Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1620
{ "count": 6322, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1640", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1600", "results": [ { "id": 34456, "title": "Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?", "short_title": "US Debt Ceiling Increased Before March 17, 2025?", "url_title": "US Debt Ceiling Increased Before March 17, 2025?", "slug": "us-debt-ceiling-increased-before-march-17-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-27T20:33:52.472036Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T23:42:57.109645Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.434297Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-30T23:42:57.109641Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-16T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-16T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T14:19:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 913, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 33973, "title": "Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-27T20:33:52.472481Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T14:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-17T14:32:07.737598Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-16T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-16T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe [debt limit](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling) or debt ceiling in the United States, first established in 1917, sets a limit on the amount of money the US Treasury can borrow. As the US typically borrows to pay prior obligations, reaching the debt limit also limits the ability of the Treasury to fulfill debt obligations, risking default. When the debt limit is reached the Treasury will typically undertake [extraordinary measures](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling#what_are_extraordinary_measures) to avoid default as long as possible.\n\nThe debt ceiling was last suspended in June 2023, but the suspension [expired in January 2025](https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/17/business/debt-ceiling-limit-congress/index.html). On January 17, outgoing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [notified Congress](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2798) that the Treasury had begun taking extraordinary measures to avoid default, including implementing a \"debt issuance suspension period\" on certain funds the government typically invests. This suspension period was specified to persist through March 14, 2025.\n\n[According to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation](https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-debt-ceiling-will-be-reinstated-on-january-1-heres-whats-at-stake/):\n\n> The extraordinary measures and cash balance typically can last up to a few months. Most recently, extraordinary measures enabled the government to continue meeting its obligations from January 2023 until lawmakers suspended the debt ceiling in June 2023 as part of the [Fiscal Responsibility Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/3746).\n> \n> If the available options are exhausted prior to legislation being enacted to adjust the debt ceiling, the United States would default on its debt.\n\nThe brinkmanship involved in the 2023 debt ceiling suspension was a contributing factor to the US' credit rating being [downgraded](https://www.pgpf.org/article/moodys-lowers-us-credit-rating-to-negative-citing-large-federal-deficits/) by two credit agencies, Fitch and Moody's, later in 2023.\n\nReaching an agreement to raise or suspend the debt ceiling [could be difficult](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-ponders-raise-debt-ceiling-dozens-members-ve-always-held-rcna188824) for President Trump and Congress due to the Republicans' thin majority in the House of Representatives.\n\nFor additional resources, see a [tracker of the historical debt limit and debt subject to limit](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/DebtLimit.html) and the Congressional Research Service report [*Debt Limit Policy Questions: How Long Do Extraordinary Measures Last?*](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12147)", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if, before March 17, 2025, Eastern Time, the United States enacts a law that increases the statutory debt limit, suspends it for any period of time, or abolishes it, according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "* Any amount of increase to the debt limit qualifies.\n* Only an enacted law is sufficient. Attempts to increase, suspend, or abolish the debt limit by other means, such as by executive order, are immaterial.", "post_id": 34456, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742159266.302842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 908, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.009 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742159266.302842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 908, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01909406776163687 ], "histogram": [ [ 44.15952751326118, 8.53765610732433, 1.378552368434914, 1.4222293977602254, 0.905113300866651, 0.3701431926933223, 0.086104551792063, 0.05072532278811118, 0.037327592107323726, 0.004062377224290545, 0.03340762926180281, 0.0028021871640248964, 0.06200539249762569, 0.0009652037960361101, 0.15404511548814487, 0.0028612747095457945, 0.00011100495444255992, 0.029794306572443374, 0.020280666625520007, 0.002060408133938607, 0.007414929544426336, 9.867093302218184e-06, 5.9450676435186695e-05, 5.9276735486169614e-05, 2.1782363745845994e-05, 0.06014739780260057, 8.573341162878922e-06, 7.044944001499341e-05, 7.490970499956754e-05, 0.0, 0.18785776533521437, 3.392654592768297e-05, 5.1324776099486825e-09, 2.76362082625106e-06, 2.677965339005846e-07, 0.004169960953851472, 5.094018643811986e-05, 0.00011529018628163111, 2.802562001105329e-09, 1.4576807319114256e-06, 0.012233849019999327, 1.022864321065147e-06, 0.004634617811829338, 7.055283205279752e-07, 0.0001847809769716166, 5.835186179311439e-07, 1.5136854854225753e-05, 0.7283778688062365, 0.0, 0.0, 5.977554276778088e-06, 0.013219621566511677, 0.0, 0.0, 4.945716823043786e-11, 0.011730174572321813, 0.17812086900245447, 2.2858637133871944e-05, 0.0, 7.356895820940528e-05, 0.011131177232701815, 7.142008379489024e-08, 2.699990726108554e-05, 4.759896259365401e-05, 0.003487528898370424, 0.03358912466214737, 3.7395390549006285e-10, 2.8525222862104003e-08, 1.295893887833145e-05, 9.854474783283064e-08, 0.011425007856501683, 0.012965991614889023, 2.6033899674480277e-07, 4.065823620524854e-08, 3.304871778376299e-11, 0.00012464532129472116, 3.3001489193433625e-07, 0.0004407421796216295, 3.096117679335171e-05, 3.0148016634664973e-12, 2.645310442105944e-05, 2.3708771600712713e-11, 6.549167773500083e-06, 0.0006277145750394096, 3.3785417520287157e-07, 2.829508435516378e-08, 0.06070449027452132, 1.7137818264239482e-06, 1.2535912258147194e-07, 1.716181665904159e-09, 0.0618049876818736, 0.0, 4.607739419988265e-07, 0.0, 0.002615624816602904, 3.3005594422448196e-11, 