Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1920
{ "count": 6330, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1940", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1900", "results": [ { "id": 30672, "title": "Will New Zealand report greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-new-zealand-report-greater-than-or-equal-to-275-and-less-than-or-equal-to-375-whooping-cough-cases-for-weeks-51-and-52", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.634839Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.466246Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T10:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30438, "title": "Will New Zealand report greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.634839Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T10:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T10:25:31.520390Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of cases reported by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's Pertussis Dashboard for both weeks 51 and 52, when they are posted is greater than or equal to 275 and less than or equal to 375 .", "fine_print": "- Week 51 ends on December 20, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on December 25, 2024. Week 52 ends on December 27, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on January 1, 2025.\r\n- This question will resolve on the first day after January 1, 2025 that data for both weeks are shown on the dashboard. Potential data revisions will not change the resolution. If the relevant numbers are not available on the dashboard before January 7, 2025, Admins may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), as long as their numbers are consistent with the dashboard's numbers.", "post_id": 30672, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325207.313889, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3495698590408122 ], "centers": [ 0.4666666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325207.313889, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3495698590408122 ], "centers": [ 0.4666666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5333333333333334, 0.4666666666666666 ], "means": [ 0.4844555437135269 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.14516866866426206, 1.20606295296282, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26913803645995354, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 1.0959553750398965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9964795882629178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 9.310940439148176, "baseline_score": 7.7407866862734656, "peer_score": 9.606767278693207, "coverage": 0.9944775637625545, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9944775637625545, "spot_peer_score": 10.435289904231508, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 9.310940439148176, "baseline_archived_score": 7.7407866862734656, "peer_archived_score": 9.606767278693207, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.435289904231508 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November." }, { "id": 30671, "title": "Will New Zealand report >375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-new-zealand-report-375-whooping-cough-cases-for-weeks-51-and-52", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.611327Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.102764Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T10:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30437, "title": "Will New Zealand report >375 whooping cough cases for weeks 51 and 52?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.611327Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T10:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T10:31:13.959778Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of cases reported by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's Pertussis Dashboard for both weeks 51 and 52, when they are posted exceeds 375.", "fine_print": "- Week 51 ends on December 20, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on December 25, 2024. Week 52 ends on December 27, 2024, and the data are expected to be posted on January 1, 2025.\r\n- This question will resolve on the first day after January 1, 2025 that data for both weeks are shown on the dashboard. Potential data revisions will not change the resolution. If the relevant numbers are not available on the dashboard before January 7, 2025, Admins may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), as long as their numbers are consistent with the dashboard's numbers.", "post_id": 30671, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325207.921515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28920644568660586 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325207.921515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28920644568660586 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.568006987342848 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.15214964510304518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8593578957264911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9414809885774398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4998545367382436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9715769570268549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": -64.38561897747249, "baseline_score": -50.811054266139436, "peer_score": -9.053980874370302, "coverage": 0.9943107571756399, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9943107571756399, "spot_peer_score": -17.604493896825836, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -64.38561897747249, "baseline_archived_score": -50.811054266139436, "peer_archived_score": -9.053980874370302, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -17.604493896825836 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whooping cough is a serious disease. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whooping_cough):\r\n> Whooping cough also known as pertussis or the 100-day cough, is a highly contagious, vaccine-preventable bacterial disease. Initial symptoms are usually similar to those of the common cold with a runny nose, fever, and mild cough, but these are followed by two or three months of severe coughing fits. Following a fit of coughing, a high-pitched whoop sound or gasp may occur as the person breathes in. The violent coughing may last for 10 or more weeks, hence the phrase \"100-day cough\". The cough may be so hard that it causes vomiting, rib fractures, and fatigue. Children less than one year old may have little or no cough and instead have periods when they cannot breathe.\r\n\r\nOn 22 November 2024, the Ministry of Health of New Zealand [declared](https://www.health.govt.nz/news/whooping-cough-epidemic-declared-across-aotearoa-new-zealand) an epidemic of whooping cough across the country, as cases have been rising with 263 cases over the four weeks from mid October to mid November." }, { "id": 30670, "title": "Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-ceasefire-between-israel-and-lebanonhezbollah-be-active-on-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.587713Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.018383Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T22:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-03T22:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30436, "title": "Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.587713Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-03T22:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-03T22:57:25.746170Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T22:43:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.