Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1500
{ "count": 6320, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1520", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1480", "results": [ { "id": 35166, "title": "Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-winner-of-the-rugby-mens-2025-six-nations-championship-have-at-least-5-more-total-competition-points-than-the-second-place", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:01.188701Z", "published_at": "2025-02-17T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.882408Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-20T14:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34654, "title": "Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:01.188701Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-17T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-17T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-20T14:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-20T14:58:10.438975Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe [<u>Six Nations Championship</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Nations_Championship) is a long-running annual rugby competition between international competitors. Established in 1883 as the Home Nations Championship, between the four nations of the United Kingdom, its current iteration is between the teams of England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, and Wales.\n\nEach Championship consists of 15 matches, with each team playing the other five once. The Championship winner is determined by a [<u>points system</u>](https://www.sixnationsrugby.com/en/m6n/championship-rules) that includes Match Points, with some Match Points typically referred to as Bonus Points. If a team wins a match, they receive four Match Points. Draws result in two Match Points for each team. A single Bonus Point can be earned for each match by scoring four or more tries during the match. If a team loses a match a Bonus Point can be earned for that match by losing by seven points or fewer.\n\nWinning all five matches is called a “Grand Slam” and earns a team an additional three Bonus Points, giving it a minimum score of 23 points. This ensures that winning a Grand Slam wins the competition, even if another team wins four of their games and maxes out their bonus points.\n\nThe [<u>2025 Six Nations Championship</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Six_Nations_Championship) is scheduled to be held from January 31, 2025, through March 15, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship beats the team finishing second by 5 or more total competition points, according to reports of the final results published by [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). Total competition points include Match Points and Bonus Points.", "fine_print": "* In the event of delays or postponements that result in the final competition score not being available before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 35166, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739807548.893511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.4036666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739807548.893511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.4036666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5963333333333334, 0.4036666666666666 ], "means": [ 0.42517319307754886 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6084093106726526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.262743382373636, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4106318615762916, 0.0, 0.8287108151433491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8728769232315137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30898085063982406, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 24.552266616358164, "peer_score": 2.0149767045846785, "coverage": 0.9869306877586578, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9869306877586578, "spot_peer_score": 4.286583286897757, "spot_baseline_score": 25.41908866686651, "baseline_archived_score": 24.552266616358164, "peer_archived_score": 2.0149767045846785, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.286583286897757, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 25.41908866686651 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe [<u>Six Nations Championship</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Nations_Championship) is a long-running annual rugby competition between international competitors. Established in 1883 as the Home Nations Championship, between the four nations of the United Kingdom, its current iteration is between the teams of England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, and Wales.\n\nEach Championship consists of 15 matches, with each team playing the other five once. The Championship winner is determined by a [<u>points system</u>](https://www.sixnationsrugby.com/en/m6n/championship-rules) that includes Match Points, with some Match Points typically referred to as Bonus Points. If a team wins a match, they receive four Match Points. Draws result in two Match Points for each team. A single Bonus Point can be earned for each match by scoring four or more tries during the match. If a team loses a match a Bonus Point can be earned for that match by losing by seven points or fewer.\n\nWinning all five matches is called a “Grand Slam” and earns a team an additional three Bonus Points, giving it a minimum score of 23 points. This ensures that winning a Grand Slam wins the competition, even if another team wins four of their games and maxes out their bonus points.\n\nThe [<u>2025 Six Nations Championship</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Six_Nations_Championship) is scheduled to be held from January 31, 2025, through March 15, 2025." }, { "id": 35164, "title": "In its March update, will Similarweb report chatgpt.com having a higher rank than reddit.com?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "in-its-march-update-will-similarweb-report-chatgptcom-having-a-higher-rank-than-redditcom", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:00.952106Z", "published_at": "2025-02-17T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.684122Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T11:36:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34652, "title": "In its March update, will Similarweb report chatgpt.com having a higher rank than reddit.com?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:00.952106Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T11:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-17T11:40:27.561334Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.75, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[ChatGPT website traffic hits a new high, ranking sixth in the world](https://www.panewslab.com/en/articledetails/m015gje2.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, in its update timestamped in March 2025, which will be accessed by Metaculus on or after March 1, 2025, chatgpt.com has a higher rank than reddit.com at the [Similarweb Top Websites Ranking](https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/). If reddit.com has a higher rank, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "When accessing the rankings, ensure it is set to All Categories and Worldwide.", "post_id": 35164, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739767849.943425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.684 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739767849.943425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.684 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31599999999999995, 0.684 ], "means": [ 0.5636890174562375 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 1.0175807480457333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5615848758180646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 1.2573512567349105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.11403829617748, "peer_score": 16.96698832826351, "coverage": 0.9762460649675795, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9762460649675795, "spot_peer_score": 18.50071273837165, "spot_baseline_score": 45.20682302238109, "baseline_archived_score": 55.11403829617748, "peer_archived_score": 16.96698832826351, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.50071273837165, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 45.20682302238109 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[ChatGPT website traffic hits a new high, ranking sixth in the world](https://www.panewslab.com/en/articledetails/m015gje2.html)" }, { "id": 35163, "title": "In its March update, will Similarweb report chatgpt.com having a higher rank than wikipedia.org?