Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1900
{ "count": 5956, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1920", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1880", "results": [ { "id": 29264, "title": "Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-world-health-organization-designate-a-new-covid-19-variant-of-concern-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.269703Z", "published_at": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.485059Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29164, "title": "Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.269703Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:05:39.482178Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The WHO tracks SARS-CoV-2 variants using [three main classifications](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-variants-of-sars-cov-2): \r\n\r\nA **Variant Under Monitoring (VUM)** is, according to WHO, one that may require prioritized attention and monitoring. The main objective of this category is to investigate if this variant (and others closely related to it) may pose an additional threat to global public health as compared to other circulating variants.\" At the time of this question, there were two VUMs: BA.2.86 and JN.1.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Interest (VOI)** is a variant with changes that \"are known to affect how the virus behaves or its potential impact on human health. This can include, for example, its ability to spread, its ability to cause serious disease, or how easily it may be detected or treated.\" At the time of this question, there were 7 VOIs: JN.1.7 KP.2,\r\nKP.3, KP.3.1.1, JN.1.18, LB.1, and XEC.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Concern (VOC)** is, according to the [working definition](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) last updated March 15, 2023:\r\n\r\n>A SARS-CoV-2 variant that meets the definition of a VOI (see above) and, through a risk assessment, conducted by WHO TAG-VE, and determined to be associated with a moderate or high level of confidence, meets at least one of the following criteria when compared with other variants:\r\n>• Detrimental change in clinical disease severity; OR\r\n>• Change in COVID-19 epidemiology causing substantial impact on the ability of health systems to provide care to patients with COVID-19 or other illnesses and therefore requiring major public health interventions; OR\r\n>• Significant decrease in the effectiveness of available vaccines in protecting against severe\r\ndisease.\r\n\r\nAt the time of this question, there are no currently circulating WHO-designated VOCs. Previously circulating VOCs (see archive [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20221005140711/https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants)) are:\r\n\r\n| WHO label | Pango lineage | GISAID clade | Nextstrain clade | Additional amino acid changes monitored | Earliest documented samples | Date of designation |\r\n| --------- | ------------- | ------------ | ---------------- | --------------------------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------- |\r\n| **Alpha** | B.1.1.7 | GRY | 20I (V1) | | United Kingdom, Sep-2020 | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Beta** | B.1.351 | GH/501Y.V2 | 20H (V2) | | South Africa, May-2020 | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Gamma** | P.1 | GR/501Y.V3 | 20J (V3) | | Brazil, Nov-2020 | VOC: 11-Jan-2021 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Delta** | B.1.617.2 | G/478K.V1 | 21A, 21I, 21J | | India, Oct-2020 | VOI: 4-Apr-2021 (VOC: 11-May-2021) (Previous VOC: 7-Jun-2022) |\r\n| **Omicron** | B.1.1.529 | GR/484A | 21K, 21L, 21M, 22A, 22B, 22C, 22D | +S:R346K (+S:L452X) (+S:F486V) | Multiple countries, Nov-2021 | VUM: 24-Nov-2021 (VOC: 26-Nov-2021) |", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 21, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds a new SARS-CoV-2 variant to their list of Variants of Concern that was not previously identified as a VOC at any point, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the WHO's [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) tracker page or its [COVID-19 Variants Dashboard](https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/variants).\n\nIf this does not occur before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question will also resolve as Yes if \r\n\r\n- A new variant is classified using a new classification that is synonymous to the WHO's [working definition](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) last updated October 4, 2023, or \r\n- A new variant is clearly described as being a level above VOC or having properties in addition to the possible attributes of a VOC.", "post_id": 29264, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730212182.863084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730212182.863084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.26206514788842783 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 1.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.015708539450405595, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.26577008775178024, 0.1836394386094319, 1.0564410632662566, 0.7868332148914403, 0.3015863124192444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.865326963027923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.53458081028582, "peer_score": 40.94183598474107, "coverage": 0.9820810334825957, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9820810334825957, "spot_peer_score": 33.1692939198947, "spot_baseline_score": 73.11832415721999, "baseline_archived_score": 70.53458081028582, "peer_archived_score": 40.94183598474107, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.1692939198947, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 73.11832415721999 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The WHO tracks SARS-CoV-2 variants using [three main classifications](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-variants-of-sars-cov-2): \r\n\r\nA **Variant Under Monitoring (VUM)** is, according to WHO, one that may require prioritized attention and monitoring. The main objective of this category is to investigate if this variant (and others closely related to it) may pose an additional threat to global public health as compared to other circulating variants.\" At the time of this question, there were two VUMs: BA.2.86 and JN.1.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Interest (VOI)** is a variant with changes that \"are known to affect how the virus behaves or its potential impact on human health. This can include, for example, its ability to spread, its ability to cause serious disease, or how easily it may be detected or treated.\" At the time of this question, there were 7 VOIs: JN.1.7 KP.2,\r\nKP.3, KP.3.1.1, JN.1.18, LB.1, and XEC.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Concern (VOC)** is, according to the [working definition](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) last updated March 15, 2023:\r\n\r\n>A SARS-CoV-2 variant that meets the definition of a VOI (see above) and, through a risk assessment, conducted by WHO TAG-VE, and determined to be associated with a moderate or high level of confidence, meets at least one of the following criteria when compared with other variants:\r\n>• Detrimental change in clinical disease severity; OR\r\n>• Change in COVID-19 epidemiology causing substantial impact on the ability of health systems to provide care to patients with COVID-19 or other illnesses and therefore requiring major public health interventions; OR\r\n>• Significant decrease in the effectiveness of available vaccines in protecting against severe\r\ndisease.\r\n\r\nAt the time of this question, there are no currently circulating WHO-designated VOCs. Previously circulating VOCs (see archive [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20221005140711/https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants)) are:\r\n\r\n| WHO label | Pango lineage | GISAID clade | Nextstrain clade | Additional amino acid changes monitored | Earliest documented samples | Date of designation |\r\n| --------- | ------------- | ------------ | ---------------- | --------------------------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------- |\r\n| **Alpha** | B.1.1.7 | GRY | 20I (V1) | | United Kingdom, Sep-2020 | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Beta** | B.1.351 | GH/501Y.V2 | 20H (V2) | | South Africa, May-2020 | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Gamma** | P.1 | GR/501Y.V3 | 20J (V3) | | Brazil, Nov-2020 | VOC: 11-Jan-2021 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Delta** | B.1.617.2 | G/478K.V1 | 21A, 21I, 21J | | India, Oct-2020 | VOI: 4-Apr-2021 (VOC: 11-May-2021) (Previous VOC: 7-Jun-2022) |\r\n| **Omicron** | B.1.1.529 | GR/484A | 21K, 21L, 21M, 22A, 22B, 22C, 22D | +S:R346K (+S:L452X) (+S:F486V) | Multiple countries, Nov-2021 | VUM: 24-Nov-2021 (VOC: 26-Nov-2021) |" }, { "id": 29263, "title": "Will the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024, to January 4, 2025, be below 2.0?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-lowest-covid-19-hospitalization-rate-from-october-5-2024-to-january-4-2025-be-below-20", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.262190Z", "published_at": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.346470Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29163, "title": "Will the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024, to January 4, 2025, be below 2.0?", "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.262190Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:05:11.029925Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of the end of September 2024, the dominant COVID variant in the United States [was](https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/in-2-weeks-xec-jumps-from-5th-to-2nd-most-dominant-covid-variant.html) KP.3.1.1, with XEC having risen from 5th place to 2nd place in just two weeks. Nationally, wastewater detection of viral activity for COVID-19 was remained low, with the exception of Montana, Oregon, and 14 other states. The general trend since mid August was a decline in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Bill Hanage, epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/xec-covid-variant-contagious-will-updated-vaccines-work-rcna172921) on September 27, 2024, that there was no evidence yet that XEC was significantly more transmissable than previous variants.\r\n\r\nThe week ended September 28, 2024, had the lowest hospitalization rate of the corresponding week since the pandemic began. Those rates were:\r\n\r\n- September 26, 2020: 4.3 per 100,000 population\r\n- September 25, 2021: 9.9\r\n- October 1, 2022: 6.0\r\n- September 30, 2023: 4.6\r\n- September 28, 2024: 3.2\r\n\r\nThe monitoring and data sharing tool RESP-NET is [described](https://www.cdc.gov/resp-net/dashboard/index.html) by CDC as follows: \r\n\r\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) monitors laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with influenza, COVID-19, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) among children and adults.