Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=200
{ "count": 6248, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=220", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=180", "results": [ { "id": 39948, "title": "Will Aston Villa secure a victory on September 21, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Aston Villa secure a victory on September 21, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Aston Villa secure a victory on September 21, 2025?", "slug": "will-aston-villa-secure-a-victory-on-september-21-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:06.726165Z", "published_at": "2025-09-15T17:17:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:15.894226Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:07.071963Z", "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T18:47:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T18:47:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-23T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-22T04:10:53Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T17:17:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39491, "title": "Will Aston Villa secure a victory on September 21, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:06.726588Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T17:17:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-15T18:47:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-15T18:47:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-23T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-22T04:10:53Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:15.277115Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T18:47:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T18:47:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"0467f352-c5ee-4235-b223-005615193577\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question concerns the English Premier League fixture featuring Aston Villa, set to commence at 9:00AM Eastern Time on September 21, 2025. The determination hinges exclusively on the result achieved by Aston Villa during the standard 90 minutes of play, including any time added for stoppages. Should Aston Villa emerge as the winner at the conclusion of this period, the answer will be 'Yes'. If they are defeated, the answer will be 'No'. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the contest is played to completion. If the fixture is ultimately abandoned and not rescheduled, the answer will be 'No'. Only the official result at the end of regular time and stoppage time will be considered; extra time and penalty shootouts, if any, are disregarded.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39948, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757961478.658526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4225 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757961478.658526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4225 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3377549130763417 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.734110732106444, "peer_score": 6.976151461040249, "coverage": 0.9771243260966406, "relative_legacy_score": 0.014580379336280133, "weighted_coverage": 0.9771243260966406, "spot_peer_score": 10.887809704971684, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 43.734110732106444, "peer_archived_score": 6.976151461040249, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.014580379336280133, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.887809704971684, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"0467f352-c5ee-4235-b223-005615193577\"}}`" }, { "id": 39947, "title": "Will PNR's market close price on 2025-09-26 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-18?", "short_title": "PNR's close price rises?", "url_title": "PNR's close price rises?", "slug": "pnrs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:06.143155Z", "published_at": "2025-09-18T03:53:41Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:16.727371Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:06.416549Z", "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T05:23:41Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T05:23:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T10:33:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T10:33:47Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T03:53:41Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39490, "title": "Will PNR's market close price on 2025-09-26 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-18?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:06.143570Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T03:53:41Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-18T05:23:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-18T05:23:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T10:33:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T10:33:47Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:16.132125Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T05:23:41Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T05:23:41Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pentair plc is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is PNR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:32) is 110.95. You can find more information about Pentair plc at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNR\n\nPentair plc provides various water solutions in the United States, Western Europe, China, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Australia, Canada, and Japan. The company operates through three segments: Flow, Water Solutions, and Pool. The Flow segment designs, manufactures, and sells fluid treatment and pump products and systems, including pressure vessels, gas recovery solutions, membrane bioreactors, wastewater reuse systems and advanced membrane filtration, separation systems, water disposal pumps, water supply pumps, fluid transfer pumps, turbine pumps, solid handling pumps, and agricultural spray nozzles. This segment provides products under Pentair Flow, Aurora, Berkeley, Codeline, Fairbanks-Nijhuis, Haffmans, Hydromatic, Hypro, Jung Pumpen, Myers, Sta-Rite, Shurflo, Südmo, and X-Flow brand names. The Water Solutions segment offers commercial and residential water treatment products and systems, such as pressure tanks, control valves, activated carbon products, commercial ice machines, conventional filtration products, and point-of-entry and point-of-use water treatment systems for use in water filtration and water softening solutions, as well as commercial water management and filtration solutions in foodservice operations; and installation and preventative services for water management solutions for commercial operators under the Pentair Water Solutions, Everpure, Fleck, KBI, Manitowoc Ice, Pentek, and RainSoft brand names. The Pool segment provides residential and commercial pool equipment and accessories, including pumps, filters, heaters, lights, automatic controls, automatic cleaners, maintenance equipment, and pool accessories for residential and commercial pool maintenance, pool repair, renovation, service, construction, and aquaculture solutions. This segment offers products under the Pentair Pool, Kreepy Krauly, Pleatco, and Sta-Rite brand. Pentair plc was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"PNR\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of PNR. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-18, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39947, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758171782.168167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5025 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758171782.168167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5025 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5389833152958153 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 8.0, 8.0, 5.0, 13.0, 5.