Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1720
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If this does not occur, this queston resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29944, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731511689.147927, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.537 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731511689.147927, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.537 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.43465930623139015 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09534078800711646, 0.0, 1.6765133047881595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7668886590462036, 0.29095551644889905, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[All the Golden Joystick Award 2024 Nominees](https://www.gfinityesports.com/article/all-the-golden-joystick-award-nominees-2024)" }, { "id": 29943, "title": "Will Trump Media & Technology Group (the owner of Truth Social) stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-trump-media-technology-group-the-owner-of-truth-social-stock-continuously-remain-below-its-all-time-high-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:34.791483Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.169557Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29777, "title": "Will Trump Media & Technology Group (the owner of Truth Social) stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:34.791483Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:18:44.616988Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Trump Media & Technology Group remains below $79.38 continuously through December 31, 2024. If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/history/). ", "fine_print": "In case of forward or reverse stock splits, the price will be adjusted and resolved accordingly, based on comparison to the all-time high.", "post_id": 29943, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731511700.696273, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7823693877541572 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.857 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731511700.696273, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7823693877541572 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.857 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.7570164786585937 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)" }, { "id": 29942, "title": "Will Elon Musk or Dana White be chosen for a paid position within the Trump White House before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elon-musk-or-dana-white-be-chosen-for-a-paid-position-within-the-trump-white-house-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": 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} }, "question": { "id": 29776, "title": "Will Elon Musk or Dana White be chosen for a paid position within the Trump White House before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:34.676267Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:19:11.035898Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, 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If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Unpaid roles such as volunteer advisory positions will not count. Any salaried position will count, regardless of whether the person is reported to actually accept the paychecks. This question resolves based on the announcement of him being picked for a role by the incoming Administration, not beginning his duties; therefore requirements such as Senate confirmation will not affect resolution.", "post_id": 29942, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731511712.658266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.2201811472802666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731511712.658266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.2201811472802666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7798188527197334, 0.2201811472802666 ], "means": [ 0.3655159739323218 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 1.538419932216574, 0.0, 0.5423118315640207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.22827012898946356, 0.5608812398816437, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 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"default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29775, "title": "Will the Alta ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on November 22, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:34.414955Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-23T16:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-23T16:57:52.049600Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From the resolution source: \"The Vail snow report for Nov 01 is a 0\" base depth with 0 of 33 lifts open. Please note ski conditions and snowfall at Vail are sourced directly from the ski resort and are only recorded during the official ski season's opening to closing dates.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Alta Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/utah/alta-ski-area/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after November 22, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. 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Please note ski conditions and snowfall at Vail are sourced directly from the ski resort and are only recorded during the official ski season's opening to closing dates.\"" }, { "id": 29940, "title": "Will the cheapest new Tesla Model 3 be listed as under $43,000 on December 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cheapest-new-tesla-model-3-be-listed-as-under-43000-on-december-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:34.206595Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.144468Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T19:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29774, "title": "Will the cheapest new Tesla Model 3 be listed as under $43,000 on December 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:34.206595Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T19:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-30T19:19:32.663962Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of November 11, 2024, this price was $42,490", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 30, 2024, the cheapest Tesla Model 3 for US buyers is offered at the Tesla website for under $43,000. If the price is greater than or equal to $43,000, this question resolves as **No**. On of after December 30, 2024, Metaculus Admins will access the Model 3 design page, currently at [this link](https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#overview). They will click on the \"Cash\" price and uncheck the box to include estimated incentives of $7,500 and 5-year gas savings.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source other than Tesla's official website will be considered. 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"question": { "id": 29744, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T04:48:39.921116Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-17T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-17T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T11:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T17:32:27.773310Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T11:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 11, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for any individual, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If there are no reports of the ICC issuing any arrest warrants during that period, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Summonses to appear will not count. For more information please see the ICC's [How the Court works](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works), especially the following, under *Investigations*:\n\n>After gathering evidence and identifying a suspect, the Prosecution requests ICC judges to issue:\n>1. an arrest warrant: the ICC relies on countries to make arrests and transfer suspects to the ICC; or\n>2. a summons to appear: suspects appear voluntarily (if not, an arrest warrant may be issued).\n\nSecret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before January 1, 2025. