Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1840
{ "count": 5953, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1860", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1820", "results": [ { "id": 29488, "title": "Will it rain more than 200mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-it-rain-more-than-200mm-in-brasilia-brazil-in-december-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.008066Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.931568Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 136, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T21:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29351, "title": "Will it rain more than 200mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.008066Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T21:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-30T21:55:16.053850Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.\r\n\r\nDecember is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the amount of measured and recorded cumulative rainfall (in millimeters) at the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) weather station [83377] BRASILIA - DF for the month of December 2024.\r\n\r\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:\r\n\r\n1. Go to the INMET weather station map [here](https://mapas.inmet.gov.br/).\r\n2. Click the 🔍search icon on the left side of the screen.\r\n3. Paste this into the search box: [83377] BRASILIA - DF\r\n4. Click on the blue dot to access the weather station.\r\n\r\nTo access the precipitation data, click on \"Tabela\". The question will resolve based on the total *Chuva (mm)* for the month of December 2024.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable or data have not been released for every day of December, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025 for the data to be available, at which point if they still are not available, this question will be **annulled**.\r\n\r\nThis question resolves based on the values shown when accessed by Metaculus after the data for December 31 are first released. Further revisions to the data will not be considered.", "post_id": 29488, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730557025.924258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730557025.924258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6071101322648915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.08517259963641256, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 1.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43474683173158835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.649329888337202, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.6251936934436408, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 1.6790475143301864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_score": 47.74798032920196, "peer_score": 14.431099183891718, "coverage": 0.9873721157069559, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9873721157069559, "spot_peer_score": 24.318141591145505, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 47.74798032920196, "peer_archived_score": 14.431099183891718, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.318141591145505 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.\r\n\r\nDecember is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain." }, { "id": 29487, "title": "Will it rain more than 150mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-it-rain-more-than-150mm-in-brasilia-brazil-in-december-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.001527Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.301721Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 139, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T21:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29350, "title": "Will it rain more than 150mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:30.001527Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T21:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-30T21:54:24.744196Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.\r\n\r\nDecember is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the amount of measured and recorded cumulative rainfall (in millimeters) at the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) weather station [83377] BRASILIA - DF for the month of December 2024.\r\n\r\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:\r\n\r\n1. Go to the INMET weather station map [here](https://mapas.inmet.gov.br/).\r\n2. Click the 🔍search icon on the left side of the screen.\r\n3. Paste this into the search box: [83377] BRASILIA - DF\r\n4. Click on the blue dot to access the weather station.\r\n\r\nTo access the precipitation data, click on \"Tabela\". The question will resolve based on the total *Chuva (mm)* for the month of December 2024.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable or data have not been released for every day of December, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025 for the data to be available, at which point if they still are not available, this question will be **annulled**.\r\n\r\nThis question resolves based on the values shown when accessed by Metaculus after the data for December 31 are first released. Further revisions to the data will not be considered.", "post_id": 29487, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730557034.287005, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730557034.287005, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7352474009525032 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09310373741633968, 0.11123030328809189, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7400238327107918, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 1.685239684536949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.18396331465778554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.392236543822543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_score": 65.90315952595176, "peer_score": 6.1966664668098765, "coverage": 0.9866489527650454, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9866489527650454, "spot_peer_score": 8.253528503126457, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 65.90315952595176, "peer_archived_score": 6.1966664668098765, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.253528503126457 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 132, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.\r\n\r\nDecember is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain." }, { "id": 29486, "title": "Will it rain more than 100mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-it-rain-more-than-100mm-in-brasilia-brazil-in-december-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:29.994129Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.798426Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 138, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T22:29:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29349, "title": "Will it rain more than 100mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:29.994129Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T22:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-20T22:30:49.797786Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.