Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1500
{ "count": 5916, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1520", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1480", "results": [ { "id": 30678, "title": "Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥4 degrees F?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-average-daily-temperature-for-december-2024-recorded-by-the-barrowport-rogers-nws-weather-station-on-the-arctic-coast-of-alaska-exceed-the-1945-2023-average-for-december-by-4-degrees-f", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.940401Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.163938Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30444, "title": "Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥4 degrees F?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.940401Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T20:39:09.214256Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), \"The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ecosystems and the global climate system. It contributes to rising sea levels, and is likely to provoke extreme temperature events beyond the Arctic. The effects of a shifting Arctic climate are felt across the high latitudes and beyond – with global environmental, economic, and social implications.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers National Weather Service weather station in Alaska exceeds the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥4 degrees Fahrenheit. Specifically, it will be the figure for December 2024 under \"Average Daily Temperature (high+low)/2 [F]\" listed at [this webpage](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=PABR&network=AK_ASOS) by Iowa Environmental Mesonet.", "fine_print": "Please note that Iowa Environmental Mesonet is the only data provider that will be used for resolution. The specific link to the webpage within the resolution source's website is provided for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that page will be used for resolution.", "post_id": 30678, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325203.437445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325203.437445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.470579131182908 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30337741279819996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31967100989849384, 0.10829599059260063, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18755882158400378, 0.5546969869327895, 0.44816710576384877, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.34492309648022634, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0570414949661364, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14216557363665766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5116605421070124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284736, "baseline_score": 26.25814020819352, "peer_score": 16.721902996640544, "coverage": 0.9955055251745162, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9955055251745162, "spot_peer_score": 23.042735405037554, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284736, "baseline_archived_score": 26.25814020819352, "peer_archived_score": 16.721902996640544, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.042735405037554 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), \"The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ecosystems and the global climate system. It contributes to rising sea levels, and is likely to provoke extreme temperature events beyond the Arctic. The effects of a shifting Arctic climate are felt across the high latitudes and beyond – with global environmental, economic, and social implications.\"" }, { "id": 30677, "title": "Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-average-daily-temperature-for-december-2024-recorded-by-the-barrowport-rogers-nws-weather-station-on-the-arctic-coast-of-alaska-exceed-the-1945-2023-average-for-december", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.924034Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.355370Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30443, "title": "Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.924034Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:40:41.333993Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), \"The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ecosystems and the global climate system. It contributes to rising sea levels, and is likely to provoke extreme temperature events beyond the Arctic. The effects of a shifting Arctic climate are felt across the high latitudes and beyond – with global environmental, economic, and social implications.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers National Weather Service weather station in Alaska exceeds the 1945-2023 average for December. Specifically, it will be the figure for December 2024 under \"Average Daily Temperature (high+low)/2 [F]\" listed at [this webpage](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=PABR&network=AK_ASOS) by Iowa Environmental Mesonet.", "fine_print": "Please note that Iowa Environmental Mesonet is the only data provider that will be used for resolution. The specific link to the webpage within the resolution source's website is provided for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that page will be used for resolution.", "post_id": 30677, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325204.073761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7625000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325204.073761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7625000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.690420278920115 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6689277003844071, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.06275008396943872, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 2.52002770184382, 0.9268930712163701, 0.4087506853414205, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.15471204251345358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42559756640736046, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_score": 58.97557870016731, "peer_score": 12.761882017821415, "coverage": 0.9953170646533921, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9953170646533921, "spot_peer_score": 12.551320452914972, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 58.97557870016731, "peer_archived_score": 12.761882017821415, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.551320452914972 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/climate/), \"The temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at three times the global annual average, driving many of the changes underway in the Arctic. Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ecosystems and the global climate system. It contributes to rising sea levels, and is likely to provoke extreme temperature events beyond the Arctic. The effects of a shifting Arctic climate are felt across the high latitudes and beyond – with global environmental, economic, and social implications.\"" }, { "id": 30676, "title": "Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be less than -6?