Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1980
{ "count": 5957, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2000", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1960", "results": [ { "id": 29008, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on October 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cboe-sp-500-3-month-volatility-index-vxvcls-be-higher-year-over-year-on-october-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.376208Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.953097Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T19:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28933, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on October 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.376208Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T19:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-04T19:38:58.559959Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX), VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge.\" This question specificially looks at the 3-month version of the Vix.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed at [this link](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS). The reported number for October 30, 2024 must be greater than the reported number on October 30, 2023, which at the time of this question was 20.80.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve according to the first value published for the period in question. Later updates or revisions will be immaterial.", "post_id": 29008, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729606630.203638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6166666666666667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729606630.203638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6166666666666667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.49641264299804855 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0698855521116863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.2748574657272404, 1.4407106826994984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2792701067509186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3661851255837644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.3710431120032778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.36840545115429446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -28.431385162110473, "peer_score": 9.597302928040031, "coverage": 0.9810016273376013, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9810016273376013, "spot_peer_score": 16.24311154306514, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -28.431385162110473, "peer_archived_score": 9.597302928040031, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.24311154306514, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX), VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge.\" This question specificially looks at the 3-month version of the Vix." }, { "id": 29007, "title": "Will Nippon Steel acquire US Steel before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nippon-steel-acquire-us-steel-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.369529Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.475813Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28932, "title": "Will Nippon Steel acquire US Steel before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-21T14:05:11.369529Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T20:04:15.193614Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5283, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to a press release dated September 19, 2024, US Steel's president and CEO said, \"We continue to progress through the U.S. regulatory reviews of the pending transaction with Nippon Steel, and are confident in our ability to achieve these approvals. We continue to work towards closing the transaction by the end of the year.\" However, the aquisition has recently been [held up](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/us/politics/us-steel-nippon-steel-deal.html) due to national security reviews from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which may delay closing of the transaction into 2025 or even cause the transaction to be cancelled.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Nippon Steel or US Steel issue a press release or any other posts saying that Nippon Steel has acquired US Steel, at the following respective news link pages: [Nippon Steel news](https://www.nipponsteel.com/en/news/) and [US Steel news](https://investors.ussteel.com/news-events/news-releases) when accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after January 1, 2025. As a secondary resolution source, Metaculus Admins will use US Steel's SEC filings at [this](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001163302&owner=exclude) EDGAR link. \r\n\r\nIf no such press release is found at either news page, and there is no posted SEC filing at the link from US Steel indicating the acquisition has occurred, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, in order to facilitate streamlined resolution no other resolution source will be considered, so forecasters are urged to predict accordingly. If either news release site is down, resolution will wait for up to 7 days. If SEC's Edgar site is down, resolution will wait for up to 7 days. If the resolution source links remains inaccessible after that time for any reason (including the companies discontinuing their news sections or changing the URL and not auto-forwarding to the new page), and the secondary resolution source link remains inaccessible after that time for any reason (including the SEC discontinuing its \"Classic version\"), this question resolves as No.", "post_id": 29007, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729606656.457058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729606656.457058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.25399217836272614 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.9715820669920617, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0210771196141908, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.7677832430890067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.3160823223951963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.8363987110625921, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1076472710961518, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4606279400945458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 60.40713236688608, "baseline_score": 50.28887616317269, "peer_score": 8.876224417000065, "coverage": 0.9807761214011244, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9807761214011244, "spot_peer_score": 9.533747656675995, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.40713236688608, "baseline_archived_score": 50.28887616317269, "peer_archived_score": 8.876224417000065, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.533747656675995 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to a press release dated September 19, 2024, US Steel's president and CEO said, \"We continue to progress through the U.S. regulatory reviews of the pending transaction with Nippon Steel, and are confident in our ability to achieve these approvals. We continue to work towards closing the transaction by the end of the year.\" However, the aquisition has recently been [held up](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/us/politics/us-steel-nippon-steel-deal.html) due to national security reviews from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which may delay closing of the transaction into 2025 or even cause the transaction to be cancelled." }, { "id": 28999, "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2025?\n\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-book-written-by-a-language-model-make-the-ny-times-best-seller-list-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-21T13:48:16.768310Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:11.533211Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T02:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28924, "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2025?\n\n", "created_at": "2024-10-21T13:48:16.768310Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T02:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T02:25:49.594590Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\n\n> A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\n\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\n\n> widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.", "resolution_criteria": "A book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\n\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2025, and negatively otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28999, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729606678.835291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.068 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729606678.835291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.068 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9319999999999999, 0.068 ], "means": [ 0.12318908162950189 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09940644540447825, 0.7942801538541139, 2.5849707898827545, 1.3152449938223576, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.4007237001593435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.667066759479271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 88.2282027679596, "peer_score": 11.85565670300087, "coverage": 0.9805356343394075, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9805356343394075, "spot_peer_score": 8.619477577954154, "spot_baseline_score": 89.8401859992193, "baseline_archived_score": 88.2282027679596, "peer_archived_score": 11.85565670300087, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.619477577954154, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 89.8401859992193 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\n\n> A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\n\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\n\n> widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic." }, { "id": 28998, "title": "Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war before January 1, 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-21T13:48:16.753062Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.863748Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28923, "title": "Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war before January 1, 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-10-21T13:48:16.753062Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T20:02:39.859110Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. \n\nCurrently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is any nuclear detonation as an act of war before January 1, 2025. Resolution will be by credible media reports. The detonation must be deliberate; accidental, inadvertent, or testing/peaceful detonations will not qualify (see fine print). Attacks using [strategic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_nuclear_weapon) and [tactical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.", "fine_print": "[Barrett et al. 2013](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) defined terms to distinguish between causes of nuclear detonations:\n\n>In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\n\n>In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\n\n>In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.", "post_id": 28998, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729606700.448582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.047000000000000014 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729606700.448582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.047000000000000014 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.953, 0.047000000000000014 ], "means": [ 0.06243456963174969 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.04289084712097685, 1.6734499027143583, 1.2441464388650996, 0.3620041976852515, 1.3587574271172125, 3.1284701582774916, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.73330872196706, "peer_score": 0.48386308862016686, "coverage": 0.9802669462258066, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9802669462258066, "spot_peer_score": 0.32324152197063244, "spot_baseline_score": 93.05481192478547, "baseline_archived_score": 91.73330872196706, "peer_archived_score": 0.48386308862016686, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.32324152197063244, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 93.05481192478547 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. \n\nCurrently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)." }, { "id": 28997, "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-us-fda-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-21T13:48:16.734821Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.070714Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28922, "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-21T13:48:16.734821Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T22:44:44.387146Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\n\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \n\nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\n\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\n\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \n\nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here]( https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Food and Drug Administration (or its successor body if current FDA ceases to exist) approves a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the US before January 1, 2025. The approval must be given before January 1, 2025, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a \"'senolytic therapy\" if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.