Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1660
{ "count": 6323, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1680", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1640", "results": [ { "id": 34242, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:49.811375Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.234931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:44:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33739, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:49.811375Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T11:48:25.544744Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.53, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on November 8, 2024 and September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.\n", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before the resolution date, as long as the announcement is made before then.", "post_id": 34242, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738018792.899448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738018792.899448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3040547527725028 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 1.0278039913470645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.230887815716027, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.4998325749597323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2443529698557632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8075193842755515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 47.05910982632452, "peer_score": 11.599905931204185, "coverage": 0.9664872508578831, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9664872508578831, "spot_peer_score": 7.137743898665456, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 47.05910982632452, "peer_archived_score": 11.599905931204185, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.137743898665456, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on November 8, 2024 and September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. " }, { "id": 34241, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before February 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-before-february-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:49.770687Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.771808Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-11T03:32:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33738, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before February 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:49.770687Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-11T03:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-11T03:34:48.672778Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.53, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on November 8, 2024 and September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the launch of this question and before February 1, 2024 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.\nThe primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the Federal Reserve's official minutes and statements[here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the Federal Reserve's website is unavailable or not timely updated..", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before the resolution date, as long as the announcement is made before then.", "post_id": 34241, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738018780.906563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.057999999999999996 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738018780.906563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.057999999999999996 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.20426492620768322 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06987644194532422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 2.1232242405145976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.261185949008575, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6894322378104971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7118165837590469 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 84.67032846667065, "peer_score": 13.780614302294117, "coverage": 0.9721016547414993, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9721016547414993, "spot_peer_score": 24.08354448749365, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 84.67032846667065, "peer_archived_score": 13.780614302294117, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.08354448749365, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on November 8, 2024 and September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. " }, { "id": 31884, "title": "Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?", "short_title": "Will Brazil's unemployment be below 6.2% in February 2025?", "url_title": "Will Brazil's unemployment be below 6.2% in February 2025?", "slug": "will-brazils-unemployment-be-below-62-in-february-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T00:35:52.180959Z", "published_at": "2025-02-10T14:02:58.433400Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.617341Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-10T14:02:58.433398Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T20:04:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 552, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "š¼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31382, "title": "Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T00:35:52.181433Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-13T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T20:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-28T20:19:19.055125Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nAccording to the [Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e EstatĆstica](https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/highlights/24141-technical-note-on-the-continuous-pnad.html) (IBGE), \n\n> The IBGEĀ“s Continuous National Household Sample Survey - Continuous PNAD investigates the conditions of the labor market in Brazil based on a sample with more than 210 thousand households, distributed along nearly 3,500 municipalities. On a quarterly basis, this sample is visited by nearly 2 thousand survey agents. The Continuous PNAD raises information on the workers in Brazil, including those without a formal contract.\n\nFor the three months ended November 2024, average unemployment fell to 6.1% in Brazil, the [lowest](https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-news/2184-news-agency/news/42334-unemployment-drops-to-6-1-in-the-quarter-ended-november-lowest-rate-in-the-time-series) in the over two decades since the Continuous PNAD began: \n\n<iframe src=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=bzuetotn&v=202412271219V20230410&h=300&w=600&ref=/brazil/unemployment-rate&type=spline&d1=2012-03-01&d2=2024-12-01\" height=\"300\" width=\"600\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" /> Ā \nBrazil's economy has been on a tear, with real GDP growth of 5.9% annualized in Q1 and Q2 2024, and 4% for Q3 as of November 2024, massively outperforming forecasts of 1.6% made for the country in January 2024, [according to Deloitte](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/americas/brazil-economic-outlook.html). This has been driven by strong consumer spending driving strong [retail sales growth](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/brazil/retail-sales-growth) and [business investment](https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-investment-climate-statements/brazil/). In the trailing twelve months, Brazil's unemployment rate has been as follows:\n\n Ā \n<iframe src=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=bzuetotn&v=202412271219V20230410&h=300&w=600&ref=/brazil/unemployment-rate&type=column&d1=2023-12-01&d2=2024-12-01\" height=\"300\" width=\"600\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" /> Ā \nBrazil's economy and its outlook are not without their challenges, however. In December 2024, Brazil's current account deficit [widened](https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202501240710RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_L2N3OK0F0_1), with imports growing 8.8% and exports shrinking 1.2%. Additionally, [according to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-jobless-rate-hits-fresh-all-time-low-job-creation-slows-2024-12-27/), even as the unemployment rate hits fresh historical lows, there are signs the labor market is cooling. Inflation has been elevated, [triggering](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-inflation-slowdown-falls-short-131722984.html) interest rate increases from Brazil's central bank. Additionally, economists [are projecting](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazils-jobless-rate-hits-record-low-of-6-1-in-october-2024/) an uptrend in unemployment in 2025, though with unemployment still remaining below long-term historical averages. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the unemployment rateĀ in Brazil for people aged 14 and over (*Taxa de desocupaĆ§Ć£o, na semana de referĆŖncia, das pessoas de 14 anos ou mais de idade*) in the three months ended February 2025 is less than 6.2%, as reported by the [Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e EstatĆstica](https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/social/labor/16833-monthly-dissemination-pnadc1.html?=\\&t=destaques). If the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 6.2%, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* This question resolves based on the figures first reported by IBGE for the three-month average of December 2024, January 2025, and February 2025 that includes all three months. Later revisions will not cause this question to be re-resolved.