Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1920
{ "count": 5956, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1940", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1900", "results": [ { "id": 29183, "title": "Will Kelly Ayotte win the New Hampshire gubernatorial election in 2024?", "short_title": "Kelly Ayotte wins?", "url_title": "Kelly Ayotte wins?", "slug": "kelly-ayotte-wins", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-24T22:04:17.725406Z", "published_at": "2024-10-24T22:04:25.752496Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.443961Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-24T22:04:25.752494Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T23:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T23:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T23:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T22:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 29089, "title": "Will Kelly Ayotte win the New Hampshire gubernatorial election in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-24T22:04:17.725510Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-29T22:04:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-29T22:04:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T23:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T22:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T22:43:09.802115Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T23:02:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T23:02:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Kelly Ayotte, a former U.S. Senator from New Hampshire, is running in the 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. As a Republican candidate with a significant political background, she has a strong presence in the state’s political landscape. However, New Hampshire’s gubernatorial elections can be competitive, with potential shifts in voter preferences based on national and local issues.\n\nAyotte’s campaign will be shaped by various factors, including her previous experience, her stance on key issues affecting New Hampshire, and the dynamics of the 2024 national election. The state's electorate has historically been known for being politically independent, with voters who are willing to swing between parties.\n\nThis question asks whether Kelly Ayotte will secure victory in the 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election, with results expected shortly after Election Day.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if Kelly Ayotte is winning according to AP at the stated resolution time.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if:\n\nKelly Ayotte loses the election to another candidate at the time of resolution time.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29183, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730742225.74558, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730742225.74558, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6797827416129576 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.511261806092234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 1.0680105702489033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 50.32360352506204, "peer_score": 30.335826013225127, "coverage": 0.9993550188377445, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9993550188377445, "spot_peer_score": 31.11115290353365, "baseline_archived_score": 50.32360352506204, "peer_archived_score": 30.335826013225127, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.11115290353365 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Kelly Ayotte, a former U.S. Senator from New Hampshire, is running in the 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. As a Republican candidate with a significant political background, she has a strong presence in the state’s political landscape. However, New Hampshire’s gubernatorial elections can be competitive, with potential shifts in voter preferences based on national and local issues.\n\nAyotte’s campaign will be shaped by various factors, including her previous experience, her stance on key issues affecting New Hampshire, and the dynamics of the 2024 national election. The state's electorate has historically been known for being politically independent, with voters who are willing to swing between parties.\n\nThis question asks whether Kelly Ayotte will secure victory in the 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election, with results expected shortly after Election Day." }, { "id": 29181, "title": "Will the 2024 US presidential election be called before 5:00 PM on 11/7/2024?", "short_title": "Will the election be called quickly?", "url_title": "Will the election be called quickly?", "slug": "will-the-election-be-called-quickly", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-24T21:56:11.898744Z", "published_at": "2024-10-24T21:56:39.139881Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.117561Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-24T21:56:39.139879Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T22:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T22:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T22:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T22:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 29087, "title": "Will the 2024 US presidential election be called before 5:00 PM on 11/7/2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-24T21:56:11.898863Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-29T21:56:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-29T21:56:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T22:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T22:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T22:42:16.987912Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T22:55:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T22:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Associated Press (AP) has historically been one of the most trusted and widely cited news organizations in the United States when it comes to officially declaring election results. In previous elections, the AP has made its call once a candidate has secured a sufficient number of electoral votes, based on reliable data from the states' vote counts.\n\nThe timing of when AP calls the election can vary significantly. In 2020, due to an increase in mail-in voting and delays in counting, the AP called the race on Saturday, November 7, after several days of counting in key swing states. In contrast, in earlier elections, such as 2016, the race was called late in the evening on Election Day.\n\nThis question asks whether the AP will officially declare a winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election before 5:00 PM EST on November 7, 2024. The increasing prevalence of early voting and the potential for tight races in battleground states may impact the timing of the result. If the race is too close to call in certain states or if there are delays in counting votes, this could extend the timeframe before a winner is announced.