Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1680
{ "count": 5948, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1700", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1660", "results": [ { "id": 30121, "title": "Will Violet be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-violet-be-the-closest-color-to-the-2025-pantone-color-of-the-year", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:44.962934Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.957541Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29951, "title": "Will Violet be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:44.962934Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T18:38:22.296132Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 255 ≤ H < 330.", "fine_print": "- If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.\r\n- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.", "post_id": 30121, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766557.806827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.136 ], "centers": [ 0.2903 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766557.806827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.136 ], "centers": [ 0.2903 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7097, 0.2903 ], "means": [ 0.27705247508348246 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 1.5441244742781408, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.6441340422812852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.04842515677234604, 0.09877132838432481, 0.29095551644889905, 0.011364900518339544, 1.0273055807779088, 0.5507706624329844, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0171971430160318, 0.2010418409121184, 0.4087506853414205, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2602758877180714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 52.19404655241766, "peer_score": 15.723093822005904, "coverage": 0.9971220895013325, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9971220895013325, "spot_peer_score": 9.366128153457316, "spot_baseline_score": 50.52812114532668, "baseline_archived_score": 52.19404655241766, "peer_archived_score": 15.723093822005904, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.366128153457316, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 50.52812114532668 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown)." }, { "id": 30120, "title": "Will Blue be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-blue-be-the-closest-color-to-the-2025-pantone-color-of-the-year", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:44.941637Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.664188Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29950, "title": "Will Blue be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:44.941637Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T18:38:07.679945Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 165 ≤ H < 255.", "fine_print": "- If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.\r\n- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.", "post_id": 30120, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766566.571648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33737247198812065 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766566.571648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33737247198812065 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6626275280118794, 0.33737247198812065 ], "means": [ 0.4011771166258829 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 1.3300741017491136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.8916633893793723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.12966433094557198, 0.0, 1.093840000957555, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35490766944912944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2747971700063219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -0.3727452229386281, "peer_score": 0.4518491592111984, "coverage": 0.9963627356483982, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9963627356483982, "spot_peer_score": 24.854165482994738, "spot_baseline_score": 40.627004469405826, "baseline_archived_score": -0.3727452229386281, "peer_archived_score": 0.4518491592111984, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.854165482994738, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 40.627004469405826 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown)." }, { "id": 30119, "title": "Will Green be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-green-be-the-closest-color-to-the-2025-pantone-color-of-the-year", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.939040Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.791971Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29949, "title": "Will Green be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.939040Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:53.475028Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 75 ≤ H < 165.", "fine_print": "- If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.\r\n- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.", "post_id": 30119, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766576.96047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.20800000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766576.96047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.20800000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.792, 0.20800000000000002 ], "means": [ 0.3104660591328461 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 1.1795382101018643, 1.0014360183128659, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.5933357744281108, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16926099250120838, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22400851848619524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4436105835990434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 30.054517338850587, "peer_score": 12.743625363708125, "coverage": 0.9954628538312736, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9954628538312736, "spot_peer_score": 32.22054257718367, "spot_baseline_score": 66.35723354175227, "baseline_archived_score": 30.054517338850587, "peer_archived_score": 12.743625363708125, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.22054257718367, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 66.35723354175227 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown)." }, { "id": 30118, "title": "Will Yellow be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-yellow-be-the-closest-color-to-the-2025-pantone-color-of-the-year", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.918331Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.701412Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29948, "title": "Will Yellow be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.918331Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:37.534885Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 45 ≤ H < 75.", "fine_print": "- If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.