Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1880
{ "count": 6328, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1900", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1860", "results": [ { "id": 30803, "title": "Will Javier Milei be reelected as President of Argentina before January 1, 2028?", "short_title": "Will Milei be reelected before 2028?", "url_title": "Will Milei be reelected before 2028?", "slug": "will-milei-be-reelected-before-2028", "author_id": 125326, "author_username": "jmcdon10", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-05T19:23:18.976116Z", "published_at": "2024-12-16T10:09:19.118221Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T03:49:18.710544Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-16T10:09:19.118218Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-17T10:08:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30557, "title": "Will Javier Milei be reelected as President of Argentina before January 1, 2028?", "created_at": "2024-12-05T19:23:18.976722Z", "open_time": "2024-12-17T10:08:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-21T10:08:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-21T10:08:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei), a libertarian economist and politician, [was elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election) President of Argentina in 2023 in a surprise upset, after running on a platform emphasizing economic liberalization, shrinking the size of government, and combatting inflation. His tenure has been marked by significant reforms and controversies, with his policies drawing both [strong support and significant criticism](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/world/americas/argentina-president-milei-inflation-economy.html).\n\nMilei will be eligible for reelection when his four-year term ends and new elections are held in late 2027. The last President to be reelected was Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in 2011.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Javier Milei is elected President of Argentina for a second time before January 1, 2028. The result has to be certified by the Argentine authorities. If elections happen, but the result has not been certified before January 1, 2028, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "fine_print": "The Argentine election process includes run-offs in the case where the first round does not produce a winner with a majority. To resolve as **Yes**, Milei will have to win the run-off before January 1, 2028, if one is conducted.", "post_id": 30803, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762487348.359801, "end_time": 1763694263.704, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.522 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762487348.359801, "end_time": 1763694263.704, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.522 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5530055864432063 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.6524576241765255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12100159429586724, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9355721942095092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4590410086040382, 0.32619880252471406, 0.05414553402405742, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 1.0064168514184453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29477545107762443, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.10414493242936362, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.1296267078906556, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06552791729221509 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei), a libertarian economist and politician, [was elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election) President of Argentina in 2023 in a surprise upset, after running on a platform emphasizing economic liberalization, shrinking the size of government, and combatting inflation. His tenure has been marked by significant reforms and controversies, with his policies drawing both [strong support and significant criticism](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/world/americas/argentina-president-milei-inflation-economy.html).\n\nMilei will be eligible for reelection when his four-year term ends and new elections are held in late 2027. The last President to be reelected was Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in 2011." }, { "id": 30783, "title": "Will Xi Jinping continue leading China through January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-xi-jinping-continue-leading-china-through-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-05T14:16:11.969434Z", "published_at": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.470972Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30537, "title": "Will Xi Jinping continue leading China through January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-05T14:16:11.969434Z", "open_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:45:20.052113Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a [92% chance according to a current Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/). There is considerable speculation that Xi will pave the way for a much longer tenure [akin to the tenure of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping](https://www.ft.com/content/71b165a6-052d-4d7d-9006-e2e757f40d98). Having China ruled by a single figure with a potentially unlimited tenure might have considerable ramifications for a variety of topics ranging from the West's China policy to global security concerns.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if either:\n\n * Xi is CCP General Secretary on 1 January, 2025. \n * Xi is paramount leader of China on 1 January, 2025. \n * Xi is de facto leader of China on 1 January, 2025. \n\nThis question will resolve negative if: \n\n * Any other person is leader on 1 January, 2025. \n\nThis question will resolve ambiguous if:\n\n * China ceases to exist as the political entity it is right now", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733493115.57066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.968 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733493115.57066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.968 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9327089380903635 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8606188147841007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 1.0, 1.4572700057914383, 2.2805999036797755, 1.1140826893539562, 0.6933961879697194, 0.41197927042431465, 0.6091619622184999 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.55900338276435, "peer_score": 2.7804545351228125, "coverage": 0.9993636096875977, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9993636096875977, "spot_peer_score": 2.4575114111795724, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 92.55900338276435, "peer_archived_score": 2.7804545351228125, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.4575114111795724, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a [92% chance according to a current Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/). There is