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -13.107296801965951, "peer_score": 0.6096182662801183, "coverage": 0.9623875981348531, "relative_legacy_score": -0.03308410072927956, "weighted_coverage": 0.9623875981348531, "spot_peer_score": 0.8167905974116466, "spot_baseline_score": -12.029423371771195, "baseline_archived_score": -13.107296801965951, "peer_archived_score": 0.6096182662801183, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.03308410072927956, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.8167905974116466, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -12.029423371771195 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pentair plc is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is PNR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:32) is 110.95. You can find more information about Pentair plc at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNR\n\nPentair plc provides various water solutions in the United States, Western Europe, China, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Australia, Canada, and Japan. The company operates through three segments: Flow, Water Solutions, and Pool. The Flow segment designs, manufactures, and sells fluid treatment and pump products and systems, including pressure vessels, gas recovery solutions, membrane bioreactors, wastewater reuse systems and advanced membrane filtration, separation systems, water disposal pumps, water supply pumps, fluid transfer pumps, turbine pumps, solid handling pumps, and agricultural spray nozzles. This segment provides products under Pentair Flow, Aurora, Berkeley, Codeline, Fairbanks-Nijhuis, Haffmans, Hydromatic, Hypro, Jung Pumpen, Myers, Sta-Rite, Shurflo, Südmo, and X-Flow brand names. The Water Solutions segment offers commercial and residential water treatment products and systems, such as pressure tanks, control valves, activated carbon products, commercial ice machines, conventional filtration products, and point-of-entry and point-of-use water treatment systems for use in water filtration and water softening solutions, as well as commercial water management and filtration solutions in foodservice operations; and installation and preventative services for water management solutions for commercial operators under the Pentair Water Solutions, Everpure, Fleck, KBI, Manitowoc Ice, Pentek, and RainSoft brand names. The Pool segment provides residential and commercial pool equipment and accessories, including pumps, filters, heaters, lights, automatic controls, automatic cleaners, maintenance equipment, and pool accessories for residential and commercial pool maintenance, pool repair, renovation, service, construction, and aquaculture solutions. This segment offers products under the Pentair Pool, Kreepy Krauly, Pleatco, and Sta-Rite brand. Pentair plc was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"PNR\"}}`" }, { "id": 39946, "title": "Will STX's market close price on 2025-09-26 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-18?", "short_title": "STX's close price rises?", "url_title": "STX's close price rises?", "slug": "stxs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:05.529983Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T23:33:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:17.544044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:05.834863Z", "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T01:03:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T01:03:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T17:58:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T17:58:28Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T23:33:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39489, "title": "Will STX's market close price on 2025-09-26 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-18?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:42:05.530423Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T23:33:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-18T01:03:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-18T01:03:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T17:58:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T17:58:28Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:16.985233Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T01:03:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T01:03:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Seagate Technology Holdings plc is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is STX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:30) is 195.99. You can find more information about Seagate Technology Holdings plc at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STX\n\nSeagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company offers mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. It also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, Expansion, and Basics product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives for personal computers and workstation applications; notebook drives traditional notebooks, convertible systems, and external storage applications, DVR HDDs for video streaming applications, and gaming SSDs for gaming rigs. In addition, the company provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform, that includes modular hardware and software to support enterprises' on-premise and cloud storage infrastructure needs. It sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. The company was founded in 1978 and is based in Singapore.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"STX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of STX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-18, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is STX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:30) is 195.99. You can find more information about Seagate Technology Holdings plc at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STX\n\nSeagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company offers mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. 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It's ticker is CME. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:29) is 262.3. You can find more information about CME Group Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CME\n\nCME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges; and trade processing and risk mitigation services. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. 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It's ticker is CME. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:29) is 262.3. You can find more information about CME Group Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CME\n\nCME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges; and trade processing and risk mitigation services. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. 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It's ticker is MKTX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:27) is 184.85. You can find more information about MarketAxess Holdings Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MKTX\n\nMarketAxess Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates an electronic trading platform for institutional investor and broker-dealer firms in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers trading technology to access liquidity on its platforms in U.S. high-grade bonds, U.S. high-yield bonds, emerging market debt, eurobonds, municipal bonds, U.S. government bonds, and other fixed-income securities; and executes bond trades between and among institutional investor and broker-dealer clients in an all-to-all anonymous trading environment for corporate bonds through its Open Trading protocols. 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It's ticker is MKTX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:27) is 184.85. You can find more information about MarketAxess Holdings Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MKTX\n\nMarketAxess Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates an electronic trading platform for institutional investor and broker-dealer firms in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers trading technology to access liquidity on its platforms in U.S. high-grade bonds, U.S. high-yield bonds, emerging market debt, eurobonds, municipal bonds, U.S. government bonds, and other fixed-income securities; and executes bond trades between and among institutional investor and broker-dealer clients in an all-to-all anonymous trading environment for corporate bonds through its Open Trading protocols. 