\r\n\r\nDecember is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the amount of measured and recorded cumulative rainfall (in millimeters) at the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) weather station [83377] BRASILIA - DF for the month of December 2024.\r\n\r\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:\r\n\r\n1. Go to the INMET weather station map [here](https://mapas.inmet.gov.br/).\r\n2. Click the 🔍search icon on the left side of the screen.\r\n3. Paste this into the search box: [83377] BRASILIA - DF\r\n4. Click on the blue dot to access the weather station.\r\n\r\nTo access the precipitation data, click on \"Tabela\". The question will resolve based on the total *Chuva (mm)* for the month of December 2024.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable or data have not been released for every day of December, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025 for the data to be available, at which point if they still are not available, this question will be **annulled**.\r\n\r\nThis question resolves based on the values shown when accessed by Metaculus after the data for December 31 are first released. Further revisions to the data will not be considered.", "post_id": 29486, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730557041.84666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9411 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730557041.84666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9411 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8111157217240216 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17206643756038165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.215685620092141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.4787003551682186, 0.0, 0.0, 1.494481940887989, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.037197912973893646, 0.23237033748995323, 0.240735243588669, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 1.4686946440239423, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 74.98854200095789, "peer_score": 2.130582244298823, "coverage": 0.985994599836844, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.985994599836844, "spot_peer_score": 4.141595272123062, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 74.98854200095789, "peer_archived_score": 2.130582244298823, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.141595272123062, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 132, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.\r\n\r\nDecember is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain." }, { "id": 29485, "title": "[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "short-fuse-will-californias-proposition-33-allowing-rent-control-pass-in-the-2024-general-election", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:29.986710Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.760060Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 137, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T20:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29348, "title": "[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:29.986710Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T20:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-06T20:03:56.593670Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Proposition 33 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_33,_Prohibit_State_Limitations_on_Local_Rent_Control_Initiative_(2024))) will appear on the state-wide ballot in California for the US General Election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will pass if a simple majority who vote on the measure approve it. Since this question will be decided by popular vote, this question essentially asks whether sentiment in California had shifted since the post-Covid housing crisis on whether voters would be inclined to favor rent control. This might be a bellwether on popular attitudes on the housing crisis and progressive sentiment in the United States where people demand the government to take proactive measures to address certain social problems. \r\n\r\nProposition 33 would repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, which prevents local governments from enacting rent control on homes built after 1995 or if the tenants move out. Essentially, Proposition 33 will empower local governments to have more available courses of action to reduce rents. Governor Gavin Newsom passed a law in 2019 that capped rent increase in California to 5 percent plus the rate of inflation or a maximum of 10 percent. However, proponents of Proposition 33 argue that this is insufficient. \r\n\r\nGenerally, tenant advocates support Proposition 33, while landlord interest groups are bankrolling the campaign against it. \r\n\r\nThe conventional wisdom among economists is that rent control will lower the supply of housing since it reduces the profit incentive for developers to produce more housing.\r\n\r\nIn 2020, Proposition 21 was on the ballot, which would authorize cities to enact rent control ordinances. The Proposition only received 40.1 percent approval out of the votes of voted on the proposition. \r\n\r\nSources:\r\nhttps://calmatters.org/housing/2024/10/prop-33-2024-fact-check/\r\nhttps://calmatters.org/election-2020-guide/proposition-21-rent-control/", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if California Proposition 33 passes in the state's 2024 general election, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that this question is looking only at whether the ballot measure passes. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.", "post_id": 29485, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730557050.935288, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.395 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730557050.935288, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.395 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.605, 0.395 ], "means": [ 0.3853833832945217 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9198367298836694, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 1.4572614395892909, 0.07805035281635142, 0.9331172541848732, 0.0, 0.13461295092244627, 0.5013942422680996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 2.2928206648352223, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 33.21582024222637, "peer_score": -1.5045974015735981, "coverage": 0.9856042906945504, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9856042906945504, "spot_peer_score": -4.725000475507228, "spot_baseline_score": 27.500704749986976, "baseline_archived_score": 33.21582024222637, "peer_archived_score": -1.5045974015735981, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.725000475507228, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 27.500704749986976 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 132, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Proposition 33 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_33,_Prohibit_State_Limitations_on_Local_Rent_Control_Initiative_(2024))) will appear on the state-wide ballot in California for the US General Election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will pass if a simple majority who vote on the measure approve it. Since this question will be decided by popular vote, this question essentially asks whether sentiment in California had shifted since the post-Covid housing crisis on whether