Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1480
{ "count": 6320, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1500", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1460", "results": [ { "id": 35201, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will Perplexity announce that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "Perplexity IPO?", "url_title": "Perplexity IPO?", "slug": "perplexity-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:04.004893Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.920385Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34689, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will Perplexity announce that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:04.004893Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T17:32:22.588846Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Observer: [A.I. Unicorns Have Good Reasons Not to Go Public](https://observer.com/2024/10/ai-unicorn-not-going-public/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Perplexity AI, Inc., announces before April 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) The company filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [News](https://www.perplexity.ai/hub) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35201, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740134955.006439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1225 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.234 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740134955.006439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1225 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.234 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18708771399797006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2888215375454948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.35033622771640044, 0.712548633851336, 0.0, 0.0, 1.281408452949476, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3842569464637466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.7043926150625847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.04537808071775, "peer_score": -0.7592756263745724, "coverage": 0.9928123546971214, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9928123546971214, "spot_peer_score": -3.909971234556016, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 73.04537808071775, "peer_archived_score": -0.7592756263745724, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.909971234556016, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Observer: [A.I. Unicorns Have Good Reasons Not to Go Public](https://observer.com/2024/10/ai-unicorn-not-going-public/)" }, { "id": 35200, "title": "Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-trump-administration-impose-new-tariffs-on-the-eu-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.838232Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.143900Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 78, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T18:51:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34688, "title": "Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.838232Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T18:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T18:51:22.182399Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The new US administration under President Donald J. Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\n\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\n\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any new US tariffs targeting the EU take effect and stay in effect for at least seven days before April 7, 2025, according to official [White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/) or EU press releases, or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* Any tariff that was not in effect on February 14, 2025 counts.\n* The whole EU has to be targeted by tariffs. If at least one EU member state is not included, this question will *not* resolve as **Yes**.\n* The tariff rate or tariff scope (i.e. which industries are being targetted) is immaterial to the question resolution. If tariffs are postponed after they took effect or canceled after being in effect (even for a short time), the question will still resolve positively.\n* The tariffs have to be in effect for a total of seven days. If they come into effect, are paused, and then resume, the total number of days will be used to resolve this question.", "post_id": 35200, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740070376.711115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740070376.711115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6744495483288142 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.830015536754299, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8654569723930818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5870740446299216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0664967849497513, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07459302578187124, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 50.69257449649289, "peer_score": -3.160127497504915, "coverage": 0.9928466069698334, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9928466069698334, "spot_peer_score": -3.6969331277289097, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756148, "baseline_archived_score": 50.69257449649289, "peer_archived_score": -3.160127497504915, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.6969331277289097, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756148 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The new US administration under President Donald J. Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\n\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\n\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025." }, { "id": 35199, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will Stripe announce that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "By Apr 1, 2025, Stripe announce planning an IPO?", "url_title": "By Apr 1, 2025, Stripe announce planning an IPO?", "slug": "by-apr-1-2025-stripe-announce-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.803750Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.375998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34687, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will Stripe announce that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.803750Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T17:31:13.551136Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "PaymentsDive: [Stripe shows signs of IPO, despite co-founder comments](https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/stripe-shows-signs-of-ipo-despite-co-founder-comments/727877/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Stripe, Inc., announces before April 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) Stripe filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or [F-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-f-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [News](https://stripe.com/newsroom) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35199, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740019338.261355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.275 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740019338.261355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.2104792651842073 