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It's ticker is FDX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:26) is 229.55. You can find more information about FedEx Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FDX\n\nFedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. It operates through Federal Express and FedEx Freight segments. The company offers transportation services, including express, freight, less-than-truckload freight, and time-specific freight-shipping; and small-package ground delivery services. 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It's ticker is FDX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:26) is 229.55. You can find more information about FedEx Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FDX\n\nFedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. It operates through Federal Express and FedEx Freight segments. The company offers transportation services, including express, freight, less-than-truckload freight, and time-specific freight-shipping; and small-package ground delivery services. 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It's ticker is WM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:24) is 218.16. You can find more information about Waste Management, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WM\n\nWaste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas. 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It's ticker is WM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:24) is 218.16. You can find more information about Waste Management, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WM\n\nWaste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas. 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Further, it provides Regulated Waste and Compliance Services (RWCS), which offers compliance programs, as well as collection, processing, and disposal of regulated and specialized waste, including medical, pharmaceutical, and hazardous waste; and Secure Information Destruction (SID) services that includes the collection of personal and confidential information for secure destruction and recycling of sorted office paper. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. 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It's ticker is VMC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:23) is 294.94. You can find more information about Vulcan Materials Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VMC\n\nVulcan Materials Company produces and supplies construction aggregates in the United States. It operates through three segments: Aggregates, Asphalt, and Concrete. The company provides crushed stone, sand and gravel, sand, riprap and jetty stones, and other aggregates for use in construction and maintenance of highways, streets, and other public works, as well as in the construction of housing and commercial, industrial, and other nonresidential facilities; asphalt mix; asphalt construction paving services; and ready-mixed concrete products. The company was formerly known as Virginia Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to Vulcan Materials Company. 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It's ticker is WFC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:21) is 81.46. You can find more information about Wells Fargo & Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WFC\n\nWells Fargo & Company, a financial services company, provides diversified banking, investment, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance products and services in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Consumer Banking and Lending; Commercial Banking; Corporate and Investment Banking; and Wealth and Investment Management. The Consumer Banking and Lending segment offers diversified financial products and services for consumers and small businesses. Its financial products and services include checking and savings accounts, and credit and debit cards, as well as home, auto, personal, and small business lending services. The Commercial Banking segment provides financial solutions to private, family owned, and certain public companies. 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It's ticker is WFC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:21) is 81.46. You can find more information about Wells Fargo & Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WFC\n\nWells Fargo & Company, a financial services company, provides diversified banking, investment, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance products and services in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Consumer Banking and Lending; Commercial Banking; Corporate and Investment Banking; and Wealth and Investment Management. The Consumer Banking and Lending segment offers diversified financial products and services for consumers and small businesses. Its financial products and services include checking and savings accounts, and credit and debit cards, as well as home, auto, personal, and small business lending services. The Commercial Banking segment provides financial solutions to private, family owned, and certain public companies. 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It's ticker is TSLA. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:20) is 395.94. You can find more information about Tesla, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA\n\nTesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty after-sales vehicle, used vehicles, body shop and parts, supercharging, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance services. 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It's ticker is EVRG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:18) is 72.52. You can find more information about Evergy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EVRG\n\nEvergy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity in the United States. It generates electricity through coal, landfill gas, uranium, and natural gas and oil sources, as well as solar, wind, other renewable sources. The company serves residences, commercial firms, industrials, municipalities, and other electric utilities. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EVRG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of EVRG. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-15, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. 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It's ticker is BK. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:17) is 106.48. You can find more information about The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BK\n\nThe Bank of New York Mellon Corporation provides a range of financial products and services in the United States and internationally. It operates through Securities Services, Market and Wealth Services, Investment and Wealth Management, and Other segments. The Securities Services segment offers custody, trust and depositary, accounting, exchange-traded funds, middle-office solutions, transfer agency, services for private equity and real estate funds, foreign exchange, securities lending, liquidity/lending services, and data analytics. This segment also provides trustee, paying agency, fiduciary, escrow and other financial, issuer, and support services for brokers and investors. 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It's ticker is BK. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:17) is 106.48. You can find more information about The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BK\n\nThe Bank of New York Mellon Corporation provides a range of financial products and services in the United States and internationally. It operates through Securities Services, Market and Wealth Services, Investment and Wealth Management, and Other segments. The Securities Services segment offers custody, trust and depositary, accounting, exchange-traded funds, middle-office solutions, transfer agency, services for private equity and real estate funds, foreign exchange, securities lending, liquidity/lending services, and data analytics. This segment also provides trustee, paying agency, fiduciary, escrow and other financial, issuer, and support services for brokers and investors. The Market and Wealth Services segment offers clearing and custody, investment, wealth and retirement solutions, technology and enterprise data management, trading, and prime brokerage services. This segment also provides integrated cash management solutions, including payments, foreign exchange, liquidity management, receivables processing, payables management, and trade finance, as well as U.S. government and global clearing, and tri-party services. The Investment and Wealth Management segment offers investment management strategies, investment products distribution, investment management, custody, wealth and estate planning, private banking, investment, and information management services. The Other segment provides leasing, corporate treasury, derivative and other trading, corporate and bank-owned life insurance, tax credit investment, other corporate investment, and business exit services. The company serves central banks and sovereigns, financial institutions, asset managers, insurance companies, corporations, local authorities and high net-worth individuals, and family offices. The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation was founded in 1784 and is headquartered in New York, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BK\"}}`" }, { "id": 39936, "title": "Will RVTY's market close price on 2025-09-27 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-15?", "short_title": "RVTY's close price rises?", "url_title": "RVTY's close price rises?", "slug": "rvtys-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:58.717534Z", "published_at": "2025-09-15T16:49:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:25.885197Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:59.026362Z", "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T18:19:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T18:19:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T17:44:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T17:44:38Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T16:49:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39479, "title": "Will RVTY's market close price on 2025-09-27 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-15?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:58.717994Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T16:49:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-15T18:19:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-15T18:19:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T17:44:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T17:44:38Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:25.359413Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T18:19:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T18:19:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Revvity, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is RVTY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:15) is 82.87. You can find more information about Revvity, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RVTY\n\nRevvity, Inc. provides health sciences solutions, technologies, and services. The company provides instruments, reagents, informatics, software, subscriptions, detection, imaging technologies, warranties, training, and DNA sequencing services; and instruments, reagents, assay platforms, and software products for the early detection of genetic disorders, such as pregnancy and early childhood, as well as infectious disease testing in the diagnostics market. Its products are used for testing and screening genetic abnormalities, disorders, and diseases, including down syndrome, hypothyroidism, muscular dystrophy, infertility, and various metabolic conditions. The company also develops technologies that enable and support genomic workflows using protein coupled receptor and next-generation DNA sequencing for oncology, screening newborns for rare genetic conditions, immunodiagnostics, and drug discovery. It serves pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, laboratories, academic and research institutions, public health authorities, private healthcare organizations, doctors, and government agencies under the AutoDELFIA, BACS-on-Beads, BIOCHIPs, Bioo Scientific, BioQule, BoBs, chemagic, Chitas, DELFIA, DELFIA Xpress, DOPlify, EONIS, EUROArray, EUROIMMUN, EUROLabWorkstation, EUROLINE, EUROPatternTM, Evolution Evoya, explorer, Fontus, GSP, Haoyuan, IDS Immunodiagnosticsystems, IDS-i10, IDS-i10T, IDS-iSYS, iLab, iQ, JANUS, LabChip, LifeCycle, LimsLink, Migele, MultiPROBE, NEXTFLEX, NextPrep, Omni Bead Ruptor, Omni Bead Ruptor Elite, Omni Tip, Pannoramic, Panthera Puncher, PG-Seq, PG-Find, PreNAT II, Prime, Protein Clear, ProteinEXact, QuantiVac, RONIA, Sciclone, SimplicityChrom, Specimen Gate, Superflex, Symbio, T-SPOT, Touch, Twister, Vanadis, VariSpec, ViaCord, VICTOR2D, and Zephyr names. The company was formerly known as PerkinElmer, Inc. and changed its name to Revvity, Inc. in April 2023. Revvity, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"RVTY\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of RVTY. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-15, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39936, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757959537.866758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5033333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757959537.866758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5033333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4966666666666666, 0.5033333333333334 ], "means": [ 0.49524830065359493 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 8.0, 2.0, 4.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 8.0, 4.0, 3.0, 17.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 0.39009739148720946, "peer_score": 3.824864875929501, "coverage": 0.9790527251914696, "relative_legacy_score": 0.015779684414991085, "weighted_coverage": 0.9790527251914696, "spot_peer_score": 3.257338838652385, "spot_baseline_score": 0.9586048829198252, "baseline_archived_score": 0.39009739148720946, "peer_archived_score": 3.824864875929501, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.015779684414991085, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.257338838652385, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.9586048829198252 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Revvity, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is RVTY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-15 09:32:15) is 82.87. You can find more information about Revvity, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RVTY\n\nRevvity, Inc. provides health sciences solutions, technologies, and services. The company provides instruments, reagents, informatics, software, subscriptions, detection, imaging technologies, warranties, training, and DNA sequencing services; and instruments, reagents, assay platforms, and software products for the early detection of genetic disorders, such as pregnancy and early childhood, as well as infectious disease testing in the diagnostics market. Its products are used for testing and screening genetic abnormalities, disorders, and diseases, including down syndrome, hypothyroidism, muscular dystrophy, infertility, and various metabolic conditions. The company also develops technologies that enable and support genomic workflows using protein coupled receptor and next-generation DNA sequencing for oncology, screening newborns for rare genetic conditions, immunodiagnostics, and drug discovery. It serves pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, laboratories, academic and research institutions, public health authorities, private healthcare organizations, doctors, and government agencies under the AutoDELFIA, BACS-on-Beads, BIOCHIPs, Bioo Scientific, BioQule, BoBs, chemagic, Chitas, DELFIA, DELFIA Xpress, DOPlify, EONIS, EUROArray, EUROIMMUN, EUROLabWorkstation, EUROLINE, EUROPatternTM, Evolution Evoya, explorer, Fontus, GSP, Haoyuan, IDS Immunodiagnosticsystems, IDS-i10, IDS-i10T, IDS-iSYS, iLab, iQ, JANUS, LabChip, LifeCycle, LimsLink, Migele, MultiPROBE, NEXTFLEX, NextPrep, Omni