Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1820
{ "count": 5951, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1840", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1800", "results": [ { "id": 29545, "title": "Will Donald Trump Lose in New York State by under 6.0 points in the 2024 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-lose-in-new-york-state-by-under-60-points-in-the-2024-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.261720Z", "published_at": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.105397Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T12:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29418, "title": "Will Donald Trump Lose in New York State by under 6.0 points in the 2024 election?", "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.261720Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T12:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T12:28:01.561349Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the 2022 gubernatorial election, the Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, won by 6.39 points over her Republican opponent. In 2020, Joe Biden won the presidential popular vote in NYS by 23.1 points. On October 27, 2024, Donald Trump held a rally in Madison Square Garden.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump loses the popular vote in New York State in the 2024 presidential race by less than 6.0 points. If he loses by greater than or equal to 6.0 points, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.", "post_id": 29545, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730818563.798364, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730818563.798364, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.1252430555374011 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 1.128567274583717, 0.9370693296851358, 0.8031650779384272, 1.6775268527132643, 0.0094962884186239, 0.27308960725456716, 0.9237733229133454, 0.0, 0.35314817062767934, 0.8355804261814468, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6807903119206117, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.58835926043419, "peer_score": 3.076684283522679, "coverage": 0.9944077067132349, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9944077067132349, "spot_peer_score": 3.8676143608814275, "spot_baseline_score": 87.97057662822883, "baseline_archived_score": 87.58835926043419, "peer_archived_score": 3.076684283522679, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.8676143608814275, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 87.97057662822883 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the 2022 gubernatorial election, the Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, won by 6.39 points over her Republican opponent. In 2020, Joe Biden won the presidential popular vote in NYS by 23.1 points. On October 27, 2024, Donald Trump held a rally in Madison Square Garden." }, { "id": 29544, "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.257985Z", "published_at": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.616178Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29417, "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.257985Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:16:19.498471Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)\n* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-first-term/)\n\n----\n\nKamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)) This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\n\n>Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\n\n>The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\n\n>Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Kamala Harris is the US President for at least 30 consecutive days at any point before January 1, 2025. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29544, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730818983.625905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01625 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.055999999999999994 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730818983.625905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01625 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.055999999999999994 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.09145927677001423 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4127660079423567, 1.7920921750827044, 1.0197777935096481, 0.1648846227603165, 0.3656671763794387, 2.945918039534576, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.7785779801069908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 94.18752326759991, "peer_score": 2.7694362476845775, "coverage": 0.9937413821866116, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9937413821866116, "spot_peer_score": 1.8077769749381647, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 94.18752326759991, "peer_archived_score": 2.7694362476845775, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.8077769749381647, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)\n* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-first-term/)\n\n----\n\nKamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)) This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\n\n>Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\n\n>The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\n\n>Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party." }, { "id": 29543, "title": "Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before December 1, 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-birdcast-report-1-billion-birds-flying-over-the-united-states-at-any-point-before-december-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.251029Z", "published_at": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.710863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T16:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T16:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29416, "title": "Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before December 1, 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.251029Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T16:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-04T16:55:43.339355Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T16:53:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BirdCast is a [consortium](https://birdcast.info/about/collaborators/) of interdisciplinary researchers, with the three primary institutions being the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Colorado State University's Aeroeco Lab, and the University of Massachusetts Amherst, with funding from the National Science Foundation, the Leon Levy Foundation, and Amazon Web Services, among others. Its mission is, according to the [Audubon Society](https://www.audubon.org/news/how-get-most-out-birdcasts-migration-forecasts), to forecast \"the intensity of overnight bird migration across the continental United States, displaying waves of migratory birds on a series of easy-to-read forecast maps.\"\n\nOn the night of October 6-7, 2023, the United States experienced the first billion bird night reported by BirdCast, with Dr. Andrew Farnsworth of The Cornell Lab [posting](https://birdcast.info/news/the-first-billion-bird-night-6-7-october-2023/): \n\n>We will keep this simple – welcome to the billion bird club!\n\n>There is not much more that we can say beyond – in the recorded history of BirdCast, here is the first billion bird night! BILLION! And, as you can see, this epic and grand occasion did not stop at a billion, growing to nearly 1.2 billion!\n\n<img src=\"https://is-birdcast-wordpress-prod-s3.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/mosaic_202310070220.jpg\" />\n\nHowever, as Watt Poultry, a trade journal for the poultry industry, wrote on September 25, 2024, \"[Beware of another billion-bird migration night](https://www.wattagnet.com/poultry-meat/diseases-health/avian-influenza/article/15704378/beware-of-another-billionbird-migration-night)\": \n\n>Now that fall is upon us and wild birds will soon begin their migrations in North America, it is especially important for poultry producers to make sure all biosecurity precautions are being carried out on their farms to prevent infections of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).\n\n>Emily Pittman, veterinary director, Georgia Poultry Laboratory Network, reminded attendees of the 2024 Georgia Layer Conference on September 23 what day it was, and that in 2023, October 6 was a billion-bird migration night.\n\n>“If you remember last year, this was about when we started having issues (with HPAI) again,” she said.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after October 7, 2024, and before December 1, 2025, BirdCast's [Live bird migration maps](https://birdcast.info/migration-tools/live-migration-maps/) tool reports ≥1000.0 million birds in flight simultaneously over the United States. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The time zone for this question is Eastern Time (ET), as that is the one used by BirdCast.\n\nIn case of the resolution source being unavailable or no longer timely updated before the question can resolve, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025 for the bird migration traffic numbers up to November 30, 2024, 23:50 ET to be shown, at which point this question will be **annulled** if the numbers are still not shown.", "post_id": 29543, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730738887.967333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730738887.967333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.625, 0.375 ], "means": [ 0.45214077374692135 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3909988117457668, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4550171310104832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "BirdCast is a [consortium](https://birdcast.info/about/collaborators/) of interdisciplinary researchers, with the three primary institutions being the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Colorado State University's Aeroeco Lab, and the University of Massachusetts Amherst, with funding from the National Science Foundation, the Leon Levy Foundation, and Amazon Web Services, among others. Its mission is, according to the [Audubon Society](https://www.audubon.org/news/how-get-most-out-birdcasts-migration-forecasts), to forecast \"the intensity of overnight bird migration across the continental United States, displaying waves of migratory birds on a series of easy-to-read forecast maps.