Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=180
{ "count": 6246, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=200", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=160", "results": [ { "id": 39980, "title": "Will the interest in \"meta smart glasses leak\" be greater on 2025-09-24 than on 2025-09-16 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"meta smart glasses leak\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"meta smart glasses leak\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-meta-smart-glasses-leak-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:31.103093Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T08:25:38Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:04.575401Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:31.527083Z", "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T09:55:38Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T09:55:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T17:12:26Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T08:25:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39521, "title": "Will the interest in \"meta smart glasses leak\" be greater on 2025-09-24 than on 2025-09-16 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:31.103613Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T08:25:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-16T09:55:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-16T09:55:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T17:12:26Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:04.041680Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T09:55:38Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T09:55:38Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “meta smart glasses leak” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 100; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=meta%20smart%20glasses%20leak&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"meta smart glasses leak\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-16\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-24\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=meta%20smart%20glasses%20leak&date=2025-08-25%202025-09-24\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves \"Yes\" if the value on the timeline found at [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=meta%20smart%20glasses%20leak&date=2025-08-25%202025-09-24](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=meta%20smart%20glasses%20leak&date=2025-08-25%202025-09-24) representing 2025-09-24 is greater than the value at 2025-09-16. If it stays the same or decreases, it resolves to \"No\".", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"meta smart glasses leak\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-25 2025-09-24\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39980, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758016244.566843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758016244.566843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2691237541528239 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 15.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 57.553057203877174, "peer_score": 8.516482818543677, "coverage": 0.9592317577644631, "relative_legacy_score": -0.007908592887891823, "weighted_coverage": 0.9592317577644631, "spot_peer_score": 8.95103993760117, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 57.553057203877174, "peer_archived_score": 8.516482818543677, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.007908592887891823, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.95103993760117, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “meta smart glasses leak” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 100; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=meta%20smart%20glasses%20leak&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"meta smart glasses leak\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-16\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-24\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=meta%20smart%20glasses%20leak&date=2025-08-25%202025-09-24\"}}`" }, { "id": 39979, "title": "Will the interest in \"netanyahu\" be greater on 2025-09-26 than on 2025-09-16 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"netanyahu\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"netanyahu\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-netanyahu-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:30.285901Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T19:13:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:05.572173Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:30.671034Z", "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T20:43:36Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T20:43:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T21:29:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T19:13:36Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39520, "title": "Will the interest in \"netanyahu\" be greater on 2025-09-26 than on 2025-09-16 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:30.286384Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T19:13:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-16T20:43:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-16T20:43:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T21:29:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:05.080234Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T20:43:36Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T20:43:36Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “netanyahu” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 100; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=netanyahu&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"netanyahu\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-16\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-26\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=netanyahu&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves \"Yes\" if the value on the timeline found at [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=netanyahu&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=netanyahu&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26) representing 2025-09-26 is greater than the value at 2025-09-16. If it stays the same or decreases, it resolves to \"No\".", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"netanyahu\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-27 2025-09-26\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39979, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758054190.855548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758054190.855548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3138323654665118 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -69.19372444980615, "peer_score": 2.558725075529839, "coverage": 0.9342012261019813, "relative_legacy_score": -0.007542263724564436, "weighted_coverage": 0.9342012261019813, "spot_peer_score": 3.1627115817193756, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "baseline_archived_score": -69.19372444980615, "peer_archived_score": 2.558725075529839, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.007542263724564436, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.1627115817193756, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “netanyahu” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 100; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=netanyahu&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"netanyahu\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-16\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-26\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=netanyahu&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26\"}}`" }, { "id": 39978, "title": "Will the interest in \"erika kirk\" be greater on 2025-09-26 than on 2025-09-16 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"erika kirk\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"erika kirk\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-erika-kirk-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:29.620168Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T20:36:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:06.606620Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:29.896128Z", "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T22:06:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T22:06:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T18:12:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T20:36:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39519, "title": "Will the interest in \"erika kirk\" be greater on 2025-09-26 than on 2025-09-16 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T03:38:29.620672Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T20:36:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-16T22:06:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-16T22:06:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T18:12:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:05.822671Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T22:06:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T22:06:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “erika kirk” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 41; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=erika%20kirk&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"erika kirk\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-16\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-26\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=erika%20kirk&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves \"Yes\" if the value on the timeline found at [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=erika%20kirk&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=erika%20kirk&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26) representing 2025-09-26 is greater than the value at 2025-09-16. If it stays the same or decreases, it resolves to \"No\".", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"erika kirk\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-27 2025-09-26\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39978, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758059278.011552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758059278.011552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.725, 0.275 ], "means": [ 0.32944214955058315 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 17.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “erika kirk” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 41; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=erika%20kirk&date=2025-08-17%202025-09-16).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"erika kirk\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-16\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-26\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=erika%20kirk&date=2025-08-27%202025-09-26\"}}`" }, { "id": 39976, "title": "Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?", "short_title": "Will Zelenskyy cede land for peace?", "url_title": "Will Zelenskyy cede land for peace?", "slug": "will-zelenskyy-cede-land-for-peace", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T16:14:54.975345Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T01:16:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T03:14:59.119912Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T01:17:55.682301Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T01:16:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T20:23:50.620868Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T20:23:50.620868Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39518, "title": "Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T16:14:54.975789Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T01:16:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T01:16:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T01:16:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the* [*Verity controversy: Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?*](https://www.improvethenews.org/controversy/will-zelenskyy-swap-territory-cede-land-to-end-the-war)\n\nSince Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukraine and its [<u>President **Volodymyr Zelenskyy** have steadfastly maintained that **any territorial changes require full Ukrainian consent**</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-does-ukraines-constitution-say-about-territorial-changes-2025-08-18/), in line with constitutional provisions that mandate a nationwide referendum for altering national borders.\n\nDespite intense diplomatic pressure—most notably from U.S. President **Donald Trump**, who has publicly suggested that Ukraine could agree to **“some swapping of territories to the betterment of both”** sides—t[<u>he Ukrainian leadership has vocally resisted territory concessions.</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-putin-meet-discuss-ukraine-peace-deal-alaska-2025-08-09/) Zelenskyy emphasized that **“Ukrainians will not give their land to the occupiers.”**\n\nPublic debate in Ukraine reflects deep divisions. While war fatigue has driven some citizens to favor a cessation of hostilities—even if it means territorial losses—many others view any such trade-off as a betrayal of sovereignty and a strategic vulnerability. Analysts warn that relinquishing strategic regions like the highly fortified Donbas could invite future Russian incursions.\n\nInternationally, Trump and others have weighed territorial swaps as part of peace negotiations, but **Ukrainian officials firmly reject any solutions imposed without Kyiv’s participation**, invoking the principle of [**<u>“Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”</u>**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nothing_about_Ukraine_without_Ukraine?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nIn sum, [**<u>President Zelenskyy continues to assert that Ukraine will not cede any land</u>**](https://theweek.com/world-news/will-ukraine-trade-territory-for-peace)—particularly not by imposing terms or external pressure—while upholding constitutional and public opposition to such proposals.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, while serving as President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy **formally agrees to transfer, cede, or permanently recognize Russian control of any part of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory** (as of February 23, 2022) as part of an official **peace agreement or negotiated settlement** to end the ongoing war with Russia.\n\nTo qualify:\n\n* The cession or recognition must be confirmed by **official announcements** from the Ukrainian government, international treaties, or credible reporting from recognized global media (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, Washington Post).