Bead Ruptor, Omni Bead Ruptor Elite, Omni Tip, Pannoramic, Panthera Puncher, PG-Seq, PG-Find, PreNAT II, Prime, Protein Clear, ProteinEXact, QuantiVac, RONIA, Sciclone, SimplicityChrom, Specimen Gate, Superflex, Symbio, T-SPOT, Touch, Twister, Vanadis, VariSpec, ViaCord, VICTOR2D, and Zephyr names. The company was formerly known as PerkinElmer, Inc. and changed its name to Revvity, Inc. in April 2023. Revvity, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"RVTY\"}}`" }, { "id": 39935, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 91.00% on 2025-09-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-zohran-mamdani-be-elected-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:58.084735Z", "published_at": "2025-09-15T23:23:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:26.739447Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:58.379705Z", "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T00:53:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T00:53:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T08:56:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T08:56:03Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T23:23:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39478, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 91.00% on 2025-09-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:58.085206Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T23:23:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-16T00:53:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-16T00:53:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T08:56:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-24T08:56:03Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:26.120704Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T00:53:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T00:53:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665\n- Original question title: Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 91.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if Zohran Mamdani is elected mayor of New York City in the [2025 New York City mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_York_City_mayoral_election). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question may resolve as No before the general election if Mamdani loses the Democratic primary and announces he will not run in the general election.\n\nOriginal background: \n> New York City holds its mayoral race on November 4, 2025. The race is expected to be between:\n> \n> * Zohran Mamdani, if he wins the Democratic nomination or possibly as the candidate of the [Working Families Party](https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2025/04/wfp-will-not-give-general-election-ballot-line-andrew-cuomo/404264/) if he doesn't.\n> * Andrew Cuomo, if he wins the Democratic nomination or as an [independent](https://nypost.com/2025/05/06/us-news/andrew-cuomo-will-run-on-independent-fight-and-deliver-ballot-line-if-he-doesnt-win-nyc-dem-primary/) if he doesn't. \n> * Eric Adams, current mayor of NY, elected as a Democrat for his first term but now [running as an independent](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/nyregion/eric-adams-independent-mayor.html). \n> * Curtis Sliwa, founder of the [Guardian Angels](https://www.guardianangels.org/) and the Republican candidate.\n> \n> NYC mayoral polling averages can be found at the [RaceToTheWH.com website](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38665,\"question_id\":37886,\"last_cp\":0.91}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665). If the community prediction on 2025-09-24 08:56:03 is higher than 91.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39935, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757981113.18512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.425 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757981113.18512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.425 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5811511715797429 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 23.507176933091614, "peer_score": 11.40762772001676, "coverage": 0.9819287883352351, "relative_legacy_score": 0.006903628074757872, "weighted_coverage": 0.9819287883352351, "spot_peer_score": 12.075741193380887, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 23.507176933091614, "peer_archived_score": 11.40762772001676, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.006903628074757872, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.075741193380887, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665\n- Original question title: Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 91.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if Zohran Mamdani is elected mayor of New York City in the [2025 New York City mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_York_City_mayoral_election). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question may resolve as No before the general election if Mamdani loses the Democratic primary and announces he will not run in the general election.\n\nOriginal background: \n> New York City holds its mayoral race on November 4, 2025. The race is expected to be between:\n> \n> * Zohran Mamdani, if he wins the Democratic nomination or possibly as the candidate of the [Working Families Party](https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2025/04/wfp-will-not-give-general-election-ballot-line-andrew-cuomo/404264/) if he doesn't.\n> * Andrew Cuomo, if he wins the Democratic nomination or as an [independent](https://nypost.com/2025/05/06/us-news/andrew-cuomo-will-run-on-independent-fight-and-deliver-ballot-line-if-he-doesnt-win-nyc-dem-primary/) if he doesn't. \n> * Eric Adams, current mayor of NY, elected as a Democrat for his first term but now [running as an independent](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/nyregion/eric-adams-independent-mayor.html). \n> * Curtis Sliwa, founder of the [Guardian Angels](https://www.guardianangels.org/) and the Republican candidate.\n> \n> NYC mayoral polling averages can be found at the [RaceToTheWH.com website](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38665,\"question_id\":37886,\"last_cp\":0.91}}`" }, { "id": 39934, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-doj-to-investigate-or-prosecute-top-democrat-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:57.444243Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T01:55:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:27.584877Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:57.804185Z", "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T03:25:10Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T03:25:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T04:38:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T04:38:30Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T01:55:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39477, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:57.444667Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T01:55:10Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T03:25:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T03:25:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T04:38:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T04:38:30Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:26.991985Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T03:25:10Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T03:25:10Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 35.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n> \n> \\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n> \n> \\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n> \n> -Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n> \n> \\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n> \n> \\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34514,\"question_id\":34029,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514). If the community prediction on 2025-09-27 04:38:30 is higher than 35.