Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1600
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If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Zillow Home Value Index, Raw (ZHVI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under HOME VALUES, make sure Data Type is set to \"ZHVI All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op) Time Series, Raw, Mid-Tier ($)\" and Geography is set to \"Metro & U.S.\" The RegionName \"Dallas, TX\" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)", "fine_print": "Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, \"We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs.\" In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. In the event the chart and CSV report different figures, the CSV will take precedence.", "post_id": 30460, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732632040.795648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5569999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.7386 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.825 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732632040.795648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5569999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.7386 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.825 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26139999999999997, 0.7386 ], "means": [ 0.6575650227766469 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4927265728301974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.048090145577278885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.7821211939703921, 0.0, 0.0, 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}, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month." }, { "id": 30459, "title": "Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Hartford, CT in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 7.0%, according to Zillow?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-year-over-year-increase-in-prices-of-homes-in-hartford-ct-in-november-2024-be-greater-than-or-equal-to-70-according-to-zillow", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-25T14:01:21.443586Z", "published_at": "2024-11-25T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.155971Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T14:16:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-25T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30252, "title": "Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Hartford, CT in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 7.0%, according to Zillow?", "created_at": "2024-11-25T14:01:21.443586Z", "open_time": "2024-11-25T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T14:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-12T14:18:26.539433Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Zillow Home Value Index, Raw for Hartford, CT, has risen by ≥7.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Zillow Home Value Index, Raw (ZHVI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under HOME VALUES, make sure Data Type is set to \"ZHVI All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op) Time Series, Raw, Mid-Tier ($)\" and Geography is set to \"Metro & U.S.\" The RegionName \"Hartford, CT\" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)", "fine_print": "Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, \"We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs.\" In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. In the event the chart and CSV report different figures, the CSV will take precedence.", "post_id": 30459, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732632041.484713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5257999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732632041.484713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5257999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.3967943630672755 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6207801241624853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8332942893929475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0315454926338852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.589443283416015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month." }, { "id": 30458, "title": "Will Florida Governor Ron Desantis refrain from naming the replacement for Marco Rubio's Senate seat before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-florida-governor-ron-desantis-refrain-from-naming-the-replacement-for-marco-rubios-senate-seat-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-25T14:01:21.410378Z", "published_at": "2024-11-25T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.478596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-25T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30251, "title": "Will Florida Governor Ron Desantis refrain from naming the replacement for Marco Rubio's Senate seat before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-25T14:01:21.410378Z", "open_time": "2024-11-25T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:51:14.128746Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[DeSantis aims to appoint Marco Rubio’s Senate replacement by early January](https://apnews.com/article/us-senate-florida-rubio-desantis-trump-appointment-49e3d490a298b64470c69d1892efc1b8)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Ron DeSantis has not named the successor to Marco Rubio's US Senate seat. If he has named Rubio's successor before then, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30458, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732633438.739063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3928376906208522 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732633438.739063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3928376906208522 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6071623093791478, 0.3928376906208522 ], "means": [ 0.4829229890207771 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7357583998909965, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9668621065348213, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"2024-11-25T14:01:21.374931Z", "published_at": "2024-11-25T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.838497Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T02:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-25T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30250, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Y2K, scheduled to open December 6, 2024, exceed $5,000,000?", "created_at": "2024-11-25T14:01:21.374931Z", "open_time": "2024-11-25T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T02:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-11T02:18:41.966597Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, is withholding forecasts on Y2K until more information is available. IMDB [describes](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27218960/) the movie as follows: \"Two high school nobodies make the decision to crash the last major celebration before the new millennium on New Year's Eve 1999. The night becomes even crazier than they could have ever dreamed when the clock strikes midnight.\" Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Y2K, according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt27218960/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) exceeds USD $5,000,000.00. If the number is less than or equal to that, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. 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IMDB [describes](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27218960/) the movie as follows: \"Two high school nobodies make the decision to crash the last major celebration before the new millennium on New Year's Eve 1999. The night becomes even crazier than they could have ever dreamed when the clock strikes midnight.\" Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday." }, { "id": 30456, "title": "Will SpaceX fail to make any new posts on its Updates page before January 1, 2025? 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", "created_at": "2024-11-25T14:01:21.222619Z", "open_time": "2024-11-25T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-26T22:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-26T22:57:49.204538Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of November 22, 2024, SpaceX's most recent post was timestamped September 10, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if no new posts appear at SpaceX's Updates page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.spacex.com/updates/), timestamped after the close of this question and before January 1, 2025. If there is no such post, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.", "post_id": 30456, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732633833.498672, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.2625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732633833.498672, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.2625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7375, 0.2625 ], "means": [ 0.3346818213131897 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 1.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0403456415180714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 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Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-25T13:38:14.858465Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-01T19:11:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-01T19:11:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-13T16:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-14T00:24:01.298005Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-26T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-13T16:21:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Department of [Health and Human Services](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Health_and_Human_Services) (HHS) oversees the following agencies, among others:\n\n- [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centers_for_Disease_Control_and_Prevention) (CDC) \n\n- [Food and Drug Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_and_Drug_Administration) (FDA) \n\n- [National Institutes of Health](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institutes_of_Health) (NIH) \n\nOn November 14, 2024, Donald Trump's transition team announced Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Trump's pick for Secretary of Health and Human Services. Kennedy is [described as](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/trump-picks-rfk-jr-anti-vaccine-activist-health-human-services-secreta-rcna180182) an anti-vaccine activist by NBC News, which said:\n\n>In a [post on X](https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1857198805919138235), Kennedy said, \"We have a generational opportunity to bring together the greatest minds in science, medicine, industry, and government to put an end to the chronic disease epidemic.\"\n\n>During his presidential campaign, Kennedy developed a national profile for his criticism of the Covid vaccines and childhood immunizations. He has claimed that [vaccines are tied to autism](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-anti-vaccine-push-white-house-rcna89470), despite evidence conveyed through studies over decades that have disproven such a claim.\n\nKennedy potentially faces an uphill battle for his Senate confirmation. A few Republican senators have [expressed concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/11/20/rfk-senators-vaccines-abortion-agriculture/) about Kennedy's vaccine skepticism. Additionally, some Republicans have criticized Kennedy's pro-choice sentiments, with former Vice President Mike Pence [saying](https://x.com/McCormackJohn/status/1857441573572632706), \"If confirmed, RFK, Jr. would be the most pro-abortion Republican appointed secretary of HHS in modern history.\" \n\nHistorically, although no nominees for HHS Secretary have been voted down by the US Senate, in 2009 Tom Daschle, Barack Obama's nominee for HHS Secretary, withdrew his nomination when information surfaced about unpaid taxes by Daschle. For additional historical background please see [Unsuccessful nominations to the Cabinet of the United States\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsuccessful_nominations_to_the_Cabinet_of_the_United_States)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, the United States Senate confirms Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**. \n\nAdditionally, if Donald Trump's transition team or his Administration publicly announces or acknowledges that Donald Trump is no longer seeking Kennedy's confirmation as HHS Secretary, or Kennedy withdraws himself from the nomination, this question immediately resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "For this question to resolve as **Yes**, Senate confirmation is required. 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Kennedy Jr. as Trump's pick for Secretary of Health and Human Services. Kennedy is [described as](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/trump-picks-rfk-jr-anti-vaccine-activist-health-human-services-secreta-rcna180182) an anti-vaccine activist by NBC News, which said:\n\n>In a [post on X](https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1857198805919138235), Kennedy said, \"We have a generational opportunity to bring together the greatest minds in science, medicine, industry, and government to put an end to the chronic disease epidemic.\"\n\n>During his presidential campaign, Kennedy developed a national profile for his criticism of the Covid vaccines and childhood immunizations. He has claimed that [vaccines are tied to autism](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-anti-vaccine-push-white-house-rcna89470), despite evidence conveyed through studies over decades that have disproven such a claim.\n\nKennedy potentially faces an uphill battle for his Senate confirmation. A few Republican senators have [expressed concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/11/20/rfk-senators-vaccines-abortion-agriculture/) about Kennedy's vaccine skepticism. Additionally, some Republicans have criticized Kennedy's pro-choice sentiments, with former Vice President Mike Pence [saying](https://x.com/McCormackJohn/status/1857441573572632706), \"If confirmed, RFK, Jr. would be the most pro-abortion Republican appointed secretary of HHS in modern history.\" \n\nHistorically, although no nominees for HHS Secretary have been voted down by the US Senate, in 2009 Tom Daschle, Barack Obama's nominee for HHS Secretary, withdrew his nomination when information surfaced about unpaid taxes by Daschle. For additional historical background please see [Unsuccessful nominations to the Cabinet of the United States\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsuccessful_nominations_to_the_Cabinet_of_the_United_States)" }, { "id": 30428, "title": "Will Indian authorities report that two hundred million or more pilgrims have attended Kumbh Mela?", "short_title": "Kumbh Mela attendance >200M?", "url_title": "Kumbh Mela attendance >200M?", "slug": "kumbh-mela-attendance-200m", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-23T13:37:04.274323Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T08:27:49.438346Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.036771Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-29T08:27:49.438344Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-10T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-26T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-10T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-01T08:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30233, "title": "Will Indian authorities report that two hundred million or more pilgrims have attended Kumbh Mela?", "created_at": "2024-11-23T13:37:04.274916Z", "open_time": "2024-12-01T08:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T08:27:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T08:27:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-10T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-01T13:57:45.184727Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-26T18:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-10T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Kumbh Mela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumbh_Mela), the largest human gathering, is a Hindu mass pilgrimage where millions gather to bathe in sacred rivers at certain astrological conjunctions, believed to transform the waters into immortality-granting nectar. The festival rotates among four cities in India; Prayagraj (formerly named Allahabad), the site of the largest gatherings, is set to host it between January 13 and February 26, 2025.