Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1580
{ "count": 5942, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1600", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1560", "results": [ { "id": 38378, "title": "Will Ukraine become a member of the EU by the end of 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukraine-become-a-member-of-the-eu-by-the-end-of-2030", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:36:43.137928Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.464814Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 37656, "title": "Will Ukraine become a member of the EU by the end of 2030?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:36:43.137928Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ukraine's path to the European Union actually began with joining European structures. It is worth mentioning, for example, the accession to the [Eastern Partnership](https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eastern-partnership_en) countries in 2009. However, the key moment was the signing of the so-called [Association Agreement](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX%3A22014A0529%2801%29) in 2014, which also included accession to the so-called Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area ([DCFTA](https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/eu-ukraine-deep-and-comprehensive-free-trade-area)), within which Ukraine's trade exchange with EU countries was fundamentally simplified. De facto, this is the integration of a non-EU member into the single European market.\n\n Shortly after the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, Ukraine applied for candidate status as a member of the European Union, or rather for membership in the EU. The European Commission recommends [candidate status](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/european-neighbourhood-policy/countries-region/ukraine_en) in June 2022 and the European Council approves it, which is an extremely fast procedure compared to other applicants. Accession negotiations have been underway since December 2023. Ukraine's progress is also assessed every year, especially in the area of reforms, or rather the harmonisation of European and Ukrainian legislation - in the so-called Enlargement report, the last published one is available [here](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/1924a044-b30f-48a2-99c1-50edeac14da1_en?filename=Ukraine%20Report%202024.pdf), the first one was prepared in 2022.\n\n However, EU enlargement is certainly not only about reforms, meeting formal criteria, etc., but also about the outcome of the conflict with the Russian Federation. In this area, however, it is difficult to judge how it will be resolved (or when), or whether the method of resolution will not lead to the emergence of new obstacles to Ukraine's accession to the EU. Similarly, it is also possible that some European states will actively resist the country's accession to the EU (Hungary and Slovakia are the most mentioned).\n\n It is worth mentioning that joining the European Union has enormous support among the Ukrainian population. For example, shortly after the outbreak of the conflict with Russia, [a survey by the Rating Sociological Group](https://ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine/sedmoy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_30-31_marta_2022.html) measured support for joining the EU at a full 91%. At the same time, however, it must be said that support is significantly higher in the west of the country, while it is traditionally lower in the east.", "resolution_criteria": "We will evaluate the issue from official sources of the European Union or from reports of credible media. For a positive evaluation of the issue, it is necessary that Ukraine's accession to the EU is ratified by all member states, i.e. that the entire procedure is completed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757010306.553845, "end_time": 1759692887.897, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757010306.553845, "end_time": 1759692887.897, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1559296936712099 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.7161608149020564, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9652678521862139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ukraine's path to the European Union actually began with joining European structures. It is worth mentioning, for example, the accession to the [Eastern Partnership](https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eastern-partnership_en) countries in 2009. However, the key moment was the signing of the so-called [Association Agreement](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX%3A22014A0529%2801%29) in 2014, which also included accession to the so-called Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area ([DCFTA](https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/eu-ukraine-deep-and-comprehensive-free-trade-area)), within which Ukraine's trade exchange with EU countries was fundamentally simplified. De facto, this is the integration of a non-EU member into the single European market.\n\n Shortly after the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, Ukraine applied for candidate status as a member of the European Union, or rather for membership in the EU. The European Commission recommends [candidate status](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/european-neighbourhood-policy/countries-region/ukraine_en) in June 2022 and the European Council approves it, which is an extremely fast procedure compared to other applicants. Accession negotiations have been underway since December 2023. Ukraine's progress is also assessed every year, especially in the area of reforms, or rather the harmonisation of European and Ukrainian legislation - in the so-called Enlargement report, the last published one is available [here](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/1924a044-b30f-48a2-99c1-50edeac14da1_en?filename=Ukraine%20Report%202024.pdf), the first one was prepared in 2022.\n\n However, EU enlargement is certainly not only about reforms, meeting formal criteria, etc., but also about the outcome of the conflict with the Russian Federation. In this area, however, it is difficult to judge how it will be resolved (or when), or whether the method of resolution will not lead to the emergence of new obstacles to Ukraine's accession to the EU. Similarly, it is also possible that some European states will actively resist the country's accession to the EU (Hungary and Slovakia are the most mentioned).\n\n It is worth mentioning that joining the European Union has enormous support among the Ukrainian population. For example, shortly after the outbreak of the conflict with Russia, [a survey by the Rating Sociological Group](https://ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine/sedmoy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_30-31_marta_2022.html) measured support for joining the EU at a full 91%. At the same time, however, it must be said that support is significantly higher in the west of the country, while it is traditionally lower in the east." }, { "id": 30500, "title": "Will the temperature in Denver, CO remain below 70 degrees F for the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-denver-co-remain-below-70-degrees-f-for-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:51.064324Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.381201Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30290, "title": "Will the temperature in Denver, CO remain below 70 degrees F for the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:51.064324Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:17:08.657077Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022, the highest High was 64 F and in December 2023 it was 71. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is below 70 degrees for the Denver International Airport weather station for every day of December 2024, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=DEN&network=CO_ASOS). If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30500, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720405.092081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720405.092081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.7359986664474251 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9147633448549572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.8613940144275982, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3233979111810672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1526999965227192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 2.817005616282088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8055617015887526, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 66.76259584351139, "peer_score": 14.278052455009275, "coverage": 0.9976553656933486, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9976553656933486, "spot_peer_score": -0.7465351457375557, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 66.76259584351139, "peer_archived_score": 14.278052455009275, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7465351457375557, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022, the highest High was 64 F and in December 2023 it was 71. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30499, "title": "Will the temperature in Phoenix, AZ remain below 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-phoenix-az-remain-below-80-degrees-f-in-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:51.027781Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.911157Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T21:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30289, "title": "Will the temperature in Phoenix, AZ remain below 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:51.027781Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T21:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T21:52:43.445258Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022, the highest High was 74 F and in December 2023 it was 84. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is below 80 degrees for the Phoenix, AZ Sky Harbor Airport weather station for every day of December 2024, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PHX&network=AZ_ASOS). If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30499, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720405.735015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.5475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720405.735015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.5475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4525, 0.5475 ], "means": [ 0.5780560368634204 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04611357990309599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559153758998531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20516018946455522, 0.7278890904285862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.041612515980416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7868265116770632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 1.2239841471209512, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -21.8233981302661, "peer_score": 16.448481635577185, "coverage": 0.996277724918392, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.996277724918392, "spot_peer_score": 31.13242296379354, "spot_baseline_score": -14.401030269151931, "baseline_archived_score": -21.8233981302661, "peer_archived_score": 16.448481635577185, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.13242296379354, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -14.401030269151931 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022, the highest High was 74 F and in December 2023 it was 84. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30498, "title": "Will the temperature in Chicago, IL remain below 60 degrees F for the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-chicago-il-remain-below-60-degrees-f-for-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.991218Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.297043Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30288, "title": "Will the temperature in Chicago, IL remain below 60 degrees F for the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.991218Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:10:26.684912Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022, the highest High was 57 F and in December 2023 it was 60. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is below 60 degrees for the Chicago, IL Midway Airport weather station for every day of December 2024, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MDW&network=IL_ASOS). If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30498, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720406.351458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720406.351458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.5319465237151003 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7549731054070334, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10760738615800111, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9234146250173129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6768182719283072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0898189198051226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.2874365810830919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 1.0432321870587185, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.82719956484602, "peer_score": 18.68739816419521, "coverage": 0.9951815303359871, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9951815303359871, "spot_peer_score": 24.18571308656923, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830478, "baseline_archived_score": 63.82719956484602, "peer_archived_score": 18.68739816419521, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.18571308656923, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830478 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022, the highest High was 57 F and in December 2023 it was 60. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30497, "title": "Will the temperature in Anchorage, Alaska ever go below 0 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-anchorage-alaska-ever-go-below-0-degrees-f-in-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.954308Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.898770Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30287, "title": "Will the temperature in Anchorage, Alaska ever go below 0 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.954308Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T20:19:18.603094Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In most years there are multiple days below 0 in Anchorage in December. However, in December 2019, there were not any. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the low temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever below 0 degrees for the Anchorage, Alaska weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PANC&network=AK_ASOS). If the low for any day has not been below that, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. 