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39934, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758078798.582389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.395 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758078798.582389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.395 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.605, 0.395 ], "means": [ 0.392562717770035 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 14.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.007456703167946, "peer_score": 16.655195957888264, "coverage": 0.9813052787162639, "relative_legacy_score": -0.028371494246232882, "weighted_coverage": 0.9813052787162639, "spot_peer_score": 6.498981614648624, "spot_baseline_score": 27.500704749986976, "baseline_archived_score": 18.007456703167946, "peer_archived_score": 16.655195957888264, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.028371494246232882, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.498981614648624, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 27.500704749986976 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 35.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n> \n> \\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n> \n> \\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n> \n> -Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n> \n> \\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n> \n> \\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34514,\"question_id\":34029,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`" }, { "id": 39933, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 88.00% on 2025-09-26 for the Metaculus question \"Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"India GDP > Japan GDP (2025)?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"India GDP > Japan GDP (2025)?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-india-gdp-japan-gdp-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:56.732771Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T19:06:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:28.502265Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:57.060855Z", "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T20:36:44Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T20:36:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T17:48:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T17:48:38Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T19:06:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39476, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 88.00% on 2025-09-26 for the Metaculus question \"Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:56.733344Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T19:06:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-16T20:36:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-16T20:36:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T17:48:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T17:48:38Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:27.848831Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T20:36:44Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T20:36:44Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577\n- Original question title: Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 88.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, India's nominal GDP for 2025 exceeds that of Japan by the end of that year. It will be resolved as **No** if Japan's GDP remains higher or if both are equivalent.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The resolution will use the most recent data available from the [ <u>IMF</u> ]World Economic Outlook database(https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) (\"GDP, current prices Billions of US dollars\"), as of 7 January 2026. The expected release date is October 2025.\n\nOriginal background: \n> India and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35577,\"question_id\":35027,\"last_cp\":0.88}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577). If the community prediction on 2025-09-26 17:48:38 is higher than 88.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39933, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758054276.713924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758054276.713924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.525, 0.475 ], "means": [ 0.49209542933639305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -10.672509673688559, "peer_score": 2.608557134707819, "coverage": 0.9900533033300328, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0923531428815054, "weighted_coverage": 0.9900533033300328, "spot_peer_score": 2.6097275711423875, "spot_baseline_score": -7.400058144377692, "baseline_archived_score": -10.672509673688559, "peer_archived_score": 2.608557134707819, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0923531428815054, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.6097275711423875, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -7.400058144377692 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577\n- Original question title: Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 88.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, India's nominal GDP for 2025 exceeds that of Japan by the end of that year. It will be resolved as **No** if Japan's GDP remains higher or if both are equivalent.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The resolution will use the most recent data available from the [ <u>IMF</u> ]World Economic Outlook database(https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) (\"GDP, current prices Billions of US dollars\"), as of 7 January 2026. The expected release date is October 2025.\n\nOriginal background: \n> India and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35577,\"question_id\":35027,\"last_cp\":0.88}}`" }, { "id": 39932, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-09-23 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:55.921272Z", "published_at": "2025-09-15T20:02:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:29.352113Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:56.252224Z", "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T21:32:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T21:32:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-23T22:15:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-23T22:15:16Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T20:02:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39475, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-09-23 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:55.921734Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T20:02:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-15T21:32:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-15T21:32:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-23T22:15:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-23T22:15:16Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:28.738457Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T21:32:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T21:32:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307). 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Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`" }, { "id": 39931, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.10% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question \"Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between in Jun-Dec 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between in Jun-Dec 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-any-new-country-attack-israel-or-iran-between-in-jun-dec-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:55.095569Z", "published_at": "2025-09-15T23:03:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:30.162446Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:55.433664Z", "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T00:33:30Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T00:33:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T12:13:52Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T12:13:52Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T23:03:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39474, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.10% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question \"Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:55.095985Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T23:03:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-16T00:33:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-16T00:33:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T12:13:52Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T12:13:52Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:29.608071Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T00:33:30Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T00:33:30Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38712\n- Original question title: Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 9.10%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 30, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any country besides Israel, Iran, Palestine, or the US attacks Israel or Iran.