Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1520
{ "count": 6320, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1540", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1500", "results": [ { "id": 35011, "title": "Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-officially-announce-the-withdrawal-of-at-least-half-of-its-troops-out-of-syria-before-april-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:43.174127Z", "published_at": "2025-02-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.391555Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34497, "title": "Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:43.174127Z", "open_time": "2025-02-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-13T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:18:09.010052Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-13T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-13T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/dod-drafting-plans-withdraw-us-troops-syria-recent-trump-comments-rcna190726), the US Department of Defense is drafting plans for a full withdrawal of American troops from Syria following renewed interest from Donald Trump. The proposed withdrawal could occur within 30, 60, or 90 days, though officials emphasise that no final decision has been made. Trump had briefly removed US forces from Syria in the past, however he quickly reinstated them and as of early 2025, approximately 2,000 personnel are stationed there (1,100 troops as \"temporary rotational forces\" and 900 as \"core troops\"). The US military mission in Syria has been to counter ISIS and support local military groups, such as the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A withdrawal could jeopardize these efforts, particularly regarding the security of detention facilities housing thousands of ISIS fighters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, either of the following has happened:\n\n* the US has officially announced that a plan to withdraw at least half of the US troops stationed in Syria will be set in motion\n* such a withdrawal has already taken place, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* The \"at least half\" part of the resolution criteria could be resolved in various ways, including but not limited to an announcement that at least 1,000 troops will be withdrawn or a maximum of 1,000 troops will remain stationed there, or an announcement that all temporary rotation forces will be withdrawn.\n* For this question to resolve as **Yes** via an announcement, it will have to be an official announcement (e.g., via a DoD press briefing, an Executive Order, or CENTCOM official communications) and it will have to imply that a specific plan has been created and the decision to implement it has been made. Vague announcements of intent will not suffice.\n* For purposes of this question, the number of US troops in Syria is assumed to be 2,000. In cases in which the denominator is announced to be different from 2,000, the one-half threshold will be adjusted accordingly.", "post_id": 35011, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739462220.256591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739462220.256591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5282138223616986 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7261382976184153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -56.40876259648896, "peer_score": -5.589919660878318, "coverage": 0.9134072743873207, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9134072743873207, "spot_peer_score": -9.99663721092496, "spot_baseline_score": -25.153876699596427, "baseline_archived_score": -56.40876259648896, "peer_archived_score": -5.589919660878318, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -9.99663721092496, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.153876699596427 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/dod-drafting-plans-withdraw-us-troops-syria-recent-trump-comments-rcna190726), the US Department of Defense is drafting plans for a full withdrawal of American troops from Syria following renewed interest from Donald Trump. The proposed withdrawal could occur within 30, 60, or 90 days, though officials emphasise that no final decision has been made. Trump had briefly removed US forces from Syria in the past, however he quickly reinstated them and as of early 2025, approximately 2,000 personnel are stationed there (1,100 troops as \"temporary rotational forces\" and 900 as \"core troops\"). The US military mission in Syria has been to counter ISIS and support local military groups, such as the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A withdrawal could jeopardize these efforts, particularly regarding the security of detention facilities housing thousands of ISIS fighters." }, { "id": 35009, "title": "Will Sam Altman's net worth exceed $1.3 billion on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Altman net worth Mar 31 2025?", "url_title": "Altman net worth Mar 31 2025?", "slug": "altman-net-worth-mar-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:42.828374Z", "published_at": "2025-02-10T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.621197Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T11:16:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34495, "title": "Will Sam Altman's net worth exceed $1.3 billion on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:42.828374Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T11:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T11:18:06.479519Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 25, 2025, Altman's net worth was listed as $1.1 billion, according to Forbes.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to his [Forbes Profile](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-altman/) Sam Altman's net worth is higher than $1.3 billion on March 31, 2025. For purposes of this question, this is defined as $1.4 billion or higher (no rounding), according to that specific resolution link. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable on March 31, 2025, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until April 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). For purposes of this question, \"higher than \\$1.3 billion\" is defined as \\$1.4 billion or higher. 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this question and before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-visit-el-salvador-after-the-launch-of-this-question-and-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:42.807472Z", "published_at": "2025-02-10T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.595696Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34494, "title": "Will Donald Trump visit El Salvador after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:20:42.807472Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:15:42.534583Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, 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In response, China [filed a complain](https://www.reuters.com/world/china-challenges-trump-tariffs-wto-package-shippers-warn-chaos-2025-02-06/)t with the World Trade Organization, asserting that these U.S. actions are protectionist and violate WTO rules. [Furthermore](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj31l4p7vzo), China impemented various retaliatory measures, including\n\n* its own tariffs on American coal, LGN, agricultural machinery, and pick-up trucks\n* adding Calvin Klein to their \"unreliable entity\" list, accusing them of \"discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises\"\n* export controls on rare metals\n* reviving antitrust investigations against Google and Nvidia.\n\nAccording to the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/2ec45e79-9502-4ffd-82e8-888d9283c776), China regulators are also considering launching an investigation against Intel. 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Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before April 1, 2025: - The **development of artificial general intelligence**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)* resolves to a date before the one listed above. - A **10% reduction in the human population**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/)* resolves as Yes before the one listed above. - Global **GDP increases by 30% or more in one year**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/)* resolves to a date before the one listed above. - The **discovery of alien technosignatures**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/)* resolves as Yes before the one listed above. - A **worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs** becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/)* resolves as **Yes** before the one listed above. - **World War III**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before the one listed above. - A **nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before the one listed above. 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Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050." }, { "id": 34978, "title": "Will the United States impose any new tariffs on Colombia before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-united-states-impose-any-new-tariffs-on-colombia-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:11.138891Z", "published_at": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.053553Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T22:46:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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The proposed withdrawal could occur within 30, 60, or 90 days, though officials emphasise that no final decision has been made. Trump had briefly removed US forces from Syria in the past, however he quickly reinstated them and as of early 2025, approximately 2,000 personnel are stationed there (1,100 troops as \"temporary rotational forces\" and 900 as \"core troops\"). The US military mission in Syria has been to counter ISIS and support local military groups, such as the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A withdrawal could jeopardize these efforts, particularly regarding the security of detention facilities housing thousands of ISIS fighters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, either of the following has happened:\n\n* the US has officially announced that a plan to withdraw at least half of the US troops stationed in Syria will be set in motion\n* such a withdrawal has already taken place, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* The \"at least half\" part of the resolution criteria could be resolved in various ways, including but not limited to an announcement that at least 1,000 troops will be withdrawn or a maximum of 1,000 troops will remain stationed there, or an announcement that all temporary rotation forces will be withdrawn.\n* For this question to resolve as **Yes** via an announcement, it will have to be an official announcement (e.g., via a DoD press briefing, an Executive Order, or CENTCOM official communications) and it will have to imply that a specific plan has been created and the decision to implement it has been made. 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