Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1560
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2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-28T14:55:57.935508Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T14:55:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-03T14:55:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-03T14:55:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-21T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, 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"id": 124392, "username": "brennannrobbins", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32557, "name": "Macro Models", "type": "community", "slug": "macromodels", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 124392, "username": "brennannrobbins", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30335, "title": "In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?", "created_at": "2024-11-28T14:51:37.336331Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T14:51:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-03T14:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-03T14:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-20T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-strait_relations", "resolution_criteria": "News reports from the NYT.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30559, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732992219.340473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732992219.340473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, 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false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-29T14:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32557, "name": "Macro Models", "type": "community", "slug": "macromodels", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 124392, "username": "brennannrobbins", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32557, "name": "Macro Models", "type": "community", "slug": "macromodels", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": 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538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if JD Vance's favorability rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/jd-vance/) is greater than or equal to 39.0% on December 30, 2024. 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December 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:55.225839Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T16:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T16:41:29.649913Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Kamala Harris's approval rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/) is greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024. 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538, its approval tracker is \"An updating calculation of the president's approval rating, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Joe Biden's approval rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) is greater than or equal to 38.5% on December 30, 2024. 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"title": "Will the CDC report less than 50 cases of H5N1 in persons tested in the United States before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:55.023194Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T19:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-29T19:29:57.816016Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to CDC at the resolution source, \"Several recent A(H5) cases have been reported in the U.S. The CDC has been unable to isolate the virus from the recent human cases. As a result, CDC has been unable to determine the virus's neuraminidase subtype or whether it is likely an N1.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the CDC reports on its website less than 50 human cases of H5N1 in the United States before January 1, 2025, according to its most recently updated publicly-accessible figures. If CDC reports a number of H5N1 cases in the US that is greater than or equal to 50, this question resolves as **No**. At the time of this question, the most recent figure is posted [here](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/php/avian-flu-summary/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html(.", "fine_print": "Please note that the cases must specifically be H5N1 in order to count. Human cases reported by CDC to be H5 that are not listed as the subtype H5N1 will not count.", "post_id": 30539, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732805044.307434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1800583935099759 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732805044.307434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1800583935099759 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.16410690820341092 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6130471785584402, 3.086710393895705, 0.49792822064913145, 0.0, 0.4953774992691955, 1.0747625814662487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6006479073973886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to CDC at the resolution source, \"Several recent A(H5) cases have been reported in the U.S. The CDC has been unable to isolate the virus from the recent human cases. As a result, CDC has been unable to determine the virus's neuraminidase subtype or whether it is likely an N1.\"" }, { "id": 30538, "title": "Will the lowest temperature recorded in Anchorage, Alaska during the entire month of December 2024 be lower than the lowest temperature recorded in Chicago, IL for the month?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-lowest-temperature-recorded-in-anchorage-alaska-during-the-entire-month-of-december-2024-be-lower-than-the-lowest-temperature-recorded-in-chicago-il-for-the-month", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.990486Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.960932Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30318, "title": "Will the lowest temperature recorded in Anchorage, Alaska during the entire month of December 2024 be lower than the lowest temperature recorded in Chicago, IL for the month?", "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.990486Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T20:22:23.602996Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The last time this occured was in December 2017, when the lowest temperature recorded in the Chicago weather station during the month was -3 F, while the lowest recorded at the Anchorage weather station was 5 F. It almost occurred in December 2022, when Chicago recorded -9 F on December 23rd; however, Anchorage reached -12 on December 20th. