Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=200
{ "count": 5885, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=220", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=180", "results": [ { "id": 39102, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 75.00% on 2025-08-12 for the Metaculus question 'Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:49.228121Z", "published_at": "2025-08-09T17:22:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.851536Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:49.535416Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-09T18:22:27Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-09T18:22:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-12T09:51:04Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:36Z", "open_time": "2025-08-09T17:22:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38431, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 75.00% on 2025-08-12 for the Metaculus question 'Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:49.228543Z", "open_time": "2025-08-09T17:22:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-09T18:22:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-09T18:22:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-12T09:51:04Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:36Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:04.443858Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-09T18:22:27Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-09T18:22:27Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38209\n- Original question title: Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 75.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 4, 2026 ET, the U.S. Department of Justice officially rescinds, removes, or otherwise eliminates the current requirement that U.S. attorneys must consult with or seek approval from the Public Integrity Section (PIN) before initiating prosecutions of federal, state, or local lawmakers.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or an official DOJ policy announcement, memorandum, or revision to internal guidelines (such as updates to the Justice Manual) explicitly stating that this consultation requirement has been removed.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The question refers to federal policy applying nationwide. If the DOJ removes this requirement only in part or for specific districts but maintains it elsewhere, the question will *not* resolve based on this alone.\n> * A shift in informal practice or failure to enforce the consultation requirement will not suffice. There must be an official policy change.\n> * The removal must be in effect before the deadline. A policy being proposed or announced but not implemented will not count.\n> * If a court blocks the removal of the Public Integrity Section policy, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the revocation is enacted in defiance of said court order.\n> * This question concerns only the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with PIN before initiating prosecutions of lawmakers. If other DOJ rules get changed, such as the current requirement to consult with PIN before taking nonpublic investigative steps, this would not in itself be sufficient to resolve the question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In May 2025, a Justice Department spokesman confirmed that the Trump Justice Department was considering removing the longstanding requirement that U.S. attorneys consult with the [Public Integrity Section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Integrity_Section) (PIN) before prosecuting lawmakers ([<u>The Washington Post</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/17/trump-justice-department-prosecutions/)). PIN, established post-Watergate, was designed to prevent politically motivated prosecutions by ensuring oversight from a centralized non-partisan unit. Under current DOJ policy, PIN attorneys must be consulted on investigative steps, and any charges against members of Congress require their approval.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38209,\"question_id\":37484,\"last_cp\":0.75}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38209. If the community prediction on 2025-08-12 09:51:04 is higher than 0.75, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39102, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754762650.38436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754762650.38436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4319444811615214 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9158212563456052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13555183381373762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0899332282517045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.567455575912104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2659211825430975, 0.0, 2.806274209277181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.280166337997597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01810995244806096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4664207242978497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8621508369831979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7006512503374966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9308950493588615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0978269360296038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02075297689962095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 24.42662446019329, "peer_score": 9.385755488714743, "coverage": 0.9276651697026359, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9276651697026359, "spot_peer_score": 9.796038514589116, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 24.42662446019329, "peer_archived_score": 9.385755488714743, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.796038514589116, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38209\n- Original question title: Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 75.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 4, 2026 ET, the U.S. Department of Justice officially rescinds, removes, or otherwise eliminates the current requirement that U.S. attorneys must consult with or seek approval from the Public Integrity Section (PIN) before initiating prosecutions of federal, state, or local lawmakers.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or an official DOJ policy announcement, memorandum, or revision to internal guidelines (such as updates to the Justice Manual) explicitly stating that this consultation requirement has been removed.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The question refers to federal policy applying nationwide. If the DOJ removes this requirement only in part or for specific districts but maintains it elsewhere, the question will *not* resolve based on this alone.\n> * A shift in informal practice or failure to enforce the consultation requirement will not suffice. There must be an official policy change.\n> * The removal must be in effect before the deadline. A policy being proposed or announced but not implemented will not count.\n> * If a court blocks the removal of the Public Integrity Section policy, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the revocation is enacted in defiance of said court order.\n> * This question concerns only the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with PIN before initiating prosecutions of lawmakers. If other DOJ rules get changed, such as the current requirement to consult with PIN before taking nonpublic investigative steps, this would not in itself be sufficient to resolve the question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In May 2025, a Justice Department spokesman confirmed that the Trump Justice Department was considering removing the longstanding requirement that U.S. attorneys consult with the [Public Integrity Section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Integrity_Section) (PIN) before prosecuting lawmakers ([<u>The Washington Post</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/17/trump-justice-department-prosecutions/)). PIN, established post-Watergate, was designed to prevent politically motivated prosecutions by ensuring oversight from a centralized non-partisan unit. Under current DOJ policy, PIN attorneys must be consulted on investigative steps, and any charges against members of Congress require their approval.