Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2000
{ "count": 5957, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2020", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1980", "results": [ { "id": 38377, "title": "Will there be a disruption in the Social Area by 2075 that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decline of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-disruption-in-the-social-area-by-2075-that-will-cause-the-death-of-more-than-100000-czechs-within-five-years-of-its-occurrence-or-cause-the-growthdecline-of-the-czech-republics-gdp-by-more-than-25-in-one-year", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-11T18:20:34.444813Z", "published_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.588414Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 37651, "title": "Will there be a disruption in the Social Area by 2075 that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decline of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year?", "created_at": "2024-10-11T18:20:34.444813Z", "open_time": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-12T18:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-12T18:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, if a new ideological trend spreads in the Czech Republic within a short period of time and begins to aggressively eliminate its opponents, citizens of the Czech Republic.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. A relatively well-studied example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans.", "resolution_criteria": "Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, if a new ideological trend spreads in the Czech Republic within a short period of time and begins to aggressively eliminate its opponents, citizens of the Czech Republic.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38377, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729503508.678521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729503508.678521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.17241649440408885 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0323361294005466, 0.23128568172579037, 0.08508524734423982, 0.9916317514889486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 1.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, if a new ideological trend spreads in the Czech Republic within a short period of time and begins to aggressively eliminate its opponents, citizens of the Czech Republic.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. A relatively well-studied example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans." }, { "id": 38375, "title": "Will there be a disruption in the Technological Area by 2075 that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decline of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-disruption-in-the-technological-area-by-2075-that-will-cause-the-death-of-more-than-100000-czechs-within-five-years-of-its-occurrence-or-cause-the-growthdecline-of-the-czech-republics-gdp-by-more-than-25-in-one-year", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-11T18:17:30.090415Z", "published_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.264013Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 37648, "title": "Will there be a disruption in the Technological Area by 2075 that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decline of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year?", "created_at": "2024-10-11T18:17:30.090415Z", "open_time": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-12T18:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-12T18:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, if artificial intelligence-based technology in the Czech Republic began to actively resist human commands, which would have impacts on both the economy and security.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. An already relatively well-researched example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans.", "resolution_criteria": "Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, if artificial intelligence-based technology in the Czech Republic began to actively resist human commands, which would have impacts on both the economy and security.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38375, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729499536.765615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.225 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729499536.765615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.14412251690732064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3423356305559753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 1.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, if artificial intelligence-based technology in the Czech Republic began to actively resist human commands, which would have impacts on both the economy and security.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. An already relatively well-researched example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans." }, { "id": 38374, "title": "Will there be a disruption in the Environmental Area by 2075 that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decrease of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-disruption-in-the-environmental-area-by-2075-that-will-cause-the-death-of-more-than-100000-czechs-within-five-years-of-its-occurrence-or-cause-the-growthdecrease-of-the-czech-republics-gdp-by-more-than-25-in-one-year", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-11T18:13:27.010185Z", "published_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.119427Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 37655, "title": "Will there be a disruption in the Environmental Area by 2075 that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decline of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one 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"group_rank": null, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, in the case of an asteroid impact in the Czech Republic that would kill a significant part of the Czech population.