Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=160
http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=180", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=140", "results": [ { "id": 37813, "title": "Will the National UFO Reporting Center report a sighting of a cube-shaped UFO in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-national-ufo-reporting-center-report-a-sighting-of-a-cube-shaped-ufo-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.266776Z", "published_at": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:52.130916Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37135, "title": "Will the National UFO Reporting Center report a sighting of a cube-shaped UFO in June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.266776Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-21T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-21T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-29T01:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-29T01:07:34.932114Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts a report of a sighting of a UFO/UAP shaped like a cube in June 2025 at [this link](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "For example, although rare in the history of NUFORC, the month of December 2024 [had](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=e202412) six sightings with a cube shape.", "post_id": 37813, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747805419.281641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747805419.281641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.2512548314613604 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.5935735468969371, 0.17433684005092911, 0.0, 1.0857358715749945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1394820725083266, 0.0, 0.041956810111431826, 0.8929452323661959, 0.15134482788356746, 1.1763299495252282, 0.6683702162141048, 0.0, 0.14974273503116875, 1.162437690328545, 0.08685842761080065, 0.0, 0.2144400238150099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7694824287637623, 0.0, 0.21896262191675547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19414146028744744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5175701831426534, 1.3387879818050314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43782470350779906, 0.14085966230613312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34029419999880384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022614253091566634, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09445334520824408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08331970693963144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6345179599839332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7513609248868253, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010788274017922025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18691676533295776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -138.98808260487198, "peer_score": -14.900055844965628, "coverage": 0.9792892124917771, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9792892124917771, "spot_peer_score": -12.329231311471206, "spot_baseline_score": -139.59286763311394, "baseline_archived_score": -138.98808260487198, "peer_archived_score": -14.900055844965628, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.329231311471206, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -139.59286763311394 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"" }, { "id": 37812, "title": "Will there be greater than 51 direct flight destinations from Beirut, Lebanon on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-greater-than-51-direct-flight-destinations-from-beirut-lebanon-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.996448Z", "published_at": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:15.914626Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37134, "title": "Will there be greater than 51 direct flight destinations from Beirut, Lebanon on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.996448Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:20:13.927310Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Catholic News Agency: [Lebanon will soon have its own ‘camino,’ once traveled by Christ and the Romans](https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/263055/caminos-lebanon-new-initiative-is-designed-to-revive-religious-tourism-in-the-country) | Travel and Tour World: [Lebanon’s Hospitality Sector In Peril: Rising Costs And Low Tourism Threaten Survival](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/lebanons-hospitality-sector-in-peril-rising-costs-and-low-tourism-threaten-survival/) | The New Arab: [Summer canceIled: Israeli attack hits Lebanon tourism hopes](https://www.newarab.com/news/summer-canceiled-israeli-attack-hits-lebanon-tourism-hopes)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are greater than 51 direct flight destinations listed at the [All scheduled direct (non-stop) flights from Beirut (BEY)](https://www.flightsfrom.com/BEY) tracker when checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37812, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747798624.525008, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7140674794897715 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747798624.525008, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7140674794897715 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.5063655635986357 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 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"relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9834461755553878, "spot_peer_score": 9.728001939642178, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -7.907020247050982, "peer_archived_score": 12.893756098244474, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.728001939642178, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Catholic News Agency: [Lebanon will soon have its own ‘camino,’ once