\r\n\r\nAt the moment its COVID-19 data comes from the COVID-NET interactive dashboard. According [to CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/covid/php/covid-net/index.html):\r\n\r\n>COVID-NET currently comprises 185 counties and county equivalents in the 13 states participating in the Respiratory Virus Surveillance Network. It covers more than 34 million people and includes an estimated 10% of the U.S. population. The COVID-NET surveillance area is generally similar to the U.S. population by demographics; however, COVID-NET data might not be generalizable to the entire country.\r\n\r\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy/about_data).\r\n\r\nCDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics updated its [2024-2025 Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/season-outlook24-25/index.html) on August 29, 2024. With moderate confidence, CDC projected a peak hospitalization rate similar to or lower than last year's. CDC assumes that new variants this winter will be similar to last winter and that vaccines will have similar performance and usage. With COVID hospitalizations continuing to decline at the time of this question, insights on what the *lowest* hospitalization rate for COVID might be in the fourth quarter of 2024 could support CDC's modeling assumptions and help with predicting the trajectory.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the lowest weekly rate of hospital admissions per 100,000 people for COVID-19 between the weeks ending October 5, 2024, and January 4, 2025, (inclusive) is below 2.0, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/resp-net/dashboard/). The CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters.\n\nTo allow for data revisions and reporting delays, the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the figure for January 4, 2025, is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week’s end date.", "fine_print": "* The following filters will be selected:\r\n\r\n * **Chart Selection:** \"Season\"\r\n * **View:** \"Weekly Rates\"\r\n * **Season:** \"2024-25\" (or whichever selections will encompass the dates in question)\r\n * **Pathogen:** \"COVID-19\" (Note that you can also filter to show Flu, RSV, and Combined. Regardless, only the value corresponding to the listed pathogen will be used.)\r\n* This question is asking about the minimum weekly rate, the lowest value reached during the specified period.\r\n* In the event the data reporting is missing for more than two of the weeks included in the period when the question is expected to resolve, the backup resolution source will be [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/covid/php/covid-net/index.html). In the event of both resolution sources being unavailable for the time, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 29263, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730211451.996031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730211451.996031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4246848147095286 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0667924739941048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0883497247282679, 0.5667522720827503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.7462504723962555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.05892591724387544, 0.12240282705354902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07931815933359321, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.692838069357762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -74.96034493025404, "peer_score": 0.3205875942679586, "coverage": 0.9818381110413207, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9818381110413207, "spot_peer_score": 40.61971898617, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344504996, "baseline_archived_score": -74.96034493025404, "peer_archived_score": 0.3205875942679586, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.61971898617, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344504996 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of the end of September 2024, the dominant COVID variant in the United States [was](https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/in-2-weeks-xec-jumps-from-5th-to-2nd-most-dominant-covid-variant.html) KP.3.1.1, with XEC having risen from 5th place to 2nd place in just two weeks. Nationally, wastewater detection of viral activity for COVID-19 was remained low, with the exception of Montana, Oregon, and 14 other states. The general trend since mid August was a decline in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Bill Hanage, epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/xec-covid-variant-contagious-will-updated-vaccines-work-rcna172921) on September 27, 2024, that there was no evidence yet that XEC was significantly more transmissable than previous variants.\r\n\r\nThe week ended September 28, 2024, had the lowest hospitalization rate of the corresponding week since the pandemic began. Those rates were:\r\n\r\n- September 26, 2020: 4.3 per 100,000 population\r\n- September 25, 2021: 9.9\r\n- October 1, 2022: 6.0\r\n- September 30, 2023: 4.6\r\n- September 28, 2024: 3.2\r\n\r\nThe monitoring and data sharing tool RESP-NET is [described](https://www.cdc.gov/resp-net/dashboard/index.html) by CDC as follows: \r\n\r\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) monitors laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with influenza, COVID-19, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) among children and adults.\r\n\r\nAt the moment its COVID-19 data comes from the COVID-NET interactive dashboard. According [to CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/covid/php/covid-net/index.html):\r\n\r\n>COVID-NET currently comprises 185 counties and county equivalents in the 13 states participating in the Respiratory Virus Surveillance Network. It covers more than 34 million people and includes an estimated 10% of the U.S. population. The COVID-NET surveillance area is generally similar to the U.S. population by demographics; however, COVID-NET data might not be generalizable to the entire country.\r\n\r\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy/about_data).\r\n\r\nCDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics updated its [2024-2025 Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/season-outlook24-25/index.html) on August 29, 2024. With moderate confidence, CDC projected a peak hospitalization rate similar to or lower than last year's. CDC assumes that new variants this winter will be similar to last winter and that vaccines will have similar performance and usage. With COVID hospitalizations continuing to decline at the time of this question, insights on what the *lowest* hospitalization rate for COVID might be in the fourth quarter of 2024 could support CDC's modeling assumptions and help with predicting the trajectory." }, { "id": 29262, "title": "Will an H5 virus receive an \"emergence\" risk rating categorized as \"high\" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-an-h5-virus-receive-an-emergence-risk-rating-categorized-as-high-by-the-us-cdc-influenza-risk-assessment-tool-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.253781Z", "published_at": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.200829Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29162, "title": "Will an H5 virus receive an \"emergence\" risk rating categorized as \"high\" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-28T13:07:11.253781Z", "open_time": "2024-10-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:04:36.007606Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/national-strategy/influenza-risk-assessment-tool.html):\r\n\r\n>The Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) is an evaluation tool developed by CDC and external influenza experts that assesses the potential pandemic risk posed by influenza A viruses that currently circulate in animals but not in humans.\r\n\r\nThe IRAT evaluates with respect to potential public health impact and emergence--the latter of which is defined as the potential to start spreading easily and efficiently in people, and is the factor that this question asks. To assess this potential for sustained human-to-human spread, researchers examine the following risk elements:\r\n\r\n- Human infections\r\n- Transmission in animal models\r\n- Receptor binding\r\n- Population immunity\r\n- Infections in animals\r\n- Genomic analysis\r\n- Antigenic relatedness\r\n- Global distribution of animals\r\n- Disease severity and pathogenesis\r\n \r\nAs of August 9, 2024, the [published IRAT](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/virus-description.html) potential emergence risk scores ranged from less than 3 (low risk) to 7.5 (upper moderate), The 7.5 was for a strain of H1N1, a Eurasian avian-like swine influenza A(H1N1) (A/swine/Shandong/1207/2016) virus, clade 1C.2.3 and genotype 4. Please see the full H1N1 Virus Report from July of 2020 [here](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/CDC-IRAT-Virus-Report.pdf). The latest H5N1 IRAT emergence risk score is 5.79 from a [Virus Report](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/IRATATexas.pdf) published [August 9, 2024](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.htm) and based on information through June 26, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the Centers for Disease Controls' [Influenza Risk Assessment Tool](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/virus-description.html) (IRAT) provides a weighted risk of potential emergence score characterized as *high* for any H5 influenza virus. This [is defined](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/national-strategy/influenza-risk-assessment-tool.html) as a score greater than or equal to 8.0. If this does not occur before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The IRAT currently has the following risk levels with respect to its scores (on a 10-point scale): \r\n\r\n>Low risk is associated with a point score between 1.0 and 3.9;\r\n>Moderate risk is associated with a point score between 4.0-7.9; and,\r\n>High risk is associated with a point score between 8.0-10.0.\r\n\r\nIf the IRAT's scoring methodology changes, this question resolves based on the mathematically equivalent scores. Should it stop using numerical scores, the question resolves based on whether the new terminology corresponds with the current \"high\" risk categorization.\r\n\r\nAn individual \"risk element\" receiving a score of 8.0 or above does not qualify, only the overall weighted risk of potential emergence score qualifies.", "post_id": 29262, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730211460.377189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07233333333333335 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.195 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730211460.377189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07233333333333335 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.195 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.13517820366248193 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6074245348783763, 0.4359113317030598, 0.40944067771783144, 1.6536488976467403, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 1.4910579528848256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.9105903213533636, 0.14216557363665766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.8277762550959286, 0.7007406619628165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.87443778849854, "peer_score": 2.6527717943027724, "coverage": 0.981586248982284, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.981586248982284, "spot_peer_score": 3.128692624617572, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 83.87443778849854, "peer_archived_score": 2.6527717943027724, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.128692624617572, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/national-strategy/influenza-risk-assessment-tool.html):\r\n\r\n>The Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) is an evaluation tool developed by CDC and external influenza experts that assesses the potential pandemic risk posed by influenza A viruses that currently circulate in animals but not in humans.