Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1960
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The only index of its kind, the STAX is a proprietary, behavior-based index that analyzes retail investor stock positions and trading activity from Schwab’s millions of client accounts to illuminate what investors were actually doing and how they were positioned in the markets each month.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Schwab Trading Activity Index (STAX) is lower than 47.10 for the month of October 2024, at [this resolution link](https://www.schwab.com/investment-research/stax/view-schwab-trading-activity-index), when accessed by Metaculus. If it shows a value that is greater than or equal to 47.10, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "In case of delays in updating the resolution source, resolution will wait until it has been updated. If on or after January 1, 2024, it has still not updated for the time in question, this question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 29074, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729692953.863691, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729692953.863691, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5787550492374806 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.30089629239032045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.06833212923320346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1897864209758722, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6670211675506823, 0.028709986438327752, 0.712065737371914, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3556061481172255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.03493560780589553, 2.262134788671024, 0.0, 0.15306473011963811, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.1045235772690511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 1.1571382468034819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -17.86096504092068, "peer_score": 9.192380934423332, "coverage": 0.9959797421649648, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9959797421649648, "spot_peer_score": -2.330058748119671, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -17.86096504092068, "peer_archived_score": 9.192380934423332, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.330058748119671, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Schwab Trading Activity Index™: September Score Slides by Biggest Margin Since June ’22](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241007024576/en/): \"The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 47.10 in September, down from its score of 53.16 in August. The only index of its kind, the STAX is a proprietary, behavior-based index that analyzes retail investor stock positions and trading activity from Schwab’s millions of client accounts to illuminate what investors were actually doing and how they were positioned in the markets each month.\"" }, { "id": 29073, "title": "Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift officially announce their engagement before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-travis-kelce-and-taylor-swift-officially-announce-their-engagement-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.336803Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.595854Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T19:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28994, "title": "Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift officially announce their engagement before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.336803Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T19:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T19:14:54.754303Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Mirror (UK): [Fans think Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are engaged after spotting string of clues](https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/fans-think-taylor-swift-travis-33819671)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to credible sources Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift are publicly known to be engaged to each other. If there are no such reports, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29073, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729692960.04605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.26666666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729692960.04605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.26666666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7333333333333334, 0.26666666666666666 ], "means": [ 0.3283980199331175 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6447747757508819, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.16241981548491255, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 1.5100756423266861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05414553402405742, 1.2825875725813871, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.0, 0.8894934375330577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Mirror (UK): [Fans think Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are engaged after spotting string of clues](https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/fans-think-taylor-swift-travis-33819671)" }, { "id": 29072, "title": "Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-north-korea-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.333160Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.346308Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28993, "title": "Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.333160Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T22:51:06.763661Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Wikipedia, \"North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and in 2017.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting such as the [International Monitoring System’s ](https://www.ctbto.org/our-work/detecting-nuclear-tests) and Wikipedia's [List of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29072, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729692967.515521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.625 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729692967.515521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": 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"According to Wikipedia, \"North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and in 2017.\"" }, { "id": 29071, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall of Pork Dynasty Inc.'s Ready-to-Eat Fried Pork Skin Products issued September 27, 2024 be closed before December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usda-posted-recall-of-pork-dynasty-incs-ready-to-eat-fried-pork-skin-products-issued-september-27-2024-be-closed-before-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.329389Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.649389Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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"2025-01-01T22:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T22:49:34.879762Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the USDA: \"JPork Dynasty Inc., a Houston, Texas establishment, is recalling approximately 469 pounds of ready-to-eat fried pork skin products due to misbranding and an undeclared allergen, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today. The product contains soy, a known allergen, which is not declared on the product label.