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the lowest temperature at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport weather station, reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PANC&network=AK_ASOS) for the month of December 2024, exceeds the lowest temperature at the Chicago, IL Midway Airport weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MDW&network=IL_ASOS) for the month.", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendars posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30538, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732805045.068453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.40066666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.6659537063936952 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732805045.068453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.40066666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.6659537063936952 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3340462936063048, 0.6659537063936952 ], "means": [ 0.6186576225657181 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.06953376465286171, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9238200452096865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8383501420032302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 1.041612515980416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09283202621282585, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.6343394661133029, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 1.6221476987420265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -70.8932401655569, "peer_score": -20.482827300488758, "coverage": 0.9871466504865222, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9871466504865222, "spot_peer_score": -6.552524145423197, "spot_baseline_score": -58.188004330129786, "baseline_archived_score": -70.8932401655569, "peer_archived_score": -20.482827300488758, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.552524145423197, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -58.188004330129786 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The last time this occured was in December 2017, when the lowest temperature recorded in the Chicago weather station during the month was -3 F, while the lowest recorded at the Anchorage weather station was 5 F. It almost occurred in December 2022, when Chicago recorded -9 F on December 23rd; however, Anchorage reached -12 on December 20th. 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", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendars posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30537, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732805045.774854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732805045.774854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6397800523538932 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44433735784817074, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 1.0, 0.0, 0.1710855545910285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30316, "title": "Will Calin Georgescu win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?", "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.926873Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T19:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T19:38:12.632875Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5283, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/romanian-election-winner-2024/) didn't make it to the second round. The winner of the first round, Calin Georgescu, is titled by [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-election-stunner-who-is-calin-georgescu-marcel-ciolacu/), an ultranationalist far-right candidate. The other candidate, Elena Lasconi, is the leader of the progressive USR party.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if Calin Georgescu wins the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania, based on the official website of the President of Romania or reports by credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30536, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732805046.432685, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3651 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732805046.432685, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3651 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3946608832781668 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4249377485786018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.8215443845241794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.8305036517217669, 1.0707361550246768, 0.0, 0.0, 1.305243599422533, 0.0, 1.2266367396170965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.931273105636328, 0.0, 0.44208209430197104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.08754374207256055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16523072905535055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/romanian-election-winner-2024/) didn't make it to the second round. The winner of the first round, Calin Georgescu, is titled by [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-election-stunner-who-is-calin-georgescu-marcel-ciolacu/), an ultranationalist far-right candidate. The other candidate, Elena Lasconi, is the leader of the progressive USR party." }, { "id": 30535, "title": "Will Elena Lasconi win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elena-lasconi-win-the-second-round-of-the-2024-presidential-election-in-romania", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.871699Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.008213Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T19:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30315, "title": "Will Elena Lasconi win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?", "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.871699Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T19:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T19:38:31.473454Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5283, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/romanian-election-winner-2024/) didn't make it to the second round. The winner of the first round, Calin Georgescu, is titled by [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-election-stunner-who-is-calin-georgescu-marcel-ciolacu/), an ultranationalist far-right candidate. The other candidate, Elena Lasconi, is the leader of the progressive USR party.