traveled by Christ and the Romans](https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/263055/caminos-lebanon-new-initiative-is-designed-to-revive-religious-tourism-in-the-country) | Travel and Tour World: [Lebanon’s Hospitality Sector In Peril: Rising Costs And Low Tourism Threaten Survival](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/lebanons-hospitality-sector-in-peril-rising-costs-and-low-tourism-threaten-survival/) | The New Arab: [Summer canceIled: Israeli attack hits Lebanon tourism hopes](https://www.newarab.com/news/summer-canceiled-israeli-attack-hits-lebanon-tourism-hopes)" }, { "id": 37811, "title": "Will NOAA's Climate.gov still be online on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-noaas-climategov-still-be-online-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.991186Z", "published_at": "2025-05-21T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:19.215947Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37133, "title": "Will NOAA's Climate.gov still be online on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.991186Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": 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"possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NY Post: [Americans on food stamps could be banned from buying ‘bad food and sugary drinks,’ Trump USDA chief says](https://nypost.com/2025/02/14/us-news/americans-on-food-stamps-could-be-banned-from-buying-bad-food-and-sugary-drinks-trump-usda-chief-says/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if \"snack foods\" is specifically listed on the United States Department of Agriculture's [What Can SNAP Buy?](https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/eligible-food-items) webpage as something that is explicitly mentioned as 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know](https://www.livemint.com/news/us-news/us-green-card-diversity-visa-2026-lottery-results-released-what-you-need-to-know-11746381683106.html)" }, { "id": 37805, "title": "Will there be greater than 4 direct flight destinations from Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-greater-than-4-direct-flight-destinations-from-saipan-northern-mariana-islands-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.681468Z", "published_at": "2025-05-20T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:16.865313Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-20T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-20T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-20T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": 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June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-jurisdictions-be-added-to-or-removed-from-the-fatf-grey-list-following-the-fatf-plenary-meeting-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.189019Z", "published_at": "2025-05-19T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:03.986454Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-19T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-19T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-15T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", 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"unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU?*\n\n**Current Youth Mobility Scheme**\n\nThe United Kingdom operates a [<u>Youth Mobility Scheme (YMS)</u>](https://www.gov.uk/youth-mobility) that allows young people—typically aged 18 to 30 or 18 to 35, depending on nationality—from [<u>select countries</u>](https://www.qc-immigration.com/work-visas/youth-mobility-visa) to live, work, and study in the UK for up to two years (three years for some nationalities like Australia, Canada, and New Zealand). \n\nThe scheme is based on bilateral agreements and currently includes countries such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and India, among others. Each participating country has an annual quota, and [<u>some nationalities must enter a ballot due to high demand</u>](https://pmgovtschemehub.com/youth-mobility-visa-uk-india-ballot/).\n\n**European Union**\n\nSince Brexit ended freedom of movement between the UK and EU, there have been[<u> calls from advocacy groups, educational organizations, and some politicians</u>](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/labour-mps-call-youth-visa-205352571.html) to establish a new youth mobility scheme between the UK and the European Union.\n\nIn April 2024, the European Commission proposed negotiations for a youth mobility agreement with the UK, [<u>allowing individuals aged 18 to 30 to study, work, or reside in each other's territories for up to four years</u>](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2025-0018/). \n\nDespite these calls, the UK government remains hesitant. Ministers have consistently [<u>ruled out any return to freedom of movement</u>](https://thepienews.com/uk-has-no-plans-for-eu-youth-mobility-scheme-despite-reports/) and have made reducing net migration a manifesto commitment.\n\nHowever, following Labour's ascent to power, there has been a shift in stance. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has expressed openness to a rebranded [<u>\"youth opportunity scheme,\"</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/20/the-guardian-view-on-a-new-deal-for-travel-in-europe-bring-back-student-exchanges?utm_source=chatgpt.com) modeled after Australia's system. This would permit EU and UK citizens aged 18 to 30 to live and work in each other's countries under a capped, time-limited visa system. The Treasury supports this plan, projecting [<u>a potential 0.4–0.45% GDP increase over ten years</u>](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-eu-youth-mobility-scheme-slwxrhlt9?utm_source=chatgpt.com\\®ion=global). \n\nStill, internal disagreements persist. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper advocates for stricter limitations, including a [<u>maximum stay of 12 months and capped quotas</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/23/labour-letter-youth-mobility-scheme-brexit-eu-brussels?utm_source=chatgpt.com), to manage immigration figures. Conversely, the EU prefers a more expansive scheme, with fewer restrictions and longer durations.\n\nThe upcoming [<u>EU-UK summit on May 19, 2025</u>](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-summit/2025/05/19/), is anticipated to address this proposal. While the UK government shows increased receptiveness, the scheme's implementation depends on resolving internal policy differences and reaching a consensus with EU counterparts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **\"Yes\"** if, before December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM GMT, the United Kingdom joins, creates, or expands a youth mobility scheme that meets the following conditions:\n\n* Be an official **bilateral or multilateral agreement** launched between the UK government and the EU.\n* Provide **youth (typically ages 18–30 or 18–35)** from **all EU countries** the legal ability to **live, travel, and work** in the UK for a specified temporary period.\n\nThe question will resolve as **\"No\"** if no such scheme is joined, created, or expanded by the UK government before the resolution deadline.\n\nConfirmation will be based on official UK government publications (e.g., Home Office announcements), treaty records, or reporting from reputable media outlets (e.g., BBC, The Guardian, Reuters).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37738, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748419999.258599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748419999.258599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.757264428137961 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.204786677822608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU?*\n\n**Current Youth Mobility Scheme**\n\nThe United Kingdom operates a [<u>Youth Mobility Scheme (YMS)</u>](https://www.gov.uk/youth-mobility) that allows young people—typically aged 18 to 30 or 18 to 35, depending on nationality—from [<u>select countries</u>](https://www.qc-immigration.com/work-visas/youth-mobility-visa) to live, work, and study in the UK for up to two years (three years for some nationalities like Australia, Canada, and New Zealand). \n\nThe scheme is based on bilateral agreements and currently includes countries such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and India, among others. Each participating country has an annual quota, and [<u>some nationalities must enter a ballot due to high demand</u>](https://pmgovtschemehub.com/youth-mobility-visa-uk-india-ballot/).\n\n**European Union**\n\nSince Brexit ended freedom of movement between the UK and EU, there have been[<u> calls from advocacy groups, educational organizations, and some politicians</u>](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/labour-mps-call-youth-visa-205352571.html) to establish a new youth mobility scheme between the UK and the European Union.\n\nIn April 2024, the European Commission proposed negotiations for a youth mobility agreement with the UK, [<u>allowing individuals aged 18 to 30 to study, work, or reside in each other's territories for up to four years</u>](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2025-0018/). \n\nDespite these calls, the UK government remains hesitant. Ministers have consistently [<u>ruled out any return to freedom of movement</u>](https://thepienews.com/uk-has-no-plans-for-eu-youth-mobility-scheme-despite-reports/) and have made reducing net migration a manifesto commitment.\n\nHowever, following Labour's ascent to power, there has been a shift in stance. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has expressed openness to a rebranded [<u>\"youth opportunity scheme,\"</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/20/the-guardian-view-on-a-new-deal-for-travel-in-europe-bring-back-student-exchanges?utm_source=chatgpt.com) modeled after Australia's system. This would permit EU and UK citizens aged 18 to 30 to live and work in each other's countries under a capped, time-limited visa system. The Treasury supports this plan, projecting [<u>a potential 0.4–0.45% GDP increase over ten years</u>](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rachel-reeves-eu-youth-mobility-scheme-slwxrhlt9?utm_source=chatgpt.com\\®ion=global). \n\nStill, internal disagreements persist. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper advocates for stricter limitations, including a [<u>maximum stay of 12 months and capped quotas</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/23/labour-letter-youth-mobility-scheme-brexit-eu-brussels?utm_source=chatgpt.com), to manage immigration figures. Conversely, the EU prefers a more expansive scheme, with fewer restrictions and longer durations.\n\nThe upcoming [<u>EU-UK summit on May 19, 2025</u>](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-summit/2025/05/19/), is anticipated to address this proposal. While the UK government shows increased receptiveness, the scheme's implementation depends on resolving internal policy differences and reaching a consensus with EU counterparts." }, { "id": 37737, "title": "Will a federal voter ID bill be signed by Trump before Jan. 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Id bill signed by 2029?", "url_title": "Id bill signed by 2029?", "slug": "id-bill-signed-by-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-15T21:50:29.319791Z", "published_at": "2025-05-18T00:30:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-09T12:46:23.282308Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-18T00:31:24.546736Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T00:30:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37060, "title": "Will a federal voter ID bill be signed by Trump before Jan. 