Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
{ "count": 5852, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 39676, "title": "Is Alexander Zverev the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles champion?", "short_title": "Is Alexander Zverev the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles champion?", "url_title": "Is Alexander Zverev the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles champion?", "slug": "is-alexander-zverev-the-2025-us-open-mens-singles-champion", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:48.001485Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T04:46:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:00.653241Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:48.349842Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T06:16:27Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T06:16:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T04:46:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39053, "title": "Is Alexander Zverev the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles champion?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:48.001873Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T04:46:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T06:16:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T06:16:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T06:16:27Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T06:16:27Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"bb6e0523-0806-4151-b527-fcedec172a47\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Determination hinges on whether Alexander Zverev secures the title in the Men’s Singles competition at the 2025 US Open. A positive outcome is recorded only if he is officially recognized as the winner of this specific event. Should he be eliminated, withdraw, or otherwise become ineligible to claim the championship under the tournament’s official regulations at any stage, the answer will be negative. The primary reference for verifying the result will be the official US Open website (https://www.usopen.org) with supplementary confirmation from reputable news outlets if necessary. All criteria are assessed as of the conclusion of the tournament, with the final decision based on the status at or before 2025-09-07T00:00:00+00:00.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39676, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756878875.791766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756878875.791766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04774074074074063 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.0, 53.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"bb6e0523-0806-4151-b527-fcedec172a47\"}}`" }, { "id": 39675, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will France call another election by 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will France call another election by 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-france-call-another-election-by-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:47.028613Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T10:49:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T20:08:20.350526Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:47.503803Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T12:19:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T12:19:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T20:49:42Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:49:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39052, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:47.029015Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:49:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T12:19:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T12:19:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T20:49:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T12:19:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T12:19:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26114\n- Original question title: Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 50.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> Will resolve YES if French President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap election (early legislative election or dissolution of the National Assembly) before January 1, 2026. Will resolve NO if this does not happen before then.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Macron ceases to be president of France before January 1, 2026 and has not called a snap election prior to that, this question will resolve No.\n> \n> The actual election date resulting from the call can be after 2025, as long as the snap election call is made before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Following the 2024 EU Parliament elections, France saw the rise of the right wing National Rally. This made French president Emmanuel Macron call early legislative elections and dissolution of the National Assembly, in response. \n> \n> Following the 2024 french legislative elections, the National Assembly has been mostly split three-ways, between the big tent, left wing grouping [New Popular Front with 180 seats; the centrist Ensemble with 159 seats; and the aforementioned National rally with 142 seats. None of the above gaining a majority in the 577 seat parliament](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html). Some feel that this polarized parliament could lead to government deadlock, with any formed government potentially having a hard time surviving a motion of no confidence against it. This may potentially lead to Macron calling another snap election before the next scheduled legislative election, to ease the potential deadlock, which the french constitution only allow after a year since the previous legislative election.\n> \n> See also from Le Monde: [Snap elections in France: How it works, precedents, and consequences](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/10/snap-elections-in-france-how-it-works-precedents-and-consequences_6674391_8.html)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26114,\"question_id\":26114,\"last_cp\":0.5}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26114. If the community prediction on 2025-09-11 20:49:42 is higher than 50.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39675, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756901759.431629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756901759.431629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5179876543209875 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 16.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26114\n- Original question title: Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 50.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> Will resolve YES if French President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap election (early legislative election or dissolution of the National Assembly) before January 1, 2026. Will resolve NO if this does not happen before then.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Macron ceases to be president of France before January 1, 2026 and has not called a snap election prior to that, this question will resolve No.\n> \n> The actual election date resulting from the call can be after 2025, as long as the snap election call is made before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Following the 2024 EU Parliament elections, France saw the rise of the right wing National Rally. This made French president Emmanuel Macron call early legislative elections and dissolution of the National Assembly, in response. \n> \n> Following the 2024 french legislative elections, the National Assembly has been mostly split three-ways, between the big tent, left wing grouping [New Popular Front with 180 seats; the centrist Ensemble with 159 seats; and the aforementioned National rally with 142 seats. None of the above gaining a majority in the 577 seat parliament](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html). Some feel that this polarized parliament could lead to government deadlock, with any formed government potentially having a hard time surviving a motion of no confidence against it. This may potentially lead to Macron calling another snap election before the next scheduled legislative election, to ease the potential deadlock, which the french constitution only allow after a year since the previous legislative election.\n> \n> See also from Le Monde: [Snap elections in France: How it works, precedents, and consequences](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/10/snap-elections-in-france-how-it-works-precedents-and-consequences_6674391_8.html)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26114,\"question_id\":26114,\"last_cp\":0.5}}`" }, { "id": 39674, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 21.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"J.D. Vance POTUS before January 20, 2029?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"J.D. Vance POTUS before January 20, 2029?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-jd-vance-potus-before-january-20-2029", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:46.283122Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T10:14:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T20:08:19.406734Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:46.614760Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:44:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:44:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T07:38:53Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:14:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39051, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 21.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:46.283535Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:14:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T11:44:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T11:44:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T07:38:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:44:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:44:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26336\n- Original question title: Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 21.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern Time on January 20, 2029, J.D. Vance legally holds the office of President of the United States for any amount of time, for any reason (e.g. election to the presidency, or lawful succession to the presidency). The question will resolve as **no** if that does not occur.\n> \n> Serving as [Acting President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acting_President_of_the_United_States?useskin=vector) **does not** count for a yes resolution to this question.\n> \n> If the Republican Party nominee does not win the 2024 US presidential election, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [James David Vance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance?useskin=vector), commonly known as J.D. Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American politician of the Republican Party serving as the junior United States senator from Ohio since 2023, and was adopted as the [Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/trump-vp-pick-jd-vance/index.html) on July 15, 2024 after being selected as former President Donald J. Trump's running mate in his bid for a non-consecutive second term in the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which Trump may face a rematch against the Democratic Party ticket of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.\n> \n> If elected vice president and sworn into office, Vance would be the youngest person (at 40 years old) to hold that office since Richard Nixon in 1953 (also 40).\n> \n> Prior to entering politics, Vance had been a United States Marine, a corporate lawyer, a venture capitalist closely associated with the billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel?useskin=vector), and a best-selling author.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26336,\"question_id\":26336,\"last_cp\":0.21}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26336. If the community prediction on 2025-09-11 07:38:53 is higher than 21.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39674, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756897957.38901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756897957.38901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3943189300411523 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26336\n- Original question title: Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 21.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern Time on January 20, 2029, J.D. Vance legally holds the office of President of the United States for any amount of time, for any reason (e.g. election to the presidency, or lawful succession to the presidency). The question will resolve as **no** if that does not occur.\n> \n> Serving as [Acting President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acting_President_of_the_United_States?useskin=vector) **does not** count for a yes resolution to this question.\n> \n> If the Republican Party nominee does not win the 2024 US presidential election, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [James David Vance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance?useskin=vector), commonly known as J.D. Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American politician of the Republican Party serving as the junior United States senator from Ohio since 2023, and was adopted as the [Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/trump-vp-pick-jd-vance/index.html) on July 15, 2024 after being selected as former President Donald J. Trump's running mate in his bid for a non-consecutive second term in the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which Trump may face a rematch against the Democratic Party ticket of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.\n> \n> If elected vice president and sworn into office, Vance would be the youngest person (at 40 years old) to hold that office since Richard Nixon in 1953 (also 40).