Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1780
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If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for November 20, 2024.", "post_id": 29702, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731079597.999549, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5304 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.725 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731079597.999549, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5304 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.725 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6138778703052831 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7266393194276903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0995021346290215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 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[], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)" }, { "id": 29701, "title": "Will Astro Bot win in any of these categories at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-astro-bot-win-in-any-of-these-categories-at-the-2024-golden-joystick-awards", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.777718Z", "published_at": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.928767Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-22T00:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29563, "title": "Will Astro Bot win in any of these categories at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.777718Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-22T00:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-22T00:08:20.431794Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Voting Is Now Open in the 42nd Golden Joystick Awards](https://www.gamespress.com/Voting-Is-Now-Open-in-the-42nd-Golden-Joystick-Awards)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Astro Bot wins an award at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards for Best Audio Design, Best Soundtract, or Console Game of the Year. If this does not occur, this queston resolves as **No**.\n\n ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29701, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731079615.452052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5231373729725438 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731079615.452052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5231373729725438 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.5942793556940633 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2561885891774373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21109866324959886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Voting Is Now Open in the 42nd Golden Joystick Awards](https://www.gamespress.com/Voting-Is-Now-Open-in-the-42nd-Golden-Joystick-Awards)" }, { "id": 29700, "title": "Will John Thune succeed Mitch McConnell as Republican Leader of the US Senate?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-john-thune-succeed-mitch-mcconnell-as-republican-leader-of-the-us-senate", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.773537Z", "published_at": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.556592Z", 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"open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-13T18:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T18:51:52.249026Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Senate Minority Whip John Thune is widely considered the frontrunner to succeed Mitch McConnell. See e.g., Punchbowl News: [Thune hits the trail for GOP candidates — and his leadership bid](https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/thune-campaigns-for-leadership-bid-in-indiana/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if John Thune is elected Republican leader of the United States Senate before December 1, 2024. 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See also: [Why does it take California so long to count votes?](https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/03/california-election-results-vote-counting/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before December 1, 2024, either the Republican or Democratic candidate concedes the race for California’s 13th Congressional District, according to credible source reporting. 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See also: [Why does it take California so long to count votes?](https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/03/california-election-results-vote-counting/)" }, { "id": 29698, "title": "Will Merck stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-merck-stock-continuously-remain-below-its-all-time-high-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.466534Z", "published_at": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.176888Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29560, "title": "Will Merck stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.466534Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T03:44:17.600295Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Merck remains below $134.63 continuously through December 31, 2024. 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If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 29696, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731079601.514349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8190910586136597 ], "centers": [ 0.85595 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.917 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731079601.514349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8190910586136597 ], "centers": [ 0.85595 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.917 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14405, 0.85595 ], "means": [ 0.8417202311464385 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.451307Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T23:53:05.662204Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Incidents of [civil unrest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States) are not uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots), during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.\n\nMore recently, in 2020, mass civil unrest occurred in the United States [in response to the killing of George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests). 19 people died, more than 14,000 people were arrested, and insured damages were estimated to be $1-2bn.\n\nIn January 2021, the United States Capitol Building [was stormed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) by partisans as Congress was attempting to certify the electoral college result in the 2020 election. Five people died, and dozens of arrests have been made.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that after 5 November 2024 and before 1 January 2025 rioting or civil unrest in the US leads to either:\n- The deaths of at least 10 people due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n- The arrest of at least 1,000 people by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\nThese counts will be cumulative from November 6th, 2024 to December 31st, 2024, inclusive. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest.", "fine_print": "- For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count.\n- Arrests must also be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest.\n- In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admins may wait up to 1 month after the question's closing date to make a determination.", "post_id": 29695, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731079602.066001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.325 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731079602.066001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2896268451932286 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36917303996075373, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 1.0, 0.0, 1.2975390124490582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9857392757575504, 0.0, 0.6960576051643198, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.48911449321829387, 0.0, 0.4589861307484649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.27779395372601, "peer_score": 2.962467978545046, "coverage": 0.9925180619679113, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9925180619679113, "spot_peer_score": 11.68414670103682, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 46.27779395372601, "peer_archived_score": 2.962467978545046, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.68414670103682, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Incidents of [civil unrest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States) are not uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots), during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.\n\nMore recently, in 2020, mass civil unrest occurred in the United States [in response to the killing of George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests). 19 people died, more than 14,000 people were arrested, and insured damages were estimated to be $1-2bn.\n\nIn January 2021, the United States Capitol Building [was stormed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) by partisans as Congress was attempting to certify the electoral college result in the 2020 election. Five people died, and dozens of arrests have been made." }, { "id": 29694, "title": "On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?", "short_title": "On 12/31/24 will 4 US states have Waymo's ride-hailing", "url_title": "On 12/31/24 will 4 US states have Waymo's ride-hailing", "slug": "on-123124-will-4-us-states-have-waymos-ride-hailing", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.440854Z", "published_at": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.610549Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:56:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29556, "title": "On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?", "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.440854Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T00:56:53.320315Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).\n\nWaymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles. Since its inception as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, Waymo’s vehicles have logged over 7 million miles of rider-only trips.\n\nAs of early 2024, Waymo operates its rider-only ride-hailing service in California (San Francisco and Los Angeles) and Arizona (Phoenix), and has announced plans to expand operations to Texas (Austin).\n\nIn late 2023, Waymo published a [report](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/) claiming that its autonomous vehicles have achieved an 85% reduction in the rate of injury-causing compared to national rates for human-operated cars, highlighting the potential of self-driving cars to reduce crashes caused by human error.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the number of US states, including Washington, D.C., in which fully rider-only ride-hailing trips operated by Waymo are available to the general public on December 31.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be Waymo's website, which as of November 6, 2024 includes a [\"Where Can You Go?\"](https://waymo.com/whereyoucango/) page. Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) may also be considered in the event of ambiguity or dispute.", "fine_print": "- \"rider-only\" trip means one in which the only humans in the car are passengers and no human operates the vehicle for the duration of the trip.\n- \"Available to the general public\" means that any member of the public is eligible to use the service without first joining a waitlist or having been granted use of the service as part of a limited testing or early access phase.\n- \"United States\" means the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Therefore the possible outcome range is 0-51.\n- In the event that Waymo's operating status in a given state is ambiguous or disputed, Metaculus admins will resolve the state's status based on the best available information indicating whether, in fact, its autonomous ride-hailing service is publicly available for ride-hailing on December 31, 2024.", "post_id": 29694, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731079602.687648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21899999999999997 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731079602.687648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21899999999999997 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.14752137268654425 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.5794082646169944, 2.4886410263586423, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.6529915075505347, 0.0, 0.13261378041425145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.9462524413216661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.83445069812335, "peer_score": 14.404779219441515, "coverage": 0.9921467068763793, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9921467068763793, "spot_peer_score": 6.316911736816119, "spot_baseline_score": 78.24085649273731, "baseline_archived_score": 81.83445069812335, "peer_archived_score": 14.404779219441515, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.316911736816119, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.24085649273731 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).\n\nWaymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles. Since its inception as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, Waymo’s vehicles have logged over 7 million miles of rider-only trips.\n\nAs of early 2024, Waymo operates its rider-only ride-hailing service in California (San Francisco and Los Angeles) and Arizona (Phoenix), and has announced plans to expand operations to Texas (Austin).