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-05-15T21:50:29.320220Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T00:30:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T00:30:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-01-19T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will a federal voter ID bill be signed by Trump?*\n\nThe debate over a federal voter ID law—specifically, legislation requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections—has become a contentious issue in US politics.. President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers have made this a top priority, arguing it is necessary to secure elections, while Democrats and voting rights advocates warn it could disenfranchise millions of eligible voters.\n\nIn March 2025, [<u>President Trump signed an executive order</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/preserving-and-protecting-the-integrity-of-american-elections/) mandating that [<u>individuals provide proof of US citizenship</u>](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/03/25/trump-executive-order-voter-id/82657485007/) — such as a [<u>passport or REAL ID-compliant driver’s license</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/26/g-s1-55927/trump-voting-citizenship-executive-order) — when registering to vote in federal elections. The order also [<u>directs federal agencies to assist states in purging noncitizens from voter rolls</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/26/g-s1-55927/trump-voting-citizenship-executive-order) and [<u>threatens to withhold federal election funds from states that do not comply</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/presidents-executive-order-elections-explained).\n\nMeanwhile, the [<u>Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act</u>](https://campaignlegal.org/update/what-you-need-know-about-save-act)—which aims to [<u>codify Trump’s executive order into law</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/house-passes-republican-bill-requiring-voters-provide-proof-of-u-s-citizenship) and mandates documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration in federal elections—[<u>passed the House of Representatives</u>](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-passes-bill-requiring-proof-citizenship-vote-federal-elections-rcna200586) in April with a [<u>220–208 vote</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-passes-save-act-proof-of-citizenship-voter-registration-federal-elections/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), but faces hurdles in the Senate. [<u>Introduced by Representative Chip Roy (R-TX) on January 3, 2025</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the SAVE Act seeks to amend the [<u>National Voter Registration Act of 1993</u>](https://www.justice.gov/crt/national-voter-registration-act-1993-nvra). It would [<u>require individuals to present specific documents</u>](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-passes-bill-requiring-proof-citizenship-vote-federal-elections-rcna200586) — such as a U.S. passport, birth certificate, or a REAL ID-compliant driver's license indicating citizenship — when registering to vote in federal elections. The bill aims to prevent noncitizens from voting, despite evidence indicating that such instances are exceedingly rare.", "resolution_criteria": "**Resolution Criteria:**\nThis question will resolve as **\"Yes\"** if, on or before January 20, 2029 at 11:59 PM ET, a bill establishing a **federal voter identification requirement** is signed into law by **Donald J. Trump** while serving as President of the United States.\n\nTo qualify, all of the following conditions must be met:\n\n* **Federal Legislation**: The bill must be passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by Donald J. Trump.\n* **Voter ID Requirement**: The legislation must explicitly require voters in federal elections (e.g., presidential, congressional) to present government-issued photo identification in order to vote in person.\n* **Signed by Trump**: The bill must be signed while Donald J. Trump is serving as President.\n\n**The question will resolve as \"No\"** if:\n\n* No such bill is signed into law by January 20, 2029 at 11:59 PM ET.\n* A federal voter ID law is enacted but not signed by Donald J. Trump.\n* Donald J. Trump is no longer President of the United States.\n\nConfirmation will be based on official government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House announcements) and reporting from reputable media outlets (e.g., The Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37737, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752065172.808968, "end_time": 1759477293.33104, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752065172.808968, "end_time": 1759477293.33104, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.5985415568133907 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7512932451656251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6515535445299288, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.6089113662881536, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will a federal voter ID bill be signed by Trump?*\n\nThe debate over a federal voter ID law—specifically, legislation requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections—has become a contentious issue in US politics.. President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers have made this a top priority, arguing it is necessary to secure elections, while Democrats and voting rights advocates warn it could disenfranchise millions of eligible voters.\n\nIn March 2025, [<u>President Trump signed an executive order</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/preserving-and-protecting-the-integrity-of-american-elections/) mandating that [<u>individuals provide proof of US citizenship</u>](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/03/25/trump-executive-order-voter-id/82657485007/) — such as a [<u>passport or REAL ID-compliant driver’s license</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/26/g-s1-55927/trump-voting-citizenship-executive-order) — when registering to vote in federal elections. The order also [<u>directs federal agencies to assist states in purging noncitizens from voter rolls</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/26/g-s1-55927/trump-voting-citizenship-executive-order) and [<u>threatens to withhold federal election funds from states that do not comply</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/presidents-executive-order-elections-explained).