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if Elena Lasconi wins the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania, based on the official website of the President of Romania or reports by credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30535, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732805047.058694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36588136706792 ], "centers": [ 0.424 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732805047.058694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36588136706792 ], "centers": [ 0.424 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5760000000000001, 0.424 ], "means": [ 0.44751030701315536 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24946699768446445, 0.4087506853414205, 1.2030052409478724, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.7786046040762578, 0.0, 0.5260311109720331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.692838069357762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2695393015506253, 0.0, 1.0907795394398383, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.38213595752647456, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/romanian-election-winner-2024/) didn't make it to the second round. The winner of the first round, Calin Georgescu, is titled by [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-election-stunner-who-is-calin-georgescu-marcel-ciolacu/), an ultranationalist far-right candidate. The other candidate, Elena Lasconi, is the leader of the progressive USR party." }, { "id": 30517, "title": "Will New Delhi experience a \"Hazardous\" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?", "short_title": "New Delhi Hazardous AQI for 1/3 of Dec 2024's last 2 weeks?", "url_title": "New Delhi Hazardous AQI for 1/3 of Dec 2024's last 2 weeks?", "slug": "new-delhi-hazardous-aqi-for-13-of-dec-2024s-last-2-weeks", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T19:57:13.265691Z", "published_at": "2024-12-05T06:27:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.202379Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-05T06:27:35Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-20T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T22:30:00Z", "open_time": 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30301, "title": "Will New Delhi experience a \"Hazardous\" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T19:57:13.266062Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T22:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T00:08:13.141238Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-25T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-20T22:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Airnow](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/):\n\n>The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is EPA's tool for communicating about outdoor air quality and health. The AQI includes six color-coded categories, each corresponding to a range of index values. The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n>EPA establishes an AQI for five major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act. Each of these pollutants has a national air quality standard set by EPA to protect public health:\n\n> - ground-level ozone\n> - particle pollution (also known as particulate matter, including PM2.5 and PM10)\n> - carbon monoxide\n> - sulfur dioxide\n> - nitrogen dioxide\n\nOn November 21, 2024, CNN [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/20/india/delhi-pollution-clinic-smog-climate-intl-hnk/index.html) that New Delhi had the most hazardous air for human health in the world, leading the Delhi Chief Minister to declare a \"medical emergency\" as authorities closed schools and urged people to stay home. On November 20, 2024 the reading for PM2.5, which has been linked to asthma, heart and lung disease, cancer, and cognitive impairment in children, was more than 77 times higher than safe levels set by the WHO.\n\nAt the time of this question, in 2024 year to date 6% of hours have had an AQI classified as Hazardous, 12% of hours have been Very Unhealthy, and 33% Unhealthy. To access the data for 2024 and previous years from 2015 through the present day, please go [here](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) and click on the Historical tab.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 1/3 of the hourly values reported by [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) for the dates December 16, 2024 to December 29, 2024 inclusive are categorized as having a \"Hazardous\" air quality index (AQI). If less than 1/3 of the hourly values are categorized as \"Hazardous\" air quality, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "- The dates and times for this question will be the dates and times reported by AirNow. No adjustments based on timezones will be made.\n- If AirNow data are not available before January 7, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n- Data can be accessed under the \"Historical\" tab at the resolution source.", "post_id": 30517, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735123733.728039, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735123733.728039, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9945124693942622 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012926585093015749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002647192416789941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006021606162473711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0090705904541796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015204078447885579, 0.014526211535013312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007454186295369823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02368489080579067, 0.0017494230548454617, 0.020560827046404485, 0.017741576519297485, 0.0, 