\r\n- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.", "post_id": 30118, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766585.998521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22399999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766585.998521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22399999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.776, 0.22399999999999998 ], "means": [ 0.2346709972898523 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1335707525460808, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.21661591250644974, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.9234146250173129, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.11525585627893538, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.43163413112310406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.8786769446443468, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11486889005002407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 62.48028977805287, "peer_score": 11.925780208109481, "coverage": 0.9946655198490177, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9946655198490177, "spot_peer_score": 9.530824708321026, "spot_baseline_score": 63.412855752504065, "baseline_archived_score": 62.48028977805287, "peer_archived_score": 11.925780208109481, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.530824708321026, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 63.412855752504065 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown)." }, { "id": 30117, "title": "Will Orange be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-orange-be-the-closest-color-to-the-2025-pantone-color-of-the-year", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.898564Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.611418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29947, "title": "Will Orange be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.898564Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:21.447381Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 15 ≤ H < 45.", "fine_print": "- If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.\r\n- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.", "post_id": 30117, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766595.347863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.132 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28115 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766595.347863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.132 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28115 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.20270001986478545 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.030893002561247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.6602856756916111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4789264546165807, 0.0, 0.48452348365123593, 0.22827012898946356, 0.7549731054070336, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.9234146250173129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.7747625166761468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.29095551644889905, 0.7915655151651038, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24946699768446445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -121.75223937577258, "peer_score": 9.205195643816612, "coverage": 0.9935722381842358, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9935722381842358, "spot_peer_score": 10.734115004356703, "spot_baseline_score": -125.15387669959645, "baseline_archived_score": -121.75223937577258, "peer_archived_score": 9.205195643816612, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.734115004356703, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -125.15387669959645 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown)." }, { "id": 30116, "title": "Will Red be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-red-be-the-closest-color-to-the-2025-pantone-color-of-the-year", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.878018Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.054944Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29946, "title": "Will Red be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.878018Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:11.101982Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if H ≥ 330 OR H < 15.", "fine_print": "- If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.\r\n- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.", "post_id": 30116, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766603.996194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.256 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3018 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766603.996194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.256 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3018 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.744, 0.256 ], "means": [ 0.2506937598002839 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 1.134459373307331, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.4323821840106447, 0.0, 0.22150405058678926, 0.9120497244989734, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8166807884554648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.817018026668554, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.595541104562294, "peer_score": -0.11089187092149352, "coverage": 0.9928453482411528, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9928453482411528, "spot_peer_score": -0.7654932234619004, "spot_baseline_score": 57.337452644594435, "baseline_archived_score": 58.595541104562294, "peer_archived_score": -0.11089187092149352, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7654932234619004, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 57.337452644594435 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown)." }, { "id": 30115, "title": "Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-north-korea-deploy-military-personnel-to-ukraine-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.857465Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.351780Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T12:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29945, "title": "Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.857465Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T12:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:11:33.517454Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "North Korea and Russia have significantly strenghened their military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine. In September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [visited Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66810830), meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential military and economic collaboration. In early November 2024, Ukraine [fought](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14le0p4310o) North Korean troops for the first time, while [more recent reports](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/10/europe/russia-north-korea-forces-prepared-kursk-ukraine/index.html) claim that 10,000 [North Korean troops](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army) will join Russian soldiers in an attempt to take back the Ukraine-occupied region of Kursk.\r\n\r\n[Moreover](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/i/151515209/asia)\r\n\r\n> South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600K to 700K tonnes of rice to North Korea, $200M, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.\r\n\r\nHowever, until November 12, 2024, there have been no reports of North Korean troops in Ukrainian soil.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that at least 100 North Korean troops have entered Ukrainian soil before January 1, 2025.\r\n\r\n If no credible reports indicate the simultaneous presence of 100 or more North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "- Ukrainian soil is defined based on the pre-2014 internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.\r\n- This question pertains only to personnel who have been members of any of the five branches of North Korea's military forces, the Korean People's Army.