Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1960
{ "count": 6330, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1980", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1940", "results": [ { "id": 30537, "title": "Will the lowest temperature recorded in Miami, FL over the entire month of December 2024 never be lower than the highest temperature recorded in Anchorage Alaska for the month?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-lowest-temperature-recorded-in-miami-fl-over-the-entire-month-of-december-2024-never-be-lower-than-the-highest-temperature-recorded-in-anchorage-alaska-for-the-month", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.958395Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.282625Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30317, "title": "Will the lowest temperature recorded in Miami, FL over the entire month of December 2024 never be lower than the highest temperature recorded in Anchorage Alaska for the month?", "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.958395Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:21:46.168559Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This has not occurred in the past 5 years, although it has come close, such as in 2020 when the lowest temperature recorded in Miami was 47 on December 26, 2020) and the highest temperature recorded in Anchorage was 45 on December 1, 2020.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the lowest temperature at the Miami International Airport weather station, reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MIA&network=FL_ASOS&year=2024&month=11) for the month of December 2024, exceeds the highest temperature at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PANC&network=AK_ASOS) for the month. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendars posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30537, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732805045.774854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732805045.774854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6397800523538932 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44433735784817074, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 1.0, 0.0, 0.1710855545910285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 1.151740807835127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1334980532860931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.5123307444416587, 0.12200872167164427, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6434980052553482, 1.1854237110740986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5392261358259667 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 39.70604769806241, "peer_score": 65.42625984641232, "coverage": 0.9869369683331913, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9869369683331913, "spot_peer_score": 62.049869916381574, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 39.70604769806241, "peer_archived_score": 65.42625984641232, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 62.049869916381574, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This has not occurred in the past 5 years, although it has come close, such as in 2020 when the lowest temperature recorded in Miami was 47 on December 26, 2020) and the highest temperature recorded in Anchorage was 45 on December 1, 2020." }, { "id": 30536, "title": "Will Calin Georgescu win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-calin-georgescu-win-the-second-round-of-the-2024-presidential-election-in-romania", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.926873Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.183994Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T19:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30316, "title": "Will Calin Georgescu win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?", "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.926873Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T19:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T19:38:12.632875Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5283, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/romanian-election-winner-2024/) didn't make it to the second round. The winner of the first round, Calin Georgescu, is titled by [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-election-stunner-who-is-calin-georgescu-marcel-ciolacu/), an ultranationalist far-right candidate. The other candidate, Elena Lasconi, is the leader of the progressive USR party.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if Calin Georgescu wins the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania, based on the official website of the President of Romania or reports by credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30536, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732805046.432685, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3651 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732805046.432685, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3651 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3946608832781668 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4249377485786018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.8215443845241794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.8305036517217669, 1.0707361550246768, 0.0, 0.0, 1.305243599422533, 0.0, 1.2266367396170965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.931273105636328, 0.0, 0.44208209430197104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.08754374207256055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16523072905535055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/romanian-election-winner-2024/) didn't make it to the second round. The winner of the first round, Calin Georgescu, is titled by [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-election-stunner-who-is-calin-georgescu-marcel-ciolacu/), an ultranationalist far-right candidate. The other candidate, Elena Lasconi, is the leader of the progressive USR party." }, { "id": 30535, "title": "Will Elena Lasconi win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elena-lasconi-win-the-second-round-of-the-2024-presidential-election-in-romania", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.871699Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.008213Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T19:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30315, "title": "Will Elena Lasconi win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania?", "created_at": "2024-11-27T15:00:54.871699Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-06T19:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T19:38:31.473454Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-28T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5283, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/romanian-election-winner-2024/) didn't make it to the second round. The winner of the first round, Calin Georgescu, is titled by [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-election-stunner-who-is-calin-georgescu-marcel-ciolacu/), an ultranationalist far-right candidate. The other candidate, Elena Lasconi, is the leader of the progressive USR party.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if Elena Lasconi wins the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania, based on the official website of the President of Romania or reports by credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30535, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732805047.058694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36588136706792 ], "centers": [ 0.424 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732805047.058694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36588136706792 ], "centers": [ 0.424 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5760000000000001, 0.424 ], "means": [ 0.44751030701315536 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24946699768446445, 0.4087506853414205, 1.2030052409478724, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.7786046040762578, 0.0, 0.5260311109720331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.692838069357762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2695393015506253, 0.0, 1.0907795394398383, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.38213595752647456, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/romanian-election-winner-2024/) didn't make it to the second round. The winner of the first round, Calin Georgescu, is titled by [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-election-stunner-who-is-calin-georgescu-marcel-ciolacu/), an ultranationalist far-right candidate. The other candidate, Elena Lasconi, is the leader of the progressive USR party." }, { "id": 30517, "title": "Will New Delhi experience a \"Hazardous\" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?", "short_title": "New Delhi Hazardous AQI for 1/3 of Dec 2024's last 2 weeks?", "url_title": "New Delhi Hazardous AQI for 1/3 of Dec 2024's last 2 weeks?", "slug": "new-delhi-hazardous-aqi-for-13-of-dec-2024s-last-2-weeks", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T19:57:13.265691Z", "published_at": "2024-12-05T06:27:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.202379Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-12-05T06:27:35Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-20T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T22:30:00Z", "open_time": 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"2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32559, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_TqQCKYL.