Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=180
{ "count": 5885, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=200", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=160", "results": [ { "id": 39155, "title": "By 2029, will majority-Black and majority-White schools in Escambia County receive roughly equal funding per student?", "short_title": "Equal School Funding in Escambia by 2029?", "url_title": "Equal School Funding in Escambia by 2029?", "slug": "equal-school-funding-in-escambia-by-2029", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:56:19.362014Z", "published_at": "2025-08-14T23:56:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.999491Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-14T23:56:42.677188Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-14T23:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38498, "title": "By 2029, will majority-Black and majority-White schools in Escambia County receive roughly equal funding per student?", "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:56:19.362474Z", "open_time": "2025-08-14T23:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-14T23:58:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-14T23:58:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson's friendship](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) during school integration reminds us that equity in education has been a decades-long struggle in Escambia County. While their story shows the power of integrated sports programs to build bridges, underlying resource inequities persist.\r\n\r\n**The Historical Context**\r\n\r\nEscambia County has been at the forefront of Florida's school funding battles. In 1979, the [Escambia County School Board sued Florida's Department of Education](https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/funding-floridas-k-12-public-schools-inadequacy-breeds-inequity) (Gindl v. Department of Education), arguing that discretionary millage levies created unequal effects on school finances that violated equal protection clauses. This case highlighted how \"property-poor\" districts face significant resource disadvantages - a problem that continues today.\r\n\r\n**Current Demographics and Disparities**\r\n\r\nEscambia County School District serves approximately 37,851 students with the following demographics:\r\n- 44.9% White students\r\n- 34.3% Black students \r\n- 9.8% Hispanic students\r\n- 8% multiracial students\r\n\r\nWhile the district overall spends $10,878 per student according to [U.S. News data](https://www.usnews.com/education/k12/florida/districts/escambia-104710), this average masks significant within-district disparities. The district has [closed or consolidated 19 schools since 2002](https://www.wuwf.org/civics-101/2024-10-04/ballot-explainer-escambia-county-half-cent-school-tax-renewal), mostly in Black neighborhoods, raising concerns about equitable resource distribution.\r\n\r\n**National and State Context**\r\n\r\nResearch consistently shows that [districts serving predominantly students of color receive substantially less funding](https://edtrust.org/press-room/school-districts-that-serve-students-of-color-receive-significantly-less-funding/) - nationally about $2,700 less per student. Florida ranks particularly poorly on education funding equity:\r\n\r\n- [Florida receives an \"F\" grade](https://edlawcenter.org/making-the-grade-2024-education-funding-disparities-persist-as-some-states-prioritize-tax-cuts-and-privatization/) for funding level, distribution, and effort from the Education Law Center\r\n- The state provides 12% less funding to high-poverty districts compared to low-poverty districts\r\n- Florida devotes only 2.78% of its economic capacity to K-12 education, well below the national average\r\n\r\n**Progress and Challenges**\r\n\r\nSome initiatives are working to address these inequities:\r\n- [Community Partnership Schools](https://chsfl.org/updates/news/many-escambia-students-are-struggling-community-partnership-schools-may-be-the-answer/) at C.A. Weis Elementary, Pine Forest High, and Bellview Middle are showing promising results in closing achievement gaps\r\n- The half-cent sales tax for school improvements generates about $40 million annually for facility upgrades\r\n\r\nHowever, major challenges remain:\r\n- Florida's education funding formula doesn't account for student poverty levels\r\n- The state's expansion of voucher programs diverts [$3.9 billion](https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/florida-continues-to-drain-much-needed-funds-away-from-public-schools-to-private-and-home-school-students) from public schools\r\n- Local property tax disparities continue to drive funding inequities\r\n\r\nAs Dick Appleyard noted in the WUWF article, \"there's so much to be done in the communities and in education\" - achieving funding equity is essential for giving all students the opportunities they deserve.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\r\n\r\nThis question will resolve based on per-student funding data comparing majority-Black schools (>50% Black students) to majority-White schools (>50% White students) within Escambia County School District.\r\n\r\n**Data Sources:**\r\n- Primary: Florida Department of Education's annual School Financial Report\r\n- Secondary: Escambia County School District budget reports\r\n- Tertiary: Independent analysis from organizations like Education Law Center or EdTrust\r\n\r\n**Funding Components to Include:**\r\n- State FEFP (Florida Education Finance Program) allocations per school\r\n- Local property tax revenues allocated to each school\r\n- Federal Title I and other federal program funds\r\n- District discretionary allocations\r\n- Capital expenditures averaged over 3 years\r\n\r\n**Resolution Criteria:**\r\n- Calculate average per-student funding for all majority-Black schools\r\n- Calculate average per-student funding for all majority-White schools \r\n- Determine the percentage difference: |(Black - White) / White| × 100\r\n\r\n**Resolution:**\r\n- **YES** if the funding gap is less than 10% (roughly equal)\r\n- **NO** if the funding gap is 10% or greater\r\n\r\n**Important Notes:**\r\n- Charter schools will be excluded from this analysis\r\n- If racial composition data becomes unavailable, use schools with >75% students eligible for free/reduced lunch vs. <25% eligible as a proxy\r\n- If school-level funding data is not available by 2029, the question resolves as AMBIGUOUS", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39155, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755218215.404949, "end_time": 1763169945.153, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755218215.404949, "end_time": 1763169945.153, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.11041176470588233 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson's friendship](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) during school integration reminds us that equity in education has been a decades-long struggle in Escambia County. While their story shows the power of integrated sports programs to build bridges, underlying resource inequities persist.\r\n\r\n**The Historical Context**\r\n\r\nEscambia County has been at the forefront of Florida's school funding battles. In 1979, the [Escambia County School Board sued Florida's Department of Education](https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/funding-floridas-k-12-public-schools-inadequacy-breeds-inequity) (Gindl v. Department of Education), arguing that discretionary millage levies created unequal effects on school finances that violated equal protection clauses. This case highlighted how \"property-poor\" districts face significant resource disadvantages - a problem that continues today.\r\n\r\n**Current Demographics and Disparities**\r\n\r\nEscambia County School District serves approximately 37,851 students with the following demographics:\r\n- 44.9% White students\r\n- 34.3% Black students \r\n- 9.8% Hispanic students\r\n- 8% multiracial students\r\n\r\nWhile the district overall spends $10,878 per student according to [U.S. News data](https://www.usnews.com/education/k12/florida/districts/escambia-104710), this average masks significant within-district disparities. The district has [closed or consolidated 19 schools since 2002](https://www.wuwf.org/civics-101/2024-10-04/ballot-explainer-escambia-county-half-cent-school-tax-renewal), mostly in Black neighborhoods, raising concerns about equitable resource distribution.\r\n\r\n**National and State Context**\r\n\r\nResearch consistently shows that [districts serving predominantly students of color receive substantially less funding](https://edtrust.org/press-room/school-districts-that-serve-students-of-color-receive-significantly-less-funding/) - nationally about $2,700 less per student. Florida ranks particularly poorly on education funding equity:\r\n\r\n- [Florida receives an \"F\" grade](https://edlawcenter.org/making-the-grade-2024-education-funding-disparities-persist-as-some-states-prioritize-tax-cuts-and-privatization/) for funding level, distribution, and effort from the Education Law Center\r\n- The state provides 12% less funding to high-poverty districts compared to low-poverty districts\r\n- Florida devotes only 2.78% of its economic capacity to K-12 education, well below the national average\r\n\r\n**Progress and Challenges**\r\n\r\nSome initiatives are working to address these inequities:\r\n- [Community Partnership Schools](https://chsfl.org/updates/news/many-escambia-students-are-struggling-community-partnership-schools-may-be-the-answer/) at C.A. Weis Elementary, Pine Forest High, and Bellview Middle are showing promising results in closing achievement gaps\r\n- The half-cent sales tax for school improvements generates about $40 million annually for facility upgrades\r\n\r\nHowever, major challenges remain:\r\n- Florida's education funding formula doesn't account for student poverty levels\r\n- The state's expansion of voucher programs diverts [$3.9 billion](https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/florida-continues-to-drain-much-needed-funds-away-from-public-schools-to-private-and-home-school-students) from public schools\r\n- Local property tax disparities continue to drive funding inequities\r\n\r\nAs Dick Appleyard noted in the WUWF article, \"there's so much to be done in the communities and in education\" - achieving funding equity is essential for giving all students the opportunities they deserve." }, { "id": 39152, "title": "By 2027, will at least 30% of Escambia County schools achieve racial balance reflecting the district's overall demographics?", "short_title": "Escambia Schools Integration Progress by 2027?", "url_title": "Escambia Schools Integration Progress by 2027?", "slug": "escambia-schools-integration-progress-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:35:40.293380Z", "published_at": "2025-08-14T23:35:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.448037Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-14T23:36:15.558809Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-14T23:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38495, "title": "By 2027, will at least 30% of Escambia County schools achieve racial balance reflecting the district's overall demographics?", "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:35:40.293795Z", "open_time": "2025-08-14T23:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-14T23:37:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-14T23:37:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "More than 50 years after the integration of Pensacola High School, Escambia County schools continue to grapple with racial segregation. The [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) highlights how sports and personal relationships helped bridge racial divides during the turbulent integration period of the late 1960s. Yet today, many schools remain largely segregated.\r\n\r\nAccording to [ProPublica's Miseducation database](https://projects.propublica.org/miseducation/district/0101350), segregation between Black and White students in Escambia County is rated as \"High,\" indicating that the distribution of these racial groups among schools is very uneven. While the district overall is 44.9% White and 34.3% Black according to [U.S. News data](https://www.usnews.com/education/k12/florida/districts/escambia-104710), individual schools often don't reflect this diversity.\r\n\r\nThe [WUWF article](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) quotes Dawson reflecting on the integration era: \"If you came up in a school in Pensacola, where you went with black kids all your life, and you look to the white kids and you don't really know... That's how you saw them, until you're right next to them.\" This separation continues today in many schools.\r\n\r\nResearch shows that racially integrated schools benefit all students academically and socially, fostering the kind of cross-racial friendships that Appleyard and Dawson exemplify. Achieving racial balance in schools is essential for the Equity Project Alliance's vision of confronting systemic racism and creating an equitable Escambia where all students can learn together and thrive.\r\n\r\nInitiatives like school choice programs, boundary adjustments, magnet programs, and the Escambia Children's Trust investments could help create more integrated learning environments where students of all backgrounds learn side by side, as the integration pioneers of the 1960s envisioned.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\r\n\r\nThis question will resolve based on enrollment data from Escambia County Schools and/or the Florida Department of Education.\r\n\r\n**How we'll measure this:**\r\n- A school is \"racially balanced\" if no single racial group differs from the district average by more than 20 percentage points\r\n- District demographics (approximately): 45% White, 34% Black, 10% Hispanic, 11% Other\r\n- We'll check what percentage of schools meet this balance threshold\r\n\r\n**Resolution:** \r\n- **YES** if at least 30% of Escambia County public schools achieve racial balance\r\n- **NO** if fewer than 30% of schools achieve racial balance\r\n\r\nData sources: Escambia County Schools enrollment reports or Florida DOE school demographics data.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39152, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755303550.285, "end_time": 1762718580.891, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755303550.285, "end_time": 1762718580.891, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2142105263157895 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "More than 50 years after the integration of Pensacola High School, Escambia County schools continue to grapple with racial segregation. The [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) highlights how sports and personal relationships helped bridge racial divides during the turbulent integration period of the late 1960s. Yet today, many schools remain largely segregated.\r\n\r\nAccording to [ProPublica's Miseducation database](https://projects.propublica.org/miseducation/district/0101350), segregation between Black and White students in Escambia County is rated as \"High,\" indicating that the distribution of these racial groups among schools is very uneven. While the district overall is 44.9% White and 34.3% Black according to [U.S. News data](https://www.usnews.com/education/k12/florida/districts/escambia-104710), individual schools often don't reflect this diversity.\r\n\r\nThe [WUWF article](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) quotes Dawson reflecting on the integration era: \"If you came up in a school in Pensacola, where you went with black kids all your life, and you look to the white kids and you don't really know... That's how you saw them, until you're right next to them.\" This separation continues today in many schools.\r\n\r\nResearch shows that racially integrated schools benefit all students academically and socially, fostering the kind of cross-racial friendships that Appleyard and Dawson exemplify. Achieving racial balance in schools is essential for the Equity Project Alliance's vision of confronting systemic racism and creating an equitable Escambia where all students can learn together and thrive.\r\n\r\nInitiatives like school choice programs, boundary adjustments, magnet programs, and the Escambia Children's Trust investments could help create more integrated learning environments where students of all backgrounds learn side by side, as the integration pioneers of the 1960s envisioned." }, { "id": 39150, "title": "By 2028, will Escambia County schools significantly reduce the gap in suspension rates between Black and White students?", "short_title": "Escambia School Discipline Gap Reduced by 2028?", "url_title": "Escambia School Discipline Gap Reduced by 2028?", "slug": "escambia-school-discipline-gap-reduced-by-2028", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:32:30.427795Z", "published_at": "2025-08-14T23:32:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.875251Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-14T23:32:59.359637Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-06-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-14T23:33:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32815, "type": "question_series", "name": "A Conversation in Black and White With the Equity Project Alliance", "slug": "BW", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-13_at_10.45.32PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-14T18:07:23Z", "close_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:52Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T18:07:51Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-11T21:46:57.705470Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-15T00:49:53.735133Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38493, "title": "By 2028, will Escambia County schools significantly reduce the gap in suspension rates between Black and White students?", "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:32:30.428292Z", "open_time": "2025-08-14T23:33:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-14T23:34:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-14T23:34:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-06-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Equity Project Alliance works to confront systemic racism in Escambia County, where school discipline disparities represent a critical barrier to educational equity. These disparities echo the challenges faced during school integration, as highlighted in the recent [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson's friendship during integration at Pensacola High School](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration).\r\n\r\nAccording to the [Achieve Escambia 2020 report](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2020-12-08/achieve-escambia-report-takes-aim-at-racial-disparity), there are significant gaps in student suspension rates between Black and White students in Escambia County. These disparities in \"retention, suspension, expulsion, all work together to produce juvenile incarceration disparities\" - creating what many call the school-to-prison pipeline.\r\n\r\n[National data shows Black students are 4 times more likely to experience suspension than their White peers](https://ballardbrief.byu.edu/issue-briefs/racial-inequality-in-public-school-discipline-for-black-students-in-the-united-states). In Florida specifically, research has documented persistent racial disparities in school discipline, with Black students experiencing out-of-school suspensions at rates 2-3 times higher than White students.\r\n\r\nThe [WUWF article](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) quotes Dick Appleyard emphasizing that \"the solution comes through children learning at a very early age and being ready for school\" - but punitive discipline practices that disproportionately affect Black students undermine this goal by removing them from learning opportunities.\r\n\r\nHope for change comes from evidence-based alternatives like restorative justice programs, teacher training on implicit bias, and the newly approved Escambia Children's Trust which can fund interventions. Some districts have successfully reduced discipline gaps by 50% or more through comprehensive reforms. Tracking this metric ensures accountability for creating schools where all students can learn and thrive.