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-be-donald-trumps-net-favorability-rating-on-december-27-2024-be-less-than-6", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.907415Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.220171Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-29T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T20:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30442, "title": "Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be less than -6?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.907415Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-29T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T20:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-30T20:37:32.892187Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has increased from -8.6 on November 4, 2024 to -6 on November 21, the highest score of the previous 4 years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the net favorability rating of Donald Trump for December 27, 2024, is less than -6, as reported by 538 after that date. The resolution will be based on the already-calculated net rating presented on 538. A higher percentage for \"Unfavorable\" will result in a negative resolution. A higher percentage for \"Favorable\" means that this question will resolve as >0.", "fine_print": "If no value for December 27, 2024 has been published until January 7, 2025, the closest values will be used to resolve this question, provided that these are for any date after December 20, 2024 and before January 3, 2025.\r\n\r\nIn that case, the resolution will be calculated as follows: If there is one, unambiguous closest value (e.g., a value for December 26, 2024 is shown on the site but not one for December 28, 2024), the question will resolve as that. 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After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has increased from -8.6 on November 4, 2024 to -6 on November 21, the highest score of the previous 4 years." }, { "id": 30673, "title": "Will New Zealand report <275 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-new-zealand-report-275-whooping-cough-cases-for-weeks-51-and-52", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.657059Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.329357Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T10:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30439, "title": "Will New Zealand report <275 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.657059Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T10:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T10:25:59.292136Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of cases reported by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's Pertussis Dashboard for both weeks 51 and 52, when they are posted is under 275.", "fine_print": "- Week 51 ends on December 20, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on December 25, 2024. Week 52 ends on December 27, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on January 1, 2025.\r\n- This question will resolve on the first day after January 1, 2025 that data for both weeks are shown on the dashboard. Potential data revisions will not change the resolution. If the relevant numbers are not available on the dashboard before January 7, 2025, Admins may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), as long as their numbers are consistent with the dashboard's numbers.", "post_id": 30673, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325206.696248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19621029150724983 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325206.696248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19621029150724983 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.400603082206492 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7640856351447469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8477007947377986, 0.3857521552669111, 0.0, 0.0, 1.754073296158142, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 1.033269365342204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2526371569213358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.870228961685969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7335144723884806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_score": -23.54881874968442, "peer_score": 33.712275864500604, "coverage": 0.9946282170133459, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9946282170133459, "spot_peer_score": -20.10815663352855, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -23.54881874968442, "peer_archived_score": 33.712275864500604, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -20.10815663352855 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November." }, { "id": 30672, "title": "Will New Zealand report greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-new-zealand-report-greater-than-or-equal-to-275-and-less-than-or-equal-to-375-whooping-cough-cases-for-weeks-51-and-52", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.634839Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.466246Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T10:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30438, "title": "Will New Zealand report greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.634839Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T10:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T10:25:31.520390Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of cases reported by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's Pertussis Dashboard for both weeks 51 and 52, when they are posted is greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 .", "fine_print": "- Week 51 ends on December 20, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on December 25, 2024. Week 52 ends on December 27, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on January 1, 2025.\r\n- This question will resolve on the first day after January 1, 2025 that data for both weeks are shown on the dashboard. Potential data revisions will not change the resolution. If the relevant numbers are not available on the dashboard before January 7, 2025, Admins may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), as long as their numbers are consistent with the dashboard's numbers.", "post_id": 30672, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325207.313889, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3495698590408122 ], "centers": [ 0.4666666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325207.313889, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3495698590408122 ], "centers": [ 0.4666666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5333333333333334, 0.4666666666666666 ], "means": [ 0.4844555437135269 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.14516866866426206, 1.20606295296282, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26913803645995354, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 1.0959553750398965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9964795882629178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 9.310940439148176, "baseline_score": 7.7407866862734656, "peer_score": 9.606767278693207, "coverage": 