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. An example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans.", "resolution_criteria": "Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, in the case of an asteroid impact in the Czech Republic that would kill a significant part of the Czech population.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38374, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729503966.125844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729503966.125844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.1040876161068011 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7157939482071036, 0.5689615615432293, 1.20879348632548, 0.5837483257922826, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4138723464679417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, in the case of an asteroid impact in the Czech Republic that would kill a significant part of the Czech population.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. An example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of 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It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be evaluated positively, for example, if a pandemic spread in the Czech Republic and it was confirmed that 20,000 people had died from the disease, but we know that the statistical excess mortality rate in the given period was many times higher than usual and we have a high proportion of successful tests for the given disease.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. An example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans.", "resolution_criteria": "Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon, and it will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be evaluated positively if a pandemic spread in the Czech Republic and it was confirmed that 20,000 people died from the disease, but we know that the statistical excess mortality in the given period was many times higher than usual and we have a high proportion of successful tests for the given disease.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38372, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729504655.838082, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729504655.838082, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.16701325483422214 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7394682331392083, 0.6549933957141106, 0.29286789626133847, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1769212063177643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be evaluated positively, for example, if a pandemic spread in the Czech Republic and it was confirmed that 20,000 people had died from the disease, but we know that the statistical excess mortality rate in the given period was many times higher than usual and we have a high proportion of successful tests for the given disease.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. An example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021. \n\nFollowing [investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigations_into_the_Eric_Adams_administration) by the FBI and the US attorney for the Southern District of New York into the Adams administration, on the 26th of September 2024, [US vs Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Eric_Adams) was unsealed, which details five separate charges (bribery, 2 counts of solicitation of contributions from foreign nationals, wire fraud, and conspiracy to commit wire fraud) of which a grand jury voted to indict Adams.\n\nEric Adams [was arraigned](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/27/us/eric-adams-nyc-mayor-arraignment/index.html) on the 27th of September 2024 and pleaded not guilty. Adams [has suggested](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-mayor-adams-has-been-indicted-after-corruption-probe-new-york-times-2024-09-26/) that he plans to remain in office whilst fighting the charges, and has rebuffed [calls](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/09/27/congress/nadler-calls-on-adams-to-resign-00181411) from 5 democratic members of congress and dozens of local elected officials to resign. Τhe Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, [has also resisted](https://nypost.com/2024/09/26/us-news/hochul-stops-short-of-telling-eric-adams-to-resign-gives-nyc-mayor-a-few-days-to-think/) calls to remove Adams and House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries [has said](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/jeffries-says-eric-adams-should-not-resign-00182570) that Adams should not resign. \n\nA [Marist College poll](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/eric-adams-resignation-poll-00182509) conducted from September 30 to October 1 of 1,073 registered voters in New York City found that 65% of respondents believed Adams had committed illegal acts and 70% wanted him to resign; if he doesn't, 63% want Hochul to remove him. The governor [has the power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_New_York_City#Removal_from_office) to remove the mayor after hearing his case, and also has the power to suspend the mayor for 30 days whilst deciding whether or not to remove him. There are also procedures to remove the mayor without the governor's involvement, but they have never been used before.