Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2020
{ "count": 5957, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2040", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2000", "results": [ { "id": 28744, "title": "O Rio Grande do Sul sofrerá inundações até o final de Março de 2025?", "short_title": "O RS sofrerá inundações no primeiro trimestre de 2025?", "url_title": "O RS sofrerá inundações no primeiro trimestre de 2025?", "slug": "o-rs-sofrera-inundacoes-no-primeiro-trimestre-de-2025", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-07T15:42:59.948207Z", "published_at": "2025-01-10T22:33:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.381471Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-10T22:33:17Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:24:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 135, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "tournament": [ { "id": 32632, "type": "tournament", "name": "Torneio de Previsões do Brasil - 1º Trimestre", "slug": "Brasil", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL_keLMM1n._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "prize_pool": "1500.00", "start_date": "2025-01-22T18:28:39Z", "close_date": "2025-05-02T20:01:37Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-01-13T18:29:24.189802Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-02T14:26:22.883704Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28744, "title": "O Rio Grande do Sul sofrerá inundações até o final de Março de 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-07T15:42:59.948353Z", "open_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-22T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T01:28:08.815009Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "O estado do Rio Grande do Sul sofreu inundações no período entre 27 de abril e 2 de maio, chegando a quantidade de 500 a 700 mm por chuva neste período. Defesa Civil do Rio Grande do Sul reportou 183 mortes.\nAo todo, 478 municípios gaúchos foram atingidos por inundações, quedas de barreiras e deslizamentos de terra.\n\n[Defesa Civil](https://www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br/upload/arquivos/202404/29202820-aviso-254-atualizacao.pdf).", "resolution_criteria": "Para entendimento do resultado \"SIM\":\nConsidera-se \"inundação\" o volume de chuvas acumuladas em um período sequencial de 5 dias, em qualquer momento do primeiro trimestre (de Janeiro a 31 de Março de 2025), com indíces de precipitação >= 300mm (maiores ou iguais a 300 mm de chuva).\n\nPara esta ques desta questão, levaremos em consideração qualquer região do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, que possa a atender este critério.\n\nDados pluviométricos a oficiais do INMET: [INMET](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/)", "fine_print": "Protocolo de Medição: \"Em caso de indisponibilidade dos dados do INMET, serão aceitos dados de:\n\n* Estações meteorológicas da EMBRAPA\n* Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)", "post_id": 28744, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743487346.730441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.052 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743487346.730441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.052 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.11471084771299835 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.108265240244611, 2.062044929348319, 2.6892597118130306, 2.1374860581714907, 1.3474181195910213, 2.186230579359585, 1.2144220780575499, 0.017375053937194733, 0.027899630814685484, 0.0, 0.48181348054699297, 0.018634731409174585, 0.0011799877884741538, 0.16186048145226392, 0.0, 0.00023164953938741264, 0.010008111503974924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003637412100559348, 0.00031326503155383454, 0.0, 0.002567562607506935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019362286285014302, 0.0, 0.00019694962065035435, 0.022672650554664806, 0.0, 0.2764813726312902, 2.665423269405913e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011357208052754583, 0.07514838264748475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.227026852952997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3046833733123465, 0.16237582569504047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3449470559155362, 0.0, 0.016303685253121963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003543841615422515, 1.0285428161728492, 0.13626270794032003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021249607660824277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47833322726991295 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.90003046224624, "peer_score": 43.28353883814704, "coverage": 0.9971134432640658, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9971134432640658, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 91.90003046224624, "peer_archived_score": 43.28353883814704, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 273, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "O estado do Rio Grande do Sul sofreu inundações no período entre 27 de abril e 2 de maio, chegando a quantidade de 500 a 700 mm por chuva neste período. Defesa Civil do Rio Grande do Sul reportou 183 mortes.\nAo todo, 478 municípios gaúchos foram atingidos por inundações, quedas de barreiras e deslizamentos de terra.