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "in-its-march-update-will-similarweb-report-chatgptcom-having-a-higher-rank-than-wikipediaorg", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:00.921860Z", "published_at": "2025-02-17T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.246823Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T18:53:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34651, "title": "In its March update, will Similarweb report chatgpt.com having a higher rank than wikipedia.org?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:00.921860Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T18:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-17T18:56:57.858934Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.75, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[ChatGPT website traffic hits a new high, ranking sixth in the world](https://www.panewslab.com/en/articledetails/m015gje2.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, in its update timestamped in March 2025, which will be accessed by Metaculus on or after March 1, 2025, chatgpt.com has a higher rank than wikipedia.org at the [Similarweb Top Websites Ranking](https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/). If wikipedia.org has a higher rank, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "When accessing the rankings, ensure it is set to All Categories and Worldwide.", "post_id": 35163, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739767857.149174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739767857.149174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3756409408223159 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6683852212590464, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 1.8044355980171698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4475099811332295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32454920696835854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6562642058017948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2453999290439601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -72.21441626765551, "peer_score": -0.4911413345292752, "coverage": 0.9811654552486209, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9811654552486209, "spot_peer_score": -5.358349691825418, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "baseline_archived_score": -72.21441626765551, "peer_archived_score": -0.4911413345292752, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.358349691825418, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[ChatGPT website traffic hits a new high, ranking sixth in the world](https://www.panewslab.com/en/articledetails/m015gje2.html)" }, { "id": 35162, "title": "In its March update, will Similarweb report deepseek.com being ranked in the top 50 globally?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "in-its-march-update-will-similarweb-report-deepseekcom-being-ranked-in-the-top-50-globally", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:00.891065Z", "published_at": "2025-02-17T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.487834Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-13T12:28:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34650, "title": "In its March update, will Similarweb report deepseek.com being ranked in the top 50 globally?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:00.891065Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-13T12:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-13T12:32:12.560898Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[ChatGPT website traffic hits a new high, ranking sixth in the world](https://www.panewslab.com/en/articledetails/m015gje2.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, in its update timestamped in March 2025, which will be accessed by Metaculus on or after March 1, 2025, deepseek appears in the top 50 at the [Similarweb Top Websites Ranking](https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/).", "fine_print": "When accessing the rankings, ensure it is set to All Categories and Worldwide.", "post_id": 35162, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739767852.312331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739767852.312331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3267887051790737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.853362670731269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.769992985982414, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5631240773182966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.8859183200045558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.312055378701134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5370085355981938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5626170525674368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2891744373603198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -74.07149198814683, "peer_score": 6.142365117327111, "coverage": 0.9871043577459123, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9871043577459123, "spot_peer_score": -1.4642857250237011, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "baseline_archived_score": -74.07149198814683, "peer_archived_score": 6.142365117327111, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.4642857250237011, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[ChatGPT website traffic hits a new high, ranking sixth in the world](https://www.panewslab.com/en/articledetails/m015gje2.html)" }, { "id": 35108, "title": "Will Emerson Mnangagwa be president of Zimbabwe on January 1st, 2029?", "short_title": "Will Mnangagwa remain president beyond a 2nd term?", "url_title": "Will Mnangagwa remain president beyond a 2nd term?", "slug": "will-mnangagwa-remain-president-beyond-a-2nd-term", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-14T20:08:49.522548Z", "published_at": "2025-02-26T11:30:33.488696Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T06:58:11.596944Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-26T11:30:33.488694Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T19:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-01T11:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34596, "title": "Will Emerson Mnangagwa be president of Zimbabwe on January 1st, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-02-14T20:08:49.522899Z", "open_time": "2025-03-01T11:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-05T11:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-05T11:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T19:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:47:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:47:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of February 2025, [Emmerson Mnangagwa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmerson_Mnangagwa) is serving his second term as [President of Zimbabwe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Zimbabwe), which began in August 2023 and is set to conclude in 2028. [He has publicly stated his intention to step down at the end of this term](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-02/zimbabwe-s-president-plans-to-step-down-when-tenure-ends-in-2028?utm_source=chatgpt.com\\&embedded-checkout=true).\n\nHowever, there are [ongoing discussions within the ruling ZANU-PF party about amending the constitution to allow Mnangagwa to seek a third term or extend his current term by two years, potentially until 2030](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/zimbabwes-zanu-pf-wants-extend-presidents-term-by-two-years-2025-01-14/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). The opposition [has expressed strong objections to such amendments](https://www.voanews.com/a/zimbabwe-ruling-party-to-push-for-third-term-for-president-mnangagwa-/7939642.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com), emphasizing the importance of adhering to the 2013 constitution, which limits presidents to two five-year terms.\n\nGiven these dynamics, while Mnangagwa is expected to remain president through January 1, 2026, the political landscape in Zimbabwe is subject to change, especially with potential constitutional amendments on the horizon.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Emerson Mnangagwa is President of Zimbabwe on January 1, 2029. It resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as [the official 'office of the president' page on the Zimbabwean governmental website](https://www.zim.gov.zw/index.php/en/my-government/government-ministries/opc) or the [UN heads of state](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) database.