\n\nMeanwhile, the [<u>Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act</u>](https://campaignlegal.org/update/what-you-need-know-about-save-act)—which aims to [<u>codify Trump’s executive order into law</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/house-passes-republican-bill-requiring-voters-provide-proof-of-u-s-citizenship) and mandates documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration in federal elections—[<u>passed the House of Representatives</u>](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-passes-bill-requiring-proof-citizenship-vote-federal-elections-rcna200586) in April with a [<u>220–208 vote</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-passes-save-act-proof-of-citizenship-voter-registration-federal-elections/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), but faces hurdles in the Senate. [<u>Introduced by Representative Chip Roy (R-TX) on January 3, 2025</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the SAVE Act seeks to amend the [<u>National Voter Registration Act of 1993</u>](https://www.justice.gov/crt/national-voter-registration-act-1993-nvra). It would [<u>require individuals to present specific documents</u>](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-passes-bill-requiring-proof-citizenship-vote-federal-elections-rcna200586) — such as a U.S. passport, birth certificate, or a REAL ID-compliant driver's license indicating citizenship — when registering to vote in federal elections. The bill aims to prevent noncitizens from voting, despite evidence indicating that such instances are exceedingly rare." }, { "id": 37700, "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?", "short_title": "War between India and Pakistan before 2027?", "url_title": "War between India and Pakistan before 2027?", "slug": "war-between-india-and-pakistan-before-2027", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-12T20:07:52.839000Z", "published_at": "2025-05-20T18:40:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-11T00:48:16.807917Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-20T18:41:32.492066Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T18:40:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37047, "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-05-12T20:07:52.839407Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T18:40:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-22T18:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 22, 2025, armed terrorists [killed 26 civilians near Pahalgam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack) in the Indian-administered territories of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan denied involvement in the attacks, but in response to the attack India [downgraded diplomatic ties](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nuclear-neighbors-india-pakistan-step-closer-war-heres-121662092) and gunfire was exchanged in skirmishes between the two countries. On May 6, India [conducted missile strikes](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-missiles-border-tensions-21a2859557179f2b32d6b8d5628ac853) on Pakistan in an attack [dubbed Operation Sindoor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_conflict), which Pakistan [claimed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o) killed 31 people. Pakistan also [claimed](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-hnk-intl) it shot down five Indian aircraft during the attack. India claimed shelling by Pakistan killed at least 15 civilians on the Indian side of the de facto border.\n\nIndia and Pakistan, the largest and fifth largest countries in the world [by population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), have a [long history](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan) of conflict over territory. Tensions between the two countries pose an especially high risk due not only to their size, but to the fact that the countries are [two of eight states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) to have acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons.\n\nOn May 10, US President Donald Trump [announced](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114483405683675564) the countries had reached a truce, which each side later [confirmed](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-tensions-timeline-kashmir-d43f29a59c31e2cf5e56c119aa098cb9). However, India and Pakistan promptly [accused](https://apnews.com/article/india-pakistan-missiles-air-bases-1de0ca13c13899f0bd3530b4808d45ad) each other of violating the ceasefire.\n\n[](https://apnews.com/article/214bde245a63339617dd644e061fbbd2?utm_source=chatgpt.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025, and before January 1, 2027, at least 1,000 deaths have occurred in direct conflict between India and Pakistan, according to reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). To the extent possible, only deaths caused by and to citizens of each country, members of the military of each country, or people within the borders or disputed regions of each country will be counted toward the 1,000 death threshold.\n\nDirect conflict is defined as conflict between the military forces or law enforcement of India and Pakistan using kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear means and all deaths caused by such a conflict count, including civilians. Deaths from attacks by or towards proxies such as militants in Jammu and Kashmir do not count for the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "* In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admins may wait up to February 1, 2027, to make a determination and may use all information published prior to that date.