Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1580
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The resolution will be based on the already-calculated net rating presented by 538.", "fine_print": "Question resolves based on the number shown when accessed by Metaculus on or after the resolution date. This question will resolve as Yes if Trump's rating is classified as \"Favorable\" by 538, even if that rating is 0.0. In case 538 has stopped classifying ratings as \"Favorable\" or \"Unfavorable\" or other equivalent categories (such as Approve/Disapprove), this question will resolve as Yes if Trump's Favorable rating is greater than his Unfavorable rating.", "post_id": 34709, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739083308.520699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4578 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739083308.520699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4578 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.43319013871542555 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 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costs and other economic issues](https://apnorc.org/projects/most-adults-are-skeptical-that-trump-can-address-costs-and-other-economic-issues/)" }, { "id": 34708, "title": "Will China announce an agreement to build second PLA military base in Africa before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-china-announce-an-agreement-to-build-second-pla-military-base-in-africa-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:04.165293Z", "published_at": "2025-02-09T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.395085Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-09T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-09T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T19:49:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-09T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34222, "title": "Will China announce an agreement to build second PLA military base in Africa before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:04.165293Z", "open_time": "2025-02-09T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-09T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-09T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T19:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T19:51:21.611056Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-09T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-09T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.75, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Diplomat: [China Continues Its Search for a Maritime Military Presence in West Africa](https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/china-continues-its-search-for-a-maritime-military-presence-in-west-africa/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if China announces an agreement to build a base in any African country other than Djibouti before April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "Dual use facilities such as the [port of Gwadar](https://www.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/gwadar-port-and-chinese-dual-use-facilities) will count.", "post_id": 34708, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739083608.926489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.127 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739083608.926489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.127 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.873, 0.127 ], "means": [ 0.19314034056018473 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 2.204246748998359, 0.0, 0.4391534680481987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2072670748076817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0570459464288646, 0.0, 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"key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Diplomat: [China Continues Its Search for a Maritime Military Presence in West Africa](https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/china-continues-its-search-for-a-maritime-military-presence-in-west-africa/)" }, { "id": 34707, "title": "Will China announce an agreement to build a PLA military base anywhere in North American or South American continents before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-china-announce-an-agreement-to-build-a-pla-military-base-anywhere-in-north-american-or-south-american-continents-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:04.113232Z", "published_at": "2025-02-09T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.703933Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 78, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-09T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-09T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T19:47:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-09T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34221, "title": "Will China announce an agreement to build a PLA military base anywhere in North American or South American continents before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:04.113232Z", "open_time": "2025-02-09T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-09T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-09T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T19:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T19:49:33.509801Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-09T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-09T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.75, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[China and Cuba’s Plan for Military Base Threatens the Region](https://dialogo-americas.com/articles/china-and-cubas-plan-for-military-base-threatens-the-region/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if China announces an agreement to build a base in any North American or South American country before April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34707, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739083957.665564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.035 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739083957.665564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.035 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.0847628830861664 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1844428241337395, 0.0, 0.846720939723207, 0.7178340848142957, 1.6735095220538687, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 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We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents 'join the workforce' and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before April 1, 2025, an individual based in North America can go to claude.ai and receive a Starbucks order delivered to their residence in response to a sentence requesting it in the chat input field. The chatbot can ask the user to specify their address, exactly which drink they want (size, hot or iced, etc.), payment information, etc., after a user has provided the initial request. The conversation must result in the drink being delivered to the user’s residence. No further action on the part of the user, other than that one conversation, should be required. If Metaculus is unable to verify that it is possible for Claude to order a Starbucks delivery as described above before