Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1540
{ "count": 6320, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1560", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1520", "results": [ { "id": 34967, "title": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on March 31, 2025, according to Forbes?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elon-musk-be-the-richest-person-in-the-world-on-march-31-2025-according-to-forbes", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:10.353107Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.706464Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T18:38:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34453, "title": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on March 31, 2025, according to Forbes?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:10.353107Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T18:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T18:40:30.971088Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Marketwatch: [Elon Musk’s wealth just crossed $400 billion — now he can say he’s Rockefeller rich](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musks-wealth-just-crossed-400-billion-hes-now-rockefeller-richest-in-gdp-terms-8832162c)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Elon Musk is in first place on March 31, 2025. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If there is a tie, this resolves as **No**. If the resolution source is unavailable when Metaculus Admins attempt to access it, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until April 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 34967, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739389247.308875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7070000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739389247.308875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7070000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7821507030766515 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.6701049752490269, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5463161282567017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0519074730082156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6082551002884056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.06414156534256711, 2.6098630492064037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.10874699370748123, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.18490429064961, "peer_score": -0.04593373918992105, "coverage": 0.9491920455296836, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9491920455296836, "spot_peer_score": -3.768068319482292, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 61.18490429064961, "peer_archived_score": -0.04593373918992105, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.768068319482292, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Marketwatch: [Elon Musk’s wealth just crossed $400 billion — now he can say he’s Rockefeller rich](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musks-wealth-just-crossed-400-billion-hes-now-rockefeller-richest-in-gdp-terms-8832162c)" }, { "id": 34966, "title": "Will Sam Altman's net worth exceed $1.3 billion on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-sam-altmans-net-worth-exceed-13-billion-on-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-on-march-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:10.320977Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.957927Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T11:18:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34452, "title": "Will Sam Altman's net worth exceed $1.3 billion on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:10.320977Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T11:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T11:18:26.096906Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 25, 2025, Altman's net worth was listed as $1.1 billion, according to Forbes.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to his [Forbes Profile](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-altman/) Sam Altman's net worth is higher than $1.3 billion on March 31, 2025. For purposes of this question, this is defined as $1.4 billion or higher (no rounding), according to that specific resolution link. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable on March 31, 2025, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until April 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 34966, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739390229.714213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739390229.714213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3254288657142339 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5545959546836902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.86210616496753, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 1.683198607477082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 1.4143582333138216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6529915075505347, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -73.00839370577148, "peer_score": -0.15046507405244092, "coverage": 0.9547945408026376, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9547945408026376, "spot_peer_score": 1.6033485973319914, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "baseline_archived_score": -73.00839370577148, "peer_archived_score": -0.15046507405244092, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.6033485973319914, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 25, 2025, Altman's net worth was listed as $1.1 billion, according to Forbes." }, { "id": 34965, "title": "Will Warren Buffett be ranked in the top 5 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-warren-buffett-be-ranked-in-the-top-5-of-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-on-march-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:10.006317Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.720652Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T18:36:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable on March 31, 2025, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until April 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**. 