\n> \n> For the purposes of this question, an attack is defined as either:\n> \n> * A kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear attack targeting officials, infrastructure, or the military, occurring within the borders of Israel or Iran. (See Fine Print for detailed explanation of Israel's borders.)\n> * At least 20 official military personnel entering the internationally recognised land borders of Israel or Iran, without the Israel or Iran's overt permission.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Attacks that are part of covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n> * Attacks targeting officials of Israel or Iran will count even if they are conducted outside of each countries internationally recognised borders.\n> * For the purposes of this question, Israel's borders are defined based on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will count.\n> * The attacking country has to either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its official armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) unambiguously attribute it to its armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n> * For the purposes of this question, a country is a UN member or non-member observer state.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries. On June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38712,\"question_id\":37997,\"last_cp\":0.091}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38712). If the community prediction on 2025-09-27 12:13:52 is higher than 9.10%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39931, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757981651.593804, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.295 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757981651.593804, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.295 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3839268683862431 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 35.16006032648052, "peer_score": 13.427800557336639, "coverage": 0.9877225059050102, "relative_legacy_score": 0.07543484541582025, "weighted_coverage": 0.9877225059050102, "spot_peer_score": 13.904789541230617, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 35.16006032648052, "peer_archived_score": 13.427800557336639, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.07543484541582025, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.904789541230617, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38712\n- Original question title: Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 9.10%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 30, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any country besides Israel, Iran, Palestine, or the US attacks Israel or Iran.\n> \n> For the purposes of this question, an attack is defined as either:\n> \n> * A kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear attack targeting officials, infrastructure, or the military, occurring within the borders of Israel or Iran. (See Fine Print for detailed explanation of Israel's borders.)\n> * At least 20 official military personnel entering the internationally recognised land borders of Israel or Iran, without the Israel or Iran's overt permission.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Attacks that are part of covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n> * Attacks targeting officials of Israel or Iran will count even if they are conducted outside of each countries internationally recognised borders.\n> * For the purposes of this question, Israel's borders are defined based on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will count.\n> * The attacking country has to either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its official armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) unambiguously attribute it to its armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n> * For the purposes of this question, a country is a UN member or non-member observer state.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries. On June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38712,\"question_id\":37997,\"last_cp\":0.091}}`" }, { "id": 39930, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 95.00% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question \"Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the Ibex rise in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the Ibex rise in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-ibex-rise-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:54.296276Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T22:43:38Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:31.090114Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:54.795596Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T00:13:38Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T00:13:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T00:23:50Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T00:23:50Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T22:43:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39473, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 95.00% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question \"Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:54.296724Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T22:43:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T00:13:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T00:13:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T00:23:50Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T00:23:50Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:30.414158Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T00:13:38Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T00:13:38Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35572\n- Original question title: Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 95.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the official closing value of the Ibex 35 on the last business day of 2025 (normally December 31st or the previous session if it falls on a holiday) exceeds 11,595.00, according to the Close column of [ <u>its page on Yahoo Finance</u> ](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIBEX/history/). It will be resolved as **No** if the value is equal to or less than €11,595.00.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • If Yahoo Finance stops reporting this data, a credible alternative source can be used to resolve this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Ibex 35 is the main stock market index of the Madrid Stock Exchange. It serves as a key barometer of the Spanish economy, reflecting national and international economic conditions. The composition of the index can be explored in detail [ <u>on Wikipedia</u> ](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBEX_35) <u>.</u>\n> After leading the growth of EU stock markets in 2023 with a 23% increase, the IBEX 35 has remained near the top of the table in 2024, rising by 14.78%. It was the [ <u>second best-performing stock market index among major European markets</u> ](https://www.bolsasymercados.es/docs/infmercado/2024/ing/Market-Report-BME-2024.pdf).