Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1940
{ "count": 5957, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1960", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1920", "results": [ { "id": 29123, "title": "Will Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani be re-elected in Arizona's 6th Congressional District in the 2024 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-republican-congressman-juan-ciscomani-be-re-elected-in-arizonas-6th-congressional-district-in-the-2024-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:25.292037Z", "published_at": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.840906Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-13T19:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29035, "title": "Will Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani be re-elected in Arizona's 6th Congressional District in the 2024 election?", "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:25.292037Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-13T19:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T19:52:38.847194Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Arizona's 6th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_6th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Juan Ciscomani wins the election to the House of Representatives from Arizona's 6th Congressional District in the 2024 US general election. If any other candidate wins, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.", "post_id": 29123, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729779372.271946, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.56125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729779372.271946, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.56125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43875, 0.56125 ], "means": [ 0.6030940856858896 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4061712190803831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2982901541217139, 0.0, 0.0, 1.315307663778165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33428438866071375, 2.7921228618559084, 0.8009954121406234, 0.0, 0.6490564168471212, 0.0, 0.24570865849814374, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.7936688084926814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11919235601565477, 0.0, 0.46493457358021706, 0.0, 0.3325315572279212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.079190543712295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 27.79065174423174, "peer_score": 0.7776810216942701, "coverage": 0.993199990568338, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.993199990568338, "spot_peer_score": -6.076731781313421, "spot_baseline_score": 16.671544496642234, "baseline_archived_score": 27.79065174423174, "peer_archived_score": 0.7776810216942701, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.076731781313421, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 16.671544496642234 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Arizona's 6th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_6th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024." }, { "id": 29122, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before December 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usda-posted-recall-of-boars-head-deli-meat-be-closed-before-december-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:25.287941Z", "published_at": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.409575Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-15T18:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29034, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before December 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:25.287941Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-15T18:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-15T18:59:08.543530Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [the NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/health/boars-head-deli-meat-listeria.html), \"Genome sequencing tests by public health officials in New York and Maryland tied a strain of listeria found in Boar’s Head liverwurst to the bacteria from people who died or fell ill, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The company recalled its liverwurst late in July. Days later, Boar’s Head expanded the recall to cover more than 3,500 tons of meat — including ham and other items made in the Jarratt facility, one of several it operates. Production at the meat processing center in a rural part of the state has been temporarily stopped. Boar’s Head said it was disinfecting the plant and trying to determine the cause of the suspected contamination. Nine elderly people have died and dozens were hospitalized in the worst listeria outbreak in years. Public health experts have expressed worry that those numbers could increase, because symptoms can emerge weeks later. They also noted that consumers might not be aware of the recall, and some of the products do not expire until October.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Boar's Head Provisions Co., Inc., is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/boars-head-provisions-co--expands-recall-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due) is accessed by Metaculus after November 30, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered.", "post_id": 29122, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729779398.296761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.215 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729779398.296761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.215 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.785, 0.215 ], "means": [ 0.29830435283413154 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6019627254324547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 0.0, 0.5476281370563048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 0.848390712889754, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6026025546648617, 0.6571444928584438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.8051158775784195, 0.05797234383343228, 0.0, 0.6284268287892393, 0.0, 0.7800991750591255, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036243652510257116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3445918901109067, 