\n\n[Defesa Civil](https://www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br/upload/arquivos/202404/29202820-aviso-254-atualizacao.pdf)." }, { "id": 28733, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier's government pass in the French National Assembly?", "short_title": "Barnier no-confidence vote succeeds?", "url_title": "Barnier no-confidence vote succeeds?", "slug": "barnier-no-confidence-vote-succeeds", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-06T12:25:45.376496Z", "published_at": "2024-10-06T13:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.223071Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-06T13:40:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-08T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-08T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-06T13:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28733, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier's government pass in the French National Assembly?", "created_at": "2024-10-06T12:25:45.376496Z", "open_time": "2024-10-06T13:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-06T17:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-06T17:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-09T20:28:20.380769Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-08T05:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-08T05:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Prime Minister of France Michel Barnier, from the Republicans party, faces a [no-confidence vote](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/french-left-moves-no-confidence-vote-against-barnier-with-little-hope-it-passes/) filed on October 4th by the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP).\n\nThe snap legislative elections held on June 30 and July 7 saw the far-right National Rally (RN) win a plurality of votes; however, tactical voting by supporters of President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Renaissance and NFP denied Marine Le Pen's RN a plurality of seats, with 1/3 of total seats going to the left-wing bloc.\n\nNFP claims this gave them a mandate to implement their full program, which President Macron disagreed with, refusing to appoint the Front's preferred Prime Ministerial candidate Lucie Castets without some compromise with the center's positions. ([Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/08/27/french-left-denounces-denial-of-democracy-after-macron-refuses-to-appoint-its-candidate-as-pm_6722295_7.html))\n\nSubsequent talks between the Élysée Palace and each parliamentary party led to the appointment of center-right Michel Barnier, formerly the chief Brexit negotiator on the EU side, as Prime Minister. The semi-presidential system in France does not require an explicit vote of confidence in a new occupant of Hôtel Matignon, but they can be forced to resign by a vote of no confidence that passes in the National Assembly. The vote against Mr Barnier will likely take place on October 8.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the vote of no confidence succeeds, according to the criteria in place in the French Constitution and National Assembly procedural rules.", "fine_print": "The [National Assembly](https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/) shall be the main source for resolution, with [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) being a valid alternative.\n\nThe question may resolve at any time the outcome of the vote is known, with the relatively late resolution date being set to accommodate eventual reschedulings or other procedural manoeuvers.", "post_id": 28733, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728349386.493166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728349386.493166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.022258167096878383 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.5530210864100233, 1.0186679699572716, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9937042483818023, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.48586654970416, "peer_score": -0.24806301478540632, "coverage": 0.9839649508155703, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9839649508155703, "spot_peer_score": 0.02416464187678211, "baseline_archived_score": 93.48586654970416, "peer_archived_score": -0.24806301478540632, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.02416464187678211 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728291783.377561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728291783.377561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9948617870744121, 0.005138212925587888 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Prime Minister of France Michel Barnier, from the Republicans party, faces a [no-confidence vote](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/french-left-moves-no-confidence-vote-against-barnier-with-little-hope-it-passes/) filed on October 4th by the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP).\n\nThe snap legislative elections held on June 30 and July 7 saw the far-right National Rally (RN) win a plurality of votes; however, tactical voting by supporters of President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Renaissance and NFP denied Marine Le Pen's RN a plurality of seats, with 1/3 of total seats going to the left-wing bloc.\n\nNFP claims this gave them a mandate to implement their full program, which President Macron disagreed with, refusing to appoint the Front's preferred Prime Ministerial candidate Lucie Castets without some compromise with the center's positions. ([Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/08/27/french-left-denounces-denial-of-democracy-after-macron-refuses-to-appoint-its-candidate-as-pm_6722295_7.html))\n\nSubsequent talks between the Élysée Palace and each parliamentary party led to the appointment of center-right Michel Barnier, formerly the chief Brexit negotiator on the EU side, as Prime Minister. The semi-presidential system in France does not require an explicit vote of confidence in a new occupant of Hôtel Matignon, but they can be forced to resign by a vote of no confidence that passes in the National Assembly. The vote against Mr Barnier will likely take place on October 8." }, { "id": 28724, "title": "Will