\r\n- This question will resolve based on the best information available as of January 7, 2025.\r\n- For purposes of this question, troops will count as North Korean military personnel if they are identified as such by credible sources. This is true even in the event of edge cases such as them wearing non-North Korean insignia, being under the command of Russian officers, or being deployed as part of multinational units. \r\n- Non-combat roles such as logistical support count as well, as long as the North Korean personnel are present on pre-2014 Ukrainian soil.", "post_id": 30115, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766614.268791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766614.268791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5216689349659949 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9865143749467873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7513785061179565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 2.070889987626511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10760738615800111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -69.27007599463951, "peer_score": -2.872978294872322, "coverage": 0.9918792270593071, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9918792270593071, "spot_peer_score": 27.47447451605707, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -69.27007599463951, "peer_archived_score": -2.872978294872322, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.47447451605707, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "North Korea and Russia have significantly strenghened their military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine. In September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [visited Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66810830), meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential military and economic collaboration. In early November 2024, Ukraine [fought](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14le0p4310o) North Korean troops for the first time, while [more recent reports](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/10/europe/russia-north-korea-forces-prepared-kursk-ukraine/index.html) claim that 10,000 [North Korean troops](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army) will join Russian soldiers in an attempt to take back the Ukraine-occupied region of Kursk.\r\n\r\n[Moreover](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/i/151515209/asia)\r\n\r\n> South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600K to 700K tonnes of rice to North Korea, $200M, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.\r\n\r\nHowever, until November 12, 2024, there have been no reports of North Korean troops in Ukrainian soil." }, { "id": 30114, "title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-astro-bot-win-the-game-of-the-year-2024-award", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.551807Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.253895Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T13:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29944, "title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.551807Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T13:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T13:35:28.458606Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November.\n\n[Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Astro Bot wins the Game of the Year award for 2024 at [The Game Awards](https://thegameawards.com/). If the awards ceremony takes place and Astro Bot does not win Game of the Year, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The Game Awards ceremony is [currently scheduled](https://thegameawards.com/watch) for December 12, 2024. Any delays will still count. However, if the ceremony does not take place before January 1, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**. \n\nIf Astro Bot shares the Game of the Year award it will still count.", "post_id": 30114, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731767424.758808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.493 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731767424.758808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.493 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.4143172832212405 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 1.4265517967054289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0986957085250921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1989524413442383, 0.0, 0.6562642058017948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10814993964073923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -15.457947713665478, "peer_score": -4.039724629888437, "coverage": 0.9911240047685528, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9911240047685528, "spot_peer_score": -15.276721695204378, "spot_baseline_score": -39.592867633113926, "baseline_archived_score": -15.457947713665478, "peer_archived_score": -4.039724629888437, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -15.276721695204378, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -39.592867633113926 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November.\n\n[Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY." }, { "id": 30113, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-international-criminal-court-issue-any-warrants-in-november-or-december-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.530650Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.553034Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29943, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.530650Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T14:08:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5283, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.\r\n\r\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 11, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for any individual, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If there are no reports of the ICC issuing any arrest warrants during that period, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Summonses to appear will not count. For more information please see the ICC's [How the Court works](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works), especially the following, under *Investigations*:\r\n\r\n>After gathering evidence and identifying a suspect, the Prosecution requests ICC judges to issue:\r\n>1. an arrest warrant: the ICC relies on countries to make arrests and transfer suspects to the ICC; or\r\n>2. a summons to appear: suspects appear voluntarily (if not, an arrest warrant may be issued).\r\n\r\nSecret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before January 1, 2025. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before January 1, 2025, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.", "post_id": 30113, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731768259.326226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4239745765176501 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731768259.326226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4239745765176501 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.33066680552426014 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7801619252237224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.24418868951516343, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15612734595056516, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.744192667710192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7438639832482066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -39.614961301487554, "peer_score": 26.439141901575947, "coverage": 0.9904509606819463, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9904509606819463, "spot_peer_score": 17.096967026280772, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -39.614961301487554, "peer_archived_score": 26.439141901575947, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.096967026280772, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.