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Pork Dynasty Inc.'s Ready-to-Eat Fried Pork Skin Products is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/pork-dynasty-inc--recalls-ready-eat-fried-pork-skin-products-due-misbranding-and) is accessed by Metaculus after December 31, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered.", "post_id": 29071, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729692986.298429, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.825 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729692986.298429, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.825 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6741160571760908 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.16646434153021028, 0.09920880509067492, 0.15534031669520137, 0.6447747757508819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4836886783186378, 0.386864752732201, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.822570358415793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 0.3172274857624765, 0.0, 0.9276937918001903, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -68.02360595847806, "peer_score": 9.527663183575429, "coverage": 0.9917671726975177, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9917671726975177, "spot_peer_score": -5.236027799117142, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -68.02360595847806, "peer_archived_score": 9.527663183575429, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.236027799117142, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the USDA: \"JPork Dynasty Inc., a Houston, Texas establishment, is recalling approximately 469 pounds of ready-to-eat fried pork skin products due to misbranding and an undeclared allergen, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today. The product contains soy, a known allergen, which is not declared on the product label.\"" }, { "id": 29070, "title": "Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spirit-airlines-file-for-bankruptcy-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.325573Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.558903Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-18T19:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28991, "title": "Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.325573Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-18T19:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-18T20:01:38.274067Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Spirit Airlines, a deep discount airline which has been unprofitable from an operating standpoint since the start of the 2020 pandemic, recently had a buyout from JetBlue rejected by antitrust regulators. As of Q2 2024 results it continues to face declining revenues and negative earnings and cash flows.Spirit AIrlines recently had to [extend the deadline](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/spirit-airlines-shares-tick-down-on-deadline-extension-to-complete-debt-renegotiations-c5e29f61?mod=mw_quote_news) of some of its debt due.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Spirit Airlines, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. 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As of Q2 2024 results it continues to face declining revenues and negative earnings and cash flows.Spirit AIrlines recently had to [extend the deadline](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/spirit-airlines-shares-tick-down-on-deadline-extension-to-complete-debt-renegotiations-c5e29f61?mod=mw_quote_news) of some of its debt due." }, { "id": 29069, "title": "Will Spotify remove rapper Diddy's songs from Diddy's Spotify page before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spotify-remove-rapper-diddys-songs-from-diddys-spotify-page-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.321273Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.056211Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28990, "title": "Will Spotify remove rapper Diddy's songs from Diddy's Spotify page before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.321273Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T22:47:32.286235Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Time Magazine September 20, 2024: [Diddy’s in Exile. Here’s What Could Happen to His Music Now](https://time.com/7023138/sean-diddy-combs-music-back-catalog/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if rapper Sean \"Diddy\" Combs no longer has music at his Spotify page, which can currently be found at [this location](https://open.spotify.com/artist/59wfkuBoNyhDMQGCljbUbA). If there is still music by Diddy available at that page when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 2, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If there no longer is a Spotify profile page for Diddy at all, this question resolves as **No**. For purposes of this question, any stage name known to refer to Combs, such as \"Diddy\" or \"Puff Daddy\" will count. 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For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \\(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \\).\r\n\r\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The \"shy Trump voter hypothesis\" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump's national polling bias when using the October 17 [RealClear Polling (RCP) average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris) of a -1.583 percentage point spread (Trump) is strictly greater than 1.0 pp. \r\n\r\nThis will be calculated as -1.583 percentage points (pp), minus Trump's popular vote percentage (expressed in pp), plus Harris' popular vote percentage (in pp).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29068, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729693054.624387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.302 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6175 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729693054.624387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.302 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6175 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4523023195970074 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.473628771566636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07297527195986196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5999787170869234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3872320616245646, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.031250855934932195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27539905103710827, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.6657059006562223, 0.0, 0.27165166388972806, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8676520897500979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -12.504427590781374, "peer_score": -2.578940756633124, "coverage": 0.9870285080676828, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9870285080676828, "spot_peer_score": 5.905959720087613, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -12.504427590781374, "peer_archived_score": -2.578940756633124, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.905959720087613, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \\(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \\).\r\n\r\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The \"shy Trump voter hypothesis\" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis." }, { "id": 29067, "title": "Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than or equal to 0 percentage points and less than or equal to 1.0 percentage points?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-rcps-polling-bias-for-trump-based-on-national-polls-in-the-month-before-the-2024-election-be-greater-than-or-equal-to-0-percentage-points-and-less-than-or-equal-to-10-percentage-points", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.135843Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.110375Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T17:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28988, "title": "Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than or equal to 0 percentage points and less than or equal to 1.0 percentage points?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.135843Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T17:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-17T17:03:29.933500Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4308, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \\(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \\).