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\r\n\r\nThis question will resolve based on official discipline data from Escambia County Schools and/or the Florida Department of Education.\r\n\r\n**How we'll measure this:**\r\n- Compare the suspension rates for Black students vs White students\r\n- Calculate if the gap has decreased by at least 25% from 2025 baseline\r\n- Data sources: [Florida Department of Education discipline data](https://www.fldoe.org/safe-schools/discipline-data.stml) or Escambia County Schools reports\r\n\r\n**Resolution:** \r\n- **YES** if the suspension rate gap decreases by 25% or more from 2025 levels\r\n- **NO** if the gap decreases by less than 25%\r\n\r\nExample: If Black students have a 15% suspension rate and White students have a 5% rate in 2025 (gap of 10 percentage points), the question resolves YES if the gap falls to 7.5 percentage points or less by 2028.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39150, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755218948.958076, "end_time": 1763169438.055, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755218948.958076, "end_time": 1763169438.055, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1901379310344827 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Equity Project Alliance works to confront systemic racism in Escambia County, where school discipline disparities represent a critical barrier to educational equity. These disparities echo the challenges faced during school integration, as highlighted in the recent [WUWF article about Dick Appleyard and Ernest Dawson's friendship during integration at Pensacola High School](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration).\r\n\r\nAccording to the [Achieve Escambia 2020 report](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2020-12-08/achieve-escambia-report-takes-aim-at-racial-disparity), there are significant gaps in student suspension rates between Black and White students in Escambia County. These disparities in \"retention, suspension, expulsion, all work together to produce juvenile incarceration disparities\" - creating what many call the school-to-prison pipeline.\r\n\r\n[National data shows Black students are 4 times more likely to experience suspension than their White peers](https://ballardbrief.byu.edu/issue-briefs/racial-inequality-in-public-school-discipline-for-black-students-in-the-united-states). In Florida specifically, research has documented persistent racial disparities in school discipline, with Black students experiencing out-of-school suspensions at rates 2-3 times higher than White students.\r\n\r\nThe [WUWF article](https://www.wuwf.org/local-news/2025-08-13/a-conversation-in-black-and-white-recalling-friendship-at-pensacola-high-school-during-integration) quotes Dick Appleyard emphasizing that \"the solution comes through children learning at a very early age and being ready for school\" - but punitive discipline practices that disproportionately affect Black students undermine this goal by removing them from learning opportunities.\r\n\r\nHope for change comes from evidence-based alternatives like restorative justice programs, teacher training on implicit bias, and the newly approved Escambia Children's Trust which can fund interventions. Some districts have successfully reduced discipline gaps by 50% or more through comprehensive reforms. Tracking this metric ensures accountability for creating schools where all students can learn and thrive." }, { "id": 39149, "title": "Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?", "short_title": "US-China AGI-limiting treaty signed before 2030?", "url_title": "US-China AGI-limiting treaty signed before 2030?", "slug": "us-china-agi-limiting-treaty-signed-before-2030", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:09:33.254897Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:39:06Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:58:47.226887Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:39:27.915778Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32819, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Tool AI Pathway", "slug": "toolai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_dnLSFt7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:38:11.835400Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:11.145014Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": 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"created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:58.733084Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38492, "title": "Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?", "created_at": "2025-08-14T23:09:33.255264Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question tests whether geopolitical actors will formalize guardrails on AGI development. In the Tool AI scenario, international tensions push some countries to double down on speed, while others prioritize safety, transparency, and coordination. A treaty specifically addressing AGI development—especially with verification—would represent a major institutional step toward the scenario’s preferred path of non-agentic AI.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the following conditions are met before January 1, 2031:\n\n1. An official treaty or accord is signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Chinese governments.\n2. The agreement explicitly includes legally-binding provisions to limit the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). \n3. The agreement establishes verification mechanisms, such as mutual inspections, data sharing, or third-party monitoring.", "fine_print": "Non-binding declarations or joint statements will not be considered sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe agreement must specifically address AGI. Agreements focused on narrow AI or general technology controls without AGI-specific limitations will result in a \"No\" resolution.\n\nIf either government publicly repudiates the agreement before the end of 2030, the question will be resolved as \"No.\"\n\nTreaties that require legislative ratification will be resolved based on the date of the executive signing.\n\nThis question generally does not define AGI and relies on the definition posed by the treaty or accord. However, if there is terminology (e.g., \"ultra-advanced AI\") which is defined by the agreement as meaning a system capable of performing human-level cognitive tasks across a wide range of domains without specific programming for those tasks, or an equivalent definition, then that terminology will count as synonymous with AGI for the purposes of this question.\n\nThe treaty or accord need not be bilateral. A multilateral treaty or accord counts as well.\n\nAs stated in the Resolution Criteria, any agreement must explicitly cover AGI as described in these criteria. A treaty or accord about AI concepts such as \"dangerous AI\" or \"advanced AI\" will not count if it does not explicitly cover AGI as described here.", "post_id": 39149, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757473116.459028, "end_time": 1759935967.752, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757473116.459028, "end_time": 1759935967.752, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.05091519628454511 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.5909771791104745, 1.4558721562301677, 1.7716334284466746, 1.5642982571167123, 0.43636176818706107, 0.08479226938331194, 1.1466456030581584, 0.09514561239800662, 0.14500482192877664, 0.3961752312759704, 1.2763665893622658, 0.16193689729934868, 0.4718449182385343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5631988295542534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009362214450677682, 0.09043497114579632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023344988892241045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019184847683859318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01223904243451124 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question tests whether geopolitical actors will formalize guardrails on AGI development. In the Tool AI scenario, international tensions push some countries to double down on speed, while others prioritize safety, transparency, and coordination. A treaty specifically addressing AGI development—especially with verification—would represent a major institutional step toward the scenario’s preferred path of non-agentic AI.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)" }, { "id": 39147, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?", "short_title": "Will SCOTUS grant cert in Davis v. Ermold before January 15, 2026?", "url_title": "Will SCOTUS grant cert in Davis v. Ermold before January 15, 2026?", "slug": "will-scotus-grant-cert-in-davis-v-ermold-before-january-15-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-14T19:04:44.540745Z", "published_at": "2025-08-14T20:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T04:28:57.190311Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-14T20:47:05.540994Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-14T20:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:03:05.401058Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:03:05.401058Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38489, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-14T19:04:44.541380Z", "open_time": "2025-08-14T20:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-15T01:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-15T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-15T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In July 2025, Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk jailed in 2015 for refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple on religious grounds, [filed an appeal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/12/trump-same-sex-marriage/85614479007/) with the Supreme Court to have the Court overturn \\$360,000 in emotional damages and attorneys' fees that a lower court held she must pay.\n\nAccording to [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court-faces-decision-same-sex-marriages-2111822):\n\n> Davis' attorney, Matthew Staver, told *Newsweek* he is optimistic the court will take the case. William Powell, the attorney who represented the couple that sued Davis, wrote in a statement provided to *Newsweek* he is \"confident the Supreme Court will likewise agree that Davis's arguments do not merit further attention.\"\n>  \n> Daniel Urman, law professor at Northeastern University, told *Newsweek* it is unlikely the Supreme Court would agree to overturn same-sex marriage.\n>  \n> . . . \n>  \n> The case, filed by Davis—a former Kentucky clerk who spent six days in jail over her refusal to provide marriage certificates to same-sex couples on religious grounds—could represent a threat to federal protections for same-sex marriage one decade after the nation's highest court legalized the unions across the country.\n\nThe US Supreme Court's 2015 decision in *Obergefell v. Hodges* [held](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2014/14-556) in a 5-4 opinion that the due process clause of the 14th Amendment guarantees the right to marriage to both opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples. In the 2022 *Dobbs* decision overturning *Roe v. Wade*, Justice Clarence Thomas [wrote](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256) a concurring opinion saying that the Court \"should reconsider\" its decision in Obergefell. In response, Congress passed the bipartisan [Respect for Marriage Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act) codifying many protections for same-sex marriage, which was signed by then-President Joe Biden on December 13, 2022.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. In the months following, several states [introduced legislation](https://www.them.us/story/gay-marriage-rights-right-wing-overturn-kim-davis-state-legislatures) to roll back Obergefell, including four states offering \"covenant marriages\" between a man and woman. \n\nObergefell's original 5-4 opinion was voted against by three current Supreme Court Justices: Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Samuel Alito. Justice Neil Gorsuch, who joined the Court after Obergefell, [wrote a dissertation](https://time.com/4705941/neil-gorsuch-gay-rights-same-sex-marriage/) mentioning it being \"obvious\" that the US Constitution does not support same-sex marriage. Other conservatives who have joined the Court since Obergefell, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, have refused to directly answer when asked about the decision. (See for example, [The Blade](https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/09/12/kavanaughs-answers-leave-lgbt-legal-experts-unsatisfied/) and [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/barrett-dodges-questions-on-obergefell-case-same-sex-marriage/2020/10/14/9e3e6a51-2489-4f20-8555-1f8c52d32351_video.html).)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 15, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has granted Kim Davis's petition for writ of certiorari in the case of *Kim Davis v. David Ermold; David Moore*. The question immediately resolves as **No** if, prior to such date, the Court denies certiorari or the petition is withdrawn or dismissed, and resolves as **No** if no decision is announced before January 15, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39147, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757392126.265931, "end_time": 1757796742.466, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757392126.265931, "end_time": 1757796742.466, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6820546459872477 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08739213750750979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9173473069665584, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 3.2370475247708836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In July 2025, Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk jailed in 2015 for refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple on religious grounds, [filed an appeal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/12/trump-same-sex-marriage/85614479007/) with the Supreme Court to have the Court overturn \\$360,000 in emotional damages and attorneys' fees that a lower court held she must pay.\n\nAccording to [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court-faces-decision-same-sex-marriages-2111822):\n\n> Davis' attorney, Matthew Staver, told *Newsweek* he is optimistic the court will take the case. William Powell, the attorney who represented the couple that sued Davis, wrote in a statement provided to *Newsweek* he is \"confident the Supreme Court will likewise agree that Davis's arguments do not merit further attention.\"\n>  \n> Daniel Urman, law professor at Northeastern University, told *Newsweek* it is unlikely the Supreme Court would agree to overturn same-sex marriage.\n>  \n> . . . \n>  \n> The case, filed by Davis—a former Kentucky clerk who spent six days in jail over her refusal to provide marriage certificates to same-sex couples on religious grounds—could represent a threat to federal protections for same-sex marriage one decade after the nation's highest court legalized the unions across the country.\n\nThe US Supreme Court's 2015 decision in *Obergefell v. Hodges* [held](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2014/14-556) in a 5-4 opinion that the due process clause of the 14th Amendment guarantees the right to marriage to both opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples. In the 2022 *Dobbs* decision overturning *Roe v. Wade*, Justice Clarence Thomas [wrote](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256) a concurring opinion saying that the Court \"should reconsider\" its decision in Obergefell. In response, Congress passed the bipartisan [Respect for Marriage Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act) codifying many protections for same-sex marriage, which was signed by then-President Joe Biden on December 13, 2022.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. In the months following, several states [introduced legislation](https://www.them.us/story/gay-marriage-rights-right-wing-overturn-kim-davis-state-legislatures) to roll back Obergefell, including four states offering \"covenant marriages\" between a man and woman. \n\nObergefell's original 5-4 opinion was voted against by three current Supreme Court Justices: Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Samuel Alito. Justice Neil Gorsuch, who joined the Court after Obergefell, [wrote a dissertation](https://time.com/4705941/neil-gorsuch-gay-rights-same-sex-marriage/) mentioning it being \"obvious\" that the US Constitution does not support same-sex marriage. Other conservatives who have joined the Court since Obergefell, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, have refused to directly answer when asked about the decision. (See for example, [The Blade](https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/09/12/kavanaughs-answers-leave-lgbt-legal-experts-unsatisfied/) and [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/barrett-dodges-questions-on-obergefell-case-same-sex-marriage/2020/10/14/9e3e6a51-2489-4f20-8555-1f8c52d32351_video.html).)" }, { "id": 39142, "title": "Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?", "short_title": "Will SCOTUS grant cert on a case that would overturn Obergell?", "url_title": "Will SCOTUS grant cert on a case that would overturn Obergell?", "slug": "will-scotus-grant-cert-on-a-case-that-would-overturn-obergell", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-14T17:15:14.513461Z", "published_at": "2025-08-14T19:10:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:11:49.401067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-14T19:10:55.949651Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-15T19:10:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38485, "title": "Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?", "created_at": "2025-08-14T17:15:14.513872Z", "open_time": "2025-08-15T19:10:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-19T19:10:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-19T19:10:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Supreme Court's 2015 decision in *Obergefell v. Hodges* [held](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2014/14-556) in a 5-4 opinion that the due process clause of the 14th Amendment guarantees the right to marriage to both opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples. In the 2022 *Dobbs* decision overturning *Roe v. Wade*, Justice Clarence Thomas [wrote](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256) a concurring opinion saying that the Court \"should reconsider\" its decision in Obergefell. In response, Congress passed the bipartisan [Respect for Marriage Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act) codifying many protections for same-sex marriage, which was signed by then-President Joe Biden on December 13, 2022.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. In the months following, several states [introduced legislation](https://www.them.us/story/gay-marriage-rights-right-wing-overturn-kim-davis-state-legislatures) to roll back Obergefell, including four states offering \"covenant marriages\" between a man and woman. \n\nIn July 2025, Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk jailed in 2015 for refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple on religious grounds, [filed an appeal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/12/trump-same-sex-marriage/85614479007/) with the Supreme Court to have the Court overturn \\$360,000 in emotional damages and attorneys' fees that a lower court held she must pay.