Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
{ "count": 6210, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 40381, "title": "Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-donald-trumps-100-tariff-on-china-take-effect-on-november-1-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-14T01:33:58.458335Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T13:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T15:00:00.281338Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-14T01:33:58.701950Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T13:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T12:43:48.898093Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T12:43:48.898093Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39935, "title": "Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-14T01:33:58.458752Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T13:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 10, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average [dropped](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/stock-market-today-live-updates.html) almost 900 points after US President Donald J. Trump [put](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/trump-trade-tariffs-china-software.html) an extra 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting on November 1, 2025, adding that the US would start blocking sales of \"any and all critical software\" to China. President Trump's tariff threat came in response to China [announcing](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-rare-earth-and-magnet-restrictions-threaten-us-defense-supply-chains) new restrictions on rare earth and magnet exports. Trump and the paramount leader of China, Xi Jinping, are [planning](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/10/trump-threatens-to-nix-meeting-with-chinas-xi-jinping-over-trade-tensions) to meet on October 31st at the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, though Trump has threatened to cancel the meeting.\n\nAccording to the international law firm of[ Reed Smith](https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/10/10/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/), baseline tariffs of 10% are currently implemented, with other tariffs ranging to 15% and 20% on \"Fentanyl\"-related products. Previous announced tariffs, such as a 200% tariff on China [threatened](https://cepr.net/publications/trump-proposes-200-percent-tariff-on-imports-from-china-xi-pushes-for-300-percent/) in August 2025, have been delayed. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40303,\"question_id\":39850}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on November 1, 2025, the United States has any implemented tariffs of 100% or more on the People's Republic of China that were not already in place as of October 13, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). One such credible source may be Reed Smith's [Trump 2.0 tariff tracker](https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/10/10/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40381, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760453754.489516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760453754.489516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.33546092592156906 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 19.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 10, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average [dropped](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/stock-market-today-live-updates.html) almost 900 points after US President Donald J. Trump [put](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/trump-trade-tariffs-china-software.html) an extra 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting on November 1, 2025, adding that the US would start blocking sales of \"any and all critical software\" to China. President Trump's tariff threat came in response to China [announcing](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-rare-earth-and-magnet-restrictions-threaten-us-defense-supply-chains) new restrictions on rare earth and magnet exports. Trump and the paramount leader of China, Xi Jinping, are [planning](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/10/trump-threatens-to-nix-meeting-with-chinas-xi-jinping-over-trade-tensions) to meet on October 31st at the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, though Trump has threatened to cancel the meeting.\n\nAccording to the international law firm of[ Reed Smith](https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/10/10/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/), baseline tariffs of 10% are currently implemented, with other tariffs ranging to 15% and 20% on \"Fentanyl\"-related products. Previous announced tariffs, such as a 200% tariff on China [threatened](https://cepr.net/publications/trump-proposes-200-percent-tariff-on-imports-from-china-xi-pushes-for-300-percent/) in August 2025, have been delayed. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40303,\"question_id\":39850}}`" }, { "id": 40377, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-shutdown-end-before-november-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-13T15:15:05.118909Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T09:15:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:42.721460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-13T15:15:42.306671Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T11:35:58.277505Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T11:35:58.277505Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39930, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-13T15:15:05.119383Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" According to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after October 12, 2025 and before November 1, 2025, US federal agencies in the Washington, DC area have a status of Open, according to the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event of material issues with the main resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40377, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761357452.481675, "end_time": 1761434129.491, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761357452.481675, "end_time": 1761434129.491, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3412472947172926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.225425551112417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7340267287201618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 156, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" According to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |" }, { "id": 40363, "title": "Will EXPE's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-17?", "short_title": "EXPE's close price rises?", "url_title": "EXPE's close price rises?", "slug": "expes-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:06.096099Z", "published_at": "2025-10-17T06:15:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:46:00.221832Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:06.311786Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T21:07:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-17T06:15:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39910, "title": "Will EXPE's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-17?