\n* It must involve **permanent status**, not temporary ceasefire lines, armistice zones, or de facto occupation without formal recognition.\n* Any agreement must be clearly tied to the **termination of hostilities or establishment of a peace framework**.\n* If Zelenskyy submits the decision to a **nationwide referendum** (as required by Ukraine’s constitution) and the referendum passes, it will also qualify as a “Yes.”\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if:\n\n* No official cession or recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory occurs before Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine; or\n* The war between Russia and Ukraine ends without Zelenskyy formally ceding territory.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39976, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761534888.348847, "end_time": 1767253013.771, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761534888.348847, "end_time": 1767253013.771, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.3044713295339103 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5584580948134545, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5322233034377564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 1.3221323743639974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.43131426209606216, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the* [*Verity controversy: Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?*](https://www.improvethenews.org/controversy/will-zelenskyy-swap-territory-cede-land-to-end-the-war)\n\nSince Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukraine and its [<u>President **Volodymyr Zelenskyy** have steadfastly maintained that **any territorial changes require full Ukrainian consent**</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-does-ukraines-constitution-say-about-territorial-changes-2025-08-18/), in line with constitutional provisions that mandate a nationwide referendum for altering national borders.\n\nDespite intense diplomatic pressure—most notably from U.S. President **Donald Trump**, who has publicly suggested that Ukraine could agree to **“some swapping of territories to the betterment of both”** sides—t[<u>he Ukrainian leadership has vocally resisted territory concessions.</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-putin-meet-discuss-ukraine-peace-deal-alaska-2025-08-09/) Zelenskyy emphasized that **“Ukrainians will not give their land to the occupiers.”**\n\nPublic debate in Ukraine reflects deep divisions. While war fatigue has driven some citizens to favor a cessation of hostilities—even if it means territorial losses—many others view any such trade-off as a betrayal of sovereignty and a strategic vulnerability. Analysts warn that relinquishing strategic regions like the highly fortified Donbas could invite future Russian incursions.\n\nInternationally, Trump and others have weighed territorial swaps as part of peace negotiations, but **Ukrainian officials firmly reject any solutions imposed without Kyiv’s participation**, invoking the principle of [**<u>“Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”</u>**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nothing_about_Ukraine_without_Ukraine?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nIn sum, [**<u>President Zelenskyy continues to assert that Ukraine will not cede any land</u>**](https://theweek.com/world-news/will-ukraine-trade-territory-for-peace)—particularly not by imposing terms or external pressure—while upholding constitutional and public opposition to such proposals." }, { "id": 39975, "title": "Will the US Admit a New State to the Union before 2036?", "short_title": "Will US add new state before 2036?", "url_title": "Will US add new state before 2036?", "slug": "will-us-add-new-state-before-2036", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T16:11:31.457835Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T10:18:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T01:13:57.044495Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T10:18:42.038503Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T10:18:20Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39517, "title": "Will the US Admit a New State to the Union before 2036?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T16:11:31.458262Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T10:18:20Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T09:18:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T09:18:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US Admit a New State to the Union?*\n\nThe United States has consisted of 50 states since [<u>Hawaii was admitted in 1959</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act), marking the last expansion of the Union. Under Article IV, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution, Congress holds the authority to admit new states, provided both houses pass legislation and the president signs it into law. While new statehood is constitutionally possible, it is politically rare and often contentious.\n\nIn recent decades, the most prominent statehood movements have emerged from Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico. Advocates argue that both jurisdictions—home to millions of U.S. citizens—lack voting representation in Congress and full political equality. [<u>In 2020, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to grant D.C. statehood</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/51) for the first time in history, though it stalled in the Senate. Supporters frame it as a civil rights issue; opponents claim it would be unconstitutional without a constitutional amendment and politically motivated, as D.C. leans heavily Democratic.\n\nPuerto Rico has held multiple non-binding referendums on statehood, the most recent in November 2020, in which a narrow majority (52.5 %) voted “Yes” to becoming a state. However, Congress has not acted on that result. [<u>In 2022, the House passed the Puerto Rico Status Act, which would allow a binding referendum offering options such as statehood, </u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8393)independence, or free association—but the bill failed to advance in the Senate.\n\nStatehood debates are deeply partisan. Many Republicans oppose D.C. or Puerto Rico statehood due to the likelihood of adding reliably Democratic senators and representatives. [<u>Conversely, Democrats argue that denying statehood perpetuates disenfranchisement. Some legal scholars also question whether Congress can unilaterally grant statehood to D.C. without amending the Constitution, given its designation as a federal district.</u>](https://www.heritage.org/political-process/report/dc-statehood-not-without-constitutional-amendment)\n\nWhile the legal pathway for admitting a new state is clear, the political obstacles are steep, especially in a polarized Congress. Without bipartisan support, or unified party control of both chambers and the presidency, the prospect of admitting a new U.S. state remains uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the United States formally admits a new state into the Union before 2036.", "fine_print": "Discussions, referendums, bills under debate, or partial measures (such as non-voting congressional delegates or enhanced territorial status) do not qualify for this question.", "post_id": 39975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761095626.160936, "end_time": 1791692076.417, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761095626.160936, "end_time": 1791692076.417, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.15309006463558766 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US Admit a New State to the Union?