0.04478739497884664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8705419053678669, 12.156493899267126 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 13.299422162000692, "peer_score": 10.757869281296074, "coverage": 0.7579220134026438, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998825395472191, "spot_peer_score": 37.84857801792196, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 13.299422162000692, "peer_archived_score": 10.757869281296074, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.84857801792196, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 174, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Airnow](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/):\n\n>The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is EPA's tool for communicating about outdoor air quality and health. The AQI includes six color-coded categories, each corresponding to a range of index values. The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n>EPA establishes an AQI for five major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act. Each of these pollutants has a national air quality standard set by EPA to protect public health:\n\n> - ground-level ozone\n> - particle pollution (also known as particulate matter, including PM2.5 and PM10)\n> - carbon monoxide\n> - sulfur dioxide\n> - nitrogen dioxide\n\nOn November 21, 2024, CNN [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/20/india/delhi-pollution-clinic-smog-climate-intl-hnk/index.html) that New Delhi had the most hazardous air for human health in the world, leading the Delhi Chief Minister to declare a \"medical emergency\" as authorities closed schools and urged people to stay home. On November 20, 2024 the reading for PM2.5, which has been linked to asthma, heart and lung disease, cancer, and cognitive impairment in children, was more than 77 times higher than safe levels set by the WHO.\n\nAt the time of this question, in 2024 year to date 6% of hours have had an AQI classified as Hazardous, 12% of hours have been Very Unhealthy, and 33% Unhealthy. To access the data for 2024 and previous years from 2015 through the present day, please go [here](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) and click on the Historical tab." }, { "id": 30516, "title": "Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will any Cabinet pick drop out before January 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will any Cabinet pick drop out before January 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-any-cabinet-pick-drop-out-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T19:19:11.577604Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T19:16:02.876588Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.972771Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-29T19:16:02.876585Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 124, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30300, "title": "Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T19:19:11.577981Z", "open_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T12:42:05.405836Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following his recent electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump has announced all 15 of the federal department heads and 5 more \"Cabinet-level\" officials. Matt Gaetz, who was initially nominated for Attorney General, [withdrew his nomination](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99r2m4y2zro) on November 21, 2024, amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Other nominees, such as [Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/25/nx-s1-5204486/president-elect-trump-reveals-more-people-he-wants-serving-in-his-cabinet) have also faced scrutiny due to various allegations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if after November 27, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, any announced Cabinet member or Cabinet-level official withdraws as a nominee, or Donald Trump or his transition team retracts any nomination.", "fine_print": "- The nomination need not have happened before this question opened. For example, a Cabinet nomination that is announced in December and withdrawn before 2025 would still resolve this question as **Yes**.\n- For purposes of this question we are defining Cabinet and Cabinet-level as the following 26 positions, and any withdrawal of a nomination for any of the positions will resolve this question as **Yes**:\n - Secretary of State\n - Secretary of the Treasury\n - Secretary of Defense\n - Attorney General\n - Secretary of the Interior\n - Secretary of Agriculture\n - Secretary of Commerce\n - Secretary of Labor\n - Secretary of Health and Human Services\n - Secretary of Housing and Urban Development\n - Secretary of Transportation\n - Secretary of Energy\n - Secretary of Education\n - Secretary of Veterans Affairs\n - Secretary of Homeland Security\n - White House Chief of Staff\n - Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency\n - Director of the Office of Management and Budget\n - Director of National Intelligence\n - Director of the Central Intelligence Agency\n - United States Trade Representative\n - Ambassador to the United Nations\n - Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers\n - Administrator of the Small Business Administration\n - Science Advisor to the President\n - Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy", "post_id": 30516, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735630138.511081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735630138.511081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.993, 0.007 ], "means": [ 0.02127587350913931 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.351634852667855, 3.905454555673633, 2.001980208953535, 0.0545307742321855, 0.6424730077707153, 1.22806540450875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06645972874479679, 0.08287920050020464, 0.0, 0.4666587103556457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2775175051207561, 0.0, 0.001293184550844436, 0.0003552051306226385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007335136410451107, 0.0, 0.002397315038413529, 0.00669000914231432, 0.0, 0.01044791386579032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01343969933406002, 0.014666479319743405, 