 the net worth of the five richest individuals in the world is\n- Elon Musk: $353B\n- Jeff Bezos: $231B\n- Mark Zuckerberg: $210B\n- Larry Ellison: $198B\n- Bernard Arnault: $171B" }, { "id": 30835, "title": "Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-france-have-a-new-prime-minister-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.537394Z", "published_at": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.461753Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T14:29:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30586, "title": "Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.537394Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T14:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T14:29:45.991047Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):\r\n> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion\r\n\r\n[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/):\r\n> French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday [December 4] on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy.\r\n> Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a new French Prime Minister has been appointed.", "fine_print": "- A potential vote of no confidence on the new PM will not affect resolution.\r\n- A caretaker PM will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 30835, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733578827.995048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733578827.995048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7995686256685766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.9198568034369161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 1.0631349357138649, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04633289385926926, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 2.533608155916184, 0.8736393668438112, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.28307053233759993 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.76111483402177, "peer_score": 9.00076724294763, "coverage": 0.9996300619895812, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996300619895812, "spot_peer_score": 5.610853255448285, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 83.76111483402177, "peer_archived_score": 9.00076724294763, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.610853255448285, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):\r\n> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion\r\n\r\n[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/):\r\n> French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday [December 4] on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy.\r\n> Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit." }, { "id": 30834, "title": "Will the closing price of CAC 40 be less than 7,200 on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-closing-price-of-cac-40-be-less-than-7200-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.340428Z", "published_at": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.138159Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30585, "title": "Will the closing price of CAC 40 be less than 7,200 on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.340428Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:49:25.006595Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The CAC 40 is a benchmark French stock market index, representing a capitalisation-weighted measure of the 40 most significant stocks among the 100 largest market caps on the Euronext Paris. [Politico reports](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/) that markets have been unsettled by the prospect of the collapse of the French PM, with the CAC 40, falling by 0.2% on December 2, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the close price of the CAC 40 for December 31, 2024 according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFCHI/history/) is <7,400.", "fine_print": "- If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, alternative credible sources may be used.\r\n- Euronext Paris [is expected](https://www.tradinghours.com/markets/euronext-paris) to open on December 31, 2024. Nonetheless, if neither Yahoo Finance nor other credible sources published a number for that date, the close price for December 30, 2024 will be used.", "post_id": 30834, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733578828.609445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.193 ], "centers": [ 0.355 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47615053002944363 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733578828.609445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.193 ], "centers": [ 0.355 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47615053002944363 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.645, 0.355 ], "means": [ 0.34641331001146497 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6414130977087752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3278398929163613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.06460822876323534, 0.07195035317227556, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.5035187872155226, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 36.737106564852944, "baseline_score": 54.35216928687195, "peer_score": 14.886489601181763, "coverage": 0.9994532569221877, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994532569221877, "spot_peer_score": 1.895154155079692, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 36.737106564852944, "baseline_archived_score": 54.35216928687195, "peer_archived_score": 14.886489601181763, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.895154155079692 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The CAC 40 is a benchmark French stock market index, representing a capitalisation-weighted measure of the 40 most significant stocks among the 100 largest market caps on the Euronext Paris. [Politico reports](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/) that markets have been unsettled by the prospect of the collapse of the French PM, with the CAC 40, falling by 0.2% on December 2, 2024." }, { "id": 30833, "title": "Will the closing price of CAC 40 be less than or equal to 7,400 and greater than or equal to 7,200 on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-closing-price-of-cac-40-be-less-than-or-equal-to-7400-and-greater-than-or-equal-to-7200-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.315240Z", "published_at": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.859446Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30584, "title": "Will the closing price of CAC 40 be less than or equal to 7,400 and greater than or equal to 7,200 on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.315240Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:49:02.786752Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The CAC 40 is a benchmark French stock market index, representing a capitalisation-weighted measure of the 40 most significant stocks among the 100 largest market caps on the Euronext Paris. [Politico reports](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/) that markets have been unsettled by the prospect of the collapse of the French PM, with the CAC 40, falling by 0.2% on December 2, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the close price of the CAC 40 for December 31, 2024 according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFCHI/history/) is less than or equal to 7,400 and greater than or equal to 7,200.", "fine_print": "- If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, alternative credible sources may be used.\r\n- Euronext Paris [is expected](https://www.tradinghours.com/markets/euronext-paris) to open on December 31, 2024. 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At the time of this question, Tesla has experienced a post-election rally as its CEO, Elon Musk, is reported to be working in an advisory role for President-Elect Donald Trump." }, { "id": 30828, "title": "Will Joe Biden sign 4 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-joe-biden-sign-4-or-more-executive-orders-after-election-day-and-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.035778Z", "published_at": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.695042Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-29T01:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30579, "title": "Will Joe Biden sign 4 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.035778Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-29T01:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-29T01:10:06.821106Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): \r\n\r\n>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)\r\n\r\nIn his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).\r\n\r\nSince becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:\r\n\r\n| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |\r\n| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |\r\n| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |\r\n| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |\r\n| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |\r\n| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |\r\n| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |\r\n| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |\r\n| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |\r\n| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |\r\n| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |\r\n\r\n| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |\r\n| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |\r\n| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |\r\n| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |\r\n| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |\r\n| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |\r\n| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |\r\n| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |\r\n| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |\r\n| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the number of executive orders signed by President Joe Biden after November 5, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, is 4 or more according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) and the White House's [Presidential Actions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/) portal.", "fine_print": "Only official [executive orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) count. Other actions such as memoranda, notices and proclamations do not.\r\n\r\nExecutive orders are counted according to the date they are signed; date published is immaterial.", "post_id": 30828, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733578832.475233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5583333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733578832.475233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5583333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4432615340655844 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3913665229302006, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1323885192756138, 0.09207380390900106, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0429346230799967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6322543318062117, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 1.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.5394413749001371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6515894302261355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -28.219258285370053, "peer_score": 12.305071789501586, "coverage": 0.998362599004198, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.998362599004198, "spot_peer_score": 20.418475267539776, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344504996, "baseline_archived_score": -28.219258285370053, "peer_archived_score": 12.305071789501586, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.418475267539776, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344504996 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): \r\n\r\n>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)\r\n\r\nIn his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).