Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1880
{ "count": 5956, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1900", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1860", "results": [ { "id": 29313, "title": "Will the same presidential candidate win Michigan and Wisconsin in the 2024 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-same-presidential-candidate-win-michigan-and-wisconsin-in-the-2024-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.677075Z", "published_at": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.400611Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T13:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29204, "title": "Will the same presidential candidate win Michigan and Wisconsin in the 2024 election?", "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.677075Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T13:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-08T13:37:55.441739Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Election Forecast Correlations](https://roadtolarissa.com/forecast-correlation/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the same candidate wins the popular vote in Michigan and Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.", "post_id": 29313, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730297804.67006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730297804.67006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6863462447781508 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Election Forecast Correlations](https://roadtolarissa.com/forecast-correlation/)" }, { "id": 29312, "title": "Will Donald Trump win Arizona and Georgia in the 2024 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-win-arizona-and-georgia-in-the-2024-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.673681Z", "published_at": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.178980Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-10T12:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29203, "title": "Will Donald Trump win Arizona and Georgia in the 2024 election?", "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.673681Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-10T12:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-10T12:32:39.633072Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Election Forecast Correlations](https://roadtolarissa.com/forecast-correlation/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Arizona and Georgia in the 2024 presidential election. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.", "post_id": 29312, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730297813.315193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.578 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730297813.315193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.578 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.48488912986212784 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2637227349012356, 0.19376657685266277, 1.1637022757120272, 1.0000660771386234, 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"spot_baseline_archived_score": 2.856915219677092 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Election Forecast Correlations](https://roadtolarissa.com/forecast-correlation/)" }, { "id": 29311, "title": "Will a European Union ban into non-commercial internal combustion engines take effect before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-european-union-ban-into-non-commercial-internal-combustion-engines-take-effect-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.670063Z", "published_at": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.681949Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29202, "title": "Will a European Union ban into non-commercial internal combustion engines take effect before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.670063Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T19:55:19.419167Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Currently, the European Union plans on [banning new petrol and diesel cars from 2035](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/article/20221019STO44572/eu-ban-on-sale-of-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-2035-explained).\nHowever, the last EU election resulted in [record seats for far-right parties and collapse of green parties](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/06/10/european-election-results-a-more-conservative-parliament-under-pressure-from-far-right_6674360_4.html); and [the current biggest EU lawmaker group](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/biggest-eu-lawmaker-group-wants-2035-combustion-car-ban-revised-draft-shows-2024-07-02/) and [some countries and carmakers](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/09/25/italy-germany-join-carmakers-in-call-to-rethink-internal-combustion-engine-ban) are trying to allow carbon-neutral fuel and petrol cars, with technical measures to not work with normal petrol and gas, to continue to be sold after the ban.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the sale of internal combustion engines to individual, non-commercial customers is no longer allowed in any country of the European Union before January 1, 2025. ", "fine_print": "- The ban must cover all combustion engines that rely on fuels that emit CO2 on combustion, including carbon-neutral diesel. Combustion engines relying on fuels that do not produce CO2 when burned, such as hyrdogen combustion engines, do not need to be banned.\n\n- If exceptions to this ban exist, they must permit vehicles that constituted less than 5% of the total non-commercial vehicle sales in the EU during the previous calendar year.\n\n- If more than half of the European Union member countries leave the EU, or countries representing more than half the EU population in January 2024 leave the EU, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 29311, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730297821.317731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.012 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730297821.317731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.012 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.988, 0.012 ], "means": [ 0.04193352994124066 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3223754366981737, 4.3274035188654185, 0.1011216878911307, 0.0, 0.3445918901109067, 3.503865641795247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7800991750591255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45875031368367064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.46882306971406, "peer_score": 1.2138352223845819, "coverage": 0.9923208824876283, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9923208824876283, "spot_peer_score": 2.000229209809378, "spot_baseline_score": 98.25829469225907, "baseline_archived_score": 97.46882306971406, "peer_archived_score": 1.2138352223845819, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.000229209809378, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.25829469225907 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Currently, the European Union plans on [banning new petrol and diesel cars from 2035](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/article/20221019STO44572/eu-ban-on-sale-of-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-2035-explained).