\n\nGiven the sheer scale of the event, crowd sizes are hard to estimate. The 2019 event in Prayagraj was [officially reported](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/a-record-over-24-crore-people-visited-kumbh-2019-more-than-total-tourists-in-up-in-2014-17/story-9uncpmhBPnBj11ClnTiYQP.html) to have drawn more than 240,000,000 faithful. Factors like the variable duration of the event cause attendance to fluctuate significantly, though, with \"only\" 79M visitors reported in 2013.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the total number of pilgrims in Prayagraj throughout Kumbh Mela is reported to be greater than or equal to 200,000,000.", "fine_print": "- In case only a range of the number of pilgrims is reported, the midpoint of the range shall be used.\n\n- The claimed numbers must have come from the federal government of India, the state of Uttar Pradesh or the local government of Prayagraj. This includes any of their agencies and departments. Should different levels of government report different numbers, this question will resolve based on the one published first, ignoring potential revisions, except for clerical errors.\n\n- If none of the aforementioned sources release estimates before May 1, 2025, Metaculus may resolve this using estimates from other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\n- If only estimates for individual days are released, these will only affect resolution in the following ways:\n - This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one day reaches or surpasses 200m.\n - This question will resolve as **No** if the sum of the numbers for all the days of the festival is below 200m.\n - If none of the above are satisfied, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\n- Numbers are likely to be reported in the Indian unit *crore*, which corresponds to 10 million; so the number relevant to the question is 20 crore.", "post_id": 30428, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739062795.023884, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.993 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739062795.023884, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.993 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9561564837916775 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 5.337149683499962 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 36.854824757725844, "peer_score": 3.3927920614688283, "coverage": 0.7989789181352354, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9857289055767475, "spot_peer_score": 0.22701485345392658, "spot_baseline_score": 33.34237337251918, "baseline_archived_score": 36.854824757725844, "peer_archived_score": 3.3927920614688283, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.22701485345392658, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 33.34237337251918 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Kumbh Mela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumbh_Mela), the largest human gathering, is a Hindu mass pilgrimage where millions gather to bathe in sacred rivers at certain astrological conjunctions, believed to transform the waters into immortality-granting nectar. The festival rotates among four cities in India; Prayagraj (formerly named Allahabad), the site of the largest gatherings, is set to host it between January 13 and February 26, 2025.\n\nGiven the sheer scale of the event, crowd sizes are hard to estimate. The 2019 event in Prayagraj was [officially reported](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/a-record-over-24-crore-people-visited-kumbh-2019-more-than-total-tourists-in-up-in-2014-17/story-9uncpmhBPnBj11ClnTiYQP.html) to have drawn more than 240,000,000 faithful. Factors like the variable duration of the event cause attendance to fluctuate significantly, though, with \"only\" 79M visitors reported in 2013." }, { "id": 30418, "title": "Will the Senate vote to reject at least one of Trump's cabinet-level nominees?", "short_title": "Senate rejects Trump nominees?", "url_title": "Senate rejects Trump nominees?", "slug": "senate-rejects-trump-nominees", "author_id": 211683, "author_username": "NonzeroNews", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-22T20:11:10.356062Z", "published_at": "2024-11-22T20:11:27.462250Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.701492Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-22T20:11:27.462248Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-27T20:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-27T20:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-28T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-22T20:11:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3649, "name": "Nonzero Newsletter Community", "type": "community", "slug": "nonzero", "description": "A Metaculus Community for Robert Wright's Nonzero Newsletter and Podcast", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-24_at_2.08.03PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/PCE1WV8g_400x400.jpg", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 211683, "username": "NonzeroNews", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3649, "name": "Nonzero Newsletter Community", "type": "community", "slug": "nonzero", "description": "A Metaculus Community for Robert Wright's Nonzero Newsletter and Podcast", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-24_at_2.08.03PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/PCE1WV8g_400x400.jpg", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 211683, "username": "NonzeroNews", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30228, "title": "Will the Senate vote to reject at least one of Trump's cabinet-level nominees?", "created_at": "2024-11-22T20:11:10.356421Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T20:11:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T20:11:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T20:11:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-28T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-27T20:06:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-27T20:06:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump has nominated several nominees for cabinet-level positions who Republican senators have said they may vote against during the confirmation process. If four Republican senators join Democrats in voting against any nominee, they will not be confirmed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve in the affirmative if any of Trump's nominees for cabinet-level positions are rejected in a vote by the Senate. This does not apply to nominees who withdraw under pressure without facing a formal vote, as Attorney General nominee Matt Gaetz did this week.