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the Associated Press (AP) officially declares the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election before 5:00 PM EST on November 7, 2024.\n\nThe AP \"calling\" the election refers to their official announcement of the presidential candidate who has secured enough electoral votes to win the election, regardless of whether all states have completed counting their votes. The announcement must be public and clearly indicate the winning candidate.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if:\n\nThe AP has not called the election by 5:00 PM EST on November 7, 2024.\nNo winner is declared by the AP due to delays, legal disputes, recounts, or other reasons.\nThe timing of when AP calls the election will be based on public reports from the AP's website or official communications, such as on their Twitter account or through other major news organizations citing the AP.\n\nSources other than AP (e.g., other media outlets or news services) will not be considered in the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29181, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730506970.877015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730506970.877015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4366994077901326 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -39.82767137855686, "peer_score": 62.032390957675325, "coverage": 0.9998921726699197, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998921726699197, "spot_peer_score": 44.666775474599554, "baseline_archived_score": -39.82767137855686, "peer_archived_score": 62.032390957675325, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.666775474599554 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Associated Press (AP) has historically been one of the most trusted and widely cited news organizations in the United States when it comes to officially declaring election results. In previous elections, the AP has made its call once a candidate has secured a sufficient number of electoral votes, based on reliable data from the states' vote counts.\n\nThe timing of when AP calls the election can vary significantly. In 2020, due to an increase in mail-in voting and delays in counting, the AP called the race on Saturday, November 7, after several days of counting in key swing states. In contrast, in earlier elections, such as 2016, the race was called late in the evening on Election Day.\n\nThis question asks whether the AP will officially declare a winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election before 5:00 PM EST on November 7, 2024. The increasing prevalence of early voting and the potential for tight races in battleground states may impact the timing of the result. If the race is too close to call in certain states or if there are delays in counting votes, this could extend the timeframe before a winner is announced." }, { "id": 29180, "title": "What is the probability that the Brown Daily Herald (BDH) will report on student response to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election (either negative or positive) by 2:00 PM EST on 11/7?", "short_title": "Will BDH report organized student response to 2024 election?", "url_title": "Will BDH report organized student response to 2024 election?", "slug": "will-bdh-report-organized-student-response-to-2024-election", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-24T21:52:31.347803Z", "published_at": "2024-10-24T21:53:20.614280Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.940845Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-24T21:53:20.614278Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T22:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 29086, "title": "What is the probability that the Brown Daily Herald (BDH) will report on student response to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election (either negative or positive) by 2:00 PM EST on 11/7?", "created_at": "2024-10-24T21:52:31.347908Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T22:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T22:42:41.839031Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BDH is the Brown Daily Herald: https://www.browndailyherald.com/", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if an article is published by the Brown Daily Herald (BDH) by 2:00 PM EST on [insert date], reporting on student responses to the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\n\nA \"student response\" is defined as any collective or individual reaction from students regarding the election results. 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[fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was \"listening keenly to what the people of Kenya have said\" as a concession to protestors. This follows several weeks of nationwide protests so intense they Ruto had to be [barricaded](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/opinion/kenya-protests-politics.html) into his presidential compound. On June 25, 2024, police [opened fire](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/young-kenyan-tax-protesters-plan-nationwide-demonstrations-2024-06-25/) on protestors attempting to enter the parliament. In total at least [39 people](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/07/09/kenyas-deadly-gen-z-protests-could-change-the-country) have been killed. \n\n\nThe protests, which were sparked by unpopular proposed tax hikes. evolved into [demands for Ruto's ouster](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-activists-call-fresh-protests-demanding-rutos-resignation-2024-06-28/). A day after dismissing his cabinet, the police chief of Kenya, Inspector General Japhet Koome, [resigned](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/12/kenya-police-chief-resigns-after-criticism-over-protest-crackdown) amid accusations of using excessive force on protestors. \n\nSee Also\n\n- Wikipedia: [Kenya Finance Bill protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Finance_Bill_protests)<br />\n- The Standard (Kenya newspaper): [Ruto faces tough week amidst calls for his resignation](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001499004/ruto-faces-tough-week-amidst-calls-for-his-resignation)<br />\n- The Standard: [Corruption, unemployment, broken pledges, abductions sunk Ruto ship](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001498951/corruption-unemployment-broken-pledges-abductions-sunk-ruto-ship)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if according to credible sources William Ruto ceases to be the President of Kenya before January 1, 2025, for any reason including but not limited to resignation, impeachment, losing an election, or removal from office via a coup. Otherwise, this question resolves as No.", "fine_print": "If Ruto is still President of Kenya but another individual takes over temporarily, this will not count as long as Ruto