0.06718452183420129, 0.31210550135292425, 0.50843113333871, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.41773359555817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25446741675480405, 0.0, 0.5029882706621958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0773927070098371 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -68.60985679595896, "peer_score": 0.36604386526390115, "coverage": 0.9910265600129408, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9910265600129408, "spot_peer_score": -25.95296524259708, "spot_baseline_score": -121.75914350726268, "baseline_archived_score": -68.60985679595896, "peer_archived_score": 0.36604386526390115, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -25.95296524259708, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -121.75914350726268 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [the NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/health/boars-head-deli-meat-listeria.html), \"Genome sequencing tests by public health officials in New York and Maryland tied a strain of listeria found in Boar’s Head liverwurst to the bacteria from people who died or fell ill, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The company recalled its liverwurst late in July. Days later, Boar’s Head expanded the recall to cover more than 3,500 tons of meat — including ham and other items made in the Jarratt facility, one of several it operates. Production at the meat processing center in a rural part of the state has been temporarily stopped. Boar’s Head said it was disinfecting the plant and trying to determine the cause of the suspected contamination. Nine elderly people have died and dozens were hospitalized in the worst listeria outbreak in years. Public health experts have expressed worry that those numbers could increase, because symptoms can emerge weeks later. They also noted that consumers might not be aware of the recall, and some of the products do not expire until October.\"" }, { "id": 29121, "title": "Will BigBear.AI file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bigbearai-file-for-bankruptcy-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:25.283470Z", "published_at": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.579805Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T19:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29033, "title": "Will BigBear.AI file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:25.283470Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T19:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T19:26:41.928478Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BigBear.ai, which provides AI decision solutions to government and private clients, has run at operating losses since 2020 and in Q1 2024 raised capital by issuing $53.9 million in net new stock. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29121, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729779407.349464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11800000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729779407.349464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11800000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.21927776742240795 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7584485688636057, 1.2800369006474017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.30879969737657076, 0.20751980667052047, 0.10167920618645457, 0.0, 2.2357117164547162, 0.0, 0.7058761934376654, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.9992393290295154, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0222754205359577, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27220264953800805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.65517097506392, "peer_score": 6.2078682346049465, "coverage": 0.9882457289237667, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9882457289237667, "spot_peer_score": 8.509098865070582, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 73.65517097506392, "peer_archived_score": 6.2078682346049465, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.509098865070582, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "BigBear.ai, which provides AI decision solutions to government and private clients, has run at operating losses since 2020 and in Q1 2024 raised capital by issuing $53.9 million in net new stock. " }, { "id": 29120, "title": "Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6.5 billion or more on Monday December 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-500th-richest-person-on-bloombergs-billionaires-index-have-65-billion-or-more-on-monday-december-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:25.278235Z", "published_at": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.568799Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 74, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T18:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29032, "title": "Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6.5 billion or more on Monday December 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:25.278235Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T18:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T18:37:53.889162Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Bloomberg:\n\n>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. Details about the calculations are provided in the net worth analysis on each billionaire’s profile page. The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 500th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) has a net worth of $6.50B or greater when accessed by Metaculus Admins on December 30, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading). ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the 500th-ranked or 500th-richest person on the list is considered to be the poorest person on the list. Therefore if the list contains fewer than 500 people on December 30, 2024, it will resolve based on the poorest person on the list. If the list contains more than 500 people, it will resolve based on the 500th-ranked person. \n\nIf Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on December 30, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). \n\nAdmins resolving this question will not round up. For example., $6.5000B would count, but $6.4999B would not.