Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1460
{ "count": 5915, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1480", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1440", "results": [ { "id": 30827, "title": "Will Joe Biden sign 3 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-joe-biden-sign-3-or-more-executive-orders-after-election-day-and-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.015572Z", "published_at": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.061493Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T23:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30578, "title": "Will Joe Biden sign 3 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:15.015572Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T23:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-29T01:12:58.801124Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): \r\n\r\n>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)\r\n\r\nIn his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).\r\n\r\nSince becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:\r\n\r\n| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |\r\n| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |\r\n| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |\r\n| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |\r\n| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |\r\n| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |\r\n| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |\r\n| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |\r\n| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |\r\n| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |\r\n| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |\r\n\r\n| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |\r\n| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |\r\n| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |\r\n| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |\r\n| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |\r\n| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |\r\n| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |\r\n| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |\r\n| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |\r\n| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the number of executive orders signed by President Joe Biden after November 5, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, is 3 or more according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) and the White House's [Presidential Actions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/) portal.", "fine_print": "Only official [executive orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) count. Other actions such as memoranda, notices and proclamations do not.\r\n\r\nExecutive orders are counted according to the date they are signed; date published is immaterial.", "post_id": 30827, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733578833.232063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.386 ], "centers": [ 0.608 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.725 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733578833.232063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.386 ], "centers": [ 0.608 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.725 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.392, 0.608 ], "means": [ 0.5361085374594314 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38653819551324636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.6803385023255489, 0.22485043367203914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5477580557959694, 0.0, 0.41143743012643624, 0.7511534702699268, 0.19330086451826228, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9230511556840606, 0.7070416338590172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0780588031388676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -23.389828243629058, "peer_score": -1.387395225134672, "coverage": 0.9982008070498706, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9982008070498706, "spot_peer_score": 31.04287295347798, "spot_baseline_score": 28.21432287814984, "baseline_archived_score": -23.389828243629058, "peer_archived_score": -1.387395225134672, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.04287295347798, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.21432287814984 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): \r\n\r\n>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)\r\n\r\nIn his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).\r\n\r\nSince becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:\r\n\r\n| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |\r\n| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |\r\n| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |\r\n| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |\r\n| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |\r\n| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |\r\n| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |\r\n| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |\r\n| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |\r\n| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |\r\n| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |\r\n\r\n| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |\r\n| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |\r\n| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |\r\n| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |\r\n| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |\r\n| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |\r\n| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |\r\n| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |\r\n| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |\r\n| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |" }, { "id": 30826, "title": "Will Joe Biden sign 2 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-joe-biden-sign-2-or-more-executive-orders-after-election-day-and-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:14.995202Z", "published_at": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.200205Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T23:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30577, "title": "Will Joe Biden sign 2 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:14.995202Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T23:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-29T01:10:52.764523Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): \r\n\r\n>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)\r\n\r\nIn his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).\r\n\r\nSince becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:\r\n\r\n| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |\r\n| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |\r\n| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |\r\n| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |\r\n| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |\r\n| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |\r\n| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |\r\n| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |\r\n| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |\r\n| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |\r\n| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |\r\n\r\n| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |\r\n| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |\r\n| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |\r\n| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |\r\n| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |\r\n| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |\r\n| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |\r\n| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |\r\n| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |\r\n| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the number of executive orders signed by President Joe Biden after November 5, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, is 2 or more according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) and the White House's [Presidential Actions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/) portal.", "fine_print": "Only official [executive orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) count. Other actions such as memoranda, notices and proclamations do not.