Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1700
{ "count": 5948, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1720", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1680", "results": [ { "id": 30066, "title": "Will either Matt Dolan or Jane Timken be announced as the successor to occupy JD Vance's Senate seat?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-either-matt-dolan-or-jane-timken-be-announced-as-the-successor-to-occupy-jd-vances-senate-seat", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:44.776164Z", "published_at": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.021111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29909, "title": "Will either Matt Dolan or Jane Timken be announced as the successor to occupy JD Vance's Senate seat?", "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:44.776164Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:29:16.025028Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After his election as Vice President, Senator JD Vance will vacate his Senate seat by no later than January 20, 2025. Under Ohio law, his successor will be appointed by the governor. For further background please see: [Who will replace JD Vance in the U.S. Senate? Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine mulling pick](https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/07/who-will-replace-jd-vance-in-the-senate-mike-dewine-to-decide/76108856007/) | [How DeWine will choose Vance’s replacement to represent Ohio in U.S. Senate after VP election](https://www.daytondailynews.com/ohio/how-dewine-will-choose-vances-replacement-to-represent-ohio-in-us-senate-after-vp-election/67AOU3NB3JCRVMF6ZL5FSEDUWA/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, either Matt Dolan or Jane Timken are announced as Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's choice to succeed JD Vance as US Senator from the state. If Governor DeWine chooses someone else or does not make his decision before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the announcement of the appointment, not the swearing in or officially occupying the Senate seat.", "post_id": 30066, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731680221.931505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731680221.931505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.46034201516561113 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7413379753302476, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0383711526329211, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 1.4229507941344106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.3198901708805667, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3967337216557119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.27352346147739587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -23.27466419783393, "peer_score": -0.4324711995296732, "coverage": 0.9872191282748072, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9872191282748072, "spot_peer_score": 9.380377275115055, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -23.27466419783393, "peer_archived_score": -0.4324711995296732, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.380377275115055, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After his election as Vice President, Senator JD Vance will vacate his Senate seat by no later than January 20, 2025. Under Ohio law, his successor will be appointed by the governor. For further background please see: [Who will replace JD Vance in the U.S. Senate? Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine mulling pick](https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/07/who-will-replace-jd-vance-in-the-senate-mike-dewine-to-decide/76108856007/) | [How DeWine will choose Vance’s replacement to represent Ohio in U.S. Senate after VP election](https://www.daytondailynews.com/ohio/how-dewine-will-choose-vances-replacement-to-represent-ohio-in-us-senate-after-vp-election/67AOU3NB3JCRVMF6ZL5FSEDUWA/)" }, { "id": 30065, "title": "Will Lara Trump be chosen for a paid position within the Trump White House before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-lara-trump-be-chosen-for-a-paid-position-within-the-trump-white-house-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:44.756421Z", "published_at": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.342515Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T13:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29908, "title": "Will Lara Trump be chosen for a paid position within the Trump White House before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:44.756421Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T13:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:16:32.250870Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "WHYY: [A guide to key figures in Donald Trump’s orbit](https://whyy.org/articles/trump-election-2024-white-house-elon-musk/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Lara Trump is announced as having been offered a salaried federal position within the incoming Trump Administration. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Unpaid roles such as volunteer advisory positions will not count. Any salaried position will count, regardless of whether she is reported to actually accept the paychecks. This question resolves based on the announcement of her being picked for a role by the incoming Administration, not beginning her duties; therefore requirements such as Senate confirmation will not affect resolution.", "post_id": 30065, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731680231.232824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731680231.232824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17357148182509183 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2526371569213358, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 1.0797187855564652, 0.0, 0.766338005925373, 0.4927265728301974, 0.0, 1.2444463248184636, 0.13357075254608086, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 1.774908235421257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.3504577366922599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.06562229978837776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 77.39134749937332, "peer_score": 12.582449982271163, "coverage": 0.9907953451491065, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9907953451491065, "spot_peer_score": 9.10552834810465, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 77.39134749937332, "peer_archived_score": 12.582449982271163, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.10552834810465, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "WHYY: [A guide to key figures in Donald Trump’s orbit](https://whyy.org/articles/trump-election-2024-white-house-elon-musk/)" }, { "id": 30015, "title": "Will Warren Buffett be ranked in the top 5 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-warren-buffett-be-ranked-in-the-top-5-of-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:35.142706Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.726822Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29840, "title": "Will Warren Buffett be ranked in the top 5 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:35.142706Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T03:36:48.820600Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B. Jeff Bezos was 4th, with 200.9B. Bernard Arnault & family\nwas 5th, with $183.1B. And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Warren Buffett is in 5th place or better on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "A tie will count as **Yes**. If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). ", "post_id": 30015, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731597938.351214, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26666666666666666 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731597938.351214, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26666666666666666 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2536783681142607 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2110594023760083, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37080339970187226, 0.24633891502435895, 0.21922528291861626, 0.0, 0.0, 3.24683276630916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4910579528848256, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8082686944682784, 0.4453829235582337, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.52185176540581, "peer_score": 4.795721373907682, "coverage": 0.9988489673259078, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9988489673259078, "spot_peer_score": 11.132844436933455, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 