Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1860
{ "count": 5953, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1880", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1840", "results": [ { "id": 29374, "title": "Will Ohio voters approve Ohio Issue 1, which seeks to end gerrymandering in the state?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ohio-voters-approve-ohio-issue-1-which-seeks-to-end-gerrymandering-in-the-state", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-30T13:09:07.737735Z", "published_at": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.823792Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T20:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29256, "title": "Will Ohio voters approve Ohio Issue 1, which seeks to end gerrymandering in the state?", "created_at": "2024-10-30T13:09:07.737735Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T20:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T22:54:23.681760Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [2024 Ohio Issue 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ohio_Issue_1)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Ohio Issue 1 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting.", "fine_print": "Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.", "post_id": 29374, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730384150.954732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7166666666666667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730384150.954732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7166666666666667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.375, 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.6269680026311312 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7095347889677784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11919235601565477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"spot_baseline_archived_score": -41.50374992788438 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Wikipedia: [2024 Ohio Issue 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ohio_Issue_1)" }, { "id": 29373, "title": "Will Democrats be ahead in the generic ballot on Election Day, according to 538?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-democrats-be-ahead-in-the-generic-ballot-on-election-day-according-to-538", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-30T13:09:07.733541Z", "published_at": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.337989Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T23:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29255, "title": "Will Democrats be ahead in the generic ballot on Election Day, according to 538?", "created_at": "2024-10-30T13:09:07.733541Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T23:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T23:33:59.435175Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pew: [Why The Generic Ballot Test?](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2002/10/01/why-the-generic-ballot-test/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the 538 [generic ballot tracker](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/2024/) on November 5, 2024, Democrats lead Republicans in voter support for Congress. If it shows as even or shows Republicans are ahead, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Although multiple generic ballot trackers exist, only the one by 538 will be considered for this question.", "post_id": 29373, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730384160.687671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730384160.687671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.525, 0.475 ], "means": [ 0.44767186252053615 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6447747757508819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 1.4005128714109405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.15335433911473234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 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"unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pew: [Why The Generic Ballot Test?](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2002/10/01/why-the-generic-ballot-test/)" }, { "id": 29372, "title": "Will Democratic Congressman Jared Golden be re-elected in Maine's 2nd Congressional District in the 2024 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-democratic-congressman-jared-golden-be-re-elected-in-maines-2nd-congressional-district-in-the-2024-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-30T13:09:07.729181Z", "published_at": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.315041Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T16:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29254, "title": "Will Democratic Congressman Jared Golden be re-elected in Maine's 2nd Congressional District in the 2024 election?", "created_at": "2024-10-30T13:09:07.729181Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T16:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-17T16:43:10.600117Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Maine's 2nd Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Maine%27s_2nd_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Jared Golden wins the election to the House of Representatives from Maine's 2nd Congressional District in the 2024 US general election. If any other candidate wins, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.", "post_id": 29372, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730384466.613628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5227905655265791 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730384466.613628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5227905655265791 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4772094344734209, 0.5227905655265791 ], "means": [ 0.5020766617538162 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9195046140969454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4973905262035674, 0.17249978086131545, 0.041937583413620604, 0.0, 0.24233740095005632, 0.22927393232657411, 0.0, 1.7530777244319111, 0.0, 0.1045235772690511, 0.0, 0.0, 1.587945935638349, 0.0, 0.3742051120329022, 1.651940908918156, 0.31295893286831755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9265334610275944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028511367218316083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 8.011643288956813, "peer_score": 1.9554442891446915, "coverage": 0.9849815920022903, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9849815920022903, "spot_peer_score": 3.1993142066980136, "spot_baseline_score": 6.43050110684165, "baseline_archived_score": 8.011643288956813, "peer_archived_score": 1.9554442891446915, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.1993142066980136, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 6.43050110684165 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Maine's 2nd Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Maine%27s_2nd_Congressional_District). 