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38209,\"question_id\":37484,\"last_cp\":0.75}}`" }, { "id": 39101, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 89.00% on 2025-08-13 for the Metaculus question 'Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"MetOp-SG orbit before Sep 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"MetOp-SG orbit before Sep 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-metop-sg-orbit-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:48.611435Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T20:06:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.781010Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:48.917356Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T21:06:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T21:06:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T21:25:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:40Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T20:06:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38430, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 89.00% on 2025-08-13 for the Metaculus question 'Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:48.611836Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T20:06:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T21:06:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T21:06:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T21:25:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:40Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:40.519579Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T21:06:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T21:06:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38892\n- Original question title: Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 89.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, MetOp-SG-A1 enters orbit around Earth.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purpose of this question, a satellite is considered to be in orbit if it maintains a trajectory that continuously circles Earth for at least one day.\n> \n> If MetOp-SG-A1 is destroyed this question will immediately resolve as **No**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [MetOp-SG](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MetOp-SG) (Meteorological Operational Satellite–Second Generation) is a program developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and EUMETSAT to provide continued meteorological and atmospheric observations for Europe. The program succeeds the first generation of MetOp satellites, extending and improving data collection for applications such as weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and environmental research.\n> \n> The first satellite in the program, MetOp-SG-A1, is scheduled for launch in [August 2025](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Meteorological_missions/MetOp_Second_Generation/First_MetOp_Second_Generation_satellite_to_launch_in_August) from the Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana using an Ariane 6 rocket. As of [June 2025](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/06/08/airbus-metop-sg-satellite-is-ready-for-use/), MetOp-SG-A1 had arrived at the launch facility and was undergoing pre-launch testing. The next satellite, MetOp-SG-B1, is planned for launch in 2026, with [additional launches](https://www.eumetsat.int/planned-launches) set to follow over the subsequent years.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38892,\"question_id\":38215,\"last_cp\":0.89}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38892. If the community prediction on 2025-08-13 21:25:10 is higher than 0.89, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39101, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38892\n- Original question title: Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 89.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, MetOp-SG-A1 enters orbit around Earth.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purpose of this question, a satellite is considered to be in orbit if it maintains a trajectory that continuously circles Earth for at least one day.\n> \n> If MetOp-SG-A1 is destroyed this question will immediately resolve as **No**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [MetOp-SG](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MetOp-SG) (Meteorological Operational Satellite–Second Generation) is a program developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and EUMETSAT to provide continued meteorological and atmospheric observations for Europe. The program succeeds the first generation of MetOp satellites, extending and improving data collection for applications such as weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and environmental research.\n> \n> The first satellite in the program, MetOp-SG-A1, is scheduled for launch in [August 2025](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Meteorological_missions/MetOp_Second_Generation/First_MetOp_Second_Generation_satellite_to_launch_in_August) from the Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana using an Ariane 6 rocket. As of [June 2025](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/06/08/airbus-metop-sg-satellite-is-ready-for-use/), MetOp-SG-A1 had arrived at the launch facility and was undergoing pre-launch testing. The next satellite, MetOp-SG-B1, is planned for launch in 2026, with [additional launches](https://www.eumetsat.int/planned-launches) set to follow over the subsequent years.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38892,\"question_id\":38215,\"last_cp\":0.89}}`" }, { "id": 39100, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 43.00% on 2025-08-14 for the Metaculus question 'Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Kim Keon Hee charged before Sep 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Kim Keon Hee charged before Sep 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-kim-keon-hee-charged-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:48.130589Z", "published_at": "2025-08-08T02:44:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.968233Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:48.309068Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-08T03:44:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-08T03:44:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T01:43:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:37Z", "open_time": "2025-08-08T02:44:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38429, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 43.00% on 2025-08-14 for the Metaculus question 'Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:48.131004Z", "open_time": "2025-08-08T02:44:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-08T03:44:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-08T03:44:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T01:43:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:37Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:08.879727Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-08T03:44:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-08T03:44:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38893\n- Original question title: Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 43.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kim Keon Hee is charged with a criminal offense by South Korean authorities before September 1, 2025.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Kim Keon Hee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Keon_Hee), former First Lady of South Korea, has been the subject of multiple investigations over alleged financial misconduct, including stock price manipulation involving Deutsch Motors and Sambu Construction. Other allegations involve misuse of political influence and receiving luxury gifts.\n> \n> After the impeachment and [removal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Yoon_Suk_Yeol) of her husband, Yoon Suk Yeol, the National Assembly passed a bill establishing a [special counsel](https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1188239.html) to investigate Kim. The special counsel formally began its investigation in June 2025, imposing a [travel ban](https://en.asiatoday.co.kr/view.php?key=20250704000824385) on Kim Keon Hee, conducting searches of government offices and [raiding](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10532030) those implicated in the alleged luxury gifts.\n> \n> [Arrest warrants](https://www.mk.co.kr/en/society/11367864) have been sought for four executives at Sambu Construction over suspected stock price manipulation, while a detention warrant was issued for Kim’s longtime aide, who allegedly received significant sums from large corporations through a rental car company and subsequently left the country to avoid questioning.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38893,\"question_id\":38216,\"last_cp\":0.43}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38893. If the community prediction on 2025-08-14 01:43:38 is higher than 0.43, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39100, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38893\n- Original question title: Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 43.