6.421521991243682e-09, 2.2722981608695937e-08, 0.0, 0.0998917950567262 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 79.72466572391139, "peer_score": 74.6076508307552, "coverage": 0.9997731049654859, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997731049654859, "spot_peer_score": 83.46462912000243, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 79.72466572391139, "peer_archived_score": 74.6076508307552, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 83.46462912000243, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3021, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe [debt limit](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling) or debt ceiling in the United States, first established in 1917, sets a limit on the amount of money the US Treasury can borrow. As the US typically borrows to pay prior obligations, reaching the debt limit also limits the ability of the Treasury to fulfill debt obligations, risking default. When the debt limit is reached the Treasury will typically undertake [extraordinary measures](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling#what_are_extraordinary_measures) to avoid default as long as possible.\n\nThe debt ceiling was last suspended in June 2023, but the suspension [expired in January 2025](https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/17/business/debt-ceiling-limit-congress/index.html). On January 17, outgoing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [notified Congress](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2798) that the Treasury had begun taking extraordinary measures to avoid default, including implementing a \"debt issuance suspension period\" on certain funds the government typically invests. This suspension period was specified to persist through March 14, 2025.\n\n[According to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation](https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-debt-ceiling-will-be-reinstated-on-january-1-heres-whats-at-stake/):\n\n> The extraordinary measures and cash balance typically can last up to a few months. Most recently, extraordinary measures enabled the government to continue meeting its obligations from January 2023 until lawmakers suspended the debt ceiling in June 2023 as part of the [Fiscal Responsibility Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/3746).\n> \n> If the available options are exhausted prior to legislation being enacted to adjust the debt ceiling, the United States would default on its debt.\n\nThe brinkmanship involved in the 2023 debt ceiling suspension was a contributing factor to the US' credit rating being [downgraded](https://www.pgpf.org/article/moodys-lowers-us-credit-rating-to-negative-citing-large-federal-deficits/) by two credit agencies, Fitch and Moody's, later in 2023.\n\nReaching an agreement to raise or suspend the debt ceiling [could be difficult](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-ponders-raise-debt-ceiling-dozens-members-ve-always-held-rcna188824) for President Trump and Congress due to the Republicans' thin majority in the House of Representatives.\n\nFor additional resources, see a [tracker of the historical debt limit and debt subject to limit](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/DebtLimit.html) and the Congressional Research Service report [*Debt Limit Policy Questions: How Long Do Extraordinary Measures Last?*](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12147)" }, { "id": 34454, "title": "Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?", "short_title": "OpenAI Releases Full o3 Model Before March 28, 2025?", "url_title": "OpenAI Releases Full o3 Model Before March 28, 2025?", "slug": "openai-releases-full-o3-model-before-march-28-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-27T19:38:09.563228Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T23:43:16.526471Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.824452Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-30T23:43:16.526469Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1010, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 33971, "title": "Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-27T19:38:09.563628Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-28T21:00:53.746931Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-27T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-27T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI announced its forthcoming o3 and o3-mini AI models in a [<u>livestream</u>](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKBG1sqdyIU) on December 20, 2024. Described as a successor to o1 and skipping over o2, purportedly due to [<u>Telefonica’s O2</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O2_\\(UK\\)), OpenAI [<u>described</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-announces-o3-models-175657596.html) o3 as a significant breakthrough in AI reasoning. The model was reported to have significantly outperformed any previous AI system [<u>on coding and research-level math</u>](https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1870172996650053653?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1870172996650053653%7Ctwgr%5E16fa4771724238be9b30de71968a334c68bca7af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2024%2F12%2F20%2Fopenai-announces-new-o3-model%2F), and also [<u>exceeded previous performance</u>](https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough) on the [<u>Abstract and Reasoning Corpus for Artificial General Intelligence</u>](https://arcprize.org/arc) (ARC-AGI) challenge by far, even reaching approximately human level. According to ARC-AGI:\n\n> Despite the significant cost per task, these numbers aren't just the result of applying brute force compute to the benchmark. OpenAI's new o3 model represents a significant leap forward in AI's ability to adapt to novel tasks. This is not merely incremental improvement, but a genuine breakthrough, marking a qualitative shift in AI capabilities compared to the prior limitations of LLMs. o3 is a system capable of adapting to tasks it has never encountered before, arguably approaching human-level performance in the ARC-AGI domain.\n> \n> Of course, such generality comes at a steep cost, and wouldn't quite be economical yet: you could pay a human to solve ARC-AGI tasks for roughly \\$5 per task (we know, we did that), while consuming mere cents in energy. Meanwhile o3 requires \\$17-20 per task in the low-compute mode. But cost-performance will likely improve quite dramatically over the next few months and years, so you should plan for these capabilities to become competitive with human work within a fairly short timeline.\n\nOpenAI also announced applicants could [<u>apply</u>](https://openai.com/index/early-access-for-safety-testing/) to help safety test forthcoming advanced models. In the announcement video, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman [<u>said</u>](https://www.youtube.com/live/SKBG1sqdyIU?si=_93eeXULrkrt8K_o\\&t=1293):\n\n> We plan to launch o3-mini around the end of January, and full o3 shortly after that, but . . . the more people can help us safety test the more we can make sure we hit that.