\n\nIn late 2023, Waymo published a [report](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/) claiming that its autonomous vehicles have achieved an 85% reduction in the rate of injury-causing compared to national rates for human-operated cars, highlighting the potential of self-driving cars to reduce crashes caused by human error." }, { "id": 29670, "title": "Will a US Bitcoin strategic reserve be announced before 20 January 2029?", "short_title": "Will a US BTC reserve be announced before 20 January 2029?", "url_title": "Will a US BTC reserve be announced before 20 January 2029?", "slug": "will-a-us-btc-reserve-be-announced-before-20-january-2029", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T18:32:54.374414Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T18:46:46.856173Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.896549Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-12T18:46:46.856171Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-06T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T18:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29541, "title": "Will a US Bitcoin strategic reserve be announced before 20 January 2029?", "created_at": "2024-11-06T18:32:54.374519Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T18:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-17T18:42:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-17T18:42:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-06T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-07T09:17:05.332426Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-06T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February 2023, Major Jason P. Lowery released his thesis, [Soft War: A Novel Theory on Power Projection and the National Strategic Significance of Bitcoin](https://archive.org/details/softwar-theory), in which he details the power of bitcoin and proof of work systems as a form of \"electro-cyber security and power projection system\".\n\n[Only a few months later, he was ordered to stop talking publicly about this subject and take the publication down](https://cryptoslate.com/jason-lowreys-softwar-removed-from-circulation-and-mit-library-for-unknown-reasons/). Many assume this demand has been made because the US Military was planning to enact some of Major Lowery's recommandations.\n\nRecently, the President elect, Donald J. Trump, has declared his support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at several occasions and Elon Musk, one of his main supporters, is known for being favorable towards crypto.\n\nThere is bipartisan support in favor of the idea of a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, [which has already been implemented by some states](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/10/02/bipartisan-support-builds-for-strategic-bitcoin-reserve/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 20 January 2029, the U.S. federal government officially announces that a US strategic reserve of Bitcoin has or will be established.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based solely on the content of the announcement. The actual date of establishment, or any subsequent actions related to the reserve, will not affect the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 29670, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741335341.690076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741335341.690076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8013712375983141 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6979982697071185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0049732913477615855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014469949601630264, 0.3928397353210616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009830363534991301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00359802936012828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05964201228778806, 0.6017929126729546, 0.0, 0.18761652401496165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016905416761082872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00092766834175521, 0.0005792631881401083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8610260088424188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6339062682388735, 0.0, 0.0, 1.000587294750958, 0.0, 0.004475714932610364, 0.0025379482175760023, 0.0, 0.012008769289956558, 0.03366485022886151, 0.0, 0.008164152813562774, 0.0, 1.4308518262459822, 0.0, 0.07810739790778357, 0.08906764066001667, 0.015246197439320123, 1.075537667289217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.514004218529161, 0.2110835625116808, 0.06386168475649698, 0.19904515625925434, 0.9525795564603006, 0.0, 0.038231423905594274, 1.2658245908897772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00896578035381357, 1.9679750061776, 0.051918686272767404, 1.072187756142303, 0.0, 5.150913312146801 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 3.120795850187113, "peer_score": 1.4583277020117442, "coverage": 0.07256464145951694, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9904075434107015, "spot_peer_score": 13.46005978840562, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 3.120795850187113, "peer_archived_score": 1.4583277020117442, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.46005978840562, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 188, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February 2023, Major Jason P. Lowery released his thesis, [Soft War: A Novel Theory on Power Projection and the National Strategic Significance of Bitcoin](https://archive.org/details/softwar-theory), in which he details the power of bitcoin and proof of work systems as a form of \"electro-cyber security and power projection system\".\n\n[Only a few months later, he was ordered to stop talking publicly about this subject and take the publication down](https://cryptoslate.com/jason-lowreys-softwar-removed-from-circulation-and-mit-library-for-unknown-reasons/). Many assume this demand has been made because the US Military was planning to enact some of Major Lowery's recommandations.\n\nRecently, the President elect, Donald J. Trump, has declared his support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at several occasions and Elon Musk, one of his main supporters, is known for being favorable towards crypto.\n\nThere is bipartisan support in favor of the idea of a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, [which has already been implemented by some states](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/10/02/bipartisan-support-builds-for-strategic-bitcoin-reserve/)." }, { "id": 29640, "title": "Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-december-31-2024-will-tech-crunch-report-new-layoffs-at-microsoft", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:48.077092Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.566675Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 74, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29513, "title": "Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:48.077092Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:20:53.420369Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Despite its financial health, as a large organizations with its hands in many pies, Microsoft frequently engages in layoffs, most recently in September 2024. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/11/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Microsoft has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024. To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on December 31, 2024 and see if Microsoft appears for October 2024, November 2024, or December 2024. If Microsoft is not listed, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"\"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\"\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \"\n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Microsoft. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. 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" }, { "id": 29639, "title": "Before January 1, 2025, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-january-1-2025-will-stripe-announce-on-the-news-section-of-its-website-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.918478Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.111144Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29512, "title": "Before January 1, 2025, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.918478Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:22:11.391303Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Stripe, which reported processing a full 1% of global GPD in its most recent [annual letter](https://stripe.com/annual-updates/2023), has long been speculated to be planning an IPO. In February 2024, it announced that its employees could cash out their privately-held shares. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Stripe, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before January 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://stripe.com/newsroom/news If there is no such announcement before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of Stripe's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://stripe.com/newsroom/news) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on January 1, 2025, this question resolves as No. \n\nStripe's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.", "post_id": 29639, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730991693.287632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.2002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.385 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730991693.287632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.2002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.385 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7998000000000001, 0.2002 ], "means": [ 0.2642606824099695 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.844622286161405, 1.2696529383364543, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0068416790424992, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5636486352521444, 0.24017638092154792, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748312226056533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.66299565149588, "peer_score": 40.39406090199141, "coverage": 0.9912290158564292, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9912290158564292, "spot_peer_score": 30.599928963731195, "spot_baseline_score": 67.771118626068, "baseline_archived_score": 70.66299565149588, "peer_archived_score": 40.39406090199141, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.599928963731195, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.771118626068 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Stripe, which reported processing a full 1% of global GPD in its most recent [annual letter](https://stripe.com/annual-updates/2023), has long been speculated to be planning an IPO. In February 2024, it announced that its employees could cash out their privately-held shares. " }, { "id": 29638, "title": "Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-armed-conflicts-between-the-republic-of-china-taiwan-and-the-peoples-republic-of-china-prc-lead-to-at-least-100-deaths-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.914667Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.650858Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29511, "title": "Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.914667Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:15:45.712538Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the [Republic of China (Taiwan)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news [recently claimed](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386) that the threat of China invading Taiwan is \"growing every day\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2025, either of the following occur:\n\n* There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n* There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by multiple years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2024.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise.\n\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29638, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730988956.97996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06580198546898043 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.127 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730988956.97996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06580198546898043 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.127 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9341980145310196, 0.06580198546898043 ], "means": [ 0.10260169660324112 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.6091953192457651, 0.0, 1.0988717875322394, 2.3967893953617203, 0.7586143445231218, 0.1405470336200478, 1.0036604767902044, 0.0, 0.8342980490778236, 0.010381142261586365, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2593320515604737, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 84.53354831168244, "peer_score": 13.688784629617928, "coverage": 0.9908163306834521, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9908163306834521, "spot_peer_score": 13.550909627231116, "spot_baseline_score": 90.18002840665265, "baseline_archived_score": 84.53354831168244, "peer_archived_score": 13.688784629617928, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.550909627231116, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 90.18002840665265 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the [Republic of China (Taiwan)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news [recently claimed](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386) that the threat of China invading Taiwan is \"growing every day\"." }, { "id": 29637, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-international-criminal-court-bring-charges-against-benjamin-netanyahu-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.907702Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.012997Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T12:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29510, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.907702Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T12:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-30T12:47:31.424346Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a [music festival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re%27im_music_festival_massacre), and over 200 hostages were abducted and taken into the Gaza Strip.