\r\n\r\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. 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The United Kingdom maintains [a list of such changes it has recognized](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/country-names/timeline-of-country-name-changes-in-hmg-use-1919-to-present) for its official communications since 1922.\n\nFor instance, Macedonia changed its name to North Macedonia in 2019 for [diplomatic purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macedonia_naming_dispute). \n\n[This Wikipedia article has a non-exhaustive list of such changes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographical_renaming#Countries).", "resolution_criteria": "For a name change to be recognized, it must be confirmed by an official declaration from the state but does not need to be validated by major international organizations.", "fine_print": "- Only full UN members will be considered. A country has to be a member of the UN during its name change to resolve this question.\n- If an existing country splits into two or more new countries, this question will not resolve if one of them keeps the official name of the original country and remains in the UN.\n- Any change in the official name of the country would resolve this question. For example Greece changing its official name from Hellenic Republic to Republic of Hellas would count.", "post_id": 30112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731769075.808898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.071 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731769075.808898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.071 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05450276870754104 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4151124147365461, 0.6854559460994392, 1.2188564438547367, 0.48480115213825536, 2.014102986688757, 0.0, 0.9724602874510355, 1.4421034484795499, 0.0, 0.26389250470094455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 90.97971403382888, "peer_score": 0.7388048502263994, "coverage": 0.9898647951031172, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9898647951031172, "spot_peer_score": 1.0166869489200705, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 90.97971403382888, "peer_archived_score": 0.7388048502263994, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.0166869489200705, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Changing a country’s name is relatively rare, typically motivated by political, historical, or national reconciliation reasons. The United Kingdom maintains [a list of such changes it has recognized](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/country-names/timeline-of-country-name-changes-in-hmg-use-1919-to-present) for its official communications since 1922.\n\nFor instance, Macedonia changed its name to North Macedonia in 2019 for [diplomatic purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macedonia_naming_dispute). \n\n[This Wikipedia article has a non-exhaustive list of such changes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographical_renaming#Countries)." }, { "id": 30111, "title": "Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usdas-center-for-veterinary-biologics-grant-a-license-for-a-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5-vaccine-in-dairy-cattle-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.489443Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.974383Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29941, "title": "Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.489443Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:37.950684Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), HPAI has hit dairy cattle hard, with 473 [herds testing positive](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm), as of November 8, 2024. Mostly mild in cows (with most cows [reportedly](https://hoards.com/article-34969-how-will-avian-influenza-impact-milk-supply.html) being asymptomatic and most of those that get sick recovering within 3 weeks), HPAI primary affects [older cows](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(24)00112-1/fulltext), leading to decreased milk production from an industry standpoint. While mortality in cows [is low](https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2024/05/10/usda-hhs-announce-new-actions-reduce-impact-and-spread-h5n1), from a public health standpoint there is potentially a risk of spillover of H5N1 Influenza from cattle to humans, which might under certain circumstances lead to an epidemic. According to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, testing from the CDC [has found](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/studies-find-little-no-immunity-h5n1-avian-flu-virus-americans) that the American population has little to no pre-existing immunity to the H5N1 virus that is circulating on farms.\n\nH5N1 has been [detected in milk](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7321e1.htm) as well as being [spread to farm workers](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotlights/protect-farm-workers-bird-flu.html). Therefore a potential useful line of defense in protecting human public health would be an H5 vaccine for dairy cows.\n\nIn May 2023, the US Department of Agriculture's Center for Veterinary Biologics (USDA-CVB) [began testing](https://www.avma.org/news/usda-starts-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-vaccine-trials) vaccines for HPAI. On August 28, 2024, it [expanded](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/program-update/cvb-notice-24-13-field-studies-nonviable-non-replicating-veterinary-vaccines) to authorize field trials. The advantage of field trials is that the studies are no longer required to be conducted in containment facilities. For further details of the field studies authorization including protocols please see [CVB Notice NO. 24-13 (pdf)](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-13.pdf)\n\nThe USDA-CVB is [accepting applications](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-11.pdf) for the licensure of vaccines for livestock, including dairy cattle under the following pathways: \n\n>Conditional Licensure – CVB will consider serological response in vaccinated target species as data to support a reasonable expectation of efficacy. Serological testing should focus on antibodies to the H5 clade 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin using an assay such as or similar to the hemagglutination inhibition assay. \n\n>Full Licensure – Currently CVB will only consider studies using vaccinationchallenge with H5 HPAI in the target species, along with all other licensure requirements, to obtain full licensure. Note the recent [Select Agent Exemption for H5 HPAI](https://www.selectagents.gov/sat/exemptions/avian-influenza.htm). Study protocols should be submitted to CVB for review.\n\nAs of 11 November 2024, one company that has begun field trials is veterinary pharmaceutical and biotechnology company Medgene Labs, which [is expecting](https://kbhbradio.com/south-dakota-company-begins-trials-on-h5n1-avian-flu-vaccine-for-dairy-cows/) to complete its H5 vaccine study in December 2024 and share its results with the USDA at that time.