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 28, 2025, Eastern Time, OpenAI has made the full version of its announced o3 model publicly available via web interface.", "fine_print": "* Models that OpenAI states are powered by o3 will generally not count as the full o3 model, unless OpenAI publicly confirms that a released model is the planned release of o3. For example, the [deep research](https://openai.com/index/introducing-deep-research/) agent OpenAI released on February 2, 2025, will not count unless OpenAI states that the model is the anticipated release of the o3 model, in which case the question will resolve as **Yes** at the time that statement is made.\n* An o3 version will be considered to be the “full” version if it does not have any qualifiers in its name or description that suggest that the version is not the full version.\n * For example “o3-mini” would not count, and neither would a model named “o3-preview” or described in the announcement or model description as a preview or otherwise not yet the full o3. Stated intentions to continue developing and improving the o3 model will **not** on their own result in the model being considered to not yet be the full version of o3.\n * Names or descriptions that suggest a variant form of a “full” version will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**. For example, o3-pro would be sufficient, while different versions with low and high compute times would also count, for example “o3-low” or “o3-high”, so long as Metaculus assesses that their descriptions are compatible with being a variant of o3 full.\n* It is immaterial if o3 is released with limited or restricted reasoning or compute times. For example, if o3 is released in a manner that satisfies these criteria but is only available in “low” compute mode or has similar restrictions, the question will still resolve as **Yes**.\n* In the event OpenAI renames o3 to be something other than o3, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI states that the model is the one formerly announced as o3 and all other criteria have been met.\n* Metaculus will defer to statements made by OpenAI. For example, it will be immaterial if there is speculation that a released o3 model does not have the full capabilities described in previous announcements of o3.\n* Releases of other models are immaterial. For example if GPT-5 is released and it is not publicly described by OpenAI as being o3, that will not be sufficient.\n* The model will be considered publicly available via web interface if it is available on a webpage for users to interact and converse with, including if limited only to paid subscribers of a certain payment tier, and all of the following availability criteria also apply:\n * It must be available to users in the United States. Availability in other countries is not required.\n * It must not be subject to an invite-only waitlist, for example invite-only betas or testing periods are not sufficient. \n * In the event of a gradual or phased rollout, or in the event access and signups are disabled due to high demand, the question will resolve as **Yes** if at least two Metaculus admins are able to access o3, on separate accounts, as described in these criteria before the date in question. Metaculus admins will not make excessive effort to check for access or to try to get access (aside from completing any signup or subscription steps needed to access o3), and will simply check periodically whether they can access o3.\n * Rate limits or usage restrictions on the number of messages allowed are immaterial, so long as at least one message and response can be had.\n* Release of o3 via API without being released as a web interface is not sufficient.", "post_id": 34454, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743111148.53433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1004, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743111148.53433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1004, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.03140566243178505 ], "histogram": [ [ 51.866956568045346, 5.197759949904524, 0.15112500387248684, 0.5275882010528484, 0.04032139138930005, 0.34275782441177427, 0.0025887028099425367, 0.2992554487000638, 2.8229421982006357e-09, 1.0001459429237601e-10, 1.1557224762654439, 0.04359597335512812, 0.0, 0.0001966113073889668, 0.12391940268612617, 4.595097664142577e-06, 2.8649267186845535e-08, 5.842909429657552e-09, 1.4424897792550958e-07, 0.0, 5.311173225295181e-06, 9.531746092156411e-05, 2.489715849256822e-08, 0.0, 0.16201329462194425, 0.07033959849144233, 1.3783240308891696e-05, 4.232358650647132e-06, 3.915582996614932e-06, 0.0, 0.032170978652771715, 3.4375390864687152e-06, 5.042074936479863e-07, 6.838747198744426e-06, 6.2170196540308365e-06, 0.0007691447308023981, 2.8590514528030427e-06, 0.0, 8.408746498764753e-08, 3.83375058735683e-07, 8.313023640950447e-07, 7.456433768267263e-11, 0.04282792545336189, 1.2574369475866578e-07, 1.299889111207961e-09, 2.6712019969106545e-08, 0.0, 6.112181899293111e-07, 9.064914591173229e-06, 0.0, 0.005573876555021043, 0.0007087839249432702, 2.286753037798356e-09, 0.0, 8.411093778750756e-06, 7.674423708663602e-06, 1.4088878370556721e-05, 9.590276894643578e-06, 0.0, 6.985568367875261e-08, 0.010693285111451439, 0.023363353758739224, 9.253807998807052e-07, 0.09936985745622559, 1.2528980046397129e-08, 0.35027445245558453, 1.3898694541993166e-05, 6.028884393590857e-06, 0.017191611876085398, 9.675745932465991e-07, 2.8206205443497427e-05, 0.005676906885054595, 0.00047889979979726734, 1.2716794611221104e-06, 0.05833670085085154, 2.3610942247152023e-05, 4.673249864436078e-06, 4.078502255054833e-08, 1.1427985372730518e-05, 0.07688180533969345, 1.85220144914863e-05, 1.2716583025115134e-06, 0.006234308805112233, 3.2240663098082437e-09, 1.8641405336065955e-06, 3.9709264382054385e-06, 2.673912232053724e-10, 3.0741700960990724e-08, 5.605533413498251e-07, 1.8968020021123035e-06, 0.5036137499181388, 0.00044975776553487335, 6.914439509062831e-08, 0.0, 0.0013824231173854614, 1.8566667747720162e-06, 0.0, 0.00795075966368717, 7.403789445251924e-08, 0.6448246576974008 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.85598053103577, "peer_score": 75.81395020454318, "coverage": 0.9998344079190787, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998344079190787, "spot_peer_score": 62.53961824024994, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": 71.85598053103577, "peer_archived_score": 75.81395020454318, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 62.53961824024994, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2665, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI announced its forthcoming o3 and o3-mini AI models in a [<u>livestream</u>](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKBG1sqdyIU) on December 20, 2024. Described as a successor to o1 and skipping over o2, purportedly due to [<u>Telefonica’s O2</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O2_\\(UK\\)), OpenAI [<u>described</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-announces-o3-models-175657596.html) o3 as a significant breakthrough in AI reasoning. The model was reported to have significantly outperformed any previous AI system [<u>on coding and research-level math</u>](https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1870172996650053653?