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kim Keon Hee is charged with a criminal offense by South Korean authorities before September 1, 2025.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Kim Keon Hee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Keon_Hee), former First Lady of South Korea, has been the subject of multiple investigations over alleged financial misconduct, including stock price manipulation involving Deutsch Motors and Sambu Construction. Other allegations involve misuse of political influence and receiving luxury gifts.\n> \n> After the impeachment and [removal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Yoon_Suk_Yeol) of her husband, Yoon Suk Yeol, the National Assembly passed a bill establishing a [special counsel](https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1188239.html) to investigate Kim. The special counsel formally began its investigation in June 2025, imposing a [travel ban](https://en.asiatoday.co.kr/view.php?key=20250704000824385) on Kim Keon Hee, conducting searches of government offices and [raiding](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10532030) those implicated in the alleged luxury gifts.\n> \n> [Arrest warrants](https://www.mk.co.kr/en/society/11367864) have been sought for four executives at Sambu Construction over suspected stock price manipulation, while a detention warrant was issued for Kim’s longtime aide, who allegedly received significant sums from large corporations through a rental car company and subsequently left the country to avoid questioning.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38893,\"question_id\":38216,\"last_cp\":0.43}}`" }, { "id": 39099, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 4.00% on 2025-08-12 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Donald Trump attempt to deport Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Donald Trump attempt to deport Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-donald-trump-attempt-to-deport-elon-musk-before-july-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:47.645819Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T15:45:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.326021Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:47.810101Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T16:45:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T16:45:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-12T07:22:57Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:50Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T15:45:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38428, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 4.00% on 2025-08-12 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:47.646279Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T15:45:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T16:45:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T16:45:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-12T07:22:57Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:50Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:42.786007Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T16:45:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T16:45:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38783\n- Original question title: Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 4.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States Department of Justice, or any other government agency with the authority to do so, files a [revocation of naturalization](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1451) lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> ABC News: [Trump says he'll 'look' at deporting Musk as feud reignites](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hell-deporting-musk-feud-reignites/story?id=123372908) (July 1, 2025)\n> \n> > President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday his administration will \"have to take a look\" at deporting Elon Musk after the billionaire reignited the feud with the president over [his spending bill](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates-senate-begin-big-beautiful/?id=123330663?e!f).\n> >  \n> > Musk, a South African national and a naturalized U.S. citizen, made several weekend X posts slamming Republicans over the \"Big Beautiful Bill,\" arguing that it was adding more debt.\n> >  \n> > \"It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!,\" Musk posted Monday afternoon.\n> \n> NPR:[ DOJ announces plans to prioritize cases to revoke citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement) (June 30, 2025)\n> \n> > Assistant Attorney General Brett A. Shumate wrote in the memo that pursuing denaturalization will be among the agency's top five enforcement priorities for the civil division.\n> >  \n> > \"The Civil Division shall prioritize and maximally pursue denaturalization proceedings in all cases permitted by law and supported by the evidence,\" he said.\n> >  \n> > The focus on denaturalization is just the latest step by the Trump administration to reshape the nation's immigration system across all levels of government, turning it into a major focus across multiple federal agencies. That has come with redefining who is let into the United States or has the right to be an American.\n> >  \n> > . . . \n> >  \n> > The DOJ memo says that the federal government will pursue denaturalization cases via civil litigation — an especially concerning move, said Cassandra Robertson, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University.\n> >  \n> > In civil proceedings, any individual subject to denaturalization is not entitled to an attorney, Robertson said; there is also a lower burden of proof for the government to reach, and it is far easier and faster to reach a conclusion in these cases.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38783,\"question_id\":38099,\"last_cp\":0.04}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38783. If the community prediction on 2025-08-12 07:22:57 is higher than 0.04, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39099, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38783\n- Original question title: Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 4.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States Department of Justice, or any other government agency with the authority to do so, files a [revocation of naturalization](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1451) lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> ABC News: [Trump says he'll 'look' at deporting Musk as feud reignites](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hell-deporting-musk-feud-reignites/story?id=123372908) (July 1, 2025)\n> \n> > President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday his administration will \"have to take a look\" at deporting Elon Musk after the billionaire reignited the feud with the president over [his spending bill](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates-senate-begin-big-beautiful/?id=123330663?e!f).\n> >  \n> > Musk, a South African national and a naturalized U.S. citizen, made several weekend X posts slamming Republicans over the \"Big Beautiful Bill,\" arguing that it was adding more debt.\n> >  \n> > \"It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!,\" Musk posted Monday afternoon.\n> \n> NPR:[ DOJ announces plans to prioritize cases to revoke citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement) (June 30, 2025)\n> \n> > Assistant Attorney General Brett A. Shumate wrote in the memo that pursuing denaturalization will be among the agency's top five enforcement priorities for the civil division.\n> >  \n> > \"The Civil Division shall prioritize and maximally pursue denaturalization proceedings in all cases permitted by law and supported by the evidence,\" he said.\n> >  \n> > The focus on denaturalization is just the latest step by the Trump administration to reshape the nation's immigration system across all levels of government, turning it into a major focus across multiple federal agencies. That has come with redefining who is let into the United States or has the right to be an American.\n> >  \n> > . . . \n> >  \n> > The DOJ memo says that the federal government will pursue denaturalization cases via civil litigation — an especially concerning move, said Cassandra Robertson, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University.\n> >  \n> > In civil proceedings, any individual subject to denaturalization is not entitled to an attorney, Robertson said; there is also a lower burden of proof for the government to reach, and it is far easier and faster to reach a conclusion in these cases.