Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1520
{ "count": 5917, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1540", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1500", "results": [ { "id": 30618, "title": "Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat Berkshire Hathaway in 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nancy-pelosis-stock-portfolio-beat-berkshire-hathaway-in-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-02T14:08:51.860132Z", "published_at": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.140317Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30388, "title": "Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat Berkshire Hathaway in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-02T14:08:51.860132Z", "open_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T02:09:41.057613Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Benzinga: [Edward Snowden Contrasts Warren Buffett's Investment Skills with Nancy Pelosi, Dan Meuser: 'Fortunate to Be Represented by Extraordinary Talents](https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/03/38016319/edward-snowden-contrasts-warren-buffetts-investment-skills-with-nancy-pelosi-dan-meuser-fortunate-to)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after the close of trading on the final trading day of December 2024, the 12-month total return of Nancy Pelosi's portfolio as reported by Quiver Quantitative exceeds the 12-month return of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s A shares as reported by Yahoo Finance. To access Nancy Pelosi's return go to Quiver Strategies [here](https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/). For total return, click 12 Months. The resolution value will be the Total Return displayed for the 12-month period. To find out the return of Berkshire Hathaway's A shares, go to Yahoo Finance [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRK-A/history/). Divide the closing price of the stock on the final trading day of December by the \"Adj Close\" price shown for December 29, 2023, then subtract 1 and multiply by 100%.", "fine_print": "Please note that the Quiver number used for resolution is not the CAGR value, which is the compound annual growth rate since Quiver Quantitative's Backtest Start Date", "post_id": 30618, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733233133.559451, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3068799444517583 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.624 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733233133.559451, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3068799444517583 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.624 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5111670864535351 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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12.256429125998443, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 13.316483520569937, "peer_archived_score": 11.870863824638464, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.256429125998443 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Benzinga: [Edward Snowden Contrasts Warren Buffett's Investment Skills with Nancy Pelosi, Dan Meuser: 'Fortunate to Be Represented by Extraordinary Talents](https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/03/38016319/edward-snowden-contrasts-warren-buffetts-investment-skills-with-nancy-pelosi-dan-meuser-fortunate-to)" }, { "id": 30617, "title": "Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥175,000 for November 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bls-report-an-increase-in-nonfarm-payroll-numbers-of-175000-for-november-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-02T14:08:51.845434Z", "published_at": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.371561Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T13:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30387, "title": "Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥175,000 for November 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-02T14:08:51.845434Z", "open_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T13:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T13:51:45.541854Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): \"The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors?\r\n\r\n\"The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports in its preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number for November 2024 a change in total nonfarm payroll employment that is an increase of greater than or equal to 175,000.", "fine_print": "The BLS [expects](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) to release this number on December 6, 2024. Later revisions will not affect resolution.", "post_id": 30617, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733233147.586898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6610608137862047 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733233147.586898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6610608137862047 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.39, 0.61 ], "means": [ 0.5422679633769751 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3263146315335535, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 1.8221090288438686, 0.8305036517217669, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1403842715634909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05979005729068558, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11486889005002407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 22.98727328344611, "peer_score": 33.14070047866311, "coverage": 0.9868815350228989, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9868815350228989, "spot_peer_score": 29.445524763564187, "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 22.98727328344611, "peer_archived_score": 33.14070047866311, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.445524763564187, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): \"The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors?\r\n\r\n\"The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month.\"" }, { "id": 30616, "title": "Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥75,000 for November 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bls-report-an-increase-in-nonfarm-payroll-numbers-of-75000-for-november-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-02T14:08:51.830904Z", "published_at": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.293653Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T13:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30386, "title": "Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥75,000 for November 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-02T14:08:51.830904Z", "open_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T13:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T13:51:31.804500Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): \"The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors?\r\n\r\n\"The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports in its preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number for November 2024 a change in total nonfarm payroll employment that is an increase of greater than or equal to 75,000.", "fine_print": "The BLS [expects](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) to release this number on December 6, 2024. Later revisions will not affect resolution.", "post_id": 30616, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733233161.060298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733233161.060298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7011113758905322 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 1.3364148858342282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9432637166484202, 0.0, 0.8270297608486038, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.39756239304771235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 1.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3365759934939532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.914529127107331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12966433094557198, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 52.363477550507554, "peer_score": 13.571393220355299, "coverage": 0.9861491646755625, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9861491646755625, "spot_peer_score": 11.980755927412835, "spot_baseline_score": 54.59683691052925, "baseline_archived_score": 52.363477550507554, "peer_archived_score": 13.571393220355299, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.980755927412835, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 54.59683691052925 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): \"The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors?\r\n\r\n\"The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month.\"" }, { "id": 30615, "title": "Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers for November 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bls-report-an-increase-in-nonfarm-payroll-numbers-for-november-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-02T14:08:51.796329Z", "published_at": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.594860Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T13:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30385, "title": "Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers for November 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-02T14:08:51.796329Z", "open_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T13:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T13:51:21.356198Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): \"The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors?\r\n\r\n\"The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports in its preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number for November 2024 a change in total nonfarm payroll employment that is greater than or equal to zero.", "fine_print": "The BLS [expects](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) to release this number on December 6, 2024. Later revisions will not affect resolution.", "post_id": 30615, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733233174.494292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733233174.494292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.7670902215710876 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.17630000022929448, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25190162765868773, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.34988143369277447, 0.2581744010322857, 0.7080777250383146, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.920712447504523, 1.0315454926338852, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16446375510732802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 65.64243364877959, "peer_score": 2.3234847974959467, "coverage": 0.9861447140160534, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9861447140160534, "spot_peer_score": 2.428416845899433, "spot_baseline_score": 65.99245584023782, "baseline_archived_score": 65.64243364877959, "peer_archived_score": 2.3234847974959467, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.428416845899433, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 65.99245584023782 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): \"The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors?\r\n\r\n\"The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month.\"" }, { "id": 30593, "title": "Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?", "short_title": "Lebanese President elected January 9, 2025?", "url_title": "Lebanese President elected January 9, 2025?", "slug": "lebanese-president-elected-january-9-2025", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-01T17:42:32.480437Z", "published_at": "2024-12-18T01:32:44.417880Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.090965Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-18T01:32:44.417878Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-10T03:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-19T01:31:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30371, "title": "Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-01T17:42:32.480806Z", "open_time": "2024-12-19T01:31:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-23T01:31:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-23T01:31:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-10T03:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T10:01:39.735160Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lebanese politics works on a [confessional basis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taif_Agreement), where legislative seats and executive positions are allocated to various ethnoreligious groups. The Presidency is always held by a Maronite Christian; however, the country's volatile political and military landscape has often made the election less than smooth.\n\nIt took six months to elect a President in [2007-08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Lebanese_presidential_election) and 2.5 years in [2014-16](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–2016_Lebanese_presidential_election). The six-year term of the President eventually elected in that process, Michel Aoun, ended in October 2022. Several attempts to elect a successor have failed to reach a quorum, as a majority of Lebanon's 128 MPs is required for election.\n\nIn the wake of the ceasefire between Israel and the militia/party Hezbollah, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has [called a new vote](https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1437340/berri-sets-jan-9-as-date-for-parliamentary-session-to-elect-president.html) for January 9, 2025. Will the country succeed in breaking the deadlock and electing a President?