\r\n\r\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The \"shy Trump voter hypothesis\" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump's national polling bias when using the October 17 [RealClear Polling (RCP) average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris) of a -1.583 percentage point spread (Trump) is greater than or equal to 0 pp and less than or equal to 1.0 pp. \r\n\r\nThis will be calculated as -1.583 percentage points (pp), minus Trump's popular vote percentage (expressed in pp), plus Harris' popular vote percentage (in pp).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29067, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729693082.939374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.196 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729693082.939374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.196 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3987774714307281 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7308978277706577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3579121355606134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.065007871222061, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.011088284031717698, 0.16646434153021028, 0.4417283098457183, 0.8195499865503891, 0.0, 0.2635521314790337, 1.105995602851659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45422992243437593, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02256479543824977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 20.115700955819396, "peer_score": 7.9919166086536935, "coverage": 0.986283372927595, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.986283372927595, "spot_peer_score": 7.6704204503007825, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 20.115700955819396, "peer_archived_score": 7.9919166086536935, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.6704204503007825, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \\(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \\).\r\n\r\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The \"shy Trump voter hypothesis\" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis." }, { "id": 29066, "title": "Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than -1.0 and less than 0 percentage points?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-rcps-polling-bias-for-trump-based-on-national-polls-in-the-month-before-the-2024-election-be-greater-than-10-and-less-than-0-percentage-points", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.128546Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.140725Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T17:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28987, "title": "Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than -1.0 and less than 0 percentage points?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.128546Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T17:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-17T17:03:10.984979Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4308, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \\(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \\).\r\n\r\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The \"shy Trump voter hypothesis\" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump's national polling bias when using the October 17 [RealClear Polling (RCP) average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris) of a -1.583 percentage point spread (Trump) is strictly greater than -1.0 pp and strictly less than 0 pp. \r\n\r\nThis will be calculated as -1.583 percentage points (pp), minus Trump's popular vote percentage (expressed in pp), plus Harris' popular vote percentage (in pp).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29066, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729693108.296752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21600000000000003 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729693108.296752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21600000000000003 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.400193891647785 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.8379487954001852, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11841892241379712, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1393024040991065, 0.5778677609141162, 0.11777121751898838, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.6593259445991373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2678045075055475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08876401083006372, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 1.2998103051324819, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.7835029326219957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 34.58755926351041, "peer_score": 8.72281091726705, "coverage": 0.985197200184619, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.985197200184619, "spot_peer_score": -7.067470624221298, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 34.58755926351041, "peer_archived_score": 8.72281091726705, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.067470624221298, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \\(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \\).\r\n\r\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The \"shy Trump voter hypothesis\" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis." }, { "id": 29065, "title": "Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than or equal to -2.0 and less than or equal to -1.0 percentage points?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-rcps-polling-bias-for-trump-based-on-national-polls-in-the-month-before-the-2024-election-be-greater-than-or-equal-to-20-and-less-than-or-equal-to-10-percentage-points", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.121713Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.290440Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T17:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28986, "title": "Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than or equal to -2.0 and less than or equal to -1.0 percentage points?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.121713Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T17:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-17T17:02:50.279493Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4308, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \\(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \\).\r\n\r\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The \"shy Trump voter hypothesis\" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump's national polling bias when using the October 17 [RealClear Polling (RCP) average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris) of a -1.583 percentage point spread (Trump) is greater than or equal to -2.0 pp and less than or equal to -1.0 pp. \r\n\r\nThis will be calculated as -1.583 percentage points (pp), minus Trump's popular vote percentage (expressed in pp), plus Harris' popular vote percentage (in pp).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29065, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729693133.761438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729693133.761438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4388546200377142 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.10223706135307076, 0.5778677609141162, 0.11777121751898838, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 1.0642764063068877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.460772181068904, 0.0, 0.211786730008699, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.3325532361794137, 0.029941953078415226, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3309518216528762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7336071605155727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 9.952844192216771, "peer_score": 3.6429261884775954, "coverage": 0.9838436482874332, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9838436482874332, "spot_peer_score": -3.6132990839268593, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 9.952844192216771, "peer_archived_score": 3.6429261884775954, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.6132990839268593, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \\(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \\).