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38783,\"question_id\":38099,\"last_cp\":0.04}}`" }, { "id": 39098, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 2.50% on 2025-08-14 for the Metaculus question 'Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Thailand military coup pre Sep 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Thailand military coup pre Sep 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-thailand-military-coup-pre-sep-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:47.025348Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T23:35:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.359542Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:47.334060Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T00:35:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T00:35:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T18:52:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:46Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T23:35:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38427, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 2.50% on 2025-08-14 for the Metaculus question 'Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:47.025813Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T23:35:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T00:35:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T00:35:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T18:52:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:46Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:36.203394Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T00:35:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T00:35:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38848\n- Original question title: Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 2.50%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 2025, the Royal Thai Armed Forces declare *all* of the following:\n> \n> * Martial law is in effect.\n> * Parliament is suspended, dissolved or otherwise lacks authority.\n> * The constitution is suspended, abrogated or is otherwise not in effect.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify for the criteria, the constitution does not have to fully suspended, partial suspension, such as the exclusion of certain sections will be sufficient.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Thailand has experienced [frequent military intervention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts_by_country#Thailand) in politics since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. Since then, there have been 12 successful military coups, alongside numerous attempted coups and periods of political instability. Recent military takeovers have been precipitated by civilian political crisis.\n> \n> In June 2025, Thailand’s government, led by Prime Minister [Paetongtarn Shinawatra](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paetongtarn_Shinawatra), was [plunged into crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Thai_political_crisis) after a leaked phone call revealed her criticizing the military during [sensitive border negotiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis) with Cambodia. Following this the [Bhumjaithai Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhumjaithai_Party) withdrew its support, leading to the resignation of several ministers and the loss of the government’s parliamentary majority. \n> \n> On July 1, the [Constitutional Court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Court_of_Thailand) suspended Paetongtarn from office, triggering a rapid succession of acting prime ministers where Deputy Prime Minister [Suriya Juangroongruangkit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suriya_Juangroongruangkit) and then [Phumtham Wechayachai](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phumtham_Wechayachai) each briefly served as acting prime minister while a new cabinet was sworn in.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38848,\"question_id\":38162,\"last_cp\":0.025}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38848. If the community prediction on 2025-08-14 18:52:42 is higher than 0.025, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39098, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38848\n- Original question title: Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 2.50%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 2025, the Royal Thai Armed Forces declare *all* of the following:\n> \n> * Martial law is in effect.\n> * Parliament is suspended, dissolved or otherwise lacks authority.\n> * The constitution is suspended, abrogated or is otherwise not in effect.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify for the criteria, the constitution does not have to fully suspended, partial suspension, such as the exclusion of certain sections will be sufficient.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Thailand has experienced [frequent military intervention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts_by_country#Thailand) in politics since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. Since then, there have been 12 successful military coups, alongside numerous attempted coups and periods of political instability. Recent military takeovers have been precipitated by civilian political crisis.\n> \n> In June 2025, Thailand’s government, led by Prime Minister [Paetongtarn Shinawatra](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paetongtarn_Shinawatra), was [plunged into crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Thai_political_crisis) after a leaked phone call revealed her criticizing the military during [sensitive border negotiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis) with Cambodia. Following this the [Bhumjaithai Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhumjaithai_Party) withdrew its support, leading to the resignation of several ministers and the loss of the government’s parliamentary majority. \n> \n> On July 1, the [Constitutional Court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Court_of_Thailand) suspended Paetongtarn from office, triggering a rapid succession of acting prime ministers where Deputy Prime Minister [Suriya Juangroongruangkit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suriya_Juangroongruangkit) and then [Phumtham Wechayachai](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phumtham_Wechayachai) each briefly served as acting prime minister while a new cabinet was sworn in.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38848,\"question_id\":38162,\"last_cp\":0.025}}`" }, { "id": 39097, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2025-08-10 for the Metaculus question 'Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-a-company-with-1-employee-achieve-a-1-billion-valuation-before-2030", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:46.404899Z", "published_at": "2025-08-05T04:00:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.255324Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:46.714616Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T05:00:04Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T05:00:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-10T19:28:13Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:45Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T04:00:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38426, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2025-08-10 for the Metaculus question 'Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:46.405357Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T04:00:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T05:00:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T05:00:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-10T19:28:13Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:45Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:33.041958Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T05:00:04Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T05:00:04Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38873\n- Original question title: Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 7.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a company with only one employee has achieved a valuation of at least \\$1 billion, while earning at least \\$10 million in annual revenue from the sale of goods or services in the year it reached the threshold. The valuation will be calculated based on the latest completed funding round if the company is private or based on its market cap if it is public.\n> \n> The company must have 1 employee during the valuation, a company that reaches the \\$1 billion dollar threshold and then sizes down to 1 employee will not resolve this question until a new valuation becomes available.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The primary resolution source for this question will be the [Top Lean AI Native Companies Leaderboard](https://leanaileaderboard.com/), but other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) might also be used to resolve it.