\r\n\r\nSince becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:\r\n\r\n| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |\r\n| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |\r\n| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |\r\n| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |\r\n| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |\r\n| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |\r\n| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |\r\n| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |\r\n| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |\r\n| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |\r\n| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |\r\n\r\n| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |\r\n| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |\r\n| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |\r\n| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |\r\n| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |\r\n| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |\r\n| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |\r\n| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |\r\n| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |\r\n| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |" }, { "id": 30827, "title": "Will Joe Biden sign 3 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-joe-biden-sign-3-or-more-executive-orders-after-election-day-and-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.015572Z", "published_at": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.061493Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T23:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30578, "title": "Will Joe Biden sign 3 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.015572Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T23:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-29T01:12:58.801124Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): \r\n\r\n>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)\r\n\r\nIn his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).\r\n\r\nSince becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:\r\n\r\n| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |\r\n| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |\r\n| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |\r\n| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |\r\n| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |\r\n| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |\r\n| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |\r\n| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |\r\n| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |\r\n| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |\r\n| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |\r\n\r\n| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |\r\n| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |\r\n| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |\r\n| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |\r\n| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |\r\n| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |\r\n| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |\r\n| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |\r\n| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |\r\n| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the number of executive orders signed by President Joe Biden after November 5, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, is 3 or more according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) and the White House's [Presidential Actions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/) portal.", "fine_print": "Only official [executive orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) count. Other actions such as memoranda, notices and proclamations do not.\r\n\r\nExecutive orders are counted according to the date they are signed; date published is immaterial.", "post_id": 30827, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733578833.232063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.386 ], "centers": [ 0.608 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.725 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733578833.232063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.386 ], "centers": [ 0.608 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.725 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.392, 0.608 ], "means": [ 0.5361085374594314 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38653819551324636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.6803385023255489, 0.22485043367203914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5477580557959694, 0.0, 0.41143743012643624, 0.7511534702699268, 0.19330086451826228, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9230511556840606, 0.7070416338590172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0780588031388676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -23.389828243629058, "peer_score": -1.387395225134672, "coverage": 0.9982008070498706, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9982008070498706, "spot_peer_score": 31.04287295347798, "spot_baseline_score": 28.21432287814984, "baseline_archived_score": -23.389828243629058, "peer_archived_score": -1.387395225134672, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.04287295347798, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.21432287814984 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): \r\n\r\n>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)\r\n\r\nIn his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).\r\n\r\nSince becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:\r\n\r\n| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |\r\n| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |\r\n| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |\r\n| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |\r\n| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |\r\n| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |\r\n| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |\r\n| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |\r\n| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |\r\n| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |\r\n| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |\r\n\r\n| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |\r\n| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |\r\n| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |\r\n| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |\r\n| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |\r\n| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |\r\n| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |\r\n| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |\r\n| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |\r\n| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |" }, { "id": 30826, "title": "Will Joe Biden sign 2 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-joe-biden-sign-2-or-more-executive-orders-after-election-day-and-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:14.995202Z", "published_at": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.200205Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T23:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30577, "title": "Will Joe Biden sign 2 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:14.995202Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T23:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-29T01:10:52.764523Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): \r\n\r\n>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)\r\n\r\nIn his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).\r\n\r\nSince becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:\r\n\r\n| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |\r\n| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |\r\n| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |\r\n| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |\r\n| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |\r\n| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |\r\n| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |\r\n| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |\r\n| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |\r\n| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |\r\n| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |\r\n\r\n| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |\r\n| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |\r\n| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |\r\n| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |\r\n| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |\r\n| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |\r\n| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |\r\n| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |\r\n| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |\r\n| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the number of executive orders signed by President Joe Biden after November 5, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, is 2 or more according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) and the White House's [Presidential Actions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/) portal.", "fine_print": "Only official [executive orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) count. Other actions such as memoranda, notices and proclamations do not.\r\n\r\nExecutive orders are counted according to the date they are signed; date published is immaterial.", "post_id": 30826, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733578833.870642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.6538808994303867 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.751 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733578833.870642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.6538808994303867 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.751 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.34611910056961326, 0.6538808994303867 ], "means": [ 0.6153957367981611 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0386810676967242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.452680876250656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46546395179077515, 0.0, 0.4137294612403971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7537988096609446, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 42.965598608148454, "peer_score": 17.227520169074104, "coverage": 0.9980048790380912, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9980048790380912, "spot_peer_score": 14.257500777257034, "spot_baseline_score": 38.70997863272357, "baseline_archived_score": 42.965598608148454, "peer_archived_score": 17.227520169074104, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.257500777257034, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 38.70997863272357 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): \r\n\r\n>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)\r\n\r\nIn his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).\r\n\r\nSince becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:\r\n\r\n| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |\r\n| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |\r\n| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |\r\n| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |\r\n| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |\r\n| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |\r\n| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |\r\n| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |\r\n| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |\r\n| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |\r\n| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |\r\n\r\n| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |\r\n| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |\r\n| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |\r\n| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |\r\n| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |\r\n| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |\r\n| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |\r\n| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |\r\n| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |\r\n| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |" } ] }