70.52185176540581, "peer_archived_score": 4.795721373907682, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.132844436933455, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B. Jeff Bezos was 4th, with 200.9B. Bernard Arnault & family\nwas 5th, with $183.1B. And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B." }, { "id": 30014, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 19.0 for November 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-190-for-november-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:35.131557Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.756555Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29839, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 19.0 for November 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:35.131557Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:25:02.415148Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for November 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\r\n\r\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\r\n\r\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 30014, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731597938.801636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5411 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731597938.801636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5411 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.34457525943675554 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.48471271075140676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.14645117361277293, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.9534811684743405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5638079365395507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2117814103644726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5692953262209413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_score": 35.92783919683244, "peer_score": 8.68507395128418, "coverage": 0.995409514084458, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.995409514084458, "spot_peer_score": 19.09689168463184, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 35.92783919683244, "peer_archived_score": 8.68507395128418, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.09689168463184 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 30013, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 and less than or equal to 19.0 for November 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-180-and-less-than-or-equal-to-190-for-november-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:35.116964Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.953076Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29838, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 and less than or equal to 19.0 for November 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:35.116964Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:04:04.414101Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for November 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\r\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\r\n\r\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\r\n\r\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 30013, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731597939.24712, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731597939.24712, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40622976849228337 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.019400798515195, 0.03911858530021452, 0.10117303050480864, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 1.3364148858342282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5917742424428909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4026924373620272, 0.07073615502467667, 0.4087506853414205, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18766490074763403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_score": 7.482543028179402, "peer_score": -5.622821769283568, "coverage": 0.9939854543987245, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9939854543987245, "spot_peer_score": 10.861430296807915, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 7.482543028179402, "peer_archived_score": -5.622821769283568, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.861430296807915 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 30012, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for November 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-170-and-less-than-or-equal-to-180-for-november-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.673789Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.283552Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29837, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for November 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.673789Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:23:13.900299Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for November 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\r\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\r\n\r\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\r\n\r\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 30012, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731597939.687373, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731597939.687373, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5664464809488232 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042257903079586705, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1854113211708963, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.07205665544157025, 0.5608812398816437, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0456204770450541, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.620502543612061, 0.09877132838432481, 1.1763000002292945, 0.0839758874887769, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.813899022650909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1795028568637056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_score": -17.17170012278008, "peer_score": -4.759991491981044, "coverage": 0.992539595798762, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.992539595798762, "spot_peer_score": -13.175785554177939, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -17.17170012278008, "peer_archived_score": -4.759991491981044, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -13.175785554177939 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 30011, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 17.0 for November 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-less-than-or-equal-to-170-for-november-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.660727Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.622614Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29836, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 17.0 for November 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.660727Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:22:14.618097Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for November 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\r\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\r\n\r\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\r\n\r\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 30011, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731597940.174858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17500000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731597940.174858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17500000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.39199781374031706 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.7203196603611988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9359757965156209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.09207380390900106, 0.250282548042939, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.7836711631170052, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.975198550116599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": -25.15387669959645, "baseline_score": -79.94548082717114, "peer_score": 4.117685893404634, "coverage": 0.9909823758789782, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9909823758789782, "spot_peer_score": 51.05212852101255, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.15387669959645, "baseline_archived_score": -79.94548082717114, "peer_archived_score": 4.117685893404634, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 51.05212852101255 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 30010, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-crimean-bridge-be-hit-with-an-attack-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.647271Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.952778Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29835, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.647271Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:29:26.369074Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.