Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1900
{ "count": 6329, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1920", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1880", "results": [ { "id": 30739, "title": "Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-november-2024-have-a-global-temperature-increase-of-greater-than-or-equal-to-125-degrees-and-less-than-or-equal-to-131-degrees", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.009103Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.053281Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T19:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30500, "title": "Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:12.009103Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T19:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T19:57:28.042095Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), \"The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Global Land and Ocean Average Temperature Anomaly for November 2024 is greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees according to NOAA at [this page](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series). Region is \"Global\" and surface is \"Land and Ocean.\"", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30739, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733408657.658539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733408657.658539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.2684871063546744 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 1.2951988981837126, 0.06898336077310675, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.366226455654769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 1.108670033436014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.13225558387246503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1259787024282699, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17312641757353447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.1700528108095, "peer_score": 19.94799659716253, "coverage": 0.9945957277080526, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9945957277080526, "spot_peer_score": 23.53214011697075, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "baseline_archived_score": 58.1700528108095, "peer_archived_score": 19.94799659716253, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.53214011697075, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), \"The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.\"" }, { "id": 30738, "title": "Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of <1.25 degrees?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-november-2024-have-a-global-temperature-increase-of-125-degrees", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:11.995938Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.120152Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T19:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30499, "title": "Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of <1.25 degrees?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:11.995938Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T19:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T19:57:11.483430Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), \"The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Global Land and Ocean Average Temperature Anomaly for November 2024 is less than 1.25 degrees according to NOAA at [this page](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series). Region is \"Global\" and surface is \"Land and Ocean.\"", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30738, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733408671.550644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19333333333333336 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733408671.550644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19333333333333336 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1988384201039926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 1.931730093971976, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0416033424703754, 0.10527918291777463, 0.13238986393323063, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 1.4261783758560158, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.07670684254184146, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 78.35037946916943, "peer_score": 20.588767610625546, "coverage": 0.9937536235760759, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9937536235760759, "spot_peer_score": 17.286903683652532, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 78.35037946916943, "peer_archived_score": 20.588767610625546, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.286903683652532, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), \"The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.\"" }, { "id": 30737, "title": "Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of >1.31 degrees?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-november-2024-have-a-global-temperature-increase-of-131-degrees", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:11.982913Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.843912Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T19:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30498, "title": "Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of >1.31 degrees?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:11.982913Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T19:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T19:56:54.743122Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), \"The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Global Land and Ocean Average Temperature Anomaly for November 2024 is greater than 1.31 degrees according to NOAA at [this page](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series). Region is \"Global\" and surface is \"Land and Ocean.\"", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. 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A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.\"" }, { "id": 30736, "title": "Will Daniel Penny be convicted in connection with the death of Jordan Neely before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-daniel-penny-be-convicted-in-connection-with-the-death-of-jordan-neely-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:11.969472Z", "published_at": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.432940Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30497, "title": "Will Daniel Penny be convicted in connection with the death of Jordan Neely before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T14:21:11.969472Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:42:52.811692Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [Killing of Jordan Neely](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Jordan_Neely) | [Update: People v. 