\r\n\r\nThe IRAT evaluates with respect to potential public health impact and emergence--the latter of which is defined as the potential to start spreading easily and efficiently in people, and is the factor that this question asks. To assess this potential for sustained human-to-human spread, researchers examine the following risk elements:\r\n\r\n- Human infections\r\n- Transmission in animal models\r\n- Receptor binding\r\n- Population immunity\r\n- Infections in animals\r\n- Genomic analysis\r\n- Antigenic relatedness\r\n- Global distribution of animals\r\n- Disease severity and pathogenesis\r\n \r\nAs of August 9, 2024, the [published IRAT](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/virus-description.html) potential emergence risk scores ranged from less than 3 (low risk) to 7.5 (upper moderate), The 7.5 was for a strain of H1N1, a Eurasian avian-like swine influenza A(H1N1) (A/swine/Shandong/1207/2016) virus, clade 1C.2.3 and genotype 4. Please see the full H1N1 Virus Report from July of 2020 [here](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/CDC-IRAT-Virus-Report.pdf). The latest H5N1 IRAT emergence risk score is 5.79 from a [Virus Report](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/IRATATexas.pdf) published [August 9, 2024](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.htm) and based on information through June 26, 2024." }, { "id": 29242, "title": "[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?", "short_title": "Proposition 33 California passing", "url_title": "Proposition 33 California passing", "slug": "proposition-33-california-passing", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-28T06:14:21.391889Z", "published_at": "2024-10-29T19:27:08.901007Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.642872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-29T19:27:08.901005Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": 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3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 29145, "title": "[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?", "created_at": "2024-10-28T06:14:21.391992Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T01:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T01:32:14.180695Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Proposition 33 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_33,_Prohibit_State_Limitations_on_Local_Rent_Control_Initiative_(2024))) will appear on the state-wide ballot in California for the US General Election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will pass if a simple majority who vote on the measure approve it. Since this question will be decided by popular vote, this question essentially asks whether sentiment in California had shifted since the post-Covid housing crisis on whether voters would be inclined to favor rent control. This might be a bellwether on popular attitudes on the housing crisis and progressive sentiment in the United States where people demand the government to take proactive measures to address certain social problems. \r\n\r\nProposition 33 would repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, which prevents local governments from enacting rent control on homes built after 1995 or if the tenants move out. Essentially, Proposition 33 will empower local governments to have more available courses of action to reduce rents. Governor Gavin Newsom passed a law in 2019 that capped rent increase in California to 5 percent plus the rate of inflation or a maximum of 10 percent. However, proponents of Proposition 33 argue that this is insufficient. \r\n\r\nGenerally, tenant advocates support Proposition 33, while landlord interest groups are bankrolling the campaign against it. \r\n\r\nThe conventional wisdom among economists is that rent control will lower the supply of housing since it reduces the profit incentive for developers to produce more housing.\r\n\r\nIn 2020, Proposition 21 was on the ballot, which would authorize cities to enact rent control ordinances. The Proposition only received 40.1 percent approval out of the votes of voted on the proposition. \r\n\r\nSources:\r\nhttps://calmatters.org/housing/2024/10/prop-33-2024-fact-check/\r\nhttps://calmatters.org/election-2020-guide/proposition-21-rent-control/", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if California Proposition 33 passes in the state's 2024 general election, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that this question is looking only at whether the ballot measure passes. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.", "post_id": 29242, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730795270.793167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.375 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730795270.793167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.375 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.28529635323178715 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 1.0255973915892187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.5368042366737084, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.8477007947377986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7357583998909965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05979005729068558, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.5634627278548741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.356222556534625, "peer_score": 12.222507554242227, "coverage": 0.9968256985492729, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9968256985492729, "spot_peer_score": 12.946621950288957, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 55.356222556534625, "peer_archived_score": 12.222507554242227, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.946621950288957, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Proposition 33 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_33,_Prohibit_State_Limitations_on_Local_Rent_Control_Initiative_(2024))) will appear on the state-wide ballot in California for the US General Election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will pass if a simple majority who vote on the measure approve it. Since this question will be decided by popular vote, this question essentially asks whether sentiment in California had shifted since the post-Covid housing crisis on whether voters would be inclined to favor rent control. This might be a bellwether on popular attitudes on the housing crisis and progressive sentiment in the United States where people demand the government to take proactive measures to address certain social problems. \r\n\r\nProposition 33 would repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, which prevents local governments from enacting rent control on homes built after 1995 or if the tenants move out. Essentially, Proposition 33 will empower local governments to have more available courses of action to reduce rents. Governor Gavin Newsom passed a law in 2019 that capped rent increase in California to 5 percent plus the rate of inflation or a maximum of 10 percent. However, proponents of Proposition 33 argue that this is insufficient. \r\n\r\nGenerally, tenant advocates support Proposition 33, while landlord interest groups are bankrolling the campaign against it. \r\n\r\nThe conventional wisdom among economists is that rent control will lower the supply of housing since it reduces the profit incentive for developers to produce more housing.\r\n\r\nIn 2020, Proposition 21 was on the ballot, which would authorize cities to enact rent control ordinances. The Proposition only received 40.1 percent approval out of the votes of voted on the proposition. \r\n\r\nSources:\r\nhttps://calmatters.org/housing/2024/10/prop-33-2024-fact-check/\r\nhttps://calmatters.org/election-2020-guide/proposition-21-rent-control/" }, { "id": 29222, "title": "Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before Oct 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before Oct 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-spacex-re-use-a-starship-booster-before-oct-1-2025", "author_id": 221259, "author_username": "Chaosrider", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-26T19:10:36.073407Z", "published_at": "2024-10-28T02:04:50.210340Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.519688Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-28T02:04:50.210338Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-01T19:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-01T19:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T19:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-30T02:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29125, "title": "Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-26T19:10:36.073491Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T02:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-03T02:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-03T02:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T19:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-01T19:04:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-01T19:04:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SpaceX aims to make the entire [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system—both the Super Heavy booster and Starship spacecraft—fully reusable with a rapid turnaround between launches. To that end, SpaceX developed [a way to catch the Super Heavy booster](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-5-launch-super-heavy-booster-catch-success-video), using the launch tower. However, it is still unclear when SpaceX will re-use one of the caught boosters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2025, SpaceX successfully launches Starship using a previously flown booster.", "fine_print": "- A successful launch is defined as one in which both Starship and booster leave the launchpad under their own power, and the booster separates from Starship at the intended point in flight.\n- The booster does not need to be or have been caught by the chopsticks system at any stage. Any re-use of a booster meeting the criteria will result in a **Yes** resolution.