Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1620
{ "count": 5946, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1640", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1600", "results": [ { "id": 30362, "title": "Will Alphabet/Google continuously operate through January 1, 2025, without announcing Eric Schmidt's return as CEO or as a member of its Board of Directors?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-alphabetgoogle-continuously-operate-through-january-1-2025-without-announcing-eric-schmidts-return-as-ceo-or-as-a-member-of-its-board-of-directors", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.315004Z", "published_at": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.279209Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30160, "title": "Will Alphabet/Google continuously operate through January 1, 2025, without announcing Eric Schmidt's return as CEO or as a member of its Board of Directors?", "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.315004Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:44:27.344333Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Eric Schmidt served as CEO of Google from 2001 to 2011 and was its board chairman from 2011 to 2015 and then chairman of Alphabet from 2015 to 2017.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **No** if before January 1, 2025, Eric Schmidt has been announced as the next CEO of Google or Alphabet, or is listed as being on its board of directors [here](https://abc.xyz/investor/board-and-governance/) or is announced as having been elected or appointed to the board. It also resolves as **No** if the company ceases operations. Otherwise this resolves as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "Interim, acting, or temporary CEO does not count.\n\nIf the company has multiple CEOs and this individual is going to be one of them, it will count.\n\nThis question resolves based on announcement; the date of beginning work is irrelevant for purposes of this question. ", "post_id": 30362, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732289381.532439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8702500000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.955 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732289381.532439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8702500000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.955 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8249101788476118 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Eric Schmidt served as CEO of Google from 2001 to 2011 and was its board chairman from 2011 to 2015 and then chairman of Alphabet from 2015 to 2017." }, { "id": 30361, "title": "Will the yield curve be non-inverted on Friday December 27, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-yield-curve-be-non-inverted-on-friday-december-27-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.284909Z", "published_at": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.816453Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T00:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30159, "title": "Will the yield curve be non-inverted on Friday December 27, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.284909Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T00:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-28T00:48:10.120565Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of Wednesdays November 20, 2024, the value shown was 0.10.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **No** if according to [FRED's 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y), there is a negative value for December 27, 2024. If it is greater than or equal to 0.00, this question resolves as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve according to the first value shown for the date in question when accessed by Metaculus; later updates or revisions will be immaterial.", "post_id": 30361, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732289390.388302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.531 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7642 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732289390.388302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.531 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7642 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6295032277949678 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.29095551644889905, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3419026565041943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0377991022155293, 0.8885438579531144, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.45529495594735647, 0.22460198356168767, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.14672597145821564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.58160095665752, "peer_score": -0.17163541255075393, "coverage": 0.9933030399183431, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9933030399183431, "spot_peer_score": 1.30772498851966, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 55.58160095665752, "peer_archived_score": -0.17163541255075393, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.30772498851966, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of Wednesdays November 20, 2024, the value shown was 0.10." }, { "id": 30360, "title": "Will Comex Gold Spot prices remain below $2,800 per ounce through December 27, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-comex-gold-spot-prices-remain-below-2800-per-ounce-through-december-27-2024-according-to-yahoo-finance", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.110080Z", "published_at": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.992922Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T15:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30158, "title": "Will Comex Gold Spot prices remain below $2,800 per ounce through December 27, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance?", "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.110080Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T15:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-28T16:00:24.654205Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-best-gold-investments-to-make-before-2025-experts-say/): \"Gold shattered historic records in 2024, hitting $2,790 per ounce in October, its upward price trajectory stemming from heavy central bank buying, ongoing inflation concerns and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. As a result, the investors who bought in early this year have already seen impressive returns, defying gold's reputation as only a long-term investment.