\r\n\r\nExecutive orders are counted according to the date they are signed; date published is immaterial.", "post_id": 30826, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733578833.870642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.6538808994303867 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.751 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733578833.870642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.6538808994303867 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.751 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.34611910056961326, 0.6538808994303867 ], "means": [ 0.6153957367981611 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0386810676967242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.452680876250656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46546395179077515, 0.0, 0.4137294612403971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7537988096609446, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 42.965598608148454, "peer_score": 17.227520169074104, "coverage": 0.9980048790380912, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9980048790380912, "spot_peer_score": 14.257500777257034, "spot_baseline_score": 38.70997863272357, "baseline_archived_score": 42.965598608148454, "peer_archived_score": 17.227520169074104, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.257500777257034, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 38.70997863272357 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): \r\n\r\n>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation)\r\n\r\nIn his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and).\r\n\r\nSince becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month:\r\n\r\n| Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 |\r\n| February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 |\r\n| March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 |\r\n| April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 |\r\n| June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 |\r\n| July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 |\r\n| August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 |\r\n| September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 |\r\n| October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 |\r\n| November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 |\r\n| December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 |\r\n\r\n| Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 |\r\n|-------------------|------|------------------|------|\r\n| January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 |\r\n| February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 |\r\n| May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 |\r\n| June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 |\r\n| July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 |\r\n| August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 |\r\n| September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 |\r\n| October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 |\r\n| November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 |\r\n| December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |" }, { "id": 30825, "title": "Will New Delhi experience a \"Hazardous\" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-new-delhi-experience-a-hazardous-air-quality-index-for-at-least-one-third-of-the-last-two-weeks-of-december-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:14.972059Z", "published_at": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.606563Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30576, "title": "Will New Delhi experience a \"Hazardous\" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-06T14:09:14.972059Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T00:25:05.118234Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Airnow](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/):\n\n>The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is EPA's tool for communicating about outdoor air quality and health. The AQI includes six color-coded categories, each corresponding to a range of index values. The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n>EPA establishes an AQI for five major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act. Each of these pollutants has a national air quality standard set by EPA to protect public health:\n\n> - ground-level ozone\n> - particle pollution (also known as particulate matter, including PM2.5 and PM10)\n> - carbon monoxide\n> - sulfur dioxide\n> - nitrogen dioxide\n\nOn November 21, 2024, CNN [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/20/india/delhi-pollution-clinic-smog-climate-intl-hnk/index.html) that New Delhi had the most hazardous air for human health in the world, leading the Delhi Chief Minister to declare a \"medical emergency\" as authorities closed schools and urged people to stay home. On November 20, 2024 the reading for PM2.5, which has been linked to asthma, heart and lung disease, cancer, and cognitive impairment in children, was more than 77 times higher than safe levels set by the WHO.\n\nAt the time of this question, in 2024 year to date 6% of hours have had an AQI classified as Hazardous, 12% of hours have been Very Unhealthy, and 33% Unhealthy. To access the data for 2024 and previous years from 2015 through the present day, please go [here](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) and click on the Historical tab.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 1/3 of the hourly values reported by [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) for the dates December 16, 2024 to December 29, 2024 inclusive are categorized as having a \"Hazardous\" air quality index (AQI). If less than 1/3 of the hourly values are categorized as \"Hazardous\" air quality, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "- The dates and times for this question will be the dates and times reported by AirNow. No adjustments based on timezones will be made.\n- If AirNow data are not available before January 7, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n- Data can be accessed under the \"Historical\" tab at the resolution source.", "post_id": 30825, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733578834.560377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733578834.560377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.4424945328426684 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.09550609340386881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18588050908518827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 1.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1549952882065746, 0.0, 1.025686948593843, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.827794519035044, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -41.44900968375363, "peer_score": 5.954119113925661, "coverage": 0.9977896430674527, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9977896430674527, "spot_peer_score": -1.1151743877956735, "spot_baseline_score": -43.440282414577496, "baseline_archived_score": -41.44900968375363, "peer_archived_score": 5.954119113925661, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.1151743877956735, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -43.440282414577496 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Airnow](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/):\n\n>The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is EPA's tool for communicating about outdoor air quality and health. The AQI includes six color-coded categories, each corresponding to a range of index values. The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n>EPA establishes an AQI for five major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act. Each of these pollutants has a national air quality standard set by EPA to protect public health:\n\n> - ground-level ozone\n> - particle pollution (also known as particulate matter, including PM2.5 and PM10)\n> - carbon monoxide\n> - sulfur dioxide\n> - nitrogen dioxide\n\nOn November 21, 2024, CNN [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/20/india/delhi-pollution-clinic-smog-climate-intl-hnk/index.html) that New Delhi had the most hazardous air for human health in the world, leading the Delhi Chief Minister to declare a \"medical emergency\" as authorities closed schools and urged people to stay home. On November 20, 2024 the reading for PM2.5, which has been linked to asthma, heart and lung disease, cancer, and cognitive impairment in children, was more than 77 times higher than safe levels set by the WHO.\n\nAt the time of this question, in 2024 year to date 6% of hours have had an AQI classified as Hazardous, 12% of hours have been Very Unhealthy, and 33% Unhealthy. To access the data for 2024 and previous years from 2015 through the present day, please go [here](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) and click on the Historical tab." }, { "id": 30809, "title": "Will Ontario Premier Doug Ford call an early provincial election for 2025?", "short_title": "Early Ontario Election in 2025?", "url_title": "Early Ontario Election in 2025?", "slug": "early-ontario-election-in-2025", "author_id": 233386, "author_username": "Napat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-06T04:59:21.395343Z", "published_at": "2024-12-09T17:46:58.447047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.142943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-09T17:46:58.447045Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-28T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T17:46:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30563, "title": "Will Ontario Premier Doug Ford call an early provincial election for 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-06T04:59:21.395692Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T17:46:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T17:46:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T17:46:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-28T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-18T00:46:40.999451Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-28T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Premier Doug Ford from the Canadian Province of Ontario has ruled out the possibility of an election in 2024 but has not definitively ruled out calling an early election in 2025. While the province’s next fixed election date is scheduled for June 2026, Ford has stated that preparations for potential elections are underway, including setting a December 2024 deadline for his party's members of provincial parliament to decide whether they will run again. Ford emphasized the importance of readiness and has encouraged year-round door-knocking efforts by Progressive Conservative caucus members.