Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1940
{ "count": 6330, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1960", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1920", "results": [ { "id": 30579, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?", "short_title": "End of year passenger volume up 2024?", "url_title": "End of year passenger volume up 2024?", "slug": "end-of-year-passenger-volume-up-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.909260Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.400346Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:29:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30352, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?", "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.909260Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T23:31:41.911897Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "2023 was the [busiest travel year ever](https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/2023-numbers-more-flights-fewer-cancellations-more-consumer-protections), with very low cancellation rates, from a historical perspective.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the 7-day period from December 25, 2024 to December 31, 2024 exceeds the 7-day period from December 25, 2023 to December 31, 2023. The resolution source is the TSA checkpoint travel numbers, which can be found at [this link](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes) for 2024. The archived 2023 TSA passenger volume numbers can be found [here](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes/2023).\n\nThe 7 days from December 25, 2023, through December 31, 2023, had total daily passenger numbers summing up to 17,307,363. Therefore, this question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the period of December 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024 exceeds 17,307,363 and resolves as **No** if it is less than or equal to 17,307,363.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the data is posted and accessed by Metaculus Admins. However, if there are delays then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30579, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732978015.895725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8022999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732978015.895725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8022999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.1977000000000001, 0.8022999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.7969649308788396 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44347863994503, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.7944300561251583, 0.0, 1.317698936494148, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 3.5324146956840483, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2593830684343312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.1654003605485, "peer_score": 1.0614878842654438, "coverage": 0.9943276320728993, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9943276320728993, "spot_peer_score": -0.1942379373763254, "spot_baseline_score": 68.22137023704201, "baseline_archived_score": 70.1654003605485, "peer_archived_score": 1.0614878842654438, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.1942379373763254, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 68.22137023704201 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "2023 was the [busiest travel year ever](https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/2023-numbers-more-flights-fewer-cancellations-more-consumer-protections), with very low cancellation rates, from a historical perspective." }, { "id": 30578, "title": "Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on December 20, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-median-person-on-bloombergs-billionaires-index-be-from-the-united-states-on-december-20-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.896237Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.966124Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T21:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30351, "title": "Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on December 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.896237Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T21:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-20T22:01:06.394583Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Nomember 22, 2024, of the 10 individuals ranked 246-255 on Bloomberg's list, 6 were from the United States. On the entire list, 190 out of 500 indivduals were from the United States.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 250th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) is listed as being from the United States, when accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after December 20, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading). It resolves as **No** if the 250th-ranked person is from any other country.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the \"median\" from the question's title is defined as the 250th ranked person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, no matter how many are on the list.\n\nIf the list contains fewer than 250 people on the resolution date, this question will be resolved as the last person on the list. If it contains more than 500 people, the median will still be considered the 250th. If it contains 251-499 people, the median will still be considered the 250th ranked.\n\nIf Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). ", "post_id": 30578, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732978016.573525, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732978016.573525, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6747601422639904 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.22004384387020756, 1.379743335940027, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.8832164324236116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.08149347530775214, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6827828764765234, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 1.135624538603948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 35.9986808741844, "peer_score": 4.850140472473957, "coverage": 0.9912910312607333, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9912910312607333, "spot_peer_score": 4.322848491943746, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 35.9986808741844, "peer_archived_score": 4.850140472473957, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.322848491943746, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Nomember 22, 2024, of the 10 individuals ranked 246-255 on Bloomberg's list, 6 were from the United States. On the entire list, 190 out of 500 indivduals were from the United States." }, { "id": 30577, "title": "Will marijuana still be listed as a US Schedule I controlled substance on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-marijuana-still-be-listed-as-a-us-schedule-i-controlled-substance-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.882955Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.131086Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30350, "title": "Will marijuana still be listed as a US Schedule I controlled substance on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.882955Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:52:16.904320Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/): \n\n>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) signed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in