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35572,\"question_id\":35022,\"last_cp\":0.95}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35572). If the community prediction on 2025-09-27 00:23:50 is higher than 95.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39930, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758065642.468942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758065642.468942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4712006119716963 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -11.547348009415824, "peer_score": 6.530379809186668, "coverage": 0.9753124322273115, "relative_legacy_score": -0.010150280592195072, "weighted_coverage": 0.9753124322273115, "spot_peer_score": 5.566426633231625, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344504996, "baseline_archived_score": -11.547348009415824, "peer_archived_score": 6.530379809186668, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.010150280592195072, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.566426633231625, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344504996 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35572\n- Original question title: Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 95.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the official closing value of the Ibex 35 on the last business day of 2025 (normally December 31st or the previous session if it falls on a holiday) exceeds 11,595.00, according to the Close column of [ <u>its page on Yahoo Finance</u> ](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIBEX/history/). It will be resolved as **No** if the value is equal to or less than €11,595.00.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • If Yahoo Finance stops reporting this data, a credible alternative source can be used to resolve this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Ibex 35 is the main stock market index of the Madrid Stock Exchange. It serves as a key barometer of the Spanish economy, reflecting national and international economic conditions. The composition of the index can be explored in detail [ <u>on Wikipedia</u> ](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBEX_35) <u>.</u>\n> After leading the growth of EU stock markets in 2023 with a 23% increase, the IBEX 35 has remained near the top of the table in 2024, rising by 14.78%. It was the [ <u>second best-performing stock market index among major European markets</u> ](https://www.bolsasymercados.es/docs/infmercado/2024/ing/Market-Report-BME-2024.pdf).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35572,\"question_id\":35022,\"last_cp\":0.95}}`" }, { "id": 39929, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-09-23 for the Metaculus question \"Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI >85% in FrontierMath before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI >85% in FrontierMath before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-ai-85-in-frontiermath-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:53.072536Z", "published_at": "2025-09-15T14:30:41Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:31.930725Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:53.717190Z", "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T16:00:41Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T16:00:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-23T14:02:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-23T14:02:27Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T14:30:41Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39472, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-09-23 for the Metaculus question \"Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:53.073005Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T14:30:41Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-15T16:00:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-15T16:00:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-23T14:02:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-23T14:02:27Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:31.334634Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T16:00:41Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T16:00:41Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562\n- Original question title: Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 15.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, by January 1, 2026, at least one AI system is documented to achieve greater than 85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark.\n> \n> The achievement must be reported in a document (such as a peer-reviewed paper, conference presentation, official benchmark publication, or a blog post by the AI developer). A simple reference to progress or internal assessments, without published performance results, will not qualify. If these results are not published, the question will be resolved as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> The FrontierMath benchmark, detailed on <u>Epoch AI’s [ FrontierMath page</u> ](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark), is designed to test cutting-edge mathematical reasoning in AI systems. It consists of challenging, non-trivial problems that require both symbolic and numerical reasoning, going far beyond the scope of standard mathematical benchmarks. As AI research is rapidly advancing—with progress on large language models (LLMs) and mathematical “reasoning” systems—achieving a score above 85% on FrontierMath would signal a significant advancement in the field.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35562,\"question_id\":35013,\"last_cp\":0.15}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562). If the community prediction on 2025-09-23 14:02:27 is higher than 15.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39929, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757951949.250688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757951949.250688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3502246216315983 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 7.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.63051551968945, "peer_score": 10.173179000753828, "coverage": 0.9654685423992299, "relative_legacy_score": 0.1356567893312305, "weighted_coverage": 0.9654685423992299, "spot_peer_score": 9.905673572481776, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830476, "baseline_archived_score": 43.63051551968945, "peer_archived_score": 10.173179000753828, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.1356567893312305, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.905673572481776, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830476 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562\n- Original question title: Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 15.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, by January 1, 2026, at least one AI system is documented to achieve greater than 85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark.\n> \n> The achievement must be reported in a document (such as a peer-reviewed paper, conference presentation, official benchmark publication, or a blog post by the AI developer). A simple reference to progress or internal assessments, without published performance results, will not qualify. If these results are not published, the question will be resolved as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> The FrontierMath benchmark, detailed on <u>Epoch AI’s [ FrontierMath page</u> ](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark), is designed to test cutting-edge mathematical reasoning in AI systems. It consists of challenging, non-trivial problems that require both symbolic and numerical reasoning, going far beyond the scope of standard mathematical benchmarks. As AI research is rapidly advancing—with progress on large language models (LLMs) and mathematical “reasoning” systems—achieving a score above 85% on FrontierMath would signal a significant advancement in the field.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35562,\"question_id\":35013,\"last_cp\":0.15}}`" } ] }