\"\n\nOn the night of October 6-7, 2023, the United States experienced the first billion bird night reported by BirdCast, with Dr. Andrew Farnsworth of The Cornell Lab [posting](https://birdcast.info/news/the-first-billion-bird-night-6-7-october-2023/): \n\n>We will keep this simple – welcome to the billion bird club!\n\n>There is not much more that we can say beyond – in the recorded history of BirdCast, here is the first billion bird night! BILLION! And, as you can see, this epic and grand occasion did not stop at a billion, growing to nearly 1.2 billion!\n\n<img src=\"https://is-birdcast-wordpress-prod-s3.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/mosaic_202310070220.jpg\" />\n\nHowever, as Watt Poultry, a trade journal for the poultry industry, wrote on September 25, 2024, \"[Beware of another billion-bird migration night](https://www.wattagnet.com/poultry-meat/diseases-health/avian-influenza/article/15704378/beware-of-another-billionbird-migration-night)\": \n\n>Now that fall is upon us and wild birds will soon begin their migrations in North America, it is especially important for poultry producers to make sure all biosecurity precautions are being carried out on their farms to prevent infections of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).\n\n>Emily Pittman, veterinary director, Georgia Poultry Laboratory Network, reminded attendees of the 2024 Georgia Layer Conference on September 23 what day it was, and that in 2023, October 6 was a billion-bird migration night.\n\n>“If you remember last year, this was about when we started having issues (with HPAI) again,” she said." }, { "id": 29542, "title": "Before January 5, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-january-5-2025-will-the-kp-lineage-constitute-less-than-50-of-the-covid-19-variants-monitored-in-the-us", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.244413Z", "published_at": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.663316Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T13:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29415, "title": "Before January 5, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?", "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.244413Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T13:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:31:32.514323Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) for October 26, 2024, the KP lineage had a combined estimate of 68% of sequenced variants in the United States for the two-week period ending on that date. As an [offshoot](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/kp2-now-dominant-covid-variant-experts-us-summer/story?id=110166187) of the [omicron variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant), KP (specifically KP.2 at the time) [first reached](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7342a1.htm) >10% prevalence in April 2024. KP.3.1.1 [became](https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/whats-new/kp-3-1-1-is-the-predominant-variant.html) the predominant variant in August 2024. \n\nRecently another new COVID variant has been rapidly [growing](https://www.goerie.com/story/news/2024/10/22/what-is-covid-19-variant-xec-spreading-in-pennsylvania/75794702007/) in the United States, the XEC variant, which is estimated at 17% according to the October 26th Nowcast. This is a sharp increase from the two-week period ended September 14, 2024, when it was 2%. Even at 17% following its rapid gains, XEC is still a distant second to KP.3.1.1, which is 57% according to the Nowcast. However, results from [one recent study](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.10.16.618773v1) \"suggest that XEC has the potential to outcompete the other major lineage including KP.3.1.1.\"\n\nAt the time of this question, CDC estimates variant proportions using two-week periods, using two different calculations: weighted estimates and Nowcast estimates. According [to CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions):\n\n>Weighted estimates (provided for all two-week periods except the most recent two, two-week periods) are variant proportions that are based on empirical (observed) genomic sequencing data. These estimates are not available for the most recent two-week periods because of the time it takes to generate the sequencing data, including sample collection, specimen treatment, shipping, analysis, and upload into public databases.\n\n>Lineages with weighted estimates less than 1% of all circulating variants are combined with their parent lineage. When the weighted estimate of a lineage crosses the 1% threshold and has substitutions in the spike protein that could affect vaccine efficacy, transmission, or severity, it may be separated from its parent lineage and displayed on its own in the variant proportions data.\n\nIn contrast:\n\n>Nowcast estimates (provided for the most recent two two-week periods when the \"Nowcast on\" option is selected below) are model-based projections of variant proportions for the most recent two-week periods to enable timely public health action. CDC uses the Nowcast to forecast variant proportions before the weighted estimates are available for a given two-week period.\n\nDue to the greater reliability, verifiability, and empirical basis of the Weighted estimate, this question resolves based on that figure.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if before January 5, 2025, according to CDC's [variant proportions page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) the combined weighted estimate for all KP variants in the United States is below 50% in any period ending between November 9, 2024, and January 4, 2025, inclusive. ", "fine_print": "Any subsequent revisions to the data after the question is resolved will not be considered.\n\nCDC currently reports two week periods, which will be used unless the reporting period changes. If the reporting period changes, the new reporting period will be used. If multiple reporting periods are available, the one nearest to the two week period will be used, as determined by Metaculus.\n\nThis question resolves according to the \"Weighted\" estimate and will not use the \"Nowcast\" estimate.\n\nThe HHS region used will be \"USA\".\n\nThe central estimate reported will be used when determining the variant share.", "post_id": 29542, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730818457.789497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48333333333333334 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730818457.789497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48333333333333334 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6152611306619854 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.34429275062741416, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05850031242291996, 0.19073805166550978, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.44247554233900865, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3344607724759484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 1.6768542423504806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42089866646249546, 0.0, 0.7519461439279942, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7764839839168035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 16.905000925721044, "peer_score": 9.212276264790734, "coverage": 0.9932000609266537, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9932000609266537, "spot_peer_score": 19.67847693964957, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 16.905000925721044, "peer_archived_score": 9.212276264790734, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.67847693964957, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) for October 26, 2024, the KP lineage had a combined estimate of 68% of sequenced variants in the United States for the two-week period ending on that date. As an [offshoot](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/kp2-now-dominant-covid-variant-experts-us-summer/story?id=110166187) of the [omicron variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant), KP (specifically KP.2 at the time) [first reached](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7342a1.htm) >10% prevalence in April 2024. KP.3.1.1 [became](https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/whats-new/kp-3-1-1-is-the-predominant-variant.html) the predominant variant in August 2024. \n\nRecently another new COVID variant has been rapidly [growing](https://www.goerie.com/story/news/2024/10/22/what-is-covid-19-variant-xec-spreading-in-pennsylvania/75794702007/) in the United States, the XEC variant, which is estimated at 17% according to the October 26th Nowcast. This is a sharp increase from the two-week period ended September 14, 2024, when it was 2%. Even at 17% following its rapid gains, XEC is still a distant second to KP.3.1.1, which is 57% according to the Nowcast. However, results from [one recent study](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.10.16.618773v1) \"suggest that XEC has the potential to outcompete the other major lineage including KP.3.1.1.\"\n\nAt the time of this question, CDC estimates variant proportions using two-week periods, using two different calculations: weighted estimates and Nowcast estimates. According [to CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions):\n\n>Weighted estimates (provided for all two-week periods except the most recent two, two-week periods) are variant proportions that are based on empirical (observed) genomic sequencing data. These estimates are not available for the most recent two-week periods because of the time it takes to generate the sequencing data, including sample collection, specimen treatment, shipping, analysis, and upload into public databases.\n\n>Lineages with weighted estimates less than 1% of all circulating variants are combined with their parent lineage. When the weighted estimate of a lineage crosses the 1% threshold and has substitutions in the spike protein that could affect vaccine efficacy, transmission, or severity, it may be separated from its parent lineage and displayed on its own in the variant proportions data.\n\nIn contrast:\n\n>Nowcast estimates (provided for the most recent two two-week periods when the \"Nowcast on\" option is selected below) are model-based projections of variant proportions for the most recent two-week periods to enable timely public health action. CDC uses the Nowcast to forecast variant proportions before the weighted estimates are available for a given two-week period.