considerable speculation that Xi will pave the way for a much longer tenure [akin to the tenure of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping](https://www.ft.com/content/71b165a6-052d-4d7d-9006-e2e757f40d98). Having China ruled by a single figure with a potentially unlimited tenure might have considerable ramifications for a variety of topics ranging from the West's China policy to global security concerns." }, { "id": 30782, "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be President of France on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-emmanuel-macron-be-president-of-france-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-05T14:16:11.710245Z", "published_at": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.854594Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30536, "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be President of France on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-05T14:16:11.710245Z", "open_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:59:53.422560Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[French President Emmanuel Macron says he will NOT resign as crisis engulfs his Government after extremist parties were accused of playing 'Russian roulette' with the country's future](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14154367/french-president-emmanuel-macron-not-resign.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Emmanuel Macron is President of France on December 31, 2024. 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"forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30524, "title": "Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?", "created_at": "2024-12-05T01:50:46.090818Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-13T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-14T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-14T19:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-14T19:43:13.092100Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nIn December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down as follows:\r\n\r\n| Month | MoM Inflation |\r\n| -------- | ------------- |\r\n| Dec 2023 | 25.5% |\r\n| Jan 2024 | 20.6% |\r\n| Feb 2024 | 13.2% |\r\n| Mar 2024 | 11.0% |\r\n| Apr 2024 | 8.8% |\r\n| May 2024 | 4.3% |\r\n| Jun 2024 | 4.6% |\r\n| Jul 2024 | 4.0% |\r\n| Aug 2024 | 4.2% |\r\n| Sep 2024 | 3.5% |\r\n| Oct 2024 | 2.7% |\r\n\r\nFor the year 2023, Argentina's inflation rate was 211%, highest in the world, and Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. In November 2024, President Milei had an [approval rating](https://americasquarterly.org/article/javier-milei-has-surprised-almost-everybody/) of 56%.\r\n\r\nHowever, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2024 is at the time of this question, [according to a report in the Buenos Aires Herald](https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/imf-worsens-argentinas-2024-gdp-forecast-to-3-5-drop), projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to be a 140% annual rate, while GDP is projected to shrink by 3.5% for the year. The initial displacements and short-term economic shrinkage seem to be the price paid for taming inflation. According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's chief economist:\r\n\r\n> The estimated 140% inflation rate “is still a high number, but it is also a reflection of a lot of the inflation that has already happened,\" \\[...] And the sequential inflation is coming down quite fast on the back of very strong measures that have been implemented by country authorities,” particularly President Javier Milei’s sweeping fiscal reforms.\r\n\r\n> “For the first time in a long, long time, the government has delivered a balanced budget. The question is whether it can continue doing so in the future,” the economist said, adding that engagement with Congress and having high quality measures on the fiscal side are key and seem to already be in place.\r\n\r\n> Gourinchas also mentioned the importance of tightening monetary policy to end the government. “All of these things are going in the direction of bringing inflation under control, but it has an impact in terms of economic activity,” the IMF official recognized. Less public spending, he said, has led to tighter monetary conditions, and altogether to “a very significant slowdown for 2024 in Argentina.”\r\n\r\nAdditionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\r\n\r\nAccording to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%. For 2025, JP Morgan forecasts an inflation rate of around 35%, the IMF forecasts around 45%, and D'Amico forecasts around 29%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate is less than 3.0% for the month of February 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), whose monthly report can be accessed [here](https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Nivel4-Tema-3-5-31).\r\n\r\nThe number used will be that reported for the month of February 2025, using the \"Variación % mensual, Total nacional\". For example, the resolution value from [the December 2024 report](https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/ipc_01_2517A7124C09.pdf) would have been 2.7 (2,7 in the number format used in the report).", "fine_print": "* If there are other issues with accessing data at the INDEC website, then Metaculus may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to resolve this question, as long as their numbers are consistent with previous numbers.\r\n* Data for February 2025 is [scheduled to be released](https://www.indec.gob.ar/ftp/cuadros/publicaciones/calendario_1sem2025_ingles.pdf) on March 14, 2025. In the event the necessary figure is not published before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30765, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740804884.10336, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 618, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740804884.10336, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 618, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9415320704037443 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0015211374049208936, 0.05112216333309927, 0.06715656378120265, 0.0, 0.0, 1.294973020891689e-07, 0.0, 4.199992874129581e-08, 0.0, 5.393062251332938e-08, 3.097674382693487e-08, 0.0, 0.001718396345387324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8338679953551206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6187040584639206e-09, 0.04883655730520417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004468991563407465, 0.03536010760950501, 0.0, 2.8416638070610618e-08, 0.0, 0.0003541667572513396, 0.0, 5.583628584314016e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3894258731433944, 0.05233723972293949, 0.14274045261588406, 0.0, 4.4742059195421724e-08, 0.033752779678069056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010357457762686116, 2.444274854840575e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.018800217423039e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034547957931991384, 3.695225744255543e-08, 1.4461768812775757e-07, 0.0663613394487339, 0.0005798676884657008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10729022211289403, 