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no credible reports or official announcements of the resignation or removal of Eric Adams from the position of the Mayor of New York City before the 1st of January, 2025.", "fine_print": "The suspension of the mayor by the governor is not sufficient to resolve as **Yes**, even if the mayor is suspended at the time of resolution.", "post_id": 28841, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735649490.035658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.997 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735649490.035658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.997 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9947654108799213 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006320132079752626, 0.0021754227014258746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013141707011951615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013873103177286015, 0.0, 0.2050974017457311, 0.010343197244188598, 0.0, 0.06438067353892736, 0.018175126021569836, 0.02035427510390197, 1.1840150723733203, 13.715435417919332 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.50109400965708, "peer_score": 17.600068970250366, "coverage": 0.9999126211622223, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999126211622223, "spot_peer_score": 28.66224471834195, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 87.50109400965708, "peer_archived_score": 17.600068970250366, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.66224471834195, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 367, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021. \n\nFollowing [investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigations_into_the_Eric_Adams_administration) by the FBI and the US attorney for the Southern District of New York into the Adams administration, on the 26th of September 2024, [US vs Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Eric_Adams) was unsealed, which details five separate charges (bribery, 2 counts of solicitation of contributions from foreign nationals, wire fraud, and conspiracy to commit wire fraud) of which a grand jury voted to indict Adams.\n\nEric Adams [was arraigned](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/27/us/eric-adams-nyc-mayor-arraignment/index.html) on the 27th of September 2024 and pleaded not guilty. Adams [has suggested](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-mayor-adams-has-been-indicted-after-corruption-probe-new-york-times-2024-09-26/) that he plans to remain in office whilst fighting the charges, and has rebuffed [calls](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/09/27/congress/nadler-calls-on-adams-to-resign-00181411) from 5 democratic members of congress and dozens of local elected officials to resign. Τhe Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, [has also resisted](https://nypost.com/2024/09/26/us-news/hochul-stops-short-of-telling-eric-adams-to-resign-gives-nyc-mayor-a-few-days-to-think/) calls to remove Adams and House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries [has said](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/jeffries-says-eric-adams-should-not-resign-00182570) that Adams should not resign. \n\nA [Marist College poll](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/eric-adams-resignation-poll-00182509) conducted from September 30 to October 1 of 1,073 registered voters in New York City found that 65% of respondents believed Adams had committed illegal acts and 70% wanted him to resign; if he doesn't, 63% want Hochul to remove him. The governor [has the power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_New_York_City#Removal_from_office) to remove the mayor after hearing his case, and also has the power to suspend the mayor for 30 days whilst deciding whether or not to remove him. There are also procedures to remove the mayor without the governor's involvement, but they have never been used before." }, { "id": 28834, "title": "Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?", "short_title": "2024 World Chess Champion in the first 10 games?", "url_title": "2024 World Chess Champion in the first 10 games?", "slug": "2024-world-chess-champion-in-the-first-10-games", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-11T10:01:01.937380Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T00:15:08.297257Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.548316Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-06T00:15:08.297255Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T13:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T13:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28798, "title": "Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?", "created_at": "2024-10-11T10:01:01.937489Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-10T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-10T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T13:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T20:06:04.024260Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T13:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [World Chess Championship 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) match between the reigning world champion Ding Liren (Rating: 2728 as of 1 Nov 2024) and the challenger Gukesh Dommaraju (Rating: 2783 as of 1 Nov 2024) is set to take place between 25 November and 13 December 2024, in Singapore.\n\nAs of November 1st, 2024, Ding Liren is [23rd in the world](https://2700chess.com/), but was in the top 5 for 6 consecutive years, reaching as high as #2, with his top rating being the 12th highest in the history of chess. He also [used to have](https://en.chessbase.com/post/ding-liren-profile-2024-fide) the longest unbeaten streak of 100 games, until Carsen surpassed it. Gukesh D has his own [set of achievements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gukesh_Dommaraju), being the third-youngest grandmaster in history, the third-youngest to reach a chess rating of 2700, the youngest to reach a rating of 2750, the youngest Candidates Tournament winner and the youngest contender to compete for the World Championship.\n\nThe match will be best of 14 games; a score of at least 7½ would win the world championship. If the score is equal after 14 games, tiebreak games with faster time controls will be played. \n\nIn chess a win is 1 point and a draw is ½ point with a high tendency towards draws at the highest level.\n\nThe time control for each game in the classical portion of the match is 120 minutes per side for the first 40 moves and 30 minutes for the rest of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting with move 41.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either player in the 2024 World Chess Championship match reaches 7.5 points before the 11th classical game (e.g. by winning 5 games and drawing another 5).