Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1480
{ "count": 5916, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1500", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1460", "results": [ { "id": 30753, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?", "short_title": "OpenAI Flags High AI CBRN Risk by 2025?", "url_title": "OpenAI Flags High AI CBRN Risk by 2025?", "slug": "openai-flags-high-ai-cbrn-risk-by-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T15:54:18.869228Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T16:19:50.838977Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.948792Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-04T16:19:50.838974Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30514, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T15:54:18.869568Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n---\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nCBRN is focused on risks related to model-assisted creation of chemical, biological, radiological, and/or nuclear threats.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to yes if an AI system released by OpenAI has a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN by December 31st 2025.\n\n**Which AI systems count?**\nAny AI system publically reported (not neccessarily releasd) by OpenAI.\n\n[Eli Lifland](https://www.elilifland.com/) is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions. He may consult others for advice as needed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30753, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755999314.92661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.325 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755999314.92661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.325 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.675, 0.325 ], "means": [ 0.325 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n---\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nCBRN is focused on risks related to model-assisted creation of chemical, biological, radiological, and/or nuclear threats." }, { "id": 30752, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?", "short_title": "OpenAI Flags Medium AI Cybersecurity Risk by 2025?", "url_title": "OpenAI Flags Medium AI Cybersecurity Risk by 2025?", "slug": "openai-flags-medium-ai-cybersecurity-risk-by-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T15:52:24.472841Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T16:19:41.643951Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.728134Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-04T16:19:41.643949Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-25T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-25T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30513, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T15:52:24.473212Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-25T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-26T01:41:35.408071Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-25T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n---\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nCybersecurity is focused on risks related to use of the model for cyber-exploitation to disrupt confidentiality, integrity, and/or availability of computer systems.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to yes if an AI system released by OpenAI has a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity by December 31st 2025.\n\n**Which AI systems count?**\nAny AI system publically reported (not neccessarily releasd) by OpenAI.\n\n[Eli Lifland](https://www.elilifland.com/) is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions. He may consult others for advice as needed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740529320.343594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740529320.343594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14, 0.86 ], "means": [ 0.8684950030295076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7295300834792231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 1.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.3383470701293, "peer_score": 1.0636578119237383, "coverage": 0.2071668134257767, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9847073991919201, "spot_peer_score": 0.304263018422523, "spot_baseline_score": 34.482849699744115, "baseline_archived_score": 12.3383470701293, "peer_archived_score": 1.0636578119237383, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.304263018422523, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 34.482849699744115 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n---\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nCybersecurity is focused on risks related to use of the model for cyber-exploitation to disrupt confidentiality, integrity, and/or availability of computer systems." }, { "id": 30744, "title": "Will Dogecoin close at below $0.50 a share every day before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-dogecoin-close-at-below-050-a-share-every-day-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.393979Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.353311Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30505, "title": "Will Dogecoin close at below $0.50 a share every day before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.393979Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:44:40.109069Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victory/articleshow/115209313.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price of Dogecoin according to [this Coingecko link](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogecoin/historical_data) remains below $0.50 a share for the closing price for each day after the launch of this question and before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "Intraday prices do not count; this question resolves based on daily closing prices. No other resolution source will be considered. The specific link to the website of the resolution source is given for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that will be used for resolution. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled** if it still cannot be accessed.", "post_id": 30744, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733408565.674564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733408565.674564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6741666179806115 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3022224809961703, 0.0, 1.026372451192788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.3058323220141224, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04705632026720761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 1.932251820719309, 0.0, 0.437849609369003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49289813246650943, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.601578890077775, "peer_score": 21.387868582804884, "coverage": 0.9983789486796768, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9983789486796768, "spot_peer_score": 30.80506100437545, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 58.601578890077775, "peer_archived_score": 21.387868582804884, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.80506100437545, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victory/articleshow/115209313.