\n\nThis question will resolve as No if no such therapy is approved before January 1, 2025. If the FDA is dissolved before approval is granted, and no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as Annulled.\n", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28997, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729607384.596093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.086 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729607384.596093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.086 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.914, 0.086 ], "means": [ 0.09782916778774774 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.04710224358329484, 0.2705890052810115, 0.7693704078449088, 1.5206264693890836, 0.037197912973893646, 1.5743868918558184, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.8290365828846191, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.8249082519936364, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6561945828504347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 90.1365550135533, "peer_score": 2.803875855745922, "coverage": 0.9800623554625999, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9800623554625999, "spot_peer_score": -0.4132142096700818, "spot_baseline_score": 87.02660703959828, "baseline_archived_score": 90.1365550135533, "peer_archived_score": 2.803875855745922, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.4132142096700818, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 87.02660703959828 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\n\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \n\nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\n\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\n\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \n\nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here]( https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/)" }, { "id": 28974, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election?", "short_title": "Will BDP win a majority of elected seats in 2024?", "url_title": "Will BDP win a majority of elected seats in 2024?", "slug": "will-bdp-win-a-majority-of-elected-seats-in-2024", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-20T18:48:04.378721Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T12:29:57.815647Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.093499Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-21T12:29:57.815645Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-02T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T22:29:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28909, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election?", "created_at": "2024-10-20T18:48:04.378806Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T22:29:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T12:29:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T12:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-02T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-01T09:59:54.720509Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-30T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-30T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Botswana is among the most prosperous and stable countries in Africa. It has been ruled by the [Botswana Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Democratic_Party) since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. The party has continuously won [free and fair elections](https://www.voanews.com/a/botswana-to-hold-elections-october-30-as-president-masisi-seeks-2nd-term-/7770173.html), with former President Festus Mogae winning the [Ibrahim Prize for African Leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Prize), awarded only to leaders who respect democracy and the rule of law. The BDP's vote pluralities are often magnified into seat majorities by the first-past-the-post voting method.\n\nChallengers to the BDP's dominance include the [Umbrella for Democratic Change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umbrella_for_Democratic_Change) coalition as well as its former member the [Botswana Congress Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Congress_Party). The only [opinion poll results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Botswana_general_election#Opinion_polls) seem to come from Afrobarometer in 2022, showing the BDP's 22.3% trailing the UDC's 37.5%, with 7.9% for the BCP.\n\nWill Africa's longest democracy continue choosing the party that has always led it, or choose change this time around?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Botswana Democratic Party wins at least 31 of the 61 seats up for election on October 30, 2024, according to the [Independent Electoral Commission](https://www.iec.gov.bw/) or Metaculus' [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question pertains exclusively to the elected seats. Appointed and *ex officio* seats will not affect the resolution.", "post_id": 28974, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730096501.446435, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730096501.446435, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41000000000000003, 0.59 ], "means": [ 0.6220045425535856 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -31.386426022579435, "peer_score": 0.4551160161421208, "coverage": 0.9203737929022048, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9203737929022048, "spot_peer_score": 1.9578329427671108, "baseline_archived_score": -31.386426022579435, "peer_archived_score": 0.4551160161421208, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.9578329427671108 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Botswana is among the most prosperous and stable countries in Africa. It has been ruled by the [Botswana Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Democratic_Party) since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. The party has continuously won [free and fair elections](https://www.voanews.com/a/botswana-to-hold-elections-october-30-as-president-masisi-seeks-2nd-term-/7770173.html), with former President Festus Mogae winning the [Ibrahim Prize for African Leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Prize), awarded only to leaders who respect democracy and the rule of law. The BDP's vote pluralities are often magnified into seat majorities by the first-past-the-post voting method.\n\nChallengers to the BDP's dominance include the [Umbrella for Democratic Change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umbrella_for_Democratic_Change) coalition as well as its former member the [Botswana Congress Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Congress_Party). The only [opinion poll results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Botswana_general_election#Opinion_polls) seem to come from Afrobarometer in 2022, showing the BDP's 22.3% trailing the UDC's 37.5%, with 7.9% for the BCP.\n\nWill Africa's longest democracy continue choosing the party that has always led it, or choose change this time around?" }, { "id": 28973, "title": "Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024?", "short_title": "New elections in Bulgaria within one year?", "url_title": "New elections in Bulgaria within one year?", "slug": "new-elections-in-bulgaria-within-one-year", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-20T18:24:13.761918Z", "published_at": "2024-10-23T16:40:01.069787Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.524157Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-23T16:40:01.069785Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-27T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-27T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-28T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-23T19:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28908, "title": "Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-20T18:24:13.762076Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T19:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T19:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T19:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-28T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-27T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-27T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bulgaria has been in a [political crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%93present_Bulgarian_political_crisis) since 2021. While the normal term of the National Assembly is four years, there have been six elections since April 2021, with [a seventh scheduled](https://www.eurotopics.net/en/327913/bulgarian-parliamentary-elections-take-7) to take place on October 27, 2024. One consequence of the crisis has been the delay of the country's adoption of the euro, which had been hoped to happen at the start of 2024.\n\nThe Constitution of Bulgaria determines a fairly rigid process for government formation; the leaders of the three largest parties, each in their own turn, receive a mandate from the President with a tight deadline to come up with a majority in the National Assembly, and if none of the three manages to secure this majority snap elections are called. The MPs elected in June 2024, on the same day as European Parliament elections, [have gone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2024_Bulgarian_parliamentary_election#Coalition_negotiations) through this three-mandate process without succeeding in forming a coalition, which led to the upcoming vote.\n\nWith turnout in the June election at only 33% – the lowest since the end of the Communist regime in 1989 – and opinion polls suggesting vote shares not too different from four months ago, it seems uncertain the new Sabranie will last much longer than its recent predecessors. So: will a new election be held in the year following October 28, 2024?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are elections to the National Assembly of Bulgaria at any point after October 28, 2024 and before October 28, 2025.", "fine_print": "The question will be **Annulled** if there is no longer a sovereign Bulgarian state. Elections to a Constituent Assembly or some similar body elected to work in parallel with the National Assembly without replacing it does not affect resolution.", "post_id": 28973, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758032631.74, "end_time": 1760186460.232, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758032631.74, "end_time": 1760186460.232, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25736741003489827 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2974010634772374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 1.3682292569826868, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.4177035342880956, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bulgaria has been in a [political crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%93present_Bulgarian_political_crisis) since 2021. While the normal term of the National Assembly is four years, there have been six elections since April 2021, with [a seventh scheduled](https://www.eurotopics.net/en/327913/bulgarian-parliamentary-elections-take-7) to take place on October 27, 2024. One consequence of the crisis has been the delay of the country's adoption of the euro, which had been hoped to happen at the start of 2024.