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the January 9, 2025 session of the Parliament of Lebanon elects a President, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If the vote is not held before January 11, 2025, or if it fails to elect a President for any reason (e.g. lack of quorum), the question resolves as **No**. It is immaterial who the newly-elected President is or whether they maintain the norm of the President being a Maronite. Any proclamations of someone being President will not count unless they have won the vote of a majority of Members of Parliament.", "post_id": 30593, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735315133.942831, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735315133.942831, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.30478606054045826 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -55.23846997651173, "peer_score": -9.856706879537011, "coverage": 0.9140756603571663, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9140756603571663, "spot_peer_score": 2.258095811690651, "spot_baseline_score": -20.091269392599642, "baseline_archived_score": -55.23846997651173, "peer_archived_score": -9.856706879537011, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.258095811690651, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -20.091269392599642 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lebanese politics works on a [confessional basis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taif_Agreement), where legislative seats and executive positions are allocated to various ethnoreligious groups. The Presidency is always held by a Maronite Christian; however, the country's volatile political and military landscape has often made the election less than smooth.\n\nIt took six months to elect a President in [2007-08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Lebanese_presidential_election) and 2.5 years in [2014-16](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–2016_Lebanese_presidential_election). The six-year term of the President eventually elected in that process, Michel Aoun, ended in October 2022. Several attempts to elect a successor have failed to reach a quorum, as a majority of Lebanon's 128 MPs is required for election.\n\nIn the wake of the ceasefire between Israel and the militia/party Hezbollah, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has [called a new vote](https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1437340/berri-sets-jan-9-as-date-for-parliamentary-session-to-elect-president.html) for January 9, 2025. Will the country succeed in breaking the deadlock and electing a President?" }, { "id": 30583, "title": "Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?", "short_title": "Heat Wave Kills at Least One Million Before 2050?", "url_title": "Heat Wave Kills at Least One Million Before 2050?", "slug": "heat-wave-kills-at-least-one-million-before-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-29T22:22:04.558358Z", "published_at": "2024-12-09T15:05:13.538095Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T22:31:14.154715Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-09T15:05:13.538093Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-10T15:04:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30355, "title": "Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?", "created_at": "2024-11-29T22:22:04.558804Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T15:04:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T15:04:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T15:04:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In his 2020 science fiction novel *[The Ministry for the Future](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future)*, author Kim Stanley Robinson describes a deadly heat wave in India that kills 20 million people. In [an interview](https://slate.com/technology/2021/08/ministry-for-the-future-first-chapter-kim-stanley-robinson-interview.html), Robinson described his motivation as follows:\n\n>In 2018, I read some articles in the scientific literature describing the danger to human bodies of “wet-bulb 35” temperatures, that being an index of high heat and high humidity in combination. High-enough combinations can be fatal for people unprotected by air conditioning, which isn’t always available. Such heat waves were already happening, and were sure to become more frequent and more long-lasting.\n> \n>This finding put new urgency into humanity’s need to decarbonize as fast as possible. People arguing that we could just adapt to any rise in global average temperature had missed a crucial fact. To me this news seemed like something that needed to be pointed out in a vivid way. Thus the beginning of my book.\n\n[Other](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-65299807) [reporting](https://slate.com/technology/2021/07/climate-change-wet-bulb-temperature.html) and [opinion pieces](https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/3/27/extreme-heat-is-the-silent-assassin-of-climate-change) have taken the threat of deadlier heat waves seriously due to climate change, though 20 million deaths in a short span would be orders of magnitude larger than has been previously reported.\n\nWhile a heat wave with that many deaths is speculative, climate change has made future heat waves likelier. [According to a Vox article on the subject](https://www.vox.com/22538401/texas-heat-wave-weather-definition-record-temperature-climate-change):\n\n>The key metric here is known as the wet-bulb temperature, where a thermometer is wrapped in a damp cloth, revealing the lowest temperature achievable by evaporative cooling (i.e., sweating) under a given set of heat and humidity conditions. The upper limit wet-bulb temperature for human survival is 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius), during which even standing in the shade with unlimited water can be life-threatening.\n> \n>Since 1979, these dangerous conditions have become twice as common in several regions of the world, including South Asia and the Persian Gulf, researchers [found](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838) in 2020. They warned that further warming this century could render many of the most densely populated parts of the world uninhabitable during the hottest times of year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2050, one million deaths have occurred in the span of 30 days or less that credible sources have reported to be due to a heat wave. Metaculus may wait up to two years after a potentially qualifying heat wave for investigations and reporting to complete in order to assess whether a heat wave killed at least one million people, and that two year period may extend past the resolution date, if necessary.", "fine_print": "* The deaths must be a direct result of excessive heat acting on humans. Indirect effects, such as fires, violent conflict, or famine, do not count.