Black voter turnout in Florida exceed 60% in the 2024 election?", "short_title": "Black voter turnout in FL", "url_title": "Black voter turnout in FL", "slug": "black-voter-turnout-in-fl", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-04T22:01:40.507606Z", "published_at": "2024-10-04T22:01:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.522558Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-04T22:01:57Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-04T22:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32554, "name": "The City of Pensacola, Florida", "type": "community", 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"title": "Will Black voter turnout in Florida exceed 60% in the 2024 election?", "created_at": "2024-10-04T22:01:40.507606Z", "open_time": "2024-10-04T22:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-07T22:01:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-07T22:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question probes whether heightened engagement from Black voters, spurred by Kamala Harris's candidacy and key down-ballot races, will reach levels similar to those seen in the 2020 presidential election." }, { "id": 28722, "title": "Will the Shoreline Park pickleball courts be started by week of Oct 28?", "short_title": "Shoreline Park pickleball courts contruction", "url_title": "Shoreline Park pickleball courts contruction", "slug": "shoreline-park-pickleball-courts-contruction", "author_id": 209468, "author_username": "Breezer54", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-04T21:33:01.806611Z", "published_at": "2024-10-04T21:33:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.732604Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-04T21:33:20Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T18:00:00Z", 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It covers topics such as hurricane impact predictions, economic development, environmental changes, and public policy shifts. \r\n\r\nAnyone is welcome to forecast, but I would especially like to see forecasts by GB residents! Want to add a question? <a href=\"mailto: b59612345@gmail.com\r\n\">Email me</a>!", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_8.07.43PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/us-flgbr.gif", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3623, "name": "The City of Gulf Breeze, Florida", "type": "community", "slug": "gulfbreeze", "description": "This page is for residents of <a href=\"https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/\">Gulf Breeze</a>, FL and focuses on forecasting local events, trends, and challenges affecting our coastal community. It covers topics such as hurricane impact predictions, economic development, environmental changes, and public policy shifts. \r\n\r\nAnyone is welcome to forecast, but I would especially like to see forecasts by GB residents! Want to add a question? <a href=\"mailto: b59612345@gmail.com\r\n\">Email me</a>!", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_8.07.43PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/us-flgbr.gif", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 28722, "title": "Will the Shoreline Park pickleball courts be started by week of Oct 28?", "created_at": "2024-10-04T21:33:01.806611Z", "open_time": "2024-10-04T21:33:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-07T21:33:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-07T21:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Parks and Recreation department is currently preparing the Shoreline North area for the new pickleball courts. Sport Surface Pros is set to start work at Highpoint Park during the week of October 21. Following that, they will begin resurfacing and restriping at Shoreline Park the week of October 28.\n\nhttps://news.gulfbreezenews.com/pageview/viewer/2024-09-26#page=3", "resolution_criteria": "Will the resurfacing and restriping actually begin the week of October 28?", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28722, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730669793.382204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730669793.382204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.6025389828474057 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289520.777361, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289520.777361, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10674531986612468, 0.8932546801338753 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Parks and Recreation department is currently preparing the Shoreline North area for the new pickleball courts. Sport Surface Pros is set to start work at Highpoint Park during the week of October 21. Following that, they will begin resurfacing and restriping at Shoreline Park the week of October 28.\n\nhttps://news.gulfbreezenews.com/pageview/viewer/2024-09-26#page=3" }, { "id": 28706, "title": "Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?", "short_title": "o1 ranked 1 in all categories Dec. 30, 2024?", "url_title": "o1 ranked 1 in all categories Dec. 30, 2024?", "slug": "o1-ranked-1-in-all-categories-dec-30-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-04T05:29:17.315462Z", "published_at": "2024-10-07T21:47:02.439060Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.695881Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-07T21:47:02.439057Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 179, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28706, "title": "Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-10-04T05:29:17.315462Z", "open_time": "2024-10-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T11:42:20.235876Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) (previously hosted on <https://lmsys.org/>) is a [benchmarking platform](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) for large language models (LLMs). It uses an [Elo rating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system) similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Besides general rankings, Chatbot Arena has added various more narrow categories, such as Hard Prompts, Instruction Following, or Math.