3.463295881277202e-08, 0.2734131402336551, 1.5624197520009832e-09, 0.02158387987609243, 0.0005641506164290567, 0.0, 0.014349065583725111, 2.377435541349561e-05, 0.0, 3.6188692735624336e-05, 0.5342550111915083, 0.0001561154650829404, 0.0, 3.1835113898923537e-07, 2.754076715715221e-07, 4.127090431511221e-07, 0.31199956382329896, 1.399053592450282e-09, 0.056003291692307514, 0.06676927475189948, 0.00039753824153186077, 0.4146068644847566, 0.006503997586078546, 0.004881057497521808, 0.6493890046698525, 0.014004935058012686, 0.0132319757407564, 0.07349094368047521, 0.00027844951526061586, 0.512905952957978, 0.0, 0.7713969323961751, 3.0537609081473827, 2.2572380474236504, 2.6390068816212042, 1.993039845964208, 1.7851396712952163, 5.195982472042439, 25.68889776050341 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 90.6329651118066, "peer_score": 28.16604883220745, "coverage": 0.9962697739465524, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9962697739465524, "spot_peer_score": 34.66060976886927, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 90.6329651118066, "peer_archived_score": 28.16604883220745, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.66060976886927, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1498, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nIn December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down as follows:\r\n\r\n| Month | MoM Inflation |\r\n| -------- | ------------- |\r\n| Dec 2023 | 25.5% |\r\n| Jan 2024 | 20.6% |\r\n| Feb 2024 | 13.2% |\r\n| Mar 2024 | 11.0% |\r\n| Apr 2024 | 8.8% |\r\n| May 2024 | 4.3% |\r\n| Jun 2024 | 4.6% |\r\n| Jul 2024 | 4.0% |\r\n| Aug 2024 | 4.2% |\r\n| Sep 2024 | 3.5% |\r\n| Oct 2024 | 2.7% |\r\n\r\nFor the year 2023, Argentina's inflation rate was 211%, highest in the world, and Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. In November 2024, President Milei had an [approval rating](https://americasquarterly.org/article/javier-milei-has-surprised-almost-everybody/) of 56%.\r\n\r\nHowever, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2024 is at the time of this question, [according to a report in the Buenos Aires Herald](https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/imf-worsens-argentinas-2024-gdp-forecast-to-3-5-drop), projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to be a 140% annual rate, while GDP is projected to shrink by 3.5% for the year. The initial displacements and short-term economic shrinkage seem to be the price paid for taming inflation. According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's chief economist:\r\n\r\n> The estimated 140% inflation rate “is still a high number, but it is also a reflection of a lot of the inflation that has already happened,\" \\[...] And the sequential inflation is coming down quite fast on the back of very strong measures that have been implemented by country authorities,” particularly President Javier Milei’s sweeping fiscal reforms.\r\n\r\n> “For the first time in a long, long time, the government has delivered a balanced budget. The question is whether it can continue doing so in the future,” the economist said, adding that engagement with Congress and having high quality measures on the fiscal side are key and seem to already be in place.\r\n\r\n> Gourinchas also mentioned the importance of tightening monetary policy to end the government. “All of these things are going in the direction of bringing inflation under control, but it has an impact in terms of economic activity,” the IMF official recognized. Less public spending, he said, has led to tighter monetary conditions, and altogether to “a very significant slowdown for 2024 in Argentina.”\r\n\r\nAdditionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\r\n\r\nAccording to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%. For 2025, JP Morgan forecasts an inflation rate of around 35%, the IMF forecasts around 45%, and D'Amico forecasts around 29%." }, { "id": 30763, "title": "Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?", "short_title": "Will an H5 PHEIC be declared by the WHO before 2026?", "url_title": "Will an H5 PHEIC be declared by the WHO before 2026?", "slug": "will-an-h5-pheic-be-declared-by-the-who-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T22:25:49.474092Z", "published_at": "2024-12-11T15:04:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:12:50.309380Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-11T15:04:24Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-12T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 227, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32560, "name": "Future Perfect", "type": "community", "slug": "future-perfect", "description": "Vox's **Future Perfect** spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers [forecast](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/1/24011179/2024-predictions-trump-politics-ohtani-oppenheimer-elections) the coming year and assess their previous [predictions](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics).\r\n\r\n#### This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. \r\n\r\nOn January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them — forecast alongside journalists like [Dylan Matthews](https://x.com/dylanmatt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Kelsey Piper](https://x.com/KelseyTuoc?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), [Sigal Samuel](https://x.com/SigalSamuel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor), see your aggregated predictions appear on Vox.com January 1st, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — $2,500**\r\n\r\n*Find additional information on this tournament and share feedback* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/31137/forecast-2025-with-voxs-future-perfect-team/)*.* \r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n*Communities like this one are a new Metaculus feature that lets anyone create and share forecasting questions on topics they care about. Communities can be publicly listed or kept unlisted. This one was co-created by Future Perfect and Metaculus.* \r\n\r\n*Interested in creating your own Community?* [*Reach out*](mailto:christian@metaculus.com) *to us, or* [*explore*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?communities=true) *existing publicly listed communities.*", "order": 2, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ.webp", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/AdQrbtnQ_98ZQi7L.webp", "followers_count": 132, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": 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"2024-12-14T17:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the WHO, the Emergency Committee of the International Health Regulations (IHR) [consists](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) \"of international experts who provide technical advice to the WHO Director-General in the context of a 'public health emergency of international concern' (PHEIC).\" Important factors the Emergency Committee weighs in its deliberation process are:\n\n1. risks to human health\n2. international spread of the outbreak, and\n3. interference with international travel.