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:06.096500Z", "open_time": "2025-10-17T06:15:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T21:07:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Expedia Group, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EXPE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:34) is 210.33. You can find more information about Expedia Group, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EXPE\n\nExpedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments. The B2C segment includes Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand offers various travel products and services; Hotels.com for lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; Orbitz, Travelocity, Wotif Group, ebookers, CheapTickets, Hotwire.com and CarRentals.com. The B2B segment provides various travel and non-travel companies including airlines, offline travel agents, online retailers, corporate travel management, and financial institutions who leverage its travel technology and tap into its diverse supply to augment their offerings and market Expedia Group rates and availabilities to its travelers. The trivago segment send referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites. In addition, the company provides brand advertising through online and offline channels, loyalty programs, mobile apps, and search engine marketing, as well as metasearch, social media, direct and personalized traveler communications on its websites, and through direct e-mail communication with its travelers. The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EXPE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of EXPE. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-17, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40363, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760684752.288563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760684752.288563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5012828014184396 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 16.0, 4.0, 4.0, 6.0, 2.0, 6.0, 2.0, 10.0, 5.0, 4.0, 9.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Expedia Group, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EXPE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:34) is 210.33. You can find more information about Expedia Group, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EXPE\n\nExpedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments. The B2C segment includes Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand offers various travel products and services; Hotels.com for lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; Orbitz, Travelocity, Wotif Group, ebookers, CheapTickets, Hotwire.com and CarRentals.com. The B2B segment provides various travel and non-travel companies including airlines, offline travel agents, online retailers, corporate travel management, and financial institutions who leverage its travel technology and tap into its diverse supply to augment their offerings and market Expedia Group rates and availabilities to its travelers. The trivago segment send referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites. In addition, the company provides brand advertising through online and offline channels, loyalty programs, mobile apps, and search engine marketing, as well as metasearch, social media, direct and personalized traveler communications on its websites, and through direct e-mail communication with its travelers. The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EXPE\"}}`" }, { "id": 40362, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Stronger 2025 Atlantic hurricane than Erin?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Stronger 2025 Atlantic hurricane than Erin?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-stronger-2025-atlantic-hurricane-than-erin", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:05.524086Z", "published_at": "2025-10-16T09:32:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T11:03:00.229013Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:05.904273Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-16T11:02:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-16T11:02:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T00:13:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-16T09:32:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39909, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:05.524585Z", "open_time": "2025-10-16T09:32:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-16T11:02:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-16T11:02:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T00:13:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-16T11:02:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-16T11:02:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39771\n- Original question title: Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if an Atlantic hurricane reaches maximum sustained winds of more than 160 mph before December 1, 2025.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The primary source for this question will be the [US National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc).\n\nOriginal background: \n> In August 2025, [Hurricane Erin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_\\(2025\\)) swept across the Atlantic Ocean and then moved through the northern Caribbean before skirting up the east coast of the United States and heading back out to sea. At its peak intensity, it reached 160 mph [maximum sustained wind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind), classifying it as a Category 5: the highest category on the [Saffir–Simpson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) hurricane-intensity scale.\n> \n> Still, it was no record-breaker. The most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record remains [Allen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen), which in 1980 reached maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. And more recently, [Hurricane Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton) reached 180 mph in October 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39771,\"question_id\":39214,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39771). If the community prediction on 2025-10-24 00:13:54 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40362, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760610608.417896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.295 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760610608.417896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.295 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.705, 0.295 ], "means": [ 0.3096759751773051 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 14.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39771\n- Original question title: Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if an Atlantic hurricane reaches maximum sustained winds of more than 160 mph before December 1, 2025.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The primary source for this question will be the [US National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc).\n\nOriginal background: \n> In August 2025, [Hurricane Erin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_\\(2025\\)) swept across the Atlantic Ocean and then moved through the northern Caribbean before skirting up the east coast of the United States and heading back out to sea. At its peak intensity, it reached 160 mph [maximum sustained wind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind), classifying it as a Category 5: the highest category on the [Saffir–Simpson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) hurricane-intensity scale.\n> \n> Still, it was no record-breaker. The most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record remains [Allen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen), which in 1980 reached maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. And more recently, [Hurricane Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton) reached 180 mph in October 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39771,\"question_id\":39214,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 40359, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 52.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Inditex Top 10 in EU (2025)?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Inditex Top 10 in EU (2025)?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-inditex-top-10-in-eu-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:04.216317Z", "published_at": "2025-10-15T15:04:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T16:35:00.197305Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:04.441078Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T16:34:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T16:34:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T18:01:20Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-15T15:04:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39906, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 52.