\r\n\r\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The \"shy Trump voter hypothesis\" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis." }, { "id": 29064, "title": "Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be less than -2.0 percentage points?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-rcps-polling-bias-for-trump-based-on-national-polls-in-the-month-before-the-2024-election-be-less-than-20-percentage-points", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.113796Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.615997Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28985, "title": "Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be less than -2.0 percentage points?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:57:36.113796Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-17T17:02:16.957113Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4308, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \\(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \\).\r\n\r\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The \"shy Trump voter hypothesis\" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump's national polling bias when using the October 17 [RealClear Polling (RCP) average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris) of a -1.583 percentage point spread (Trump) is strictly less than -2.0 pp. \r\n\r\nThis will be calculated as -1.583 percentage points (pp), minus Trump's popular vote percentage (expressed in pp), plus Harris' popular vote percentage (in pp).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29064, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729693161.975769, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729693161.975769, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.35169829323605084 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9675566956997849, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.6091953192457651, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.028218870368318452, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8116305268299652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08579229768347812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 1.2985358003144163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -24.99612313525301, "peer_score": 16.205547715380387, "coverage": 0.9828182818050737, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9828182818050737, "spot_peer_score": 0.18252900693928809, "spot_baseline_score": -55.63933485243852, "baseline_archived_score": -24.99612313525301, "peer_archived_score": 16.205547715380387, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.18252900693928809, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -55.63933485243852 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \\(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \\).\r\n\r\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The \"shy Trump voter hypothesis\" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis." }, { "id": 29039, "title": "Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-botswana-democratic-party-win-the-2024-general-election", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:32:18.047163Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.123053Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T15:50:29Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28960, "title": "Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:32:18.047163Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T15:50:29Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-01T15:51:33.102304Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Botswana is among the most prosperous and stable countries in Africa. It has been ruled by the [Botswana Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Democratic_Party) since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. The party has continuously won [free and fair elections](https://www.voanews.com/a/botswana-to-hold-elections-october-30-as-president-masisi-seeks-2nd-term-/7770173.html), with former President Festus Mogae winning the [Ibrahim Prize for African Leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Prize), awarded only to leaders who respect democracy and the rule of law. The BDP's vote pluralities are often magnified into seat majorities by the first-past-the-post voting method.\n\nChallengers to the BDP's dominance include the [Umbrella for Democratic Change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umbrella_for_Democratic_Change) coalition as well as its former member the [Botswana Congress Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Congress_Party). The only [opinion poll results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Botswana_general_election#Opinion_polls) seem to come from Afrobarometer in 2022, showing the BDP's 22.3% trailing the UDC's 37.5%, with 7.9% for the BCP.\n\nWill Africa's longest democracy continue choosing the party that has always led it, or choose change this time around?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Botswana Democratic Party wins at least 31 of the 61 seats up for election on October 30, 2024, according to the [Independent Electoral Commission](https://www.iec.gov.bw/) or Metaculus' [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question pertains exclusively to the elected seats. Appointed and *ex officio* seats will not affect the resolution.", "post_id": 29039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729693183.653242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7333333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729693183.653242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7333333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.2666666666666666, 0.7333333333333334 ], "means": [ 0.744335633559728 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.17142042106078292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09805864727967764, 0.0, 0.3417566549407237, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 1.5404398961140138, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 1.4621190026768058, 0.1836394386094319, 0.5399542220842091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.8981326213582779, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.7802002747425575, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -72.85582393801272, "peer_score": 3.015014480505131, "coverage": 0.9822623314570498, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9822623314570498, "spot_peer_score": 5.31193378033726, "spot_baseline_score": -90.68905956085189, "baseline_archived_score": -72.85582393801272, "peer_archived_score": 3.015014480505131, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.31193378033726, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -90.68905956085189 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Botswana is among the most prosperous and stable countries in Africa. It has been ruled by the [Botswana Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Democratic_Party) since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. The party has continuously won [free and fair elections](https://www.voanews.com/a/botswana-to-hold-elections-october-30-as-president-masisi-seeks-2nd-term-/7770173.html), with former President Festus Mogae winning the [Ibrahim Prize for African Leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Prize), awarded only to leaders who respect democracy and the rule of law. The BDP's vote pluralities are often magnified into seat majorities by the first-past-the-post voting method.\n\nChallengers to the BDP's dominance include the [Umbrella for Democratic Change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umbrella_for_Democratic_Change) coalition as well as its former member the [Botswana Congress Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Congress_Party). The only [opinion poll results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Botswana_general_election#Opinion_polls) seem to come from Afrobarometer in 2022, showing the BDP's 22.3% trailing the UDC's 37.5%, with 7.9% for the BCP.