\n\nIn September 12, 2024, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/o1/) o1, a series of models [trained](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) to use chain of thought to solve complex problems. According to OpenAI, o1 models perform significantly better in math and coding competitions, among other domains. As of October 4, 2024, o1-preview is ranked #1 in all Chatbot Arena categories.\n\nFor further context please see: \n\n- [Chatbot Arena: New models & Elo system update](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-12-07-leaderboard/)\n- [Does style matter? Disentangling style and substance in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-08-28-style-control/)\n- [Introducing Hard Prompts Category in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-05-17-category-hard/)", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves as **Yes** if a single o1 model has the same or higher rank than all non-o1 models in all of the following 9 categories on [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/), on December 30, 2024:\n\n- Overall\n- Overall w/ Style Control\n- Hard Prompts (Overall)\n- Hard Prompts (Overall) w/ Style Control\n- Instruction Following\n- Coding\n- Math\n- Multi-turn\n- Longer Query\n\nIf all o1 models have at least one category in which they are worse than a non-o1 model, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "- For the purposes of this question, a model having no rank in a category means it is worse than all models that have a rank.\n- Other models also being ranked 1 do not affect resolution, as long as a single o1 model is also ranked 1.\n- An OpenAI model counts as an o1 model if it contains \"o1\" in its name on Chatbot Arena.\n- Any categories that are no longer available on Chatbot Arena will not affect resolution, as long as they are fewer than 4. If at least 4 of the aforementioned 9 categories are not available, this question will be **annulled**.\n- Any categories that are renamed but have the same methodology will be considered equivalent for purposes of this question. \n- As of October 4, 2024, the relevant ranks are presented in both the Overview tab and in the Arena tab, by selecting the relevant category and potentially applying the required filter.", "post_id": 28706, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735471116.424311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 161, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735471116.424311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 161, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02722019737825514 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.992329836988699, 5.925470996503904, 1.8717957235705678, 1.4525378431992269, 0.4440629750167825, 1.3696374040761674, 0.4819111349919144, 0.41459698010856844, 0.050005856927051354, 0.11074898235713466, 0.324315686652623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49217102463282814, 0.2580112413739638, 0.10155456989073638, 0.01408805833169708, 0.0, 0.01996822231971246, 0.0, 0.11508948012094329, 0.1217759624036074, 0.0, 0.0002147712921800137, 0.008110711638443426, 0.032727386692826196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03367801650575274, 0.0, 0.061060286434788134, 0.001164984756655131, 0.006691927369681809, 0.008640251331841537, 0.0, 2.2803932918607588e-05, 0.0, 0.001360869537157448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05415778280432261, 0.04518841664853774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033970979419781673, 0.00014840074689743109, 0.0047953512875989176, 0.0, 2.887571686463189e-05, 9.859638845107449e-05, 0.0, 0.00030172279921580864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004140192635600553, 0.007800301523468253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027106214539265813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.2214495205021376e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005057045123921557, 0.006479749098549982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.349666761373264e-05, 0.001577433233872069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005216656092375146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023453328197903245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002632132447851293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013013734650132465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004279028701895105 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -121.42138232425188, "peer_score": -17.298097360174918, "coverage": 0.9999968700852165, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999968700852165, "spot_peer_score": 31.030086752299315, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": -121.42138232425188, "peer_archived_score": -17.298097360174918, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.030086752299315, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1028, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) (previously hosted on <https://lmsys.org/>) is a [benchmarking platform](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) for large language models (LLMs). It uses an [Elo rating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system) similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Besides general rankings, Chatbot Arena has added various more narrow categories, such as Hard Prompts, Instruction Following, or Math.