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before January 1, 2025, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.", "post_id": 29903, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732206992.717165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732206992.717165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.8822220837938244 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005954525306226569, 0.07331325067154816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3145176947817463, 0.0, 0.16068379644262276, 0.007784236121081673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1019411890162417, 0.09222549710312164, 0.1279124780640235, 0.35115580285832837, 0.024887815310673432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021159747596370834, 0.03267148230367475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11472253092930257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03877020169610887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30155575609455343, 0.0, 0.3657193231829638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.083724180352675 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -21.267045600612395, "peer_score": 0.8276656177770025, "coverage": 0.1460535258791804, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999220082261084, "spot_peer_score": 10.656409854285435, "spot_baseline_score": -139.59286763311394, "baseline_archived_score": -21.267045600612395, "peer_archived_score": 0.8276656177770025, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.656409854285435, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -139.59286763311394 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued." }, { "id": 29902, "title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "short_title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "url_title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "slug": "will-astro-bot-win-the-game-of-the-year-2024-award", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T04:19:29.286135Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T05:54:58.337694Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.037389Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-13T05:54:58.337692Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-11T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-11T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T15:23:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29743, "title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T04:19:29.286259Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-17T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-17T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T15:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T15:24:14.369020Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-11T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-11T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November.\n\n[Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Astro Bot wins the Game of the Year award for 2024 at [The Game Awards](https://thegameawards.com/). If the awards ceremony takes place and Astro Bot does not win Game of the Year, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The Game Awards ceremony is [currently scheduled](https://thegameawards.com/watch) for December 12, 2024. Any delays will still count. However, if the ceremony does not take place before January 1, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**. \n\nIf Astro Bot shares the Game of the Year award it will still count.", "post_id": 29902, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733905589.332106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733905589.332106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.30689268757912147 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4920871871406355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15044316718241518, 0.5787050652104242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15035875300365373, 0.4939101961181519, 0.025043422762740086, 0.12673119260075266, 1.1593592762462361, 0.0, 1.1351546366779899, 0.13816622619390675, 0.0, 0.993328287122746, 0.28570051944328617, 0.5504080675336276, 0.6743195377416064, 0.2263451221037383, 0.06645500596732509, 0.0, 0.5175393827095163, 0.0, 0.0011024176184751514, 0.3736277967477001, 0.0, 1.2654236712490192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6792350590543265, 0.0, 0.9377395971546344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8788826202526011, 1.5885226963260082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492799034882604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08847061033139408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -107.98265108910452, "peer_score": 33.32958775459136, "coverage": 0.9999872614908663, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999872614908663, "spot_peer_score": 8.73620300800291, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "baseline_archived_score": -107.98265108910452, "peer_archived_score": 33.32958775459136, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.73620300800291, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 197, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November.\n\n[Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY." }, { "id": 29901, "title": "Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will North Korea Send Troops to Ukraine Before 2025?", "url_title": "Will North Korea Send Troops to Ukraine Before 2025?", "slug": "will-north-korea-send-troops-to-ukraine-before-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T00:29:40.005486Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T05:49:56.623754Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.602688Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-13T05:49:56.623752Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T12:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29742, "title": "Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T00:29:40.005568Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-17T15:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-17T15:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T12:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T22:30:06.686343Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "North Korea and Russia have significantly strenghened their military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine. In September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [visited Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66810830), meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential military and economic collaboration. In early November 2024, Ukraine [fought](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14le0p4310o) North Korean troops for the first time, while [more recent reports](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/10/europe/russia-north-korea-forces-prepared-kursk-ukraine/index.html) claim that 10,000 [North Korean troops](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army) will join Russian soldiers in an attempt to take back the Ukraine-occupied region of Kursk.\r\n\r\n[Moreover](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/i/151515209/asia)\r\n\r\n> South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600K to 700K tonnes of rice to North Korea, $200M, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.\r\n\r\nHowever, until November 12, 2024, there have been no reports of North Korean troops in Ukrainian soil.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that at least 100 North Korean troops have entered Ukrainian soil before January 1, 2025.\r\n\r\n If no credible reports indicate the simultaneous presence of 100 or more North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "- Ukrainian soil is defined based on the pre-2014 internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.\r\n- This question pertains only to personnel who have been members of any of the five branches of North Korea's military forces, the Korean People's Army.\r\n- This question will resolve based on the best information available as of January 7, 2025.