\n- In cases of ambiguity about the booster’s identity (e.g., because parts of different boosters have been combined), this question will resolve based on [the booster’s serial number](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy#Development).", "post_id": 29222, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746023046.29519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746023046.29519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7085167765661453 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031256855951900246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0591057465619562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2207494054275982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0743529554125065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47401681106756194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.702037602378915, 0.5946012199695537, 0.0, 0.1391714993251316, 0.0, 0.20314358457038237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020064761700770095, 1.5247473762275376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09500550146887518, 3.195790673953874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13735291337506933, 0.0, 2.2840678622450907, 0.10277262157203126, 0.027134041465974392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06639265352365246, 0.12605111094439408, 0.1533679428866179, 0.0, 0.017059162801949267, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7492086006196257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007946689641207845, 0.6293191790786068 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SpaceX aims to make the entire [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system—both the Super Heavy booster and Starship spacecraft—fully reusable with a rapid turnaround between launches. To that end, SpaceX developed [a way to catch the Super Heavy booster](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-5-launch-super-heavy-booster-catch-success-video), using the launch tower. However, it is still unclear when SpaceX will re-use one of the caught boosters." }, { "id": 29214, "title": "Lula será candidato a presidente do Brasil em 2026?", "short_title": "Lula será candidato à reeleição em 2026?", "url_title": "Lula será candidato à reeleição em 2026?", "slug": "lula-sera-candidato-a-reeleicao-em-2026", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-25T16:38:31.878318Z", "published_at": "2024-10-25T16:39:00.228626Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.788304Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-25T16:39:00.228623Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-01T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-01T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-25T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29121, "title": "Lula será candidato a presidente do Brasil em 2026?", "created_at": "2024-10-25T16:38:31.878413Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-01T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-01T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lula foi o presidente do Brasil em dois mandatos 2003-2011, e foi eleito presidente novamente em Janeiro de 2023.\nA questão inicial é se ele terá apoio para continuar com o mandato atual ou encontrará outro substituto para disputar a corrida presidencial em Outubro de 2025.\n\n[Lula diz que pode disputar a reeleição em 2026](https://www.poder360.com.br/governo/lula-admite-que-pode-disputar-a-reeleicao-em-2026/)\n\n[Por comando da Câmara, União sinaliza apoio à reeleição de Lula](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/por-comando-da-camara-uniao-sinaliza-apoio-a-reeleicao-de-lula/)\n\n[Quaest: 58% dizem que Lula não deveria se candidatar à reeleição; 40% dizem que sim](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/eleicoes/quaest-58-dizem-que-lula-nao-deveria-se-candidatar-a-reeleicao-40-dizem-que-sim/)", "resolution_criteria": "O candidato deverá ser oficialmente registrado junto ao seu partido até a data limite do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), 15 de agosto de 2025, às 19h (horário de Brasília).\n[TSE calendário](https://www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/calendario-eleitoral)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29214, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747488936.931042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747488936.931042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5608618572749484 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8805672521223714, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.006409490637180558, 0.03450675195196218, 0.0, 0.19044414436503487, 0.0, 0.11040149803270646, 0.0026929702225732283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3373985602531765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038098485368474766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018175126021569836, 0.0, 0.02531939678828675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014357330374357432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38658567053559373, 0.0, 0.16313842160922723, 0.04618511849820684, 0.0, 0.5376037185099556, 0.17669137990545516, 0.0, 0.011180132954712787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13141147943926956, 0.6989013006768872, 0.0, 0.6110402836301606, 0.0, 0.0006320132079752626, 0.15912660815500276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6348733976382719, 0.8342288669485227, 0.005492769954952124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6469557929758354, 0.42347030728526786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23050538493583025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09018239051359613, 0.8865754792578854, 0.0, 0.09379907679016249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5764292212166205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4719759918207209, 2.0395875351925272, 0.0, 0.9172835458768145, 0.0, 0.16379137886358097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6509344506122218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028134217409661617, 0.9616652830867598 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lula foi o presidente do Brasil em dois mandatos 2003-2011, e foi eleito presidente novamente em Janeiro de 2023.\nA questão inicial é se ele terá apoio para continuar com o mandato atual ou encontrará outro substituto para disputar a corrida presidencial em Outubro de 2025.\n\n[Lula diz que pode disputar a reeleição em 2026](https://www.poder360.com.br/governo/lula-admite-que-pode-disputar-a-reeleicao-em-2026/)\n\n[Por comando da Câmara, União sinaliza apoio à reeleição de Lula](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/por-comando-da-camara-uniao-sinaliza-apoio-a-reeleicao-de-lula/)\n\n[Quaest: 58% dizem que Lula não deveria se candidatar à reeleição; 40% dizem que sim](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/eleicoes/quaest-58-dizem-que-lula-nao-deveria-se-candidatar-a-reeleicao-40-dizem-que-sim/)" }, { "id": 29213, "title": "O aborto será legalizado no Brasil até o final de 2030?", "short_title": "Legalização do aborto no Brasil até 2030?", "url_title": "Legalização do aborto no Brasil até 2030?", "slug": "legalizacao-do-aborto-no-brasil-ate-2030", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-25T15:13:55.551071Z", "published_at": "2024-10-25T15:14:26.612032Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.563274Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-25T15:14:26.612030Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29120, "title": "O aborto será legalizado no Brasil até o final de 2030?", "created_at": "2024-10-25T15:13:55.551149Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Projeto de lei prevê pena de homicídio simples para aborto após 22 semanas de gestação](https://www.camara.leg.br/noticias/1071458-projeto-de-lei-preve-pena-de-homicidio-simples-para-aborto-apos-22-semanas-de-gestacao/)\n\n[Câmara aprova urgência de texto que equipara aborto a crime de homicídio; entenda o que é o aborto legal e quando ele é permitido](https://g1.globo.com/saude/noticia/2024/06/13/camara-aprova-urgencia-de-texto-que-equipara-aborto-a-crime-de-homicidio-entenda-o-que-e-o-aborto-legal-e-quando-ele-e-permitido.ghtml)\n\n[Legalização do aborto volta ao debate público com julgamento no STF](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/saude/noticia/2023-09/legalizacao-aborto-debate-publico-julgamento-stf)\n\n[Há 75 anos, padre redigiu 1º projeto de lei do Brasil sobre o aborto](https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/especiais/arquivo-s/ha-75-anos-padre-redigiu-1o-projeto-de-lei-do-brasil-sobre-o-aborto).", "resolution_criteria": "A legalização é definida como a permissão para a interrupção voluntária da gravidez em todo o país, seja por meio de legislação aprovada pelo Congresso Nacional ou por decisão do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), que garanta a descriminalização do aborto para a maioria dos casos.\n\nPara resolver a pergunta como \"Sim\", deve haver uma legislação ou decisão judicial final que descriminalize o aborto a pedido da mulher (sem necessidade de justificativa médica ou judicial) antes do final de 2030.\n\nSe o aborto continuar criminalizado ou restrito apenas a casos excepcionais (como risco de vida para a mulher, estupro ou anencefalia) após essa data, a pergunta será resolvida como \"Não.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29213, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749490345.32698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749490345.32698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05708065739472647 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.194656352184662, 1.993460505470618, 2.4737782848365386, 0.8225198698346389, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03411561381977573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31203101355315743 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Projeto de lei prevê pena de homicídio simples para aborto após 22 semanas de gestação](https://www.camara.leg.br/noticias/1071458-projeto-de-lei-preve-pena-de-homicidio-simples-para-aborto-apos-22-semanas-de-gestacao/)\n\n[Câmara aprova urgência de texto que equipara aborto a crime de homicídio; entenda o que é o aborto legal e quando ele é permitido](https://g1.globo.com/saude/noticia/2024/06/13/camara-aprova-urgencia-de-texto-que-equipara-aborto-a-crime-de-homicidio-entenda-o-que-e-o-aborto-legal-e-quando-ele-e-permitido.ghtml)\n\n[Legalização do aborto volta ao debate público com julgamento no STF](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/saude/noticia/2023-09/legalizacao-aborto-debate-publico-julgamento-stf)\n\n[Há 75 anos, padre redigiu 1º projeto de lei do Brasil sobre o aborto](https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/especiais/arquivo-s/ha-75-anos-padre-redigiu-1o-projeto-de-lei-do-brasil-sobre-o-aborto)." }, { "id": 29212, "title": "Will Republican Congressman David Schweikert be re-elected in Arizona's 1st Congressional District in the 2024 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-republican-congressman-david-schweikert-be-re-elected-in-arizonas-1st-congressional-district-in-the-2024-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.804260Z", "published_at": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.633378Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-11T14:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29119, "title": "Will Republican Congressman David Schweikert