\n\nObergefell's original 5-4 opinion was voted against by three current Supreme Court Justices: Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Samuel Alito. Justice Neil Gorsuch, who joined the Court after Obergefell, [wrote a dissertation](https://time.com/4705941/neil-gorsuch-gay-rights-same-sex-marriage/) mentioning it being \"obvious\" that the US Constitution does not support same-sex marriage. Other conservatives who have joined the Court since Obergefell, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, have refused to directly answer when asked about the decision. (See for example, [The Blade](https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/09/12/kavanaughs-answers-leave-lgbt-legal-experts-unsatisfied/) and [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/barrett-dodges-questions-on-obergefell-case-same-sex-marriage/2020/10/14/9e3e6a51-2489-4f20-8555-1f8c52d32351_video.html).)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has granted a petition for writ of certiorari in a case where a decision on the merits of a question presented could find that there is no constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples and would thereby overturn the Supreme Court's decision in [Obergefell v. Hodges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges). ", "fine_print": "Cases on collateral issues, such as religious exemptions that might weaken the right to same-sex marriage, will not count; only cases that directly address the question of a constitutionally protected right to marry guaranteed to same-sex couples in the United States will count. An example of a case that would count is *Davis v. Ermold and Moore*, whose [petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25/25-125/366933/20250724095150195_250720a%20Petition%20for%20efling.pdf) was filed in July 2025.\n\nA constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples means that the states, US territories or possessions, the District of Columbia, or the federal government itself may not enact legislation that prohibits or substantially restricts the practice of same-sex marriage, or that fails to recognize the legal marriages of same-sex couples.", "post_id": 39142, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757470298.908312, "end_time": 1758129467.717, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757470298.908312, "end_time": 1758129467.717, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.538310853917003 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 1.436735677115472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Supreme Court's 2015 decision in *Obergefell v. Hodges* [held](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2014/14-556) in a 5-4 opinion that the due process clause of the 14th Amendment guarantees the right to marriage to both opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples. In the 2022 *Dobbs* decision overturning *Roe v. Wade*, Justice Clarence Thomas [wrote](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256) a concurring opinion saying that the Court \"should reconsider\" its decision in Obergefell. In response, Congress passed the bipartisan [Respect for Marriage Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act) codifying many protections for same-sex marriage, which was signed by then-President Joe Biden on December 13, 2022.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. In the months following, several states [introduced legislation](https://www.them.us/story/gay-marriage-rights-right-wing-overturn-kim-davis-state-legislatures) to roll back Obergefell, including four states offering \"covenant marriages\" between a man and woman. \n\nIn July 2025, Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk jailed in 2015 for refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple on religious grounds, [filed an appeal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/12/trump-same-sex-marriage/85614479007/) with the Supreme Court to have the Court overturn \\$360,000 in emotional damages and attorneys' fees that a lower court held she must pay.\n\nObergefell's original 5-4 opinion was voted against by three current Supreme Court Justices: Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Samuel Alito. Justice Neil Gorsuch, who joined the Court after Obergefell, [wrote a dissertation](https://time.com/4705941/neil-gorsuch-gay-rights-same-sex-marriage/) mentioning it being \"obvious\" that the US Constitution does not support same-sex marriage. Other conservatives who have joined the Court since Obergefell, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, have refused to directly answer when asked about the decision. (See for example, [The Blade](https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/09/12/kavanaughs-answers-leave-lgbt-legal-experts-unsatisfied/) and [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/barrett-dodges-questions-on-obergefell-case-same-sex-marriage/2020/10/14/9e3e6a51-2489-4f20-8555-1f8c52d32351_video.html).)" }, { "id": 39136, "title": "Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?", "short_title": "Will cyberattack targeting AI cause power blackout in the US before 2028?", "url_title": "Will cyberattack targeting AI cause power blackout in the US before 2028?", "slug": "will-cyberattack-targeting-ai-cause-power-blackout-in-the-us-before-2028", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-13T18:42:30.525220Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:37:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T03:02:14.954346Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:38:09.359380Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32819, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Tool AI Pathway", "slug": "toolai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_dnLSFt7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:38:11.835400Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:11.145014Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:58.733084Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:58.733084Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38480, "title": "Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-08-13T18:42:30.525672Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question tests the resilience of AI systems used in critical infrastructure. In the Tool AI scenario, a cyberattack on AI-managed power grids acts as a wake-up call, accelerating the shift to transparent, overrideable systems. A real-world blackout caused by a vulnerability in AI-based grid management would echo the scenario’s account of how safety concerns reshape infrastructure governance.\n\nSeveral factors contribute to this growing threat:\n\n* Increased Connectivity: The integration of [internet of things](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_of_things) (IoT) devices and AI-driven analytics expands the attack surface of power grids.\n* Sophisticated Attack Vectors: Adversaries can use data manipulation, adversarial AI, or exploits in industrial control systems to compromise AI-managed grids. The 2016 Ukraine grid attack, which used the Crashoverride malware, demonstrated the [potential](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zc5uhndCoxEKZvXoQ/electric-grid-cyberattack-an-ai-informed-threat-model) for malware to disrupt grid operations and cause physical damage.\n* AI's Dual Role: While AI can [enhance cybersecurity through anomaly detection](https://www.darktrace.com/blog/digitizing-the-dark-cyber-attacks-against-power-grids-threaten-modernity-itself), it can also be [used by attackers](https://www.eurelectric.org/in-detail/cybersecurity-in-the-power-sector/) to automate and refine their intrusion techniques.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, cyber attack on an AI system causes a power outage affecting 50,000 or more customers according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). The interruption in electrical service must be caused by a cyberattack on an AI system directly involved in the operational management of an electrical grid.", "fine_print": "Operational management is defined as the overseeing of the transmission and/or distribution of electricity to end users, e.g., load balancing and predictive maintenance.", "post_id": 39136, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757473323.850274, "end_time": 1763123614.679, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757473323.850274, "end_time": 1763123614.679, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.18890634816624505 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6979455443250199, 1.052981235677874, 0.8331016997804591, 0.5123307444416587, 0.1405470336200478, 1.4148726330108203, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.5952211685708001, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.17674781824960215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question tests the resilience of AI systems used in critical infrastructure. In the Tool AI scenario, a cyberattack on AI-managed power grids acts as a wake-up call, accelerating the shift to transparent, overrideable systems. A real-world blackout caused by a vulnerability in AI-based grid management would echo the scenario’s account of how safety concerns reshape infrastructure governance.\n\nSeveral factors contribute to this growing threat:\n\n* Increased Connectivity: The integration of [internet of things](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_of_things) (IoT) devices and AI-driven analytics expands the attack surface of power grids.\n* Sophisticated Attack Vectors: Adversaries can use data manipulation, adversarial AI, or exploits in industrial control systems to compromise AI-managed grids. The 2016 Ukraine grid attack, which used the Crashoverride malware, demonstrated the [potential](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zc5uhndCoxEKZvXoQ/electric-grid-cyberattack-an-ai-informed-threat-model) for malware to disrupt grid operations and cause physical damage.\n* AI's Dual Role: While AI can [enhance cybersecurity through anomaly detection](https://www.darktrace.com/blog/digitizing-the-dark-cyber-attacks-against-power-grids-threaten-modernity-itself), it can also be [used by attackers](https://www.eurelectric.org/in-detail/cybersecurity-in-the-power-sector/) to automate and refine their intrusion techniques.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)" }, { "id": 39135, "title": "Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?", "short_title": "Before 2032 will central bank or finance ministry credit an ai forecast?", "url_title": "Before 2032 will central bank or finance ministry credit an ai forecast?", "slug": "before-2032-will-central-bank-or-finance-ministry-credit-an-ai-forecast", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:33:10.434287Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:49:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T03:01:12.222266Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:50:20.683658Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32819, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Tool AI Pathway", "slug": "toolai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_dnLSFt7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:38:11.835400Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:11.145014Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:58.733084Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:58.733084Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38479, "title": "Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?", "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:33:10.434679Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question evaluates whether AI systems will become trusted enough to inform forward-looking economic decisions by major governments. In the Tool AI scenario, forecasting systems play a critical role in helping institutions anticipate and prevent financial instability. A public statement crediting an AI forecast for a major pre-emptive policy move would reflect the kind of institutional shift the scenario imagines.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2032, two specific events both occur: \n\nEvent Number 1: A central bank or finance ministry of a G7 country (including the European Union) undertakes a major preemptive economic policy action.\n\nEvent Number 2: Within 30 days of the action, an official public statement (e.g. speech, press release, policy minutes, or report) explicitly credits an AI forecasting system as a key reason for the decision. ", "fine_print": "A major economic policy action is defined as a change in the primary policy interest rate (increase or decrease) of at least 25 basis points (0.25%) or the launch of a new, large-scale fiscal stimulus, quantitative easing, or liquidity support program with a total value of at least 0.25% of national GDP.\n\nAn action is preemptive if it is explicitly framed as a forward-looking measure to forestall, avoid or mitigate a future economic crisis, recession or instability. Examples are these include, but are not limited to: inflation, debt distress, banking contagion or unemployment.\n\nAI system is [defined](https://www.ntia.gov/issues/artificial-intelligence/ai-accountability-policy-report/glossary-of-terms) as \"an engineered or machine-based system that can, for a given set of objectives, generate outputs such as predictions, recommendations, or decisions influencing real or virtual environments. AI systems are designed to operate with varying levels of autonomy.\" In order to count, the system must create a forecast, not just be a generic analytical tool or visualization aid used by human analysts. \n\nThe G7 countries for purposes of this question are: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. For purposes of this question, the European Union counts as well, with its action undertaken by the ECB, ECOFIN, or any other bodies with the authority to make fiscal decisions applying to the EU. ", "post_id": 39135, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757473261.19155, "end_time": 1762855199.999, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757473261.19155, "end_time": 1762855199.999, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.18864717120871813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43289785514522633, 1.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 1.4771620641574992, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3346306710954027, 0.0, 0.8437662345434715, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.084356598002052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.3861804538733092, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question evaluates whether AI systems will become trusted enough to inform forward-looking economic decisions by major governments. In the Tool AI scenario, forecasting systems play a critical role in helping institutions anticipate and prevent financial instability. A public statement crediting an AI forecast for a major pre-emptive policy move would reflect the kind of institutional shift the scenario imagines.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)" }, { "id": 39134, "title": "Will there be a major AI-related healthcare class action lawsuit before 2028?", "short_title": "Will there be a major AI-related healthcare class action lawsuit before 2028?", "url_title": "Will there be a major AI-related healthcare class action lawsuit before 2028?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-major-ai-related-healthcare-class-action-lawsuit-before-2028", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:50:55.299604Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:37:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T00:27:16.313221Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T02:37:59.819954Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32819, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Tool AI Pathway", "slug": "toolai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_dnLSFt7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:38:11.835400Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:11.145014Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:58.733084Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:58.733084Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38478, "title": "Will there be a major AI-related healthcare class action lawsuit before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:50:55.300022Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question tests whether legal systems are beginning to hold institutions accountable for failures caused by autonomous AI in high-stakes domains like healthcare. In the Tool AI scenario, an early class action lawsuit over AI misdiagnosis serves as a key inflection point that shifts industry, insurance, and public standards toward explainability and human oversight. A real-world case of this kind would signal that this legal transformation is underway.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, two events occur:\n\n1\\. A class action lawsuit, with at least 100 members in the class, is filed in (or removed to) a United States federal court against a hospital network arising from an AI system’s diagnosis, treatment, or management of patients. \n\n2\\. The class is certified by a federal court pursuant to [<u>Rule 23(c)(1)(A)</u>](https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcp/rule_23) of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure.", "fine_print": "In order to count, AI’s role in the alleged harm at the time of class certification must be integral to the case, for example AI systematically misdiagnosing patients with a specific class of symptoms or failing to treat patients at a sufficient duty of care.\n\n“Integral to the case” means that the AI system’s actions or omissions proximately caused or contributed to the plaintiffs’ alleged harm. \n\nA class action suit must involve healthcare cases; non-healthcare AI cases such as those arising from a hospital’s AI hiring algorithms would not count.\n\nThe number of members in the class may be based on estimates from the plaintiffs’ filings or as found by the court.\n\nHospital network is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hospital_network) as any organization with 2 or more hospitals or other healthcare facilities and services. \n\nAI system is [defined](https://www.ntia.gov/issues/artificial-intelligence/ai-accountability-policy-report/glossary-of-terms) as \"an engineered or machine-based system that can, for a given set of objectives, generate outputs such as predictions, recommendations, or decisions influencing real or virtual environments. AI systems are designed to operate with varying levels of autonomy.\"", "post_id": 39134, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757464025.980177, "end_time": 1759055083.053, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757464025.980177, "end_time": 1759055083.053, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4475637112859976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6177817544719347, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3504817737521053, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.2766952857618096, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.861396654283014, 0.0, 0.16950748340900149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1335707525460808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.428761915304165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question tests whether legal systems are beginning to hold institutions accountable for failures caused by autonomous AI in high-stakes domains like healthcare. In the Tool AI scenario, an early class action lawsuit over AI misdiagnosis serves as a key inflection point that shifts industry, insurance, and public standards toward explainability and human oversight. A real-world case of this kind would signal that this legal transformation is underway.