Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1640
{ "count": 5947, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1660", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1620", "results": [ { "id": 30302, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?", "short_title": "Bitcoin rally", "url_title": "Bitcoin rally", "slug": "bitcoin-rally", "author_id": 212347, "author_username": "g-w1", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T21:08:33.552787Z", "published_at": "2024-11-19T21:08:38.345491Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.014315Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-19T21:08:38.345489Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T23:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T23:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T21:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 30104, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T21:08:33.553138Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T21:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-24T21:08:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-24T21:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T23:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T23:34:34.316603Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:24:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T23:33:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29900/bitcoin-dominance-630-on-any-day-in-novdec-2024/ crosspost for Brown group", "resolution_criteria": "from https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29900/bitcoin-dominance-630-on-any-day-in-novdec-2024/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30302, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29900/bitcoin-dominance-630-on-any-day-in-novdec-2024/ crosspost for Brown group" }, { "id": 30301, "title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "short_title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "url_title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "slug": "will-astro-bot-win-the-game-of-the-year-2024-award", "author_id": 212347, "author_username": "g-w1", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T21:06:13.516085Z", "published_at": "2024-11-19T21:06:18.761713Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.093780Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-19T21:06:18.761711Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-13T05:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T05:20:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T21:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 30103, "title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T21:06:13.516420Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T21:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-24T21:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-24T21:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T05:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T05:22:05.433745Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-13T05:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "crosspost of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29902/will-astro-bot-win-the-game-of-the-year-2024-award/ for Brown", "resolution_criteria": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29902/will-astro-bot-win-the-game-of-the-year-2024-award/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30301, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734062601.917729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734062601.917729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.4703707131276663 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -2.3171895819229835, "peer_score": 1.7181256369010798, "coverage": 0.055039681474376496, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9955172998476298, "spot_peer_score": 17.261396881200223, "baseline_archived_score": -2.3171895819229835, "peer_archived_score": 1.7181256369010798, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.261396881200223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "crosspost of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29902/will-astro-bot-win-the-game-of-the-year-2024-award/ for Brown" }, { "id": 30300, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?", "short_title": "ICC Warrant 2024?", "url_title": "ICC Warrant 2024?", "slug": "icc-warrant-2024", "author_id": 212347, "author_username": "g-w1", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T21:04:40.277421Z", "published_at": "2024-11-19T21:05:16.898834Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.058984Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-19T21:05:16.898831Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T23:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T21:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 30102, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T21:04:40.277779Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T21:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-24T21:04:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-24T21:04:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T23:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T23:45:46.604109Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "reference to https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29903/will-the-icc-issue-any-warrants-in-nov-or-dec-2024/, but for the Brown group", "resolution_criteria": "see https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29903/will-the-icc-issue-any-warrants-in-nov-or-dec-2024/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30300, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "reference to https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29903/will-the-icc-issue-any-warrants-in-nov-or-dec-2024/, but for the Brown group" }, { "id": 30297, "title": "Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?", "short_title": "Will Nvidia have the largest market cap at the end of 2024?", "url_title": "Will Nvidia have the largest market cap at the end of 2024?", "slug": "will-nvidia-have-the-largest-market-cap-at-the-end-of-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T15:56:54.581402Z", "published_at": "2024-11-20T19:40:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.813530Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-20T19:40:18Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 118, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32559, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_TqQCKYL.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-12-11T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-03T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-03T20:11:36.362514Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-08T06:50:47.494484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30101, "title": "Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T15:56:54.581809Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-24T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-24T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T22:30:25.598534Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nvidia has seen a meteoric rise in the past two years, with its stock growing more than threefold in 2023, a feat which is looking to repeat in 2024. Nvidia's rise can be [largely attributed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-06/nvidia-s-rise-to-3-trillion-fuels-jensanity-across-tech-world) to the rise of generative AI, as Nvidia [provides](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/02/nvidia-dominates-the-ai-chip-market-but-theres-rising-competition-.html) the vast majority of chips that are used to train these systems. However, in recent weeks, there have been [reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai) that the new LLMs from the leading companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) are not showing the expected improvements.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Nvidia has the largest market cup of any company according to [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) after the close of trading on December 31, 2024.", "fine_print": "- If there are ambiguities regarding Nvidia's ranking, the \"End of year Market Cap\" values will be used from each of the top companies' [individual page](https://companiesmarketcap.com/nvidia/marketcap/).