\r\n- For purposes of this question, troops will count as North Korean military personnel if they are identified as such by credible sources. This is true even in the event of edge cases such as them wearing non-North Korean insignia, being under the command of Russian officers, or being deployed as part of multinational units. \r\n- Non-combat roles such as logistical support count as well, as long as the North Korean personnel are present on pre-2014 Ukrainian soil.", "post_id": 29901, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735637589.487432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735637589.487432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008575941864671123 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.516853877100486, 3.8287491439926145, 0.16577836639740004, 0.741304689268395, 0.3614544889050556, 0.12563782442644572, 0.050047971966198035, 0.0013964902613327744, 0.0036464791920768538, 0.014705341890567212, 0.008108648421277223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007745482461618098, 0.0, 0.012027806824740892, 0.004764507471173336, 0.0309623970006842, 0.0007321358620784834, 0.0, 0.02161474301439808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004075565365447296, 0.0, 0.01313726468048236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005409792956936867, 0.0, 0.0016763820783180668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010790073396447676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027314582170858293, 0.0, 0.0009270746381897505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026933773180300467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004178148511023217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00867414512829912 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.23318771726684, "peer_score": 22.259499811408347, "coverage": 0.9973112259273458, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9973112259273458, "spot_peer_score": 24.52232579908637, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 80.23318771726684, "peer_archived_score": 22.259499811408347, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.52232579908637, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 500, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "North Korea and Russia have significantly strenghened their military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine. In September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [visited Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66810830), meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential military and economic collaboration. In early November 2024, Ukraine [fought](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14le0p4310o) North Korean troops for the first time, while [more recent reports](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/10/europe/russia-north-korea-forces-prepared-kursk-ukraine/index.html) claim that 10,000 [North Korean troops](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army) will join Russian soldiers in an attempt to take back the Ukraine-occupied region of Kursk.\r\n\r\n[Moreover](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/i/151515209/asia)\r\n\r\n> South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600K to 700K tonnes of rice to North Korea, $200M, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.\r\n\r\nHowever, until November 12, 2024, there have been no reports of North Korean troops in Ukrainian soil." }, { "id": 29900, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 29741, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T23:23:41.569744Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-17T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-17T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T22:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-04T22:39:31.498960Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies combined. BTC dominance has fluctuated over the years. It reached a low of 38.3% in 2022, but has been steadily rising since, achieving a local peak of 60.0% on November 13, 2024.\n\nThe rise could be attributed to multiple factors. The SEC's [approval](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-gives-green-light-options-listing-spot-bitcoin-etfs-nyse-2024-10-18/) of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 increased accessibility for mainstream investors, drawing significant capital into BTC. Donald Trump's re-election might have further driven the rise in BTC dominance as, according to [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89v1w5lxxqo):\n\n> In the run-up to the election Trump said he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint digital asset-friendly financial regulators - spurring expectations that he would strip back regulations on the crypto industry.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 5 January 2025, [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) reports a Bitcoin dominance value of 63.1% or higher for any single date in November or December 2024.", "fine_print": "- This question is about the daily dominance value and, therefore, resolution will be based on the values that are shown on the graph. To avoid resolving on preliminary values, the most recent value on the graph will not be considered.\n- If CoinMarketCap is unavailable or does not report the relevant data between January 1 and January 5, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 29900, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735585158.43434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735585158.43434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0030449245934983703 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.344522449901783, 1.5192939520148894, 0.16891130366353677, 0.021612403177388988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010154633171455994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0525193690386395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006710788861047596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013954015504436714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018241815415611054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006805670804060742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.36887672648908, "peer_score": 7.36420799945852, "coverage": 0.99999435360085, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99999435360085, "spot_peer_score": -4.643925415317108, "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 85.36887672648908, "peer_archived_score": 7.36420799945852, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.643925415317108, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 551, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies combined. BTC dominance has fluctuated over the years. It reached a low of 38.3% in 2022, but has been steadily rising since, achieving a local peak of 60.0% on November 13, 2024.\n\nThe rise could be attributed to multiple factors. The SEC's [approval](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-gives-green-light-options-listing-spot-bitcoin-etfs-nyse-2024-10-18/) of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 increased accessibility for mainstream investors, drawing significant capital into BTC. Donald Trump's re-election might have further driven the rise in BTC dominance as, according to [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89v1w5lxxqo):\n\n> In the run-up to the election Trump said he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint digital asset-friendly financial regulators - spurring expectations that he would strip back regulations on the crypto industry." }, { "id": 29887, "title": "Will either major party candidate in California’s 22nd Congressional District concede the election before December 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-either-major-party-candidate-in-californias-22nd-congressional-district-concede-the-election-before-december-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.459867Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.765769Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-15T19:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29729, "title": "Will either major party candidate in California’s 22nd Congressional District concede the election before December 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.459867Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-15T19:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-15T19:03:55.561218Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the 2022 midterms, CA-22 was one of the slowest elections to be called, with the Democratic challenger [conceding](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/politics/california-22-valadao-salas/index.html) on November 22, 2022. See also: [Why does it take California so long to count votes?](https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/03/california-election-results-vote-counting/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before December 1, 2024, either the Republican or Democratic candidate concedes the race for California’s 22nd Congressional District, according to credible source reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Subsequent withdrawals of a concession (such as [happened in 2018](https://apnews.com/united-states-house-of-representatives-general-news-house-elections-464da5eba8134d5a93f4504fed811fbc)) will not cause this question to re-resolve.", "post_id": 29887, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731425389.265484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.602 