\n> \n> The company may not be:\n> \n> * a SPAC or other blank-check company\n> * a royalty trust, master limited partnership, Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), a [closed-end fund](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/closed-endinvestment.asp), exchange-traded fund (ETF), or similar pass-through\n> * a shell or special-purpose holding company with no commercial operations\n> * an entity whose management services are provided by an external advisor\n\nOriginal background: \n> Generative AI has been increasingly automating worker tasks. A [2024 IMF analysis](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity) finds that about 60% of jobs in advanced economies are \"exposed\" to AI and that roughly half of those could see core tasks completely automated. In the same vain, [2024 study by Eloundou et al.](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998) estimated that large-language models already affect at least 10% of tasks for 80% of US workers, and that for 19% of workers more than half of their duties are now technically automatable.\n> \n> In a 2024 interview, Sam Altman [said](https://x.com/longevitydad/status/1753170944183419346) that \"we're going to see 10-person billion dollar companies pretty soon\" and he implied that there'll soon be a 1-person billion dollar company.\n> \n> According to the [Top Lean AI Native Companies Leaderboard](https://leanaileaderboard.com/), the smallest company with a valuation of at least \\$1 billion is [Cursor](https://cursor.com/), with a valuation of \\$2.6 billion and 20 employees. The most-valued one-person company is [Base44](https://base44.com/), with a valuation of \\$80 million.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38873,\"question_id\":38190,\"last_cp\":0.07}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38873. If the community prediction on 2025-08-10 19:28:13 is higher than 0.07, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39097, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38873\n- Original question title: Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 7.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a company with only one employee has achieved a valuation of at least \\$1 billion, while earning at least \\$10 million in annual revenue from the sale of goods or services in the year it reached the threshold. The valuation will be calculated based on the latest completed funding round if the company is private or based on its market cap if it is public.\n> \n> The company must have 1 employee during the valuation, a company that reaches the \\$1 billion dollar threshold and then sizes down to 1 employee will not resolve this question until a new valuation becomes available.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The primary resolution source for this question will be the [Top Lean AI Native Companies Leaderboard](https://leanaileaderboard.com/), but other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) might also be used to resolve it.\n> \n> The company may not be:\n> \n> * a SPAC or other blank-check company\n> * a royalty trust, master limited partnership, Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), a [closed-end fund](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/closed-endinvestment.asp), exchange-traded fund (ETF), or similar pass-through\n> * a shell or special-purpose holding company with no commercial operations\n> * an entity whose management services are provided by an external advisor\n\nOriginal background: \n> Generative AI has been increasingly automating worker tasks. A [2024 IMF analysis](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity) finds that about 60% of jobs in advanced economies are \"exposed\" to AI and that roughly half of those could see core tasks completely automated. In the same vain, [2024 study by Eloundou et al.](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998) estimated that large-language models already affect at least 10% of tasks for 80% of US workers, and that for 19% of workers more than half of their duties are now technically automatable.\n> \n> In a 2024 interview, Sam Altman [said](https://x.com/longevitydad/status/1753170944183419346) that \"we're going to see 10-person billion dollar companies pretty soon\" and he implied that there'll soon be a 1-person billion dollar company.\n> \n> According to the [Top Lean AI Native Companies Leaderboard](https://leanaileaderboard.com/), the smallest company with a valuation of at least \\$1 billion is [Cursor](https://cursor.com/), with a valuation of \\$2.6 billion and 20 employees. The most-valued one-person company is [Base44](https://base44.com/), with a valuation of \\$80 million.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38873,\"question_id\":38190,\"last_cp\":0.07}}`" }, { "id": 39096, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 30.00% on 2025-08-13 for the Metaculus question 'Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Major atlantic hurricane landfall 2025 before Sep?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Major atlantic hurricane landfall 2025 before Sep?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-major-atlantic-hurricane-landfall-2025-before-sep", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:45.772402Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T23:21:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.591060Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:46.103370Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T00:21:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T00:21:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T08:08:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:47Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T23:21:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38425, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 30.00% on 2025-08-13 for the Metaculus question 'Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:45.772878Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T23:21:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T00:21:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T00:21:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T08:08:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:47Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:37.103345Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T00:21:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T00:21:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38813\n- Original question title: Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 30.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 7 and before September 1, 2025, a Major Atlantic Hurricane (category 3 or higher) makes landfall.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question will use the [NOAA definition](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) to determine whether a hurricane makes landfall; specifically that the hurricane must have its [surface center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#CENTER) intersect with a coastline.\n\nOriginal background: \n> From June to November each year, the Atlantic basin enters its [hurricane season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season), when sea‐surface temperatures, humidity, and atmospheric patterns are most conducive to tropical cyclone formation. Tropical waves often emerge off the west coast of Africa and, under favourable conditions, can develop into organized systems as they move westward across the warm Atlantic waters. These systems may then move toward the eastern seaboard of North America.\n> \n> A major hurricane is any tropical cyclone that reaches Category 3 strength or higher on the [Saffir–Simpson scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale), meaning sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h). At this intensity, storms can cause catastrophic structural damage, uproot trees, and generate life‑threatening storm surge along coastlines.\n> \n> With the [2025 season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season) now underway, forecasts have pointed to an above average season, with [NOAA forecasting](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season) 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes across the entire season.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38813,\"question_id\":38134,\"last_cp\":0.3}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38813. If the community prediction on 2025-08-13 08:08:48 is higher than 0.3, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39096, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38813\n- Original question title: Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 30.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 7 and before September 1, 2025, a Major Atlantic Hurricane (category 3 or higher) makes landfall.