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1870172996650053653%7Ctwgr%5E16fa4771724238be9b30de71968a334c68bca7af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2024%2F12%2F20%2Fopenai-announces-new-o3-model%2F), and also [<u>exceeded previous performance</u>](https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough) on the [<u>Abstract and Reasoning Corpus for Artificial General Intelligence</u>](https://arcprize.org/arc) (ARC-AGI) challenge by far, even reaching approximately human level. According to ARC-AGI:\n\n> Despite the significant cost per task, these numbers aren't just the result of applying brute force compute to the benchmark. OpenAI's new o3 model represents a significant leap forward in AI's ability to adapt to novel tasks. This is not merely incremental improvement, but a genuine breakthrough, marking a qualitative shift in AI capabilities compared to the prior limitations of LLMs. o3 is a system capable of adapting to tasks it has never encountered before, arguably approaching human-level performance in the ARC-AGI domain.\n> \n> Of course, such generality comes at a steep cost, and wouldn't quite be economical yet: you could pay a human to solve ARC-AGI tasks for roughly \\$5 per task (we know, we did that), while consuming mere cents in energy. Meanwhile o3 requires \\$17-20 per task in the low-compute mode. But cost-performance will likely improve quite dramatically over the next few months and years, so you should plan for these capabilities to become competitive with human work within a fairly short timeline.\n\nOpenAI also announced applicants could [<u>apply</u>](https://openai.com/index/early-access-for-safety-testing/) to help safety test forthcoming advanced models. In the announcement video, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman [<u>said</u>](https://www.youtube.com/live/SKBG1sqdyIU?si=_93eeXULrkrt8K_o\\&t=1293):\n\n> We plan to launch o3-mini around the end of January, and full o3 shortly after that, but . . . the more people can help us safety test the more we can make sure we hit that." }, { "id": 34415, "title": "Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?", "short_title": "Starship IFT-8 160 KM Altitude Before March 10, 2025?", "url_title": "Starship IFT-8 160 KM Altitude Before March 10, 2025?", "slug": "starship-ift-8-160-km-altitude-before-march-10-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-27T13:25:33.259364Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T23:42:18.403830Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.737300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-30T23:42:18.403827Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T19:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 887, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 33933, "title": "Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-27T13:25:33.259748Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T19:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-10T19:16:08.353605Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-09T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-09T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\n[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_\\(spacecraft\\)) as the second stage. SpaceX [describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as \"the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable.\"\n\nSo far Starship has undergone [seven \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches), two in 2023, four in 2024, and one in 2025 using the new Block 2 ship design. The ship of the latter flight exploded over the Turks and Caicos Islands during initial burn, likely due to a fuel leak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after February 3, 2025 and before March 10, 2025, Eastern Time, a Starship vehicle reaches an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 99 miles) intact. For this to count, the Starship spacecraft has to be stacked on top of the Super Heavy booster at launch with both launched together.", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve according to information published by SpaceX, including telemetry displayed during its livestream (provided Metaculus has no reason to believe the displayed telemetry is in error), or reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). In the event the altitude achieved is near 160 km but it is not clear whether 160 km was reached, Metaculus may wait for confirmation of the final altitude achieved to resolve the question. If on March 25, 2025, Metaculus determines that there is not sufficient evidence available to determine whether Starship reached an altitude of 160 km the question will be **annulled**. A statement from SpaceX or reporting from credible sources saying that Starship reached an altitude of \"approximately 160 kilometers\" or \"\\~160 kilometers\" or similar will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**, so long as the estimated altitude is 160 kilometers or more.\n* The Starship will be considered to be \"intact\" even if it has minor damage or defects, so long as it remains largely whole.", "post_id": 34415, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741555595.969061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 881, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741555595.969061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 881, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01166688178904359 ], "histogram": [ [ 50.01330036471346, 1.7412873834740887, 0.8890655126686507, 1.0006722808225976, 0.4247876826940426, 1.9495132301149503, 0.00011709280459960051, 7.640472098642274e-05, 0.006707273035046925, 3.15110060549006e-05, 0.8167690546407844, 0.00011161581649186007, 0.0012881214102031518, 3.668998348818606e-05, 4.783023266383124e-05, 0.2653745845607644, 0.07416715942611497, 2.2988496394831236e-05, 5.103874439262486e-05, 3.312409211273971e-05, 7.270759840893506e-06, 6.452725612129437e-05, 3.217849845698039e-06, 3.7237353452163814e-05, 2.241579035137164e-08, 0.00028096703974088644, 0.0, 1.2552720356774753e-06, 1.0455132057777286e-05, 0.0, 0.27494827190765453, 2.110924981305748e-06, 2.680935886666414e-06, 1.0241653697951957e-06, 2.765865066701097e-06, 0.001896436359880667, 6.270219721687493e-06, 5.570575024140137e-06, 7.331825139527403e-05, 1.6865094449134185e-06, 0.25630363531445177, 2.008317541937687e-08, 4.576581678048369e-09, 0.00035053345522059374, 0.00011869035924007946, 9.519032482001517e-05, 0.0, 0.0013384741389865233, 2.8445387387464276e-06, 0.0, 0.008770238024744935, 2.5628415265731795e-09, 0.0, 0.0001022857710772414, 0.0002262881351468939, 3.761696284924459e-05, 0.001672439950604951, 9.98188623449268e-05, 0.0, 0.00037699294600680776, 0.0020883237428768004, 1.697001223435981e-08, 0.00035369745555295033, 0.0013041434350182977, 1.8427619265234837e-05, 0.0011012535431049004, 0.0003348916490792708, 5.301545400370531e-07, 0.0005990670781401261, 0.0005598987859991924, 