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst)" }, { "id": 30743, "title": "Will the Alpental ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 6, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-alpental-ski-resort-be-listed-as-open-by-on-the-snows-ski-report-on-december-6-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.380403Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.639708Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T13:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30504, "title": "Will the Alpental ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 6, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.380403Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T13:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T13:53:02.648645Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From the resolution source: \"Alpental (German for alpine valley) is one of four base areas at the Summit at Snoqualmie, separated from the other three by Interstate 90. Alpental offers the most advanced and expert terrain at the area with runs like Upper International and Shot Six. The area provides some of the steepest and deepest terrain, but it’s also great for beginner skiers and boarders.\n\nWhere Is Alpental Ski Resort Located?\nThe Summit at Snoqualmie is an hour from Seattle on Interstate 90.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Alpental Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/washington/alpental/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after December 6, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 30743, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733408581.84074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4666666666666666 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733408581.84074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4666666666666666 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36656530728638004 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.5589428929717781, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2574863305246531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.3152994564370336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2563074167145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.7620908974955233, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41744142835195325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21109866324959886, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7366425750996237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 38.92319714529847, "peer_score": 25.72486429348454, "coverage": 0.9977076095370231, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9977076095370231, "spot_peer_score": 21.445613673348152, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 38.92319714529847, "peer_archived_score": 25.72486429348454, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.445613673348152, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From the resolution source: \"Alpental (German for alpine valley) is one of four base areas at the Summit at Snoqualmie, separated from the other three by Interstate 90. Alpental offers the most advanced and expert terrain at the area with runs like Upper International and Shot Six. The area provides some of the steepest and deepest terrain, but it’s also great for beginner skiers and boarders.\n\nWhere Is Alpental Ski Resort Located?\nThe Summit at Snoqualmie is an hour from Seattle on Interstate 90.\"" }, { "id": 30742, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline between $3.020 and $3.080 (inclusive) for the week of December 9, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-national-average-retail-price-of-regular-gasoline-between-3020-and-3080-inclusive-for-the-week-of-december-9-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.366893Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.094284Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T15:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30503, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline between $3.020 and $3.080 (inclusive) for the week of December 9, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.366893Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T15:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-11T15:57:56.658105Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), \"Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price of greater than or equal to $3.020 and less than or equal to $3.080 for the week of December 16, 2024. The resolution source can be accessed through [this link](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w). If the reported figure is different, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If data from US EIA is not available, Metaculus may select a similar source of data or annul the question at their discretion. 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The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards.\"" }, { "id": 30741, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-national-average-retail-price-of-regular-gasoline-be-less-than-3020-for-the-week-of-december-9-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.353232Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.699598Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T15:56:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30502, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.353232Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T15:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-11T15:57:03.577486Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), \"Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price of less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024. The resolution source can be accessed through [this link](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w). If the value is greater than or equal to that amount, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If data from US EIA is not available, Metaculus may select a similar source of data or annul the question at their discretion. 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The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards.\"" }, { "id": 30740, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-national-average-retail-price-of-regular-gasoline-be-greater-than-3080-for-the-week-of-december-9-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.338730Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.845754Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T01:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30501, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.338730Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T01:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-11T01:21:18.697592Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), \"Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price of greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024. The resolution source can be accessed through [this link](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w). If the value is less than or equal to that amount, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If data from US EIA is not available, Metaculus may select a similar source of data or annul the question at their discretion. 