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However, in December 2019, there were not any. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30496, "title": "Will the temperature in Jacksonville, FL ever exceed 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-jacksonville-fl-ever-exceed-80-degrees-f-in-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.912712Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.770754Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30286, "title": "Will the temperature in Jacksonville, FL ever exceed 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.912712Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:07:35.526143Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever above 80 degrees F for the Jacksonville Naval Air Station weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=NIP&network=FL_ASOS&year=2024&month=12). If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30496, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720407.902802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31740913474186555 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720407.902802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31740913474186555 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.22365211393869294 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5540662843316813, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 1.6953587407810748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9571101978002281, 0.0, 0.4245262689949799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10162915758592383, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.11525585627893538, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.16961782556015, "peer_score": 15.799213085598018, "coverage": 0.9922335679967096, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9922335679967096, "spot_peer_score": 13.63237666831123, "spot_baseline_score": 73.11832415721999, "baseline_archived_score": 73.16961782556015, "peer_archived_score": 15.799213085598018, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.63237666831123, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 73.11832415721999 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30495, "title": "Will the temperature in New York, NY ever go below 25 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-new-york-ny-ever-go-below-25-degrees-f-in-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.722463Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.855910Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-22T15:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30285, "title": "Will the temperature in New York, NY ever go below 25 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.722463Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-22T15:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-22T15:41:32.884127Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022, this occurred, but in December 2023 it did not. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the low temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever below 25 degrees for the New York City weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=NYC&network=NY_ASOS&year=2024&month=12). If the low for any day has not been below that, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30495, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720408.597435, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.41590000000000005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720408.597435, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.41590000000000005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5841, 0.41590000000000005 ], "means": [ 0.5079580861617274 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 2.2368723033021087, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3208004098403938, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3752513947953817, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5981967606800088, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5236796235954828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 28.944939174536053, "peer_score": 11.968899202432786, "coverage": 0.9907991171297099, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9907991171297099, "spot_peer_score": -22.41384229996182, "spot_baseline_score": -26.569140990309304, "baseline_archived_score": 28.944939174536053, "peer_archived_score": 11.968899202432786, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -22.41384229996182, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -26.569140990309304 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022, this occurred, but in December 2023 it did not. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30494, "title": "Will the temperature in San Francisco, CA ever go below 40 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-san-francisco-ca-ever-go-below-40-degrees-f-in-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.682063Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.716865Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30284, "title": "Will the temperature in San Francisco, CA ever go below 40 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.682063Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:52:54.990099Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022 the lowest recorded temperature was 40 F, while in December 2023 it was 46.13. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the low temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever below 40 degrees for the downtown San Francisco weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=SFOC1&network=CA_DCP&year=2024&month=12). If the low for any day has not been below that, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30494, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720409.217671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.111 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720409.217671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.111 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.889, 0.111 ], "means": [ 0.11398368580116927 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.219858688621007, 0.13357075254608086, 0.9612061900598177, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 1.1236208826473824, 0.5198776598717373, 1.5608812398816436, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2731439221774425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5850006390553214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.70395822665347, "peer_score": 6.961846729146066, "coverage": 0.9896950492483598, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9896950492483598, "spot_peer_score": 4.5368802420907395, "spot_baseline_score": 83.02553241676829, "baseline_archived_score": 82.70395822665347, "peer_archived_score": 6.961846729146066, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.5368802420907395, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 83.02553241676829 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022 the lowest recorded temperature was 40 F, while in December 2023 it was 46.13. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30493, "title": "Will Donald Trump's 538 favorability be greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trumps-538-favorability-be-greater-than-or-equal-to-440-on-december-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.643522Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.336093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30283, "title": "Will Donald Trump's 538 favorability be greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.643522Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:45:55.648541Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump's favorability rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) is greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024. If it is less than that, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30493, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720409.818412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6352 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720409.818412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6352 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6897925509014976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 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true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30282, "title": "Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore still be in space on December 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.601267Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:44:56.794958Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CNET: [Stranded NASA Astronauts Are Eating Pizza, Shrimp Cocktail, Cereal With Powdered Milk](https://www.cnet.com/science/stranded-nasa-astronauts-are-eating-pizza-shrimp-cocktail-cereal-with-powdered-milk/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if both Sunita (Suni) Williams and Butch Wilmore are in space on December 30, 2024, at noon EST, based on credible sources. If they have returned to Earth's surface, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question will be annulled in the event of loss of life of either astronaut.\n\nThe question resolves unambiguously if both astronauts are alive at the relevant time, regardless of their physical or mental condition. \"Earth's surface\" is to be understood in opposition to space (above the Kármán line), orbit (aboard the ISS), or in transit aboard a surface-bound ship.", "post_id": 30492, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720410.48036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9641999999999998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720410.48036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9641999999999998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.898099537422505 ], 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).\n\nWaymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles. Since its inception as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, Waymo’s vehicles have logged over 7 million miles of rider-only trips.\n\nAs of early 2024, Waymo operates its rider-only ride-hailing service in California (San Francisco and Los Angeles) and Arizona (Phoenix), and has announced plans to expand operations to Texas (Austin).\n\nIn late 2023, Waymo published a [report](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/) claiming that its autonomous vehicles have achieved an 85% reduction in the rate of injury-causing compared to national rates for human-operated cars, highlighting the potential of self-driving cars to reduce crashes caused by human error.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the number of US states, including Washington, D.C., in which fully rider-only ride-hailing trips operated by Waymo are available to the general public on December 31, 2024.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be Waymo's website, which as of early 2024 includes a [\"Where Can You Go?\"](https://waymo.com/whereyoucango/) page. Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) may also be considered in the event of ambiguity or dispute.", "fine_print": "\"rider-only\" trip means one in which the only humans in the car are passengers and no human operates the vehicle for the duration of the trip.\n\"Available to the general public\" means that any member of the public is eligible to use the service without first joining a waitlist or having been granted use of the service as part of a limited testing or early access phase.\n\"United States\" means the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Therefore the possible outcome range is 0-51.\nIn the event that Waymo's operating status in a given state is ambiguous or disputed, Metaculus admins will resolve the state's status based on the best available information indicating whether, in fact, its autonomous ride-hailing service is publicly available for ride-hailing on December 31, 2024.", "post_id": 30491, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720411.130072, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41528991403333243 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720411.130072, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41528991403333243 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.23205825921304857 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0839758874887769, 0.13357075254608086, 0.5670536722468447, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 1.0179114698257878, 0.620502543612061, 1.3133173361456105, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6206712971723293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28180589970150993, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0898189198051226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3268262380230356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.69125615061064, "peer_score": 6.162206807229755, "coverage": 0.9865818875117435, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9865818875117435, "spot_peer_score": 11.67325304201035, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 82.69125615061064, "peer_archived_score": 6.162206807229755, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.67325304201035, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).\n\nWaymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles. Since its inception as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, Waymo’s vehicles have logged over 7 million miles of rider-only trips.\n\nAs of early 2024, Waymo operates its rider-only ride-hailing service in California (San Francisco and Los Angeles) and Arizona (Phoenix), and has announced plans to expand operations to Texas (Austin).\n\nIn late 2023, Waymo published a [report](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/) claiming that its autonomous vehicles have achieved an 85% reduction in the rate of injury-causing compared to national rates for human-operated cars, highlighting the potential of self-driving cars to reduce crashes caused by human error." }, { "id": 30476, "title": "Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Ceasefire between Israel & Lebanon/Hezbollah on Jan 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Ceasefire between Israel & Lebanon/Hezbollah on Jan 1, 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Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-25T20:10:37.358029Z", "open_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T19:35:44.139296Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.