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-12-11T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-03T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-03T20:11:36.362514Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-08T06:50:47.494484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30301, "title": "Will New Delhi experience a \"Hazardous\" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T19:57:13.266062Z", "open_time": "2024-12-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T22:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T00:08:13.141238Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-25T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-20T22:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Airnow](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/):\n\n>The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is EPA's tool for communicating about outdoor air quality and health. The AQI includes six color-coded categories, each corresponding to a range of index values. The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n>EPA establishes an AQI for five major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act. Each of these pollutants has a national air quality standard set by EPA to protect public health:\n\n> - ground-level ozone\n> - particle pollution (also known as particulate matter, including PM2.5 and PM10)\n> - carbon monoxide\n> - sulfur dioxide\n> - nitrogen dioxide\n\nOn November 21, 2024, CNN [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/20/india/delhi-pollution-clinic-smog-climate-intl-hnk/index.html) that New Delhi had the most hazardous air for human health in the world, leading the Delhi Chief Minister to declare a \"medical emergency\" as authorities closed schools and urged people to stay home. On November 20, 2024 the reading for PM2.5, which has been linked to asthma, heart and lung disease, cancer, and cognitive impairment in children, was more than 77 times higher than safe levels set by the WHO.\n\nAt the time of this question, in 2024 year to date 6% of hours have had an AQI classified as Hazardous, 12% of hours have been Very Unhealthy, and 33% Unhealthy. To access the data for 2024 and previous years from 2015 through the present day, please go [here](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) and click on the Historical tab.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 1/3 of the hourly values reported by [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) for the dates December 16, 2024 to December 29, 2024 inclusive are categorized as having a \"Hazardous\" air quality index (AQI). If less than 1/3 of the hourly values are categorized as \"Hazardous\" air quality, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "- The dates and times for this question will be the dates and times reported by AirNow. No adjustments based on timezones will be made.\n- If AirNow data are not available before January 7, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n- Data can be accessed under the \"Historical\" tab at the resolution source.", "post_id": 30517, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735123733.728039, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735123733.728039, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9945124693942622 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012926585093015749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002647192416789941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006021606162473711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0090705904541796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015204078447885579, 0.014526211535013312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007454186295369823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02368489080579067, 0.0017494230548454617, 0.020560827046404485, 0.017741576519297485, 0.0, 0.04478739497884664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8705419053678669, 12.156493899267126 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 13.299422162000692, "peer_score": 10.757869281296074, "coverage": 0.7579220134026438, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998825395472191, "spot_peer_score": 37.84857801792196, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 13.299422162000692, "peer_archived_score": 10.757869281296074, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.84857801792196, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 174, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Airnow](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/):\n\n>The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is EPA's tool for communicating about outdoor air quality and health. The AQI includes six color-coded categories, each corresponding to a range of index values. The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n>EPA establishes an AQI for five major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act. Each of these pollutants has a national air quality standard set by EPA to protect public health:\n\n> - ground-level ozone\n> - particle pollution (also known as particulate matter, including PM2.5 and PM10)\n> - carbon monoxide\n> - sulfur dioxide\n> - nitrogen dioxide\n\nOn November 21, 2024, CNN [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/20/india/delhi-pollution-clinic-smog-climate-intl-hnk/index.html) that New Delhi had the most hazardous air for human health in the world, leading the Delhi Chief Minister to declare a \"medical emergency\" as authorities closed schools and urged people to stay home. On November 20, 2024 the reading for PM2.5, which has been linked to asthma, heart and lung disease, cancer, and cognitive impairment in children, was more than 77 times higher than safe levels set by the WHO.\n\nAt the time of this question, in 2024 year to date 6% of hours have had an AQI classified as Hazardous, 12% of hours have been Very Unhealthy, and 33% Unhealthy. To access the data for 2024 and previous years from 2015 through the present day, please go [here](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) and click on the Historical tab." }, { "id": 30516, "title": "Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will any Cabinet pick drop out before January 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will any Cabinet pick drop out before January 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-any-cabinet-pick-drop-out-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T19:19:11.577604Z", "published_at": "2024-11-29T19:16:02.876588Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.972771Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-29T19:16:02.876585Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 124, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 30300, "title": "Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T19:19:11.577981Z", "open_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T12:42:05.405836Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following his recent electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump has announced all 15 of the federal department heads and 5 more \"Cabinet-level\" officials. Matt Gaetz, who was initially nominated for Attorney General, [withdrew his nomination](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99r2m4y2zro) on November 21, 2024, amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Other nominees, such as [Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/25/nx-s1-5204486/president-elect-trump-reveals-more-people-he-wants-serving-in-his-cabinet) have also faced scrutiny due to various allegations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if after November 27, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, any announced Cabinet member or Cabinet-level official withdraws as a nominee, or Donald Trump or his transition team retracts any nomination.", "fine_print": "- The nomination need not have happened before this question opened. For example, a Cabinet nomination that is announced in December and withdrawn before 2025 would still resolve this question as **Yes**.