0.02330574774021839, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009583214515414912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008778492387587688, 0.00012614338989262936, 0.008030243059253494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017115864019928928, 0.0, 0.028179110061319578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005970060355477253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009184470551277978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003339650608864187, 0.005025223583386938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001072021815824502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009797596903721127, 0.018975159275697692, 0.0, 0.0021341984025259253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029982420348446974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00625288369450655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011286268412260569, 0.0, 0.002199170494439083 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.42137445512348, "peer_score": 40.05954743539748, "coverage": 0.9998817307895945, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998817307895945, "spot_peer_score": -14.368558064598513, "spot_baseline_score": -83.65012677171204, "baseline_archived_score": 18.42137445512348, "peer_archived_score": 40.05954743539748, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -14.368558064598513, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -83.65012677171204 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 716, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following his recent electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump has announced all 15 of the federal department heads and 5 more \"Cabinet-level\" officials. Matt Gaetz, who was initially nominated for Attorney General, [withdrew his nomination](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99r2m4y2zro) on November 21, 2024, amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Other nominees, such as [Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/25/nx-s1-5204486/president-elect-trump-reveals-more-people-he-wants-serving-in-his-cabinet) have also faced scrutiny due to various allegations." }, { "id": 28868, "title": "Will any part of Belarus be annexed or otherwise joined to the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-part-of-belarus-be-annexed-or-otherwise-joined-to-the-russian-federation-by-the-end-of-2030", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:45:40.964502Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.837469Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 37657, "title": "Will any part of Belarus be annexed or otherwise joined to the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:45:40.964502Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Belarus has been called the last European dictatorship for many years, and has been ruled by President [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) since 1994. In 2020, presidential elections were held that were considered by most actors to be [rigged](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53721410), and the elections were followed by the largest [protests](https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/13/belarus-unprecedented-crackdown) in the country's modern history. However, despite this resistance from a part of society, Belarus is fully under the control of President Lukashenko. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, some [Russian](https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2022/10/whats-behind-russias-new-deployment-of-troops-to-belarus?lang=en) units were deployed on the territory of Belarus, but Belarus itself did not directly enter the war in Ukraine.\n\n Between 1995 and 1999, Boris Yeltsin and Alexander Lukashenko signed a series of treaties, creating the so-called [Union of Belarus and Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State). In principle, it was an attempt to create a common state/union that would be interconnected on a military, economic and/or political level (although Belarus would retain its autonomy). However, this project quickly lost momentum and in reality there is not much left of it, but formally both countries are part of this union state. In February 2023, a strategy for the accession of Belarus to Russia was leaked from Vladimir Putin's presidential office, which envisages the gradual absorption of the country through a number of different paths and instruments, available for example [here](https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html).", "resolution_criteria": "We will evaluate the question positively either in the case of annexation of part or all of Belarus OR in the case of Belarus becoming de facto part of Russia. We will assess this according to the following criteria (or others if uncertainty persists):\n\n a) Sufficient evidence of complete control over Belarusian security forces (e.g. Belarusian units led by Russian officers, ...)\n\n b) Complete control over the political institutions of Belarus (e.g. Russian politicians in the Belarusian parliament) or the transfer of political powers to Russian institutions.\n\n c) Evidence of systematic replacement of Belarusian identification documents (passports, ID cards, ...) with Russian ones.\n\n d) Russian control over the Belarusian Central Bank or transfer of its competences to the Russian Central Bank.\n\n At least two of the conditions above must be met for a question to be evaluated positively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28868, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756974312.61439, "end_time": 1759560941.233, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756974312.61439, "end_time": 1759560941.233, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2520728157612783 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0680105702489033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.417246872565798, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8869956802241439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Belarus has been called the last European dictatorship for many years, and has been ruled by President [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) since 1994. In 2020, presidential elections were held that were considered by most actors to be [rigged](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53721410), and the elections were followed by the largest [protests](https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/13/belarus-unprecedented-crackdown) in the country's modern history. However, despite this resistance from a part of society, Belarus is fully under the control of President Lukashenko. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, some [Russian](https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2022/10/whats-behind-russias-new-deployment-of-troops-to-belarus?lang=en) units were deployed on the territory of Belarus, but Belarus itself did not directly enter the war in Ukraine.\n\n Between 1995 and 1999, Boris Yeltsin and Alexander Lukashenko signed a series of treaties, creating the so-called [Union of Belarus and Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State). In principle, it was an attempt to create a common state/union that would be interconnected on a military, economic and/or political level (although Belarus would retain its autonomy). However, this project quickly lost momentum and in reality there is not much left of it, but formally both countries are part of this union state. In February 2023, a strategy for the accession of Belarus to Russia was leaked from Vladimir Putin's presidential office, which envisages the gradual absorption of the country through a number of different paths and instruments, available for example [here](https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html)." }, { "id": 28867, "title": "Will Ukraine conclude a peace treaty with the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukraine-conclude-a-peace-treaty-with-the-russian-federation-by-the-end-of-2030", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:43:59.905393Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.151264Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 37653, "title": "Will Ukraine conclude a peace treaty with the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:43:59.905393Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Russian [invasion](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusk%C3%A1_invaze_na_Ukrainu) of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. Since then, the bloody conflict has claimed hundreds of thousands of victims on both sides, civilians have been significantly affected, many Ukrainians (according to the [UN, around 7 million](https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/ukraine/)) have left the country in an attempt to escape the war. Russian attacks have been demonstrably targeting [civilian targets and infrastructure](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c206l3qgnx2o) and disrupting energy and water networks.\n\n Peace talks were held in the first days of the conflict - [February 28](https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-ukraine-complete-peace-talks-now-will-hold-second-round-2022-02-28/) representatives of both sides met on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. At the end of March, a draft peace agreement (the so-called Istanbul Communique) was prepared by the negotiating teams, but it was ultimately not accepted. One of the reasons could have been the revelation of crimes by the Russian army in the village of [Bucha](https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/21/ukraine-russian-forces-trail-death-bucha), Russia blames Ukraine for the refusal and publicly declares Western pressure as the reason. Since then, no official negotiations have taken place directly between Ukraine and Russia. In November 2022, Ukrainian President Zelensky presented a [peace plan](https://www.reuters.com/world/we-will-have-fight-longer-liberate-ukrainian-land-says-zelenskiy-2022-11-15/), which was aimed primarily at the international community and did not include the Russian Federation.\n\n A specific situation in the war in Ukraine was the negotiation of an [agreement](https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative) regarding the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, in which the UN and Turkey were primarily involved.", "resolution_criteria": "We will evaluate the issue positively if both sides of the conflict sign a treaty that will end the fighting in Ukraine and Russia and will contain provisions determining the post-war arrangement. A ceasefire valid on the entire front, even if observed by both sides, is not sufficient without additional provisions for a positive evaluation of the issue, as it does not resolve the issue of which territories will remain in the hands of which state and other key provisions.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28867, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755677395.00523, "end_time": 1759692852.166, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755677395.00523, "end_time": 1759692852.166, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.40402744239036614 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3909988117457668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.941961281738118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Russian [invasion](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusk%C3%A1_invaze_na_Ukrainu) of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. Since then, the bloody conflict has claimed hundreds of thousands of victims on both sides, civilians have been significantly affected, many Ukrainians (according to the [UN, around 7 million](https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/ukraine/)) have left the country in an attempt to escape the war. Russian attacks have been demonstrably targeting [civilian targets and infrastructure](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c206l3qgnx2o) and disrupting energy and water networks.\n\n Peace talks were held in the first days of the conflict - [February 28](https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-ukraine-complete-peace-talks-now-will-hold-second-round-2022-02-28/) representatives of both sides met on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. At the end of March, a draft peace agreement (the so-called Istanbul Communique) was prepared by the negotiating teams, but it was ultimately not accepted. One of the reasons could have been the revelation of crimes by the Russian army in the village of [Bucha](https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/21/ukraine-russian-forces-trail-death-bucha), Russia blames Ukraine for the refusal and publicly declares Western pressure as the reason. Since then, no official negotiations have taken place directly between Ukraine and Russia. In November 2022, Ukrainian President Zelensky presented a [peace plan](https://www.reuters.com/world/we-will-have-fight-longer-liberate-ukrainian-land-says-zelenskiy-2022-11-15/), which was aimed primarily at the international community and did not include the Russian Federation.