Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=160
{ "count": 6245, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=180", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=140", "results": [ { "id": 40026, "title": "Will marijuana be rescheduled at the federal level in the US before 2030?", "short_title": "Marijuana rescheduled before 2030?", "url_title": "Marijuana rescheduled before 2030?", "slug": "marijuana-rescheduled-before-2030", "author_id": 134352, "author_username": "Tristan_Williams", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-23T20:18:31.812699Z", "published_at": "2025-10-09T00:49:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T20:59:33.344189Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-09T00:50:10.714870Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-10T00:49:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39568, "title": "Will marijuana be rescheduled at the federal level in the US before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-09-23T20:18:31.813152Z", "open_time": "2025-10-10T00:49:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T00:49:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T00:49:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Marijuana is currently a [schedule I substance](https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling) in the United States, meaning that significant punishments can be imposed on those who contribute to the production or distribution of it, as well as those who possess or use the drug. Schedule I substances are defined as drugs which have \"no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse.\" Given the rise of medicinal use of marijuana, many have called for its rescheduling. [As of October 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), 40 states have legalized medical use of marijuana, and 24 have legalized its recreational use. \n\nThe Drug Enforcement Administration [is currently](https://apnews.com/article/marijuana-biden-dea-criminal-justice-pot-f833a8dae6ceb31a8658a5d65832a3b8) in the process of rescheduling marijuana, a process which started in April 2024, but there have been multiple legislative attempts to block it. For example, on September 10, 2025, the House Appropriations Committee [approved](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/gop-led-congressional-committee-votes-to-block-trump-from-rescheduling-marijuana/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) legislation that would significantly limit (or even prevent) the DEA's ability to reclassify marijuana.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, the United States federal government reschedules marijuana to any other schedule level [(i.e., schedule II, III, IV, V)](https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling) or deschedules it entirely.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40026, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760734762.669069, "end_time": 1768273459.355, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760734762.669069, "end_time": 1768273459.355, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.54, 0.46 ], "means": [ 0.45386031994295567 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Marijuana is currently a [schedule I substance](https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling) in the United States, meaning that significant punishments can be imposed on those who contribute to the production or distribution of it, as well as those who possess or use the drug. Schedule I substances are defined as drugs which have \"no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse.\" Given the rise of medicinal use of marijuana, many have called for its rescheduling. [As of October 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), 40 states have legalized medical use of marijuana, and 24 have legalized its recreational use. \n\nThe Drug Enforcement Administration [is currently](https://apnews.com/article/marijuana-biden-dea-criminal-justice-pot-f833a8dae6ceb31a8658a5d65832a3b8) in the process of rescheduling marijuana, a process which started in April 2024, but there have been multiple legislative attempts to block it. For example, on September 10, 2025, the House Appropriations Committee [approved](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/gop-led-congressional-committee-votes-to-block-trump-from-rescheduling-marijuana/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) legislation that would significantly limit (or even prevent) the DEA's ability to reclassify marijuana." }, { "id": 40022, "title": "Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?", "short_title": "Stronger 2025 Atlantic hurricane than Erin?", "url_title": "Stronger 2025 Atlantic hurricane than Erin?", "slug": "stronger-2025-atlantic-hurricane-than-erin", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-23T03:48:01.767769Z", "published_at": "2025-09-27T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-27T17:00:00.188332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-23T03:48:01.975140Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-27T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T07:39:57.390313Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T07:39:57.390313Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39566, "title": "Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?", "created_at": "2025-09-23T03:48:01.768229Z", "open_time": "2025-09-27T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In August 2025, [Hurricane Erin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_\\(2025\\)) swept across the Atlantic Ocean and then moved through the northern Caribbean before skirting up the east coast of the United States and heading back out to sea. At its peak intensity, it reached 160 mph [maximum sustained wind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind), classifying it as a Category 5: the highest category on the [Saffir–Simpson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) hurricane-intensity scale.\n\nStill, it was no record-breaker. The most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record remains [Allen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen), which in 1980 reached maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. And more recently, [Hurricane Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton) reached 180 mph in October 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39771,\"question_id\":39214}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if an Atlantic hurricane reaches maximum sustained winds of more than 160 mph before December 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "The primary source for this question will be the [US National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc).", "post_id": 40022, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758992040.28797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758992040.28797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.27531744148850923 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 17.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In August 2025, [Hurricane Erin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_\\(2025\\)) swept across the Atlantic Ocean and then moved through the northern Caribbean before skirting up the east coast of the United States and heading back out to sea. At its peak intensity, it reached 160 mph [maximum sustained wind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind), classifying it as a Category 5: the highest category on the [Saffir–Simpson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) hurricane-intensity scale.\n\nStill, it was no record-breaker. The most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record remains [Allen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen), which in 1980 reached maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. And more recently, [Hurricane Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton) reached 180 mph in October 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39771,\"question_id\":39214}}`" }, { "id": 40020, "title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-be-shut-down-before-october-2-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-23T03:48:00.875900Z", "published_at": "2025-09-27T11:34:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-09T20:34:13.066497Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-23T03:48:01.106918Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-27T13:04:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-27T13:04:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-27T11:34:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T07:39:57.390313Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T07:39:57.390313Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39564, "title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-23T03:48:00.876412Z", "open_time": "2025-09-27T11:34:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-27T13:04:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-27T13:04:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-06T16:35:36.384709Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-27T13:04:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-27T13:04:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Politico September 22, 2025: [Tables turn for Democrats as they use shutdown for leverage](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/22/democrats-shutdown-leverage-00574029)\n\n> On one side is the minority party, using what little leverage it has — a looming government funding deadline — to push for priorities it can’t enact otherwise. On the other is the majority, insisting a short-term funding punt is no place for negotiation.\n\n> If that sounds familiar, that’s because just such a scenario has played out dozens of times on Capitol Hill over the past decade and a half — usually with Republicans pushing for policy concessions and Democrats insisting on a “clean” stopgap.\n\n> Not this time. The roles have been reversed between the two parties as Congress [barrels toward a government shutdown](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/19/government-shutdown-standoff-senate-vote-00573168) on Oct. 1 with no obvious off-ramp in sight.\n\nThe Hill September 19, 2025: [Trump predicts government could shut down ‘for a period of time’](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5513157-trump-predicts-government-shutdown/)\n\n> President Trump on Friday predicted the government would shut down “for a period of time” amid an impasse in the Senate between Republicans and Democrats.\n\n> Trump expressed some pessimism about the two sides reaching an agreement that can garner 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans have 53 seats in the chamber, meaning at least seven Democrats will need to support a funding measure to keep the government open.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40011,\"question_id\":39556}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 2, 2025, the United States federal government is in [shut down furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#url=Shutdown-Furlough) status, as announced by the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event of material issues with the main resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40020, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758976556.3045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758976556.3045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.7023168997094549 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 9.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 18.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.59407301608819, "peer_score": 7.075212916609485, "coverage": 0.9890590237246619, "relative_legacy_score": 0.14597664442184655, "weighted_coverage": 0.9890590237246619, "spot_peer_score": 7.973527593628057, "spot_baseline_score": 56.55971758542251, "baseline_archived_score": 56.59407301608819, "peer_archived_score": 7.075212916609485, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.14597664442184655, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.973527593628057, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 56.55971758542251 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Politico September 22, 2025: [Tables turn for Democrats as they use shutdown for leverage](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/22/democrats-shutdown-leverage-00574029)\n\n> On one side is the minority party, using what little leverage it has — a looming government funding deadline — to push for priorities it can’t enact otherwise. On the other is the majority, insisting a short-term funding punt is no place for negotiation.\n\n> If that sounds familiar, that’s because just such a scenario has played out dozens of times on Capitol Hill over the past decade and a half — usually with Republicans pushing for policy concessions and Democrats insisting on a “clean” stopgap.\n\n> Not this time. The roles have been reversed between the two parties as Congress [barrels toward a government shutdown](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/19/government-shutdown-standoff-senate-vote-00573168) on Oct. 1 with no obvious off-ramp in sight.