\n\nThis question will also resolve as **Yes** if for any other reason the 2024 Chess Champion is declared by FIDE before the 11th classical game is played (e.g. a player forteits the match or is disqualified during the match).", "fine_print": "* If the match is played by any other players than Ding Liren and Gukesh Dommaraju, the question will be **Annulled**.\n* If the result of the game 10 is not known by 7 January 2025 (and the 2024 Chess Champion is still not declared by that date) the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n* If the results of one or more of the first 10 games are annulled, then these games are not included in the count of the games for the resolution. This includes the case when both players receive 0 points for the game for violating Fair Play policy.\n* If the 2024 Chess Champion title is later revoked (e.g. due to revealed fact of cheating), it will not affect the question resolution.", "post_id": 28834, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733292248.53252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733292248.53252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.003138846255140642 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.816855755117352, 0.09578707349426503, 0.0471123603738702, 0.1424639356161183, 0.0, 0.05619459079047469, 0.07658881074466624, 0.0, 0.005537830714382473, 0.10669430773056678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.0, 0.009167091186681414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.7187232582232, "peer_score": 6.798970443270981, "coverage": 0.8915853368652449, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999974142523373, "spot_peer_score": 9.459378148494888, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 80.7187232582232, "peer_archived_score": 6.798970443270981, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.459378148494888, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 197, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [World Chess Championship 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) match between the reigning world champion Ding Liren (Rating: 2728 as of 1 Nov 2024) and the challenger Gukesh Dommaraju (Rating: 2783 as of 1 Nov 2024) is set to take place between 25 November and 13 December 2024, in Singapore.\n\nAs of November 1st, 2024, Ding Liren is [23rd in the world](https://2700chess.com/), but was in the top 5 for 6 consecutive years, reaching as high as #2, with his top rating being the 12th highest in the history of chess. He also [used to have](https://en.chessbase.com/post/ding-liren-profile-2024-fide) the longest unbeaten streak of 100 games, until Carsen surpassed it. Gukesh D has his own [set of achievements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gukesh_Dommaraju), being the third-youngest grandmaster in history, the third-youngest to reach a chess rating of 2700, the youngest to reach a rating of 2750, the youngest Candidates Tournament winner and the youngest contender to compete for the World Championship.\n\nThe match will be best of 14 games; a score of at least 7½ would win the world championship. If the score is equal after 14 games, tiebreak games with faster time controls will be played. \n\nIn chess a win is 1 point and a draw is ½ point with a high tendency towards draws at the highest level.\n\nThe time control for each game in the classical portion of the match is 120 minutes per side for the first 40 moves and 30 minutes for the rest of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting with move 41." }, { "id": 28830, "title": "Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?", "short_title": "90% of US road vehicles sold in 2075 have Level 5 autonomy?", "url_title": "90% of US road vehicles sold in 2075 have Level 5 autonomy?", "slug": "90-of-us-road-vehicles-sold-in-2075-have-level-5-autonomy", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-10T23:38:28.393423Z", "published_at": "2024-10-10T23:39:37.038780Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T14:57:04.944823Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-10T23:39:37.038778Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-03-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-11T02:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28796, "title": "Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?", "created_at": "2024-10-10T23:38:28.393506Z", "open_time": "2024-10-11T02:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-11T02:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-11T02:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-03-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2075-01-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SAE International uses a [classification of 6 levels](https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update), from 0 to 5, for self-driving capabilities. Level 5 correspond to full automation where the passengers are never requested to take over driving and the car can drive in all areas and conditions. As of October 2024, [no system has achieved level 5 autonomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car).\n\n*This question is prompted by a [claim by Elon Musk](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1844263097244189044) that: \"...all transport will be fully autonomous within 50 years.\"*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if available data at the time suggest that the percentage of new road vehicles sold in the United States, from January 1, 2075 to December 31, 2075, that have SAE level 5 capabilities is equal to or higher than 95%.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, road vehicles are defined as motorised machines with **a minimum of 4 wheels** designed for use on roads to transport people, goods, or materials. 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Israel has long wanted to carry out such an attack, but the US has reportedly [tried](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-facilities-strikes.html) to dissuade its partner from doing so.", "resolution_criteria": "Any Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear facility—even if it does minimal damage—will resolve this question in the affirmative.