0.0017250659908121069, 0.0012883808697099863, 0.0008264349590555942, 0.0012271605497857431, 0.0011929131662418188, 0.0013190432318024624, 0.00598303057772679, 0.003084464677165116, 0.0003425513471514662, 0.0035542730071300064, 0.0033031557487823745, 0.0014130795054347243, 0.07121872135557077, 4.772506538829126e-11, 0.0017134046536633506, 0.006923148304799494, 0.0009028823110177302, 0.0013094045586610785, 0.0014590491381956052, 0.0005165699892462484, 0.002797002216349, 6.715391756870545e-09, 2.8065519638311314e-11, 0.0006325631155626137, 0.00212451863233324, 2.6176855198399683e-07, 7.180343218661212e-11, 4.544303471579984e-05, 0.0006615239401813709, 0.01246668609632893 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 6.030379002785795, "peer_score": 34.68629428351258, "coverage": 0.999748046775467, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999748046775467, "spot_peer_score": 62.19732658882869, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 6.030379002785795, "peer_archived_score": 34.68629428351258, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 62.19732658882869, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\n[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_\\(spacecraft\\)) as the second stage. SpaceX [describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as \"the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable.\"\n\nSo far Starship has undergone [seven \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches), two in 2023, four in 2024, and one in 2025 using the new Block 2 ship design. The ship of the latter flight exploded over the Turks and Caicos Islands during initial burn, likely due to a fuel leak." }, { "id": 34396, "title": "Will the U.S. annex any part of Canada before June 3, 2072?", "short_title": "US annex Canada before June 3, 2072?", "url_title": "US annex Canada before June 3, 2072?", "slug": "us-annex-canada-before-june-3-2072", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T12:31:39.749547Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T21:39:05.339823Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.370555Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-12T21:39:05.339821Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2072-06-03T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-17T21:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 33889, "title": "Will the U.S. annex any part of Canada before June 3, 2072?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T12:31:39.750005Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T21:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-02T21:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-02T21:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2072-06-03T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the fictional universe of the [Fallout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallout_\\(franchise\\)) games the United States officially announced the annexation of Canada [on June 3, 2072](https://fallout.fandom.com/wiki/United_States_annexation_of_Canada) as a step in protecting Alaska from the ongoing Chinese invasion. The annexation process had fully concluded in 2077.\n\nWhile historically unlikely, political speculation about annexing Canada in the real world has been fueled by recent provocative comments from U.S. political figures, such as Donald Trump, who in 2024 mentioned that Canada can [become a 51st state](https://ground.news/article/donald-trump-says-canada-becoming-51st-us-state-a-great-idea_a35169). His remarks, while often dismissed as hyperbole or humor, have sparked discussions about the plausibility of such a scenario.\n\nCanadian prime minister Justin Trudeau (who was mentioned by Trump as \"governor Trudeau\") announced in January 2025 that he will resign from his post and leave his position as a leader of the Liberal Party.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before **June 3, 2072**, any part of Canada's internationally recognized territory (as of the moment of annexation) officially becomes part of the United States as a state, territory, or other political unit through a formal process. The process must meet both the following conditions:\n\n1. **Legal Recognition**: The annexation of Canadian territory must be acknowledged by the U.S.\n2. **Territorial Integration**: The annexed area must be formally integrated into the United States as a state, territory, or other political unit recognized by U.S. law.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** if:\n\n* No part of Canada's territory becomes part of the United States by the specified date.\n* Canada undergoes significant political restructuring (e.g., independence movements or mergers with other entities) but does not result in U.S. annexation of any Canadian territory.\n* No credible legal or political consensus exists regarding U.S. annexation of Canadian territory.\n\nResolves based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Territories that were part of the [active disputes between US and Canada as of January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_areas_disputed_by_Canada_and_the_United_States\\&oldid=1262584342#Current_disputes) will not affect question resolution. These disputes are:\n\n* Machias Seal Island\n* Strait of Juan de Fuca\n* Yukon–Alaska dispute, Beaufort Sea\n* Northwest Passage\n* Dixon Entrance", "post_id": 34396, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756340288.238079, "end_time": 1784098145.826, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756340288.238079, "end_time": 1784098145.826, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.059148537944225185 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0063774501292635, 0.6984449301569673, 0.7371557070192187, 0.0, 1.625071309678011, 1.0976103830298731, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.3022135829173027, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the fictional universe of the [Fallout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallout_\\(franchise\\)) games the United States officially announced the annexation of Canada [on June 3, 2072](https://fallout.fandom.com/wiki/United_States_annexation_of_Canada) as a step in protecting Alaska from the ongoing Chinese invasion. The annexation process had fully concluded in 2077.\n\nWhile historically unlikely, political speculation about annexing Canada in the real world has been fueled by recent provocative comments from U.S. political figures, such as Donald Trump, who in 2024 mentioned that Canada can [become a 51st state](https://ground.news/article/donald-trump-says-canada-becoming-51st-us-state-a-great-idea_a35169). His remarks, while often dismissed as hyperbole or humor, have sparked discussions about the plausibility of such a scenario.