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30418, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734908646.534624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734908646.534624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2939228420056316 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0059366215221415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5097444006431076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46890301972848125, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1734197341587005, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2360500546279936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump has nominated several nominees for cabinet-level positions who Republican senators have said they may vote against during the confirmation process. If four Republican senators join Democrats in voting against any nominee, they will not be confirmed." }, { "id": 30410, "title": "Will Virgin Galactic fail to make make any new posts on its News page before January 1, 2025? ", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-virgin-galactic-fail-to-make-make-any-new-posts-on-its-news-page-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:14.315308Z", "published_at": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.571876Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-29T02:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30200, "title": "Will Virgin Galactic fail to make make any new posts on its News page before January 1, 2025? ", "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:14.315308Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-29T02:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-29T02:18:08.083032Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of November 20, 2024, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped July 10, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if no new posts appear at Virgin Galactic's News page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.virgingalactic.com/news), timestamped after the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024. If there is a new post, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.", "post_id": 30410, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732367904.60056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.44480000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732367904.60056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.44480000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5551999999999999, 0.44480000000000003 ], "means": [ 0.5268983812453477 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"will-the-boeing-starliner-commercial-crew-program-make-it-to-2025-without-being-cancelled", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:14.279209Z", "published_at": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.598023Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": 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"default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30199, "title": "Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program make it to 2025 without being cancelled?", "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:14.279209Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:49:54.962980Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the [NASA Commercial Crew program](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/commercial-space/commercial-crew-program/) (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named *Starliner* to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS. \n\nUnfortunately, since inception, this Boeing program has been riddled with issues and delays. The [first orbital demo flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test), taking place in December 2019, was a failure as while the capsule was safely recovered, multiple serious issues during flight resulted in not completing mission objectives, such as reaching and docking with the ISS. \n\nDue to these issues, Boeing agreed to perform a [second orbital flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2) at \"no cost to the taxpayer\" with an estimated US$410 million out-of-pocket expenditure, and while this mission was nominally successful with the spacecraft docking to the ISS and returning safely, multiple serious issues were discovered both pre-launch--causing delays--and during operation including numerous failures of the maneuvering thruster system. \n\nThe latest flight of Starliner, the [crew flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test) launched in 2024 and gained massive media attention as failures in the thruster system resulted in the astronauts getting \"stranded\" aboard the ISS. After investigation, Boeing and NASA have decided to not risk returning the astronauts on the partially defective Starliner capsule, instead returning them on a different spacecraft. The defective Starliner will return to earth, unmanned. \n\nLooking towards the future, there is currently a planned [Starliner-1 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1) in the \"fully operational phase\" of the Starliner Commercial Crew program, scheduled for no earlier than August, 2025. This mission, if it takes place, will begin a series of regular operational missions where Starliner transports four astronauts up to the ISS on a schedule. \n\nGenerally though, there are serious doubts about the future of the Boeing Starliner program. [For example, NASA has already double-booked the Starliner-1 Flight with the SpaceX-11 Flight](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starliner-passes-in-orbit-tests-but-first-operational-launch-slips/) in anticipation that Boeing will not be ready in time.\n\nThe technical issues, and more critically, the apparent inability of Boeing to fix known technical issues throw serious doubt upon Boeing's engineering skill and commitment to the program, making it likely that, for example, NASA insists on a fourth demo flight or potentially, Boeing decides to cut their losses and cancels the program.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if either of these occur: 1) The Boeing Starliner Program is not canceled before January 1, 2025. 2) The Boeing Starliner Program completes its first operational flight before January 1, 2025. The question resolves as **No** if either of these events occur before January 1, 2025: 1) The Boeing Starliner Program ceases to be part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. 2) Boeing withdraws from the NASA Commercial Crew Program before completing its first [operational flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1).", "fine_print": "There is a decent chance that additional test or demonstration flights are performed, and these are not counted in this case. The deciding flight needs to be distinctly considered an \"operational\" flight, the \"Post Certification Mission-1\" or \"Boeing Starliner-1.