\n\nThe final determination of a PHEIC is made by the Director-General of the WHO.\n\nIn recent years, the WHO has declared a PHEIC for the [2022-2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak) and [2023-2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_mpox_epidemic) mpox outbreaks, the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the 2018-2020 [ebola outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_Ebola_epidemic), and the 2015-2016 [Zika epidemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic).\n\nWith respect to H5, at the time of this question the WHO [assesses the risk](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON512) as follows:\n\n> Whenever avian influenza viruses are circulating in birds, there is a risk for sporadic infections in mammals and humans due to exposure to infected animals (including livestock), or contaminated environments and thus, further human cases are not unexpected. Influenza A infection has been rarely reported in bovine species and spread among dairy cattle herds in four U.S. States is being assessed. Previously, there have been human infections with other avian influenza subtypes following exposure to infected mammals.\n\n> Since the virus has not acquired mutations that facilitate transmission among humans and based on available information, WHO assesses the public health risk to the general population posed by this virus to be low and for occupationally exposed persons the risk of infection is considered low-to-moderate.\n\n> There are no specific vaccines for preventing influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. Candidate vaccines to prevent H5 infection in humans have been developed for pandemic preparedness purposes. Close analysis of the epidemiological situation, further characterization of the most recent viruses (from human cases and animal) and comprehensive investigations around human cases are critical to assess associated risk and to adjust risk management measures in a timely manner.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n* US Centers for Disease Control [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html)\n* WHO [Risk assessments and summaries of influenza at the human-animal interface](https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza/monthly-risk-assessment-summary)\n* Pan American Health Organization [Epidemiological alerts and updates](https://www.paho.org/en/epidemiological-alerts-and-updates)\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2026, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any H5 virus to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Per the WHO's [Q\\&A documentation](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees):\n\n> A PHEIC is defined in the IHR (2005) as, “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response”. This definition implies a situation that is:\n\n> * serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected;\n> * carries implications for public health beyond the affected State’s national border; and\n> * may require immediate international action.\n\nIf WHO changes this definition in a manner that a panel of Metaculus Admins determines to be substantial, this question may be either clarified or annulled.\n\nFor purposes of this question, any subtype of H5 (e.g., H5N1, H5Nx) is acceptable if encompassed by the PHEIC.\n\nThe intention is for this question to resolve based on any PHEIC declaration by the WHO. Therefore, this question does not have additional requirements beyond the declaration (for example, human-to-human transmission is not required).", "post_id": 30763, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762917160.021425, "end_time": 1763037222.556, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762917160.021425, "end_time": 1763037222.556, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.993, 0.007 ], "means": [ 0.020716978127734445 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.717018931642059, 5.116575775458431, 1.0143884140253832, 0.02018721735106872, 0.24457336475065328, 0.0392935286539259, 0.03421761283051396, 0.008083813202537763, 0.0, 0.01127371494146295, 0.0, 0.0015257314047317206, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462036, 0.0, 0.011474818895102181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030990763546507186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11524141917366568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005612852165504251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13472216263136438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 788, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the WHO, the Emergency Committee of the International Health Regulations (IHR) [consists](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) \"of international experts who provide technical advice to the WHO Director-General in the context of a 'public health emergency of international concern' (PHEIC).\" Important factors the Emergency Committee weighs in its deliberation process are:\n\n1. risks to human health\n2. international spread of the outbreak, and\n3. interference with international travel.\n\nThe final determination of a PHEIC is made by the Director-General of the WHO.\n\nIn recent years, the WHO has declared a PHEIC for the [2022-2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak) and [2023-2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_mpox_epidemic) mpox outbreaks, the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the 2018-2020 [ebola outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_Ebola_epidemic), and the 2015-2016 [Zika epidemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic).\n\nWith respect to H5, at the time of this question the WHO [assesses the risk](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON512) as follows:\n\n> Whenever avian influenza viruses are circulating in birds, there is a risk for sporadic infections in mammals and humans due to exposure to infected animals (including livestock), or contaminated environments and thus, further human cases are not unexpected. Influenza A infection has been rarely reported in bovine species and spread among dairy cattle herds in four U.S. States is being assessed. Previously, there have been human infections with other avian influenza subtypes following exposure to infected mammals.\n\n> Since the virus has not acquired mutations that facilitate transmission among humans and based on available information, WHO assesses the public health risk to the general population posed by this virus to be low and for occupationally exposed persons the risk of infection is considered low-to-moderate.\n\n> There are no specific vaccines for preventing influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. Candidate vaccines to prevent H5 infection in humans have been developed for pandemic preparedness purposes. Close analysis of the epidemiological situation, further characterization of the most recent viruses (from human cases and animal) and comprehensive investigations around human cases are critical to assess associated risk and to adjust risk management measures in a timely manner.