\n\nCanadian prime minister Justin Trudeau (who was mentioned by Trump as \"governor Trudeau\") announced in January 2025 that he will resign from his post and leave his position as a leader of the Liberal Party." }, { "id": 34390, "title": "Will Justin Trudeau cease to be Prime Minister of Canada before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-justin-trudeau-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-canada-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T07:08:59.149952Z", "published_at": "2025-01-28T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.078906Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-14T16:41:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 33887, "title": "Will Justin Trudeau cease to be Prime Minister of Canada before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T07:08:59.149952Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-14T16:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-14T16:42:41.174875Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "AP: [Canada's Trudeau reshuffles his Cabinet as resignation calls mount and new election threat looms](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/canada-s-trudeau-to-shuffle-his-cabinet-amid-resignation-calls-and-rising-discontent/ar-AA1weqzn)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if according to credible sources Justin Trudeau ceases to be the prime minister of Canada before April 1, 2025, for any reason including but not limited to resignation, impeachment, losing an election, or removal from office via any method. Otherwise, this question resolves as No.", "fine_print": "In cases of severe uncertainty causing disagreement among credible sources, Admins will refer to the [UN Heads of State list](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) to see if Trudeau's name is still listed for Canada.", "post_id": 34390, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738275902.836517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.925 ], "centers": [ 0.955 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738275902.836517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.925 ], "centers": [ 0.955 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.04500000000000004, 0.955 ], "means": [ 0.9419083192943186 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8412010461330255, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.836210144384, "peer_score": 2.5229613230408447, "coverage": 0.9677985272151574, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9677985272151574, "spot_peer_score": 1.6978387783191156, "spot_baseline_score": 93.35726382610238, "baseline_archived_score": 87.836210144384, "peer_archived_score": 2.5229613230408447, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.6978387783191156, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 93.35726382610238 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "AP: [Canada's Trudeau reshuffles his Cabinet as resignation calls mount and new election threat looms](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/canada-s-trudeau-to-shuffle-his-cabinet-amid-resignation-calls-and-rising-discontent/ar-AA1weqzn)" }, { "id": 34388, "title": "Will Mike Johnson cease to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-mike-johnson-cease-to-be-speaker-of-the-us-house-of-representatives-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T07:08:59.077816Z", "published_at": "2025-01-28T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.360856Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - 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deadline](https://abc7.com/post/republicans-fume-speaker-mike-johnsons-spending-plan-days-shutdown-deadline/15668588/)" }, { "id": 34386, "title": "Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-north-korea-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T07:08:58.888108Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.058263Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": 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The most recent one before then was July 10, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if no new posts appear at Virgin Galactic's News page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.virgingalactic.com/news), timestamped after the launch of this question and before Apir 1, 2025. If there is a new post, then this question resolves as **No**. 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All that is required is for there to be an announcement or confirmation before the resolution date about the removal from the DJIA at any point in time. 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Otherwise, this question resolves as No.", "fine_print": "If Ruto is still President of Kenya but another individual takes over temporarily, this will not count as long as Ruto resumes his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **Yes**. This 30 day period must complete before October 1, 2024, otherwise the question will resolve as **No** if the other criteria have not been met.\n\nIf Ruto ceases to be President and takes another role such as Prime Minister, this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIn cases of severe uncertainty causing disagreement among credible sources, Admins will refer to the [UN Heads of State list](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) to see if Ruto's name is still listed as President of the Republic of Kenya.", "post_id": 34284, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738288168.771061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19333333333333327 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738288168.771061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19333333333333327 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1244294416311745 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9375127384328956, 0.8682741880975265, 0.43131426209606216, 0.0, 0.9639359277351315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.9534585722044565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1167891006966584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.9583963223233507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.70827708171282, "peer_score": 5.102046803502024, "coverage": 0.9497666149669224, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9497666149669224, "spot_peer_score": 8.749828789702416, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 82.70827708171282, "peer_archived_score": 5.102046803502024, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.749828789702416, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "BBC: [Kenya's Ruto embraces rivals to shore up support](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gl3xdye97o)" }, { "id": 34283, "title": "Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-world-health-organization-prequalify-moxidectin-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:53.127870Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.830052Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:39:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n\nAs of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n\nHowever, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n\nIn 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n\nHowever, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n\nAccording to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n\n>Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n\n>In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n\nSee