\"", "post_id": 30409, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732367917.920202, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.307 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732367917.920202, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.307 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4991734354995734 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0642063674640425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 1.062990582755872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8026177043617206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9248564882719876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 15.36738543168344, "peer_score": 31.720042766806266, "coverage": 0.9964436891426642, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9964436891426642, "spot_peer_score": 7.164444641259257, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344504996, "baseline_archived_score": 15.36738543168344, "peer_archived_score": 31.720042766806266, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.164444641259257, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344504996 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the [NASA Commercial Crew program](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/commercial-space/commercial-crew-program/) (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named *Starliner* to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS. \n\nUnfortunately, since inception, this Boeing program has been riddled with issues and delays. The [first orbital demo flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test), taking place in December 2019, was a failure as while the capsule was safely recovered, multiple serious issues during flight resulted in not completing mission objectives, such as reaching and docking with the ISS. \n\nDue to these issues, Boeing agreed to perform a [second orbital flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2) at \"no cost to the taxpayer\" with an estimated US$410 million out-of-pocket expenditure, and while this mission was nominally successful with the spacecraft docking to the ISS and returning safely, multiple serious issues were discovered both pre-launch--causing delays--and during operation including numerous failures of the maneuvering thruster system. \n\nThe latest flight of Starliner, the [crew flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test) launched in 2024 and gained massive media attention as failures in the thruster system resulted in the astronauts getting \"stranded\" aboard the ISS. After investigation, Boeing and NASA have decided to not risk returning the astronauts on the partially defective Starliner capsule, instead returning them on a different spacecraft. The defective Starliner will return to earth, unmanned. \n\nLooking towards the future, there is currently a planned [Starliner-1 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1) in the \"fully operational phase\" of the Starliner Commercial Crew program, scheduled for no earlier than August, 2025. This mission, if it takes place, will begin a series of regular operational missions where Starliner transports four astronauts up to the ISS on a schedule. \n\nGenerally though, there are serious doubts about the future of the Boeing Starliner program. [For example, NASA has already double-booked the Starliner-1 Flight with the SpaceX-11 Flight](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starliner-passes-in-orbit-tests-but-first-operational-launch-slips/) in anticipation that Boeing will not be ready in time.\n\nThe technical issues, and more critically, the apparent inability of Boeing to fix known technical issues throw serious doubt upon Boeing's engineering skill and commitment to the program, making it likely that, for example, NASA insists on a fourth demo flight or potentially, Boeing decides to cut their losses and cancels the program." }, { "id": 30408, "title": "Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be below 7.00% on December 31, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-weekly-30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate-be-below-700-on-december-31-2024-according-to-freddie-mac", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:14.236150Z", "published_at": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.225869Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30198, "title": "Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be below 7.00% on December 31, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?", "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:14.236150Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:48:04.500320Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 30-year fixed rate mortgage according to the resolution sounce as of November 22, 2024 was 6.84%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage is less than 7.00% at the Freddie Mac tracker page at [this location](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms), when accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after December 31, 2024. If the 30-Yr FRM is greater than or equal to 7.00%, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The resolution amount of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will be the one displayed at the moment Metaculus Admins access the Freddie Mac tracker page. It will be the rate listed as the 30-Yr FRM under \"Primary Mortgage Market Survey®\". It will be immaterial what period that covers, and the question will resolve based on whatever figure is shown. The time of day that the page will be accessed is also not going to be listed; Metaculus Admins will merely access the webpage at their convenience at some point on or after that date and record the rate listed.", "post_id": 30408, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732367929.59342, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.765 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732367929.59342, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.765 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.235, 0.765 ], "means": [ 0.7029949747357044 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.067010629629054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30197, "title": "Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:14.047876Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:42:17.144071Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bluesky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluesky) is a decentralised social media platform developed by Twitter co-founder [Jack Dorsey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey). It aims to provide users with greater control over their data and the algorithms that curate their feeds. Since its public launch in February 2024, Bluesky has seen significant growth, going from 3 million users before launch to 20 million as of November 19, 2024, 10 million of which joined the platform over the past [two months](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2024/11/18/post-election-x-rival-bluesky-is-adding-millions-of-users/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before 1 January 2025, Bluesky reports at least 30 million users according to [this counter](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats).", "fine_print": "If the counter stops reporting this number or there is reason to believe that the number reported is inaccurate, admins may resolve the question based on credible sources.", "post_id": 30407, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732367946.248559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5625981545087337 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732367946.248559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5625981545087337 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.6549130356582821 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.9538619638029449, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.4013068821831965, 0.02591031830222411, 0.44816710576384877, 0.9105903213533636, 0.5671578212634865, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.12594586343757333, 0.0, 1.6735694468110145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -85.35078869520996, "peer_score": -4.979591151797073, "coverage": 0.9907845020846084, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9907845020846084, "spot_peer_score": -6.72113289537687, "spot_baseline_score": -88.8968687611256, "baseline_archived_score": -85.35078869520996, "peer_archived_score": -4.979591151797073, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.72113289537687, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -88.8968687611256 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bluesky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluesky) is