\n\nThe next day on October 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war. Israel responded by bombing Gaza dropping 6,000 bombs in the first 6 days, and then a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in late October. \n\nThe United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has [accused both sides of war crimes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-rights-chief-says-war-crimes-committed-both-sides-israel-hamas-conflict-2023-11-08/#:~:text=Israel%20has%20bombarded%20Gaza%20unrelentingly,including%20many%20women%20and%20children.).\n\n>CAIRO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Wednesday war crimes had been committed by both Israel and Hamas in the conflict that erupted just over a month ago.\n\n>\"The atrocities perpetrated by Palestinian armed groups on 7 October were heinous, they were war crimes - as is the continued holding of hostages,\" Volker Turk said at the Rafah crossing in Egypt on the border with Gaza.\n\n>\"The collective punishment by Israel of Palestinian civilians is also a war crime, as is unlawful forcible evacuation of civilians,\" he added.\n\nThe [International Criminal Court](https://www.icc-cpi.int/), headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, is an independent judicial institution empowered to prosecute individuals for international crimes, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It is distinct from the United Nations and does not possess universal jurisdiction, relying instead on the ratification of the [Rome Statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rome_Statute) by individual states, which confers the Court's jurisdiction. Israel is not a member state of the ICC, but the ICC's top prosecutor has [claimed jurisdiction](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-attack-would-fall-under-jurisdiction-war-crimes-court-prosecutor-2023-10-12/#:~:text=THE%20HAGUE%2C%20Netherlands%2C%20Oct%2012,prosecutor%20told%20Reuters%20on%20Thursday.) over any war crimes carrier out in the Gaza conflict, [writing](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/10/law-israel-hamas-international-criminal-court-icc)\n\n> My office has ongoing jurisdiction in relation to any alleged crimes committed on the territory of the State of Palestine by any party. This includes jurisdiction over current events in Gaza and in the West Bank.\n\n> Israel has clear obligations in relation to its war with Hamas: not just moral obligations, but legal obligations that it has to comply with the laws of armed conflict. These laws are clearly outlined in the Rome statute and the Geneva conventions.\n\nOn November 16, 2023, South Africa [referred Israel to the ICC](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africa-refers-israel-icc-gaza-attacks-pressure-104937581). South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said:\n\n> “As South Africa we have accordingly, together with many other countries across the world, referred this whole Israeli government action to the International Criminal Court,\" Ramaphosa said Wednesday during a state visit to Qatar.\n\n> “We have put through a referral because we believe that war crimes are being committed there. And of course we do not condone the actions that were taken by Hamas earlier, but similarly we condemn the actions that are currently underway and believe that they warrant an investigation by the ICC,” he added.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2025, the International Criminal Court brings charges against Benjamin Netanyahu.\n\nPer the [Rome Statute](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/RS-Eng.pdf)—the founding statute of the ICC—the court may bring charges within the following [categories](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works):\n\n- Genocide\n- Crimes against humanity\n- War crimes\n- Crimes of aggression\n- Offences against the administration of justice\n\nThe ICC announcing either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29637, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730988965.409278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.317 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42642406883819967 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730988965.409278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.317 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42642406883819967 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.683, 0.317 ], "means": [ 0.31752900729240385 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0839758874887769, 0.3857521552669111, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.2695393015506253, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5155929673379014, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6394819866585421, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2990062840141402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -88.07052716831201, "peer_score": 44.97268577869863, "coverage": 0.9905454724420001, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9905454724420001, "spot_peer_score": 54.51245995067832, "spot_baseline_score": -65.74452545226798, "baseline_archived_score": -88.07052716831201, "peer_archived_score": 44.97268577869863, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 54.51245995067832, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -65.74452545226798 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a [music festival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re%27im_music_festival_massacre), and over 200 hostages were abducted and taken into the Gaza Strip.\n\nThe next day on October 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war. Israel responded by bombing Gaza dropping 6,000 bombs in the first 6 days, and then a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in late October. \n\nThe United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has [accused both sides of war crimes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-rights-chief-says-war-crimes-committed-both-sides-israel-hamas-conflict-2023-11-08/#:~:text=Israel%20has%20bombarded%20Gaza%20unrelentingly,including%20many%20women%20and%20children.).\n\n>CAIRO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Wednesday war crimes had been committed by both Israel and Hamas in the conflict that erupted just over a month ago.\n\n>\"The atrocities perpetrated by Palestinian armed groups on 7 October were heinous, they were war crimes - as is the continued holding of hostages,\" Volker Turk said at the Rafah crossing in Egypt on the border with Gaza.\n\n>\"The collective punishment by Israel of Palestinian civilians is also a war crime, as is unlawful forcible evacuation of civilians,\" he added.