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:04.216785Z", "open_time": "2025-10-15T15:04:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-15T16:34:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-15T16:34:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T18:01:20Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T16:34:37Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T16:34:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571\n- Original question title: Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 52.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, as of December 31, 2025 (or the previous trading date), Inditex is among the 10 largest companies by market capitalization in the European Union (EU). It will be resolved as **No** if it is below the 10th position or is not listed at all.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * [ <u>CompaniesMarketCap</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/european-union/largest-companies-in-the-eu-by-market-cap/) or an equivalent reliable source will be used as a reference.\n> * If specific data is not available for December 31, 2025, the last year-end closing will be used.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Inditex, the Spanish multinational known for owning brands such as Zara, is the [ <u>largest company in Spain by market capitalization</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) and a major player in international markets. As of February 2025, Inditex ranks 11th among Europe's largest companies by market capitalization, closely following Deutsche Telekom and Siemens. With a market capitalization of approximately $175 billion, Inditex would need to overtake Deutsche Telekom, currently valued at around $179.68 billion, to break into the top 10.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35571,\"question_id\":35021,\"last_cp\":0.52}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571). If the community prediction on 2025-10-24 18:01:20 is higher than 52.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40359, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760543746.198252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5525 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760543746.198252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5525 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.4887777777777777 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 2.0, 11.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 9.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571\n- Original question title: Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 52.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, as of December 31, 2025 (or the previous trading date), Inditex is among the 10 largest companies by market capitalization in the European Union (EU). It will be resolved as **No** if it is below the 10th position or is not listed at all.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * [ <u>CompaniesMarketCap</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/european-union/largest-companies-in-the-eu-by-market-cap/) or an equivalent reliable source will be used as a reference.\n> * If specific data is not available for December 31, 2025, the last year-end closing will be used.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Inditex, the Spanish multinational known for owning brands such as Zara, is the [ <u>largest company in Spain by market capitalization</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) and a major player in international markets. As of February 2025, Inditex ranks 11th among Europe's largest companies by market capitalization, closely following Deutsche Telekom and Siemens. With a market capitalization of approximately $175 billion, Inditex would need to overtake Deutsche Telekom, currently valued at around $179.68 billion, to break into the top 10.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35571,\"question_id\":35021,\"last_cp\":0.52}}`" }, { "id": 40358, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US attacks Venezuela before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US attacks Venezuela before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-attacks-venezuela-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:03.795204Z", "published_at": "2025-10-15T13:39:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T15:10:00.230185Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:04.019212Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T15:09:14Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T15:09:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-23T22:07:44Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-15T13:39:14Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39905, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:03.795652Z", "open_time": "2025-10-15T13:39:14Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-15T15:09:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-15T15:09:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-23T22:07:44Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T15:09:14Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T15:09:14Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39336\n- Original question title: Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 31.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n> \n> To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> \n> If it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n> \n> If an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n> \n> Due to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n> \n> During the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n> \n> After Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n> \n> On August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39336,\"question_id\":38713,\"last_cp\":0.31}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39336). If the community prediction on 2025-10-23 22:07:44 is higher than 31.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40358, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760540138.786741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760540138.786741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.525, 0.475 ], "means": [ 0.4987922998986828 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39336\n- Original question title: Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 31.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n> \n> To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> \n> If it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n> \n> If an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n> \n> Due to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n> \n> During the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n> \n> After Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n> \n> On August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39336,\"question_id\":38713,\"last_cp\":0.31}}`" }, { "id": 40357, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question \"Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI >85% in FrontierMath before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI >85% in FrontierMath before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-ai-85-in-frontiermath-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:03.341323Z", "published_at": "2025-10-15T08:39:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T10:10:00.264963Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:03.569888Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T10:09:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T10:09:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-23T02:02:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-15T08:39:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39904, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question \"Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:03.341774Z", "open_time": "2025-10-15T08:39:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-15T10:09:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-15T10:09:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-23T02:02:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T10:09:52Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T10:09:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562\n- Original question title: Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 19.