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"title": "Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-30T13:09:07.564283Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T23:19:18.428937Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, 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To that end, SpaceX developed [a way to catch the Super Heavy booster](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-5-launch-super-heavy-booster-catch-success-video), using the launch tower. However, it is still unclear when SpaceX will re-use one of the caught boosters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, SpaceX successfully launches Starship using a previously flown booster.", "fine_print": "- A successful launch is defined as one in which both Starship and booster leave the launchpad under their own power, and the booster separates from Starship at the intended point in flight.\n- The booster does not need to be or have been caught by the chopsticks system at any stage. Any re-use of a booster meeting the criteria will result in a **Yes** resolution.\n- In cases of ambiguity about the booster’s identity (e.g., because parts of different boosters have been combined), this question will resolve based on [the booster’s serial number](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy#Development).", "post_id": 29368, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730384214.816266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5720000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730384214.816266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5720000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4273274026757567 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.8944019211569298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.6623807254737055, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.5635240720375112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.8623048610983391, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18533185711045075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6447747757508819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 26.9261331765433, "peer_score": 15.881187105441857, "coverage": 0.9841918356026763, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9841918356026763, "spot_peer_score": 15.117738895095721, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 26.9261331765433, "peer_archived_score": 15.881187105441857, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.117738895095721, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SpaceX aims to make the entire [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system—both the Super Heavy booster and Starship spacecraft—fully reusable with a rapid turnaround between launches. To that end, SpaceX developed [a way to catch the Super Heavy booster](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-5-launch-super-heavy-booster-catch-success-video), using the launch tower. However, it is still unclear when SpaceX will re-use one of the caught boosters." }, { "id": 29367, "title": "Will election night 2024 end without Dave Wasserman, Nate Silver, or Nate Cohn calling the 2024 presidential election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-election-night-2024-end-without-dave-wasserman-nate-silver-or-nate-cohn-calling-the-2024-presidential-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-30T13:09:07.555960Z", "published_at": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.520072Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T17:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29249, "title": "Will election night 2024 end without Dave Wasserman, Nate Silver, or Nate Cohn calling the 2024 presidential election?", "created_at": "2024-10-30T13:09:07.555960Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T17:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-06T19:24:44.960512Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "All three elections analysts are known for calling elections before official media sources such as the AP. For previous AP calls please see: [Here’s when past presidential elections were called](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4954203-heres-when-past-presidential-elections-were-called/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **No** if Dave Wasserman, Nate Silver, and/or Nate Cohn on their Twitter acounts (currently at @Redistrict, @NateSilver538, and @Nate_Cohn, respectively) call the winner of the presidential election before November 6, 2024 at 4:00 AM Eastern. If none has called a winner before that time and date, this question resolves as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, election night is considered to go through 4 AM on Wednesday November 6, 2024.", "post_id": 29367, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730384222.936555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6166666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730384222.936555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6166666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3833333333333333, 0.6166666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.5593172119213603 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06173507404778539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.9166130681044695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3378822015510121, 1.0004757941566336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8852253901575815, 0.0, 1.4224465576821421, 0.0, 0.7434370297575508, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.45629363360924086, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38552603931517593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -62.62393593636023, "peer_score": -3.313084383277126, "coverage": 0.9839339352095566, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9839339352095566, "spot_peer_score": 7.3044342504417274, "spot_baseline_score": -38.332863955150586, "baseline_archived_score": -62.62393593636023, "peer_archived_score": -3.313084383277126, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.3044342504417274, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -38.332863955150586 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "All three elections analysts are known for calling elections before official media sources such as the AP. For previous AP calls please see: [Here’s when past presidential elections were called](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4954203-heres-when-past-presidential-elections-were-called/)" }, { "id": 29366, "title": "Will Donald Trump says \"win,\" \"won,\" or \"winner\" on election night?