\n\nThe Hill September 19, 2025: [Trump predicts government could shut down ‘for a period of time’](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5513157-trump-predicts-government-shutdown/)\n\n> President Trump on Friday predicted the government would shut down “for a period of time” amid an impasse in the Senate between Republicans and Democrats.\n\n> Trump expressed some pessimism about the two sides reaching an agreement that can garner 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans have 53 seats in the chamber, meaning at least seven Democrats will need to support a funding measure to keep the government open.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40011,\"question_id\":39556}}`" }, { "id": 40015, "title": "Will the S&P 500 close above 7,000 points before it next closes below 6,000?", "short_title": "S&P 500 closes above 7,000 or below 6,000 first?", "url_title": "S&P 500 closes above 7,000 or below 6,000 first?", "slug": "sp-500-closes-above-7000-or-below-6000-first", "author_id": 131523, "author_username": "RMD", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-22T23:51:02.694715Z", "published_at": "2025-09-23T00:10:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T06:08:11.596750Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-23T00:10:44.769665Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-23T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39559, "title": "Will the S&P 500 close above 7,000 points before it next closes below 6,000?", "created_at": "2025-09-22T23:51:02.695212Z", "open_time": "2025-09-23T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-28T00:10:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-28T00:10:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [S\\&P 500](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S\\&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.\n\nSee also from Fortune: [S\\&P 500 will hit 7,000 by early 2026, JPMorgan argues, as stocks climb ‘wall of worry’](https://fortune.com/2025/09/10/sp-500-7000-stocks-wall-of-worry/)\n\nFrom SeekingAlpha:[ ](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4815338-s-and-p-500-5-signs-flashing-yellow)\n\n[S\\&P 500: 5 Signs Flashing Yellow](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4815338-s-and-p-500-5-signs-flashing-yellow)\n\n[Enough Is Enough: AI Is Driving Us To Sell Our S\\&P 500 Position](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4813046-enough-is-enough-ai-is-driving-us-to-sell-our-s-and-p-500-position)\n\n[Markets: Bullish Vs. Bearish Case](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4824762-markets-bullish-vs-bearish-case)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after September 22, 2025, the S\\&P 500 closes above 7,000 points before it first closes below 6,000 points, according to the Close column on [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/). It resolves as **No** if, after September 22, 2025, it closes below 6,000 points before first closing above 7,000 points.", "fine_print": "If Yahoo Finance delays or ceases reporting the data, reports the data in error, or is otherwise unavailable, Metaculus might choose an alternative [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) source to resolve this question.\n\nThe resolution source at Yahoo! Finance can be found under the \"Historical data\" tab and \"Close\" price column. (Predictors should ignore the \"Adj. Close\" price column.) \n\nThis question will be **annulled** if the S\\&P 500 neither closes below 6,000 points nor above 7,000 points after September 22, 2025 and before January 1, 2028.", "post_id": 40015, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761631681.466045, "end_time": 1765894530.78, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761631681.466045, "end_time": 1765894530.78, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6905763221451577 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0323361294005466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.614663419783399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [S\\&P 500](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S\\&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.\n\nSee also from Fortune: [S\\&P 500 will hit 7,000 by early 2026, JPMorgan argues, as stocks climb ‘wall of worry’](https://fortune.com/2025/09/10/sp-500-7000-stocks-wall-of-worry/)\n\nFrom SeekingAlpha:[ ](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4815338-s-and-p-500-5-signs-flashing-yellow)\n\n[S\\&P 500: 5 Signs Flashing Yellow](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4815338-s-and-p-500-5-signs-flashing-yellow)\n\n[Enough Is Enough: AI Is Driving Us To Sell Our S\\&P 500 Position](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4813046-enough-is-enough-ai-is-driving-us-to-sell-our-s-and-p-500-position)\n\n[Markets: Bullish Vs. Bearish Case](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4824762-markets-bullish-vs-bearish-case)" }, { "id": 40013, "title": "Will Nayib Bukele Rule El Salvador for Life?", "short_title": "Will Bukele rule for life?", "url_title": "Will Bukele rule for life?", "slug": "will-bukele-rule-for-life", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-22T21:33:04.968895Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T10:24:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T12:38:53.490538Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T10:25:23.458134Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T10:24:11Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39557, "title": "Will Nayib Bukele Rule El Salvador for Life?", "created_at": "2025-09-22T21:33:04.969419Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T10:24:11Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T09:24:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T09:24:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Nayib Bukele Rule El Salvador for Life?*\n\nSince assuming office in 2019, President **Nayib Bukele** has consolidated significant authority in El Salvador, combining aggressive anti-gang enforcement with sweeping institutional reforms. His crackdown on gang violence—[<u>from a homicide rate of 38 per 100,000 in 2019 to one of the lowest in the region by 202</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayib_Bukele?)4—has cemented his popularity, even as mass detentions and state-of-emergency powers raised concerns about human rights and due process.\n\nIn a major shift this year, Bukele’s **New Ideas** party leveraged its supermajority in the Legislative Assembly to pass a constitutional [**<u>amendment on July 31, 2025</u>**<u>, allowing **indefinite presidential re-election**,</u>](https://constitutionnet.org/news/voices/term-limits-no-limits-el-salvadors-constitutional-reform-presidential-re-election) extending the term from five to six years, eliminating runoff elections, and synchronizing future electoral cycles. The vote was overwhelmingly in favor—**57 to 3**, with minimal public debate or opposition participation.\n\nThese reforms have sparked alarm from human rights bodies, opposition lawmakers, and international observers. [<u>The **Inter‑American Commission on Human Rights** labeled the changes a setback for democracy</u>](https://ticotimes.net/2025/08/09/el-salvador-opposition-challenges-bukele-indefinite-reelection), while opposition figures and groups like Human Rights Watch warned that the erosion of term limits reflects a slide toward authoritarianism.\n\nBukele’s political dominance has also involved dismantling institutional checks: in 2021, his allies purged the Supreme Court’s Constitutional Chamber, enabling controversial judicial rulings—including allowing his re-election in 2024 despite previous constitutional bans—which critics say undermined democratic norms\n\nWith the next presidential election now scheduled for **February 28, 2027**, Bukele is constitutionally cleared to seek additional terms beyond that, [<u>making it feasible that he could remain in power for life</u>](https://constitutionnet.org/news/voices/term-limits-no-limits-el-salvadors-constitutional-reform-presidential-re-election)—depending on political developments, possible legal challenges, or electoral outcomes.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Nayib Bukele remains in office as President of El Salvador until his death.", "fine_print": "Temporary leaves of absence (such as medical leave) while remaining constitutionally recognized president will not resolve this question.\n\nIf Nayib Bukele dies before 2035, and has remained in office up until then, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 40013, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761655123.125206, "end_time": 1768687240.363, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761655123.125206, "end_time": 1768687240.363, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.10362899631602496 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6847498414854892, 2.795489928076479, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1240256289528956, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31167327899025943, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Nayib Bukele Rule El Salvador for Life?*\n\nSince assuming office in 2019, President **Nayib Bukele** has consolidated significant authority in El Salvador, combining aggressive anti-gang enforcement with sweeping institutional reforms. His crackdown on gang violence—[<u>from a homicide rate of 38 per 100,000 in 2019 to one of the lowest in the region by 202</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayib_Bukele?)4—has cemented his popularity, even as mass detentions and state-of-emergency powers raised concerns about human rights and due process.\n\nIn a major shift this year, Bukele’s **New Ideas** party leveraged its supermajority in the Legislative Assembly to pass a constitutional [**<u>amendment on July 31, 2025</u>**<u>, allowing **indefinite presidential re-election**,</u>](https://constitutionnet.org/news/voices/term-limits-no-limits-el-salvadors-constitutional-reform-presidential-re-election) extending the term from five to six years, eliminating runoff elections, and synchronizing future electoral cycles. The vote was overwhelmingly in favor—**57 to 3**, with minimal public debate or opposition participation.\n\nThese reforms have sparked alarm from human rights bodies, opposition lawmakers, and international observers. [<u>The **Inter‑American Commission on Human Rights** labeled the changes a setback for democracy</u>](https://ticotimes.net/2025/08/09/el-salvador-opposition-challenges-bukele-indefinite-reelection), while opposition figures and groups like Human Rights Watch warned that the erosion of term limits reflects a slide toward authoritarianism.\n\nBukele’s political dominance has also involved dismantling institutional checks: in 2021, his allies purged the Supreme Court’s Constitutional Chamber, enabling controversial judicial rulings—including allowing his re-election in 2024 despite previous constitutional bans—which critics say undermined democratic norms\n\nWith the next presidential election now scheduled for **February 28, 2027**, Bukele is constitutionally cleared to seek additional terms beyond that, [<u>making it feasible that he could remain in power for life</u>](https://constitutionnet.org/news/voices/term-limits-no-limits-el-salvadors-constitutional-reform-presidential-re-election)—depending on political developments, possible legal challenges, or electoral outcomes." }, { "id": 40011, "title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-be-shut-down-before-october-2-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:49.886738Z", "published_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T06:11:28.455283Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-22T13:05:24.868230Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-22T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T12:44:28.036451Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T12:44:28.036451Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39556, "title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:49.887232Z", "open_time": "2025-09-22T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-26T12:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-26T12:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-01T08:09:03.608609Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Politico September 22, 2025: [Tables turn for Democrats as they use shutdown for leverage](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/22/democrats-shutdown-leverage-00574029)\n\n> On one side is the minority party, using what little leverage it has — a looming government funding deadline — to push for priorities it can’t enact otherwise. On the other is the majority, insisting a short-term funding punt is no place for negotiation.\n\n> If that sounds familiar, that’s because just such a scenario has played out dozens of times on Capitol Hill over the past decade and a half — usually with Republicans pushing for policy concessions and Democrats insisting on a “clean” stopgap.\n\n> Not this time. The roles have been reversed between the two parties as Congress [barrels toward a government shutdown](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/19/government-shutdown-standoff-senate-vote-00573168) on Oct. 1 with no obvious off-ramp in sight.