April 2025, then this question resolves as No. ", "fine_print": "Claude should be able to successfully submit a Starbucks delivery order to a semi-arbitrary address in North America after a user has provided the order information. We define “semi-arbitrary” as substantially similar to anywhere that Starbucks (through its current partner DoorDash) is able to deliver normally when an order is placed through the Starbucks app or website. The LLM must generally be able to order any item available for delivery on the menu. Being limited to only ordering the user's most recent order or a subset of items is not sufficient. A user must be able to request the order solely through the main chat input field on the main chat interface. If additional plugins, API or other tools are required, it will not count.", "post_id": 34703, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739039496.544109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739039496.544109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11084324566043927 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0038421690766652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4054339694708904, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1192793689083422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9442611069759398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 78.98244775603779, "peer_score": 2.2214572414156324, "coverage": 0.9559634466965992, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9559634466965992, "spot_peer_score": 3.932628741396251, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 78.98244775603779, "peer_archived_score": 2.2214572414156324, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.932628741396251, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In a January 2025 [blog post](https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections), OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said, \"We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents 'join the workforce' and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes.\"" }, { "id": 34702, "title": "Will ChatGPT be able to order you a Starbucks delivery in Q1 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chatgpt-be-able-to-order-you-a-starbucks-delivery-in-q1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:03.605634Z", "published_at": "2025-02-08T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.396415Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T19:23:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-08T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34216, "title": "Will ChatGPT be able to order you a Starbucks delivery in Q1 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:03.605634Z", "open_time": "2025-02-08T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T19:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T19:28:18.295457Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.75, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In a January 2025 [blog post](https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections), OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said, \"We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents 'join the workforce' and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before April 1, 2025, an individual based in North America can go to chatgpt.com and receive a Starbucks order delivered to their residence in response to a sentence requesting it in the chat input field. The chatbot can ask the user to specify their address, exactly which drink they want (size, hot or iced, etc.), payment information, etc., after a user has provided the initial request. The conversation must result in the drink being delivered to the user’s residence. No further action on the part of the user, other than that one conversation, should be required. If Metaculus is unable to verify that it is possible for ChatGPT to order a Starbucks delivery as described above before April 2025, then this question resolves as No. ", "fine_print": "ChatGPT should be able to successfully submit a Starbucks delivery order to a semi-arbitrary address in North America after a user has provided the order information. We define “semi-arbitrary” as substantially similar to anywhere that Starbucks (through its current partner DoorDash) is able to deliver normally when an order is placed through the Starbucks app or website. The LLM must generally be able to order any item available for delivery on the menu. Being limited to only ordering the user's most recent order or a subset of items is not sufficient. A user must be able to request the order solely through the main chat input field on the main chat interface. If additional plugins, API or other tools are required, it will not count.", "post_id": 34702, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739039512.798496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.10500000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739039512.798496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.10500000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.895, 0.10500000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.15051072320367234 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.122373897078001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6539495419506434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8259853673712518, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0910387762228015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6749403546686197, 0.0, 0.3767362196508774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.43277877387072, "peer_score": 4.047944211428366, "coverage": 0.9609115216467115, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9609115216467115, "spot_peer_score": 10.751137588909472, "spot_baseline_score": 83.99595874895317, "baseline_archived_score": 71.43277877387072, "peer_archived_score": 4.047944211428366, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.751137588909472, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 83.99595874895317 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In a January 2025 [blog post](https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections), OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said, \"We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. 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We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes.\"" }, { "id": 34701, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in February or March 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bitcoin-dominance-exceed-630-on-any-single-day-in-february-or-march-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:03.150188Z", "published_at": "2025-02-08T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.909481Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T19:22:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-08T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34215, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in February or March 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:03.150188Z", "open_time": "2025-02-08T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T19:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T19:22:55.494614Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies combined. BTC dominance has fluctuated over the years. It reached a low of 38.3% in 2022, but has been steadily rising since, achieving a local peak of 60.0% on November 13, 2024.