\n* If the required data is not available before 3 PM Eastern Time on March 31, 2025, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 31884, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740804850.717726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 549, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740804850.717726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 549, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04600920426534545 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.003006494644763, 6.429765060341532, 7.274156674818991, 4.9227489364196995, 3.1747545659938377, 3.1359033899931434, 2.752328200153624, 0.20104863798168132, 0.774404027855375, 0.0028831402462372565, 0.9716630324797084, 0.002095275332537441, 0.2535171231972856, 7.910398366376731e-07, 3.425852577780378e-07, 0.35013137452540316, 0.004714785774968588, 5.2288386597225915e-06, 0.0004621113477542058, 1.4268170268088408e-06, 0.7863523872341003, 0.0, 5.405119841784112e-07, 2.1816034455771747e-06, 0.0, 5.604767933510636e-05, 4.928831305383811e-10, 0.005615961514647631, 1.2676706195504473e-07, 0.0, 0.13446343164693117, 0.0, 0.0, 3.571536200355239e-05, 7.947516952723533e-07, 1.2288682616613461e-06, 0.0, 4.29782021890042e-06, 0.0, 5.884146493526734e-08, 0.0323647007881096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05705239479003132, 0.0, 0.07996199994039907, 0.0, 3.770292971785068e-10, 8.948592835061526e-09, 0.18173849483777996, 4.699096426413446e-08, 0.0, 0.07441614397873472, 0.0, 0.020528979090776403, 0.006613457076171877, 3.1526276023449433e-07, 0.047166120791941116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10633845636345356, 4.352160613900698e-08, 0.0, 0.027839049748934436, 0.0, 1.7466437320316877e-08, 1.2631635547818315e-06, 0.015065243156353951, 3.6496462422271024e-08, 9.034352603250279e-08, 0.10143776144636744, 0.0, 0.0004913123362027204, 6.241183823675589e-10, 1.5758494644534504e-09, 0.19803323634794212, 4.027138014887226e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3175562498872534e-06, 9.985527733072875e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003218168034336172, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8808283588413168e-06, 6.036233365186593e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04358834008880934, 0.0, 0.0012713265278943855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18601210227658696 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 86.7761459597898, "peer_score": 32.10454666587113, "coverage": 0.9999003787188769, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999003787188769, "spot_peer_score": 49.33027077386765, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 86.7761459597898, "peer_archived_score": 32.10454666587113, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 49.33027077386765, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1360, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nAccording to the [Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e EstatĆstica](https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/highlights/24141-technical-note-on-the-continuous-pnad.html) (IBGE), \n\n> The IBGEĀ“s Continuous National Household Sample Survey - Continuous PNAD investigates the conditions of the labor market in Brazil based on a sample with more than 210 thousand households, distributed along nearly 3,500 municipalities. On a quarterly basis, this sample is visited by nearly 2 thousand survey agents. The Continuous PNAD raises information on the workers in Brazil, including those without a formal contract.\n\nFor the three months ended November 2024, average unemployment fell to 6.1% in Brazil, the [lowest](https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-news/2184-news-agency/news/42334-unemployment-drops-to-6-1-in-the-quarter-ended-november-lowest-rate-in-the-time-series) in the over two decades since the Continuous PNAD began: \n\n<iframe src=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=bzuetotn&v=202412271219V20230410&h=300&w=600&ref=/brazil/unemployment-rate&type=spline&d1=2012-03-01&d2=2024-12-01\" height=\"300\" width=\"600\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" /> Ā \nBrazil's economy has been on a tear, with real GDP growth of 5.9% annualized in Q1 and Q2 2024, and 4% for Q3 as of November 2024, massively outperforming forecasts of 1.6% made for the country in January 2024, [according to Deloitte](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/americas/brazil-economic-outlook.html). This has been driven by strong consumer spending driving strong [retail sales growth](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/brazil/retail-sales-growth) and [business investment](https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-investment-climate-statements/brazil/). In the trailing twelve months, Brazil's unemployment rate has been as follows:\n\n Ā \n<iframe src=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=bzuetotn&v=202412271219V20230410&h=300&w=600&ref=/brazil/unemployment-rate&type=column&d1=2023-12-01&d2=2024-12-01\" height=\"300\" width=\"600\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" /> Ā \nBrazil's economy and its outlook are not without their challenges, however. In December 2024, Brazil's current account deficit [widened](https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202501240710RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_L2N3OK0F0_1), with imports growing 8.8% and exports shrinking 1.2%. Additionally, [according to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-jobless-rate-hits-fresh-all-time-low-job-creation-slows-2024-12-27/), even as the unemployment rate hits fresh historical lows, there are signs the labor market is cooling. Inflation has been elevated, [triggering](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-inflation-slowdown-falls-short-131722984.html) interest rate increases from Brazil's central bank. Additionally, economists [are projecting](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazils-jobless-rate-hits-record-low-of-6-1-in-october-2024/) an uptrend in unemployment in 2025, though with unemployment still remaining below long-term historical averages. " }, { "id": 31836, "title": "Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?", "short_title": "Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?", "url_title": "Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?", "slug": "will-any-top-us-official-visit-greenland-in-2025", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-23T03:22:00.482741Z", "published_at": "2025-02-11T18:48:29.919151Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.284822Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-11T18:48:29.919149Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-28T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T18:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "šļø", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "š", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31356, "title": "Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-23T03:22:00.483076Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T18:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-18T18:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-18T18:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-29T01:08:51.302210Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-28T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[In 1946, the United States government under Harry Truman offered to buy Greenland from Denmark for \\$100 million](https://apnews.com/article/9d4a8021c3650800fdf6dd5903f68972). In 2019 US president Donald Trump said his administration was [looking into making another offer](https://www.npr.org/2019/08/19/752274659/no-joke-trump-really-does-want-to-buy-greenland). In 2024, US president-elect Donald Trump again suggested the US government would try to purchase the world's largest island. [On January 7, 2025, Donald Trump, Jr. visited Greenland](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/06/europe/trump-greenland-visit-denmark-intl-latam/index.html). The Danish government has repeatedly said that Greenland is not for sale.\n\nA visit by a top US government official may indicate the seriousness of the Trump administration's intentions to purchase the island.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves `Yes` if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the then-current holder of any of the following United States government positions has visited Greenland between February 15, 2025 and December 31, 2025 (dates inclusive):\n\n* President\n* Vice President\n* Speaker of the House\n* Secretary of State\n* Secretary of Defense\n* US Ambassador to Denmark\n\nIf none of the above officeholders is confirmed to have visited Greenland, according to public information, during the specified time period, the question resolves `No`.", "fine_print": "Only visits that are confirmed by credible sources as of the Resolution Date count. If a visit occurs in secret and is known only after the Resolution Date, that visit will not count toward positive resolution.", "post_id": 31836, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743111937.288986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743111937.288986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8578143360848465 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7191051364770336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 1.206986644946858 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -0.8050049963589461, "peer_score": 2.279984246292687, "coverage": 0.1288321950878507, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9936340571128538, "spot_peer_score": 27.142479676402207, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -0.8050049963589461, "peer_archived_score": 2.279984246292687, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.142479676402207, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[In 1946, the United States government under Harry Truman offered to buy Greenland from Denmark for \\$100 million](https://apnews.com/article/9d4a8021c3650800fdf6dd5903f68972). In 2019 US president Donald Trump said his administration was [looking into making another offer](https://www.npr.org/2019/08/19/752274659/no-joke-trump-really-does-want-to-buy-greenland). In 2024, US president-elect Donald Trump again suggested the US government would try to purchase the world's largest island. [On January 7, 2025, Donald Trump, Jr. visited Greenland](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/06/europe/trump-greenland-visit-denmark-intl-latam/index.html). The Danish government has repeatedly said that Greenland is not for sale.