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To access the status page, go [here](https://icis.corp.delaware.gov/ecorp/entitysearch/NameSearch.aspx) and do a search for file number 5902936. 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As of 2020 it comprises about 80% of the U.S. market capitalization of stocks.\"" }, { "id": 34946, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall by UP Products, LLC, DBA Meyer Wholesale of Ready-To-Eat and Raw Sausage Products issued January 13, 2025 be closed before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Ready-To-Eat and Raw Sausage Products", "url_title": "Ready-To-Eat and Raw Sausage Products", "slug": "ready-to-eat-and-raw-sausage-products", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:08.468894Z", "published_at": "2025-02-10T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.520493Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-10T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-10T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T21:44:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34432, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall by UP Products, LLC, DBA Meyer Wholesale of Ready-To-Eat and Raw Sausage Products issued January 13, 2025 be closed before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:08.468894Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-10T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-10T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T21:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T21:45:31.828442Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-10T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-10T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.85, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[USDA Food Recalls: What You Need to Know](https://www.fda.gov/food/buy-store-serve-safe-food/food-recalls-what-you-need-know)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/products-llc-dba-meyer-wholesale-recalls-ready-eat-and-raw-sausage-products-due) is accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34946, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739166908.946581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.738 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739166908.946581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.738 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6066821873965234 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4337156834996016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.102045464591304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4297767463922022, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7981634066101351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.8887950311919696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5214928995079964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 36.86854079625566, "peer_score": 5.487686641069286, "coverage": 0.905070053603914, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.905070053603914, "spot_peer_score": 2.7844195874881366, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 36.86854079625566, "peer_archived_score": 5.487686641069286, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.7844195874881366, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[USDA Food Recalls: What You Need to Know](https://www.fda.gov/food/buy-store-serve-safe-food/food-recalls-what-you-need-know)" }, { "id": 34937, "title": "Will the body of water currently called the \"Gulf of Mexico\" on the National Map be renamed the \"Gulf of America\" before March 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-body-of-water-currently-called-the-gulf-of-mexico-on-the-national-map-be-renamed-the-gulf-of-america-before-march-1-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:07.573439Z", "published_at": "2025-02-09T00:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.513382Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-09T01:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-09T01:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-14T17:53:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-09T00:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34423, "title": "Will the body of water currently called the \"Gulf of Mexico\" on the National Map be renamed the \"Gulf of America\" before March 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:07.573439Z", "open_time": "2025-02-09T00:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-09T01:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-09T01:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-14T17:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-14T18:02:02.194365Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-09T01:47:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-09T01:47:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Donald Trump's executive order [Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-01-31/pdf/2025-02096.pdf) signed January 20, 2025: \n\n> The area formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico has long been an integral asset to our once burgeoning Nation and has remained an indelible part of America. \\[...] The Gulf will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping America’s future and the global economy, and in recognition of this flourishing economic resource and its critical importance to our Nation’s economy and its people, I am directing that it officially be renamed the Gulf of America.\n\nAdditionally: \n\n> As such, within 30 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Interior shall, consistent with 43 U.S.C. 364 through 364f, take all appropriate actions to rename as the ‘‘Gulf of America’’ the U.S. Continental Shelf area bounded on the northeast, north, and northwest by the States of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida and extending to the seaward boundary with Mexico and Cuba in the area formerly named as the Gulf of Mexico. The Secretary shall subsequently update the GNIS to reflect the renaming of the Gulf and remove all references to the Gulf of Mexico from the GNIS, consistent with applicable law. The Board shall provide guidance to ensure all federal references to the Gulf of America, including on agency maps, contracts, and other documents and communica- tions shall reflect its renaming.