\n\nThe rise could be attributed to multiple factors. The SEC's [approval](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-gives-green-light-options-listing-spot-bitcoin-etfs-nyse-2024-10-18/) of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 increased accessibility for mainstream investors, drawing significant capital into BTC. Donald Trump's re-election might have further driven the rise in BTC dominance as, according to [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89v1w5lxxqo):\n\n> In the run-up to the election Trump said he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint digital asset-friendly financial regulators - spurring expectations that he would strip back regulations on the crypto industry.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) reports a Bitcoin dominance value of 63.1% or higher for any single date in February or March 2025.", "fine_print": "This question is about the daily dominance value and, therefore, resolution will be based on the values that are shown on the graph. To avoid resolving on preliminary values, the most recent value on the graph will not be considered.", "post_id": 34701, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739039667.654036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739039667.654036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5544521665044185 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8513583788776699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7580923136961766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21417393343190896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4538983826480905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.582161016645853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0578139670872608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06987644194532422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -23.11654323225411, "peer_score": 11.43555745522172, "coverage": 0.9656812266508739, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9656812266508739, "spot_peer_score": 13.484199165045439, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -23.11654323225411, "peer_archived_score": 11.43555745522172, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.484199165045439, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies combined. BTC dominance has fluctuated over the years. It reached a low of 38.3% in 2022, but has been steadily rising since, achieving a local peak of 60.0% on November 13, 2024.\n\nThe rise could be attributed to multiple factors. The SEC's [approval](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-gives-green-light-options-listing-spot-bitcoin-etfs-nyse-2024-10-18/) of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 increased accessibility for mainstream investors, drawing significant capital into BTC. Donald Trump's re-election might have further driven the rise in BTC dominance as, according to [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89v1w5lxxqo):\n\n> In the run-up to the election Trump said he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint digital asset-friendly financial regulators - spurring expectations that he would strip back regulations on the crypto industry." }, { "id": 34700, "title": "Will Dogecoin close at $0.690 before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-dogecoin-close-at-0690-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:02.884096Z", "published_at": "2025-02-08T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.179758Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T19:20:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-08T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34214, "title": "Will Dogecoin close at $0.690 before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:02.884096Z", "open_time": "2025-02-08T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T19:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T19:21:49.797340Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-08T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "TipRanks: [Dogecoin Faces Massive Liquidation Drama as Analysts Predict Rally](https://www.tipranks.com/news/dogecoin-faces-massive-liquidation-drama-as-analysts-predict-rally)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price of Dogecoin according to [this Coingecko link](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogecoin/historical_data) is greater than or equal to $0.690 at any point after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Intraday prices do not count; this question resolves based on daily closing prices. No other resolution source will be considered. 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Otherwise, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34683, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738857382.954726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738857382.954726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.190574536884406 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.5014324080641209, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 3.760054867094442, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.2474239191083502, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49942435347039393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2952768065393442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 77.33006876159158, "peer_score": 49.422388204831115, "coverage": 0.9451510816812516, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9451510816812516, "spot_peer_score": 46.064041056248946, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 77.33006876159158, "peer_archived_score": 49.422388204831115, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 46.064041056248946, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025." }, { "id": 34681, "title": "Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-debt-ceiling-be-raised-or-suspended-in-the-us-before-march-17-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:01.485736Z", "published_at": "2025-02-06T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.800583Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T11:19:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-06T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34195, "title": "Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:01.485736Z", "open_time": "2025-02-06T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T11:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-17T11:24:56.482817Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe [debt limit](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling) or debt ceiling in the United States, first established in 1917, sets a limit on the amount of money the US Treasury can borrow. As the US typically borrows to pay prior obligations, reaching the debt limit also limits the ability of the Treasury to fulfill debt obligations, risking default. When the debt limit is reached the Treasury will typically undertake [extraordinary measures](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling#what_are_extraordinary_measures) to avoid default as long as possible.