\n\nA visit by a top US government official may indicate the seriousness of the Trump administration's intentions to purchase the island." }, { "id": 31831, "title": "Will the winner of the rugby Menās 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?", "short_title": "2025 Rugby Six Nations Championship Won by 5 or More Points?", "url_title": "2025 Rugby Six Nations Championship Won by 5 or More Points?", "slug": "2025-rugby-six-nations-championship-won-by-5-or-more-points", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-22T18:17:41.294682Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T23:45:00.016960Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.345687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-30T23:45:00.016958Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T02:12:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 719, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "š", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31351, "title": "Will the winner of the rugby Menās 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?", "created_at": "2025-01-22T18:17:41.295056Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-17T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-17T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T02:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-17T02:13:34.187465Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-14T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe [<u>Six Nations Championship</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Nations_Championship) is a long-running annual rugby competition between international competitors. Established in 1883 as the Home Nations Championship, between the four nations of the United Kingdom, its current iteration is between the teams of England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, and Wales.\n\nEach Championship consists of 15 matches, with each team playing the other five once. The Championship winner is determined by a [<u>points system</u>](https://www.sixnationsrugby.com/en/m6n/championship-rules) that includes Match Points, with some Match Points typically referred to as Bonus Points. If a team wins a match, they receive four Match Points. Draws result in two Match Points for each team. A single Bonus Point can be earned for each match by scoring four or more tries during the match. If a team loses a match a Bonus Point can be earned for that match by losing by seven points or fewer.\n\nWinning all five matches is called a āGrand Slamā and earns a team an additional three Bonus Points, giving it a minimum score of 23 points. This ensures that winning a Grand Slam wins the competition, even if another team wins four of their games and maxes out their bonus points.\n\nThe [<u>2025 Six Nations Championship</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Six_Nations_Championship) is scheduled to be held from January 31, 2025, through March 15, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of the rugby Menās 2025 Six Nations Championship beats the team finishing second by 5 or more total competition points, according to reports of the final results published by [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). Total competition points include Match Points and Bonus Points.", "fine_print": "* In the event of delays or postponements that result in the final competition score not being available before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 31831, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741988318.017742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 713, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741988318.017742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 713, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011185319803938686 ], "histogram": [ [ 43.96845164798289, 4.684793395534162, 1.219592857354632, 0.5614580608603259, 0.01453645182485772, 0.15230100112935063, 0.005808714630233937, 0.29911061002942957, 0.0037007673633832065, 6.485622011343119e-05, 0.08042251089632509, 0.16492562741107003, 4.112292311887912e-08, 0.0, 0.0053482009679055075, 0.002994865365631338, 0.0, 0.0003292249093627429, 7.289759470860324e-05, 5.723606674610448e-05, 0.015203434917626091, 0.16164556089699397, 0.0007190940855522031, 4.657876697237217e-06, 2.6537021517301402e-05, 0.00038814543645601803, 0.00021925306405015581, 2.8150663851023324e-07, 0.0009827616054238614, 0.0, 0.0008909173999251338, 0.0002666738359482555, 2.120458649338986e-06, 0.0003032908539152109, 4.563024393663076e-05, 3.457442784292697e-05, 0.0011721676010268964, 0.0010485579692436093, 5.713505839776495e-06, 0.22695140216072274, 0.0029390806522514024, 0.0002877608808161213, 6.299351274090163e-05, 7.583839554224168e-05, 0.0, 0.00013040716212619235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001060120276414947, 0.000963048663228484, 0.0008905262660044955, 0.00020451958588645256, 0.00024513232822293755, 4.827468757971642e-05, 0.0024456976116243733, 0.0015726141903757256, 0.004361241459415509, 0.003155470645753639, 0.0, 0.0034405373353384146, 0.01378426868080867, 0.007585572444209012, 0.0044606022170411075, 0.0032310538044547747, 0.0012781090848390814, 0.002343970198942886, 0.0024198837540320615, 0.0008629298630705929, 0.00013684398243088967, 1.5986053216273245e-05, 0.003832470945168939, 0.07441352136056135, 0.0022549956285937136, 4.2874870507827265e-06, 8.926463067214696e-05, 0.18006895404596296, 8.841987363001414e-05, 9.68577817572502e-07, 1.1077406808524983e-07, 1.1139632593330918e-05, 0.0014126652159353005, 0.0015100071529224515, 9.35013274156669e-06, 4.808008701982792e-06, 0.00011542752004177178, 0.0014121389372244455, 0.001426376215531529, 0.0, 0.00017642949672954763, 0.0, 0.0003581874900233168, 0.001640282905932207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.972790488356005e-05, 0.0006853560959392359, 2.2911513805074433e-08, 0.0, 0.005157081510966058 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -5.411233479509738, "peer_score": 39.34181999720488, "coverage": 0.9996749711002232, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996749711002232, "spot_peer_score": 44.45975960472032, "spot_baseline_score": -2.914634565951651, "baseline_archived_score": -5.411233479509738, "peer_archived_score": 39.34181999720488, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.45975960472032, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -2.914634565951651 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2249, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe [<u>Six Nations Championship</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Nations_Championship) is a long-running annual rugby competition between international competitors. Established in 1883 as the Home Nations Championship, between the four nations of the United Kingdom, its current iteration is between the teams of England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, and Wales.\n\nEach Championship consists of 15 matches, with each team playing the other five once. The Championship winner is determined by a [<u>points system</u>](https://www.sixnationsrugby.com/en/m6n/championship-rules) that includes Match Points, with some Match Points typically referred to as Bonus Points. If a team wins a match, they receive four Match Points. Draws result in two Match Points for each team. A single Bonus Point can be earned for each match by scoring four or more tries during the match. If a team loses a match a Bonus Point can be earned for that match by losing by seven points or fewer.\n\nWinning all five matches is called a āGrand Slamā and earns a team an additional three Bonus Points, giving it a minimum score of 23 points. This ensures that winning a Grand Slam wins the competition, even if another team wins four of their games and maxes out their bonus points.\n\nThe [<u>2025 Six Nations Championship</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Six_Nations_Championship) is scheduled to be held from January 31, 2025, through March 15, 2025." }, { "id": 31821, "title": "Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before May 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire by May 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire by May 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-russia-and-ukraine-announce-a-ceasefire-by-may-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-22T01:34:16.440839Z", "published_at": "2025-02-01T00:45:14.883809Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.610051Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-01T00:45:14.883807Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T23:19:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-04T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32634, "name": "Flagler College Spring 2025", "type": "community", "slug": "sellers", "description": "This is a forecasting space for Spring 2025 students of Professor Bailey Sellers, POS 332: Political Science Scopes & Methods.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_5VpDCmc.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_pic_CfiDMUz.png", "followers_count": 16, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true, "metadata": { "pro_details": { "pro_end_date": null, "is_current_pro": true, "pro_start_date": "9/3/2022" } } } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32634, "name": "Flagler College Spring 2025", "type": "community", "slug": "sellers", "description": "This is a forecasting space for Spring 2025 students of Professor Bailey Sellers, POS 332: Political Science Scopes & Methods.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_5VpDCmc.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_pic_CfiDMUz.png", "followers_count": 16, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true, "metadata": { "pro_details": { "pro_end_date": null, "is_current_pro": true, "pro_start_date": "9/3/2022" } } } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "š", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31347, "title": "Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before May 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-22T01:34:16.441266Z", "open_time": "2025-02-04T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-09T00:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-09T00:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T23:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-01T23:38:26.747202Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5099161-trump-sanctions-russia-ukraine/) on January 21, 2025:\n\n> President Trump said Tuesday it was likely he would impose additional sanctions on Russia if it did not come to the negotiating table to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine.\n\n> āSounds likely,ā Trump said of potential sanctions on Moscow.\n\n> Trump has called for aĀ [ceasefire in Ukraine](https://thehill.com/policy/international/5098017-trump-putin-ukraine-russia-war/), urging both sides to negotiate. Russian forces invaded Ukraine in early 2022, and both sides have sustained heavy losses in the nearly three years of fighting.\n\nSee also: [Peace negotiations in the Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before May 1, 2025. The ceasefire agreement must have an intended duration that is either indefinite or greater than 21 days. ", "fine_print": "Both sides must announce a ceasefire. Cessation of fighting by itself will not count. \n\nThis question resolves based on an announcement. Other factors such as compliance with the ceasefire or the date a ceasefire takes effect will not affect resolution. \n\nIn order to count, a ceasefire must apply to a majority of combatants on each of the Russian and Ukrainian sides.", "post_id": 31821, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745856437.033781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745856437.033781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.13915759777704853 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2718482104294435, 2.491404727851486, 0.0, 0.6222927254089794, 0.29740843929828004, 3.418311191327292, 0.0, 0.21588475063544757, 0.43455049684738395, 1.4672690605252767, 0.3888426110062623, 0.3743651858727827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4676110092672276, 0.09493516851667833, 0.0, 0.10746304061856489, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1259253472998636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16243366463019449, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04387033764028439, 0.0, 0.40350388084437705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07002178140701876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01822907903177938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03850858165784335, 0.0, 0.04816139989060515, 0.0027844015881518533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.167827063947821, 0.22002352714673556, 0.0, 0.006942996711877092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12899150325450517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25391007566435586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08895535332445731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03041962011451429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27493576634473277 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 69.41710183725546, "peer_score": 32.696256572472336, "coverage": 0.9958451650489262, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9958451650489262, "spot_peer_score": 18.86471155707337, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 69.41710183725546, "peer_archived_score": 32.696256572472336, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.86471155707337, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5099161-trump-sanctions-russia-ukraine/) on January 21, 2025:\n\n> President Trump said Tuesday it was likely he would impose additional sanctions on Russia if it did not come to the negotiating table to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine.\n\n> āSounds likely,ā Trump said of potential sanctions on Moscow.\n\n> Trump has called for aĀ [ceasefire in Ukraine](https://thehill.com/policy/international/5098017-trump-putin-ukraine-russia-war/), urging both sides to negotiate. Russian forces invaded Ukraine in early 2022, and both sides have sustained heavy losses in the nearly three years of fighting.\n\nSee also: [Peace negotiations in the Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine)" }, { "id": 31816, "title": "Will the Global Protest Tracker report a protest in any of these areas before May 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Global Protest Tracker reports any of these by May 1 2025?", "url_title": "Global Protest Tracker reports any of these by May 1 2025?", "slug": "global-protest-tracker-reports-any-of-these-by-may-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-21T21:38:21.044081Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T21:48:35.114362Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.719698Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-27T21:48:35.114360Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T00:34:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-05T05:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32634, "name": "Flagler College Spring 2025", "type": "community", "slug": "sellers", "description": "This is a forecasting space for Spring 2025 students of Professor Bailey Sellers, POS 332: Political Science Scopes & Methods.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_5VpDCmc.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_pic_CfiDMUz.png", "followers_count": 16, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true, "metadata": { "pro_details": { "pro_end_date": null, "is_current_pro": true, "pro_start_date": "9/3/2022" } } } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32634, "name": "Flagler College Spring 2025", "type": "community", "slug": "sellers", "description": "This is a forecasting space for Spring 2025 students of Professor Bailey Sellers, POS 332: Political Science Scopes & Methods.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_5VpDCmc.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/flagler_pic_CfiDMUz.png", "followers_count": 16, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": true, "metadata": { "pro_details": { "pro_end_date": null, "is_current_pro": true, "pro_start_date": "9/3/2022" } } } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "š", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31340, "title": "Will the Global Protest Tracker report a protest in any of these areas before May 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-21T21:38:21.044527Z", "open_time": "2025-02-05T05:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-10T21:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-10T21:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T00:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-02T00:42:17.305276Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-30T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Carnegie Endowment: \n\nUse Carnegieās Global Protest Tracker to analyze and compare the triggers, motivations, and other aspects of many of the most significant antigovernment protests since 2017. Designed for researchers, decisionmakers, and journalists, this comprehensive resource helps illustrate how protests impact todayās global politics.\n\nThe most recent protests tracked by the Global Protest Tracker in the countries listed have been: \n\n* Belarus [antiwar protests](https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-referendum-constitutional-changes-lukashenka/31726363.html) February 2022.\n* Cuba [food and power shortages protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2024_Cuban_protests) March 2024.\n* Gaza Strip [anti-Hamas protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gaza_economic_protests) July 2023.\n* Myanmar [Airbus protests](https://www.rfa.org/english/myanmar/2024/10/30/myanmar-protest-airbus-airstrikes/) October 2024.\n* Russia [power cut protest](https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-krasnodar-protest-electricity-blackout-power/33044165.html) July 2024\n* Venezuela [presidential election protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_protests) July 2024", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Carnegie Endowment's [Global Protest Tracker](https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en) reports a protest in one or more of the following places after the launch of this question and before May 1, 2025:\n\n* Belarus\n* Cuba\n* Gaza Strip\n* Myanmar\n* Russia\n* Venezuela", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31816, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742799663.446805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.686 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742799663.446805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.686 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7772942808308781 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0731744161072838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.5402965138243555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.13444868060126633, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5825890001256337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6650402975923998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -99.07464099954112, "peer_score": 45.262384266649896, "coverage": 0.9778208510246889, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9778208510246889, "spot_peer_score": 11.494682876390987, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": -99.07464099954112, "peer_archived_score": 45.262384266649896, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.494682876390987, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Carnegie Endowment: \n\nUse Carnegieās Global Protest Tracker to analyze and compare the triggers, motivations, and other aspects of many of the most significant antigovernment protests since 2017. Designed for researchers, decisionmakers, and journalists, this comprehensive resource helps illustrate how protests impact todayās global politics.\n\nThe most recent protests tracked by the Global Protest Tracker in the countries listed have been: \n\n* Belarus [antiwar protests](https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-referendum-constitutional-changes-lukashenka/31726363.html) February 2022.\n* Cuba [food and power shortages protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2024_Cuban_protests) March 2024.\n* Gaza Strip [anti-Hamas protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gaza_economic_protests) July 2023.\n* Myanmar [Airbus protests](https://www.rfa.org/english/myanmar/2024/10/30/myanmar-protest-airbus-airstrikes/) October 2024.