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price for gold spot prices remains below $2,800 on every trading day after the launch of this question and through the last trading day before December 28, 2024, according to [this](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC%3DF/history/) Yahoo Finance link. If the price closes at greater than or equal to $2,800, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered.", "post_id": 30360, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732289296.273549, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7419499999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732289296.273549, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7419499999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6448118649560962 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2857986076691232, 1.4736877119846394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.7556488898884732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6944519924277246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21240674143045796, 0.0, 0.6689277003844071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.88821328474476, "peer_score": 13.45899187641161, "coverage": 0.9924869031127952, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9924869031127952, "spot_peer_score": 5.304598538273484, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 46.88821328474476, "peer_archived_score": 13.45899187641161, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.304598538273484, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-best-gold-investments-to-make-before-2025-experts-say/): \"Gold shattered historic records in 2024, hitting $2,790 per ounce in October, its upward price trajectory stemming from heavy central bank buying, ongoing inflation concerns and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. As a result, the investors who bought in early this year have already seen impressive returns, defying gold's reputation as only a long-term investment.\"" }, { "id": 30359, "title": "Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before Jan 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-rivian-make-any-posts-at-its-stories-site-before-jan-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.081252Z", "published_at": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.089639Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30157, "title": "Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before Jan 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.081252Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:42:53.194964Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of November 20, 2024, Rivian's most recent post was timestamped November 14, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a new post appears at Rivian's Stories page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://stories.rivian.com/), timestamped after the close of this question and before Januar 1, 2025. If there is no such post, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.", "post_id": 30359, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732289307.010817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8393 ], "centers": [ 0.872 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732289307.010817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8393 ], "centers": [ 0.872 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.128, 0.872 ], "means": [ 0.8638019918941279 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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80.24000401148393 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of November 20, 2024, Rivian's most recent post was timestamped November 14, 2024." }, { "id": 30358, "title": "Will lithium carbonate (CNY/T) prices continuously remain above 70,000 before December 21, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-lithium-carbonate-cnyt-prices-continuously-remain-above-70000-before-december-21-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.050671Z", "published_at": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.602765Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T21:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30156, "title": "Will lithium carbonate (CNY/T) prices continuously remain above 70,000 before December 21, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.050671Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T21:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-20T21:56:36.887020Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to TradingEconomics: \"Lithium carbonated rose to CNY 79,000 per tonne after having traded near the three-year low of CNY 71,000 through late October, benefiting from supply curbs and an uptick in demand. The Chinese government enacted subsidies allowing people to trade older cars for electric vehicles in their latest push to support the sector, raising expectations that battery manufacturers may soon begin restocking lithium inputs. Despite relatively high stocks from a historical standpoint, battery manufacturers also reportedly raised purchasing activity amid risks of a trade war after Trump assumes office next year in the US. In turn, the plunge in prices during the year drove multiple mines in Australia and China to close or cut costs, resulting in 190 tons of lithium mine curtailments since 2023.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price, as reported by Trading Economics, remains above 70,000, for every day's closing price, after the launch of this question, and through December 20, 2024.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as \"No\" if the lithium carbonate price closes at or below 70,000 CNY/T during the specified time period.