\n- For purposes of this question we are defining Cabinet and Cabinet-level as the following 26 positions, and any withdrawal of a nomination for any of the positions will resolve this question as **Yes**:\n - Secretary of State\n - Secretary of the Treasury\n - Secretary of Defense\n - Attorney General\n - Secretary of the Interior\n - Secretary of Agriculture\n - Secretary of Commerce\n - Secretary of Labor\n - Secretary of Health and Human Services\n - Secretary of Housing and Urban Development\n - Secretary of Transportation\n - Secretary of Energy\n - Secretary of Education\n - Secretary of Veterans Affairs\n - Secretary of Homeland Security\n - White House Chief of Staff\n - Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency\n - Director of the Office of Management and Budget\n - Director of National Intelligence\n - Director of the Central Intelligence Agency\n - United States Trade Representative\n - Ambassador to the United Nations\n - Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers\n - Administrator of the Small Business Administration\n - Science Advisor to the President\n - Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy", "post_id": 30516, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735630138.511081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735630138.511081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.993, 0.007 ], "means": [ 0.02127587350913931 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.351634852667855, 3.905454555673633, 2.001980208953535, 0.0545307742321855, 0.6424730077707153, 1.22806540450875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06645972874479679, 0.08287920050020464, 0.0, 0.4666587103556457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2775175051207561, 0.0, 0.001293184550844436, 0.0003552051306226385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007335136410451107, 0.0, 0.002397315038413529, 0.00669000914231432, 0.0, 0.01044791386579032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01343969933406002, 0.014666479319743405, 0.02330574774021839, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009583214515414912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008778492387587688, 0.00012614338989262936, 0.008030243059253494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017115864019928928, 0.0, 0.028179110061319578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005970060355477253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009184470551277978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003339650608864187, 0.005025223583386938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001072021815824502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009797596903721127, 0.018975159275697692, 0.0, 0.0021341984025259253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029982420348446974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00625288369450655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011286268412260569, 0.0, 0.002199170494439083 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.42137445512348, "peer_score": 40.05954743539748, "coverage": 0.9998817307895945, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998817307895945, "spot_peer_score": -14.368558064598513, "spot_baseline_score": -83.65012677171204, "baseline_archived_score": 18.42137445512348, "peer_archived_score": 40.05954743539748, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -14.368558064598513, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -83.65012677171204 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 716, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following his recent electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump has announced all 15 of the federal department heads and 5 more \"Cabinet-level\" officials. Matt Gaetz, who was initially nominated for Attorney General, [withdrew his nomination](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99r2m4y2zro) on November 21, 2024, amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Other nominees, such as [Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/25/nx-s1-5204486/president-elect-trump-reveals-more-people-he-wants-serving-in-his-cabinet) have also faced scrutiny due to various allegations." }, { "id": 28868, "title": "Will any part of Belarus be annexed or otherwise joined to the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-part-of-belarus-be-annexed-or-otherwise-joined-to-the-russian-federation-by-the-end-of-2030", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:45:40.964502Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T09:57:05.931250Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 37657, "title": "Will any part of Belarus be annexed or otherwise joined to the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:45:40.964502Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Belarus has been called the last European dictatorship for many years, and has been ruled by President [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) since 1994. In 2020, presidential elections were held that were considered by most actors to be [rigged](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53721410), and the elections were followed by the largest [protests](https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/13/belarus-unprecedented-crackdown) in the country's modern history. However, despite this resistance from a part of society, Belarus is fully under the control of President Lukashenko. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, some [Russian](https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2022/10/whats-behind-russias-new-deployment-of-troops-to-belarus?lang=en) units were deployed on the territory of Belarus, but Belarus itself did not directly enter the war in Ukraine.\n\n Between 1995 and 1999, Boris Yeltsin and Alexander Lukashenko signed a series of treaties, creating the so-called [Union of Belarus and Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State). In principle, it was an attempt to create a common state/union that would be interconnected on a military, economic and/or political level (although Belarus would retain its autonomy). However, this project quickly lost momentum and in reality there is not much left of it, but formally both countries are part of this union state. In February 2023, a strategy for the accession of Belarus to Russia was leaked from Vladimir Putin's presidential office, which envisages the gradual absorption of the country through a number of different paths and instruments, available for example [here](https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html).", "resolution_criteria": "We will evaluate the question positively either in the case of annexation of part or all of Belarus OR in the case of Belarus becoming de facto part of Russia. We will assess this according to the following criteria (or others if uncertainty persists):\n\n a) Sufficient evidence of complete control over Belarusian security forces (e.g. Belarusian units led by Russian officers, ...)\n\n b) Complete control over the political institutions of Belarus (e.g. Russian politicians in the Belarusian parliament) or the transfer of political powers to Russian institutions.\n\n c) Evidence of systematic replacement of Belarusian identification documents (passports, ID cards, ...) with Russian ones.\n\n d) Russian control over the Belarusian Central Bank or transfer of its competences to the Russian Central Bank.\n\n At least two of the conditions above must be met for a question to be evaluated positively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28868, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759744614.973415, "end_time": 1766213664.584771, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759744614.973415, "end_time": 1766213664.584771, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.23446024663373022 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3394064871249756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.417246872565798, 0.7286040831239278, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 1.132490933905089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Belarus has been called the last European dictatorship for many years, and has been ruled by President [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) since 1994. In 2020, presidential elections were held that were considered by most actors to be [rigged](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53721410), and the elections were followed by the largest [protests](https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/13/belarus-unprecedented-crackdown) in the country's modern history. However, despite this resistance from a part of society, Belarus is fully under the control of President Lukashenko. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, some [Russian](https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2022/10/whats-behind-russias-new-deployment-of-troops-to-belarus?lang=en) units were deployed on the territory of Belarus, but Belarus itself did not directly enter the war in Ukraine.\n\n Between 1995 and 1999, Boris Yeltsin and Alexander Lukashenko signed a series of treaties, creating the so-called [Union of Belarus and Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State). In principle, it was an attempt to create a common state/union that would be interconnected on a military, economic and/or political level (although Belarus would retain its autonomy). However, this project quickly lost momentum and in reality there is not much left of it, but formally both countries are part of this union state. In February 2023, a strategy for the accession of Belarus to Russia was leaked from Vladimir Putin's presidential office, which envisages the gradual absorption of the country through a number of different paths and instruments, available for example [here](https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html)." }, { "id": 28867, "title": "Will Ukraine conclude a peace treaty with the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukraine-conclude-a-peace-treaty-with-the-russian-federation-by-the-end-of-2030", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:43:59.905393Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T14:39:03.112661Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 37653, "title": "Will Ukraine conclude a peace treaty with the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:43:59.905393Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Russian [invasion](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusk%C3%A1_invaze_na_Ukrainu) of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. Since then, the bloody conflict has claimed hundreds of thousands of victims on both sides, civilians have been significantly affected, many Ukrainians (according to the [UN, around 7 million](https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/ukraine/)) have left the country in an attempt to escape the war. Russian attacks have been demonstrably targeting [civilian targets and infrastructure](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c206l3qgnx2o) and disrupting energy and water networks.\n\n Peace talks were held in the first days of the conflict - [February 28](https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-ukraine-complete-peace-talks-now-will-hold-second-round-2022-02-28/) representatives of both sides met on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. At the end of March, a draft peace agreement (the so-called Istanbul Communique) was prepared by the negotiating teams, but it was ultimately not accepted. One of the reasons could have been the revelation of crimes by the Russian army in the village of [Bucha](https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/21/ukraine-russian-forces-trail-death-bucha), Russia blames Ukraine for the refusal and publicly declares Western pressure as the reason. Since then, no official negotiations have taken place directly between Ukraine and Russia. In November 2022, Ukrainian President Zelensky presented a [peace plan](https://www.reuters.com/world/we-will-have-fight-longer-liberate-ukrainian-land-says-zelenskiy-2022-11-15/), which was aimed primarily at the international community and did not include the Russian Federation.\n\n A specific situation in the war in Ukraine was the negotiation of an [agreement](https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative) regarding the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, in which the UN and Turkey were primarily involved.", "resolution_criteria": "We will evaluate the issue positively if both sides of the conflict sign a treaty that will end the fighting in Ukraine and Russia and will contain provisions determining the post-war arrangement. A ceasefire valid on the entire front, even if observed by both sides, is not sufficient without additional provisions for a positive evaluation of the issue, as it does not resolve the issue of which territories will remain in the hands of which state and other key provisions.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28867, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760884732.799621, "end_time": 1763144316.739, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760884732.799621, "end_time": 1763144316.739, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4081321610180896 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Russian [invasion](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusk%C3%A1_invaze_na_Ukrainu) of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. Since then, the bloody conflict has claimed hundreds of thousands of victims on both sides, civilians have been significantly affected, many Ukrainians (according to the [UN, around 7 million](https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/ukraine/)) have left the country in an attempt to escape the war. Russian attacks have been demonstrably targeting [civilian targets and infrastructure](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c206l3qgnx2o) and disrupting energy and water networks.\n\n Peace talks were held in the first days of the conflict - [February 28](https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-ukraine-complete-peace-talks-now-will-hold-second-round-2022-02-28/) representatives of both sides met on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. At the end of March, a draft peace agreement (the so-called Istanbul Communique) was prepared by the negotiating teams, but it was ultimately not accepted. One of the reasons could have been the revelation of crimes by the Russian army in the village of [Bucha](https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/21/ukraine-russian-forces-trail-death-bucha), Russia blames Ukraine for the refusal and publicly declares Western pressure as the reason. Since then, no official negotiations have taken place directly between Ukraine and Russia. In November 2022, Ukrainian President Zelensky presented a [peace plan](https://www.reuters.com/world/we-will-have-fight-longer-liberate-ukrainian-land-says-zelenskiy-2022-11-15/), which was aimed primarily at the international community and did not include the Russian Federation.\n\n A specific situation in the war in Ukraine was the negotiation of an [agreement](https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative) regarding the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, in which the UN and Turkey were primarily involved." }, { "id": 28866, "title": "Will Chechnya declare independence from the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chechnya-declare-independence-from-the-russian-federation-by-the-end-of-2030", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:42:12.509329Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-27T13:38:04.530817Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 37643, "title": "Will Chechnya declare independence from the Russian Federation by the end of 2030?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:42:12.509329Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Chechnya declared [independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechnya) in late 1991, but found itself in a different situation from the pre-existing Soviet republics (e.g. the Baltic states), as it had been part of the Russian Socialist Republic during the Soviet Union. The Russian government feared that other territories in a similar situation (e.g. Tatarstan) might have similar separatist tendencies, and therefore launched military operations to regain control of Chechnya.\n\n In the second half of the 1990s, two wars took place, the second of which ensured that Chechnya remained part of the Russian Federation. However, separatism and terrorism did not end, and at the beginning of the millennium there were the infamous attacks on the school in Beslan and the attack on the Moscow theater on Dubrovka. In 2005 and 2006, the regime of President Vladimir Putin therefore carried out a series of drastic [security reforms](https://rusi.org/publication/russias-post-beslan-counterterrorism-reforms) in Chechnya. In 2007, Ramzan Kadyrov, the son of Chechen President Akhmat Kadyrov, who was assassinated in 2005, became the ruler of autonomous Chechnya, and he still rules it today, mmjn. through propaganda, [torture](https://www.state.gov/continuing-human-rights-concerns-regarding-the-russian-federations-republic-of-chechnya/), and close cooperation with the Russian federal government.