\n\nOn November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a ceasefire or similar deal that involves the cessation of all military activity between Israel and Hezbollah is active on January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the latest reports from credible sources. If such reports indicate that a ceasefire remains in effect, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If the latest reports indicate that a ceasefire is no longer effective as of the resolution date, this question will resolve as **No**. If it is unclear, according to the judgement of Metaculus admins, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 30476, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735630124.205059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.986 ], "centers": [ 0.992 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735630124.205059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.986 ], "centers": [ 0.992 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.008000000000000007, 0.992 ], "means": [ 0.9857540528090898 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002758391723504557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0056145053338992595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004802654549584282, 0.0049235387378217576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004297018526623552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013523717240138745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034376653681231313, 0.0037302369458043724, 0.0, 0.012715044525389515, 0.0, 0.0032187559410783474, 0.021084170877201564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058442867237358295, 0.0008627503950090944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01732880491444991, 0.006374911068096776, 0.0, 0.0019754520645241095, 0.019132522858291853, 0.007210049137510858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710457550786099, 0.09563836751124195, 0.0023055849961086256, 0.0, 0.23701969683936608, 0.014128607803813408, 0.0, 0.11927286286885727, 0.5060732911860608, 1.2490151600121215, 2.0303700210267372, 12.139649451090909 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 65.75588108778834, "peer_score": 18.269698251730418, "coverage": 0.9998872028044495, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998872028044495, "spot_peer_score": 19.557115729371525, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 65.75588108778834, "peer_archived_score": 18.269698251730418, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.557115729371525, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 453, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. 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If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under RENTALS, make sure Data Type is set to \"ZORI (Smoothed): All Homes Plus Multifamily Time Series\" and Geography is set to \"Metro & U.S.\" The RegionName \"New York, NY\" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)", "fine_print": "Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, \"We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs.\" In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. 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If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under RENTALS, make sure Data Type is set to \"ZORI (Smoothed): All Homes Plus Multifamily Time Series\" and Geography is set to \"Metro & U.S.\" The RegionName \"Los Angeles, CA\" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)", "fine_print": "Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, \"We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs.\" In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. 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If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under RENTALS, make sure Data Type is set to \"ZORI (Smoothed): All Homes Plus Multifamily Time Series\" and Geography is set to \"Metro & U.S.\" The RegionName \"Orlando, FL\" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)", "fine_print": "Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, \"We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs.\" In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. 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If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Zillow Home Value Index, Raw (ZHVI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under HOME VALUES, make sure Data Type is set to \"ZHVI All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op) Time Series, Raw, Mid-Tier ($)\" and Geography is set to \"Metro & U.S.\" The RegionName \"Baltimore, MD\" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)", "fine_print": "Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, \"We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs.\" In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. 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"2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30250, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Y2K, scheduled to open December 6, 2024, exceed $5,000,000?", "created_at": "2024-11-25T14:01:21.374931Z", "open_time": "2024-11-25T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T02:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-11T02:18:41.966597Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, is withholding forecasts on Y2K until more information is available. IMDB [describes](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27218960/) the movie as follows: \"Two high school nobodies make the decision to crash the last major celebration before the new millennium on New Year's Eve 1999. The night becomes even crazier than they could have ever dreamed when the clock strikes midnight.\" Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Y2K, according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt27218960/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) exceeds USD $5,000,000.00. If the number is less than or equal to that, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.", "post_id": 30457, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732633023.708991, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38189999999999996 ], "centers": [ 0.5375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732633023.708991, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38189999999999996 ], "centers": [ 0.5375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4625, 0.5375 ], "means": [ 0.5285809006974013 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05631572831624624, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10162915758592383, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.14290180473265235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.9234146250173129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.7821211939703921, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23234208093040568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0587737807112305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 9.150867911965415, "peer_score": 1.2430251268095378, "coverage": 0.986969400613948, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.986969400613948, "spot_peer_score": -1.5778933854969304, "spot_baseline_score": -11.24747292584125, "baseline_archived_score": 9.150867911965415, "peer_archived_score": 1.2430251268095378, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.5778933854969304, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -11.24747292584125 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, is withholding forecasts on Y2K until more information is available. IMDB [describes](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27218960/) the movie as follows: \"Two high school nobodies make the decision to crash the last major celebration before the new millennium on New Year's Eve 1999. The night becomes even crazier than they could have ever dreamed when the clock strikes midnight.\" Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday." } ] }
