Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1660
{ "count": 5948, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1680", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1640", "results": [ { "id": 30252, "title": "Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?", "short_title": "Will Bocelli's New York 2024 concerts sell out?", "url_title": "Will Bocelli's New York 2024 concerts sell out?", "slug": "will-bocellis-new-york-2024-concerts-sell-out", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T05:48:21.428614Z", "published_at": "2024-11-20T19:32:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.504361Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-20T19:32:46Z", "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32559, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_TqQCKYL.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-12-11T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-03T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-03T20:11:36.362514Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-08T06:50:47.494484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30060, "title": "Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T05:48:21.428973Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-24T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-24T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T23:52:41.723690Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-18T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-18T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Andrea Bocelli, the renowned Italian tenor, [is scheduled](https://www.andreabocelli.com/?post_type=tour) to perform at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 18 and 19, 2024. These performances are part of his annual Christmas tour, which typically features holiday classics alongside selections from his albums \"A Family Christmas\" and \"Believe\". Historically, Bocelli's concerts have attracted large audiences, [occasionally](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/music/1949661/andrea-bocelli-tickets-uk-tour-2025) leading to sold-out shows.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024, is officially declared sold out by the venue or the primary ticketing platform, Ticketmaster, before the respective performance date.", "fine_print": "- A concert is considered \"sold out\" when no tickets are available for purchase through official channels. Secondary market availability (resale platforms) will not impact the resolution of this question.\n- Admins may resolve this question based on either reports from credible sources or by checking the availability of the tickets on Ticketmaster.\n- This question will resolve as **Yes** based on the first reports that a performance has been sold out. If extra seats are added after a performance is reported as being sold out, the question will still resolve as **Yes**.\n- If both of the performances are canceled or rescheduled, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 30252, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734522705.530487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734522705.530487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5302684361429798 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09022908093720004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.882493535772869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37113480134217347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20566286060455888, 0.0, 0.19030380486090423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5604905061740477, 0.0, 0.0, 1.599042151818543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17592413500841017, 1.2529543656745905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002949293081317581, 0.5576418855024077, 0.8284076835897499, 0.0, 0.4066000392309813, 0.6831013776873005, 0.7785350193188251, 0.39818867837781474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45859551750172006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.457422476445143, 0.42022652132926797, 0.25819147560843936, 0.0, 0.80518261901127, 1.1791870591298463, 0.9979299509752331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051651386754525144, 0.0, 0.07843168604693199, 0.0, 0.13813894976991253, 0.0, 0.015157278973843901, 0.3111652136642349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04228688608058346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.064943841226617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011600507024289436, 0.2817083346647279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07459731030799356 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -284.72745211927696, "peer_score": 67.16208406949261, "coverage": 0.9998503094914134, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998503094914134, "spot_peer_score": 11.006581957879073, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873626, "baseline_archived_score": -284.72745211927696, "peer_archived_score": 67.16208406949261, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.006581957879073, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873626 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 409, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Andrea Bocelli, the renowned Italian tenor, [is scheduled](https://www.andreabocelli.com/?post_type=tour) to perform at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 18 and 19, 2024. These performances are part of his annual Christmas tour, which typically features holiday classics alongside selections from his albums \"A Family Christmas\" and \"Believe\". Historically, Bocelli's concerts have attracted large audiences, [occasionally](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/music/1949661/andrea-bocelli-tickets-uk-tour-2025) leading to sold-out shows." }, { "id": 30251, "title": "Will Ukraine use ATACMS to strike deep within Russia before 1 January 2025?", "short_title": "Ukraine ATACMS strike deep in Russia before 1 Jan 2025?", "url_title": "Ukraine ATACMS strike deep in Russia before 1 Jan 2025?", "slug": "ukraine-atacms-strike-deep-in-russia-before-1-jan-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T05:21:43.334752Z", "published_at": "2024-11-20T20:55:34.429464Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.443891Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-20T20:55:34.429462Z", "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-19T23:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-19T23:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30059, "title": "Will Ukraine use ATACMS to strike deep within Russia before 1 January 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T05:21:43.335162Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-25T03:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-25T03:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-19T23:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-19T23:44:22.522129Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-19T23:44:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 17, 2024, Joe Biden [authorised](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c) Ukraine to utilise the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes deep within Russian territory. This marks a significant shift in US policy, as previous restrictions limited Ukraine's use of US missiles to occupied territories and attacks just across the border.