Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
{ "count": 6699, "next": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 41636, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 14.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"China attacks/blockades Taiwan in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"China attacks/blockades Taiwan in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-china-attacksblockades-taiwan-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:21.421417Z", "published_at": "2026-01-20T05:48:15Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-20T07:19:00.246727Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:21.873855Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T07:18:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T07:18:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T02:32:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-20T05:48:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41379, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 14.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:21.421938Z", "open_time": "2026-01-20T05:48:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-20T07:18:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-20T07:18:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T02:32:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T07:18:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T07:18:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41139\n- Original question title: Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 14.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if during 2026, any of the following occur:\n> \n> 1. China conducts a military attack on any land territory held by Taiwan.\n> 2. China conducts a deliberate military attack on Taiwan's military forces or coast guard.\n> 3. Most commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 days due to physical actions by China.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * To qualify, a military attack must physically affect Taiwan's land territory or military forces, cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> * The reduction of port traffic must be directly due to Chinese physical actions, cyberattacks, threats, or unrelated closures do not qualify.\n> * For the purposes of this question, ports administered by Taiwan include but are not limited to ports in Penghu, Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Green Island, Orchid Island, and Xiaoliuqiu.\n> * If China gets control of any land controlled by Taiwan without Taiwan's explicit permission, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the end of the [Chinese Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War) and the fleeing of the [Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) (ROC) to Taiwan, the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) (PRC) has attempted to gain control over the island.\n> \n> During the 20th century, there were [numerous spikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Strait_Crises) in tension, with the PRC and ROC engaging in active combat during the earlier history.\n> \n> In the 2010s and 2020s, tensions have ramped up once again, with repeated [PRC incursions](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-taiwan-military-nato-summit-b2577926.html) into the ROC's airspace, PRC warships [encountering](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/new-zealand-navy-encountered-taiwan-warship-during-strait-transit-last-month-2025-12-09/) ROC warships, and a reaffirming of the PRC long standing position that it may use military force to unify with the ROC.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41139,\"question_id\":40840,\"last_cp\":0.14}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41139) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-31 02:32:42 is higher than 14.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 14.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-31 02:32:42, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"China attacks/blockades Taiwan in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41636, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768892847.976193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42531156600590325 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768892847.976193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42531156600590325 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.360903365089518 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 11.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41139\n- Original question title: Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 14.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if during 2026, any of the following occur:\n> \n> 1. China conducts a military attack on any land territory held by Taiwan.\n> 2. China conducts a deliberate military attack on Taiwan's military forces or coast guard.\n> 3. Most commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 days due to physical actions by China.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * To qualify, a military attack must physically affect Taiwan's land territory or military forces, cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> * The reduction of port traffic must be directly due to Chinese physical actions, cyberattacks, threats, or unrelated closures do not qualify.\n> * For the purposes of this question, ports administered by Taiwan include but are not limited to ports in Penghu, Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Green Island, Orchid Island, and Xiaoliuqiu.\n> * If China gets control of any land controlled by Taiwan without Taiwan's explicit permission, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the end of the [Chinese Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War) and the fleeing of the [Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) (ROC) to Taiwan, the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) (PRC) has attempted to gain control over the island.\n> \n> During the 20th century, there were [numerous spikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Strait_Crises) in tension, with the PRC and ROC engaging in active combat during the earlier history.\n> \n> In the 2010s and 2020s, tensions have ramped up once again, with repeated [PRC incursions](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-taiwan-military-nato-summit-b2577926.html) into the ROC's airspace, PRC warships [encountering](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/new-zealand-navy-encountered-taiwan-warship-during-strait-transit-last-month-2025-12-09/) ROC warships, and a reaffirming of the PRC long standing position that it may use military force to unify with the ROC.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41139,\"question_id\":40840,\"last_cp\":0.14}}`" }, { "id": 41634, "title": "Will PEG's market close price on 2026-01-27 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?", "short_title": "PEG's close price rises?", "url_title": "PEG's close price rises?", "slug": "pegs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:13.374006Z", "published_at": "2026-01-20T03:03:24Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-20T04:34:00.185536Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:13.789374Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T04:33:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T04:33:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-27T08:38:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-20T03:03:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41377, "title": "Will PEG's market close price on 2026-01-27 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:13.374477Z", "open_time": "2026-01-20T03:03:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-20T04:33:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-20T04:33:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-27T08:38:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T04:33:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T04:33:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is PEG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:07) is 79.42. You can find more information about Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PEG\n\nPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, operates in electric and gas utility, and nuclear generation businesses in the United States. It operates through PSE&G and PSEG Power segments. The PSE&G segment transmits electricity; distributes electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers; and appliance services and repairs to customers through its service territory, as well as invests in solar generation projects, and energy efficiency and related programs. The PSEG Power segment engages in nuclear generation businesses; and supplies power and natural gas to nuclear power plants and gas storage facilities activities. As of December 31, 2024, it had electric transmission and distribution system of 25,000 circuit miles and 869,000 poles; 57 switching stations with an installed capacity of 40,000 megavolt-amperes (MVA), and 234 substations with an installed capacity of 10,750 MVA; four electric distribution headquarters and five electric sub-headquarters; 18,000 miles of gas mains, 12 gas distribution headquarters, two sub-headquarters, and two meter shop, as well as 54 natural gas metering and regulating stations; and 158 MegaWatts defined conditions of installed PV solar capacity. Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated was founded in 1903 and is based in Newark, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"PEG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of PEG. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-20, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "PEG's close price rises?", "post_id": 41634, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768882208.371989, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768882208.371989, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5036692614493486 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 3.0, 4.0, 10.0, 1.0, 4.0, 4.0, 15.0, 7.0, 7.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is PEG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:07) is 79.42. You can find more information about Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PEG\n\nPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, operates in electric and gas utility, and nuclear generation businesses in the United States. It operates through PSE&G and PSEG Power segments. The PSE&G segment transmits electricity; distributes electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers; and appliance services and repairs to customers through its service territory, as well as invests in solar generation projects, and energy efficiency and related programs. The PSEG Power segment engages in nuclear generation businesses; and supplies power and natural gas to nuclear power plants and gas storage facilities activities. As of December 31, 2024, it had electric transmission and distribution system of 25,000 circuit miles and 869,000 poles; 57 switching stations with an installed capacity of 40,000 megavolt-amperes (MVA), and 234 substations with an installed capacity of 10,750 MVA; four electric distribution headquarters and five electric sub-headquarters; 18,000 miles of gas mains, 12 gas distribution headquarters, two sub-headquarters, and two meter shop, as well as 54 natural gas metering and regulating stations; and 158 MegaWatts defined conditions of installed PV solar capacity. Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated was founded in 1903 and is based in Newark, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"PEG\"}}`" }, { "id": 41633, "title": "Will ARE's market close price on 2026-01-27 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?", "short_title": "ARE's close price rises?", "url_title": "ARE's close price rises?", "slug": "ares-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:09.524482Z", "published_at": "2026-01-20T02:26:30Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-20T03:57:00.116942Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:09.928750Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T03:56:30Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T03:56:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-27T14:43:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-20T02:26:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41376, "title": "Will ARE's market close price on 2026-01-27 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:09.524914Z", "open_time": "2026-01-20T02:26:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-20T03:56:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-20T03:56:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-27T14:43:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T03:56:30Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T03:56:30Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ARE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:00) is 57.89. You can find more information about Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARE\n\nAlexandria, an S&P 500 company, is a best-in-class, mission-driven life science REIT making a positive and lasting impact on the world. With our founding in 1994, Alexandria pioneered the life science real estate niche. Alexandria is the preeminent and longest-tenured owner, operator, and developer of collaborative Megacampus ecosystems in AAA life science innovation cluster locations, including Greater Boston, the San Francisco Bay Area, San Diego, Seattle, Maryland, Research Triangle and New York City.