\n> \n> Prior to entering politics, Vance had been a United States Marine, a corporate lawyer, a venture capitalist closely associated with the billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel?useskin=vector), and a best-selling author.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26336,\"question_id\":26336,\"last_cp\":0.21}}`" }, { "id": 39673, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 75.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-boeings-stock-price-exceed-210-on-december-31-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:45.130517Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T02:21:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T17:30:27.422288Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:45.893400Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T03:51:02Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T03:51:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T17:55:04Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T02:21:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39050, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 75.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:45.130912Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T02:21:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T03:51:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T03:51:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T17:55:04Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T03:51:02Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T03:51:02Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36022\n- Original question title: Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 75.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if Boeing's (ticker: BA) stock price closes above \\$210.00 on December 31, 2025, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/history/) or alternative credible sources.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Boeing undergoes any stock splits, reverse splits, or such actions affecting its stock price before December 31, 2025, the stock price at resolution will be adjusted to its corresponding pre-split value.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Boeing's stock has seen a weak downward trend over 2024 and 2025, closing at \\$161.81 on March 14, 2025, 11% down from the same date one year before. The company has faced various challenges in recent years, including production delays, regulatory scrutiny, and supply chain disruptions. Despite these issues, analysts have slightly positive projections regarding Boeing's stock performance. On average, [they give](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-BA/forecast/) a one-year price target of \\$197.35, with Citi's analyst Jason Gursky [giving a target of \\$210](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/boeing-ba-receives-a-buy-from-citi-1034340849) and Jefferies' analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu [one of \\$220](https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/49254669/jefferies-maintains-boeing-baus-with-buy-rating-raises-target-price?level=1\\&data_ticket=1742051585490629). In 2025, Boeing [is expected](https://www.cirium.com/thoughtcloud/will-engine-deliveries-continue-to-pace-single-aisle-aircraft-shipments-in-2025/) to deliver 550 passenger aircraft, which could generate around \\$84 billion.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36022,\"question_id\":35453,\"last_cp\":0.75}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36022. If the community prediction on 2025-09-10 17:55:04 is higher than 75.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39673, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756869988.746232, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756869988.746232, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.45076543209876563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36022\n- Original question title: Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 75.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if Boeing's (ticker: BA) stock price closes above \\$210.00 on December 31, 2025, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/history/) or alternative credible sources.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Boeing undergoes any stock splits, reverse splits, or such actions affecting its stock price before December 31, 2025, the stock price at resolution will be adjusted to its corresponding pre-split value.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Boeing's stock has seen a weak downward trend over 2024 and 2025, closing at \\$161.81 on March 14, 2025, 11% down from the same date one year before. The company has faced various challenges in recent years, including production delays, regulatory scrutiny, and supply chain disruptions. Despite these issues, analysts have slightly positive projections regarding Boeing's stock performance. On average, [they give](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-BA/forecast/) a one-year price target of \\$197.35, with Citi's analyst Jason Gursky [giving a target of \\$210](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/boeing-ba-receives-a-buy-from-citi-1034340849) and Jefferies' analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu [one of \\$220](https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/49254669/jefferies-maintains-boeing-baus-with-buy-rating-raises-target-price?level=1\\&data_ticket=1742051585490629). In 2025, Boeing [is expected](https://www.cirium.com/thoughtcloud/will-engine-deliveries-continue-to-pace-single-aisle-aircraft-shipments-in-2025/) to deliver 550 passenger aircraft, which could generate around \\$84 billion.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36022,\"question_id\":35453,\"last_cp\":0.75}}`" }, { "id": 39670, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 52.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Before 2029, will a new AI safety org form with 3+ G7 members?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Before 2029, will a new AI safety org form with 3+ G7 members?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-before-2029-will-a-new-ai-safety-org-form-with-3-g7-members", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:42.289922Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T16:15:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T20:08:18.324181Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:42.624580Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T17:45:11Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T17:45:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T01:20:56Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T16:15:11Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39047, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 52.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:42.290345Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T16:15:11Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T17:45:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T17:45:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T01:20:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T17:45:11Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T17:45:11Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39163\n- Original question title: Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 52.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, a new international organization, with participation from at least 3 G7 countries, is formally launched that has a primary focus on safety or alignment of advanced AI systems according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \"Participation\" can mean listed as a formal participant by the organization, being a signatory, or being a contributor.\n> \n> The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.\n> \n> In order to count, the organization must be a new entity, not a sub-unit of an existing body such as the UN, OECD, or GPAI. \n> \n> The organization must have a dedicated secretariat staff or administrative team and an initial funding commitment of at least \\$100 million USD (over any time period), publicly pledged by governments and/or officially participating entities.\n> \n> AI safety must me an explicit and central goal of the organization. \n> \n> The organization must have be an indefinite going concern, not a one-off task force or single event.\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n> \n> > *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n> \n> ***\n> \n> While several international summits and declarations on AI governance have taken place in recent years, many experts have called for a standing international institution focused on AI safety, sometimes referred to as a “CERN for AI.” \n> \n> This question tests whether new global institutions focused on AI safety will emerge with meaningful support. In the Tool AI scenario, formal governance bodies become essential to coordinating AI development, especially across high-stakes domains. A new international organization with substantial backing from multiple G7 countries would mark a concrete step toward the scenario’s institutional vision.\n> \n> For more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39163,\"question_id\":38505,\"last_cp\":0.52}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39163. If the community prediction on 2025-09-11 01:20:56 is higher than 52.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39670, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756919496.890084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4295 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.485 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756919496.890084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4295 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.485 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5705, 0.4295 ], "means": [ 0.42148511904761915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 11.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39163\n- Original question title: Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 52.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, a new international organization, with participation from at least 3 G7 countries, is formally launched that has a primary focus on safety or alignment of advanced AI systems according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \"Participation\" can mean listed as a formal participant by the organization, being a signatory, or being a contributor.\n> \n> The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.\n> \n> In order to count, the organization must be a new entity, not a sub-unit of an existing body such as the UN, OECD, or GPAI. \n> \n> The organization must have a dedicated secretariat staff or administrative team and an initial funding commitment of at least \\$100 million USD (over any time period), publicly pledged by governments and/or officially participating entities.\n> \n> AI safety must me an explicit and central goal of the organization. \n> \n> The organization must have be an indefinite going concern, not a one-off task force or single event.\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n> \n> > *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n> \n> ***\n> \n> While several international summits and declarations on AI governance have taken place in recent years, many experts have called for a standing international institution focused on AI safety, sometimes referred to as a “CERN for AI.” \n> \n> This question tests whether new global institutions focused on AI safety will emerge with meaningful support. In the Tool AI scenario, formal governance bodies become essential to coordinating AI development, especially across high-stakes domains. A new international organization with substantial backing from multiple G7 countries would mark a concrete step toward the scenario’s institutional vision.\n> \n> For more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39163,\"question_id\":38505,\"last_cp\":0.52}}`" }, { "id": 39667, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-09-09 for the Metaculus question \"Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"By 2030, will banks offer $10B+ regulated DeFi yields with protections?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"By 2030, will banks offer $10B+ regulated DeFi yields with protections?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-by-2030-will-banks-offer-10b-regulated-defi-yields-with-protections", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:39.826508Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T03:53:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:01.952132Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:40.260022Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T05:23:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T05:23:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T21:40:10Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T03:53:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39044, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-09-09 for the Metaculus question \"Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:39.826911Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T03:53:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T05:23:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T05:23:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T21:40:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T05:23:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T05:23:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39171\n- Original question title: Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, 3 or more of the top 50 regulated traditional banks offer a regulated decentralized finance (DeFi) yield product while maintaining at least two of these three consumer protections:\n> \n> 1. Deposit Insurance: Principal protected by government-backed insurance (FDIC, FSCS, equivalent deposit guarantee schemes)\n> 2. Fraud/Error Recourse: Clear, legally binding process for disputing transactions and recovering funds from fraud or technical errors, comparable to traditional banking protections\n> 3. Liquidity Guarantees: Bank guarantees customer ability to withdraw funds within standard timeframes (e.g., settlement within 2 business days under normal conditions)\n> \n> Top 50 banks are those that rank in the top 50 globally by total assets according to [LexisNexis](https://risk.lexisnexis.com/insights-resources/article/bank-rankings-top-banks-in-the-world)[ ](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/5/50-largest-us-banks-by-total-assets-q1-2025-89121851)or, if that is unavailable, another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n> \n> DeFi yield products for purposes of this question means they must allocate customer assets via smart contracts to protocols on public, permissionless blockchains (e.g., Ethereum/L2s, Solana) in order to offer on-chain returns such as lending interest, staking rewards, liquidity-provision fees, or protocol incentive distributions. Products that simply custody crypto assets without yield generation do not qualify. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Yield must actually derive from DeFi protocols, not a bank's own lending activities.\n> \n> Products must meet all of the following:\n> \n> 1. Explicit DeFi Integration: Marketed as deriving returns from DeFi protocols (lending platforms like Aave/Compound, staking services like Lido, yield farming, liquidity provision)\n> 2. Retail Accessibility: Available to individual consumers, not just institutional clients\n> 3. Direct Bank Offering: Product issued directly by the bank, not merely facilitating access to third-party DeFi services\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n> \n> > *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n> \n> ***\n> \n> The d/acc scenario envisions \"TradFi-DeFi\" integration (traditional finance and [decentralized finance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decentralized_finance)) as a key mechanism enabling broader participation in decentralized finance while preserving consumer protections. This represents a critical test of whether decentralized financial systems can achieve mainstream adoption through gradual integration rather than wholesale replacement of traditional institutions. Currently, DeFi offers significantly higher yields (4-15%+ APY) compared to traditional savings accounts (\\~2-5%), but lacks consumer protections that make traditional banking trustworthy for mainstream users. Achieving \\$10B in regulated, protected DeFi products would signal that the technical, regulatory, and risk management challenges have been solved at scale, validating the d/acc premise that decentralized and centralized systems can be productively hybridized rather than remaining in competition. This milestone would demonstrate institutional confidence in DeFi's maturity and regulatory frameworks' ability to adapt to decentralized financial innovation.\n> \n> For more, visit: [<u>AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39171,\"question_id\":38513,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39171. If the community prediction on 2025-09-09 21:40:10 is higher than 25.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39667, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756876068.739691, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756876068.739691, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3640894308943089 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39171\n- Original question title: Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, 3 or more of the top 50 regulated traditional banks offer a regulated decentralized finance (DeFi) yield product while maintaining at least two of these three consumer protections:\n> \n> 1. Deposit Insurance: Principal protected by government-backed insurance (FDIC, FSCS, equivalent deposit guarantee schemes)\n> 2. Fraud/Error Recourse: Clear, legally binding process for disputing transactions and recovering funds from fraud or technical errors, comparable to traditional banking protections\n> 3. Liquidity Guarantees: Bank guarantees customer ability to withdraw funds within standard timeframes (e.g., settlement within 2 business days under normal conditions)\n> \n> Top 50 banks are those that rank in the top 50 globally by total assets according to [LexisNexis](https://risk.lexisnexis.com/insights-resources/article/bank-rankings-top-banks-in-the-world)[ ](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/5/50-largest-us-banks-by-total-assets-q1-2025-89121851)or, if that is unavailable, another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n> \n> DeFi yield products for purposes of this question means they must allocate customer assets via smart contracts to protocols on public, permissionless blockchains (e.g., Ethereum/L2s, Solana) in order to offer on-chain returns such as lending interest, staking rewards, liquidity-provision fees, or protocol incentive distributions. Products that simply custody crypto assets without yield generation do not qualify. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Yield must actually derive from DeFi protocols, not a bank's own lending activities.\n> \n> Products must meet all of the following:\n> \n> 1. Explicit DeFi Integration: Marketed as deriving returns from DeFi protocols (lending platforms like Aave/Compound, staking services like Lido, yield farming, liquidity provision)\n> 2. Retail Accessibility: Available to individual consumers, not just institutional clients\n> 3. Direct Bank Offering: Product issued directly by the bank, not merely facilitating access to third-party DeFi services\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n> \n> > *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n> \n> ***\n> \n> The d/acc scenario envisions \"TradFi-DeFi\" integration (traditional finance and [decentralized finance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decentralized_finance)) as a key mechanism enabling broader participation in decentralized finance while preserving consumer protections. This represents a critical test of whether decentralized financial systems can achieve mainstream adoption through gradual integration rather than wholesale replacement of traditional institutions. Currently, DeFi offers significantly higher yields (4-15%+ APY) compared to traditional savings accounts (\\~2-5%), but lacks consumer protections that make traditional banking trustworthy for mainstream users. Achieving \\$10B in regulated, protected DeFi products would signal that the technical, regulatory, and risk management challenges have been solved at scale, validating the d/acc premise that decentralized and centralized systems can be productively hybridized rather than remaining in competition. This milestone would demonstrate institutional confidence in DeFi's maturity and regulatory frameworks' ability to adapt to decentralized financial innovation.\n> \n> For more, visit: [<u>AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39171,\"question_id\":38513,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`" }, { "id": 39666, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-nato-troops-in-ukraine-by-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:39.048620Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T09:30:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-01T11:32:37.421316Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:39.381475Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T00:16:03Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T09:30:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39043, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:39.049017Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T09:30:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T00:16:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21761\n- Original question title: Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 17.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, credible media sources report that combat troops from NATO countries are physically and openly present in Ukraine (under its internationally recognized borders at the time such reports are made) in significant numbers.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * \"Openly\" means with the open admission of either NATO as an organization, or the government(s) of the NATO member state(s) to which the unit belongs. Informal, clandestine, or unauthorized presence or participation, such as military advisors, non-uniformed special forces, intelligence operatives, mercenaries, or private volunteers, will not resolve this question.\n> * \"Physically\" requires the deployment of the unit, together with its combat equipment, as a coherent fighting force. Individual members (or small groups) of NATO units present to conduct training, intelligence, or similar tasks, rather than being deployed as a combat unit, will not resolve this question.\n> * The unit must be unambiguously inside Ukraine; units merely \"patrolling the border\" from the outside, or similar, do not qualify.\n> * The unit must be reported to be physically present in Ukraine for at least 7 consecutive days. Short-term raids or incursions not designed to be a prolonged physical presence will not resolve this question.\n> * \"Significant numbers\" means the presence of at least 3,000 troops in total from all involved NATO countries, at least three full units the size of a battalion or regiment, or at least one full unit the size of a brigade or larger.\n> * \"Combat troops\" means that the troops present are primarily equipped to take or hold physical ground, regardless of their military branch or specialty (e.g. infantry or armor would both quality.) For the purposes of this question, it excludes units primarily described as special forces, intelligence operatives, military advisors, air, anti-air, or naval units, or non-combat units.\n> * A unit must only come from one or more NATO countries to resolve this question, even if operating unilaterally under national flag(s). NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be invoked.\n> * The purpose, operations, or rules of engagement of such unit(s) bears no relevance to the resolution of this question. They are not required to engage Russia, only to be physically present in any part of Ukraine.\n> * The (formal or informal) acknowledgement or consent to such a presence of either Russia or Ukraine bears no resolution on this question. The only acknowledgement required is by the NATO member state(s) deploying such troops.\n> * If credible sources report Ukraine to no longer exist as an internationally recognized sovereign state prior to the resolution of this question, it will be resolved as \"no.\"\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the Ukraine War, NATO has repeatedly claimed that it will not engage Russian troops directly in Ukraine for fear of a major escalation between nuclear powers. However, recent battlefield setbacks for Ukraine have increased the possibility of such presence. France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) [mentioned](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/) that intervention cannot be ruled out (although having later backtracked.) The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine.\n> \n> NATO (or any NATO member state) could choose to deploy troops in only those areas of Ukraine not contested by Russia, and such troops might be present in a deterrent or substitution role to allow releasing more Ukrainian troops to the front lines, while still intending to avoid a direct clash with Russia. As well, NATO may choose to be present in Ukraine as further deterrent after any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, on territory still under Ukrainian control. Such presence might be with or without Russia's consent, and such consent might be formal or tacit.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":21761,\"question_id\":21761,\"last_cp\":0.17}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21761. If the community prediction on 2025-09-10 00:16:03 is higher than 17.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39666, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756722227.684371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.465 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756722227.684371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.465 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3538761261261262 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21761\n- Original question title: Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 17.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, credible media sources report that combat troops from NATO countries are physically and openly present in Ukraine (under its internationally recognized borders at the time such reports are made) in significant numbers.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * \"Openly\" means with the open admission of either NATO as an organization, or the government(s) of the NATO member state(s) to which the unit belongs. Informal, clandestine, or unauthorized presence or participation, such as military advisors, non-uniformed special forces, intelligence operatives, mercenaries, or private volunteers, will not resolve this question.\n> * \"Physically\" requires the deployment of the unit, together with its combat equipment, as a coherent fighting force. Individual members (or small groups) of NATO units present to conduct training, intelligence, or similar tasks, rather than being deployed as a combat unit, will not resolve this question.\n> * The unit must be unambiguously inside Ukraine; units merely \"patrolling the border\" from the outside, or similar, do not qualify.\n> * The unit must be reported to be physically present in Ukraine for at least 7 consecutive days. Short-term raids or incursions not designed to be a prolonged physical presence will not resolve this question.\n> * \"Significant numbers\" means the presence of at least 3,000 troops in total from all involved NATO countries, at least three full units the size of a battalion or regiment, or at least one full unit the size of a brigade or larger.