\n\nThe [International Criminal Court](https://www.icc-cpi.int/), headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, is an independent judicial institution empowered to prosecute individuals for international crimes, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It is distinct from the United Nations and does not possess universal jurisdiction, relying instead on the ratification of the [Rome Statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rome_Statute) by individual states, which confers the Court's jurisdiction. Israel is not a member state of the ICC, but the ICC's top prosecutor has [claimed jurisdiction](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-attack-would-fall-under-jurisdiction-war-crimes-court-prosecutor-2023-10-12/#:~:text=THE%20HAGUE%2C%20Netherlands%2C%20Oct%2012,prosecutor%20told%20Reuters%20on%20Thursday.) over any war crimes carrier out in the Gaza conflict, [writing](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/10/law-israel-hamas-international-criminal-court-icc)\n\n> My office has ongoing jurisdiction in relation to any alleged crimes committed on the territory of the State of Palestine by any party. This includes jurisdiction over current events in Gaza and in the West Bank.\n\n> Israel has clear obligations in relation to its war with Hamas: not just moral obligations, but legal obligations that it has to comply with the laws of armed conflict. These laws are clearly outlined in the Rome statute and the Geneva conventions.\n\nOn November 16, 2023, South Africa [referred Israel to the ICC](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africa-refers-israel-icc-gaza-attacks-pressure-104937581). South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said:\n\n> “As South Africa we have accordingly, together with many other countries across the world, referred this whole Israeli government action to the International Criminal Court,\" Ramaphosa said Wednesday during a state visit to Qatar.\n\n> “We have put through a referral because we believe that war crimes are being committed there. And of course we do not condone the actions that were taken by Hamas earlier, but similarly we condemn the actions that are currently underway and believe that they warrant an investigation by the ICC,” he added." }, { "id": 29636, "title": "Before December 1, 2024, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-december-1-2024-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.900704Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.886586Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T22:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29509, "title": "Before December 1, 2024, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.900704Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T22:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-01T22:16:42.955458Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html).", "resolution_criteria": "As AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\n\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29636, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730988973.560537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11256995436419892 ], "centers": [ 0.2306 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.683 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730988973.560537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11256995436419892 ], "centers": [ 0.2306 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.683 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7694, 0.2306 ], "means": [ 0.36021251486255296 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.5667911627135067, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.8163859885354425, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.2947099022638999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9553918929101012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13238986393323063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.6615196705193762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.396594447594094 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html)." }, { "id": 29635, "title": "Will Kalshi outrank Coinbase in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kalshi-outrank-coinbase-in-the-top-free-finance-apps-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.892597Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.344643Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29508, "title": "Will Kalshi outrank Coinbase in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.892597Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T00:39:51.845941Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election. A day later, Coinbase had again taken the lead over the Kalshi app, so this question looks at whether the initial momentum continues or fades. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2024, according to the Apple App Store at [this link](https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone/finance-apps/6015?chart=top-free), on or after December 31, 2024 Kalshi has a higher rank than Coinbase when accessed by Metaculus Admins. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 29635, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730988983.588675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2696 ], "centers": [ 0.3522362400800207 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730988983.588675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2696 ], "centers": [ 0.3522362400800207 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6477637599199793, 0.3522362400800207 ], "means": [ 0.4267993029184809 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7751255836549243, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0188863119459641, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8808711198511896, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.9627476505578929, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.6338233183670307, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1933008645182623, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9634090346631489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 28.195409154368566, "peer_score": 11.782617820870216, "coverage": 0.9899137999641672, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9899137999641672, "spot_peer_score": 20.018317933939837, "spot_baseline_score": 37.353966184370755, "baseline_archived_score": 28.195409154368566, "peer_archived_score": 11.782617820870216, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.018317933939837, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.353966184370755 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election. A day later, Coinbase had again taken the lead over the Kalshi app, so this question looks at whether the initial momentum continues or fades. " }, { "id": 29634, "title": "Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-restrict-access-outside-the-us-to-some-apis-to-generative-ai-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.774263Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.399290Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29507, "title": "Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.774263Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T23:50:59.785852Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not restrict API or browser access to any Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 (ChatGPT) or Google Bard. As the capabilities of such systems grow, and users learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to enrich uranium or create Deep Fakes), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to restrict usage to those that are verified to be in the US.