\n\nThe political climate in Ontario has been charged with speculation about an early election. Opposition parties have ramped up campaign preparations. The Ontario New Democrats raised $1.1 million over the summer of 2024, citing strong grassroots support. The Ontario Liberals, under new leader Bonnie Crombie, have raised nearly $3 million since December 2023 and have started organizing campaign staff and volunteers. Both parties have linked Ford's potential motivation for an early election to controversies such as the RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt land swap, which initially removed protected land for development but was reversed after public backlash.\n\nIn response to election speculation, Ford has shifted focus to key policy issues, including job creation, healthcare, education, and infrastructure projects. However, opposition parties argue that Ford may use an early election to circumvent growing criticism and investigations. \n\nThis political backdrop raises questions about whether Doug Ford will leverage his majority government status to call an election in 2025.\n\nSource: [The Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/ford-rules-out-ontario-election-in-2024-but-could-call-an-early-election-in-2025/article_12533cae-3492-55f5-90ee-fb0cad937426.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ontario provincial elections are called and voting is scheduled to take place before January 1, 2026. If no elections are called in 2025, or if elections are called in 2025 but voting is scheduled for 2026, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the first issued writ of election. A potential postponement or change in the election date will not affect the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 30809, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735096140.136966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735096140.136966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.6846308677613638 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 8.253928013764993, "peer_score": 1.5680730935407823, "coverage": 0.12481282186555212, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9825092367414279, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 65.99245584023782, "baseline_archived_score": 8.253928013764993, "peer_archived_score": 1.5680730935407823, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 65.99245584023782 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Premier Doug Ford from the Canadian Province of Ontario has ruled out the possibility of an election in 2024 but has not definitively ruled out calling an early election in 2025. While the province’s next fixed election date is scheduled for June 2026, Ford has stated that preparations for potential elections are underway, including setting a December 2024 deadline for his party's members of provincial parliament to decide whether they will run again. Ford emphasized the importance of readiness and has encouraged year-round door-knocking efforts by Progressive Conservative caucus members.\n\nThe political climate in Ontario has been charged with speculation about an early election. Opposition parties have ramped up campaign preparations. The Ontario New Democrats raised $1.1 million over the summer of 2024, citing strong grassroots support. The Ontario Liberals, under new leader Bonnie Crombie, have raised nearly $3 million since December 2023 and have started organizing campaign staff and volunteers. Both parties have linked Ford's potential motivation for an early election to controversies such as the RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt land swap, which initially removed protected land for development but was reversed after public backlash.\n\nIn response to election speculation, Ford has shifted focus to key policy issues, including job creation, healthcare, education, and infrastructure projects. However, opposition parties argue that Ford may use an early election to circumvent growing criticism and investigations. \n\nThis political backdrop raises questions about whether Doug Ford will leverage his majority government status to call an election in 2025.\n\nSource: [The Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/ford-rules-out-ontario-election-in-2024-but-could-call-an-early-election-in-2025/article_12533cae-3492-55f5-90ee-fb0cad937426.html)" }, { "id": 30808, "title": "Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?", "short_title": "COVID-19, RSV, & flu ED visits below 2.7% by March 16, 2025?", "url_title": "COVID-19, RSV, & flu ED visits below 2.7% by March 16, 2025?", "slug": "covid-19-rsv-flu-ed-visits-below-27-by-march-16-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-05T23:48:03.199115Z", "published_at": "2025-02-10T13:53:13.695742Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.164255Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-10T13:53:13.695740Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-10T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-10T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-23T03:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 518, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T00:51:15.310393Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T00:51:15.310393Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30562, "title": "Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-05T23:48:03.199480Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-13T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-23T03:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-23T03:02:04.370194Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-10T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-10T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe fall and winter of 2022-2023 in the US had overlapping epidemics of influenza, RSV and COVID-19, a phenomenon knows as a [tripledemic](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/2/23-0768_article). This [overwhelmed](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642\\(22\\)00372-8/abstract) hospitals at the time, especially pediatric units. Respiratory viruses [affect the young](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/risk-factors/young-children.html) and [affect the old](https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/behind-the-science-magazine/tripledemic-flu-covid-rsv-older-patients-infectious-disease/). They affect the [cities](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8221622/) and affect the [countryside](https://www.idsociety.org/covid-19-real-time-learning-network/COVID-Health-Equity-Resources/covid-19-and-the-unique-challenges-faced-by-rural-communities/#/+/0/publishedDate_na_dt/desc/). As a result of hospitals straining under multiple similar respiratory viruses happening at once, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) [National Syndromic Surveillance Program](https://www.cdc.gov/nssp/index.html) (NSSP) has transitioned from focusing almost exclusively on the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://www.cdc.gov/nssp/php/partnerships/nssp-support-during-after-covid-19-pandemic.html) to the [co-occurrence](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10704638/) of COVID along with flu and RSV.\n\nAccording to the CDC in its [data notes](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/data/activity-levels.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_7-data-notes):\n\n> The acute respiratory illness (ARI) metric categorizes the percentage of emergency department (ED) visits into five activity levels (Minimal, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High), helping people understand the extent of respiratory illness activity in an area. For a list of diagnostic codes for the ARI metric visit: Acute Respiratory Illness Technical Brief.\n\nCDC describes the methodology as follows:\n\n> ARI captures a broad range of diagnoses from emergency department visits for respiratory illnesses, from the common cold to severe infections like influenza, RSV and COVID-19. The ARI baseline metric classifies the percentage of ED visits due to ARI, influenza, RSV, and COVID-19 into levels (categories): Minimal, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High based on regional, state, and local trends.