\n\nWill Africa's longest democracy continue choosing the party that has always led it, or choose change this time around?" }, { "id": 29038, "title": "Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-liberal-democratic-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-2024-japanese-general-election", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:32:18.040274Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.035308Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T19:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28959, "title": "Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:32:18.040274Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T19:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-04T19:18:14.582796Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Soon after taking office, Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba had the House of Representatives dissolved, leading to [new elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election). Ishiba hopes to [get a fresh mandate](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/japans-snap-election-why-ishibas-gamble-might-pay) after his predecessor Fumio Kishida resigned from the leadership of Japan's dominant Liberal Democratic Party due to a corruption scandal.\r\n\r\nAt the time of dissolution, the LDP held 247 of the House's 465 seats. [Opinion polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Japanese_general_election) show the party with a comfortable lead at around 1/3 of the vote; the [parallel voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election#Electoral_system) used in Japan, where 5/8 of the seats are elected by \"first past the post\" and the remainder by proportional representation, might translate that vote into a majority depending on how it is distributed around the country.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Liberal Democratic Party is reported by the Japanese electoral authority or by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) as having won 233 seats or more in the October 2024 elections for the House of Representatives.", "fine_print": "Any alliances the LDP might make before or after the election does not affect this question, which refers strictly to the number of LDP's own Representatives in the House.", "post_id": 29038, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729693208.876792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49200000000000005 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729693208.876792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49200000000000005 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5515637025476162 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5709655805985349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19677171644070618, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 1.547778369061403, 1.2064704773780104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.29853580031441634, 0.2358265416482139, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 1.6644668878561921, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031967072481022006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 1.103728458307352, "peer_score": 6.212021533359879, "coverage": 0.9819451182859916, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9819451182859916, "spot_peer_score": -1.0687694066816986, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": 1.103728458307352, "peer_archived_score": 6.212021533359879, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.0687694066816986, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Soon after taking office, Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba had the House of Representatives dissolved, leading to [new elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election). Ishiba hopes to [get a fresh mandate](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/japans-snap-election-why-ishibas-gamble-might-pay) after his predecessor Fumio Kishida resigned from the leadership of Japan's dominant Liberal Democratic Party due to a corruption scandal.\r\n\r\nAt the time of dissolution, the LDP held 247 of the House's 465 seats. [Opinion polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Japanese_general_election) show the party with a comfortable lead at around 1/3 of the vote; the [parallel voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election#Electoral_system) used in Japan, where 5/8 of the seats are elected by \"first past the post\" and the remainder by proportional representation, might translate that vote into a majority depending on how it is distributed around the country." }, { "id": 29037, "title": "Will IBM lower its Pay-as-you-go quantum computing prices before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ibm-lower-its-pay-as-you-go-quantum-computing-prices-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:32:18.032212Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.060750Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28958, "title": "Will IBM lower its Pay-as-you-go quantum computing prices before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T12:32:18.032212Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T20:06:30.254154Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "IBM press release September 26, 2024: [IBM Expands Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York to Advance Algorithm Discovery Globally](https://newsroom.ibm.com/2024-09-26-ibm-expands-quantum-data-center-in-poughkeepsie,-new-york-to-advance-algorithm-discovery-globally)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if IBM's posted \"starting at\" price for Pay-as-you-go quantum computing is less than $96 USD / minute at [this link](https://www.ibm.com/quantum/pricing) when accessed by Metaculus on or around January 1, 2025. If the price is greater than or equal to that price, this question resolves as **No**.\n", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 29037, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729693234.149803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729693234.149803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.3375435670732756 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1543744415791499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.5117980297950266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6199970382428852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 1.0, 0.0, 1.4179609586114346, 0.6624879587378981, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.7192738719963858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.6850893156161345, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.76151224954603, "peer_score": 10.120739308520996, "coverage": 0.9815505202997614, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9815505202997614, "spot_peer_score": 5.591657268982206, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 55.76151224954603, "peer_archived_score": 10.120739308520996, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.591657268982206, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "IBM press release September 26, 2024: [IBM Expands Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York to Advance Algorithm Discovery Globally](https://newsroom.ibm.com/2024-09-26-ibm-expands-quantum-data-center-in-poughkeepsie,-new-york-to-advance-algorithm-discovery-globally)" }, { "id": 29027, "title": "Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will WHO designate a new C19 VOC by July 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will WHO designate a new C19 VOC by July 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-who-designate-a-new-c19-voc-by-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-22T00:50:23.117928Z", "published_at": "2024-10-23T15:24:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.056501Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-23T15:24:50Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:26:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T09:59:55.528455Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T09:59:55.528455Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28952, "title": "Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-22T00:50:23.118043Z", "open_time": "2024-10-24T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-29T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-29T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-18T17:48:21.262571Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T04:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The WHO tracks SARS-CoV-2 variants using [three main classifications](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-variants-of-sars-cov-2): \r\n\r\nA **Variant Under Monitoring (VUM)** is, according to WHO, one that may require prioritized attention and monitoring. The main objective of this category is to investigate if this variant (and others closely related to it) may pose an additional threat to global public health as compared to other circulating variants.