\n\n Chechnya's position is however specific, although formally it is an ordinary republic of the Russian Federation, it has considerable autonomy and access to Russian financial resources thanks to its loyalty to Vladimir Putin. It also has numerous [paramilitary forces](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/18/the-real-role-of-pro-russian-chechens-in-ukraine) loyal primarily to the dictator Kadyrov.", "resolution_criteria": "We will evaluate the issue based on reports published by Chechen institutions (e.g. [Parliament of the Chechen Republic](http://www.council.gov.ru/en/structure/regions/CE/)) and/or Ramzan Kadyrov, or his successors.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28866, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759692859.963, "end_time": 1766214324.334934, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759692859.963, "end_time": 1766214324.334934, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12823804568677769 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8330381715449309, 0.0, 0.7961378208442376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0186679699572716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Chechnya declared [independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechnya) in late 1991, but found itself in a different situation from the pre-existing Soviet republics (e.g. the Baltic states), as it had been part of the Russian Socialist Republic during the Soviet Union. The Russian government feared that other territories in a similar situation (e.g. Tatarstan) might have similar separatist tendencies, and therefore launched military operations to regain control of Chechnya.\n\n In the second half of the 1990s, two wars took place, the second of which ensured that Chechnya remained part of the Russian Federation. However, separatism and terrorism did not end, and at the beginning of the millennium there were the infamous attacks on the school in Beslan and the attack on the Moscow theater on Dubrovka. In 2005 and 2006, the regime of President Vladimir Putin therefore carried out a series of drastic [security reforms](https://rusi.org/publication/russias-post-beslan-counterterrorism-reforms) in Chechnya. In 2007, Ramzan Kadyrov, the son of Chechen President Akhmat Kadyrov, who was assassinated in 2005, became the ruler of autonomous Chechnya, and he still rules it today, mmjn. through propaganda, [torture](https://www.state.gov/continuing-human-rights-concerns-regarding-the-russian-federations-republic-of-chechnya/), and close cooperation with the Russian federal government.\n\n Chechnya's position is however specific, although formally it is an ordinary republic of the Russian Federation, it has considerable autonomy and access to Russian financial resources thanks to its loyalty to Vladimir Putin. It also has numerous [paramilitary forces](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/18/the-real-role-of-pro-russian-chechens-in-ukraine) loyal primarily to the dictator Kadyrov." }, { "id": 38378, "title": "Will Ukraine become a member of the EU by the end of 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukraine-become-a-member-of-the-eu-by-the-end-of-2030", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:36:43.137928Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-01T10:21:30.499008Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 37656, "title": "Will Ukraine become a member of the EU by the end of 2030?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T17:36:43.137928Z", "open_time": "2024-11-27T08:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-30T08:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ukraine's path to the European Union actually began with joining European structures. It is worth mentioning, for example, the accession to the [Eastern Partnership](https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eastern-partnership_en) countries in 2009. However, the key moment was the signing of the so-called [Association Agreement](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX%3A22014A0529%2801%29) in 2014, which also included accession to the so-called Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area ([DCFTA](https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/eu-ukraine-deep-and-comprehensive-free-trade-area)), within which Ukraine's trade exchange with EU countries was fundamentally simplified. De facto, this is the integration of a non-EU member into the single European market.\n\n Shortly after the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, Ukraine applied for candidate status as a member of the European Union, or rather for membership in the EU. The European Commission recommends [candidate status](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/european-neighbourhood-policy/countries-region/ukraine_en) in June 2022 and the European Council approves it, which is an extremely fast procedure compared to other applicants. Accession negotiations have been underway since December 2023. Ukraine's progress is also assessed every year, especially in the area of reforms, or rather the harmonisation of European and Ukrainian legislation - in the so-called Enlargement report, the last published one is available [here](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/1924a044-b30f-48a2-99c1-50edeac14da1_en?filename=Ukraine%20Report%202024.pdf), the first one was prepared in 2022.\n\n However, EU enlargement is certainly not only about reforms, meeting formal criteria, etc., but also about the outcome of the conflict with the Russian Federation. In this area, however, it is difficult to judge how it will be resolved (or when), or whether the method of resolution will not lead to the emergence of new obstacles to Ukraine's accession to the EU. Similarly, it is also possible that some European states will actively resist the country's accession to the EU (Hungary and Slovakia are the most mentioned).\n\n It is worth mentioning that joining the European Union has enormous support among the Ukrainian population. For example, shortly after the outbreak of the conflict with Russia, [a survey by the Rating Sociological Group](https://ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine/sedmoy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_30-31_marta_2022.html) measured support for joining the EU at a full 91%. At the same time, however, it must be said that support is significantly higher in the west of the country, while it is traditionally lower in the east.", "resolution_criteria": "We will evaluate the issue from official sources of the European Union or from reports of credible media. For a positive evaluation of the issue, it is necessary that Ukraine's accession to the EU is ratified by all member states, i.e. that the entire procedure is completed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761116827.417, "end_time": 1783470270.209, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761116827.417, "end_time": 1783470270.209, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14944958812006995 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8452545557477291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ukraine's path to the European Union actually began with joining European structures. It is worth mentioning, for example, the accession to the [Eastern Partnership](https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eastern-partnership_en) countries in 2009. However, the key moment was the signing of the so-called [Association Agreement](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX%3A22014A0529%2801%29) in 2014, which also included accession to the so-called Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area ([DCFTA](https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/eu-ukraine-deep-and-comprehensive-free-trade-area)), within which Ukraine's trade exchange with EU countries was fundamentally simplified. De facto, this is the integration of a non-EU member into the single European market.\n\n Shortly after the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, Ukraine applied for candidate status as a member of the European Union, or rather for membership in the EU. The European Commission recommends [candidate status](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/european-neighbourhood-policy/countries-region/ukraine_en) in June 2022 and the European Council approves it, which is an extremely fast procedure compared to other applicants. Accession negotiations have been underway since December 2023. Ukraine's progress is also assessed every year, especially in the area of reforms, or rather the harmonisation of European and Ukrainian legislation - in the so-called Enlargement report, the last published one is available [here](https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/1924a044-b30f-48a2-99c1-50edeac14da1_en?filename=Ukraine%20Report%202024.pdf), the first one was prepared in 2022.