\n\nThe Hill September 19, 2025: [Trump predicts government could shut down ‘for a period of time’](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5513157-trump-predicts-government-shutdown/)\n\n> President Trump on Friday predicted the government would shut down “for a period of time” amid an impasse in the Senate between Republicans and Democrats.\n\n> Trump expressed some pessimism about the two sides reaching an agreement that can garner 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans have 53 seats in the chamber, meaning at least seven Democrats will need to support a funding measure to keep the government open.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 2, 2025, the United States federal government is in [shut down furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#url=Shutdown-Furlough) status, as announced by the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event of material issues with the main resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40011, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759279831.749806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759279831.749806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8732581662515931 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012381970298981316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41887897082677805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20794218954840368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1664766545233207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42045387421329744, 0.2579261536198105, 0.0, 0.010533797021803945, 0.0, 0.4151010611874172, 0.0, 0.08126255146963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5775167969492991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7427540267039733, 0.0, 0.8059925608626395, 0.0, 0.5390361272362366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21513360951852367, 0.3403841164406407, 0.0, 0.8359805140137624, 0.0, 2.8078985190752612, 0.0, 0.4446905342845983, 0.4747323889921012, 0.0, 1.5822944667850665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7392557304732013, 3.2720344449033356 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -30.069226736231712, "peer_score": 12.319573316174838, "coverage": 0.9248042789191053, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9471743524889474, "spot_peer_score": 1.1982174883018595, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": -30.069226736231712, "peer_archived_score": 12.319573316174838, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.1982174883018595, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Politico September 22, 2025: [Tables turn for Democrats as they use shutdown for leverage](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/22/democrats-shutdown-leverage-00574029)\n\n> On one side is the minority party, using what little leverage it has — a looming government funding deadline — to push for priorities it can’t enact otherwise. On the other is the majority, insisting a short-term funding punt is no place for negotiation.\n\n> If that sounds familiar, that’s because just such a scenario has played out dozens of times on Capitol Hill over the past decade and a half — usually with Republicans pushing for policy concessions and Democrats insisting on a “clean” stopgap.\n\n> Not this time. The roles have been reversed between the two parties as Congress [barrels toward a government shutdown](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/19/government-shutdown-standoff-senate-vote-00573168) on Oct. 1 with no obvious off-ramp in sight.\n\nThe Hill September 19, 2025: [Trump predicts government could shut down ‘for a period of time’](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5513157-trump-predicts-government-shutdown/)\n\n> President Trump on Friday predicted the government would shut down “for a period of time” amid an impasse in the Senate between Republicans and Democrats.\n\n> Trump expressed some pessimism about the two sides reaching an agreement that can garner 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans have 53 seats in the chamber, meaning at least seven Democrats will need to support a funding measure to keep the government open." }, { "id": 39998, "title": "Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?", "short_title": "Will California's Proposition 50 pass in the 2025 election?", "url_title": "Will California's Proposition 50 pass in the 2025 election?", "slug": "will-californias-proposition-50-pass-in-the-2025-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:24.305579Z", "published_at": "2025-09-21T19:48:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:19:00.476788Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:24.523079Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-21T21:18:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-21T21:18:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-21T19:48:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T07:39:57.390313Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T07:39:57.390313Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39539, "title": "Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?", "created_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:24.306259Z", "open_time": "2025-09-21T19:48:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-21T21:18:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-21T21:18:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-21T21:18:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-21T21:18:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In July 2025, Texas [gerrymandered](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/23/texas-passes-congressional-map-gerrymander-00519116) its electoral map to gain Republicans five seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections (though as Nate Silver [points out](https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-many-seats-will-texas-redistricting), there are scenarios in which the gains may be less). This has set off a [redistricting tit for tat](https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-can-win-the-redistricting), with California governor Gavin Newsom planning its own redistricting to offset it. \n\nThe new electoral map, which was passed by California's legislature in August 2025, is [required](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-redistricting-gavin-newsom-vote/) by California law to be approved by voters. There has been opposition, such as former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger [campaiging](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2025/09/16/why-the-governator-could-derail-prop-50-00565187) against the measure. A recent poll [found](https://norcalpublicmedia.org/2025082698963/news-feed/uc-berkeley-poll-finds-more-california-voters-support-prop-50-than-oppose) California likely voters supporting the measure 48-32.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39989,\"question_id\":39530}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if California Proposition 50 passes in the state's 2025 election, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Please note that this question is looking only at whether the ballot measure passes. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.", "post_id": 39998, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758487048.650337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758487048.650337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6550942167519502 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In July 2025, Texas [gerrymandered](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/23/texas-passes-congressional-map-gerrymander-00519116) its electoral map to gain Republicans five seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections (though as Nate Silver [points out](https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-many-seats-will-texas-redistricting), there are scenarios in which the gains may be less). This has set off a [redistricting tit for tat](https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-can-win-the-redistricting), with California governor Gavin Newsom planning its own redistricting to offset it. \n\nThe new electoral map, which was passed by California's legislature in August 2025, is [required](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-redistricting-gavin-newsom-vote/) by California law to be approved by voters. There has been opposition, such as former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger [campaiging](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2025/09/16/why-the-governator-could-derail-prop-50-00565187) against the measure. A recent poll [found](https://norcalpublicmedia.org/2025082698963/news-feed/uc-berkeley-poll-finds-more-california-voters-support-prop-50-than-oppose) California likely voters supporting the measure 48-32.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39989,\"question_id\":39530}}`" }, { "id": 39996, "title": "Will any of these listed US federal government officials be out of their position before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will any of these US federal government officials be out before October 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will any of these US federal government officials be out before October 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-any-of-these-us-federal-government-officials-be-out-before-october-1-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:23.443408Z", "published_at": "2025-09-19T23:19:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-07T10:21:08.015250Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:23.643020Z", "comment_count": 97, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-20T00:49:17Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-20T00:49:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-20T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-19T23:19:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T07:39:57.390313Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T07:39:57.390313Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39537, "title": "Will any of these listed US federal government officials be out of their position before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:23.443876Z", "open_time": "2025-09-19T23:19:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-20T00:49:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-20T00:49:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-20T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-06T16:35:37.006092Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-20T00:49:17Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-20T00:49:17Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump's first administration was notable for a [striking](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/) amount of turnover in all four years. By contrast, Joe Biden's turnover rate [was](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-biden-administration/) much lower, with Trump [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/biden-trump-first-presidential-debate-2024-election/card/trump-knocks-biden-for-not-firing-people-bwM4mGEdjjjYg5HwlKgV?gaa_at=eafs\\&gaa_n=ASWzDAiUmOXBO10XWmUng3R_zrqM9BR9qeSdR3zfF6MQ7m2AR-P20BPm-8Z8-SBTyU0%3D\\&gaa_ts=68c81fb5\\&gaa_sig=hGGYBoZMnGNabxhc0G0oi3qVxtuXdYbiiurZiH7JJpYh29wtQmJquKm7366ubo2H78dIPSTtOduasHthbVDAaQ%3D%3D) about Biden, \"He doesn’t fire people. I’ve never seen him fire people.\" Trump's second term, similar to his first, has been [marked](https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/trump-turnover-2-0-tracking-whos-out-of-trumps-second-term) by sometimes rapid departures. Throughout the federal government, over 50,000 workers [had been let go](https://www.cnn.com/politics/tracking-federal-workforce-firings-dg) by the new administration as of July 2025. See also the [Trump firings tracker](https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/tracking-trumps-unprecedented-often-illegal-firings-of-political-appointees-and-watchdogs/). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39892,\"question_id\":39437}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any of the officials listed in the Fine Print leaves their position, announces they will leave their position, or whose employer announces that they have left or will leave their position, after September 14, 2025 and before October 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "The list (with 100 roles) is as follows:\n\n| Cabinet Secretary | Incumbent |\n| --------------------------- | --------------------- |\n| State | Marco Rubio |\n| Treasury | Scott Bessent |\n| War | Peter Hegseth |\n| Justice (Attorney General) | Pamela (Pam) Bondi |\n| Interior | Doug Burgum |\n| Labor | Lori Chavez‑DeRemer |\n| Health & Human Services | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. |\n| Commerce | Howard Lutnick |\n| Education | Linda McMahon |\n| Homeland Security | Kristi Noem |\n| Agriculture | Brooke Rollins |\n| Transportation | Sean Duffy |\n| Housing & Urban Development | Eric Scott Turner |\n| Energy | Christopher Wright |\n| Veterans Affairs | Doug Collins |\n\n| Cabinet-level positions | Incumbent |\n| ------------------------------------- | -------------- |\n| Director of National Intelligence | Tulsi Gabbard |\n| Director, Central Intelligence Agency | John Ratcliffe |\n| U.S. Trade Representative | Jamieson Greer |\n| EPA Administrator | Lee Zeldin |\n| SBA Administrator | Kelly Loeffler |\n| OMB Director | Russell Vought |\n| U.N. Ambassador | Dorothy Shea |\n\n| Employer & Title | Incumbent |\n| ----------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------- |\n| Securities and Exchange Commission Chair | Paul S. Atkins |\n| Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner | Hester M. Peirce |\n| Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner | Caroline A. Crenshaw |\n| Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner | Mark T. Uyeda |\n| Federal Trade Commission Chair | Andrew N. Ferguson |\n| Federal Trade Commission Commissioner | Melissa Holyoak |\n| Federal Trade Commission Commissioner | Mark R. Meador |\n| Federal Communications Commission Chair | Brendan Carr |\n| Federal Communications Commission Commissioner | Anna M. Gomez |\n| Federal Communications Commission Commissioner | Olivia Trusty |\n| Director of the National Security Agency (NSA) | William J. Hartman |\n| Commodity Futures Trading Commission Acting Chair | Caroline D. Pham |\n| Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chair | David Rosner |\n| Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Lindsay S. See |\n| Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Judy W. Chang |\n| Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chair | David A. Wright |\n| Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Annie Caputo |\n| Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Bradley R. Crowell |\n| Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Matthew J. Marzano |\n| Federal Election Commission Commissioner | James E. \"Trey\" Trainor III |\n| Federal Election Commission Commissioner | Shana M. Broussard |\n| Federal Election Commission Commissioner | James E. \"Trey\" Trainor III |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chair | Jerome H. Powell |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chair | Philip N. Jefferson |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chair for Supervision | Michelle W. Bowman |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Governor | Michael S. Barr |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Governor | Lisa D. Cook |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Governor | Christopher J. Waller |\n| White House Chief of Staff | Susie Wiles |\n| White House Press Secretary | Karoline Leavitt |\n| DOJ (FBI) Director | Kash Patel |\n| DOJ (FBI) Deputy Director | Dan Bongino |\n| Office of Science and Technology Policy Director | Michael Kratsios |\n| White House National Security Advisor | Marco Rubio |\n| HHS (CMS) CMCS Director & Deputy Administrator | Caprice Knapp |\n| HHS (CMS) CMCS Deputy Director | Anne Marie Costello |\n| HHS (CMS) CMCS Deputy Director | Sara Vitolo |\n| Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) | John Ratcliffe |\n| DHS (FEMA) Acting Administrator | David Richardson |\n| HHS (CDC) Director | Susan Monarez |\n| National Institutes of Health Chief Scientific Officer | Leighton Chan |\n| Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Chief Science Officer | Althea Grant-Lenzy |\n| NASA Acting Administrator | Sean Duffy |\n| Executive Office (DOGE) Administrator | Amy Gleason |\n| OMB Deputy Director | Dan Bishop |\n| OMB Deputy Director for Management | Eric Ueland |\n| Library of Congress Register of Copyrights | Shira Perlmutter |\n| USDA Under Secretary of Agriculture for Food Safety | Jose Emilio Esteban |\n| USDA Under Secretary of Agriculture for Natural Resources & Environment | Homer Wilkes |\n| USDA Under Secretary of Agriculture for Rural Development | Basil Gooden |\n| National Technical Information Service Director | Jeremiah Jones |\n| Bureau of Economic Analysis Director | Vipin Arora |\n| US Patent & Trademark Office Director | Coke Morgan Stewart |\n| US Patent & Trademark Office Deputy Director | Will Covey |\n| National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chief Scientist | Steve Thur |\n| NOAA Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services | Stephen Volz |\n| NOAA National Ocean Service Director | Nicole LeBoeuf |\n| National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director | Michael Farrar |\n| National Weather Service Director | Ken Graham |\n| National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center Director | Wassila Thiaw |\n| NWS National Hurricane Center Director | Michael Brennan |\n| Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Assistant Secretary | Michael Goff |\n| DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Assistant Secretary | Brad Crabtree |\n| Government National Mortgage Association Senior Vice President | Gregory A. Keith |\n| U.S. Geological Survey Director | Sarah J. Ryker |\n| U.S. Geological Survey Chief Scientist | David Applegate |\n| Bureau of Land Management Principal Deputy Director | Bill Groffy |\n| OSHA Acting Assistant Secretary of Labor | Amanda Wood Laihow |\n| Bureau of Labor Statistics Deputy Commissioner | William J. Wiatrowski |\n| Federal Highway Administration Executive Director | Gloria Shepherd |\n| Food & Drug Administration Chief Scientist | Steven Kozlowski |\n| Environmental Protection Agency Chief Scientist | Maureen Gwinn |\n| National Science Foundation Chief of Staff | Brian Stone |\n| National Science Foundation Chief Science Officer | Simon Malcomber |\n| Internal Revenue Service Commissioner | Scott Bessent |\n| Federal Election Commission Chair | Shana M. Broussard |\n| Federal Election Commission Commissioner | Dara Lindenbaum |\n| Securities & Exchange Commission Commissioner | Caroline Crenshaw |\n\nTerminations (e.g., being fired by President Trump) only count if the individual is out of their position as delineated in the main Resolution Criteria. For example, Lisa Cook, who Trump [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-fires-federal-reserve-board-member-lisa-cook/) he fired in August 2025, as of September 14, 2025 is [litigating](https://apnews.com/article/trump-lisa-cook-federal-reserve-779e2c05762400b5134cd1543b0358ae) her termination and is still [listed](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/cook.htm) as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Thus, she is not considered to be out of her position for purposes of this question.\n\nBeing placed on administrative leave, as has [occurred](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stephen-volz-98b6a3b1_dear-colleagues-i-didnt-expect-to-be-communicating-activity-7355653642575572992-ZG3x/) with NOAA's Satellite and Information Systems Director Stephen Volz, does not count as long as the individual continues to be legally employed in the role. \n\nIf a listed individual is Acting in the role, it is treated as a synonym for being in the role itself. For example, Dorothy Shea is the acting United States Ambassador to the United Nations, a position that requires confirmation by the US Senate, and for purposes of this question she is treated as being in the role. \n\nPromotion within the same agency, such being promoted from Deputy Director to Director, counts as long as the individual leaves the old role as defined in the Resolution Criteria.", "post_id": 39996, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758328516.602262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758328516.602262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.36740187490270326 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 19.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -76.08290265997063, "peer_score": 2.583060771988601, "coverage": 0.9790585742614888, "relative_legacy_score": -0.18433169965806567, "weighted_coverage": 0.9790585742614888, "spot_peer_score": 1.950547819981212, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "baseline_archived_score": -76.08290265997063, "peer_archived_score": 2.583060771988601, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.18433169965806567, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.950547819981212, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump's first administration was notable for a [striking](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/) amount of turnover in all four years. By contrast, Joe Biden's turnover rate [was](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-biden-administration/) much lower, with Trump [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/biden-trump-first-presidential-debate-2024-election/card/trump-knocks-biden-for-not-firing-people-bwM4mGEdjjjYg5HwlKgV?gaa_at=eafs\\&gaa_n=ASWzDAiUmOXBO10XWmUng3R_zrqM9BR9qeSdR3zfF6MQ7m2AR-P20BPm-8Z8-SBTyU0%3D\\&gaa_ts=68c81fb5\\&gaa_sig=hGGYBoZMnGNabxhc0G0oi3qVxtuXdYbiiurZiH7JJpYh29wtQmJquKm7366ubo2H78dIPSTtOduasHthbVDAaQ%3D%3D) about Biden, \"He doesn’t fire people. I’ve never seen him fire people.\" Trump's second term, similar to his first, has been [marked](https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/trump-turnover-2-0-tracking-whos-out-of-trumps-second-term) by sometimes rapid departures. Throughout the federal government, over 50,000 workers [had been let go](https://www.cnn.com/politics/tracking-federal-workforce-firings-dg) by the new administration as of July 2025. See also the [Trump firings tracker](https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/tracking-trumps-unprecedented-often-illegal-firings-of-political-appointees-and-watchdogs/). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39892,\"question_id\":39437}}`" }, { "id": 39993, "title": "Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?", "short_title": "Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?", "url_title": "Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?", "slug": "will-time-magazine-name-a-human-individual-as-its-2025-person-of-the-year", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T23:25:54.351491Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T00:09:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T15:53:15.953928Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-17T00:10:32.582782Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-12T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-13T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-18T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T12:44:28.036451Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T12:44:28.036451Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39533, "title": "Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T23:25:54.351886Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-20T00:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-20T00:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-13T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-12T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-12T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For base rate information, please see Wikipedia [Time Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year). Prediction markets such as [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtime/times-person-of-the-year/kxtime-25) have, at the time of this question, assigned a 38% probability to the non-human entities of AI or ChatGPT winning in 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Time Magazine names a specific human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year. ", "fine_print": "Other situations in which Time does not name a specific human individual do not count and would resolve this question as **No**. For example:\n\n* AI or ChatGPT would not count, as they are not human.\n* Non-human selections such as The Endangered Earth (from 1988) or The Computer (from 1982) do not count.\n* Collective entities such as The Silence Breakers (2017) or The Guardians (2018) do not count.\n* Non-specific humans such as You (2006) or The Protester (2011) do not count.\n* Concepts such as The Spirit of Ukraine (2022) do not count.\n\nIf Time names a specific human individual along with any non-qualifying selection (for example Sam Altman and ChatGPT), that will count.\n\nMore than one specific, named individual (such as Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in 2020) will count.", "post_id": 39993, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761580385.402717, "end_time": 1761777468.307, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761580385.402717, "end_time": 1761777468.307, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.6550424187689959 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07331325067154816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05037755693647347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1309525043856845, 0.0, 0.9448760261359195, 0.0, 0.007784236121081673, 0.20166624412914988, 0.0, 3.4339897775881427, 0.2758521521053194, 0.0, 3.709771263454864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6571765081177614, 0.0, 0.33824726967271557, 0.0, 0.34684624582665485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03798960286256768, 0.009856869823379553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 306, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For base rate information, please see Wikipedia [Time Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year). Prediction markets such as [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtime/times-person-of-the-year/kxtime-25) have, at the time of this question, assigned a 38% probability to the non-human entities of AI or ChatGPT winning in 2025." }, { "id": 39992, "title": "Will Israel participate in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026?", "short_title": "Will Israel participate in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026?", "url_title": "Will Israel participate in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026?", "slug": "will-israel-participate-in-the-eurovision-song-contest-2026", "author_id": 177587, "author_username": "miguel.lima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T22:51:36.731853Z", "published_at": "2025-09-21T15:07:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T15:08:51.058673Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-21T15:08:07.073998Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-15T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-26T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39532, "title": "Will Israel participate in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T22:51:36.732279Z", "open_time": "2025-09-26T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-15T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## **1. Eurovision Song Contest History and Israel Participation**\n\nThe Eurovision Song Contest, organized annually by the **European Broadcasting Union (EBU)** since 1956, brings together broadcasters from across Europe (and beyond) to compete with one song each. Israel has participated since 1973, winning four times, but its presence has often been controversial, drawing boycott campaigns and political debate.