\" At the time of this question, there were two VUMs: BA.2.86 and JN.1.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Interest (VOI)** is a variant with changes that \"are known to affect how the virus behaves or its potential impact on human health. This can include, for example, its ability to spread, its ability to cause serious disease, or how easily it may be detected or treated.\" At the time of this question, there were 7 VOIs: JN.1.7 KP.2,\r\nKP.3, KP.3.1.1, JN.1.18, LB.1, and XEC.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Concern (VOC)** is, according to the [working definition](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) last updated March 15, 2023:\r\n\r\n>A SARS-CoV-2 variant that meets the definition of a VOI (see above) and, through a risk assessment, conducted by WHO TAG-VE, and determined to be associated with a moderate or high level of confidence, meets at least one of the following criteria when compared with other variants:\r\n>• Detrimental change in clinical disease severity; OR\r\n>• Change in COVID-19 epidemiology causing substantial impact on the ability of health systems to provide care to patients with COVID-19 or other illnesses and therefore requiring major public health interventions; OR\r\n>• Significant decrease in the effectiveness of available vaccines in protecting against severe\r\ndisease.\r\n\r\nAt the time of this question, there are no currently circulating WHO-designated VOCs. Previously circulating VOCs (see archive [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20221005140711/https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants)) are:\r\n\r\n| WHO label | Pango lineage | GISAID clade | Nextstrain clade | Additional amino acid changes monitored | Earliest documented samples | Date of designation |\r\n| --------- | ------------- | ------------ | ---------------- | --------------------------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------- |\r\n| **Alpha** | B.1.1.7 | GRY | 20I (V1) | | United Kingdom, Sep-2020 | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Beta** | B.1.351 | GH/501Y.V2 | 20H (V2) | | South Africa, May-2020 | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Gamma** | P.1 | GR/501Y.V3 | 20J (V3) | | Brazil, Nov-2020 | VOC: 11-Jan-2021 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Delta** | B.1.617.2 | G/478K.V1 | 21A, 21I, 21J | | India, Oct-2020 | VOI: 4-Apr-2021 (VOC: 11-May-2021) (Previous VOC: 7-Jun-2022) |\r\n| **Omicron** | B.1.1.529 | GR/484A | 21K, 21L, 21M, 22A, 22B, 22C, 22D | +S:R346K (+S:L452X) (+S:F486V) | Multiple countries, Nov-2021 | VUM: 24-Nov-2021 (VOC: 26-Nov-2021) |", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 21, 2024, and before July 1, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds a new SARS-CoV-2 variant to their list of Variants of Concern that was not previously identified as a VOC at any point, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the WHO's [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) tracker page or its [COVID-19 Variants Dashboard](https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/variants).\r\n\r\nIf this does not occur before July 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question will also resolve as Yes if \r\n\r\n- A new variant is classified using a new classification that is synonymous to the WHO's [working definition](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) last updated October 4, 2023, or \r\n- A new variant is clearly described as being a level above VOC or having properties in addition to the possible attributes of a VOC.", "post_id": 29027, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751246455.022341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751246455.022341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.012439501385347697 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.883663953284124, 0.303126550866293, 0.3412782601310007, 0.004450445125418108, 0.010088690840609248, 0.0012090280028907684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003479997114823738, 0.0, 0.013430931547162897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18353319753873695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004549333128896809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016972687722069135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151812353241977 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.93474771546532, "peer_score": 7.448301168890112, "coverage": 0.9999580403773808, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999580403773808, "spot_peer_score": 2.064225308154064, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 96.93474771546532, "peer_archived_score": 7.448301168890112, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.064225308154064, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 263, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The WHO tracks SARS-CoV-2 variants using [three main classifications](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-variants-of-sars-cov-2): \r\n\r\nA **Variant Under Monitoring (VUM)** is, according to WHO, one that may require prioritized attention and monitoring. The main objective of this category is to investigate if this variant (and others closely related to it) may pose an additional threat to global public health as compared to other circulating variants.\" At the time of this question, there were two VUMs: BA.2.86 and JN.1.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Interest (VOI)** is a variant with changes that \"are known to affect how the virus behaves or its potential impact on human health. This can include, for example, its ability to spread, its ability to cause serious disease, or how easily it may be detected or treated.\" At the time of this question, there were 7 VOIs: JN.1.7 KP.2,\r\nKP.3, KP.3.1.1, JN.1.18, LB.1, and XEC.\r\n\r\nA **Variant of Concern (VOC)** is, according to the [working definition](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) last updated March 15, 2023:\r\n\r\n>A SARS-CoV-2 variant that meets the definition of a VOI (see above) and, through a risk assessment, conducted by WHO TAG-VE, and determined to be associated with a moderate or high level of confidence, meets at least one of the following criteria when compared with other variants:\r\n>• Detrimental change in clinical disease severity; OR\r\n>• Change in COVID-19 epidemiology causing substantial impact on the ability of health systems to provide care to patients with COVID-19 or other illnesses and therefore requiring major public health interventions; OR\r\n>• Significant decrease in the effectiveness of available vaccines in protecting against severe\r\ndisease.