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The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. 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A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.\"" }, { "id": 30738, "title": "Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of <1.25 degrees?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-november-2024-have-a-global-temperature-increase-of-125-degrees", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:11.995938Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.120152Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T19:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30499, "title": "Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of <1.25 degrees?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:11.995938Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T19:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T19:57:11.483430Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), \"The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. 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Daniel Penny](https://mediaroom.substack.com/p/update-people-v-daniel-penny-2f3)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Daniel Penny is found guilty or convicted of any charges stemming from the death of Jordan Neely, whether through a jury verdict or through a guilty plea (including through a plea bargain). ", "fine_print": "Please note that Penny does not have to be found not guilty; a jury still deliberation after December 31, 2024 will result in a resolution of No, as long as Penny has not been convicted of anything else in connection. 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"2024-12-31T19:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T19:08:41.441030Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-president-yoon-declares-martial-law-2024-12-03/):\n> In South Korea's biggest political crisis in decades, Yoon shocked the nation and declared martial law on Tuesday night to thwart \"anti-state forces\" among his domestic political opponents. But outraged lawmakers unanimously rejected the decree. Yonhap news agency said the cabinet had agreed early on Wednesday to scrap the martial law.\nProtesters outside the National Assembly parliament shouted and clapped. “We won!” they chanted, and one demonstrator banged on a drum.\n> \n> The main opposition Democratic Party called for Yoon, who has been in office since 2022, to resign or face impeachment. “Even if martial law is lifted, he cannot avoid treason charges. It was clearly revealed to the entire nation that President Yoon could no longer run the country normally. He should step down,\" senior DP member of parliament Park Chan-dae said in a statement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Yoon Suk Yeol is President of the Republic of Korea (also known as South Korea) on December 31, 2024.", "fine_print": "Regardless of the circumstances, if Yoon Suk Yeol holds the office of President of the Republic of Korea on December 31, 2024, this question resolves as **Yes**.", "post_id": 30711, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735586885.359037, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735586885.359037, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.993926698267177 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0043656808081595075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00032889645943876195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018890079689041174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021735444886810887, 0.0007481454443624551, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000926134218651555, 0.014229338886583794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025545491804088117, 0.000590830648692911, 0.00135283348636685, 0.0033717487736429743, 0.0, 0.0038449380582231333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11603409104006096, 0.0, 0.017039794786462566, 0.00160604421603861, 0.059001144013551526, 2.2340476201230413, 14.910330274479865 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.94709181860073, "peer_score": 20.25256432738058, "coverage": 0.9999397088861386, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999397088861386, "spot_peer_score": 24.636208208696385, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 82.94709181860073, "peer_archived_score": 20.25256432738058, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.636208208696385, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 496, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-president-yoon-declares-martial-law-2024-12-03/):\n> In South Korea's biggest political crisis in decades, Yoon shocked the nation and declared martial law on Tuesday night to thwart \"anti-state forces\" among his domestic political opponents. But outraged lawmakers unanimously rejected the decree. Yonhap news agency said the cabinet had agreed early on Wednesday to scrap the martial law.\nProtesters outside the National Assembly parliament shouted and clapped. “We won!” they chanted, and one demonstrator banged on a drum.\n> \n> The main opposition Democratic Party called for Yoon, who has been in office since 2022, to resign or face impeachment. “Even if martial law is lifted, he cannot avoid treason charges. It was clearly revealed to the entire nation that President Yoon could no longer run the country normally. He should step down,\" senior DP member of parliament Park Chan-dae said in a statement." }, { "id": 30708, "title": "Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "New French PM before Jan 1, 2025?", "url_title": "New French PM before Jan 1, 2025?", "slug": "new-french-pm-before-jan-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T02:19:48.042785Z", "published_at": "2024-12-05T06:11:47.933275Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.200362Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-05T06:11:47.933272Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-13T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30474, "title": "Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T02:19:48.043275Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T18:47:37.148949Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-13T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):\r\n> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion\r\n\r\n[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/):\r\n> French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday [December 4] on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy.\r\n> Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a new French Prime Minister has been appointed.", "fine_print": "- A potential vote of no confidence on the new PM will not affect resolution.