\n\nThe Constitution of Bulgaria determines a fairly rigid process for government formation; the leaders of the three largest parties, each in their own turn, receive a mandate from the President with a tight deadline to come up with a majority in the National Assembly, and if none of the three manages to secure this majority snap elections are called. The MPs elected in June 2024, on the same day as European Parliament elections, [have gone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2024_Bulgarian_parliamentary_election#Coalition_negotiations) through this three-mandate process without succeeding in forming a coalition, which led to the upcoming vote.\n\nWith turnout in the June election at only 33% – the lowest since the end of the Communist regime in 1989 – and opinion polls suggesting vote shares not too different from four months ago, it seems uncertain the new Sabranie will last much longer than its recent predecessors. So: will a new election be held in the year following October 28, 2024?" }, { "id": 28972, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?", "short_title": "Will LDP win a seat majority in the 2024 Japanese elections?", "url_title": "Will LDP win a seat majority in the 2024 Japanese elections?", "slug": "will-ldp-win-a-seat-majority-in-the-2024-japanese-elections", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-20T18:02:12.693800Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T12:15:54.726837Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.037631Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-21T12:15:54.726835Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-29T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-28T07:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T22:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28907, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?", "created_at": "2024-10-20T18:02:12.693879Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T22:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-24T12:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-24T12:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-29T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-28T07:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-28T07:27:11.155659Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-26T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Soon after taking office, Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba had the House of Representatives dissolved, leading to [new elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election). Ishiba hopes to [get a fresh mandate](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/japans-snap-election-why-ishibas-gamble-might-pay) after his predecessor Fumio Kishida resigned from the leadership of Japan's dominant Liberal Democratic Party due to a corruption scandal.\n\nAt the time of dissolution, the LDP held 247 of the House's 465 seats. [Opinion polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Japanese_general_election) show the party with a comfortable lead at around 1/3 of the vote; the [parallel voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election#Electoral_system) used in Japan, where 5/8 of the seats are elected by \"first past the post\" and the remainder by proportional representation, might translate that vote into a majority depending on how it is distributed around the country.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Liberal Democratic Party is reported by the Japanese electoral authority or by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) as having won 233 seats or more in the October 2024 elections for the House of Representatives.", "fine_print": "Any alliances the LDP might make before or after the election does not affect this question, which refers strictly to the number of LDP's own Representatives in the House.", "post_id": 28972, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729931544.519227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729931544.519227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.3856977660069117 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 13.401489950410816, "peer_score": 67.2102533459386, "coverage": 0.886031180245695, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.886031180245695, "spot_peer_score": 100.84336834921562, "baseline_archived_score": 13.401489950410816, "peer_archived_score": 67.2102533459386, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 100.84336834921562 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Soon after taking office, Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba had the House of Representatives dissolved, leading to [new elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election). Ishiba hopes to [get a fresh mandate](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/japans-snap-election-why-ishibas-gamble-might-pay) after his predecessor Fumio Kishida resigned from the leadership of Japan's dominant Liberal Democratic Party due to a corruption scandal.\n\nAt the time of dissolution, the LDP held 247 of the House's 465 seats. [Opinion polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Japanese_general_election) show the party with a comfortable lead at around 1/3 of the vote; the [parallel voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election#Electoral_system) used in Japan, where 5/8 of the seats are elected by \"first past the post\" and the remainder by proportional representation, might translate that vote into a majority depending on how it is distributed around the country." }, { "id": 28964, "title": "Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?", "short_title": "Will quantum consciousness be the consensus before 2075?", "url_title": "Will quantum consciousness be the consensus before 2075?", "slug": "will-quantum-consciousness-be-the-consensus-before-2075", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-20T03:33:22.561441Z", "published_at": "2024-10-30T16:44:15.331909Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T23:36:49.258689Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-30T16:44:15.331907Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2074-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2074-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-01T16:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28903, "title": "Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?", "created_at": "2024-10-20T03:33:22.561557Z", "open_time": "2024-11-01T16:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-05T16:43:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-05T16:43:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2074-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2074-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2074-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_mind) that quantum effects may be responsible for consciousness has been debated for many years. Such theories generally are predicated on the idea that algorithmic/classical processes cannot generate consciousness on their own (as demonstrated by the [Chinese Room](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room) thought experiment) and as such, non-classical events at the quantum level are required to explain why consciousness manifests the way it does. \n\nRoger Penrose and Stuart Hameroff's theory of [Orchestrated Objective Reduction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orchestrated_objective_reduction) (Orch-OR) was the first detailed theory of quantum consciousness. It holds that microtubules, which are the smallest structures within neurons, are responsible for collapsing the wave function of quantum particles in superpositions, referred to in the theory as objective reduction (OR). The microtubules are then able to coordinate this collapse of the wave function with each other, effectively allowing them to act like qubits in a quantum computer. The continuous and simultaneous occurrence of non-classical OR events throughout the brain allows for orchestrated OR, which the theory holds is consciousness.\n\nInitially published in the 1990s, Orch-OR continues to be the most popular theory of quantum consciousness in 2024. Various other theories of quantum consciousness have been published in the time since its release, most seeking to improve on or modify the basic principles laid out by Orch-OR. A few of these theories include [Bennet et al. (2023)](https://osf.io/preprints/osf/mtgn7), which seeks to be consistent with the Many-Worlds interpretation, and Stephen Wolfram's [consciousness in the Ruliad](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2021/11/the-concept-of-the-ruliad./) (2021), which holds that the non-classical collapse of the wave function allows for the perception of all that can be perceived. \n\nTheories of quantum consciousness have received considerable criticism. In particular, the hot and chaotic structure of organic brains is poorly-suited for the occurrence of quantum effects, which occur most frequently at temperatures close to absolute zero. However, the discovery of quantum effects in processes such as [photosynthesis](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/physicists-see-quantum-effects-in-photosynthesis) during the 2000s and 2010s created increased interest in theories of quantum consciousness. Following the observation of ultraviolet superradiance, a quantum effect, in the tubulin structures of neurons by [Babcock et al. (2024)](https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jpcb.3c07936) considerable new attention has been given to theories of quantum consciousness, particularly Orch-OR. If such theories are true, it would have substantial implications for neurology, psychology, quantum computing, consciousness uploading, philosophy, and physics as a whole.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before December 1, 2074, a credible survey indicates that at least 75% of academic consciousness experts believe that quantum mechanical processes play a necessary role in generating conscious experience. To be considered credible, the survey must have been conducted by an established academic institution, a research organization, or recognized researchers in the field, or it must have been pubished in an established peer-reviewed journal.\n\nIf no such survey has been published before December 1, 2074, Metaculus admins will use [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) and potentially communicate with subject-matter experts to determine if such a consensus exists among experts. If they determine that such a consensus does not exist, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28964, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758065798.361589, "end_time": 1783810137.145, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758065798.361589, "end_time": 1783810137.145, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.1400548023270066 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3074182981420026, 0.7647277572963284, 1.900760718078938, 0.0, 1.3109114889666187, 1.0554006891254832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12948046043583153, 0.0, 0.45713306148208954, 0.0, 0.006813082111662306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9062630157534614, 0.0, 0.6682290751014637, 0.0, 0.01223904243451124, 1.4681817174292848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045661515517217234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015497814578501265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4741317757842507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019184847683859318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24582773872283623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5175953131017844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009362214450677682 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_mind) that quantum effects may be responsible for consciousness has been debated for many years. Such theories generally are predicated on the idea that algorithmic/classical processes cannot generate consciousness on their own (as demonstrated by the [Chinese Room](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room) thought experiment) and as such, non-classical events at the quantum level are required to explain why consciousness manifests the way it does. \n\nRoger Penrose and Stuart Hameroff's theory of [Orchestrated Objective Reduction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orchestrated_objective_reduction) (Orch-OR) was the first detailed theory of quantum consciousness. It holds that microtubules, which are the smallest structures within neurons, are responsible for collapsing the wave function of quantum particles in superpositions, referred to in the theory as objective reduction (OR). The microtubules are then able to coordinate this collapse of the wave function with each other, effectively allowing them to act like qubits in a quantum computer. The continuous and simultaneous occurrence of non-classical OR events throughout the brain allows for orchestrated OR, which the theory holds is consciousness.