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.1538631363660597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1171847049351027, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5443314306020622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.55623282225176, "peer_score": 12.157041371814968, "coverage": 0.9535445372263591, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9535445372263591, "spot_peer_score": 8.371310429790578, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "baseline_archived_score": 70.55623282225176, "peer_archived_score": 12.157041371814968, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.371310429790578, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "PaymentsDive: [Stripe shows signs of IPO, despite co-founder comments](https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/stripe-shows-signs-of-ipo-despite-co-founder-comments/727877/)" }, { "id": 35198, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will OpenAI announce that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-april-1-2025-will-openai-announce-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.773732Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.058250Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:27:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34686, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will OpenAI announce that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.773732Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T17:30:13.871260Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters: [OpenAI IPO would create the next hot meme stock](https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/openai-ipo-would-create-next-hot-meme-stock-2024-12-16/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI, Inc., announces before April 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) OpenAI filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [News](https://openai.com/news/) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35198, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740019779.410244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740019779.410244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.12158900559103948 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.8416719081664208, 0.0, 0.0, 1.761809413274638, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.9022769089480351, 0.0, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.824133036251591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6909521201778861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.38969677128122, "peer_score": 1.9822473105531588, "coverage": 0.9588070158163704, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9588070158163704, "spot_peer_score": 5.893094505033306, "spot_baseline_score": 87.97057662822883, "baseline_archived_score": 81.38969677128122, "peer_archived_score": 1.9822473105531588, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.893094505033306, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 87.97057662822883 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [OpenAI IPO would create the next hot meme stock](https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/openai-ipo-would-create-next-hot-meme-stock-2024-12-16/)" }, { "id": 35197, "title": "Will Fentanyl Citrate injections be in shortage according to the FDA on April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-fentanyl-citrate-injections-be-in-shortage-according-to-the-fda-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.743516Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.254057Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:13:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34685, "title": "Will Fentanyl Citrate injections be in shortage according to the FDA on April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.743516Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T01:14:17.232847Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[FDA background on drup shortages](Drug Shortages)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Fentanyl Citrate injections have a [status](https://dps.fda.gov/drugshortages/activeingredient/fentanyl-citrate-injection) of Currently in Shortage according to the FDA on April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35197, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740019605.673887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740019605.673887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.537339114793699 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9809716117456302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5259301839724236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.442215889607149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 1.1098312621384765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11155005983376856, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 26.482246758494195, "peer_score": 25.084539171783838, "coverage": 0.9638930194245442, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9638930194245442, "spot_peer_score": 67.4158752111655, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 26.482246758494195, "peer_archived_score": 25.084539171783838, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 67.4158752111655, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[FDA background on drup shortages](Drug Shortages)" }, { "id": 35196, "title": "Will nitroglycerin injections be in shortage according to the FDA on April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nitroglycerin-injections-be-in-shortage-according-to-the-fda-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.712363Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.459687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:12:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34684, "title": "Will nitroglycerin injections be in shortage according to the FDA on April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.712363Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T01:13:39.110100Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[FDA background on drup shortages](Drug Shortages)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if nitroglycerin injections have a [status](https://dps.fda.gov/drugshortages/activeingredient/nitroglycerin-injection) of Currently in Shortage according to the FDA on April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35196, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740019736.346032, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.28300000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6309999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740019736.346032, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.28300000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6309999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.717, 0.28300000000000003 ], "means": [ 0.3387913248957681 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43131426209606216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2782815255933073, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2837144390436694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32677805160011447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9180446865353692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -120.15416435183106, "peer_score": -4.866080078553045, "coverage": 0.9689345596896276, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9689345596896276, "spot_peer_score": 