\n\nIn September 12, 2024, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/o1/) o1, a series of models [trained](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) to use chain of thought to solve complex problems. According to OpenAI, o1 models perform significantly better in math and coding competitions, among other domains. As of October 4, 2024, o1-preview is ranked #1 in all Chatbot Arena categories.\n\nFor further context please see: \n\n- [Chatbot Arena: New models & Elo system update](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-12-07-leaderboard/)\n- [Does style matter? Disentangling style and substance in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-08-28-style-control/)\n- [Introducing Hard Prompts Category in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-05-17-category-hard/)" }, { "id": 28704, "title": "Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "BirdCast reports ≥1B birds flying in Q4 2024?", "url_title": "BirdCast reports ≥1B birds flying in Q4 2024?", "slug": "birdcast-reports-1b-birds-flying-in-q4-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 126626, "username": "skmmcj" } ], "created_at": "2024-10-03T22:32:41.966973Z", "published_at": "2024-10-07T21:40:25.631082Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.124967Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-07T21:40:25.631078Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28704, "title": "Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-03T22:32:41.966973Z", "open_time": "2024-10-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T22:32:41.938908Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BirdCast is a [consortium](https://birdcast.info/about/collaborators/) of interdisciplinary researchers, with the three primary institutions being the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Colorado State University's Aeroeco Lab, and the University of Massachusetts Amherst, with funding from the National Science Foundation, the Leon Levy Foundation, and Amazon Web Services, among others. Its mission is, according to the [Audubon Society](https://www.audubon.org/news/how-get-most-out-birdcasts-migration-forecasts), to forecast \"the intensity of overnight bird migration across the continental United States, displaying waves of migratory birds on a series of easy-to-read forecast maps.\"\n\nOn the night of October 6-7, 2023, the United States experienced the first billion bird night reported by BirdCast, with Dr. Andrew Farnsworth of The Cornell Lab [posting](https://birdcast.info/news/the-first-billion-bird-night-6-7-october-2023/): \n\n>We will keep this simple – welcome to the billion bird club!\n\n>There is not much more that we can say beyond – in the recorded history of BirdCast, here is the first billion bird night! BILLION! And, as you can see, this epic and grand occasion did not stop at a billion, growing to nearly 1.2 billion!\n\n<img src=\"https://is-birdcast-wordpress-prod-s3.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/mosaic_202310070220.jpg\" />\n\nHowever, as Watt Poultry, a trade journal for the poultry industry, wrote on September 25, 2024, \"[Beware of another billion-bird migration night](https://www.wattagnet.com/poultry-meat/diseases-health/avian-influenza/article/15704378/beware-of-another-billionbird-migration-night)\": \n\n>Now that fall is upon us and wild birds will soon begin their migrations in North America, it is especially important for poultry producers to make sure all biosecurity precautions are being carried out on their farms to prevent infections of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).\n\n>Emily Pittman, veterinary director, Georgia Poultry Laboratory Network, reminded attendees of the 2024 Georgia Layer Conference on September 23 what day it was, and that in 2023, October 6 was a billion-bird migration night.\n\n>“If you remember last year, this was about when we started having issues (with HPAI) again,” she said.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after October 7, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, BirdCast's [Live bird migration maps](https://birdcast.info/migration-tools/live-migration-maps/) tool reports ≥1000.0 million birds in flight simultaneously over the United States. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The time zone for this question is Eastern Time (ET), as that is the one used by BirdCast.\n\nIn case of the resolution source being unavailable or no longer timely updated before the question can resolve, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025 for the bird migration traffic numbers up to December 31, 2024, 23:50 ET to be shown, at which point this question will be **annulled** if the numbers are still not shown.", "post_id": 28704, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735545733.080148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735545733.080148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.002636731890944485 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.555290450661072, 0.21102391464674358, 0.0059644434428395374, 0.015247193307492276, 0.007280827884852904, 0.005712198004389287, 0.0038503157754529835, 0.0, 0.0024716391381802813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005030841343722017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028439359257530537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022822997644283576 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.18739926958676, "peer_score": 10.23312027775378, "coverage": 0.9999974537652162, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999974537652162, "spot_peer_score": 18.42169858847443, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 98.18739926958676, "peer_archived_score": 10.23312027775378, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.42169858847443, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 384, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "BirdCast is a [consortium](https://birdcast.info/about/collaborators/) of interdisciplinary researchers, with the three primary institutions being the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Colorado State University's Aeroeco Lab, and the University of Massachusetts Amherst, with funding from the National Science Foundation, the Leon Levy Foundation, and Amazon Web Services, among others. Its mission is, according to the [Audubon Society](https://www.audubon.org/news/how-get-most-out-birdcasts-migration-forecasts), to forecast \"the intensity of overnight bird migration across the continental United States, displaying waves of migratory birds on a series of easy-to-read forecast maps.