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ARE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ARE. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-20, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "ARE's close price rises?", "post_id": 41633, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768881338.075675, "end_time": 1771559738.006, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768881338.075675, "end_time": 1771559738.006, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.47419519512993136 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 19.0, 4.0, 4.0, 10.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 9.0, 2.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ARE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:00) is 57.89. You can find more information about Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARE\n\nAlexandria, an S&P 500 company, is a best-in-class, mission-driven life science REIT making a positive and lasting impact on the world. With our founding in 1994, Alexandria pioneered the life science real estate niche. Alexandria is the preeminent and longest-tenured owner, operator, and developer of collaborative Megacampus ecosystems in AAA life science innovation cluster locations, including Greater Boston, the San Francisco Bay Area, San Diego, Seattle, Maryland, Research Triangle and New York City.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ARE\"}}`" }, { "id": 41632, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2026-01-28 for the Metaculus question \"Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Netanyahu leave office in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Netanyahu leave office in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-netanyahu-leave-office-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:05.673291Z", "published_at": "2026-01-20T01:47:45Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-20T03:18:00.184985Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:06.143754Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T03:17:45Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T03:17:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-28T08:01:08Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-20T01:47:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41375, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2026-01-28 for the Metaculus question \"Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:05.673739Z", "open_time": "2026-01-20T01:47:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-20T03:17:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-20T03:17:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-28T08:01:08Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T03:17:45Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T03:17:45Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40966\n- Original question title: Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 35.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel.\n> \n> This includes Netanyahu getting suspended, an acting Prime Minister being appointed, or any other temporary circumstance that removes his power, if it lasts for at least 14 consecutive days entirely within 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the Prime Minister of Israel as of December 2025, having held the office from 1996 to 1999, from 2009 to 2021 and from 2022 to 2025. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having led the government for a total of over 18 years.\n> \n> During Netanyahu's leadership, he has experienced substantial challenges including charges of [bribery and fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu), [arrest warrants from the ICC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Israeli_leaders) due to Israel's actions in Gaza, and mixed support from the Israeli public.\n> \n> With an [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election) required before October 27, 2026, Netanyahu's government faces differing opinion polls, though some pollsters have been implicated in breach of trust and are known to be affiliated with Netanyahu.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40966,\"question_id\":40674,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40966) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-28 08:01:08 is higher than 35.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 35.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-28 08:01:08, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Netanyahu leave office in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41632, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768878730.928255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.395 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768878730.928255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.395 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.605, 0.395 ], "means": [ 0.3827823114026033 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 8.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40966\n- Original question title: Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 35.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel.\n> \n> This includes Netanyahu getting suspended, an acting Prime Minister being appointed, or any other temporary circumstance that removes his power, if it lasts for at least 14 consecutive days entirely within 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the Prime Minister of Israel as of December 2025, having held the office from 1996 to 1999, from 2009 to 2021 and from 2022 to 2025. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having led the government for a total of over 18 years.\n> \n> During Netanyahu's leadership, he has experienced substantial challenges including charges of [bribery and fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu), [arrest warrants from the ICC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Israeli_leaders) due to Israel's actions in Gaza, and mixed support from the Israeli public.\n> \n> With an [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election) required before October 27, 2026, Netanyahu's government faces differing opinion polls, though some pollsters have been implicated in breach of trust and are known to be affiliated with Netanyahu.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40966,\"question_id\":40674,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`" }, { "id": 41630, "title": "Will BKNG's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?", "short_title": "BKNG's close price rises?", "url_title": "BKNG's close price rises?", "slug": "bkngs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:57.757020Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T23:14:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-20T00:45:00.252379Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:58.279667Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T00:44:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T00:44:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T00:37:57Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T23:14:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41373, "title": "Will BKNG's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:57.757429Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T23:14:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-20T00:44:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-20T00:44:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T00:37:57Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T00:44:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T00:44:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Booking Holdings Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BKNG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:08) is 5115.91. You can find more information about Booking Holdings Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BKNG\n\nBooking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company operates Booking.com, which offers online accommodation reservations; and Priceline, which provides discount travel reservations services, as well as online accommodation, flight, rental car reservation services, vacation packages, cruises, activity, and hotel distribution services for partners and affiliates. It also operates Agoda that offers online accommodation reservation, flight, ground transportation, and activities reservation services. In addition, the company operates KAYAK, an online meta-search service that allows consumers to search and compare travel itineraries and prices; and OpenTable for booking online restaurant reservations, as well as reservation management services to restaurants. Further, it offers travel-related insurance products and restaurant management services to consumers, travel service providers, and restaurants; and advertising services. The company was formerly known as The Priceline Group Inc. and changed its name to Booking Holdings Inc. in February 2018. Booking Holdings Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BKNG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BKNG. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-20, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "BKNG's close price rises?", "post_id": 41630, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768868337.586017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.495 ], "centers": [ 0.5316666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768868337.586017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.495 ], "centers": [ 0.5316666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4683333333333333, 0.5316666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.5297674467298491 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 5.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 13.0, 8.0, 6.0, 18.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Booking Holdings Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BKNG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:08) is 5115.91. You can find more information about Booking Holdings Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BKNG\n\nBooking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company operates Booking.com, which offers online accommodation reservations; and Priceline, which provides discount travel reservations services, as well as online accommodation, flight, rental car reservation services, vacation packages, cruises, activity, and hotel distribution services for partners and affiliates. It also operates Agoda that offers online accommodation reservation, flight, ground transportation, and activities reservation services. In addition, the company operates KAYAK, an online meta-search service that allows consumers to search and compare travel itineraries and prices; and OpenTable for booking online restaurant reservations, as well as reservation management services to restaurants. Further, it offers travel-related insurance products and restaurant management services to consumers, travel service providers, and restaurants; and advertising services. The company was formerly known as The Priceline Group Inc. and changed its name to Booking Holdings Inc. in February 2018. Booking Holdings Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BKNG\"}}`" }, { "id": 41629, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Sudan ceasefire in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Sudan ceasefire in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-sudan-ceasefire-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:53.767833Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T22:22:15Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T23:53:00.130691Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:54.300489Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T23:52:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T23:52:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T07:54:14Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T22:22:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41372, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:53.768339Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T22:22:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T23:52:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T23:52:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T07:54:14Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T23:52:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T23:52:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41144\n- Original question title: Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 31.