27.46577796818787, "spot_baseline_score": -82.11260418302045, "baseline_archived_score": -120.15416435183106, "peer_archived_score": -4.866080078553045, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.46577796818787, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -82.11260418302045 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[FDA background on drup shortages](Drug Shortages)" }, { "id": 35195, "title": "Will sterile water injections be in shortage according to the FDA on April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-sterile-water-injections-be-in-shortage-according-to-the-fda-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.539762Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.458091Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:11:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34683, "title": "Will sterile water injections be in shortage according to the FDA on April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.539762Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T01:12:39.518331Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[FDA background on drup shortages](Drug Shortages)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if sterile water injections have a [status](https://dps.fda.gov/drugshortages/activeingredient/sterile-water-injection) of Currently in Shortage according to the FDA on April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35195, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740019737.302146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740019737.302146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.5670552298258267 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6616017188447595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6392455230738961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1240256289528956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7723694664545373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 38.828236146081615, "peer_score": 12.173073391272975, "coverage": 0.9749867988957294, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9749867988957294, "spot_peer_score": 46.74626903628311, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 38.828236146081615, "peer_archived_score": 12.173073391272975, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 46.74626903628311, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[FDA background on drup shortages](Drug Shortages)" }, { "id": 35194, "title": "Will semaglutide injections be in shortage according to the FDA on April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-semaglutide-injections-be-in-shortage-according-to-the-fda-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.509924Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.185073Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-03T01:04:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34682, "title": "Will semaglutide injections be in shortage according to the FDA on April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.509924Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-03T01:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-03T01:04:44.038818Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[FDA background on drup shortages](Drug Shortages)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if semaglutide injections have a [status](https://dps.fda.gov/drugshortages/activeingredient/semaglutide-injection) of Currently in Shortage according to the FDA on April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35194, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740019662.59356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5043333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740019662.59356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5043333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6152032691595165 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21421654603057622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899439243127377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4593305930318068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7742280276086091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.523406482257357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -105.87273568900899, "peer_score": 9.088257818688387, "coverage": 0.9793143980370627, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9793143980370627, "spot_peer_score": 2.687552915905969, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": -105.87273568900899, "peer_archived_score": 9.088257818688387, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.687552915905969, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[FDA background on drup shortages](Drug Shortages)" }, { "id": 35193, "title": "Will Peter Navarro receive a pardon before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-peter-navarro-receive-a-pardon-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.479355Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.778892Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34681, "title": "Will Peter Navarro receive a pardon before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.479355Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T01:09:38.121775Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "WSJ: [Jailed Trump Adviser Peter Navarro Says He Doesn’t Want a Pardon: ‘I Have No Regrets’](https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/peter-navarro-pardon-donald-trump-presidency-2024-56ec0426)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before April 1, 2025, Peter Navarro is publicly reported to have received a presidential pardon from Donald J. Trump. Otherwise resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Only pardons will count, not other forms of clemency.", "post_id": 35193, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740020034.166017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740020034.166017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.3352987500475326 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5754752858131378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6683742713563907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9583963223233507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2687573238761225, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7118165837590469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -4.831000573939024, "peer_score": 27.79631281303261, "coverage": 0.9839471416340934, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9839471416340934, "spot_peer_score": 29.35973343024517, "spot_baseline_score": 54.59683691052925, "baseline_archived_score": -4.831000573939024, "peer_archived_score": 27.79631281303261, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.35973343024517, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 54.59683691052925 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "WSJ: [Jailed Trump Adviser Peter Navarro Says He Doesn’t Want a Pardon: ‘I Have No Regrets’](https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/peter-navarro-pardon-donald-trump-presidency-2024-56ec0426)" }, { "id": 35192, "title": "Will Julian Assange receive a pardon before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-julian-assange-receive-a-pardon-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.443591Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.170800Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:52:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34680, "title": "Will