voters would be inclined to favor rent control. This might be a bellwether on popular attitudes on the housing crisis and progressive sentiment in the United States where people demand the government to take proactive measures to address certain social problems. \r\n\r\nProposition 33 would repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, which prevents local governments from enacting rent control on homes built after 1995 or if the tenants move out. Essentially, Proposition 33 will empower local governments to have more available courses of action to reduce rents. Governor Gavin Newsom passed a law in 2019 that capped rent increase in California to 5 percent plus the rate of inflation or a maximum of 10 percent. However, proponents of Proposition 33 argue that this is insufficient. \r\n\r\nGenerally, tenant advocates support Proposition 33, while landlord interest groups are bankrolling the campaign against it. \r\n\r\nThe conventional wisdom among economists is that rent control will lower the supply of housing since it reduces the profit incentive for developers to produce more housing.\r\n\r\nIn 2020, Proposition 21 was on the ballot, which would authorize cities to enact rent control ordinances. The Proposition only received 40.1 percent approval out of the votes of voted on the proposition. \r\n\r\nSources:\r\nhttps://calmatters.org/housing/2024/10/prop-33-2024-fact-check/\r\nhttps://calmatters.org/election-2020-guide/proposition-21-rent-control/" }, { "id": 29484, "title": "Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-world-health-organization-prequalify-moxidectin-before-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:29.977925Z", "published_at": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.010017Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 136, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29347, "title": "Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-01T13:01:29.977925Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T23:20:44.068350Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n\nAccording to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n\n>Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n\nAs of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n\nHowever, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n\nIn 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n\nHowever, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n\nAccording to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n\n>Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n\n>In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n\nSee Also:\n\n- Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n- [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n- Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds moxidectin to its prequalification (PQ) list, according to official WHO announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Note that this question resolves **Yes** only if moxidectin achieves PQ approval for the treatment of onchocerciasis. If moxidectin achieves PQ approval for another indication, but not onchocerciasis, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nAlthough Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is developing moxidectin for potential WHO PQ, this question resolves regardless of which entity achieves the PQ.", "post_id": 29484, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730557059.201317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730557059.201317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1942107752745787 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7153758110169408, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.2853327939587583, 0.20887796465700578, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 1.9336474661640062, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8460440871035082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 78.71887928849952, "peer_score": 9.679182302504426, "coverage": 0.9854027108682526, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9854027108682526, "spot_peer_score": 7.0329218468831325, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 78.71887928849952, "peer_archived_score": 9.679182302504426, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.0329218468831325, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 130, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n\nAccording to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n\n>Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n\nAs of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n\nHowever, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n\nIn 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n\nHowever, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n\nAccording to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n\n>Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n\n>In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n\nSee Also:\n\n- Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n- [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n- Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US." }, { "id": 29440, "title": "Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?", "short_title": "US Two or More COVID-19 Waves in 2028 and 2029?", "url_title": "US Two or More COVID-19 Waves in 2028 and 2029?", "slug": "us-two-or-more-covid-19-waves-in-2028-and-2029", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 126626, "username": 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false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29312, "title": "Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?", "created_at": "2024-10-31T17:50:45.106672Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-03T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-03T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-10-31T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-02T04:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-02T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/whats-new/covid-19-can-surge-throughout-the-year.html) (CDC) from July 2024:\n\n>Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, infections with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have peaked during the winter and also surged at other times of the year. These periodic surges are due in part to the emergence of new variants and decreasing immunity from previous infections and vaccinations. Because the evolution of new variants remains unpredictable, SARS-CoV-2 is not a typical \"winter\" respiratory virus.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>COVID-19 activity tends to fluctuate with the seasons, meaning it has some seasonal patterns. Data from four years of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths show that COVID-19 has winter peaks (most recently in late December 2023 and early January 2024), but also summer peaks (most recently in July and August of 2023). There is no distinct COVID-19 season like there is for influenza (flu) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). While flu and RSV have a generally defined fall/winter seasonality and circulate at low levels in most parts of the United States in the summer, meaningful COVID-19 activity occurs at other times of the year.