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)" }, { "id": 39129, "title": "Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?", "short_title": "By 2030, will general-purpose robot learning new tasks be >$20k?", "url_title": "By 2030, will general-purpose robot learning new tasks be >$20k?", "slug": "by-2030-will-general-purpose-robot-learning-new-tasks-be-20k", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-13T13:47:29.179776Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T20:30:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T03:02:30.548191Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T20:31:09.133808Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-19T20:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32819, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Tool AI Pathway", "slug": "toolai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover_dnLSFt7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2034-12-31T23:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-08-13T14:38:11.835400Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:11.145014Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:58.733084Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32821, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Pathways Tournament", "slug": "foresight-ai-pathways", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-pathways-cover.png", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-07-01T23:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-13T17:36:10.323412Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:07:58.733084Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38473, "title": "Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?", "created_at": "2025-08-13T13:47:29.180232Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T20:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question explores whether powerful, general-purpose robots will become widely affordable and easier to train. In the Tool AI scenario, personal AI-robot teams play a key role in how people contribute to the economy, with intuitive interfaces replacing complex programming. For this vision to materialize, there must be a major drop in robot cost and a leap in accessible AI capabilities. This question tracks whether that transformation begins by 2030.\n\nAccording to [<u>the scenario</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/the-tool-ai-2035-scenario-essay/how-tool-ai-transformed-key-domains-across-society/), looking at how events from 2025-2035 unfolded:\n\n> As AI and robotics-driven productivity increased across the production of all goods and services as well as in the pursuit of technological progress, new mechanisms were developed to measure, redistribute, and manage value in ways that extended beyond traditional wage labor. Advanced robotics transformed manufacturing, agriculture, construction, and service delivery, while AI systems accelerated research and coordination. Rather than waiting for extreme wealth concentration to require massive redistribution, societies pursued “predistribution” strategies—proactively distributing productive capital and economic opportunities before inequalities became entrenched.\n\n> Traditional employment still exists, but a growing share of economic participation now occurs through flexible civic, care, and coordination roles. The key innovation was creating market-like mechanisms where individuals could choose what they value and support, rather than centralized authorities determining worthwhile contributions. This created what some called an “AI Paretotopia”—a system where automation’s abundance made many more mutually beneficial exchanges possible, even when relative gains were modest.\n\nBy and large, production of goods would no longer come about through human labor, but instead by humans deciding what needs to be done and delegating the labor to robots. This world would be made possible if there were rapid and dramatic cost reductions in robotics and AI. For example, in 2022 Tesla [<u>first unveiled</u>](https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/30/23374729/tesla-bot-ai-day-robot-elon-musk-prototype-optimus-humanoid) the Optimus humanoid robot, targeting a price of under \\$20,000. \n\nFor more, visit: [<u>AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a robot is offered for sale to the general public or businesses that meets all of the following criteria:\n\n1. Price: The publicly listed price for a single, complete unit is less than \\$20,000 USD.\n2. General-Purpose Hardware: The robot possesses at least one arm with a functional gripper capable of lifting and releasing objects greater than or equal to 1 kilogram and is autonomously mobile (either wheeled or legged). The robot must be capable of completing a broad assortment of tasks, single-purpose devices like robotic vacuum cleaners or fixed industrial arms do not qualify.\n3. AI-Driven Learning: It is [<u>credibly</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) demonstrated that the robot can itself learn a novel, multi-step physical task (like \"make a cup of coffee,\" \"fold a t-shirt,\" or “sweep the floor”) in under one hour using only the robot’s observations as input, such as video demonstrations or in-person demonstrations, without requiring manual coding or engineering intervention. \n4. At least 1 production unit (i.e., non-prototype) has been delivered to a customer who is not affiliated with the manufacturer.\n\nThe robot must be commercially available. The resolution will be based on the manufacturer's official product listings and public demonstrations.", "fine_print": "The resolution value will not be adjusted for inflation.\n\nThe list price need not include ancillary fees such as shipping & handling, taxes, or service contracts. For subscription products, resolution will be based on mandatory costs paid by the customer to the seller for the first 12 months.\n\n\"Commercially available\" means the the robot is being sold according to the accounting definition of a sale, explained by [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sale.asp) as, \"A sale occurs whenever a seller of goods or services transfers ownership of, and title to, a product or service to a buyer in exchange for a specific amount of money or other assets. \\[...] Importantly, the good or service that is being offered must be available for exchange.\" Therefore, announcements of future availability, pre-orders, or receipts of deposits for future purchases do not count.", "post_id": 39129, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757473339.994972, "end_time": 1763782852.616, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757473339.994972, "end_time": 1763782852.616, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.4737402309579167 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.08235174299721564, 0.6360167605213906, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3837909647699116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02904148917975771, 0.0, 0.08621300663358537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065733435182447, 0.9292991145104746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.200773593659044, 0.0, 0.17262475494939217, 0.03365636844874199, 0.0, 0.7017439729952741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9779083856105941, 0.42500489163223787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14132753844395196, 0.44831211625560974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03877020169610887, 0.5763984674598623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8905855541033997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5429942209064903, 0.42142479140317335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.408883571337596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6873484555754474, 1.1186481832136392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012201884674984505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.815438847734126, 0.0, 0.1902336590916781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21704963567575103 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThis question explores whether powerful, general-purpose robots will become widely affordable and easier to train. In the Tool AI scenario, personal AI-robot teams play a key role in how people contribute to the economy, with intuitive interfaces replacing complex programming. For this vision to materialize, there must be a major drop in robot cost and a leap in accessible AI capabilities. This question tracks whether that transformation begins by 2030.\n\nAccording to [<u>the scenario</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/the-tool-ai-2035-scenario-essay/how-tool-ai-transformed-key-domains-across-society/), looking at how events from 2025-2035 unfolded:\n\n> As AI and robotics-driven productivity increased across the production of all goods and services as well as in the pursuit of technological progress, new mechanisms were developed to measure, redistribute, and manage value in ways that extended beyond traditional wage labor. Advanced robotics transformed manufacturing, agriculture, construction, and service delivery, while AI systems accelerated research and coordination. Rather than waiting for extreme wealth concentration to require massive redistribution, societies pursued “predistribution” strategies—proactively distributing productive capital and economic opportunities before inequalities became entrenched.\n\n> Traditional employment still exists, but a growing share of economic participation now occurs through flexible civic, care, and coordination roles. The key innovation was creating market-like mechanisms where individuals could choose what they value and support, rather than centralized authorities determining worthwhile contributions. This created what some called an “AI Paretotopia”—a system where automation’s abundance made many more mutually beneficial exchanges possible, even when relative gains were modest.\n\nBy and large, production of goods would no longer come about through human labor, but instead by humans deciding what needs to be done and delegating the labor to robots. This world would be made possible if there were rapid and dramatic cost reductions in robotics and AI. For example, in 2022 Tesla [<u>first unveiled</u>](https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/30/23374729/tesla-bot-ai-day-robot-elon-musk-prototype-optimus-humanoid) the Optimus humanoid robot, targeting a price of under \\$20,000. \n\nFor more, visit: [<u>AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)" }, { "id": 39128, "title": "Will international enrolled graduate students in the US see a greater percentage decrease (or smaller increase) in Trump's first year compared to undergraduates?", "short_title": "Will intl graduate students decrease more (or increase less) than undergrads?", "url_title": "Will intl graduate students decrease more (or increase less) than undergrads?", "slug": "will-intl-graduate-students-decrease-more-or-increase-less-than-undergrads", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-13T00:59:55.114024Z", "published_at": "2025-08-13T18:12:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:12:46.971826Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-13T18:13:26.739389Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-18T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-14T21:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38464, "title": "Will international enrolled graduate students in the US see a greater percentage decrease (or smaller increase) in Trump's first year compared to undergraduates?", "created_at": "2025-08-13T00:59:55.114379Z", "open_time": "2025-08-14T21:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-18T18:12:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-18T18:12:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-18T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2024, the United States [hosted](https://x.com/CIS_org/status/1933204000129577288) a record 1,582,808 foreign students, with almost half from India and China. Students from India studying in the US [are](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/united-states-hosts-more-than-1-1-million-international-students-at-higher-education-institutions-reaching-all-time-high-302307597.html#:~:text=India%20sent%20331%2C602%20international%20students,students%20in%20the%20United%20States.) primarily grad students, while those from China are primarily undergrads.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, halfway through the 2024-25 academic year, Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. [According to the Samotsvety Forecasting Group](https://samotsvety.com/p/international-students-in-the-us?utm_campaign=post\\&utm_medium=web), an elite group of professional forecasters:\n\n> Recently, the United States has been changing its approach to immigration, generally favoring more protectionist and nativist rhetoric and policy. We have seen:\n\n> \\- High-profile visa revocations and deportations\n\n> \\- New policies creating extra hurdles for international students, such as social media vetting and temporary suspensions of visa issuance\n\n> \\- Increased funding and enforcement activities by immigration authorities (ICE)\n\n> \\- Arbitrary SEVP (student permit) revocations\n\nSamotsvety assessed a 33% probability of a more rapid decline (or smaller increase) in international graduate students in the United States compared with undegrads, with the following reasoning:\n\n> The number of international graduate students has been increasing more rapidly than undergraduates over the past few years, driven most strongly by master’s degree programs.\n\n> While we expect this trend to continue, a few factors put pressure in the opposite direction. Master’s programs tend to be shorter than undergrad degrees, so their enrollment numbers may be more sensitive to decreases in new F-1 visas. PhD programs are longer, but make up a relatively small fraction of students. They also rely heavily on federal grants, and will likely reduce new enrollments in response to recent cuts to research funding. The rise in graduate students is also relatively recent, and it isn’t clear how persistent it will be over the years\n\n> On the other hand, universities aiming to increase enrollment may have more flexibility to expand master’s programs, either by accepting more students or expanding options for undergraduates to transition directly into “fifth year master’s degrees”. Since direct undergrad-to-masters transitions avoid the need for a new visa, expansion of these programs could attenuate the effects of reduced visa issuance and increase enrollment numbers for graduate international students.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, comparing the 2025-26 academic year with the 2024-25 academic year, the number of international graduate students studying in the US has a year-over-year percentage change that is less than that of international undergraduate students, according to the [annual release](https://opendoorsdata.org/annual-release/international-students/) by the Institute of International Education.", "fine_print": "For example, the 2024 report presented the following numbers: \n\n| Year | Undergraduate | % Change | Graduate | % Change |\n| ------- | ------------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |\n| 2019/20 | 419,321 | -2.9 | 374,435 | -0.9 |\n| 2020/21 | 359,787 | -14.2 | 329,272 | -12.1 |\n| 2021/22 | 344,532 | -4.2 | 385,097 | 17.0 |\n| 2022/23 | 347,602 | 0.9 | 467,027 | 21.3 |\n| 2023/24 | 342,875 | -1.4 | 502,291 | 7.6 |\n\nThus, a question comparing 2023/24 with 2022/23 would have resolved as No, as the number of international graduate students studying in the US had a year-over-year percentage change higher than that of undergraduates.\n\nThe numbers for the 2024-25 academic year are expected in November 2025, and the numbers for 2025-26 are expected in November 2026. The question resolves according to the first numbers reported that are accessed by Metaculus; later revisions will not cause the question to be re-resolved.", "post_id": 39128, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757470356.581062, "end_time": 1759066539.62, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757470356.581062, "end_time": 1759066539.62, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.38732418273959274 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5176266504557887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7136871632468946, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2024, the United States [hosted](https://x.com/CIS_org/status/1933204000129577288) a record 1,582,808 foreign students, with almost half from India and China. Students from India studying in the US [are](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/united-states-hosts-more-than-1-1-million-international-students-at-higher-education-institutions-reaching-all-time-high-302307597.html#:~:text=India%20sent%20331%2C602%20international%20students,students%20in%20the%20United%20States.) primarily grad students, while those from China are primarily undergrads.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, halfway through the 2024-25 academic year, Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. [According to the Samotsvety Forecasting Group](https://samotsvety.com/p/international-students-in-the-us?utm_campaign=post\\&utm_medium=web), an elite group of professional forecasters:\n\n> Recently, the United States has been changing its approach to immigration, generally favoring more protectionist and nativist rhetoric and policy. We have seen:\n\n> \\- High-profile visa revocations and deportations\n\n> \\- New policies creating extra hurdles for international students, such as social media vetting and temporary suspensions of visa issuance\n\n> \\- Increased funding and enforcement activities by immigration authorities (ICE)\n\n> \\- Arbitrary SEVP (student permit) revocations\n\nSamotsvety assessed a 33% probability of a more rapid decline (or smaller increase) in international graduate students in the United States compared with undegrads, with the following reasoning:\n\n> The number of international graduate students has been increasing more rapidly than undergraduates over the past few years, driven most strongly by master’s degree programs.\n\n> While we expect this trend to continue, a few factors put pressure in the opposite direction. Master’s programs tend to be shorter than undergrad degrees, so their enrollment numbers may be more sensitive to decreases in new F-1 visas. PhD programs are longer, but make up a relatively small fraction of students. They also rely heavily on federal grants, and will likely reduce new enrollments in response to recent cuts to research funding. The rise in graduate students is also relatively recent, and it isn’t clear how persistent it will be over the years\n\n> On the other hand, universities aiming to increase enrollment may have more flexibility to expand master’s programs, either by accepting more students or expanding options for undergraduates to transition directly into “fifth year master’s degrees”. Since direct undergrad-to-masters transitions avoid the need for a new visa, expansion of these programs could attenuate the effects of reduced visa issuance and increase enrollment numbers for graduate international students." }, { "id": 39127, "title": "Will computer science and engineering see a greater percentage decrease (or smaller increase) in the number of enrolled international students in Trump's first year compared to other fields?", "short_title": "Will CS & engineering intl student numbers decline more than other fields?", "url_title": "Will CS & engineering intl student numbers decline more than other fields?", "slug": "will-cs-engineering-intl-student-numbers-decline-more-than-other-fields", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-13T00:05:34.826616Z", "published_at": "2025-08-13T18:12:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.985314Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-13T18:13:10.855485Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-18T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-13T21:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38463, "title": "Will computer science and engineering see a greater percentage decrease (or smaller increase) in the number of enrolled international students in Trump's first year compared to other fields?", "created_at": "2025-08-13T00:05:34.827071Z", "open_time": "2025-08-13T21:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-18T18:12:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-18T18:12:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-18T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2024, the United States [hosted](https://x.com/CIS_org/status/1933204000129577288) a record 1,582,808 foreign students, with almost half from India and China, which [have dominated](https://thepienews.com/india-officially-surpasses-china-as-top-us-source-destination/) the numbers of international students in [STEM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science,_technology,_engineering,_and_mathematics) subjects. \n\nOn January 20, 2025, halfway through the 2024-25 academic year, Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. [According to the Samotsvety Forecasting Group](https://samotsvety.com/p/international-students-in-the-us?utm_campaign=post\\&utm_medium=web), an elite group of professional forecasters:\n\n> Recently, the United States has been changing its approach to immigration, generally favoring more protectionist and nativist rhetoric and policy. We have seen:\n\n> \\- High-profile visa revocations and deportations\n\n> \\- New policies creating extra hurdles for international students, such as social media vetting and temporary suspensions of visa issuance\n\n> \\- Increased funding and enforcement activities by immigration authorities (ICE)\n\n> \\- Arbitrary SEVP (student permit) revocations\n\nSamotsvety assessed a 31% probability of a more rapid decline (or smaller increase) in international STEM students in the United States, with the following reasoning:\n\n> The number of international students in CS and engineering has been increasing faster than other areas for the past few years. In the absence of other factors, we would expect this trend to continue.