\n\nThe authorization came as a response to [the deployment](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2796pdm1lo) of North Korean troops supporting Russian forces in their fight against Ukraine. On [November 19](https://www.ft.com/content/3f4654ec-4dbd-45d1-9d51-869993c717d0), Ukraine hit a weapons arsenal in Bryansk, 190km from the current frontlines.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Ukraine uses ATACMS to strike any location within the pre-2014 borders of Russia, excluding those Russian oblasts that are immediately adjacent to Ukrainian-held territory: Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod.\n\nIf no such reports are available before 7 January 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "- Credible sources must confirm that the missile(s) landed in the specified area.\n- Intercepted missiles will not resolve this question positively. \n- Missiles that strike in the specified area, but do not detonate (e.g., due to malfunction) will nonetheless result in a **Yes** resolution.\n- In the event of ambiguity regarding whether a missile strike was intercepted or successful, Metaculus admins may use their discretion based on information available from credible sources.", "post_id": 30251, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734645270.191224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734645270.191224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6376272433596918 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.21233733898991575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012427873490302374, 0.0, 0.010174674941564427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017185032642488336, 0.3262038732013748, 0.0, 0.18701184823326883, 0.0, 0.0074560666001308225, 0.0036470026727336412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1998841222004088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08929898399145973, 0.009177490688521169, 0.008069288595311508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010778773543335458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006639643375099136, 0.7654521888776699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6863281578927374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15396039658997956, 0.0, 0.0, 2.31104371029533, 0.27212868753500247, 0.8799763948642016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6075959669037758, 0.0504725380405172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39080740960360627, 0.013695601476635202, 0.0, 0.43754359052556363, 0.6495679415804932, 1.0700328686302552, 0.049484673575065724, 0.41727520509811944, 0.48203206679527805, 0.0, 0.30751421199081597, 0.0, 0.1027218499487311, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7182895797706206, 0.21803294258429545, 0.0, 0.8023397176434954, 0.17810342260289236, 0.18262540065513533, 0.0, 0.030597622151664183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49072637228749416, 0.02583872132393838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12610574305286126, 1.0343687655931564, 0.8949384680256739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02813465474885012, 0.05811106897101362, 0.36730907972780197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.574705357969667 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 481, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 17, 2024, Joe Biden [authorised](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c) Ukraine to utilise the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes deep within Russian territory. This marks a significant shift in US policy, as previous restrictions limited Ukraine's use of US missiles to occupied territories and attacks just across the border.\n\nThe authorization came as a response to [the deployment](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2796pdm1lo) of North Korean troops supporting Russian forces in their fight against Ukraine. On [November 19](https://www.ft.com/content/3f4654ec-4dbd-45d1-9d51-869993c717d0), Ukraine hit a weapons arsenal in Bryansk, 190km from the current frontlines." }, { "id": 30213, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?", "short_title": "Will the opening box office of Mufasa: TLK surpass Sonic 3?", "url_title": "Will the opening box office of Mufasa: TLK surpass Sonic 3?", "slug": "will-the-opening-box-office-of-mufasa-tlk-surpass-sonic-3", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T18:07:32.656608Z", "published_at": "2024-11-20T19:51:24.166930Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.360702Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-20T19:51:24.166928Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-24T15:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30012, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T18:07:32.656956Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-24T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-24T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-24T15:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-24T16:21:35.968607Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedgehog 3*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18259086/) is an upcoming action-adventure comedy film based on the Sega video game series. The original *Sonic the Hedgehog* earned $58 million in its domestic opening weekend, while its sequel, *Sonic the Hedgehog 2*, made $72 million.\n\nBoth films are based in intellectual properties from the early 90s and are set for release on December 20, 2024. Despite the differences in the box office performances of the previous installments in their respective franchises, projections for both films [appear to be similarly strong](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-mufasa-the-lion-king-and-sonic-the-hedgehog-3s-early-box-office-ranges-plus-wicked-gladiator-ii-and-moana-2-updates/).\n\nBox Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of [Mufasa: The Lion King](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13186482/) surpasses the domestic box office for the opening weekend of [Sonic the Hedgehog 3](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt18259086/), according to the numbers provided by Box Office Mojo. If the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Sonic the Hedgehog 3 exceeds that of Mufasa: The Lion King, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Other credible sources might be considered if Box Office Mojo does not report the relevant numbers.\n\nThe weekend box office figures are [generally expected](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#weekend) to be posted after 1 PM Pacific Time on the Monday the day after the weekend. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.", "post_id": 30213, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734642177.657466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734642177.657466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17918808124665206 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8556111548229577, 0.0, 0.19030380486090423, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1296587044258108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16530903200104163, 3.8626325656999345, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9160603417480413, 0.22205743285900253, 0.25819147560843936, 0.7288472840026776, 0.8385885461547113, 1.1781795046855636, 0.0, 0.07539365390346586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20475723697397333, 0.0, 0.13813894976991253, 0.043015910471330396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46963515880361406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0063312489975652355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2509037850551384, 0.11693021616061994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2958919415417589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1073881054056872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.289657892179102, 0.0012965554486791008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.02464062427608051, 0.0, 0.003650949509915334, 0.0, 0.04577629280903341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02039609682099969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007446731347793363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027269256698844842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14989147521115825, 0.0, 0.004442640210629016 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -37.87789782447123, "peer_score": 36.85642349343791, "coverage": 0.9997347133799592, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997347133799592, "spot_peer_score": -6.908156479027069, "spot_baseline_score": -121.08967824986186, "baseline_archived_score": -37.87789782447123, "peer_archived_score": 36.85642349343791, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.908156479027069, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -121.08967824986186 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 329, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedgehog 3*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18259086/) is an upcoming action-adventure comedy film based on the Sega video game series. The original *Sonic the Hedgehog* earned $58 million in its domestic opening weekend, while its sequel, *Sonic the Hedgehog 2*, made $72 million.\n\nBoth films are based in intellectual properties from the early 90s and are set for release on December 20, 2024. Despite the differences in the box office performances of the previous installments in their respective franchises, projections for both films [appear to be similarly strong](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-mufasa-the-lion-king-and-sonic-the-hedgehog-3s-early-box-office-ranges-plus-wicked-gladiator-ii-and-moana-2-updates/).\n\nBox Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday." }, { "id": 30203, "title": "Will Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton win the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-lainey-wilson-or-chris-stapleton-win-the-2024-cma-award-for-single-of-the-year", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:47.204339Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.183750Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29998, "title": "Will Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton win the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:47.204339Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T14:15:25.146466Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton wins the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**. 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1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:47.183209Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:35:56.279776Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, 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This is the country's first Marburg virus outbreak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) publicly confirms at least one case of Marburg virus disease in a resident of the United States before January 1, 2025. The confirmation must be made through an official CDC announcement, such as a press release, health alert, or update on their website. The question resolves as **No** if the CDC does not confirm any cases of Marburg virus disease in U.S. residents before Midnight UTC on January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "- Confirmation is required; CDC's mere acknowledgment of a case being reported, such as from a state department of health, will not count. Suspected or probable cases will not count. Only cases meeting the [CDC's confirmed case definition](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/clinicians/case-definition.html#confirmed) for mpox will be considered. Imported cases count, as long as the infected person is a U.S. resident and physically present within the 50 states at the time of confirmation. 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December 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.893964Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T22:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-01T22:07:42.135655Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Dayton Daily News on [September 12, 2024](https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/beef-pork-wiener-label-mix-up-leads-to-recall-undeclared-allergen/OU4NXTZP7VGX5KFQD64OPADGFE/), About 1,944 pounds of ready-to-eat wieners have been recalled by the Dearborn Sausage Company Inc. because beef products were labeled as pork and vice versa. The swap also led to soy, a known allergen, not being declared on the beef wieners. The problem was discovered when the establishment received a complaint from a retailer that the products they received may have been incorrectly labeled. The establishment determined that they inadvertently mislabeled beef wiener products as beef and pork wiener products and vice versa. The products labeled as beef and pork wiener products actually contain beef wiener products that contain soy; therefore, soy is not declared on the finished product label. Additionally, the product labeled as beef wiener products actually contain beef and pork wiener products, therefore, pork is not declared on the finished product label. There have been no confirmed reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Dearborn Sausage Company's ready-to-eat (RTE) wiener products due to misbranding and undeclared allergens is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/dearborn-sausage-company-inc--recalls-wiener-products-due-misbranding-and-undeclared) is accessed by Metaculus after November 30, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered.", "post_id": 