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the US Department of Agriculture's [Center for Veterinary Biologics](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/veterinary-biologics) (USDA-CVB) grants or issues a full or conditional license for a vaccine against H5 [Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza) (HPAI) to be administered to dairy cattle in the United States.\n\nIf this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Authorized field studies do not in themselves count as licensure, nor does early access use or experimental use. \n\nIf USDA-CVB approves the vaccine for a larger group that includes dairy cattle (such as for livestock), that will count. Any approval that does not include dairy cattle will not.\n\nPlease note that, as USDA-CVB says in [NOTICE NO. 24-11](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-11.pdf), \"U.S. licensure is distinct from authorization for U.S. use.\" For purposes of this question, conditional licensure or full licensure are sufficient to resolve this question as Yes. \n\nAny vaccine for H5 strains of HPAI will count, including but not limited to H5N1, and regardless of clade, including but not limited to clade 2.3.4.4b, as long as it is associated with the current HPAI outbreak.", "post_id": 30111, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731769941.111473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.311 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4119 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731769941.111473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.311 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4119 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6890000000000001, 0.311 ], "means": [ 0.3300279804382733 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7557233603953178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6194141030607017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.05181454149830181, 1.7899162702652016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.25497155913411557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11822116287106943, 0.5686453819704269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.24205791512874625, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.84247669445858, "peer_score": 7.114124036735795, "coverage": 0.9891120189124791, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9891120189124791, "spot_peer_score": 1.1281601556999286, "spot_baseline_score": 46.25758880422043, "baseline_archived_score": 55.84247669445858, "peer_archived_score": 7.114124036735795, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.1281601556999286, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 46.25758880422043 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), HPAI has hit dairy cattle hard, with 473 [herds testing positive](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm), as of November 8, 2024. Mostly mild in cows (with most cows [reportedly](https://hoards.com/article-34969-how-will-avian-influenza-impact-milk-supply.html) being asymptomatic and most of those that get sick recovering within 3 weeks), HPAI primary affects [older cows](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(24)00112-1/fulltext), leading to decreased milk production from an industry standpoint. While mortality in cows [is low](https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2024/05/10/usda-hhs-announce-new-actions-reduce-impact-and-spread-h5n1), from a public health standpoint there is potentially a risk of spillover of H5N1 Influenza from cattle to humans, which might under certain circumstances lead to an epidemic. According to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, testing from the CDC [has found](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/studies-find-little-no-immunity-h5n1-avian-flu-virus-americans) that the American population has little to no pre-existing immunity to the H5N1 virus that is circulating on farms.\n\nH5N1 has been [detected in milk](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7321e1.htm) as well as being [spread to farm workers](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotlights/protect-farm-workers-bird-flu.html). Therefore a potential useful line of defense in protecting human public health would be an H5 vaccine for dairy cows.\n\nIn May 2023, the US Department of Agriculture's Center for Veterinary Biologics (USDA-CVB) [began testing](https://www.avma.org/news/usda-starts-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-vaccine-trials) vaccines for HPAI. On August 28, 2024, it [expanded](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/program-update/cvb-notice-24-13-field-studies-nonviable-non-replicating-veterinary-vaccines) to authorize field trials. The advantage of field trials is that the studies are no longer required to be conducted in containment facilities. For further details of the field studies authorization including protocols please see [CVB Notice NO. 24-13 (pdf)](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-13.pdf)\n\nThe USDA-CVB is [accepting applications](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-11.pdf) for the licensure of vaccines for livestock, including dairy cattle under the following pathways: \n\n>Conditional Licensure – CVB will consider serological response in vaccinated target species as data to support a reasonable expectation of efficacy. Serological testing should focus on antibodies to the H5 clade 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin using an assay such as or similar to the hemagglutination inhibition assay. \n\n>Full Licensure – Currently CVB will only consider studies using vaccinationchallenge with H5 HPAI in the target species, along with all other licensure requirements, to obtain full licensure. Note the recent [Select Agent Exemption for H5 HPAI](https://www.selectagents.gov/sat/exemptions/avian-influenza.htm). Study protocols should be submitted to CVB for review.\n\nAs of 11 November 2024, one company that has begun field trials is veterinary pharmaceutical and biotechnology company Medgene Labs, which [is expecting](https://kbhbradio.com/south-dakota-company-begins-trials-on-h5n1-avian-flu-vaccine-for-dairy-cows/) to complete its H5 vaccine study in December 2024 and share its results with the USDA at that time." }, { "id": 30110, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bitcoin-dominance-exceed-630-on-any-single-day-in-november-or-december-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.462329Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.501357Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T13:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29940, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.462329Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T13:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:24:12.841754Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies combined. BTC dominance has fluctuated over the years. It reached a low of 38.3% in 2022, but has been steadily rising since, achieving a local peak of 60.0% on November 13, 2024.