Also:\n\n- Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n- [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n- Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds moxidectin to its prequalification (PQ) list, according to official WHO announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Note that this question resolves **Yes** only if moxidectin achieves PQ approval for the treatment of onchocerciasis. If moxidectin achieves PQ approval for another indication, but not onchocerciasis, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nAlthough Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is developing moxidectin for potential WHO PQ, this question resolves regardless of which entity achieves the PQ.", "post_id": 34283, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738288673.640907, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.136 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738288673.640907, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.136 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16879711997966274 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1733610516338708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 1.084404382362697, 0.0, 1.9475078932095613, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6347939083912385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8492281349733315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.21986553111442, "peer_score": 1.3182719395924687, "coverage": 0.9550008047289322, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9550008047289322, "spot_peer_score": 2.592862821548089, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 76.21986553111442, "peer_archived_score": 1.3182719395924687, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.592862821548089, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n\nAccording to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n\n>Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n\nAs of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n\nHowever, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n\nIn 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n\nHowever, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n\nAccording to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n\n>Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n\n>In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n\nSee Also:\n\n- Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n- [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n- Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US." }, { "id": 34282, "title": "Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-government-of-greenland-officially-announce-a-date-for-an-independence-referendum-before-april-6-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.844109Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.933143Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-06T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T19:24:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33779, "title": "Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.844109Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-06T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T19:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T19:26:43.031769Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Greenland, population 56,000, is [the largest non-continent island in the world](https://denmark.dk/people-and-culture/greenland) and has been settled for 4,000-5,000 years. As of the writing of this question, Greenland is a Danish territory which has been [self-governing since 1979](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-would-greenlands-independence-mean-arctic) and which unveiled a draft constitution in 2023, a move that was widely regarded as an important milestone on its journey to independence. In November 2008, 75% of Greenlanders [voted for](https://visitgreenland.com/articles/greenlands-modern-path-to-independence/) the Self-Government Act, which greatly expanded the island's autonomy. Under an agreement signed with Denmark the next year, Greenland can declare independence after a successful referendum.\n\nGreenland has potentially the [second largest](https://ip-quarterly.com/en/dont-buy-greenland-buy-its-minerals) reserves of rare earth deposits in the world potentially offering an [alternative source](https://chinaobservers.eu/de-risking-rare-earths-the-greenland-stalemate-and-the-critical-raw-materials-act/) for the United States and its European allies, which are dependent on China for much of their supply. Rare earths [are essential components](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/why-world-turning-to-greenlands-rare-earth-metals/32694/) of a wide range of modern technological products, ranging from cell phones to electric vehicles.\n\nFrom a geopolitical perspective, Greenland is strategically located in the Arctic, home to Thule Air Base and close enough to Russia to make it a potential support point for tracking Russian military operations [according to CSIS](https://www.csis.org/analysis/geopolitics-and-neglected-arctic-spaces):\n\n\n\nOn Tuesday January 8, 2025, then-President Elect Donald Trump [said](https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-greenland-panama-criticism-us-expansion/), \"We need Greenland for national security purposes.\" His eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., [landed in Greenland](https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-not-for-sale-danish-pm-mette-frederiksen-us-donald-trump-jr/) for a visit, with President-Elect Trump [writing](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113787590758180339):\n\n> Don Jr. and my Reps landing in Greenland. The reception has been great. They, and the Free World, need safety, security, strength, and PEACE! This is a deal that must happen. MAGA. MAKE GREENLAND GREAT AGAIN!\n\nSince Denmark [has firmly rejected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/greenland-is-not-sale-its-leader-says-response-trump-2024-12-23/) the notion of America buying Greenland, another path to becoming part of the United State might lie in an independence referendum. Greenland is holding parliamentary elections in April 2025, and Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede [has hinted](https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-prime-minister-mute-egede-independence-denmark-colonialism-donald-trump-arctic/) that a referendum on independence could come in tandem with those elections. \n\nSee Also \n\n* Euro News: [Greenland's PM pushes for independence from Denmark amid Trump's interest](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/01/03/greenlands-pm-pushes-for-independence-from-denmark-amid-trumps-interest) \n* Wikipedia: [Independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_referendum) (includes historical list of independence referendums)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 6, 2025, the government of Greenland or any of its agencies officially announce (according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)) a specific date