\n\nDue to the greater reliability, verifiability, and empirical basis of the Weighted estimate, this question resolves based on that figure." }, { "id": 29541, "title": "Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-xec-covid-19-variant-account-for-at-least-50-of-the-variants-monitored-in-the-us-before-january-5-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.236533Z", "published_at": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.340396Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T01:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29414, "title": "Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.236533Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T01:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T01:52:03.929537Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Another new COVID variant is rapidly [growing](https://www.goerie.com/story/news/2024/10/22/what-is-covid-19-variant-xec-spreading-in-pennsylvania/75794702007/) in the United States, the XEC variant, which is estimated at 10.7% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending October 12, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). This this is a sharp increase from the previous two-week period when it was 2.3%, though still a distant second to KP.3.1.1, a [descendant](https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/3-things-to-know-about-xec-the-latest-covid-strain) of the FLiRT variants, which is at 57.2% according to the Nowcast (41.2% as of the latest weighted estimate). Results from [one recent study](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.10.16.618773v1) \"suggest that XEC has the potential to outcompete the other major lineage including KP.3.1.1.\"\n\nAt the time of this question, CDC estimates variant proportions using two-week periods, using two different calculations: weighted estimates and Nowcast estimates. According [to CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions):\n\n>Weighted estimates (provided for all two-week periods except the most recent two, two-week periods) are variant proportions that are based on empirical (observed) genomic sequencing data. These estimates are not available for the most recent two-week periods because of the time it takes to generate the sequencing data, including sample collection, specimen treatment, shipping, analysis, and upload into public databases.\n\n>Lineages with weighted estimates less than 1% of all circulating variants are combined with their parent lineage. When the weighted estimate of a lineage crosses the 1% threshold and has substitutions in the spike protein that could affect vaccine efficacy, transmission, or severity, it may be separated from its parent lineage and displayed on its own in the variant proportions data.\n\nIn contrast:\n\n>Nowcast estimates (provided for the most recent two two-week periods when the \"Nowcast on\" option is selected below) are model-based projections of variant proportions for the most recent two-week periods to enable timely public health action. CDC uses the Nowcast to forecast variant proportions before the weighted estimates are available for a given two-week period.\n\nDue to the greater reliability, verifiability, and empirical basis of the Weighted estimate, this question resolves based on that figure.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if CDC's [variant proportions page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) shows a weighted estimate for all XEC variants in the United States of 50% or more of the variants sequence in any period ending before January 5, 2025. If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question resolves according to the \"Weighted\" estimate and will not use the \"Nowcast\" estimate.", "post_id": 29541, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730819235.834819, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.273 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730819235.834819, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.273 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4455865243928864 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4918092218079739, 0.0, 1.5609907902090452, 0.865326963027923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.25741247186764954, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.214824819861367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7847040262351138, 0.20851081619995687, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 33.87469012477212, "peer_score": 11.014959515187357, "coverage": 0.9930028532279863, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9930028532279863, "spot_peer_score": 12.891861922715204, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 33.87469012477212, "peer_archived_score": 11.014959515187357, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.891861922715204, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Another new COVID variant is rapidly [growing](https://www.goerie.com/story/news/2024/10/22/what-is-covid-19-variant-xec-spreading-in-pennsylvania/75794702007/) in the United States, the XEC variant, which is estimated at 10.7% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending October 12, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). This this is a sharp increase from the previous two-week period when it was 2.3%, though still a distant second to KP.3.1.1, a [descendant](https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/3-things-to-know-about-xec-the-latest-covid-strain) of the FLiRT variants, which is at 57.2% according to the Nowcast (41.2% as of the latest weighted estimate). Results from [one recent study](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.10.16.618773v1) \"suggest that XEC has the potential to outcompete the other major lineage including KP.3.1.1.\"\n\nAt the time of this question, CDC estimates variant proportions using two-week periods, using two different calculations: weighted estimates and Nowcast estimates. According [to CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions):\n\n>Weighted estimates (provided for all two-week periods except the most recent two, two-week periods) are variant proportions that are based on empirical (observed) genomic sequencing data. These estimates are not available for the most recent two-week periods because of the time it takes to generate the sequencing data, including sample collection, specimen treatment, shipping, analysis, and upload into public databases.\n\n>Lineages with weighted estimates less than 1% of all circulating variants are combined with their parent lineage. When the weighted estimate of a lineage crosses the 1% threshold and has substitutions in the spike protein that could affect vaccine efficacy, transmission, or severity, it may be separated from its parent lineage and displayed on its own in the variant proportions data.\n\nIn contrast:\n\n>Nowcast estimates (provided for the most recent two two-week periods when the \"Nowcast on\" option is selected below) are model-based projections of variant proportions for the most recent two-week periods to enable timely public health action. CDC uses the Nowcast to forecast variant proportions before the weighted estimates are available for a given two-week period.\n\nDue to the greater reliability, verifiability, and empirical basis of the Weighted estimate, this question resolves based on that figure." }, { "id": 29521, "title": "Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Will Xi and Putin congratulate new US president promptly?", "url_title": "Will Xi and Putin congratulate new US president promptly?", "slug": "will-xi-and-putin-congratulate-new-us-president-promptly", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-04T00:57:57.027641Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T00:13:51.812962Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.219783Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-06T00:13:51.812959Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T19:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 29400, "title": "Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-04T00:57:57.027745Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-10T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-10T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T19:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-11T23:48:46.703034Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T19:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Historically, winners of important elections are congratulated by foreign leaders as a form of diplomatic courtesy. However, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and both China and Russia have raised questions about whether their respective leaders will maintain this tradition in 2024. After the 2020 U.S. election, for instance, Xi [congratulated Joe Biden](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/25/politics/xi-jinping-joe-biden-congratulations/index.html) only after results were more widely accepted, while Putin [did so](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-55318269) only after the Electoral College vote. The timing of congratulatory messages might reflect each leader's stance on U.S. relations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before December 1, 2024, both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have issued official congratulations to the 2024 U.S. presidential election winner. To count, the congratulatory message would have to acknowledge the election outcome and either include direct statements from the corresponding leader or mention the leader's name. For example, China's 13 Nov 2020 statement\n\n> We respect the choice of the American people. We extend congratulations to Mr Biden and Ms Harris\n\nwould not count for the purposes of this question, as it came from a foreign ministry spokesman and did not include Xi Jinping's name.", "fine_print": "The election winner is defined as the candidate declared by both Fox News and the Associated Press. If they do not agree with each other or either of these has refused to declare any candidate the winner, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 29521, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731348050.430216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731348050.430216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9764637425686149 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07964779781950536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36686888957024616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2991016446417691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14500482192877664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5642982571167124, 0.7073598289675583, 0.0, 1.7120814292583995, 7.440456956893835 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -0.29839271594619243, "peer_score": -0.13978537191955293, "coverage": 