\n\n However, EU enlargement is certainly not only about reforms, meeting formal criteria, etc., but also about the outcome of the conflict with the Russian Federation. In this area, however, it is difficult to judge how it will be resolved (or when), or whether the method of resolution will not lead to the emergence of new obstacles to Ukraine's accession to the EU. Similarly, it is also possible that some European states will actively resist the country's accession to the EU (Hungary and Slovakia are the most mentioned).\n\n It is worth mentioning that joining the European Union has enormous support among the Ukrainian population. For example, shortly after the outbreak of the conflict with Russia, [a survey by the Rating Sociological Group](https://ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine/sedmoy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_30-31_marta_2022.html) measured support for joining the EU at a full 91%. At the same time, however, it must be said that support is significantly higher in the west of the country, while it is traditionally lower in the east." }, { "id": 30500, "title": "Will the temperature in Denver, CO remain below 70 degrees F for the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-denver-co-remain-below-70-degrees-f-for-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:51.064324Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.381201Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30290, "title": "Will the temperature in Denver, CO remain below 70 degrees F for the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:51.064324Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:17:08.657077Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022, the highest High was 64 F and in December 2023 it was 71. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is below 70 degrees for the Denver International Airport weather station for every day of December 2024, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=DEN&network=CO_ASOS). If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30500, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720405.092081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720405.092081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.7359986664474251 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9147633448549572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.8613940144275982, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3233979111810672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1526999965227192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 2.817005616282088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8055617015887526, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 66.76259584351139, "peer_score": 14.278052455009275, "coverage": 0.9976553656933486, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9976553656933486, "spot_peer_score": -0.7465351457375557, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 66.76259584351139, "peer_archived_score": 14.278052455009275, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7465351457375557, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022, the highest High was 64 F and in December 2023 it was 71. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30499, "title": "Will the temperature in Phoenix, AZ remain below 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-phoenix-az-remain-below-80-degrees-f-in-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:51.027781Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.911157Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T21:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30289, "title": "Will the temperature in Phoenix, AZ remain below 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:51.027781Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T21:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T21:52:43.445258Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022, the highest High was 74 F and in December 2023 it was 84. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is below 80 degrees for the Phoenix, AZ Sky Harbor Airport weather station for every day of December 2024, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PHX&network=AZ_ASOS). If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30499, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720405.735015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.5475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720405.735015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.5475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4525, 0.5475 ], "means": [ 0.5780560368634204 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04611357990309599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559153758998531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20516018946455522, 0.7278890904285862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.041612515980416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7868265116770632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 1.2239841471209512, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -21.8233981302661, "peer_score": 16.448481635577185, "coverage": 0.996277724918392, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.996277724918392, "spot_peer_score": 31.13242296379354, "spot_baseline_score": -14.401030269151931, "baseline_archived_score": -21.8233981302661, "peer_archived_score": 16.448481635577185, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.13242296379354, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -14.401030269151931 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022, the highest High was 74 F and in December 2023 it was 84. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30498, "title": "Will the temperature in Chicago, IL remain below 60 degrees F for the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-chicago-il-remain-below-60-degrees-f-for-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.991218Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.297043Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30288, "title": "Will the temperature in Chicago, IL remain below 60 degrees F for the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.991218Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:10:26.684912Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022, the highest High was 57 F and in December 2023 it was 60. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is below 60 degrees for the Chicago, IL Midway Airport weather station for every day of December 2024, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MDW&network=IL_ASOS). If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30498, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720406.351458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720406.351458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.5319465237151003 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7549731054070334, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10760738615800111, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9234146250173129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6768182719283072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0898189198051226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.2874365810830919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 1.0432321870587185, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.82719956484602, "peer_score": 18.68739816419521, "coverage": 0.9951815303359871, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9951815303359871, "spot_peer_score": 24.18571308656923, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830478, "baseline_archived_score": 63.82719956484602, "peer_archived_score": 18.68739816419521, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.18571308656923, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830478 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022, the highest High was 57 F and in December 2023 it was 60. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30497, "title": "Will the temperature in Anchorage, Alaska ever go below 0 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-anchorage-alaska-ever-go-below-0-degrees-f-in-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.954308Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.898770Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30287, "title": "Will the temperature in Anchorage, Alaska ever go below 0 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.954308Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T20:19:18.603094Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In most years there are multiple days below 0 in Anchorage in December. However, in December 2019, there were not any. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the low temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever below 0 degrees for the Anchorage, Alaska weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PANC&network=AK_ASOS). If the low for any day has not been below that, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30497, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720407.167297, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.917 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720407.167297, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.917 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14, 0.86 ], "means": [ 0.8578030406278621 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.8305036517217669, 0.5059112341124612, 0.17630000022929448, 1.0759836287918743, 0.2581744010322857, 0.5392708434361334, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6560873837437, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 1.2523649192124435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -204.99962628594326, "peer_score": -3.2293972372876256, "coverage": 0.9934867920147047, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9934867920147047, "spot_peer_score": 17.401120766823485, "spot_baseline_score": -183.65012677171205, "baseline_archived_score": -204.99962628594326, "peer_archived_score": -3.2293972372876256, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.401120766823485, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -183.65012677171205 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In most years there are multiple days below 0 in Anchorage in December. However, in December 2019, there were not any. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30496, "title": "Will the temperature in Jacksonville, FL ever exceed 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-jacksonville-fl-ever-exceed-80-degrees-f-in-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.912712Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.770754Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30286, "title": "Will the temperature in Jacksonville, FL ever exceed 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.912712Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T03:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T03:07:35.526143Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever above 80 degrees F for the Jacksonville Naval Air Station weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=NIP&network=FL_ASOS&year=2024&month=12). If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. 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According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the low temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever below 25 degrees for the New York City weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=NYC&network=NY_ASOS&year=2024&month=12). If the low for any day has not been below that, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. 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According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30494, "title": "Will the temperature in San Francisco, CA ever go below 40 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-san-francisco-ca-ever-go-below-40-degrees-f-in-the-entire-month-of-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.682063Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.716865Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30284, "title": "Will the temperature in San Francisco, CA ever go below 40 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.682063Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:52:54.990099Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022 the lowest recorded temperature was 40 F, while in December 2023 it was 46.13. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the low temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever below 40 degrees for the downtown San Francisco weather station, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=SFOC1&network=CA_DCP&year=2024&month=12). If the low for any day has not been below that, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. No other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30494, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720409.217671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.111 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720409.217671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.111 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.889, 0.111 ], "means": [ 0.11398368580116927 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.219858688621007, 0.13357075254608086, 0.9612061900598177, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 1.1236208826473824, 0.5198776598717373, 1.5608812398816436, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2731439221774425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5850006390553214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.70395822665347, "peer_score": 6.961846729146066, "coverage": 0.9896950492483598, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9896950492483598, "spot_peer_score": 4.5368802420907395, "spot_baseline_score": 83.02553241676829, "baseline_archived_score": 82.70395822665347, "peer_archived_score": 6.961846729146066, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.5368802420907395, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 83.02553241676829 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022 the lowest recorded temperature was 40 F, while in December 2023 it was 46.13. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 30493, "title": "Will Donald Trump's 538 favorability be greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trumps-538-favorability-be-greater-than-or-equal-to-440-on-december-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.643522Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.336093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30283, "title": "Will Donald Trump's 538 favorability be greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.643522Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:45:55.648541Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump's favorability rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) is greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024. If it is less than that, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30493, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720409.818412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6352 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720409.818412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6352 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6897925509014976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8389551441531455, 0.09877132838432481, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 2.413172303531403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1738663475487587, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6887296734601589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.6093063966539898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 60.27998947903872, "peer_score": 5.29125235113128, "coverage": 0.9878886572575128, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9878886572575128, "spot_peer_score": 5.913026649720892, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 60.27998947903872, "peer_archived_score": 5.29125235113128, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.913026649720892, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028)." }, { "id": 30492, "title": "Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore still be in space on December 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-astronauts-suni-williams-and-butch-wilmore-still-be-in-space-on-december-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.601267Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.686216Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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If they have returned to Earth's surface, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question will be annulled in the event of loss of life of either astronaut.