\n\nIn April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):\n\n>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.\n\nOn April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):\n\n>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.\n>\n>\"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high,\" Rybar said.\n>\n>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 2, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that the Crimean Bridge has been struck with weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles that could pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge.", "fine_print": "* The bridge must be physically struck by the weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles, attacks that are intercepted or otherwise do not strike the bridge will not count.\n* There is no requirement on how much damage the bridge must receive, the only requirement is that the strike must pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge. For example, a car bomb detonated on the bridge would count, while the bridge being struck with bullets of a caliber that would cause only superficial harm, or the collision of a small vessel that does not pose a threat to the integrity of the bridge do not count.\n* There is no requirement on who the attack is attributed to. Attacks attributed to or blamed on any country or group would count, including terrorism.\n* A strike on either the rail bridge or the road bridge counts.\n* A strike on the immediate bridge approaches will also count.\n* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether potentially qualifying events satisfy these criteria, and may **annul** the question if it is unclear from available reporting whether the criteria have been satisfied.", "post_id": 30010, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731598010.454453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.425 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731598010.454453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.425 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3701251421888 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5251100260785395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27352346147739587, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 1.3118972035365601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.055351681451673844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.140369089227689, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984496538067877, 0.28537466842726333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 3.1217556623089178, "peer_score": -9.781200626713826, "coverage": 0.9899849145362775, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9899849145362775, "spot_peer_score": 16.41182241417414, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 3.1217556623089178, "peer_archived_score": -9.781200626713826, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.41182241417414, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.\n\nIn April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):\n\n>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.\n\nOn April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):\n\n>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.\n>\n>\"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high,\" Rybar said.\n>\n>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7." }, { "id": 30009, "title": "Will Nebraska have 1.5 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nebraska-have-15-million-or-more-residents-living-in-drought-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.633419Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.095814Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 74, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29834, "title": "Will Nebraska have 1.5 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.633419Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:43:18.804266Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[No improvement for ongoing drought in Omaha](https://www.wowt.com/2024/10/24/no-improvement-ongoing-drought-omaha/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/nebraska) lists greater than or equal to 1.5 million Nebraska residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 1.5 million, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30009, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731598010.887219, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731598010.887219, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7791880403267041 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2110594023760083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3098154203883496, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.10829599059260063, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.34492309648022634, 3.230047223167464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.9534811684743405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 67.17107171919056, "peer_score": 8.3710292480294, "coverage": 0.9892975633563819, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9892975633563819, "spot_peer_score": 15.539501733442583, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 67.17107171919056, "peer_archived_score": 8.3710292480294, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.539501733442583, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[No improvement for ongoing drought in Omaha](https://www.wowt.com/2024/10/24/no-improvement-ongoing-drought-omaha/)" }, { "id": 30008, "title": "Will Chris Stapleton win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chris-stapleton-win-an-award-in-any-of-these-2024-cma-awards-categories", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.622714Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.085157Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29833, "title": "Will Chris Stapleton win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.622714Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T14:25:02.264156Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Chris Stapleton wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Album of the Year, Male Vocalist of the Year, Single of the Year, or Song of the Year, as announced at the 58th Annual Country Music Association Awards. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for November 20, 2024.", "post_id": 30008, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731598011.374787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.725649992455971 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731598011.374787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.725649992455971 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27435000754402905, 0.725649992455971 ], "means": [ 0.6969593523565474 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9534811684743405, 0.09207380390900106, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2333115619302246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.4137677165138935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6156953989908125, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3585785386355396, 0.12637014538023153, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 62.98344826636917, "peer_score": 19.34315123345664, "coverage": 0.9885511623598913, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9885511623598913, "spot_peer_score": 11.737564549909075, "spot_baseline_score": 53.73457564915135, "baseline_archived_score": 62.98344826636917, "peer_archived_score": 19.34315123345664, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.737564549909075, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 53.73457564915135 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)" }, { "id": 30007, "title": "Will Apple stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-apple-stock-continuously-remain-below-its-all-time-high-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.461700Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.358820Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29832, "title": "Will Apple stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.461700Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T03:37:58.133014Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple remains below $237.49 continuously through December 31, 2024. If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/). ", "fine_print": "In case of forward or reverse stock splits, the price will be adjusted and resolved accordingly, based on comparison to the all-time high.", "post_id": 30007, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731598011.837849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36100000000000004 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.723 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731598011.837849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36100000000000004 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.723 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5280679886864589 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.03911858530021452, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.7192738719963858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5318568816244924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0171971430160318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 1.872046620216779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3381911385413752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -17.707779411183203, "peer_score": 15.046824009615838, "coverage": 0.9868349843637813, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9868349843637813, "spot_peer_score": -2.3970235304378815, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -17.707779411183203, "peer_archived_score": 15.046824009615838, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.3970235304378815, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)" }, { "id": 30006, "title": "Will the Hudson Bay Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 8, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-hudson-bay-mountain-ski-resort-be-listed-as-open-by-on-the-snows-ski-report-on-december-8-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.451868Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.857079Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T16:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29831, "title": "Will the Hudson Bay Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 8, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.451868Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T16:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-08T16:02:09.822401Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2023 a [historic drought](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/el-nino-drought-bc-interior-ski-hills-1.7043016) caused [delays](https://www.interior-news.com/local-news/lack-of-snow-forces-hudson-bay-mountain-resort-to-delay-opening-7116185) in opening.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Hudson Bay Mountain Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/british-columbia/hudson-bay-mountain/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after December 8, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 30006, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731598012.273116, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8686666666666666 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731598012.273116, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8686666666666666 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7333020321097167 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18585333546602295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5251100260785395, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 1.751153470269927, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04633289385926926, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6360449495642069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48261657070563385, 0.681067132313021, 0.77241230623455, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.46591511094643184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 64.68185857678797, "peer_score": 17.3281812888431, "coverage": 0.9864370411468875, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9864370411468875, "spot_peer_score": 8.677148998942474, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 64.68185857678797, "peer_archived_score": 17.3281812888431, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.677148998942474, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2023 a [historic drought](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/el-nino-drought-bc-interior-ski-hills-1.7043016) caused [delays](https://www.interior-news.com/local-news/lack-of-snow-forces-hudson-bay-mountain-resort-to-delay-opening-7116185) in opening." }, { "id": 30005, "title": "Will Dogecoin close at $0.420 a share before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-dogecoin-close-at-0420-a-share-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.442223Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.744629Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T12:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29830, "title": "Will Dogecoin close at $0.420 a share before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.442223Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T12:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-30T12:51:51.730112Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victory/articleshow/115209313.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price of Dogecoin according to [this Coingecko link](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogecoin/historical_data) reaches $0.420 a share at any point after the launch of this question and before January 1, 2025. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Intraday prices do not count; this question resolves based on daily closing prices. No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled** if it still cannot be accessed.", "post_id": 30005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731598070.5226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5640152750688158 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731598070.5226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5640152750688158 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43598472493118423, 0.5640152750688158 ], "means": [ 0.4891498958289255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.8966185500099491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6940731237543156, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8070570889084724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9091607905566558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7822978205004967, 0.11123030328809189, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -4.015014740299338, "peer_score": 2.068130297823818, "coverage": 0.9855857634020071, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9855857634020071, "spot_peer_score": 30.041370665351696, "spot_baseline_score": 17.38061403743173, "baseline_archived_score": -4.015014740299338, "peer_archived_score": 2.068130297823818, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.041370665351696, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 17.38061403743173 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victory/articleshow/115209313.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst)" }, { "id": 30004, "title": "Will Lainey Wilson or Luke Combs win the 2024 CMA Award forEntertainer of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-lainey-wilson-or-luke-combs-win-the-2024-cma-award-forentertainer-of-the-year", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.431977Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.333847Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:23:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29829, "title": "Will Lainey Wilson or Luke Combs win the 2024 CMA Award forEntertainer of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.431977Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T14:24:03.985255Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Lainey Wilson or Luke Combs wins the 2024 CMA Award for Entertainer of the Year. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for November 20, 2024.", "post_id": 30004, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731598070.966442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731598070.966442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5697665933613159 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2809803997845661, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.90572503390162, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7024889698956026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.6645775164919735, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7550491926232843, 0.0, 0.15707059460009898, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.9219489787813662, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -23.795878864374036, "peer_score": 4.229062089006235, "coverage": 0.9855801694205513, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9855801694205513, "spot_peer_score": 12.658695592818406, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -23.795878864374036, "peer_archived_score": 4.229062089006235, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.658695592818406, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)" }, { "id": 30003, "title": "Will Alabama have 2.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-alabama-have-20-million-or-more-residents-living-in-drought-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.401557Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.793571Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29828, "title": "Will Alabama have 2.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T14:25:34.401557Z", "open_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:52:13.442355Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Drought worsens with little change in the weather pattern expected\n](https://www.wdhn.com/weather/drought-worsens-with-little-change-in-the-weather-pattern-expected/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/alabama) lists greater than or equal to 2.0 million Alabama residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 2.0 million, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731598071.433093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6597352498245124 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731598071.433093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6597352498245124 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7463137850602202 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 2.696672711258718, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10260095459086088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0015115223091358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.057099978657575844, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -106.28587028846327, "peer_score": 15.383153064226253, "coverage": 0.9855739014237017, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9855739014237017, "spot_peer_score": 29.24087433329278, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -106.28587028846327, "peer_archived_score": 15.383153064226253, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.24087433329278, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Drought worsens with little change in the weather pattern expected\n](https://www.wdhn.com/weather/drought-worsens-with-little-change-in-the-weather-pattern-expected/)" }, { "id": 29956, "title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026?", "short_title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule in 2025?", "slug": "will-brazil-ban-the-6x1-work-schedule-in-2025", "author_id": 226489, "author_username": "lucas.somensi", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T01:22:38.620768Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T02:48:09.078587Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T16:34:31.290547Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-15T02:48:09.078585Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-22T02:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29790, "title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T01:22:38.620869Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T02:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T02:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T02:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There is currently [a lot of talk](https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2024/11/11/why-is-everyone-talking-about-the-6x1-work-schedule-in-brazil ) about banning the 6x1 work schedule (6 working days, 1 off) for registered workers in Brazil. Proponents claim that working 6 days a week is too exhausting and doesn't leave enough time for workers to rest, socialize and run errands. An ambitious constitutional ammendment has recently [been proposed](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2024/11/proposal-to-reduce-weekly-work-hours-in-brazil-gains-momentum-in-congress.shtml) by two Brazilian congress members that would mandate a 4x3 schedule for all workers and has garnered some support.\n\nPortuguese language sources:\n- https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2024/11/12/fim-da-escala-6x1-o-que-muda-se-pec-for-aprovada-no-congresso.htm\n- https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/redacao/2024/11/12/o-que-e-a-escala-6x1-entenda-o-que-propoe-a-pec-para-reducao-da-jornada.htm", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the 6x1 work schedule is officialy banned for most CLT occupations in Brazil before 1 January 2026, and will resolve as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "This question concerns only CLT occupations in Brazil (registered workers), and will resolve to **Yes** even if employers find legal workarounds to keep hiring people in 6x1 work schedules after a ban.\n\nIn Brazil, a CLT worker is someone employed under the rules of the Consolidação das Leis do Trabalho (CLT), or the Consolidation of Labor Laws. This legislation governs employment relations and protects workers' rights in Brazil. Being a CLT worker means you’re formally employed and entitled to a range of rights and protections set out in Brazilian labor laws.\n\n\"Most CLT occupations\" here means that the law lists no more than 5 exceptions to the general rule, affecting in total no more than 1% of the workforce", "post_id": 29956, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757954060.651983, "end_time": 1760730370.782, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757954060.651983, "end_time": 1760730370.782, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07780118166982217 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.9897567635254954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There is currently [a lot of talk](https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2024/11/11/why-is-everyone-talking-about-the-6x1-work-schedule-in-brazil ) about banning the 6x1 work schedule (6 working days, 1 off) for registered workers in Brazil. Proponents claim that working 6 days a week is too exhausting and doesn't leave enough time for workers to rest, socialize and run errands. An ambitious constitutional ammendment has recently [been proposed](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2024/11/proposal-to-reduce-weekly-work-hours-in-brazil-gains-momentum-in-congress.shtml) by two Brazilian congress members that would mandate a 4x3 schedule for all workers and has garnered some support.\n\nPortuguese language sources:\n- https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2024/11/12/fim-da-escala-6x1-o-que-muda-se-pec-for-aprovada-no-congresso.htm\n- https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/redacao/2024/11/12/o-que-e-a-escala-6x1-entenda-o-que-propoe-a-pec-para-reducao-da-jornada.htm" }, { "id": 29948, "title": "Will the US sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-sanction-venezuelan-oil-again-by-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.354902Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.937011Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T22:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-12T22:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29782, "title": "Will the US sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.354902Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-12T22:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-12T22:34:36.256238Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T22:34:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-easing-venezuela-oil-sanctions-response-election-deal-official-2023-10-18/):\n\n> The Biden administration...broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in response to a deal reached between the government and opposition parties for the 2024 election - the most extensive rollback of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas.\n\n> A new general license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department authorized OPEC member Venezuela, which had been under crushing sanctions since 2019, to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that sanctions on Venezuelan oil have been (re)imposed by the United States.