\n\nIf Mnangagwa ceases to be president of Zimbabwe before January 1, 2029, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "If there is disagreement between the two resolution sources, or there are multiple credible reports from mainstream western or SADC-region journalistic sources disagreeing with the resolution sources at time of resolution, the question will be annulled. ", "post_id": 35108, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762498680.722532, "end_time": 1763940861.216, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762498680.722532, "end_time": 1763940861.216, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3207406448095631 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5939050391481373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.955703889736218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of February 2025, [Emmerson Mnangagwa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmerson_Mnangagwa) is serving his second term as [President of Zimbabwe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Zimbabwe), which began in August 2023 and is set to conclude in 2028. [He has publicly stated his intention to step down at the end of this term](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-02/zimbabwe-s-president-plans-to-step-down-when-tenure-ends-in-2028?utm_source=chatgpt.com\\&embedded-checkout=true).\n\nHowever, there are [ongoing discussions within the ruling ZANU-PF party about amending the constitution to allow Mnangagwa to seek a third term or extend his current term by two years, potentially until 2030](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/zimbabwes-zanu-pf-wants-extend-presidents-term-by-two-years-2025-01-14/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). The opposition [has expressed strong objections to such amendments](https://www.voanews.com/a/zimbabwe-ruling-party-to-push-for-third-term-for-president-mnangagwa-/7939642.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com), emphasizing the importance of adhering to the 2013 constitution, which limits presidents to two five-year terms.\n\nGiven these dynamics, while Mnangagwa is expected to remain president through January 1, 2026, the political landscape in Zimbabwe is subject to change, especially with potential constitutional amendments on the horizon." }, { "id": 35101, "title": "Will Donald Trump have a positive approval rating on March 23, 2025?", "short_title": "Trump positive approval rating on March 23, 2025?", "url_title": "Trump positive approval rating on March 23, 2025?", "slug": "trump-positive-approval-rating-on-march-23-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-14T04:00:06.391934Z", "published_at": "2025-02-17T15:07:21.072932Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.848066Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-17T15:07:21.072930Z", "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:36:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 868, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34591, "title": "Will Donald Trump have a positive approval rating on March 23, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-14T04:00:06.392300Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T21:37:14.626451Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-22T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nPresidents tend to go through a \"[honeymoon period](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/honeymoon-period/)\" shortly after they are elected, where they enjoy high public approval ratings. Though presidents like Eisenhower and Kennedy enjoyed honeymoon periods lasting a year or more, these periods have [grown shorter](https://news.gallup.com/poll/121391/obama-honeymoon-continues-months-recent-average.aspx) in recent decades, potentially due to increased polarization and the rapid news cycle, with modern presidents often seeing their initial support wane within months.\n\nIn his first presidential term, Donald Trump had a positive approval rating [only for the first two weeks in office](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/), with his approval rating averaging slightly higher than 40% throughout his term, with his disapproval rating averaging a little over 50%. However, the 2024 election was more successful for Trump and his approval ratings [have stayed around 49%](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/) from his inauguration until mid-February 2025, compared to his disapproval rating in the low to mid-40s.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump's net approval rating for March 23, 2025 is marked as \"Approve\" [by 538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/). The resolution will be based on the already-calculated net rating presented by 538.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Trump's rating is classified as \"Approve\" by 538, even if that rating is 0.0. In case 538 has stopped classifying ratings as \"Approve\" or \"Disapprove\" or other equivalent categories, this question will resolve as **Yes** if Trump's Approve rating is greater than his Disapprove rating.\n\nThis question will resolve as the March 23, 2025 value when accessed by Metaculus on March 30, 2025. If no value for March 23, 2025 is available on March 30, 2025, the closest values will be used to resolve this question, provided that these are for any date after March 16, 2025 and before March 30, 2025.\n\nIn that case, the resolution will be calculated as follows: If there is one, unambiguous closest value (e.g., a value for March 22, 2025 is shown on the site but not one for March 24, 2025), the question will resolve using that. If there are two equidistant closest values, then the question will resolve using their average.", "post_id": 35101, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742642381.513729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 857, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742642381.513729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 857, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.0684587813807991 ], "histogram": [ [ 33.24206957085874, 10.66021638261949, 3.9998333149342495, 0.8110160808043909, 0.9947597233907508, 1.3471773041801147, 0.7351861069429868, 0.02209556329852208, 0.015673036450988716, 0.0007272116606628982, 0.5925882011544504, 0.02244800811339226, 0.04781474933297242, 0.047132402577567664, 0.0024944296690015827, 0.00725383418875296, 0.009927924356996406, 0.0, 0.0155537844493653, 3.265050261597895e-05, 0.00018843140670293142, 0.0021111116827609378, 9.325515395612576e-06, 0.06209177725045438, 2.7542826679737463e-05, 0.06557305924962216, 0.0005266358256071383, 0.008333805075782895, 4.4157995598754213e-05, 0.0, 0.02114392397604367, 0.0139184366722485, 2.0280216585025138e-05, 1.2936726906403093e-06, 7.26040416706532e-05, 0.018741546138550683, 5.1900458296943896e-09, 3.4247479723370264e-07, 8.04127314931024e-07, 1.5993290471671544e-05, 0.008068303085367635, 0.19164555078438641, 0.0001327558862870666, 3.3835032543993444e-05, 3.560711503111877e-06, 1.7619790969711792e-07, 9.158564435773555e-08, 0.23832739413020765, 0.39168109198634965, 2.0791077178041384e-05, 5.981836415358795e-07, 1.1163143230385488e-07, 0.625406908003713, 2.0229330050038626e-05, 0.013372197064471134, 9.856505109007334e-05, 0.006064306886400788, 8.605801617077244e-09, 0.0, 2.1729431814692256e-09, 5.7611579799239755e-05, 2.5129203880206435e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3801209845056124e-05, 9.644263448600169e-06, 0.03640488341416758, 5.7712932499329886e-08, 0.011854145517705247, 3.3076349214642017e-07, 0.18820685765303846, 1.1058005556923943e-08, 0.31110534828321357, 5.132249710750185e-08, 0.0, 0.015089087537476394, 6.814791145187845e-06, 0.0, 0.021955928380722346, 2.775936751195985e-07, 1.974371068658207e-05, 0.0, 0.10095431308785814, 1.5643746187810265e-06, 0.00039262987926128853, 0.015688177076596366, 3.3682233282715597e-06, 1.7831072504968817e-07, 1.0787941759897336e-10, 0.00014997036558539058, 3.9967119589161076e-05, 7.277640617889651e-09, 1.3253109789619057e-08, 2.34156221078568e-08, 0.0, 0.0001294591808540865, 0.0, 0.0, 3.773685698714074e-08, 2.1067658103505784 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3241, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nPresidents tend to go through a \"[honeymoon period](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/honeymoon-period/)\" shortly after they are elected, where they enjoy high public approval ratings. Though presidents like Eisenhower and Kennedy enjoyed honeymoon periods lasting a year or more, these periods have [grown shorter](https://news.gallup.com/poll/121391/obama-honeymoon-continues-months-recent-average.aspx) in recent decades, potentially due to increased polarization and the rapid news cycle, with modern presidents often seeing their initial support wane within months.