\n\nInitially published in the 1990s, Orch-OR continues to be the most popular theory of quantum consciousness in 2024. Various other theories of quantum consciousness have been published in the time since its release, most seeking to improve on or modify the basic principles laid out by Orch-OR. A few of these theories include [Bennet et al. (2023)](https://osf.io/preprints/osf/mtgn7), which seeks to be consistent with the Many-Worlds interpretation, and Stephen Wolfram's [consciousness in the Ruliad](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2021/11/the-concept-of-the-ruliad./) (2021), which holds that the non-classical collapse of the wave function allows for the perception of all that can be perceived. \n\nTheories of quantum consciousness have received considerable criticism. In particular, the hot and chaotic structure of organic brains is poorly-suited for the occurrence of quantum effects, which occur most frequently at temperatures close to absolute zero. However, the discovery of quantum effects in processes such as [photosynthesis](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/physicists-see-quantum-effects-in-photosynthesis) during the 2000s and 2010s created increased interest in theories of quantum consciousness. Following the observation of ultraviolet superradiance, a quantum effect, in the tubulin structures of neurons by [Babcock et al. (2024)](https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jpcb.3c07936) considerable new attention has been given to theories of quantum consciousness, particularly Orch-OR. If such theories are true, it would have substantial implications for neurology, psychology, quantum computing, consciousness uploading, philosophy, and physics as a whole." }, { "id": 28922, "title": "Will Donald Trump concede if he loses the 2024 presidential election?", "short_title": "Trump concedes election loss?", "url_title": "Trump concedes election loss?", "slug": "trump-concedes-election-loss", "author_id": 211683, "author_username": "NonzeroNews", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-17T14:23:33.362412Z", "published_at": "2024-10-17T14:24:32.786748Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.931150Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-17T14:24:32.786746Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-12T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T12:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-17T14:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3649, "name": "Nonzero Newsletter Community", "type": "community", "slug": "nonzero", "description": "A Metaculus Community for Robert Wright's Nonzero Newsletter and Podcast", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-24_at_2.08.03PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/PCE1WV8g_400x400.jpg", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 211683, "username": "NonzeroNews", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3649, "name": "Nonzero Newsletter Community", "type": "community", "slug": "nonzero", "description": "A Metaculus Community for Robert Wright's Nonzero Newsletter and Podcast", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-24_at_2.08.03PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/PCE1WV8g_400x400.jpg", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 211683, "username": "NonzeroNews", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28871, "title": "Will Donald Trump concede if he loses the 2024 presidential election?", "created_at": "2024-10-17T14:23:33.362504Z", "open_time": "2024-10-17T14:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-22T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-22T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-12T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T12:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-26T12:18:04.496839Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-23T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-23T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump has maintained for the past four years that he won the 2020 election despite the fact that election officials and Congress certified Joe Biden's victory in that race. A recent [poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/10/most-voters-say-harris-will-concede-and-trump-wont-if-defeated-in-the-election/) found that only one in four Americans expect Trump to concede if he loses the 2024 election. Trump supporters are split on this question, with 46 percent saying that he would concede if he loses and 50 percent saying he would not.", "resolution_criteria": "In order for this to resolve in the affirmative, Trump must publicly concede that he has lost the election to Kamala Harris. The question is void if election officials and Congress certify that Trump has won the election. For the purposes of this question, we've decided to set the resolution as one week after election day. It is possible that this date will have to be extended due to the longer timelines associated with mail-in voting and the possibility of legal disputes over vote counts.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28922, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729624075.136111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729624075.136111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10555303584504964 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.8389036768430693, 0.04213280279121279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9962884298710901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.335971123693824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.086337629660362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4767296448462103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.314326790937948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump has maintained for the past four years that he won the 2020 election despite the fact that election officials and Congress certified Joe Biden's victory in that race. A recent [poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/10/most-voters-say-harris-will-concede-and-trump-wont-if-defeated-in-the-election/) found that only one in four Americans expect Trump to concede if he loses the 2024 election. Trump supporters are split on this question, with 46 percent saying that he would concede if he loses and 50 percent saying he would not." }, { "id": 28917, "title": "Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be delayed until after January 6, 2025 for any reason?", "short_title": "Delayed certification of the 2024 US presidential election?", "url_title": "Delayed certification of the 2024 US presidential election?", "slug": "delayed-certification-of-the-2024-us-presidential-election", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-16T21:10:23.994021Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T22:06:19.633412Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.714521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-21T22:06:19.633409Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-06T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-06T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T22:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T14:35:14.591247Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T14:35:14.591247Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28870, "title": "Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be delayed until after January 6, 2025 for any reason?", "created_at": "2024-10-16T21:10:23.994141Z", "open_time": "2024-10-22T22:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T22:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T22:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T08:45:21.376870Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-06T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-06T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be halted for any reason?\n\nThe [2024 US Presidential election](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2024) will be held on 5 November 2024 between Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee former president Donald Trump. The election will be the 60th of its kind since 1788–89. \n\nInstead of a direct popular vote, US presidents are elected via [the Electoral College](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/about#:~:text=The%20Electoral%20College%20consists%20of,of%20Representatives%20plus%20two%20Senators.), a system whereby the president is determined by the number of electors they win from each state plus Washington, DC. There are 538 electors in total, with the number attributed to each state determined by the size of its House of Representatives in addition to two Senators. When a presidential candidate wins a state, they usually take all its electoral votes, with the candidate who wins at least 270 winning the presidency.\n\nThe results in a presidential election go through a process of [reporting, canvassing, and certifying](https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/election-results-canvass-and-certification) for them to be validated. On the state level, this begins with the publication of unofficial results after the polls close and until all the ballots are counted; the election is then “canvassed” until all the election data is aggregated; finally, the results are “certified” when election officials issue a written statement attesting that the election results are a true and accurate accounting of all votes cast. \n\n[Following this](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/about), the newly formed Electoral College typically meets in their respective state capital between December 14 and 20 to cast their votes. These votes are then sent to Congress for final certification during a joint session the following year on January 6.\n\nIn the past, attempts have been made to delay certification on the state level. Although ultimately unsuccessful, [the 2020 fake electors](https://www.justsecurity.org/81939/timeline-false-electors/) plot shows this. \n\nBy contrast, only once in US history has certification by Congress been delayed. This occurred when [Trump supporters stormed the United States Capitol Building](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack) on January 6, 2021 in an attempt to prevent the joint session of Congress from counting the Electoral College and confirming Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election. The delay only lasted one day before the results were certified on January 7, 2021.\n\nThe efforts undertaken to overturn the 2020 election were unprecedented and remain a topic of significant controversy. Donald Trump, for example, has continued to claim that the 2020 election was “stolen” by the Democratic Party while the former president and many leading Republicans have also declined to commit to accepting the results of the 2024 election, with some, such as Marco Rubio, outright refusing if they suspect “foul play”. Accordingly, the prospect is raised that the certification of the 2024 US presidential election may be delayed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the certification of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not completed before January 7, 2025, for any reason. This includes, but is not limited to, formal objections raised during the certification process, legal injunctions, procedural delays, or significant disruptions such as the storming of the Capitol.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the certification is completed before January 7, 2025.", "fine_print": "The time zone of this question is Eastern Time (ET).\n\nThe process for an objection to halt the certification is the following:\n- A member of the House of Representatives raises a formal objection to a state’s electoral votes.\n- That objection must be joined by at least one senator for it to be considered valid.