\n\nAny imposition or reimposition of sanctions that were not in effect on December 15, 2023, will be sufficient for resolution. This includes a reversal of the Biden-administration's sanction relief.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29948, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731446416.597436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.442 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731446416.597436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.442 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.558, 0.442 ], "means": [ 0.5234088698659439 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9137915745633833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6043687854556801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13777525111476435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.885236146413569, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-easing-venezuela-oil-sanctions-response-election-deal-official-2023-10-18/):\n\n> The Biden administration...broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in response to a deal reached between the government and opposition parties for the 2024 election - the most extensive rollback of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas.\n\n> A new general license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department authorized OPEC member Venezuela, which had been under crushing sanctions since 2019, to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation." }, { "id": 29947, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up in December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-sp-500-index-go-up-in-december-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.339848Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.145894Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29781, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up in December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.339848Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:38:29.394916Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the final trading day of December 2024 is higher than that of the final trading day of November 2024.", "fine_print": "The \"close\" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.", "post_id": 29947, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731511654.562738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.7343999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731511654.562738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.7343999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26560000000000006, 0.7343999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.733900161818121 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.5898871216012381, 0.011364900518339544, 0.3660118313347263, 0.11525585627893538, 1.0886780527540525, 0.29095551644889905, 1.0292532289534815, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4113099022665083, 1.030893002561247, 1.1000748513409002, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.22827012898946356, 0.25191033108110095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.064007478133974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -83.00888200974912, "peer_score": 9.511926941370556, "coverage": 0.9976442675237304, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9976442675237304, "spot_peer_score": 3.7424230150043876, "spot_baseline_score": -91.26729482025243, "baseline_archived_score": -83.00888200974912, "peer_archived_score": 9.511926941370556, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.7424230150043876, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -91.26729482025243 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy." }, { "id": 29946, "title": "Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-december-31-2024-will-tech-crunch-report-new-layoffs-at-netflix", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.172839Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.068112Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:16:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29780, "title": "Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.172839Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:17:27.549126Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the launch of this question, Tech Crunch did not have Netflix listed on its tracker as having had any material layoffs in 2024. In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/11/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Netflix has layoffs following the launch of this question and before December 31, 2024. To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on December 31, 2024, and see if Netflix appears for October 2024, November 2024, or December 2024. If Netflix is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \"\n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Netflix. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.", "post_id": 29946, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731511666.184602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35600699811284225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731511666.184602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35600699811284225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6439930018871578, 0.35600699811284225 ], "means": [ 0.35993330092119336 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.5670536722468447, 0.0, 1.4503239917831108, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.9177123825992602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8389489928958105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3289105560569624, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07205665544157025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.18735014556338, "peer_score": 52.11109854619179, "coverage": 0.9966086997809234, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9966086997809234, "spot_peer_score": 27.389742676827176, "spot_baseline_score": 36.51169161271433, "baseline_archived_score": 61.18735014556338, "peer_archived_score": 52.11109854619179, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.389742676827176, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 36.51169161271433 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the launch of this question, Tech Crunch did not have Netflix listed on its tracker as having had any material layoffs in 2024. In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022" }, { "id": 29945, "title": "Will Morgan Wallen win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-morgan-wallen-win-an-award-in-any-of-these-2024-cma-awards-categories", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.160672Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.603223Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29779, "title": "Will Morgan Wallen win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.160672Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T14:23:02.237914Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Morgan Wallen wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Male Vocalist of the Year, Single of the Year, Song of the Year, Music Video of the Year, or Musical Event of the Year, as announced at the 58th Annual Country Music Association Awards. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for November 20, 2024.", "post_id": 29945, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731511678.058511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.609 ], "centers": [ 0.804 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731511678.058511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.609 ], "centers": [ 0.804 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19599999999999995, 0.804 ], "means": [ 0.7428911042146886 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 1.5325522681110344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2691216848159464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8119993811547848, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8885438579531144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4968345085027694, 1.0886780527540525, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 59.62565817548971, "peer_score": 3.639720102272415, "coverage": 0.9956985451612208, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9956985451612208, "spot_peer_score": 10.14217346213505, "spot_baseline_score": 68.52674065168416, "baseline_archived_score": 59.62565817548971, "peer_archived_score": 3.639720102272415, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.14217346213505, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 68.52674065168416 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)" } ] }