\r\n\r\nAt the time of this question, there are no currently circulating WHO-designated VOCs. Previously circulating VOCs (see archive [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20221005140711/https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants)) are:\r\n\r\n| WHO label | Pango lineage | GISAID clade | Nextstrain clade | Additional amino acid changes monitored | Earliest documented samples | Date of designation |\r\n| --------- | ------------- | ------------ | ---------------- | --------------------------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------- |\r\n| **Alpha** | B.1.1.7 | GRY | 20I (V1) | | United Kingdom, Sep-2020 | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Beta** | B.1.351 | GH/501Y.V2 | 20H (V2) | | South Africa, May-2020 | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Gamma** | P.1 | GR/501Y.V3 | 20J (V3) | | Brazil, Nov-2020 | VOC: 11-Jan-2021 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |\r\n| **Delta** | B.1.617.2 | G/478K.V1 | 21A, 21I, 21J | | India, Oct-2020 | VOI: 4-Apr-2021 (VOC: 11-May-2021) (Previous VOC: 7-Jun-2022) |\r\n| **Omicron** | B.1.1.529 | GR/484A | 21K, 21L, 21M, 22A, 22B, 22C, 22D | +S:R346K (+S:L452X) (+S:F486V) | Multiple countries, Nov-2021 | VUM: 24-Nov-2021 (VOC: 26-Nov-2021) |" }, { "id": 29013, "title": "Will Tesla deliver more than 450,000 vehicles in Q4 2024? ", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tesla-deliver-more-than-450000-vehicles-in-q4-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.526493Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.371805Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:23:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28938, "title": "Will Tesla deliver more than 450,000 vehicles in Q4 2024? ", "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.526493Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T23:25:02.156645Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 450,000 vehicles delivered for the fourth quarter of 2024. If it reports deliveries of 450,000 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected January 2, 2025. If Tesla does not report these numbers before January 16, 2025, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 29013, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729606837.712534, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6423333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729606837.712534, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6423333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6458132310884522 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0492373430437701, 0.4767410908382156, 0.422729524609672, 0.36735766010569404, 1.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.580270491795313, 0.21572547604369705, 0.8682671503582153, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.57410289609034, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 37.13400740243937, "peer_score": 5.373561875460185, "coverage": 0.9853063018399258, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9853063018399258, "spot_peer_score": 8.411478580909838, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756148, "baseline_archived_score": 37.13400740243937, "peer_archived_score": 5.373561875460185, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.411478580909838, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756148 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024." }, { "id": 29012, "title": "Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 205% before November 15, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-warren-buffett-indicator-exceed-205-before-november-15-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.519658Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.213355Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-14T14:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28937, "title": "Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 205% before November 15, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.519658Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-14T14:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-14T14:42:04.726754Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):\n\n>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business--that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal.\n\n>For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won't happen.\n\n>For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%--as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000--you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%.\n\nAstute forecasters will note that Buffett's methodology slightly differs from the Longtermtrends website in that Buffett has the GNP as his denominator, while has Longtermtrends has GDP as its denominator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before November 15, 2024 the Warren Buffett Indicator exceeds 205%, as reported at the [Longtermtrends website](https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/), specifically the *Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio* on that page. If before that date the Warren Buffett Indicator has not exceeded 205%, this question resolves as No.\n\nThe figures can be viewed either on the chart itself or by viewing the CSV, XLX, or data table. As of October 21, 2024, the most recent figure displayed in the data table was 202.52 for October 17, 2024. ", "fine_print": "The Warren Buffett indicator will be considered to have exceeded 205% only if it reaches a value of 205.00000000000001 or higher. Any value below 205 in the Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio column of the data table, even 204.99999999999999, will not be considered as exceeding 205%.\n\nIn cases in which the chart might show 205.00% and the data table shows a value higher than that (for example 205.0000000000001) the data table will take precedence when it comes to resolution.\n\nIf the numbers through November 15, 2024 are not posted in a timely manner, the question will wait for resolution until November 30, 2024. If on that date the Warren Buffet Indicator numbers through November 15, 2024 are not posted, this question will resolve based on the most recent numbers. \n\nIf the Longtermtrends website stops tracking the Warren Buffett Indicator, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 29012, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729606573.140244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6633333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729606573.140244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6633333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5731106706879153 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.6434980052553482, 0.0, 0.5554196666308682, 0.0646131558445074, 0.33432944568041745, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.6391388653493315, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2119747032625166, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 1.591716044303581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -18.55549534224752, "peer_score": 8.57240019800881, "coverage": 0.984938066157478, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.984938066157478, "spot_peer_score": 27.416320585421317, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": -18.55549534224752, "peer_archived_score": 8.57240019800881, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.416320585421317, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):\n\n>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business--that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal.\n\n>For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won't happen.\n\n>For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%--as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000--you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%.\n\nAstute forecasters will note that Buffett's methodology slightly differs from the Longtermtrends website in that Buffett has the GNP as his denominator, while has Longtermtrends has GDP as its denominator." }, { "id": 29011, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume for the Veterans Day weekend of 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-us-airline-passenger-volume-for-the-veterans-day-weekend-of-2024-be-up-year-over-year-according-to-the-tsa", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.393086Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.031778Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-13T19:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28936, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume for the Veterans Day weekend of 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?", "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.393086Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-13T19:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T19:50:38.393664Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Veterans Day in the US is [federal holiday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_holidays_in_the_United_States) and is a celebrated on November 11th, regardless of the day of the week upon which it falls. In 2023 it fell on a Saturday, and in 2024 it will fall on a Monday.