\"\n\nOn the night of October 6-7, 2023, the United States experienced the first billion bird night reported by BirdCast, with Dr. Andrew Farnsworth of The Cornell Lab [posting](https://birdcast.info/news/the-first-billion-bird-night-6-7-october-2023/): \n\n>We will keep this simple – welcome to the billion bird club!\n\n>There is not much more that we can say beyond – in the recorded history of BirdCast, here is the first billion bird night! BILLION! And, as you can see, this epic and grand occasion did not stop at a billion, growing to nearly 1.2 billion!\n\n<img src=\"https://is-birdcast-wordpress-prod-s3.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/mosaic_202310070220.jpg\" />\n\nHowever, as Watt Poultry, a trade journal for the poultry industry, wrote on September 25, 2024, \"[Beware of another billion-bird migration night](https://www.wattagnet.com/poultry-meat/diseases-health/avian-influenza/article/15704378/beware-of-another-billionbird-migration-night)\": \n\n>Now that fall is upon us and wild birds will soon begin their migrations in North America, it is especially important for poultry producers to make sure all biosecurity precautions are being carried out on their farms to prevent infections of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).\n\n>Emily Pittman, veterinary director, Georgia Poultry Laboratory Network, reminded attendees of the 2024 Georgia Layer Conference on September 23 what day it was, and that in 2023, October 6 was a billion-bird migration night.\n\n>“If you remember last year, this was about when we started having issues (with HPAI) again,” she said." }, { "id": 28690, "title": "Will Israel exist as a country on January 1, 2060?", "short_title": "Will Israel exist as a country on January 1, 2060?", "url_title": "Will Israel exist as a country on January 1, 2060?", "slug": "will-israel-exist-as-a-country-on-january-1-2060", "author_id": 115397, "author_username": "sergeant1337", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-01T00:51:18.695581Z", "published_at": "2025-02-17T13:19:42.946626Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T09:47:15.693690Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-17T13:19:42.946623Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2059-12-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-20T13:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28690, "title": "Will Israel exist as a country on January 1, 2060?", "created_at": "2024-10-01T00:51:18.695581Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T13:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-25T13:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-25T13:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2059-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2059-12-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) was established in 1948 and gained UN membership in 1949. As of 2022, it [maintained](https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/israel/#people-and-society) a Jewish majority of approximately 74%. The country has achieved peace agreements with several Arab neighbors, including Egypt ([1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt%E2%80%93Israel_peace_treaty)) Jordan ([1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Jordan_peace_treaty)) and multiple Gulf states through the [2020 Abraham Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords).\n\nThe state faces ongoing security challenges from various actors, including [Hamas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas) in Gaza, [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah) in Lebanon, and Iran's [nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran) and regional influence. Israel also faces [international criticism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_Israel), particularly regarding its policies in the West Bank and Gaza, with some groups characterizing it as a \"colonist\" or \"apartheid state\" - criticisms that intensified following the [October 7th, 2023 Hamas attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_7_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) and subsequent military response.\n\nCurrent [demographic projections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel) indicate continued Jewish population growth through 2050. By 2060, Israel will mark its 112th year since independence.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2060, all of the following conditions are met\n\n* Israel is listed as a UN member state and/or recognized by a majority of UN member states.\n* The state maintains a plurality Jewish population, according to credible sources.\n* The state has not been renamed to a name primarily associated with Palestinian identity or sovereignty (in the judgment of Metaculus) as part of an agreement granting citizenship to Palestinians.", "fine_print": "* The \"Jewish\" criterion includes both religious and secular/cultural identification.