\n* If reporting on deaths is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of initial reporting is in doubt.", "post_id": 30583, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757889063.131175, "end_time": 1785477845.344, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757889063.131175, "end_time": 1785477845.344, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.40281437325677066 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.10527918291777463, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.2111618384611672, 0.0, 0.08955766284396574, 0.3763735752682617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.6051422742458719, 0.7208415606416156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9243230331922829 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In his 2020 science fiction novel *[The Ministry for the Future](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future)*, author Kim Stanley Robinson describes a deadly heat wave in India that kills 20 million people. In [an interview](https://slate.com/technology/2021/08/ministry-for-the-future-first-chapter-kim-stanley-robinson-interview.html), Robinson described his motivation as follows:\n\n>In 2018, I read some articles in the scientific literature describing the danger to human bodies of “wet-bulb 35” temperatures, that being an index of high heat and high humidity in combination. High-enough combinations can be fatal for people unprotected by air conditioning, which isn’t always available. Such heat waves were already happening, and were sure to become more frequent and more long-lasting.\n> \n>This finding put new urgency into humanity’s need to decarbonize as fast as possible. People arguing that we could just adapt to any rise in global average temperature had missed a crucial fact. To me this news seemed like something that needed to be pointed out in a vivid way. Thus the beginning of my book.\n\n[Other](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-65299807) [reporting](https://slate.com/technology/2021/07/climate-change-wet-bulb-temperature.html) and [opinion pieces](https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/3/27/extreme-heat-is-the-silent-assassin-of-climate-change) have taken the threat of deadlier heat waves seriously due to climate change, though 20 million deaths in a short span would be orders of magnitude larger than has been previously reported.\n\nWhile a heat wave with that many deaths is speculative, climate change has made future heat waves likelier. [According to a Vox article on the subject](https://www.vox.com/22538401/texas-heat-wave-weather-definition-record-temperature-climate-change):\n\n>The key metric here is known as the wet-bulb temperature, where a thermometer is wrapped in a damp cloth, revealing the lowest temperature achievable by evaporative cooling (i.e., sweating) under a given set of heat and humidity conditions. The upper limit wet-bulb temperature for human survival is 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius), during which even standing in the shade with unlimited water can be life-threatening.\n> \n>Since 1979, these dangerous conditions have become twice as common in several regions of the world, including South Asia and the Persian Gulf, researchers [found](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838) in 2020. They warned that further warming this century could render many of the most densely populated parts of the world uninhabitable during the hottest times of year." }, { "id": 30580, "title": "Will Tesla increase its quarterly vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024 on a year-over-year basis?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tesla-increase-its-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries-in-q4-2024-on-a-year-over-year-basis", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:12.090377Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.808142Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30353, "title": "Will Tesla increase its quarterly vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024 on a year-over-year basis?", "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:12.090377Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T23:27:37.807105Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 484,507 vehicles delivered for the fourth quarter of 2024. If it reports deliveries of 484,507 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected January 2, 2025. If Tesla does not report these numbers before January 16, 2025, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 30580, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732978015.230351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39885850028002906 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732978015.230351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39885850028002906 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6196763517544039 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9100808516300489, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32454920696835854, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.6960576051643198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.421288254383246, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0698855521116863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6562642058017948, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.9594208793536987, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 38.09426472886052, "peer_score": 12.726521713013579, "coverage": 0.997535912035792, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.997535912035792, "spot_peer_score": 10.95652914073258, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 38.09426472886052, "peer_archived_score": 12.726521713013579, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.95652914073258, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024." }, { "id": 30579, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?", "short_title": "End of year passenger volume up 2024?", "url_title": "End of year passenger volume up 2024?", "slug": "end-of-year-passenger-volume-up-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.909260Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.400346Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:29:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30352, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?", "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.909260Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T23:31:41.911897Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "2023 was the [busiest travel year ever](https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/2023-numbers-more-flights-fewer-cancellations-more-consumer-protections), with very low cancellation rates, from a historical perspective.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 to December 31, 2024 exceeds the 7-day period from December 25, 2023 to December 31, 2023. The resolution source is the TSA checkpoint travel numbers, which can be found at [this link](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes) for 2024. The archived 2023 TSA passenger volume numbers can be found [here](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes/2023).