Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=180
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This decreased the Coalition's seat share in the House of Representatives, while increasing the ALP's. In the same [count](https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-31496-NAT.htm \"count\"), the Liberal Party decreased it's FPVs, and the National Party increased it's FPVs, leading to dramatic losses for the Liberal Party while the National Party is down only 1 seat from 2022.\n\nIn every election from 2016 to 2025, the Liberal Party has lost more FPVs and more seats than the National Party.\n\nThis creates an interesting question of if the Nationals may eventually have more seats than the Liberals in the House of Representatives, even if the Coalition shrinks in seats overall, which would make them the senior partner to the Liberal-National Coalition.", "resolution_criteria": "If the National Party of Australia wins more seats than the Liberal Party of Australia in the House of Representatives this question will resolve as **Yes.**\n\nIf this does not occur before 2035, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question will consider MPs who sit with either party as a seat for the respective party, even if they run under another party such as the Queensland Liberal National Party.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based upon election results as confirmed by the [Australian Electoral Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Electoral_Commission \"Australian Electoral Commission\").\n\nThis question considers any federal election for the House of Representatives before 2035, be it a normal scheduled one, or a snap election.\n\nA tie will not be sufficient to resolve this question.\n\nIf an MP switches party, such as becoming an independent, or a QLNP MP swapping party they sit with, that will not impact this question, only the initial makeup will qualify.\n\nName changes, such as the renaming of the \"National Country Party\" to \"National Party of Australia\" will not impact this question.", "post_id": 37689, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751133897.051866, "end_time": 1780756170.099, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751133897.051866, "end_time": 1780756170.099, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.34914386381238555 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.7136871632468946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[In the recent Australian federal election](https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-31496.htm), [the Liberal–National Coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_\\(Australia\\) \"the Liberal–National Coalition\") faced an electoral defeat, accompanied by a [landslide victory](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9djze015xlo \"landslide victory\") for the Australian Labor Party. This decreased the Coalition's seat share in the House of Representatives, while increasing the ALP's. In the same [count](https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-31496-NAT.htm \"count\"), the Liberal Party decreased it's FPVs, and the National Party increased it's FPVs, leading to dramatic losses for the Liberal Party while the National Party is down only 1 seat from 2022.\n\nIn every election from 2016 to 2025, the Liberal Party has lost more FPVs and more seats than the National Party.\n\nThis creates an interesting question of if the Nationals may eventually have more seats than the Liberals in the House of Representatives, even if the Coalition shrinks in seats overall, which would make them the senior partner to the Liberal-National Coalition." }, { "id": 37687, "title": "Will Ghana sign into law \"The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values\" bill before 2026?", "short_title": "Ghana anti-LGBTQ bill signed into law before 2026?", "url_title": "Ghana anti-LGBTQ bill signed into law before 2026?", "slug": "ghana-anti-lgbtq-bill-signed-into-law-before-2026", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:54:38.580756Z", "published_at": "2025-05-28T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:37.561806Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-28T02:27:48.834377Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-30T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37040, "title": "Will Ghana sign into law \"The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values\" bill before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:54:38.581249Z", "open_time": "2025-05-30T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-07T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values bill - or, more simply, the Ghanaian anti-LGBTQ bill - is a piece of Ghanian legislation which aims to introduce restrictions on LGBTQ persons, essentially making it illegal to identify as any sexual orientation other than heterosexual.\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghanaian_anti-LGBTQ_bill#Domestic_reactions), it was introduced in June 2021:\n\n> [Speaker of the Parliament of Ghana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_Parliament_of_Ghana \"Speaker of the Parliament of Ghana\") [Alban Bagbin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alban_Bagbin \"Alban Bagbin\") stated that LGBT+ rights \"should not be encouraged or accepted by our society\" and that \"urgent actions are being taken to pass a law to eventually nip the activities of \\[LGBTQ] groups in the bud.\"\n\nFrom then on, the bill successfully went through three 'readings', as well as several committee hearings. However, then President, Nana Akufo-Addo, failed to sign the bill into law, latterly refusing to do so until two Supreme Court cases challenging the legislation were concluded.\n\nUpon passing the Presidency to current President John Mahama, the bill expired, but the expiry was short lived, and those sponsoring the bill revived it with a renewed legal basis in light of both Supreme Court cases being [unanimously dismissed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crrw2r8epw8o#:~:text=Ghana's%20Supreme%20Court%20has%20unanimously,forming%20or%20funding%20LGBT%20groups.):\n\n> A bill that would make it illegal to be anything but heterosexual in Ghana has been reintroduced in parliament with stronger backing than it got the last time lawmakers tried to get it passed into law.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> A parliamentary committee is expected to start its public hearings on the bill’s contents after it resumes from recess in May, said George, who’s also minister of communications in Ghana’s new cabinet.\n\n###### Bloomberg: [Ghana Revives Anti-LGBTQ Bill in Second Attempt to Make It Law](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/ghana-revives-anti-lgbtq-bill-in-second-attempt-to-make-it-law)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, Ghana signs into law the Ghanaian anti-LGBTQ bill (otherwise known as *\"The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values\"* and *\"Human Sexual Rights and Family Values Bill\"*).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37687, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750294926.812535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750294926.812535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5125372096188546 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values bill - or, more simply, the Ghanaian anti-LGBTQ bill - is a piece of Ghanian legislation which aims to introduce restrictions on LGBTQ persons, essentially making it illegal to identify as any sexual orientation other than heterosexual.