resumes his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nIf Ruto ceases to be President and takes another role such as Prime Minister, this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIn cases of severe uncertainty causing disagreement among credible sources, Admins will refer to the [UN Heads of State list](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) to see if Ruto's name is still listed as President of the Republic of Kenya.", "post_id": 29170, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729865764.225858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08666666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729865764.225858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08666666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.18122192300966064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.7481419951037309, 0.7798433790004251, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.7501523630342828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31000350982900177, 0.4250004127035415, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.35783526331985815, 0.0, 1.1621329638394835, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.9134389029481002, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.18053078585571, "peer_score": 1.346768857241037, "coverage": 0.9863549889927664, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9863549889927664, "spot_peer_score": -1.0322891083735506, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "baseline_archived_score": 75.18053078585571, "peer_archived_score": 1.346768857241037, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.0322891083735506, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was \"listening keenly to what the people of Kenya have said\" as a concession to protestors. This follows several weeks of nationwide protests so intense they Ruto had to be [barricaded](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/opinion/kenya-protests-politics.html) into his presidential compound. On June 25, 2024, police [opened fire](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/young-kenyan-tax-protesters-plan-nationwide-demonstrations-2024-06-25/) on protestors attempting to enter the parliament. In total at least [39 people](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/07/09/kenyas-deadly-gen-z-protests-could-change-the-country) have been killed. \n\n\nThe protests, which were sparked by unpopular proposed tax hikes. evolved into [demands for Ruto's ouster](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-activists-call-fresh-protests-demanding-rutos-resignation-2024-06-28/). A day after dismissing his cabinet, the police chief of Kenya, Inspector General Japhet Koome, [resigned](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/12/kenya-police-chief-resigns-after-criticism-over-protest-crackdown) amid accusations of using excessive force on protestors. \n\nSee Also\n\n- Wikipedia: [Kenya Finance Bill protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Finance_Bill_protests)<br />\n- The Standard (Kenya newspaper): [Ruto faces tough week amidst calls for his resignation](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001499004/ruto-faces-tough-week-amidst-calls-for-his-resignation)<br />\n- The Standard: [Corruption, unemployment, broken pledges, abductions sunk Ruto ship](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001498951/corruption-unemployment-broken-pledges-abductions-sunk-ruto-ship)" }, { "id": 29168, "title": "Before Election Day, will Kamala Harris appear on the Joe Rogan podcast?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": 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"nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29072, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-24T13:35:17.617261Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T00:44:42.270282Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on December 31, 2024:\n\n48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E \n\nIf this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) \n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control \n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine \n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:\n\n- Areas with no coloration\n- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".\n\n- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.", "post_id": 29165, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729865796.876972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.428 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.585 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729865796.876972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.428 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.585 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5720000000000001, 0.428 ], "means": [ 0.43938856856115266 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.45648831029158776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7762998254111527, 0.0, 0.3896433300039505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2282701289894635, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5231083771284929, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2874365810830919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15751375935852208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 16.323857844212696, "peer_score": 14.603707441720779, "coverage": 0.9854984840281583, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9854984840281583, "spot_peer_score": 13.36522182204925, "spot_baseline_score": 19.408705211630256, "baseline_archived_score": 16.323857844212696, "peer_archived_score": 14.603707441720779, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.36522182204925, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 19.408705211630256 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)" }, { "id": 29164, "title": "Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-uk-abolish-the-two-child-benefit-cap-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-24T13:35:17.608432Z", "published_at": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.073875Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T20:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29071, "title": "Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-24T13:35:17.608432Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T20:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T20:16:53.143650Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [two-child benefit cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724071807/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_cap), introduced in 2017, restricts child-related benefits to the first two children in a family. This policy has been widely criticized for its impact on child poverty, with [some experts arguing that abolishing it would be one of the most effective measures to reduce the number of children living in poverty](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072109/https://theconversation.com/the-uks-two-child-limit-on-benefits-is-hurting-the-poorest-families-poverty-experts-on-why-it-should-be-abolished-223371). Despite these arguments, the current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has [opposed scrapping the cap, citing financial constraints](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072421/https://news.sky.com/story/government-cannot-commit-to-scrapping-two-child-benefit-cap-without-knowing-how-to-fund-it-says-minister-13183621).