\n\nThe question resolves unambiguously if both astronauts are alive at the relevant time, regardless of their physical or mental condition. \"Earth's surface\" is to be understood in opposition to space (above the Kármán line), orbit (aboard the ISS), or in transit aboard a surface-bound ship.", "post_id": 30492, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720410.48036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9641999999999998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720410.48036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9641999999999998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.898099537422505 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0171971430160318, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 3.9491177630155962, 1.0456204770450541, 0.2401604262123329, 1.235073780940525, 0.6850893156161345 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.38531686013572, "peer_score": 10.052698185673897, "coverage": 0.9867425468398465, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9867425468398465, "spot_peer_score": 9.743973876777101, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 91.38531686013572, "peer_archived_score": 10.052698185673897, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.743973876777101, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNET: [Stranded NASA Astronauts Are Eating Pizza, Shrimp Cocktail, Cereal With Powdered Milk](https://www.cnet.com/science/stranded-nasa-astronauts-are-eating-pizza-shrimp-cocktail-cereal-with-powdered-milk/)" }, { "id": 30491, "title": "On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-december-31-2024-will-exactly-4-us-states-have-waymos-rider-only-ride-hailing-service-available-to-the-general-public", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.558281Z", "published_at": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T16:35:22.338488Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30281, "title": "On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?", "created_at": "2024-11-26T13:52:50.558281Z", "open_time": "2024-11-26T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:43:58Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-27T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).\r\n\r\nWaymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles. Since its inception as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, Waymo’s vehicles have logged over 7 million miles of rider-only trips.\r\n\r\nAs of early 2024, Waymo operates its rider-only ride-hailing service in California (San Francisco and Los Angeles) and Arizona (Phoenix), and has announced plans to expand operations to Texas (Austin).\r\n\r\nIn late 2023, Waymo published a [report](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/) claiming that its autonomous vehicles have achieved an 85% reduction in the rate of injury-causing compared to national rates for human-operated cars, highlighting the potential of self-driving cars to reduce crashes caused by human error.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the number of US states, including Washington, D.C., in which fully rider-only ride-hailing trips operated by Waymo are available to the general public on December 31, 2024.\r\n\r\nThe primary resolution source will be Waymo's website, which as of early 2024 includes a [\"Where Can You Go?\"](https://waymo.com/whereyoucango/) page. Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) may also be considered in the event of ambiguity or dispute.", "fine_print": "\"rider-only\" trip means one in which the only humans in the car are passengers and no human operates the vehicle for the duration of the trip.\r\n\"Available to the general public\" means that any member of the public is eligible to use the service without first joining a waitlist or having been granted use of the service as part of a limited testing or early access phase.\r\n\"United States\" means the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Therefore the possible outcome range is 0-51.\r\nIn the event that Waymo's operating status in a given state is ambiguous or disputed, Metaculus admins will resolve the state's status based on the best available information indicating whether, in fact, its autonomous ride-hailing service is publicly available for ride-hailing on December 31, 2024.", "post_id": 30491, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732720411.130072, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41528991403333243 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732720411.130072, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41528991403333243 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.23205825921304857 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0839758874887769, 0.13357075254608086, 0.5670536722468447, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 1.0179114698257878, 0.620502543612061, 1.3133173361456105, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6206712971723293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28180589970150993, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0898189198051226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3268262380230356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.69125615061064, "peer_score": 6.162206807229755, "coverage": 0.9865818875117435, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9865818875117435, "spot_peer_score": 11.67325304201035, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 82.69125615061064, "peer_archived_score": 6.162206807229755, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.67325304201035, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).\r\n\r\nWaymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles. Since its inception as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, Waymo’s vehicles have logged over 7 million miles of rider-only trips.\r\n\r\nAs of early 2024, Waymo operates its rider-only ride-hailing service in California (San Francisco and Los Angeles) and Arizona (Phoenix), and has announced plans to expand operations to Texas (Austin).\r\n\r\nIn late 2023, Waymo published a [report](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/) claiming that its autonomous vehicles have achieved an 85% reduction in the rate of injury-causing compared to national rates for human-operated cars, highlighting the potential of self-driving cars to reduce crashes caused by human error." }, { "id": 30476, "title": "Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Ceasefire between Israel & Lebanon/Hezbollah on Jan 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Ceasefire between Israel & Lebanon/Hezbollah on 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"start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30269, "title": "Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-25T20:10:37.358029Z", "open_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T19:35:44.139296Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.\n\nOn November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a ceasefire or similar deal that involves the cessation of all military activity between Israel and Hezbollah is active on January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the latest reports from credible sources. If such reports indicate that a ceasefire remains in effect, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If the latest reports indicate that a ceasefire is no longer effective as of the resolution date, this question will resolve as **No**. If it is unclear, according to the judgement of Metaculus admins, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 30476, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735630124.205059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.986 ], "centers": [ 0.992 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735630124.205059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.986 ], "centers": [ 0.992 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.008000000000000007, 0.992 ], "means": [ 0.9857540528090898 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002758391723504557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0056145053338992595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004802654549584282, 0.0049235387378217576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004297018526623552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013523717240138745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034376653681231313, 0.0037302369458043724, 0.0, 0.012715044525389515, 0.0, 0.0032187559410783474, 0.021084170877201564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058442867237358295, 0.0008627503950090944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01732880491444991, 0.006374911068096776, 0.0, 0.0019754520645241095, 0.019132522858291853, 0.007210049137510858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710457550786099, 0.09563836751124195, 0.0023055849961086256, 0.0, 0.23701969683936608, 0.014128607803813408, 0.0, 0.11927286286885727, 0.5060732911860608, 1.2490151600121215, 2.0303700210267372, 12.139649451090909 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 65.75588108778834, "peer_score": 18.269698251730418, "coverage": 0.9998872028044495, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998872028044495, "spot_peer_score": 19.557115729371525, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 65.75588108778834, "peer_archived_score": 18.269698251730418, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.557115729371525, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 453, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.\n\nOn November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal." } ] }