\n- If such an objection occurs, the joint session of Congress is be suspended and each chamber separately debates the objection for a maximum of two hours.", "post_id": 28917, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736097439.363228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736097439.363228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.006282602707788017 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.714537869983678, 0.10635996762051808, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.69346978703193, "peer_score": 4.695769279605985, "coverage": 0.9878212698350086, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9878212698350086, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830476, "baseline_archived_score": 82.69346978703193, "peer_archived_score": 4.695769279605985, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830476 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be halted for any reason?\n\nThe [2024 US Presidential election](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2024) will be held on 5 November 2024 between Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee former president Donald Trump. The election will be the 60th of its kind since 1788–89. \n\nInstead of a direct popular vote, US presidents are elected via [the Electoral College](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/about#:~:text=The%20Electoral%20College%20consists%20of,of%20Representatives%20plus%20two%20Senators.), a system whereby the president is determined by the number of electors they win from each state plus Washington, DC. There are 538 electors in total, with the number attributed to each state determined by the size of its House of Representatives in addition to two Senators. When a presidential candidate wins a state, they usually take all its electoral votes, with the candidate who wins at least 270 winning the presidency.\n\nThe results in a presidential election go through a process of [reporting, canvassing, and certifying](https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/election-results-canvass-and-certification) for them to be validated. On the state level, this begins with the publication of unofficial results after the polls close and until all the ballots are counted; the election is then “canvassed” until all the election data is aggregated; finally, the results are “certified” when election officials issue a written statement attesting that the election results are a true and accurate accounting of all votes cast. \n\n[Following this](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/about), the newly formed Electoral College typically meets in their respective state capital between December 14 and 20 to cast their votes. These votes are then sent to Congress for final certification during a joint session the following year on January 6.\n\nIn the past, attempts have been made to delay certification on the state level. Although ultimately unsuccessful, [the 2020 fake electors](https://www.justsecurity.org/81939/timeline-false-electors/) plot shows this. \n\nBy contrast, only once in US history has certification by Congress been delayed. This occurred when [Trump supporters stormed the United States Capitol Building](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack) on January 6, 2021 in an attempt to prevent the joint session of Congress from counting the Electoral College and confirming Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election. The delay only lasted one day before the results were certified on January 7, 2021.\n\nThe efforts undertaken to overturn the 2020 election were unprecedented and remain a topic of significant controversy. Donald Trump, for example, has continued to claim that the 2020 election was “stolen” by the Democratic Party while the former president and many leading Republicans have also declined to commit to accepting the results of the 2024 election, with some, such as Marco Rubio, outright refusing if they suspect “foul play”. Accordingly, the prospect is raised that the certification of the 2024 US presidential election may be delayed." }, { "id": 28906, "title": "Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?", "short_title": "Harris on Joe Rogan's Podcast Before 2024 Election?", "url_title": "Harris on Joe Rogan's Podcast Before 2024 Election?", "slug": "harris-on-joe-rogans-podcast-before-2024-election", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-15T18:25:52.473696Z", "published_at": "2024-10-15T22:04:20.851489Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.657481Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-15T22:04:20.851487Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-27T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-27T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T22:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T15:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28858, "title": "Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?", "created_at": "2024-10-15T18:25:52.473847Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T15:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-17T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-17T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T22:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-11T22:59:23.145936Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-27T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-27T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Joe Rogan Experience](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Joe_Rogan_Experience) (JRE) is a podcast hosted by [Joe Rogan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Rogan) a comedian, actor, and commentator. Joe Rogan's [website](https://www.joerogan.com/) describes the JRE as:\r\n\r\n>a long form conversation hosted by comedian Joe Rogan with friends and guests that have included comedians, actors, musicians, MMA fighters, authors, artists, and beyond.\r\n\r\nThe JRE has been very popular ranking as the most popular podcast of the year on Spotify for the years 2021, [2022](https://variety.com/2022/digital/news/joe-rogan-spotify-top-podcast-2022-1235444743/), and [2023](https://variety.com/2023/digital/news/spotify-top-podcasts-2023-list-joe-rogan-deal-renewal-1235809680/). Its listeners are disproportionally [young men](https://business.yougov.com/content/47483-whos-listening-to-the-joe-rogan-experience-men-mostly), and it has developed a mixed reputation, [criticized by some](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/10/opinions/joe-rogan-myth-spotify-joseph/index.html) for peddling conspiracies and offensive content, and praised by others for a commitment to [free speech](https://theoccidentalnews.com/opinions/2019/10/21/joe-rogans-podcast-reiterates-the-importance-of-free-speech/2898978) through talking openly about controversial issues and for the breadth of topics covered and the [curiosity](https://danielmiessler.com/p/explaining-the-popularity-of-joe-rogans-podcast/) of its host.\r\n\r\nOn October 15, 2024, news sources [reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-could-join-podcaster-joe-rogan-an-interview-sources-2024-10-15/) that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris may be considering an appearance on the show in a bid to appeal to young men, citing unnamed sources.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, the date of the US general election, a Joe Rogan Experience episode featuring Kamala Harris is publicly released.", "fine_print": "Previews or subscriber-only content will not be sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 28906, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729991202.207586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729991202.207586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06204636870377738 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.299191519167601, 3.5414213148575335, 0.7988080456297753, 0.0, 0.4984929521129984, 0.18640265488766805, 0.17976611604325327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08346609532897402, 0.6618246694340459, 0.009514982201565289, 0.0, 0.09194887133059908, 0.03921825810959266, 1.0, 0.0052619857942816685, 0.02069706247742786, 0.004155532194542278, 0.0, 0.011295907652000815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013286097205509028, 0.0391375041447012, 0.09215390124464654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03472799489688131, 0.0, 0.0015287348614981507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031787604112146167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07544621294165546, 0.7616925955377141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017967096637953702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023132514010442214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.90097896798117, "peer_score": 19.57640989346276, "coverage": 0.9930982236091996, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9930982236091996, "spot_peer_score": 29.34352591973324, "baseline_archived_score": 71.90097896798117, "peer_archived_score": 19.57640989346276, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.34352591973324 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Joe Rogan Experience](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Joe_Rogan_Experience) (JRE) is a podcast hosted by [Joe Rogan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Rogan) a comedian, actor, and commentator. Joe Rogan's [website](https://www.joerogan.com/) describes the JRE as:\r\n\r\n>a long form conversation hosted by comedian Joe Rogan with friends and guests that have included comedians, actors, musicians, MMA fighters, authors, artists, and beyond.\r\n\r\nThe JRE has been very popular ranking as the most popular podcast of the year on Spotify for the years 2021, [2022](https://variety.com/2022/digital/news/joe-rogan-spotify-top-podcast-2022-1235444743/), and [2023](https://variety.com/2023/digital/news/spotify-top-podcasts-2023-list-joe-rogan-deal-renewal-1235809680/). Its listeners are disproportionally [young men](https://business.yougov.com/content/47483-whos-listening-to-the-joe-rogan-experience-men-mostly), and it has developed a mixed reputation, [criticized by some](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/10/opinions/joe-rogan-myth-spotify-joseph/index.html) for peddling conspiracies and offensive content, and praised by others for a commitment to [free speech](https://theoccidentalnews.com/opinions/2019/10/21/joe-rogans-podcast-reiterates-the-importance-of-free-speech/2898978) through talking openly about controversial issues and for the breadth of topics covered and the [curiosity](https://danielmiessler.com/p/explaining-the-popularity-of-joe-rogans-podcast/) of its host.\r\n\r\nOn October 15, 2024, news sources [reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-could-join-podcaster-joe-rogan-an-interview-sources-2024-10-15/) that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris may be considering an appearance on the show in a bid to appeal to young men, citing unnamed sources." }, { "id": 28905, "title": "Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before November 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tim-walz-cease-to-be-kamala-harrisss-running-mate-before-november-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-15T16:19:58.361069Z", "published_at": "2024-10-15T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.695843Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 283, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T16:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-15T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28857, "title": "Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before November 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-15T16:19:58.361069Z", "open_time": "2024-10-15T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T16:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T16:25:37.613262Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 31, 1972, the Democratic nominee for vice president, Thomas Eagleton, withdrew his candidacy. Information had come out that in the 1960s he had received electrical shock treatments for what was described at the time as nervous exhaustion and depression. This is an example of the unknown unknowns that can change the course of history.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if Tim Walz ceases to be the Democratic Party's official candidate for Vice President in the 2024 cycle, for any reason, before October 1, 2024. If this does not happen, this question closes as No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28905, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729520251.949026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.036000000000000004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07333333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729520251.949026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.036000000000000004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07333333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.964, 0.036000000000000004 ], "means": [ 0.19516835451050557 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6311325752055879, 1.8144969508179019, 1.8325806759530492, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 2.0974259019422314, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.5281659971738475 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 266, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 31, 1972, the Democratic nominee for vice president, Thomas Eagleton, withdrew his candidacy. 