\n\nThe debt ceiling was last suspended in June 2023, but the suspension [expired in January 2025](https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/17/business/debt-ceiling-limit-congress/index.html). On January 17, outgoing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [notified Congress](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2798) that the Treasury had begun taking extraordinary measures to avoid default, including implementing a \"debt issuance suspension period\" on certain funds the government typically invests. This suspension period was specified to persist through March 14, 2025.\n\n[According to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation](https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-debt-ceiling-will-be-reinstated-on-january-1-heres-whats-at-stake/):\n\n> The extraordinary measures and cash balance typically can last up to a few months. Most recently, extraordinary measures enabled the government to continue meeting its obligations from January 2023 until lawmakers suspended the debt ceiling in June 2023 as part of the [Fiscal Responsibility Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/3746).\n> \n> If the available options are exhausted prior to legislation being enacted to adjust the debt ceiling, the United States would default on its debt.\n\nThe brinkmanship involved in the 2023 debt ceiling suspension was a contributing factor to the US' credit rating being [downgraded](https://www.pgpf.org/article/moodys-lowers-us-credit-rating-to-negative-citing-large-federal-deficits/) by two credit agencies, Fitch and Moody's, later in 2023.\n\nReaching an agreement to raise or suspend the debt ceiling [could be difficult](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-ponders-raise-debt-ceiling-dozens-members-ve-always-held-rcna188824) for President Trump and Congress due to the Republicans' thin majority in the House of Representatives.\n\nFor additional resources, see a [tracker of the historical debt limit and debt subject to limit](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/DebtLimit.html) and the Congressional Research Service report [*Debt Limit Policy Questions: How Long Do Extraordinary Measures Last?*](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12147)", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if, before March 17, 2025, Eastern Time, the United States enacts a law that increases the statutory debt limit, suspends it for any period of time, or abolishes it, according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "* Any amount of increase to the debt limit qualifies.\n* Only an enacted law is sufficient. Attempts to increase, suspend, or abolish the debt limit by other means, such as by executive order, are immaterial.", "post_id": 34681, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738857487.29048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.425 ], "centers": [ 0.684 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738857487.29048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.425 ], "centers": [ 0.684 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31599999999999995, 0.684 ], "means": [ 0.6007737921704492 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1851223516044766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.698933558709422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29974415611726246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 1.5741875436575739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -112.00936709476318, "peer_score": 2.9263028595509164, "coverage": 0.9562197485897277, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9562197485897277, "spot_peer_score": 17.55200758729482, "spot_baseline_score": -66.20035364849844, "baseline_archived_score": -112.00936709476318, "peer_archived_score": 2.9263028595509164, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.55200758729482, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -66.20035364849844 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe [debt limit](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling) or debt ceiling in the United States, first established in 1917, sets a limit on the amount of money the US Treasury can borrow. As the US typically borrows to pay prior obligations, reaching the debt limit also limits the ability of the Treasury to fulfill debt obligations, risking default. When the debt limit is reached the Treasury will typically undertake [extraordinary measures](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling#what_are_extraordinary_measures) to avoid default as long as possible.\n\nThe debt ceiling was last suspended in June 2023, but the suspension [expired in January 2025](https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/17/business/debt-ceiling-limit-congress/index.html). On January 17, outgoing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [notified Congress](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2798) that the Treasury had begun taking extraordinary measures to avoid default, including implementing a \"debt issuance suspension period\" on certain funds the government typically invests. This suspension period was specified to persist through March 14, 2025.\n\n[According to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation](https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-debt-ceiling-will-be-reinstated-on-january-1-heres-whats-at-stake/):\n\n> The extraordinary measures and cash balance typically can last up to a few months. Most recently, extraordinary measures enabled the government to continue meeting its obligations from January 2023 until lawmakers suspended the debt ceiling in June 2023 as part of the [Fiscal Responsibility Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/3746).\n> \n> If the available options are exhausted prior to legislation being enacted to adjust the debt ceiling, the United States would default on its debt.\n\nThe brinkmanship involved in the 2023 debt ceiling suspension was a contributing factor to the US' credit rating being [downgraded](https://www.pgpf.org/article/moodys-lowers-us-credit-rating-to-negative-citing-large-federal-deficits/) by two credit agencies, Fitch and Moody's, later in 2023.\n\nReaching an agreement to raise or suspend the debt ceiling [could be difficult](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-ponders-raise-debt-ceiling-dozens-members-ve-always-held-rcna188824) for President Trump and Congress due to the Republicans' thin majority in the House of Representatives.\n\nFor additional resources, see a [tracker of the historical debt limit and debt subject to limit](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/DebtLimit.html) and the Congressional Research Service report [*Debt Limit Policy Questions: How Long Do Extraordinary Measures Last?*](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12147)" }, { "id": 34680, "title": "Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-eighth-starship-integrated-flight-test-reach-an-altitude-of-160-kilometers-before-march-10-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:01.239454Z", "published_at": "2025-02-06T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.802712Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-14T13:51:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-06T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34194, "title": "Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:01.239454Z", "open_time": "2025-02-06T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-14T13:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-14T21:56:32.696131Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\n[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_\\(spacecraft\\)) as the second stage. SpaceX [describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as \"the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable.\"\n\nSo far Starship has undergone [seven \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches), two in 2023, four in 2024, and one in 2025 using the new Block 2 ship design. The ship of the latter flight exploded over the Turks and Caicos Islands during initial burn, likely due to a fuel leak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after February 3, 2025 and before March 10, 2025, Eastern Time, a Starship vehicle reaches an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 99 miles) intact. For this to count, the Starship spacecraft has to be stacked on top of the Super Heavy booster at launch with both launched together.", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve according to information published by SpaceX, including telemetry displayed during its livestream (provided Metaculus has no reason to believe the displayed telemetry is in error), or reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). In the event the altitude achieved is near 160 km but it is not clear whether 160 km was reached, Metaculus may wait for confirmation of the final altitude achieved to resolve the question. If on March 25, 2025, Metaculus determines that there is not sufficient evidence available to determine whether Starship reached an altitude of 160 km the question will be **annulled**. A statement from SpaceX or reporting from credible sources saying that Starship reached an altitude of \"approximately 160 kilometers\" or \"\\~160 kilometers\" or similar will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**, so long as the estimated altitude is 160 kilometers or more.\n* The Starship will be considered to be \"intact\" even if it has minor damage or defects, so long as it remains largely whole.", "post_id": 34680, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738857437.286684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.243 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738857437.286684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.243 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.327400565545788 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 1.4376263977008699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17967653265514222, 1.352952162715849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08727337578883922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 1.2070247726901118, 0.0, 0.36058970651410527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2398926680339766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 39.13436274232075, "peer_score": 1.2378064769293369, "coverage": 0.9668011797136732, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9668011797136732, "spot_peer_score": 7.00873708564195, "spot_baseline_score": 46.46682670034443, "baseline_archived_score": 39.13436274232075, "peer_archived_score": 1.2378064769293369, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.00873708564195, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 46.46682670034443 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\n[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_\\(spacecraft\\)) as the second stage. SpaceX [describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as \"the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable.\"\n\nSo far Starship has undergone [seven \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches), two in 2023, four in 2024, and one in 2025 using the new Block 2 ship design. The ship of the latter flight exploded over the Turks and Caicos Islands during initial burn, likely due to a fuel leak." }, { "id": 34677, "title": "Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-openai-publicly-release-the-full-o3-model-before-march-28-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:01.128328Z", "published_at": "2025-02-06T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.592484Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T17:51:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-06T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34191, "title": "Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:01.128328Z", "open_time": "2025-02-06T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T17:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-28T17:53:05.338948Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI announced its forthcoming o3 and o3-mini AI models in a [<u>livestream</u>](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKBG1sqdyIU) on December 20, 2024. Described as a successor to o1 and skipping over o2, purportedly due to [<u>Telefonica’s O2</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O2_\\(UK\\)), OpenAI [<u>described</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-announces-o3-models-175657596.html) o3 as a significant breakthrough in AI reasoning. The model was reported to have significantly outperformed any previous AI system [<u>on coding and research-level math</u>](https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1870172996650053653?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1870172996650053653%7Ctwgr%5E16fa4771724238be9b30de71968a334c68bca7af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2024%2F12%2F20%2Fopenai-announces-new-o3-model%2F), and also [<u>exceeded previous performance</u>](https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough) on the [<u>Abstract and Reasoning Corpus for Artificial General Intelligence</u>](https://arcprize.org/arc) (ARC-AGI) challenge by far, even reaching approximately human level. According to ARC-AGI:\n\n> Despite the significant cost per task, these numbers aren't just the result of applying brute force compute to the benchmark. OpenAI's new o3 model represents a significant leap forward in AI's ability to adapt to novel tasks. This is not merely incremental improvement, but a genuine breakthrough, marking a qualitative shift in AI capabilities compared to the prior limitations of LLMs. o3 is a system capable of adapting to tasks it has never encountered before, arguably approaching human-level performance in the ARC-AGI domain.\n> \n> Of course, such generality comes at a steep cost, and wouldn't quite be economical yet: you could pay a human to solve ARC-AGI tasks for roughly \\$5 per task (we know, we did that), while consuming mere cents in energy. Meanwhile o3 requires \\$17-20 per task in the low-compute mode. But cost-performance will likely improve quite dramatically over the next few months and years, so you should plan for these capabilities to become competitive with human work within a fairly short timeline.\n\nOpenAI also announced applicants could [<u>apply</u>](https://openai.com/index/early-access-for-safety-testing/) to help safety test forthcoming advanced models. In the announcement video, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman [<u>said</u>](https://www.youtube.com/live/SKBG1sqdyIU?si=_93eeXULrkrt8K_o\\&t=1293):\n\n> We plan to launch o3-mini around the end of January, and full o3 shortly after that, but . . . the more people can help us safety test the more we can make sure we hit that.