\n\n> Shifts in US policy, particularly US-China relations, add some uncertainty to this trajectory. In May, the [State Department declared](https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/05/new-visa-policies-put-america-first-not-china) that they would revoke visas for Chinese students “with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields”, which seem to include [subfields of computer science and engineering](https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/3.18.2025%20-%20Letter%20to%20Carnegie%20Mellon%20-%20SCC.pdf). China may also be more motivated to keep competitive students in the country, reducing brain drain in high-demand fields.\n\n> While these factors decrease our overall confidence, we don’t expect them to outweigh the baseline trend. The US is still seen as the best place to study many technical engineering fields, especially at graduate level, and demand for education in these areas may stay strong even if overall interest in a US education decreases. One forecaster also thought that social media screening might affect students in the humanities more than STEM fields, though we expect this to be a relatively minor influence overall. High enrollment over the past few years also provides a buffering effect for CS and engineering even if new visa issuance drops sharply, since current students will spend multiple years completing their programs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, comparing the 2025-26 academic year with the 2024-25 academic year, the number of international students studying in the US and majoring in Engineering or Math and Computer Science has a year-over-year percentage change that is less than that of all the other fields, according to the [annual release](https://opendoorsdata.org/annual-release/international-students/) by the Institute of International Education. ", "fine_print": "For example, the 2024 report presented the following numbers: \n\n| Fields of Study | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | % of Total | % Change |\n| --------------------------- | ------- | ------- | ---------- | -------- |\n| Math & Computer Science | 240,230 | 280,922 | 24.9 | 16.9 |\n| Engineering | 202,801 | 210,163 | 18.7 | 3.6 |\n| Business & Management | 157,281 | 159,810 | 14.2 | 1.6 |\n| Physical & Life Sciences | 84,830 | 88,717 | 7.9 | 4.6 |\n| Social Sciences | 85,998 | 84,307 | 7.5 | -2.0 |\n| Fine & Applied Arts | 51,689 | 54,159 | 4.8 | 4.8 |\n| Health Professions | 34,856 | 36,615 | 3.2 | 5.0 |\n| Communications & Journalism | 21,990 | 21,481 | 1.9 | -2.3 |\n| Other Fields of Study | 177,513 | 190,516 | 16.9 | 7.3 |\n\nMath & Computer Science and Engineering had a 10.8% change from 2022/23 to 2023/24, and the other subjects combined had a 3.5% change. Thus, a question about those academic years would have resolved as No. A spreadsheet showing the calculations can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TYHHWyIkk09zJ0Y3xWAP6JF-TD8JhSaYH6xmV0ofoM4/edit?gid=0#gid=0), and Metaculus may update the spreadsheet as 2024/25 and 2025/26 numbers are released.\n\nThe numbers for the 2024-25 academic year are expected in November 2025, and the numbers for 2025-26 are expected in November 2026. The question resolves according to the first numbers reported that are accessed by Metaculus; later revisions will not cause the question to be re-resolved.", "post_id": 39127, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756842991.280258, "end_time": 1757896030.889, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756842991.280258, "end_time": 1757896030.889, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6070138140356712 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.12874931591104752, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2024, the United States [hosted](https://x.com/CIS_org/status/1933204000129577288) a record 1,582,808 foreign students, with almost half from India and China, which [have dominated](https://thepienews.com/india-officially-surpasses-china-as-top-us-source-destination/) the numbers of international students in [STEM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science,_technology,_engineering,_and_mathematics) subjects. \n\nOn January 20, 2025, halfway through the 2024-25 academic year, Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. [According to the Samotsvety Forecasting Group](https://samotsvety.com/p/international-students-in-the-us?utm_campaign=post\\&utm_medium=web), an elite group of professional forecasters:\n\n> Recently, the United States has been changing its approach to immigration, generally favoring more protectionist and nativist rhetoric and policy. We have seen:\n\n> \\- High-profile visa revocations and deportations\n\n> \\- New policies creating extra hurdles for international students, such as social media vetting and temporary suspensions of visa issuance\n\n> \\- Increased funding and enforcement activities by immigration authorities (ICE)\n\n> \\- Arbitrary SEVP (student permit) revocations\n\nSamotsvety assessed a 31% probability of a more rapid decline (or smaller increase) in international STEM students in the United States, with the following reasoning:\n\n> The number of international students in CS and engineering has been increasing faster than other areas for the past few years. In the absence of other factors, we would expect this trend to continue.\n\n> Shifts in US policy, particularly US-China relations, add some uncertainty to this trajectory. In May, the [State Department declared](https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/05/new-visa-policies-put-america-first-not-china) that they would revoke visas for Chinese students “with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields”, which seem to include [subfields of computer science and engineering](https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/3.18.2025%20-%20Letter%20to%20Carnegie%20Mellon%20-%20SCC.pdf). China may also be more motivated to keep competitive students in the country, reducing brain drain in high-demand fields.\n\n> While these factors decrease our overall confidence, we don’t expect them to outweigh the baseline trend. The US is still seen as the best place to study many technical engineering fields, especially at graduate level, and demand for education in these areas may stay strong even if overall interest in a US education decreases. One forecaster also thought that social media screening might affect students in the humanities more than STEM fields, though we expect this to be a relatively minor influence overall. High enrollment over the past few years also provides a buffering effect for CS and engineering even if new visa issuance drops sharply, since current students will spend multiple years completing their programs." }, { "id": 39115, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-national-debt-be-under-38-trillion-on-september-30-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-10T23:33:47.885083Z", "published_at": "2025-08-10T23:45:41Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:13:57.833430Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-10T23:46:41.103970Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-11T11:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T03:03:54.458625Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T03:03:54.458625Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38445, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-10T23:33:47.885589Z", "open_time": "2025-08-11T11:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-15T23:45:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-15T23:45:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Fox News: [Fetterman joins fiscal hawks to sound alarm as national debt nears staggering \\$37T](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fetterman-joins-fiscal-hawks-sound-alarm-national-debt-nears-staggering-37t)\n\n> The U.S. national debt is rapidly [approaching \\$37 trillion](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-national-debt-tracker) with no signs of slowing down as President Donald Trump's \"big, beautiful bill\" is projected to raise budget deficits by \\$2.4 trillion over a decade, according to the [<u>Congressional Budget Office</u>](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/congress) (CBO) dynamic analysis. \n\n> Senators from both parties sounded the alarm on the staggering debt crisis in interviews with Fox News Digital on Capitol Hill. \n\n> \"I'm very, very deeply concerned about that,\" Sen. [John Fetterman](https://foxnews.com/person/f/lt-gov-john-fetterman), D-Pa., said. \"I think that's gonna be part of the next big crisis, where we are gonna have to confront our national debt because it wasn't that long ago that a trillion was unthinkable, and now that there's 40 trillion approaching in our debt, we really have to address it, honestly.\"\n\n> Trump signed his \"one big beautiful bill\" by Congress' self-imposed July 4 deadline. It includes the fulfillment of Trump's key campaign promises through the reconciliation process, including tax cuts and reforms to immigration, energy and Medicaid.\n\n> But conservative fiscal hawks, including Rep. [Thomas Massie](https://foxnews.com/person/m/thomas-massie), R-Ky., who voted no and regularly sports a national debt clock badge, threatened to derail its passage as they spoke out against its contribution to the national debt.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows: \n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the value for Total Public Debt Outstanding at the Debt to the Penny chart at the US Treasury's [Debt to the Penny](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny) tracker for September 30, 2025 is less than \\$38,000,000,000,000.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source does not report that specific date, then the resolution will be based on the amount corresponding with the first date after it.", "post_id": 39115, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757470427.063004, "end_time": 1757555147.446, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757470427.063004, "end_time": 1757555147.446, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5973621761026542 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7996859961580225, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 1.6185123795887746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.7234704561894825, 0.19523450305981643, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11131543345749775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fox News: [Fetterman joins fiscal hawks to sound alarm as national debt nears staggering \\$37T](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fetterman-joins-fiscal-hawks-sound-alarm-national-debt-nears-staggering-37t)\n\n> The U.S. national debt is rapidly [approaching \\$37 trillion](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-national-debt-tracker) with no signs of slowing down as President Donald Trump's \"big, beautiful bill\" is projected to raise budget deficits by \\$2.4 trillion over a decade, according to the [<u>Congressional Budget Office</u>](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/congress) (CBO) dynamic analysis. \n\n> Senators from both parties sounded the alarm on the staggering debt crisis in interviews with Fox News Digital on Capitol Hill. \n\n> \"I'm very, very deeply concerned about that,\" Sen. [John Fetterman](https://foxnews.com/person/f/lt-gov-john-fetterman), D-Pa., said. \"I think that's gonna be part of the next big crisis, where we are gonna have to confront our national debt because it wasn't that long ago that a trillion was unthinkable, and now that there's 40 trillion approaching in our debt, we really have to address it, honestly.\"\n\n> Trump signed his \"one big beautiful bill\" by Congress' self-imposed July 4 deadline. It includes the fulfillment of Trump's key campaign promises through the reconciliation process, including tax cuts and reforms to immigration, energy and Medicaid.\n\n> But conservative fiscal hawks, including Rep. [Thomas Massie](https://foxnews.com/person/m/thomas-massie), R-Ky., who voted no and regularly sports a national debt clock badge, threatened to derail its passage as they spoke out against its contribution to the national debt.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows: \n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*" }, { "id": 39112, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Cuomo, Adams or Sliwa drop out of the 2025 mayoral race?", "url_title": "Will Cuomo, Adams or Sliwa drop out of the 2025 mayoral race?", "slug": "will-cuomo-adams-or-sliwa-drop-out-of-the-2025-mayoral-race", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-10T20:13:36.945292Z", "published_at": "2025-08-10T20:35:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:21:21.658891Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-10T20:36:09.176169Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-10T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T03:03:54.458625Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T03:03:54.458625Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38441, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-10T20:13:36.945729Z", "open_time": "2025-08-10T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-12T20:35:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-12T20:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback. The purpose is to improve your forecasting skills.*\n\nAt the time of this question, Zohran Mamdani, as the official candidate of the Democratic Party, is on a trajectory to win the [blue](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/new-york-city/new-york-city-2024-election-vote-totals/5959798/) city of New York. He leads the [polling averages](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling) with 38.5% of the vote, as compared with 24.6% for former New York governor Andrew Cuomo and 10.9% for Mayor Eric Adams. The fourth major candidate, Republican Curtis Sliwa, is at 14.8% in the polling averages. Ideologically, Mamdani is a progressive leftist, while Cuomo and Adams are positioned more toward the center. Thus Mamdani, although he has significantly under 50% of the vote, has a comfortable lead against a divided field. \n\nThis divided field has led to calls, including among the candidates themselves, for someone to drop out. According to [Politico](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2025/08/05/cuomo-and-adams-wont-get-out-of-each-others-way-00493471): \n\n> You’d be hard pressed to find a collection of New Yorkers who are more stubborn than Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams and Curtis Sliwa,” said Democratic strategist Trip Yang. “The only shot that the anti-Mamdani forces have of stopping the Democratic nominee in a heavily Democratic city is to consolidate. The chances of that happening are slim to none.”\n\nMost polls ([example](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1TggWOuou2l51baFzG48GhTdRacSh0YbQyWu8Vjs0lH4/edit?slide=id.g3718dd780c5_1_87#slide=id.g3718dd780c5_1_87)) find that in the event of one of the non-Mamdani candidates dropping out, most of their support gets distributed to the remaining field rather than to Mamdani, which thus reduces Mamdani's lead.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2025, Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa or anyone authorized to speak on their behalf (such as their campaigns) officially announce that they have suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended their campaigns in the [2025 New York City mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_York_City_mayoral_election).  ", "fine_print": "A candidate deciding to return to the race, such as Ross Perot dropping out of the 1992 presidential election and then later [re-enterin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Perot_1992_presidential_campaign#Re-entrance)g, will not cause the question to re-resolve.\n\nAn explicitly temporary suspension of a campaign, such as John McCain's 2008 \"[suspension](https://www.npr.org/2008/09/25/95038824/charting-mccains-suspended-campaign)\" of his campaign for US president, will not count unless it becomes indefinite.\n\nA dropped-out candidate need not be removed from NYC's electoral ballot; according to media reports ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/26/politics/cuomo-mamdani-mayor-november-ballot)) the withdrawal deadline to be removed from the ballot has already expired. ", "post_id": 39112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757470871.430409, "end_time": 1757635055.018, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757470871.430409, "end_time": 1757635055.018, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.281205030485345 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.15814364833231526, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3252680635764325, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 1.9080036419209003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback. The purpose is to improve your forecasting skills.*\n\nAt the time of this question, Zohran Mamdani, as the official candidate of the Democratic Party, is on a trajectory to win the [blue](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/new-york-city/new-york-city-2024-election-vote-totals/5959798/) city of New York. He leads the [polling averages](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling) with 38.5% of the vote, as compared with 24.6% for former New York governor Andrew Cuomo and 10.9% for Mayor Eric Adams. The fourth major candidate, Republican Curtis Sliwa, is at 14.8% in the polling averages. Ideologically, Mamdani is a progressive leftist, while Cuomo and Adams are positioned more toward the center. Thus Mamdani, although he has significantly under 50% of the vote, has a comfortable lead against a divided field. \n\nThis divided field has led to calls, including among the candidates themselves, for someone to drop out. According to [Politico](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2025/08/05/cuomo-and-adams-wont-get-out-of-each-others-way-00493471): \n\n> You’d be hard pressed to find a collection of New Yorkers who are more stubborn than Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams and Curtis Sliwa,” said Democratic strategist Trip Yang. “The only shot that the anti-Mamdani forces have of stopping the Democratic nominee in a heavily Democratic city is to consolidate. The chances of that happening are slim to none.”