\n\n A specific situation in the war in Ukraine was the negotiation of an [agreement](https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative) regarding the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, in which the UN and Turkey were primarily involved." }, { "id": 28866, "title": "Will Chechnya declare independence from the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chechnya-declare-independence-from-the-russian-federation-by-the-end-of-2030", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:42:12.509329Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.767164Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 37643, "title": "Will Chechnya declare independence from the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:42:12.509329Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Chechnya declared [independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechnya) in late 1991, but found itself in a different situation from the pre-existing Soviet republics (e.g. the Baltic states), as it had been part of the Russian Socialist Republic during the Soviet Union. The Russian government feared that other territories in a similar situation (e.g. Tatarstan) might have similar separatist tendencies, and therefore launched military operations to regain control of Chechnya.\n\n In the second half of the 1990s, two wars took place, the second of which ensured that Chechnya remained part of the Russian Federation. However, separatism and terrorism did not end, and at the beginning of the millennium there were the infamous attacks on the school in Beslan and the attack on the Moscow theater on Dubrovka. In 2005 and 2006, the regime of President Vladimir Putin therefore carried out a series of drastic [security reforms](https://rusi.org/publication/russias-post-beslan-counterterrorism-reforms) in Chechnya. In 2007, Ramzan Kadyrov, the son of Chechen President Akhmat Kadyrov, who was assassinated in 2005, became the ruler of autonomous Chechnya, and he still rules it today, mmjn. through propaganda, [torture](https://www.state.gov/continuing-human-rights-concerns-regarding-the-russian-federations-republic-of-chechnya/), and close cooperation with the Russian federal government.\n\n Chechnya's position is however specific, although formally it is an ordinary republic of the Russian Federation, it has considerable autonomy and access to Russian financial resources thanks to its loyalty to Vladimir Putin. It also has numerous [paramilitary forces](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/18/the-real-role-of-pro-russian-chechens-in-ukraine) loyal primarily to the dictator Kadyrov.", "resolution_criteria": "We will evaluate the issue based on reports published by Chechen institutions (e.g. [Parliament of the Chechen Republic](http://www.council.gov.ru/en/structure/regions/CE/)) and/or Ramzan Kadyrov, or his successors.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28866, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753232034.107268, "end_time": 1759560957.937, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753232034.107268, "end_time": 1759560957.937, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.133444719373297 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.7401977221246905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1237470244838175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Chechnya declared [independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechnya) in late 1991, but found itself in a different situation from the pre-existing Soviet republics (e.g. the Baltic states), as it had been part of the Russian Socialist Republic during the Soviet Union. The Russian government feared that other territories in a similar situation (e.g. Tatarstan) might have similar separatist tendencies, and therefore launched military operations to regain control of Chechnya.\n\n In the second half of the 1990s, two wars took place, the second of which ensured that Chechnya remained part of the Russian Federation. However, separatism and terrorism did not end, and at the beginning of the millennium there were the infamous attacks on the school in Beslan and the attack on the Moscow theater on Dubrovka. In 2005 and 2006, the regime of President Vladimir Putin therefore carried out a series of drastic [security reforms](https://rusi.org/publication/russias-post-beslan-counterterrorism-reforms) in Chechnya. In 2007, Ramzan Kadyrov, the son of Chechen President Akhmat Kadyrov, who was assassinated in 2005, became the ruler of autonomous Chechnya, and he still rules it today, mmjn. through propaganda, [torture](https://www.state.gov/continuing-human-rights-concerns-regarding-the-russian-federations-republic-of-chechnya/), and close cooperation with the Russian federal government.\n\n Chechnya's position is however specific, although formally it is an ordinary republic of the Russian Federation, it has considerable autonomy and access to Russian financial resources thanks to its loyalty to Vladimir Putin. It also has numerous [paramilitary forces](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/18/the-real-role-of-pro-russian-chechens-in-ukraine) loyal primarily to the dictator Kadyrov." }, { "id": 38378, "title": "Will Ukraine become a member of the EU by the end of 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukraine-become-a-member-of-the-eu-by-the-end-of-2030", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:36:43.137928Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.464814Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 37656, "title": "Will Ukraine become a member of the EU by the end of 2030?