0.007119517965630702, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9975927902758119, "spot_peer_score": 5.707328599428554, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "baseline_archived_score": -0.29839271594619243, "peer_archived_score": -0.13978537191955293, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.707328599428554, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Historically, winners of important elections are congratulated by foreign leaders as a form of diplomatic courtesy. However, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and both China and Russia have raised questions about whether their respective leaders will maintain this tradition in 2024. After the 2020 U.S. election, for instance, Xi [congratulated Joe Biden](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/25/politics/xi-jinping-joe-biden-congratulations/index.html) only after results were more widely accepted, while Putin [did so](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-55318269) only after the Electoral College vote. The timing of congratulatory messages might reflect each leader's stance on U.S. relations." }, { "id": 29501, "title": "Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-break-up-google-before-1-january-2026", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T19:30:17.478106Z", "published_at": "2024-11-09T02:06:19.743184Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:18:46.560050Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-09T02:06:19.743182Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-10T02:06:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 133, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T02:25:35.692352Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T02:25:35.692352Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 29363, "title": "Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T19:30:17.478188Z", "open_time": "2024-11-10T02:06:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-14T02:06:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-14T02:06:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US break up google?\n\nIn recent years, [Google has come under intense scrutiny from regulators and policymakers in the United States,](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/03/tech-companies-us-eu-battles-00156110)raising questions about whether the tech giant could face a forced breakup. Once celebrated as an innovative pioneer in the internet age, Google’s vast reach and influence now place it at the center of antitrust debates. The company, which dominates global online search, digital advertising, and mobile operating systems through its ownership of Android, is seen by many as holding an outsized share of power over critical digital infrastructure. [Critics argue that Google’s practices have stifled competition, restricted consumer choice, and concentrated control over personal data and information flow.](https://www.yalelawjournal.org/note/amazons-antitrust-paradox)\n\nThe [U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ)](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-google-monopolizing-digital-advertising-technologies) and [several state attorneys general have filed multiple lawsuits against Google in recent years](https://www.njoag.gov/forty-attorneys-general-announce-historic-settlement-with-google-over-location-tracking-practices/), alleging monopolistic behavior in the company’s search and advertising operations. These legal actions contend that Google has abused its market position by prioritizing its own services in search results, restricting rival advertisers, and creating barriers for competing tech firms. [In 2023, Google faced a landmark trial in the DOJ’s largest antitrust case against a tech company in over two decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Google_LLC_(2023)), signaling the government’s seriousness about curbing Google’s power. [In October 2024, the DOJ said in a court filing that it might seek to have Google’s core businesses broken up.](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/09/tech/us-government-considers-a-breakup-of-google/index.html) Lawmakers and advocacy groups argue that a breakup—splitting Google into separate entities for its search, advertising, and other business arms—might be the only effective way to restore competition in the digital market.\n\nWhile Google has defended itself by asserting that its products benefit consumers and enhance competition, the company faces significant obstacles ahead. Its legal battles are likely to drag on for years, and the political climate increasingly favors stricter tech regulations. [Moreover, rising public concerns about privacy, misinformation, and tech monopolies add pressure on the government to take decisive action.](https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/antitrust-action-against-google-may-transform-the-internet/) Although a breakup remains uncertain, the outcome of Google’s ongoing legal challenges could reshape the technology landscape and set a precedent for regulating other tech giants.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the U.S. Federal Government mandates structural remedies for Google LLC, commonly referred to as \"break-ups\". These remedies must require Google to divest from, or spin off into separate companies, any of the following divisions:\n\n- Chrome\n- Android OS\n- Pixel phones\n- YouTube\n- Google Ads\n- Google Maps\n- Gmail\n- Google Cloud\n\nFor a **Yes** resolution, the divestiture or separation must be fully completed before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29501, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757920715.69862, "end_time": 1758223857.614, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757920715.69862, "end_time": 1758223857.614, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.058341874139159026 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.348222179188786, 3.5118022062264176, 0.10117303050480864, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.9406398806244313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9511683097991879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 268, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US break up google?\n\nIn recent years, [Google has come under intense scrutiny from regulators and policymakers in the United States,](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/03/tech-companies-us-eu-battles-00156110)raising questions about whether the tech giant could face a forced breakup. Once celebrated as an innovative pioneer in the internet age, Google’s vast reach and influence now place it at the center of antitrust debates. The company, which dominates global online search, digital advertising, and mobile operating systems through its ownership of Android, is seen by many as holding an outsized share of power over critical digital infrastructure. [Critics argue that Google’s practices have stifled competition, restricted consumer choice, and concentrated control over personal data and information flow.](https://www.yalelawjournal.org/note/amazons-antitrust-paradox)\n\nThe [U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ)](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-google-monopolizing-digital-advertising-technologies) and [several state attorneys general have filed multiple lawsuits against Google in recent years](https://www.njoag.gov/forty-attorneys-general-announce-historic-settlement-with-google-over-location-tracking-practices/), alleging monopolistic behavior in the company’s search and advertising operations. These legal actions contend that Google has abused its market position by prioritizing its own services in search results, restricting rival advertisers, and creating barriers for competing tech firms. [In 2023, Google faced a landmark trial in the DOJ’s largest antitrust case against a tech company in over two decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Google_LLC_(2023)), signaling the government’s seriousness about curbing Google’s power. [In October 2024, the DOJ said in a court filing that it might seek to have Google’s core businesses broken up.](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/09/tech/us-government-considers-a-breakup-of-google/index.html) Lawmakers and advocacy groups argue that a breakup—splitting Google into separate entities for its search, advertising, and other business arms—might be the only effective way to restore competition in the digital market.\n\nWhile Google has defended itself by asserting that its products benefit consumers and enhance competition, the company faces significant obstacles ahead. Its legal battles are likely to drag on for years, and the political climate increasingly favors stricter tech regulations. [Moreover, rising public concerns about privacy, misinformation, and tech monopolies add pressure on the government to take decisive action.](https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/antitrust-action-against-google-may-transform-the-internet/) Although a breakup remains uncertain, the outcome of Google’s ongoing legal challenges could reshape the technology landscape and set a precedent for regulating other tech giants." }, { "id": 29499, "title": "Will there be greater than or equal to 3,900 emojis on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-greater-than-or-equal-to-3900-emojis-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.648167Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.824644Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 146, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29362, "title": "Will there be greater than or equal to 3,900 emojis on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.648167Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T00:42:56.032455Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "July 17th is World Emoji Day. This day is typically used by platform vendors to announce new emojis supported on their platform. \n\nEmojis are a subsection of the Unicode standard, and by World Emoji Day, the upcoming version of the yearly Unicode standard is in a very stable state, so that the total number of Emojis can be determined.\n\nThe number of Emojis has increased steadily since [Unicode v11.0 in 2018 when it was at 2789](https://unicode.org/emoji/charts-11.0/emoji-counts.html) to [3633 in Unicode v14.0, published 2021](https://unicode.org/emoji/charts-14.0/emoji-counts.html).