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if a bilateral ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either\n> \n> * last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026\n> \n> or\n> \n> * be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.\n> \n> If either the Rapid Support Forces or Sudanese Armed Forces are completely defeated, such that they control no permanent territory, this question will also resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> A ceasefire will qualify if it is mutually agreed by the RSF and SAF and applies to all fighting against the other by both sides.\n> \n> A ceasefire will have considered to have lasted if both the RSF and SAF agree that is has remained in effect and full scale fighting has not occurred. Minor ceasefire violations, while both sides agree to continue the ceasefire will not impact this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On 15 April 2023, Sudan collapsed into [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_civil_war_\\(2023%E2%80%93present\\)) between the [Rapid Support Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces) (RSF) and the [Sudanese Armed Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_Armed_Forces) (SAF). Following the [2021 Sudanese Coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudanese_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) and subsequent ousting of former leader [Omar al-Bashir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar_al-Bashir), the rival factions gained substantial control of Sudan.\n> \n> Although initially promising elections, tensions between the two forces escalated, and the RSF began to recruit soldiers before mobilizing on April 13, and attacking SAF bases on April 15, 2025.\n> \n> The civil war has led to hundreds of thousands dead and displaced millions, while [famine struck](https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/news-stories/stories/sudans-children-are-suffering-how-conflict-destroying-their-future_en) across the nation. On 22 May, 2025, a brief one day [ceasefire was agreed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65683681), however following it's collapse, little concrete action has been taken towards peace.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41144,\"question_id\":40845,\"last_cp\":0.31}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41144) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-30 07:54:14 is higher than 31.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 31.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-30 07:54:14, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Sudan ceasefire in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41629, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768866670.546785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2375 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768866670.546785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2375 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3459429002332146 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41144\n- Original question title: Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 31.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if a bilateral ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either\n> \n> * last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026\n> \n> or\n> \n> * be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.\n> \n> If either the Rapid Support Forces or Sudanese Armed Forces are completely defeated, such that they control no permanent territory, this question will also resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> A ceasefire will qualify if it is mutually agreed by the RSF and SAF and applies to all fighting against the other by both sides.\n> \n> A ceasefire will have considered to have lasted if both the RSF and SAF agree that is has remained in effect and full scale fighting has not occurred. Minor ceasefire violations, while both sides agree to continue the ceasefire will not impact this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On 15 April 2023, Sudan collapsed into [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_civil_war_\\(2023%E2%80%93present\\)) between the [Rapid Support Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces) (RSF) and the [Sudanese Armed Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_Armed_Forces) (SAF). Following the [2021 Sudanese Coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudanese_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) and subsequent ousting of former leader [Omar al-Bashir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar_al-Bashir), the rival factions gained substantial control of Sudan.\n> \n> Although initially promising elections, tensions between the two forces escalated, and the RSF began to recruit soldiers before mobilizing on April 13, and attacking SAF bases on April 15, 2025.\n> \n> The civil war has led to hundreds of thousands dead and displaced millions, while [famine struck](https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/news-stories/stories/sudans-children-are-suffering-how-conflict-destroying-their-future_en) across the nation. On 22 May, 2025, a brief one day [ceasefire was agreed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65683681), however following it's collapse, little concrete action has been taken towards peace.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41144,\"question_id\":40845,\"last_cp\":0.31}}`" }, { "id": 41626, "title": "Will CMS's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "short_title": "CMS's close price rises?", "url_title": "CMS's close price rises?", "slug": "cmss-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:41.992498Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T20:24:25Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T21:55:00.082568Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:42.431711Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T21:54:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T21:54:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T07:25:12Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T20:24:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41369, "title": "Will CMS's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:41.992957Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T20:24:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T21:54:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T21:54:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T07:25:12Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T21:54:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T21:54:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "CMS Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CMS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:55) is 71.68. You can find more information about CMS Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMS\n\nCMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan. The company operates through three segments: Electric Utility; Gas Utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy. The Electric Utility segment is involved in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity. This segment generates electricity through coal, wind, gas, renewable energy, oil, and nuclear sources. Its distribution system comprises 270 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 4 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 4,646 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 18 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 81,924 miles of electric distribution overhead lines; 9,775 miles of underground distribution lines; and 1,098 substations. The Gas Utility segment engages in the purchase, transmission, storage, distribution, and sale of natural gas, which includes 2,342 miles of transmission lines; 15 gas storage fields; 28,368 miles of distribution mains; and 8 compressor stations. The NorthStar Clean Energy segment is involved in the independent power production and marketing, including the development and operation of renewable generation. The company serves 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers, including residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Jackson, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CMS\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CMS. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-19, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "CMS's close price rises?", "post_id": 41626, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768859217.270097, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.512 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768859217.270097, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.512 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5339411694962193 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 9.0, 11.0, 9.0, 19.0, 4.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CMS Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CMS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:55) is 71.68. You can find more information about CMS Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMS\n\nCMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan. The company operates through three segments: Electric Utility; Gas Utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy. The Electric Utility segment is involved in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity. This segment generates electricity through coal, wind, gas, renewable energy, oil, and nuclear sources. Its distribution system comprises 270 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 4 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 4,646 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 18 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 81,924 miles of electric distribution overhead lines; 9,775 miles of underground distribution lines; and 1,098 substations. The Gas Utility segment engages in the purchase, transmission, storage, distribution, and sale of natural gas, which includes 2,342 miles of transmission lines; 15 gas storage fields; 28,368 miles of distribution mains; and 8 compressor stations. The NorthStar Clean Energy segment is involved in the independent power production and marketing, including the development and operation of renewable generation. The company serves 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers, including residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Jackson, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CMS\"}}`" }, { "id": 41624, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will OpenAI file for an IPO in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will OpenAI file for an IPO in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-openai-file-for-an-ipo-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:34.266840Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T18:56:18Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T20:27:00.118710Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:34.653615Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T20:26:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T20:26:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T12:06:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T18:56:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41367, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:34.267562Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T18:56:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T20:26:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T20:26:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T12:06:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T20:26:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T20:26:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41141\n- Original question title: Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI, a parent company, or any subsidiary that is primarily responsible for developing ChatGPT, files a public, non-confidential initial public registration statement ([SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp)) at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database before January 1, 2027.