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For purposes of this question, we define \"arrest\" using the definition [posted at Nolo](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/justifies-arrest-probable-cause.html): \"An arrest requires taking someone into custody, against that person's will, in order to prosecute or interrogate. It involves a physical application of force, or submission to an officer's show of force. In sum, the arrestee must not be free to leave. Whether the act by the police is termed an arrest under state law is not relevant. When deciding whether someone has been arrested, courts apply the 'reasonable man' standard. 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false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-president-yoon-declares-martial-law-2024-12-03/):\n> In South Korea's biggest political crisis in decades, Yoon shocked the nation and declared martial law on Tuesday night to thwart \"anti-state forces\" among his domestic political opponents. But outraged lawmakers unanimously rejected the decree. Yonhap news agency said the cabinet had agreed early on Wednesday to scrap the martial law.\nProtesters outside the National Assembly parliament shouted and clapped. “We won!” they chanted, and one demonstrator banged on a drum.\n> \n> The main opposition Democratic Party called for Yoon, who has been in office since 2022, to resign or face impeachment. “Even if martial law is lifted, he cannot avoid treason charges. It was clearly revealed to the entire nation that President Yoon could no longer run the country normally. He should step down,\" senior DP member of parliament Park Chan-dae said in a statement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Yoon Suk Yeol is President of the Republic of Korea (also known as South Korea) on December 31, 2024.", "fine_print": "Regardless of the circumstances, if Yoon Suk Yeol holds the office of President of the Republic of Korea on December 31, 2024, this question resolves as **Yes**.", "post_id": 30711, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735586885.359037, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735586885.359037, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.993926698267177 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0043656808081595075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00032889645943876195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018890079689041174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021735444886810887, 0.0007481454443624551, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000926134218651555, 0.014229338886583794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025545491804088117, 0.000590830648692911, 0.00135283348636685, 0.0033717487736429743, 0.0, 0.0038449380582231333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11603409104006096, 0.0, 0.017039794786462566, 0.00160604421603861, 0.059001144013551526, 2.2340476201230413, 14.910330274479865 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.94709181860073, "peer_score": 20.25256432738058, "coverage": 0.9999397088861386, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999397088861386, "spot_peer_score": 24.636208208696385, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 82.94709181860073, "peer_archived_score": 20.25256432738058, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.636208208696385, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 496, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-president-yoon-declares-martial-law-2024-12-03/):\n> In South Korea's biggest political crisis in decades, Yoon shocked the nation and declared martial law on Tuesday night to thwart \"anti-state forces\" among his domestic political opponents. 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He should step down,\" senior DP member of parliament Park Chan-dae said in a statement." }, { "id": 30708, "title": "Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "New French PM before Jan 1, 2025?", "url_title": "New French PM before Jan 1, 2025?", "slug": "new-french-pm-before-jan-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T02:19:48.042785Z", "published_at": "2024-12-05T06:11:47.933275Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.200362Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-05T06:11:47.933272Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-13T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30474, "title": "Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T02:19:48.043275Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T18:47:37.148949Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-13T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):\r\n> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion\r\n\r\n[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/):\r\n> French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday [December 4] on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy.\r\n> Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that a new French Prime Minister has been appointed.", "fine_print": "- A potential vote of no confidence on the new PM will not affect resolution.\r\n- A caretaker PM will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 30708, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734101183.298425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734101183.298425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9472301871357885 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5241535779871288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7307110144917024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8336194404758834 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.003576288835056, "peer_score": 11.608380204181135, "coverage": 0.2340707149012213, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8864025908702478, "spot_peer_score": 63.586376158439194, "baseline_archived_score": 18.003576288835056, "peer_archived_score": 11.608380204181135, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 63.586376158439194 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):\r\n> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion\r\n\r\n[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/):\r\n> French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday [December 4] on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy.\r\n> Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit." }, { "id": 30705, "title": "Will Elon Musk have quadruple the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2030?", "short_title": "Will Musk 4X or more wealth of 2nd richest person by 2030?", "url_title": "Will Musk 4X or more wealth of 2nd richest person by 2030?", "slug": "will-musk-4x-or-more-wealth-of-2nd-richest-person-by-2030", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T01:51:15.028812Z", "published_at": "2024-12-18T01:50:48.217041Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T00:15:16.623537Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-18T01:50:48.217039Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-19T01:50:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30460, "title": "Will Elon Musk have quadruple the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T01:51:15.029154Z", "open_time": "2024-12-19T01:50:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-23T01:50:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-23T01:50:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-15T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of Dec 2, 2024 Net Worth of the five richest\nElon Musk $353B\nJeff Bezos $231B\nMark Zuckerberg $210B\nLarry Ellison $198B\nBernard Arnault $171B\n\nIt is rare for the richest person or richest family to quadruple the wealth of the next richest. Nelson Rockefeller likely had times where he was 3 to 4 times richer then the next richest person in some years. Bill Gates only tripled the wealth of the next richest\n[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\\_World%27s\\_Billionaires#2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elon Musk's net worth is quadruple or more than the second richest person in the world at any time after December 31, 2024 and before January 1, 2030, according to [Bloomberg's Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).", "fine_print": "If the Bloomberg Billionaire Index stops being available, another credible source may be used at Metaculus' discretion.", "post_id": 30705, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762992906.375556, "end_time": 1763573317.212283, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.044 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762992906.375556, "end_time": 1763573317.212283, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.044 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.20850389213052342 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3148965317832342, 0.6426729885079873, 0.8191351853384683, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 2.025243892873522, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of Dec 2, 2024 Net Worth of the five richest\nElon Musk $353B\nJeff Bezos $231B\nMark Zuckerberg $210B\nLarry Ellison $198B\nBernard Arnault $171B\n\nIt is rare for the richest person or richest family to quadruple the wealth of the next richest. Nelson Rockefeller likely had times where he was 3 to 4 times richer then the next richest person in some years. Bill Gates only tripled the wealth of the next richest\n[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\\_World%27s\\_Billionaires#2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001)" }, { "id": 30704, "title": "Will Elon Musk have triple the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2028?", "short_title": "Will Musk triple wealth of the 2nd richest person by 2028?", "url_title": "Will Musk triple wealth of the 2nd richest person by 2028?", "slug": "will-musk-triple-wealth-of-the-2nd-richest-person-by-2028", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-04T01:47:48.877206Z", "published_at": "2024-12-12T14:14:49.573699Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T04:28:37.629835Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-12T14:14:49.573696Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-14T14:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30459, "title": "Will Elon Musk have triple the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2028?", "created_at": "2024-12-04T01:47:48.877555Z", "open_time": "2024-12-14T14:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-17T14:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-17T14:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of Dec 2, 2024 Net Worth of the five richest\nElon Musk $353B\nJeff Bezos $231B\nMark Zuckerberg $210B\nLarry Ellison $198B\nBernard Arnault $171B\n\nIt is rare for the richest person or richest family to triple wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates did it briefly in 1999 and Rockefeller did it.\n[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\\_World%27s\\_Billionaires#2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001)\n\nNelson Rockefeller likely had times where he was 3 to 4 times richer then the next richest person in some years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elon Musk's net worth is equal to at least triple the next worth of the second richest person in the world at any time between after December 12, 2024 and before January 1, 2028, according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).", "fine_print": "If the Bloomberg Billionaire Index stops being available, another credible source may be used at Metaculus' discretion.", "post_id": 30704, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763008106.82071, "end_time": 1763653784.457, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763008106.82071, "end_time": 1763653784.457, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.2039113472030626 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6759008034148746, 0.970984788109069, 1.3823424908212236, 0.0, 1.0067914178978077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of Dec 2, 2024 Net Worth of the five richest\nElon Musk $353B\nJeff Bezos $231B\nMark Zuckerberg $210B\nLarry Ellison $198B\nBernard Arnault $171B\n\nIt is rare for the richest person or richest family to triple wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates did it briefly in 1999 and Rockefeller did it.\n[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\\_World%27s\\_Billionaires#2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001)\n\nNelson Rockefeller likely had times where he was 3 to 4 times richer then the next richest person in some years." }, { "id": 30690, "title": "Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-bushra-bibi-be-arrested-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T19:22:09.488432Z", "published_at": "2024-12-05T06:19:41.129137Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.395419Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-05T06:19:41.129134Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30457, "title": "Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T19:22:09.488804Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T22:21:21.720727Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bushra Bibi is the wife of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Mr. Khan was ousted through a no-confidence vote in Parliament in April 2022 and sentenced to three years in a £190 million graft case. He was later found guilty of revealing official secrets and sentenced to a further 10 years in prison. In November 2024, Bushra Bibi led protests for the release of her husband. Bibi herself has been involved in the graft case and on November 22, a court issued a non-bailable warrant for her arrest as she failed to appear in eight court hearings. On November 23, the police attempted to arrest her, but they were unsuccessful as she was not present at her residence.