\n\nWhat will be the growth trend of Emojis in the next five years and how many emojis will be there in Unicode 19.0, expected in 2026?", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve according to the total number of Emojis reported in the [Emoji Counts](https://unicode.org/emoji/charts/emoji-counts.html) table published by Unicode, Inc.\n\nIf no Emoji Counts chart is published by Unicode, Inc. at that location, Metaculus moderators may determine the count according to numbers published by Unicode, Inc. or a successor organization elsewhere. \n\nIf the latest version of the Unicode standard at resolution time is not 19.0, the question will be resolved according to the latest released version. This also applies if the standard ceases to be updated or published in the meantime", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29499, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730556932.199111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730556932.199111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.2844445004882763 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8379487954001852, 0.6098846417211545, 0.029941953078415226, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 2.6142154576563197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.6421441672210039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2463476933176922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7534511936854392, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22886390336957266, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.8165389917759325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3571884672884433 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 67.04759920146861, "peer_score": 76.39217381299491, "coverage": 0.9948997511466343, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9948997511466343, "spot_peer_score": 85.25576649450718, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 67.04759920146861, "peer_archived_score": 76.39217381299491, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 85.25576649450718, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 137, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "July 17th is World Emoji Day. This day is typically used by platform vendors to announce new emojis supported on their platform. \n\nEmojis are a subsection of the Unicode standard, and by World Emoji Day, the upcoming version of the yearly Unicode standard is in a very stable state, so that the total number of Emojis can be determined.\n\nThe number of Emojis has increased steadily since [Unicode v11.0 in 2018 when it was at 2789](https://unicode.org/emoji/charts-11.0/emoji-counts.html) to [3633 in Unicode v14.0, published 2021](https://unicode.org/emoji/charts-14.0/emoji-counts.html).\n\nWhat will be the growth trend of Emojis in the next five years and how many emojis will be there in Unicode 19.0, expected in 2026?" }, { "id": 29498, "title": "Will Sam Altman's net worth exceed $1 billion on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-sam-altmans-net-worth-exceed-1-billion-on-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.506660Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.280371Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 151, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29361, "title": "Will Sam Altman's net worth exceed $1 billion on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.506660Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:38:04.991563Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of October 8, 2024, Altman's net worth was listed as exactly $1 billion, according to Forbes.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to his [Forbes Profile](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-altman/) Sam Altman's net worth is higher than $1 billion on December 31, 2024. For purposes of this question, this is defined as $1.1 billion or higher (no rounding), according to that specific resolution link. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). 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"title": "In Nebraska will Initiative 439, the Right to Abortion Initiative, receive more votes than Initiative 434, the Prohibit Abortions After the 1st Trimester Amendment?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.502798Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T18:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T18:53:09.784022Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, 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If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.", "post_id": 29497, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730556949.269644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.506 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730556949.269644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.506 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.494, 0.506 ], "means": [ 0.5074458310100147 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 1.1799596782034454, 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'Consumers who have purchased these products are urged not to consume them. These products should be thrown away or returned to the place of purchase.' Perdue Foods LLC said in a news release that 'a foreign material was identified in a limited number of consumer packages.' FSIS said metal was found in the products and was discovered after consumer complaints about metal wire embedded in the food. 'We determined the material to be a very thin strand of metal wire that was inadvertently introduced into the manufacturing process,' said Jeff Shaw, Perdue’s senior vice president of food safety and quality. 'Out of an abundance of caution, we decided to voluntarily recall all of these packages of products.' There have been no confirmed reports of illness or injury, FSIS and Perdue said.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Purdue Foods's frozen, ready-to-eat chicken breast nugget and tender items is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/perdue-foods-llc-recalls-frozen-ready-eat-chicken-breast-nugget-and-tender-products) is accessed by Metaculus after November 15, 2024. 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", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves as **Yes** if the reported diluted earnings per share of Apple, Inc., for the third quarter of 2024 are >$1.60, based on the earnings report estimated to be released on November 7, 2024. If they are less than or equal to that number, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Only GAAP diluted earnings per share will be considered. Should the date of the earnings announcement be moved, resolution will be on that date. 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" }, { "id": 29493, "title": "Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 World Chess Championship?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-gukesh-dommaraju-win-the-2024-world-chess-championship", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.170503Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.118038Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 127, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T14:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29356, "title": "Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 World Chess Championship?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.170503Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T14:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-12T14:14:58.700831Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of 2024, the [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) is determined by a match of 14 games between the current world champion and the winner of the Candidates tournament. In the previous world chess championship in 2023, Ding Liren defeated Ian Nepomniachtchi in a nerve-wracking match. The match featured 6 decisive classical games over the board, more than all such matches since 1996, and was decided in the last minutes of the fourth tie-break game.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if Gukesh Dommaraju is the winner of the 2024 World Chess Championship, according to official results announced by [FIDE](https://www.fide.com/news).", "fine_print": "If Gukesh forfeits the match, this question will resolve as **No**. If Ding forfeits the match the question will resolve as **Yes**, as long as FIDE announces that Gukesh is the new world champion.\n\nOtherwise, if the match is cancelled or postponed to after December 31, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 29493, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730557715.428738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47900000000000004 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730557715.428738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47900000000000004 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41000000000000003, 0.59 ], "means": [ 0.5541947220135887 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 1.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.12200872167164427, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.15910440812023074, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 1.097078341557532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 1.3921158805780292, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.9010594006694327, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8780031277551628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 31.282728686981294, "peer_score": 28.815131675317616, "coverage": 0.9907530324299025, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9907530324299025, "spot_peer_score": 21.743307213804773, "spot_baseline_score": 23.87868595871165, "baseline_archived_score": 31.282728686981294, "peer_archived_score": 28.815131675317616, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.743307213804773, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 23.87868595871165 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of 2024, the [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) is determined by a match of 14 games between the current world champion and the winner of the Candidates tournament. In the previous world chess championship in 2023, Ding Liren defeated Ian Nepomniachtchi in a nerve-wracking match. The match featured 6 decisive classical games over the board, more than all such matches since 1996, and was decided in the last minutes of the fourth tie-break game." }, { "id": 29492, "title": "Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-white-christmas-in-at-least-4-of-these-9-large-european-cities-in-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.164826Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.975026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 124, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-29T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T20:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29355, "title": "Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.164826Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-29T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T20:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-30T20:23:00.617596Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question!