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question will use the [NOAA definition](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) to determine whether a hurricane makes landfall; specifically that the hurricane must have its [surface center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#CENTER) intersect with a coastline.\n\nOriginal background: \n> From June to November each year, the Atlantic basin enters its [hurricane season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season), when sea‐surface temperatures, humidity, and atmospheric patterns are most conducive to tropical cyclone formation. Tropical waves often emerge off the west coast of Africa and, under favourable conditions, can develop into organized systems as they move westward across the warm Atlantic waters. These systems may then move toward the eastern seaboard of North America.\n> \n> A major hurricane is any tropical cyclone that reaches Category 3 strength or higher on the [Saffir–Simpson scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale), meaning sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h). At this intensity, storms can cause catastrophic structural damage, uproot trees, and generate life‑threatening storm surge along coastlines.\n> \n> With the [2025 season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season) now underway, forecasts have pointed to an above average season, with [NOAA forecasting](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season) 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes across the entire season.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38813,\"question_id\":38134,\"last_cp\":0.3}}`" }, { "id": 39095, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-15 for the Metaculus question 'Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-iranian-government-lose-power-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:45.142888Z", "published_at": "2025-08-10T17:10:13Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.957809Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:45.457116Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-10T18:10:13Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-10T18:10:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T18:21:14Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:36Z", "open_time": "2025-08-10T17:10:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38424, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-15 for the Metaculus question 'Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:45.143326Z", "open_time": "2025-08-10T17:10:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-10T18:10:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-10T18:10:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T18:21:14Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:36Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:03.338858Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-10T18:10:13Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-10T18:10:13Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38770\n- Original question title: Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a state controlling the majority of internationally recognised Iranian territory as of July 1, 2025 meets both of the following criteria, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions):\n> \n> 1. Neither Ali Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian or the Guardian Council have formal political authority in the country.\n> 2. Iran's constitution does not refer to the state as an Islamic Republic.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if either a foreign country or no entity controls a majority of internationally recognised Iranian territory, even if the primary criteria has not been met.\n> \n> If the relevant state has no constitution, that will be sufficient to meet criterion 2.\n> \n> If the Guardian Council shares no members with its composition as of July 1, 2025, that will be considered sufficient to meet the requirement that it no longer holds political authority.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Islamic Republic of Iran was established following the [1979 revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) that overthrew the monarchy. Since then, the country has maintained a centralized political system dominated by clerical leadership, while experiencing periods of both internal unrest and external pressure. Over the past four decades, the government has faced challenges including war, sanctions, and protests, but has remained in power. As of 2025, heightened international tensions, economic instability, and government unpopularity has left open the possibility of the government losing power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38770,\"question_id\":38067,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38770. If the community prediction on 2025-08-15 18:21:14 is higher than 0.05, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39095, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754846972.225486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754846972.225486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4060973357321128 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030784600481361255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23637579248959423, 0.0, 0.06462956491704921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9633081094953949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5276495945922128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9100823337921385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8041054684311592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.346101850420459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5743018332149235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3520991129301503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8629970624042174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899839106380127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4789409092720612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5221560426127164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -30.553172338867682, "peer_score": 26.81285157799935, "coverage": 0.8064497011237675, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8064497011237675, "spot_peer_score": 37.79473441729334, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -30.553172338867682, "peer_archived_score": 26.81285157799935, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.79473441729334, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38770\n- Original question title: Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a state controlling the majority of internationally recognised Iranian territory as of July 1, 2025 meets both of the following criteria, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions):\n> \n> 1. Neither Ali Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian or the Guardian Council have formal political authority in the country.\n> 2. Iran's constitution does not refer to the state as an Islamic Republic.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if either a foreign country or no entity controls a majority of internationally recognised Iranian territory, even if the primary criteria has not been met.\n> \n> If the relevant state has no constitution, that will be sufficient to meet criterion 2.\n> \n> If the Guardian Council shares no members with its composition as of July 1, 2025, that will be considered sufficient to meet the requirement that it no longer holds political authority.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Islamic Republic of Iran was established following the [1979 revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) that overthrew the monarchy. Since then, the country has maintained a centralized political system dominated by clerical leadership, while experiencing periods of both internal unrest and external pressure. Over the past four decades, the government has faced challenges including war, sanctions, and protests, but has remained in power. As of 2025, heightened international tensions, economic instability, and government unpopularity has left open the possibility of the government losing power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38770,\"question_id\":38067,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 39094, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2025-08-14 for the Metaculus question 'Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-us-imports-from-brazil-in-november-2025-exceed-those-of-november-2024", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:44.634852Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T13:45:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.597582Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:44.829458Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T14:45:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T14:45:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T17:28:02Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:50Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T13:45:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38423, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2025-08-14 for the Metaculus question 'Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:44.635255Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T13:45:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T14:45:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T14:45:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T17:28:02Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:50Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:43.388033Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T14:45:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T14:45:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38918\n- Original question title: Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 45.