\n\nA similar regime exists for Digital Rights Management for music & movies - access to music on Spotify or shows on Netflix or Prime Video may depend on your country of origin. (And people regularly use VPNs to pretend to be from some other place to access this content.) Copyrights and trade agreements more generally often have provisions for various countries, and some countries like China ban access to entire systems via firewalls.\n\nThis question asks about APIs, not browser or app usage, because APIs are the most flexible way to use large AI systems. (In April 2023, [Italy banned and then unbanned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/28/23702883/chatgpt-italy-ban-lifted-gpdp-data-protection-age-verification) ChatGPT's interface but not the API, which was decried as ineffectual.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if, by Dec 31 2024, US law requires at least some powerful generative AI systems to restrict API access to only people in the US, and NO otherwise.\n", "fine_print": "* \"Powerful generative AI systems\" refers to AI that can solve a wide variety of tasks, such as GPT-4, and DALLE-2. Systems that translate, do text -> audio or audio -> text, summarize, search, etc. will not count as \"generative\". If unclear, admins will determine \"powerful\" by whether the AI is known to frequently generate things that typically bother governments, such as Deep Fakes or instructions to build weapons.\n\n* \"Restrict\" here will be interpreted broadly. It could be by requiring AI owners to check IPs, like with DRM; it could be by requiring people to verify their identity to get API access tokens, like with KYC. Doesn't matter how easy it is to circumvent such restrictions such as via VPN.\n\n* \"Only people in the US\" will be interpreted broadly, it may include Americans who are abroad, or include non-permanent residents who are visiting, or require some verification only Americans can get like Social Security numbers.", "post_id": 29634, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730988992.186753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.177 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.294 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730988992.186753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.177 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.294 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.823, 0.177 ], "means": [ 0.18491163080775772 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.3752513947953817, 0.4927265728301974, 0.0, 0.8696222370219814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.11525585627893538, 1.9023073523572531, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.526181433922069, 0.13357075254608086, 1.12098493674176, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.04082864168525593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 1.4179609586114346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.88576461718041, "peer_score": 5.134092634278972, "coverage": 0.9896487469226121, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9896487469226121, "spot_peer_score": 1.8550674062442987, "spot_baseline_score": 71.89643357595385, "baseline_archived_score": 76.88576461718041, "peer_archived_score": 5.134092634278972, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.8550674062442987, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.89643357595385 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not restrict API or browser access to any Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 (ChatGPT) or Google Bard. As the capabilities of such systems grow, and users learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to enrich uranium or create Deep Fakes), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to restrict usage to those that are verified to be in the US.\n\nA similar regime exists for Digital Rights Management for music & movies - access to music on Spotify or shows on Netflix or Prime Video may depend on your country of origin. (And people regularly use VPNs to pretend to be from some other place to access this content.) Copyrights and trade agreements more generally often have provisions for various countries, and some countries like China ban access to entire systems via firewalls.\n\nThis question asks about APIs, not browser or app usage, because APIs are the most flexible way to use large AI systems. (In April 2023, [Italy banned and then unbanned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/28/23702883/chatgpt-italy-ban-lifted-gpdp-data-protection-age-verification) ChatGPT's interface but not the API, which was decried as ineffectual.)" }, { "id": 29633, "title": "Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on November 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-openais-o1-remain-the-top-llm-in-all-categories-of-chatbot-arena-on-november-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.767568Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.432030Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T23:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29506, "title": "Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on November 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.767568Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T23:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-01T23:14:11.615341Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) (previously hosted on <https://lmsys.org/>) is a [benchmarking platform](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) for large language models (LLMs). It uses an [Elo rating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system) similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Besides general rankings, Chatbot Arena has added various more narrow categories, such as Hard Prompts, Instruction Following, or Math.\n\nIn September 12, 2024, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/o1/) o1, a series of models [trained](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) to use chain of thought to solve complex problems. According to OpenAI, o1 models perform significantly better in math and coding competitions, among other domains. As of October 4, 2024, o1-preview is ranked #1 in all Chatbot Arena categories.\n\nFor further context please see: \n\n- [Chatbot Arena: New models & Elo system update](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-12-07-leaderboard/)\n- [Does style matter? Disentangling style and substance in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-08-28-style-control/)\n- [Introducing Hard Prompts Category in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-05-17-category-hard/)", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves as **Yes** if a single o1 model has the same or higher rank than all non-o1 models in all of the following 9 categories on [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/), on November 30, 2024:\n\n- Overall\n- Overall w/ Style Control\n- Hard Prompts (Overall)\n- Hard Prompts (Overall) w/ Style Control\n- Instruction Following\n- Coding\n- Math\n- Multi-turn\n- Longer Query\n\nIf all o1 models have at least one category in which they are worse than a non-o1 model, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "- For the purposes of this question, a model having no rank in a category means it is worse than all models that have a rank.