\n\nIn his first presidential term, Donald Trump had a positive approval rating [only for the first two weeks in office](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/), with his approval rating averaging slightly higher than 40% throughout his term, with his disapproval rating averaging a little over 50%. However, the 2024 election was more successful for Trump and his approval ratings [have stayed around 49%](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/) from his inauguration until mid-February 2025, compared to his disapproval rating in the low to mid-40s." }, { "id": 35096, "title": "Will the U.S. tax code still allow carried interest to be taxed as a long-term capital gain on January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Carried Interest Loophole be Closed?", "url_title": "Will Carried Interest Loophole be Closed?", "slug": "will-carried-interest-loophole-be-closed", "author_id": 113641, "author_username": "gomaill2", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-13T15:04:32.532062Z", "published_at": "2025-02-13T17:57:39.652114Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:33:35.975613Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-13T17:57:39.652112Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T14:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T14:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-17T17:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34586, "title": "Will the U.S. tax code still allow carried interest to be taxed as a long-term capital gain on January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-02-13T15:04:32.532424Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T17:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T17:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T17:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T14:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T14:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T14:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The carried interest \"loophole\" is a tax provision that allows private equity, hedge fund, and venture capital managers to pay the lower long-term capital gains tax rate (typically 20%) on their performance-based earnings, rather than the higher ordinary income tax rate (up to 37%). This tax treatment is based on the idea that carried interest represents an investment return rather than labor income, but critics argue it is a form of compensation for services and should be taxed as such.\n\nMultiple attempts have been made to close or modify the loophole, often led by Democratic lawmakers.\n\nIn 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) extended the required holding period for carried interest from one year to three years but stopped short of eliminating the preferential tax treatment.\n\nIn 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act initially included a provision to tighten the loophole but was ultimately dropped due to opposition from Senator Kyrsten Sinema and private equity lobbyists.\n\nIn 2024, proposals to close the loophole remain politically contentious, with Democrats generally favoring its repeal and Republicans (along with moderate Democrats) opposing major changes.\n\nPresident Donald Trump has recently proposed eliminating the carried interest loophole, a stance that aligns him with many Democratic lawmakers who have long pushed for its repeal.\n\nWhile closing the carried interest loophole is a frequent talking point in tax reform discussions, significant lobbying resistance and a divided Congress make major changes uncertain. For the loophole to be eliminated within a year, a new tax bill would nee to pass through both chambers and be signed into law—a process that historically faces strong industry pushback.\n\nSee Also\n\n[Wikipedia Carried interest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carried_interest)\n\n[Investopedia Carried Interest Explained: Who It Benefits and How It Works](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/carriedinterest.asp)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves YES if, as of January 1, 2026, U.S. tax law permits carried interest (the share of investment profits earned by private equity, hedge fund, and venture capital managers) to be taxed at the long-term capital gains rate rather than as the rate that equivalent ordinary income is taxed.\n\nThe question resolves NO if the law is changed so that carried interest is taxed as ordinary income, or if there is another fundamental change that removes this preferential tax treatment to make taxation of carried interest substantially equivalent to taxation of ordinary income.\n\nThe question resolves YES if there are only minor modifications, increased holding period requirements, or proposed changes that have not yet taken effect. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35096, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762104805.472344, "end_time": 1762993779.031, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762104805.472344, "end_time": 1762993779.031, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9323999702635283 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.2293426566480452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The carried interest \"loophole\" is a tax provision that allows private equity, hedge fund, and venture capital managers to pay the lower long-term capital gains tax rate (typically 20%) on their performance-based earnings, rather than the higher ordinary income tax rate (up to 37%). This tax treatment is based on the idea that carried interest represents an investment return rather than labor income, but critics argue it is a form of compensation for services and should be taxed as such.\n\nMultiple attempts have been made to close or modify the loophole, often led by Democratic lawmakers.\n\nIn 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) extended the required holding period for carried interest from one year to three years but stopped short of eliminating the preferential tax treatment.\n\nIn 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act initially included a provision to tighten the loophole but was ultimately dropped due to opposition from Senator Kyrsten Sinema and private equity lobbyists.\n\nIn 2024, proposals to close the loophole remain politically contentious, with Democrats generally favoring its repeal and Republicans (along with moderate Democrats) opposing major changes.\n\nPresident Donald Trump has recently proposed eliminating the carried interest loophole, a stance that aligns him with many Democratic lawmakers who have long pushed for its repeal.\n\nWhile closing the carried interest loophole is a frequent talking point in tax reform discussions, significant lobbying resistance and a divided Congress make major changes uncertain. For the loophole to be eliminated within a year, a new tax bill would nee to pass through both chambers and be signed into law—a process that historically faces strong industry pushback.\n\nSee Also\n\n[Wikipedia Carried interest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carried_interest)\n\n[Investopedia Carried Interest Explained: Who It Benefits and How It Works](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/carriedinterest.asp)" }, { "id": 35083, "title": "Will at least 1.5% of the population have a doctoral degree?", "short_title": "Population with a doctoral degree", "url_title": "Population with a doctoral degree", "slug": "population-with-a-doctoral-degree", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-12T20:49:11.474058Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T20:50:02.214042Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.034254Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-12T20:50:02.214039Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 34575, "title": "Will at least 1.5% of the population have a doctoral degree?", "created_at": "2025-02-12T20:49:11.474566Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T20:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T20:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The two most recent values are:\n\n* 2023: 1%\n* 2024: 1%", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the responsible organ of the Government of the Republic of Estonia reports that the percentage of residents who have a doctoral degree is greater than or equal to 1.5%.", "fine_print": "* The reference date is the beginning of the year.