*\n\nThe United States has consisted of 50 states since [<u>Hawaii was admitted in 1959</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act), marking the last expansion of the Union. Under Article IV, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution, Congress holds the authority to admit new states, provided both houses pass legislation and the president signs it into law. While new statehood is constitutionally possible, it is politically rare and often contentious.\n\nIn recent decades, the most prominent statehood movements have emerged from Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico. Advocates argue that both jurisdictions—home to millions of U.S. citizens—lack voting representation in Congress and full political equality. [<u>In 2020, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to grant D.C. statehood</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/51) for the first time in history, though it stalled in the Senate. Supporters frame it as a civil rights issue; opponents claim it would be unconstitutional without a constitutional amendment and politically motivated, as D.C. leans heavily Democratic.\n\nPuerto Rico has held multiple non-binding referendums on statehood, the most recent in November 2020, in which a narrow majority (52.5 %) voted “Yes” to becoming a state. However, Congress has not acted on that result. [<u>In 2022, the House passed the Puerto Rico Status Act, which would allow a binding referendum offering options such as statehood, </u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8393)independence, or free association—but the bill failed to advance in the Senate.\n\nStatehood debates are deeply partisan. Many Republicans oppose D.C. or Puerto Rico statehood due to the likelihood of adding reliably Democratic senators and representatives. [<u>Conversely, Democrats argue that denying statehood perpetuates disenfranchisement. Some legal scholars also question whether Congress can unilaterally grant statehood to D.C. without amending the Constitution, given its designation as a federal district.</u>](https://www.heritage.org/political-process/report/dc-statehood-not-without-constitutional-amendment)\n\nWhile the legal pathway for admitting a new state is clear, the political obstacles are steep, especially in a polarized Congress. Without bipartisan support, or unified party control of both chambers and the presidency, the prospect of admitting a new U.S. state remains uncertain." }, { "id": 39970, "title": "Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Balendra Shah)", "short_title": "Who will be the next prime minister of Nepal?", "url_title": "Who will be the next prime minister of Nepal?", "slug": "who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-nepal", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:57.149589Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T10:42:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T12:13:00.354722Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:57.481870Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-17T10:42:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T20:17:48.800837Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T20:17:48.800837Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39513, "title": "Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Balendra Shah)", "created_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:57.150084Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T10:42:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Federal: [Who could be Nepal's next prime minister? Here are 5 top contenders](https://thefederal.com/category/international/nepals-next-prime-minister-after-olis-controversial-exit-206263)\n\n> Scuffles were reported among Gen-Z factions backing different contenders outside the Nepal Army headquarters in Kathmandu on Wednesday evening, as talks to pick an interim leader after the violent overthrow of the government extended into the third day.\n\n> KP Sharma Oli resigned as prime minister on Tuesday, leaving the post vacant while the anti-corruption revolt continues without a clear leader.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39851,\"question_id\":39395}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'Balendra Shah'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** for the individual who, after September 11, 2025 and before January 1, 2026 takes the [oath](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nepal_2016#s852) of office and secrecy as the new [Prime Minister of Nepal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Nepal) and wins a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives as required by [section 76](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nepal_2016#s795) of the Constitution of Nepal. The question resolves as **No** for everyone else. If none of the listed candidates fulfills the criteria during that time period, then the question resolves as **No** for every option.", "fine_print": "This is a Group question, so you do not have to assess probabilities for every option. More options may be added after the question opens, if there is [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting that a particular individual has a material probability of coming the next PM of Nepal.", "post_id": 39970, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758111068.503561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758111068.503561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10542151730323887 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 19.0, 9.0, 5.0, 3.0, 17.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Federal: [Who could be Nepal's next prime minister? Here are 5 top contenders](https://thefederal.com/category/international/nepals-next-prime-minister-after-olis-controversial-exit-206263)\n\n> Scuffles were reported among Gen-Z factions backing different contenders outside the Nepal Army headquarters in Kathmandu on Wednesday evening, as talks to pick an interim leader after the violent overthrow of the government extended into the third day.\n\n> KP Sharma Oli resigned as prime minister on Tuesday, leaving the post vacant while the anti-corruption revolt continues without a clear leader.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39851,\"question_id\":39395}}`" }, { "id": 39967, "title": "Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Kulman Ghising)", "short_title": "Who will be the next prime minister of Nepal?", "url_title": "Who will be the next prime minister of Nepal?", "slug": "who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-nepal", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:54.797276Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T10:42:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T12:13:00.393694Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:55.229525Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-17T10:42:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T20:17:48.800837Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T20:17:48.800837Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39510, "title": "Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Kulman Ghising)", "created_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:54.797753Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T10:42:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Federal: [Who could be Nepal's next prime minister? Here are 5 top contenders](https://thefederal.com/category/international/nepals-next-prime-minister-after-olis-controversial-exit-206263)\n\n> Scuffles were reported among Gen-Z factions backing different contenders outside the Nepal Army headquarters in Kathmandu on Wednesday evening, as talks to pick an interim leader after the violent overthrow of the government extended into the third day.