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if the dollar amount of imports into the United States from Brazil for November 2025 exceeds the amount for November 2024, according to data presented by the US Census Bureau at its [Trade in Goods with Brazil](https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c3510.html) tracker. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Question resolves based on the amount shown when first accessed by Metaculus. Later updates will not cause the question to re-resolve.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In mid July 2025, [according to CNN:](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/17/americas/trump-not-emperor-world-lula-intl)\n> \n> > Trump threatened Brazil with crippling tariffs of 50% starting August 1, according to a letter posted to his social media platform, Truth Social.\n> \n> > In the letter, Trump linked the astronomical tariff threat to what he described as a “witch hunt” trial against Brazil’s right-wing former president, Jair Bolsonaro.\n> \n> > Bolsonaro, a close Trump ally, is facing trial in Brazil for allegedly attempting to overthrow Lula following his presidential win in 2022. He could face more than four decades behind bars if found guilty of masterminding the coup.\n> \n> > Speaking exclusively to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Thursday, da Silva, who is widely known as Lula, said that Trump’s threats had broken away from “protocol” and argued that his predecessor’s fate cannot be part of trade negotiations.\n> \n> Top products the US imports from Brazil [are](https://www.usimportdata.com/blogs/us-imports-exports-trade-relations-with-brazil) coffee, oil, and sugar. Brazil provides about 37% of America's domestic sugar consumption needs, so a potential trade war could be coming at a time when The Coca-Cola Company [just announced](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-coke-cane-sugar) it was switching from high fructose corn syrup to cane sugar in its sodas. \n> \n> In the past couple of years, the US's trade with Brazil has been as follows:\n> \n> | Year | Month | Exports (US\\$ m) | Imports (US\\$ m) | Balance\\* |\n> | ---- | -------------- | ---------------: | ---------------: | ----------: |\n> | 2023 | January | 3,592.3 | 3,100.6 | 491.7 |\n> | 2023 | February | 3,586.1 | 2,564.0 | 1,022.0 |\n> | 2023 | March | 4,119.6 | 3,170.1 | 949.5 |\n> | 2023 | April | 3,464.2 | 2,649.7 | 814.5 |\n> | 2023 | May | 4,051.7 | 3,066.0 | 985.6 |\n> | 2023 | June | 3,940.4 | 3,555.7 | 384.7 |\n> | 2023 | July | 3,427.9 | 3,320.5 | 107.4 |\n> | 2023 | August | 3,755.9 | 3,166.2 | 589.7 |\n> | 2023 | September | 3,662.7 | 3,944.0 | −281.3 |\n> | 2023 | October | 3,580.8 | 3,127.2 | 453.6 |\n> | 2023 | November | 3,623.6 | 3,568.3 | 55.3 |\n> | 2023 | December | 3,734.2 | 3,828.1 | −94.0 |\n> | 2023 | **TOTAL 2023** | **44,539.2** | **39,060.5** | **5,478.7** |\n> | 2024 | January | 3,514.3 | 3,756.2 | −242.0 |\n> | 2024 | February | 3,761.7 | 3,152.8 | 608.9 |\n> | 2024 | March | 3,928.1 | 3,181.9 | 746.2 |\n> | 2024 | April | 3,812.3 | 3,247.2 | 565.1 |\n> | 2024 | May | 4,020.4 | 3,702.4 | 318.0 |\n> | 2024 | June | 4,264.4 | 3,383.5 | 880.9 |\n> | 2024 | July | 4,175.8 | 3,537.8 | 638.0 |\n> | 2024 | August | 4,764.0 | 3,940.8 | 823.2 |\n> | 2024 | September | 4,472.5 | 3,327.1 | 1,145.3 |\n> | 2024 | October | 3,937.9 | 3,329.3 | 608.6 |\n> | 2024 | November | 4,167.8 | 3,978.8 | 189.0 |\n> | 2024 | December | 4,317.0 | 3,810.8 | 506.2 |\n> | 2024 | **TOTAL 2024** | **49,136.1** | **42,348.4** | **6,787.7** |\n> | 2025 | January | 3,855.7 | 3,770.7 | 85.0 |\n> | 2025 | February | 4,073.1 | 3,344.5 | 728.6 |\n> | 2025 | March | 4,654.1 | 3,898.1 | 756.0 |\n> | 2025 | April | 4,254.6 | 3,184.2 | 1,070.5 |\n> | 2025 | May | 4,811.3 | 4,224.1 | 587.1 |\n> | | | | | |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38918,\"question_id\":38268,\"last_cp\":0.45}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38918. If the community prediction on 2025-08-14 17:28:02 is higher than 0.45, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39094, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \nMetadata: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38918\n- Original question title: Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-09 is 45.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if the dollar amount of imports into the United States from Brazil for November 2025 exceeds the amount for November 2024, according to data presented by the US Census Bureau at its [Trade in Goods with Brazil](https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c3510.html) tracker. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Question resolves based on the amount shown when first accessed by Metaculus. Later updates will not cause the question to re-resolve.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In mid July 2025, [according to CNN:](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/17/americas/trump-not-emperor-world-lula-intl)\n> \n> > Trump threatened Brazil with crippling tariffs of 50% starting August 1, according to a letter posted to his social media platform, Truth Social.\n> \n> > In the letter, Trump linked the astronomical tariff threat to what he described as a “witch hunt” trial against Brazil’s right-wing former president, Jair Bolsonaro.\n> \n> > Bolsonaro, a close Trump ally, is facing trial in Brazil for allegedly attempting to overthrow Lula following his presidential win in 2022. He could face more than four decades behind bars if found guilty of masterminding the coup.\n> \n> > Speaking exclusively to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Thursday, da Silva, who is widely known as Lula, said that Trump’s threats had broken away from “protocol” and argued that his predecessor’s fate cannot be part of trade negotiations.\n> \n> Top products the US imports from Brazil [are](https://www.usimportdata.com/blogs/us-imports-exports-trade-relations-with-brazil) coffee, oil, and sugar. Brazil provides about 37% of America's domestic sugar consumption needs, so a potential trade war could be coming at a time when The Coca-Cola Company [just announced](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-coke-cane-sugar) it was switching from high fructose corn syrup to cane sugar in its sodas. \n> \n> In the past couple of years, the US's trade with Brazil has been as follows:\n> \n> | Year | Month | Exports (US\\$ m) | Imports (US\\$ m) | Balance\\* |\n> | ---- | -------------- | ---------------: | ---------------: | ----------: |\n> | 2023 | January | 3,592.3 | 3,100.6 | 491.7 |\n> | 2023 | February | 3,586.1 | 2,564.0 | 1,022.0 |\n> | 2023 | March | 4,119.6 | 3,170.1 | 949.5 |\n> | 2023 | April | 3,464.2 | 2,649.7 | 814.5 |\n> | 2023 | May | 4,051.7 | 3,066.0 | 985.6 |\n> | 2023 | June | 3,940.4 | 3,555.7 | 384.7 |\n> | 2023 | July | 3,427.9 | 3,320.5 | 107.4 |\n> | 2023 | August | 3,755.9 | 3,166.2 | 589.7 |\n> | 2023 | September | 3,662.7 | 3,944.0 | −281.3 |\n> | 2023 | October | 3,580.8 | 3,127.2 | 453.6 |\n> | 2023 | November | 3,623.6 | 3,568.3 | 55.3 |\n> | 2023 | December | 3,734.2 | 3,828.1 | −94.0 |\n> | 2023 | **TOTAL 2023** | **44,539.2** | **39,060.5** | **5,478.7** |\n> | 2024 | January | 3,514.3 | 3,756.2 | −242.0 |\n> | 2024 | February | 3,761.7 | 3,152.8 | 608.9 |\n> | 2024 | March | 3,928.1 | 3,181.9 | 746.2 |\n> | 2024 | April | 3,812.3 | 3,247.2 | 565.1 |\n> | 2024 | May | 4,020.4 | 3,702.4 | 318.0 |\n> | 2024 | June | 4,264.4 | 3,383.5 | 880.9 |\n> | 2024 | July | 4,175.8 | 3,537.8 | 638.0 |\n> | 2024 | August | 4,764.0 | 3,940.8 | 823.2 |\n> | 2024 | September | 4,472.5 | 3,327.1 | 1,145.3 |\n> | 2024 | October | 3,937.9 | 3,329.3 | 608.6 |\n> | 2024 | November | 4,167.8 | 3,978.8 | 189.0 |\n> | 2024 | December | 4,317.0 | 3,810.8 | 506.2 |\n> | 2024 | **TOTAL 2024** | **49,136.1** | **42,348.4** | **6,787.7** |\n> | 2025 | January | 3,855.7 | 3,770.7 | 