\n* Russia [power cut protest](https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-krasnodar-protest-electricity-blackout-power/33044165.html) July 2024\n* Venezuela [presidential election protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_protests) July 2024" }, { "id": 31814, "title": "At the end of March 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as \"currently\" blocking access to Twitter/X?", "short_title": "Will Wiki still list all as \"currently\" blocking X?", "url_title": "Will Wiki still list all as \"currently\" blocking X?", "slug": "will-wiki-still-list-all-as-currently-blocking-x", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-21T14:24:54.440961Z", "published_at": "2025-01-21T13:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.946255Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:38:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-21T13:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31338, "title": "At the end of March 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as \"currently\" blocking access to Twitter/X?", "created_at": "2025-01-21T14:24:54.440961Z", "open_time": "2025-01-21T13:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T18:38:56.404192Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists Twitter (also known as X) as currently blocked in China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or around April 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list Twitter/X as currently being blocked in any of those countries, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to April 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome.", "post_id": 31814, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737723165.801944, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.886 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737723165.801944, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.886 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.11399999999999999, 0.886 ], "means": [ 0.8787251978604392 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2064362578314156, 0.0, 1.2462571355730265, 0.17411067864873367, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3543173890644741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 21.866913661226036, "peer_score": 1.294772560960947, "coverage": 0.9001504135467507, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9001504135467507, "spot_peer_score": -1.0400220631131607, "spot_baseline_score": 82.53786038929313, "baseline_archived_score": 21.866913661226036, "peer_archived_score": 1.294772560960947, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.0400220631131607, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 82.53786038929313 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"" }, { "id": 31810, "title": "At the end of March 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as \"currently\" blocking access to Twitter/X?", "short_title": "Will Wiki still list all as \"currently\" blocking X?", "url_title": "Will Wiki still list all as \"currently\" blocking X?", "slug": "will-wiki-still-list-all-as-currently-blocking-x", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-21T14:23:32.036276Z", "published_at": "2025-01-24T13:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.911762Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:39:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-24T13:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31334, "title": "At the end of March 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as \"currently\" blocking access to Twitter/X?", "created_at": "2025-01-21T14:23:32.036276Z", "open_time": "2025-01-24T13:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T18:39:34.358552Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-24T14:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists Twitter (also known as X) as currently blocked in China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or around April 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list Twitter/X as currently being blocked in any of those countries, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to April 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome.", "post_id": 31810, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737727745.595652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737727745.595652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7776545665901634 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3182650263612303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9564687556330993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7327519011836716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.7234704561894825, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.19523450305981643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.28027031937045, "peer_score": -0.4159561422854422, "coverage": 0.8600547802448272, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8600547802448272, "spot_peer_score": -0.7109212275939564, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 61.28027031937045, "peer_archived_score": -0.4159561422854422, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7109212275939564, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"" }, { "id": 31794, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up in January 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-sp-500-index-go-up-in-january-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-21T13:56:24.614038Z", "published_at": "2025-01-23T22:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.504576Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 74, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-23T23:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-23T23:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-11T03:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-23T22:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31318, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up in January 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-21T13:56:24.614038Z", "open_time": "2025-01-23T22:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-23T23:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-23T23:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-11T03:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-11T03:23:10.832796Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-23T23:23:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-23T23:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [Bogleheads investment resource site](https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/S%26P_500_index): \"The S&P 500 index is a market weighted index of 500 U.S. stocks, selected and monitored by Standard and Poors. The index dates back to 1923, when Standard and Poors introduced an index containing 233 companies. The index of 500 stocks was introduced in 1957. The S&P 500 index measures returns of the large cap segment of the U.S. stock market. As of 2020 it comprises about 80% of the U.S. market capitalization of stocks.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the final trading day of January 2025 is higher than that of the final trading day of December 2024.", "fine_print": "The \"close\" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.", "post_id": 31794, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737674102.688202, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.636 ], "centers": [ 0.7075 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737674102.688202, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.636 ], "centers": [ 0.7075 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.2925, 0.7075 ], "means": [ 0.6908949663326733 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9227327919449562, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.0, 0.12369064840410346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5018219694898343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4115069876876143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6858104013661508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 44.6255118717943, "peer_score": 4.986747246049619, "coverage": 0.8790454528066847, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8790454528066847, "spot_peer_score": 3.925178562326084, "spot_baseline_score": 50.080205305715765, "baseline_archived_score": 44.6255118717943, "peer_archived_score": 4.986747246049619, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.925178562326084, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 50.080205305715765 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [Bogleheads investment resource site](https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/S%26P_500_index): \"The S&P 500 index is a market weighted index of 500 U.S. stocks, selected and monitored by Standard and Poors. The index dates back to 1923, when Standard and Poors introduced an index containing 233 companies. The index of 500 stocks was introduced in 1957. The S&P 500 index measures returns of the large cap segment of the U.S. stock market. As of 2020 it comprises about 80% of the U.S. market capitalization of stocks.\"" }, { "id": 31771, "title": "Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?", "short_title": "TikTok available for download in the US before Apr 5, 2025?", "url_title": "TikTok available for download in the US before Apr 5, 2025?", "slug": "tiktok-available-for-download-in-the-us-before-apr-5-2025", "author_id": 242075, "author_username": "guffia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-19T14:53:44.485670Z", "published_at": "2025-01-24T18:35:58.817644Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.515732Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-24T18:35:58.817642Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T00:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-05T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-14T00:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "š¼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "š", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "š Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup š", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "š Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup š", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31302, "title": "Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-19T14:53:44.486093Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-30T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-05T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-14T00:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-14T03:22:17.457699Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T00:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States Congress [passed a law](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-tiktok-being-banned-supreme-court-congress/) that bans TikTok from the US starting January 20, 2025, but President Trump [issued an executive order](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-executive-order-trump-0bbae2d2d6f102944f41bb75ad40ce69) delaying the implementation of the ban for 75 days. has claimed that he will overturn the ban. The question is whether or not he will be successful in doing so over the first few months of his presidency.