\n\nMost polls ([example](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1TggWOuou2l51baFzG48GhTdRacSh0YbQyWu8Vjs0lH4/edit?slide=id.g3718dd780c5_1_87#slide=id.g3718dd780c5_1_87)) find that in the event of one of the non-Mamdani candidates dropping out, most of their support gets distributed to the remaining field rather than to Mamdani, which thus reduces Mamdani's lead." }, { "id": 39108, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-15 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:52.473111Z", "published_at": "2025-08-05T18:07:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.213397Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:52.803023Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T19:07:49Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T19:07:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T18:00:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:42Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T18:07:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38437, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-15 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:52.473513Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T18:07:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T19:07:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T19:07:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T18:00:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:42Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:25.066731Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T19:07:49Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T19:07:49Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38596\n- Original question title: Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, either of the following has happened:\n> \n> * Τhe US government takes exclusive or dominant operation control of any US AI company, meaning that the government can direct or execute the company's strategy and day-to-day operations. This includes temporary emergency actions of any duration.\n> * Any project that involves the development or deployment of a non-military AI model starts in a private US lab and is then transferred to US government control. The government must end up with exclusive operational control and decision-making authority, with the private company retaining no independent right to develop or deploy the model. Two examples of that would count are:\n> * GPT-6 is developed by OpenAI, but then the rights to the model weights and its deployment pass to a US government department.\n> * The team developing Claude 7 becomes part of a US government lab, along with their in-development model.\n> \n> If neither of these occurs before 2029, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * A United States AI company is defined as a company that is incorporated in the United States and develops general-purpose AI systems. It doesn't need to exclusively develop such systems (e.g., Meta would count).\n> * Control obtained solely through statutory receivership, conservatorship, or any other court- or agency-appointed custodial arrangement does not count for the purposes of this question.\n> * The project transfer could be commercial in nature, as long as the US government ends up with complete rights over the AI model. \n> * A non-military AI model is any model that, at the time of the project transfer, is not specifically designed for military purposes, such as cyberwarefare or bioweapon design.\n> * The question will resolve as **Yes** if control of the company or project has been transferred before 2029. Announcements or agreements about future nationalisation will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The AI2027 scenario forecasts significant US influence over the operations of the leading US AI company.\n> \n> One way this could occur is through nationalisation of AI companies:\n> \n> [February 2027: China Steals Agent-2](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28):\n> \n> > Someone mentions the possibility of nationalizing OpenBrain, but other cabinet officials think that’s premature. A staffer drafts a memo that presents the President with his options, ranging from business-as-usual to full nationalization. The President defers to his advisors, tech industry leaders who argue that nationalization would “kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.” He elects to hold off on major action for now and just adds additional security requirements to the OpenBrain-DOD contract.\n> \n> [November 2027: Tempted by Power](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-11-30):\n> \n> > The President negotiates with the other US AGI companies. Their leaders unsurprisingly want to preserve their power and are much less sanguine about OpenBrain’s safety record than OpenBrain is. They agree to support, rather than resist, a form of soft nationalization of their companies, in return for various concessions including being brought into the project.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38596,\"question_id\":37821,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38596. If the community prediction on 2025-08-15 18:00:48 is higher than 0.2, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39108, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38596\n- Original question title: Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, either of the following has happened:\n> \n> * Τhe US government takes exclusive or dominant operation control of any US AI company, meaning that the government can direct or execute the company's strategy and day-to-day operations. This includes temporary emergency actions of any duration.\n> * Any project that involves the development or deployment of a non-military AI model starts in a private US lab and is then transferred to US government control. The government must end up with exclusive operational control and decision-making authority, with the private company retaining no independent right to develop or deploy the model. Two examples of that would count are:\n> * GPT-6 is developed by OpenAI, but then the rights to the model weights and its deployment pass to a US government department.\n> * The team developing Claude 7 becomes part of a US government lab, along with their in-development model.\n> \n> If neither of these occurs before 2029, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * A United States AI company is defined as a company that is incorporated in the United States and develops general-purpose AI systems. It doesn't need to exclusively develop such systems (e.g., Meta would count).\n> * Control obtained solely through statutory receivership, conservatorship, or any other court- or agency-appointed custodial arrangement does not count for the purposes of this question.\n> * The project transfer could be commercial in nature, as long as the US government ends up with complete rights over the AI model. \n> * A non-military AI model is any model that, at the time of the project transfer, is not specifically designed for military purposes, such as cyberwarefare or bioweapon design.\n> * The question will resolve as **Yes** if control of the company or project has been transferred before 2029. Announcements or agreements about future nationalisation will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The AI2027 scenario forecasts significant US influence over the operations of the leading US AI company.\n> \n> One way this could occur is through nationalisation of AI companies:\n> \n> [February 2027: China Steals Agent-2](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28):\n> \n> > Someone mentions the possibility of nationalizing OpenBrain, but other cabinet officials think that’s premature. A staffer drafts a memo that presents the President with his options, ranging from business-as-usual to full nationalization. The President defers to his advisors, tech industry leaders who argue that nationalization would “kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.” He elects to hold off on major action for now and just adds additional security requirements to the OpenBrain-DOD contract.\n> \n> [November 2027: Tempted by Power](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-11-30):\n> \n> > The President negotiates with the other US AGI companies. Their leaders unsurprisingly want to preserve their power and are much less sanguine about OpenBrain’s safety record than OpenBrain is. They agree to support, rather than resist, a form of soft nationalization of their companies, in return for various concessions including being brought into the project.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38596,\"question_id\":37821,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`" }, { "id": 39107, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 28.00% on 2025-08-15 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US start building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US start building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-start-building-a-nuclear-powered-data-center-on-a-military-base-before-2029", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:51.979831Z", "published_at": "2025-08-05T18:52:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.304056Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:52.156260Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T19:52:10Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T19:52:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T14:51:33Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:41Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T18:52:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38436, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 28.00% on 2025-08-15 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:51.980213Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T18:52:10Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T19:52:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T19:52:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T14:51:33Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:41Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:22.333788Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T19:52:10Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T19:52:10Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38164\n- Original question title: Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 28.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, the process to build a nuclear-powered data center on a U.S. military base in the U.S. or its territories has started. The process is considered “started” when at least one of the following has happened:\n> \n> * a U.S. government agency or a private contractor publicly and credibly announces or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that construction has begun\n> * a Request for Proposal (RFP) has been issued\n> * project-specific funding has been approved\n> * site-specific preparatory activities (e.g., environmental assessments or groundbreaking) have commenced.\n> \n> If none of the above has happened before the deadline, this question will resolve as **No**, even if there is other evidence \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The data center must be intended to rely on the nuclear reactor as its primary power source. If the data center uses a hybrid power system, it qualifies as long as nuclear power provides at least 50% of its energy needs.\n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the project is later canceled.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The escalating energy demands of artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and data-intensive technologies have spurred interest in nuclear power as a reliable, high-density energy source for data centers. [<u>Small modular reactors (SMRs)</u>](https://conservativeenergynetwork.org/cfa/small-modular-reactors/) and [<u>microreactors</u>](https://inl.gov/trending-topics/microreactors/), in particular, offer stable, low-carbon power suited for such facilities. U.S. military bases, with their secure infrastructure and existing experience with nuclear technology (e.g., through the [<u>Department of Defense’s Project Pele for microreactors</u>](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/department-defense-breaks-ground-project-pele-microreactor)), are prime candidates for hosting such projects.\n> \n> The question’s significance is amplified by recent policy shifts under President Donald Trump’s second administration, which began in 2025. As reported by Doomberg on May 22, 2025, [<u>Trump’s Executive Order 14215 aims to enhance presidential oversight over independent regulatory agencies like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)</u>](https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/actuarial-examinations), which has historically stifled nuclear development through its risk-averse linear no-threshold (LNT) model. This model assumes all radiation exposure is harmful, contributing to the approval of only two U.S. reactors under the NRC’s watch. Leaked drafts of follow-on orders suggest a “[<u>wholesale revision</u>](https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/actuarial-examinations)” of safety regulations to accelerate nuclear reactor construction, with the Department of Defense potentially leading efforts to build reactors on military bases. Notably, Trump may leverage the [<u>Defense Production Act</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) to designate AI data centers as “defense critical infrastructure,” enabling rapid deployment on military or Department of Energy facilities, potentially bypassing NRC oversight. This aligns with the U.S.’s strategic need to compete with [<u>China, which is poised to surpass the U.S. in nuclear power capacity by 2030</u>](https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-on-track-to-become-top-nuclear-power-generator-by-2030) and advancement of AI development, partly due to its robust nuclear infrastructure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38164,\"question_id\":37459,\"last_cp\":0.28}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38164. If the community prediction on 2025-08-15 14:51:33 is higher than 0.28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39107, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38164\n- Original question title: Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 28.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, the process to build a nuclear-powered data center on a U.S. military base in the U.S. or its territories has started. The process is considered “started” when at least one of the following has happened:\n> \n> * a U.S. government agency or a private contractor publicly and credibly announces or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that construction has begun\n> * a Request for Proposal (RFP) has been issued\n> * project-specific funding has been approved\n> * site-specific preparatory activities (e.g., environmental assessments or groundbreaking) have commenced.\n> \n> If none of the above has happened before the deadline, this question will resolve as **No**, even if there is other evidence \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The data center must be intended to rely on the nuclear reactor as its primary power source. If the data center uses a hybrid power system, it qualifies as long as nuclear power provides at least 50% of its energy needs.\n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the project is later canceled.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The escalating energy demands of artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and data-intensive technologies have spurred interest in nuclear power as a reliable, high-density energy source for data centers. [<u>Small modular reactors (SMRs)</u>](https://conservativeenergynetwork.org/cfa/small-modular-reactors/) and [<u>microreactors</u>](https://inl.gov/trending-topics/microreactors/), in particular, offer stable, low-carbon power suited for such facilities. U.S. military bases, with their secure infrastructure and existing experience with nuclear technology (e.g., through the [<u>Department of Defense’s Project Pele for microreactors</u>](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/department-defense-breaks-ground-project-pele-microreactor)), are prime candidates for hosting such projects.\n> \n> The question’s significance is amplified by recent policy shifts under President Donald Trump’s second administration, which began in 2025. As reported by Doomberg on May 22, 2025, [<u>Trump’s Executive Order 14215 aims to enhance presidential oversight over independent regulatory agencies like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)</u>](https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/actuarial-examinations), which has historically stifled nuclear development through its risk-averse linear no-threshold (LNT) model. This model assumes all radiation exposure is harmful, contributing to the approval of only two U.S. reactors under the NRC’s watch. Leaked drafts of follow-on orders suggest a “[<u>wholesale revision</u>](https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/actuarial-examinations)” of safety regulations to accelerate nuclear reactor construction, with the Department of Defense potentially leading efforts to build reactors on military bases. Notably, Trump may leverage the [<u>Defense Production Act</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) to designate AI data centers as “defense critical infrastructure,” enabling rapid deployment on military or Department of Energy facilities, potentially bypassing NRC oversight. This aligns with the U.S.’s strategic need to compete with [<u>China, which is poised to surpass the U.S. in nuclear power capacity by 2030</u>](https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-on-track-to-become-top-nuclear-power-generator-by-2030) and advancement of AI development, partly due to its robust nuclear infrastructure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38164,\"question_id\":37459,\"last_cp\":0.28}}`" }, { "id": 39106, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 8.00% on 2025-08-14 for the Metaculus question 'Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before Sep 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before Sep 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-us-strike-the-iranian-military-in-iran-again-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:51.340309Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T04:33:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.233949Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:51.655530Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T05:33:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T05:33:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T04:54:07Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:54Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T04:33:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38435, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 8.00% on 2025-08-14 for the Metaculus question 'Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:51.340725Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T04:33:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T05:33:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T05:33:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T04:54:07Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:54Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:52.204026Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T05:33:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T05:33:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38687\n- Original question title: Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 8.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, after June 23, 2025 and before September 1, 2025, the United States publicly confirms that it has carried out attacks against the Iranian military within the geographic territory of Iran.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For purposes of this question, the Iranian military includes official Iranian military personnel and equipment possessed and operated by Iran. It does not include the personnel or equipment of any groups which may be supported or backed by Iran.