\n- If CompaniesMarketCap is unavailable, admins may wait until 7 January 2025 and then use alternative, credible sources.", "post_id": 30297, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735510901.511961, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.006 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735510901.511961, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005906141261711694 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.21493462411799, 1.6442601480393795, 1.4371078444711642, 0.32479053661608687, 0.0, 0.10569891154990413, 0.0, 0.005805836553457768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030580047396704126, 0.0, 0.012224307168577479, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010784108305004398, 0.0, 0.004260043935447174, 0.0, 0.007064033012232248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003872103651154285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005074231987412313, 0.0, 0.0007857345343876863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01089655293969943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024156522646221978, 0.00036601963165768176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006869491573638977, 0.00524797978376936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027223742919663453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001191416139661783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022111209728182583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002890555814196455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004530981350361459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012497772419926385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 47.357959807529696, "peer_score": 20.6050439925248, "coverage": 0.9999737352860618, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999737352860618, "spot_peer_score": 11.874812395004128, "spot_baseline_score": -83.65012677171204, "baseline_archived_score": 47.357959807529696, "peer_archived_score": 20.6050439925248, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.874812395004128, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -83.65012677171204 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 587, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nvidia has seen a meteoric rise in the past two years, with its stock growing more than threefold in 2023, a feat which is looking to repeat in 2024. Nvidia's rise can be [largely attributed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-06/nvidia-s-rise-to-3-trillion-fuels-jensanity-across-tech-world) to the rise of generative AI, as Nvidia [provides](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/02/nvidia-dominates-the-ai-chip-market-but-theres-rising-competition-.html) the vast majority of chips that are used to train these systems. However, in recent weeks, there have been [reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai) that the new LLMs from the leading companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) are not showing the expected improvements." }, { "id": 30295, "title": "Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?", "short_title": "Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?", "url_title": "Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?", "slug": "will-bluesky-reach-30-million-users-before-1-january-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T15:12:44.587047Z", "published_at": "2024-11-20T19:22:57.488948Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.106801Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-20T19:22:57.488946Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-28T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-28T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 139, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30100, "title": "Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T15:12:44.587421Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-24T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-24T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T22:35:15.192743Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-28T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-28T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bluesky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluesky) is a decentralised social media platform developed by Twitter co-founder [Jack Dorsey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey). It aims to provide users with greater control over their data and the algorithms that curate their feeds. Since its public launch in February 2024, Bluesky has seen significant growth, going from 3 million users before launch to 20 million as of November 19, 2024, 10 million of which joined the platform over the past [two months](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2024/11/18/post-election-x-rival-bluesky-is-adding-millions-of-users/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before 1 January 2025, Bluesky reports at least 30 million users according to [this counter](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats).", "fine_print": "If the counter stops reporting this number or there is reason to believe that the number reported is inaccurate, admins may resolve the question based on credible sources.", "post_id": 30295, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735359844.672343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735359844.672343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.00631866485577641 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.503004226372763, 1.543593888209566, 0.6024480910618426, 0.021363513910541834, 0.4624891248556201, 0.6681768096172142, 0.0068742401723455885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11715997650283697, 0.0005623901265472414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004947403540845617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010425629558802045, 0.010579987263893507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014523731568833438, 0.0003676616875423618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009281367527084389, 0.00012478676181919342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018797137840382663, 5.48582156804221e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010492118491379479, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005695586435799019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014583731104158028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.53835593295572e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.625358952009665e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.685384254941425, "peer_score": 22.13181653664933, "coverage": 0.9964236586060177, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9964236586060177, "spot_peer_score": 62.49282941516496, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": 61.685384254941425, "peer_archived_score": 22.13181653664933, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 62.49282941516496, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 824, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bluesky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluesky) is a decentralised social media platform developed by Twitter co-founder [Jack Dorsey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey). It aims to provide users with greater control over their data and the algorithms that curate their feeds. Since its public launch in February 2024, Bluesky has seen significant growth, going from 3 million users before launch to 20 million as of November 19, 2024, 10 million of which joined the platform over the past [two months](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2024/11/18/post-election-x-rival-bluesky-is-adding-millions-of-users/)." }, { "id": 30294, "title": "Will the US start the process of withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US exit the Paris Agreement again before 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US exit the Paris Agreement again before 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-exit-the-paris-agreement-again-before-2026", "author_id": 210036, "author_username": "sitruk.eli", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:37:25.665419Z", "published_at": "2024-12-09T11:55:27.420582Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.089179Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-09T11:55:27.420580Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-29T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T14:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T15:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-29T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T11:54:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3574, "type": "question_series", "name": "2024 Electoral Consequences", "slug": "us-conditionals", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover_DGFfV9U.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-28T20:19:47Z", "close_date": "2028-12-31T21:19:47Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-28T20:19:47.580589Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T01:22:26.940465Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3574, "type": "question_series", "name": "2024 Electoral Consequences", "slug": "us-conditionals", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover_DGFfV9U.