\n\nSee also from Forbes: [When Will TikTok Be Back In App Stores? What Could Happen Without Updates](https://www.forbes.com/sites/monicamercuri/2025/01/22/when-will-tiktok-be-back-in-app-stores-what-could-happen-without-updates/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point after January 25, 2025 and before April 5, 2025, TikTok is available for download in the US from both the App Store and Google Play without the use of VPNs or other technical workarounds.", "fine_print": "* If the app is simultaneously available for any amount of time from both locations and then becomes unavailable again, this question will still resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 31771, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739502917.798973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739502917.798973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6432167389294744 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.10474330423176159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24643098071767555, 0.0, 8.780989364669577e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052198277224234445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011779943533372503, 0.1477921671990804, 0.0, 7.09341805741482e-05, 4.28512682904026e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030708915492302515, 0.0028123176771588064, 1.4960581790068042, 0.0, 0.07246332315522436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004577044086754584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019924238994422132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017910318559305797, 0.9130192311132204, 0.4809472323689227, 0.0, 0.4749883006960818, 0.057630086050086585, 1.6859195590546874, 0.642943082945944, 0.6211904113182519, 0.16745122519511862, 0.0, 0.36837091271438355, 0.0021701220406957554, 0.5436300954273587, 0.001242280334280596, 0.0, 0.6502203064543713, 0.7531087956788163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.712771075712915, 0.0, 0.013346621940314793, 0.12963508971432688, 0.01538975860118121, 0.22231629648602017, 0.8073570884778424, 0.18771289180408146, 0.25936482604816236, 0.005340758482102225, 0.48646160255658677, 0.008313902856466732, 0.5120257724441908, 0.0959729363316451, 0.14992092892055564, 1.129366804247336, 0.0, 0.007196420551877343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39266873240911526, 0.0, 0.206614088636071, 0.0, 0.3498796900596441, 0.39944511119599396, 0.20356150266418993, 0.0016538302536686447, 0.06495855915458512, 0.0, 0.008926255305896994, 0.0, 0.9183963645987357, 0.0899056400174347, 0.0006636934627600087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.151328458647026 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 7.7977443995413, "peer_score": 10.691949611680512, "coverage": 0.27685838700561993, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999745580056413, "spot_peer_score": 44.550799934380045, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 7.7977443995413, "peer_archived_score": 10.691949611680512, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.550799934380045, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 442, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States Congress [passed a law](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-tiktok-being-banned-supreme-court-congress/) that bans TikTok from the US starting January 20, 2025, but President Trump [issued an executive order](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-executive-order-trump-0bbae2d2d6f102944f41bb75ad40ce69) delaying the implementation of the ban for 75 days. has claimed that he will overturn the ban. The question is whether or not he will be successful in doing so over the first few months of his presidency.\n\nSee also from Forbes: [When Will TikTok Be Back In App Stores? What Could Happen Without Updates](https://www.forbes.com/sites/monicamercuri/2025/01/22/when-will-tiktok-be-back-in-app-stores-what-could-happen-without-updates/)" }, { "id": 31764, "title": "Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "4th person to solve Rubik's cube in <3.44s by Mar 31, 2025?", "url_title": "4th person to solve Rubik's cube in <3.44s by Mar 31, 2025?", "slug": "4th-person-to-solve-rubiks-cube-in-344s-by-mar-31-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-18T00:40:48.361284Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T00:00:11.073436Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.720776Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T00:00:11.073434Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-30T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-30T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T19:02:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 978, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "š", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T05:44:12.133807Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31295, "title": "Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-18T00:40:48.361663Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T19:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T19:04:33.631495Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-30T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe Rubik's Cube was invented in 1974, released in 1980, and had its first world 'speedcubing' championship [just 8 years later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speedcubing#History). The winner achieved a world record of 22.95 seconds. Since then, [17 more people](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) have held this record, lowering the time to below 4 seconds. Speedcubers use memorized algorithms to solve the Rubik's Cube and top performances rely on choosing the fastest option and executing it flawlessly.\n\nAs of January 17, 2025, three performances are separated by the rest. While 20 people [have achieved](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) a time below 4s, only 3 have achieved one below 3.44s:\n\n* Max Park in 2023 (3.13s)\n* Ruihang Xu (č®øēčŖ) in 2024 (3.24s)\n* Yiheng Wang (ēčŗč””) in 2024 (3.27s)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, the [World Cube Association](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) reports that a person besides Max Park, Ruihang Xu, and Yiheng Wang has achieved a single time below 3.44s at solving the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube at an [official event](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/competitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743324683.172977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 975, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743324683.172977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 975, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.020350741068729538 ], "histogram": [ [ 49.83229708607733, 5.1987667547764085, 0.4992229124519457, 0.5978309247825452, 0.11910858648491145, 0.1428339945201196, 0.9601931843584635, 0.025234005939466835, 0.05657439798494715, 0.030157008401200953, 0.6486047017731581, 1.0559522347339065, 0.012126565612649323, 1.0699469238912141e-05, 0.0009548705830693793, 0.014263798031369405, 0.00010442535426686476, 7.41982680947358e-05, 0.08001296904140616, 0.002816910935604201, 0.023533552550240554, 0.003918590661200881, 8.312532639010901e-06, 0.007854393131227376, 0.0041258065111166595, 0.06765249358413554, 0.0031055046998232543, 3.687728218460756e-12, 1.0003247686171994, 0.0, 0.002831966256323043, 0.04761498689896383, 3.292330931421246e-06, 0.0008107554754127307, 3.374965226169209e-05, 0.0034437954434185245, 0.0012190438402646725, 3.629510017848922e-05, 0.00016846093104692976, 0.05198478557446837, 0.0004112243683644663, 0.0, 0.00096772549215846, 0.0, 4.299834108956206e-06, 9.648702519165227e-05, 0.0, 0.003871959048251289, 0.0, 0.0006160148938679276, 0.004826220161441902, 5.788716145802069e-08, 0.0, 3.865878718664984e-06, 0.0, 0.0006295111697746994, 0.0, 0.008342587944339603, 5.239155248437032e-07, 0.0, 0.002837146877655074, 7.755056635954334e-07, 2.8056893355816995e-11, 9.605077359925487e-08, 2.0991166608013362e-07, 0.003345194669164383, 3.315487107304704e-05, 0.002720302505372618, 0.00017662290415193402, 0.0008423645435321035, 0.013834369777899428, 0.0035914402638308794, 0.00021850542406649142, 0.004804915346434471, 1.4019626233594563e-05, 0.00045859522214155776, 0.00011037294399457666, 0.0015240923319467061, 4.251309023240335e-08, 0.0005663457401586507, 0.00029273249065004504, 1.7815660846511083e-07, 0.00013103433540584107, 0.0, 0.0004682295299347421, 0.0004121123200003194, 2.766605605427358e-07, 0.0006700120372900432, 0.0, 0.0007193572764243967, 1.6713054218177967e-07, 2.1327771642212446e-05, 0.0, 0.00687169263061066, 0.0, 0.001863941093696704, 0.0, 6.447344930915327e-07, 0.0, 0.3892028458752786 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.95930165374196, "peer_score": 43.95707045064105, "coverage": 0.9999802910040759, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999802910040759, "spot_peer_score": 42.16772563562926, "spot_baseline_score": 77.56827017390599, "baseline_archived_score": 85.95930165374196, "peer_archived_score": 43.95707045064105, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.16772563562926, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 77.56827017390599 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2948, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe Rubik's Cube was invented in 1974, released in 1980, and had its first world 'speedcubing' championship [just 8 years later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speedcubing#History). The winner achieved a world record of 22.95 seconds. Since then, [17 more people](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) have held this record, lowering the time to below 4 seconds. Speedcubers use memorized algorithms to solve the Rubik's Cube and top performances rely on choosing the fastest option and executing it flawlessly.