\n\n", "post_id": 30358, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732289317.758438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.61225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.679 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732289317.758438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.61225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.679 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38775000000000004, 0.61225 ], "means": [ 0.5774966743616339 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0293229311472047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9146619194538816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.9292749801060917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 1.0, 0.35490766944912944, 0.7549731054070336, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.05219354220359547, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3905754452934087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 26.316268371894637, "peer_score": 5.784510135772906, "coverage": 0.9909479585427928, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9909479585427928, "spot_peer_score": 8.732526751970179, "spot_baseline_score": 29.2192773901891, "baseline_archived_score": 26.316268371894637, "peer_archived_score": 5.784510135772906, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.732526751970179, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 29.2192773901891 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to TradingEconomics: \"Lithium carbonated rose to CNY 79,000 per tonne after having traded near the three-year low of CNY 71,000 through late October, benefiting from supply curbs and an uptick in demand. The Chinese government enacted subsidies allowing people to trade older cars for electric vehicles in their latest push to support the sector, raising expectations that battery manufacturers may soon begin restocking lithium inputs. Despite relatively high stocks from a historical standpoint, battery manufacturers also reportedly raised purchasing activity amid risks of a trade war after Trump assumes office next year in the US. In turn, the plunge in prices during the year drove multiple mines in Australia and China to close or cut costs, resulting in 190 tons of lithium mine curtailments since 2023.\"" }, { "id": 30357, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-domestic-opening-weekend-box-office-revenue-of-the-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-scheduled-to-open-december-13-2024-exceed-20000000", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.016910Z", "published_at": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.815306Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-18T13:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30155, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000?", "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:25.016910Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-18T13:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-18T13:53:12.084020Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt14824600/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) exceeds USD $20,000,000.00. If the number is less than or equal to that, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.", "post_id": 30357, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732289328.525732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5610692628782863 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732289328.525732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5610692628782863 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47975, 0.52025 ], "means": [ 0.48628845607230325 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.5946182793766217, 0.3462682599191768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9604258758867774, 0.0, 0.8616483146245009, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0188650006410573, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.6629929775253901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.06460822876323534, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -9.76636608542828, "peer_score": 8.343405673156166, "coverage": 0.9900968922564277, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9900968922564277, "spot_peer_score": 4.867937769159192, "spot_baseline_score": -5.964528846670677, "baseline_archived_score": -9.76636608542828, "peer_archived_score": 8.343405673156166, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.867937769159192, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.964528846670677 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday." }, { "id": 30356, "title": "Will the Dairy Recall Tracker maintained by the Center for Dairy Research show more than 1 recall for December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-dairy-recall-tracker-maintained-by-the-center-for-dairy-research-show-more-than-1-recall-for-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:24.980341Z", "published_at": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.312642Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30154, "title": "Will the Dairy Recall Tracker maintained by the Center for Dairy Research show more than 1 recall for December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-21T14:47:24.980341Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T00:59:25.718306Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The question of dairy recalls has taken on particular importance in 2024, due to [HPAI bird flu](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Dairy Recall Tracker at [this link](https://www.cdr.wisc.edu/dairy-recall-tracker) lists more than one recall in December 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 1, 2024. If it does not show >1 recall for December 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. As long as the page can be accessed, if for any reason it does not show greater than 1 recall for December 2024, this question resolves as No. Please note that only recalls will be counted, which means that it must be listed as such either in the headline or the linked story. Other notices such as consumer alerts do not count.", "post_id": 30356, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732289339.189285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35700000000000004 ], "centers": [ 0.4315 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6896000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732289339.189285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35700000000000004 ], "centers": [ 0.4315 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6896000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5685, 0.4315 ], "means": [ 0.4889438232958677 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1653066620297875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.614967829950016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.41143743012643624, 0.0, 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1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T09:47:39.589805Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Elon Musk's Million-Dollar Giveaway to Registered Voters Be Ruled Illegal?