\n\n[The Labour Party recently suspended seven MPs who defied the party line by voting against the government on this issue](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072620/https://news.sky.com/story/who-are-the-seven-rebel-mps-suspended-by-labour-over-two-child-benefit-cap-vote-13184018). This internal conflict highlights the ongoing debate within the party and the broader political landscape.\n\nNonetheless, [according to a recent YouGov poll, 60% of the general public, including 50% of Labour supporters, oppose lifting the cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072925/https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion). This public sentiment adds another layer of complexity to the policy’s future.\n\nThe removal of the two-child benefit cap could happen via a standalone bill passed by Parliament, [or as part of a finance bill approved by the House of Commons that takes place after the announcement of a government budget](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724144254/https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/budgets).", "resolution_criteria": "The UK government must officially abolish the two-child benefit cap before January 1, 2025, for the question to resolve as **Yes**. The cap must be removed in its entirety by this date, not merely announced as a future policy to be implemented. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThe abolition must be confirmed through an official government announcement, for example from the official [UK Parliament](https://bills.parliament.uk/) which keeps a record of parliamentary bills.", "fine_print": "Anything below an official, complete abolishment of the two-child benefit cap, such as a suspension of it (even if it's an indefinite suspension), an increase in exemptions to it, or an increase in the cap to above 2 children, will not count.", "post_id": 29164, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729865822.284522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.053333333333333344 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.185 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729865822.284522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.053333333333333344 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.185 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.13156961278942456 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.31000350982900177, 0.16103927879919655, 1.5376474257604023, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2564129678718277, 0.0902215738421042, 1.263300500251177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 1.2209339082792732, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2477683486285176, 0.0, 1.3044152340671014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.34078605066419, "peer_score": 4.6588252015125375, "coverage": 0.9852629497454121, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9852629497454121, "spot_peer_score": 5.42439529574725, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 81.34078605066419, "peer_archived_score": 4.6588252015125375, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.42439529574725, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [two-child benefit cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724071807/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_cap), introduced in 2017, restricts child-related benefits to the first two children in a family. This policy has been widely criticized for its impact on child poverty, with [some experts arguing that abolishing it would be one of the most effective measures to reduce the number of children living in poverty](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072109/https://theconversation.com/the-uks-two-child-limit-on-benefits-is-hurting-the-poorest-families-poverty-experts-on-why-it-should-be-abolished-223371). Despite these arguments, the current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has [opposed scrapping the cap, citing financial constraints](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072421/https://news.sky.com/story/government-cannot-commit-to-scrapping-two-child-benefit-cap-without-knowing-how-to-fund-it-says-minister-13183621).\n\n[The Labour Party recently suspended seven MPs who defied the party line by voting against the government on this issue](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072620/https://news.sky.com/story/who-are-the-seven-rebel-mps-suspended-by-labour-over-two-child-benefit-cap-vote-13184018). This internal conflict highlights the ongoing debate within the party and the broader political landscape.\n\nNonetheless, [according to a recent YouGov poll, 60% of the general public, including 50% of Labour supporters, oppose lifting the cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072925/https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion). This public sentiment adds another layer of complexity to the policy’s future.\n\nThe removal of the two-child benefit cap could happen via a standalone bill passed by Parliament, [or as part of a finance bill approved by the House of Commons that takes place after the announcement of a government budget](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724144254/https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/budgets)." }, { "id": 29163, "title": "Will JD Vance cease to be Donald Trump's running mate before November 5, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jd-vance-cease-to-be-donald-trumps-running-mate-before-november-5-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-24T13:35:17.474701Z", "published_at": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.862892Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T18:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29070, "title": "Will JD Vance cease to be Donald Trump's running mate before November 5, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-24T13:35:17.474701Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T18:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T18:14:48.135284Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 31, 1972, the Democratic nominee for vice president, Thomas Eagleton, withdrew his candidacy. Information had come out that in the 1960s he had received electrical shock treatments for what was described at the time as nervous exhaustion and depression. This is an example of the unknown unknowns that can change the course of history.