Julian Assange receive a pardon before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.443591Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:52:59.509055Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Telegraph: [Trump to consider pardon for Assange if he wins election](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/29/trump-to-consider-pardon-for-assange-if-he-wins-election/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before April 1, 2025, Julian Assange is publicly reported to have received a presidential pardon from Donald J. Trump. Otherwise resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Only pardons will count, not other forms of clemency.", "post_id": 35192, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740019530.520299, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740019530.520299, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.11548858752272906 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 2.1932138758615065, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6902431432340592, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2164148357617568, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.558197550133056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.31584196444268, "peer_score": 2.8673752432980804, "coverage": 0.9888495138618678, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9888495138618678, "spot_peer_score": 1.8763988376939236, "spot_baseline_score": 81.55754288625727, "baseline_archived_score": 81.31584196444268, "peer_archived_score": 2.8673752432980804, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.8763988376939236, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 81.55754288625727 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Telegraph: [Trump to consider pardon for Assange if he wins election](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/29/trump-to-consider-pardon-for-assange-if-he-wins-election/)" }, { "id": 35191, "title": "Will Edward Snowden receive a pardon before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-edward-snowden-receive-a-pardon-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.403321Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.343444Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:08:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34679, "title": "Will Edward Snowden receive a pardon before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.403321Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T01:08:53.471998Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Washington Post: [Trump advisers renew push for pardon of Edward Snowden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/12/04/trump-pardon-edward-snowden-gaetz/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before April 1, 2025, Edward Snowden is publicly reported to have received a presidential pardon from Donald J. Trump. Otherwise resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Only pardons will count, not other forms of clemency.", "post_id": 35191, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740019848.427243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740019848.427243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.10837426520567403 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1727417964059772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 2.0313602462087244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 1.5002607305289812, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.558197550133056, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.94973356206167, "peer_score": 0.8214136744332717, "coverage": 0.9942207966910466, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9942207966910466, "spot_peer_score": 3.186760838531672, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 80.94973356206167, "peer_archived_score": 0.8214136744332717, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.186760838531672, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Washington Post: [Trump advisers renew push for pardon of Edward Snowden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/12/04/trump-pardon-edward-snowden-gaetz/)" }, { "id": 35190, "title": "Will any US federal judges be impeached before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-us-federal-judges-be-impeached-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.220568Z", "published_at": "2025-02-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.224685Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 74, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T00:25:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34678, "title": "Will any US federal judges be impeached before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.220568Z", "open_time": "2025-02-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T00:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T00:26:13.170738Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NewsNation: [Can federal judges be impeached?](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/can-federal-judges-be-impeached/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a US federal judge is impeached by the US House of Representatives before April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "Please note that a conviction in the US Senate is not necessary for this question to resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 35190, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740005339.422523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.082 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740005339.422523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.082 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1438538052198603 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.05190371288004473, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 1.0, 0.8039004749638528, 1.5057977302451035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5289502567647164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3586555148246602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 79.50103083583093, "peer_score": 2.198177932015069, "coverage": 0.9496654313802719, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9496654313802719, "spot_peer_score": 3.8891012465412294, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 79.50103083583093, "peer_archived_score": 2.198177932015069, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.8891012465412294, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NewsNation: [Can federal judges be impeached?](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/can-federal-judges-be-impeached/)" }, { "id": 35189, "title": "Will the Oscars modify its DEI requirements before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-oscars-modify-its-dei-requirements-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.188704Z", "published_at": "2025-02-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.786899Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T00:23:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34677, "title": "Will the Oscars modify its DEI requirements before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.188704Z", "open_time": "2025-02-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T00:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T00:25:28.378927Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NY Post: [‘Jaws’ star Richard Dreyfuss slams new Oscars diversity rules](https://nypost.com/2023/05/07/richard-dreyfuss-slams-oscars-new-diversity-standards/) | [‘The fear is real’: As Trump administration targets DEI, professionals worry about the future of their industry](https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/04/us/dei-companies-program-policy-list/index.