the Federal Register. This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, on December 31, 2024, marijuana is listed as a schedule I drug in the US according to Wikipedia's list, which can be currently accessed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Schedule_I_controlled_substances_(U.S.)). If marijuana is not on the list, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome. ", "post_id": 30577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732978017.255669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732978017.255669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.7751636024495565 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.07095202666684558, 0.36100162675369646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.878660589730987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.12956882963116872, 0.0, 0.4614175669863757, 0.2748574657272404, 1.0, 1.9560056246007491, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.99029041109678, "peer_score": 16.603277835418105, "coverage": 0.9886296614342268, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9886296614342268, "spot_peer_score": 19.687526303307937, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "baseline_archived_score": 75.99029041109678, "peer_archived_score": 16.603277835418105, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.687526303307937, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/): \n\n>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) signed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in the Federal Register. This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.\n" }, { "id": 30576, "title": "Will SpaceX fail to make any new posts on its Updates page before January 1, 2025? ", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spacex-fail-to-make-any-new-posts-on-its-updates-page-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.867100Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.550238Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30349, "title": "Will SpaceX fail to make any new posts on its Updates page before January 1, 2025? ", "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.867100Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:23:11.091881Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of November 22, 2024, SpaceX's most recent post was timestamped September 10, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if no new posts appear at SpaceX's Updates page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.spacex.com/updates/), timestamped after the close of this question and before January 1, 2025. If there is such a post, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.", "post_id": 30576, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732978018.057835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.408 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732978018.057835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.408 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.725, 0.275 ], "means": [ 0.3105410024741498 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.87337965761525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2398926763954295, 0.18526809390665838, 0.44071068269949837, 0.20410203261308407, 0.21228082485103633, 0.7942422980859573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.5513208912287226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6065236578736412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -84.04631976824724, "peer_score": 32.25327333220006, "coverage": 0.9882124029403483, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9882124029403483, "spot_peer_score": 30.383739081648088, "spot_baseline_score": -86.24964762500649, "baseline_archived_score": -84.04631976824724, "peer_archived_score": 32.25327333220006, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.383739081648088, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -86.24964762500649 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of November 22, 2024, SpaceX's most recent post was timestamped September 10, 2024." }, { "id": 30575, "title": "Will the lowest temperature recorded in Anchorage, Alaska during the entire month of December 2024 be lower than the lowest temperature recorded in Chicago, IL for the month?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-lowest-temperature-recorded-in-anchorage-alaska-during-the-entire-month-of-december-2024-be-lower-than-the-lowest-temperature-recorded-in-chicago-il-for-the-month", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.836523Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.170493Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30348, "title": "Will the lowest temperature recorded in Anchorage, Alaska during the entire month of December 2024 be lower than the lowest temperature recorded in Chicago, IL for the month?", "created_at": "2024-11-29T13:06:11.836523Z", "open_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T20:18:09.124121Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The last time this occured was in December 2017, when the lowest temperature recorded in the Chicago weather station during the month was -3 F, while the lowest recorded at the Anchorage weather station was 5 F. It almost occurred in December 2022, when Chicago recorded -9 F on December 23rd; however, Anchorage reached -12 on December 20th. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the lowest temperature at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport weather station, reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PANC&network=AK_ASOS) for the month of December 2024, is lower than the lowest temperature at the Chicago, IL Midway Airport weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MDW&network=IL_ASOS) for the month.", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendars posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30575, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732978018.721236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5008 ], "centers": [ 0.667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732978018.721236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5008 ], "centers": [ 0.667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33299999999999996, 0.667 ], "means": [ 0.6128745097533351 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9438376849703078, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.8426461479065313, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.35033622771640044, 0.28854181316482036, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.14821665447683088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.986215580408221, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -61.82855790504217, "peer_score": -16.394769781862948, "coverage": 0.9875899114818486, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9875899114818486, "spot_peer_score": -5.561000368141808, "spot_baseline_score": -58.640591759082504, "baseline_archived_score": -61.82855790504217, "peer_archived_score": -16.394769781862948, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.561000368141808, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -58.640591759082504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The last time this occured was in December 2017, when the lowest temperature recorded in the Chicago weather station during the month was -3 F, while the lowest recorded at the Anchorage weather station was 5 F. It almost occurred in December 2022, when Chicago recorded -9 F on December 23rd; however, Anchorage reached -12 on December 20th. 