a decentralised social media platform developed by Twitter co-founder [Jack Dorsey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey). It aims to provide users with greater control over their data and the algorithms that curate their feeds. Since its public launch in February 2024, Bluesky has seen significant growth, going from 3 million users before launch to 20 million as of November 19, 2024, 10 million of which joined the platform over the past [two months](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2024/11/18/post-election-x-rival-bluesky-is-adding-millions-of-users/)." }, { "id": 30406, "title": "Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-at-least-one-of-andrea-bocellis-concerts-at-madison-square-garden-on-december-18-or-19-2024-sell-out", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:14.004568Z", "published_at": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.289774Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T00:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30196, "title": "Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?", "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:14.004568Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T00:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-04T00:31:54.528510Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Andrea Bocelli, the renowned Italian tenor, [is scheduled](https://www.andreabocelli.com/?post_type=tour) to perform at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 18 and 19, 2024. These performances are part of his annual Christmas tour, which typically features holiday classics alongside selections from his albums \"A Family Christmas\" and \"Believe\". Historically, Bocelli's concerts have attracted large audiences, [occasionally](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/music/1949661/andrea-bocelli-tickets-uk-tour-2025) leading to sold-out shows.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024, is officially declared sold out by the venue or the primary ticketing platform, Ticketmaster, before the respective performance date.", "fine_print": "- A concert is considered \"sold out\" when no tickets are available for purchase through official channels. Secondary market availability (resale platforms) will not impact the resolution of this question.\n- Admins may resolve this question based on either reports from credible sources or by checking the availability of the tickets on Ticketmaster.", "post_id": 30406, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732367959.366323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8155 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732367959.366323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8155 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7642732055707594 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3065995578046318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30987075277537535, 1.5160330430397635, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.4742406844872418, 1.1130915654110918, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 1.210581973250906, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -118.12730290881277, "peer_score": 1.210200647542459, "coverage": 0.9893944425577367, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9893944425577367, "spot_peer_score": -5.739644803774723, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873626, "baseline_archived_score": -118.12730290881277, "peer_archived_score": 1.210200647542459, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.739644803774723, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873626 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Andrea Bocelli, the renowned Italian tenor, [is scheduled](https://www.andreabocelli.com/?post_type=tour) to perform at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 18 and 19, 2024. These performances are part of his annual Christmas tour, which typically features holiday classics alongside selections from his albums \"A Family Christmas\" and \"Believe\". Historically, Bocelli's concerts have attracted large audiences, [occasionally](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/music/1949661/andrea-bocelli-tickets-uk-tour-2025) leading to sold-out shows." }, { "id": 30405, "title": "Will Ukraine use ATACMS to strike deep within Russia before 1 January 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukraine-use-atacms-to-strike-deep-within-russia-before-1-january-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:13.962681Z", "published_at": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.741522Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T22:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30195, "title": "Will Ukraine use ATACMS to strike deep within Russia before 1 January 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:13.962681Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T22:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-20T22:03:03.706287Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 17, 2024, Joe Biden [authorised](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c) Ukraine to utilise the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes deep within Russian territory. This marks a significant shift in US policy, as previous restrictions limited Ukraine's use of US missiles to occupied territories and attacks just across the border.\n\nThe authorization came as a response to [the deployment](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2796pdm1lo) of North Korean troops supporting Russian forces in their fight against Ukraine. On [November 19](https://www.ft.com/content/3f4654ec-4dbd-45d1-9d51-869993c717d0), Ukraine hit a weapons arsenal in Bryansk, 190km from the current frontlines.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Ukraine uses ATACMS to strike any location within the pre-2014 borders of Russia, excluding those Russian oblasts that are immediately adjacent to Ukrainian-held territory: Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod.\n\nIf no such reports are available before 7 January 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "- Credible sources must confirm that the missile(s) landed in the specified area.\n- Intercepted missiles will not resolve this question positively. \n- Missiles that strike in the specified area, but do not detonate (e.g., due to malfunction) will nonetheless result in a **Yes** resolution.\n- In the event of ambiguity regarding whether a missile strike was intercepted or successful, Metaculus admins may use their discretion based on information available from credible sources.", "post_id": 30405, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732367971.533769, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.532 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732367971.533769, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.532 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.40328352351419705 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.9195088276262012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3301658287663055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5820342943723684, 0.3569457294166105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2573354560161176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1539874753502386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6154788290191908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 17, 2024, Joe Biden [authorised](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c) Ukraine to utilise the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes deep within Russian territory. This marks a significant shift in US policy, as previous restrictions limited Ukraine's use of US missiles to occupied territories and attacks just across the border.