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If ChatGPT is renamed or is otherwise succeeded by a new model, the new model will qualify as \"ChatGPT\" for the purpose of this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [OpenAI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI) has been moving towards an [Initial Public Offering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering) (IPO), where it's for-profit subsidiary OpenAI Group PBC may be listed on a public stock exchange. \n> \n> During 2025, it has been reported that OpenAI is [targeting 2026-2027](https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-ipo-up-1-trillion-valuation-2025-10-29/) for their IPO, aiming to raise at least \\$60 billion with a valuation of \\~\\$1 trillion.\n> \n> If OpenAI is successful in raising that amount of money, it would be the [largest IPO in history](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/), exceeding both Saudi Aramco and Alibaba.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41141,\"question_id\":40842,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41141) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-30 12:06:21 is higher than 36.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 36.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-30 12:06:21, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will OpenAI file for an IPO in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41624, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768852275.833802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768852275.833802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.435519932004702 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41141\n- Original question title: Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI, a parent company, or any subsidiary that is primarily responsible for developing ChatGPT, files a public, non-confidential initial public registration statement ([SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp)) at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database before January 1, 2027.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If ChatGPT is renamed or is otherwise succeeded by a new model, the new model will qualify as \"ChatGPT\" for the purpose of this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [OpenAI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI) has been moving towards an [Initial Public Offering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering) (IPO), where it's for-profit subsidiary OpenAI Group PBC may be listed on a public stock exchange. \n> \n> During 2025, it has been reported that OpenAI is [targeting 2026-2027](https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-ipo-up-1-trillion-valuation-2025-10-29/) for their IPO, aiming to raise at least \\$60 billion with a valuation of \\~\\$1 trillion.\n> \n> If OpenAI is successful in raising that amount of money, it would be the [largest IPO in history](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/), exceeding both Saudi Aramco and Alibaba.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41141,\"question_id\":40842,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`" }, { "id": 41621, "title": "Will PANW's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "short_title": "PANW's close price rises?", "url_title": "PANW's close price rises?", "slug": "panws-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:22.427909Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T17:19:13Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T18:50:00.215383Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:22.962327Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T18:49:13Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T18:49:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T21:50:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T17:19:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41364, "title": "Will PANW's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:22.428378Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T17:19:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T18:49:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T18:49:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T21:50:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T18:49:13Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T18:49:13Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is PANW. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:54) is 187.66. You can find more information about Palo Alto Networks, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW\n\nPalo Alto Networks, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Japan. It offers Prisma Access, a secure access service edge solution; Strata Cloud Manager, a network security management solution; and Prisma AIRS to protect customers' entire AI ecosystem. It provides a comprehensive cloud native application protection platform; and Code to Cloud platform, as well as offers VM-Series and CN-Series virtual firewalls for inline network security on multi- and hybrid-cloud environments. It provides security operation solutions through the Cortex platform that includes Cortex XSIAM, an AI-driven security operations platform; Cortex XDR to prevent, detect, and respond to cybersecurity attacks; and Cortex XSOAR for security orchestration, automation, and response; and Cortex Xpanse for attack surface management, as well as offers threat intelligence and advisory services under the Unit 42 name. It provides subscription services covering the areas of threat prevention, malware and persistent threat, URL filtering, laptop and mobile device protection, DNS security, Internet of Things security, SaaS security API, and SaaS security inline; and threat intelligence, data loss prevention, services to resolve network disruptions, and sensitive data protection. It offers professional services, including architecture design and planning, implementation, configuration, and firewall migration; education services, such as certifications, as well as online and in-classroom training; and support services. It sells its products and services through its channel partners, as well as directly to enterprises, service providers, and government entities operating in various industries, including education, energy, financial services, government entities, healthcare, Internet and media, manufacturing, public sector, and telecommunications. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"PANW\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of PANW. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-19, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "PANW's close price rises?", "post_id": 41621, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768848412.537292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768848412.537292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5083683738915187 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 20.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 10.0, 10.0, 3.0, 13.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is PANW. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:54) is 187.66. You can find more information about Palo Alto Networks, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW\n\nPalo Alto Networks, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Japan. It offers Prisma Access, a secure access service edge solution; Strata Cloud Manager, a network security management solution; and Prisma AIRS to protect customers' entire AI ecosystem. It provides a comprehensive cloud native application protection platform; and Code to Cloud platform, as well as offers VM-Series and CN-Series virtual firewalls for inline network security on multi- and hybrid-cloud environments. It provides security operation solutions through the Cortex platform that includes Cortex XSIAM, an AI-driven security operations platform; Cortex XDR to prevent, detect, and respond to cybersecurity attacks; and Cortex XSOAR for security orchestration, automation, and response; and Cortex Xpanse for attack surface management, as well as offers threat intelligence and advisory services under the Unit 42 name. It provides subscription services covering the areas of threat prevention, malware and persistent threat, URL filtering, laptop and mobile device protection, DNS security, Internet of Things security, SaaS security API, and SaaS security inline; and threat intelligence, data loss prevention, services to resolve network disruptions, and sensitive data protection. It offers professional services, including architecture design and planning, implementation, configuration, and firewall migration; education services, such as certifications, as well as online and in-classroom training; and support services. It sells its products and services through its channel partners, as well as directly to enterprises, service providers, and government entities operating in various industries, including education, energy, financial services, government entities, healthcare, Internet and media, manufacturing, public sector, and telecommunications. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"PANW\"}}`" }, { "id": 41617, "title": "Will FISV's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "short_title": "FISV's close price rises?", "url_title": "FISV's close price rises?", "slug": "fisvs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:06.253893Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T15:24:43Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T16:55:00.184391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:06.928257Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T16:54:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T16:54:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T03:19:36Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T15:24:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41360, "title": "Will FISV's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:06.254335Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T15:24:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T16:54:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T16:54:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T03:19:36Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T16:54:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T16:54:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Fiserv, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FISV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:50) is 66.29. You can find more information about Fiserv, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FISV\n\nN/A\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FISV\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FISV. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-19, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "FISV's close price rises?", "post_id": 41617, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768840760.271328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.455 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768840760.271328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.455 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.545, 0.455 ], "means": [ 0.4643991573535506 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 16.0, 4.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 9.0, 5.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fiserv, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FISV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:50) is 66.29. You can find more information about Fiserv, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FISV\n\nN/A\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FISV\"}}`" }, { "id": 41616, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 24.00% on 2026-01-26 for the Metaculus question \"Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-eu-age-verification-on-social-mediaai-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:02.231018Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T13:56:33Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T15:27:00.119206Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:02.864111Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T15:26:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T15:26:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-26T14:39:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T13:56:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41359, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 24.00% on 2026-01-26 for the Metaculus question \"Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:02.231423Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T13:56:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T15:26:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T15:26:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-26T14:39:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T15:26:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T15:26:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41173\n- Original question title: Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 24.