\n\nAs of January 17, 2025, three performances are separated by the rest. While 20 people [have achieved](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) a time below 4s, only 3 have achieved one below 3.44s:\n\n* Max Park in 2023 (3.13s)\n* Ruihang Xu (č®øēčŖ) in 2024 (3.24s)\n* Yiheng Wang (ēčŗč””) in 2024 (3.27s)" }, { "id": 31762, "title": "Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of April 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-eric-adams-be-mayor-of-new-york-city-on-the-1st-of-april-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-17T19:21:47.590742Z", "published_at": "2025-01-19T19:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.375920Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-22T20:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-22T20:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:36:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-19T19:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31294, "title": "Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of April 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-17T19:21:47.590742Z", "open_time": "2025-01-19T19:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-22T20:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-22T20:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T18:37:06.332668Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-22T20:19:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-22T20:19:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve 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The product contains soy, a known allergen, which is not declared on the product label.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agricultureās Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Pork Dynasty Inc.'s Ready-to-Eat Fried Pork Skin Products is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/pork-dynasty-inc--recalls-ready-eat-fried-pork-skin-products-due-misbranding-and) is accessed by Metaculus after February 28, 2025. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 31744, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737459278.51374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737459278.51374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5607230295810558 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7911260422130078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3817303518403072, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1900763655366908, 0.0, 0.43131426209606216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23986382423358027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32677805160011447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7538890343573066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 23.855857266693395, "peer_score": 5.376995991426302, "coverage": 0.933711639179124, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.933711639179124, "spot_peer_score": 13.321422617436816, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 23.855857266693395, "peer_archived_score": 5.376995991426302, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.321422617436816, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the USDA: \"JPork Dynasty Inc., a Houston, Texas establishment, is recalling approximately 469 pounds of ready-to-eat fried pork skin products due to misbranding and an undeclared allergen, the U.S. Department of Agricultureās Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today. The product contains soy, a known allergen, which is not declared on the product label.\"" }, { "id": 31738, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before March 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bubble-in-the-magnificent-seven-pop-before-march-28-2025", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-17T19:06:22.070728Z", "published_at": "2025-01-17T02:27:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.082075Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T23:49:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-17T02:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q1", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:30.258978Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31270, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before March 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-17T19:06:22.070728Z", "open_time": "2025-01-17T02:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T23:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-28T23:59:03.885137Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if at any point between the open of this question and before March 28, 2025, shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high.", "fine_print": "In case the text above isn't clear enough, an example:\n\nIf Stock X's all-time high is $1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below $500.\nPositive resolution requires that at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks close down >50% from their all time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes, but only counts as one out of the seven companies. Alphabet counts if either of its two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) is at least 50% below its all-time high.\n\nSo if GOOG is down 51% and GOOGL is down 49% and 3 other stocks in the Magnificent Seven are down >50% then this question resolves positive.", "post_id": 31738, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737306769.320623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.014 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.016 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737306769.320623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.014 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.016 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.986, 0.014 ], "means": [ 0.01608481591599722 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9579091798657733, 2.2164137405477744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 72.67471815072349, "peer_score": 0.011279149816312891, "coverage": 0.7415935026329221, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.7415935026329221, "spot_peer_score": 0.043472400950014416, "spot_baseline_score": 97.96595517158244, "baseline_archived_score": 72.67471815072349, "peer_archived_score": 0.011279149816312891, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.043472400950014416, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.96595517158244 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow." }, { "id": 31732, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before March 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bubble-in-the-magnificent-seven-pop-before-march-28-2025", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-17T19:02:43.940868Z", "published_at": "2025-01-20T02:27:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.286605Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:40:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-20T02:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q1", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:15.196631Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 31264, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before March 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-17T19:02:43.940868Z", "open_time": "2025-01-20T02:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T18:41:56.260531Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T03:27:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if at any point between the open of this question and before March 28, 2025, shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high.", "fine_print": "In case the text above isn't clear enough, an example:\n\nIf Stock X's all-time high is $1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below $500.\nPositive resolution requires that at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks close down >50% from their all time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes, but only counts as one out of the seven companies. Alphabet counts if either of its two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) is at least 50% below its all-time high.\n\nSo if GOOG is down 51% and GOOGL is down 49% and 3 other stocks in the Magnificent Seven are down >50% then this question resolves positive.", "post_id": 31732, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737343002.60057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737343002.60057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.23766710411041844 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 1.550027481530686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6108167385986483, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0302020484747556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.88324000530821, "peer_score": 3.8545214210129104, "coverage": 0.9251180480586157, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9251180480586157, "spot_peer_score": 7.7484369221033, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 70.88324000530821, "peer_archived_score": 3.8545214210129104, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.7484369221033, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow." }, { "id": 31713, "title": "Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?", "short_title": "Will an AGI be trained on cheap hardware before 2040?", "url_title": "Will an AGI be trained on cheap hardware before 2040?", "slug": "will-an-agi-be-trained-on-cheap-hardware-before-2040", "author_id": 145394, "author_username": "Haiku", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-16T22:56:54.963939Z", "published_at": "2025-03-18T12:41:17.778279Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T10:23:45.164334Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-18T12:41:17.778277Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-19T12:40:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "āļø", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "š¤", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31249, "title": "Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?", "created_at": "2025-01-16T22:56:54.964454Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T12:40:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-23T12:40:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-23T12:40:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many experts expect Artificial General IntelligenceāAI with general capabilities broadly equivalent or superior to those of human intelligenceāto arrive [<u>relatively soon</u>](https://aisafety.info/questions/5633/). Such a powerful technology is expected to come with [<u>risks</u>](https://www.safe.ai/work/statement-on-ai-risk). Some [<u>proposed mitigations</u>](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.08797) of these risks rely on governance of compute and compute supply chains. If AGI becomes trainable on small amounts of widely available hardware, these interventions may not work, or may be viable only with the addition of extreme measures.