\n\nCultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at all. Neither do all Russians celebrate Christmas in December. These differences are irrelevant for the question, which is focused on Christmas as celebrated by most cultures around the northern Atlantic.\n\n----\n\nThis question uses METAR data as the source for convenience, because it provides a standardised view into actual observed weather at diverse geographical locations. Here's an example of a METAR report:\n\n> METAR UUEE 050800Z 28003MPS 240V320 7000 -SN SCT006 M11/M13 Q1018 R24L/490336 R24C/490336 NOSIG=\n\nThe standard allows for many optional components, but common components are\n\n- The reporting station (in this case UUEE, which is a Moscow airport) comes after the preamble\n- the day and time of observation (in this case 050800Z meaning day 5 of the month, at 8 o'clock UTC)\n- wind speed and direction (in this case 28003MPS meaning 280°, 3 m/s)\n- visibility (in this case 7000 meaning 7000 metres)\n- cloud cover (in this case SCT006 meaning scattered at 600 feet)\n- temperature (in this case M11/M13 meaning temperature of -11 °C)\n- air pressure (in this case Q1018 meaning 1018 millibar)\n- runway information, starting with R\n- a near-term forecast (in this case NOSIG meaning no significant change expected)\n\nBut! Critically for this question, there are also indications of precipitation. In the example above, that's \"-SN\" for \"light snow\".\n\nHere are some other examples of reports indicating snow:\n\n> METAR ESSA 270120Z 01005KT 9999 -SN SCT007 BKN009 OVC046 M05/M06 Q1010 RESN BECMG BKN020=`\n\nRESN means \"recent snow\"\n\n> METAR ESNU 252220Z 33009KT 9999 SG FEW018 OVC055 M03/M05 Q1003=\n\nSG means \"snow grains\"\n\n> METAR EFOU 041820Z AUTO 14003KT 9999 -SHSN SCT044 M13/M15 Q1013=\n\n-SHSN means \"light snow shower\"\n\nFor decoding reports, [the web tool by Flight Plan Database](https://flightplandatabase.com/METAR) can be a helpful assistant.", "resolution_criteria": "The 10 largest cities in Europe [according to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_cities_by_population_within_city_limits#Largest_cities) are\n\n- Istanbul\n- Moscow\n- London\n- Saint Petersburg\n- Berlin\n- Madrid\n- Kyiv\n- Rome\n- Bucharest\n- Paris\n\nFor this question, we unfortunately have to exclude Kyiv due to the lack of standardised aerodrome weather reporting in the area.\n\nEach of the remaining 9 cities will have been considered to have had a white Christmas if, on either of the days 24 December or 25 December, there has been precipitation in the form of snow. The selection will be set to begin at hour 0 UTC on the 24th and end at hour 23 UTC on the 25th.\n\nIf four or more of them have had a white Christmas, then this question resolves as **Yes**. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "To determine whether there has been precipitation in these cities, the [Ogimet METAR](http://www.ogimet.com/metars.phtml.en) historic data for the dates given above will be consulted. If that source is down, a similar one will be located. If none can be found with reasonable effort, the question resolves Ambiguous.\n\nThe lookup will be made for the following airports (corresponding to the cities listed above, excluding Kyiv): LTFM, UUEE, EGLL, ULLI, EDDB, LEMD, LIRF, LROP, LFPG. Any reference to snow (SN), snow grains (SG), snow pellets (SP or GS), or snow shower (SW) will count as there being precipitation in the form of snow.", "post_id": 29492, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730556993.28711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.182 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730556993.28711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.182 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.28522247649035143 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1936608536909636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.22042859672213486, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.7203196603611988, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.07755734487342231, 0.14645117361277293, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.1602422049088038, 0.0, 1.2340542689183787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9789630928095061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.2272294463004, "peer_score": 5.20760999859781, "coverage": 0.9900569522104883, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9900569522104883, "spot_peer_score": 1.092841174907305, "spot_baseline_score": 50.58909297299573, "baseline_archived_score": 55.2272294463004, "peer_archived_score": 5.20760999859781, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.092841174907305, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 50.58909297299573 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question!\n\nCultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at all. Neither do all Russians celebrate Christmas in December. These differences are irrelevant for the question, which is focused on Christmas as celebrated by most cultures around the northern Atlantic.\n\n----\n\nThis question uses METAR data as the source for convenience, because it provides a standardised view into actual observed weather at diverse geographical locations. Here's an example of a METAR report:\n\n> METAR UUEE 050800Z 28003MPS 240V320 7000 -SN SCT006 M11/M13 Q1018 R24L/490336 R24C/490336 NOSIG=\n\nThe standard allows for many optional components, but common components are\n\n- The reporting station (in this case UUEE, which is a Moscow airport) comes after the preamble\n- the day and time of observation (in this case 050800Z meaning day 5 of the month, at 8 o'clock UTC)\n- wind speed and direction (in this case 28003MPS meaning 280°, 3 m/s)\n- visibility (in this case 7000 meaning 7000 metres)\n- cloud cover (in this case SCT006 meaning scattered at 600 feet)\n- temperature (in this case M11/M13 meaning temperature of -11 °C)\n- air pressure (in this case Q1018 meaning 1018 millibar)\n- runway information, starting with R\n- a near-term forecast (in this case NOSIG meaning no significant change expected)\n\nBut! Critically for this question, there are also indications of precipitation. In the example above, that's \"-SN\" for \"light snow\".\n\nHere are some other examples of reports indicating snow:\n\n> METAR ESSA 270120Z 01005KT 9999 -SN SCT007 BKN009 OVC046 M05/M06 Q1010 RESN BECMG BKN020=`\n\nRESN means \"recent snow\"\n\n> METAR ESNU 252220Z 33009KT 9999 SG FEW018 OVC055 M03/M05 Q1003=\n\nSG means \"snow grains\"\n\n> METAR EFOU 041820Z AUTO 14003KT 9999 -SHSN SCT044 M13/M15 Q1013=\n\n-SHSN means \"light snow shower\"\n\nFor decoding reports, [the web tool by Flight Plan Database](https://flightplandatabase.com/METAR) can be a helpful assistant." }, { "id": 29491, "title": "Will the US State Department approve more than 25 arms sales globally in the fourth quarter of 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-state-department-approve-more-than-25-arms-sales-globally-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.157997Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.707868Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 126, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29354, "title": "Will the US State Department approve more than 25 arms sales globally in the fourth quarter of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.157997Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:24:53.940498Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales per month have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Month | Number |\r\n|-----------------|--------|\r\n| October 2024 | 9 |\r\n| September 2024 | 12 |\r\n| August 2024 | 22 |\r\n| July 2024 | 4 |\r\n| June 2024 | 7 |\r\n| May 2024 | 10 |\r\n| April 2024 | 7 |\r\n| March 2024 | 10 |\r\n| February 2024 | 8 |\r\n| January 2024 | 7 |\r\n| December 2023 | 17 |\r\n| November 2023 | 5 |\r\n| October 2023 | 7 |\r\n| September 2023 | 7 |\r\n| August 2023 | 5 |\r\n| July 2023 | 4 |\r\n| June 2023 | 12 |\r\n| May 2023 | 7 |\r\n| April 2023 | 6 |\r\n| March 2023 | 10 |\r\n| February 2023 | 5 |\r\n| December 2022 | 6 |\r\n| November 2022 | 8 |\r\n| October 2022 | 3 |\r\n| September 2022 | 5 |\r\n| August 2022 | 7 |\r\n| July 2022 | 13 |\r\n| June 2022 | 3 |\r\n| May 2022 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 6 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 |\r\n| February 2022 | 9 |\r\n| January 2022 | 5 |\r\n| December 2021 | 5 |\r\n| November 2021 | 1 |\r\n| October 2021 | 1 |\r\n| September 2021 | 2 |\r\n| August 2021 | 8 |\r\n| July 2021 | 3 |\r\n| June 2021 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 3 |\r\n| April 2021 | 4 |\r\n| March 2021 | 6 |\r\n| February 2021 | 5 |\r\n| December 2020 | 15 |\r\n| November 2020 | 6 |\r\n| October 2020 | 11 |\r\n| September 2020 | 9 |\r\n| August 2020 | 2 |\r\n| July 2020 | 15 |\r\n| June 2020 | 2 |\r\n| May 2020 | 7 |\r\n| April 2020 | 8 |\r\n| March 2020 | 4 |\r\n| February 2020 | 5 |\r\n| January 2020 | 2 |\r\n| December 2019 | 1 |\r\n| November 2019 | 5 |\r\n| October 2019 | 8 |\r\n| September 2019 | 5 |\r\n\r\nThe average per month is 6.7. The month of August 2024, with 22 sales, was the record highest since the monthly archive begin, in 2004.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the total number of arms sales approvals by the US State Department listed at the Major Arms Sales [notifications page](https://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/archive-date/202410) by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency for October 2024, November 2024, and December 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "Note that some State Department arms approvals are subject to congressional approval; however, this question only asks about arms sales listed at the resolution source as being approved by the State Department, even if later rejected by Congress.