be re-elected in Arizona's 1st Congressional District in the 2024 election?", "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.804260Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-11T14:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-11T14:42:52.986629Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Arizona's 1st Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_1st_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if David Schweikert wins the election to the House of Representatives from Arizona's 1st Congressional District in the 2024 US general election. If any other candidate wins, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.", "post_id": 29212, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729952160.093981, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.501 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729952160.093981, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.501 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.499, 0.501 ], "means": [ 0.49303642980858076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.7395033446007386, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.2561885891774373, 0.0, 1.2205956668690798, 0.02581358824615143, 0.27308960725456716, 0.3415440718595426, 0.22984421799326482, 2.5010427929757038, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.7629359560240285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 7.1613575869365045, "peer_score": 3.339129611075, "coverage": 0.9985475253368968, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9985475253368968, "spot_peer_score": 0.5988656155070718, "spot_baseline_score": 0.2882508533121365, "baseline_archived_score": 7.1613575869365045, "peer_archived_score": 3.339129611075, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.5988656155070718, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.2882508533121365 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Arizona's 1st Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_1st_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024." }, { "id": 29211, "title": "Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before January 1, 2025, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-sell-any-shares-of-trump-media-before-january-1-2025-as-revealed-by-a-form-4-filing", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.799761Z", "published_at": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.191140Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T20:20:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29118, "title": "Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before January 1, 2025, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?", "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.799761Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T20:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T20:35:53.215765Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Trump Media & Technology Group owns Truth Social, and Former President Donald Trump currently owns 36 million shares of the company, according to the most recent [Form 4 filing](https://s3.amazonaws.com/sec.irpass.cc/2660/0001474506-24-000146.htm) with his name on it. According to the New York Times, Trump's 6 month lockup period is [scheduled to end](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/business/trump-media-stock-truth-social.html) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. According to Seeking Alpha, Trump [told a reporter](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4149683-trump-media-jumps-25-as-former-president-suggests-he-wont-sell-shares) at a press conference that he was not prepared to start selling shares, causing the stock price to jump in reaction to that statement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on January 1, 2025, there is a Form 4 posted at [this](https://ir.tmtgcorp.com/financials/sec-filings/) SEC filings page for Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., dated after the launch of this question, revealing that former President Donald Trump has made any disposals of his derivative securities in the company. If there is no such Form 4 filing on that page, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. Please note for example that the resolution link is not the SEC EDGAR database, so forecasters who believe there is a material chance that Trump Media's investor relations page will not be timely updated should forecast accordingly.", "post_id": 29211, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729952166.62763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16649999999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729952166.62763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16649999999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.256214657779911 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.6771830972709255, 1.1186642717769677, 0.03573243764150962, 0.3733687775975512, 0.028218870368318452, 2.141340443264169, 0.9842667791668258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Trump Media & Technology Group owns Truth Social, and Former President Donald Trump currently owns 36 million shares of the company, according to the most recent [Form 4 filing](https://s3.amazonaws.com/sec.irpass.cc/2660/0001474506-24-000146.htm) with his name on it. According to the New York Times, Trump's 6 month lockup period is [scheduled to end](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/business/trump-media-stock-truth-social.html) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. According to Seeking Alpha, Trump [told a reporter](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4149683-trump-media-jumps-25-as-former-president-suggests-he-wont-sell-shares) at a press conference that he was not prepared to start selling shares, causing the stock price to jump in reaction to that statement." }, { "id": 29210, "title": "At the end of 2024, will Wikipedia still list Venezuela as \"currently\" blocking access to Twitter/X?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "at-the-end-of-2024-will-wikipedia-still-list-venezuela-as-currently-blocking-access-to-twitterx", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.645845Z", "published_at": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.469904Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29117, "title": "At the end of 2024, will Wikipedia still list Venezuela as \"currently\" blocking access to Twitter/X?", "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.645845Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:10:52.265009Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"On August 8, 2024, President Nicolás Maduro announced a ban on access to Twitter for ten days amid anti-government protests, citing incitations of hatred, fascism and civil war.[124] The ban was subsequently extended for an indefinite period.[125]\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists Twitter (also known as X) as currently blocking Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or around January 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list Twitter/X as currently being blocked, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome. 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Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. \r\n\r\nThe September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/12/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-remaining-meetings-of-2024) for September 18th." }, { "id": 29207, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before November 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-before-november-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.635897Z", "published_at": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.221703Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T19:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29114, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before November 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.635897Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T19:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-04T19:51:15.469518Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. \r\n\r\nThe September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/12/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-remaining-meetings-of-2024) for September 18th.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after September 30, 2024, and before November 1, 2024 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.\r\nThe primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the Federal Reserve's official minutes and statements[here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the Federal Reserve's website is unavailable.", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the announcement. 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Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. \r\n\r\nThe September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/12/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-remaining-meetings-of-2024) for September 18th." }, { "id": 29206, "title": "Will Mike McCarthy be the Dallas Cowboys head coach on January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-mike-mccarthy-be-the-dallas-cowboys-head-coach-on-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.631759Z", "published_at": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.328257Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T12:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29113, "title": "Will Mike McCarthy be the Dallas Cowboys head coach on January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.631759Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T12:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T12:28:16.634870Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Sporting News: [Will Cowboys fire Mike McCarthy? Why embattled coach is on hot seat after Dallas starts 1-2](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/will-cowboys-fire-mike-mccarthy-coach-hot-seat/3ff1abbba7137a60366b2851)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on January 1, 2025, Mike McCarthy is the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the official Cowboys website [coaches roster](https://www.dallascowboys.com/team/coaches-roster/). Otherwise this question resolves as **No.