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28785, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728828828.003932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728828828.003932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.1178636451828388 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 2.1096621401724667, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6583274883502067, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, foreign policy analysts are now speculating about whether Israel will decide to strike Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities in an effort to set back Tehran's nuclear program. Israel has long wanted to carry out such an attack, but the US has reportedly [tried](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-facilities-strikes.html) to dissuade its partner from doing so." }, { "id": 28783, "title": "Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?", "short_title": "White 2024 Christmas in Europe", "url_title": "White 2024 Christmas in Europe", "slug": "white-2024-christmas-in-europe", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-08T14:13:09.931976Z", "published_at": "2024-10-29T18:51:38.429753Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.990112Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-29T18:51:38.429752Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-15T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-15T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-26T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28771, "title": "Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-08T14:13:09.932068Z", "open_time": "2024-10-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-26T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-27T22:05:14.261082Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-15T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question!\n\nCultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at all. Neither do all Russians celebrate Christmas in December. These differences are irrelevant for the question, which is focused on Christmas as celebrated by most cultures around the northern Atlantic.\n\n----\n\nThis question uses METAR data as the source for convenience, because it provides a standardised view into actual observed weather at diverse geographical locations. Here's an example of a METAR report:\n\n> METAR UUEE 050800Z 28003MPS 240V320 7000 -SN SCT006 M11/M13 Q1018 R24L/490336 R24C/490336 NOSIG=\n\nThe standard allows for many optional components, but common components are\n\n- The reporting station (in this case UUEE, which is a Moscow airport) comes after the preamble\n- the day and time of observation (in this case 050800Z meaning day 5 of the month, at 8 o'clock UTC)\n- wind speed and direction (in this case 28003MPS meaning 280°, 3 m/s)\n- visibility (in this case 7000 meaning 7000 metres)\n- cloud cover (in this case SCT006 meaning scattered at 600 feet)\n- temperature (in this case M11/M13 meaning temperature of -11 °C)\n- air pressure (in this case Q1018 meaning 1018 millibar)\n- runway information, starting with R\n- a near-term forecast (in this case NOSIG meaning no significant change expected)\n\nBut! Critically for this question, there are also indications of precipitation. In the example above, that's \"-SN\" for \"light snow\".\n\nHere are some other examples of reports indicating snow:\n\n> METAR ESSA 270120Z 01005KT 9999 -SN SCT007 BKN009 OVC046 M05/M06 Q1010 RESN BECMG BKN020=`\n\nRESN means \"recent snow\"\n\n> METAR ESNU 252220Z 33009KT 9999 SG FEW018 OVC055 M03/M05 Q1003=\n\nSG means \"snow grains\"\n\n> METAR EFOU 041820Z AUTO 14003KT 9999 -SHSN SCT044 M13/M15 Q1013=\n\n-SHSN means \"light snow shower\"\n\nFor decoding reports, [the web tool by Flight Plan Database](https://flightplandatabase.com/METAR) can be a helpful assistant.", "resolution_criteria": "The 10 largest cities in Europe [according to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_cities_by_population_within_city_limits#Largest_cities) are\n\n- Istanbul\n- Moscow\n- London\n- Saint Petersburg\n- Berlin\n- Madrid\n- Kyiv\n- Rome\n- Bucharest\n- Paris\n\nFor this question, we unfortunately have to exclude Kyiv due to the lack of standardised aerodrome weather reporting in the area.\n\nEach of the remaining 9 cities will have been considered to have had a white Christmas if, on either of the days 24 December or 25 December, there has been precipitation in the form of snow. The selection will be set to begin at hour 0 UTC on the 24th and end at hour 23 UTC on the 25th.\n\nIf four or more of them have had a white Christmas, then this question resolves as **Yes**. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "To determine whether there has been precipitation in these cities, the [Ogimet METAR](http://www.ogimet.com/metars.phtml.en) historic data for the dates given above will be consulted. If that source is down, a similar one will be located. If none can be found with reasonable effort, the question resolves Ambiguous.\n\nThe lookup will be made for the following airports (corresponding to the cities listed above, excluding Kyiv): LTFM, UUEE, EGLL, ULLI, EDDB, LEMD, LIRF, LROP, LFPG. Any reference to snow (SN), snow grains (SG), snow pellets (SP or GS), or snow shower (SW) will count as there being precipitation in the form of snow.", "post_id": 28783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734301887.669295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734301887.669295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.06338507502124056 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3945207521313467, 1.4754816280672973, 0.7250442634484896, 2.598272436613246, 0.7081278126566147, 1.5091841745689996, 0.38231536828464696, 0.4050141925588727, 1.8957442994785676, 0.0, 0.4450120093599725, 0.10346871329063262, 0.06576548651736722, 0.0016348593756712248, 0.0, 0.09726341811030133, 0.041854423028354265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8145691660186479, 0.03139403186470007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010175510648281665, 0.5305354475802987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022133849035742014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008476588784980537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07277615171478852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.12174458042242, "peer_score": 5.540475607535804, "coverage": 0.9997095544447164, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997095544447164, "spot_peer_score": 3.138571136159323, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 87.12174458042242, "peer_archived_score": 5.540475607535804, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.138571136159323, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 147, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question!