\n\n> KP Sharma Oli resigned as prime minister on Tuesday, leaving the post vacant while the anti-corruption revolt continues without a clear leader.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39851,\"question_id\":39393}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'Kulman Ghising'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** for the individual who, after September 11, 2025 and before January 1, 2026 takes the [oath](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nepal_2016#s852) of office and secrecy as the new [Prime Minister of Nepal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Nepal) and wins a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives as required by [section 76](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nepal_2016#s795) of the Constitution of Nepal. The question resolves as **No** for everyone else. If none of the listed candidates fulfills the criteria during that time period, then the question resolves as **No** for every option.", "fine_print": "This is a Group question, so you do not have to assess probabilities for every option. More options may be added after the question opens, if there is [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting that a particular individual has a material probability of coming the next PM of Nepal.", "post_id": 39967, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758111083.920913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758111083.920913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10597776436632265 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 14.0, 8.0, 9.0, 2.0, 16.0, 3.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Federal: [Who could be Nepal's next prime minister? Here are 5 top contenders](https://thefederal.com/category/international/nepals-next-prime-minister-after-olis-controversial-exit-206263)\n\n> Scuffles were reported among Gen-Z factions backing different contenders outside the Nepal Army headquarters in Kathmandu on Wednesday evening, as talks to pick an interim leader after the violent overthrow of the government extended into the third day.\n\n> KP Sharma Oli resigned as prime minister on Tuesday, leaving the post vacant while the anti-corruption revolt continues without a clear leader.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39851,\"question_id\":39393}}`" }, { "id": 39965, "title": "Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Alina Habba still U.S. Attorney at end of 2025?", "url_title": "Alina Habba still U.S. Attorney at end of 2025?", "slug": "alina-habba-still-us-attorney-at-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:52.652158Z", "published_at": "2025-09-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T17:00:00.275005Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:53.413468Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T20:17:48.800837Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T20:17:48.800837Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39508, "title": "Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:52.652573Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-15T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-15T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Alina Habba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba) is a New Jersey lawyer who first came to prominence as a lawyer for then-former President Donald Trump in [2021](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times-alina-habba/2021/09/22/8acaf1c2-1bce-11ec-a99a-5fea2b2da34b_story.html). On March 24, 2025, after Trump retook the presidency, he [nominated Habba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/nyregion/trump-alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney.html) to serve as the Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, replacing John Giordano, who had previously been named the Interim U.S. Attorney on March 3, 2025.\n\nUnder [federal law](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546), Interim U.S. Attorneys may serve for only 120 days, unless they are confirmed as the U.S. Attorney by the Senate. Once the 120-day period expires, it falls to the local federal district court to appoint someone to the office. In Habba's case, the Senate did not vote on her nomination, and, on July 22, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey [announced](https://www.njd.uscourts.gov/sites/njd/files/StandingOrder2025-03USAttyAppointment.pdf) that, upon the expiration of her term, Habba would be replaced by [Desiree Leigh Grace](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/nyregion/desiree-grace-new-jersey-us-attorney.html), a longtime prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office.\n\nGrace's tenure would be short-lived. Within days of the court's decision, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that [Grace had been fired](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-attorney-new-jersey-alina-habba-desiree-leigh-grace-pam-bondi/) and Habba re-installed, now as the Acting U.S. Attorney. At this time, President Trump also withdrew Habba's nomination to serve as the U.S. Attorney, so that she would be [statutorily eligible](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/3345) to serve in the \"acting\" role.\n\nFederal criminal defendants in New Jersey soon got wise to the situation and began filing motions to dismiss the charges against them, on the basis that Habba's appointment was unlawful. And on August 21, 2025, a federal judge [ruled](https://newjerseyglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Brann-Habba-opinion.pdf) that indeed Habba's appointment was unlawful. The government quickly appealed, and an [expedited briefing schedule](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818.10.2.pdf) was set, under which the appeal should be fully briefed by October 14, 2025. But in the meantime, federal criminal trials and hearings in New Jersey are at a [standstill](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/nyregion/new-jersey-federal-court-slowdown.html), raising questions about how long the status quo can endure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39756,\"question_id\":39152}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, Alina Habba is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey.", "fine_print": "Whether or not Alina Habba is serving in an interim or a permanent capacity will have no impact to this question.