\r\n- A caretaker PM will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 30708, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734101183.298425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734101183.298425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9472301871357885 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5241535779871288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7307110144917024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8336194404758834 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.003576288835056, "peer_score": 11.608380204181135, "coverage": 0.2340707149012213, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8864025908702478, "spot_peer_score": 63.586376158439194, "baseline_archived_score": 18.003576288835056, "peer_archived_score": 11.608380204181135, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 63.586376158439194 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):\r\n> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion\r\n\r\n[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/):\r\n> French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday [December 4] on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy.\r\n> Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit." }, { "id": 30705, "title": "Will Elon Musk have quadruple the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2030?", "short_title": "Will Musk 4X or more wealth of 2nd richest person by 2030?", "url_title": "Will Musk 4X or more wealth of 2nd richest person by 2030?", "slug": "will-musk-4x-or-more-wealth-of-2nd-richest-person-by-2030", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T01:51:15.028812Z", "published_at": "2024-12-18T01:50:48.217041Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T05:49:57.343038Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-18T01:50:48.217039Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-19T01:50:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30460, "title": "Will Elon Musk have quadruple the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T01:51:15.029154Z", "open_time": "2024-12-19T01:50:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-23T01:50:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-23T01:50:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-15T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of Dec 2, 2024 Net Worth of the five richest\nElon Musk $353B\nJeff Bezos $231B\nMark Zuckerberg $210B\nLarry Ellison $198B\nBernard Arnault $171B\n\nIt is rare for the richest person or richest family to quadruple the wealth of the next richest. Nelson Rockefeller likely had times where he was 3 to 4 times richer then the next richest person in some years. Bill Gates only tripled the wealth of the next richest\n[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\\_World%27s\\_Billionaires#2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elon Musk's net worth is quadruple or more than the second richest person in the world at any time after December 31, 2024 and before January 1, 2030, according to [Bloomberg's Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).", "fine_print": "If the Bloomberg Billionaire Index stops being available, another credible source may be used at Metaculus' discretion.", "post_id": 30705, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757614527.555384, "end_time": 1759218274.015033, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.018 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757614527.555384, "end_time": 1759218274.015033, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.018 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.21482151786187018 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.47078787023876, 1.6656339507831206, 1.6801892063588861, 0.11969230358260687, 0.3022135829173027, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7510635421755643 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of Dec 2, 2024 Net Worth of the five richest\nElon Musk $353B\nJeff Bezos $231B\nMark Zuckerberg $210B\nLarry Ellison $198B\nBernard Arnault $171B\n\nIt is rare for the richest person or richest family to quadruple the wealth of the next richest. Nelson Rockefeller likely had times where he was 3 to 4 times richer then the next richest person in some years. Bill Gates only tripled the wealth of the next richest\n[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\\_World%27s\\_Billionaires#2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001)" }, { "id": 30704, "title": "Will Elon Musk have triple the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2028?", "short_title": "Will Musk triple wealth of the 2nd richest person by 2028?", "url_title": "Will Musk triple wealth of the 2nd richest person by 2028?", "slug": "will-musk-triple-wealth-of-the-2nd-richest-person-by-2028", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T01:47:48.877206Z", "published_at": "2024-12-12T14:14:49.573699Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T13:59:47.844475Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-12T14:14:49.573696Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-14T14:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30459, "title": "Will Elon Musk have triple the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2028?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T01:47:48.877555Z", "open_time": "2024-12-14T14:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-17T14:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-17T14:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of Dec 2, 2024 Net Worth of the five richest\nElon Musk $353B\nJeff Bezos $231B\nMark Zuckerberg $210B\nLarry Ellison $198B\nBernard Arnault $171B\n\nIt is rare for the richest person or richest family to triple wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates did it briefly in 1999 and Rockefeller did it.\n[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\\_World%27s\\_Billionaires#2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001)\n\nNelson Rockefeller likely had times where he was 3 to 4 times richer then the next richest person in some years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elon Musk's net worth is equal to at least triple the next worth of the second richest person in the world at any time between after December 12, 2024 and before January 1, 2028, according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).", "fine_print": "If the Bloomberg Billionaire Index stops being available, another credible source may be used at Metaculus' discretion.", "post_id": 30704, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757614533.436301, "end_time": 1758153085.119959, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757614533.436301, "end_time": 1758153085.119959, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.16014078739663049 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.1547495186770553, 1.889895042693933, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of Dec 2, 2024 Net Worth of the five richest\nElon Musk $353B\nJeff Bezos $231B\nMark Zuckerberg $210B\nLarry Ellison $198B\nBernard Arnault $171B\n\nIt is rare for the richest person or richest family to triple wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates did it briefly in 1999 and Rockefeller did it.