\nHowever, the last EU election resulted in [record seats for far-right parties and collapse of green parties](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/06/10/european-election-results-a-more-conservative-parliament-under-pressure-from-far-right_6674360_4.html); and [the current biggest EU lawmaker group](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/biggest-eu-lawmaker-group-wants-2035-combustion-car-ban-revised-draft-shows-2024-07-02/) and [some countries and carmakers](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/09/25/italy-germany-join-carmakers-in-call-to-rethink-internal-combustion-engine-ban) are trying to allow carbon-neutral fuel and petrol cars, with technical measures to not work with normal petrol and gas, to continue to be sold after the ban." }, { "id": 29310, "title": "Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for Marburg virus disease before January 1, 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-secretary-of-the-us-department-of-health-and-human-services-declare-a-public-health-emergency-for-marburg-virus-disease-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.663214Z", "published_at": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.260141Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29201, "title": "Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for Marburg virus disease before January 1, 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.663214Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:40:46.396124Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to CDC, \"The Republic of Rwanda has confirmed several cases of Marburg virus disease (Marburg) in hospitals around the country, including some deaths. This is the country's first Marburg virus outbreak.\nMarburg is a rare but severe hemorrhagic fever, similar to Ebola, that can cause serious illness and death.\nCurrently, there are no cases of Marburg in the United States and the risk of infection with this virus in the United States is low.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declares that a public health emergency (PHE) specifically exists for Marburg virus disease, in a declaration made before January 1, 2025. The resolution source is HHS's [PHE Declarations page](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/default.aspx) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if there is such a PHE declaration that for some reason does not appear on that page. \n\nIf there is no such HHS declaration of a PHE for Marburg virus disease within the timeframe listed above, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29310, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730297830.039865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.095 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730297830.039865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.095 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.905, 0.095 ], "means": [ 0.15391873272067982 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.38552603931517593, 0.41342323019903293, 1.8040859634887014, 0.6170669846819123, 0.36498899214621716, 0.9315210264827767, 0.6403200895653883, 0.05344349486031787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3982157860847575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0496615260158035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.34615049116566, "peer_score": 4.179111347079886, "coverage": 0.9920191208576715, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9920191208576715, "spot_peer_score": 3.054673729857858, "spot_baseline_score": 85.59896973084807, "baseline_archived_score": 89.34615049116566, "peer_archived_score": 4.179111347079886, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.054673729857858, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 85.59896973084807 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to CDC, \"The Republic of Rwanda has confirmed several cases of Marburg virus disease (Marburg) in hospitals around the country, including some deaths. This is the country's first Marburg virus outbreak.\nMarburg is a rare but severe hemorrhagic fever, similar to Ebola, that can cause serious illness and death.\nCurrently, there are no cases of Marburg in the United States and the risk of infection with this virus in the United States is low.\"" }, { "id": 29309, "title": "Will a woman be named the Time Person of the Year for 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-woman-be-named-the-time-person-of-the-year-for-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.658291Z", "published_at": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.637919Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T14:28:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29200, "title": "Will a woman be named the Time Person of the Year for 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-29T12:48:39.658291Z", "open_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T14:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-12T14:28:52.225978Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [Time Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a woman is named as the sole Person of the Year by Time. If Time names more than one individual, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "For example, when Kamala Harris was named Person of the Year with Joe Biden in 2020, it would not have counted, since this question requires a woman to be the sole winner.", "post_id": 29309, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730297838.119234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41666666666666663 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730297838.119234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41666666666666663 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.32534716244029227 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26491928567729095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5594539150498965, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.9590319416719659, 0.0, 1.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.6665516853794153, 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29187, "title": "Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2024-10-29T10:22:42.056875Z", "open_time": "2024-11-02T17:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-06T17:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-06T17:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:21:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:21:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Boeing file for bankruptcy?\n\nIn recent years, [Boeing has faced significant challenges](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/20/1239132703/boeing-timeline-737-max-9-controversy-door-plug) that have raised questions about its financial stability. The aerospace giant, once a symbol of American innovation and a major player in both commercial and defense aviation, has [struggled to recover from a series of setbacks](https://www.tipranks.com/news/boeings-latest-strike-setback-may-cost-the-company-billions). The 737 MAX crisis, which involved two fatal crashes and the global grounding of the aircraft, severely damaged Boeing’s reputation and led to billions of dollars in losses. On top of that, the [COVID-19 pandemic decimated the aviation industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-infrastructure/our-insights/taking-stock-of-the-pandemics-impact-on-global-aviation), causing a sharp decline in demand for new planes and further straining the company's finances.