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if JD Vance ceases to be the Republican Party's official candidate for Vice President in the 2024 cycle, for any reason, before November 5, 2024. 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It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the final trading day of November 2024 is higher than that of the final trading day of October 2024.", "fine_print": "The \"close\" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.", "post_id": 29162, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729865866.455711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5750000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729865866.455711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5750000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6347805919666737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34467871740862843, 0.04423342207722153, 0.30680358896123394, 0.33432944568041745, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.6414957723282723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 2.3490459276597213, 1.0791219071551654, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.9134389029481002, 1.1421915526326634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 38.22418208918247, "peer_score": 3.043881229435218, "coverage": 0.9847707688891225, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9847707688891225, "spot_peer_score": 2.540209114801315, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 38.22418208918247, "peer_archived_score": 3.043881229435218, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.540209114801315, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. 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We are nonpartisan and independent.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the VoteHub Project's Early Voting Tracker, which can be accessed [here](https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker), with the page for Pennsylvania selected, at least 66.7% of the ballot returns shown in the state were from voters registered as Democrats, when the page is accessed by Metaculus on or after October 31, 2024. If it the number does not meet that threshold, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until November 4, 2024, at which point this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 29161, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729865889.114316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729865889.114316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5700000000000001, 0.43 ], "means": [ 0.5103793887719144 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.1774973272062352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34352598526839895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 1.7462504723962555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8319507895777383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.766338005925373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3857521552669111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.157224134689335, "peer_score": 48.16981154103192, "coverage": 0.9845763889920931, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9845763889920931, "spot_peer_score": 43.088354248313806, "spot_baseline_score": 18.903382439001714, "baseline_archived_score": 14.157224134689335, "peer_archived_score": 48.16981154103192, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 43.088354248313806, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 18.903382439001714 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "VoteHub [describes itself](https://about.votehub.us/) as \"an election media organization that aims to provide top-notch, innovative coverage in three key areas: election reporting at a detailed level and in real time, public opinion survey aggregations, and analysis on election results and trends. We are nonpartisan and independent.\"" }, { "id": 29160, "title": "Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-december-31-2024-will-tech-crunch-report-new-layoffs-at-google-or-alphabet", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-24T13:35:17.457775Z", "published_at": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.843097Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T18:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29067, "title": "Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?", "created_at": "2024-10-24T13:35:17.457775Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T18:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T18:46:28.709799Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google is most recently listed in July 2024, with the blurb saying, \"Is reportedly making large cuts globally across several of its Cloud teams, including teams focused on sustainability, consulting and partner engineering.\" Google has also been mentioned in May, April, and January.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/11/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Google (or Alphabet) has layoffs following the launch of this question and before December 31, 2024. To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on December 31, 2024, and see if Google or Alphabet appears for October 2024, November 2024, or December 2024. If Google or Alphabet are not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "As the parent company of Google, Alphabet is an acceptable synonym for Google. Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.\n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Google or Alphabet. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.\n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**.", "post_id": 29160, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729865909.983882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729865909.983882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6041233241498325 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36314895615892373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3890773170479568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7802002747425575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29066, "title": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-24T13:35:17.452107Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T19:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T20:10:19.388361Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves as Yes if at least 200 Benin bronzes that were formerly owned by the British Museum physically return to Nigeria before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29159, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729865935.495681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05833333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729865935.495681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05833333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07077074754366831 