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n* US Centers for Disease Control [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html)\n* WHO [Risk assessments and summaries of influenza at the human-animal interface](https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza/monthly-risk-assessment-summary)\n* Pan American Health Organization [Epidemiological alerts and updates](https://www.paho.org/en/epidemiological-alerts-and-updates)\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 30759, "title": "How likely do you think it is that overall, the impact of High Level Machine Intelligence will be extremely negative for humanity in the long run?", "short_title": "High Level Machine Intelligence Negative for Humanity?", "url_title": "High Level Machine Intelligence Negative for Humanity?", "slug": "high-level-machine-intelligence-negative-for-humanity", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T16:17:48.377636Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T16:20:38.813928Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.975487Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-04T16:20:38.813926Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 12, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 12, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30520, "title": "How likely do you think it is that overall, the impact of High Level Machine Intelligence will be extremely negative for humanity in the long run?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T16:17:48.390447Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*", "resolution_criteria": "By \"extremely negative\" we mean something like human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of human civilization. By \"in the long run\" we mean over hundreds or thousands of years. This question is taken from [Grace et al., (2024)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.02843)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30759, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747149205.427582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747149205.427582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.5172100860885227 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8453161237347404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4158083589503392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*" }, { "id": 30755, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?", "short_title": "OpenAI Flags Medium AI Model Autonomy Risk by 2025?", "url_title": "OpenAI Flags Medium AI Model Autonomy Risk by 2025?", "slug": "openai-flags-medium-ai-model-autonomy-risk-by-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T15:58:31.356378Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T16:20:06.548046Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.063037Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-04T16:20:06.548043Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T18:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 12, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 12, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30516, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T15:58:31.356718Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-01T17:53:38.403220Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T18:46:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n---\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nModel autonomy enables actors to run scaled misuse that can adapt to environmental changes and evade attempts to mitigate or shut down operations.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves to yes if an AI system released by OpenAI has a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy by December 31st 2025.\n\n**Which AI systems count?**\nAny AI system publically reported (not neccessarily releasd) by OpenAI.\n\n[Eli Lifland](https://www.elilifland.com/) is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions. He may consult others for advice as needed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30755, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738406902.793093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738406902.793093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9175576971973217 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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additional background information.*\n\n---\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nModel autonomy enables actors to run scaled misuse that can adapt to environmental changes and evade attempts to mitigate or shut down operations." }, { "id": 30754, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?", "short_title": "OpenAI Flags High AI Persuasion Risk by 2025?", "url_title": "OpenAI Flags High AI Persuasion Risk by 2025?", "slug": "openai-flags-high-ai-persuasion-risk-by-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T15:55:17.130072Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T16:19:59.858182Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T03:41:39.912550Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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publically reported (not neccessarily releasd) by OpenAI.\n\n[Eli Lifland](https://www.elilifland.com/) is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions. 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"slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 12, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32558, "name": "AI 2025 Forecasting Survey", "type": "community", "slug": "ai-survey", "description": "A community for tracking and updating short-term AI capabilities forecasts from the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey).", "order": 5, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 12, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 168127, "username": "romeodean", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30513, "title": "Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T15:52:24.473212Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T16:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-25T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-26T01:41:35.408071Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-25T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": 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"resolution_criteria": "Resolves to yes if an AI system released by OpenAI has a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity by December 31st 2025.\n\n**Which AI systems count?**\nAny AI system publically reported (not neccessarily releasd) by OpenAI.\n\n[Eli Lifland](https://www.elilifland.com/) is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions. He may consult others for advice as needed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740529320.343594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740529320.343594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14, 0.86 ], "means": [ 0.8684950030295076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7295300834792231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 1.