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences makes any changes to it representation and inclusion standards before April 1, 2025. Specifically, on the resolution date, [this page](https://www.oscars.org/awards/representation-and-inclusion-standards) will be compared with [this archived page](https://web.archive.org/web/20250130124305/https://www.oscars.org/awards/representation-and-inclusion-standards). If there is any change to the text of the representation and inclusion standards posted at the page (which includes deletion or the page getting removed from the internet), this question resolves as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35189, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740005898.371815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22999999999999998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740005898.371815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22999999999999998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.20723950501538455 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4851983024969343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.7858342852282592, 0.25629858007214823, 0.0, 1.3041360186573907, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1090782734706517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8866560317340406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 0.0, 0.1730417040968497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 72.5533674221875, "peer_score": 8.839290570728032, "coverage": 0.9565344474713007, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9565344474713007, "spot_peer_score": 10.850222408841086, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 72.5533674221875, "peer_archived_score": 8.839290570728032, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.850222408841086, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NY Post: [‘Jaws’ star Richard Dreyfuss slams new Oscars diversity rules](https://nypost.com/2023/05/07/richard-dreyfuss-slams-oscars-new-diversity-standards/) | [‘The fear is real’: As Trump administration targets DEI, professionals worry about the future of their industry](https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/04/us/dei-companies-program-policy-list/index.html)" }, { "id": 35188, "title": "Will the New York Times use the phrase \"constitutional crisis\" in its U.S. section before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-new-york-times-use-the-phrase-constitutional-crisis-in-its-us-section-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.156890Z", "published_at": "2025-02-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.600655Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T00:14:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34676, "title": "Will the New York Times use the phrase \"constitutional crisis\" in its U.S. section before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.156890Z", "open_time": "2025-02-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T00:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T00:23:10.674573Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The most recent usage of the phrase was on January 5, 2025, in this article: [‘A Day of Love’: How Trump Inverted the Violent History of Jan. 6](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/05/us/politics/january-6-capitol-riot-trump.html?searchResultPosition=1)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Times uses the phrase \"constitutional crisis\" in any article in its U.S. section after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025. Metaculus will visit [this link](https://www.nytimes.com/search?dropmab=false&lang=en&query=%22constitutional%20crisis%22§ions=U.S.%7Cnyt%3A%2F%2Fsection%2Fa34d3d6c-c77f-5931-b951-241b4e28681c&sort=newest) which searches for that phrase in the U.S. section of the newspaper, sorted from newest to oldest.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35188, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740005523.124146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4709999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.718 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740005523.124146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4709999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.718 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6192739741622975 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.7118165837590469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6043687854556801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5168544171368052, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.8682741880975265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 47.98472395372548, "peer_score": 10.575183340217418, "coverage": 0.9622627335786819, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9622627335786819, "spot_peer_score": 13.676724747220009, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 47.98472395372548, "peer_archived_score": 10.575183340217418, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.676724747220009, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The most recent usage of the phrase was on January 5, 2025, in this article: [‘A Day of Love’: How Trump Inverted the Violent History of Jan. 6](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/05/us/politics/january-6-capitol-riot-trump.html?searchResultPosition=1)" }, { "id": 35187, "title": "Will the US, EU, or Brazil formally recognize Alexander Lukashenko as the President of Belarus before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-eu-or-brazil-formally-recognize-alexander-lukashenko-as-the-president-of-belarus-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.123830Z", "published_at": "2025-02-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.463938Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 74, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T01:21:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34675, "title": "Will the US, EU, or Brazil formally recognize Alexander Lukashenko as the President of Belarus before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.123830Z", "open_time": "2025-02-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T01:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-03T01:23:10.925592Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A map of countries that do not recognize Lukashenko, current at the time of this question, is [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2020_Belarusian_presidential_election_and_protests).