\n* \"Doctoral degrees\" include residency training and Ph.D.", "post_id": 35083, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The two most recent values are:\n\n* 2023: 1%\n* 2024: 1%" }, { "id": 35082, "title": "Will at least 45% of the population aged 25-34 have higher education?", "short_title": "Tertiary education", "url_title": "Tertiary education", "slug": "tertiary-education", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-12T20:43:53.246613Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T20:44:08.455866Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.067180Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-12T20:44:08.455863Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 34574, "title": "Will at least 45% of the population aged 25-34 have higher education?", "created_at": "2025-02-12T20:43:53.247031Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T20:43:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T20:43:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The two most recent values were:\n\n* 2022: 43.9%\n* 2023: 43.5%", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the responsible organ of the Government of the Republic of Estonia reports that the percentage of residents aged 25‒34 who have higher or equivalent education is greater than or equal to 45%.", "fine_print": "\"Higher or equivalent education\" corresponds to ISCED levels 5‒8.", "post_id": 35082, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746787116.863413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746787116.863413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8679150073117561 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2086429191039083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The two most recent values were:\n\n* 2022: 43.9%\n* 2023: 43.5%" }, { "id": 35081, "title": "Will at least 80% of the population have professional or vocational education?", "short_title": "Professional and vocational education", "url_title": "Professional and vocational education", "slug": "professional-and-vocational-education", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-12T20:19:57.927469Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T20:35:14.659416Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.416227Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-12T20:35:14.659413Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32553, "name": "Tõetamm – Tree of Truth", "type": "community", "slug": "toetamm", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 101262, "username": "BrunoParga", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 34573, "title": "Will at least 80% of the population have professional or vocational education?", "created_at": "2025-02-12T20:19:57.927821Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T20:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T20:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T20:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-24T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The most recent values are:\n\n- 2022: 74.7%\n- 2023: 74.9%", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the responsible organ of the Government of the Republic of Estonia reports that the percentage of residents who have professional or vocational education is greater than or equal to 80%.", "fine_print": "The population considered is people aged between 25 and 64.", "post_id": 35081, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The most recent values are:\n\n- 2022: 74.7%\n- 2023: 74.9%" }, { "id": 35054, "title": "How likely do you think it is that overall, the impact of High Level Machine Intelligence will be extremely negative for humanity in the long run?", "short_title": "p(doom)", "url_title": "p(doom)", "slug": "pdoom", "author_id": 168127, "author_username": "romeodean", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-09T22:36:23.250015Z", "published_at": "2025-02-09T22:36:41.687194Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.561462Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-09T22:36:41.687192Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-09T22:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32672, "name": "Harvard's AI Safety Student Team", "type": "community", "slug": "aisst-spring2025", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32672, "name": "Harvard's AI Safety Student Team", "type": "community", "slug": "aisst-spring2025", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 34533, "title": "How likely do you think it is that overall, the impact of High Level Machine Intelligence will be extremely negative for humanity in the long run?", "created_at": "2025-02-09T22:36:23.250534Z", "open_time": "2025-02-09T22:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey)*, see the survey questions for additional background information.*", "resolution_criteria": "By \"extremely negative\" we mean something like human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of human civilization. By \"in the long run\" we mean over hundreds or thousands of years. This question is taken from [Grace et al., (2024)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.02843)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35054, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739671901.599887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739671901.599887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.29000000000000004, 0.71 ], "means": [ 0.5634837565334083 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey)*, see the survey questions for additional background information.*" }, { "id": 35043, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Model Autonomy?", "short_title": "Model Autonomy", "url_title": "Model Autonomy", "slug": "model-autonomy", "author_id": 168127, "author_username": "romeodean", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-09T02:38:56.702666Z", "published_at": "2025-02-09T02:39:12.398442Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.282294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-09T02:39:12.398440Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-09T02:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32672, "name": "Harvard's AI Safety Student Team", "type": "community", "slug": "aisst-spring2025", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32672, "name": "Harvard's AI Safety Student Team", "type": "community", "slug": "aisst-spring2025", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 34522, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Model Autonomy?", "created_at": "2025-02-09T02:38:56.703009Z", "open_time": "2025-02-09T02:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey)*, see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nModel autonomy enables actors to run scaled misuse that can adapt to environmental changes and evade attempts to mitigate or shut down operations.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to yes if an AI system released by OpenAI has a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Model Autonomy by December 31st 2025.\n\n**Which AI systems count?**\nAny AI system publicly reported (not necessarily released) by OpenAI.\n\n[Eli Lifland](https://www.elilifland.com/) is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions. He may consult others for advice as needed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35043, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739673434.55835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739673434.55835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.671031154986034 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey)*, see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nModel autonomy enables actors to run scaled misuse that can adapt to environmental changes and evade attempts to mitigate or shut down operations." }, { "id": 35042, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?", "short_title": "CBRN", "url_title": "CBRN", "slug": "cbrn", "author_id": 168127, "author_username": "romeodean", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-09T02:36:26.958971Z", "published_at": "2025-02-09T02:36:48.035279Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.736691Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-09T02:36:48.035277Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-09T02:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32672, "name": "Harvard's AI Safety Student Team", "type": "community", "slug": "aisst-spring2025", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32672, "name": "Harvard's AI Safety Student Team", "type": "community", "slug": "aisst-spring2025", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 34521, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?", "created_at": "2025-02-09T02:36:26.959401Z", "open_time": "2025-02-09T02:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey)*, see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nCBRN is focused on risks related to model-assisted creation of chemical, biological, radiological, and/or nuclear threats.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to yes if an AI system released by OpenAI has a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN by December 31st 2025.