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, by January 1, 2026, at least one AI system is documented to achieve greater than 85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark.\n> \n> The achievement must be reported in a document (such as a peer-reviewed paper, conference presentation, official benchmark publication, or a blog post by the AI developer). A simple reference to progress or internal assessments, without published performance results, will not qualify. If these results are not published, the question will be resolved as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> The FrontierMath benchmark, detailed on <u>Epoch AI’s [ FrontierMath page</u> ](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark), is designed to test cutting-edge mathematical reasoning in AI systems. It consists of challenging, non-trivial problems that require both symbolic and numerical reasoning, going far beyond the scope of standard mathematical benchmarks. As AI research is rapidly advancing—with progress on large language models (LLMs) and mathematical “reasoning” systems—achieving a score above 85% on FrontierMath would signal a significant advancement in the field.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35562,\"question_id\":35013,\"last_cp\":0.19}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562). If the community prediction on 2025-10-23 02:02:03 is higher than 19.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40357, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760604782.033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45142857142857146 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760604782.033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45142857142857146 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3935967578520771 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 18.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562\n- Original question title: Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 19.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, by January 1, 2026, at least one AI system is documented to achieve greater than 85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark.\n> \n> The achievement must be reported in a document (such as a peer-reviewed paper, conference presentation, official benchmark publication, or a blog post by the AI developer). A simple reference to progress or internal assessments, without published performance results, will not qualify. If these results are not published, the question will be resolved as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> The FrontierMath benchmark, detailed on <u>Epoch AI’s [ FrontierMath page</u> ](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark), is designed to test cutting-edge mathematical reasoning in AI systems. It consists of challenging, non-trivial problems that require both symbolic and numerical reasoning, going far beyond the scope of standard mathematical benchmarks. As AI research is rapidly advancing—with progress on large language models (LLMs) and mathematical “reasoning” systems—achieving a score above 85% on FrontierMath would signal a significant advancement in the field.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35562,\"question_id\":35013,\"last_cp\":0.19}}`" }, { "id": 40355, "title": "Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20?", "short_title": "Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20?", "url_title": "Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20?", "slug": "will-alaves-win-on-2025-10-20", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:02.502484Z", "published_at": "2025-10-15T05:22:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T06:53:00.327680Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:02.722469Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T06:52:59Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T06:52:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-15T05:22:59Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39902, "title": "Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:02.502967Z", "open_time": "2025-10-15T05:22:59Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-15T06:52:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-15T06:52:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T06:52:59Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T06:52:59Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"4329cbd5-2aa6-4a80-8ee2-84a2cacede68\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "In the upcoming LAL game, scheduled for October 20 at 3:00PM ET,\nIf Alaves wins, this market will resolve to “Yes”.\nIf Alaves loses, this market will resolve to “No”.\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve “No”.\nThis market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40355, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760597353.598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760597353.598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.3946258865248227 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 2.0, 7.0, 3.0, 11.0, 7.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"4329cbd5-2aa6-4a80-8ee2-84a2cacede68\"}}`" }, { "id": 40353, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"French protest with 600k participants before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"French protest with 600k participants before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-french-protest-with-600k-participants-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:01.428135Z", "published_at": "2025-10-15T01:49:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T03:20:00.243443Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:01.798402Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:19:02Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:19:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T12:23:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-15T01:49:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39900, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:01.428669Z", "open_time": "2025-10-15T01:49:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-15T03:19:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-15T03:19:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T12:23:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:19:02Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:19:02Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052\n- Original question title: Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 31.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer) officially reports a national total of 600,000 participants or more for a political protest before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Metaculus will rely on the French Ministry of the Interior and reports by credible sources to determine if the reported participants were for a single or multiple protests. In case of ambiguity, this question might resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n> \n> After a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40052,\"question_id\":39587,\"last_cp\":0.31}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052). If the community prediction on 2025-10-24 12:23:42 is higher than 31.