\r\n\r\nEvery listing will count as only one event, regardless of the number of types of equipment listed.", "post_id": 29491, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730557001.273784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.755 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730557001.273784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.755 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.39, 0.61 ], "means": [ 0.5715753551920852 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2830705323376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1511868377135775, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.3620041976852515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2768779209071979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6927993366562459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3765054322997954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_score": 25.946394910192836, "peer_score": 10.62068726479406, "coverage": 0.9893789321404913, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9893789321404913, "spot_peer_score": 13.819867655122033, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 25.946394910192836, "peer_archived_score": 10.62068726479406, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.819867655122033 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales per month have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Month | Number |\r\n|-----------------|--------|\r\n| October 2024 | 9 |\r\n| September 2024 | 12 |\r\n| August 2024 | 22 |\r\n| July 2024 | 4 |\r\n| June 2024 | 7 |\r\n| May 2024 | 10 |\r\n| April 2024 | 7 |\r\n| March 2024 | 10 |\r\n| February 2024 | 8 |\r\n| January 2024 | 7 |\r\n| December 2023 | 17 |\r\n| November 2023 | 5 |\r\n| October 2023 | 7 |\r\n| September 2023 | 7 |\r\n| August 2023 | 5 |\r\n| July 2023 | 4 |\r\n| June 2023 | 12 |\r\n| May 2023 | 7 |\r\n| April 2023 | 6 |\r\n| March 2023 | 10 |\r\n| February 2023 | 5 |\r\n| December 2022 | 6 |\r\n| November 2022 | 8 |\r\n| October 2022 | 3 |\r\n| September 2022 | 5 |\r\n| August 2022 | 7 |\r\n| July 2022 | 13 |\r\n| June 2022 | 3 |\r\n| May 2022 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 6 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 |\r\n| February 2022 | 9 |\r\n| January 2022 | 5 |\r\n| December 2021 | 5 |\r\n| November 2021 | 1 |\r\n| October 2021 | 1 |\r\n| September 2021 | 2 |\r\n| August 2021 | 8 |\r\n| July 2021 | 3 |\r\n| June 2021 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 3 |\r\n| April 2021 | 4 |\r\n| March 2021 | 6 |\r\n| February 2021 | 5 |\r\n| December 2020 | 15 |\r\n| November 2020 | 6 |\r\n| October 2020 | 11 |\r\n| September 2020 | 9 |\r\n| August 2020 | 2 |\r\n| July 2020 | 15 |\r\n| June 2020 | 2 |\r\n| May 2020 | 7 |\r\n| April 2020 | 8 |\r\n| March 2020 | 4 |\r\n| February 2020 | 5 |\r\n| January 2020 | 2 |\r\n| December 2019 | 1 |\r\n| November 2019 | 5 |\r\n| October 2019 | 8 |\r\n| September 2019 | 5 |\r\n\r\nThe average per month is 6.7. The month of August 2024, with 22 sales, was the record highest since the monthly archive begin, in 2004." }, { "id": 29490, "title": "Will the US State Department approve more than 20 arms sales globally in the fourth quarter of 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-state-department-approve-more-than-20-arms-sales-globally-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.150737Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.903216Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 138, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T11:20:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29353, "title": "Will the US State Department approve more than 20 arms sales globally in the fourth quarter of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.150737Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T11:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-29T13:27:18.503475Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales per month have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Month | Number |\r\n|-----------------|--------|\r\n| October 2024 | 9 |\r\n| September 2024 | 12 |\r\n| August 2024 | 22 |\r\n| July 2024 | 4 |\r\n| June 2024 | 7 |\r\n| May 2024 | 10 |\r\n| April 2024 | 7 |\r\n| March 2024 | 10 |\r\n| February 2024 | 8 |\r\n| January 2024 | 7 |\r\n| December 2023 | 17 |\r\n| November 2023 | 5 |\r\n| October 2023 | 7 |\r\n| September 2023 | 7 |\r\n| August 2023 | 5 |\r\n| July 2023 | 4 |\r\n| June 2023 | 12 |\r\n| May 2023 | 7 |\r\n| April 2023 | 6 |\r\n| March 2023 | 10 |\r\n| February 2023 | 5 |\r\n| December 2022 | 6 |\r\n| November 2022 | 8 |\r\n| October 2022 | 3 |\r\n| September 2022 | 5 |\r\n| August 2022 | 7 |\r\n| July 2022 | 13 |\r\n| June 2022 | 3 |\r\n| May 2022 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 6 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 |\r\n| February 2022 | 9 |\r\n| January 2022 | 5 |\r\n| December 2021 | 5 |\r\n| November 2021 | 1 |\r\n| October 2021 | 1 |\r\n| September 2021 | 2 |\r\n| August 2021 | 8 |\r\n| July 2021 | 3 |\r\n| June 2021 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 3 |\r\n| April 2021 | 4 |\r\n| March 2021 | 6 |\r\n| February 2021 | 5 |\r\n| December 2020 | 15 |\r\n| November 2020 | 6 |\r\n| October 2020 | 11 |\r\n| September 2020 | 9 |\r\n| August 2020 | 2 |\r\n| July 2020 | 15 |\r\n| June 2020 | 2 |\r\n| May 2020 | 7 |\r\n| April 2020 | 8 |\r\n| March 2020 | 4 |\r\n| February 2020 | 5 |\r\n| January 2020 | 2 |\r\n| December 2019 | 1 |\r\n| November 2019 | 5 |\r\n| October 2019 | 8 |\r\n| September 2019 | 5 |\r\n\r\nThe average per month is 6.7. The month of August 2024, with 22 sales, was the record highest since the monthly archive begin, in 2004.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the total number of arms sales approvals by the US State Department listed at the Major Arms Sales [notifications page](https://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/archive-date/202410) by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency for October 2024, November 2024, and December 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "Note that some State Department arms approvals are subject to congressional approval; however, this question only asks about arms sales listed at the resolution source as being approved by the State Department, even if later rejected by Congress.\r\n\r\nEvery listing will count as only one event, regardless of the number of types of equipment listed.", "post_id": 29490, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730557010.486679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730557010.486679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6008835820990486 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.898038362287616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.31515450677976214, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.5201174589361244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5975878340537664, 0.0, 0.1421680501211729, 0.0, 0.0, 1.12392191488675, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.8546211334455732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 35.83096340667867, "peer_score": -0.6256661963340936, "coverage": 0.9885961299306817, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9885961299306817, "spot_peer_score": -3.7437169491520215, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 35.83096340667867, "peer_archived_score": -0.6256661963340936, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.7437169491520215, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales per month have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Month | Number |\r\n|-----------------|--------|\r\n| October 2024 | 9 |\r\n| September 2024 | 12 |\r\n| August 2024 | 22 |\r\n| July 2024 | 4 |\r\n| June 2024 | 7 |\r\n| May 2024 | 10 |\r\n| April 2024 | 7 |\r\n| March 2024 | 10 |\r\n| February 2024 | 8 |\r\n| January 2024 | 7 |\r\n| December 2023 | 17 |\r\n| November 2023 | 5 |\r\n| October 2023 | 7 |\r\n| September 2023 | 7 |\r\n| August 2023 | 5 |\r\n| July 2023 | 4 |\r\n| June 2023 | 12 |\r\n| May 2023 | 7 |\r\n| April 2023 | 6 |\r\n| March 2023 | 10 |\r\n| February 2023 | 5 |\r\n| December 2022 | 6 |\r\n| November 2022 | 8 |\r\n| October 2022 | 3 |\r\n| September 2022 | 5 |\r\n| August 2022 | 7 |\r\n| July 2022 | 13 |\r\n| June 2022 | 3 |\r\n| May 2022 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 6 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 |\r\n| February 2022 | 9 |\r\n| January 2022 | 5 |\r\n| December 2021 | 5 |\r\n| November 2021 | 1 |\r\n| October 2021 | 1 |\r\n| September 2021 | 2 |\r\n| August 2021 | 8 |\r\n| July 2021 | 3 |\r\n| June 2021 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 3 |\r\n| April 2021 | 4 |\r\n| March 2021 | 6 |\r\n| February 2021 | 5 |\r\n| December 2020 | 15 |\r\n| November 2020 | 6 |\r\n| October 2020 | 11 |\r\n| September 2020 | 9 |\r\n| August 2020 | 2 |\r\n| July 2020 | 15 |\r\n| June 2020 | 2 |\r\n| May 2020 | 7 |\r\n| April 2020 | 8 |\r\n| March 2020 | 4 |\r\n| February 2020 | 5 |\r\n| January 2020 | 2 |\r\n| December 2019 | 1 |\r\n| November 2019 | 5 |\r\n| October 2019 | 8 |\r\n| September 2019 | 5 |\r\n\r\nThe average per month is 6.7. The month of August 2024, with 22 sales, was the record highest since the monthly archive begin, in 2004." }, { "id": 29489, "title": "Will the US State Department approve more than 15 arms sales globally in the fourth quarter of 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-state-department-approve-more-than-15-arms-sales-globally-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.143528Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.652409Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 120, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T21:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29352, "title": "Will the US State Department approve more than 15 arms sales globally in the fourth quarter of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.143528Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T21:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-04T21:02:25.951138Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales per month have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Month | Number |\r\n|-----------------|--------|\r\n| October 2024 | 9 |\r\n| September 2024 | 12 |\r\n| August 2024 | 22 |\r\n| July 2024 | 4 |\r\n| June 2024 | 7 |\r\n| May 2024 | 10 |\r\n| April 2024 | 7 |\r\n| March 2024 | 10 |\r\n| February 2024 | 8 |\r\n| January 2024 | 7 |\r\n| December 2023 | 17 |\r\n| November 2023 | 5 |\r\n| October 2023 | 7 |\r\n| September 2023 | 7 |\r\n| August 2023 | 5 |\r\n| July 2023 | 4 |\r\n| June 2023 | 12 |\r\n| May 2023 | 7 |\r\n| April 2023 | 6 |\r\n| March 2023 | 10 |\r\n| February 2023 | 5 |\r\n| December 2022 | 6 |\r\n| November 2022 | 8 |\r\n| October 2022 | 3 |\r\n| September 2022 | 5 |\r\n| August 2022 | 7 |\r\n| July 2022 | 13 |\r\n| June 2022 | 3 |\r\n| May 2022 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 6 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 |\r\n| February 2022 | 9 |\r\n| January 2022 | 5 |\r\n| December 2021 | 5 |\r\n| November 2021 | 1 |\r\n| October 2021 | 1 |\r\n| September 2021 | 2 |\r\n| August 2021 | 8 |\r\n| July 2021 | 3 |\r\n| June 2021 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 3 |\r\n| April 2021 | 4 |\r\n| March 2021 | 6 |\r\n| February 2021 | 5 |\r\n| December 2020 | 15 |\r\n| November 2020 | 6 |\r\n| October 2020 | 11 |\r\n| September 2020 | 9 |\r\n| August 2020 | 2 |\r\n| July 2020 | 15 |\r\n| June 2020 | 2 |\r\n| May 2020 | 7 |\r\n| April 2020 | 8 |\r\n| March 2020 | 4 |\r\n| February 2020 | 5 |\r\n| January 2020 | 2 |\r\n| December 2019 | 1 |\r\n| November 2019 | 5 |\r\n| October 2019 | 8 |\r\n| September 2019 | 5 |\r\n\r\nThe average per month is 6.7. The month of August 2024, with 22 sales, was the record highest since the monthly archive begin, in 2004.