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Elon-Musks-milliondollar-giveaway-to-register-voters-be-ruled-illegal)\n\nOn 19 October 2024, Elon Musk, the tech multi-billionaire and the world’s richest man, announced [he was planning to give away $1 million daily to a swing state voter in the run-up to the United States presidential election on 5 November.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/10/20/elon-musk-giving-1-million-daily-to-swing-state-voters-who-sign-his-petition-in-latest-controversial-giveaway/) To be eligible for the gift, [voters had to sign a petition created by Musk’s political action committee America PAC and be registered in a swing state.](https://www.vox.com/politics/378912/musk-trump-voting-contest-million-dollars-swing-state-lottery-pennsylvania) According to Musk, the winners were not chosen randomly by a lottery draw but rather [“selected to earn $1m as a spokesperson for America PAC.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crlnjzzk919o)\" [As GOP lawyer Chris Gober argued](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/musks-pac-claims-1-million-winners-not-chosen-by-chance), “[t]he $1 million recipients are not chosen by chance. We know exactly who will be announced as the $1 million recipient today and tomorrow.” This is a departure from what Musk originally claimed, stating the giveaway was [“going to be award[ed] … randomly to people who have signed the petition”](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crlnjzzk919o) at a campaign event. \nThe giveaway, however, has not been without controversy. After its announcement, Elon Musk and America PAC’s actions came under significant scrutiny. Notably, Josh Shapiro, the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, described the strategy as [“deeply concerning” and “something that law enforcement could take a look at.”](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/20/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/elon-musk-money-giveaway-josh-shapiro-00184523) Legal experts have also offered differing opinions on the giveaway’s legality. Richard Hasen, a legal scholar teaching at the University of California, Los Angeles, claimed that the giveaway was [“clearly illegal”](https://x.com/rickhasen/status/1847815868924715295). On the other hand, Bradley Smith, a Professor at Capital University Law School and former Professor at Capital University Law School, argued that whilst he could understand why it could be argued Musk’s tactic has broken the law, ultimately [“the better catch is that it does not.\"](https://youtu.be/I2eZhYqmP4U?si=XND0WFQdpabyFEjP&t=190) Others still, like Dave Aronberg and Kim Wyman, have stressed that any judgements would be premature, stating that Musk is operating in a [“gray zone”](https://www.newsweek.com/legal-analysts-react-dojs-election-warning-elon-musk-1974003) where [“the answer is not clear”](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/24/elon-musk-pay-1-million-daily-voters-trump/75822067007/). \nSo far, the giveaway has only resulted in [one lawsuit](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/10/28/philadelphia-da-sues-elon-musks-pro-trump-pac-over-1-million-giveaway/). At the end of October, Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner (a self-described \"progressive prosecutor\") took Musk and America PAC to court, accusing them of hatching an [“illegal lottery scheme to influence voters in that election.”](https://drive.google.com/file/d/13X8d5QADhuuPghc01ousqJeIzxtLO1kc/view?pli=1) However, after lawyers on behalf of Musk and America PAC revealed the giveaway was not a lottery, [Philadelphia Judge Angelo Foglietta refused to impose an injunction and ruled that the giveaway could continue.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/11/04/elon-musk-pacs-1-million-giveaways-upheld-in-court/)\nDespite this, the opposition to Musk’s actions, and the open debate amongst legal experts about the giveaway’s legality, means that the possibility Musk and America PAC may be brought into court in the future cannot be ruled out, leaving the possibility open as to whether it will be ruled illegal.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, Elon Musk’s initiative to offer a million-dollar giveaway to incentivize voter registration has been ruled illegal by any U.S. court or regulatory body and this ruling has not been overturned, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30344, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758076356.45234, "end_time": 1758275944.981, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758076356.45234, "end_time": 1758275944.981, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.05872317754148678 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7394682331392083, 1.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 1.39246060801706, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2532492350144984, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Elon Musk's Million-Dollar Giveaway to Registered Voters Be Ruled Illegal?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Elon-Musks-milliondollar-giveaway-to-register-voters-be-ruled-illegal)\n\nOn 19 October 2024, Elon Musk, the tech multi-billionaire and the world’s richest man, announced [he was planning to give away $1 million daily to a swing state voter in the run-up to the United States presidential election on 5 November.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/10/20/elon-musk-giving-1-million-daily-to-swing-state-voters-who-sign-his-petition-in-latest-controversial-giveaway/) To be eligible for the gift, [voters had to sign a petition created by Musk’s political action committee America PAC and be registered in a swing state.](https://www.vox.com/politics/378912/musk-trump-voting-contest-million-dollars-swing-state-lottery-pennsylvania) According to Musk, the winners were not chosen randomly by a lottery draw but rather [“selected to earn $1m as a spokesperson for America PAC.