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5123307444416587, 0.9885276636778757, 0.46014234657428416, 0.2358265416482139, 0.7245323220266606, 4.381382234806981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.21120929621028445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.4231735781853053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.6285251867510886, "coverage": 0.984161732464477, "baseline_score": 90.71952249693884, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.984161732464477, "spot_peer_score": 2.8731558396144474, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "peer_archived_score": 3.6285251867510886, "baseline_archived_score": 90.71952249693884, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.8731558396144474, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections." }, { "id": 29145, "title": "Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?", "short_title": "Will XEC variant reach ≥ 50% of variants by Jan 5, 2025?", "url_title": "Will XEC variant reach ≥ 50% of variants by Jan 5, 2025?", "slug": "will-xec-variant-reach-50-of-variants-by-jan-5-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-24T00:49:35.427499Z", "published_at": "2024-10-31T20:58:45.733380Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.359523Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-31T20:58:45.733378Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-03T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-03T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-04T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-08T02:29:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T09:59:55.528455Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T09:59:55.528455Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29055, "title": "Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-24T00:49:35.427582Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-05T10:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-05T10:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-04T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-08T02:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-08T02:31:56.017962Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-03T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-03T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Another new COVID variant is rapidly [growing](https://www.goerie.com/story/news/2024/10/22/what-is-covid-19-variant-xec-spreading-in-pennsylvania/75794702007/) in the United States, the XEC variant, which is estimated at 10.7% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending October 12, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). This this is a sharp increase from the previous two-week period when it was 2.3%, though still a distant second to KP.3.1.1, a [descendant](https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/3-things-to-know-about-xec-the-latest-covid-strain) of the FLiRT variants, which is at 57.2% according to the Nowcast (41.2% as of the latest weighted estimate). Results from [one recent study](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.10.16.618773v1) \"suggest that XEC has the potential to outcompete the other major lineage including KP.3.1.1.\"\r\n\r\nAt the time of this question, CDC estimates variant proportions using two-week periods, using two different calculations: weighted estimates and Nowcast estimates. According [to CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions):\r\n\r\n>Weighted estimates (provided for all two-week periods except the most recent two, two-week periods) are variant proportions that are based on empirical (observed) genomic sequencing data. These estimates are not available for the most recent two-week periods because of the time it takes to generate the sequencing data, including sample collection, specimen treatment, shipping, analysis, and upload into public databases.\r\n\r\n>Lineages with weighted estimates less than 1% of all circulating variants are combined with their parent lineage. When the weighted estimate of a lineage crosses the 1% threshold and has substitutions in the spike protein that could affect vaccine efficacy, transmission, or severity, it may be separated from its parent lineage and displayed on its own in the variant proportions data.\r\n\r\nIn contrast:\r\n\r\n>Nowcast estimates (provided for the most recent two two-week periods when the \"Nowcast on\" option is selected below) are model-based projections of variant proportions for the most recent two-week periods to enable timely public health action. CDC uses the Nowcast to forecast variant proportions before the weighted estimates are available for a given two-week period.\r\n\r\nDue to the greater reliability, verifiability, and empirical basis of the Weighted estimate, this question resolves based on that figure.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if CDC's [variant proportions page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) shows a weighted estimate for all XEC variants in the United States of 50% or more of the variants sequence in any period ending before January 5, 2025. If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Any subsequent revisions to the data after the question is resolved as **No** will not be considered. \r\n\r\nCDC currently reports two week periods, which will be used unless the reporting period changes. If the reporting period changes, the new reporting period will be used. If multiple reporting periods are available, the one nearest to the two week period will be used, as determined by Metaculus.\r\n\r\nThis question resolves according to the \"Weighted\" estimate and will not use the \"Nowcast\" estimate. \r\n\r\nThe HHS region used will be \"USA\".\r\n\r\nThe central estimate reported will be used.", "post_id": 29145, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735876555.440103, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735876555.440103, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8149300132593078 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 1.0859215942880156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1802973886072212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7380647197842896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3022135829173027, 0.2164335258165257, 0.3526517851691326, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -67.55364381185778, "peer_score": -10.921489614353, "coverage": 0.9999004993319488, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999004993319488, "spot_peer_score": 37.78036685064334, "spot_baseline_score": 33.34237337251918, "baseline_archived_score": -67.55364381185778, "peer_archived_score": -10.921489614353, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.78036685064334, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 33.34237337251918 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 139, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Another new COVID variant is rapidly [growing](https://www.goerie.com/story/news/2024/10/22/what-is-covid-19-variant-xec-spreading-in-pennsylvania/75794702007/) in the United States, the XEC variant, which is estimated at 10.7% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending October 12, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). This this is a sharp increase from the previous two-week period when it was 2.3%, though still a distant second to KP.3.1.1, a [descendant](https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/3-things-to-know-about-xec-the-latest-covid-strain) of the FLiRT variants, which is at 57.2% according to the Nowcast (41.2% as of the latest weighted estimate). Results from [one recent study](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.10.16.618773v1) \"suggest that XEC has the potential to outcompete the other major lineage including KP.3.1.1.