\n\nThe authorization came as a response to [the deployment](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2796pdm1lo) of North Korean troops supporting Russian forces in their fight against Ukraine. On [November 19](https://www.ft.com/content/3f4654ec-4dbd-45d1-9d51-869993c717d0), Ukraine hit a weapons arsenal in Bryansk, 190km from the current frontlines." }, { "id": 30404, "title": "Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nvidia-have-the-largest-market-cap-in-the-world-at-the-end-of-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:13.919080Z", "published_at": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.713735Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30194, "title": "Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:13.919080Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:47:00.703929Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nvidia has seen a meteoric rise in the past two years, with its stock growing more than threefold in 2023, a feat which is looking to repeat in 2024. Nvidia's rise can be [largely attributed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-06/nvidia-s-rise-to-3-trillion-fuels-jensanity-across-tech-world) to the rise of generative AI, as Nvidia [provides](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/02/nvidia-dominates-the-ai-chip-market-but-theres-rising-competition-.html) the vast majority of chips that are used to train these systems. However, in recent weeks, there have been [reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai) that the new LLMs from the leading companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) are not showing the expected improvements.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Nvidia has the largest market cup of any company according to [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) after the close of trading on December 31, 2024.", "fine_print": "- If there are ambiguities regarding Nvidia's ranking, the \"End of year Market Cap\" values will be used from each of the top companies' [individual page](https://companiesmarketcap.com/nvidia/marketcap/).\n- If CompaniesMarketCap is unavailable, admins may wait until 7 January 2025 and then use alternative, credible sources.", "post_id": 30404, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732367985.386821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39166666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732367985.386821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39166666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5584426873384936 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4137361850288244, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 1.415884125078357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5760296316230065, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5280392838920643, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.03860001262990482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -48.620174617865324, "peer_score": 10.088122817431696, "coverage": 0.9874364181469987, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9874364181469987, "spot_peer_score": 3.079663939920934, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -48.620174617865324, "peer_archived_score": 10.088122817431696, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.079663939920934, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nvidia has seen a meteoric rise in the past two years, with its stock growing more than threefold in 2023, a feat which is looking to repeat in 2024. Nvidia's rise can be [largely attributed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-06/nvidia-s-rise-to-3-trillion-fuels-jensanity-across-tech-world) to the rise of generative AI, as Nvidia [provides](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/02/nvidia-dominates-the-ai-chip-market-but-theres-rising-competition-.html) the vast majority of chips that are used to train these systems. However, in recent weeks, there have been [reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai) that the new LLMs from the leading companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) are not showing the expected improvements." }, { "id": 30403, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-domestic-opening-weekend-box-office-revenue-of-mufasa-the-lion-king-exceed-that-of-sonic-the-hedgehog-3", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:13.876244Z", "published_at": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.627392Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-24T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-24T16:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30193, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?", "created_at": "2024-11-22T13:53:13.876244Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-24T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-24T16:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-24T16:27:30.917267Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-23T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedgehog 3*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18259086/) is an upcoming action-adventure comedy film based on the Sega video game series. The original *Sonic the Hedgehog* earned $58 million in its domestic opening weekend, while its sequel, *Sonic the Hedgehog 2*, made $72 million.\n\nBoth films are based in intellectual properties from the early 90s and are set for release on December 20, 2024. Despite the differences in the box office performances of the previous installments in their respective franchises, projections for both films [appear to be similarly strong](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-mufasa-the-lion-king-and-sonic-the-hedgehog-3s-early-box-office-ranges-plus-wicked-gladiator-ii-and-moana-2-updates/).\n\nBox Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of [Mufasa: The Lion King](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13186482/) surpasses the domestic box office for the opening weekend of [Sonic the Hedgehog 3](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt18259086/), according to the numbers provided by Box Office Mojo. If the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Sonic the Hedgehog 3 exceeds that of Mufasa: The Lion King, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Other credible sources might be considered if Box Office Mojo does not report the relevant numbers.\n\nThe weekend box office figures are [generally expected](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#weekend) to be posted after 1 PM Pacific Time on the Monday the day after the weekend. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.", "post_id": 30403, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732368116.354685, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5631814894886591 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732368116.354685, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5631814894886591 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6018420676516685 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.3278398929163613, 1.3842393514523779, 0.9007670990476838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2700637711678114, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.6843774145207964, 0.14645117361277293, 1.9133012631651165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -37.0699026466649, "peer_score": -10.27150729353251, "coverage": 0.987433105232539, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.987433105232539, "spot_peer_score": -2.4660399709338816, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -37.0699026466649, "peer_archived_score": -10.27150729353251, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.4660399709338816, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedgehog 3*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18259086/) is an upcoming action-adventure comedy film based on the Sega video game series. The original *Sonic the Hedgehog* earned $58 million in its domestic opening weekend, while its sequel, *Sonic the Hedgehog 2*, made $72 million.