\n\nIf credible sources disagree as to who the head of the office is, the question will resolve according to the [U.S. Attorney's Office's website](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj).", "post_id": 39965, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757955376.758086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757955376.758086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4216208512003248 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Alina Habba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba) is a New Jersey lawyer who first came to prominence as a lawyer for then-former President Donald Trump in [2021](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times-alina-habba/2021/09/22/8acaf1c2-1bce-11ec-a99a-5fea2b2da34b_story.html). On March 24, 2025, after Trump retook the presidency, he [nominated Habba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/nyregion/trump-alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney.html) to serve as the Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, replacing John Giordano, who had previously been named the Interim U.S. Attorney on March 3, 2025.\n\nUnder [federal law](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546), Interim U.S. Attorneys may serve for only 120 days, unless they are confirmed as the U.S. Attorney by the Senate. Once the 120-day period expires, it falls to the local federal district court to appoint someone to the office. In Habba's case, the Senate did not vote on her nomination, and, on July 22, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey [announced](https://www.njd.uscourts.gov/sites/njd/files/StandingOrder2025-03USAttyAppointment.pdf) that, upon the expiration of her term, Habba would be replaced by [Desiree Leigh Grace](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/nyregion/desiree-grace-new-jersey-us-attorney.html), a longtime prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office.\n\nGrace's tenure would be short-lived. Within days of the court's decision, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that [Grace had been fired](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-attorney-new-jersey-alina-habba-desiree-leigh-grace-pam-bondi/) and Habba re-installed, now as the Acting U.S. Attorney. At this time, President Trump also withdrew Habba's nomination to serve as the U.S. Attorney, so that she would be [statutorily eligible](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/3345) to serve in the \"acting\" role.\n\nFederal criminal defendants in New Jersey soon got wise to the situation and began filing motions to dismiss the charges against them, on the basis that Habba's appointment was unlawful. And on August 21, 2025, a federal judge [ruled](https://newjerseyglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Brann-Habba-opinion.pdf) that indeed Habba's appointment was unlawful. The government quickly appealed, and an [expedited briefing schedule](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818.10.2.pdf) was set, under which the appeal should be fully briefed by October 14, 2025. But in the meantime, federal criminal trials and hearings in New Jersey are at a [standstill](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/nyregion/new-jersey-federal-court-slowdown.html), raising questions about how long the status quo can endure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39756,\"question_id\":39152}}`" }, { "id": 39963, "title": "Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Rabi Lamichhane)", "short_title": "Who will be the next prime minister of Nepal?", "url_title": "Who will be the next prime minister of Nepal?", "slug": "who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-nepal", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:51.046085Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T10:42:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T12:13:00.315652Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:51.343827Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-17T10:42:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T20:17:48.800837Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T20:17:48.800837Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39506, "title": "Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Rabi Lamichhane)", "created_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:51.046504Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T10:42:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T12:12:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Federal: [Who could be Nepal's next prime minister? Here are 5 top contenders](https://thefederal.com/category/international/nepals-next-prime-minister-after-olis-controversial-exit-206263)\n\n> Scuffles were reported among Gen-Z factions backing different contenders outside the Nepal Army headquarters in Kathmandu on Wednesday evening, as talks to pick an interim leader after the violent overthrow of the government extended into the third day.\n\n> KP Sharma Oli resigned as prime minister on Tuesday, leaving the post vacant while the anti-corruption revolt continues without a clear leader.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39851,\"question_id\":39397}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'Rabi Lamichhane'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** for the individual who, after September 11, 2025 and before January 1, 2026 takes the [oath](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nepal_2016#s852) of office and secrecy as the new [Prime Minister of Nepal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Nepal) and wins a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives as required by [section 76](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nepal_2016#s795) of the Constitution of Nepal. The question resolves as **No** for everyone else. If none of the listed candidates fulfills the criteria during that time period, then the question resolves as **No** for every option.", "fine_print": "This is a Group question, so you do not have to assess probabilities for every option. More options may be added after the question opens, if there is [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting that a particular individual has a material probability of coming the next PM of Nepal.", "post_id": 39963, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758111082.570944, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758111082.570944, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.11925256567227709 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 18.0, 8.0, 4.0, 3.0, 12.0, 0.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Federal: [Who could be Nepal's next prime minister? Here are 5 top contenders](https://thefederal.com/category/international/nepals-next-prime-minister-after-olis-controversial-exit-206263)\n\n> Scuffles were reported among Gen-Z factions backing different contenders outside the Nepal Army headquarters in Kathmandu on Wednesday evening, as talks to pick an interim leader after the violent overthrow of the government extended into the third day.\n\n> KP Sharma Oli resigned as prime minister on Tuesday, leaving the post vacant while the anti-corruption revolt continues without a clear leader.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39851,\"question_id\":39397}}`" }, { "id": 39961, "title": "Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in the 2025 presidential election of Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire)?", "short_title": "Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in 2025 election?", "url_title": "Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in 2025 election?", "slug": "will-alassane-ouattara-win-80-or-more-of-the-first-round-vote-in-2025-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:49.479972Z", "published_at": "2025-09-19T19:15:06Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T20:46:00.294574Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:50.017918Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-19T20:45:06Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-19T20:45:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-25T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-19T19:15:06Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T20:17:48.800837Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T20:17:48.800837Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39504, "title": "Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in the 2025 presidential election of Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire)?