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-28T20:19:47Z", "close_date": "2028-12-31T21:19:47Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-28T20:19:47.580589Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T01:22:26.940465Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30099, "title": "Will the US start the process of withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:37:25.665789Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T11:54:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T11:54:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T11:54:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T15:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-29T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-30T03:08:57.432312Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T14:25:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-29T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Paris Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), adopted in 2015, is a global treaty aimed at combating climate change by limiting global surface temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C. Under the agreement, participating countries establish nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and are required to report their progress periodically. While non-binding in nature, the agreement relies heavily on international cooperation and mutual accountability to achieve its goals.\n\nDuring his first term in 2017, President Donald Trump announced the [United States' withdrawal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Paris_Agreement) from the Paris Agreement. He justified this decision by highlighting concerns about potential economic disadvantages to American industries and workers, arguing that the agreement imposed unfair restrictions on the U.S. while allowing major emitters, such as China and India, to continue higher levels of emissions. The withdrawal became effective on November 4, 2020.\n\nFollowing the 2020 election, President Biden reversed this decision, officially rejoining the agreement on February 19, 2021. However, with President Trump now re-elected, he has reiterated skepticism about international climate agreements and hinted at the possibility of [once again withdrawing](https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/trump-prepares-withdrawing-paris-climate-agreement-nyt-reports-2024-11-08/) the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. Such a withdrawal would require a formal notice of intent, followed by a mandatory one-year waiting period before it becomes effective.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources have reported that the US has given a formal notice of intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.", "fine_print": "- If the US withdraws from the Paris Agreement without a formal notice before January 1, 2026, this question will still resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 30294, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737962640.843273, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737962640.843273, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.83247142851254 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.9966021787620694 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 19.334897371206246, "peer_score": 1.6629264496518823, "coverage": 0.24258094885066184, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9895330289494351, "spot_peer_score": 2.7452385858577206, "spot_baseline_score": 65.99245584023782, "baseline_archived_score": 19.334897371206246, "peer_archived_score": 1.6629264496518823, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.7452385858577206, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 65.99245584023782 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Paris Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), adopted in 2015, is a global treaty aimed at combating climate change by limiting global surface temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C. Under the agreement, participating countries establish nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and are required to report their progress periodically. While non-binding in nature, the agreement relies heavily on international cooperation and mutual accountability to achieve its goals.\n\nDuring his first term in 2017, President Donald Trump announced the [United States' withdrawal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Paris_Agreement) from the Paris Agreement. He justified this decision by highlighting concerns about potential economic disadvantages to American industries and workers, arguing that the agreement imposed unfair restrictions on the U.S. while allowing major emitters, such as China and India, to continue higher levels of emissions. The withdrawal became effective on November 4, 2020.\n\nFollowing the 2020 election, President Biden reversed this decision, officially rejoining the agreement on February 19, 2021. However, with President Trump now re-elected, he has reiterated skepticism about international climate agreements and hinted at the possibility of [once again withdrawing](https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/trump-prepares-withdrawing-paris-climate-agreement-nyt-reports-2024-11-08/) the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. Such a withdrawal would require a formal notice of intent, followed by a mandatory one-year waiting period before it becomes effective." }, { "id": 30286, "title": "Will Astro Bot or Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth win Console Game of the Year in the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-astro-bot-or-final-fantasy-7-rebirth-win-console-game-of-the-year-in-the-2024-golden-joystick-awards", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:58.047142Z", "published_at": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.571860Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-22T00:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", 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Award for Console Game of the Year in the awards ceremony, currently scheduled for November 21, 2024. \n", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30286, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732112430.613954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5171948447730109 ], "centers": [ 0.622 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732112430.613954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5171948447730109 ], "centers": [ 0.622 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.378, 0.622 ], "means": [ 0.5948246544520914 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0528097329533694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.9728914650820865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 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"group_rank": null, "description": "*Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.*\n\n---\n\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\n\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\n\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.", "resolution_criteria": "For this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years. If this does not happen before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30285, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732112525.156358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0155 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06395743095221712 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732112525.156358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0155 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06395743095221712 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.048333305756704525 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5778677609141162, 3.098350825571228, 1.352736120380996, 0.42031229138251813, 0.17472138726266326, 1.097035937829636, 1.4905147146935758, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.3309518216528762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.7510799892294853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.8827790733171, "peer_score": 1.2755689193228599, "coverage": 0.9977011625358352, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9977011625358352, "spot_peer_score": 3.317244938452301, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 93.8827790733171, "peer_archived_score": 1.2755689193228599, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.317244938452301, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.