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, an EU Regulation or EU Directive is adopted that (i) requires at least one social media platform or AI chatbot to use mandatory age verification for EU users, or (ii) in the case of a Directive, requires Member States to ensure such an obligation is imposed on those services.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purpose of this question, mandatory age verification refers to verifying a user's age beyond self-declaration, through methods such as ID verification or facial analysis.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On November 26, 2025 the European Parliament [passed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/european-lawmakers-seek-eu-wide-minimum-age-access-ai-chatbots-social-media-2025-11-26/) a non-binding resolution calling upon social media platforms and AI chatbots to set a minimum age of 16 to access their services.\n> \n> Although carrying no legal weight, the resolution comes after similar laws have been passed around the world, with UK's [Online Safety Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Act_2023) granting the UK government the power to restrict a wide range of internet content and Australia's [Online Safety Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Amendment) banning Under-16s from using certain social media platforms.\n> \n> Facing significant criticism from [privacy rights organisations](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-09/snapchat-age-verification-privacy-concerns-social-media-ban/106095510), the laws have seen uncertainty around how age can be verified without substantial privacy violations as well as criticism of goals themselves, with many viewing social media as having substantial benefits.\n> \n> Nonetheless, European leaders have praised the Australian law, with [Denmark planning](https://apnews.com/article/denmark-social-media-ban-australia-1e96a3df3276cc2033a6f04effb89f51) to ban social media for Under-15s and [others calling](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-08/how-europe-may-follow-australias-teen-social-media-ban/106035946) for European level age verification laws.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41173,\"question_id\":40901,\"last_cp\":0.24}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41173) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-26 14:39:39 is higher than 24.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 24.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-26 14:39:39, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41616, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768835453.664634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768835453.664634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4295728279292103 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41173\n- Original question title: Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 24.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, an EU Regulation or EU Directive is adopted that (i) requires at least one social media platform or AI chatbot to use mandatory age verification for EU users, or (ii) in the case of a Directive, requires Member States to ensure such an obligation is imposed on those services.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purpose of this question, mandatory age verification refers to verifying a user's age beyond self-declaration, through methods such as ID verification or facial analysis.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On November 26, 2025 the European Parliament [passed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/european-lawmakers-seek-eu-wide-minimum-age-access-ai-chatbots-social-media-2025-11-26/) a non-binding resolution calling upon social media platforms and AI chatbots to set a minimum age of 16 to access their services.\n> \n> Although carrying no legal weight, the resolution comes after similar laws have been passed around the world, with UK's [Online Safety Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Act_2023) granting the UK government the power to restrict a wide range of internet content and Australia's [Online Safety Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Amendment) banning Under-16s from using certain social media platforms.\n> \n> Facing significant criticism from [privacy rights organisations](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-09/snapchat-age-verification-privacy-concerns-social-media-ban/106095510), the laws have seen uncertainty around how age can be verified without substantial privacy violations as well as criticism of goals themselves, with many viewing social media as having substantial benefits.\n> \n> Nonetheless, European leaders have praised the Australian law, with [Denmark planning](https://apnews.com/article/denmark-social-media-ban-australia-1e96a3df3276cc2033a6f04effb89f51) to ban social media for Under-15s and [others calling](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-08/how-europe-may-follow-australias-teen-social-media-ban/106035946) for European level age verification laws.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41173,\"question_id\":40901,\"last_cp\":0.24}}`" }, { "id": 41612, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 27.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-2nd-us-intervention-in-venezuela-by-april-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:46.307622Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T11:29:40Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T13:00:00.378916Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:46.717500Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:59:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:59:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T21:21:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T11:29:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41355, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 27.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:46.308021Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T11:29:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T12:59:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T12:59:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T21:21:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:59:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:59:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41485\n- Original question title: Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 27.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 7, 2026, but before May 1, 2026, the United States carries out an attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> * For the purpose of this question, Venezuela's territory refers to its land and internal waters. External waters such as territorial waters will not count.\n> * The peaceful presence of U.S. troops or personnel in Venezuela with the assent of Venezuela's government will not cause this question to resolve as **Yes**.\n> * The U.S. need not initiate a conflict in order for the question to resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a [surprise attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela) on Venezuela, bombing military bases and infrastructure and capturing and removing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the country. This attack was the apparent culmination of a [months-long buildup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_buildup_in_the_Caribbean_during_Operation_Southern_Spear) of U.S. naval forces in the Caribbean Sea which included multiple airstrikes on boats off the coast of Venezuela, allegedly piloted by drug traffickers.\n> \n> In the aftermath of the attack, there has been some confusion about the U.S. government's future intentions with respect to Venezuela. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that [the U.S. was going to \"run\" Venezuela](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/03/trump-venezuela-oil-industry) but also indicated that Venezuela's Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, would assume the presidency. (Rodríguez, for her part, denounced the attack and declared that Maduro remained the lawful President.) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/us/politics/rubio-military-quarantine-venezuela-oil.html) that the U.S. would be involved in governing or occupying Venezuela, indicating that the U.S. simply intended to continue to put financial pressure on Venezuela's oil industry. Trump has also asserted that Rodríguez would cooperate with the U.S. government, stating \"we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so.\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41485,\"question_id\":41209,\"last_cp\":0.27}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41485) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-31 21:21:45 is higher than 27.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 27.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-31 21:21:45, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41612, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768827413.607543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768827413.607543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.625, 0.375 ], "means": [ 0.38510972525266157 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 14.0, 0.0, 3.0, 8.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41485\n- Original question title: Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 27.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 7, 2026, but before May 1, 2026, the United States carries out an attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> * For the purpose of this question, Venezuela's territory refers to its land and internal waters. External waters such as territorial waters will not count.\n> * The peaceful presence of U.S. troops or personnel in Venezuela with the assent of Venezuela's government will not cause this question to resolve as **Yes**.\n> * The U.S. need not initiate a conflict in order for the question to resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a [surprise attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela) on Venezuela, bombing military bases and infrastructure and capturing and removing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the country. This attack was the apparent culmination of a [months-long buildup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_buildup_in_the_Caribbean_during_Operation_Southern_Spear) of U.S. naval forces in the Caribbean Sea which included multiple airstrikes on boats off the coast of Venezuela, allegedly piloted by drug traffickers.\n> \n> In the aftermath of the attack, there has been some confusion about the U.S. government's future intentions with respect to Venezuela. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that [the U.S. was going to \"run\" Venezuela](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/03/trump-venezuela-oil-industry) but also indicated that Venezuela's Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, would assume the presidency. (Rodríguez, for her part, denounced the attack and declared that Maduro remained the lawful President.) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/us/politics/rubio-military-quarantine-venezuela-oil.html) that the U.S. would be involved in governing or occupying Venezuela, indicating that the U.S. simply intended to continue to put financial pressure on Venezuela's oil industry. Trump has also asserted that Rodríguez would cooperate with the U.S. government, stating \"we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so.