\n> * \"Combat troops\" means that the troops present are primarily equipped to take or hold physical ground, regardless of their military branch or specialty (e.g. infantry or armor would both quality.) For the purposes of this question, it excludes units primarily described as special forces, intelligence operatives, military advisors, air, anti-air, or naval units, or non-combat units.\n> * A unit must only come from one or more NATO countries to resolve this question, even if operating unilaterally under national flag(s). NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be invoked.\n> * The purpose, operations, or rules of engagement of such unit(s) bears no relevance to the resolution of this question. They are not required to engage Russia, only to be physically present in any part of Ukraine.\n> * The (formal or informal) acknowledgement or consent to such a presence of either Russia or Ukraine bears no resolution on this question. The only acknowledgement required is by the NATO member state(s) deploying such troops.\n> * If credible sources report Ukraine to no longer exist as an internationally recognized sovereign state prior to the resolution of this question, it will be resolved as \"no.\"\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the Ukraine War, NATO has repeatedly claimed that it will not engage Russian troops directly in Ukraine for fear of a major escalation between nuclear powers. However, recent battlefield setbacks for Ukraine have increased the possibility of such presence. France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) [mentioned](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/) that intervention cannot be ruled out (although having later backtracked.) The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine.\n> \n> NATO (or any NATO member state) could choose to deploy troops in only those areas of Ukraine not contested by Russia, and such troops might be present in a deterrent or substitution role to allow releasing more Ukrainian troops to the front lines, while still intending to avoid a direct clash with Russia. As well, NATO may choose to be present in Ukraine as further deterrent after any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, on territory still under Ukrainian control. Such presence might be with or without Russia's consent, and such consent might be formal or tacit.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":21761,\"question_id\":21761,\"last_cp\":0.17}}`" }, { "id": 39665, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 87.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New FOMC member is appointed before any term is up and before Jan 20, 2029?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New FOMC member is appointed before any term is up and before Jan 20, 2029?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-new-fomc-member-is-appointed-before-any-term-is-up-and-before-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:38.138878Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T13:26:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T14:57:00.085450Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:38.487988Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:56:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:56:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T16:15:11Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T13:26:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39042, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 87.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:38.139264Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T13:26:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T14:56:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T14:56:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T16:15:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:56:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:56:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36329\n- Original question title: Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 87.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 20, 2025 and before January 20, 2029:\n> \n> * A Federal Open Market Committee member resigns or is removed before their term expires and the US President designates a replacement, OR\n> * The US President appoints one or more additional members to the FOMC beyond those expected under normal succession (i.e., through replacement of members whose term has expired or who have resigned).\n> \n> If neither occurs before January 20, 2029, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question will not resolve **Yes** until the nominee is confirmed by the US Senate.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for setting US monetary policy, including decisions on interest rates and asset purchases. The committee consists of:\n> \n> * 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate.\n> * The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (a permanent member).\n> * 4 rotating regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on the committee.\n> \n> Members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors serve staggered 14-year terms, meaning they typically remain in office across multiple presidential administrations. However, presidents have occasionally replaced members early or added new members under exceptional circumstances.\n> \n> *This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36329,\"question_id\":35752,\"last_cp\":0.87}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36329. If the community prediction on 2025-09-10 16:15:11 is higher than 87.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39665, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756910080.286183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756910080.286183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.45767088607594936 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36329\n- Original question title: Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 87.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 20, 2025 and before January 20, 2029:\n> \n> * A Federal Open Market Committee member resigns or is removed before their term expires and the US President designates a replacement, OR\n> * The US President appoints one or more additional members to the FOMC beyond those expected under normal succession (i.e., through replacement of members whose term has expired or who have resigned).\n> \n> If neither occurs before January 20, 2029, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question will not resolve **Yes** until the nominee is confirmed by the US Senate.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for setting US monetary policy, including decisions on interest rates and asset purchases. The committee consists of:\n> \n> * 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate.\n> * The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (a permanent member).\n> * 4 rotating regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on the committee.\n> \n> Members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors serve staggered 14-year terms, meaning they typically remain in office across multiple presidential administrations. However, presidents have occasionally replaced members early or added new members under exceptional circumstances.\n> \n> *This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36329,\"question_id\":35752,\"last_cp\":0.87}}`" }, { "id": 39664, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 12.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question \"Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-russia-attack-a-european-nato-member-before-2035", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:37.277099Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T11:06:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-01T12:37:00.265308Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:37.621379Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:36:56Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:36:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T00:10:24Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:06:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39041, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 12.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question \"Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:37.277480Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:06:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T12:36:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T12:36:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T00:10:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:36:56Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:36:56Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38825\n- Original question title: Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 12.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, credible sources report an attack on a European NATO member state by Russia.\n> \n> For this question, an attack on a European NATO member state is defined as any of the following:\n> \n> * The presence of Russian troops within a European NATO state without permission of the country.\n> * A direct military engagement between Russian and European NATO troops resulting in fatalities of European NATO troops.\n> * A direct and intentional military attack within a European NATO state, acknowledged by Russia or widely reported by credible sources, to have been intentionally carried out by Russia.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purposes of this question, troops are defined as any uniformed military personnel.\n> \n> For the purposes of this question, any NATO member state may act either as part of NATO as a whole, or on its own. NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be applicable.\n> \n> Cyberwarfare or informal, clandestine, or unauthorized operations (e.g., those carried out by non-uniformed special forces, mercenaries, or private volunteers without the proper acknowledgement) will not be considered an attack by Russia and will not resolve this question.\n> \n> A country that joins NATO and either at the time of joining or following its admission to NATO satisfies these criteria will still resolve the question as **Yes**.\n> \n> As of July 9, 2025, all NATO members other than the United States and Canada qualify as European NATO states.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Source](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/local-war-in-six-months-and-russian-aggression-against-the-eu-in-five-danish-intelligence-forecast/):\n> \n> > If the war against Ukraine stops or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in about five years.\n> > \n> > The Danish Defence Intelligence Service stated this in its new threat assessment, DR [reports](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/fe-i-ny-trusselsvurdering-risiko-storskalakrig-i-europa-inden-fem-aar).\n> > \n> > It is noted that the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years.\n> > \n> > Among the reasons, the intelligence community cites the fact that Russia, in parallel with the war against Ukraine, launched “a major restoration and reform of its armed forces.”\n> > \n> > Over the past year, these efforts have allegedly turned from restoration into “an intensified military buildup to wage war against NATO.”\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38825,\"question_id\":38146,\"last_cp\":0.12}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38825. If the community prediction on 2025-09-12 00:10:24 is higher than 12.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39664, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756727169.682091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.365 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756727169.682091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.365 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.635, 0.365 ], "means": [ 0.37482432432432433 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38825\n- Original question title: Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 12.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, credible sources report an attack on a European NATO member state by Russia.\n> \n> For this question, an attack on a European NATO member state is defined as any of the following:\n> \n> * The presence of Russian troops within a European NATO state without permission of the country.\n> * A direct military engagement between Russian and European NATO troops resulting in fatalities of European NATO troops.\n> * A direct and intentional military attack within a European NATO state, acknowledged by Russia or widely reported by credible sources, to have been intentionally carried out by Russia.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purposes of this question, troops are defined as any uniformed military personnel.\n> \n> For the purposes of this question, any NATO member state may act either as part of NATO as a whole, or on its own. NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be applicable.\n> \n> Cyberwarfare or informal, clandestine, or unauthorized operations (e.g., those carried out by non-uniformed special forces, mercenaries, or private volunteers without the proper acknowledgement) will not be considered an attack by Russia and will not resolve this question.\n> \n> A country that joins NATO and either at the time of joining or following its admission to NATO satisfies these criteria will still resolve the question as **Yes**.\n> \n> As of July 9, 2025, all NATO members other than the United States and Canada qualify as European NATO states.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Source](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/local-war-in-six-months-and-russian-aggression-against-the-eu-in-five-danish-intelligence-forecast/):\n> \n> > If the war against Ukraine stops or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in about five years.