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7041499999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731425389.265484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.602 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7041499999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.398, 0.602 ], "means": [ 0.550357767772606 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9528368743815119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5848426281220769, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7786927681952075, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.8676520897500979, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 1.0266983994102854, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257194070197468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.39831147385979765, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 36.5676133620092, "peer_score": 17.738202620640994, "coverage": 0.9942070422680289, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9942070422680289, "spot_peer_score": 11.608815081283288, "spot_baseline_score": 26.783539209761496, "baseline_archived_score": 36.5676133620092, "peer_archived_score": 17.738202620640994, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.608815081283288, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.783539209761496 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the 2022 midterms, CA-22 was one of the slowest elections to be called, with the Democratic challenger [conceding](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/politics/california-22-valadao-salas/index.html) on November 22, 2022. See also: [Why does it take California so long to count votes?](https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/03/california-election-results-vote-counting/)" }, { "id": 29886, "title": "Will Jelly Roll win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jelly-roll-win-an-award-in-any-of-these-2024-cma-awards-categories", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.169261Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.562725Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29728, "title": "Will Jelly Roll win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.169261Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T14:22:20.793900Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Jelly Roll wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Album of the Year, or Male Vocalist of the Year, as announced at the 58th Annual Country Music Association Awards. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**. 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null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:26:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29727, "title": "Will Texas have 15.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.164320Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:26:18.392213Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Much of Texas is experiencing varying levels of drought at the time of this question. For example: [Moderate drought spreads across East Texas](https://www.cbs19.tv/article/weather/weather-impact/drought-spreads-across-east-texas/501-c803993d-40df-46a1-9cef-e8d741049647)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/texas) lists greater than or equal to 15.0 million Texas residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 15.0 million, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 29885, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731420957.81148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7440000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731420957.81148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7440000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.2559999999999999, 0.7440000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.7135603168696855 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9709756417428488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 1.5259590338814562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 1.0131475064393194, 0.08925379845760197, 1.1910005497285958, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 1.3969048338959735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 54.121511569563275, "peer_score": 11.693320403599008, "coverage": 0.9906047931479083, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9906047931479083, "spot_peer_score": 12.530641305693242, "spot_baseline_score": 57.33745264459446, "baseline_archived_score": 54.121511569563275, "peer_archived_score": 11.693320403599008, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.530641305693242, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 57.33745264459446 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Much of Texas is experiencing varying levels of drought at the time of this question. For example: [Moderate drought spreads across East Texas](https://www.cbs19.tv/article/weather/weather-impact/drought-spreads-across-east-texas/501-c803993d-40df-46a1-9cef-e8d741049647)" }, { "id": 29884, "title": "Before January 1, 2025, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-january-1-2025-will-anthropic-announce-on-the-news-section-of-its-website-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.158899Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.382340Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29726, "title": "Before January 1, 2025, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.158899Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T03:39:46.944190Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In its most recent funding round, Anthropic was valued at $18 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Anthropic, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before January 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://www.anthropic.com/news If there is no such announcement before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of Anthropic's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://www.anthropic.com/news) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on January 1, 2024, this question resolves as No. \n\nAnthropic's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.", "post_id": 29884, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731420966.335317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.10800000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.175 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731420966.335317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.10800000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1382983363475782 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1391344850342058, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.3004396974927213, 0.0, 0.9226740488176148, 1.3254055072366286, 1.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1501685895163756, 0.6896218051583209, 0.7964484483572234, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 1.5513043146505727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.37301684020518, "peer_score": 12.760068244589776, "coverage": 0.9967210546632608, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9967210546632608, "spot_peer_score": 8.067658844752405, "spot_baseline_score": 81.55754288625727, "baseline_archived_score": 80.37301684020518, "peer_archived_score": 12.760068244589776, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.067658844752405, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 81.55754288625727 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In its most recent funding round, Anthropic was valued at $18 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet. " }, { "id": 29883, "title": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through 2024, according to the specified criteria?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-world-remain-normal-through-2024-according-to-the-specified-criteria", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.153401Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.776776Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29725, "title": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through 2024, according to the specified criteria?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.153401Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T03:41:14.654781Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before January 1, 2025:\n\n- The **development of artificial general intelligence**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2025.\n- A **10% reduction in the human population**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2025.