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on any date after February 10, 2025, and before March 16, 2025 the combined weekly rate of emergency department visits for COVID-19, RSV and influenza [as reported by](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/data/activity-levels.html#:~:text=territory.%20Read%20more%20%C2%BB-,Emergency%20Department%20Visits%20for%20Viral%20Respiratory%20Illness,-Weekly%20percent%20of) the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) falls below 2.7%.", "fine_print": "Specifically, this question resolves according to the Data Table at the *Emergency Department Visits for Viral Respiratory Illness* section of the [resolution source](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/data/activity-levels.html#:~:text=territory.%20Read%20more%20%C2%BB-,Emergency%20Department%20Visits%20for%20Viral%20Respiratory%20Illness,-Weekly%20percent%20of), using the sum of the numbers reported for COVID-19, Influenza and RSV each week.\n\nIn the event the resolution source becomes unavailable, Admins may use alternative credible sources, such as [this CDC dataset](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/NSSP-Emergency-Department-Visit-Trajectories-by-St/rdmq-nq56/about_data).\n\nThe CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. In the event the week or reporting convention changes, the question will still resolve as described for any date after February 10, 2025, and before March 16, 2025.\n\nThe question resolves when data for all weeks occurring within the described range has become available and is accessed by Metaculus. In the event the required data is not available before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, the question will be **annulled**.\n\nAfter this question has resolved, no further revisions to the numbers reported at the data source will be considered.", "post_id": 30808, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741578396.315862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 515, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.037 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741578396.315862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 515, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.037 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.963, 0.037 ], "means": [ 0.10874896110419564 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.928120549106138, 3.817376656988389, 5.672796826948085, 4.996352343965822, 2.564830564810446, 1.9637069338595552, 2.6662562987448735, 2.4404027651360045, 1.2343655222367795, 0.2653783208050751, 1.1286542328125475, 0.5964437238202259, 0.7277742480429735, 0.0001305945575333068, 0.22611243567041153, 0.6966189630362755, 2.383794311989027e-06, 0.6265820559080314, 0.0007211386278119984, 0.00014007445227668872, 0.5837059975830258, 4.634693134062961e-06, 0.21780206380454245, 0.0, 1.9106711275713542e-05, 0.967218069936078, 0.45834174522424687, 1.5948729201320937e-06, 3.842319965949572e-05, 0.0, 0.18386746856761552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021868370015489236, 0.0, 5.995951434025481e-07, 0.0002941796862306723, 2.8299451249830507e-07, 2.1661544302770574e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20702838823713743, 1.1422757313824119e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008188349649879599, 2.4788605245572866e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.658732608134234e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9568533607431434, 0.19281072785133166, 0.0033734532629802, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2615393747911152e-06, 0.0002837473815931373, 0.0017406845954882715, 0.8566240854890577, 1.323313496064195e-07, 1.964829969754991e-09, 6.9538190951241875e-06, 0.0, 3.2352200420935137e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8154233604630738e-06, 0.716819587370983, 1.6146918667825881e-09, 1.664574368940305e-05, 0.0, 6.698595223236211e-07, 0.001539439799039042, 0.0, 0.0, 3.650388757993226e-08, 5.8099458910196094e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.749413814593555e-08, 0.15183522546397518, 0.0, 0.0, 1.528801683506254e-07, 6.167626186665904e-05, 0.0, 3.930827203578017e-06, 0.0, 0.0004557480609689797, 7.589832192821931e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8054562670256002 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.70463834507576, "peer_score": 31.75961708195642, "coverage": 0.99991809909803, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99991809909803, "spot_peer_score": 42.0009572906201, "spot_baseline_score": 60.40713236688608, "baseline_archived_score": 85.70463834507576, "peer_archived_score": 31.75961708195642, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.0009572906201, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.40713236688608 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1786, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe fall and winter of 2022-2023 in the US had overlapping epidemics of influenza, RSV and COVID-19, a phenomenon knows as a [tripledemic](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/2/23-0768_article). This [overwhelmed](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642\\(22\\)00372-8/abstract) hospitals at the time, especially pediatric units. Respiratory viruses [affect the young](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/risk-factors/young-children.html) and [affect the old](https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/behind-the-science-magazine/tripledemic-flu-covid-rsv-older-patients-infectious-disease/). They affect the [cities](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8221622/) and affect the [countryside](https://www.idsociety.org/covid-19-real-time-learning-network/COVID-Health-Equity-Resources/covid-19-and-the-unique-challenges-faced-by-rural-communities/#/+/0/publishedDate_na_dt/desc/). As a result of hospitals straining under multiple similar respiratory viruses happening at once, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) [National Syndromic Surveillance Program](https://www.cdc.gov/nssp/index.html) (NSSP) has transitioned from focusing almost exclusively on the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://www.cdc.gov/nssp/php/partnerships/nssp-support-during-after-covid-19-pandemic.html) to the [co-occurrence](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10704638/) of COVID along with flu and RSV.\n\nAccording to the CDC in its [data notes](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/data/activity-levels.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_7-data-notes):\n\n> The acute respiratory illness (ARI) metric categorizes the percentage of emergency department (ED) visits into five activity levels (Minimal, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High), helping people understand the extent of respiratory illness activity in an area. For a list of diagnostic codes for the ARI metric visit: Acute Respiratory Illness Technical Brief.\n\nCDC describes the methodology as follows:\n\n> ARI captures a broad range of diagnoses from emergency department visits for respiratory illnesses, from the common cold to severe infections like influenza, RSV and COVID-19. The ARI baseline metric classifies the percentage of ED visits due to ARI, influenza, RSV, and COVID-19 into levels (categories): Minimal, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High based on regional, state, and local trends." }, { "id": 30805, "title": "\"Eu Ainda Estou Aqui\" será indicado ao Oscar 2025?", "short_title": "\"Eu Ainda Estou Aqui\" concorrerá ao Oscar 2025?", "url_title": "\"Eu Ainda Estou Aqui\" concorrerá ao Oscar 2025?", "slug": "eu-ainda-estou-aqui-concorrera-ao-oscar-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-05T21:08:55.403569Z", "published_at": "2025-01-14T23:12:30.304035Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.452050Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-14T23:12:30.304032Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-17T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-17T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-18T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-14T23:12:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30559, "title": "\"Eu Ainda Estou Aqui\" será indicado ao Oscar 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-05T21:08:55.403958Z", "open_time": "2025-01-14T23:12:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-14T23:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-14T23:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-18T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-23T14:47:44.151653Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-17T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-17T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ainda Estou Aqui é uma adaptação cinematográfica do livro autobiográfico de Marcelo Rubens Paiva, que narra a emocionante trajetória de sua mãe, Eunice Paiva, durante a ditadura militar no Brasil.