\n* Deaths will be totaled over the entire period in question.\n* If reported death totals do not specify which conflict they occurred in (e.g., a total number of deaths suffered by India without distinguishing whether those deaths were caused by Pakistan or another adversary), Metaculus may use available estimates to determine whether the threshold has been met.\n* Deaths from covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n* Deaths caused by friendly fire do not count, as long as they are explicitly referred to as such by credible sources.\n* Deaths caused indirectly, for example as a result of sabotage or cyber-warfare do not count.\n* Direct effects of an attack (e.g. fires, building collapses, or other immediate consequences occurring within 24 hours of the attack) would be included in the count. Effects that develop over longer timeframes (e.g. economic disruption) would not be counted.", "post_id": 37700, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752194885.78212, "end_time": 1752955002.84486, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752194885.78212, "end_time": 1752955002.84486, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.25762743263287013 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.08955766284396574, 0.021585930219435643, 0.29853580031441634, 1.622759289971852, 0.015708539450405595, 0.5667911627135067, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.1836394386094319, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21889195846154325, 0.8331016997804591, 0.9134389029481002, 0.6176099273594333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8309474223424218 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 22, 2025, armed terrorists [killed 26 civilians near Pahalgam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack) in the Indian-administered territories of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan denied involvement in the attacks, but in response to the attack India [downgraded diplomatic ties](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nuclear-neighbors-india-pakistan-step-closer-war-heres-121662092) and gunfire was exchanged in skirmishes between the two countries. On May 6, India [conducted missile strikes](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-missiles-border-tensions-21a2859557179f2b32d6b8d5628ac853) on Pakistan in an attack [dubbed Operation Sindoor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_conflict), which Pakistan [claimed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o) killed 31 people. Pakistan also [claimed](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-hnk-intl) it shot down five Indian aircraft during the attack. India claimed shelling by Pakistan killed at least 15 civilians on the Indian side of the de facto border.\n\nIndia and Pakistan, the largest and fifth largest countries in the world [by population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), have a [long history](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan) of conflict over territory. Tensions between the two countries pose an especially high risk due not only to their size, but to the fact that the countries are [two of eight states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) to have acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons.\n\nOn May 10, US President Donald Trump [announced](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114483405683675564) the countries had reached a truce, which each side later [confirmed](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-tensions-timeline-kashmir-d43f29a59c31e2cf5e56c119aa098cb9). However, India and Pakistan promptly [accused](https://apnews.com/article/india-pakistan-missiles-air-bases-1de0ca13c13899f0bd3530b4808d45ad) each other of violating the ceasefire.\n\n[](https://apnews.com/article/214bde245a63339617dd644e061fbbd2?utm_source=chatgpt.com)" }, { "id": 37699, "title": "Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?", "short_title": "Sam Altman + Elon Musk together at YC AI Startup School?", "url_title": "Sam Altman + Elon Musk together at YC AI Startup School?", "slug": "sam-altman-elon-musk-together-at-yc-ai-startup-school", "author_id": 271288, "author_username": "etridgely", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-12T19:51:29.986741Z", "published_at": "2025-05-22T10:16:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:31.381088Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-22T10:19:57.909784Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T10:16:57Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37046, "title": "Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?", "created_at": "2025-05-12T19:51:29.987161Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T10:16:57Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-27T10:16:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-19T23:00:53.135600Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Y Combinator is an American venture capital firm known for launching over 5,000 companies including Airbnb, Stripe, and Reddit. In 2025, Y Combinator announced AI Startup School, a conference in San Francisco held on June 16–17, aimed at 2,000 final-year students and recent graduates in computer science, artificial intelligence, and related fields. \n\nY Combinator has announced that both Sam Altman and Elon Musk are among the headline speakers at the AI Startup School, but it is unknown whether they will appear on stage together at the same time.