\n\nCultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at all. Neither do all Russians celebrate Christmas in December. These differences are irrelevant for the question, which is focused on Christmas as celebrated by most cultures around the northern Atlantic.\n\n----\n\nThis question uses METAR data as the source for convenience, because it provides a standardised view into actual observed weather at diverse geographical locations. Here's an example of a METAR report:\n\n> METAR UUEE 050800Z 28003MPS 240V320 7000 -SN SCT006 M11/M13 Q1018 R24L/490336 R24C/490336 NOSIG=\n\nThe standard allows for many optional components, but common components are\n\n- The reporting station (in this case UUEE, which is a Moscow airport) comes after the preamble\n- the day and time of observation (in this case 050800Z meaning day 5 of the month, at 8 o'clock UTC)\n- wind speed and direction (in this case 28003MPS meaning 280°, 3 m/s)\n- visibility (in this case 7000 meaning 7000 metres)\n- cloud cover (in this case SCT006 meaning scattered at 600 feet)\n- temperature (in this case M11/M13 meaning temperature of -11 °C)\n- air pressure (in this case Q1018 meaning 1018 millibar)\n- runway information, starting with R\n- a near-term forecast (in this case NOSIG meaning no significant change expected)\n\nBut! Critically for this question, there are also indications of precipitation. In the example above, that's \"-SN\" for \"light snow\".\n\nHere are some other examples of reports indicating snow:\n\n> METAR ESSA 270120Z 01005KT 9999 -SN SCT007 BKN009 OVC046 M05/M06 Q1010 RESN BECMG BKN020=`\n\nRESN means \"recent snow\"\n\n> METAR ESNU 252220Z 33009KT 9999 SG FEW018 OVC055 M03/M05 Q1003=\n\nSG means \"snow grains\"\n\n> METAR EFOU 041820Z AUTO 14003KT 9999 -SHSN SCT044 M13/M15 Q1013=\n\n-SHSN means \"light snow shower\"\n\nFor decoding reports, [the web tool by Flight Plan Database](https://flightplandatabase.com/METAR) can be a helpful assistant." }, { "id": 28748, "title": "Anitta será indicada ao Grammy Awards 2025 em uma categoria principal?", "short_title": "Anitta concorrerá ao Grammy 2025?", "url_title": "Anitta concorrerá ao Grammy 2025?", "slug": "anitta-concorrera-ao-grammy-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-07T17:58:07.999418Z", "published_at": "2024-10-07T17:58:22.920442Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.824229Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-07T17:58:22.920440Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T15:20:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-07T17:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28747, "title": "Anitta será indicada ao Grammy Awards 2025 em uma categoria principal?", "created_at": "2024-10-07T17:58:07.999511Z", "open_time": "2024-10-07T17:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-07T17:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-07T17:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-09T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T15:20:00Z", 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28747, "title": "O índice de inflação no Brasil será menor em 2025 do que foi em 2024?", "short_title": "Inflação diminuirá em 2025?", "url_title": "Inflação diminuirá em 2025?", "slug": "inflacao-diminuira-em-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-07T17:45:17.064660Z", "published_at": "2024-10-07T17:45:38.361903Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.206451Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-07T17:45:38.361902Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-07T17:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28746, "title": "O índice de inflação no Brasil será menor em 2025 do que foi em 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-07T17:45:17.064758Z", "open_time": "2024-10-07T17:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-07T17:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-07T17:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Contextualização**\n\nA inflação é um dos principais indicadores econômicos acompanhados no Brasil, refletindo as variações nos preços de bens e serviços ao longo do tempo. Em 2024, a economia brasileira apresentou esforços para manter a inflação sob controle, com políticas fiscais e monetárias sendo ajustadas para responder a pressões inflacionárias internas e externas. O cenário de 2025 dependerá de vários fatores, incluindo:\n\n1. **Política Monetária do Banco Central**:\n * A trajetória da **Taxa Selic**, que atualmente está em níveis restritivos, será fundamental para controlar a inflação. Decisões do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) influenciam diretamente o crédito, consumo e investimentos.\n2. **Pressões Internas e Externas**:\n * Internamente, o impacto do mercado de trabalho, políticas fiscais e preços administrados (como combustíveis e energia) pode influenciar a inflação.\n * Externamente, variações nos preços de commodities, flutuações cambiais e condições globais, como taxas de juros nos Estados Unidos, também podem afetar a inflação.\n3. **Indicadores Recentes**:\n * O IPCA (Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo), principal medidor de inflação no Brasil, fechou 2024 em **X%** (substituir pelo valor real quando disponível).