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, the US, EU, or Brazil formally recognize Alexander Lukashenko as the President of Belarus. \"Formally recognizes\" is defined as any official acknowledgement or statement that he is recognized as the President of Belarus by an entity with the authority to do so (e.g., the US State Deparment or the White House in the case of the United States)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35187, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740005809.275903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740005809.275903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.04624290784165716 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7556055180168637, 2.172524163188044, 0.6122484142790472, 0.8977711700998559, 2.371421466708669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2876872914458348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 90.25157351374811, "peer_score": -0.09392198946303493, "coverage": 0.9684274397293727, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9684274397293727, "spot_peer_score": 0.8785835000232515, "spot_baseline_score": 94.11063109464314, "baseline_archived_score": 90.25157351374811, "peer_archived_score": -0.09392198946303493, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.8785835000232515, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 94.11063109464314 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A map of countries that do not recognize Lukashenko, current at the time of this question, is [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2020_Belarusian_presidential_election_and_protests)." }, { "id": 35180, "title": "Will Northrop Grumman's stock continuously remain below its all-time high until March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-northrop-grummans-stock-continuously-remain-below-its-all-time-high-until-march-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:02.481800Z", "published_at": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.812564Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34668, "title": "Will Northrop Grumman's stock continuously remain below its all-time high until March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:02.481800Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T21:31:58.926773Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Investor's Business Daily: [Elon Musk Shoots Down Lockheed Martin, Other F-35 Defense Stocks](https://www.investors.com/news/elon-musk-shoots-down-lockheed-martin-other-f-35-defense-stocks/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the stock price of Northrop Grumman Corporation remains below $555.57 continuously through March 31, 2025. If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOC/history/).", "fine_print": "In case of forward or reverse stock splits, the price will be adjusted and resolved accordingly, based on comparison to the all-time high.", "post_id": 35180, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739905098.834112, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8825 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739905098.834112, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8825 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7655242492885934 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.34492555569130795, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6874535151702394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39812271165872687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9963400742969575, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 1.3239984154485755, 0.0, 1.074814427820732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.28605414922715733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 69.86213621713522, "peer_score": 4.114187694542632, "coverage": 0.9387699913978578, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9387699913978578, "spot_peer_score": 3.337852496070168, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 69.86213621713522, "peer_archived_score": 4.114187694542632, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.337852496070168, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Investor's Business Daily: [Elon Musk Shoots Down Lockheed Martin, Other F-35 Defense Stocks](https://www.investors.com/news/elon-musk-shoots-down-lockheed-martin-other-f-35-defense-stocks/)" }, { "id": 35179, "title": "Will Lockheed Martin's stock continuously remain below its all-time high until March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-lockheed-martins-stock-continuously-remain-below-its-all-time-high-until-march-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:02.253110Z", "published_at": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.522323Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:29:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34667, "title": "Will Lockheed Martin's stock continuously remain below its all-time high until March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:02.253110Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T21:30:08.765596Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Investor's Business Daily: [Elon Musk Shoots Down Lockheed Martin, Other F-35 Defense Stocks](https://www.investors.com/news/elon-musk-shoots-down-lockheed-martin-other-f-35-defense-stocks/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the stock price of Lockheed Martin Corporation remains below $618.95 continuously through March 31, 2025. If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT/history/).", "fine_print": "In case of forward or reverse stock splits, the price will be adjusted and resolved accordingly, based on comparison to the all-time high.", "post_id": 35179, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739904976.442368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9440000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739904976.442368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9440000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8897466696858523 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2233283043689968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030660934602948456, 2.3346675932298706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17610025324642237, 1.2187340854564237, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.460301366269204, 1.7287651222345652, 0.314326790937948, 0.9019935026160223, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.2382120690724, "peer_score": 0.7758677277730297, "coverage": 0.9442573727501762, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9442573727501762, "spot_peer_score": 4.388923350896605, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 75.2382120690724, "peer_archived_score": 0.7758677277730297, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.388923350896605, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Investor's Business Daily: [Elon Musk Shoots Down Lockheed Martin, Other F-35 Defense Stocks](https://www.investors.com/news/elon-musk-shoots-down-lockheed-martin-other-f-35-defense-stocks/)" }, { "id": 35178, "title": "Will Microsoft stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-microsoft-stock-continuously-remain-below-its-all-time-high-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:02.215475Z", "published_at": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.718136Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:25:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34666, "title": "Will Microsoft stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:02.215475Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T21:28:46.410118Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Microsoft Invested Nearly $14 Billion In OpenAI But Now Its Reducing Its Dependence On The ChatGPT-Parent: Report](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-invested-nearly-14-billion-000512844.