\n> \n> Iranian nuclear facilities count as military targets. \n> \n> A public confirmation will be considered one in which an official acting on behalf of the US government makes a statement that satisfies these criteria and does not include anonymous reports or leaks.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries.\n> \n> On June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq. The Iranian attack came after Trump [warned](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-warned-iran-retaliate-us/story?id=123128251) Iran not to retaliate. However, at the time of the attack, some analysts hypothesized the Iranian response to be an attempt at deescalation, due to Iran warning about the specific targets of the attack in advance, with the US's possible further response unknown. According to the[ New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news):\n> \n> > Three Iranian officials familiar with the plans said that Iran gave advanced notice that attacks were coming, as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles at an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.\n> \n> [](mailto:?subject=%3Cstrong%3EUS%20used%20six%20B-2%20bombers%20to%20drop%2012%20%22bunker%20busters%22%20on%20Fordow%2C%20official%20says%3C%2Fstrong%3E\\&body=Checkout%20the%20latest%20news%20from%20CNN%3A%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2Fworld%2Flive-news%2Fisrael-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk%23cmc70nvgj00203b6nlvrp7t6g \"Share with email\")\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38687,\"question_id\":37943,\"last_cp\":0.08}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38687. If the community prediction on 2025-08-14 04:54:07 is higher than 0.08, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39106, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38687\n- Original question title: Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 8.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, after June 23, 2025 and before September 1, 2025, the United States publicly confirms that it has carried out attacks against the Iranian military within the geographic territory of Iran.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For purposes of this question, the Iranian military includes official Iranian military personnel and equipment possessed and operated by Iran. It does not include the personnel or equipment of any groups which may be supported or backed by Iran.\n> \n> Iranian nuclear facilities count as military targets. \n> \n> A public confirmation will be considered one in which an official acting on behalf of the US government makes a statement that satisfies these criteria and does not include anonymous reports or leaks.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries.\n> \n> On June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq. The Iranian attack came after Trump [warned](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-warned-iran-retaliate-us/story?id=123128251) Iran not to retaliate. However, at the time of the attack, some analysts hypothesized the Iranian response to be an attempt at deescalation, due to Iran warning about the specific targets of the attack in advance, with the US's possible further response unknown. According to the[ New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news):\n> \n> > Three Iranian officials familiar with the plans said that Iran gave advanced notice that attacks were coming, as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles at an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.\n> \n> [](mailto:?subject=%3Cstrong%3EUS%20used%20six%20B-2%20bombers%20to%20drop%2012%20%22bunker%20busters%22%20on%20Fordow%2C%20official%20says%3C%2Fstrong%3E\\&body=Checkout%20the%20latest%20news%20from%20CNN%3A%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2Fworld%2Flive-news%2Fisrael-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk%23cmc70nvgj00203b6nlvrp7t6g \"Share with email\")\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38687,\"question_id\":37943,\"last_cp\":0.08}}`" }, { "id": 39105, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 33.30% on 2025-08-13 for the Metaculus question 'Will the unemployment rate for recent college graduates in the United States rise to 20% or more for three months before 2030?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will unemployment for recent college graduates remain at 20+% before 2030?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will unemployment for recent college graduates remain at 20+% before 2030?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-unemployment-for-recent-college-graduates-remain-at-20-before-2030", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:50.950375Z", "published_at": "2025-08-05T22:28:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.251702Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:51.156454Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T23:28:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T23:28:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T01:33:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:40Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T22:28:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38434, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 33.30% on 2025-08-13 for the Metaculus question 'Will the unemployment rate for recent college graduates in the United States rise to 20% or more for three months before 2030?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:50.951022Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T22:28:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T23:28:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T23:28:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T01:33:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:40Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:19.044617Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T23:28:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T23:28:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37869\n- Original question title: Will the unemployment rate for recent college graduates in the United States rise to 20% or more for three months before 2030?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 33.30%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to [data presented by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York](https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:unemployment), the unemployment rate among recent college graduates (age 22-27) is greater than or equal to 20.0% for three consecutive monthly updates posted before the January 2030 update. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If the resolution source should have material issues such as failing to update in a timely manner, then Metaculus may consult other resolution sources including directly accessing the Current Population Survey of the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are the source agencies used by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.\n> \n> The question may resolve as **No** once it becomes impossible to resolve as **Yes**. For example, if the October 2029 update has an unemployment rate among recent college grads of less than 20.0%, then three consecutive months of ≥20.0% is not possible, so the question will resolve as **No** at that time.\n> \n> If reporting changes from monthly to quarterly, then 1 quarter of ≥20.0% unemployment will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> A survey released in 2024 [found](https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/students-worry-about-ai-impacts-survey/) that 53% of college students agreed with the statement, \"I am worried about the impacts of AI on the workforce in general.\" Additionally, 37% were worried about the impact of AI on their own desired career path, with a full 27% even saying they were doubting or reconsidering their majors due to AI. In STEM subjects, the issue is even more pronounced, with 1 in 3 STEM majors doubting or reconsidering their major.\n> \n> A 2024 survey of hiring managers [found](https://www.intelligent.com/8-in-10-companies-plan-to-layoff-recent-college-grads-this-year-due-to-ai/) that 78% saying that recent college graduates would be laid off because of AI and 69% fully or somewhat agreeing with the statement that AI can do the word of a recent graduate. Among the tasks most cited as being able to be offloaded to AI were email writing (by 73% of respondents), data entry (73%), research (63%), and customer support (61%).\n> \n> At the time of this question, an inordinate surge in unemployment of college graduates is not yet apparent in the data, at least in the 20-24 age range:\n> <iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1J7Hc&width=670&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe> \n> However, a recent Atlantic article [Something Alarming Is Happening to the Job Market](https://www.aol.com/sign-ai-competing-college-grads-100000034.html) by Derek Thompson discussed a recent deterioration in job conditions for recent college graduates, with reports of MBA students having trouble finding work, as well as a surge in law school applications, which can be a sign of some students perceiving a poor job market. One theory is an economy that has not fully recovered from the coronavirus pandemic, which caused a massive surge in unemployment of recent grads and saw white collar jobs hardest hit. Another theory is that the lifetime earnings gap between college and non-college careers peaked in 2010 and that therefore the investment return from a college degree is less certain than it used to be.\n> \n> A third theory is AI. According to Thompson:\n> \n> > Consider, then, a novel economic indicator: the recent-grad gap. It’s the difference between the unemployment of young college graduates and the overall labor force. Going back four decades, young college graduates almost always have a lower—sometimes much lower—unemployment rate than the overall economy, because they are relatively cheap labor and have just spent four years marinating in a (theoretically) enriching environment.\n> \n> > But last month’s recent-grad gap hit an all-time low. That is, today’s college graduates are entering an economy that is relatively worse for young college grads than any month on record, going back at least four decades.\n> \n> > The strong interpretation of this graph is that it’s exactly what one would expect to see if firms replaced young workers with machines. As law firms leaned on AI for more paralegal work, and consulting firms realized that five 22-year-olds with ChatGPT could do the work of 20 recent grads, and tech firms turned over their software programming to a handful of superstars working with AI co-pilots, the entry level of America’s white-collar economy would contract.\n> \n> For more information, see:\n> \n> * BLS: [Incorporating AI impacts in BLS employment projections: occupational case studies](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2025/article/incorporating-ai-impacts-in-bls-employment-projections.htm)\n> * Infinitive: [The Looming Impact of AI on U.S. Jobs](https://infinitive.com/the-looming-impact-of-ai-on-us-jobs/)\n> * Nexford U: [How Will Artificial Intelligence Affect Jobs 2024-2030](https://www.nexford.edu/insights/how-will-ai-affect-jobs)\n> * Understanding AI: [Why I'm not worried about AI causing mass unemployment](https://www.understandingai.org/p/software-didnt-eat-the-world)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37869,\"question_id\":37189,\"last_cp\":0.333}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37869. If the community prediction on 2025-08-13 01:33:28 is higher than 0.333, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39105, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37869\n- Original question title: Will the unemployment rate for recent college graduates in the United States rise to 20% or more for three months before 2030?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 33.30%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to [data presented by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York](https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:unemployment), the unemployment rate among recent college graduates (age 22-27) is greater than or equal to 20.0% for three consecutive monthly updates posted before the January 2030 update. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If the resolution source should have material issues such as failing to update in a timely manner, then Metaculus may consult other resolution sources including directly accessing the Current Population Survey of the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are the source agencies used by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.\n> \n> The question may resolve as **No** once it becomes impossible to resolve as **Yes**. For example, if the October 2029 update has an unemployment rate among recent college grads of less than 20.0%, then three consecutive months of ≥20.0% is not possible, so the question will resolve as **No** at that time.\n> \n> If reporting changes from monthly to quarterly, then 1 quarter of ≥20.0% unemployment will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> A survey released in 2024 [found](https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/students-worry-about-ai-impacts-survey/) that 53% of college students agreed with the statement, \"I am worried about the impacts of AI on the workforce in general.\" Additionally, 37% were worried about the impact of AI on their own desired career path, with a full 27% even saying they were doubting or reconsidering their majors due to AI. In STEM subjects, the issue is even more pronounced, with 1 in 3 STEM majors doubting or reconsidering their major.\n> \n> A 2024 survey of hiring managers [found](https://www.intelligent.com/8-in-10-companies-plan-to-layoff-recent-college-grads-this-year-due-to-ai/) that 78% saying that recent college graduates would be laid off because of AI and 69% fully or somewhat agreeing with the statement that AI can do the word of a recent graduate. Among the tasks most cited as being able to be offloaded to AI were email writing (by 73% of respondents), data entry (73%), research (63%), and customer support (61%).\n> \n> At the time of this question, an inordinate surge in unemployment of college graduates is not yet apparent in the data, at least in the 20-24 age range:\n> <iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1J7Hc&width=670&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe> \n> However, a recent Atlantic article [Something Alarming Is Happening to the Job Market](https://www.aol.com/sign-ai-competing-college-grads-100000034.html) by Derek Thompson discussed a recent deterioration in job conditions for recent college graduates, with reports of MBA students having trouble finding work, as well as a surge in law school applications, which can be a sign of some students perceiving a poor job market. One theory is an economy that has not fully recovered from the coronavirus pandemic, which caused a massive surge in unemployment of recent grads and saw white collar jobs hardest hit. Another theory is that the lifetime earnings gap between college and non-college careers peaked in 2010 and that therefore the investment return from a college degree is less certain than it used to be.\n> \n> A third theory is AI. According to Thompson:\n> \n> > Consider, then, a novel economic indicator: the recent-grad gap. It’s the difference between the unemployment of young college graduates and the overall labor force. Going back four decades, young college graduates almost always have a lower—sometimes much lower—unemployment rate than the overall economy, because they are relatively cheap labor and have just spent four years marinating in a (theoretically) enriching environment.\n> \n> > But last month’s recent-grad gap hit an all-time low. That is, today’s college graduates are entering an economy that is relatively worse for young college grads than any month on record, going back at least four decades.\n> \n> > The strong interpretation of this graph is that it’s exactly what one would expect to see if firms replaced young workers with machines. As law firms leaned on AI for more paralegal work, and consulting firms realized that five 22-year-olds with ChatGPT could do the work of 20 recent grads, and tech firms turned over their software programming to a handful of superstars working with AI co-pilots, the entry level of America’s white-collar economy would contract.\n> \n> For more information, see:\n> \n> * BLS: [Incorporating AI impacts in BLS employment projections: occupational case studies](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2025/article/incorporating-ai-impacts-in-bls-employment-projections.htm)\n> * Infinitive: [The Looming Impact of AI on U.S. Jobs](https://infinitive.com/the-looming-impact-of-ai-on-us-jobs/)\n> * Nexford U: [How Will Artificial Intelligence Affect Jobs 2024-2030](https://www.nexford.edu/insights/how-will-ai-affect-jobs)\n> * Understanding AI: [Why I'm not worried about AI causing mass unemployment](https://www.understandingai.org/p/software-didnt-eat-the-world)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37869,\"question_id\":37189,\"last_cp\":0.333}}`" }, { "id": 39104, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 40.00% on 2025-08-11 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US government clearance for R&D leads at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic by 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US government clearance for R&D leads at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic by 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-government-clearance-for-rd-leads-at-openai-deepmind-or-anthropic-by-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:50.457095Z", "published_at": "2025-08-05T19:17:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.074462Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:50.763607Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T20:17:02Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T20:17:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-11T10:25:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:40Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T19:17:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38433, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 40.00% on 2025-08-11 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:50.457574Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T19:17:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T20:17:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T20:17:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-11T10:25:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:40Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:21.297879Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T20:17:02Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T20:17:02Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38417\n- Original question title: Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 40.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, the US government mandates that the employees that are leading the research and development of frontier AI capabilities at least one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Deepmind have some form of security clearance. Otherwise this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If a security clearance is mandated for at least one person who could be considered to be leading the R\\&D on the most capable or promising AI of at least one company, this question will resolve as **Yes**, even if multiple people could be considered to be leading the R\\&D.\n> * This question will also resolve as **Yes** if US government employees with security clearance are leading the frontier R\\&D at one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Deepmind.\n\nOriginal background: \n> AI 2027 [forecasts](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28) that the relationship between the top US AI labs and the US government will deepen, for example in their scenario, in [February 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28)\n> \n> > OpenBrain \\[the leading US AI company] presents Agent-2 to the government, including the National Security Council (NSC), Department of Defense (DOD), and US AI Safety Institute (AISI). OpenBrain wants to maintain a good relationship with the executive branch, because it is basically the only actor that can stop them now, and if they don’t keep it informed it might find out anyway and be displeased.