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This is an example of the unknown unknowns that can change the course of history." }, { "id": 28903, "title": "Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?", "short_title": "Will North Korea perform a nuclear test before 2025?", "url_title": "Will North Korea perform a nuclear test before 2025?", "slug": "will-north-korea-perform-a-nuclear-test-before-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-15T14:11:04.059702Z", "published_at": "2024-10-15T18:32:28.218789Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.496908Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-15T18:32:28.218787Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T13:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28855, "title": "Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-15T14:11:04.059808Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T13:47:51.200919Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "North Korea's nuclear program has a long history, but the [first North Korean nuclear test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test) was conducted in 2006. Its max yield was smaller than expected, with most sources estimating it as less than 1 kiloton of TNT. Since then, North Korea has conducted five more tests, with [the last one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test) taking place in 2017 and having a max yield between 50 and 260 kilotons. \n\nRecent reports suggest that North Korea is planning a seventh nuclear test to coincide with the 2024 US Presidential Election. According to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/north-korea-looking-at-nuke-test-near-us-vote-spy-agency-says):\n\n> Detonating a nuclear device would send a strong signal that no matter who wins the US presidential race, North Korea will press ahead with its atomic ambitions as it develops weapons that have the ability to strike America and its allies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if North Korea conducts a nuclear test after October 15, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nIf no such reports are available before January 7, 2025, this question will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "Note that this question closes on November 8, 2024.\n\nFor purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.", "post_id": 28903, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731069756.559026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.079 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731069756.559026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.079 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.921, 0.079 ], "means": [ 0.09109687789807483 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3624825259146508, 0.6195470556045188, 0.8920927153740326, 0.025074711505037588, 1.021842690046333, 1.6944218752136544, 0.1595248979349609, 2.611031690140958, 0.19030555133802302, 1.3176801570360102, 3.06393017357448, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.060498466076804244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8076450563077007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2936757196039515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19519530604924692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029741897568960904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05144413896398135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12585700968552796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10452470613861276 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.66546779657794, "peer_score": 12.607146987028331, "coverage": 0.9999616284657074, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999616284657074, "spot_peer_score": 6.545537687413783, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 87.66546779657794, "peer_archived_score": 12.607146987028331, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.545537687413783, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 168, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "North Korea's nuclear program has a long history, but the [first North Korean nuclear test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test) was conducted in 2006. Its max yield was smaller than expected, with most sources estimating it as less than 1 kiloton of TNT. Since then, North Korea has conducted five more tests, with [the last one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test) taking place in 2017 and having a max yield between 50 and 260 kilotons. \n\nRecent reports suggest that North Korea is planning a seventh nuclear test to coincide with the 2024 US Presidential Election. According to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/north-korea-looking-at-nuke-test-near-us-vote-spy-agency-says):\n\n> Detonating a nuclear device would send a strong signal that no matter who wins the US presidential race, North Korea will press ahead with its atomic ambitions as it develops weapons that have the ability to strike America and its allies." }, { "id": 28858, "title": "Will Tiktok be Banned in the US or Sold before January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Tiktok be Banned in the US or Sold before Jan 20, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Tiktok be Banned in the US or Sold before Jan 20, 2025?", "slug": "will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-us-or-sold-before-jan-20-2025", "author_id": 202409, "author_username": "EdwardStoppard", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-14T13:07:01.035346Z", "published_at": "2024-10-15T16:48:38.091215Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.836801Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-15T16:48:38.091213Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T14:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T14:05:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-19T14:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-17T01:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-18T16:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T14:35:14.591247Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T14:35:14.591247Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28813, "title": "Will Tiktok be Banned in the US or Sold before January 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-14T13:07:01.035426Z", "open_time": "2024-10-18T16:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-22T16:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-22T16:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-19T14:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-17T01:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-17T01:42:27.438850Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T14:05:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T14:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Tiktok be banned in the US or sold?\n\nIn 2020, the [Trump administration issued an executive order aiming to ban TikTok in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok_v._Trump#:~:text=On%20August%206%2C%202020%2C%20Donald,on%20the%20information%20TikTok%20collects.), citing national security concerns over its parent company, ByteDance, which is based in China. The administration claimed that TikTok [could collect data on U.S. users and potentially share it with the Chinese government](https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/08/tech/tiktok-data-china/index.html) under China’s national security laws. The proposed ban led to a heated legal battle, and TikTok responded by negotiating a potential sale of its U.S. operations to American companies like Oracle and Walmart, though these [deals were never finalized](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/03/17/tiktok-sale-ban-challenges/).\n\nWhile Trump’s 2020 executive order was [halted later that year by a federal judge](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/07/944039053/u-s-judge-halts-trumps-tiktok-ban-the-2nd-court-to-fully-block-the-action?t=1609087334425), and [rescinded by President Biden in 2021](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/22/tech/tiktok-trump-ban-dismissed/index.html), the battle between the U.S. government and TikTok continued. In 2023, Biden signed a separate bill into law that would [force a sale of TikTok by Jan. 19, 2025 or see it banned](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/tech/congress-tiktok-ban-what-next/index.html), sparking a legal battle that has carried into 2024. [TikTok has been fighting the law in court](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/tiktok-ban-bill-why-congress-when-takes-effect-rcna148981https://www.nbcnews.com/business/tiktok-ban-bill-why-congress-when-takes-effect-rcna148981), arguing that it unfairly targets the app and violates the First Amendment rights of its 170 million U.S. users. TikTok's legal team, led by Andrew Pincus, [contends that the government must meet 'strict scrutiny' standards](https://www.wesa.fm/2024-09-16/tiktok-argued-against-its-u-s-ban-in-court-today-heres-what-happened), meaning it must provide a compelling reason for a ban and prove that all other options have been exhausted. The government, represented by Department of Justice lawyer Daniel Tenny, claims that [TikTok’s vast data collection poses a national security risk, potentially allowing foreign adversaries to exploit the data](https://www.npr.org/2024/09/16/g-s1-23194/tiktok-us-ban-appeals-court). Meanwhile, [TikTok creators have also joined the legal fight, asserting that users have the right to engage with foreign-owned platforms](https://www.tubefilter.com/2024/05/15/creators-sue-united-states-tiktok-ban-federal-court-case/), similar to how Americans interact with entities like Al-Jazeera or Spotify.\n\nDespite this, fears over Chinese influence and the potential misuse of U.S. citizens’ personal data remains at the center of the debate. [Several U.S. states have already implemented partial bans](https://www.nytimes.com/article/tiktok-ban.html#:~:text=More%20than%2030%20states%2C%20and,data%20to%20use%20the%20app.), especially on government devices. Internationally, TikTok has faced similar scrutiny, with countries like [India fully banning the app in 2020](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/14/tech/india-us-tiktok-ban-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html), while the [European Union continues to investigate its data practices under GDPR](https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-opens-formal-proceedings-against-tiktok-under-digital-services-act-2024-02-19/).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as Yes if, before January 20, 2025, TikTok is either banned from operating in the United States or the US-facing components of TikTok are sold to a non-Chinese entity.\n\nFor TikTok to be considered banned in the US, the app has to be either unavailable to use or unavailable to download from both the iOS App Store and the Google Play Store. Either of these two conditions have to hold true for 30 consecutive days, starting before January 19.\n\nFor TikTok's US-facing components to be considered sold, all the following conditions must be met:\n\n- Majority Ownership or Control: ByteDance must transfer a majority ownership stake or operational control of TikTok’s US operations to a non-Chinese entity.\n\n- Completion of Deal: The deal must be finalized, with all necessary legal and regulatory approvals obtained from U.S. authorities and any required Chinese government approvals or any additional federal or state regulatory approvals relevant to the sale, including those related to telecommunications or foreign investment.\n\n- Public Confirmation: The deal must be confirmed through official statements from ByteDance or relevant U.S. government agencies or through official press releases published on government websites.