\n", "post_id": 29120, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729779430.818062, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729779430.818062, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.5698518523829876 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1436582041275718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.0, 0.19976240866306647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7384084466355294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12265078559381062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6531762481724939, 0.8464681131236458, 0.10972487483863327, 0.7130527459887679, 0.12234050309050762, 0.0, 0.15879807646568847, 0.7125676062963124, 0.0, 0.48139273424790213, 0.7593918379920035, 0.12458556497060898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17837564508143805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 1.3231732224227755, 0.0, 0.04583246801941605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977796731925345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06290448966866473 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -55.031878659387836, "peer_score": 13.918339162935148, "coverage": 0.9867748654744136, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9867748654744136, "spot_peer_score": 14.382491799306507, "spot_baseline_score": -43.440282414577496, "baseline_archived_score": -55.031878659387836, "peer_archived_score": 13.918339162935148, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.382491799306507, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -43.440282414577496 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Bloomberg:\n\n>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. 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The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York.\n" }, { "id": 29119, "title": "Will Brian Daboll cease to be the New York Giants head coach before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-brian-daboll-cease-to-be-the-new-york-giants-head-coach-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:25.272060Z", "published_at": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.203786Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29031, "title": "Will Brian Daboll cease to be the New York Giants head coach before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:25.272060Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:27:29.577089Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NJ.com: [Will Giants fire Brian Daboll, Joe Schoen? Keep an eye on this key factor (beyond just losing)](https://www.nj.com/giants/2024/09/will-giants-fire-brian-daboll-joe-schoen-keep-an-eye-on-this-key-factor-beyond-just-losing.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Brian Daboll is no longer head coach of the New York Giants according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the official Cowboys website [coaches roster](https://www.giants.com/team/coaches-roster/). 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.333333, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in exactly 4 games played in the Series, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The World Series is a best-of-7 series, and in the event of an edge case such as the Series being shortened to fewer games or the Series being canceled (as happened [in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_World_Series) due to a player strike) or excessively delayed, this question will resolve as **No** if the Yankees have not both won the World Series and done it in exactly 4 games, before January 1, 2025.", "post_id": 29111, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729779614.253714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12000000000000002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729779614.253714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12000000000000002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 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reporting occurs before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as No.", "fine_print": "Although removals from the index are generally effective immediately in order to forestall frontrunning, this is not a requirement for this question. All that is required is for there to be an announcement or confirmation before January 1, 2025 that Intel will be removed from the DJIA at any point in time. 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"close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29021, "title": "At the end of 2024, will Wikipedia still list Brazil as \"currently\" blocking access to Twitter/X?", "created_at": "2024-10-23T13:06:24.891797Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T20:08:09.859536Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"On August 30, 2024, the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court judge Alexandre de Moraes issued an order requiring Brazillian ISPs to block Twitter due to Elon Musk's refusal to appoint a legal representative of Twitter in Brazil, which was required by Brazilian law.[85] The ban itself came from previous conflicts between Musk and Moraes after Twitter under Musk revoked the suspension of accounts that were previously requested by the government to be blocked for misinformation regarding the 2023 Brazilian Congress attack. Moraes imposed a fine of R$50,000 (US$9,000) per day for anyone in Brazil who accessed Twitter using a virtual private network (VPN), and initially requested the removal of VPN apps from Apple's App Store and Google's Play Store.[86] The President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, supported the ban of Twitter in the country.[87] On September 18, 2024, Twitter began serving its content through Cloudflare for requests originating from Brazil in an attempt to circumvent the ban.[88][89]\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists Twitter (also known as X) as currently blocking Brazil at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or around January 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list Twitter/X as currently being blocked, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome. 