0.9944775637625545, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9944775637625545, "spot_peer_score": 10.435289904231508, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 9.310940439148176, "baseline_archived_score": 7.7407866862734656, "peer_archived_score": 9.606767278693207, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.435289904231508 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November." }, { "id": 30671, "title": "Will New Zealand report >375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-new-zealand-report-375-whooping-cough-cases-for-weeks-51-and-52", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.611327Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.102764Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T10:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30437, "title": "Will New Zealand report >375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.611327Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T10:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T10:31:13.959778Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of cases reported by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's Pertussis Dashboard for both weeks 51 and 52, when they are posted exceeds 375.", "fine_print": "- Week 51 ends on December 20, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on December 25, 2024. Week 52 ends on December 27, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on January 1, 2025.\r\n- This question will resolve on the first day after January 1, 2025 that data for both weeks are shown on the dashboard. Potential data revisions will not change the resolution. If the relevant numbers are not available on the dashboard before January 7, 2025, Admins may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), as long as their numbers are consistent with the dashboard's numbers.", "post_id": 30671, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325207.921515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28920644568660586 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325207.921515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28920644568660586 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.568006987342848 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.15214964510304518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8593578957264911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9414809885774398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4998545367382436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9715769570268549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": -64.38561897747249, "baseline_score": -50.811054266139436, "peer_score": -9.053980874370302, "coverage": 0.9943107571756399, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9943107571756399, "spot_peer_score": -17.604493896825836, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -64.38561897747249, "baseline_archived_score": -50.811054266139436, "peer_archived_score": -9.053980874370302, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -17.604493896825836 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November." }, { "id": 30670, "title": "Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-ceasefire-between-israel-and-lebanonhezbollah-be-active-on-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.587713Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.018383Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T22:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-03T22:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30436, "title": "Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.587713Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-03T22:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-03T22:57:25.746170Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T22:43:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.\n\nOn November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a ceasefire or similar deal that involves the cessation of all military activity between Israel and Hezbollah is active on January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the latest reports from credible sources. If such reports indicate that a ceasefire remains in effect, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If the latest reports indicate that a ceasefire has been violated or is no longer effective as of the resolution date, this question will resolve as **No**. If it is unclear, according to the judgement of Metaculus admins, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 30670, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733259855.130971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733259855.130971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.47035685987043996 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.16099456957167682, 0.1932619357323092, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.794934730355242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9239896352751821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.\n\nOn November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal." }, { "id": 30669, "title": "Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-more-of-trumps-announced-cabinet-picks-drop-out-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.545631Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.208306Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30435, "title": "Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.545631Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:26:02.818474Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following his recent electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump has announced all 15 of the federal department heads and 5 more \"Cabinet-level\" officials. Matt Gaetz, who was initially nominated for Attorney General, [withdrew his nomination](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99r2m4y2zro) on November 21, 2024, amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Other nominees, such as [Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/25/nx-s1-5204486/president-elect-trump-reveals-more-people-he-wants-serving-in-his-cabinet) have also faced scrutiny due to various allegations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if after November 27, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, any announced Cabinet member or Cabinet-level official withdraws as a nominee, or Donald Trump or his transition team retracts any nomination.", "fine_print": "- The nomination need not have happened before this question opened. For example, a Cabinet nomination that is announced in December and withdrawn before 2025 would still resolve this question as **Yes**.