\n\nOn November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a ceasefire or similar deal that involves the cessation of all military activity between Israel and Hezbollah is active on January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the latest reports from credible sources. If such reports indicate that a ceasefire remains in effect, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If the latest reports indicate that a ceasefire has been violated or is no longer effective as of the resolution date, this question will resolve as **No**. If it is unclear, according to the judgement of Metaculus admins, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 30670, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733259855.130971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733259855.130971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.47035685987043996 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.16099456957167682, 0.1932619357323092, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.794934730355242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9239896352751821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.\n\nOn November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal." }, { "id": 30669, "title": "Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-more-of-trumps-announced-cabinet-picks-drop-out-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.545631Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.208306Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30435, "title": "Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T14:30:02.545631Z", "open_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:26:02.818474Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following his recent electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump has announced all 15 of the federal department heads and 5 more \"Cabinet-level\" officials. Matt Gaetz, who was initially nominated for Attorney General, [withdrew his nomination](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99r2m4y2zro) on November 21, 2024, amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Other nominees, such as [Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/25/nx-s1-5204486/president-elect-trump-reveals-more-people-he-wants-serving-in-his-cabinet) have also faced scrutiny due to various allegations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if after November 27, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, any announced Cabinet member or Cabinet-level official withdraws as a nominee, or Donald Trump or his transition team retracts any nomination.", "fine_print": "- The nomination need not have happened before this question opened. For example, a Cabinet nomination that is announced in December and withdrawn before 2025 would still resolve this question as **Yes**.\n- For purposes of this question we are defining Cabinet and Cabinet-level as the following 26 positions, and any withdrawal of a nomination for any of the positions will resolve this question as **Yes**:\n - Secretary of State\n - Secretary of the Treasury\n - Secretary of Defense\n - Attorney General\n - Secretary of the Interior\n - Secretary of Agriculture\n - Secretary of Commerce\n - Secretary of Labor\n - Secretary of Health and Human Services\n - Secretary of Housing and Urban Development\n - Secretary of Transportation\n - Secretary of Energy\n - Secretary of Education\n - Secretary of Veterans Affairs\n - Secretary of Homeland Security\n - White House Chief of Staff\n - Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency\n - Director of the Office of Management and Budget\n - Director of National Intelligence\n - Director of the Central Intelligence Agency\n - United States Trade Representative\n - Ambassador to the United Nations\n - Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers\n - Administrator of the Small Business Administration\n - Science Advisor to the President\n - Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy", "post_id": 30669, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733325208.510548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2711199028127283 ], "centers": [ 0.5208333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733325208.510548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2711199028127283 ], "centers": [ 0.5208333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47916666666666663, 0.5208333333333334 ], "means": [ 0.4979672264151998 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26077713707599026, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.5382239609984887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20819750915076435, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7449467310887843, 0.22042859672213486, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.527677027563428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.422250863460376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5885690464613618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 2.8789905696274833, "peer_score": -1.4688194238629981, "coverage": 0.9939348487500792, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9939348487500792, "spot_peer_score": -2.8606162154983, "spot_baseline_score": -6.140054466414342, "baseline_archived_score": 2.8789905696274833, "peer_archived_score": -1.4688194238629981, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.8606162154983, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -6.140054466414342 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following his recent electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump has announced all 15 of the federal department heads and 5 more \"Cabinet-level\" officials. Matt Gaetz, who was initially nominated for Attorney General, [withdrew his nomination](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99r2m4y2zro) on November 21, 2024, amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Other nominees, such as [Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/25/nx-s1-5204486/president-elect-trump-reveals-more-people-he-wants-serving-in-his-cabinet) have also faced scrutiny due to various allegations." }, { "id": 30651, "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Musk double the wealth of 2nd richest before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Musk double the wealth of 2nd richest before 2026?", "slug": "will-musk-double-the-wealth-of-2nd-richest-before-2026", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-03T05:53:02.565270Z", "published_at": "2024-12-03T20:16:24.272556Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T04:28:17.372936Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-03T20:16:24.272554Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-02T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-04T20:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30419, "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-12-03T05:53:02.565653Z", "open_time": "2024-12-04T20:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-08T20:16:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-08T20:16:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-02T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-02T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It is rare for the richest person or the richest family to double the wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates achieved this [in 1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#1999) when he reached $90 billion while Warren Buffett was at $36 billion, and was close [in 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001). The Walton family also achieved this in 1993 and 1994.