\n\nAmbientada em 1970, a história retrata como a vida de uma mulher comum, casada com um importante político, muda drasticamente após o desaparecimento de seu marido, capturado pelo regime militar. Forçada a abandonar sua rotina de dona de casa, Eunice (Fernanda Torres/Fernanda Montenegro) se transforma em uma ativista dos direitos humanos, lutando pela verdade sobre o paradeiro de seu marido e enfrentando as consequências brutais da repressão. [Fonte](https://www.adorocinema.com/filmes/filme-265940/)\n\nO filme tem sindo aclamado pela crítica nacional e internacional e conta com diversoas premiações [Prêmios](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/entretenimento/ainda-estou-aqui-todos-os-premios-que-o-filme-ja-ganhou-ate-agora/)", "resolution_criteria": "Considera-se \"SIM\":\n\nA publicação oficial da lista dos indicados ao prêmio Oscar [The Academy Awards](https://www.oscars.org/oscars), ou divulgado por qualquer mídia online, nacional ou internacional.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30805, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737072051.782189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737072051.782189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 3.6914139156516765, "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.1403395842437513, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.1403395842437513, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 3.6914139156516765, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ainda Estou Aqui é uma adaptação cinematográfica do livro autobiográfico de Marcelo Rubens Paiva, que narra a emocionante trajetória de sua mãe, Eunice Paiva, durante a ditadura militar no Brasil.\n\nAmbientada em 1970, a história retrata como a vida de uma mulher comum, casada com um importante político, muda drasticamente após o desaparecimento de seu marido, capturado pelo regime militar. Forçada a abandonar sua rotina de dona de casa, Eunice (Fernanda Torres/Fernanda Montenegro) se transforma em uma ativista dos direitos humanos, lutando pela verdade sobre o paradeiro de seu marido e enfrentando as consequências brutais da repressão. [Fonte](https://www.adorocinema.com/filmes/filme-265940/)\n\nO filme tem sindo aclamado pela crítica nacional e internacional e conta com diversoas premiações [Prêmios](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/entretenimento/ainda-estou-aqui-todos-os-premios-que-o-filme-ja-ganhou-ate-agora/)" }, { "id": 30804, "title": "Fernanda Torres será nomeada na categoria de Melhor Atriz do Oscar de 2025?", "short_title": "Fernanda Torres concorrerá ao Oscar 2025?", "url_title": "Fernanda Torres concorrerá ao Oscar 2025?", "slug": "fernanda-torres-concorrera-ao-oscar-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-05T20:57:47.424016Z", "published_at": "2025-01-14T23:13:26.913501Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.647150Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-14T23:13:26.913499Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-17T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-17T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-18T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-14T23:13:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30558, "title": "Fernanda Torres será nomeada na categoria de Melhor Atriz do Oscar de 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-05T20:57:47.424773Z", "open_time": "2025-01-14T23:13:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-14T23:13:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-14T23:13:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-18T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-23T14:47:14.932861Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-17T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-17T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Fernanda Torres (59) é uma atriz brasileira, filha de dois grandes nomes da dramaturgia brasileira, Fernanda Montenegro e Fernando Torres.\n\nA sua atuação no filme \"Eu Ainda Estou Aqui\" (2024), do diretor Walter Salles, tem sido aclamado pelo público nacional e internacional, vencendo o prêmio Critics Choice Awards, na categoria de Melhor Atriz Estrangeira [Reportagem](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/entretenimento/fernanda-torres-ganha-premio-internacional-e-agradece-a-distancia-veja-discurso/)\n\nHá 25 anos, a sua mãe, Fernanda Montenegro, foi indicada ao Oscar pelo filme de sucesso do mesmo diretor, Walter Salles 'Central do Brasil'.\n\nNa ocasião, Fernanda Montenegro perdeu o prêmio para Gwyneth Paltrow, na atuação de Shakespeare Apaixonado [Reportagem](https://www.band.uol.com.br/entretenimento/afinal-por-que-fernanda-montenegro-nao-ganhou-o-oscar-por-central-do-brasil-16639412).", "resolution_criteria": "Considera-se \"SIM\":\n\nOficial indicação pelo website oficial da [The Academy Awards](https://www.oscars.org/oscars), ou outra divulgação de mídia online brasileira ou internacional.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30804, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 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Fernando Torres.\n\nA sua atuação no filme \"Eu Ainda Estou Aqui\" (2024), do diretor Walter Salles, tem sido aclamado pelo público nacional e internacional, vencendo o prêmio Critics Choice Awards, na categoria de Melhor Atriz Estrangeira [Reportagem](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/entretenimento/fernanda-torres-ganha-premio-internacional-e-agradece-a-distancia-veja-discurso/)\n\nHá 25 anos, a sua mãe, Fernanda Montenegro, foi indicada ao Oscar pelo filme de sucesso do mesmo diretor, Walter Salles 'Central do Brasil'.\n\nNa ocasião, Fernanda Montenegro perdeu o prêmio para Gwyneth Paltrow, na atuação de Shakespeare Apaixonado [Reportagem](https://www.band.uol.com.br/entretenimento/afinal-por-que-fernanda-montenegro-nao-ganhou-o-oscar-por-central-do-brasil-16639412)." }, { "id": 30803, "title": "Will Javier Milei be reelected as President of Argentina before January 1, 2028?", "short_title": "Will Milei be reelected before 2028?", "url_title": "Will Milei be reelected before 2028?", "slug": "will-milei-be-reelected-before-2028", "author_id": 125326, "author_username": "jmcdon10", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-05T19:23:18.976116Z", "published_at": "2024-12-16T10:09:19.118221Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T01:21:10.871704Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-16T10:09:19.118218Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-17T10:08:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30557, "title": "Will Javier Milei be reelected as President of Argentina before January 1, 2028?", "created_at": "2024-12-05T19:23:18.976722Z", "open_time": "2024-12-17T10:08:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-21T10:08:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-21T10:08:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei), a libertarian economist and politician, [was elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election) President of Argentina in 2023 in a surprise upset, after running on a platform emphasizing economic liberalization, shrinking the size of government, and combatting inflation. His tenure has been marked by significant reforms and controversies, with his policies drawing both [strong support and significant criticism](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/world/americas/argentina-president-milei-inflation-economy.html).\n\nMilei will be eligible for reelection when his four-year term ends and new elections are held in late 2027. The last President to be reelected was Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in 2011.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Javier Milei is elected President of Argentina for a second time before January 1, 2028. The result has to be certified by the Argentine authorities. If elections happen, but the result has not been certified before January 1, 2028, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "fine_print": "The Argentine election process includes run-offs in the case where the first round does not produce a winner with a majority. To resolve as **Yes**, Milei will have to win the run-off before January 1, 2028, if one is conducted.", "post_id": 30803, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757899260.506605, "end_time": 1758165162.729507, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757899260.506605, "end_time": 1758165162.729507, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.5976260143275387 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4556868813305508, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 1.3881424191539093, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.9021686480907426, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.2294539435535619, 0.20427029069544175, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13548800447350534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5835849603599523 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei), a libertarian economist and politician, [was elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election) President of Argentina in 2023 in a surprise upset, after running on a platform emphasizing economic liberalization, shrinking the size of government, and combatting inflation. His tenure has been marked by significant reforms and controversies, with his policies drawing both [strong support and significant criticism](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/world/americas/argentina-president-milei-inflation-economy.html).