\n\n**Which AI systems count?**\nAny AI system publically reported (not neccessarily releasd) by OpenAI.\n\n[Eli Lifland](https://www.elilifland.com/) is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions. He may consult others for advice as needed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35042, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739673165.860294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739673165.860294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6070272953375763 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9554154554519203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey)*, see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nCBRN is focused on risks related to model-assisted creation of chemical, biological, radiological, and/or nuclear threats." }, { "id": 35041, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?", "short_title": "Persuasion", "url_title": "Persuasion", "slug": "persuasion", "author_id": 168127, "author_username": "romeodean", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-09T02:34:15.378451Z", "published_at": "2025-02-09T02:35:02.670431Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.561689Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-09T02:35:02.670428Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-09T02:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32672, "name": "Harvard's AI Safety Student Team", "type": "community", "slug": "aisst-spring2025", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32672, "name": "Harvard's AI Safety Student Team", "type": "community", "slug": "aisst-spring2025", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 34520, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?", "created_at": "2025-02-09T02:34:15.378782Z", "open_time": "2025-02-09T02:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey)*, see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nPersuasion is focused on risks related to convincing people to change their beliefs (or act on) both static and interactive model-generated content.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to yes if an AI system released by OpenAI has a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion by December 31st 2025.\n\n**Which AI systems count?**\nAny AI system publicly reported (not necessarily released) by OpenAI.\n\n[Eli Lifland](https://www.elilifland.com/) is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions. He may consult others for advice as needed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35041, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739673147.028419, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739673147.028419, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.537755288948906 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey)*, see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nPersuasion is focused on risks related to convincing people to change their beliefs (or act on) both static and interactive model-generated content." }, { "id": 35039, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?", "short_title": "Cybersecurity", "url_title": "Cybersecurity", "slug": "cybersecurity", "author_id": 168127, "author_username": "romeodean", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-09T02:31:19.181362Z", "published_at": "2025-02-09T02:32:20.137540Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.509183Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-09T02:32:20.137538Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-09T02:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32672, "name": "Harvard's AI Safety Student Team", "type": "community", "slug": "aisst-spring2025", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32672, "name": "Harvard's AI Safety Student Team", "type": "community", "slug": "aisst-spring2025", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 34518, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?", "created_at": "2025-02-09T02:31:19.181697Z", "open_time": "2025-02-09T02:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey)*, see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nCybersecurity is focused on risks related to use of the model for cyber-exploitation to disrupt confidentiality, integrity, and/or availability of computer systems.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to yes if an AI system released by OpenAI has a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity by December 31st 2025.\n\n**Which AI systems count?**\nAny AI system publically reported (not neccessarily releasd) by OpenAI.\n\n[Eli Lifland](https://www.elilifland.com/) is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions. He may consult others for advice as needed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739672734.18801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739672734.18801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8643446763410713 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.6053381914439694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9554154554519203, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey)*, see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nCybersecurity is focused on risks related to use of the model for cyber-exploitation to disrupt confidentiality, integrity, and/or availability of computer systems." }, { "id": 35019, "title": "Will a Nicaragua Canal be complete by 2051?", "short_title": "Nicaragua Canal by 2051", "url_title": "Nicaragua Canal by 2051", "slug": "nicaragua-canal-by-2051", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T05:39:12.512828Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T10:30:10.177413Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.968286Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-12T10:30:10.177411Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-15T10:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34503, "title": "Will a Nicaragua Canal be complete by 2051?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T05:39:12.513173Z", "open_time": "2025-02-15T10:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-19T10:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-19T10:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nicaragua was a serious contender for the project that later became the Panama Canal. Preliminary construction work on a canal across Nicaragua [began in 1890 but was suspended in 1893](https://porteconomicsmanagement.org/pemp/contents/part12/nicaragua-canal-project/). Decisive factors in Panama's favor included real estate costs and [fears of volcanism](https://blogs.loc.gov/maps/2017/11/the-elusive-nicaragua-canal/) from [Mount Momotombo](https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/momotombo.html). Interest in building a Nicaragua canal has waxed and waned since then ([72 attempts by one count!](http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2015/01/01/actualidad/1420148520_749810.html)).\n\nIn 2013 Wang Jing, a Chinese businesman operating a Hong Kong-based company called Hong Kong Nicaragua Development (HKND), secured a long-term lease from the Nicaraguan government for a 278-kilometer canal, over 3x the length of the Panama Canal (which is 82 km). Over 100 kilometers of that would be through Lake Nicaragua. The width and depth would allow larger ships than can pass through the Panama Canal. The cost was to be about USD 50 billion [over 5 years](https://lab.org.uk/nicaragua-pros-and-cons-of-the-interoceanic-canal/). The project ran into difficulties from the beginning. The proposed route was technically and environmentally challenging due to mountains and [fears of damage caused by dredging Lake Nicaragua](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-seven-points-nicaraguas-massive-canal-project). Concerns about involvement by the Chinese government arose because HKND [only had USD 200 million of known funding](http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/26/us-nicaragua-canal-idUSKBN0K410620141226) and Nicaragua had not yet switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. (Nicaragua did so in 2021.) In 2018 HKND closed its offices and the project appeared closed.\n\nIn November 2024 Daniel Ortega, President of Nicaragua, [presented a new route at the XVII China-LAC Business Summit](https://newsinamerica.com/en/headlinenews/2024/nicaragua-presents-its-new-interoceanic-canal-route-to-china-and-seeks-to-compete-with-panama/) This route is longer at 445 kilometers, but avoids Lake Nicargua. See image:\n\n\n\nThe project is estimated to cost USD 64.5 billion, according to Nicaraguan Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure Óscar Mojica.