\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41485,\"question_id\":41209,\"last_cp\":0.27}}`" }, { "id": 41610, "title": "Will EQIX's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "short_title": "EQIX's close price rises?", "url_title": "EQIX's close price rises?", "slug": "eqixs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:38.197472Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T11:17:37Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T12:48:00.087640Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:38.605783Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:47:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:47:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T14:41:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T11:17:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41353, "title": "Will EQIX's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:38.197878Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T11:17:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T12:47:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T12:47:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T14:41:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:47:37Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:47:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Equinix, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EQIX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:57) is 801.78. You can find more information about Equinix, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQIX\n\nEquinix, Inc. shortens the path to boundless connectivity anywhere in the world. Its digital infrastructure, data center footprint and interconnected ecosystems empower innovations that enhance our work, life and planet. Equinix connects economies, countries, organizations and communities, delivering seamless digital experiences and cutting-edge AIquickly, efficiently and everywhere.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EQIX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of EQIX. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-19, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "EQIX's close price rises?", "post_id": 41610, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768825941.560984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.5413893967093236 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5549201532320136 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768825941.560984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.5413893967093236 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5549201532320136 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4586106032906764, 0.5413893967093236 ], "means": [ 0.5345556423900292 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 10.0, 11.0, 6.0, 22.0, 4.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Equinix, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EQIX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:57) is 801.78. You can find more information about Equinix, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQIX\n\nEquinix, Inc. shortens the path to boundless connectivity anywhere in the world. Its digital infrastructure, data center footprint and interconnected ecosystems empower innovations that enhance our work, life and planet. Equinix connects economies, countries, organizations and communities, delivering seamless digital experiences and cutting-edge AIquickly, efficiently and everywhere.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EQIX\"}}`" }, { "id": 41609, "title": "Will CEG's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "short_title": "CEG's close price rises?", "url_title": "CEG's close price rises?", "slug": "cegs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:34.211869Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T10:57:53Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T12:28:00.114705Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:34.622765Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:27:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:27:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:13:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T10:57:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41352, "title": "Will CEG's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:34.212289Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T10:57:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T12:27:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T12:27:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:13:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:27:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:27:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Constellation Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CEG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:03) is 307.71. You can find more information about Constellation Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEG\n\nConstellation Energy Corporation produces and sells energy products and services in the United States. It operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. The company offers electricity, natural gas, energy-related products, and sustainable solutions. It has approximately 31,676 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. The company serves distribution utilities, municipalities, cooperatives, and commercial, industrial, public sector, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CEG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CEG. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-19, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "CEG's close price rises?", "post_id": 41609, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768825317.536488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.535 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768825317.536488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.535 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.4806056827401515 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 4.0, 3.0, 6.0, 5.0, 2.0, 8.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Constellation Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CEG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:03) is 307.71. You can find more information about Constellation Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEG\n\nConstellation Energy Corporation produces and sells energy products and services in the United States. It operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. The company offers electricity, natural gas, energy-related products, and sustainable solutions. It has approximately 31,676 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. The company serves distribution utilities, municipalities, cooperatives, and commercial, industrial, public sector, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CEG\"}}`" }, { "id": 41608, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-us-gain-sovereignty-over-any-part-of-greenland-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:26.817167Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T10:28:34Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:59:00.345232Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:27.311873Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T11:58:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T11:58:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T17:14:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41351, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:26.817904Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T11:58:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T11:58:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T17:14:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T11:58:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T11:58:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41502\n- Original question title: Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 7.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2027, at least one of the following occur:\n> \n> 1. A binding agreement which grants the United States sovereignty over any part of Greenland, even if implementation is pending, is formally agreed upon by the U.S government and either the Government of Denmark and/or the Government of Greenland\n> 2. The United States controls Greenland and any part of Greenland comes under formal sovereignty of the United States.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [White House says using US military is ‘always an option’ for seizing Greenland](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/06/trump-greenland-control-us-military):\n> \n> > In January 2026, the White House stated that using the US military to acquire Greenland was “always an option,” prompting strong pushback from Denmark, Greenland, and European leaders. Greenland’s government has repeatedly stated that it does not wish to become part of the United States.\n> \n> > “President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region. The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief’s disposal,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41502,\"question_id\":41231,\"last_cp\":0.07}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41502) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-31 17:14:35 is higher than 7.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 7.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-31 17:14:35, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41608, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768822644.894271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768822644.894271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6875, 0.3125 ], "means": [ 0.3546735510979334 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41502\n- Original question title: Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 7.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2027, at least one of the following occur:\n> \n> 1. A binding agreement which grants the United States sovereignty over any part of Greenland, even if implementation is pending, is formally agreed upon by the U.S government and either the Government of Denmark and/or the Government of Greenland\n> 2. The United States controls Greenland and any part of Greenland comes under formal sovereignty of the United States.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [White House says using US military is ‘always an option’ for seizing Greenland](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/06/trump-greenland-control-us-military):\n> \n> > In January 2026, the White House stated that using the US military to acquire Greenland was “always an option,” prompting strong pushback from Denmark, Greenland, and European leaders. Greenland’s government has repeatedly stated that it does not wish to become part of the United States.\n> \n> > “President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region. The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief’s disposal,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41502,\"question_id\":41231,\"last_cp\":0.07}}`" }, { "id": 41605, "title": "Will ELV's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "short_title": "ELV's close price rises?", "url_title": "ELV's close price rises?", "slug": "elvs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:14.181565Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T08:58:56Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T10:29:00.110600Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:14.722676Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:56Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T19:37:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T08:58:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41348, "title": "Will ELV's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:14.182012Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T08:58:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T19:37:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:56Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:56Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Elevance Health, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ELV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:10) is 374.87. You can find more information about Elevance Health, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ELV\n\nElevance Health, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a health benefits company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Health Benefits, CarelonRx, Carelon Services, and Corporate & Other. The company offers a variety of health plans and services to individual, employer group risk-based and fee-based, BlueCard, Medicare, Medicaid, and FEP members; health products; a broad array of fee-based administrative managed care services; and specialty and other insurance products and services, such as stop loss, dental, vision, and supplemental health insurance benefits. It also operates in the pharmacy services business; and markets and offers pharmacy services, including home delivery and specialty pharmacies, claims adjudication, formulary management, pharmacy networks, rebate administration, a prescription drug database, and member services, as well as infusion services and injectable therapies through ambulatory infusion centers. In addition, the company provides healthcare related services and capabilities, including specialty care enablement and utilization management support for specialized clinical domains; behavioral health and comprehensive care management services; palliative care services and management; virtual care; and payment integrity, subrogation, clinical data exchange through its HealthOS platform, research and data, reporting and clinical analytics, information technology, and business process support services, as well as manages home health, post-acute institutional management, and durable medical equipment costs; and supports plans in managing home and community-based services. It provides its services under the Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Wellpoint, and Carelon brands. The company was formerly known as Anthem, Inc. and changed its name to Elevance Health, Inc. in June 2022. Elevance Health, Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ELV\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ELV. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-19, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "ELV's close price rises?", "post_id": 41605, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768818359.947306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.512 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768818359.947306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.512 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5351775516365098 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 6.0, 12.0, 6.0, 24.0, 6.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elevance Health, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ELV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:10) is 374.87. You can find more information about Elevance Health, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ELV\n\nElevance Health, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a health benefits company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Health Benefits, CarelonRx, Carelon Services, and Corporate & Other. The company offers a variety of health plans and services to individual, employer group risk-based and fee-based, BlueCard, Medicare, Medicaid, and FEP members; health products; a broad array of fee-based administrative managed care services; and specialty and other insurance products and services, such as stop loss, dental, vision, and supplemental health insurance benefits. It also operates in the pharmacy services business; and markets and offers pharmacy services, including home delivery and specialty pharmacies, claims adjudication, formulary management, pharmacy networks, rebate administration, a prescription drug database, and member services, as well as infusion services and injectable therapies through ambulatory infusion centers. In addition, the company provides healthcare related services and capabilities, including specialty care enablement and utilization management support for specialized clinical domains; behavioral health and comprehensive care management services; palliative care services and management; virtual care; and payment integrity, subrogation, clinical data exchange through its HealthOS platform, research and data, reporting and clinical analytics, information technology, and business process support services, as well as manages home health, post-acute institutional management, and durable medical equipment costs; and supports plans in managing home and community-based services. It provides its services under the Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Wellpoint, and Carelon brands. The company was formerly known as Anthem, Inc. and changed its name to Elevance Health, Inc. in June 2022. Elevance Health, Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ELV\"}}`" }, { "id": 41604, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New country winner of the 2026 World Cup?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New country winner of the 2026 World Cup?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-new-country-winner-of-the-2026-world-cup", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:10.081173Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T08:15:02Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T09:46:00.074156Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:10.565845Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T09:45:02Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T09:45:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T20:02:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T08:15:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41347, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:10.081687Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T08:15:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T09:45:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T09:45:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T20:02:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T09:45:02Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T09:45:02Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41090\n- Original question title: Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of [2026 FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup) is a country other than Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, or Spain.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) is a quadrennial [football](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football) competition organised by FIFA. The [2026 edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup), set to be jointly hosted Canada, Mexico and the United States, will take place from June 11 to July 19 2026.\n> \n> Despite beginning in 1930 and hosting competitions every 4 years, outside of World War 2, only a total of [8 countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIFA_World_Cup_finals) have ever won the title.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41090,\"question_id\":40795,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41090) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-30 20:02:55 is higher than 20.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 20.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-30 20:02:55, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New country winner of the 2026 World Cup?\"?", "post_id": 41604, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768815726.556658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33999999999999997 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768815726.556658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33999999999999997 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.33999999999999997 ], "means": [ 0.3319688895557805 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 7.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41090\n- Original question title: Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of [2026 FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup) is a country other than Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, or Spain.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) is a quadrennial [football](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football) competition organised by FIFA. The [2026 edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup), set to be jointly hosted Canada, Mexico and the United States, will take place from June 11 to July 19 2026.\n> \n> Despite beginning in 1930 and hosting competitions every 4 years, outside of World War 2, only a total of [8 countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIFA_World_Cup_finals) have ever won the title.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41090,\"question_id\":40795,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`" }, { "id": 41594, "title": "Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?", "short_title": "Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?", "url_title": "Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-attack-iran-before-april-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-17T18:58:49.294817Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T22:51:59Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T18:06:57.625816Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T22:57:26.955939Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T18:06:57.839627Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T18:06:57.839627Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41340, "title": "Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-17T18:58:49.295277Z", "open_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "In 1979, the people of Iran [overthrew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) the United States–backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and installed an Islamic government, [relations between the two countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have since ranged from hostile to non-existent ever since.\n\nDecades later, in his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump [increased pressure on Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations_during_the_first_Trump_administration) by means of sanctions, withdrew from an [international agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) to limit Iran's nuclear program, and [assassinated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani) the highest-ranking Iranian military official while they were in Iraq.\n\nIn June 2025, Israel launched an attack on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, sparking a [twelve-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between the countries, which ended shortly after the U.S. [dropped \"bunker-buster\" bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on three Iranian nuclear sites.\n\nIn December 2025, [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests) erupted across Iran in what has been described as the largest popular demonstrations in the country since the 1979 revolution. The protests take place in the context of an [economic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_economic_crisis) exacerbated by international sanctions, while the Iranian government has responded by [killing thousands of protesters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres). \n\nU.S. President Trump has previously [threatened](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-retaliation-if-trump-strikes-us-withdraws-some-personnel-bases-2026-01-14/) that the U.S. would intervene on behalf of the protesters, while he has also called for [\"new leadership\" for Iran](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/17/trump-to-politico-its-time-to-look-for-new-leadership-in-iran-00735528). Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah, [attempted to position](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-reza-pahlavi-trump-shah-63348442feefaaf1cdd7fffc142b2062) himself as a future leader of a secular Iranian state.\n\n[According to Sentinel](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes), a foresight team that aims to anticipate large-scale catastrophes:\n\n> Forecasters think there’s a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Iran's territory or military forces, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Iran's territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as ambiguous.", "short_title": "Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?", "post_id": 41594, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769449404.517866, "end_time": 1769593060.777, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769449404.517866, "end_time": 1769593060.777, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5281917691266378 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9496052055761556, 0.008259590827765978, 0.0, 0.0003479997114823738, 0.006779850153729823, 0.0, 0.002265842919544049, 0.17237106321193998, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12498186790410454, 0.16180686589194113, 0.2810535828138792, 0.02097533993706027, 0.08767211352345784, 0.8555868248117431, 0.0, 0.6921305661574962, 0.0, 0.0012090280028907684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09727232607706623, 0.08934501546556473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01111780621856027, 0.002030580068163086, 0.0, 0.04678886020864767, 0.151812353241977, 0.0, 0.002596210679352189, 0.0, 0.5884823613661859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7880674117361814, 0.0, 0.9287059756451964, 0.6361160049704044, 0.06751809014695846, 3.116378905460458, 0.7856324070826837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13259216830764584, 1.1682910697327278, 0.0, 0.47185298950068955, 0.0, 0.22090844419551603, 0.0, 0.3983615267089262, 0.0008677486979024548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8922676441364967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07773485381055162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31620771053350477, 0.46344445371667115, 0.0053899252640078775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18353319753873695, 0.0, 0.5360656180624765, 0.05844289739074164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20777047166518461, 0.0, 0.5571470135729721, 0.0, 0.5273058297294496 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 242, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1979, the people of Iran [overthrew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) the United States–backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and installed an Islamic government, [relations between the two countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have since ranged from hostile to non-existent ever since.