on which a referendum on independence from Denmark is scheduled. If no such announcement occurs before April 6, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34282, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738288654.635518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738288654.635518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3497254759462745 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4874162928957498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 1.4045197561552756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36011312136081397, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 1.2887017828032878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.405826700538625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 32.92220499836874, "peer_score": 18.552974470887087, "coverage": 0.9595925055609804, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9595925055609804, "spot_peer_score": 2.093845446500489, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 32.92220499836874, "peer_archived_score": 18.552974470887087, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.093845446500489, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Greenland, population 56,000, is [the largest non-continent island in the world](https://denmark.dk/people-and-culture/greenland) and has been settled for 4,000-5,000 years. As of the writing of this question, Greenland is a Danish territory which has been [self-governing since 1979](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-would-greenlands-independence-mean-arctic) and which unveiled a draft constitution in 2023, a move that was widely regarded as an important milestone on its journey to independence. In November 2008, 75% of Greenlanders [voted for](https://visitgreenland.com/articles/greenlands-modern-path-to-independence/) the Self-Government Act, which greatly expanded the island's autonomy. Under an agreement signed with Denmark the next year, Greenland can declare independence after a successful referendum.\n\nGreenland has potentially the [second largest](https://ip-quarterly.com/en/dont-buy-greenland-buy-its-minerals) reserves of rare earth deposits in the world potentially offering an [alternative source](https://chinaobservers.eu/de-risking-rare-earths-the-greenland-stalemate-and-the-critical-raw-materials-act/) for the United States and its European allies, which are dependent on China for much of their supply. Rare earths [are essential components](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/why-world-turning-to-greenlands-rare-earth-metals/32694/) of a wide range of modern technological products, ranging from cell phones to electric vehicles.\n\nFrom a geopolitical perspective, Greenland is strategically located in the Arctic, home to Thule Air Base and close enough to Russia to make it a potential support point for tracking Russian military operations [according to CSIS](https://www.csis.org/analysis/geopolitics-and-neglected-arctic-spaces):\n\n\n\nOn Tuesday January 8, 2025, then-President Elect Donald Trump [said](https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-greenland-panama-criticism-us-expansion/), \"We need Greenland for national security purposes.\" His eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., [landed in Greenland](https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-not-for-sale-danish-pm-mette-frederiksen-us-donald-trump-jr/) for a visit, with President-Elect Trump [writing](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113787590758180339):\n\n> Don Jr. and my Reps landing in Greenland. The reception has been great. They, and the Free World, need safety, security, strength, and PEACE! This is a deal that must happen. MAGA. MAKE GREENLAND GREAT AGAIN!\n\nSince Denmark [has firmly rejected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/greenland-is-not-sale-its-leader-says-response-trump-2024-12-23/) the notion of America buying Greenland, another path to becoming part of the United State might lie in an independence referendum. Greenland is holding parliamentary elections in April 2025, and Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede [has hinted](https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-prime-minister-mute-egede-independence-denmark-colonialism-donald-trump-arctic/) that a referendum on independence could come in tandem with those elections. \n\nSee Also \n\n* Euro News: [Greenland's PM pushes for independence from Denmark amid Trump's interest](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/01/03/greenlands-pm-pushes-for-independence-from-denmark-amid-trumps-interest) \n* Wikipedia: [Independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_referendum) (includes historical list of independence referendums)" }, { "id": 34277, "title": "Will Mike Johnson cease to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-mike-johnson-cease-to-be-speaker-of-the-us-house-of-representatives-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.495508Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.549990Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:11:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33774, "title": "Will Mike Johnson cease to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.495508Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:12:16.883627Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ABC News: ['Total dumpster fire': Republicans fume over speaker's spending plan days from shutdown deadline](https://abc7.com/post/republicans-fume-speaker-mike-johnsons-spending-plan-days-shutdown-deadline/15668588/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, Mike Johnson has ceased to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives. 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null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the USDA: \"Yu Shang Food, Inc., a Spartanburg, SC, establishment, is recalling approximately 72,240 pounds of ready-to-eat (RTE) meat and poultry products within their shelf life that may be adulterated with Listeria monocytogenes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). This release is being reissued to expand the scope of the [November 9, 2024](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/yu-shang-food-inc--recalls-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due-possible-listeria), recall.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Yu Shang Food, Inc.'s Ready-To-Eat Meat and Poultry Products is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/yu-shang-food-inc--recalls-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due-possible-0) is accessed by Metaculus after February 28, 2025. 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This release is being reissued to expand the scope of the [November 9, 2024](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/yu-shang-food-inc--recalls-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due-possible-listeria), recall.\"" } ] }
:\n\n\n\nOn](http://CSIS](https://www.csis.org/analysis/geopolitics-and-neglected-arctic-spaces):%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5CnOn){kind=link}