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28858, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737082584.248154, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737082584.248154, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0011709591939386712 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.0924139535191895, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 94.18543755757722, "peer_score": 4.450048119972793, "coverage": 0.9491165670681369, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9491165670681369, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 94.18543755757722, "peer_archived_score": 4.450048119972793, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Tiktok be banned in the US or sold?\n\nIn 2020, the [Trump administration issued an executive order aiming to ban TikTok in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok_v._Trump#:~:text=On%20August%206%2C%202020%2C%20Donald,on%20the%20information%20TikTok%20collects.), citing national security concerns over its parent company, ByteDance, which is based in China. The administration claimed that TikTok [could collect data on U.S. users and potentially share it with the Chinese government](https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/08/tech/tiktok-data-china/index.html) under China’s national security laws. The proposed ban led to a heated legal battle, and TikTok responded by negotiating a potential sale of its U.S. operations to American companies like Oracle and Walmart, though these [deals were never finalized](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/03/17/tiktok-sale-ban-challenges/).\n\nWhile Trump’s 2020 executive order was [halted later that year by a federal judge](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/07/944039053/u-s-judge-halts-trumps-tiktok-ban-the-2nd-court-to-fully-block-the-action?t=1609087334425), and [rescinded by President Biden in 2021](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/22/tech/tiktok-trump-ban-dismissed/index.html), the battle between the U.S. government and TikTok continued. In 2023, Biden signed a separate bill into law that would [force a sale of TikTok by Jan. 19, 2025 or see it banned](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/tech/congress-tiktok-ban-what-next/index.html), sparking a legal battle that has carried into 2024. [TikTok has been fighting the law in court](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/tiktok-ban-bill-why-congress-when-takes-effect-rcna148981https://www.nbcnews.com/business/tiktok-ban-bill-why-congress-when-takes-effect-rcna148981), arguing that it unfairly targets the app and violates the First Amendment rights of its 170 million U.S. users. TikTok's legal team, led by Andrew Pincus, [contends that the government must meet 'strict scrutiny' standards](https://www.wesa.fm/2024-09-16/tiktok-argued-against-its-u-s-ban-in-court-today-heres-what-happened), meaning it must provide a compelling reason for a ban and prove that all other options have been exhausted. The government, represented by Department of Justice lawyer Daniel Tenny, claims that [TikTok’s vast data collection poses a national security risk, potentially allowing foreign adversaries to exploit the data](https://www.npr.org/2024/09/16/g-s1-23194/tiktok-us-ban-appeals-court). Meanwhile, [TikTok creators have also joined the legal fight, asserting that users have the right to engage with foreign-owned platforms](https://www.tubefilter.com/2024/05/15/creators-sue-united-states-tiktok-ban-federal-court-case/), similar to how Americans interact with entities like Al-Jazeera or Spotify.\n\nDespite this, fears over Chinese influence and the potential misuse of U.S. citizens’ personal data remains at the center of the debate. [Several U.S. states have already implemented partial bans](https://www.nytimes.com/article/tiktok-ban.html#:~:text=More%20than%2030%20states%2C%20and,data%20to%20use%20the%20app.), especially on government devices. Internationally, TikTok has faced similar scrutiny, with countries like [India fully banning the app in 2020](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/14/tech/india-us-tiktok-ban-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html), while the [European Union continues to investigate its data practices under GDPR](https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-opens-formal-proceedings-against-tiktok-under-digital-services-act-2024-02-19/)." }, { "id": 28855, "title": "Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?", "short_title": "Will Erik Ten Hag be fired before 2025?", "url_title": "Will Erik Ten Hag be fired before 2025?", "slug": "will-erik-ten-hag-be-fired-before-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-13T23:15:16.441971Z", "published_at": "2024-10-15T18:50:30.640808Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.210356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-15T18:50:30.640806Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-28T06:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-11T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-28T06:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28812, "title": "Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-13T23:15:16.442044Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-28T06:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-28T16:39:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-11T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-28T06:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Erik ten Hag](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_ten_Hag)'s tenure as Manchester United's manager, which began in 2022, has seen a mix of highs and lows. After a successful first season where the team secured a top-four finish and [won the EFL Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_EFL_Cup_final), United's form in the 2024/25 season has sharply declined. The club has experienced its worst-ever start to a Premier League season, [sitting 14th in the table](https://www.manutd.com/en/matches/league-table) as of October 13th, and they have struggled to score goals, leading to significant pressure on Ten Hag.\r\n\r\nIn an October meeting, it [was decided](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/erik-ten-hag-break-golden-060000505.html) that Erik Ten Hag will continue in Manchester United for the time being. However, the next few games will be crucial and they might determine whether Ten Hag will be fired during the next international break of November 11-19.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Erik Ten Hag has stopped being Manchester United's manager, according to credible sources. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "A temporary absence will not resolve this question as **Yes**, as long as it is announced as such and Erik Ten Hag has resumed his duties as manager before January 7, 2025.\r\n\r\nIf Ten Hag stops being Manchester United's manager, but is assigned to another role, this question will resolve **Yes** as long as another individual is chosen as the club's manager before January 7, 2025. If no one is chosen as the manager, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\r\n\r\nNote that this question has an early closing date of November 11, 2024.", "post_id": 28855, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730132485.275681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730132485.275681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.8950099281293646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11083038735431396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006407544366770682, 0.0, 0.02678127518047141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15207970849988256, 0.0, 0.11172232827103717, 0.0, 0.061894126969327355, 0.16824568062905945, 0.0, 0.2047065967472563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3463878000654409, 0.22518626811013776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08011262814822796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.201735432899662, 0.09924199395337108, 0.05898651487899913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030815271309911525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008376459204076786, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.07889090770323962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42052548288015196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4573391763706963, 0.0, 9.24502111351451 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.2429502699214334, "coverage": 0.45103874549518763, "baseline_score": -0.8229441463632697, "spot_peer_score": 13.514346096487756, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999545077000919, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "peer_archived_score": 1.2429502699214334, "baseline_archived_score": -0.8229441463632697, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.514346096487756, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Erik ten Hag](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_ten_Hag)'s tenure as Manchester United's manager, which began in 2022, has seen a mix of highs and lows. After a successful first season where the team secured a top-four finish and [won the EFL Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_EFL_Cup_final), United's form in the 2024/25 season has sharply declined. The club has experienced its worst-ever start to a Premier League season, [sitting 14th in the table](https://www.manutd.com/en/matches/league-table) as of October 13th, and they have struggled to score goals, leading to significant pressure on Ten Hag.\r\n\r\nIn an October meeting, it [was decided](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/erik-ten-hag-break-golden-060000505.html) that Erik Ten Hag will continue in Manchester United for the time being. However, the next few games will be crucial and they might determine whether Ten Hag will be fired during the next international break of November 11-19." }, { "id": 28854, "title": "Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?", "short_title": "UK MP defection, suspension, or resignation before 2025?", "url_title": "UK MP defection, suspension, or resignation before 2025?", "slug": "uk-mp-defection-suspension-or-resignation-before-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-13T21:20:47.830750Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T18:41:38.176229Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.181797Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-22T18:41:38.176227Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-27T17:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-27T17:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28811, "title": "Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-13T21:20:47.830837Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-27T17:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-30T11:44:24.943813Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-27T17:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United Kingdom has seen several MPs suspended from their parties, resign, or change political allegiance in recent years due to various factors such as political scandals, internal party conflicts, or shifting personal or ideological stances. Since the July 4, 2024 general election, seven Labour MPs [were suspended](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c978m6z3egno) for voting against the party on an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit cap, and one [resigned](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/mp-rosie-duffield-resigns-labour-keir-starmer-zxm6h8lzq) over the so-called [freebies controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Labour_Party_freebies_controversy).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 15, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, at least one Member of the UK Parliament gets suspended from their party, resigns, or changes their allegiance, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "- Any change of allegiance, voluntary or not, will resolve this question as **Yes**, including but not limited to an independent MP becoming a member of a party.