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Moraes imposed a fine of R$50,000 (US$9,000) per day for anyone in Brazil who accessed Twitter using a virtual private network (VPN), and initially requested the removal of VPN apps from Apple's App Store and Google's Play Store.[86] The President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, supported the ban of Twitter in the country.[87] On September 18, 2024, Twitter began serving its content through Cloudflare for requests originating from Brazil in an attempt to circumvent the ban.[88][89]\"" }, { "id": 29086, "title": "Will an H5 virus receive an \"emergence\" risk rating categorized as \"high\" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "H5 receives high IRAT emergence risk rating by Jan 1, 2026?", "url_title": "H5 receives high IRAT emergence risk rating by Jan 1, 2026?", "slug": "h5-receives-high-irat-emergence-risk-rating-by-jan-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29002, "title": "Will an H5 virus receive an \"emergence\" risk rating categorized as \"high\" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2024-10-23T10:34:51.432409Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-01T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/national-strategy/influenza-risk-assessment-tool.html):\r\n\r\n>The Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) is an evaluation tool developed by CDC and external influenza experts that assesses the potential pandemic risk posed by influenza A viruses that currently circulate in animals but not in humans.\r\n\r\nThe IRAT evaluates with respect to potential public health impact and emergence--the latter of which is defined as the potential to start spreading easily and efficiently in people, and is the factor that this question asks. To assess this potential for sustained human-to-human spread, researchers examine the following risk elements:\r\n\r\n- Human infections\r\n- Transmission in animal models\r\n- Receptor binding\r\n- Population immunity\r\n- Infections in animals\r\n- Genomic analysis\r\n- Antigenic relatedness\r\n- Global distribution of animals\r\n- Disease severity and pathogenesis\r\n \r\nAs of August 9, 2024, the [published IRAT](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/virus-description.html) potential emergence risk scores ranged from less than 3 (low risk) to 7.5 (upper moderate), The 7.5 was for a strain of H1N1, a Eurasian avian-like swine influenza A(H1N1) (A/swine/Shandong/1207/2016) virus, clade 1C.2.3 and genotype 4. Please see the full H1N1 Virus Report from July of 2020 [here](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/CDC-IRAT-Virus-Report.pdf). The latest H5N1 IRAT emergence risk score is 5.79 from a [Virus Report](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/IRATATexas.pdf) published [August 9, 2024](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.htm) and based on information through June 26, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the Centers for Disease Controls' [Influenza Risk Assessment Tool](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/virus-description.html) (IRAT) provides a weighted risk of potential emergence score characterized as *high* for any H5 influenza virus. This [is defined](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/national-strategy/influenza-risk-assessment-tool.html) as a score greater than or equal to 8.0. \r\n\r\nIf this does not occur before January 1, 2026, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The IRAT currently has the following risk levels with respect to its scores (on a 10-point scale): \r\n\r\n>Low risk is associated with a point score between 1.0 and 3.9;\r\n>Moderate risk is associated with a point score between 4.0-7.9; and,\r\n>High risk is associated with a point score between 8.0-10.0.\r\n\r\nIf the IRAT's scoring methodology changes, this question resolves based on the mathematically equivalent scores. Should it stop using numerical scores, the question resolves based on whether the new terminology corresponds with the current \"high\" risk categorization.\r\n\r\nAn individual \"risk element\" receiving a score of 8.0 or above does not qualify, only the overall weighted risk of potential emergence score qualifies.", "post_id": 29086, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758053739.868118, "end_time": 1760145465.449, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758053739.868118, "end_time": 1760145465.449, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.975, 0.025 ], "means": [ 0.03266408997009571 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43131426209606216, 1.918044686535369, 2.2511307688279123, 0.5588575355221032, 0.32677805160011447, 0.12350679186356914, 1.2478903326239517, 0.7118165837590469, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/national-strategy/influenza-risk-assessment-tool.html):\r\n\r\n>The Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) is an evaluation tool developed by CDC and external influenza experts that assesses the potential pandemic risk posed by influenza A viruses that currently circulate in animals but not in humans.\r\n\r\nThe IRAT evaluates with respect to potential public health impact and emergence--the latter of which is defined as the potential to start spreading easily and efficiently in people, and is the factor that this question asks. To assess this potential for sustained human-to-human spread, researchers examine the following risk elements:\r\n\r\n- Human infections\r\n- Transmission in animal models\r\n- Receptor binding\r\n- Population immunity\r\n- Infections in animals\r\n- Genomic analysis\r\n- Antigenic relatedness\r\n- Global distribution of animals\r\n- Disease severity and pathogenesis\r\n \r\nAs of August 9, 2024, the [published IRAT](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/virus-description.html) potential emergence risk scores ranged from less than 3 (low risk) to 7.5 (upper moderate), The 7.5 was for a strain of H1N1, a Eurasian avian-like swine influenza A(H1N1) (A/swine/Shandong/1207/2016) virus, clade 1C.2.3 and genotype 4. Please see the full H1N1 Virus Report from July of 2020 [here](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/CDC-IRAT-Virus-Report.pdf). The latest H5N1 IRAT