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crlnjzzk919o)\" [As GOP lawyer Chris Gober argued](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/musks-pac-claims-1-million-winners-not-chosen-by-chance), “[t]he $1 million recipients are not chosen by chance. We know exactly who will be announced as the $1 million recipient today and tomorrow.” This is a departure from what Musk originally claimed, stating the giveaway was [“going to be award[ed] … randomly to people who have signed the petition”](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crlnjzzk919o) at a campaign event. \nThe giveaway, however, has not been without controversy. After its announcement, Elon Musk and America PAC’s actions came under significant scrutiny. Notably, Josh Shapiro, the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, described the strategy as [“deeply concerning” and “something that law enforcement could take a look at.”](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/20/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/elon-musk-money-giveaway-josh-shapiro-00184523) Legal experts have also offered differing opinions on the giveaway’s legality. Richard Hasen, a legal scholar teaching at the University of California, Los Angeles, claimed that the giveaway was [“clearly illegal”](https://x.com/rickhasen/status/1847815868924715295). On the other hand, Bradley Smith, a Professor at Capital University Law School and former Professor at Capital University Law School, argued that whilst he could understand why it could be argued Musk’s tactic has broken the law, ultimately [“the better catch is that it does not.\"](https://youtu.be/I2eZhYqmP4U?si=XND0WFQdpabyFEjP&t=190) Others still, like Dave Aronberg and Kim Wyman, have stressed that any judgements would be premature, stating that Musk is operating in a [“gray zone”](https://www.newsweek.com/legal-analysts-react-dojs-election-warning-elon-musk-1974003) where [“the answer is not clear”](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/24/elon-musk-pay-1-million-daily-voters-trump/75822067007/). \nSo far, the giveaway has only resulted in [one lawsuit](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/10/28/philadelphia-da-sues-elon-musks-pro-trump-pac-over-1-million-giveaway/). At the end of October, Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner (a self-described \"progressive prosecutor\") took Musk and America PAC to court, accusing them of hatching an [“illegal lottery scheme to influence voters in that election.”](https://drive.google.com/file/d/13X8d5QADhuuPghc01ousqJeIzxtLO1kc/view?pli=1) However, after lawyers on behalf of Musk and America PAC revealed the giveaway was not a lottery, [Philadelphia Judge Angelo Foglietta refused to impose an injunction and ruled that the giveaway could continue.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/11/04/elon-musk-pacs-1-million-giveaways-upheld-in-court/)\nDespite this, the opposition to Musk’s actions, and the open debate amongst legal experts about the giveaway’s legality, means that the possibility Musk and America PAC may be brought into court in the future cannot be ruled out, leaving the possibility open as to whether it will be ruled illegal." }, { "id": 30342, "title": "Will the total length of operational high-speed railway lines in China reach 70,000 kilometers before January 1, 2036?", "short_title": "70km of operational high-speed rail in China before 2036?", "url_title": "70km of operational high-speed rail in China before 2036?", "slug": "70km-of-operational-high-speed-rail-in-china-before-2036", "author_id": 204147, "author_username": "christopherdwinnan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-21T07:58:44.538452Z", "published_at": "2024-11-30T23:36:15.857187Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.879573Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-30T23:36:15.857185Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-03T23:35:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30141, "title": "Will the total length of operational high-speed railway lines in China reach 70,000 kilometers before January 1, 2036?", "created_at": "2024-11-21T07:58:44.539035Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T23:35:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-06T23:35:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-06T23:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "High-speed rail (HSR) is a critical component of modern transportation infrastructure, offering efficient and environmentally friendly travel. Asia, particularly China has been at [the forefront of HSR development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_high-speed_railway_lines). At the beginning of 2024, China had [45,000 kilometers](http://en.people.cn/n3/2024/0109/c90000-20119756.html) of operational HSR lines, with plans to expand to [70,000 kilometers](https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/China-charges-full-speed-ahead-on-bullet-train-expansion) by 2035.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes**, if China's operational high-speed railway network has reached a total length of at least 70,000 kilometers before January 1, 2036, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the reports by credibe sources that have been published before February 1, 2036.", "post_id": 30342, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735206930.16848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735206930.16848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8986891154634943 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "High-speed rail (HSR) is a critical component of modern transportation infrastructure, offering efficient and environmentally friendly travel. Asia, particularly China has been at [the forefront of HSR development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_high-speed_railway_lines). At the beginning of 2024, China had [45,000 kilometers](http://en.people.cn/n3/2024/0109/c90000-20119756.html) of operational HSR lines, with plans to expand to [70,000 kilometers](https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/China-charges-full-speed-ahead-on-bullet-train-expansion) by 2035." }, { "id": 30337, "title": "Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?", "short_title": "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action revived by December 2028?", "url_title": "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action revived by December 2028?", "slug": "joint-comprehensive-plan-of-action-revived-by-december-2028", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-21T00:31:31.228436Z", "published_at": "2024-12-08T22:35:18.953905Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T07:31:21.653093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-08T22:35:18.953903Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-10T22:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T09:47:39.589805Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T09:47:39.589805Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30139, "title": "Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?", "created_at": "2024-11-21T00:31:31.228788Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T22:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-13T22:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-13T22:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action/JCPOA be revived?