30198, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028058.140151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7615000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028058.140151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7615000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5780830545133256 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5515434958076675, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4724920989633882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.440062421023168, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.09877132838432481, 0.9457595080007023, 0.0, 0.3773418411414129, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.4249377485786018, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2673887142896781, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -53.732207023967746, "peer_score": -10.692759741645483, "coverage": 0.9888962279508512, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9888962279508512, "spot_peer_score": -6.297131711559613, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -53.732207023967746, "peer_archived_score": -10.692759741645483, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.297131711559613, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Dayton Daily News on [September 12, 2024](https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/beef-pork-wiener-label-mix-up-leads-to-recall-undeclared-allergen/OU4NXTZP7VGX5KFQD64OPADGFE/), About 1,944 pounds of ready-to-eat wieners have been recalled by the Dearborn Sausage Company Inc. because beef products were labeled as pork and vice versa. The swap also led to soy, a known allergen, not being declared on the beef wieners. The problem was discovered when the establishment received a complaint from a retailer that the products they received may have been incorrectly labeled. The establishment determined that they inadvertently mislabeled beef wiener products as beef and pork wiener products and vice versa. The products labeled as beef and pork wiener products actually contain beef wiener products that contain soy; therefore, soy is not declared on the finished product label. Additionally, the product labeled as beef wiener products actually contain beef and pork wiener products, therefore, pork is not declared on the finished product label. There have been no confirmed reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products.\"" }, { "id": 30197, "title": "Will iRobot file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-irobot-file-for-bankruptcy-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.873476Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.650704Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29992, "title": "Will iRobot file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.873476Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:34:10.570061Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In January 2024, Amazon terminated its planned acquisition of iRobot due to regulatory opposition. At the time of this question, iRobot has had operating losses in the years ending January 2022, December 2022, December 2023, and is on a pace to have operating losses for the current fiscal year as well. It has also faced revenue declines and negative cash flow from operations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if iRobot Corporation files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. 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At the time of this question, iRobot has had operating losses in the years ending January 2022, December 2022, December 2023, and is on a pace to have operating losses for the current fiscal year as well. It has also faced revenue declines and negative cash flow from operations." }, { "id": 30196, "title": "Will Bausch Health, Inc., file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bausch-health-inc-file-for-bankruptcy-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.852875Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.463207Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29991, "title": "Will Bausch Health, Inc., file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.852875Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:33:16.782931Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bausch Health sells pharmaceutical drugs and medical devices. Recently it [denied](https://ir.bauschhealth.com/news-releases/2024/07-24-2024) it was considering bankruptcy, calling such reports \"unsubstantiated rumors.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Bausch Health, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. 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If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/). 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"open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-coming-waymo-monopoly).\n\nCruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy self-driving vehicles. In late October 2023, Cruise [suspended](https://apnews.com/article/cruise-robotaxi-suspends-operations-gm-73f27ef959afe1e201e61f0fd31802d5) all driverless operations nationwide after California regulators ordered the company to remove its driverless cars from state roads, citing safety concerns and accusing Cruise of misrepresenting the technology's capabilities.\n\nThe California Department of Motor Vehicles [stated](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statement-on-cruise-llc-suspension/) that Cruise's driverless vehicles posed \"an unreasonable risk to public safety\" and that the company had provided misleading information about the safety of its self-driving system. This move by regulators came after a series of incidents involving Cruise vehicles, including crashes caused by the vehicles' abrupt braking.\n\nAdditionally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [is investigating](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/cruise-under-nhtsa-probe-into-autonomous-driving-pedestrian-injuries.html) multiple reports of Cruise self-driving cars engaging in inappropriately hard braking, resulting in collisions. The agency is seeking more information from Cruise regarding five new crash reports involving such incidents.\n\nCruise's suspension of driverless operations across the U.S. represents a major setback for the company and General Motors' ambitions in the autonomous vehicle space. The company has [stated](https://x.com/Cruise/status/1717707807460393022?s=20) that it would take time to examine its processes and rebuild public trust.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve \"Yes\" if credible sources indicate that rider-only ride-hailing trips operated by Cruise are available to the general public anywhere in the United States on December 31, 2024.", "fine_print": "- \"Rider-only\" means one in which the only humans in the car are passengers and no human operates the vehicle for the duration of the trip.\n- \"Available to the general public\" means that any member of the public is eligible to use the service without first joining a waitlist or having been granted use of the service as part of a limited testing or early access phase.