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-says-win-won-or-winner-on-election-night", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-30T13:09:07.550046Z", "published_at": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.806122Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T19:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29248, "title": "Will Donald Trump says \"win,\" \"won,\" or \"winner\" on election night?", "created_at": "2024-10-30T13:09:07.550046Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T19:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-06T19:48:07.116329Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On election night 2020, Donald Trump said the word \"won\" 15 times; see transcript [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlmaKdbC6ZM). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump publicly utters the words \"win,\" \"won,\" or \"winner\" on the election night 2024, which for purposes of this question is defined as between 8:00 PM Eastern Time and 5:00 AM Eastern Time. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Determination of whether he has said these words will be at the sole discretion of Metaculus Admins.", "post_id": 29366, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730384232.528447, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.925 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730384232.528447, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.925 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8388556127778972 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.577179033392324, 0.5778677609141162, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 1.109039340474528, 0.00869886565297425, 0.029941953078415226, 0.2501577142572954, 0.1538804463707397, 0.7556015824059469, 0.5694804405873651, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.7351619085229182, 0.9778262608271729, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 77.84957732272389, "peer_score": 2.0673598735164296, "coverage": 0.9836595504510183, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9836595504510183, "spot_peer_score": 1.1722146814462788, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 77.84957732272389, "peer_archived_score": 2.0673598735164296, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.1722146814462788, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On election night 2020, Donald Trump said the word \"won\" 15 times; see transcript [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlmaKdbC6ZM). " }, { "id": 29333, "title": "Will AI outperform superforecasters before 2030?", "short_title": "AI outperforms superforcasters?", "url_title": "AI outperforms superforcasters?", "slug": "ai-outperforms-superforcasters", "author_id": 112910, "author_username": "nor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-29T23:49:39.170587Z", "published_at": "2024-10-29T23:49:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.048139Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-29T23:49:46Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T18:49:06Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-21T18:49:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-30T16:50:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32516, "type": "question_series", "name": "Threshold 2030 Econ Forecasting", "slug": "threshold2030", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-30T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-29T22:53:42.825346Z", "edited_at": "2024-10-29T22:53:42.825350Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32516, "type": "question_series", "name": "Threshold 2030 Econ Forecasting", "slug": "threshold2030", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-30T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-29T22:53:42.825346Z", "edited_at": "2024-10-29T22:53:42.825350Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29223, "title": "Will AI outperform superforecasters before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-10-29T23:49:39.170669Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T16:50:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-30T16:50:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-30T16:50:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-21T18:49:06Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T18:49:06Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## Background Information\r\n\r\nThe question of whether AIs can outperform superforecasters by 2030 is complex and marked by significant uncertainty. Current expert opinions on AI timelines vary widely, with no consensus on when human-level AI will be developed. Some experts believe it could happen within a few years, while others think it is decades away \\[[1](https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines#:~:text=There%20are%20two%20big%20takeaways,that%20it%20cuts%20both%20ways.)\\]\\[[5](https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines#:~:text=More%20details%20can%20be%20found,and%20the%20uncertainty%20is%20high.)\\]. This uncertainty is reflected in the Metaculus community's forecast, which suggests a 50/50 chance of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) being developed by 2040 \\[[2](https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines#:~:text=9%20To%20receive%20this%20feedback%2C,they%20arrived%20at%20their%20predictions.)\\]. \r\n\r\nMoreover, while AI has shown impressive capabilities in specific tasks, outperforming superforecasters involves not just technical proficiency but also nuanced judgment and adaptability in uncertain environments. Historical data indicates that expert forecasts, when formalized and incentivized, tend to be more accurate than informal predictions \\[[12](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/scoring-ml-forecasts-for-2023/#:~:text=In%20this%20case%2C%20it%20seems,monetary%20incentive%20to%20be%20correct.)\\]. However, the high level of uncertainty in AI development timelines suggests that while AI may make significant strides by 2030, confidently predicting it will outperform superforecasters by then remains speculative.\r\n\r\n## Key Factors\r\n\r\n- AI is able to produce a 60% rate of accuracy in predictive financial performance, compared to human experts' accuracy of 53% to 57%, indicating a potential for AI to outperform human forecasters. [Source Published on 2024-05-28](https://money.com/ai-vs-human-financial-analysts/?xid=moneyrss#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20working%20paper%2C,and%20what%20its%20benchmark%20returned.)