\n\nEach year broadcasters must confirm their participation; the host country and the “Big Five” (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom) qualify directly for the Grand Final, while all other countries, including Israel, compete in the semi-finals.\n\n## **2. Hamas Terrorist Attack and Gaza Genocide**\n\nIsrael’s response to 2023 attacks has been qualified as genocide by the IAGS (International Association of Genocide Scholars). [IAGS Resolution on the Situation in Gaz](https://genocidescholars.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/IAGS-Resolution-on-Gaza-FINAL.pdf)a.\n\nThe genocide has received strong public rejection in many of the countries participating in Eurovision. [YouGov study at EuroNews](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/06/06/does-the-public-support-the-government-of-israel-in-western-european-countries)\n\nGovernment positions have varied widely: some political parties and officials have called for BDS-aligned measures against Israel, while others have expressed support for Israel’s right to respond to Hamas or chosen to remain largely silent.\n\n### **2.1 Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) Movement**\n\nActivists, cultural figures, political parties, and NGOs have joined the BDS movement or similar initiatives to press for Israel's exclusion. Over 70 former Eurovision contestants signed an open letter in 2025 demanding that Israel (and its broadcaster Kan) be banned in connection with accusations over its actions in Gaza. [Letter and signatories](https://artistsforpalestine.org.uk/2025/05/06/former-eurovision-contestants-demand-exclusion-of-israel-from-contest/)\n\nIn several countries local campaigns pressured their country broadcaster to withdraw from Eurovision and/or to request EBU to exclude Israel.\n\n## **3. Requests by Broadcasters / Countries to Discuss Israel Exclusion**\n\nIn 2024, several countries publicly called for Israel’s exclusion or threatened withdrawal, citing humanitarian concerns. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest_2024#Calls_for_exclusion). In 2025, again several countries called for exclusion of Israel. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest_2025#Calls_for_exclusion)\n\nAfter Eurovision 2025, several broadcasters including RTVE, VRT, RTÉ, and others requested audits and reforms of the televoting system, citing transparency concerns after unusually high points for Israel, while some also questioned Israel’s future participation. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest_2025#After_Eurovision)\n\n## **4. EBU Assembly Discussing Israel Participation**\n\nAt the EBU Assembly, several member broadcasters called for a “serious and in-depth debate” on whether Israel should be allowed to participate in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.The EBU acknowledged these concerns and said members had raised “deeply held views” but declined to vote in July, instead committing to further consultation among members.\n\nThe EBU has extended the deadline during which members (broadcasters) can withdraw without penalty until mid-December 2025, to allow time for decisions in light of this controversy.\n\n(Refer to: [EBU Statement on Eurovision Song Contest General Assembly Discussion](https://www.ebu.ch/news/2025/07/ebu-statement-on-eurovision-song-contest-general-assembly-discussion))\n\n## **5. Announcements of Conditional Withdrawal by Several Countries**\n\nSome broadcasters have said they will *not participate* in Eurovision 2026 **if** Israel is allowed in. This is not just discussion: it’s a conditional withdrawal. Very clear statements have been officially communicated during September 2025:\n\n* RTÉ (**Ireland**): “*Ireland will not take part in the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest, if the participation of Israel goes ahead*” [RTE](https://www.rte.ie/entertainment/2025/0911/1532957-rte-eurovision/) 12<sup>th</sup> September\n* RTV SLO (**Slovenia)**: “*If Israel participates in the Eurovision Song Contest, we will not take part in it, is the clear position of RTV Slovenia.”* [RTV SLO](https://www.rtvslo.si/zabava-in-slog/glasba/ema/ce-bo-izrael-nastopil-na-evroviziji-slovenije-ne-bo/757441) 12<sup>th</sup> September\n* AVROTROS (**Netherlands**): “*AVROTROS' participation in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is not possible as long as Israel is admitted by the EBU*” [AVROTROS](https://www.avrotros.nl/article/avrotros-trekt-grens-bij-songfestival-2026~1176/)\n* RTVE (**Spain**): “*Spain will withdraw from Eurovision if Israel continues in the contest.*” [RTVE](https://www.rtve.es/contenidos/documentos/decision_RTVE_eurovision.pdf) 16<sup>th</sup> September\n\nOther broadcasters (e.g. in **Iceland** and **Belgium**) have expressed strong concerns or conditional positions but, as of 16<sup>th</sup> September 2025, the four countries above are the ones with official withdrawal announcements tied explicitly to Israel’s participation.\n\n## **6. Israel’s Announced Intention to Participate**\n\nThe Israeli public broadcaster **Kan** has confirmed its intention to participate in Eurovision 2026.\n\nKan’s CEO, Golan Yochpaz, has defended Israel's participation amid the boycott threats, arguing that Eurovision must remain non-political, and that Israel should not be excluded. [Jerusalem Post](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/culture/article-867564?utm_source=chatgpt.com) September 15th 2025\n\n## **7. EBU General Assembly**\n\nThe issue is expected to be revisited formally at the next General Assembly in **December 2025**, when a decision or resolution around Israel’s participation may be made.\n\nSome media reports have suggested the EBU might propose that Israel compete under a *neutral flag*, or withdraw temporarily, but Israel and the EBU have denied formal offers of those alternatives. [Eurovoix news](https://eurovoix.com/2025/09/15/eurovision-2026-ebu-denies-reports-about-israel-competing-under-a-neutral-flag/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\n## **8. EBU and Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) rules**\n\nThe ESC is a non-political event (see the ESC rules [here](https://eurovision.tv/about/rules)), however, in 2022 Russian broadcasters were [suspended](https://www.ebu.ch/news/2022/02/ebu-statement-on-russia-in-the-eurovision-song-contest-2022) following the invasion of Ukraine. This was the only expulsion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolves as **Yes** if Israel is officially listed among the participants in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) **and** Israel performs in one of the two semi-finals. The question will resolve as **No** if:\n\n* Israel is not listed by the EBU, withdraws before the contest, or is disqualified such that it does not perform in a semi-final.\n* Israel artists compete under a neutral flag.", "fine_print": "Should the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 be cancelled such that no semi-final event takes place, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 39992, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760972920.790324, "end_time": 1762776247.208, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760972920.790324, "end_time": 1762776247.208, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.760993240235505 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## **1. Eurovision Song Contest History and Israel Participation**\n\nThe Eurovision Song Contest, organized annually by the **European Broadcasting Union (EBU)** since 1956, brings together broadcasters from across Europe (and beyond) to compete with one song each. Israel has participated since 1973, winning four times, but its presence has often been controversial, drawing boycott campaigns and political debate.\n\nEach year broadcasters must confirm their participation; the host country and the “Big Five” (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom) qualify directly for the Grand Final, while all other countries, including Israel, compete in the semi-finals.\n\n## **2. Hamas Terrorist Attack and Gaza Genocide**\n\nIsrael’s response to 2023 attacks has been qualified as genocide by the IAGS (International Association of Genocide Scholars). [IAGS Resolution on the Situation in Gaz](https://genocidescholars.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/IAGS-Resolution-on-Gaza-FINAL.pdf)a.\n\nThe genocide has received strong public rejection in many of the countries participating in Eurovision. [YouGov study at EuroNews](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/06/06/does-the-public-support-the-government-of-israel-in-western-european-countries)\n\nGovernment positions have varied widely: some political parties and officials have called for BDS-aligned measures against Israel, while others have expressed support for Israel’s right to respond to Hamas or chosen to remain largely silent.\n\n### **2.1 Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) Movement**\n\nActivists, cultural figures, political parties, and NGOs have joined the BDS movement or similar initiatives to press for Israel's exclusion. Over 70 former Eurovision contestants signed an open letter in 2025 demanding that Israel (and its broadcaster Kan) be banned in connection with accusations over its actions in Gaza. [Letter and signatories](https://artistsforpalestine.org.uk/2025/05/06/former-eurovision-contestants-demand-exclusion-of-israel-from-contest/)\n\nIn several countries local campaigns pressured their country broadcaster to withdraw from Eurovision and/or to request EBU to exclude Israel.\n\n## **3. Requests by Broadcasters / Countries to Discuss Israel Exclusion**\n\nIn 2024, several countries publicly called for Israel’s exclusion or threatened withdrawal, citing humanitarian concerns. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest_2024#Calls_for_exclusion). In 2025, again several countries called for exclusion of Israel. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest_2025#Calls_for_exclusion)\n\nAfter Eurovision 2025, several broadcasters including RTVE, VRT, RTÉ, and others requested audits and reforms of the televoting system, citing transparency concerns after unusually high points for Israel, while some also questioned Israel’s future participation. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest_2025#After_Eurovision)\n\n## **4. EBU Assembly Discussing Israel Participation**\n\nAt the EBU Assembly, several member broadcasters called for a “serious and in-depth debate” on whether Israel should be allowed to participate in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.The EBU acknowledged these concerns and said members had raised “deeply held views” but declined to vote in July, instead committing to further consultation among members.\n\nThe EBU has extended the deadline during which members (broadcasters) can withdraw without penalty until mid-December 2025, to allow time for decisions in light of this controversy.\n\n(Refer to: [EBU Statement on Eurovision Song Contest General Assembly Discussion](https://www.ebu.ch/news/2025/07/ebu-statement-on-eurovision-song-contest-general-assembly-discussion))\n\n## **5. Announcements of Conditional Withdrawal by Several Countries**\n\nSome broadcasters have said they will *not participate* in Eurovision 2026 **if** Israel is allowed in. This is not just discussion: it’s a conditional withdrawal. Very clear statements have been officially communicated during September 2025:\n\n* RTÉ (**Ireland**): “*Ireland will not take part in the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest, if the participation of Israel goes ahead*” [RTE](https://www.rte.ie/entertainment/2025/0911/1532957-rte-eurovision/) 12<sup>th</sup> September\n* RTV SLO (**Slovenia)**: “*If Israel participates in the Eurovision Song Contest, we will not take part in it, is the clear position of RTV Slovenia.”