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Sam Altman and Elon Musk share a stage together at YC AI Startup School after 7:59 AM, June 16, 2025, and before 00:00 AM, June 18, 2025. Otherwise, this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "Sharing a stage is defined as both individuals being physically present on the same platform at the same time. \n\nThis question will resolve according to a preponderance of evidence. If there is no clear evidence of this occurring before July 1, 2025, this question will resolve as No.\n\nAll times for this question are in Pacific Daylight Time (PDT).  ", "post_id": 37699, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749171430.311413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749171430.311413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.21114098489800767 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2739859364129244, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0572430915526818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3317621938535833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.715635749940806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.00289153190656, "peer_score": 44.252623132949026, "coverage": 0.9892349810115477, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9892349810115477, "spot_peer_score": 24.86262172401208, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 73.00289153190656, "peer_archived_score": 44.252623132949026, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.86262172401208, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Y Combinator is an American venture capital firm known for launching over 5,000 companies including Airbnb, Stripe, and Reddit. In 2025, Y Combinator announced AI Startup School, a conference in San Francisco held on June 16–17, aimed at 2,000 final-year students and recent graduates in computer science, artificial intelligence, and related fields. \n\nY Combinator has announced that both Sam Altman and Elon Musk are among the headline speakers at the AI Startup School, but it is unknown whether they will appear on stage together at the same time." }, { "id": 37690, "title": "Will the US import more shrimp in 2025 than 2024?", "short_title": "2025 US Shrimp Imports > 2024?", "url_title": "2025 US Shrimp Imports > 2024?", "slug": "2025-us-shrimp-imports-2024", "author_id": 270917, "author_username": "Gapetheape", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-10T15:10:36.767423Z", "published_at": "2025-05-10T20:47:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T17:37:56.328985Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-10T20:49:21.090656Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-11T20:47:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 37042, "title": "Will the US import more shrimp in 2025 than 2024?", "created_at": "2025-05-10T15:10:36.767798Z", "open_time": "2025-05-11T20:47:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-15T20:47:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2024, 760,531 metric tons of shrimp were imported into the United States from all countries. \n\nThe US has a small domestic farmed and wild caught shrimp industry, but the vast majority of the shrimp consumed in the country is imported. The top 10 importers of shrimp to the US in 2024 were:\n\nCountry / Metric Tons Imported (Source: [NOAA](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/foss/f?p=215:20:12944266251216:::::)) \n\n1\\) India / 294,318 MT\n\n2\\) Ecuador / 187,040\n\n3\\) Indonesia / 134,802\n\n4\\) Vietnam / 68,407\n\n5\\) Thailand / 26,895\n\n6\\) Argentina / 14,709\n\n7\\) Mexico / 13,867\n\n8\\) China / 2,842\n\n9\\) Saudi Arabia / 2,826\n\n10\\) Peru / 2,475\n\nRecent History: \n2025: American Shrimp industry welcomes Trump's tariffs as badly need \"lifeline\" ([here](https://shrimpalliance.com/u-s-shrimp-industry-hails-new-tariffs-as-crucial-lifeline/ \"here\")) / Amyco blog post on record January import numbers ([here](https://www.amycoseafoods.com/china-seafood-news/u.s.-shrimp-imports-rose-sharply-in-january.html \"here\"))\n\nShrimp Industry:\nShrimp Insights ([here](https://www.shrimpinsights.com/ \"here\"))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the United States imports more than 760,531 metric tons of shrimp in 2025. Otherwise this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "The primary source for resolution will be [NOAA's shrimp import data](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/foss/f?p=215:20:12944266251216:::::).\n\nIf NOAA stops collecting this data or it is considered unreliable by Metaculus, then other reliable sources may be used.", "post_id": 37690, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752410169.826653, "end_time": 1754501863.45, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752410169.826653, "end_time": 1754501863.45, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.352019337150607 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 1.3678794411714423, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2024, 760,531 metric tons of shrimp were imported into the United States from all countries. \n\nThe US has a small domestic farmed and wild caught shrimp industry, but the vast majority of the shrimp consumed in the country is imported. The top 10 importers of shrimp to the US in 2024 were:\n\nCountry / Metric Tons Imported (Source: [NOAA](https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/foss/f?p=215:20:12944266251216:::::)) \n\n1\\) India / 294,318 MT\n\n2\\) Ecuador / 187,040\n\n3\\) Indonesia / 134,802\n\n4\\) Vietnam / 68,407\n\n5\\) Thailand / 26,895\n\n6\\) Argentina / 14,709\n\n7\\) Mexico / 13,867\n\n8\\) China / 2,842\n\n9\\) Saudi Arabia / 2,826\n\n10\\) Peru / 2,475\n\nRecent History: \n2025: American Shrimp industry welcomes Trump's tariffs as badly need \"lifeline\" ([here](https://shrimpalliance.com/u-s-shrimp-industry-hails-new-tariffs-as-crucial-lifeline/ \"here\")) / Amyco blog post on record January import numbers ([here](https://www.amycoseafoods.com/china-seafood-news/u.s.-shrimp-imports-rose-sharply-in-january.html \"here\"))\n\nShrimp Industry:\nShrimp Insights ([here](https://www.shrimpinsights.com/ \"here\"))" } ] }{ "count": 5512, "next": "