\n> > \n> > The Danish Defence Intelligence Service stated this in its new threat assessment, DR [reports](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/fe-i-ny-trusselsvurdering-risiko-storskalakrig-i-europa-inden-fem-aar).\n> > \n> > It is noted that the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years.\n> > \n> > Among the reasons, the intelligence community cites the fact that Russia, in parallel with the war against Ukraine, launched “a major restoration and reform of its armed forces.”\n> > \n> > Over the past year, these efforts have allegedly turned from restoration into “an intensified military buildup to wage war against NATO.”\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38825,\"question_id\":38146,\"last_cp\":0.12}}`" }, { "id": 39663, "title": "Will MA's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "short_title": "MA's close price rises?", "url_title": "MA's close price rises?", "slug": "mas-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:36.333879Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T21:29:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:01.983572Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:36.914277Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:59:44Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:59:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T22:50:43Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T21:29:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39040, "title": "Will MA's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:36.334289Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T21:29:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T22:59:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T22:59:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T22:50:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:59:44Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:59:44Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mastercard Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is MA. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:22) is 595.29. You can find more information about Mastercard Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MA\n\nMastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from a physical card and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions. In addition, the company offers Mastercard Move, which partners with digital messaging and payment platforms to enable consumers to send money directly within applications to other consumers; and partners with central banks, fintechs and financial institutions to help governments and nonprofits, as well as enables various cross-border payment flows. Further, it provides security solutions; personalization, issuer and merchant loyalty, and marketing services; advanced analytics, business intelligence, economic and location-based insights, payments consulting, and operational insights services; processing and gateway solutions; and open banking services. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus names. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"MA\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of MA. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-01, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39663, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756765578.571134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756765578.571134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5500363247863249 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 9.0, 6.0, 5.0, 16.0, 5.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mastercard Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is MA. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:22) is 595.29. You can find more information about Mastercard Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MA\n\nMastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from a physical card and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions. In addition, the company offers Mastercard Move, which partners with digital messaging and payment platforms to enable consumers to send money directly within applications to other consumers; and partners with central banks, fintechs and financial institutions to help governments and nonprofits, as well as enables various cross-border payment flows. Further, it provides security solutions; personalization, issuer and merchant loyalty, and marketing services; advanced analytics, business intelligence, economic and location-based insights, payments consulting, and operational insights services; processing and gateway solutions; and open banking services. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus names. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"MA\"}}`" }, { "id": 39662, "title": "Will CBRE's market close price on 2025-09-09 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-02?", "short_title": "CBRE's close price rises?", "url_title": "CBRE's close price rises?", "slug": "cbres-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:35.376647Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T21:56:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:00.380674Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:35.947931Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T23:26:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T23:26:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T13:24:50Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T21:56:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39039, "title": "Will CBRE's market close price on 2025-09-09 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-02?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:35.377038Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T21:56:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T23:26:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T23:26:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T13:24:50Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T23:26:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T23:26:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CBRE Group, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CBRE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:21) is 162.12. You can find more information about CBRE Group, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CBRE\n\nCBRE Group, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate services and investment company in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The Advisory Services segment offers strategic advice and execution to owners, investors, and occupiers of real estate in connection with leasing of offices, and industrial and retail space; clients fully integrated property sales services under the CBRE Capital Markets brand; clients commercial mortgage and structured financing services; originates and sells commercial mortgage loans; property management services, such as marketing, building engineering, accounting, and financial services on a contractual basis for owners of and investors in office, industrial, and retail properties; and valuation services that include market value appraisals, litigation support, discounted cash flow analyses, and feasibility studies, as well as consulting services, such as property condition reports, hotel advisory, and environmental consulting. The Global Workplace Solutions segment provides facilities management, including day-to-day management of client-occupied space, headquarters, regional offices, administrative offices, data centers and other critical facilities, manufacturing and laboratory facilities, and distribution facilities and retail space; and project management services comprising building consulting, program, and project and cost management services under the Turner & Townsend brand name. The Real Estate Investments segment offers investment management services under the CBRE Investment Management brand to pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, foundations, endowments, and other institutional investors; and development services, such as real estate development and investment activities under the Trammell Crow Company and Telford Homes brands to users and investors in commercial real estate, and for their own account. CBRE Group, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CBRE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CBRE. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-02, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39662, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756852691.539718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756852691.539718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.539895061728395 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 7.0, 3.0, 6.0, 18.0, 6.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CBRE Group, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CBRE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:21) is 162.12. You can find more information about CBRE Group, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CBRE\n\nCBRE Group, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate services and investment company in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The Advisory Services segment offers strategic advice and execution to owners, investors, and occupiers of real estate in connection with leasing of offices, and industrial and retail space; clients fully integrated property sales services under the CBRE Capital Markets brand; clients commercial mortgage and structured financing services; originates and sells commercial mortgage loans; property management services, such as marketing, building engineering, accounting, and financial services on a contractual basis for owners of and investors in office, industrial, and retail properties; and valuation services that include market value appraisals, litigation support, discounted cash flow analyses, and feasibility studies, as well as consulting services, such as property condition reports, hotel advisory, and environmental consulting. The Global Workplace Solutions segment provides facilities management, including day-to-day management of client-occupied space, headquarters, regional offices, administrative offices, data centers and other critical facilities, manufacturing and laboratory facilities, and distribution facilities and retail space; and project management services comprising building consulting, program, and project and cost management services under the Turner & Townsend brand name. The Real Estate Investments segment offers investment management services under the CBRE Investment Management brand to pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, foundations, endowments, and other institutional investors; and development services, such as real estate development and investment activities under the Trammell Crow Company and Telford Homes brands to users and investors in commercial real estate, and for their own account. CBRE Group, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CBRE\"}}`" }, { "id": 39661, "title": "Will PODD's market close price on 2025-09-10 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-03?", "short_title": "PODD's close price rises?", "url_title": "PODD's close price rises?", "slug": "podds-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:34.524962Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T21:28:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:20.966015Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:34.997164Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T22:58:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T02:16:14Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T21:28:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39038, "title": "Will PODD's market close price on 2025-09-10 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-03?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:34.525357Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T21:28:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T22:58:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T22:58:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T02:16:14Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T22:58:30Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T22:58:30Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Insulet Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is PODD. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:20) is 339.88. You can find more information about Insulet Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PODD\n\nInsulet Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells insulin delivery systems for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States and internationally. The company offers Omnipod platform products comprising Omnipod 5 automated insulin delivery system, which includes a proprietary AID algorithm embedded in the pod that integrates with a third-party continuous glucose monitor to obtain glucose values through wireless Bluetooth communication; and Omnipod DASH insulin management system that features a Bluetooth enabled pod that is controlled by a smartphone-like personal diabetes manager with a color touch screen user interface. It also provides pods for Amgen for use in the Neulasta Onpro kit, which is a delivery system to help reduce the risk of infection after intense chemotherapy. The company sells its products to end-users through the pharmacy channel; and independent distributors. Insulet Corporation was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Acton, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"PODD\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of PODD. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-03, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39661, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Insulet Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is PODD. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:20) is 339.88. You can find more information about Insulet Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PODD\n\nInsulet Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells insulin delivery systems for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States and internationally. The company offers Omnipod platform products comprising Omnipod 5 automated insulin delivery system, which includes a proprietary AID algorithm embedded in the pod that integrates with a third-party continuous glucose monitor to obtain glucose values through wireless Bluetooth communication; and Omnipod DASH insulin management system that features a Bluetooth enabled pod that is controlled by a smartphone-like personal diabetes manager with a color touch screen user interface. It also provides pods for Amgen for use in the Neulasta Onpro kit, which is a delivery system to help reduce the risk of infection after intense chemotherapy. The company sells its products to end-users through the pharmacy channel; and independent distributors. Insulet Corporation was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Acton, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"PODD\"}}`" }, { "id": 39660, "title": "Will NTRS's market close price on 2025-09-12 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "short_title": "NTRS's close price rises?", "url_title": "NTRS's close price rises?", "slug": "ntrss-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:33.717087Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T14:40:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:01.902822Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:34.157308Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:10:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:10:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T02:57:35Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T14:40:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39037, "title": "Will NTRS's market close price on 2025-09-12 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:33.717481Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T14:40:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T16:10:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T16:10:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T02:57:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:10:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:10:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Northern Trust Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is NTRS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:18) is 131.28. You can find more information about Northern Trust Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NTRS\n\nNorthern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage services, transition management services, banking, and cash management services. This segment serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage services; and private and business banking services. This segment serves high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately-held businesses. The company provides asset management services, such as active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; muti-asset and alternative asset classes comprising private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. In addition, it offers overlay and other risk management services. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NTRS\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of NTRS. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-01, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39660, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756742987.509759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756742987.509759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.48298648648648645 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 21.0, 2.0, 3.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Northern Trust Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is NTRS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:18) is 131.28. You can find more information about Northern Trust Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NTRS\n\nNorthern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage services, transition management services, banking, and cash management services. This segment serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage services; and private and business banking services. This segment serves high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately-held businesses. The company provides asset management services, such as active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; muti-asset and alternative asset classes comprising private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. In addition, it offers overlay and other risk management services. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NTRS\"}}`" }, { "id": 39658, "title": "Will J's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-02?", "short_title": "J's close price rises?", "url_title": "J's close price rises?", "slug": "js-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:31.759822Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T11:18:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:00.603438Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:32.248741Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T12:48:59Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T12:48:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T05:32:50Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T11:18:59Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39035, "title": "Will J's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-02?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:31.760233Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T11:18:59Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T12:48:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T12:48:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T05:32:50Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T12:48:59Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T12:48:59Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Jacobs Solutions Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is J. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:14) is 146.23. You can find more information about Jacobs Solutions Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/J\n\nJacobs Solutions Inc. engages in the infrastructure and advanced facilities, and consulting businesses in the United States, Europe, Canada, India, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers consulting, planning, architecture, design, engineering, and infrastructure delivery services including project, program, and construction management and long-term operation of facilities. It also provides consulting services for consumer and manufacturing, defense and security, energy and utilities, financial services, government, health and life sciences, and transport sectors. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"J\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of J. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-02, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39658, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756816664.823244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756816664.823244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5320485232067509 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 5.0, 3.0, 11.0, 4.0, 6.0, 15.0, 4.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Jacobs Solutions Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is J. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:14) is 146.23. You can find more information about Jacobs Solutions Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/J\n\nJacobs Solutions Inc. engages in the infrastructure and advanced facilities, and consulting businesses in the United States, Europe, Canada, India, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers consulting, planning, architecture, design, engineering, and infrastructure delivery services including project, program, and construction management and long-term operation of facilities. It also provides consulting services for consumer and manufacturing, defense and security, energy and utilities, financial services, government, health and life sciences, and transport sectors. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"J\"}}`" }, { "id": 39657, "title": "Will CMS's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "short_title": "CMS's close price rises?", "url_title": "CMS's close price rises?", "slug": "cmss-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:30.888140Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T11:49:41Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:00.581503Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:31.253401Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T09:47:29Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:49:41Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39034, "title": "Will CMS's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:30.888528Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:49:41Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T09:47:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CMS Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CMS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:12) is 71.57. You can find more information about CMS Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMS\n\nCMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan. The company operates through three segments: Electric Utility; Gas Utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy. The Electric Utility segment is involved in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity. This segment generates electricity through coal, wind, gas, renewable energy, oil, and nuclear sources. Its distribution system comprises 270 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 4 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 4,646 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 18 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 81,924 miles of electric distribution overhead lines; 9,775 miles of underground distribution lines; and 1,098 substations. The Gas Utility segment engages in the purchase, transmission, storage, distribution, and sale of natural gas, which includes 2,342 miles of transmission lines; 15 gas storage fields; 28,368 miles of distribution mains; and 8 compressor stations. The NorthStar Clean Energy segment is involved in the independent power production and marketing, including the development and operation of renewable generation. The company serves 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers, including residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Jackson, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CMS\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CMS. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-01, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39657, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756732695.989849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756732695.989849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5253063063063064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 11.0, 5.0, 2.0, 17.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CMS Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CMS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:12) is 71.57. You can find more information about CMS Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMS\n\nCMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan. The company operates through three segments: Electric Utility; Gas Utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy. The Electric Utility segment is involved in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity. This segment generates electricity through coal, wind, gas, renewable energy, oil, and nuclear sources. Its distribution system comprises 270 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 4 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 4,646 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 18 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 81,924 miles of electric distribution overhead lines; 9,775 miles of underground distribution lines; and 1,098 substations. The Gas Utility segment engages in the purchase, transmission, storage, distribution, and sale of natural gas, which includes 2,342 miles of transmission lines; 15 gas storage fields; 28,368 miles of distribution mains; and 8 compressor stations. The NorthStar Clean Energy segment is involved in the independent power production and marketing, including the development and operation of renewable generation. The company serves 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers, including residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Jackson, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CMS\"}}`" }, { "id": 39656, "title": "Will GPC's market close price on 2025-09-09 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-03?", "short_title": "GPC's close price rises?", "url_title": "GPC's close price rises?", "slug": "gpcs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:29.856588Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T22:59:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:00.628333Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:30.354229Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T09:54:27Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T22:59:36Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39033, "title": "Will GPC's market close price on 2025-09-09 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-03?