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40353, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760497785.742817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760497785.742817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3466737012987013 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 16.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 8.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052\n- Original question title: Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 31.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer) officially reports a national total of 600,000 participants or more for a political protest before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Metaculus will rely on the French Ministry of the Interior and reports by credible sources to determine if the reported participants were for a single or multiple protests. In case of ambiguity, this question might resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n> \n> After a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40052,\"question_id\":39587,\"last_cp\":0.31}}`" }, { "id": 40351, "title": "Will SYK's market close price on 2025-10-23 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-14?", "short_title": "SYK's close price rises?", "url_title": "SYK's close price rises?", "slug": "syks-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:00.566217Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T22:09:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T23:40:00.407388Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:00.796764Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T23:39:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T23:39:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-23T01:50:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T22:09:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39898, "title": "Will SYK's market close price on 2025-10-23 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-14?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:00.566637Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T22:09:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T23:39:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T23:39:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-23T01:50:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T23:39:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T23:39:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Stryker Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is SYK. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:30) is 364.6. You can find more information about Stryker Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SYK\n\nStryker Corporation operates as a medical technology company. It operates through two segments, MedSurg and Neurotechnology, and Orthopaedics. The MedSurg and Neurotechnology segment offers surgical equipment, and surgical navigation systems, endoscopic and communications systems, patient handling, emergency medical equipment and intensive care disposable products, clinical communication and artificial intelligence-assisted virtual care platform technology, minimally invasive products for the treatment of acute ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, cranial, and maxillofacial and chest wall devices, as well as dural substitutes and sealants; traditional brain and open skull based surgical procedures products; and orthobiologic and biosurgery products, including synthetic bone grafts and vertebral augmentation products. The Orthopaedics segment provides implants for use in total joint replacements, such as hip, knee and shoulder, and trauma and extremities surgeries; thoracolumbar systems that include fixation, minimally invasive and interbody systems used in spinal injury, complex spine and degenerative therapies. The company sells its products to doctors, hospitals, and other healthcare facilities through company-owned subsidiaries and branches, as well as third-party dealers and distributors in approximately 75 countries. Stryker Corporation was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Portage, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"SYK\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of SYK. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-14, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40351, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760483096.125077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.515 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760483096.125077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.515 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5412357910906295 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 4.0, 7.0, 10.0, 19.0, 5.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Stryker Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is SYK. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:30) is 364.6. You can find more information about Stryker Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SYK\n\nStryker Corporation operates as a medical technology company. It operates through two segments, MedSurg and Neurotechnology, and Orthopaedics. The MedSurg and Neurotechnology segment offers surgical equipment, and surgical navigation systems, endoscopic and communications systems, patient handling, emergency medical equipment and intensive care disposable products, clinical communication and artificial intelligence-assisted virtual care platform technology, minimally invasive products for the treatment of acute ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, cranial, and maxillofacial and chest wall devices, as well as dural substitutes and sealants; traditional brain and open skull based surgical procedures products; and orthobiologic and biosurgery products, including synthetic bone grafts and vertebral augmentation products. The Orthopaedics segment provides implants for use in total joint replacements, such as hip, knee and shoulder, and trauma and extremities surgeries; thoracolumbar systems that include fixation, minimally invasive and interbody systems used in spinal injury, complex spine and degenerative therapies. The company sells its products to doctors, hospitals, and other healthcare facilities through company-owned subsidiaries and branches, as well as third-party dealers and distributors in approximately 75 countries. Stryker Corporation was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Portage, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"SYK\"}}`" }, { "id": 40350, "title": "Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-20?", "short_title": "Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-20?", "url_title": "Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-20?", "slug": "will-us-cremonese-win-on-2025-10-20", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:00.093145Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T19:37:13Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T21:08:00.275614Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:00.366194Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T21:07:13Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T21:07:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T19:37:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39897, "title": "Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-20?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:33:00.093688Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T19:37:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T21:07:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T21:07:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T21:07:13Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T21:07:13Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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Horton, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DHI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:33) is 151.58. You can find more information about D.R. Horton, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DHI\n\nD.R. Horton, Inc. operates as a homebuilding company in East, North, Southeast, South Central, Southwest, and Northwest regions in the United States. It engages in the acquisition and development of land; and construction and sale of residential homes in 125 markets across 36 states under the names of D.R. Horton. The company constructs and sells single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes, duplexes, and triplexes. It provides mortgage financing services; and title insurance policies, and examination and closing services, as well as engages in the residential lot development business. In addition, the company develops, constructs, owns, leases, and sells multi-family and single-family rental properties; and owns non-residential real estate, including ranch land and improvements. It primarily serves homebuyers. D.R. Horton, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DHI\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DHI. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-14, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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Horton, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DHI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:33) is 151.58. You can find more information about D.R. Horton, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DHI\n\nD.R. Horton, Inc. operates as a homebuilding company in East, North, Southeast, South Central, Southwest, and Northwest regions in the United States. It engages in the acquisition and development of land; and construction and sale of residential homes in 125 markets across 36 states under the names of D.R. Horton. The company constructs and sells single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes, duplexes, and triplexes. It provides mortgage financing services; and title insurance policies, and examination and closing services, as well as engages in the residential lot development business. In addition, the company develops, constructs, owns, leases, and sells multi-family and single-family rental properties; and owns non-residential real estate, including ranch land and improvements. It primarily serves homebuyers. D.R. Horton, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DHI\"}}`" }, { "id": 40347, "title": "Will ANET's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-14?", "short_title": "ANET's close price rises?", "url_title": "ANET's close price rises?", "slug": "anets-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:58.607499Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T17:27:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T18:58:00.220204Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:58.990306Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T18:57:56Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T18:57:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T22:03:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T17:27:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39894, "title": "Will ANET's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-14?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:58.608151Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T17:27:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T18:57:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T18:57:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T22:03:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T18:57:56Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T18:57:56Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Arista Networks Inc is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ANET. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:36) is 154.1. You can find more information about Arista Networks Inc at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ANET\n\nArista Networks Inc engages in the development, marketing, and sale of data-driven, client to cloud networking solutions for AI, data center, campus, and routing environments in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. Its cloud networking solutions consist of Extensible Operating System (EOS), a publish-subscribe state-sharing networking operating system offered in combination with a set of network applications. The company offers data center, cloud and AI networking, cognitive adjacencies, and cognitive network software and services. It also provides post contract customer support services, such as technical support, hardware repair and replacement parts beyond standard warranty, bug fixes, patches, and upgrade services. 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It's ticker is ANET. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:36) is 154.1. You can find more information about Arista Networks Inc at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ANET\n\nArista Networks Inc engages in the development, marketing, and sale of data-driven, client to cloud networking solutions for AI, data center, campus, and routing environments in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. Its cloud networking solutions consist of Extensible Operating System (EOS), a publish-subscribe state-sharing networking operating system offered in combination with a set of network applications. The company offers data center, cloud and AI networking, cognitive adjacencies, and cognitive network software and services. It also provides post contract customer support services, such as technical support, hardware repair and replacement parts beyond standard warranty, bug fixes, patches, and upgrade services. 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It's ticker is ARE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:31) is 73.92. You can find more information about Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARE\n\nAlexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (NYSE: ARE), an S&P 500 company, is a best-in-class, mission-driven life science REIT making a positive and lasting impact on the world. With our founding in 1994, Alexandria pioneered the life science real estate niche. Alexandria is the preeminent and longest-tenured owner, operator, and developer of collaborative Megacampus ecosystems in AAA life science innovation cluster locations, including Greater Boston, the San Francisco Bay Area, San Diego, Seattle, Maryland, Research Triangle, and New York City. 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It's ticker is ARE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:31) is 73.92. You can find more information about Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARE\n\nAlexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (NYSE: ARE), an S&P 500 company, is a best-in-class, mission-driven life science REIT making a positive and lasting impact on the world. With our founding in 1994, Alexandria pioneered the life science real estate niche. Alexandria is the preeminent and longest-tenured owner, operator, and developer of collaborative Megacampus ecosystems in AAA life science innovation cluster locations, including Greater Boston, the San Francisco Bay Area, San Diego, Seattle, Maryland, Research Triangle, and New York City. As of June 30, 2025, Alexandria has a total market capitalization of $25.7 billion and an asset base in North America that includes 39.7 million RSF of operating properties and 4.4 million RSF of Class A/A+ properties undergoing construction and one 100% pre-leased committed near-term project expected to commence construction in the next year. Alexandria has a long-standing and proven track record of developing Class A/A+ properties clustered in highly dynamic and collaborative Megacampus environments that enhance our tenants' ability to successfully recruit and retain world-class talent and inspire productivity, efficiency, creativity, and success. Alexandria also provides strategic capital to transformative life science companies through our venture capital platform. We believe our unique business model and diligent underwriting ensure a high-quality and diverse tenant base that results in higher occupancy levels, longer lease terms, higher rental income, higher returns, and greater long-term asset value.