\"\r\n\r\nAt the time of this question, CDC estimates variant proportions using two-week periods, using two different calculations: weighted estimates and Nowcast estimates. According [to CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions):\r\n\r\n>Weighted estimates (provided for all two-week periods except the most recent two, two-week periods) are variant proportions that are based on empirical (observed) genomic sequencing data. These estimates are not available for the most recent two-week periods because of the time it takes to generate the sequencing data, including sample collection, specimen treatment, shipping, analysis, and upload into public databases.\r\n\r\n>Lineages with weighted estimates less than 1% of all circulating variants are combined with their parent lineage. When the weighted estimate of a lineage crosses the 1% threshold and has substitutions in the spike protein that could affect vaccine efficacy, transmission, or severity, it may be separated from its parent lineage and displayed on its own in the variant proportions data.\r\n\r\nIn contrast:\r\n\r\n>Nowcast estimates (provided for the most recent two two-week periods when the \"Nowcast on\" option is selected below) are model-based projections of variant proportions for the most recent two-week periods to enable timely public health action. CDC uses the Nowcast to forecast variant proportions before the weighted estimates are available for a given two-week period.\r\n\r\nDue to the greater reliability, verifiability, and empirical basis of the Weighted estimate, this question resolves based on that figure." }, { "id": 29144, "title": "Will Pensacola gas prices fall below $2.70 per gallon by December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Gas prices below $2.70", "url_title": "Gas prices below $2.70", "slug": "gas-prices-below-270", "author_id": 220095, "author_username": "PensacolaForecasts", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-23T21:40:25.630021Z", "published_at": "2024-10-23T21:42:08.218017Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.322809Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-23T21:42:08.218015Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T22:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-23T21:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32554, "name": "The City of Pensacola, Florida", "type": "community", "slug": "pensacola", "description": "This is a forecasting space for topics Pensacola residents care about.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-04_at_4_oY0DWYR.47.21PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 2, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 209468, "username": "Breezer54", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32554, "name": "The City of Pensacola, Florida", "type": "community", "slug": "pensacola", "description": "This is a forecasting space for topics Pensacola residents care about.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-04_at_4_oY0DWYR.47.21PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 2, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 209468, "username": "Breezer54", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 29054, "title": "Will Pensacola gas prices fall below $2.70 per gallon by December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-23T21:40:25.630131Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T21:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-24T21:42:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-24T21:42:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T22:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:39:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:39:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gas prices in Pensacola have been volatile due to recent hurricanes and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Although prices have stabilized at around $2.88 per gallon, further reductions could occur if oil prices remain low or if demand drops.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as “Yes” if AAA Gas Price data records a price below $2.70 per gallon for Pensacola at any point before December 31, 2024. 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Although prices have stabilized at around $2.88 per gallon, further reductions could occur if oil prices remain low or if demand drops." }, { "id": 29125, "title": "Will rapper 50 Cent endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-rapper-50-cent-endorse-donald-trump-in-the-2024-election-before-november-5-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:25.469396Z", "published_at": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.095973Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T13:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29037, "title": "Will rapper 50 Cent endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:25.469396Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T13:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-08T13:10:04.476350Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent): \"Jackson endorsed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the run-up for the 2016 U.S. presidential election.[242] He rejected an offer of $500,000 from the Trump campaign to make an appearance on the candidate's behalf.[243] However, he endorsed Donald Trump in 2020, due to his dislike of Joe Biden's tax plans.[244] A week later, he retracted his endorsement, saying on Twitter \"F--k Donald Trump, I never liked him\",[245] and endorsed Biden.[246]\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if rapper 50 Cent (Curtis James Jackson III) endorses Donald Trump, according to the Wikipedia page [List of Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign endorsements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_2024_presidential_campaign_endorsements) or credible sources in case of other reporting that is not yet reflected on the Wikipedia page. If there is no such public endorsement, this question resolves as **No**. 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