\n\nMilei will be eligible for reelection when his four-year term ends and new elections are held in late 2027. The last President to be reelected was Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in 2011." }, { "id": 30783, "title": "Will Xi Jinping continue leading China through January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-xi-jinping-continue-leading-china-through-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-05T14:16:11.969434Z", "published_at": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.470972Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30537, "title": "Will Xi Jinping continue leading China through January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-05T14:16:11.969434Z", "open_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:45:20.052113Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a [92% chance according to a current Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/). There is considerable speculation that Xi will pave the way for a much longer tenure [akin to the tenure of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping](https://www.ft.com/content/71b165a6-052d-4d7d-9006-e2e757f40d98). Having China ruled by a single figure with a potentially unlimited tenure might have considerable ramifications for a variety of topics ranging from the West's China policy to global security concerns.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if either:\n\n * Xi is CCP General Secretary on 1 January, 2025. \n * Xi is paramount leader of China on 1 January, 2025. \n * Xi is de facto leader of China on 1 January, 2025. \n\nThis question will resolve negative if: \n\n * Any other person is leader on 1 January, 2025. \n\nThis question will resolve ambiguous if:\n\n * China ceases to exist as the political entity it is right now", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733493115.57066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.968 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733493115.57066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.968 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9327089380903635 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8606188147841007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 1.0, 1.4572700057914383, 2.2805999036797755, 1.1140826893539562, 0.6933961879697194, 0.41197927042431465, 0.6091619622184999 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.55900338276435, "peer_score": 2.7804545351228125, "coverage": 0.9993636096875977, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9993636096875977, "spot_peer_score": 2.4575114111795724, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 92.55900338276435, "peer_archived_score": 2.7804545351228125, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.4575114111795724, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a [92% chance according to a current Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/). There is considerable speculation that Xi will pave the way for a much longer tenure [akin to the tenure of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping](https://www.ft.com/content/71b165a6-052d-4d7d-9006-e2e757f40d98). Having China ruled by a single figure with a potentially unlimited tenure might have considerable ramifications for a variety of topics ranging from the West's China policy to global security concerns." }, { "id": 30782, "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be President of France on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-emmanuel-macron-be-president-of-france-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-05T14:16:11.710245Z", "published_at": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.854594Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30536, "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be President of France on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-05T14:16:11.710245Z", "open_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:59:53.422560Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[French President Emmanuel Macron says he will NOT resign as crisis engulfs his Government after extremist parties were accused of playing 'Russian roulette' with the country's future](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14154367/french-president-emmanuel-macron-not-resign.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Emmanuel Macron is President of France on December 31, 2024. 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"created_at": "2024-12-05T14:16:11.646526Z", "open_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T15:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-11T15:36:03.657361Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": 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If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**. 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"resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nIn December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down as follows:\r\n\r\n| Month | MoM Inflation |\r\n| -------- | ------------- |\r\n| Dec 2023 | 25.5% |\r\n| Jan 2024 | 20.6% |\r\n| Feb 2024 | 13.2% |\r\n| Mar 2024 | 11.0% |\r\n| Apr 2024 | 8.8% |\r\n| May 2024 | 4.3% |\r\n| Jun 2024 | 4.6% |\r\n| Jul 2024 | 4.0% |\r\n| Aug 2024 | 4.2% |\r\n| Sep 2024 | 3.5% |\r\n| Oct 2024 | 2.7% |\r\n\r\nFor the year 2023, Argentina's inflation rate was 211%, highest in the world, and Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. In November 2024, President Milei had an [approval rating](https://americasquarterly.org/article/javier-milei-has-surprised-almost-everybody/) of 56%.\r\n\r\nHowever, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2024 is at the time of this question, [according to a report in the Buenos Aires Herald](https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/imf-worsens-argentinas-2024-gdp-forecast-to-3-5-drop), projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to be a 140% annual rate, while GDP is projected to shrink by 3.5% for the year. The initial displacements and short-term economic shrinkage seem to be the price paid for taming inflation. According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's chief economist:\r\n\r\n> The estimated 140% inflation rate “is still a high number, but it is also a reflection of a lot of the inflation that has already happened,\" \\[...] And the sequential inflation is coming down quite fast on the back of very strong measures that have been implemented by country authorities,” particularly President Javier Milei’s sweeping fiscal reforms.\r\n\r\n> “For the first time in a long, long time, the government has delivered a balanced budget. The question is whether it can continue doing so in the future,” the economist said, adding that engagement with Congress and having high quality measures on the fiscal side are key and seem to already be in place.\r\n\r\n> Gourinchas also mentioned the importance of tightening monetary policy to end the government. “All of these things are going in the direction of bringing inflation under control, but it has an impact in terms of economic activity,” the IMF official recognized. Less public spending, he said, has led to tighter monetary conditions, and altogether to “a very significant slowdown for 2024 in Argentina.”\r\n\r\nAdditionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\r\n\r\nAccording to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%. For 2025, JP Morgan forecasts an inflation rate of around 35%, the IMF forecasts around 45%, and D'Amico forecasts around 29%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate is less than 3.0% for the month of February 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), whose monthly report can be accessed [here](https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Nivel4-Tema-3-5-31).\r\n\r\nThe number used will be that reported for the month of February 2025, using the \"Variación % mensual, Total nacional\". For example, the resolution value from [the December 2024 report](https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/ipc_01_2517A7124C09.pdf) would have been 2.7 (2,7 in the number format used in the report).", "fine_print": "* If there are other issues with accessing data at the INDEC website, then Metaculus may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to resolve this question, as long as their numbers are consistent with previous numbers.