\n\nAs of December 2, 2024 the net worth of the five richest individuals in the world is\n- Elon Musk: $353B\n- Jeff Bezos: $231B\n- Mark Zuckerberg: $210B\n- Larry Ellison: $198B\n- Bernard Arnault: $171B", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any single day after December 3, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, Elon Musk's net worth is equal to at least double the second richest person in the world, according to [Bloomberg's Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).", "fine_print": "In case Bloomberg's index is not available, Forbes [similar list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/) may be used.", "post_id": 30651, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763008087.029517, "end_time": 1764208810.101, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763008087.029517, "end_time": 1764208810.101, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.058035920956762306 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.660145378866432, 1.9628870095171007, 0.2085885759349987, 0.03449404060253258, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 311, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It is rare for the richest person or the richest family to double the wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates achieved this [in 1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#1999) when he reached $90 billion while Warren Buffett was at $36 billion, and was close [in 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001). The Walton family also achieved this in 1993 and 1994.\n\nAs of December 2, 2024 the net worth of the five richest individuals in the world is\n- Elon Musk: $353B\n- Jeff Bezos: $231B\n- Mark Zuckerberg: $210B\n- Larry Ellison: $198B\n- Bernard Arnault: $171B" }, { "id": 30626, "title": "Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have under $4.3 trillion in U.S. treasury securities at the end of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-federal-reserves-balance-sheet-have-under-43-trillion-in-us-treasury-securities-at-the-end-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-02T14:08:52.571314Z", "published_at": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.496746Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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To access the returns, go to Quiver Strategies [here](https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/), making sure Strategies Shown is set to \"All Strategies.\" For total return, click 12 Months. The resolution value will be the Total Return displayed for the 12-month period. 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To access Nancy Pelosi's return go to Quiver Strategies [here](https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/). For total return, click 12 Months. The resolution value will be the Total Return displayed for the 12-month period. 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To access Nancy Pelosi's return go to Quiver Strategies [here](https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/). For total return, click 12 Months. The resolution value will be the Total Return displayed for the 12-month period. To find out the return of the S&P 500, go to Yahoo Finance [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/). Divide the closing price of the S&P 500 on the final trading day of December by the \"Adj Close\" price shown for December 29, 2023, then subtract 1 and multiply by 100%..", "fine_print": "Please note that the Quiver number used for resolution is not the CAGR value, which is the compound annual growth rate since Quiver Quantitative's Backtest Start Date", "post_id": 30619, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733233120.568222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5401076871890564 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733233120.568222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5401076871890564 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.594579875626836 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.3393806732212451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.9640744042678477, 0.07073615502467667, 0.7821211939703921, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.624186232367012, 0.620502543612061, 2.1144012855177166, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.224156646299226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1543744415791499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 33.34237337251918, "baseline_score": 34.96436736200789, "peer_score": 1.6491222273509423, "coverage": 0.9868905103703339, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9868905103703339, "spot_peer_score": 2.6430366269702827, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 33.34237337251918, "baseline_archived_score": 34.96436736200789, "peer_archived_score": 1.6491222273509423, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.6430366269702827 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Motley Fool: [Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Nearly Tripled the S&P 500's Returns in 2023: Here Are the Stocks She's Been Buying](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/04/28/former-house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-nearly-tripled-t/)" }, { "id": 30618, "title": "Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat Berkshire Hathaway in 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nancy-pelosis-stock-portfolio-beat-berkshire-hathaway-in-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-02T14:08:51.860132Z", "published_at": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.140317Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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To access Nancy Pelosi's return go to Quiver Strategies [here](https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/). For total return, click 12 Months. The resolution value will be the Total Return displayed for the 12-month period. To find out the return of Berkshire Hathaway's A shares, go to Yahoo Finance [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRK-A/history/). 