\n\nThis question tracks the likelihood that small actors will be able to create or independently reproduce AGI before 2040.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2040, an AGI (as defined by [<u>this question</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)) is created fulfilling both of the following conditions:\n\n* Total technical costs for training the AGI, including hardware and electricity costs, do not exceed \\$100,000 in 2025 USD. Hardware costs correspond to the total market value of the hardware at time of use. The cost of experimental runs before the final runs used to train the AGI will not be included.\n* The hardware is commercially available to individual purchasers.\n\nThe training can either be from scratch or just the fine-tuning of an open source base model. In the latter case, the base model must uncontroversially *not* meet the given definition of AGI and the fine-tuning must be done by a distinct, separate actor.", "fine_print": "* The training must not have utilized cloud compute.\n* Hardware modifications such as overclocking and custom cooling are allowed, as is training on multiple devices, so long as the total cost stays below the limit.\n* Specialized hardware and alternative computing regimes such as quantum, photonic, or analog computing can qualify, so long as they are commercially available and meet the other criteria.\n* Human resources costs don't count as technical costs.\n* If humanity is disempowered or rendered extinct by AI before the criteria are fulfilled, this question will be **annulled**. AI-caused extinction or disempowerment that is a *result* of the criteria being fulfilled does not prevent a **Yes** resolution.\n* If an advanced AI system is created which acts (or is used) to prevent the creation of AGI by individuals and small actors regardless of hardware limits (e.g. through an extreme degree of global power concentration, surveillance, and control, or by destroying all capable hardware -- i.e. a \"Pivotal Act\"), this question will be **annulled**.\n* This question is ultimately about the (in)viability of AI governance mechanisms that rely on supply chain governance. When in doubt, the question should be interpreted in that context.", "post_id": 31713, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762338214.905903, "end_time": 1783419706.6, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762338214.905903, "end_time": 1783419706.6, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.21554512454177646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 1.3202229579970501, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Many experts expect Artificial General IntelligenceāAI with general capabilities broadly equivalent or superior to those of human intelligenceāto arrive [<u>relatively soon</u>](https://aisafety.info/questions/5633/). Such a powerful technology is expected to come with [<u>risks</u>](https://www.safe.ai/work/statement-on-ai-risk). Some [<u>proposed mitigations</u>](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.08797) of these risks rely on governance of compute and compute supply chains. If AGI becomes trainable on small amounts of widely available hardware, these interventions may not work, or may be viable only with the addition of extreme measures.\n\nThis question tracks the likelihood that small actors will be able to create or independently reproduce AGI before 2040." }, { "id": 31712, "title": "Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?", "short_title": "AI labs collaborate at least a little on safety in 2030?", "url_title": "AI labs collaborate at least a little on safety in 2030?", "slug": "ai-labs-collaborate-at-least-a-little-on-safety-in-2030", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-16T21:12:34.082565Z", "published_at": "2025-01-23T15:19:56.832948Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T07:13:32.102094Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-23T15:19:56.832945Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "index": [ { "id": 32633, "type": "index", "name": "AGI 2030 Readiness Index", "slug": "agi-readiness-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/thecurve-bg_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-24T15:44:52Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T15:45:07Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-14T19:32:58.995931Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T06:04:29.907086Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32633, "type": "index", "name": "AGI 2030 Readiness Index", "slug": "agi-readiness-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/thecurve-bg_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-24T15:44:52Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T15:45:07Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-14T19:32:58.995931Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T06:04:29.907086Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "š¤", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31248, "title": "Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2025-01-16T21:12:34.082896Z", "open_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[<u>AI alignment</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_alignment) is the process of ensuring that an AI follows the goals intended by its creators and [<u>minimising existential risk</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence). Current approaches to align frontier AI models largely utilise [<u>reinforcement learning from human feedback</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning_from_human_feedback) (RLHF), where an AIās outputs are scored by humans or automated systems and the AI is fine-tuned to avoid negative scores. These approaches have seen broad success and are used by all major AI companies. However, it is unclear if RLHF will be similarly successful in aligning future systems that will potentially be significantly more powerful as, for example, [<u>it does not appear able</u>](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-sleeper-agents) to root out all forms of deception.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2030, every active frontier AI lab is collaborating with at least one other distinct frontier AI lab in AI safety or alignment research, according to the latest reports by [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If, in the opinion of Metaculus admins, these do not suggest an ongoing collaboration for at least one active frontier AI lab on January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* āAI safety or alignment researchā will be interpreted broadly and will include all research on preventing unwanted outputs from AI models.\n* āCollaboratingā will be interpreted broadly and will include scenarios in which two AI labs have an established relationship and are frequently exchanging insights on AI safety and alignment, even if they are not working together on the problem.\n* A frontier AI lab is a lab that has released an AI model with training compute FLOPs within one order of magnitude of the highest number of FLOPs used to train an AI model, as estimated by Epoch ĪĪ in its[ <u>Large-Scale AI Models tracker</u>](https://epoch.ai/data/large-scale-ai-models) or other credible sources on January 1, 2030.\n* A frontier AI lab is considered active if credible sources suggest it is still working on creating AI models.\n* Two frontier AI labs are considered distinct if they have released different frontier AI models and have not merged since then, according to credible sources.", "post_id": 31712, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762848527.456, "end_time": 1764485617.355, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762848527.456, "end_time": 1764485617.355, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.19070707423744535 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.5851433699949685, 1.9763136483233135, 0.9321926908391438, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1851223516044766, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6448346343356433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772330576101931 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[<u>AI alignment</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_alignment) is the process of ensuring that an AI follows the goals intended by its creators and [<u>minimising existential risk</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence). Current approaches to align frontier AI models largely utilise [<u>reinforcement learning from human feedback</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning_from_human_feedback) (RLHF), where an AIās outputs are scored by humans or automated systems and the AI is fine-tuned to avoid negative scores. These approaches have seen broad success and are used by all major AI companies. However, it is unclear if RLHF will be similarly successful in aligning future systems that will potentially be significantly more powerful as, for example, [<u>it does not appear able</u>](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-sleeper-agents) to root out all forms of deception." } ] }