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:36:43.137928Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ukraine's path to the European Union actually began with joining European structures. It is worth mentioning, for example, the accession to the [Eastern Partnership](https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eastern-partnership_en) countries in 2009. However, the key moment was the signing of the so-called [Association Agreement](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX%3A22014A0529%2801%29) in 2014, which also included accession to the so-called Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area ([DCFTA](https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/eu-ukraine-deep-and-comprehensive-free-trade-area)), within which Ukraine's trade exchange with EU countries was fundamentally simplified. De facto, this is the integration of a non-EU member into the single European market.\n\n Shortly after the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, Ukraine applied for candidate status as a member of the European Union, or rather for membership in the EU. The European Commission recommends [candidate status](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/european-neighbourhood-policy/countries-region/ukraine_en) in June 2022 and the European Council approves it, which is an extremely fast procedure compared to other applicants. Accession negotiations have been underway since December 2023. Ukraine's progress is also assessed every year, especially in the area of reforms, or rather the harmonisation of European and Ukrainian legislation - in the so-called Enlargement report, the last published one is available [here](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/1924a044-b30f-48a2-99c1-50edeac14da1_en?filename=Ukraine%20Report%202024.pdf), the first one was prepared in 2022.\n\n However, EU enlargement is certainly not only about reforms, meeting formal criteria, etc., but also about the outcome of the conflict with the Russian Federation. In this area, however, it is difficult to judge how it will be resolved (or when), or whether the method of resolution will not lead to the emergence of new obstacles to Ukraine's accession to the EU. Similarly, it is also possible that some European states will actively resist the country's accession to the EU (Hungary and Slovakia are the most mentioned).\n\n It is worth mentioning that joining the European Union has enormous support among the Ukrainian population. For example, shortly after the outbreak of the conflict with Russia, [a survey by the Rating Sociological Group](https://ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine/sedmoy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_30-31_marta_2022.html) measured support for joining the EU at a full 91%. At the same time, however, it must be said that support is significantly higher in the west of the country, while it is traditionally lower in the east.", "resolution_criteria": "We will evaluate the issue from official sources of the European Union or from reports of credible media. For a positive evaluation of the issue, it is necessary that Ukraine's accession to the EU is ratified by all member states, i.e. that the entire procedure is completed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757010306.553845, "end_time": 1759692887.897, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757010306.553845, "end_time": 1759692887.897, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1559296936712099 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.7161608149020564, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9652678521862139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ukraine's path to the European Union actually began with joining European structures. It is worth mentioning, for example, the accession to the [Eastern Partnership](https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eastern-partnership_en) countries in 2009. However, the key moment was the signing of the so-called [Association Agreement](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX%3A22014A0529%2801%29) in 2014, which also included accession to the so-called Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area ([DCFTA](https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/eu-ukraine-deep-and-comprehensive-free-trade-area)), within which Ukraine's trade exchange with EU countries was fundamentally simplified. De facto, this is the integration of a non-EU member into the single European market.\n\n Shortly after the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, Ukraine applied for candidate status as a member of the European Union, or rather for membership in the EU. The European Commission recommends [candidate status](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/european-neighbourhood-policy/countries-region/ukraine_en) in June 2022 and the European Council approves it, which is an extremely fast procedure compared to other applicants. Accession negotiations have been underway since December 2023. Ukraine's progress is also assessed every year, especially in the area of reforms, or rather the harmonisation of European and Ukrainian legislation - in the so-called Enlargement report, the last published one is available [here](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/1924a044-b30f-48a2-99c1-50edeac14da1_en?filename=Ukraine%20Report%202024.pdf), the first one was prepared in 2022.\n\n However, EU enlargement is certainly not only about reforms, meeting formal criteria, etc., but also about the outcome of the conflict with the Russian Federation. In this area, however, it is difficult to judge how it will be resolved (or when), or whether the method of resolution will not lead to the emergence of new obstacles to Ukraine's accession to the EU. Similarly, it is also possible that some European states will actively resist the country's accession to the EU (Hungary and Slovakia are the most mentioned).\n\n It is worth mentioning that joining the European Union has enormous support among the Ukrainian population. For example, shortly after the outbreak of the conflict with Russia, [a survey by the Rating Sociological Group](https://ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine/sedmoy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_30-31_marta_2022.html) measured support for joining the EU at a full 91%. At the same time, however, it must be said that support is significantly higher in the west of the country, while it is traditionally lower in the east." } ] }