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Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors?\r\n\r\n\"The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports in its preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number for November 2024 a change in total nonfarm payroll employment that is an increase of greater than or equal to 175,000.", "fine_print": "The BLS [expects](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) to release this number on December 6, 2024. 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Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors?\r\n\r\n\"The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month.\"" }, { "id": 30593, "title": "Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?", "short_title": "Lebanese President elected January 9, 2025?", "url_title": "Lebanese President elected January 9, 2025?", "slug": "lebanese-president-elected-january-9-2025", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-12-01T17:42:32.480437Z", "published_at": "2024-12-18T01:32:44.417880Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.090965Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-18T01:32:44.417878Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-10T03:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-12-19T01:31:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30371, "title": "Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-12-01T17:42:32.480806Z", "open_time": "2024-12-19T01:31:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-23T01:31:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-23T01:31:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-10T03:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T10:01:39.735160Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lebanese politics works on a [confessional basis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taif_Agreement), where legislative seats and executive positions are allocated to various ethnoreligious groups. The Presidency is always held by a Maronite Christian; however, the country's volatile political and military landscape has often made the election less than smooth.\n\nIt took six months to elect a President in [2007-08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Lebanese_presidential_election) and 2.5 years in [2014-16](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–2016_Lebanese_presidential_election). The six-year term of the President eventually elected in that process, Michel Aoun, ended in October 2022. Several attempts to elect a successor have failed to reach a quorum, as a majority of Lebanon's 128 MPs is required for election.\n\nIn the wake of the ceasefire between Israel and the militia/party Hezbollah, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has [called a new vote](https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1437340/berri-sets-jan-9-as-date-for-parliamentary-session-to-elect-president.html) for January 9, 2025. Will the country succeed in breaking the deadlock and electing a President?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the January 9, 2025 session of the Parliament of Lebanon elects a President, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If the vote is not held before January 11, 2025, or if it fails to elect a President for any reason (e.g. lack of quorum), the question resolves as **No**. It is immaterial who the newly-elected President is or whether they maintain the norm of the President being a Maronite. Any proclamations of someone being President will not count unless they have won the vote of a majority of Members of Parliament.", "post_id": 30593, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735315133.942831, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735315133.942831, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.30478606054045826 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -55.23846997651173, "peer_score": -9.856706879537011, "coverage": 0.9140756603571663, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9140756603571663, "spot_peer_score": 2.258095811690651, "spot_baseline_score": -20.091269392599642, "baseline_archived_score": -55.23846997651173, "peer_archived_score": -9.856706879537011, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.258095811690651, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -20.091269392599642 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lebanese politics works on a [confessional basis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taif_Agreement), where legislative seats and executive positions are allocated to various ethnoreligious groups. The Presidency is always held by a Maronite Christian; however, the country's volatile political and military landscape has often made the election less than smooth.\n\nIt took six months to elect a President in [2007-08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Lebanese_presidential_election) and 2.5 years in [2014-16](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–2016_Lebanese_presidential_election). The six-year term of the President eventually elected in that process, Michel Aoun, ended in October 2022. Several attempts to elect a successor have failed to reach a quorum, as a majority of Lebanon's 128 MPs is required for election.\n\nIn the wake of the ceasefire between Israel and the militia/party Hezbollah, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has [called a new vote](https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1437340/berri-sets-jan-9-as-date-for-parliamentary-session-to-elect-president.html) for January 9, 2025. Will the country succeed in breaking the deadlock and electing a President?" }, { "id": 30583, "title": "Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?", "short_title": "Heat Wave Kills at Least One Million Before 2050?", "url_title": "Heat Wave Kills at Least One Million Before 2050?", "slug": "heat-wave-kills-at-least-one-million-before-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-29T22:22:04.558358Z", "published_at": "2024-12-09T15:05:13.538095Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T07:03:29.725959Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-09T15:05:13.538093Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-12-10T15:04:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30355, "title": "Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?", "created_at": "2024-11-29T22:22:04.558804Z", "open_time": "2024-12-10T15:04:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-14T15:04:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-14T15:04:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In his 2020 science fiction novel *[The Ministry for the Future](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future)*, author Kim Stanley Robinson describes a deadly heat wave in India that kills 20 million people. In [an interview](https://slate.com/technology/2021/08/ministry-for-the-future-first-chapter-kim-stanley-robinson-interview.html), Robinson described his motivation as follows:\n\n>In 2018, I read some articles in the scientific literature describing the danger to human bodies of “wet-bulb 35” temperatures, that being an index of high heat and high humidity in combination. High-enough combinations can be fatal for people unprotected by air conditioning, which isn’t always available. Such heat waves were already happening, and were sure to become more frequent and more long-lasting.