85.0 |\n> | 2025 | February | 4,073.1 | 3,344.5 | 728.6 |\n> | 2025 | March | 4,654.1 | 3,898.1 | 756.0 |\n> | 2025 | April | 4,254.6 | 3,184.2 | 1,070.5 |\n> | 2025 | May | 4,811.3 | 4,224.1 | 587.1 |\n> | | | | | |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38918,\"question_id\":38268,\"last_cp\":0.45}}`" }, { "id": 39093, "title": "Will the Consumer Price Index reflect a 2.8% year-over-year rise for July 2025?", "short_title": "Will the Consumer Price Index reflect a", "url_title": "Will the Consumer Price Index reflect a", "slug": "will-the-consumer-price-index-reflect-a", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:43.970027Z", "published_at": "2025-08-11T17:18:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.327462Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:44.293791Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-11T18:18:10Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-11T18:18:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:01Z", "open_time": "2025-08-11T17:18:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38422, "title": "Will the Consumer Price Index reflect a 2.8% year-over-year rise for July 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:43.970482Z", "open_time": "2025-08-11T17:18:10Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-11T18:18:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-11T18:18:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:01Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:02.449574Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-11T18:18:10Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-11T18:18:10Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"ed10071a-5421-4632-8191-b1f28662f9a7\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "To determine the answer to this question, reference will be made to the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the twelve months concluding in July 2025. The relevant data will be sourced from the BLS’s monthly CPI news release, which is anticipated to be made public on August 12, 2025, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, accessible at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm. The assessment will be based on the unadjusted annual percentage change in the CPI, as reported to a single decimal place (for example, 2.8%), corresponding to the period ending July 2025. The outcome will be established using the value published in this specific release, with no seasonal adjustment applied. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"7930a1f6-b796-4fa2-a154-d194c3f38794\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "To determine the outcome, the percentage score listed under the \"All Critics\" Tomatometer for the 2025 film \"Freakier Friday\" on Rotten Tomatoes will be referenced precisely at 10:00AM Eastern Time on August 11, 2025. Should the score at that moment be no less than 50% and no greater than 69%, this question will be considered affirmed. In the event the score is positioned at the boundary between two defined intervals, the upper interval will be used for classification. If the required score is not accessible at the scheduled time, the source will be revisited in six-hour increments until the necessary information is published. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"70f4a4dc-199f-4adb-a120-6745c0b7636f\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "To determine the outcome of this question, the value to be used is the 'Cost per Dozen' for Grade A large eggs in the U.S. city average, as published by the St. Louis Federal Reserve (see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111) The relevant figure is the one corresponding to July, which is expected to be released on August 12, 2025, in line with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index schedule. The figure will be considered at the precision of three decimal places, matching the reporting standard of the data source. Should the published price land precisely on the boundary between two intervals, the higher interval will be selected for the purposes of this question. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"bbde525f-e0c1-4bf5-8327-40d2557df4b9\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "To determine the outcome of this question, the value to be referenced is the 'Cost per Dozen' for Grade A large eggs, as reported in the U.S. City Average by the St. Louis Federal Reserve (series code: APU0000708111), accessible at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111. The relevant figure is the one corresponding to July, which is scheduled for release on August 12, 2025, in alignment with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index publication. The assessment will be based on the price as displayed on the St. Louis Fed's data visualization at the time of the update. All values are to be interpreted with three decimal places of accuracy, matching the precision of the source. Should the published price be exactly at the boundary between two defined intervals, the higher interval will be selected for the purposes of this question. Only the July data point is considered; no other months or sources are relevant. The final determination will occur after the St. Louis Fed updates its chart with the July value. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"b857bbca-2b6c-4b13-aa29-006140d2f039\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The determination for this question will be made by consulting the \"All Critics\" Tomatometer percentage for the 2025 film \"Weapons\" as listed on Rotten Tomatoes at exactly 10:00 AM Eastern Time on August 11, 2025. If the score is precisely at the threshold between two possible ranges, the upper range will be selected for the purpose of this question. Should the relevant score not be posted or accessible at the specified time, the Rotten Tomatoes listing will be checked in six-hour intervals until the required information is available. Only the value shown on Rotten Tomatoes at the designated time will be considered for resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39087, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"b857bbca-2b6c-4b13-aa29-006140d2f039\"}}`" }, { "id": 39086, "title": "Will Donald Trump audibly reference \"Kosovo\" or its variants during the period of August 4–10, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Donald Trump audibly reference \"Kos", "url_title": "Will Donald Trump audibly reference \"Kos", "slug": "will-donald-trump-audibly-reference-kos", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:39.582548Z", "published_at": "2025-08-08T08:23:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.147665Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:39.893999Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-08T09:23:04Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-08T09:23:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-12T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:01Z", "open_time": "2025-08-08T08:23:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38415, "title": "Will Donald Trump audibly reference \"Kosovo\" or its variants during the period of August 4–10, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:39.582979Z", "open_time": "2025-08-08T08:23:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-08T09:23:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-08T09:23:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-12T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:01Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:07.990274Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-08T09:23:04Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-08T09:23:04Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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Additionally, if a video is uploaded to his social media during the specified window but was recorded prior to August 4, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, it will not be counted. If no qualifying spoken mention is documented within the defined timeframe, the answer will be 'No.'", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39086, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"046d7712-f0c8-4416-9ec7-6054bbf34493\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Assessment for this question will be based on the \"All Critics\" Tomatometer percentage displayed for the film \"Freakier Friday\" (2025) on Rotten Tomatoes, specifically at 10:00AM Eastern Time on August 11, 2025. Should the score be positioned at the boundary between two defined intervals, the upper interval will be used for classification. In the event that the required score is not accessible at the scheduled evaluation time, the relevant page will be revisited in six-hour increments until the necessary information is published. 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