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ARE\"}}`" }, { "id": 40345, "title": "Will F's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-14?", "short_title": "F's close price rises?", "url_title": "F's close price rises?", "slug": "fs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:57.771116Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T13:21:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T14:52:00.225389Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:57.998589Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T14:51:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T14:51:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T16:03:02Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T13:21:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39892, "title": "Will F's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-14?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:57.771645Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T13:21:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T14:51:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T14:51:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T16:03:02Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T14:51:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T14:51:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ford Motor Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is F. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:26) is 11.41. You can find more information about Ford Motor Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F\n\nFord Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles worldwide. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers, as well as develops software. It also sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. In addition, it engages in the vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. Further, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. Additionally, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. The company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"F\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of F. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-14, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40345, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760451620.270485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760451620.270485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.49094060283687946 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 18.0, 3.0, 3.0, 8.0, 6.0, 5.0, 2.0, 8.0, 3.0, 2.0, 18.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ford Motor Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is F. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:26) is 11.41. You can find more information about Ford Motor Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F\n\nFord Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles worldwide. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers, as well as develops software. It also sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. In addition, it engages in the vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. Further, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. Additionally, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. The company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"F\"}}`" }, { "id": 40343, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-10-22 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:56.923670Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T11:58:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T13:29:00.209573Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:57.156064Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T13:28:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T13:28:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T09:52:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T11:58:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39890, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-10-22 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:56.924119Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T11:58:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T13:28:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T13:28:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T09:52:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T13:28:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T13:28:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307). If the community prediction on 2025-10-22 09:52:29 is higher than 25.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40343, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760447917.519835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760447917.519835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3419574638844302 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 13.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`" }, { "id": 40341, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 90.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"India GDP > Japan GDP (2025)?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"India GDP > Japan GDP (2025)?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-india-gdp-japan-gdp-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:56.055043Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T09:09:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T10:40:00.258399Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:56.294622Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T10:39:32Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T10:39:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T03:10:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T09:09:32Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39888, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 90.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:56.055487Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T09:09:32Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T10:39:32Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T10:39:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T03:10:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T10:39:32Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T10:39:32Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577\n- Original question title: Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 90.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, India's nominal GDP for 2025 exceeds that of Japan by the end of that year. It will be resolved as **No** if Japan's GDP remains higher or if both are equivalent.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The resolution will use the most recent data available from the [ <u>IMF</u> ]World Economic Outlook database(https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) (\"GDP, current prices Billions of US dollars\"), as of 7 January 2026. The expected release date is October 2025.\n\nOriginal background: \n> India and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35577,\"question_id\":35027,\"last_cp\":0.9}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577). If the community prediction on 2025-10-24 03:10:03 is higher than 90.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40341, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760436570.014743, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760436570.014743, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.375, 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.6119832826747721 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577\n- Original question title: Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 90.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, India's nominal GDP for 2025 exceeds that of Japan by the end of that year. It will be resolved as **No** if Japan's GDP remains higher or if both are equivalent.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The resolution will use the most recent data available from the [ <u>IMF</u> ]World Economic Outlook database(https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) (\"GDP, current prices Billions of US dollars\"), as of 7 January 2026. The expected release date is October 2025.