*\n\n---\n\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\n\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\n\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection." }, { "id": 30284, "title": "Will Larry Ellison be ranked in the top 2 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-larry-ellison-be-ranked-in-the-top-2-of-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.979238Z", "published_at": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.598940Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30089, "title": "Will Larry Ellison be ranked in the top 2 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.979238Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T00:59:23.051715Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B. Jeff Bezos was 4th, with 200.9B. Bernard Arnault & family\nwas 5th, with $183.1B. And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Larry Ellison is in 2nd place or better on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "A tie will count as **Yes**. If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). 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And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B." }, { "id": 30283, "title": "Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on December 27, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-active-us-oil-drilling-rigs-be-less-than-585-on-december-27-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.742746Z", "published_at": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.471622Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T15:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30088, "title": "Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on December 27, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.742746Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T15:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-28T15:32:10.073355Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active oil drilling rigs is less than 585 on December 27, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count, which can be accessed at [this](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_rotary_rigs) Ycharts link.", "fine_print": "The link will be accessed by Metaculus Admins on or around December 28, 2024. 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"title": "Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on December 27, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.689202Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T15:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-28T15:33:15.157261Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, 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"title": "Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 3.0M for November 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.577450Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T16:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-10T16:01:54.854072Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, 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Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how.\n\nTrump's recent interactions with key leaders have been notable. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September 2024 at Trump Tower, later describing him as \"the greatest salesman in the world.\" After winning the election, Trump reportedly spoke with both Zelenskyy (in a call that included Elon Musk discussing continued Starlink support) and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the Kremlin has denied that the Putin call took place, calling reports from The Washington Post \"pure fiction.\"\n\nMultiple peace proposals are reportedly under consideration by Trump's team, including a potential 800-mile demilitarized zone. Some NATO members, like Slovakia, have begun openly questioning continued military support for Ukraine, while others remain committed. Meanwhile, Russia faces mounting demographic pressures from military losses exceeding 710,000 troops and a severe birth rate crisis.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if an armistice or a ceasefire is announced by both Ukraine and Russia before January 1, 2025. This will count if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. The ceasefire or armistice must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\nThe specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this question. 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Andrea Bocelli, the renowned Italian tenor, [is scheduled](https://www.andreabocelli.com/?post_type=tour) to perform at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 18 and 19, 2024. These performances are part of his annual Christmas tour, which typically features holiday classics alongside selections from his albums \"A Family Christmas\" and \"Believe\". Historically, Bocelli's concerts have attracted large audiences, [occasionally](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/music/1949661/andrea-bocelli-tickets-uk-tour-2025) leading to sold-out shows.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024, is officially declared sold out by the venue or the primary ticketing platform, Ticketmaster, before the respective performance date.", "fine_print": "- A concert is considered \"sold out\" when no tickets are available for purchase through official channels. Secondary market availability (resale platforms) will not impact the resolution of this question.\n- Admins may resolve this question based on either reports from credible sources or by checking the availability of the tickets on Ticketmaster.\n- This question will resolve as **Yes** based on the first reports that a performance has been sold out. If extra seats are added after a performance is reported as being sold out, the question will still resolve as **Yes**.\n- If both of the performances are canceled or rescheduled, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 30252, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734522705.530487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734522705.530487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5302684361429798 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09022908093720004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.882493535772869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37113480134217347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20566286060455888, 0.0, 0.19030380486090423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5604905061740477, 0.0, 0.0, 1.599042151818543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17592413500841017, 1.2529543656745905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002949293081317581, 0.5576418855024077, 0.8284076835897499, 0.0, 0.4066000392309813, 0.6831013776873005, 0.7785350193188251, 0.39818867837781474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45859551750172006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.457422476445143, 0.42022652132926797, 0.25819147560843936, 0.0, 0.80518261901127, 1.1791870591298463, 0.9979299509752331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051651386754525144, 0.0, 0.07843168604693199, 0.0, 0.13813894976991253, 0.0, 0.015157278973843901, 0.3111652136642349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04228688608058346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.064943841226617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011600507024289436, 0.2817083346647279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07459731030799356 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -284.72745211927696, "peer_score": 67.16208406949261, "coverage": 0.9998503094914134, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998503094914134, "spot_peer_score": 11.006581957879073, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873626, "baseline_archived_score": -284.72745211927696, "peer_archived_score": 67.16208406949261, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.006581957879073, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873626 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 409, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Andrea Bocelli, the renowned Italian tenor, [is scheduled](https://www.andreabocelli.com/?post_type=tour) to perform at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 18 and 19, 2024. These performances are part of his annual Christmas tour, which typically features holiday classics alongside selections from his albums \"A Family Christmas\" and \"Believe\". Historically, Bocelli's concerts have attracted large audiences, [occasionally](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/music/1949661/andrea-bocelli-tickets-uk-tour-2025) leading to sold-out shows." } ] }