\n- Other models also being ranked 1 do not affect resolution, as long as a single o1 model is also ranked 1.\n- An OpenAI model counts as an o1 model if it contains \"o1\" in its name on Chatbot Arena.\n- Any categories that are no longer available on Chatbot Arena will not affect resolution, as long as they are fewer than 4. If at least 4 of the aforementioned 9 categories are not available, this question will be **annulled**.\n- Any categories that are renamed but have the same methodology will be considered equivalent for purposes of this question. \n- As of October 4, 2024, the relevant ranks are presented in both the Overview tab and in the Arena tab, by selecting the relevant category and potentially applying the required filter.", "post_id": 29633, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730992995.163562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.633 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7655000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730992995.163562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.633 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7655000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.367, 0.633 ], "means": [ 0.6235784947033923 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1792089906998804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5211633079961315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.825776577380518, 0.8331016997804591, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.08152789174706276, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 38.92194055514826, "peer_score": 8.867455992466825, "coverage": 0.9893127058805139, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9893127058805139, "spot_peer_score": 7.730801167884564, "spot_baseline_score": 34.027740476625425, "baseline_archived_score": 38.92194055514826, "peer_archived_score": 8.867455992466825, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.730801167884564, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 34.027740476625425 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) (previously hosted on <https://lmsys.org/>) is a [benchmarking platform](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) for large language models (LLMs). It uses an [Elo rating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system) similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Besides general rankings, Chatbot Arena has added various more narrow categories, such as Hard Prompts, Instruction Following, or Math.\n\nIn September 12, 2024, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/o1/) o1, a series of models [trained](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) to use chain of thought to solve complex problems. According to OpenAI, o1 models perform significantly better in math and coding competitions, among other domains. As of October 4, 2024, o1-preview is ranked #1 in all Chatbot Arena categories.\n\nFor further context please see: \n\n- [Chatbot Arena: New models & Elo system update](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-12-07-leaderboard/)\n- [Does style matter? Disentangling style and substance in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-08-28-style-control/)\n- [Introducing Hard Prompts Category in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-05-17-category-hard/)" }, { "id": 29632, "title": "Will Mike Tyson have a public boxing match before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-mike-tyson-have-a-public-boxing-match-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.760888Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.184085Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T12:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29505, "title": "Will Mike Tyson have a public boxing match before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.760888Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T12:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-17T12:49:35.450109Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Mike Tyson is scheduled to box against Jake Paul on November 15, 2024. However, it has previously been postponed. For more information please see [Wikipedia Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Paul_vs._Mike_Tyson)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to credible sources Mike Tyson has a public boxing match before January 1, 2025. If there are no such reports that this has occured, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29632, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730993032.33442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.644 ], "centers": [ 0.813 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730993032.33442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.644 ], "centers": [ 0.813 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18700000000000006, 0.813 ], "means": [ 0.7000175434581304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6796124580803228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.8703961694503004, 0.5388258452186474, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0898204888317844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.5482739890115875, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.865326963027923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.35148317590848, "peer_score": 17.388036218859448, "coverage": 0.988987342869794, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.988987342869794, "spot_peer_score": 22.599619214140553, "spot_baseline_score": 70.13272574129405, "baseline_archived_score": 73.35148317590848, "peer_archived_score": 17.388036218859448, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.599619214140553, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 70.13272574129405 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, Mike Tyson is scheduled to box against Jake Paul on November 15, 2024. However, it has previously been postponed. For more information please see [Wikipedia Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Paul_vs._Mike_Tyson)" }, { "id": 29631, "title": "Will Atlético Mineiro win the 2024 Copa Libertadores?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-atletico-mineiro-win-the-2024-copa-libertadores", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.756806Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.441416Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-02T14:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29504, "title": "Will Atlético Mineiro win the 2024 Copa Libertadores?", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.756806Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-02T14:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-02T14:40:47.399583Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Copa Libertadores is South America's top-tier association football championship; 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