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Bushra Bibi, the wife of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, is arrested before January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "In order to streamline this question's resolution, please note that an arrest anywhere in the world, for any reason, will resolve this question as Yes. For purposes of this question, we define \"arrest\" using the definition [posted at Nolo](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/justifies-arrest-probable-cause.html): \"An arrest requires taking someone into custody, against that person's will, in order to prosecute or interrogate. It involves a physical application of force, or submission to an officer's show of force. In sum, the arrestee must not be free to leave. Whether the act by the police is termed an arrest under state law is not relevant. When deciding whether someone has been arrested, courts apply the 'reasonable man' standard. This means asking whether a reasonable person, in the shoes of the defendant, would have concluded that he or she was not free to leave.\"", "post_id": 30690, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735633514.157618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735633514.157618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.013995698164478322 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.104639181454335, 2.044508244300708, 0.25107642863754664, 0.4817346416537838, 0.7535956555594016, 0.0, 0.03550367010089748, 0.10957976461626417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012491892736397447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01040622348426393, 0.0, 0.014830008481343462, 0.0, 0.008551805847127919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004173285167582051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08040436677867299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 33.3198591582376, "peer_score": 17.31828474404753, "coverage": 0.9999361184003738, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999361184003738, "spot_peer_score": -8.177649855565832, "spot_baseline_score": -59.94620704162715, "baseline_archived_score": 33.3198591582376, "peer_archived_score": 17.31828474404753, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.177649855565832, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -59.94620704162715 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 327, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bushra Bibi is the wife of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Mr. Khan was ousted through a no-confidence vote in Parliament in April 2022 and sentenced to three years in a £190 million graft case. He was later found guilty of revealing official secrets and sentenced to a further 10 years in prison. In November 2024, Bushra Bibi led protests for the release of her husband. Bibi herself has been involved in the graft case and on November 22, a court issued a non-bailable warrant for her arrest as she failed to appear in eight court hearings. On November 23, the police attempted to arrest her, but they were unsuccessful as she was not present at her residence." }, { "id": 30681, "title": "Will Candy Meehan survive the recall vote in Norwood, Colorado, scheduled for December 10, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-candy-meehan-survive-the-recall-vote-in-norwood-colorado-scheduled-for-december-10-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:03.133964Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.593011Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T13:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30447, "title": "Will Candy Meehan survive the recall vote in Norwood, Colorado, scheduled for December 10, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:03.133964Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T13:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T13:34:15.423923Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Candy Meehan recall, Norwood, Colorado (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Candy_Meehan_recall,_Norwood,_Colorado_(2024))", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Mayor Candy Meehan wins the recall vote scheduled for December 10, 2024, in Norwood CO.", "fine_print": "The question resolves based on election results known before January 1, 2025. In the event of presumably rare edge cases such as the ballot being postponed or cancelled, the count taking too long to declare a winner, or the individual resigning before the vote takes place, this question wil be **annulled** if there is no answer before January 1, 2025. 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To access the status page, go [here](https://icis.corp.delaware.gov/ecorp/entitysearch/NameSearch.aspx) and do a search for file number 5902936. If it shows \"Entity Type: Exempt\" then this question resolves as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "The specific link to the website of the resolution source is provided for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that will be used for resolution. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled** if it still cannot be accessed.", "post_id": 30680, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325202.171152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325202.171152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.3090767070832355 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2925310191842163, 0.5673981855945806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 2.3835377488474716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2715589792897235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0157085394504055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0318772839950636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -155.32809513003363, "peer_score": -30.575825037523614, "coverage": 0.9966244617132126, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9966244617132126, "spot_peer_score": -39.935446165484265, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "baseline_archived_score": -155.32809513003363, "peer_archived_score": -30.575825037523614, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -39.935446165484265, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Exclusive: OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/)" }, { "id": 30679, "title": "Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥6 degrees F?