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If it is less than that, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30540, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732805043.655388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45239999999999997 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732805043.655388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45239999999999997 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3744993945974845 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 1.779843379000425, 0.46211900267680595, 0.6006437015635668, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 1.097078341557532, 0.0, 0.189258149167515, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.8546876299998948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 1.3844015774009883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 37.68641469901736, "peer_score": 5.435685877211666, "coverage": 0.9900410353944258, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9900410353944258, "spot_peer_score": 5.201145479511176, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 37.68641469901736, "peer_archived_score": 5.435685877211666, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.201145479511176, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to 538, its approval tracker is \"An updating calculation of the president's approval rating, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.\"" }, { "id": 30539, "title": "Will the CDC report less than 50 cases of H5N1 in persons tested in the United States before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cdc-report-less-than-50-cases-of-h5n1-in-persons-tested-in-the-united-states-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:55.023194Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.604049Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T19:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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As a result, CDC has been unable to determine the virus's neuraminidase subtype or whether it is likely an N1.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the CDC reports on its website less than 50 human cases of H5N1 in the United States before January 1, 2025, according to its most recently updated publicly-accessible figures. If CDC reports a number of H5N1 cases in the US that is greater than or equal to 50, this question resolves as **No**. At the time of this question, the most recent figure is posted [here](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/php/avian-flu-summary/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html(.", "fine_print": "Please note that the cases must specifically be H5N1 in order to count. Human cases reported by CDC to be H5 that are not listed as the subtype H5N1 will not count.", "post_id": 30539, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732805044.307434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1800583935099759 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732805044.307434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1800583935099759 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.16410690820341092 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6130471785584402, 3.086710393895705, 0.49792822064913145, 0.0, 0.4953774992691955, 1.0747625814662487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6006479073973886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to CDC at the resolution source, \"Several recent A(H5) cases have been reported in the U.S. The CDC has been unable to isolate the virus from the recent human cases. As a result, CDC has been unable to determine the virus's neuraminidase subtype or whether it is likely an N1.\"" }, { "id": 30538, "title": "Will the lowest temperature recorded in Anchorage, Alaska during the entire month of December 2024 be lower than the lowest temperature recorded in Chicago, IL for the month?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-lowest-temperature-recorded-in-anchorage-alaska-during-the-entire-month-of-december-2024-be-lower-than-the-lowest-temperature-recorded-in-chicago-il-for-the-month", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.990486Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.960932Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30318, "title": "Will the lowest temperature recorded in Anchorage, Alaska during the entire month of December 2024 be lower than the lowest temperature recorded in Chicago, IL for the month?", "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.990486Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T20:22:23.602996Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The last time this occured was in December 2017, when the lowest temperature recorded in the Chicago weather station during the month was -3 F, while the lowest recorded at the Anchorage weather station was 5 F. It almost occurred in December 2022, when Chicago recorded -9 F on December 23rd; however, Anchorage reached -12 on December 20th. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the lowest temperature at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport weather station, reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PANC&network=AK_ASOS) for the month of December 2024, exceeds the lowest temperature at the Chicago, IL Midway Airport weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MDW&network=IL_ASOS) for the month.", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendars posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30538, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732805045.068453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.40066666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.6659537063936952 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732805045.068453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.40066666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.6659537063936952 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3340462936063048, 0.6659537063936952 ], "means": [ 0.6186576225657181 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.06953376465286171, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9238200452096865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8383501420032302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 1.041612515980416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09283202621282585, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.6343394661133029, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 1.6221476987420265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -70.8932401655569, "peer_score": -20.482827300488758, "coverage": 0.9871466504865222, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9871466504865222, "spot_peer_score": -6.552524145423197, "spot_baseline_score": -58.188004330129786, "baseline_archived_score": -70.8932401655569, "peer_archived_score": -20.482827300488758, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.552524145423197, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -58.188004330129786 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The last time this occured was in December 2017, when the lowest temperature recorded in the Chicago weather station during the month was -3 F, while the lowest recorded at the Anchorage weather station was 5 F. It almost occurred in December 2022, when Chicago recorded -9 F on December 23rd; however, Anchorage reached -12 on December 20th. " } ] }