\n\nCompetition from the existing Panama Canal, which expanded its capacity from 2007 to 2016 at a cost of USD 6 billion, is a major concern, especially if the Panama Canal Authority elects to expand again. A second competitive factor is \"dry canals,\" which usually take the form of port-to-port rail or highway connections. One dry canal now exists, the Panama Canal Railway; [six others have been proposed](https://porteconomicsmanagement.org/pemp/contents/part1/interoceanic-passages/dry-canal-projects-central-america/), including one in Nicaragua.\n\nFor liquid cargo, potential competition comes from pipelines, including the existing [Trans-Panama Pipeline](https://www.gem.wiki/Trans-Panama_Pipeline), with oil throughput capacity of 860 thousand barrels per day, and the proposed [Trans-Panama Gateway Pipeline](https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/trans-panama-gateway-pipeline-project-proposed) for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if, prior to January 1, 2051, a transoceanic canal across Nicaragua is in operation. \"In operation\" means that, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), the entire canal is navigable by commercial freight vessels of at least [15,000 DWT (i.e., handysize)](https://shippingandcommodityacademy.com/blog/list-of-bulk-vessel-sizes-an-overview-of-maritime-freight-options/).\n\nResolves **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35019, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743649581.703955, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743649581.703955, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1684965408485059 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nicaragua was a serious contender for the project that later became the Panama Canal. Preliminary construction work on a canal across Nicaragua [began in 1890 but was suspended in 1893](https://porteconomicsmanagement.org/pemp/contents/part12/nicaragua-canal-project/). Decisive factors in Panama's favor included real estate costs and [fears of volcanism](https://blogs.loc.gov/maps/2017/11/the-elusive-nicaragua-canal/) from [Mount Momotombo](https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/momotombo.html). Interest in building a Nicaragua canal has waxed and waned since then ([72 attempts by one count!](http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2015/01/01/actualidad/1420148520_749810.html)).\n\nIn 2013 Wang Jing, a Chinese businesman operating a Hong Kong-based company called Hong Kong Nicaragua Development (HKND), secured a long-term lease from the Nicaraguan government for a 278-kilometer canal, over 3x the length of the Panama Canal (which is 82 km). Over 100 kilometers of that would be through Lake Nicaragua. The width and depth would allow larger ships than can pass through the Panama Canal. The cost was to be about USD 50 billion [over 5 years](https://lab.org.uk/nicaragua-pros-and-cons-of-the-interoceanic-canal/). The project ran into difficulties from the beginning. The proposed route was technically and environmentally challenging due to mountains and [fears of damage caused by dredging Lake Nicaragua](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-seven-points-nicaraguas-massive-canal-project). Concerns about involvement by the Chinese government arose because HKND [only had USD 200 million of known funding](http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/26/us-nicaragua-canal-idUSKBN0K410620141226) and Nicaragua had not yet switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. (Nicaragua did so in 2021.) In 2018 HKND closed its offices and the project appeared closed.\n\nIn November 2024 Daniel Ortega, President of Nicaragua, [presented a new route at the XVII China-LAC Business Summit](https://newsinamerica.com/en/headlinenews/2024/nicaragua-presents-its-new-interoceanic-canal-route-to-china-and-seeks-to-compete-with-panama/) This route is longer at 445 kilometers, but avoids Lake Nicargua. See image:\n\n\n\nThe project is estimated to cost USD 64.5 billion, according to Nicaraguan Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure Óscar Mojica.\n\nCompetition from the existing Panama Canal, which expanded its capacity from 2007 to 2016 at a cost of USD 6 billion, is a major concern, especially if the Panama Canal Authority elects to expand again. A second competitive factor is \"dry canals,\" which usually take the form of port-to-port rail or highway connections. One dry canal now exists, the Panama Canal Railway; [six others have been proposed](https://porteconomicsmanagement.org/pemp/contents/part1/interoceanic-passages/dry-canal-projects-central-america/), including one in Nicaragua.\n\nFor liquid cargo, potential competition comes from pipelines, including the existing [Trans-Panama Pipeline](https://www.gem.wiki/Trans-Panama_Pipeline), with oil throughput capacity of 860 thousand barrels per day, and the proposed [Trans-Panama Gateway Pipeline](https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/trans-panama-gateway-pipeline-project-proposed) for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)." }, { "id": 35015, "title": "Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-china-launch-an-antitrust-investigation-into-intel-before-april-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:43.260038Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.317693Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:47:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34501, "title": "Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:43.260038Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-14T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:49:14.915964Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump recently imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and eliminated the duty-free exemption for low-value packages, in accordance with his campaing promises. In response, China [filed a complain](https://www.reuters.com/world/china-challenges-trump-tariffs-wto-package-shippers-warn-chaos-2025-02-06/)t with the World Trade Organization, asserting that these U.S. actions are protectionist and violate WTO rules. [Furthermore](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj31l4p7vzo), China impemented various retaliatory measures, including\n\n* its own tariffs on American coal, LGN, agricultural machinery, and pick-up trucks\n* adding Calvin Klein to their \"unreliable entity\" list, accusing them of \"discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises\"\n* export controls on rare metals\n* reviving antitrust investigations against Google and Nvidia.\n\nAccording to the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/2ec45e79-9502-4ffd-82e8-888d9283c776), China regulators are also considering launching an investigation against Intel. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, China officially launches an antitrust investigation against Intel, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "The investigation has to be officially announced, for example via a State Administration for Market Regulation press release.", "post_id": 35015, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739550181.443284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.444 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739550181.443284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.444 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4690783863801143 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9926413276795596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5520276189696817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -22.702319630600357, "peer_score": 0.46772970931060287, "coverage": 0.9603184834805205, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9603184834805205, "spot_peer_score": 11.083194870051576, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": -22.702319630600357, "peer_archived_score": 0.46772970931060287, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.083194870051576, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump recently imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and eliminated the duty-free exemption for low-value packages, in accordance with his campaing promises. In response, China [filed a complain](https://www.reuters.com/world/china-challenges-trump-tariffs-wto-package-shippers-warn-chaos-2025-02-06/)t with the World Trade Organization, asserting that these U.S. actions are protectionist and violate WTO rules. [Furthermore](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj31l4p7vzo), China impemented various retaliatory measures, including\n\n* its own tariffs on American coal, LGN, agricultural machinery, and pick-up trucks\n* adding Calvin Klein to their \"unreliable entity\" list, accusing them of \"discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises\"\n* export controls on rare metals\n* reviving antitrust investigations against Google and Nvidia.