\r\n- Google DeepMind's AI model outperformed the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) in 90% of over 1,300 atmospheric variables, demonstrating AI's capability in specific forecasting tasks. [Source Published on 2023-11-14](https://www.wired.com/story/google-deepmind-ai-weather-forecast/#:~:text=In%20a%20paper%20published%20today,the%20physics%20of%20the%20atmosphere.)\r\n- Axios reports that it is 'strikingly plausible' that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer. [Source Published on 2024-06-23](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/23/leopold-aschenbrenner-ai-future-silicon-valley#:~:text=%22%20%22If%20there%27s%20one%20lesson,work%20of%20an%20AI%20researcher%2Fengineer.)\r\n- Superforecasters failed to predict Minerva, a result in July 2022 that improved state-of-the-art on MATH from 7% to 50%, showing miscalibrated intuitions. [Source Published on 2023-08-17](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SdkexhiynayG2sQCC/ai-forecasting-two-years-in#:~:text=This%20was%20due%20to%20them,stage%20forecasts%20were%20due%29.%20Conclusion.)\r\n- The Good Judgment Project found that top forecasters performed about 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read intercepts and other secret data, indicating a level of human intuition and insight that AI might struggle to match. [Source Published on 2020-02-18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster#:~:text=A%20study%20published%20in%202021,appeared%20to%20increase%20forecasting%20accuracy.)\r\n\r\n*The above has been researched by AI and may have flaws*", "resolution_criteria": "* AIs will be considered to outperform superforecasters if, before January 1, 2030, a peer-reviewed study has been conducted that shows that one or more AI systems have demonstrated better scores on the same set of forecasting questions than an aggregate of at least ten superforecasters or pro forecasters.\r\n* The scoring system must be a strictly proper scoring system.\r\n* Scores will be considered “better” if they demonstrate a statistical significance (p value) of 5% or less that the AI system(s) are better than the top forecasters, rejecting the null hypothesis of equal performance.\r\n* Statistical significance must adequately account for the multiple comparisons problem.\r\n* A “superforecaster” or “pro forecaster” must be a top forecaster selected based on excellent historical performance satisfying the criteria of a reputable forecasting platform. For example, Metaculus Pro Forecasters or GJ Superforecasters would currently qualify.\r\n* If no peer-reviewed studies have been conducted Metaculus may also consider non-peer-reviewed studies or industry reports that in its judgment satisfy the required level of rigor described above.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29333, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731967980.584515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731967980.584515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.5469349507831497 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.23291600062581813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 1.342865124883188, 0.0, 0.7899439243127377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3369871084062156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0384131802701977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3526517851691326, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## Background Information\r\n\r\nThe question of whether AIs can outperform superforecasters by 2030 is complex and marked by significant uncertainty. Current expert opinions on AI timelines vary widely, with no consensus on when human-level AI will be developed. Some experts believe it could happen within a few years, while others think it is decades away \\[[1](https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines#:~:text=There%20are%20two%20big%20takeaways,that%20it%20cuts%20both%20ways.)\\]\\[[5](https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines#:~:text=More%20details%20can%20be%20found,and%20the%20uncertainty%20is%20high.)\\]. This uncertainty is reflected in the Metaculus community's forecast, which suggests a 50/50 chance of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) being developed by 2040 \\[[2](https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines#:~:text=9%20To%20receive%20this%20feedback%2C,they%20arrived%20at%20their%20predictions.)\\]. \r\n\r\nMoreover, while AI has shown impressive capabilities in specific tasks, outperforming superforecasters involves not just technical proficiency but also nuanced judgment and adaptability in uncertain environments. Historical data indicates that expert forecasts, when formalized and incentivized, tend to be more accurate than informal predictions \\[[12](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/scoring-ml-forecasts-for-2023/#:~:text=In%20this%20case%2C%20it%20seems,monetary%20incentive%20to%20be%20correct.)\\]. However, the high level of uncertainty in AI development timelines suggests that while AI may make significant strides by 2030, confidently predicting it will outperform superforecasters by then remains speculative.\r\n\r\n## Key Factors\r\n\r\n- AI is able to produce a 60% rate of accuracy in predictive financial performance, compared to human experts' accuracy of 53% to 57%, indicating a potential for AI to outperform human forecasters. [Source Published on 2024-05-28](https://money.com/ai-vs-human-financial-analysts/?xid=moneyrss#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20working%20paper%2C,and%20what%20its%20benchmark%20returned.)\r\n- Google DeepMind's AI model outperformed the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) in 90% of over 1,300 atmospheric variables, demonstrating AI's capability in specific forecasting tasks. [Source Published on 2023-11-14](https://www.wired.com/story/google-deepmind-ai-weather-forecast/#:~:text=In%20a%20paper%20published%20today,the%20physics%20of%20the%20atmosphere.)\r\n- Axios reports that it is 'strikingly plausible' that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer. [Source Published on 2024-06-23](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/23/leopold-aschenbrenner-ai-future-silicon-valley#:~:text=%22%20%22If%20there%27s%20one%20lesson,work%20of%20an%20AI%20researcher%2Fengineer.)\r\n- Superforecasters failed to predict Minerva, a result in July 2022 that improved state-of-the-art on MATH from 7% to 50%, showing miscalibrated intuitions. [Source Published on 2023-08-17](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SdkexhiynayG2sQCC/ai-forecasting-two-years-in#:~:text=This%20was%20due%20to%20them,stage%20forecasts%20were%20due%29.%20Conclusion.)