\n\nThe [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal) — also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal or simply the Iran Deal — is an agreement to restrict Iran’s nuclear program in return for lifting sanctions on the Iranian economy. The deal was finalized [under the Obama Administration](https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/issues/foreign-policy/iran-deal) and signatories included the US, China, UK, France, Germany, Russia, the EU, and Iran. The JCPOA was [officially adopted on 18 October 2015 and implemented on 16 January 2016.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#)\n\nThe agreement, however, was not without controversy. Opponents of the deal included both [Israel and Saudi Arabia](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/4/14/why-saudi-arabia-and-israel-oppose-iran-nuclear-deal) (both historic rivals of the Islamic Republic of Iran) as well as critics in the United States. [Donald Trump, for example, routinely criticized the Iran nuclear deal during the 2016 US presidential election](https://ballotpedia.org/Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign,_2016/Iran), calling it an agreement made at “the highest level of incompetence” and “a disastrous deal.” \n\nAfter becoming president, [Donald Trump formally withdrew the US unilaterally from the JCPOA in 2018.](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-ending-united-states-participation-unacceptable-iran-deal/) In his announcement, Trump labeled the agreement as “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.” [Following this, the Trump administration re-implemented US sanctions on Iran.](https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/iran-sanctions-under-trump-administration) Though Iran initially nevertheless continued to abide by its commitments under the agreement, it has since accused the other parties of breaching the deal and begun increasing its stock of low-enriched uranium.\n\nFollowing his inauguration, [Joe Biden expressed his intention to reinstate the deal in 2021. Reentry negotiations began in April 2021 in Vienna,](https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2021-01/p4-1-iran-nuclear-deal-alert) the same city where the signatories had met in 2015. However, despite nearly four years of negotiations, the JCPOA has not been reinstated by the US. The path to reimplementation has been further complicated by the international geopolitical climate, with the [US having sanctioned Russia](https://www.trade.gov/russia-sanctions-and-export-controls) (one of the eight original signatories) for its invasion of Ukraine [and Iran for its alleged involvement in supplying missile components to Russia to assist its war effort.](https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/us-uk-and-eu-announce-new-measures-against-iran-and-russia/)\n\nGiven that Donald Trump has been reelected in the 2024 US presidential election, the JCPOA’S reinstatement is now in question.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before January 1, 2029. This can come about through a revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or through a new agreement (either bilateral or multilateral, as long as the US and Iran are signers). If no such agreement is signed before January 1, 2029, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nIn order to count, any such agreement must contain these three provisions:\n\n1. Limits on Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities and/or stockpiles.\n2. Monitoring and verification measures by a third party such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).\n3. Sanctions relief for Iran in exchange for compliance with nuclear restrictions.", "fine_print": "Preliminary talks, negotiations, or frameworks that do not result in a signed agreement will not qualify.\n\nUnilateral actions by any single nation or informal agreements lacking enforcement mechanisms will not qualify.", "post_id": 30337, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758007870.889607, "end_time": 1758155563.941248, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758007870.889607, "end_time": 1758155563.941248, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.30193524808891486 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3235495858073233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5128863128011775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6646627317794116, 0.0, 0.8520233747574918, 0.05444907101536203, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.42855776383303873, 0.0, 0.5599024685085519, 0.0, 0.6104228132231739, 3.002502450842983, 0.0, 0.02075297689962095, 0.6859817862175803, 0.0, 0.03598851855808508, 0.0, 0.19512018820526095, 0.2659211825430975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4463743270768352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04232921962320499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16171277564020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04939379203556264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.404242989111688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15685721197324565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025253159325845955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05724278302464458, 0.0, 0.12469124550422711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0978269360296038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 157, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action/JCPOA be revived?\n\nThe [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal) — also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal or simply the Iran Deal — is an agreement to restrict Iran’s nuclear program in return for lifting sanctions on the Iranian economy. The deal was finalized [under the Obama Administration](https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/issues/foreign-policy/iran-deal) and signatories included the US, China, UK, France, Germany, Russia, the EU, and Iran. The JCPOA was [officially adopted on 18 October 2015 and implemented on 16 January 2016.