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29206, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729952261.394823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.544 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62368 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729952261.394823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.544 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62368 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45599999999999996, 0.544 ], "means": [ 0.5413841397368847 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5873045461391397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.015708539450405595, 0.7504306013229386, 0.0, 1.1328338493922399, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.04423342207722153, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.7253542427998305, 0.0902215738421042, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09283202621282585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5701559873286314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 30.44505154078742, "peer_score": 10.554600565827647, "coverage": 0.9951544602077316, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9951544602077316, "spot_peer_score": -3.469883121625814, "spot_baseline_score": 12.167855658825246, "baseline_archived_score": 30.44505154078742, "peer_archived_score": 10.554600565827647, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.469883121625814, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 12.167855658825246 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Sporting News: [Will Cowboys fire Mike McCarthy? Why embattled coach is on hot seat after Dallas starts 1-2](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/will-cowboys-fire-mike-mccarthy-coach-hot-seat/3ff1abbba7137a60366b2851)" }, { "id": 29205, "title": "Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-russian-government-officially-ban-youtube-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.469036Z", "published_at": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.702861Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T20:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29112, "title": "Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.469036Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T20:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T20:19:55.609231Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As Moscow has cracked down on independent Russian-language media since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, YouTube has remained a key platform for opposition figures and dissenting voices. However, recent reports of mass outages and slowdowns of the video-sharing platform in Russia have raised concerns about its future in the country.\n\nRussian lawmakers have [blamed Google](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/youtube-slowdown-russia-darkens-freedom-speech-outlook-2024-08-08/), which owns YouTube, for failing to upgrade its equipment in Russia since the invasion, leading to the slowdown that started in mid-July 2024. They claim that the degradation of service is a necessary step to persuade YouTube to reinstate blocked Russian channels. However, Google and technology experts dispute this explanation.\n\nA recent [Russian-language article](https://news.ru/russia/kogda-youtube-zarabotaet-normalno-v-rossii-chto-dlya-etogo-nuzhno/) discussed how this ban could still be in the works (translated by Google Translate):\n\n>According to the chairman of the Digital Economy Development Fund, German Klimenko, YouTube will be blocked in Russia in three to five months.\n\n>\"I think that testing is underway. YouTube's fate is probably predetermined, and it is similar to Instagram's fate (operations are prohibited in the Russian Federation). I would assume that YouTube will hang around for three to five months, and then be blocked,\" he said in a conversation with [aif.ru](https://aif.ru/society/web/-sudba-youtube-reshena-german-klimenko-o-durove-youtube-i-ii-v-seti).\n\nAdditionally:\n\n>Deputy Speaker of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Boris Chernyshov told NEWS.ru that large-scale work is currently underway to increase the capacity of Russian video hosting sites: Rutube, VK video and others, which should replace the American video hosting.\n\n>\"This can be seen from the strong advertising campaign of domestic services. And due to the decline in the quality of the YouTube service, which is currently working intermittently, many bloggers, presenters, and authors have begun to transfer their content to Russian platforms and duplicate all new releases there by default,\" Chernyshov said.\n\nHowever, Chernyshov subsequently [said](https://lenta.ru/news/2024/09/21/deputat-ob-yasnil-zayavlenie-o-polnoy-blokirovke-youtube-v-rossii/) he was misquoted.\n\nAs tensions between Russia and YouTube continue to escalate, this question aims to assess whether the Russian government will take the drastic step of officially banning the platform before January 1, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the Russian government or its official agencies (e.g., Roskomnadzor, explained in the Fine Print) announce a complete ban on access to YouTube within Russia or implement technical measures that effectively block the platform nationwide. The resolution source will be the agencies themselves and/or reporting by other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if YouTube remains accessible in Russia, even with occasional slowdowns or regional outages, and no official ban is announced or implemented by the Russian government before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "- The ban must be officially announced or implemented by the Russian government or its agencies. Statements by individual lawmakers or unofficial sources will not be considered for resolution.\n- Temporary or partial restrictions on YouTube, such as the blocking of specific channels or videos, will not count as a ban unless they effectively prevent access to the entire platform in Russia.\n- The announcement of the intention to ban YouTube is enough to resolve this question as Yes even if no specific implementation date is mentioned.\n\nWith Roskomnadzor, the state of blocking will be checked by entering the query `youtube.com` in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official [blocklist site](https://blocklist.rkn.gov.ru/) and submitting the form. (Please note that the blocklist might not be accessible outside of Russia and a few neighbouring countries without the use of a VPN.)\n\nIf the message returned is: \"доступ ограничивается к странице\" (access to the page is limited), this would mean that the site is in the blocklist and this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIf the message returned is: \"По Вашему запросу ничего не найдено\" (nothing has been found for your query), this would mean that the site is not included in the blocklist and this question resolves as No, as long as there are no other credible sources reporting an announcement or implementation of a ban.", "post_id": 29205, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729952287.885133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51328 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729952287.885133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51328 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4432368869245232 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3969048338959735, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316173949063204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38126887382127717, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0315454926338852, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8640456412887769, 1.5325522681110344, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8389551441531455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 31.00471386919259, "coverage": 0.9947208761699774, "baseline_score": 35.47040531834922, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9947208761699774, "spot_peer_score": 11.366739114457847, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "peer_archived_score": 31.00471386919259, "baseline_archived_score": 35.47040531834922, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.366739114457847, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As Moscow has cracked down on independent Russian-language media since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, YouTube has remained a key platform for opposition figures and dissenting voices. However, recent reports of mass outages and slowdowns of the video-sharing platform in Russia have raised concerns about its future in the country.\n\nRussian lawmakers have [blamed Google](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/youtube-slowdown-russia-darkens-freedom-speech-outlook-2024-08-08/), which owns YouTube, for failing to upgrade its equipment in Russia since the invasion, leading to the slowdown that started in mid-July 2024. They claim that the degradation of service is a necessary step to persuade YouTube to reinstate blocked Russian channels. However, Google and technology experts dispute this explanation.\n\nA recent [Russian-language article](https://news.ru/russia/kogda-youtube-zarabotaet-normalno-v-rossii-chto-dlya-etogo-nuzhno/) discussed how this ban could still be in the works (translated by Google Translate):\n\n>According to the chairman of the Digital Economy Development Fund, German Klimenko, YouTube will be blocked in Russia in three to five months.\n\n>\"I think that testing is underway. YouTube's fate is probably predetermined, and it is similar to Instagram's fate (operations are prohibited in the Russian Federation). I would assume that YouTube will hang around for three to five months, and then be blocked,\" he said in a conversation with [aif.ru](https://aif.ru/society/web/-sudba-youtube-reshena-german-klimenko-o-durove-youtube-i-ii-v-seti).\n\nAdditionally:\n\n>Deputy Speaker of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Boris Chernyshov told NEWS.ru that large-scale work is currently underway to increase the capacity of Russian video hosting sites: Rutube, VK video and others, which should replace the American video hosting.\n\n>\"This can be seen from the strong advertising campaign of domestic services. And due to the decline in the quality of the YouTube service, which is currently working intermittently, many bloggers, presenters, and authors have begun to transfer their content to Russian platforms and duplicate all new releases there by default,\" Chernyshov said.\n\nHowever, Chernyshov subsequently [said](https://lenta.ru/news/2024/09/21/deputat-ob-yasnil-zayavlenie-o-polnoy-blokirovke-youtube-v-rossii/) he was misquoted.\n\nAs tensions between Russia and YouTube continue to escalate, this question aims to assess whether the Russian government will take the drastic step of officially banning the platform before January 1, 2025." }, { "id": 29204, "title": "Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-steelnippon-steel-merger-collapse-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.462668Z", "published_at": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.303539Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29111, "title": "Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.462668Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:11:30.291146Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5283, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel):\r\n\r\n>On December 18, 2023, Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel Corporation (NSC), the world's third largest steel producer, entered a definitive agreement to purchase United States Steel Corporation (U.S. Steel) for $14.9 billion. Under the terms of the deal, U.S. Steel will become a wholly owned subsidiary of NSC but retain its name and headquarters in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania [...].