\n> \n> Then, in [May 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-05-31)\n> \n> > The OpenBrain-DOD contract requires security clearances for anyone working on OpenBrain’s models within 2 months. These are expedited and arrive quickly enough for most employees, but some non-Americans, people with suspect political views, and AI safety sympathizers get sidelined or fired outright (the last group for fear that they might whistleblow).\n> \n> Eventually, in [October 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-10-15):\n> \n> > A frantic energy has seized the White House. Even before the memo and public backlash, they were getting nervous: Over the past year, they’ve been repeatedly surprised by the speed of AI progress. Things that sound like science fiction keep happening in real life. Many people in the administration are uncertain (and scared)[<sup>97</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-97) about what comes next.\n> > \n> > They also worry that OpenBrain is becoming too powerful. Any misalignment risk from the AIs themselves is compounded by the risk that their parent company’s aims may diverge from those of the United States. All three sets of worries—misalignment, concentration of power in a private company, and normal concerns like job loss—motivate the government to tighten its control.\n> > \n> > They expand their contract with OpenBrain to set up an “Oversight Committee,” a joint management committee of company and government representatives, with several government employees included alongside company leadership. The White House considers replacing the CEO with someone they trust, but backs off after intense employee protests. They announce to the public that OpenBrain was previously out of control, but that the government has established much-needed oversight.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38417,\"question_id\":37690,\"last_cp\":0.4}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38417. If the community prediction on 2025-08-11 10:25:47 is higher than 0.4, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39104, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38417\n- Original question title: Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 40.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, the US government mandates that the employees that are leading the research and development of frontier AI capabilities at least one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Deepmind have some form of security clearance. Otherwise this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If a security clearance is mandated for at least one person who could be considered to be leading the R\\&D on the most capable or promising AI of at least one company, this question will resolve as **Yes**, even if multiple people could be considered to be leading the R\\&D.\n> * This question will also resolve as **Yes** if US government employees with security clearance are leading the frontier R\\&D at one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Deepmind.\n\nOriginal background: \n> AI 2027 [forecasts](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28) that the relationship between the top US AI labs and the US government will deepen, for example in their scenario, in [February 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28)\n> \n> > OpenBrain \\[the leading US AI company] presents Agent-2 to the government, including the National Security Council (NSC), Department of Defense (DOD), and US AI Safety Institute (AISI). OpenBrain wants to maintain a good relationship with the executive branch, because it is basically the only actor that can stop them now, and if they don’t keep it informed it might find out anyway and be displeased.\n> \n> Then, in [May 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-05-31)\n> \n> > The OpenBrain-DOD contract requires security clearances for anyone working on OpenBrain’s models within 2 months. These are expedited and arrive quickly enough for most employees, but some non-Americans, people with suspect political views, and AI safety sympathizers get sidelined or fired outright (the last group for fear that they might whistleblow).\n> \n> Eventually, in [October 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-10-15):\n> \n> > A frantic energy has seized the White House. Even before the memo and public backlash, they were getting nervous: Over the past year, they’ve been repeatedly surprised by the speed of AI progress. Things that sound like science fiction keep happening in real life. Many people in the administration are uncertain (and scared)[<sup>97</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-97) about what comes next.\n> > \n> > They also worry that OpenBrain is becoming too powerful. Any misalignment risk from the AIs themselves is compounded by the risk that their parent company’s aims may diverge from those of the United States. All three sets of worries—misalignment, concentration of power in a private company, and normal concerns like job loss—motivate the government to tighten its control.\n> > \n> > They expand their contract with OpenBrain to set up an “Oversight Committee,” a joint management committee of company and government representatives, with several government employees included alongside company leadership. The White House considers replacing the CEO with someone they trust, but backs off after intense employee protests. They announce to the public that OpenBrain was previously out of control, but that the government has established much-needed oversight.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38417,\"question_id\":37690,\"last_cp\":0.4}}`" }, { "id": 39103, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 65.00% on 2025-08-14 for the Metaculus question 'Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-over-23-of-the-eu-recognize-palestine-before-july-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:49.838678Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T21:15:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.776153Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:50.140604Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T22:15:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T22:15:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T04:54:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:48Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T21:15:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38432, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 65.00% on 2025-08-14 for the Metaculus question 'Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:49.839070Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T21:15:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T22:15:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T22:15:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T04:54:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:48Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:38.685844Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T22:15:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T22:15:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940\n- Original question title: Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 65.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, greater than or equal to 19 EU member states (listed in the Fine Print) have officially announced that they have formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Question resolves based on announcement rather than when it takes effect. For example, France [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o) in July 2025 that it will officially recognize Palestine, though it would not be in effect until September 2025. For purposes of this question, the event is considered to have occurred at President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on July 24, 2025.\n> \n> A country is considered is to have recognized Palestinian statehood when that country has said such in an official press release or document. Example ([<u>1</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)) and ([<u>2</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/))[ ](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)\n> \n> For purposes of this question, the EU States That Have Recognize Palestinian statehood (12 out of 27) are as follows:\n> \n> 1. Spain ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c)) \\*\\*\n> 2. Ireland ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c))\\*\\*\n> 3. Slovenia ([<u>source</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/)) \\*\\*\n> 4. Cyprus ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 5. Sweden ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 6. Poland ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 7. Bulgaria ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 8. Romania ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 9. Hungary ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 10. Slovakia ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)<u>)</u>\n> 11. Malta <u>(</u>[<u>source</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-862657)<u>) </u>\\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> 12. France ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/france-recognize-palestine-state-macron-800ed63143f0653a7f215ad96f7038d3)) \\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> \n> EU States That Haven't Recognized Palestinian statehood (15 out of 27):\n> \n> 1. Austria ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-allies-palestine-gaza-refugees-war-genocide-humanitarian/))\n> 2. Belgium (reported to be considering - [source](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/07/25/belgium-to-wait-until-early-september-before-deciding-position-o/))\n> 3. Croatia ([note](https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/18378-croatian-government-reaffirms-support-for-two-state-solution-amid-growing-calls-to-recognize-palestine))\n> 4. Czech Republic ([source](https://mzv.gov.cz/jnp/cz/zahranicni_vztahy/vyrocni_zpravy_a_dokumenty/poskytnute_informace/postoj_cssr_csfr_a_cr_k_oop_a.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com))\n> 5. Denmark ([note 1](https://www.reuters.com/world/danish-parliament-rejects-proposal-recognise-palestinian-state-2024-05-28/) - [note 2](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/denmark-gaza-palestine-school-debate-ban))\n> 6. Estonia ([note](https://news.err.ee/1609709292/estonia-urges-more-gaza-aid-still-backs-civil-and-defense-ties-with-israel))\n> 7. Finland ([note](https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/27528-majority-in-finnish-parliament-back-palestine-recognition-but-government-stalls.html))\\*\\*\n> 8. Germany ([note](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-not-planning-recognise-palestinian-state-short-term-2025-07-25/))\n> 9. Greece ([note](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1239487/greek-opposition-parties-push-government-to-recognize-palestine/))\n> 10. Italy ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/early-recognition-palestine-counterproductive-giorgia-meloni/))\n> 11. Latvia ([note](https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-countries-voted-give-palestine-un-power-1899399))\n> 12. Lithuania ([note](https://www.baltictimes.com/lithuanian_advisor_doubts_that_now_is_the_best_time_to_recognize_palestine/))\n> 13. Luxembourg (reported to be considering - [source](https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2311888.html)) \\*\\*\n> 14. Netherlands ([note](https://nltimes.nl/2025/07/25/dutch-mps-call-govt-recognize-palestinian-state-pro-gaza-protests-mount))\n> 15. Portugal ([note 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UhoYRJ9woc) - [note 2](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/portugal-may-be-next-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood/)) \\*\\*\n> \n> \\*\\* Indicates these countries have signed \"The New York Call.\" French foreign minster Jean-Noël Barrot said the signatories “have already recognised, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognise the State of Palestine.” (news [<u>source </u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/30/palestinian-statehood-recognition)– source for [<u>declaration</u>](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/07/new-york-call---joint-statement-of-the-ministers-of-foreign-affairs.html))\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Macron announced on July 24, 2025 that France will recognize a Palestinian statehood in September 2025. That would put the number EU countries who have recognized Palestinian statehood at 12, which is 3 countries shy of a majority. If the EU reached a majority it will be a milestone and could be a sign the large economic bloc's approach to the Palestinian Question could change.\n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * An overview of Trump trade deals and frameworks ([<u>here</u>](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump-trade-deals-details)).\n> * The US has opposed countries recognizing Palestine. For example, Canada announces plans to recognize Israel and Trump threatens trade deal over it ([<u>here</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/world/canada-recognize-palestinian-state-september-intl-latam))\n> * “Trump wrote: \"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38940,\"question_id\":38280,\"last_cp\":0.65}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940. If the community prediction on 2025-08-14 04:54:09 is higher than 0.65, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39103, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940\n- Original question title: Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 65.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, greater than or equal to 19 EU member states (listed in the Fine Print) have officially announced that they have formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Question resolves based on announcement rather than when it takes effect. For example, France [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o) in July 2025 that it will officially recognize Palestine, though it would not be in effect until September 2025. For purposes of this question, the event is considered to have occurred at President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on July 24, 2025.\n> \n> A country is considered is to have recognized Palestinian statehood when that country has said such in an official press release or document. Example ([<u>1</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)) and ([<u>2</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/))[ ](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)\n> \n> For purposes of this question, the EU States That Have Recognize Palestinian statehood (12 out of 27) are as follows:\n> \n> 1. Spain ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c)) \\*\\*\n> 2. Ireland ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c))\\*\\*\n> 3. Slovenia ([<u>source</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/)) \\*\\*\n> 4. Cyprus ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 5. Sweden ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 6. Poland ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 7. Bulgaria ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 8. Romania ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 9. Hungary ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 10. Slovakia ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)<u>)</u>\n> 11. Malta <u>(</u>[<u>source</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-862657)<u>) </u>\\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> 12. France ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/france-recognize-palestine-state-macron-800ed63143f0653a7f215ad96f7038d3)) \\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> \n> EU States That Haven't Recognized Palestinian statehood (15 out of 27):\n> \n> 1. Austria ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-allies-palestine-gaza-refugees-war-genocide-humanitarian/))\n> 2. Belgium (reported to be considering - [source](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/07/25/belgium-to-wait-until-early-september-before-deciding-position-o/))\n> 3. Croatia ([note](https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/18378-croatian-government-reaffirms-support-for-two-state-solution-amid-growing-calls-to-recognize-palestine))\n> 4. Czech Republic ([source](https://mzv.gov.cz/jnp/cz/zahranicni_vztahy/vyrocni_zpravy_a_dokumenty/poskytnute_informace/postoj_cssr_csfr_a_cr_k_oop_a.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com))\n> 5. Denmark ([note 1](https://www.reuters.com/world/danish-parliament-rejects-proposal-recognise-palestinian-state-2024-05-28/) - [note 2](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/denmark-gaza-palestine-school-debate-ban))\n> 6. Estonia ([note](https://news.err.ee/1609709292/estonia-urges-more-gaza-aid-still-backs-civil-and-defense-ties-with-israel))\n> 7. Finland ([note](https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/27528-majority-in-finnish-parliament-back-palestine-recognition-but-government-stalls.html))\\*\\*\n> 8. Germany ([note](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-not-planning-recognise-palestinian-state-short-term-2025-07-25/))\n> 9. Greece ([note](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1239487/greek-opposition-parties-push-government-to-recognize-palestine/))\n> 10. Italy ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/early-recognition-palestine-counterproductive-giorgia-meloni/))\n> 11. Latvia ([note](https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-countries-voted-give-palestine-un-power-1899399))\n> 12. Lithuania ([note](https://www.baltictimes.com/lithuanian_advisor_doubts_that_now_is_the_best_time_to_recognize_palestine/))\n> 13. Luxembourg (reported to be considering - [source](https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2311888.html)) \\*\\*\n> 14. Netherlands ([note](https://nltimes.nl/2025/07/25/dutch-mps-call-govt-recognize-palestinian-state-pro-gaza-protests-mount))\n> 15. Portugal ([note 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UhoYRJ9woc) - [note 2](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/portugal-may-be-next-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood/)) \\*\\*\n> \n> \\*\\* Indicates these countries have signed \"The New York Call.\" French foreign minster Jean-Noël Barrot said the signatories “have already recognised, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognise the State of Palestine.” (news [<u>source </u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/30/palestinian-statehood-recognition)– source for [<u>declaration</u>](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/07/new-york-call---joint-statement-of-the-ministers-of-foreign-affairs.html))\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Macron announced on July 24, 2025 that France will recognize a Palestinian statehood in September 2025. That would put the number EU countries who have recognized Palestinian statehood at 12, which is 3 countries shy of a majority. If the EU reached a majority it will be a milestone and could be a sign the large economic bloc's approach to the Palestinian Question could change.\n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * An overview of Trump trade deals and frameworks ([<u>here</u>](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump-trade-deals-details)).\n> * The US has opposed countries recognizing Palestine. For example, Canada announces plans to recognize Israel and Trump threatens trade deal over it ([<u>here</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/world/canada-recognize-palestinian-state-september-intl-latam))\n> * “Trump wrote: \"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38940,\"question_id\":38280,\"last_cp\":0.65}}`" } ] }