\r\n* Data for February 2025 is [scheduled to be released](https://www.indec.gob.ar/ftp/cuadros/publicaciones/calendario_1sem2025_ingles.pdf) on March 14, 2025. In the event the necessary figure is not published before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30765, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740804884.10336, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 618, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740804884.10336, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 618, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9415320704037443 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0015211374049208936, 0.05112216333309927, 0.06715656378120265, 0.0, 0.0, 1.294973020891689e-07, 0.0, 4.199992874129581e-08, 0.0, 5.393062251332938e-08, 3.097674382693487e-08, 0.0, 0.001718396345387324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8338679953551206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6187040584639206e-09, 0.04883655730520417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004468991563407465, 0.03536010760950501, 0.0, 2.8416638070610618e-08, 0.0, 0.0003541667572513396, 0.0, 5.583628584314016e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3894258731433944, 0.05233723972293949, 0.14274045261588406, 0.0, 4.4742059195421724e-08, 0.033752779678069056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010357457762686116, 2.444274854840575e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.018800217423039e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034547957931991384, 3.695225744255543e-08, 1.4461768812775757e-07, 0.0663613394487339, 0.0005798676884657008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10729022211289403, 3.463295881277202e-08, 0.2734131402336551, 1.5624197520009832e-09, 0.02158387987609243, 0.0005641506164290567, 0.0, 0.014349065583725111, 2.377435541349561e-05, 0.0, 3.6188692735624336e-05, 0.5342550111915083, 0.0001561154650829404, 0.0, 3.1835113898923537e-07, 2.754076715715221e-07, 4.127090431511221e-07, 0.31199956382329896, 1.399053592450282e-09, 0.056003291692307514, 0.06676927475189948, 0.00039753824153186077, 0.4146068644847566, 0.006503997586078546, 0.004881057497521808, 0.6493890046698525, 0.014004935058012686, 0.0132319757407564, 0.07349094368047521, 0.00027844951526061586, 0.512905952957978, 0.0, 0.7713969323961751, 3.0537609081473827, 2.2572380474236504, 2.6390068816212042, 1.993039845964208, 1.7851396712952163, 5.195982472042439, 25.68889776050341 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 90.6329651118066, "peer_score": 28.16604883220745, "coverage": 0.9962697739465524, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9962697739465524, "spot_peer_score": 34.66060976886927, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 90.6329651118066, "peer_archived_score": 28.16604883220745, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.66060976886927, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1498, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nIn December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down as follows:\r\n\r\n| Month | MoM Inflation |\r\n| -------- | ------------- |\r\n| Dec 2023 | 25.5% |\r\n| Jan 2024 | 20.6% |\r\n| Feb 2024 | 13.2% |\r\n| Mar 2024 | 11.0% |\r\n| Apr 2024 | 8.8% |\r\n| May 2024 | 4.3% |\r\n| Jun 2024 | 4.6% |\r\n| Jul 2024 | 4.0% |\r\n| Aug 2024 | 4.2% |\r\n| Sep 2024 | 3.5% |\r\n| Oct 2024 | 2.7% |\r\n\r\nFor the year 2023, Argentina's inflation rate was 211%, highest in the world, and Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. In November 2024, President Milei had an [approval rating](https://americasquarterly.org/article/javier-milei-has-surprised-almost-everybody/) of 56%.\r\n\r\nHowever, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2024 is at the time of this question, [according to a report in the Buenos Aires Herald](https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/imf-worsens-argentinas-2024-gdp-forecast-to-3-5-drop), projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to be a 140% annual rate, while GDP is projected to shrink by 3.5% for the year. The initial displacements and short-term economic shrinkage seem to be the price paid for taming inflation. According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's chief economist:\r\n\r\n> The estimated 140% inflation rate “is still a high number, but it is also a reflection of a lot of the inflation that has already happened,\" \\[...] And the sequential inflation is coming down quite fast on the back of very strong measures that have been implemented by country authorities,” particularly President Javier Milei’s sweeping fiscal reforms.\r\n\r\n> “For the first time in a long, long time, the government has delivered a balanced budget. The question is whether it can continue doing so in the future,” the economist said, adding that engagement with Congress and having high quality measures on the fiscal side are key and seem to already be in place.\r\n\r\n> Gourinchas also mentioned the importance of tightening monetary policy to end the government. “All of these things are going in the direction of bringing inflation under control, but it has an impact in terms of economic activity,” the IMF official recognized. Less public spending, he said, has led to tighter monetary conditions, and altogether to “a very significant slowdown for 2024 in Argentina.”\r\n\r\nAdditionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\r\n\r\nAccording to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%. For 2025, JP Morgan forecasts an inflation rate of around 35%, the IMF forecasts around 45%, and D'Amico forecasts around 29%." }, { "id": 30763, "title": "Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?", "short_title": "Will an H5 PHEIC be declared by the WHO before 2026?", "url_title": "Will an H5 PHEIC be declared by the WHO before 2026?", "slug": "will-an-h5-pheic-be-declared-by-the-who-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T22:25:49.474092Z", "published_at": "2024-12-11T15:04:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T02:44:08.702425Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-11T15:04:24Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-12T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 253, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 129, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:33:38.853251Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:33:38.853251Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30523, "title": "Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T22:25:49.474483Z", "open_time": "2024-12-12T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T17:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T17:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the WHO, the Emergency Committee of the International Health Regulations (IHR) [consists](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) \"of international experts who provide technical advice to the WHO Director-General in the context of a 'public health emergency of international concern' (PHEIC).\" Important factors the Emergency Committee weighs in its deliberation process are:\n\n1. risks to human health\n2. international spread of the outbreak, and\n3. interference with international travel.\n\nThe final determination of a PHEIC is made by the Director-General of the WHO.\n\nIn recent years, the WHO has declared a PHEIC for the [2022-2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak) and [2023-2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_mpox_epidemic) mpox outbreaks, the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the 2018-2020 [ebola outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_Ebola_epidemic), and the 2015-2016 [Zika epidemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic).\n\nWith respect to H5, at the time of this question the WHO [assesses the risk](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON512) as follows:\n\n> Whenever avian influenza viruses are circulating in birds, there is a risk for sporadic infections in mammals and humans due to exposure to infected animals (including livestock), or contaminated environments and thus, further human cases are not unexpected. Influenza A infection has been rarely reported in bovine species and spread among dairy cattle herds in four U.S. States is being assessed. Previously, there have been human infections with other avian influenza subtypes following exposure to infected mammals.\n\n> Since the virus has not acquired mutations that facilitate transmission among humans and based on available information, WHO assesses the public health risk to the general population posed by this virus to be low and for occupationally exposed persons the risk of infection is considered low-to-moderate.\n\n> There are no specific vaccines for preventing influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. Candidate vaccines to prevent H5 infection in humans have been developed for pandemic preparedness purposes. Close analysis of the epidemiological situation, further characterization of the most recent viruses (from human cases and animal) and comprehensive investigations around human cases are critical to assess associated risk and to adjust risk management measures in a timely manner.