\r\n\r\n>The potential foreign ownership of U.S. Steel, which is widely considered an icon of American industry, has generated controversy in the U.S. The White House, lawmakers from both major parties, and the USW have criticized or opposed the deal due to concerns about its impact on workers, supply chains, and national security. Conversely, the transaction has garnered support from various government officials, policy experts, and business analysts, who argue that it will help revitalize U.S. Steel and the country's declining steel industry and counter that Japan is a major economic partner and investor.\r\n\r\n>On March 14, 2024, the Biden Administration announced its opposition to the planned acquisition, echoing a statement by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who pledged to block the deal \"instantaneously\" if elected president in the upcoming 2024 presidential elections. The deal is undergoing an antitrust review by the U.S. Department of Justice, and a possible investigation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Nippon Steel has subsequently delayed its timeline for closing the deal from the middle of 2024 towards the end of the year.\r\n\r\nCFIUS let the companies [refile their application](https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/us-decision-nippons-bid-us-steel-pushed-back-until-after-election-2024-09-17/) in September, which sets a new deadline in December for the CFIUS to make a decision.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any of the following occur before the merger deal between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel has been fulfilled:\r\n\r\n- The sitting U.S. President issues an executive order blocking the deal\r\n- U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel jointly announce the deal's cancellation\r\n- Either U.S. Steel or Nippon Steel unilaterally terminates the deal\r\n- Either U.S. Steel or Nippon Steel files an SEC Form 8-K announcing the merger agreement's termination or abandonment.\r\n\r\nIf none of these have occurred before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.\r\n\r\nSubsequent legal actions (e.g., lawsuits appealing an executive order) do not affect the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "The CFIUS recommendation does not directly impact the resolution of this question, even if the CFIUS recommends blocking the deal, as it lacks enforcement authority.", "post_id": 29204, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729952313.817475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7885 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729952313.817475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7885 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6991121715524861 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 1.0354966671104644, 0.0, 1.060347762205102, 0.39480514941919426, 0.0, 0.8131590883712692, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 1.0534178666754117, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.24765152338511187, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_score": -75.93343030438345, "peer_score": 30.30625293982198, "coverage": 0.994285132755284, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.994285132755284, "spot_peer_score": 21.29454411348162, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": -75.93343030438345, "peer_archived_score": 30.30625293982198, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.29454411348162 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel):\r\n\r\n>On December 18, 2023, Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel Corporation (NSC), the world's third largest steel producer, entered a definitive agreement to purchase United States Steel Corporation (U.S. Steel) for $14.9 billion. Under the terms of the deal, U.S. Steel will become a wholly owned subsidiary of NSC but retain its name and headquarters in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania [...].\r\n\r\n>The potential foreign ownership of U.S. Steel, which is widely considered an icon of American industry, has generated controversy in the U.S. The White House, lawmakers from both major parties, and the USW have criticized or opposed the deal due to concerns about its impact on workers, supply chains, and national security. Conversely, the transaction has garnered support from various government officials, policy experts, and business analysts, who argue that it will help revitalize U.S. Steel and the country's declining steel industry and counter that Japan is a major economic partner and investor.\r\n\r\n>On March 14, 2024, the Biden Administration announced its opposition to the planned acquisition, echoing a statement by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who pledged to block the deal \"instantaneously\" if elected president in the upcoming 2024 presidential elections. The deal is undergoing an antitrust review by the U.S. Department of Justice, and a possible investigation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Nippon Steel has subsequently delayed its timeline for closing the deal from the middle of 2024 towards the end of the year.\r\n\r\nCFIUS let the companies [refile their application](https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/us-decision-nippons-bid-us-steel-pushed-back-until-after-election-2024-09-17/) in September, which sets a new deadline in December for the CFIUS to make a decision." }, { "id": 29203, "title": "Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-china-officially-announce-export-restrictions-on-any-additional-metals-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.456731Z", "published_at": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.610373Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29110, "title": "Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.456731Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:12:39.035090Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's [recent announcement](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/chinas-antimony-export-controls-rattle-the-tungsten-industry.html) of export controls on antimony, effective September 15, 2024, has raised concerns among industry insiders about the country's willingness to leverage its dominance in the global supply chain of critical metals. Antimony, used in bullets, nuclear weapons production, and lead-acid batteries, is just one of many metals that China has a significant share of global production.\n\nThe announcement follows China's previous export controls [on graphite](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-use-graphite-export-restrictions-encourages-diversification) in 2023 and restrictions on germanium and gallium, two metals used in chipmaking, in response to U.S. efforts to limit China's access to high-end semiconductors. These moves have led some industry experts to speculate that China may soon impose export controls on other critical metals, such as tungsten, which is nearly as hard as a diamond and used in weapons, semiconductors, and industrial cutting machines.\n\nChina's actions are seen by some as retaliatory measures against what it perceives as intrusions into its national interests. As a result, companies in the U.S. and elsewhere are exploring alternatives to reduce their reliance on China for critical metals. However, it remains to be seen whether China will follow through with a blanket implementation of the latest export controls or announce restrictions on additional metals in the near future.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, before January 1, 2025, the Chinese government or any of its official agencies (e.g., Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs) publicly announces (according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)) new export restrictions or controls on any metals not previously subject to such measures as of September 29, 2024.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if no such announcement is made by the Chinese government or its agencies before January 1, 2025, according to any credible source reporting that can be found.", "fine_print": "- The announcement must be an official statement from the Chinese government or its agencies and must clearly indicate the imposition of new export restrictions or controls on specific metals.\n- If China announces the intention to impose new export restrictions or controls on a metal but does not provide a specific implementation date, the question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the announcement is made before January 1, 2025.\n- Amendments or extensions of existing export restrictions on metals will not count towards a \"Yes\" resolution unless they substantially expand the scope or severity of the controls. In case of any ambiguity in such cases, a panel of Metaculus Admins will make a ruling.", "post_id": 29203, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729952335.403043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.379 ], "centers": [ 0.498 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6148 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729952335.403043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.379 ], "centers": [ 0.498 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6148 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.502, 0.498 ], "means": [ 0.49601139659820204 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.17268933784629537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3393806732212451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3620323099528389, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0839758874887769, 0.3268262380230357, 0.5608812398816437, 0.3301658287663055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8640456412887769, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0113649005183396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7087208142853587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -37.68076932335654, "peer_score": 4.343464182325906, "coverage": 0.9938712704043697, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9938712704043697, "spot_peer_score": 24.256310971504526, "spot_baseline_score": -0.578235259400611, "baseline_archived_score": -37.68076932335654, "peer_archived_score": 4.343464182325906, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.256310971504526, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -0.578235259400611 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's [recent announcement](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/chinas-antimony-export-controls-rattle-the-tungsten-industry.html) of export controls on antimony, effective September 15, 2024, has raised concerns among industry insiders about the country's willingness to leverage its dominance in the global supply chain of critical metals. Antimony, used in bullets, nuclear weapons production, and lead-acid batteries, is just one of many metals that China has a significant share of global production.\n\nThe announcement follows China's previous export controls [on graphite](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-use-graphite-export-restrictions-encourages-diversification) in 2023 and restrictions on germanium and gallium, two metals used in chipmaking, in response to U.S. efforts to limit China's access to high-end semiconductors. These moves have led some industry experts to speculate that China may soon impose export controls on other critical metals, such as tungsten, which is nearly as hard as a diamond and used in weapons, semiconductors, and industrial cutting machines.