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the total number of arms sales approvals by the US State Department listed at the Major Arms Sales [notifications page](https://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/archive-date/202410) by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency for October 2024, November 2024, and December 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "Note that some State Department arms approvals are subject to congressional approval; however, this question only asks about arms sales listed at the resolution source as being approved by the State Department, even if later rejected by Congress.\r\n\r\nEvery listing will count as only one event, regardless of the number of types of equipment listed.", "post_id": 29489, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730557018.481862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7876666666666666 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730557018.481862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7876666666666666 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7148323120211758 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.10111441089353605, 0.44071068269949837, 0.21228082485103633, 0.19708644593186858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.585722325258019, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 2.624792777320332, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.7678469387895398, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4356665217070187, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9594981899349004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales per month have been as follows:\r\n\r\n| Month | Number |\r\n|-----------------|--------|\r\n| October 2024 | 9 |\r\n| September 2024 | 12 |\r\n| August 2024 | 22 |\r\n| July 2024 | 4 |\r\n| June 2024 | 7 |\r\n| May 2024 | 10 |\r\n| April 2024 | 7 |\r\n| March 2024 | 10 |\r\n| February 2024 | 8 |\r\n| January 2024 | 7 |\r\n| December 2023 | 17 |\r\n| November 2023 | 5 |\r\n| October 2023 | 7 |\r\n| September 2023 | 7 |\r\n| August 2023 | 5 |\r\n| July 2023 | 4 |\r\n| June 2023 | 12 |\r\n| May 2023 | 7 |\r\n| April 2023 | 6 |\r\n| March 2023 | 10 |\r\n| February 2023 | 5 |\r\n| December 2022 | 6 |\r\n| November 2022 | 8 |\r\n| October 2022 | 3 |\r\n| September 2022 | 5 |\r\n| August 2022 | 7 |\r\n| July 2022 | 13 |\r\n| June 2022 | 3 |\r\n| May 2022 | 4 |\r\n| April 2022 | 6 |\r\n| March 2022 | 4 |\r\n| February 2022 | 9 |\r\n| January 2022 | 5 |\r\n| December 2021 | 5 |\r\n| November 2021 | 1 |\r\n| October 2021 | 1 |\r\n| September 2021 | 2 |\r\n| August 2021 | 8 |\r\n| July 2021 | 3 |\r\n| June 2021 | 4 |\r\n| May 2021 | 3 |\r\n| April 2021 | 4 |\r\n| March 2021 | 6 |\r\n| February 2021 | 5 |\r\n| December 2020 | 15 |\r\n| November 2020 | 6 |\r\n| October 2020 | 11 |\r\n| September 2020 | 9 |\r\n| August 2020 | 2 |\r\n| July 2020 | 15 |\r\n| June 2020 | 2 |\r\n| May 2020 | 7 |\r\n| April 2020 | 8 |\r\n| March 2020 | 4 |\r\n| February 2020 | 5 |\r\n| January 2020 | 2 |\r\n| December 2019 | 1 |\r\n| November 2019 | 5 |\r\n| October 2019 | 8 |\r\n| September 2019 | 5 |\r\n\r\nThe average per month is 6.7. The month of August 2024, with 22 sales, was the record highest since the monthly archive begin, in 2004." }, { "id": 29488, "title": "Will it rain more than 200mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-it-rain-more-than-200mm-in-brasilia-brazil-in-december-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.008066Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.931568Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 136, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T21:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29351, "title": "Will it rain more than 200mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.008066Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T21:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-30T21:55:16.053850Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.\r\n\r\nDecember is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the amount of measured and recorded cumulative rainfall (in millimeters) at the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) weather station [83377] BRASILIA - DF for the month of December 2024.\r\n\r\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:\r\n\r\n1. Go to the INMET weather station map [here](https://mapas.inmet.gov.br/).\r\n2. Click the 🔍search icon on the left side of the screen.\r\n3. Paste this into the search box: [83377] BRASILIA - DF\r\n4. Click on the blue dot to access the weather station.\r\n\r\nTo access the precipitation data, click on \"Tabela\". The question will resolve based on the total *Chuva (mm)* for the month of December 2024.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable or data have not been released for every day of December, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025 for the data to be available, at which point if they still are not available, this question will be **annulled**.\r\n\r\nThis question resolves based on the values shown when accessed by Metaculus after the data for December 31 are first released. Further revisions to the data will not be considered.", "post_id": 29488, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730557025.924258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730557025.924258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6071101322648915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.08517259963641256, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 1.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43474683173158835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.649329888337202, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.6251936934436408, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 1.6790475143301864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_score": 47.74798032920196, "peer_score": 14.431099183891718, "coverage": 0.9873721157069559, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9873721157069559, "spot_peer_score": 24.318141591145505, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 47.74798032920196, "peer_archived_score": 14.431099183891718, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.318141591145505 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.\r\n\r\nDecember is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain." }, { "id": 29487, "title": "Will it rain more than 150mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-it-rain-more-than-150mm-in-brasilia-brazil-in-december-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.001527Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.301721Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 139, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T21:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29350, "title": "Will it rain more than 150mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.001527Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T21:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-30T21:54:24.744196Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.\r\n\r\nDecember is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the amount of measured and recorded cumulative rainfall (in millimeters) at the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) weather station [83377] BRASILIA - DF for the month of December 2024.\r\n\r\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:\r\n\r\n1. Go to the INMET weather station map [here](https://mapas.inmet.gov.br/).\r\n2. Click the 🔍search icon on the left side of the screen.\r\n3. Paste this into the search box: [83377] BRASILIA - DF\r\n4. Click on the blue dot to access the weather station.\r\n\r\nTo access the precipitation data, click on \"Tabela\". The question will resolve based on the total *Chuva (mm)* for the month of December 2024.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable or data have not been released for every day of December, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025 for the data to be available, at which point if they still are not available, this question will be **annulled**.\r\n\r\nThis question resolves based on the values shown when accessed by Metaculus after the data for December 31 are first released. Further revisions to the data will not be considered.", "post_id": 29487, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730557034.287005, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730557034.287005, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7352474009525032 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09310373741633968, 0.11123030328809189, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7400238327107918, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 1.685239684536949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.18396331465778554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.392236543822543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_score": 65.90315952595176, "peer_score": 6.1966664668098765, "coverage": 0.9866489527650454, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9866489527650454, "spot_peer_score": 8.253528503126457, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 65.90315952595176, "peer_archived_score": 6.1966664668098765, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.253528503126457 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 132, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.\r\n\r\nDecember is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain." } ] }