\n* In case of a split, name change, or succession, only a clear continuation of the current Israeli state that maintains its UN seat or recognition by UN members will count.\n* The UN dissolving shall not alone resolve this question as **No**, as long as Israel retains wide spread recognition from sovereign states.", "post_id": 28690, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758102425.280156, "end_time": 1783550495.918, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758102425.280156, "end_time": 1783550495.918, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.8214124770677527 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6525656508175627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25840702587058273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08574033531131617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9878495569732366, 0.35843923208154005, 0.9019935026160223, 0.0, 0.40698478172960956, 0.5864174671386203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 2.4292982918207984 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) was established in 1948 and gained UN membership in 1949. As of 2022, it [maintained](https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/israel/#people-and-society) a Jewish majority of approximately 74%. The country has achieved peace agreements with several Arab neighbors, including Egypt ([1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt%E2%80%93Israel_peace_treaty)) Jordan ([1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Jordan_peace_treaty)) and multiple Gulf states through the [2020 Abraham Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords).\n\nThe state faces ongoing security challenges from various actors, including [Hamas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas) in Gaza, [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah) in Lebanon, and Iran's [nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran) and regional influence. Israel also faces [international criticism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_Israel), particularly regarding its policies in the West Bank and Gaza, with some groups characterizing it as a \"colonist\" or \"apartheid state\" - criticisms that intensified following the [October 7th, 2023 Hamas attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_7_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) and subsequent military response.\n\nCurrent [demographic projections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel) indicate continued Jewish population growth through 2050. By 2060, Israel will mark its 112th year since independence." }, { "id": 28683, "title": "O Brasil melhorará sua posição no ranking de índice de pobreza (do G20) até setembro de 2026?", "short_title": "Pobreza e Economia", "url_title": "Pobreza e Economia", "slug": "pobreza-e-economia", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:13:04.145813Z", "published_at": "2024-09-30T16:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.106953Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-30T16:15:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-30T16:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28683, "title": "O Brasil melhorará sua posição no ranking de índice de pobreza (do G20) até setembro de 2026?", "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:13:04.145813Z", "open_time": "2024-09-30T16:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-03T16:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-03T16:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-10-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Em 2024, o Brasil se encontra na penúltima posição do ranking da pobreza (décimo-nono lugar), dentre as 20 maiores economias do mundo (G20). [O Globo](https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/g20-no-brasil/noticia/2024/04/09/brasil-e-o-2o-pais-do-g20-com-maior-percentual-de-pessoas-abaixo-da-linha-da-pobreza-atras-apenas-da-india.ghtml)\n\n[Homicídio e pobreza são desafios do Brasil na comparação com G20](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/geral/noticia/2024-04/homicidios-e-pobreza-sao-desafios-do-brasil-em-comparacao-no-g20)\n\n[Lula anuncia Aliança Global contra Pobreza e diz que Brasil sairá do Mapa da Fome até 2026](https://www.gov.br/planalto/pt-br/acompanhe-o-planalto/noticias/2024/07/lula-anuncia-alianca-global-contra-pobreza-e-diz-que-brasil-saira-do-mapa-da-fome-ate-2026).", "resolution_criteria": "Dados oficiais do IBGE", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28683, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757641552.349831, "end_time": 1760492346.123, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.366 ], "centers": [ 0.508 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757641552.349831, "end_time": 1760492346.123, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.366 ], "centers": [ 0.508 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.492, 0.508 ], "means": [ 0.508 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Em 2024, o Brasil se encontra na penúltima posição do ranking da pobreza (décimo-nono lugar), dentre as 20 maiores economias do mundo (G20). [O Globo](https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/g20-no-brasil/noticia/2024/04/09/brasil-e-o-2o-pais-do-g20-com-maior-percentual-de-pessoas-abaixo-da-linha-da-pobreza-atras-apenas-da-india.ghtml)\n\n[Homicídio e pobreza são desafios do Brasil na comparação com G20](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/geral/noticia/2024-04/homicidios-e-pobreza-sao-desafios-do-brasil-em-comparacao-no-g20)\n\n[Lula anuncia Aliança Global contra Pobreza e diz que Brasil sairá do Mapa da Fome até 2026](https://www.gov.br/planalto/pt-br/acompanhe-o-planalto/noticias/2024/07/lula-anuncia-alianca-global-contra-pobreza-e-diz-que-brasil-saira-do-mapa-da-fome-ate-2026)." }, { "id": 