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:29.857073Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T22:59:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T09:54:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Genuine Parts Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is GPC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:07) is 139.33. You can find more information about Genuine Parts Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPC\n\nGenuine Parts Company distributes automotive and industrial replacement parts. It operates in two segments, Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group. The company distributes automotive parts, accessories and solutions and replacement parts for hybrid and electric vehicles, trucks, SUVs, buses, motorcycles, farm equipment, and heavy duty equipment; and equipment parts and technologies. It also offers automotive parts, including brakes, batteries, filters, engine components, tools, accessories, and fluids; custom services, such as paint mixing, hydraulic hose assembly, battery testing, and key cutting; and accessories, tools, and equipment for servicing heavy duty and diesel vehicles, as well as operates service and mechanical repair centers for heavy vehicles. In addition, the company operates independent repair shops and auto care centers under the NAPA brand; and NAPA online, an online platform to browse, purchase, and have automotive products, as well as provides DIY workshops and training sessions to customers. Further, it provides abrasives, adhesives, sealants and tape, bearings, chemicals, cutting tools, electrical, facility maintenance, hose and fittings, hydraulics, janitorial, mechanical power transmission, pneumatics, process pumps and equipment, safety, seals and gaskets, tools and testing instruments, as well as inventory management, asset repair and tracking, vendor managed inventory, radio frequency identification asset management, gearbox and fluid power assembly and repair, process pump assembly and repair, drive shaft repair, electrical panel assembly and repair, and hose and gasket manufacture and assembly services. The company was incorporated in 1928 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"GPC\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of GPC. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-03, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39656, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756855955.646777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756855955.646777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.484028806584362 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 6.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 5.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 11.0, 3.0, 3.0, 10.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Genuine Parts Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is GPC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:07) is 139.33. You can find more information about Genuine Parts Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPC\n\nGenuine Parts Company distributes automotive and industrial replacement parts. It operates in two segments, Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group. The company distributes automotive parts, accessories and solutions and replacement parts for hybrid and electric vehicles, trucks, SUVs, buses, motorcycles, farm equipment, and heavy duty equipment; and equipment parts and technologies. It also offers automotive parts, including brakes, batteries, filters, engine components, tools, accessories, and fluids; custom services, such as paint mixing, hydraulic hose assembly, battery testing, and key cutting; and accessories, tools, and equipment for servicing heavy duty and diesel vehicles, as well as operates service and mechanical repair centers for heavy vehicles. In addition, the company operates independent repair shops and auto care centers under the NAPA brand; and NAPA online, an online platform to browse, purchase, and have automotive products, as well as provides DIY workshops and training sessions to customers. Further, it provides abrasives, adhesives, sealants and tape, bearings, chemicals, cutting tools, electrical, facility maintenance, hose and fittings, hydraulics, janitorial, mechanical power transmission, pneumatics, process pumps and equipment, safety, seals and gaskets, tools and testing instruments, as well as inventory management, asset repair and tracking, vendor managed inventory, radio frequency identification asset management, gearbox and fluid power assembly and repair, process pump assembly and repair, drive shaft repair, electrical panel assembly and repair, and hose and gasket manufacture and assembly services. The company was incorporated in 1928 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"GPC\"}}`" }, { "id": 39654, "title": "Will AMT's market close price on 2025-09-10 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-02?", "short_title": "AMT's close price rises?", "url_title": "AMT's close price rises?", "slug": "amts-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:28.378053Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T01:05:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:01.302234Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:28.722539Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T02:35:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T02:35:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T19:26:45Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T01:05:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39031, "title": "Will AMT's market close price on 2025-09-10 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-02?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:28.378599Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T01:05:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T02:35:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T02:35:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T19:26:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T02:35:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T02:35:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "American Tower Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is AMT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:04) is 203.85. You can find more information about American Tower Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMT\n\nAmerican Tower, one of the largest global REITs, is a leading independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate with a portfolio of nearly 150,000 communications sites and a highly interconnected footprint of U.S. data center facilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"AMT\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of AMT. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-02, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39654, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756780464.345977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756780464.345977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5363888888888888 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 6.0, 4.0, 4.0, 17.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "American Tower Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is AMT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:04) is 203.85. You can find more information about American Tower Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMT\n\nAmerican Tower, one of the largest global REITs, is a leading independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate with a portfolio of nearly 150,000 communications sites and a highly interconnected footprint of U.S. data center facilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"AMT\"}}`" }, { "id": 39653, "title": "Will DOW's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "short_title": "DOW's close price rises?", "url_title": "DOW's close price rises?", "slug": "dows-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:27.237317Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T11:07:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:00.573165Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:27.603184Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:37:48Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:37:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T06:27:53Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:07:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T22:01:21.164382Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39030, "title": "Will DOW's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:27.237726Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:07:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T12:37:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T12:37:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T06:27:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:37:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:37:48Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dow Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DOW. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:03) is 24.63. You can find more information about Dow Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOW\n\nDow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and aromatics products; and other ethylene derivatives, such as polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber. The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers polyurethanes, including propylene oxide, propylene glycol, and polyether polyols; aromatic isocyanates and fully formulated polyurethane systems; and chlor-alkali and vinyl comprising chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride, and vinyl chloride monomer; and construction chemicals consisting of cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions, as well as coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites. The Performance Materials & Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings; and acrylics-based building blocks, silicon metals, siloxanes, and intermediates. The company also engages in the property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business. Dow Inc. was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DOW\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DOW. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-01, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39653, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756727193.397782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5175000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756727193.397782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5175000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4825, 0.5175000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.5082792792792794 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 14.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 9.0, 1.0, 2.0, 12.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dow Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DOW. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:03) is 24.63. You can find more information about Dow Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOW\n\nDow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and aromatics products; and other ethylene derivatives, such as polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber. The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers polyurethanes, including propylene oxide, propylene glycol, and polyether polyols; aromatic isocyanates and fully formulated polyurethane systems; and chlor-alkali and vinyl comprising chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride, and vinyl chloride monomer; and construction chemicals consisting of cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions, as well as coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites. The Performance Materials & Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings; and acrylics-based building blocks, silicon metals, siloxanes, and intermediates. The company also engages in the property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business. Dow Inc. was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DOW\"}}`" }, { "id": 39624, "title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-russia-test-a-nuclear-device-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:28:43.842666Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T15:16:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:23:42.053478Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:28:44.113618Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T15:16:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T16:21:08.593956Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T16:21:08.593956Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39001, "title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:28:43.843062Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T15:16:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "UK Mirror: [Russia warning as Vladimir Putin close to first nuclear bomb tests for 35 years](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-warning-vladimir-putin-close-35801201)\n\n> Military specialist Dmitry Stefanovich is the latest to signal that Vladimir Putin could soon sanction the restart. It is claimed the former Soviet Arctic test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is ready - should the dictator give the order.\n>  \n> The last confirmed tests in North Korea were in September 2017 and it is understood that leading pro-war Russian politicians have inspected the test site. Now the world waits to see if the Russian president gives the green light.\n\n> “We are closer to this situation than at any point since North Korea’s last nuclear tests,” said Stefanovich, of the Russian Centre for International Security, and a member of the Russian Academy of Science.\n\nSee also [Wikipedia List of nuclear weapons tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39322,\"question_id\":38673}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after August 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, Russia conducts a nuclear test, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.", "post_id": 39624, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756745133.20469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22875 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756745133.20469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22875 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1755432242860824 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "UK Mirror: [Russia warning as Vladimir Putin close to first nuclear bomb tests for 35 years](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-warning-vladimir-putin-close-35801201)\n\n> Military specialist Dmitry Stefanovich is the latest to signal that Vladimir Putin could soon sanction the restart. It is claimed the former Soviet Arctic test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is ready - should the dictator give the order.