\n\nBoth films are based in intellectual properties from the early 90s and are set for release on December 20, 2024. Despite the differences in the box office performances of the previous installments in their respective franchises, projections for both films [appear to be similarly strong](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-mufasa-the-lion-king-and-sonic-the-hedgehog-3s-early-box-office-ranges-plus-wicked-gladiator-ii-and-moana-2-updates/).\n\nBox Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday." }, { "id": 30379, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? 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(v2 working)", "created_at": "2024-11-21T23:35:26.770144Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-26T23:35:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-26T23:35:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T01:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T01:58:54.448910Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, 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"edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.518092Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T13:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30162, "title": "Will the Mt Seymour ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 13, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.381458Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T13:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T13:37:37.973729Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Vancouver Sun: [PSA: Metro Vancouver ski hills just received the first snow of the season](https://vancouversun.com/news/psa-metro-vancouver-ski-hills-just-received-the-first-snow-of-the-season) \"Weather experts are also betting on a snowier winter this year compared to last year\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Mt Seymour Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/british-columbia/mount-seymour/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after December 13, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 30364, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732289361.997988, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7440000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.8155 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732289361.997988, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7440000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.8155 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.1845, 0.8155 ], "means": [ 0.7697965327398102 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 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30161, "title": "Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 1, 2025?\n\n", "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.351657Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:45:15.803599Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)\n* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)\n\n----\n\nRepublican Congresspeople [Ted Cruz](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/) and [Jim Jordan](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/25/jim-jordan-prods-gop-colleagues-consider-impeachin/) have both publicly discussed the possibility of impeaching President Joe Biden if Republicans win control of the House of Representatives following the [2022 midterm elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections). Ted Cruz stated on his podcast in [January 2022](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/):\n\n>Democrats weaponized impeachment [...] they used it for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him. And one of the real disadvantages of doing that … is the more you weaponize it and turn it into a partisan cudgel, you know, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.\n\nThroughout his term, Biden has maintained that his plan is to run for re-election, as confirmed by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in [June 2022](https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1536477522988343296).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Joe Biden does not complete his term as the 46th President of the United States from January 20, 2021 through January 1, 2025, as specified by the [20th Amendment]((https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-20/section-1)) of the US Constitution. This may be for any reason, for example, due to his resignation, death, impeachment and removal, or another cause.\n\nThis question will not resolve if the Vice President or another person takes the duties of the Acting President as specified in [Sections 3 and 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_3:_President's_declaration_of_inability) of the 25th Amendment (for example, in the case of an [expected medical procedure](https://www.dw.com/en/us-kamala-harris-serves-as-acting-president-during-biden-colonoscopy/a-59883548)) it will only resolve as **Yes** if Biden is fully removed from the office.\n\nThis question will also resolve as **Yes** if the President's term is legally determined to end prior to midnight on January 1, 2025", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30363, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732289394.656922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02545 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732289394.656922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02545 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97455, 0.02545 ], "means": [ 0.03753132718672706 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.33432944568041745, 2.624548330432119, 2.6219697209952137, 0.31787063721898845, 0.1836394386094319, 1.3575604707899767, 0.6733700232408553, 0.0646131558445074, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 94.27379470299394, "peer_score": 1.7872259590145485, "coverage": 0.9948712967832885, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9948712967832885, "spot_peer_score": 1.8459036343387976, "spot_baseline_score": 96.28081110181218, "baseline_archived_score": 94.27379470299394, "peer_archived_score": 1.7872259590145485, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.8459036343387976, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 96.28081110181218 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)\n* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)\n\n----\n\nRepublican Congresspeople [Ted Cruz](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/) and [Jim Jordan](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/25/jim-jordan-prods-gop-colleagues-consider-impeachin/) have both publicly discussed the possibility of impeaching President Joe Biden if Republicans win control of the House of Representatives following the [2022 midterm elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections). Ted Cruz stated on his podcast in [January 2022](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/):\n\n>Democrats weaponized impeachment [...] they used it for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him. And one of the real disadvantages of doing that … is the more you weaponize it and turn it into a partisan cudgel, you know, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.\n\nThroughout his term, Biden has maintained that his plan is to run for re-election, as confirmed by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in [June 2022](https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1536477522988343296)." } ] }