\n\nWhile Boeing has worked to address these issues, including returning the 737 MAX to service and resuming deliveries of its other aircraft, it continues to face significant hurdles. Supply chain disruptions, rising production costs, and delayed deliveries have exacerbated the company's financial pressures. In 2023, [Boeing reported mounting debt, though the company remains optimistic about the future](https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2023/Boeing-Forecasts-Resiliency-and-Increased-Growth-for-Aircraft-Finance/default.aspx), with increased defense contracts and a recovery in air travel demand. Most recently, the company has [faced ongoing strikes that began September 2024 over pay and pensions](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-braces-union-vote-wage-deal-that-could-end-costly-strike-2024-10-23/), with [experts estimating the action to have so far cost the company nearly $5 billion](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/13/business/boeing-strike-one-month-five-billion-dollars/index.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, Boeing files for Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy, or otherwise makes a formal legal filing to initiate liquidation proceedings.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29290, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757396914.198528, "end_time": 1759281060.997, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757396914.198528, "end_time": 1759281060.997, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0520800449886658 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.6939093879171025, 0.5092980240074194, 0.42495778731929834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Boeing file for bankruptcy?\n\nIn recent years, [Boeing has faced significant challenges](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/20/1239132703/boeing-timeline-737-max-9-controversy-door-plug) that have raised questions about its financial stability. The aerospace giant, once a symbol of American innovation and a major player in both commercial and defense aviation, has [struggled to recover from a series of setbacks](https://www.tipranks.com/news/boeings-latest-strike-setback-may-cost-the-company-billions). The 737 MAX crisis, which involved two fatal crashes and the global grounding of the aircraft, severely damaged Boeing’s reputation and led to billions of dollars in losses. On top of that, the [COVID-19 pandemic decimated the aviation industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-infrastructure/our-insights/taking-stock-of-the-pandemics-impact-on-global-aviation), causing a sharp decline in demand for new planes and further straining the company's finances.\n\nWhile Boeing has worked to address these issues, including returning the 737 MAX to service and resuming deliveries of its other aircraft, it continues to face significant hurdles. Supply chain disruptions, rising production costs, and delayed deliveries have exacerbated the company's financial pressures. In 2023, [Boeing reported mounting debt, though the company remains optimistic about the future](https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2023/Boeing-Forecasts-Resiliency-and-Increased-Growth-for-Aircraft-Finance/default.aspx), with increased defense contracts and a recovery in air travel demand. Most recently, the company has [faced ongoing strikes that began September 2024 over pay and pensions](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-braces-union-vote-wage-deal-that-could-end-costly-strike-2024-10-23/), with [experts estimating the action to have so far cost the company nearly $5 billion](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/13/business/boeing-strike-one-month-five-billion-dollars/index.html)." }, { "id": 29284, "title": "Will Cristiano Ronaldo play again for Manchester United?", "short_title": "CR7 back to United?", "url_title": "CR7 back to United?", "slug": "cr7-back-to-united", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:22:51.292702Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T18:10:48.147634Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.395373Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-06T18:10:48.147632Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-07T18:10:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 29184, "title": "Will Cristiano Ronaldo play again for Manchester United?", "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:22:51.292778Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T18:10:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-11T18:10:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-11T18:10:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Cristiano Ronaldo's second stint with Manchester United ended in 2022 after [conflicts with Erik ten Hag](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/41231924/man-utd-ten-hag-hits-back-cristiano-ronaldo-criticism) who did not seem him as an important piece of his team. Ronaldo has since moved to play in Saudi Arabia, but was part of [rumors considering him returning to the Premier League](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10077940-cristiano-ronaldo-will-return-to-al-nassr-despite-newcastle-rumors-i-am-happy-here) for another club since he was still good enough to play in Europe.\n\n[Ten Hag’s Oct 2024 firing](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/41528230/manchester-united-sack-erik-ten-hag-amid-poor-run-form) because of mediocre results has seen him replaced by [Ruben Amorim](https://www.nbcnews.com/sports/soccer/manchester-united-ruben-amorim-rcna178370), a portuguese coach. This may open the door for a return of Cristiano Ronaldo.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Cristiano Ronaldo signs a professional player contract with Manchester United before his retirement. He must be officially registered with the club and included on a squad list for any league or cup competition, as long as it is an official match.\n\nIf Cristiano Ronaldo retires or dies before this happens, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "An official announcement of Cristiano Ronaldo's retirement will resolve this question as **No** even if later Ronaldo \"unretires\".", "post_id": 29284, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755554077.884567, "end_time": 1763651006.119513, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755554077.884567, "end_time": 1763651006.119513, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.1949144098591685 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.8848255354061108, 1.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cristiano Ronaldo's second stint with Manchester United ended in 2022 after [conflicts with Erik ten Hag](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/41231924/man-utd-ten-hag-hits-back-cristiano-ronaldo-criticism) who did not seem him as an important piece of his team. Ronaldo has since moved to play in Saudi Arabia, but was part of [rumors considering him returning to the Premier League](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10077940-cristiano-ronaldo-will-return-to-al-nassr-despite-newcastle-rumors-i-am-happy-here) for another club since he was still good enough to play in Europe.