* [RTV SLO](https://www.rtvslo.si/zabava-in-slog/glasba/ema/ce-bo-izrael-nastopil-na-evroviziji-slovenije-ne-bo/757441) 12<sup>th</sup> September\n* AVROTROS (**Netherlands**): “*AVROTROS' participation in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is not possible as long as Israel is admitted by the EBU*” [AVROTROS](https://www.avrotros.nl/article/avrotros-trekt-grens-bij-songfestival-2026~1176/)\n* RTVE (**Spain**): “*Spain will withdraw from Eurovision if Israel continues in the contest.*” [RTVE](https://www.rtve.es/contenidos/documentos/decision_RTVE_eurovision.pdf) 16<sup>th</sup> September\n\nOther broadcasters (e.g. in **Iceland** and **Belgium**) have expressed strong concerns or conditional positions but, as of 16<sup>th</sup> September 2025, the four countries above are the ones with official withdrawal announcements tied explicitly to Israel’s participation.\n\n## **6. Israel’s Announced Intention to Participate**\n\nThe Israeli public broadcaster **Kan** has confirmed its intention to participate in Eurovision 2026.\n\nKan’s CEO, Golan Yochpaz, has defended Israel's participation amid the boycott threats, arguing that Eurovision must remain non-political, and that Israel should not be excluded. [Jerusalem Post](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/culture/article-867564?utm_source=chatgpt.com) September 15th 2025\n\n## **7. EBU General Assembly**\n\nThe issue is expected to be revisited formally at the next General Assembly in **December 2025**, when a decision or resolution around Israel’s participation may be made.\n\nSome media reports have suggested the EBU might propose that Israel compete under a *neutral flag*, or withdraw temporarily, but Israel and the EBU have denied formal offers of those alternatives. [Eurovoix news](https://eurovoix.com/2025/09/15/eurovision-2026-ebu-denies-reports-about-israel-competing-under-a-neutral-flag/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\n## **8. EBU and Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) rules**\n\nThe ESC is a non-political event (see the ESC rules [here](https://eurovision.tv/about/rules)), however, in 2022 Russian broadcasters were [suspended](https://www.ebu.ch/news/2022/02/ebu-statement-on-russia-in-the-eurovision-song-contest-2022) following the invasion of Ukraine. This was the only expulsion." }, { "id": 39991, "title": "Will at least one 2025 WNBA semifinal series end in a sweep (3-0)", "short_title": "WBNA Semifinal Sweep", "url_title": "WBNA Semifinal Sweep", "slug": "wbna-semifinal-sweep", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T22:42:34.251167Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T22:41:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-26T19:29:08.002508Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-16T22:43:00.736309Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T22:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T22:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-28T22:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T19:29:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T22:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": 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"2025-09-16T20:50:46.991349Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T10:09:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-20T13:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-20T13:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In July 2025, Texas [gerrymandered](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/23/texas-passes-congressional-map-gerrymander-00519116) its electoral map to gain Republicans five seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections (though as Nate Silver [points out](https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-many-seats-will-texas-redistricting), there are scenarios in which the gains may be less). This has set off a [redistricting tit for tat](https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-can-win-the-redistricting), with California governor Gavin Newsom planning its own redistricting to offset it. \n\nThe new electoral map, which was passed by California's legislature in August 2025, is [required](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-redistricting-gavin-newsom-vote/) by California law to be approved by voters. There has been opposition, such as former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger [campaiging](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2025/09/16/why-the-governator-could-derail-prop-50-00565187) against the measure. A recent poll [found](https://norcalpublicmedia.org/2025082698963/news-feed/uc-berkeley-poll-finds-more-california-voters-support-prop-50-than-oppose) California likely voters supporting the measure 48-32.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if California Proposition 50 passes in the state's 2025 election, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Please note that this question is looking only at whether the ballot measure passes. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.", "post_id": 39989, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761642312.217403, "end_time": 1761710749.345, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761642312.217403, "end_time": 1761710749.345, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.7327466962412265 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021518476613089726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011157123373592481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.262708441507357, 0.09579000750583701, 0.30211615055439345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5747829851517097, 0.0, 0.029133191509986833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4059684889671328, 0.22659881065625792, 1.3809077165652948, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7931590476380825, 0.0, 2.4339899532963187, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2244275003901677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6983056029809626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009168893311555158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6558216817053191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7514325496251095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9320576437636137 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 368, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In July 2025, Texas [gerrymandered](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/23/texas-passes-congressional-map-gerrymander-00519116) its electoral map to gain Republicans five seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections (though as Nate Silver [points out](https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-many-seats-will-texas-redistricting), there are scenarios in which the gains may be less). This has set off a [redistricting tit for tat](https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-can-win-the-redistricting), with California governor Gavin Newsom planning its own redistricting to offset it. \n\nThe new electoral map, which was passed by California's legislature in August 2025, is [required](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-redistricting-gavin-newsom-vote/) by California law to be approved by voters. There has been opposition, such as former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger [campaiging](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2025/09/16/why-the-governator-could-derail-prop-50-00565187) against the measure. A recent poll [found](https://norcalpublicmedia.org/2025082698963/news-feed/uc-berkeley-poll-finds-more-california-voters-support-prop-50-than-oppose) California likely voters supporting the measure 48-32." }, { "id": 39988, "title": "Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?", "short_title": "Will Bondi be out as Attorney General before Mar 2026?", "url_title": "Will Bondi be out as Attorney General before Mar 2026?", "slug": "will-bondi-be-out-as-attorney-general-before-mar-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T18:11:35.981392Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T11:01:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T12:43:12.965005Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-17T11:02:24Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T12:43:13.502218Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T12:43:13.502218Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T12:43:13.572342Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39529, "title": "Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T18:11:35.981867Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-20T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 15, 2025, Attorney General Pam Bondi [said](https://x.com/theblaze/status/1967767257427386430), \"There's free speech and then there's hate speech, and there is no place, especially now, especially after what happened to Charlie \\[Kirk], in our society... We will absolutely target you, go after you, if you are targeting anyone with hate speech.\" \n\nThe remarks brought quick response from conservative commentators such as journalist Brit Hume, who [said](https://x.com/brithume/status/1967780820548194654), \"Someone needs to explain to Ms. Bondi that so-called 'hate speech,' repulsive though it may be, is protected by the First Amendment. She should know this.\" [Other](https://x.com/roddreher/status/1967895606233534974) [commentators](https://x.com/RubinReport/status/1967929801026531614) went further and [called](https://x.com/MattWalshBlog/status/1967955017551478895) on her to resign or be fired. \n\nThe controversy comes two months after a [poll](https://www.newsweek.com/pam-bondis-approval-rating-plummets-epstein-controversy-poll-2101243) showing Bondi with low approval ratings (29%) amid contradictory statements she made about the existence of the Jeffrey Epstein [files](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein_client_list). \n\nBondi was [confirmed](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations/Trump_47_cabinet.htm) in February 2025 in a 54-46 Senate vote, putting her in a category--along with Pete Hegseth and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.--of nominees who were confirmed with little bipartisan support. \n\nIn President Trump's first administration, there were four attorneys general: \n\n* Attorney General Jeff Sessions was confirmed February 8, 2017 and fired November 7, 2018.\n* Sessions' replacement, acting AG Matthew Whitaker, served November 7, 2018 through February 14, 2019.\n* William Barr was confirmed February 14, 20219 and resigned December 23, 2020.\n* Jeffrey Rosen served as acting AG for the final month of Trump's term. \n\nSee also from Politico: [‘That is not the law’: Bondi promised to target ‘hate speech.’ She’s facing backlash from all corners.](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/16/pam-bondi-first-amendment-hate-speech-prosecution-00566424)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2026, Pamela Jo Bondi ceases to be the United States Attorney General (AG), announces she will cease to be AG, or the US President or the US Department of Justice announces that she has ceased or will cease to be AG.", "fine_print": "Regardless of the circumstances, the question will not resolve as **Yes** as long as Bondi continues to legally hold the office of AG (for example if she is on medical leave or administrative leave).\n\nIn case of an announcement of Bondi leaving her AG position at a future date, the planned date of her departure must be before July 1, 2026 for the question to resolve as **Yes**. 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We will absolutely target you, go after you, if you are targeting anyone with hate speech.\" \n\nThe remarks brought quick response from conservative commentators such as journalist Brit Hume, who [said](https://x.com/brithume/status/1967780820548194654), \"Someone needs to explain to Ms. Bondi that so-called 'hate speech,' repulsive though it may be, is protected by the First Amendment. She should know this.\" [Other](https://x.com/roddreher/status/1967895606233534974) [commentators](https://x.com/RubinReport/status/1967929801026531614) went further and [called](https://x.com/MattWalshBlog/status/1967955017551478895) on her to resign or be fired. \n\nThe controversy comes two months after a [poll](https://www.newsweek.com/pam-bondis-approval-rating-plummets-epstein-controversy-poll-2101243) showing Bondi with low approval ratings (29%) amid contradictory statements she made about the existence of the Jeffrey Epstein [files](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein_client_list). \n\nBondi was [confirmed](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations/Trump_47_cabinet.htm) in February 2025 in a 54-46 Senate vote, putting her in a category--along with Pete Hegseth and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.--of nominees who were confirmed with little bipartisan support. \n\nIn President Trump's first administration, there were four attorneys general: \n\n* Attorney General Jeff Sessions was confirmed February 8, 2017 and fired November 7, 2018.\n* Sessions' replacement, acting AG Matthew Whitaker, served November 7, 2018 through February 14, 2019.\n* William Barr was confirmed February 14, 20219 and resigned December 23, 2020.\n* Jeffrey Rosen served as acting AG for the final month of Trump's term. \n\nSee also from Politico: [‘That is not the law’: Bondi promised to target ‘hate speech.’ She’s facing backlash from all corners.](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/16/pam-bondi-first-amendment-hate-speech-prosecution-00566424)" }, { "id": 39986, "title": "Will the interest in \"ios 26 new features\" be greater on 2025-09-26 than on 2025-09-17 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"ios 26 new features\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"ios 26 new features\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-ios-26-new-features-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:40.075183Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T13:58:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:51:59.434701Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:40.336006Z", "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T15:28:48Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T15:28:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T02:58:13Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T13:58:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39527, "title": "Will the interest in \"ios 26 new features\" be greater on 2025-09-26 than on 2025-09-17 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:40.075605Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T13:58:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T15:28:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T15:28:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T02:58:13Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:51:59.042298Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T15:28:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T15:28:48Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “ios 26 new features” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 100; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ios%2026%20new%20features&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"ios 26 new features\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-17\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-26\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ios%2026%20new%20features&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves \"Yes\" if the value on the timeline found at [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ios%2026%20new%20features&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ios%2026%20new%20features&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26) representing 2025-09-26 is greater than the value at 2025-09-17. If it stays the same or decreases, it resolves to \"No\".", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"ios 26 new features\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-27 2025-09-26\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39986, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758122656.843999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.305 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758122656.843999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.305 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7825, 0.2175 ], "means": [ 0.2576453136810279 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 16.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.879214891720906, "peer_score": 8.609946162341046, "coverage": 0.9590273757334109, "relative_legacy_score": -0.021626558271633126, "weighted_coverage": 0.9590273757334109, "spot_peer_score": 8.900203622135662, "spot_baseline_score": 64.61626571578935, "baseline_archived_score": 58.879214891720906, "peer_archived_score": 8.609946162341046, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.021626558271633126, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.900203622135662, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 64.61626571578935 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “ios 26 new features” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 100; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ios%2026%20new%20features&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"ios 26 new features\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-17\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-26\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ios%2026%20new%20features&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26\"}}`" }, { "id": 39985, "title": "Will the interest in \"ben shapiro\" be greater on 2025-09-26 than on 2025-09-17 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"ben shapiro\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"ben shapiro\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-ben-shapiro-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:34.372015Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T23:04:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:00.407638Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:34.675641Z", "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T00:34:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T00:34:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T13:58:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T23:04:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39526, "title": "Will the interest in \"ben shapiro\" be greater on 2025-09-26 than on 2025-09-17 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:34.372420Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T23:04:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T00:34:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T00:34:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T13:58:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:51:59.807610Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T00:34:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T00:34:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “ben shapiro” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 79; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ben%20shapiro&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"ben shapiro\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-17\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-26\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ben%20shapiro&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves \"Yes\" if the value on the timeline found at [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ben%20shapiro&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ben%20shapiro&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26) representing 2025-09-26 is greater than the value at 2025-09-17. If it stays the same or decreases, it resolves to \"No\".", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"ben shapiro\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-27 2025-09-26\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39985, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758067118.24138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3775 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758067118.24138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3775 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3525460128495843 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 21.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 35.66387845659784, "peer_score": 4.945137940697927, "coverage": 0.975418343897219, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0011316245314838868, "weighted_coverage": 0.975418343897219, "spot_peer_score": 5.361454666813949, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 35.66387845659784, "peer_archived_score": 4.945137940697927, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0011316245314838868, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.361454666813949, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “ben shapiro” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 79; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ben%20shapiro&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"ben shapiro\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-17\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-26\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ben%20shapiro&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26\"}}`" }, { "id": 39984, "title": "Will the interest in \"nvidia\" be greater on 2025-09-26 than on 2025-09-18 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"nvidia\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"nvidia\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-nvidia-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:33.814340Z", "published_at": "2025-09-18T20:32:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:01.310861Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:34.096596Z", "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T19:40:41Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T20:32:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39525, "title": "Will the interest in \"nvidia\" be greater on 2025-09-26 than on 2025-09-18 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:33.814732Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T20:32:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T19:40:41Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:00.797647Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “nvidia” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 24; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nvidia&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"nvidia\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-18\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-26\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nvidia&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves \"Yes\" if the value on the timeline found at [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nvidia&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nvidia&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26) representing 2025-09-26 is greater than the value at 2025-09-18. If it stays the same or decreases, it resolves to \"No\".", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"nvidia\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-27 2025-09-26\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39984, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758230889.774137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.345 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758230889.774137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.345 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.655, 0.345 ], "means": [ 0.35412255444813595 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 38.3926824901678, "peer_score": 3.8848168868961874, "coverage": 0.9819266098075443, "relative_legacy_score": -0.039147923649740624, "weighted_coverage": 0.9819266098075443, "spot_peer_score": 3.3687355545120905, "spot_baseline_score": 38.95668117627256, "baseline_archived_score": 38.3926824901678, "peer_archived_score": 3.8848168868961874, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.039147923649740624, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.3687355545120905, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 38.95668117627256 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “nvidia” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 24; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nvidia&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"nvidia\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-18\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-26\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nvidia&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26\"}}`" }, { "id": 39983, "title": "Will the interest in \"ios 18.7\" be greater on 2025-09-27 than on 2025-09-18 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"ios 18.7\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"ios 18.7\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-ios-187-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:33.186471Z", "published_at": "2025-09-18T11:27:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:02.055564Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:33.513181Z", "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T12:57:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T12:57:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T01:15:34Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T11:27:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39524, "title": "Will the interest in \"ios 18.7\" be greater on 2025-09-27 than on 2025-09-18 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:33.186879Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T11:27:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-18T12:57:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-18T12:57:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T01:15:34Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:01.541947Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T12:57:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T12:57:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “ios 18.7” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 100; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ios%2018.7&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"ios 