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#)\n\nThe agreement, however, was not without controversy. Opponents of the deal included both [Israel and Saudi Arabia](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/4/14/why-saudi-arabia-and-israel-oppose-iran-nuclear-deal) (both historic rivals of the Islamic Republic of Iran) as well as critics in the United States. [Donald Trump, for example, routinely criticized the Iran nuclear deal during the 2016 US presidential election](https://ballotpedia.org/Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign,_2016/Iran), calling it an agreement made at “the highest level of incompetence” and “a disastrous deal.” \n\nAfter becoming president, [Donald Trump formally withdrew the US unilaterally from the JCPOA in 2018.](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-ending-united-states-participation-unacceptable-iran-deal/) In his announcement, Trump labeled the agreement as “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.” [Following this, the Trump administration re-implemented US sanctions on Iran.](https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/iran-sanctions-under-trump-administration) Though Iran initially nevertheless continued to abide by its commitments under the agreement, it has since accused the other parties of breaching the deal and begun increasing its stock of low-enriched uranium.\n\nFollowing his inauguration, [Joe Biden expressed his intention to reinstate the deal in 2021. Reentry negotiations began in April 2021 in Vienna,](https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2021-01/p4-1-iran-nuclear-deal-alert) the same city where the signatories had met in 2015. However, despite nearly four years of negotiations, the JCPOA has not been reinstated by the US. The path to reimplementation has been further complicated by the international geopolitical climate, with the [US having sanctioned Russia](https://www.trade.gov/russia-sanctions-and-export-controls) (one of the eight original signatories) for its invasion of Ukraine [and Iran for its alleged involvement in supplying missile components to Russia to assist its war effort.](https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/us-uk-and-eu-announce-new-measures-against-iran-and-russia/)\n\nGiven that Donald Trump has been reelected in the 2024 US presidential election, the JCPOA’S reinstatement is now in question." }, { "id": 30328, "title": "Will WeWork continuously operate through January 1, 2025, without announcing Adam Neumann's return as CEO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-wework-continuously-operate-through-january-1-2025-without-announcing-adam-neumanns-return-as-ceo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-20T13:59:15.895381Z", "published_at": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.950387Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30127, "title": "Will WeWork continuously operate through January 1, 2025, without announcing Adam Neumann's return as CEO?", "created_at": "2024-11-20T13:59:15.895381Z", "open_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:41:38.079175Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Adam Neumann co-founded WeWork in 2010 and served as its CEO until 2019. \n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **No** if before January 1, 2025, Adam Neumann has been announced as the next CEO of WeWork. It also resolves as **No** if the company ceases operations. Otherwise this resolves as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "Interim, acting, or temporary CEO does not count.\n\nIf the company has multiple CEOs and this individual is going to be one of them, it will count.\n\nThis question resolves based on announcement; the date of beginning work is irrelevant for purposes of this question. 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the resolution source: \"Forbes' Real-Time Billionaires rankings tracks the daily ups and downs of the world’s richest people. The wealth-tracking platform provides ongoing updates on the net worth and ranking of each individual confirmed by Forbes to be a billionaire. The value of individuals’ public holdings are updated every 5 minutes when respective stock markets are open (there will be a 15-minute delay for stock prices). Individuals whose fortunes are significantly tied to private companies will have their net worths updated once a day. In cases where an individual owns a stake in a private company that accounts for 20% or more of his or her net worth, the value of the company will be adjusted according to an industry- or region-specific market index provided by our partners at FactSet Research Systems when available. A rotating cast of the five biggest winners and losers throughout the day is featured at the top of the page, followed by the complete list of billionaires ranked in order of net worth.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) on December 31, 2024 Jim Walton & Family, Alice Walton, or Rob Walton & Family are worth greater than or equal to $100 billion. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable at the resolution time, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 6, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). 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", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **No** if iHeartMedia, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. 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" }, { "id": 30325, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Kraven the Hunter, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-domestic-opening-weekend-box-office-revenue-of-kraven-the-hunter-scheduled-to-open-december-13-2024-exceed-20000000", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-20T13:59:15.414496Z", "published_at": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.116655Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-18T13:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30124, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Kraven the Hunter, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000?", "created_at": "2024-11-20T13:59:15.414496Z", "open_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-18T13:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-18T13:52:35.431982Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, Kraven the Hunter is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Kraven the Hunter according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt8790086/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) exceeds USD $20,000,000.00. If the number is less than or equal to that, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.", "post_id": 30325, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732202013.868982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45399999999999996 ], "centers": [ 0.5455 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6240301285869195 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732202013.868982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45399999999999996 ], "centers": [ 0.5455 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6240301285869195 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4545, 0.5455 ], "means": [ 0.5322760321478555 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1379993299958462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8803797773764744, 0.0, 0.6447747757508819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 1.0689006425311984, 0.09920880509067492, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.8226696984285448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.36164207566756346, 0.4811634809932853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 1.