\n\n[Ten Hag’s Oct 2024 firing](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/41528230/manchester-united-sack-erik-ten-hag-amid-poor-run-form) because of mediocre results has seen him replaced by [Ruben Amorim](https://www.nbcnews.com/sports/soccer/manchester-united-ruben-amorim-rcna178370), a portuguese coach. This may open the door for a return of Cristiano Ronaldo." }, { "id": 29277, "title": "Will country music singer/songwriter Riley Green endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-country-music-singersongwriter-riley-green-endorse-donald-trump-in-the-2024-election-before-november-5-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:12.210187Z", "published_at": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.180338Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 100, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T13:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29177, "title": "Will country music singer/songwriter Riley Green endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:12.210187Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T13:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-08T13:11:10.966501Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Riley Green is notable for being a conservative musician according to articles such as [this](https://www.hollywoodintoto.com/conservative-musicians-worth-a-listen/), though he has not made any endorsements in 2024. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if musician Riley Green endorses Donald Trump, according to the Wikipedia page [List of Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign endorsements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_2024_presidential_campaign_endorsements) or credible sources in case of other reporting that is not yet reflected on the Wikipedia page. If there is no such public endorsement, this question resolves as **No**. 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race?", "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.914841Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T12:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-17T12:58:30.815818Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, 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Incumbent Brandon Scott was first elected in 2020 with 70.5% of the vote and is running for re-election to a second term.[1] Scott was considered vulnerable, as polls found that Baltimore residents were split on his performance as mayor.[2] He faced criticism for his handling of important issues in the city, including schools, constituent services, and crime.[3] However, Scott's response to the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse, as well as his progress in growing the economy and reducing homicides, allowed him to make inroads with voters and boost his approval rating.[4][5] Scott defeated former mayor Sheila Dixon in the Democratic primary, a result that is considered tantamount to victory in the heavily Democratic city.[6] His path to victory involved running up massive margins in Baltimore's majority-white precincts while running close to Dixon in its majority-Black areas.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Brandon Scott receives greater than or equal to 70.00% of the vote in the 2024 Baltimore mayoral election. 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Incumbent Brandon Scott was first elected in 2020 with 70.5% of the vote and is running for re-election to a second term.[1] Scott was considered vulnerable, as polls found that Baltimore residents were split on his performance as mayor.[2] He faced criticism for his handling of important issues in the city, including schools, constituent services, and crime.[3] However, Scott's response to the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse, as well as his progress in growing the economy and reducing homicides, allowed him to make inroads with voters and boost his approval rating.[4][5] Scott defeated former mayor Sheila Dixon in the Democratic primary, a result that is considered tantamount to victory in the heavily Democratic city.[6] His path to victory involved running up massive margins in Baltimore's majority-white precincts while running close to Dixon in its majority-Black areas.\"" }, { "id": 29273, "title": "Will Democratic Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo be re-elected in Colorado's 8th Congressional District in the 2024 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-democratic-congresswoman-yadira-caraveo-be-re-elected-in-colorados-8th-congressional-district-in-the-2024-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.910675Z", "published_at": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.081084Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-13T19:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29173, "title": "Will Democratic Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo be re-elected in Colorado's 8th Congressional District in the 2024 election?", "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.910675Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-13T19:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T19:43:23.165666Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Colorado's 8th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_8th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Yadira Caraveo wins the election to the House of Representatives from Colorado's 8th Congressional District in the 2024 US general election. If any other candidate wins, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.", "post_id": 29273, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730211940.227588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730211940.227588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5417335928795911 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.6447747757508819, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.5976372721385812, 1.846330575255651, 0.08540235291794414, 0.49860430081915785, 1.5719910238977157, 0.5043838486827957, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6799376828079502, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -14.90128636748398, "peer_score": 1.2982436512363043, "coverage": 0.984940315242167, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.984940315242167, "spot_peer_score": 2.523234234977085, "spot_baseline_score": -12.029423371771195, "baseline_archived_score": -14.90128636748398, "peer_archived_score": 1.2982436512363043, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.523234234977085, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -12.029423371771195 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Colorado's 8th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_8th_Congressional_District). 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"cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-31T16:37:25Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-31T16:37:54.687440Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of September 26, 2024, there was only one bank on the Failed Bank List: Republic First Bank dba Republic Bank", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, there is more than one bank on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's [Failed Bank List](https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list) with a Closing Date in 2024. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 29267, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730212103.177189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5249999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9590000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730212103.177189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5249999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9590000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7034007735040908 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"description": "As of September 26, 2024, there was only one bank on the Failed Bank List: Republic First Bank dba Republic Bank" }, { "id": 29266, "title": "Will Revolut officially announce it is launching a stablecoin, before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-revolut-officially-announce-it-is-launching-a-stablecoin-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.281723Z", "published_at": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.102327Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T20:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29166, "title": "Will Revolut officially announce it is launching a stablecoin, before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.281723Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T20:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T22:30:05.960382Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Bloomberg](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-revolut-explore-joining-170-170622285.html), \"Companies from Robinhood Markets Inc. to Revolut Ltd. are considering launching stablecoins, betting that stricter regulations in Europe and elsewhere will finally loosen Tether Holdings Ltd.’s grip on the rapidly expanding $170 billion digital-asset sector.... A Revolut spokesperson said the company plans to “further grow” its crypto product suite, without confirming a future stablecoin.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Revolut Ltd announces at its News & Media site, which can be accessed through [this link](https://www.revolut.com/news/), that it is launching its own stablecoin. If there is no such announcement posted at that link before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Revolut's news page will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. 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A Revolut spokesperson said the company plans to “further grow” its crypto product suite, without confirming a future stablecoin.\"" }, { "id": 29265, "title": "Will CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2025, be \"Low\"?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-cdcs-highest-assessment-of-the-risk-posed-by-h5-bird-flu-to-the-us-general-public-before-january-1-2025-be-low", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.277154Z", "published_at": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.192100Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 91, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29165, "title": "Will CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2025, be \"Low\"?", "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.277154Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:08:29.835116Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In evolving situations, subject-matter experts at CDC sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/index.html) to the general public of the United States. Normally this is done by CDC's [Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics](https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/index.html) (CFA), although it is unclear at the time of this question whether CFA has made such an analysis with respect to H5. CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into account both the likelihood and impact of infections, ranging from \"Extremely Low\" to \"Very High.\" As of CDC’s most recent [situation summary](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html), dated October 18, 2024: \n\n>While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures.\n\n>Current public health risk: Low\n\nBelow are the [specific definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) used by the CFA to assess likelihood and impact of infections. These are provided for reference. Not only is it unclear whether CFA is specifically going to be the team within CDC doing the risk assessment with H5, but CDC may change these definitions, and this question asks about overall risk and not sub-categories of risk.\n\n>### Definitions\n\n> #### Likelihood of infection definitions\n\n> * **Extremely low:** An extremely small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect an extremely low prevalence of infection in the population, far less than 1% of the population.\n\n> * **Very low:** A very small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect a very low prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **Low:** There are limited opportunities for exposure for most of the population, but exposure may be high in some areas or subgroups. The pathogen has at least moderate infectiousness or significant gaps in population immunity. We expect a low prevalence of infection in the population, potentially with pockets of higher prevalence.\n\n> * **Moderate:** Many people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has moderate to high infectiousness, or the population has low levels of immunity. We expect a moderate prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **High:** Most people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has high infectiousness, or the population has very low immunity. We expect a high prevalence of infection in the population, with most of the population affected.\n\n> * **Very high:** The vast majority of the population is likely to be exposed, the pathogen has very high infectiousness, or the population has extremely low immunity. We expect a very high prevalence of infection in the population, with the vast majority of the population affected.\n\n> #### Impact of infection definitions\n\n> * **Very low:** The pathogen is very unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is very unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Low:** The pathogen is unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Moderate:** The pathogen causes severe disease for a substantial proportion of this population or pockets within this population, there is limited population immunity protecting people from severe disease, and/or effective treatments are not widely available or accessible. The disease may cause significant disruption to the population and require significant public health resources.\n\n> * **High:** The pathogen typically causes severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are very limited or difficult to access. The disease could cause extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a large amount of public health resources.\n\n> * **Very high:** The pathogen typically causes very severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or there are no effective treatments. The disease could cause prolonged and extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a very high level of public health resources.