emergence risk score is 5.79 from a [Virus Report](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/IRATATexas.pdf) published [August 9, 2024](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.htm) and based on information through June 26, 2024." }, { "id": 29081, "title": "Will erosion mitigation measures at Sharp Point on Santa Rosa Island be approved by the SRIA by July 2025?", "short_title": "Erosion mitigation at Sharp Point approved", "url_title": "Erosion mitigation at Sharp Point approved", "slug": "erosion-mitigation-at-sharp-point-approved", "author_id": 220095, "author_username": "PensacolaForecasts", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T22:47:24.494338Z", "published_at": "2024-10-23T21:27:44.457174Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.857388Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-23T21:27:44.457172Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-23T21:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32554, "name": "The City of Pensacola, Florida", "type": "community", "slug": "pensacola", "description": "This is a forecasting space for topics Pensacola residents care about.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-04_at_4_oY0DWYR.47.21PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 2, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 209468, "username": "Breezer54", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32554, "name": "The City of Pensacola, Florida", "type": "community", "slug": "pensacola", "description": "This is a forecasting space for topics Pensacola residents care about.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-04_at_4_oY0DWYR.47.21PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 2, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 209468, "username": "Breezer54", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 29000, "title": "Will erosion mitigation measures at Sharp Point on Santa Rosa Island be approved by the SRIA by July 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T22:47:24.494422Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T21:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-23T21:45:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-23T21:45:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T06:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Santa Rosa Island Authority (SRIA) is exploring options to combat erosion along Sharp Point, which has damaged both private properties and public beaches. The erosion has accelerated due to hurricanes and natural wear, with proposed solutions including sand replenishment and structural barriers.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as “Yes” if the SRIA board publicly approves any mitigation plan for Sharp Point by July 1, 2025, through official meeting minutes. 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[Many see AI as a solution to the current productivity crisis](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-will-ai-affect-productivity/), and it is in the midst of an ‘[AI Boom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_boom)’, with global spending on AI expected to reach [$632 billion by 2028](https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS52530724), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC). \n\nThis has led to new and rapid advancements in the field. OpenAI, for example, the AI research organization behind ChatGPT, has launched its [‘Strawberry’ AI model](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-launches-new-series-ai-models-solve-hard-problems-2024-09-12/), capable of ‘reasoning’ through tasks and problems rather than generating a quick response. Likewise, the technology giant NVIDIA — a dominant supplier of AI hardware and software — has released its own open-source AI model, [NVLM 1.0](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/nvidia-just-debuted-its-new-open-source-advanced-ai-model-with-state-of-the-art-capabilities-to-take-on-openais-magical-gpt-4o).\n\nWhile AI is therefore seen as an essential tool moving forward, there are also great concerns with the technology. There has been a marked increase in the use of AI to spread disinformation, with [fake images](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/business/media/ai-generated-images.html), [videos](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/technology/artificial-intelligence-training-deepfake.html), and even [fake voice recordings](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68074257), designed to mimic politicians or celebrities, being widely propagated online, especially on [platforms such as X (formerly Twitter)](https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-spread-of-synthetic-media-on-x/) AI is also being utilized for criminal purposes. Gangs in Asia, for instance, are [“[l]everaging technological advances … to produc[e] larger scale and harder to detect fraud, money laundering, underground banking[,] and online scams”](https://www.unodc.org/roseap/en/2024/10/cyberfraud-industry-expands-southeast-asia/story.html), according to Masood Karimipour, a regional representative of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). \n\nAs a result, there has been a push to regulate AI at the government level. The European Union (EU), for example, implemented the [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) which came into force on 1 August 2024, establishing a common regulatory and legal framework for AI within the EU. Likewise, there has been a similar push to regulate AI at a federal level in the United States. In 2022, the White House released its ‘[AI Bill of Rights](https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/ai-bill-of-rights/)’ and, in 2023, President Joe Biden signed [Executive Order 14110](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/), defining the administration’s policy goals regarding AI and directing executive agencies to pursue them. Despite this, the [United States lacks any overarching federal regulation](https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2024/04/existing-and-proposed-federal-ai-regulation-in-the-united-states), meaning AI in the US is currently governed by a mixture of federal and state law, the industry itself, and the judiciary.