\n\nAccording to a [Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health article](https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2024/why-covid-cases-rise-every-summer) from August 2024:\n\n>While the U.S. has experienced a wave of COVID cases every summer since 2020, it’s too early to say whether this is a long-term trend. Many public health experts still expect the virus’s annual spread will eventually look more like those of flu and RSV, which tend to peak during the winter. But exactly how long it will take to settle into that seasonal pattern is not clear.\n>\n>\"Historically, there are examples of viruses that do settle into a seasonal pattern after a transition period,\" [Andy Pekosz, PhD, a professor in Molecular Microbiology and Immunology,] says, pointing to the 1918 influenza pandemic, which he says took five or six years to take on the seasonal pattern we’ve come to expect. \"We've got to hope that it'll settle into a more seasonal pattern, but we should also start thinking about strategies to deal with it if it doesn't.\"\n\nThe question of whether COVID-19 will eventually settle into a regular seasonal pattern similar to flu has been an open one. An observational study in 2022 of 30 countries from the period February 2020–December 2021 [found](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9021461/) COVID waves repeating in periods of 3 to 9 months. See also a study by [Wiemken et al. (2023)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-31057-1) on seasonal trends in COVID-19 in the United States and Europe, which found seasonal patterns from approximately November through April, though with smaller waves also appearing in summer months.\n\nThe pattern of COVID-19 waves in the United States can be viewed on [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/resp-net/dashboard/index.html), as shown as of October 2024 in the image below:\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in at least one of the respiratory disease seasons starting in 2028 and 2029, there are at least two COVID-19 wave peaks in the United States. The question will resolve according to [RESP-NET hospitalization data](https://www.cdc.gov/resp-net/dashboard/index.html) or whichever US government hospitalization data source is considered to be most representative of national COVID-19 activity at the time.\n\nThe seasons starting in 2028 and 2029 will be considered to be October 1, 2028, to September 30, 2029, and October 1, 2029, to September 30, 2030, respectively, inclusive of all weeks ending in those periods.\n\nA wave peak is defined as a weekly hospitalization rate that:\n- is higher than or equal to the hospitalization rates of the 5 preceding and 5 following weeks (the five week period might include weeks occurring outside the 2028-2029 and 2029-2030 seasons)\n- is at least 3 per 100,000 (or the equivalent if an alternate data source is used) and at least 2.5 times the lowest rate of that season.\n- If two hospitalization rates that both fulfill the above criteria are within 5 weeks of each other, the earlier of the two will be considered the peak.\n\nFor example, below is how many separate waves occurred in each of the listed seasons, according to these criteria:\n\n- 2020-2021: 3 wave peaks (Jan 9, Apr 17, Sep 4)\n- 2021-2022: 2 wave peaks (Jan 8, Jul 30)\n- 2022-2023: 2 wave peaks (Dec 31, Sep 30)\n- 2023-2024: 2 wave peaks (Dec 30, Aug 10)", "fine_print": "- If both the 2028 and 2029 respiratory seasons have only one or no wave peaks according to the definition above, the question will resolve as **No**.\n\n- If necessary, Metaculus will rely on information and characterizations from CDC to determine whether another source is more representative of national COVID-19 activity during the period in question, and will apply the same criteria described above to any alternate source used.\n\n- In the event Metaculus assesses that data presented is not reliable, for example due to missing weeks in the data or backlogged reporting showing sharp changes in the trend, Metaculus may choose to ignore weeks for which data appears unreliable, use other data sources to supplement the selected data, or, if Metaculus assesses that data issues cannot be worked around, may **annul** the question.\n\n- The question will be resolved using non-preliminary data, which as of October 2024 is at least one month after the listed week end date.\n\n- Once Metaculus has assessed that the data is non-preliminary and has resolved the question, later updates or revisions to the data will be immaterial.", "post_id": 29440, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757238028.427106, "end_time": 1759740573.077, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757238028.427106, "end_time": 1759740573.077, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.2594685665993274 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.5526897438579171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 1.4840835266235404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0647930243457338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.03105063701600968, 0.06456484912809458, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 194, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/whats-new/covid-19-can-surge-throughout-the-year.html) (CDC) from July 2024:\n\n>Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, infections with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have peaked during the winter and also surged at other times of the year. These periodic surges are due in part to the emergence of new variants and decreasing immunity from previous infections and vaccinations. Because the evolution of new variants remains unpredictable, SARS-CoV-2 is not a typical \"winter\" respiratory virus.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>COVID-19 activity tends to fluctuate with the seasons, meaning it has some seasonal patterns. Data from four years of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths show that COVID-19 has winter peaks (most recently in late December 2023 and early January 2024), but also summer peaks (most recently in July and August of 2023). There is no distinct COVID-19 season like there is for influenza (flu) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). While flu and RSV have a generally defined fall/winter seasonality and circulate at low levels in most parts of the United States in the summer, meaningful COVID-19 activity occurs at other times of the year.\n\nAccording to a [Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health article](https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2024/why-covid-cases-rise-every-summer) from August 2024:\n\n>While the U.S. has experienced a wave of COVID cases every summer since 2020, it’s too early to say whether this is a long-term trend. Many public health experts still expect the virus’s annual spread will eventually look more like those of flu and RSV, which tend to peak during the winter. But exactly how long it will take to settle into that seasonal pattern is not clear.\n>\n>\"Historically, there are examples of viruses that do settle into a seasonal pattern after a transition period,\" [Andy Pekosz, PhD, a professor in Molecular Microbiology and Immunology,] says, pointing to the 1918 influenza pandemic, which he says took five or six years to take on the seasonal pattern we’ve come to expect. \"We've got to hope that it'll settle into a more seasonal pattern, but we should also start thinking about strategies to deal with it if it doesn't.