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T10:14:49.480461Z", "open_time": "2025-09-19T19:15:06Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-19T20:45:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-19T20:45:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-25T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-19T20:45:06Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-19T20:45:06Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ivory coast is [scheduled](https://electionguide.org/elections/id/4575/) to hold the first round of its 2025 general election on October 25, 2025. An 83 year-old US-educated economist, President Alassane Ouattara has served since 2010. He is widely [noted](https://www.barrons.com/news/alassane-ouattara-economist-turned-i-coast-political-pillar-66e8c3a9) as having authoritarian tendencies. Many viable opponents have been [barred](https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20250908-ivory-coast-bars-ex-president-gbagbo-opposition-leader-from-presidential-race) from running in the election. For base rate information, please see previous results here: [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Ivorian_presidential_election), [2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Ivorian_presidential_election), and [2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Ivorian_presidential_election). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39891,\"question_id\":39436}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Alassane Ouattara receives 80% or more in the first round of the [2025 Ivorian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Ivorian_presidential_election) according to official results. ", "fine_print": "If the first round of the election is postponed, the question may remain open. If the first round is postponed until after December 31, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 39961, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758313960.235638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758313960.235638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.666607013592409 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 14.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ivory coast is [scheduled](https://electionguide.org/elections/id/4575/) to hold the first round of its 2025 general election on October 25, 2025. An 83 year-old US-educated economist, President Alassane Ouattara has served since 2010. He is widely [noted](https://www.barrons.com/news/alassane-ouattara-economist-turned-i-coast-political-pillar-66e8c3a9) as having authoritarian tendencies. Many viable opponents have been [barred](https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20250908-ivory-coast-bars-ex-president-gbagbo-opposition-leader-from-presidential-race) from running in the election. For base rate information, please see previous results here: [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Ivorian_presidential_election), [2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Ivorian_presidential_election), and [2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Ivorian_presidential_election). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39891,\"question_id\":39436}}`" }, { "id": 39958, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Spirit Airlines emerge from bankruptcy before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Spirit Airlines emerge from bankruptcy before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-spirit-airlines-emerge-from-bankruptcy-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:19.535806Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T06:34:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:08.233788Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:19.808772Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T08:04:55Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T08:04:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T23:32:41Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T23:32:41Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T06:34:55Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39501, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:19.536235Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T06:34:55Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T08:04:55Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T08:04:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T23:32:41Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T23:32:41Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:07.695194Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T08:04:55Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T08:04:55Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39343\n- Original question title: Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, Spirit Airlines, Inc. emerges from Chapter 11 bankruptcy.\n> \n> If Spirit Airlines, Inc is liquidated, dissolved, its Chapter 11 case is converted to Chapter 7, or the Chapter 11 bankruptcy case is dismissed without confirmation of a reorganisation plan this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> On August 29, 2025, Spirit Airlines, Inc. [announced](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Issues-Open-Letter-to-All-Guests/default.aspx) that the company has entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy.\n> \n> > Today, Spirit took a proactive step to build a stronger foundation and future for our company. We have voluntarily entered the Chapter 11 restructuring process to ensure the long-term success of our airline.\n> \n> This marks the [second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spirit_Airlines#Attempted_mergers_and_bankruptcy) time the troubled airline has done so since November 2024, where the low-cost airline filed for bankruptcy on the back of several failed merger attempts between fellow low-cost airlines JetBlue Airways Corporation and Frontier Airlines, Inc.\n> \n> Whilst Spirit managed to [emerge](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Emerges-from-Financial-Restructuring-Better-Positioned-to-Advance-its-Transformation-and-Enhanced-Guest-Experience/default.aspx) from their initial bankruptcy in March 2025 (a reorganization [approved](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Receives-Court-Confirmation-of-Reorganization-Plan/default.aspx) by the court February 2025), it ultimately failed to stabilise its finances amidst challenging market conditions, slow growth and failed restructuring.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39343,\"question_id\":38720,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39343). If the community prediction on 2025-09-24 23:32:41 is higher than 6.