\n>  \n> The last confirmed tests in North Korea were in September 2017 and it is understood that leading pro-war Russian politicians have inspected the test site. Now the world waits to see if the Russian president gives the green light.\n\n> “We are closer to this situation than at any point since North Korea’s last nuclear tests,” said Stefanovich, of the Russian Centre for International Security, and a member of the Russian Academy of Science.\n\nSee also [Wikipedia List of nuclear weapons tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39322,\"question_id\":38673}}`" }, { "id": 39563, "title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from President Trump before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from POTUS by October 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from POTUS by October 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-senate-vote-on-a-rescission-proposal-from-potus-by-october-1-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:25.750360Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T19:55:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:00.343129Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:26.066685Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T19:55:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T16:21:08.593956Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T16:21:08.593956Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38940, "title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from President Trump before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:25.750787Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T19:55:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-05-29 20:10:46 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38177). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nRescission, a noun form of the verb \"rescind,\" is the term used by the US Congress when it rescinds spending that it had previously allocated. Under the US Constitution, the legislative branch appropriates funds, while the executive branch \"shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.\" In recent decades this has been commonly interpreted to mean the President typically must spend the funds that Congress has allocated. This interpretation was upheld by the Supreme Court in the landmark Train v. City of New York (see, e.g., discussion from[ <u>Taxpayers for Common Sense</u>](https://www.taxpayer.net/budget-appropriations-tax/train-v-city-of-new-york-a-landmark-case-in-budgetary-authority/)). In that case, President Richard Nixon directed the EPA to withhold water treatment funds to NYC that Congress had previously budgeted. The Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that the funds could not be withheld.\n\nIn order to allow Presidents a means by which they can rescind previously-allocated spending, Congress passed the [Impoundment Control Act of 1974](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974#Impoundment) (ICA). Under the ICA, Presidents wanting to avoid certain spending can send a special message to Congress (see proposals from President Trump's first term [here](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/budget-rescissions-deferrals/)) detailing the specific dollar amounts and reasons for each proposed rescission. Congress then has a 45-day window to accept the rescission proposal package. If Congress does not accept it, then the allocated funds must be released.\n\nFor its part, officials in the Trump Administration including Trump himself [have said](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-impoundment-and-how-trump-vows-to-use-it) they believe the ICA to be unconstitutional and therefore no rescission request is necessary, with Trump saying he would use \"the president’s long-recognized impoundment power to squeeze the bloated federal bureaucracy for massive savings.\"\n\nAt the time of this question, President Donald Trump [is reported](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-sending-9-4-billion-doge-cuts-package-congress-next-week) to nevertheless be preparing a rescissions package of about \\$9.4 billion, much of which is credited to Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative. According to [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/trump-budget-doge-npr-pbs-usaid-congress), the rescissions will primarily affect NPR, PBS, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).\n\nAccording to the [Conference Board](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment), this has come to a head recently due especially to US district courts blocking Administration attempts to suspend funding to USAID and other foreign aid programs:\n\n> Considering this case and related legal actions, some Republicans in Congress have called for the President to propose a rescission package to codify the funding cuts that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been making. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) [said](https://reason.com/2025/02/19/rand-paul-wants-doge-to-build-a-500-billion-rescission-package-for-congress-to-approve/) “I’d love to see a \\$500 billion rescission package. The Republicans right now in the Senate are actually agitating to increase spending. I'd much rather be voting on a bill to reduce spending than increase spending.\" Senator Paul [pitched](https://www.axios.com/2025/03/05/elon-musk-senate-republicans-spending-rand-paul) his plan to Elon Musk, the leader of DOGE, who reacted favorably, particularly because any rescission package would only require 51 votes in the Senate, bypassing Democratic opposition. Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-SC) also [supports](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) the plan: “It would be a big mistake if we don’t \\[vote on rescissions]. It’s the one way to make DOGE cuts real.”\n\n> Some Senators are skeptical that the Administration would ask for Congressional approval of spending cuts given how DOGE has operated so far. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) “Do you think that they’re asking for us to vote on this?” Senator Paul [added](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620), “There are forces in the administration who want to simply fight the constitutionality of the Impoundment Act. You might argue that there might not be an incentive to send a rescission package if you plan on fighting the constitutionality of the law.”\n\nHistorically, rescission requests were made by US presidents in 25 out of the 26 years from 1974 to 2000 ([GAO](https://www.gao.gov/assets/b-322906.pdf)) and then by President Trump in 2018 and 2021.\n\nSee related Metaculus questions:\n\n* [Compared to FY 2024, what will the US government's funding for international HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment be in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35601/us-govt-funding-for-global-hiv-relative-to-2024/)\n* [Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481/pepfar-program-terminated-before-january-1-2026/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38177,\"question_id\":37469}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after May 28, 2025, and before October 1, 2025, the United States Senate conducts a floor [vote](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/voting.htm) on the passage of a rescission proposal made by the US president pursuant to the [Impoundment Control Act of 1974](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48432).", "fine_print": "This question resolves as Yes upon the Senate conducting a floor vote on the rescission bill; actual passage is not required. \n\nAn example of a vote that would count is [H.R. 3](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3) from the 115th Congress, in which the Senate on June 20, 2018 in a 48-50 Yay/Nay roll-call vote rejected President Trump's [proposed rescission](https://www.congress.gov/congressional-record/volume-164/issue-74/house-section/article/H3832-1) of budget authority that was submitted on May 8, 2018.", "post_id": 39563, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756847853.093516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756847853.093516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.5015090336874525 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 20.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-05-29 20:10:46 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38177). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nRescission, a noun form of the verb \"rescind,\" is the term used by the US Congress when it rescinds spending that it had previously allocated. Under the US Constitution, the legislative branch appropriates funds, while the executive branch \"shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.\" In recent decades this has been commonly interpreted to mean the President typically must spend the funds that Congress has allocated. This interpretation was upheld by the Supreme Court in the landmark Train v. City of New York (see, e.g., discussion from[ <u>Taxpayers for Common Sense</u>](https://www.taxpayer.net/budget-appropriations-tax/train-v-city-of-new-york-a-landmark-case-in-budgetary-authority/)). In that case, President Richard Nixon directed the EPA to withhold water treatment funds to NYC that Congress had previously budgeted. The Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that the funds could not be withheld.\n\nIn order to allow Presidents a means by which they can rescind previously-allocated spending, Congress passed the [Impoundment Control Act of 1974](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974#Impoundment) (ICA). Under the ICA, Presidents wanting to avoid certain spending can send a special message to Congress (see proposals from President Trump's first term [here](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/budget-rescissions-deferrals/)) detailing the specific dollar amounts and reasons for each proposed rescission. Congress then has a 45-day window to accept the rescission proposal package. If Congress does not accept it, then the allocated funds must be released.\n\nFor its part, officials in the Trump Administration including Trump himself [have said](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-impoundment-and-how-trump-vows-to-use-it) they believe the ICA to be unconstitutional and therefore no rescission request is necessary, with Trump saying he would use \"the president’s long-recognized impoundment power to squeeze the bloated federal bureaucracy for massive savings.\"\n\nAt the time of this question, President Donald Trump [is reported](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-sending-9-4-billion-doge-cuts-package-congress-next-week) to nevertheless be preparing a rescissions package of about \\$9.4 billion, much of which is credited to Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative. According to [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/trump-budget-doge-npr-pbs-usaid-congress), the rescissions will primarily affect NPR, PBS, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).\n\nAccording to the [Conference Board](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment), this has come to a head recently due especially to US district courts blocking Administration attempts to suspend funding to USAID and other foreign aid programs:\n\n> Considering this case and related legal actions, some Republicans in Congress have called for the President to propose a rescission package to codify the funding cuts that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been making. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) [said](https://reason.com/2025/02/19/rand-paul-wants-doge-to-build-a-500-billion-rescission-package-for-congress-to-approve/) “I’d love to see a \\$500 billion rescission package. The Republicans right now in the Senate are actually agitating to increase spending. I'd much rather be voting on a bill to reduce spending than increase spending.\" Senator Paul [pitched](https://www.axios.com/2025/03/05/elon-musk-senate-republicans-spending-rand-paul) his plan to Elon Musk, the leader of DOGE, who reacted favorably, particularly because any rescission package would only require 51 votes in the Senate, bypassing Democratic opposition. Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-SC) also [supports](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) the plan: “It would be a big mistake if we don’t \\[vote on rescissions]. It’s the one way to make DOGE cuts real.”\n\n> Some Senators are skeptical that the Administration would ask for Congressional approval of spending cuts given how DOGE has operated so far. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) “Do you think that they’re asking for us to vote on this?” Senator Paul [added](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620), “There are forces in the administration who want to simply fight the constitutionality of the Impoundment Act. You might argue that there might not be an incentive to send a rescission package if you plan on fighting the constitutionality of the law.”\n\nHistorically, rescission requests were made by US presidents in 25 out of the 26 years from 1974 to 2000 ([GAO](https://www.gao.gov/assets/b-322906.pdf)) and then by President Trump in 2018 and 2021.\n\nSee related Metaculus questions:\n\n* [Compared to FY 2024, what will the US government's funding for international HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment be in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35601/us-govt-funding-for-global-hiv-relative-to-2024/)\n* [Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481/pepfar-program-terminated-before-january-1-2026/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38177,\"question_id\":37469}}`" } ] }