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.6815175097903985, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -5.015547460039781, "peer_score": 3.3454299777511607, "coverage": 0.9923306145491422, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9923306145491422, "spot_peer_score": -1.9484119241101427, "spot_baseline_score": -13.76478004679799, "baseline_archived_score": -5.015547460039781, "peer_archived_score": 3.3454299777511607, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.9484119241101427, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -13.76478004679799 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, Kraven the Hunter is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday." }, { "id": 30324, "title": "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-20T13:59:15.378637Z", "published_at": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.140305Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30123, "title": "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-20T13:59:15.378637Z", "open_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:39:49.940704Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\n\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found *what* is in their air, not *how much* or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\n\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \n\nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if any exoplanet with >5% O2 atmosphere is found before January 1, 2025", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30324, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732202014.537339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732202014.537339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.040201394702567055 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7020670829292148, 1.767872994205772, 1.7025971417466648, 0.8114374535844112, 0.35322837043496264, 3.1132701506304947, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 1.2213307094298036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.88286671284887, "peer_score": -0.2536984249810951, "coverage": 0.9912688196864392, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9912688196864392, "spot_peer_score": 0.04406558489004137, "spot_baseline_score": 94.11063109464314, "baseline_archived_score": 92.88286671284887, "peer_archived_score": -0.2536984249810951, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.04406558489004137, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 94.11063109464314 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\n\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found *what* is in their air, not *how much* or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\n\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \n\nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life." }, { "id": 30323, "title": "Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-december-31-2024-will-tech-crunch-report-new-layoffs-at-google-or-alphabet", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-20T13:59:15.337167Z", "published_at": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.944524Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30122, "title": "Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?", "created_at": "2024-11-20T13:59:15.337167Z", "open_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:21:54.034045Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google is most recently listed in July 2024, with the blurb saying, \"Is reportedly making large cuts globally across several of its Cloud teams, including teams focused on sustainability, consulting and partner engineering.\" Google has also been mentioned in May, April, and January.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/11/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Google (or Alphabet) has layoffs following the launch of this question and before December 31, 2024. To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on December 31, 2024, and see if Google or Alphabet appears for October 2024, November 2024, or December 2024. If Google or Alphabet are not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "As the parent company of Google, Alphabet is an acceptable synonym for Google. Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.\n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Google or Alphabet. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.\n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. 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To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on December 31, 2024, and see if Tesla appears for November 2024 or December 2024. If Tesla is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "For ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.\n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. 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"spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tesla is most recently listed in April 2024, with the blurb saying, \"Has gutted its charging team in a new round of layoffs, CEO Elon Musk announced in an overnight email to executives.\" " }, { "id": 30321, "title": "Will South Carolina have 300,000 or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-south-carolina-have-300000-or-more-residents-living-in-drought-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, 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"include" } }, "question": { "id": 30120, "title": "Will South Carolina have 300,000 or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-20T13:59:15.263607Z", "open_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:10:25.596873Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, 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