\n\nThe National Map at nationalmap.gov is \"a collaborative effort among the USGS and other Federal, State, and local partners to improve and deliver topographic information for the Nation. It has many uses ranging from recreation to scientific analysis to emergency response.\"\n\nAs of February 1, 2025, it had the body of water west of Florida, south of Louisiana, and north of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula still labelled as the Gulf of Mexico on the National Map:\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the [National Map](https://apps.nationalmap.gov/viewer/) refers to the body of water west of Florida, south of Louisiana, and north of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula as the Gulf of America before March 1, 2025. If it is not referred to as the Gulf of America on that date, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If there is no name at all on the body of water, this resolves as **No**. For this to count, it must be called the Gulf of America on the National Map. If multiple names are used (e.g., \"Gulf of America formerly known as Gulf of Mexico\"), it will count as long as Gulf of America is one of the names.", "post_id": 34937, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739065465.173875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739065465.173875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.33793377870318325 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.5965892957781368, 1.340480546600963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41336531919859754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -59.01005043622656, "peer_score": 1.8361517728658963, "coverage": 0.9527088750070994, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9527088750070994, "spot_peer_score": -8.82661156572802, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "baseline_archived_score": -59.01005043622656, "peer_archived_score": 1.8361517728658963, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.82661156572802, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Donald Trump's executive order [Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-01-31/pdf/2025-02096.pdf) signed January 20, 2025: \n\n> The area formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico has long been an integral asset to our once burgeoning Nation and has remained an indelible part of America. \\[...] The Gulf will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping America’s future and the global economy, and in recognition of this flourishing economic resource and its critical importance to our Nation’s economy and its people, I am directing that it officially be renamed the Gulf of America.\n\nAdditionally: \n\n> As such, within 30 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Interior shall, consistent with 43 U.S.C. 364 through 364f, take all appropriate actions to rename as the ‘‘Gulf of America’’ the U.S. Continental Shelf area bounded on the northeast, north, and northwest by the States of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida and extending to the seaward boundary with Mexico and Cuba in the area formerly named as the Gulf of Mexico. The Secretary shall subsequently update the GNIS to reflect the renaming of the Gulf and remove all references to the Gulf of Mexico from the GNIS, consistent with applicable law. The Board shall provide guidance to ensure all federal references to the Gulf of America, including on agency maps, contracts, and other documents and communica- tions shall reflect its renaming.\n\nThe National Map at nationalmap.gov is \"a collaborative effort among the USGS and other Federal, State, and local partners to improve and deliver topographic information for the Nation. It has many uses ranging from recreation to scientific analysis to emergency response.\"\n\nAs of February 1, 2025, it had the body of water west of Florida, south of Louisiana, and north of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula still labelled as the Gulf of Mexico on the National Map:\n\n" }, { "id": 34885, "title": "Will President Trump issue a new presidential action delaying or revoking the tariffs on Canada before March 4, 2025?", "short_title": "President Trump Delays Tariffs on Canada March 2025?", "url_title": "President Trump Delays Tariffs on Canada March 2025?", "slug": "president-trump-delays-tariffs-on-canada-march-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-07T22:35:42.748790Z", "published_at": "2025-02-10T13:49:14.176314Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.543295Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-10T13:49:14.176312Z", "comment_count": 121, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-04T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-03T17:40:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 775, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34371, "title": "Will President Trump issue a new presidential action delaying or revoking the tariffs on Canada before March 4, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-07T22:35:42.749169Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-04T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-03T17:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-03T17:51:23.946802Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nOn February 1, 2025, United States President Donald Trump [published an executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-national-border/) that would implement tariffs of 25% on most imports from Canada, with an effective date of February 4, 2025. On February 3, Trump [delayed the tariffs for one month](https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-sheinbaum-trudeau-017efa8c3343b8d2a9444f7e65356ae9) after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau [announced border security steps](https://x.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1886529228193022429) that Canada would take. The [executive order published on that date](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/progress-on-the-situation-at-our-northern-border/) delays the implementation of the tariffs until March 4, 2025, at 12:01 AM Eastern Time.