\n\nOriginal background: \n> India and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35577,\"question_id\":35027,\"last_cp\":0.9}}`" }, { "id": 40338, "title": "Will AMGN's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-14?", "short_title": "AMGN's close price rises?", "url_title": "AMGN's close price rises?", "slug": "amgns-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:54.746928Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T07:00:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T08:31:00.301894Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:54.992763Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T08:30:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T08:30:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T08:49:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T07:00:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39885, "title": "Will AMGN's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-14?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:54.747336Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T07:00:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T08:30:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T08:30:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T08:49:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T08:30:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T08:30:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Amgen Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is AMGN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:38) is 290.13. You can find more information about Amgen Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMGN\n\nAmgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. The company's principal products include Enbrel for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; XGEVA for skeletal-related events prevention; Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization; Nplate for the treatment of patients with immune thrombocytopenia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; EVENITY for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal for men and women; Vectibix to treat patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer; BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia; TEPEZZA to treat thyroid eye disease; and KRYSTEXXA for the treatment of chronic refractory gout. It also markets other products, including Neulasta, MVASI, AMJEVITA/AMGEVITA, TEZSPIRE, Parsabiv, Aimovig, LUMAKRAS/LUMYKRAS, EPOGEN, KANJINTI, TAVNEOS, RAVICTI, UPLIZNA and PROCYSBI. The company serves healthcare providers, including physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies. It distributes its products through pharmaceutical wholesale distributors, as well as direct-to-consumer channels. The company has collaboration agreements with AstraZeneca plc for the development and commercialization of TEZSPIRE; Novartis Pharma AG to develop and commercialize Aimovig; UCB for the development and commercialization of EVENITY; Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. for rocatinlimab development and commercialization; and BeiGene, Ltd. for oncology products expansion and development. Amgen Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"AMGN\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of AMGN. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-14, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40338, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760428670.571015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760428670.571015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5394462365591396 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 12.0, 7.0, 9.0, 26.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Amgen Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is AMGN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:38) is 290.13. You can find more information about Amgen Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMGN\n\nAmgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. The company's principal products include Enbrel for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; XGEVA for skeletal-related events prevention; Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization; Nplate for the treatment of patients with immune thrombocytopenia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; EVENITY for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal for men and women; Vectibix to treat patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer; BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia; TEPEZZA to treat thyroid eye disease; and KRYSTEXXA for the treatment of chronic refractory gout. It also markets other products, including Neulasta, MVASI, AMJEVITA/AMGEVITA, TEZSPIRE, Parsabiv, Aimovig, LUMAKRAS/LUMYKRAS, EPOGEN, KANJINTI, TAVNEOS, RAVICTI, UPLIZNA and PROCYSBI. The company serves healthcare providers, including physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies. It distributes its products through pharmaceutical wholesale distributors, as well as direct-to-consumer channels. The company has collaboration agreements with AstraZeneca plc for the development and commercialization of TEZSPIRE; Novartis Pharma AG to develop and commercialize Aimovig; UCB for the development and commercialization of EVENITY; Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. for rocatinlimab development and commercialization; and BeiGene, Ltd. for oncology products expansion and development. Amgen Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"AMGN\"}}`" }, { "id": 40336, "title": "Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?", "short_title": "Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?", "url_title": "Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?", "slug": "will-rodrigo-paz-win-the-2025-bolivia-presidential-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:53.907330Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T05:28:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T06:59:00.250463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:54.127461Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T06:58:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T06:58:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T05:28:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39883, "title": "Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:53.907756Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T05:28:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T06:58:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T06:58:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T06:58:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T06:58:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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It's ticker is VLO. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:28) is 158.02. You can find more information about Valero Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VLO\n\nValero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brand names. The company owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces renewable diesel and naphtha under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name. In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distiller grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"VLO\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of VLO. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-14, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is VLO. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:28) is 158.02. You can find more information about Valero Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VLO\n\nValero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brand names. The company owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces renewable diesel and naphtha under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name. In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distiller grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"VLO\"}}`" } ] }