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n* US Centers for Disease Control [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html)\n* WHO [Risk assessments and summaries of influenza at the human-animal interface](https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza/monthly-risk-assessment-summary)\n* Pan American Health Organization [Epidemiological alerts and updates](https://www.paho.org/en/epidemiological-alerts-and-updates)\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2026, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any H5 virus to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Per the WHO's [Q\\&A documentation](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees):\n\n> A PHEIC is defined in the IHR (2005) as, “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response”. This definition implies a situation that is:\n\n> * serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected;\n> * carries implications for public health beyond the affected State’s national border; and\n> * may require immediate international action.\n\nIf WHO changes this definition in a manner that a panel of Metaculus Admins determines to be substantial, this question may be either clarified or annulled.\n\nFor purposes of this question, any subtype of H5 (e.g., H5N1, H5Nx) is acceptable if encompassed by the PHEIC.\n\nThe intention is for this question to resolve based on any PHEIC declaration by the WHO. Therefore, this question does not have additional requirements beyond the declaration (for example, human-to-human transmission is not required).", "post_id": 30763, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757904238.16482, "end_time": 1758795887.207, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.031 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757904238.16482, "end_time": 1758795887.207, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.031 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04334294202304146 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.662280040542116, 3.6129914701617025, 4.580691153717804, 3.087082403642758, 0.7661158084394444, 1.4019413353898005, 0.07884825413551239, 0.11204513990648578, 0.31809210117958053, 0.01606316316917346, 0.1497458727852884, 0.0017867105110732713, 0.0, 0.0032737217951857513, 0.0, 0.0248495785759523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031318217060535784, 0.0, 0.0008323054346231313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000365894509793429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33919917683413425 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 699, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the WHO, the Emergency Committee of the International Health Regulations (IHR) [consists](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) \"of international experts who provide technical advice to the WHO Director-General in the context of a 'public health emergency of international concern' (PHEIC).\" Important factors the Emergency Committee weighs in its deliberation process are:\n\n1. risks to human health\n2. international spread of the outbreak, and\n3. interference with international travel.\n\nThe final determination of a PHEIC is made by the Director-General of the WHO.\n\nIn recent years, the WHO has declared a PHEIC for the [2022-2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak) and [2023-2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_mpox_epidemic) mpox outbreaks, the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the 2018-2020 [ebola outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_Ebola_epidemic), and the 2015-2016 [Zika epidemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic).\n\nWith respect to H5, at the time of this question the WHO [assesses the risk](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON512) as follows:\n\n> Whenever avian influenza viruses are circulating in birds, there is a risk for sporadic infections in mammals and humans due to exposure to infected animals (including livestock), or contaminated environments and thus, further human cases are not unexpected. Influenza A infection has been rarely reported in bovine species and spread among dairy cattle herds in four U.S. States is being assessed. Previously, there have been human infections with other avian influenza subtypes following exposure to infected mammals.\n\n> Since the virus has not acquired mutations that facilitate transmission among humans and based on available information, WHO assesses the public health risk to the general population posed by this virus to be low and for occupationally exposed persons the risk of infection is considered low-to-moderate.\n\n> There are no specific vaccines for preventing influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. Candidate vaccines to prevent H5 infection in humans have been developed for pandemic preparedness purposes. Close analysis of the epidemiological situation, further characterization of the most recent viruses (from human cases and animal) and comprehensive investigations around human cases are critical to assess associated risk and to adjust risk management measures in a timely manner.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n* US Centers for Disease Control [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html)\n* WHO [Risk assessments and summaries of influenza at the human-animal interface](https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza/monthly-risk-assessment-summary)\n* Pan American Health Organization [Epidemiological alerts and updates](https://www.paho.org/en/epidemiological-alerts-and-updates)\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 30759, "title": "How likely do you think it is that overall, the impact of High Level Machine Intelligence will be extremely negative for humanity in the long run?", "short_title": "High Level Machine Intelligence Negative for Humanity?", "url_title": "High Level Machine Intelligence Negative for Humanity?", "slug": "high-level-machine-intelligence-negative-for-humanity", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T16:17:48.377636Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T16:20:38.813928Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.975487Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-04T16:20:38.813926Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30520, "title": "How likely do you think it is that overall, the impact of High Level Machine Intelligence will be extremely negative for humanity in the long run?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T16:17:48.390447Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*", "resolution_criteria": "By \"extremely negative\" we mean something like human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of human civilization. By \"in the long run\" we mean over hundreds or thousands of years. 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"id": 30755, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?", "short_title": "OpenAI Flags Medium AI Model Autonomy Risk by 2025?", "url_title": "OpenAI Flags Medium AI Model Autonomy Risk by 2025?", "slug": "openai-flags-medium-ai-model-autonomy-risk-by-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T15:58:31.356378Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T16:20:06.548046Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.063037Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-04T16:20:06.548043Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T18:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30516, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T15:58:31.356718Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-01T17:53:38.403220Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T18:46:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n---\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nModel autonomy enables actors to run scaled misuse that can adapt to environmental changes and evade 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December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T15:55:17.130452Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n---\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nPersuasion is focused on risks related to convincing people to change their beliefs (or act on) both static and interactive model-generated content.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to yes if an AI system released by OpenAI has a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion by December 31st 2025.\n\n**Which AI systems count?**\nAny AI system publically reported (not neccessarily releasd) by OpenAI.\n\n[Eli Lifland](https://www.elilifland.com/) is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions. 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null, "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, 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"resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n---\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nCBRN is focused on risks related to model-assisted creation of chemical, biological, 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