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the Veterans Day travel weekend of 2024, which we define as the sum of the passenger figures for the five day period of Friday November 8, 2024, through Tuesday November 12, 2024 exceed the equivalent Veterans Day travel weekend of 2023, which we define as the five day period of Friday, November 10, 2023 through Tuesday November 14, 2023. The resolution source is the TSA checkpoint travel numbers, which can be found at [this link](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes) for 2024. The archived 2023 TSA passenger volume numbers can be found [here](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes/2023).\n\nThe five days of November 10, 2023 through November 14, 2023, had respective passenger numbers of 2,591,818, 2,025,517, 2,683,745, 2,533,300, and 2,035,761, for a total of 11,870,141. Therefore, this question resolves as **Yes** if passenger volume for the five-day Veterans Day travel period for 2024 exceeds 11,870,141 and resolves as **No** if it is less than or equal to 11,870,141.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the data is posted and accessed by Metaculus Admins. However, if there are delays then resolution will wait up to the end of the quarter to be posted for the time in question. If it has not been posted as of January 7, 2025, when accessed by Admins, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 29011, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729606580.537034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729606580.537034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7629133331820961 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 1.0292532289534815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5260311109720331, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0013202911981995, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9268930712163701, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.11525585627893538, 1.5261954347433195, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 67.17351068565937, "peer_score": 8.624027883019968, "coverage": 0.9817285969439481, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9817285969439481, "spot_peer_score": 1.5647702291265384, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 67.17351068565937, "peer_archived_score": 8.624027883019968, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.5647702291265384, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Veterans Day in the US is [federal holiday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_holidays_in_the_United_States) and is a celebrated on November 11th, regardless of the day of the week upon which it falls. In 2023 it fell on a Saturday, and in 2024 it will fall on a Monday." }, { "id": 29010, "title": "On October 31, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-october-31-2024-will-nvidias-market-capitalization-be-larger-than-apples", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.388765Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.673203Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T18:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28935, "title": "On October 31, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.388765Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T18:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-04T19:09:21.616883Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, on October 31, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "* If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 29010, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729606587.634246, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729606587.634246, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.41990860760109716 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.09051854706545945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6416490709731395, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.5058032651493982, 0.49919970777631545, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 20.292314469671258, "peer_score": 12.403756247751659, "coverage": 0.9815224764689251, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9815224764689251, "spot_peer_score": 9.248147305924455, "spot_baseline_score": 23.878685958711674, "baseline_archived_score": 20.292314469671258, "peer_archived_score": 12.403756247751659, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.248147305924455, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 23.878685958711674 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 29009, "title": "Will Doug Pederson cease to be the Jacksonville Jaguars head coach before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-doug-pederson-cease-to-be-the-jacksonville-jaguars-head-coach-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.380973Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.715276Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T02:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28934, "title": "Will Doug Pederson cease to be the Jacksonville Jaguars head coach before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.380973Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T02:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T03:04:06.940758Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After an early losing streak to begin the 2024-25 NFL season, some have [speculated](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/will-doug-pederson-get-fired-jaguars-coach-hot-seat/8e9d16305862870ef416857f) that Pederson might be fired by Jaguars owner Shad Khan, although the question might be timing. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Doug Pederson is no longer head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the official Jaguars website [coaches page](https://www.jaguars.com/team/coaches-roster/). Otherwise this question resolves as **No.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29009, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729606609.969212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31666666666666665 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729606609.969212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31666666666666665 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.44122374850666735 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1426670319021028, 0.0, 0.4689238678036229, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 1.1285056080893976, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.4272172004854206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5516434298894375, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18755882158400378, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 6.685410198748741, "peer_score": 19.38942804240563, "coverage": 0.9812443182645023, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9812443182645023, "spot_peer_score": 21.537000525908752, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 6.685410198748741, "peer_archived_score": 19.38942804240563, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.537000525908752, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After an early losing streak to begin the 2024-25 NFL season, some have [speculated](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/will-doug-pederson-get-fired-jaguars-coach-hot-seat/8e9d16305862870ef416857f) that Pederson might be fired by Jaguars owner Shad Khan, although the question might be timing. " } ] }