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the highest level of current public health risk to the general population of the United States assessed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) before January 1, 2025, at its [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) tracker or at a similar page at its website, is **Low**.", "fine_print": "The question resolves based on the overall public health risk level stated by the CDC for the United States. Sub-categories of risk (if any) are not considered for resolution. For example, the CDC offering a community level risk assessment of Moderate would not count, nor would sub-categories such as likelihood and impact listed [here](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's level of confidence is irrelevant; if CDC assesses \"Very High\" risk with low confidence, the question resolves as *High (or above, such as Very High)*. \n\nThe question will not resolve based on statements from CDC officials. A written document posted at cdc.gov is necessary.\n\nAlthough this question assumes CDC will use risk categories for H5 according to the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics' [Qualitative Risk Assessments](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) (last updated August 5, 2024), if CDC introduces new risk categories for H5 than the ones listed, Metaculus will resolve the question based on the closest equivalent, according to a [panel](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#rescouncil) of Admins.\n\nThis question asks for the highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public. Therefore in cases in which the CDC offers a range, the question resolves as the high part of the range. For example if a current public health risk of \"Low to Moderate\" is given, this question resolves as **Moderate**.", "post_id": 29265, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730212156.017785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8083333333333332 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8525 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730212156.017785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8083333333333332 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8525 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19166666666666676, 0.8083333333333332 ], "means": [ 0.7765984840348985 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.6796124580803228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6457584412862378, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.7502135707587743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 2.5179779093251944, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 1.0493889701831325, 0.0, 0.7015521434649932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 72.03547766708728, "peer_score": -0.31521146363941405, "coverage": 0.9822875647577974, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9822875647577974, "spot_peer_score": 0.2570118118455535, "spot_baseline_score": 69.30222465786089, "baseline_archived_score": 72.03547766708728, "peer_archived_score": -0.31521146363941405, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.2570118118455535, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 69.30222465786089 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In evolving situations, subject-matter experts at CDC sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/index.html) to the general public of the United States. Normally this is done by CDC's [Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics](https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/index.html) (CFA), although it is unclear at the time of this question whether CFA has made such an analysis with respect to H5. CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into account both the likelihood and impact of infections, ranging from \"Extremely Low\" to \"Very High.\" As of CDC’s most recent [situation summary](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html), dated October 18, 2024: \n\n>While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures.\n\n>Current public health risk: Low\n\nBelow are the [specific definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) used by the CFA to assess likelihood and impact of infections. These are provided for reference. Not only is it unclear whether CFA is specifically going to be the team within CDC doing the risk assessment with H5, but CDC may change these definitions, and this question asks about overall risk and not sub-categories of risk.\n\n>### Definitions\n\n> #### Likelihood of infection definitions\n\n> * **Extremely low:** An extremely small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect an extremely low prevalence of infection in the population, far less than 1% of the population.\n\n> * **Very low:** A very small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect a very low prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **Low:** There are limited opportunities for exposure for most of the population, but exposure may be high in some areas or subgroups. The pathogen has at least moderate infectiousness or significant gaps in population immunity. We expect a low prevalence of infection in the population, potentially with pockets of higher prevalence.\n\n> * **Moderate:** Many people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has moderate to high infectiousness, or the population has low levels of immunity. We expect a moderate prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **High:** Most people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has high infectiousness, or the population has very low immunity. We expect a high prevalence of infection in the population, with most of the population affected.\n\n> * **Very high:** The vast majority of the population is likely to be exposed, the pathogen has very high infectiousness, or the population has extremely low immunity. We expect a very high prevalence of infection in the population, with the vast majority of the population affected.\n\n> #### Impact of infection definitions\n\n> * **Very low:** The pathogen is very unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is very unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Low:** The pathogen is unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Moderate:** The pathogen causes severe disease for a substantial proportion of this population or pockets within this population, there is limited population immunity protecting people from severe disease, and/or effective treatments are not widely available or accessible. The disease may cause significant disruption to the population and require significant public health resources.\n\n> * **High:** The pathogen typically causes severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are very limited or difficult to access. The disease could cause extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a large amount of public health resources.\n\n> * **Very high:** The pathogen typically causes very severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or there are no effective treatments. The disease could cause prolonged and extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a very high level of public health resources." } ] }