\n\nChina's actions are seen by some as retaliatory measures against what it perceives as intrusions into its national interests. As a result, companies in the U.S. and elsewhere are exploring alternatives to reduce their reliance on China for critical metals. However, it remains to be seen whether China will follow through with a blanket implementation of the latest export controls or announce restrictions on additional metals in the near future." }, { "id": 29202, "title": "Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-eric-adams-be-mayor-of-new-york-city-on-the-1st-of-january-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.450412Z", "published_at": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.586570Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29109, "title": "Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.450412Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:13:25.504651Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021. \n\nFollowing [investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigations_into_the_Eric_Adams_administration) by the FBI and the US attorney for the Southern District of New York into the Adams administration, on the 26th of September 2024, [US vs Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Eric_Adams) was unsealed, which details five separate charges (bribery, 2 counts of solicitation of contributions from foreign nationals, wire fraud, and conspiracy to commit wire fraud) of which a grand jury voted to indict Adams.\n\nEric Adams [was arraigned](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/27/us/eric-adams-nyc-mayor-arraignment/index.html) on the 27th of September 2024 and pleaded not guilty. Adams [has suggested](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-mayor-adams-has-been-indicted-after-corruption-probe-new-york-times-2024-09-26/) that he plans to remain in office whilst fighting the charges, and has rebuffed [calls](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/09/27/congress/nadler-calls-on-adams-to-resign-00181411) from 5 democratic members of congress and dozens of local elected officials to resign. Τhe Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, [has also resisted](https://nypost.com/2024/09/26/us-news/hochul-stops-short-of-telling-eric-adams-to-resign-gives-nyc-mayor-a-few-days-to-think/) calls to remove Adams and House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries [has said](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/jeffries-says-eric-adams-should-not-resign-00182570) that Adams should not resign. \n\nA [Marist College poll](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/eric-adams-resignation-poll-00182509) conducted from September 30 to October 1 of 1,073 registered voters in New York City found that 65% of respondents believed Adams had committed illegal acts and 70% wanted him to resign; if he doesn't, 63% want Hochul to remove him. The governor [has the power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_New_York_City#Removal_from_office) to remove the mayor after hearing his case, and also has the power to suspend the mayor for 30 days whilst deciding whether or not to remove him. There are also procedures to remove the mayor without the governor's involvement, but they have never been used before.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no credible reports or official announcements of the resignation or removal of Eric Adams from the position of the Mayor of New York City before the 1st of January, 2025.", "fine_print": "The suspension of the mayor by the governor is not sufficient to resolve as **Yes**, even if the mayor is suspended at the time of resolution.", "post_id": 29202, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729952364.007609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49200000000000005 ], "centers": [ 0.675 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.742 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729952364.007609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49200000000000005 ], "centers": [ 0.675 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.742 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32499999999999996, 0.675 ], "means": [ 0.6352064559727637 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8456151362805138, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.18928544250154666, 0.0, 0.3446906852301696, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.209730292168739, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.477908595673392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 1.1297037395055036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 38.39373922681388, "peer_score": 6.503402411013276, "coverage": 0.9753068564363101, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9753068564363101, "spot_peer_score": 10.285486366493496, "spot_baseline_score": 43.29594072761063, "baseline_archived_score": 38.39373922681388, "peer_archived_score": 6.503402411013276, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.285486366493496, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 43.29594072761063 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021. \n\nFollowing [investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigations_into_the_Eric_Adams_administration) by the FBI and the US attorney for the Southern District of New York into the Adams administration, on the 26th of September 2024, [US vs Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Eric_Adams) was unsealed, which details five separate charges (bribery, 2 counts of solicitation of contributions from foreign nationals, wire fraud, and conspiracy to commit wire fraud) of which a grand jury voted to indict Adams.\n\nEric Adams [was arraigned](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/27/us/eric-adams-nyc-mayor-arraignment/index.html) on the 27th of September 2024 and pleaded not guilty. Adams [has suggested](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-mayor-adams-has-been-indicted-after-corruption-probe-new-york-times-2024-09-26/) that he plans to remain in office whilst fighting the charges, and has rebuffed [calls](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/09/27/congress/nadler-calls-on-adams-to-resign-00181411) from 5 democratic members of congress and dozens of local elected officials to resign. Τhe Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, [has also resisted](https://nypost.com/2024/09/26/us-news/hochul-stops-short-of-telling-eric-adams-to-resign-gives-nyc-mayor-a-few-days-to-think/) calls to remove Adams and House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries [has said](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/jeffries-says-eric-adams-should-not-resign-00182570) that Adams should not resign. \n\nA [Marist College poll](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/eric-adams-resignation-poll-00182509) conducted from September 30 to October 1 of 1,073 registered voters in New York City found that 65% of respondents believed Adams had committed illegal acts and 70% wanted him to resign; if he doesn't, 63% want Hochul to remove him. The governor [has the power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_New_York_City#Removal_from_office) to remove the mayor after hearing his case, and also has the power to suspend the mayor for 30 days whilst deciding whether or not to remove him. There are also procedures to remove the mayor without the governor's involvement, but they have never been used before." }, { "id": 29201, "title": "Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-more-united-kingdom-mps-be-suspended-from-their-party-resign-or-change-allegiance-before-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.442868Z", "published_at": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.484927Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T17:58:22Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29108, "title": "Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-25T13:01:11.442868Z", "open_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T17:58:22Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-01T17:58:37.872592Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United Kingdom has seen several MPs suspended from their parties, resign, or change political allegiance in recent years due to various factors such as political scandals, internal party conflicts, or shifting personal or ideological stances. Since the July 4, 2024 general election, seven Labour MPs [were suspended](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c978m6z3egno) for voting against the party on an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit cap, and one [resigned](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/mp-rosie-duffield-resigns-labour-keir-starmer-zxm6h8lzq) over the so-called [freebies controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Labour_Party_freebies_controversy).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 15, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, at least one Member of the UK Parliament gets suspended from their party, resigns, or changes their allegiance, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "- Any change of allegiance, voluntary or not, will resolve this question as **Yes**, including but not limited to an independent MP becoming a member of a party.\n- Only party allegiance is relevant for this question. An MP joining or leaving a technical group will not affect resolution in any way.", "post_id": 29201, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729952385.718148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5345 ], "centers": [ 0.6599999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729952385.718148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5345 ], "centers": [ 0.6599999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3400000000000002, 0.6599999999999998 ], "means": [ 0.6710784604236276 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 1.4264499584570487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.11892943297667151, 0.2792701067509186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.9090545283477725, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5407328036694463, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.6459005777305182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 50.107767998129674, "peer_score": -0.46850891410266315, "coverage": 0.9750244545136336, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9750244545136336, "spot_peer_score": -4.32014921559292, "spot_baseline_score": 40.05379295837283, "baseline_archived_score": 50.107767998129674, "peer_archived_score": -0.46850891410266315, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.32014921559292, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 40.05379295837283 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United Kingdom has seen several MPs suspended from their parties, resign, or change political allegiance in recent years due to various factors such as political scandals, internal party conflicts, or shifting personal or ideological stances. 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