\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghanaian_anti-LGBTQ_bill#Domestic_reactions), it was introduced in June 2021:\n\n> [Speaker of the Parliament of Ghana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_Parliament_of_Ghana \"Speaker of the Parliament of Ghana\") [Alban Bagbin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alban_Bagbin \"Alban Bagbin\") stated that LGBT+ rights \"should not be encouraged or accepted by our society\" and that \"urgent actions are being taken to pass a law to eventually nip the activities of \\[LGBTQ] groups in the bud.\"\n\nFrom then on, the bill successfully went through three 'readings', as well as several committee hearings. However, then President, Nana Akufo-Addo, failed to sign the bill into law, latterly refusing to do so until two Supreme Court cases challenging the legislation were concluded.\n\nUpon passing the Presidency to current President John Mahama, the bill expired, but the expiry was short lived, and those sponsoring the bill revived it with a renewed legal basis in light of both Supreme Court cases being [unanimously dismissed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crrw2r8epw8o#:~:text=Ghana's%20Supreme%20Court%20has%20unanimously,forming%20or%20funding%20LGBT%20groups.):\n\n> A bill that would make it illegal to be anything but heterosexual in Ghana has been reintroduced in parliament with stronger backing than it got the last time lawmakers tried to get it passed into law.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> A parliamentary committee is expected to start its public hearings on the bill’s contents after it resumes from recess in May, said George, who’s also minister of communications in Ghana’s new cabinet.\n\n###### Bloomberg: [Ghana Revives Anti-LGBTQ Bill in Second Attempt to Make It Law](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/ghana-revives-anti-lgbtq-bill-in-second-attempt-to-make-it-law)" }, { "id": 37664, "title": "Will Claude 4 be available to the general public before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-claude-4-be-available-to-the-general-public-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.601532Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:40:52.756231Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37017, "title": "Will Claude 4 be available to the general public before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.601532Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-16T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-16T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T23:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-19T23:06:09.524028Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "PromptLayer: [Everything we know: Claude 4](https://blog.promptlayer.com/claude-4/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a member of the general public can access Anthropic's Claude 4 model without first joining a waitlist or participating in an early access or testing phase. If Anthropic does not release Claude 4 before July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The resolution will rely on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), including that it may rely on the ability of Metaculus employees to access Claude 4. \"Access\" may be via API, the Anthropic website, or any other method that allows interaction with Claude 4. Models that do not include both \"Claude\" and \"4\" in the name will not be considered for resolution of this question.", "post_id": 37664, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747423824.233848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.29702052253190153 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747423824.233848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.29702052253190153 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7029794774680984, 0.29702052253190153 ], "means": [ 0.29956351537230747 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07812423256640215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36530671002920095, 0.7415185859076825, 0.17672342147353706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12385827512205734, 2.7928424338082993, 0.3017051033688969, 0.0, 0.02846422899932325, 0.5956380251215266, 0.6937795430318277, 0.0, 0.062047323239435744, 0.0, 0.0, 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"2025-05-16T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-17T13:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-17T13:26:48.937758Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The most recent signatory was Bangladesh, on April 8, 2025. There are 54 signatories at the time of this question: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Panama, Peru, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. 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There are 54 signatories at the time of this question: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Panama, Peru, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. 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11.799928811389794, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Serbia could face snap elections as PM’s resignation confirmed](https://tvpworld.com/85681783/serbia-could-face-snap-elections-as-pms-resignation-confirmed-)" }, { "id": 37644, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Anthropic announce that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-july-1-2025-will-anthropic-announce-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], 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"2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T18:15:34.752115Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In its most recent funding talks, Anthropic [floated](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-rival-anthropic-has-floated-40-billion-valuation-in-early-talks-about-new-funding) a valuation of $40 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Anthropic, Inc., announces before July 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) The company filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [News](https://www.anthropic.com/news) section of its website. 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Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet." }, { "id": 37643, "title": "Will the Project 2025 Tracker spreadsheet have the objective of terminating the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program marked as complete before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-project-2025-tracker-spreadsheet-have-the-objective-of-terminating-the-public-service-loan-forgiveness-program-marked-as-complete-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.584049Z", "published_at": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:43.046460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36996, "title": "Will the Project 2025 Tracker spreadsheet have the objective of terminating the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program marked as complete before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.584049Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T12:58:41.312863Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, the objective was marked as \"in progress.\" The 2025 Tracker is a project of the Keep_Track subreddit and is explained [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/1ii7tbr/project_2025_tracker_is_now_live/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Project 2025 objective to \"terminate the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program\" is marked as complete according to [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QGG6wNHna-1tt91yXNkOauAJJ7snobFjfEnmxlmzhl4/edit?gid=0#gid=0) before July 1, 2025. 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"visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36995, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.579075Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T13:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T14:03:26.421233Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, 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