\n[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\\_World%27s\\_Billionaires#2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001)\n\nNelson Rockefeller likely had times where he was 3 to 4 times richer then the next richest person in some years." }, { "id": 30690, "title": "Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-bushra-bibi-be-arrested-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T19:22:09.488432Z", "published_at": "2024-12-05T06:19:41.129137Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.395419Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-05T06:19:41.129134Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30457, "title": "Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T19:22:09.488804Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T22:21:21.720727Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bushra Bibi is the wife of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Mr. Khan was ousted through a no-confidence vote in Parliament in April 2022 and sentenced to three years in a £190 million graft case. He was later found guilty of revealing official secrets and sentenced to a further 10 years in prison. In November 2024, Bushra Bibi led protests for the release of her husband. Bibi herself has been involved in the graft case and on November 22, a court issued a non-bailable warrant for her arrest as she failed to appear in eight court hearings. On November 23, the police attempted to arrest her, but they were unsuccessful as she was not present at her residence.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Bushra Bibi, the wife of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, is arrested before January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "In order to streamline this question's resolution, please note that an arrest anywhere in the world, for any reason, will resolve this question as Yes. For purposes of this question, we define \"arrest\" using the definition [posted at Nolo](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/justifies-arrest-probable-cause.html): \"An arrest requires taking someone into custody, against that person's will, in order to prosecute or interrogate. It involves a physical application of force, or submission to an officer's show of force. In sum, the arrestee must not be free to leave. Whether the act by the police is termed an arrest under state law is not relevant. When deciding whether someone has been arrested, courts apply the 'reasonable man' standard. This means asking whether a reasonable person, in the shoes of the defendant, would have concluded that he or she was not free to leave.\"", "post_id": 30690, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735633514.157618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735633514.157618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.013995698164478322 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.104639181454335, 2.044508244300708, 0.25107642863754664, 0.4817346416537838, 0.7535956555594016, 0.0, 0.03550367010089748, 0.10957976461626417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012491892736397447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01040622348426393, 0.0, 0.014830008481343462, 0.0, 0.008551805847127919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004173285167582051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08040436677867299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 33.3198591582376, "peer_score": 17.31828474404753, "coverage": 0.9999361184003738, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999361184003738, "spot_peer_score": -8.177649855565832, "spot_baseline_score": -59.94620704162715, "baseline_archived_score": 33.3198591582376, "peer_archived_score": 17.31828474404753, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.177649855565832, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -59.94620704162715 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 327, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bushra Bibi is the wife of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Mr. Khan was ousted through a no-confidence vote in Parliament in April 2022 and sentenced to three years in a £190 million graft case. He was later found guilty of revealing official secrets and sentenced to a further 10 years in prison. In November 2024, Bushra Bibi led protests for the release of her husband. Bibi herself has been involved in the graft case and on November 22, a court issued a non-bailable warrant for her arrest as she failed to appear in eight court hearings. On November 23, the police attempted to arrest her, but they were unsuccessful as she was not present at her residence." }, { "id": 30681, "title": "Will Candy Meehan survive the recall vote in Norwood, Colorado, scheduled for December 10, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-candy-meehan-survive-the-recall-vote-in-norwood-colorado-scheduled-for-december-10-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:03.133964Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.593011Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T13:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30447, "title": "Will Candy Meehan survive the recall vote in Norwood, Colorado, scheduled for December 10, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:03.133964Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T13:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T13:34:15.423923Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Candy Meehan recall, Norwood, Colorado (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Candy_Meehan_recall,_Norwood,_Colorado_(2024))", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Mayor Candy Meehan wins the recall vote scheduled for December 10, 2024, in Norwood CO.", "fine_print": "The question resolves based on election results known before January 1, 2025. In the event of presumably rare edge cases such as the ballot being postponed or cancelled, the count taking too long to declare a winner, or the individual resigning before the vote takes place, this question wil be **annulled** if there is no answer before January 1, 2025. 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"group_rank": null, "description": "[Exclusive: OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI is listed as \"Exempt\" by Delaware's Division of Corporations on December 31, 2024. To access the status page, go [here](https://icis.corp.delaware.gov/ecorp/entitysearch/NameSearch.aspx) and do a search for file number 5902936. If it shows \"Entity Type: Exempt\" then this question resolves as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "The specific link to the website of the resolution source is provided for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that will be used for resolution. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled** if it still cannot be accessed.", "post_id": 30680, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325202.171152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325202.171152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.3090767070832355 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2925310191842163, 0.5673981855945806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 2.3835377488474716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ecosystems and the global climate system. It contributes to rising sea levels, and is likely to provoke extreme temperature events beyond the Arctic. The effects of a shifting Arctic climate are felt across the high latitudes and beyond – with global environmental, economic, and social implications.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers National Weather Service weather station in Alaska exceeds the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥6 degrees Fahrenheit. 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