\n\nThe rise could be attributed to multiple factors. The SEC's [approval](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-gives-green-light-options-listing-spot-bitcoin-etfs-nyse-2024-10-18/) of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 increased accessibility for mainstream investors, drawing significant capital into BTC. Donald Trump's re-election might have further driven the rise in BTC dominance as, according to [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89v1w5lxxqo):\n\n> In the run-up to the election Trump said he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint digital asset-friendly financial regulators - spurring expectations that he would strip back regulations on the crypto industry.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 5 January 2025, [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) reports a Bitcoin dominance value of 63.1% or higher for any single date in November or December 2024.", "fine_print": "If CoinMarketCap is unavailable or does not report the relevant data between January 1 and January 5, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 30110, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731770880.939185, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.558989760464627 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731770880.939185, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.558989760464627 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4538109239722229 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9227388757853525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6674701426484752, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.040387528095117, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7540625191977606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8720104955769312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.5496523818350643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -16.836124201764488, "peer_score": 4.563484849580497, "coverage": 0.9883569290985664, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9883569290985664, "spot_peer_score": 10.23352805211801, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -16.836124201764488, "peer_archived_score": 4.563484849580497, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.23352805211801, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies combined. BTC dominance has fluctuated over the years. It reached a low of 38.3% in 2022, but has been steadily rising since, achieving a local peak of 60.0% on November 13, 2024.\n\nThe rise could be attributed to multiple factors. The SEC's [approval](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-gives-green-light-options-listing-spot-bitcoin-etfs-nyse-2024-10-18/) of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 increased accessibility for mainstream investors, drawing significant capital into BTC. Donald Trump's re-election might have further driven the rise in BTC dominance as, according to [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89v1w5lxxqo):\n\n> In the run-up to the election Trump said he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint digital asset-friendly financial regulators - spurring expectations that he would strip back regulations on the crypto industry." }, { "id": 30074, "title": "Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-1-euro-be-worth-less-than-1-us-dollar-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:45.064384Z", "published_at": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.704223Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29917, "title": "Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:45.064384Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T03:35:50.835312Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After reaching its maximum of `1.5852` in July 2008 the EUR/USD exchange rate has significantly declined over the years. In September-October 2022 there was a brief period when the price of 1 EUR was less than 1 USD. Since then, the Euro price recovered slightly and reached an exchange rate of `1.1038` US dollar on 01.01.2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between 1 January 2024 and 1 January 2025, the EUR/USD exchange rate as [reported by Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD) is less than `1.0000`.", "fine_print": "Should Google Finance become unavailable, alternative sources like xe.com or Yahoo Finance can be used.\n\nIf the Euro or US Dollar ceases to exist before the resolution date, the question will be annulled.", "post_id": 30074, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731680129.863553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11666666666666668 ], "centers": [ 0.3050480054303672 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5375 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731680129.863553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11666666666666668 ], "centers": [ 0.3050480054303672 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5375 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6949519945696327, 0.3050480054303672 ], "means": [ 0.30886029372449453 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.24311673443421403, 1.1848204221051952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.111277215629205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.5526853407020484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.7197661834970732, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.24841220022046556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03411561381977573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 57.00915259246375, "peer_score": 19.259118107544406, "coverage": 0.999074232859744, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999074232859744, "spot_peer_score": 9.644626719518891, "spot_baseline_score": 47.49852288648651, "baseline_archived_score": 57.00915259246375, "peer_archived_score": 19.259118107544406, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.644626719518891, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 47.49852288648651 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After reaching its maximum of `1.5852` in July 2008 the EUR/USD exchange rate has significantly declined over the years. In September-October 2022 there was a brief period when the price of 1 EUR was less than 1 USD. Since then, the Euro price recovered slightly and reached an exchange rate of `1.1038` US dollar on 01.01.2024." }, { "id": 30073, "title": "Will the United Nations have exactly 193 member states on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-united-nations-have-exactly-193-member-states-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:45.042492Z", "published_at": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.105124Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29916, "title": "Will the United Nations have exactly 193 member states on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:45.042492Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:40:02.575385Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the official number of United Nations member states is exactly 193 on December 31, 2024 when checked by Metaculus. It will resolve negatively if the number of member states is not 193. The mechanism of checking will be to access [this specific link](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states) from the UN. The Admin resolving the question will hit control-F and count the number of instances of \"Date of Admission\" on the page. ", "fine_print": "If the United Nations as an organization ceases to exist before the resolution date, this question will be annulled. ", "post_id": 30073, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731680141.467454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9440000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.965 