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39958, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758095734.949083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758095734.949083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.27834850088183416 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.893280105158325, "peer_score": 8.573309944274792, "coverage": 0.9679175007343293, "relative_legacy_score": 0.012893545624566159, "weighted_coverage": 0.9679175007343293, "spot_peer_score": 8.705551673294154, "spot_baseline_score": 60.40713236688608, "baseline_archived_score": 51.893280105158325, "peer_archived_score": 8.573309944274792, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.012893545624566159, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.705551673294154, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.40713236688608 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39343\n- Original question title: Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, Spirit Airlines, Inc. emerges from Chapter 11 bankruptcy.\n> \n> If Spirit Airlines, Inc is liquidated, dissolved, its Chapter 11 case is converted to Chapter 7, or the Chapter 11 bankruptcy case is dismissed without confirmation of a reorganisation plan this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> On August 29, 2025, Spirit Airlines, Inc. [announced](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Issues-Open-Letter-to-All-Guests/default.aspx) that the company has entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy.\n> \n> > Today, Spirit took a proactive step to build a stronger foundation and future for our company. We have voluntarily entered the Chapter 11 restructuring process to ensure the long-term success of our airline.\n> \n> This marks the [second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spirit_Airlines#Attempted_mergers_and_bankruptcy) time the troubled airline has done so since November 2024, where the low-cost airline filed for bankruptcy on the back of several failed merger attempts between fellow low-cost airlines JetBlue Airways Corporation and Frontier Airlines, Inc.\n> \n> Whilst Spirit managed to [emerge](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Emerges-from-Financial-Restructuring-Better-Positioned-to-Advance-its-Transformation-and-Enhanced-Guest-Experience/default.aspx) from their initial bankruptcy in March 2025 (a reorganization [approved](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Receives-Court-Confirmation-of-Reorganization-Plan/default.aspx) by the court February 2025), it ultimately failed to stabilise its finances amidst challenging market conditions, slow growth and failed restructuring.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39343,\"question_id\":38720,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`" }, { "id": 39957, "title": "Will PCG's market close price on 2025-09-26 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-17?", "short_title": "PCG's close price rises?", "url_title": "PCG's close price rises?", "slug": "pcgs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:18.868252Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T22:04:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:08.944318Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:19.259457Z", "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T23:34:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T23:34:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T04:38:51Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T04:38:51Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T22:04:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39500, "title": "Will PCG's market close price on 2025-09-26 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-17?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:18.868729Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T22:04:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T23:34:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T23:34:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T04:38:51Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T04:38:51Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:08.474594Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T23:34:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T23:34:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "PG&E Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is PCG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:57) is 15.45. You can find more information about PG&E Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PCG\n\nPG&E Corporation, through its subsidiary, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, engages in the sale and delivery of electricity and natural gas to customers in northern and central California, the United States. It generates electricity using nuclear, hydroelectric, fossil fuel-fired, fuel cell, and photovoltaic sources. The company owns and operates interconnected transmission lines; electric transmission substations, distribution lines, switching and distribution substations; and natural gas transmission, storage, and distribution system consisting of distribution pipelines, backbone and local transmission pipelines, and various storage facilities. It serves residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers, as well as natural gas-fired electric generation facilities. PG&E Corporation was incorporated in 1905 and is based in Oakland, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"PCG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of PCG. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-17, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39957, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758151862.690127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758151862.690127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5219464052287581 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 3.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 4.0, 4.0, 20.0, 4.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -11.50001309847474, "peer_score": -2.353953635964599, "coverage": 0.9732034307497519, "relative_legacy_score": -0.05466724415089317, "weighted_coverage": 0.9732034307497519, "spot_peer_score": -0.8936711531431091, "spot_baseline_score": -8.926733809708741, "baseline_archived_score": -11.50001309847474, "peer_archived_score": -2.353953635964599, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.05466724415089317, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.8936711531431091, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -8.926733809708741 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "PG&E Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is PCG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:57) is 15.45. You can find more information about PG&E Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PCG\n\nPG&E Corporation, through its subsidiary, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, engages in the sale and delivery of electricity and natural gas to customers in northern and central California, the United States. It generates electricity using nuclear, hydroelectric, fossil fuel-fired, fuel cell, and photovoltaic sources. The company owns and operates interconnected transmission lines; electric transmission substations, distribution lines, switching and distribution substations; and natural gas transmission, storage, and distribution system consisting of distribution pipelines, backbone and local transmission pipelines, and various storage facilities. It serves residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers, as well as natural gas-fired electric generation facilities. 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