\n- \"United States\" means the 50 states plus the District of Columbia.", "post_id": 30124, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731770977.190248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731770977.190248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.14002442775364052 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14719648515667086, 0.6850893156161345, 0.9511683097991879, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.6832333621873382, 0.7549731054070336, 0.34215028852106266, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5318655572458102, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9538159072926062, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3023204169672386, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.6704898138335, "peer_score": -0.8452465847391009, "coverage": 0.9994033902662772, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994033902662772, "spot_peer_score": 3.720094839285893, "spot_baseline_score": 81.55754288625727, "baseline_archived_score": 73.6704898138335, "peer_archived_score": -0.8452465847391009, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.720094839285893, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 81.55754288625727 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-coming-waymo-monopoly).\n\nCruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy self-driving vehicles. In late October 2023, Cruise [suspended](https://apnews.com/article/cruise-robotaxi-suspends-operations-gm-73f27ef959afe1e201e61f0fd31802d5) all driverless operations nationwide after California regulators ordered the company to remove its driverless cars from state roads, citing safety concerns and accusing Cruise of misrepresenting the technology's capabilities.\n\nThe California Department of Motor Vehicles [stated](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statement-on-cruise-llc-suspension/) that Cruise's driverless vehicles posed \"an unreasonable risk to public safety\" and that the company had provided misleading information about the safety of its self-driving system. This move by regulators came after a series of incidents involving Cruise vehicles, including crashes caused by the vehicles' abrupt braking.\n\nAdditionally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [is investigating](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/cruise-under-nhtsa-probe-into-autonomous-driving-pedestrian-injuries.html) multiple reports of Cruise self-driving cars engaging in inappropriately hard braking, resulting in collisions. The agency is seeking more information from Cruise regarding five new crash reports involving such incidents.\n\nCruise's suspension of driverless operations across the U.S. represents a major setback for the company and General Motors' ambitions in the autonomous vehicle space. The company has [stated](https://x.com/Cruise/status/1717707807460393022?s=20) that it would take time to examine its processes and rebuild public trust." }, { "id": 30123, "title": "Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-enact-export-controls-for-some-generative-ai-software-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:45.015908Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.500704Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29953, "title": "Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:45.015908Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:35:31.864065Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.\n\nAs the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if, before January 1, 2025, the US imposes export controls on some generative AI software, and NO otherwise.", "fine_print": "The export controls need not be specifically to China - anything under the standard export regime of the US would qualify.\n\nThe export controls must be specifically related to AI that can generate content. It is not sufficient if software produced by Microsoft or OpenAI cannot be exported to certain countries for other reasons - such as export bans on all software, or on all commercial products sold to certain countries.\n\nThese need to be actual export controls, as per the 2022 controls on semiconductors. 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As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.\n\nAs the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI." }, { "id": 30122, "title": "Before January 1, 2025, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-january-1-2025-will-the-international-criminal-court-issue-an-arrest-warrant-for-benjamin-netanyahu", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:44.988200Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.515548Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29952, "title": "Before January 1, 2025, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:44.988200Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T14:08:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5283, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\r\n\r\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\r\n\r\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\r\n\r\nSee Also\r\n\r\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if before January 1, 2025, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister).", "fine_print": "A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as Yes.\r\nSecret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before Jan 1, 2025. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before Jan 1, 2025, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.", "post_id": 30122, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766547.564045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2675 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766547.564045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2675 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7324999999999999, 0.2675 ], "means": [ 0.3299296578035125 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3620041531989578, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.11117524074178475, 0.0, 1.4552949559473565, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0839758874887769, 0.3268262380230357, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 1.0315454926338852, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.7371812401109382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -77.13520420840325, "peer_score": 25.72167791356511, "coverage": 0.9977463283803727, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9977463283803727, "spot_peer_score": 12.138362496863865, "spot_baseline_score": -90.23892033735775, "baseline_archived_score": -77.13520420840325, "peer_archived_score": 25.72167791356511, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.138362496863865, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -90.23892033735775 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\r\n\r\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\r\n\r\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\r\n\r\nSee Also\r\n\r\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)" } ] }