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731680141.467454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9440000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.965 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8759764001688942 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8981326213582779, 0.28147862720218586, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.10527918291777463, 4.479367534107401, 1.097078341557532, 0.10060271610369056, 0.5516766655207717, 0.9986946187243765 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.51783830794082, "peer_score": 11.698213641531638, "coverage": 0.9982026577658123, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9982026577658123, "spot_peer_score": 12.900082142116078, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 92.51783830794082, "peer_archived_score": 11.698213641531638, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.900082142116078, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members" }, { "id": 30072, "title": "Before 2025, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-2025-will-openais-commercial-operations-cease-to-be-governed-by-its-nonprofit-board-of-directors", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:45.021126Z", "published_at": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.748208Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29915, "title": "Before 2025, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:45.021126Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:41:09.695880Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "OpenAI Inc., a Delaware 501(c)3 nonprofit corporation, was founded in late 2015. At its [inception](https://web.archive.org/web/20151222103150/https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/), OpenAI's mission and corporate structure were intended to maximize and broadly distribute the benefits of AI for humanity while minimizing the risks of such a potentially transformative—and possibly harmful—technology.\n\nThe [tumultuous events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#2023%E2%80%93present:_Brief_departure_of_Altman_and_Brockman) of November 17-21, 2023 culminated in a [reconstitution](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/22/sam-altmans-back-heres-whos-on-the-new-openai-board-and-whos-out.html) of the nonprofit's board of directors and, along with it, [speculation](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/technology/openai-board-capitalists.html) regarding whether the company's original mission and structure will remain intact.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that OpenAI's commercial operations (such operations, as of the writing of this question, are housed under OpenAI Global LLC) are no longer governed by the nonprofit board of directors of OpenAI Inc.\n\n* **Resolution in the Event of Restructuring, Merger, etc.**—If, through corporate restructuring, merger, acquisition, transfer of assets (including intellectual property) or by other means, all or a substantial portion of OpenAI's commercial operations are transferred to another entity that is not controlled by the nonprofit board of directors of OpenAI, this question would resolve \"Yes\".\n\n* **Resolution in the Event of a Mass Departure of Staff to a Competitor or New Entity**—If within a 180-day period, more than 50% of employees of OpenAI Global LLC (or a successor entity that is still under the control of the nonprofit board) housing OpenAI's commercial activities become employees of another single entity that is not controlled by the nonprofit board of OpenAI Inc., this would be considered a substantial transfer of OpenAI's intellectual property, and this question would resolve \"Yes\".", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30072, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731680151.255996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19166666666666668 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67155 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731680151.255996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19166666666666668 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67155 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.433800195398006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8550999668332966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 1.053825225202456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8354877802743572, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.9238200452096865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40631712137182807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24825259445393932, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05731836786094527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9536672171748533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 6.737129730607069, "peer_score": 26.020212858449316, "coverage": 0.9975395535429318, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9975395535429318, "spot_peer_score": 45.569047095908935, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 6.737129730607069, "peer_archived_score": 26.020212858449316, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 45.569047095908935, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI Inc., a Delaware 501(c)3 nonprofit corporation, was founded in late 2015. At its [inception](https://web.archive.org/web/20151222103150/https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/), OpenAI's mission and corporate structure were intended to maximize and broadly distribute the benefits of AI for humanity while minimizing the risks of such a potentially transformative—and possibly harmful—technology.\n\nThe [tumultuous events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#2023%E2%80%93present:_Brief_departure_of_Altman_and_Brockman) of November 17-21, 2023 culminated in a [reconstitution](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/22/sam-altmans-back-heres-whos-on-the-new-openai-board-and-whos-out.html) of the nonprofit's board of directors and, along with it, [speculation](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/technology/openai-board-capitalists.html) regarding whether the company's original mission and structure will remain intact." }, { "id": 30071, "title": "Will Kalshi outrank the Wells Fargo Mobile App in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kalshi-outrank-the-wells-fargo-mobile-app-in-the-top-free-finance-apps-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:44.998462Z", "published_at": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.276994Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29914, "title": "Will Kalshi outrank the Wells Fargo Mobile App in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:44.998462Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:41:55.507808Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi has spectular near-term success in building its userbase, as surpassing the Wells Fargo app (currently ranked #13) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election. In addition, Kalshi has also announced it would pay interest on user deposits.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2024, according to the Apple App Store at [this link](https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone/finance-apps/6015?chart=top-free), on or after December 31, 2024 Kalshi has a higher rank than the Wells Fargo Mobile App when accessed by Metaculus Admins. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 30071, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731680161.269797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3177 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5920000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731680161.269797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3177 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5920000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6823, 0.3177 ], "means": [ 0.37585414924846555 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0006804744517646, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.36062787721102224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 1.1038911858716258, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.12637014538023153, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05272754794558683, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9339806081280183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 42.03415145894463, "peer_score": 21.715079911936368, "coverage": 0.9967596341090068, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9967596341090068, "spot_peer_score": 23.007194501006794, "spot_baseline_score": 44.847812141147706, "baseline_archived_score": 42.03415145894463, "peer_archived_score": 21.715079911936368, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.007194501006794, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.847812141147706 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi has spectular near-term success in building its userbase, as surpassing the Wells Fargo app (currently ranked #13) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election. In addition, Kalshi has also announced it would pay interest on user deposits." }, { "id": 30070, "title": "Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-new-nuclear-armed-state-emerge-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:44.979974Z", "published_at": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.179722Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T13:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29913, "title": "Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:44.979974Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T13:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:16:21.494275Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with [nine countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/) have played a crucial role in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons. However, concerns persist about the potential for additional countries to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities, either secretly or openly, which could destabilize regional and global security.\n\nThe emergence of a new nuclear-armed state could have significant implications for international security, potentially triggering arms races or geopolitical realignments. It is therefore important to assess the likelihood of a new country successfully developing and testing a nuclear weapon by 2030, taking into account both announced and unannounced tests.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible evidence becomes available that a country not currently possessing nuclear weapons has successfully developed and tested a nuclear weapon. The current nuclear-armed states are the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea.\n\nThis evidence can come from one or more of the following sources:\n\nAn official announcement or acknowledgment by the government of the country in question that it has developed and tested a nuclear weapon.\nConfirmation from a recognized international organization (e.g., International Atomic Energy Agency, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization) or a major intelligence agency (e.g., CIA, MI6, FSB) that the country in question has developed and tested a nuclear weapon.\nDetection and verification of a nuclear test by a global monitoring network, such as the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), with widespread international consensus on the identity of the country responsible for the test", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30070, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731680171.822895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.02666666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.054000000000000006 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731680171.822895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.02666666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.054000000000000006 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9733333333333334, 0.02666666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.055907365264254785 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.6052661683979137, 3.463889580467367, 0.19411211639144127, 0.0, 1.8381086923765713, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.1991930523344586, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.030893002561247163, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.58864653833537, "peer_score": 2.4488466814801138, "coverage": 0.9957566880545131, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9957566880545131, "spot_peer_score": 4.931220933967844, "spot_baseline_score": 96.10058683841363, "baseline_archived_score": 91.58864653833537, "peer_archived_score": 2.4488466814801138, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.931220933967844, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 96.10058683841363 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with [nine countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/) have played a crucial role in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons. However, concerns persist about the potential for additional countries to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities, either secretly or openly, which could destabilize regional and global security.\n\nThe emergence of a new nuclear-armed state could have significant implications for international security, potentially triggering arms races or geopolitical realignments. It is therefore important to assess the likelihood of a new country successfully developing and testing a nuclear weapon by 2030, taking into account both announced and unannounced tests." }, { "id": 30069, "title": "Will Arkansas have 1 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-arkansas-have-1-million-or-more-residents-living-in-drought-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:44.827934Z", "published_at": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.739243Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29912, "title": "Will Arkansas have 1 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:44.827934Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:42:40.265925Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Drought conditions impact Little Rock businesses, locals](https://www.kark.com/news/local-news/drought-conditions-impact-little-rock-businesses-locals/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/arkansas) lists greater than or equal to 1 million Arkansas residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 1 million, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30069, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731680190.675515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7636000000000002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731680190.675515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7636000000000002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.46168570677709614 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6414679702821111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 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