\n\nDecades later, in his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump [increased pressure on Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations_during_the_first_Trump_administration) by means of sanctions, withdrew from an [international agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) to limit Iran's nuclear program, and [assassinated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani) the highest-ranking Iranian military official while they were in Iraq.\n\nIn June 2025, Israel launched an attack on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, sparking a [twelve-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between the countries, which ended shortly after the U.S. [dropped \"bunker-buster\" bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on three Iranian nuclear sites.\n\nIn December 2025, [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests) erupted across Iran in what has been described as the largest popular demonstrations in the country since the 1979 revolution. The protests take place in the context of an [economic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_economic_crisis) exacerbated by international sanctions, while the Iranian government has responded by [killing thousands of protesters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres). \n\nU.S. President Trump has previously [threatened](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-retaliation-if-trump-strikes-us-withdraws-some-personnel-bases-2026-01-14/) that the U.S. would intervene on behalf of the protesters, while he has also called for [\"new leadership\" for Iran](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/17/trump-to-politico-its-time-to-look-for-new-leadership-in-iran-00735528). Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah, [attempted to position](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-reza-pahlavi-trump-shah-63348442feefaaf1cdd7fffc142b2062) himself as a future leader of a secular Iranian state.\n\n[According to Sentinel](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes), a foresight team that aims to anticipate large-scale catastrophes:\n\n> Forecasters think there’s a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high." }, { "id": 41577, "title": "Will Jerome Powell cease to be a governor of the Federal Reserve Board before his term ends?", "short_title": "Jerome Powell out as Fed governor before term end?", "url_title": "Jerome Powell out as Fed governor before term end?", "slug": "jerome-powell-out-as-fed-governor-before-term-end", "author_id": 187638, "author_username": "Zsigmondy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-14T20:05:45.637469Z", "published_at": "2026-01-17T19:20:30Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T14:09:12.748964Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-17T19:21:00.894158Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-02-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-18T19:20:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41316, "title": "Will Jerome Powell cease to be a governor of the Federal Reserve Board before his term ends?", "created_at": "2026-01-14T20:05:45.637902Z", "open_time": "2026-01-18T19:20:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-22T19:20:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-22T19:20:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-02-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The [Federal Reserve Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/) is the governing body of the Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the United States of America. It is responsible for the development and implementation of monetary policy. Each of the seven governors is appointed to 14-year terms by the U.S. President.\n\n[Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) is currently serving as both the chair and as a governor of the Board. His term as chair is due to end on May 23, 2026, and his term as governor is due to end on January 31, 2028. It is customary for outgoing chairs to resign their governor position at the same time or shortly after.\n\nOn January 11, 2026, Powell made a [statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm) relating to a criminal investigation by the Department of Justice against him, resisting claims of impropriety in connection with ongoing renovations to the Fed's headquarters. Because the independence of central banks is [considered sacrosanct](https://www.reuters.com/business/global-central-bank-chiefs-plan-statement-support-feds-powell-2026-01-13/), [some](https://www.ft.com/content/c5bfbc6d-cd05-4f53-b3b0-5a2de80c139a) have suggested that Powell could stay on as governor in an attempt to safeguard the independence of the Federal Reserve from further attacks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Jerome Powell ceases to be a governor of the Federal Reserve Board before January 31, 2028, as reported by the [official Federal Reserve website](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm).", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Jerome Powell out as Fed governor before term end?", "post_id": 41577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769436542.121203, "end_time": 1771893569.525, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769436542.121203, "end_time": 1771893569.525, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.324044683809726 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.31074621516789036, 0.03449404060253258, 0.4246972034401506, 0.02510204527210512, 0.12257655399756638, 0.14311200059500814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8352869142110823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Federal Reserve Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/) is the governing body of the Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the United States of America. It is responsible for the development and implementation of monetary policy. Each of the seven governors is appointed to 14-year terms by the U.S. President.\n\n[Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) is currently serving as both the chair and as a governor of the Board. His term as chair is due to end on May 23, 2026, and his term as governor is due to end on January 31, 2028. It is customary for outgoing chairs to resign their governor position at the same time or shortly after.\n\nOn January 11, 2026, Powell made a [statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm) relating to a criminal investigation by the Department of Justice against him, resisting claims of impropriety in connection with ongoing renovations to the Fed's headquarters. Because the independence of central banks is [considered sacrosanct](https://www.reuters.com/business/global-central-bank-chiefs-plan-statement-support-feds-powell-2026-01-13/), [some](https://www.ft.com/content/c5bfbc6d-cd05-4f53-b3b0-5a2de80c139a) have suggested that Powell could stay on as governor in an attempt to safeguard the independence of the Federal Reserve from further attacks." }, { "id": 41568, "title": "Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?", "short_title": "US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?", "url_title": "US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?", "slug": "us-job-gain-from-dec-2025-to-feb-2026-less-than-100k", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-14T00:20:09.265974Z", "published_at": "2026-01-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-16T16:00:00.139888Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-14T00:20:09.774657Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-06T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T17:58:00.385228Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T17:58:00.385228Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41304, "title": "Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-14T00:20:09.266433Z", "open_time": "2026-01-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-06T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics [reports the total number of \"nonfarm\" employees](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS) in the U.S. economy; the total number of workers, not counting farm employees, household employees, the self-employed, and volunteers. For decades, outside of periods of recession, this number has gone steadily up. Unemployment and the stock market have historically been closely correlated: when [unemployment goes down](https://www.cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-market/unemployment-stock-market-correlation-one-chart), the stock market goes up, and vice versa.\n\nSince 2022 however, [employment growth has slowed](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/is-this-the-new-scariest-chart-in) while the stock market has continued to rise. This unprecedented phenomenon has been [attributed to](https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-12-26-the-2026-jobless-boom-why-the-economy-is-soaring-while-the-labor-market-freezes) the post-pandemic increase in interest rates and the contemporaneous AI-related stock boom (which some fear is a bubble).\n\nIn November 2025, the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees was 159.552 million. Previous values are available [from FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41337,\"question_id\":41037}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees for February 2026, minus the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees for December 2025, according to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS), is less than 100 thousand.\n\nThis question will resolve using the numbers from the Employment Situation for February 2026. Therefore, it will most probably use the initial estimates for February and the revised estimates for December 2025.", "fine_print": "This question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41337) which opened on 2026-01-12 16:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?", "post_id": 41568, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768578821.827681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768578821.827681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5936117045804842 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 4.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics [reports the total number of \"nonfarm\" employees](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS) in the U.S. economy; the total number of workers, not counting farm employees, household employees, the self-employed, and volunteers. For decades, outside of periods of recession, this number has gone steadily up. Unemployment and the stock market have historically been closely correlated: when [unemployment goes down](https://www.cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-market/unemployment-stock-market-correlation-one-chart), the stock market goes up, and vice versa.\n\nSince 2022 however, [employment growth has slowed](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/is-this-the-new-scariest-chart-in) while the stock market has continued to rise. This unprecedented phenomenon has been [attributed to](https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-12-26-the-2026-jobless-boom-why-the-economy-is-soaring-while-the-labor-market-freezes) the post-pandemic increase in interest rates and the contemporaneous AI-related stock boom (which some fear is a bubble).\n\nIn November 2025, the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees was 159.552 million. Previous values are available [from FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41337,\"question_id\":41037}}`" } ] }