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 28, 2025, Eastern Time, OpenAI has made the full version of its announced o3 model publicly available via web interface.", "fine_print": "* An o3 version will be considered to be the “full” version if it does not have any qualifiers in its name or description that suggest that the version is not the full version.\n * For example “o3-mini” would not count, and neither would a model named “o3-preview” or described in the announcement or model description as a preview or otherwise not yet the full o3. Stated intentions to continue developing and improving the o3 model will **not** on their own result in the model being considered to not yet be the full version of o3.\n * Names or descriptions that suggest a variant form of a “full” version will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**. For example, o3-pro would be sufficient, while different versions with low and high compute times would also count, for example “o3-low” or “o3-high”, so long as Metaculus assesses that their descriptions are compatible with being a variant of o3 full.\n* It is immaterial if o3 is released with limited or restricted reasoning or compute times. For example, if o3 is released in a manner that satisfies these criteria but is only available in “low” compute mode or has similar restrictions, the question will still resolve as **Yes**.\n* In the event OpenAI renames o3 to be something other than o3, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI states that the model is the one formerly announced as o3 and all other criteria have been met.\n* Metaculus will defer to statements made by OpenAI. For example, it will be immaterial if there is speculation that a released o3 model does not have the full capabilities described in previous announcements of o3.\n* Releases of other models are immaterial. For example if GPT-5 is released and it is not publicly described by OpenAI as being o3, that will not be sufficient.\n* The model will be considered publicly available via web interface if it is available on a webpage for users to interact and converse with, including if limited only to paid subscribers of a certain payment tier, and all of the following availability criteria also apply:\n * It must be available to users in the United States. Availability in other countries is not required.\n * It must not be subject to an invite-only waitlist, for example invite-only betas or testing periods are not sufficient. \n * In the event of a gradual or phased rollout, or in the event access and signups are disabled due to high demand, the question will resolve as **Yes** if at least two Metaculus admins are able to access o3, on separate accounts, as described in these criteria before the date in question. Metaculus admins will not make excessive effort to check for access or to try to get access (aside from completing any signup or subscription steps needed to access o3), and will simply check periodically whether they can access o3.\n * Rate limits or usage restrictions on the number of messages allowed are immaterial, so long as at least one message and response can be had.\n* Release of o3 via API without being released as a web interface is not sufficient.", "post_id": 34677, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738857536.454917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4749999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6609999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738857536.454917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4749999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6609999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5917033567210137 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.235533053562396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10112784325453168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6280825902252571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7570122759228567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2152622159589235, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.32601153273568145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9293231672836759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -22.14470518491732, "peer_score": 5.099448100148635, "coverage": 0.9880230883095, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9880230883095, "spot_peer_score": -0.17208730014773907, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -22.14470518491732, "peer_archived_score": 5.099448100148635, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.17208730014773907, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI announced its forthcoming o3 and o3-mini AI models in a [<u>livestream</u>](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKBG1sqdyIU) on December 20, 2024. Described as a successor to o1 and skipping over o2, purportedly due to [<u>Telefonica’s O2</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O2_\\(UK\\)), OpenAI [<u>described</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-announces-o3-models-175657596.html) o3 as a significant breakthrough in AI reasoning. The model was reported to have significantly outperformed any previous AI system [<u>on coding and research-level math</u>](https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1870172996650053653?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1870172996650053653%7Ctwgr%5E16fa4771724238be9b30de71968a334c68bca7af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2024%2F12%2F20%2Fopenai-announces-new-o3-model%2F), and also [<u>exceeded previous performance</u>](https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough) on the [<u>Abstract and Reasoning Corpus for Artificial General Intelligence</u>](https://arcprize.org/arc) (ARC-AGI) challenge by far, even reaching approximately human level. According to ARC-AGI:\n\n> Despite the significant cost per task, these numbers aren't just the result of applying brute force compute to the benchmark. OpenAI's new o3 model represents a significant leap forward in AI's ability to adapt to novel tasks. This is not merely incremental improvement, but a genuine breakthrough, marking a qualitative shift in AI capabilities compared to the prior limitations of LLMs. o3 is a system capable of adapting to tasks it has never encountered before, arguably approaching human-level performance in the ARC-AGI domain.\n> \n> Of course, such generality comes at a steep cost, and wouldn't quite be economical yet: you could pay a human to solve ARC-AGI tasks for roughly \\$5 per task (we know, we did that), while consuming mere cents in energy. Meanwhile o3 requires \\$17-20 per task in the low-compute mode. But cost-performance will likely improve quite dramatically over the next few months and years, so you should plan for these capabilities to become competitive with human work within a fairly short timeline.