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.3383470701293, "peer_score": 1.0636578119237383, "coverage": 0.2071668134257767, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9847073991919201, "spot_peer_score": 0.304263018422523, "spot_baseline_score": 34.482849699744115, "baseline_archived_score": 12.3383470701293, "peer_archived_score": 1.0636578119237383, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.304263018422523, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 34.482849699744115 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the [AI 2025 Forecasting Survey](https://theaidigest.org/2025-ai-forecasting-survey), see the survey questions for additional background information.*\n\n---\n\nOpenAI measures four categories of risk in their [preparedness scorecard](https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf) levels, with ratings ranging from Low-Medium-High-Critical.\n\nCybersecurity is focused on risks related to use of the model for cyber-exploitation to disrupt confidentiality, integrity, and/or availability of computer systems." }, { "id": 30744, "title": "Will Dogecoin close at below $0.50 a share every day before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-dogecoin-close-at-below-050-a-share-every-day-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.393979Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.353311Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30505, "title": "Will Dogecoin close at below $0.50 a share every day before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.393979Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:44:40.109069Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victory/articleshow/115209313.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price of Dogecoin according to [this Coingecko link](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogecoin/historical_data) remains below $0.50 a share for the closing price for each day after the launch of this question and before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "Intraday prices do not count; this question resolves based on daily closing prices. No other resolution source will be considered. The specific link to the website of the resolution source is given for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that will be used for resolution. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled** if it still cannot be accessed.", "post_id": 30744, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733408565.674564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733408565.674564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6741666179806115 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3022224809961703, 0.0, 1.026372451192788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.3058323220141224, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04705632026720761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 1.932251820719309, 0.0, 0.437849609369003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49289813246650943, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.601578890077775, "peer_score": 21.387868582804884, "coverage": 0.9983789486796768, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9983789486796768, "spot_peer_score": 30.80506100437545, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 58.601578890077775, "peer_archived_score": 21.387868582804884, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.80506100437545, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victory/articleshow/115209313.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst)" }, { "id": 30743, "title": "Will the Alpental ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 6, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-alpental-ski-resort-be-listed-as-open-by-on-the-snows-ski-report-on-december-6-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.380403Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.639708Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T13:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30504, "title": "Will the Alpental ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 6, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.380403Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T13:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T13:53:02.648645Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From the resolution source: \"Alpental (German for alpine valley) is one of four base areas at the Summit at Snoqualmie, separated from the other three by Interstate 90. Alpental offers the most advanced and expert terrain at the area with runs like Upper International and Shot Six. The area provides some of the steepest and deepest terrain, but it’s also great for beginner skiers and boarders.\n\nWhere Is Alpental Ski Resort Located?\nThe Summit at Snoqualmie is an hour from Seattle on Interstate 90.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Alpental Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/washington/alpental/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after December 6, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 30743, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733408581.84074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4666666666666666 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733408581.84074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4666666666666666 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36656530728638004 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.5589428929717781, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2574863305246531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.3152994564370336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2563074167145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.7620908974955233, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41744142835195325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21109866324959886, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7366425750996237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 38.92319714529847, "peer_score": 25.72486429348454, "coverage": 0.9977076095370231, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9977076095370231, "spot_peer_score": 21.445613673348152, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 38.92319714529847, "peer_archived_score": 25.72486429348454, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.445613673348152, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From the resolution source: \"Alpental (German for alpine valley) is one of four base areas at the Summit at Snoqualmie, separated from the other three by Interstate 90. Alpental offers the most advanced and expert terrain at the area with runs like Upper International and Shot Six. The area provides some of the steepest and deepest terrain, but it’s also great for beginner skiers and boarders.\n\nWhere Is Alpental Ski Resort Located?\nThe Summit at Snoqualmie is an hour from Seattle on Interstate 90.