\r\n- The Good Judgment Project found that top forecasters performed about 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read intercepts and other secret data, indicating a level of human intuition and insight that AI might struggle to match. [Source Published on 2020-02-18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster#:~:text=A%20study%20published%20in%202021,appeared%20to%20increase%20forecasting%20accuracy.)\r\n\r\n*The above has been researched by AI and may have flaws*" }, { "id": 29320, "title": "Will Joe Rogan endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-joe-rogan-endorse-donald-trump-in-the-2024-election-before-november-5-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:40.040148Z", "published_at": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.922691Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T20:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29211, "title": "Will Joe Rogan endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:40.040148Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T20:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T21:48:29.869401Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Joe Rogan endorsed RFK Jr. following RFK Jr.'s appearance on the Rogan podcast. There are [reports](https://www.essentiallysports.com/ufc-mma-news-joe-rogan-finally-admits-his-curiosity-for-donald-trump-podcast-amid-demand-for-jre-episode/) that Trump may appear on the Rogan podcast, amid increasing praise from Rogan in recent weeks, combined with more criticism for Kamala Harris.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Joe Rogan endorses Donald Trump, according to the Wikipedia page [List of Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign endorsements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_2024_presidential_campaign_endorsements) or credible sources in case of other reporting that is not yet reflected on the Wikipedia page. If there is no such public endorsement, this question resolves as **No**. 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See Wikipedia: [2024 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections)" }, { "id": 29318, "title": "In the 2024 US elections, will Republicans win both the White House and the House of Representatives?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "in-the-2024-us-elections-will-republicans-win-both-the-white-house-and-the-house-of-representatives", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.882695Z", "published_at": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.806999Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-14T14:20:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29209, "title": "In the 2024 US elections, will Republicans win both the White House and the House of Representatives?", "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.882695Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-14T14:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-14T14:21:02.164306Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 US elections will be held on November 5, 2024. See Wikipedia: [2024 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Republican Party wins control of the House of Representives and if the individual who wins the presidential election is the nominee of the Republican Party in the 2024 US elections.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections. 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See Wikipedia: [2024 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections)" }, { "id": 29316, "title": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-have-passed-legislation-that-requires-cybersecurity-around-ai-models-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.875607Z", "published_at": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.251465Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29207, "title": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.875607Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T23:17:26.369780Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.\n\nOne way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”) policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, there is a federal law which requires all U.S. actors in possession of AI models fitting certain criteria to take measures to secure those models. The law must be designed to promote security of powerful models, rather than, for example, models that might compromise individuals' privacy if stolen. If necessary, this will be decided by a judging panel made up of the Metaculus AI Forecasting team, or, failing that (e.g., because the AI Forecasting team no longer exists), at least 3 Metaculus admins: the judging panel would consider the stated intent of those who proposed the initial version of the bill.", "fine_print": "There may well be overlap between the most powerful models and the models that most compromise privacy. 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A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.\n\nOne way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”) policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default." }, { "id": 29315, "title": "Will Donald Trump outperform Rick Scott in Florida in the 2024 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-outperform-rick-scott-in-florida-in-the-2024-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.868720Z", "published_at": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.876172Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T23:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29206, "title": "Will Donald Trump outperform Rick Scott in Florida in the 2024 election?", "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.868720Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T23:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T23:55:28.339600Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Senate Republican candidates are trailing Donald Trump](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/15/senate-election-trump-republicans/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump receives more votes in the 2024 presidential race in the state of Florida than Rick Scott receives in the Senatorial race in that state. 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carmakers](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/09/25/italy-germany-join-carmakers-in-call-to-rethink-internal-combustion-engine-ban) are trying to allow carbon-neutral fuel and petrol cars, with technical measures to not work with normal petrol and gas, to continue to be sold after the ban.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the sale of internal combustion engines to individual, non-commercial customers is no longer allowed in any country of the European Union before January 1, 2025. 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