Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1640
{ "count": 6322, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1660", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1620", "results": [ { "id": 34273, "title": "Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tiktok-become-available-in-the-us-on-both-the-app-store-and-google-play-before-april-5-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.323213Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.070477Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T19:10:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33770, "title": "Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.323213Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T19:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T19:12:47.236242Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States Congress [passed a law](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-tiktok-being-banned-supreme-court-congress/) that bans TikTok from the US starting January 20, 2025, but President Trump [issued an executive order](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-executive-order-trump-0bbae2d2d6f102944f41bb75ad40ce69) delaying the implementation of the ban for 75 days. has claimed that he will overturn the ban. The question is whether or not he will be successful in doing so over the first few months of his presidency.\n\nSee also from Forbes: [When Will TikTok Be Back In App Stores? What Could Happen Without Updates](https://www.forbes.com/sites/monicamercuri/2025/01/22/when-will-tiktok-be-back-in-app-stores-what-could-happen-without-updates/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point after January 25, 2025 and before April 5, 2025, TikTok is available for download in the US from both the App Store and Google Play without the use of VPNs or other technical workarounds.", "fine_print": "* If the app is simultaneously available for any amount of time from both locations and then becomes unavailable again, this question will still resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 34273, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738201903.462916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738201903.462916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24114596358911397 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.505561395727673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4264494570652806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9273375289217768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.709657966497225, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -110.44470659422967, "peer_score": 20.541766832181413, "coverage": 0.9573949391974339, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9573949391974339, "spot_peer_score": -12.927104065618195, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -110.44470659422967, "peer_archived_score": 20.541766832181413, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.927104065618195, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States Congress [passed a law](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-tiktok-being-banned-supreme-court-congress/) that bans TikTok from the US starting January 20, 2025, but President Trump [issued an executive order](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-executive-order-trump-0bbae2d2d6f102944f41bb75ad40ce69) delaying the implementation of the ban for 75 days. has claimed that he will overturn the ban. The question is whether or not he will be successful in doing so over the first few months of his presidency.\n\nSee also from Forbes: [When Will TikTok Be Back In App Stores? What Could Happen Without Updates](https://www.forbes.com/sites/monicamercuri/2025/01/22/when-will-tiktok-be-back-in-app-stores-what-could-happen-without-updates/)" }, { "id": 34272, "title": "Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-north-korea-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.111478Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.611817Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33769, "title": "Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.111478Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:10:47.896811Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Wikipedia, \"North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and in 2017.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before April 1, 2025, North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting such as the [International Monitoring System’s ](https://www.ctbto.org/our-work/detecting-nuclear-tests) and the sources cited at Wikipedia's [List of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34272, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738202143.3997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19399999999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738202143.3997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19399999999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2573121687851898 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 1.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8701418056756425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 1.4662503269076896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Wikipedia, \"North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and in 2017.\"" }, { "id": 34271, "title": "Will the Euro Area Inflation Rate be above 2.4% for February 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-euro-area-inflation-rate-be-above-24-for-february-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.070741Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.342015Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T11:16:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33768, "title": "Will the Euro Area Inflation Rate be above 2.4% for February 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.070741Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T11:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-17T11:17:31.605309Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.53, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Euro News: [Eurozone inflation rises for third month as energy costs edge up](https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/01/17/eurozone-inflation-rises-for-third-month-as-energy-costs-edge-up)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Eurozone inflation rate for February 2025 is above 2.4% on an annualized basis according to [Trading 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Why Some X Users Are Convinced It's Elon Musk](https://www.newsweek.com/adrian-dittmann-elon-musk-comparison-twitter-x-2007173)" }, { "id": 34266, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will the government of Scotland officially announce a date for an independence referendum?", "short_title": "By 4/1/25, will govt of Scotland annce date for indep refm?", "url_title": "By 4/1/25, will govt of Scotland annce date for indep refm?", "slug": "by-4125-will-govt-of-scotland-annce-date-for-indep-refm", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:51.649872Z", "published_at": "2025-01-29T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.933620Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:05:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-29T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33763, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will the government of Scotland officially announce a date for an independence referendum?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:51.649872Z", "open_time": "2025-01-29T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:06:56.302068Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [Proposed second Scottish independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, a referendum on the independence of Scotland from the United Kingdom is officially scheduled. 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The resolution source is HHS's [PHE Declarations page](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/default.aspx) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if there is such a PHE declaration that for some reason does not appear on that page. \n", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34264, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738133616.503075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738133616.503075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.11418386317908574 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2036240465913632, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7121123026616726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.812777553962352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8254197381905033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.67099257535551, "peer_score": -1.3817842507689961, "coverage": 0.9529680083195369, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9529680083195369, "spot_peer_score": -3.090350203465862, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 73.67099257535551, "peer_archived_score": -1.3817842507689961, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.090350203465862, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to CDC, \"The Republic of Rwanda has confirmed several cases of Marburg virus disease (Marburg) in hospitals around the country, including some deaths. 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", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:51.519267Z", "open_time": "2025-01-29T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T11:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T11:57:11.487461Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 29, 2024, Michael Jordan's net worth was listed as $3.5 billion, according to Forbes, while Howard Schultz's net worth was $3.3 billion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Michael Jordan has a higher net worth than Howard Schultz on March 31, 2025. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If there is a tie when looking at dollar values of their net worths, this resolves as **No**. 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In February 2023, the lowest was 39 on the 23rd and 24th. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the low temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever below 40 degrees for the downtown San Francisco Downtown weather station in February 2025, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=SFOC1&network=CA_DCP). If the low for any day has not been below that, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. In order to streamline resolution, no other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to April 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 34257, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738133919.251815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4425 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738133919.251815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4425 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35187421047386064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8032060856314573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6632780714818297, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.742822033749408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7356010543311011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6650402975923998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 48.14830625855464, "peer_score": 6.703614897448668, "coverage": 0.994381141927507, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.994381141927507, "spot_peer_score": -0.09228804006422027, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 48.14830625855464, "peer_archived_score": 6.703614897448668, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.09228804006422027, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February 2024 this event did not occur. In February 2023, the lowest was 39 on the 23rd and 24th. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 34256, "title": "Will SpaceX fail to make any new posts on its Updates page before April 1, 2025? 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If there is no such post, this question resolves as **No**. 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The most recent one before then was July 10, 2024." }, { "id": 34254, "title": "Will any of these companies get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-of-these-companies-get-dropped-from-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.853076Z", "published_at": "2025-01-28T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.006669Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:02:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33751, "title": "Will any of these companies get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.853076Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:02:48.823368Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Oregon Business: [Intel Ousted From Dow Jones By Rival Nvidia](https://oregonbusiness.com/intel-ousted-from-dow-jones-by-rival-nvidia/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if before April 1, 2025, there is any official announcement or confirmation (or credible source reporting) that any of the following companies will no longer be a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) either on the official announcement or that the company' has been or will be removed from the index: Amazon.com Inc, American Express Co, Amgen Inc, Apple Inc, Boeing Co, Caterpillar Inc, Cisco Systems Inc, Chevron Corp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Home Depot Inc, Honeywell International Inc, International Business Machines Corp, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola Co, JPMorgan Chase & Co, McDonald’s Corp, 3M Co, Merck & Co Inc, Microsoft Corp, Nike Inc, Procter & Gamble Co, Sherwin-Williams Co, Travelers Companies Inc, Unitedhealth Group Inc, Salesforce Inc, NVIDIA Corp, Verizon Communications Inc, Visa Inc, Walmart Inc, Walt Disney Co.", "fine_print": "Although removals from the index are generally effective immediately in order to forestall frontrunning, this is not a requirement for this question. All that is required is for there to be an announcement or confirmation before the resolution date about the removal from the DJIA at any point in time. 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For example: [Has recent rainfall made a dent in the South Texas drought? Here's where we stand.](https://www.expressnews.com/san-antonio-weather/article/rain-south-texas-san-antonio-drought-update-19961967.php)" }, { "id": 34247, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-have-control-of-chasiv-yar-on-march-31-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.204318Z", "published_at": "2025-01-28T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.208866Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T11:46:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33744, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.204318Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T11:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T11:46:50.900475Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on or after March 31, 2025:\n\n48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E \n\nIf this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) \n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control \n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine \n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:\n\n- Areas with no coloration\n- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".\n\n- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.", "post_id": 34247, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738100679.58381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738100679.58381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.581288917316653 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2711794336755582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1624082587120177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5721843635183668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.26964019362466, "peer_score": -7.904651492155329, "coverage": 0.9935542136430742, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9935542136430742, "spot_peer_score": -22.60801281212541, "spot_baseline_score": 8.406426478847456, "baseline_archived_score": 43.26964019362466, "peer_archived_score": -7.904651492155329, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -22.60801281212541, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 8.406426478847456 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)" }, { "id": 34246, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on February 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-have-control-of-chasiv-yar-on-february-28-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.156842Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.967617Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-16T17:26:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33743, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on February 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.156842Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-16T17:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-16T17:35:15.923881Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on or after February 28, 2025:\n\n48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E \n\nIf this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) \n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control \n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine \n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:\n\n- Areas with no coloration\n- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".\n\n- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.", "post_id": 34246, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738018781.800354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738018781.800354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5844983413509993 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7287651222345652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6813134944700813, 0.0, 1.0, 0.9019935026160223, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25094036469438474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0719519678261453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3815909134497419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2720506699960181, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45149554862835356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -47.083398644994304, "peer_score": 21.371810298912777, "coverage": 0.9462412085798051, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9462412085798051, "spot_peer_score": 35.708044056477775, "spot_baseline_score": -12.029423371771195, "baseline_archived_score": -47.083398644994304, "peer_archived_score": 21.371810298912777, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.708044056477775, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -12.029423371771195 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)" }, { "id": 34245, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on January 30, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-have-control-of-chasiv-yar-on-january-30-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.097910Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.710060Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-11T03:28:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33742, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on January 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.097910Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-11T03:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-11T03:29:27.520425Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 30, 2025:\n\n48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E \n\nIf this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) \n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control \n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine \n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:\n\n- Areas with no coloration\n- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".\n\n- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.", "post_id": 34245, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738018781.490966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738018781.490966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5824508874940674 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3484801054844811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17753889170438222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12403378248661255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6317215992479355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 44.86159598031185, "peer_score": 16.828180438899626, "coverage": 0.9486779650052387, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9486779650052387, "spot_peer_score": 10.455395688349206, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 44.86159598031185, "peer_archived_score": 16.828180438899626, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.455395688349206, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)" }, { "id": 34242, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:49.811375Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.234931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:44:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33739, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:49.811375Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T11:48:25.544744Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.53, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on November 8, 2024 and September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.\n", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before the resolution date, as long as the announcement is made before then.", "post_id": 34242, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738018792.899448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738018792.899448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3040547527725028 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 1.0278039913470645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.230887815716027, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.4998325749597323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2443529698557632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8075193842755515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 47.05910982632452, "peer_score": 11.599905931204185, "coverage": 0.9664872508578831, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9664872508578831, "spot_peer_score": 7.137743898665456, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 47.05910982632452, "peer_archived_score": 11.599905931204185, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.137743898665456, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on November 8, 2024 and September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. " } ] }