\n- Only party allegiance is relevant for this question. An MP joining or leaving a technical group will not affect resolution in any way.", "post_id": 28854, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730206502.700789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730206502.700789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9921780923654039 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.11525585627893538, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 8.541072406777698 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 4.4507499570287035, "peer_score": 1.078594694748686, "coverage": 0.059652542242202636, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9988402895947551, "spot_peer_score": 13.148332023124345, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 4.4507499570287035, "peer_archived_score": 1.078594694748686, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.148332023124345, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United Kingdom has seen several MPs suspended from their parties, resign, or change political allegiance in recent years due to various factors such as political scandals, internal party conflicts, or shifting personal or ideological stances. Since the July 4, 2024 general election, seven Labour MPs [were suspended](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c978m6z3egno) for voting against the party on an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit cap, and one [resigned](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/mp-rosie-duffield-resigns-labour-keir-starmer-zxm6h8lzq) over the so-called [freebies controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Labour_Party_freebies_controversy)." }, { "id": 28852, "title": "[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?", "short_title": "Moldova EU referendum valid turnout?", "url_title": "Moldova EU referendum valid turnout?", "slug": "moldova-eu-referendum-valid-turnout", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-13T10:31:53.562862Z", "published_at": "2024-10-15T21:54:15.956610Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.906226Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-15T21:54:15.956608Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-21T08:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28809, "title": "[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?", "created_at": "2024-10-13T10:31:53.562957Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-17T21:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-17T21:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-21T08:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-21T08:11:35.389472Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 20, alongside [presidential elections](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22788/moldovan-election-winner-2024/), Moldova will hold a referendum. If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments from derailing the ongoing accession process which the country, one of Europe's poorest, initiated simultaneously with Ukraine.\n\nThe campaign, and the overall strengthening of ties with Europe, are being [interfered with by the Kremlin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia). 1,500 Russian troops still occupy the Transnistria region of the former Soviet republic, where an estimated €100M has been funneled to fund the vote-buying scheme against the referendum.\n\nIn order to amend the Constitution, the referendum must have a majority of \"Yes\" votes, which is the object of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28851/yes-wins-moldova-eu-referendum/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if official results report that enough votes have been cast in the referendum to make it valid.", "fine_print": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Moldovan_European_Union_membership_referendum) reports the threshold as a minimum of 33%; regardless if that, 1/3, or a different value is the exact amount, what matters for this question is that the threshold for validity is met.\n\nThe actual numbers of \"Yes\" and \"No\" votes are immaterial to this question; it resolves as **Yes** as long as the turnout meets that which is required for a valid referendum, even if most voters choose \"No\".", "post_id": 28852, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729368978.965487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729368978.965487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.08999999999999997, 0.91 ], "means": [ 0.8974173448796308 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12492461416876266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 1.2576020436694422, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.2164335258165257, 1.4050776483619933, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.3526517851691326, 1.5568583184119975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.8598674825769, "peer_score": 2.3846363941499886, "coverage": 0.980649494172991, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.980649494172991, "spot_peer_score": -0.22163508476800106, "baseline_archived_score": 70.8598674825769, "peer_archived_score": 2.3846363941499886, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.22163508476800106 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 20, alongside [presidential elections](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22788/moldovan-election-winner-2024/), Moldova will hold a referendum. If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments from derailing the ongoing accession process which the country, one of Europe's poorest, initiated simultaneously with Ukraine.\n\nThe campaign, and the overall strengthening of ties with Europe, are being [interfered with by the Kremlin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia). 1,500 Russian troops still occupy the Transnistria region of the former Soviet republic, where an estimated €100M has been funneled to fund the vote-buying scheme against the referendum.\n\nIn order to amend the Constitution, the referendum must have a majority of \"Yes\" votes, which is the object of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28851/yes-wins-moldova-eu-referendum/)." }, { "id": 28851, "title": "[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of \"Yes\" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?", "short_title": "\"Yes\" wins Moldova EU referendum?", "url_title": "\"Yes\" 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28808, "title": "[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of \"Yes\" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?", "created_at": "2024-10-13T10:19:30.492965Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-22T02:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-22T05:21:42.166607Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { 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If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments from derailing the ongoing accession process which the country, one of Europe's poorest, initiated simultaneously with Ukraine.\n\nThe campaign, and the overall strengthening of ties with Europe, are being [interfered with by the Kremlin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia). 1,500 Russian troops still occupy the Transnistria region of the former Soviet republic, where an estimated €100M has been funneled to fund the vote-buying scheme against the referendum.\n\nIn order to amend the Constitution, the referendum must reach a turnout of 33%, which is the object of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28852/moldova-eu-referendum-valid-turnout/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if official results report that more votes have been cast for the \"Yes\" option than the \"No\" option in the referendum.", "fine_print": "Turnout is immaterial to the resolution, as are blank/spoiled ballots. 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If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments from derailing the ongoing accession process which the country, one of Europe's poorest, initiated simultaneously with Ukraine.\n\nThe campaign, and the overall strengthening of ties with Europe, are being [interfered with by the Kremlin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia). 1,500 Russian troops still occupy the Transnistria region of the former Soviet republic, where an estimated €100M has been funneled to fund the vote-buying scheme against the referendum.\n\nIn order to amend the Constitution, the referendum must reach a turnout of 33%, which is the object of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28852/moldova-eu-referendum-valid-turnout/)." }, { "id": 28847, "title": "Will assisted dying for terminally ill adults be legal for the majority of United Kingdom residents before 2030?", "short_title": "Will the United Kingdom legalise assisted dying before 2030", "url_title": "Will the United Kingdom legalise assisted dying before 2030", "slug": "will-the-united-kingdom-legalise-assisted-dying-before-2030", "author_id": 113983, "author_username": "alt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-12T12:57:06.454529Z", "published_at": "2024-10-19T18:40:11.858332Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T04:33:39.822543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-19T18:40:11.858330Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-21T18:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28805, "title": "Will assisted dying for terminally ill adults be legal for the majority of United Kingdom residents before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-10-12T12:57:06.454626Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T18:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T18:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A bill which would allow terminally ill adults with six months or fewer to live to get medical help to end their own lives [has been introduced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3g9yvdrxzzo) in the House of Lords, by former Labour Justice Secretary Lord Falconer. This was followed by a similar bill, [introduced](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/oct/16/england-and-wales-assisted-dying-bill-formally-launched-in-house-of-commons) to the House of Commons by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater. A debate and initial vote [is likely](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y8q41g5j6o) to take place later this year.\n\nThe two bills:\n- [Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults Bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3741)\n- [The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3774)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 1 January 2030, there is a legal way for more than 50% of terminally ill adult residents of the United Kigndom to request assistance to end their life.", "fine_print": "- The definition of \"terminally ill\" is intentionally left vague to allow for flexibility in interpretation, with the understanding that it generally refers to individuals with an incurable condition expected to lead to death.\n- A broad legalisation of assisted dying would resolve this question as **Yes**, it does not need to be restricted to terminally ill adults, as long as the majority of them are included.\n- A law that would require the adults to fulfill additional criteria before they can request assistance to end their life (e.g., go through a mental health assessment) would still resolve this question as **Yes**.\n- This does not need to be legal in the whole of the United Kingdom. For example, if there is a legal way only in England this question will resolve as **Yes**, as it includes a majority of the UK population.\n- The assistance must be provided by a UK healthcare provider. UK residents being allowed to travel abroad for that purpose is immaterial to the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 28847, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758083609.41679, "end_time": 1759261001.581, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758083609.41679, "end_time": 1759261001.581, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7154632614013723 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28634989082754175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8944823903749313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6103652071358351 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A bill which would allow terminally ill adults with six months or fewer to live to get medical help to end their own lives [has been introduced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3g9yvdrxzzo) in the House of Lords, by former Labour Justice Secretary Lord Falconer. This was followed by a similar bill, [introduced](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/oct/16/england-and-wales-assisted-dying-bill-formally-launched-in-house-of-commons) to the House of Commons by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater. A debate and initial vote [is likely](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y8q41g5j6o) to take place later this year.\n\nThe two bills:\n- [Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults Bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3741)\n- [The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3774)" } ] }