\n\nGiven that the pace of AI development continues to grow, the question arises as to whether the US government will adopt federal regulations for AI, or whether the [$146 billion industry](https://www.precedenceresearch.com/us-artificial-intelligence-market) will continue under its current patchwork regulatory regime.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the following conditions are met:\n\n - A bill primarily focused on AI regulation - containing specific provisions for the governance, oversight, or regulation of artificial intelligence technologies - has been introduced and passed by both the House of Representatives and the Senate.\n - The bill is signed into law by the President of the United States or becomes law by congressional override of a presidential veto, before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "- The bill must focus on general AI regulation. Broader federal bills that include AI regulations as a secondary focus, or bills specific to a particular domain of AI (e.g., AI in healthcare), do not count.\n- The date the bill takes effect does not matter, as long as it is enacted by January 1, 2026.\n- Only federal bills are considered; other measures, such as Executive Orders, will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 29076, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758068012.190213, "end_time": 1758301203.135, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758068012.190213, "end_time": 1758301203.135, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10497006608388423 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7731858496550612, 1.7618057820520967, 0.09329258471159352, 0.9525522902838268, 1.0030561994272726, 3.7815556097644456, 0.1350166315751149, 0.28794148447432993, 0.4343406735138018, 0.1002933288566214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022471481657050284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03282480256284937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9225774080436027, 0.0, 0.35034195902508225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10592775239849204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18967896317068483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038968642356904164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 381, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US adopt federal AI regulations?\n\nIn the last few years, the speed of artificial intelligence (AI) development has increased exponentially and continues to become ever more sophisticated. [Many see AI as a solution to the current productivity crisis](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-will-ai-affect-productivity/), and it is in the midst of an ‘[AI Boom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_boom)’, with global spending on AI expected to reach [$632 billion by 2028](https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS52530724), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC). \n\nThis has led to new and rapid advancements in the field. OpenAI, for example, the AI research organization behind ChatGPT, has launched its [‘Strawberry’ AI model](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-launches-new-series-ai-models-solve-hard-problems-2024-09-12/), capable of ‘reasoning’ through tasks and problems rather than generating a quick response. Likewise, the technology giant NVIDIA — a dominant supplier of AI hardware and software — has released its own open-source AI model, [NVLM 1.0](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/nvidia-just-debuted-its-new-open-source-advanced-ai-model-with-state-of-the-art-capabilities-to-take-on-openais-magical-gpt-4o).\n\nWhile AI is therefore seen as an essential tool moving forward, there are also great concerns with the technology. There has been a marked increase in the use of AI to spread disinformation, with [fake images](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/business/media/ai-generated-images.html), [videos](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/technology/artificial-intelligence-training-deepfake.html), and even [fake voice recordings](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68074257), designed to mimic politicians or celebrities, being widely propagated online, especially on [platforms such as X (formerly Twitter)](https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-spread-of-synthetic-media-on-x/) AI is also being utilized for criminal purposes. Gangs in Asia, for instance, are [“[l]everaging technological advances … to produc[e] larger scale and harder to detect fraud, money laundering, underground banking[,] and online scams”](https://www.unodc.org/roseap/en/2024/10/cyberfraud-industry-expands-southeast-asia/story.html), according to Masood Karimipour, a regional representative of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). \n\nAs a result, there has been a push to regulate AI at the government level. The European Union (EU), for example, implemented the [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) which came into force on 1 August 2024, establishing a common regulatory and legal framework for AI within the EU. Likewise, there has been a similar push to regulate AI at a federal level in the United States. In 2022, the White House released its ‘[AI Bill of Rights](https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/ai-bill-of-rights/)’ and, in 2023, President Joe Biden signed [Executive Order 14110](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/), defining the administration’s policy goals regarding AI and directing executive agencies to pursue them. Despite this, the [United States lacks any overarching federal regulation](https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2024/04/existing-and-proposed-federal-ai-regulation-in-the-united-states), meaning AI in the US is currently governed by a mixture of federal and state law, the industry itself, and the judiciary.\n\nGiven that the pace of AI development continues to grow, the question arises as to whether the US government will adopt federal regulations for AI, or whether the [$146 billion industry](https://www.precedenceresearch.com/us-artificial-intelligence-market) will continue under its current patchwork regulatory regime." } ] }