\n\nThe 7 days from December 25, 2023, through December 31, 2023, had total daily passenger numbers summing up to 17,307,363. Therefore, this question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the period of December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 exceeds 17,307,363 and resolves as **No** if it is less than or equal to 17,307,363.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the data is posted and accessed by Metaculus Admins. However, if there are delays then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30579, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732978015.895725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8022999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732978015.895725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8022999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.1977000000000001, 0.8022999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.7969649308788396 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "2023 was the [busiest travel year ever](https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/2023-numbers-more-flights-fewer-cancellations-more-consumer-protections), with very low cancellation rates, from a historical perspective." }, { "id": 30578, "title": "Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on December 20, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-median-person-on-bloombergs-billionaires-index-be-from-the-united-states-on-december-20-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.896237Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.966124Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T21:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30351, "title": "Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on December 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.896237Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T21:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-20T22:01:06.394583Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Nomember 22, 2024, of the 10 individuals ranked 246-255 on Bloomberg's list, 6 were from the United States. On the entire list, 190 out of 500 indivduals were from the United States.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 250th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) is listed as being from the United States, when accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after December 20, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading). It resolves as **No** if the 250th-ranked person is from any other country.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the \"median\" from the question's title is defined as the 250th ranked person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, no matter how many are on the list.\n\nIf the list contains fewer than 250 people on the resolution date, this question will be resolved as the last person on the list. If it contains more than 500 people, the median will still be considered the 250th. If it contains 251-499 people, the median will still be considered the 250th ranked.\n\nIf Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). 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On the entire list, 190 out of 500 indivduals were from the United States." }, { "id": 30577, "title": "Will marijuana still be listed as a US Schedule I controlled substance on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-marijuana-still-be-listed-as-a-us-schedule-i-controlled-substance-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.882955Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.131086Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30350, "title": "Will marijuana still be listed as a US Schedule I controlled substance on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.882955Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:52:16.904320Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/): \n\n>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) signed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in the Federal Register. This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, on December 31, 2024, marijuana is listed as a schedule I drug in the US according to Wikipedia's list, which can be currently accessed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Schedule_I_controlled_substances_(U.S.)). If marijuana is not on the list, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome. 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This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.\n" }, { "id": 30576, "title": "Will SpaceX fail to make any new posts on its Updates page before January 1, 2025? 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", "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.867100Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:23:11.091881Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of November 22, 2024, SpaceX's most recent post was timestamped September 10, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if no new posts appear at SpaceX's Updates page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.spacex.com/updates/), timestamped after the close of this question and before January 1, 2025. If there is such a post, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.", "post_id": 30576, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732978018.057835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.408 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732978018.057835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.408 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.725, 0.275 ], "means": [ 0.3105410024741498 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.87337965761525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2398926763954295, 0.18526809390665838, 0.44071068269949837, 0.20410203261308407, 0.21228082485103633, 0.7942422980859573, 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null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The last time this occured was in December 2017, when the lowest temperature recorded in the Chicago weather station during the month was -3 F, while the lowest recorded at the Anchorage weather station was 5 F. It almost occurred in December 2022, when Chicago recorded -9 F on December 23rd; however, Anchorage reached -12 on December 20th. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the lowest temperature at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport weather station, reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PANC&network=AK_ASOS) for the month of December 2024, is lower than the lowest temperature at the Chicago, IL Midway Airport weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MDW&network=IL_ASOS) for the month.", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendars posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. 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It almost occurred in December 2022, when Chicago recorded -9 F on December 23rd; however, Anchorage reached -12 on December 20th. 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