\n> \n>This finding put new urgency into humanity’s need to decarbonize as fast as possible. People arguing that we could just adapt to any rise in global average temperature had missed a crucial fact. To me this news seemed like something that needed to be pointed out in a vivid way. Thus the beginning of my book.\n\n[Other](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-65299807) [reporting](https://slate.com/technology/2021/07/climate-change-wet-bulb-temperature.html) and [opinion pieces](https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/3/27/extreme-heat-is-the-silent-assassin-of-climate-change) have taken the threat of deadlier heat waves seriously due to climate change, though 20 million deaths in a short span would be orders of magnitude larger than has been previously reported.\n\nWhile a heat wave with that many deaths is speculative, climate change has made future heat waves likelier. [According to a Vox article on the subject](https://www.vox.com/22538401/texas-heat-wave-weather-definition-record-temperature-climate-change):\n\n>The key metric here is known as the wet-bulb temperature, where a thermometer is wrapped in a damp cloth, revealing the lowest temperature achievable by evaporative cooling (i.e., sweating) under a given set of heat and humidity conditions. The upper limit wet-bulb temperature for human survival is 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius), during which even standing in the shade with unlimited water can be life-threatening.\n> \n>Since 1979, these dangerous conditions have become twice as common in several regions of the world, including South Asia and the Persian Gulf, researchers [found](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838) in 2020. They warned that further warming this century could render many of the most densely populated parts of the world uninhabitable during the hottest times of year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2050, one million deaths have occurred in the span of 30 days or less that credible sources have reported to be due to a heat wave. Metaculus may wait up to two years after a potentially qualifying heat wave for investigations and reporting to complete in order to assess whether a heat wave killed at least one million people, and that two year period may extend past the resolution date, if necessary.", "fine_print": "* The deaths must be a direct result of excessive heat acting on humans. Indirect effects, such as fires, violent conflict, or famine, do not count.\n* If reporting on deaths is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of initial reporting is in doubt.", "post_id": 30583, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761462198.76568, "end_time": 1786596738.632, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761462198.76568, "end_time": 1786596738.632, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.41351157650809983 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09630553750946041, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.1931631096564595, 0.0, 0.08192406722053863, 0.34429275062741416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8211966440574795, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.5146704894330771, 0.6134675762751818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.791569387092605 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In his 2020 science fiction novel *[The Ministry for the Future](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_for_the_Future)*, author Kim Stanley Robinson describes a deadly heat wave in India that kills 20 million people. In [an interview](https://slate.com/technology/2021/08/ministry-for-the-future-first-chapter-kim-stanley-robinson-interview.html), Robinson described his motivation as follows:\n\n>In 2018, I read some articles in the scientific literature describing the danger to human bodies of “wet-bulb 35” temperatures, that being an index of high heat and high humidity in combination. High-enough combinations can be fatal for people unprotected by air conditioning, which isn’t always available. Such heat waves were already happening, and were sure to become more frequent and more long-lasting.\n> \n>This finding put new urgency into humanity’s need to decarbonize as fast as possible. People arguing that we could just adapt to any rise in global average temperature had missed a crucial fact. To me this news seemed like something that needed to be pointed out in a vivid way. Thus the beginning of my book.\n\n[Other](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-65299807) [reporting](https://slate.com/technology/2021/07/climate-change-wet-bulb-temperature.html) and [opinion pieces](https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/3/27/extreme-heat-is-the-silent-assassin-of-climate-change) have taken the threat of deadlier heat waves seriously due to climate change, though 20 million deaths in a short span would be orders of magnitude larger than has been previously reported.\n\nWhile a heat wave with that many deaths is speculative, climate change has made future heat waves likelier. [According to a Vox article on the subject](https://www.vox.com/22538401/texas-heat-wave-weather-definition-record-temperature-climate-change):\n\n>The key metric here is known as the wet-bulb temperature, where a thermometer is wrapped in a damp cloth, revealing the lowest temperature achievable by evaporative cooling (i.e., sweating) under a given set of heat and humidity conditions. The upper limit wet-bulb temperature for human survival is 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius), during which even standing in the shade with unlimited water can be life-threatening.\n> \n>Since 1979, these dangerous conditions have become twice as common in several regions of the world, including South Asia and the Persian Gulf, researchers [found](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838) in 2020. They warned that further warming this century could render many of the most densely populated parts of the world uninhabitable during the hottest times of year." }, { "id": 30580, "title": "Will Tesla increase its quarterly vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024 on a year-over-year basis?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tesla-increase-its-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries-in-q4-2024-on-a-year-over-year-basis", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:12.090377Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.808142Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30353, "title": "Will Tesla increase its quarterly vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024 on a year-over-year basis?", "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:12.090377Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T23:27:37.807105Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. 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