\n- Global **GDP increases by 30% or more in one year**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2025.\n- The **discovery of alien technosignatures**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2025.\n- A **worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs** becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2025.\n - **World War III**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2025.\n- A **nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** (meaning this is no longer a \"normal\" world) if one or more of the above Metaculus questions has positively resolved before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29883, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731420974.421543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9387920846689471 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731420974.421543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9387920846689471 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06120791533105285, 0.9387920846689471 ], "means": [ 0.816210815482297 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.39894260152492483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.9134389029481002, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 1.2709450889647806, 0.6896218051583209, 1.9549571529640235, 0.8331016997804591, 0.1836394386094319, 0.8655805159013822, 0.10060271610369056 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.18919679842696, "peer_score": 6.8965184566287245, "coverage": 0.996406230278037, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.996406230278037, "spot_peer_score": 10.832808272847284, "spot_baseline_score": 90.88775830868465, "baseline_archived_score": 92.18919679842696, "peer_archived_score": 6.8965184566287245, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.832808272847284, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 90.88775830868465 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050." }, { "id": 29882, "title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before January 1, 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.143804Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.362454Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29724, "title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before January 1, 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.143804Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:13:57.497561Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \n\nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity.", "resolution_criteria": "This question shall resolve positively if by January 1, 2025, credible media reports state that an individual [laboratory mouse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laboratory_mouse) of species *Mus musculus* has lived for at least 2,500 days.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29882, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731420983.410812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.023333333333333334 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731420983.410812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.023333333333333334 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01896485624451826 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1265062481845773, 5.887069089311047, 0.6110245847907283, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 1.4462274618854951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.14171362594664, "peer_score": 1.3598957981223794, "coverage": 0.995808972928811, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.995808972928811, "spot_peer_score": 1.1751147648228002, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "baseline_archived_score": 98.14171362594664, "peer_archived_score": 1.3598957981223794, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.1751147648228002, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \n\nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity." }, { "id": 29881, "title": "Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before January 1, 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-large-scale-armed-conflict-in-russia-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.834509Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.040769Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T13:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29723, "title": "Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before January 1, 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.834509Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T13:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:16:41.797355Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the [1905 Russian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution).\n\nThe possible defeat of Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War, combined with the severe economic crisis, may trigger a comparable conflict. For example, a violent coup d'état, a civil war, a revolution, an armed secession movement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2025, there is a large-scale armed conflict in Russia, according to credible media reports. For this question, a “a large-scale armed conflict” is a conflict which meets these criteria:\n\n* results in at least 1,000 deaths in Russia\n* has at least 100 participants directly involved in the killings,\n* with the majority of the participants on both sides being Russian citizens.\n\nSome examples of such events from the Russian history include the Russian Revolution, the [Russian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Civil_War), the [First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War) and [Second Chechen Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War). We ignore such events if they happen mostly in Crimea or any other territory occupied by Russia since 2014.", "fine_print": "In case there are several smaller deadly events (e.g. a series of terrorist attacks), and it's unclear if they should be counted together as one conflict, then we use the following additional criterion:\n\nthere should be a page on Wikipedia about the conflict.", "post_id": 29881, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731420995.872823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.047 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.167 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731420995.872823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.047 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.167 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12010137924398105 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.05892591724387544, 0.861389315845429, 1.7503575589309248, 1.096611035686293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3162976971910538, 0.0, 1.0839758874887768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.4058977563636797, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.153865828537011, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 88.2002864970462, "peer_score": 6.506120996680344, "coverage": 0.9871432893392112, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9871432893392112, "spot_peer_score": 2.9862503260811404, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 88.2002864970462, "peer_archived_score": 6.506120996680344, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.9862503260811404, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the [1905 Russian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution).\n\nThe possible defeat of Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War, combined with the severe economic crisis, may trigger a comparable conflict. For example, a violent coup d'état, a civil war, a revolution, an armed secession movement." }, { "id": 29880, "title": "Will George Soros be ranked in the top 400 richest people in the world on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-george-soros-be-ranked-in-the-top-400-richest-people-in-the-world-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.827380Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.490542Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29722, "title": "Will George Soros be ranked in the top 400 richest people in the world on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.827380Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:10:52.233521Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of October 8, 2024, George Soros was ranked 424th on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) George Soros is ranked 400th or better on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). 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