\"" }, { "id": 30742, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline between $3.020 and $3.080 (inclusive) for the week of December 9, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-national-average-retail-price-of-regular-gasoline-between-3020-and-3080-inclusive-for-the-week-of-december-9-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.366893Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.094284Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T15:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30503, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline between $3.020 and $3.080 (inclusive) for the week of December 9, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.366893Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T15:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-11T15:57:56.658105Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), \"Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price of greater than or equal to $3.020 and less than or equal to $3.080 for the week of December 16, 2024. The resolution source can be accessed through [this link](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w). If the reported figure is different, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If data from US EIA is not available, Metaculus may select a similar source of data or annul the question at their discretion. 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The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards.\"" }, { "id": 30741, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-national-average-retail-price-of-regular-gasoline-be-less-than-3020-for-the-week-of-december-9-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.353232Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.699598Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T15:56:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30502, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.353232Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T15:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-11T15:57:03.577486Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), \"Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price of less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024. The resolution source can be accessed through [this link](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w). If the value is greater than or equal to that amount, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If data from US EIA is not available, Metaculus may select a similar source of data or annul the question at their discretion. 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The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards.\"" }, { "id": 30740, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-national-average-retail-price-of-regular-gasoline-be-greater-than-3080-for-the-week-of-december-9-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.338730Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.845754Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T01:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30501, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.338730Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-11T01:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-11T01:21:18.697592Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), \"Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price of greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024. The resolution source can be accessed through [this link](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w). If the value is less than or equal to that amount, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If data from US EIA is not available, Metaculus may select a similar source of data or annul the question at their discretion. If EIA changes its reporting weeks, the week closest to the date mentioned in the Resolution Criteria will be used.", "post_id": 30740, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733408638.962685, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7333333333333334 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733408638.962685, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7333333333333334 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.41661374903711557 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6134675762751818, 0.13176873170965187, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 2.342087350246705, 0.12211912575561185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2152440756928966, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.35812697679239, "peer_score": 14.876533281015314, "coverage": 0.9952924142584757, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9952924142584757, "spot_peer_score": 29.594043168460768, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 56.35812697679239, "peer_archived_score": 14.876533281015314, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.594043168460768, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), \"Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards.\"" }, { "id": 30739, "title": "Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-november-2024-have-a-global-temperature-increase-of-greater-than-or-equal-to-125-degrees-and-less-than-or-equal-to-131-degrees", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.009103Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.053281Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T19:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30500, "title": "Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.009103Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T19:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T19:57:28.042095Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), \"The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Global Land and Ocean Average Temperature Anomaly for November 2024 is greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees according to NOAA at [this page](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series). Region is \"Global\" and surface is \"Land and Ocean.\"", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30739, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733408657.658539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733408657.658539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.2684871063546744 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 1.2951988981837126, 0.06898336077310675, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.366226455654769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 1.108670033436014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.13225558387246503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1259787024282699, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17312641757353447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.1700528108095, "peer_score": 19.94799659716253, "coverage": 0.9945957277080526, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9945957277080526, "spot_peer_score": 23.53214011697075, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "baseline_archived_score": 58.1700528108095, "peer_archived_score": 19.94799659716253, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.53214011697075, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), \"The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.\"" } ] }