\n * Metas de inflação para 2025 foram fixadas pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN), com um teto de tolerância que pode ser crucial na análise.\n\nO índice de inflação do Brasil em 2024 é de 4.37%.\n[Fonte](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2024-09/estimativas-do-mercado-para-inflacao-e-pib-permanecem-estaveis).\n\n[CNN](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/economia/macroeconomia/mercado-eleva-previsao-para-inflacao-pela-6a-vez-consecutiva-em-2024-mostra-focus/).\n\n[Forbes](https://forbes.com.br/forbes-money/2024/09/governo-eleva-previsao-de-alta-do-pib-e-da-inflacao-em-2024/).\n\n[Relatório Banco Central do Brasil](https://www.bcb.gov.br/publicacoes/ri).", "resolution_criteria": "Dados oficiais do IPCA, fontes confiáveis de mídia.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28747, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755332917.475743, "end_time": 1760661358.965, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32999999999999996 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755332917.475743, "end_time": 1760661358.965, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32999999999999996 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.3594243200886884 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Contextualização**\n\nA inflação é um dos principais indicadores econômicos acompanhados no Brasil, refletindo as variações nos preços de bens e serviços ao longo do tempo. Em 2024, a economia brasileira apresentou esforços para manter a inflação sob controle, com políticas fiscais e monetárias sendo ajustadas para responder a pressões inflacionárias internas e externas. O cenário de 2025 dependerá de vários fatores, incluindo:\n\n1. **Política Monetária do Banco Central**:\n * A trajetória da **Taxa Selic**, que atualmente está em níveis restritivos, será fundamental para controlar a inflação. Decisões do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) influenciam diretamente o crédito, consumo e investimentos.\n2. **Pressões Internas e Externas**:\n * Internamente, o impacto do mercado de trabalho, políticas fiscais e preços administrados (como combustíveis e energia) pode influenciar a inflação.\n * Externamente, variações nos preços de commodities, flutuações cambiais e condições globais, como taxas de juros nos Estados Unidos, também podem afetar a inflação.\n3. **Indicadores Recentes**:\n * O IPCA (Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo), principal medidor de inflação no Brasil, fechou 2024 em **X%** (substituir pelo valor real quando disponível).\n * Metas de inflação para 2025 foram fixadas pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN), com um teto de tolerância que pode ser crucial na análise.\n\nO índice de inflação do Brasil em 2024 é de 4.37%.\n[Fonte](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2024-09/estimativas-do-mercado-para-inflacao-e-pib-permanecem-estaveis).\n\n[CNN](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/economia/macroeconomia/mercado-eleva-previsao-para-inflacao-pela-6a-vez-consecutiva-em-2024-mostra-focus/).\n\n[Forbes](https://forbes.com.br/forbes-money/2024/09/governo-eleva-previsao-de-alta-do-pib-e-da-inflacao-em-2024/).\n\n[Relatório Banco Central do Brasil](https://www.bcb.gov.br/publicacoes/ri)." }, { "id": 28746, "title": "O Rio Grande do Sul sofrerá novas inundações severas em 2025 (até agosto de 2025)?", "short_title": "Inundações no RS até agosto de 2025?", "url_title": "Inundações no RS até agosto de 2025?", "slug": "inundacoes-no-rs-ate-agosto-de-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-07T15:56:51.755465Z", "published_at": "2024-10-07T15:57:55.985085Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.404161Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-07T15:57:55.985083Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-07T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28745, "title": "O Rio Grande do Sul sofrerá novas inundações severas em 2025 (até agosto de 2025)?", "created_at": "2024-10-07T15:56:51.755600Z", "open_time": "2024-10-07T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-07T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-07T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "O estado do Rio Grande do Sul sofreu com graves inundações, deixando mais de 180 mortos/desaparecidos entre Abril e Maio de 2024. [Estadao](https://www.estadao.com.br/sustentabilidade/chuva-no-rio-grande-do-sul-e-crise-climatica-ate-quando-vamos-correr-atras-do-prejuizo/).\n\n[Mudanças Climáticas e Enchentes no Sul do Brasil](https://www.ifsc.edu.br/en/web/ifsc-verifica/w/mudancas-climaticas-e-enchentes-no-sul-do-brasil-que-licoes-temos-a-aprender-)\n\n[Mudança climática dobrou a probabilidade de ocorrência de chuvas extremas no Sul do Brasil](https://www.gov.br/mcti/pt-br/acompanhe-o-mcti/noticias/2024/06/mudanca-climatica-dobrou-a-probabilidade-de-ocorrencia-de-chuvas-extremas-no-sul-do-brasil).", "resolution_criteria": "Dados da Defesa Civil e dados da mídia mainstream amplamente divulgados.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28746, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754443617.218, "end_time": 1759534507.886, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754443617.218, "end_time": 1759534507.886, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.03 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "O estado do Rio Grande do Sul sofreu com graves inundações, deixando mais de 180 mortos/desaparecidos entre Abril e Maio de 2024. [Estadao](https://www.estadao.com.br/sustentabilidade/chuva-no-rio-grande-do-sul-e-crise-climatica-ate-quando-vamos-correr-atras-do-prejuizo/).\n\n[Mudanças Climáticas e Enchentes no Sul do Brasil](https://www.ifsc.edu.br/en/web/ifsc-verifica/w/mudancas-climaticas-e-enchentes-no-sul-do-brasil-que-licoes-temos-a-aprender-)\n\n[Mudança climática dobrou a probabilidade de ocorrência de chuvas extremas no Sul do Brasil](https://www.gov.br/mcti/pt-br/acompanhe-o-mcti/noticias/2024/06/mudanca-climatica-dobrou-a-probabilidade-de-ocorrencia-de-chuvas-extremas-no-sul-do-brasil)." } ] }