\n- For purposes of this question we are defining Cabinet and Cabinet-level as the following 26 positions, and any withdrawal of a nomination for any of the positions will resolve this question as **Yes**:\n - Secretary of State\n - Secretary of the Treasury\n - Secretary of Defense\n - Attorney General\n - Secretary of the Interior\n - Secretary of Agriculture\n - Secretary of Commerce\n - Secretary of Labor\n - Secretary of Health and Human Services\n - Secretary of Housing and Urban Development\n - Secretary of Transportation\n - Secretary of Energy\n - Secretary of Education\n - Secretary of Veterans Affairs\n - Secretary of Homeland Security\n - White House Chief of Staff\n - Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency\n - Director of the Office of Management and Budget\n - Director of National Intelligence\n - Director of the Central Intelligence Agency\n - United States Trade Representative\n - Ambassador to the United Nations\n - Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers\n - Administrator of the Small Business Administration\n - Science Advisor to the President\n - Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy", "post_id": 30669, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325208.510548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2711199028127283 ], "centers": [ 0.5208333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325208.510548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2711199028127283 ], "centers": [ 0.5208333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47916666666666663, 0.5208333333333334 ], "means": [ 0.4979672264151998 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26077713707599026, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.5382239609984887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20819750915076435, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7449467310887843, 0.22042859672213486, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.527677027563428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.422250863460376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5885690464613618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 2.8789905696274833, "peer_score": -1.4688194238629981, "coverage": 0.9939348487500792, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9939348487500792, "spot_peer_score": -2.8606162154983, "spot_baseline_score": -6.140054466414342, "baseline_archived_score": 2.8789905696274833, "peer_archived_score": -1.4688194238629981, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.8606162154983, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -6.140054466414342 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following his recent electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump has announced all 15 of the federal department heads and 5 more \"Cabinet-level\" officials. Matt Gaetz, who was initially nominated for Attorney General, [withdrew his nomination](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99r2m4y2zro) on November 21, 2024, amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Other nominees, such as [Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/25/nx-s1-5204486/president-elect-trump-reveals-more-people-he-wants-serving-in-his-cabinet) have also faced scrutiny due to various allegations." }, { "id": 30651, "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Musk double the wealth of 2nd richest before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Musk double the wealth of 2nd richest before 2026?", "slug": "will-musk-double-the-wealth-of-2nd-richest-before-2026", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T05:53:02.565270Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T20:16:24.272556Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T00:14:41.141605Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-03T20:16:24.272554Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-02T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-04T20:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30419, "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T05:53:02.565653Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T20:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-08T20:16:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-08T20:16:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-02T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-02T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It is rare for the richest person or the richest family to double the wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates achieved this [in 1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#1999) when he reached $90 billion while Warren Buffett was at $36 billion, and was close [in 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001). The Walton family also achieved this in 1993 and 1994.\n\nAs of December 2, 2024 the net worth of the five richest individuals in the world is\n- Elon Musk: $353B\n- Jeff Bezos: $231B\n- Mark Zuckerberg: $210B\n- Larry Ellison: $198B\n- Bernard Arnault: $171B", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any single day after December 3, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, Elon Musk's net worth is equal to at least double the second richest person in the world, according to [Bloomberg's Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).", "fine_print": "In case Bloomberg's index is not available, Forbes [similar list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/) may be used.", "post_id": 30651, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757981670.36715, "end_time": 1758276056.745, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757981670.36715, "end_time": 1758276056.745, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.045116494760966894 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.5349439904343525, 3.079339155849753, 1.7324176604695132, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7635623052419608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 262, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It is rare for the richest person or the richest family to double the wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates achieved this [in 1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#1999) when he reached $90 billion while Warren Buffett was at $36 billion, and was close [in 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001). The Walton family also achieved this in 1993 and 1994.\n\nAs of December 2, 2024 the net worth of the five richest individuals in the world is\n- Elon Musk: $353B\n- Jeff Bezos: $231B\n- Mark Zuckerberg: $210B\n- Larry Ellison: $198B\n- Bernard Arnault: $171B" }, { "id": 30626, "title": "Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have under $4.3 trillion in U.S. treasury securities at the end of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-federal-reserves-balance-sheet-have-under-43-trillion-in-us-treasury-securities-at-the-end-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-02T14:08:52.571314Z", "published_at": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.496746Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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To access Nancy Pelosi's return go to Quiver Strategies [here](https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/). For total return, click 12 Months. The resolution value will be the Total Return displayed for the 12-month period. To find out the return of Berkshire Hathaway's A shares, go to Yahoo Finance [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRK-A/history/). 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