18.7\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-18\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-27\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ios%2018.7&date=2025-08-28%202025-09-27\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves \"Yes\" if the value on the timeline found at [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ios%2018.7&date=2025-08-28%202025-09-27](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ios%2018.7&date=2025-08-28%202025-09-27) representing 2025-09-27 is greater than the value at 2025-09-18. If it stays the same or decreases, it resolves to \"No\".", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"ios 18.7\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-28 2025-09-27\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39983, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758198816.370765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758198816.370765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.24217021475256778 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 60.92819727287744, "peer_score": 2.8014818643773816, "coverage": 0.9840239379582583, "relative_legacy_score": -0.05966940583536122, "weighted_coverage": 0.9840239379582583, "spot_peer_score": 3.323062207638748, "spot_baseline_score": 62.29303509201767, "baseline_archived_score": 60.92819727287744, "peer_archived_score": 2.8014818643773816, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.05966940583536122, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.323062207638748, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 62.29303509201767 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “ios 18.7” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 100; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ios%2018.7&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"ios 18.7\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-18\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-27\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=ios%2018.7&date=2025-08-28%202025-09-27\"}}`" }, { "id": 39982, "title": "Will the interest in \"nintendo direct\" be greater on 2025-09-26 than on 2025-09-17 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"nintendo direct\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"nintendo direct\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-nintendo-direct-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:32.585985Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T00:45:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:02.947167Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:32.897305Z", "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T02:15:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T02:15:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T03:49:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T00:45:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39523, "title": "Will the interest in \"nintendo direct\" be greater on 2025-09-26 than on 2025-09-17 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:32.586447Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T00:45:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T02:15:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T02:15:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T03:49:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:02.336452Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T02:15:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T02:15:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “nintendo direct” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 3; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nintendo%20direct&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"nintendo direct\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-17\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-26\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nintendo%20direct&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves \"Yes\" if the value on the timeline found at [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nintendo%20direct&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nintendo%20direct&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26) representing 2025-09-26 is greater than the value at 2025-09-17. If it stays the same or decreases, it resolves to \"No\".", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"nintendo direct\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-27 2025-09-26\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39982, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758075250.618254, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758075250.618254, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3077209162145871 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 59.115297428014955, "peer_score": 17.178190899853384, "coverage": 0.9700254997942183, "relative_legacy_score": 0.02310216468687784, "weighted_coverage": 0.9700254997942183, "spot_peer_score": 16.587389011109963, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 59.115297428014955, "peer_archived_score": 17.178190899853384, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.02310216468687784, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.587389011109963, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “nintendo direct” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 3; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nintendo%20direct&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"nintendo direct\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-17\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-26\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nintendo%20direct&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26\"}}`" }, { "id": 39981, "title": "Will the interest in \"melissa hortman\" be greater on 2025-09-27 than on 2025-09-16 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"melissa hortman\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"melissa hortman\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-melissa-hortman-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:31.939940Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T16:24:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:03.782619Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:32.291910Z", "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T17:54:23Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T17:54:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T00:32:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T16:24:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39522, "title": "Will the interest in \"melissa hortman\" be greater on 2025-09-27 than on 2025-09-16 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:31.940467Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T16:24:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-16T17:54:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-16T17:54:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T00:32:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:03.180956Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T17:54:23Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T17:54:23Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “melissa hortman” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 25; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=melissa%20hortman&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"melissa hortman\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-16\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-27\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=melissa%20hortman&date=2025-08-28%202025-09-27\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves \"Yes\" if the value on the timeline found at [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=melissa%20hortman&date=2025-08-28%202025-09-27](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=melissa%20hortman&date=2025-08-28%202025-09-27) representing 2025-09-27 is greater than the value at 2025-09-16. If it stays the same or decreases, it resolves to \"No\".", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"melissa hortman\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-28 2025-09-27\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39981, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758044894.036919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758044894.036919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2604844070961718 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.69177303903105, "peer_score": 5.461909385230869, "coverage": 0.9739341698310994, "relative_legacy_score": -0.00689795660652163, "weighted_coverage": 0.9739341698310994, "spot_peer_score": 6.203235956077239, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 56.69177303903105, "peer_archived_score": 5.461909385230869, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.00689795660652163, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.203235956077239, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “melissa hortman” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 25; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=melissa%20hortman&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"melissa hortman\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-16\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-27\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=melissa%20hortman&date=2025-08-28%202025-09-27\"}}`" }, { "id": 39980, "title": "Will the interest in \"meta smart glasses leak\" be greater on 2025-09-24 than on 2025-09-16 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"meta smart glasses leak\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"meta smart glasses leak\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-meta-smart-glasses-leak-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:31.103093Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T08:25:38Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:04.575401Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:31.527083Z", "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T09:55:38Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T09:55:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T17:12:26Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T08:25:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39521, "title": "Will the interest in \"meta smart glasses leak\" be greater on 2025-09-24 than on 2025-09-16 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:31.103613Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T08:25:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-16T09:55:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-16T09:55:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T17:12:26Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:04.041680Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T09:55:38Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T09:55:38Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “meta smart glasses leak” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 100; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=meta%20smart%20glasses%20leak&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"meta smart glasses leak\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-16\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-24\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=meta%20smart%20glasses%20leak&date=2025-08-25%202025-09-24\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves \"Yes\" if the value on the timeline found at [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=meta%20smart%20glasses%20leak&date=2025-08-25%202025-09-24](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=meta%20smart%20glasses%20leak&date=2025-08-25%202025-09-24) representing 2025-09-24 is greater than the value at 2025-09-16. If it stays the same or decreases, it resolves to \"No\".", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"meta smart glasses leak\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-25 2025-09-24\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39980, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758016244.566843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758016244.566843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2691237541528239 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 15.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 57.553057203877174, "peer_score": 8.516482818543677, "coverage": 0.9592317577644631, "relative_legacy_score": -0.007908592887891823, "weighted_coverage": 0.9592317577644631, "spot_peer_score": 8.95103993760117, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 57.553057203877174, "peer_archived_score": 8.516482818543677, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.007908592887891823, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.95103993760117, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “meta smart glasses leak” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 100; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=meta%20smart%20glasses%20leak&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"meta smart glasses leak\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-16\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-24\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=meta%20smart%20glasses%20leak&date=2025-08-25%202025-09-24\"}}`" } ] }