\"\n\nThe question of whether COVID-19 will eventually settle into a regular seasonal pattern similar to flu has been an open one. An observational study in 2022 of 30 countries from the period February 2020–December 2021 [found](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9021461/) COVID waves repeating in periods of 3 to 9 months. See also a study by [Wiemken et al. (2023)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-31057-1) on seasonal trends in COVID-19 in the United States and Europe, which found seasonal patterns from approximately November through April, though with smaller waves also appearing in summer months.\n\nThe pattern of COVID-19 waves in the United States can be viewed on [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/resp-net/dashboard/index.html), as shown as of October 2024 in the image below:\n" }, { "id": 29438, "title": "Will at least three of the five major networks declare a winner in the upcoming US presidential election by noon ET on Nov. 6?", "short_title": "Timing of presidential election results?", "url_title": "Timing of presidential election results?", "slug": "timing-of-presidential-election-results", "author_id": 211683, "author_username": "NonzeroNews", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-31T16:39:57.780400Z", "published_at": "2024-10-31T16:40:34.535423Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.443252Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-31T16:40:34.535421Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T12:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3649, "name": "Nonzero Newsletter Community", "type": "community", "slug": "nonzero", "description": "A Metaculus Community for Robert Wright's Nonzero Newsletter and Podcast", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-24_at_2.08.03PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/PCE1WV8g_400x400.jpg", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 211683, "username": "NonzeroNews", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3649, "name": "Nonzero Newsletter Community", "type": "community", "slug": "nonzero", "description": "A Metaculus Community for Robert Wright's Nonzero Newsletter and Podcast", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-24_at_2.08.03PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/PCE1WV8g_400x400.jpg", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 211683, "username": "NonzeroNews", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29311, "title": "Will at least three of the five major networks declare a winner in the upcoming US presidential election by noon ET on Nov. 6?", "created_at": "2024-10-31T16:39:57.780475Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-05T01:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-05T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T12:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-26T12:18:29.318677Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Every election from 2004 to 2016 was called before noon on the day after the election. In 2020, it took four days before most networks certified Joe Biden's victory.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, the five major networks are NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN and Fox News. To resolve in the affirmative, any three of these five networks must declare a winner by noon ET on Nov. 6.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29438, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730761935.857616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730761935.857616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4852711976310219 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.503214724408055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.52469016568468, "peer_score": 19.86699503304401, "coverage": 0.935898118974904, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.935898118974904, "spot_peer_score": 12.59981320960208, "baseline_archived_score": 12.52469016568468, "peer_archived_score": 19.86699503304401, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.59981320960208 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Every election from 2004 to 2016 was called before noon on the day after the election. In 2020, it took four days before most networks certified Joe Biden's victory." }, { "id": 29433, "title": "Will North Dakota voters approve Initiated Measure 5, which would legalize recreational marijuana in the state?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-north-dakota-voters-approve-initiated-measure-5-which-would-legalize-recreational-marijuana-in-the-state", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-31T13:38:12.265433Z", "published_at": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.110796Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T18:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29306, "title": "Will North Dakota voters approve Initiated Measure 5, which would legalize recreational marijuana in the state?", "created_at": "2024-10-31T13:38:12.265433Z", "open_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T18:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T19:20:32.751610Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: [North Dakota Initiated Measure 5, Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/North_Dakota_Initiated_Measure_5,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2024))", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if North Dakota Initiated Measure 5 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.", "post_id": 29433, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730470543.202789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3725 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730470543.202789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3725 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4364127462131326 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6600117700059882, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.48733719833923383, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.425407607615389, 0.0, 1.0352011021202736, 0.1296267078906556, 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Other overturnings of this question's assumptions such as cancelled elections will cause the question to be **annulled**. Please note that this a non-exhaustive list of edge cases that would cause annulment or ambiguous resolutions, and forecasters are encouraged to refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled) in case of any questions.", "post_id": 29425, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730470700.651339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.442 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730470700.651339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.442 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36221147398850834 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2413639992368561, 0.5976372721385812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.8129864172614811, 0.0, 0.0, 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