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-average-daily-temperature-for-december-2024-recorded-by-the-barrowport-rogers-nws-weather-station-on-the-arctic-coast-of-alaska-exceed-the-1945-2023-average-for-december-by-6-degrees-f", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:03.090593Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.563961Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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Most prominently, snow and ice are melting at an increasing rate. This impacts both local ecosystems and the global climate system. It contributes to rising sea levels, and is likely to provoke extreme temperature events beyond the Arctic. The effects of a shifting Arctic climate are felt across the high latitudes and beyond – with global environmental, economic, and social implications.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers National Weather Service weather station in Alaska exceeds the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥6 degrees Fahrenheit. Specifically, it will be the figure for December 2024 under \"Average Daily Temperature (high+low)/2 [F]\" listed at [this webpage](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=PABR&network=AK_ASOS) by Iowa Environmental Mesonet.", "fine_print": "Please note that Iowa Environmental Mesonet is the only data provider that will be used for resolution. 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A higher percentage for \"Favorable\" means that this question will resolve as >0.", "fine_print": "If no value for December 27, 2024 has been published until January 7, 2025, the closest values will be used to resolve this question, provided that these are for any date after December 20, 2024 and before January 3, 2025.\r\n\r\nIn that case, the resolution will be calculated as follows: If there is one, unambiguous closest value (e.g., a value for December 26, 2024 is shown on the site but not one for December 28, 2024), the question will resolve as that. 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According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of cases reported by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's Pertussis Dashboard for both weeks 51 and 52, when they are posted is under 275.", "fine_print": "- Week 51 ends on December 20, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on December 25, 2024. Week 52 ends on December 27, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on January 1, 2025.\r\n- This question will resolve on the first day after January 1, 2025 that data for both weeks are shown on the dashboard. Potential data revisions will not change the resolution. If the relevant numbers are not available on the dashboard before January 7, 2025, Admins may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), as long as their numbers are consistent with the dashboard's numbers.", "post_id": 30673, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325206.696248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19621029150724983 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325206.696248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19621029150724983 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.400603082206492 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7640856351447469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8477007947377986, 0.3857521552669111, 0.0, 0.0, 1.754073296158142, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 1.033269365342204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2526371569213358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.870228961685969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7335144723884806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_score": -23.54881874968442, "peer_score": 33.712275864500604, "coverage": 0.9946282170133459, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9946282170133459, "spot_peer_score": -20.10815663352855, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -23.54881874968442, "peer_archived_score": 33.712275864500604, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -20.10815663352855 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November." }, { "id": 30672, "title": "Will New Zealand report greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-new-zealand-report-greater-than-or-equal-to-275-and-less-than-or-equal-to-375-whooping-cough-cases-for-weeks-51-and-52", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.634839Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.466246Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T10:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30438, "title": "Will New Zealand report greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.634839Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T10:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T10:25:31.520390Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of cases reported by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's Pertussis Dashboard for both weeks 51 and 52, when they are posted is greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 .", "fine_print": "- Week 51 ends on December 20, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on December 25, 2024. Week 52 ends on December 27, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on January 1, 2025.\r\n- This question will resolve on the first day after January 1, 2025 that data for both weeks are shown on the dashboard. Potential data revisions will not change the resolution. If the relevant numbers are not available on the dashboard before January 7, 2025, Admins may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), as long as their numbers are consistent with the dashboard's numbers.", "post_id": 30672, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325207.313889, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3495698590408122 ], "centers": [ 0.4666666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325207.313889, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3495698590408122 ], "centers": [ 0.4666666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5333333333333334, 0.4666666666666666 ], "means": [ 0.4844555437135269 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.14516866866426206, 1.20606295296282, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26913803645995354, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 1.0959553750398965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9964795882629178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 9.310940439148176, "baseline_score": 7.7407866862734656, "peer_score": 9.606767278693207, "coverage": 0.9944775637625545, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9944775637625545, "spot_peer_score": 10.435289904231508, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 9.310940439148176, "baseline_archived_score": 7.7407866862734656, "peer_archived_score": 9.606767278693207, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.435289904231508 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November." } ] }