\n\nAccording to the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/2ec45e79-9502-4ffd-82e8-888d9283c776), China regulators are also considering launching an investigation against Intel. " }, { "id": 35014, "title": "Will the US federal government be shutdown before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-federal-government-be-shutdown-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:43.237200Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.790821Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:45:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34500, "title": "Will the US federal government be shutdown before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:43.237200Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:47:13.415463Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Nerdwallet: Government Shutdown Averted in Last-Minute Flurry](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/government-shutdown-looms-yet-again-what-you-need-to-know) \"With the shutdown clock reset to March 14, the new Republican-led Congress must pass a spending bill for the fiscal year or another continuing resolution by then, or face another shutdown crisis.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, the United States federal government is in [shut down furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#url=Shutdown-Furlough) status, as announced by the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35014, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739513752.069548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739513752.069548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.4870527432017067 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1741106786487336, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -22.506105367948216, "peer_score": 2.090068618242946, "coverage": 0.8903278131860723, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8903278131860723, "spot_peer_score": 2.4735806206340407, "spot_baseline_score": 2.856915219677092, "baseline_archived_score": -22.506105367948216, "peer_archived_score": 2.090068618242946, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.4735806206340407, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 2.856915219677092 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Nerdwallet: Government Shutdown Averted in Last-Minute Flurry](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/government-shutdown-looms-yet-again-what-you-need-to-know) \"With the shutdown clock reset to March 14, the new Republican-led Congress must pass a spending bill for the fiscal year or another continuing resolution by then, or face another shutdown crisis.\"" }, { "id": 35013, "title": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through April 1, 2025, according to the specified criteria?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-world-remain-normal-through-april-1-2025-according-to-the-specified-criteria", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:43.217561Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.420420Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:32:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34499, "title": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through April 1, 2025, according to the specified criteria?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:43.217561Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T00:56:04.368207Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before April 1, 2025: - The **development of artificial general intelligence**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)* resolves to a date before the one listed above. - A **10% reduction in the human population**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/)* resolves as Yes before the one listed above. - Global **GDP increases by 30% or more in one year**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/)* resolves to a date before the one listed above. - The **discovery of alien technosignatures**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/)* resolves as Yes before the one listed above. - A **worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs** becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/)* resolves as **Yes** before the one listed above. - **World War III**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before the one listed above. - A **nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before the one listed above. This question will resolve as **No** (meaning this is no longer a \"normal\" world) if one or more of the above Metaculus questions has positively resolved before the date listed above.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35013, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739472931.878224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.994 ], "centers": [ 0.996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739472931.878224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.994 ], "centers": [ 0.996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0040000000000000036, 0.996 ], "means": [ 0.9957266747871097 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.890483735315604 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.4050801306941, "peer_score": 0.00909596437834032, "coverage": 0.8992364337303741, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8992364337303741, "spot_peer_score": 0.0003702291860010921, "spot_baseline_score": 99.42176474059939, "baseline_archived_score": 89.4050801306941, "peer_archived_score": 0.00909596437834032, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0003702291860010921, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 99.42176474059939 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050." }, { "id": 35012, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will China seize control of Second Thomas Shoal?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-april-1-2025-will-china-seize-control-of-second-thomas-shoal", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:43.194425Z", "published_at": "2025-02-11T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.255027Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-13T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-13T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:32:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-11T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34498, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will China seize control of Second Thomas Shoal?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:43.194425Z", "open_time": "2025-02-11T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-13T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-13T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T00:58:56.728168Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-13T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-13T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Navigating Turbulence at Second Thomas Shoal](https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/08/navigating-turbulence-at-second-thomas-shoal?lang=en) | Wikipedia: [Second Thomas Shoal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Thomas_Shoal)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, the US government or the Philippine government accuses the People's Republic of China of deploying military personnel at Second Thomas Shoal (also known as Ayungin Shoal) without the consent of the Philippine government.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35012, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739472262.001873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739472262.001873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.016944383025819524 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.1545159087025203, 2.620905078098474, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 86.28707691253746, "peer_score": 0.11226866912736398, "coverage": 0.8874903023864679, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8874903023864679, "spot_peer_score": -0.3373805541266658, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 86.28707691253746, "peer_archived_score": 0.11226866912736398, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.3373805541266658, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Navigating Turbulence at Second Thomas Shoal](https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/08/navigating-turbulence-at-second-thomas-shoal?lang=en) | Wikipedia: [Second Thomas Shoal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Thomas_Shoal)" } ] }
\n\nThe](http://image:%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5CnThe){kind=link}