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after February 10, 2025, and before 12:01 AM Eastern Time on March 4, 2025, the Trump administration has published a new [presidential action](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) that further delays, for any amount of time, or revokes any part of the tariffs on Canada described in the [February 1, 2025, executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-national-border/) and the [later executive order delaying the tariffs published on February 3, 2025](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/progress-on-the-situation-at-our-northern-border/).", "fine_print": "* To count, the presidential action must be published and publicly accessible (likely appearing on the [presidential actions section of the White House website](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/)) before the specified time. A verbal statement or other written announcement besides a presidential action (for example a post on social media), is not sufficient.\n* In the event the timing of the publication of the presidential action is uncertain such that it is unclear from the document itself and the website on which it is hosted whether the presidential action was published before the date and time described, Metaculus will rely on reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to determine if the presidential action was published prior to the deadline.\n* If the tariff rate changes without any part of the tariffs being delayed or revoked, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 34885, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741017576.452309, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 770, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741017576.452309, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 770, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.33146198215165756 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.0138518235237113, 0.23494296362781486, 0.6655157890888783, 0.1251955274118014, 0.0017567245651549767, 2.1127668318304096, 0.19383254856032192, 1.4688176687910559e-06, 0.9250129272475693, 1.2390711373651175, 1.228903443901003, 0.02198635700477531, 0.6998488160445845, 1.3110456094356944, 1.6396694562727419, 2.5233877602040473, 0.4402140721197775, 0.005133294906736438, 0.45569789331963184, 1.9602351555778275, 4.951488161980761, 1.0715167812800717, 0.04864061461660559, 1.068391029507537, 1.5676713034401457, 3.061016058802728, 0.09355596011277079, 0.0421891185045581, 0.5395164933044836, 0.37678086632234314, 2.2553651845777503, 0.008769093264039723, 0.15572561169877724, 0.6086358276421301, 0.5588252761998753, 0.8874032169905695, 0.16455979166986545, 0.5793406262378447, 0.0605361470931532, 0.5042833628672336, 0.5835003340080456, 0.058052388373141466, 0.36797897695356135, 0.07147854715748503, 0.08881273800350103, 1.0686644304890187, 0.03277567987532237, 0.0, 0.19519735864586574, 0.0, 3.3091967005473437, 0.5459517977790693, 0.004591871747240224, 1.1113879870799028, 0.0004885543887719017, 1.0287109435755533, 6.817431929029092e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04679816781763571, 0.31130114711034207, 0.11851311917748113, 0.14111585583382236, 0.07285430662916703, 0.08249574487683965, 0.5793800368729772, 0.641798261879739, 0.008217834082310192, 0.0004346482681608538, 0.0009969659069900658, 0.06406246977017858, 0.0002566592817001894, 0.023553190774010985, 0.0009775780860364716, 0.0007078198876748771, 0.09887229703548714, 6.966720331287452e-06, 0.0010001954130520621, 0.0009468130317288092, 0.0003132099159133423, 0.07058175533876862, 0.00035634234383156136, 0.7802072763546285, 0.0005703044032117339, 2.731505145010825e-07, 0.003751110392983005, 0.0005007919019704161, 1.8558050502745158e-05, 0.00016686348317772798, 2.4819438021914262e-06, 0.8994861715136512, 1.1074705902468252e-06, 0.00023961849163824718, 1.340276667132146e-05, 0.5687479834070258, 0.5283786017087636, 4.047841619821708e-06, 4.564895997674397e-09, 2.2118586674552584e-05, 3.082521902126094 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3011, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nOn February 1, 2025, United States President Donald Trump [published an executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-national-border/) that would implement tariffs of 25% on most imports from Canada, with an effective date of February 4, 2025. On February 3, Trump [delayed the tariffs for one month](https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-sheinbaum-trudeau-017efa8c3343b8d2a9444f7e65356ae9) after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau [announced border security steps](https://x.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1886529228193022429) that Canada would take. The [executive order published on that date](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/progress-on-the-situation-at-our-northern-border/) delays the implementation of the tariffs until March 4, 2025, at 12:01 AM Eastern Time." }, { "id": 34880, "title": "Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "US tariffs against the EU before Apr 7, 2025?", "url_title": "US tariffs against the EU before Apr 7, 2025?", "slug": "us-tariffs-against-the-eu-before-apr-7-2025", "author_id": 144022, "author_username": "Langley", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-07T11:32:12.051842Z", "published_at": "2025-02-14T16:27:59.930845Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.526848Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-14T16:27:59.930843Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-17T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-17T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-23T03:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 123, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34368, "title": "Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-07T11:32:12.052181Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-23T03:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-23T03:18:01.275067Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-17T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-17T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The new US administration under President Donald J. Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\n\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\n\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any new US tariffs that apply to imports from all EU member states take effect and stay in effect for at least seven days before April 7, 2025, according to official [White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/) or EU press releases, or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* Any tariff that was not in effect on February 14, 2025 counts.\n* The whole EU has to be targeted by tariffs. If at least one EU member state is not included, this question will *not* resolve as **Yes**. The tariffs can target other states besides EU members.\n* The tariff rate or tariff scope (i.e. which industries are being targetted) is immaterial to the question resolution. If tariffs are postponed after they took effect or canceled after being in effect (even for a short time), the question will still resolve positively.\n* The tariffs have to be in effect for a total of seven days. If they come into effect, are paused, and then resume, the total number of days will be used to resolve this question.", "post_id": 34880, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742223029.686132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742223029.686132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8507908777913331 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0011160507165339513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5028188102394395, 0.0067236276057129835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003140657611517779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009104928146014851, 0.5919456382250862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009400929107262819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015905270898504797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020448973309364713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017751730710432278, 0.010033693009389048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008246561353721116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1555629139392006, 0.0023430504572772284, 0.0026718728115051014, 0.00022855231852052916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006050930535116419, 0.017363302970072207, 0.013441174075732547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015317656631140828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18795762859096504, 0.00745418629536983, 0.032323983287814724, 0.0038668375211360234, 0.003033740382392937, 0.42122163158758874, 0.012904395453384723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3637055472990403, 0.08633762966036213, 0.039143517677046796, 0.05299036975659428, 0.774770903305717, 1.429260426968114, 0.149460018767886, 0.6648259212438545, 1.3958102898459095, 0.053358560127498456, 2.7336254579481123, 0.005432350986704414, 0.4125824348004209, 1.1531331053890514, 0.0, 2.8979111403339974, 0.0, 0.7326215666034533, 0.00486434593115337, 2.1314812825797387 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 60.22308792510807, "peer_score": 34.4150392382152, "coverage": 0.9999704488650082, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999704488650082, "spot_peer_score": 64.18115367865333, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 60.22308792510807, "peer_archived_score": 34.4150392382152, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 64.18115367865333, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 580, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The new US administration under President Donald J. Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\n\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\n\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025." }, { "id": 34861, "title": "Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?", "short_title": "China launch antitrust probe into Intel before April, 2025?", "url_title": "China launch antitrust probe into Intel before April, 2025?", "slug": "china-launch-antitrust-probe-into-intel-before-april-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-06T22:14:07.670965Z", "published_at": "2025-02-07T20:53:29.760347Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.534959Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-07T20:53:29.760345Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T13:13:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34355, "title": "Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-06T22:14:07.671289Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-14T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T13:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T13:18:34.982142Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump recently imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and eliminated the duty-free exemption for low-value packages, in accordance with his campaing promises. In response, China [filed a complain](https://www.reuters.com/world/china-challenges-trump-tariffs-wto-package-shippers-warn-chaos-2025-02-06/)t with the World Trade Organization, asserting that these U.S. actions are protectionist and violate WTO rules. [Furthermore](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj31l4p7vzo), China impemented various retaliatory measures, including\n\n* its own tariffs on American coal, LGN, agricultural machinery, and pick-up trucks\n* adding Calvin Klein to their \"unreliable entity\" list, accusing them of \"discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises\"\n* export controls on rare metals\n* reviving antitrust investigations against Google and Nvidia.\n\nAccording to the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/2ec45e79-9502-4ffd-82e8-888d9283c776), China regulators are also considering launching an investigation against Intel. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, China officially launches an antitrust investigation against Intel, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "The investigation has to be officially announced, for example via a State Administration for Market Regulation press release.", "post_id": 34861, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742035302.059665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742035302.059665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.09121515565419361 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3325260650968211, 0.06805199387035807, 0.0, 0.9918505804877169, 0.0, 3.539853473510945, 0.4273870684649609, 0.20862122528853305, 0.4960965120584363, 0.0, 0.7826455428194593, 0.4606527189387643, 2.106661631180699, 0.3669337095617011, 0.9020255976048709, 0.023714766002371646, 0.35220571788468746, 0.7616925955377141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10143319196692772, 0.0, 0.10248909557192279, 0.0, 0.0052619857942816685, 0.1226831864486109, 0.0391375041447012, 0.0, 0.06539894301875605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015287348614981507, 0.0, 0.06993066952741968, 0.0, 0.06449755079812586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013286097205509028, 0.006513847192233464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023132514010442214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030705460506385295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01550349210722101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011295907652000815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.156971511813055, "peer_score": 9.180441895883293, "coverage": 0.9984540010362837, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9984540010362837, "spot_peer_score": 13.83557497582167, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 51.156971511813055, "peer_archived_score": 9.180441895883293, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.83557497582167, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 542, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump recently imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and eliminated the duty-free exemption for low-value packages, in accordance with his campaing promises. In response, China [filed a complain](https://www.reuters.com/world/china-challenges-trump-tariffs-wto-package-shippers-warn-chaos-2025-02-06/)t with the World Trade Organization, asserting that these U.S. actions are protectionist and violate WTO rules. [Furthermore](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj31l4p7vzo), China impemented various retaliatory measures, including\n\n* its own tariffs on American coal, LGN, agricultural machinery, and pick-up trucks\n* adding Calvin Klein to their \"unreliable entity\" list, accusing them of \"discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises\"\n* export controls on rare metals\n* reviving antitrust investigations against Google and Nvidia.\n\nAccording to the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/2ec45e79-9502-4ffd-82e8-888d9283c776), China regulators are also considering launching an investigation against Intel. " }, { "id": 34853, "title": "Will any coding tool publicly introduce integration with brain-computer interface (BCI) technology by December 15, 2025?", "short_title": "BCI Coding by December'25", "url_title": "BCI Coding by December'25", "slug": "bci-coding-by-december25", "author_id": 230867, "author_username": "ilia.zaharov", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-06T13:23:27.617075Z", "published_at": "2025-02-06T13:23:55.808978Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:22:44.750542Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-06T13:23:55.808976Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-10T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-14T13:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32556, "name": "JetBrains", "type": "community", "slug": "jetbrains", "description": "### **UPDATE August 7, 2025**\r\n\r\n### We’re preparing to relaunch this tournament with improved questions that more directly address the underlying research goals and bring greater clarity to these important topics. Please hold off on making further forecasts until further notice. If you're among the current forecasters, we’ll be in touch directly.\r\n\r\n\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\r\n\r\n**JetBrains** is a cutting-edge software vendor specializing in the creation of intelligent tools for developers. This JetBrains community in Metaculus is created for AI in Software Development 2025 Tournament. \r\n\r\n*The questions for the tournament were prepared by JetBrains Research team.*\r\n\r\n\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\r\n\r\n**Prize Pool — \\$3,000**\r\n\r\n**To be eligible for the \\$3000 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must participate in the online survey prepared by our research team.** \r\n\r\nThe link to the survey is [here](https://surveys.jetbrains.com/s3/HAX-Forecasting-Challenge \"AI in SWD survey\") (it will take just 5 minutes of your time).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 12, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 230867, "username": "ilia.zaharov", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32556, "name": "JetBrains", "type": "community", "slug": "jetbrains", "description": "### **UPDATE August 7, 2025**\r\n\r\n### We’re preparing to relaunch this tournament with improved questions that more directly address the underlying research goals and bring greater clarity to these important topics. Please hold off on making further forecasts until further notice. If you're among the current forecasters, we’ll be in touch directly.\r\n\r\n\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\r\n\r\n**JetBrains** is a cutting-edge software vendor specializing in the creation of intelligent tools for developers. This JetBrains community in Metaculus is created for AI in Software Development 2025 Tournament. \r\n\r\n*The questions for the tournament were prepared by JetBrains Research team.*\r\n\r\n\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\\_\r\n\r\n**Prize Pool — \\$3,000**\r\n\r\n**To be eligible for the \\$3000 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must participate in the online survey prepared by our research team.** \r\n\r\nThe link to the survey is [here](https://surveys.jetbrains.com/s3/HAX-Forecasting-Challenge \"AI in SWD survey\") (it will take just 5 minutes of your time).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 12, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 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