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Microsoft remains below $468.35 continuously after the launch of this question and through March 31, 2025. If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/).", "fine_print": "In case of forward or reverse stock splits, the price will be adjusted and resolved accordingly, based on comparison to the all-time high.", "post_id": 35178, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739904854.903467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.816 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739904854.903467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.816 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6202776414731294 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5584580948134545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43131426209606216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1712818849538626, 0.49184465768954627, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5308671429498442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7118165837590469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 45.093803262858096, "peer_score": 25.58480263693503, "coverage": 0.949572306142913, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.949572306142913, "spot_peer_score": 33.81046127556389, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 45.093803262858096, "peer_archived_score": 25.58480263693503, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.81046127556389, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Microsoft Invested Nearly $14 Billion In OpenAI But Now Its Reducing Its Dependence On The ChatGPT-Parent: Report](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-invested-nearly-14-billion-000512844.html)" }, { "id": 35177, "title": "Will Trump Media & Technology Group (the owner of Truth Social) stock continuously remain below its all-time high until March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-trump-media-technology-group-the-owner-of-truth-social-stock-continuously-remain-below-its-all-time-high-until-march-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:02.162074Z", "published_at": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.143920Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:24:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34665, "title": "Will Trump Media & Technology Group (the owner of Truth Social) stock continuously remain below its all-time high until March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:02.162074Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T21:25:44.977852Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wall Street Journal: [DJT Stock Falls After Trump Moves $4 Billion-Plus Stake Into Trust](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-12-20-2024/card/trump-media-stock-falls-after-president-elect-moves-stake-into-trust-bWraJMknSzSH3CbRfibv)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Trump Media & Technology Group remains below $79.38 continuously through March 31, 2025. If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/history/).", "fine_print": "In case of forward or reverse stock splits, the price will be adjusted and resolved accordingly, based on comparison to the all-time high.", "post_id": 35177, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739905194.77075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.932 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739905194.77075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.932 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.10999999999999999, 0.89 ], "means": [ 0.8746709697696924 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10338307578442248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37849977519725986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.521834865291688, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.7995735536199648, 1.0, 1.868742961019137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43131426209606216, 0.0, 1.2702746785725014, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 77.7442490958203, "peer_score": 8.027372676798915, "coverage": 0.9554119510783089, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9554119510783089, "spot_peer_score": 4.5969729034501485, "spot_baseline_score": 83.18772411916731, "baseline_archived_score": 77.7442490958203, "peer_archived_score": 8.027372676798915, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.5969729034501485, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 83.18772411916731 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Wall Street Journal: [DJT Stock Falls After Trump Moves $4 Billion-Plus Stake Into Trust](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-12-20-2024/card/trump-media-stock-falls-after-president-elect-moves-stake-into-trust-bWraJMknSzSH3CbRfibv)" }, { "id": 35176, "title": "Will Dune: Part Two win an Oscar in 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-dune-part-two-win-an-oscar-in-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:02.129538Z", "published_at": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.114803Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-03T12:45:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34664, "title": "Will Dune: Part Two win an Oscar in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:02.129538Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-03T12:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-03T12:51:23.500982Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-18T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dune: Part Two has been nominated for 5 awards.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Dune: Part Two wins an Oscar at the 97 Academy Awards. Resolves according to the credible sources or [the Oscars website](https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2025) when accessed by Metaculus.", "fine_print": "This counts awards either won by the movie itself or awards won by someone who worked on the movie.", "post_id": 35176, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739904854.9918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.81 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739904854.9918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.81 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18999999999999995, 0.81 ], "means": [ 0.7728993405977591 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0189032162474185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.4021855719590737, 0.0, 0.32677805160011447, 0.43131426209606216, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 1.7118165837590469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8303655865302282, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.5584580948134545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 62.923205412132276, "peer_score": 5.3043986575716495, "coverage": 0.9611446652809779, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9611446652809779, "spot_peer_score": 8.698700281998876, "spot_baseline_score": 69.59938131099001, "baseline_archived_score": 62.923205412132276, "peer_archived_score": 5.3043986575716495, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.698700281998876, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 69.59938131099001 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dune: Part Two has been nominated for 5 awards." } ] }