\n\nOpenAI also announced applicants could [<u>apply</u>](https://openai.com/index/early-access-for-safety-testing/) to help safety test forthcoming advanced models. In the announcement video, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman [<u>said</u>](https://www.youtube.com/live/SKBG1sqdyIU?si=_93eeXULrkrt8K_o\\&t=1293):\n\n> We plan to launch o3-mini around the end of January, and full o3 shortly after that, but . . . the more people can help us safety test the more we can make sure we hit that." }, { "id": 34676, "title": "Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-francois-bayrou-step-down-or-be-removed-from-his-position-as-prime-minister-of-france-before-march-31-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:01.090156Z", "published_at": "2025-02-06T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.002209Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:19:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-06T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34190, "title": "Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:01.090156Z", "open_time": "2025-02-06T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T21:20:49.437737Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nFrance held a [legislative election in June and July 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election), which resulted in [three political factions](https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/what-does-frances-political-instability-mean-europe) vying for power. The result has increased the instability of government leadership in France. France has had [six prime ministers in the past seven years](https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/decoding-france-frances-unprecedented-crisis), with four of those [serving](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_France#20th_century_%E2%80%93_21st_century) during 2024. The current Prime Minister, [François Bayrou](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Bayrou), was appointed by President [Emmanuel Macron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) after Bayrou's predecessor, [Michel Barnier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Barnier), was ousted in a vote of no confidence. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, either of the following has occurred to remove François Bayrou from the position of French Prime Minister:\n\n* A motion of no confidence is passed in the French parliament.\n* Bayrou has resigned or otherwise ceased to hold the position of Prime Minister.", "fine_print": "* Temporary leave or suspension of duties is not sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes.** For example, if Bayrou takes medical leave that results in an acting Prime Minister being appointed, that will **not** be sufficient.", "post_id": 34676, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738856907.640065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.408 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738856907.640065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.408 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5920000000000001, 0.408 ], "means": [ 0.45370599977530784 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.27392764194382124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34716891740149997, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 1.192082380415589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4265622254853207, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.054875114476263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 30.689687826761258, "peer_score": 7.708338183005883, "coverage": 0.9934229175249736, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9934229175249736, "spot_peer_score": 10.826274756842771, "spot_baseline_score": 24.366908096686295, "baseline_archived_score": 30.689687826761258, "peer_archived_score": 7.708338183005883, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.826274756842771, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 24.366908096686295 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nFrance held a [legislative election in June and July 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election), which resulted in [three political factions](https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/what-does-frances-political-instability-mean-europe) vying for power. The result has increased the instability of government leadership in France. France has had [six prime ministers in the past seven years](https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/decoding-france-frances-unprecedented-crisis), with four of those [serving](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_France#20th_century_%E2%80%93_21st_century) during 2024. The current Prime Minister, [François Bayrou](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Bayrou), was appointed by President [Emmanuel Macron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) after Bayrou's predecessor, [Michel Barnier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Barnier), was ousted in a vote of no confidence. " }, { "id": 34672, "title": "Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Perplexity run an ad at the Super Bowl in 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-openai-anthropic-or-perplexity-run-an-ad-at-the-super-bowl-in-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:00.751971Z", "published_at": "2025-02-03T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.397909Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-03T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-03T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-10T01:17:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34186, "title": "Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Perplexity run an ad at the Super Bowl in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-01T05:24:00.751971Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-03T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-03T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-10T01:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-10T01:17:38.180145Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-03T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-03T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI, Anthropic, and/or Perplexity run a television commercial on the official broadcast of Super Bowl LIX. Otherwise, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34672, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738572686.044054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738572686.044054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2568721722331838 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.449372831594343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.8345542012377256, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09578648840751575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5687482217607278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6341865087632201, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -106.66210537995613, "peer_score": 27.253092064408992, "coverage": 0.9663309877448613, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9663309877448613, "spot_peer_score": -9.37165756099028, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -106.66210537995613, "peer_archived_score": 27.253092064408992, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -9.37165756099028, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Super Bowl [is scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX) for February 9, 2025." } ] }