28682, "title": "Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?", "short_title": "Country leaving the EU by 2030?", "url_title": "Country leaving the EU by 2030?", "slug": "country-leaving-the-eu-by-2030", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [ { "id": 198325, "username": "anna.k.hennig" }, { "id": 202409, "username": "EdwardStoppard" }, { "id": 161413, "username": "Emi" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-30T12:17:16.560132Z", "published_at": "2024-10-01T16:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T23:50:14.722287Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-01T16:56:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-01T16:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T14:35:14.591247Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T14:35:14.591247Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28682, "title": "Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-09-30T12:17:16.560132Z", "open_time": "2024-10-01T16:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-04T16:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-04T16:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will any other country follow the UK in leaving the EU?\n\nIn 2016, [a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results) led the United Kingdom to become the first country to leave the institution since its creation in [1993](https://www.britannica.com/topic/European-Union/The-Maastricht-Treaty), the year when the Maastricht Treaty came into force and restructured the European Economic Community into a political union. [The reasons](https://www.jrf.org.uk/political-mindsets/brexit-vote-explained-poverty-low-skills-and-lack-of-opportunities) for the UK’s withdrawal were multifaceted, including immigration, sovereignty, the economy, and dissatisfaction with the political establishment.\n\nThe UK, while the only country to leave, is not, however, the only country to hold eurosceptic views. In France, there are several Eurosceptic parties, the most prominent historically being National Rally (Rassemblement National), though the party has since [abandoned its “Frexit” ambitions and instead supports \"reform from within\"](https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/le-pens-rassemblement-national-makes-its-ties-to-the-eu-and-the-euro-official/). In Germany, euroscepticism is embodied principally by [Alternative for Germany (AfD)](https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-afd-euroskeptics-turned-far-right-populists/a-64607308) A party on the rise, the AFD won the 2024 state election in [Thuringia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Thuringian_state_election) and came a close second in [Saxony](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Saxony_state_election) and [Brandenburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Brandenburg_state_election). The Netherlands, historically a pro-European country, has also experienced a rise in historically anti-EU parties, with Geert Wilders’ eurosceptic [Party for Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_for_Freedom) becoming the largest in the House of Representatives following the [2023 General Election](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67504272).\n\nEuroscepticism is also prevalent in the Mediterranean, particularly in countries that experienced economic struggle during the early 2010s. [Italy](https://institutdelors.eu/en/publications/italys-euroscepticism-a-case-of-victimhood-and-a-tale-of-miss-opportunity/), [Greece](https://www.longdom.org/open-access/expressions-of-euroscepticism-in-political-parties-of-greece-35591.html), and [Portugal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euroscepticism#Portugal), for example, have notable anti-EU parties on both the right and the left. Elsewhere, anti-EU sentiment is present in Eastern Europe in countries such as Hungary under [Viktor Orban](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240701-eurosceptic-hungary-takes-over-rotating-eu-presidency-amid-concerns-over-pro-russia-stance) and in Poland, where it is spearheaded by [Law and Justice (PiS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_and_Justice).\n\nIn all these cases, attitudes that are critical of the European Union, like with Brexit, tend to revolve around issues like migration (especially after the [2015 Migrant Crisis](https://www.unhcr.org/news/stories/2015-year-europes-refugee-crisis)) economic concerns, and national sovereignty.\n\nGiven the aforementioned rise in the popularity of some anti-EU parties, the growth of the far-right across the continent, and growing divisions in the European Union itself - most notably over the war in Ukraine - the question arises as to the possibility that another country will leave the European Union.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before Jan 1, 2030, at least one member of the European Union formally notifies the European Council of its intention to leave the EU under article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union. Otherwise it will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "The completion of the withdrawal process is not required for a **Yes** resolution.\n\nThis question does not refer exclusively to the current members. A new country joining the EU and then triggering Article 50 would resolve as **Yes**.\n\nIf, before January 1, 2030, the European Union no longer exists as a political entity for the coordination of trade and migration, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nIf any EU member country ceases to exist, this will not affect resolution.", "post_id": 28682, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757548203.854147, "end_time": 1758761114.157908, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757548203.854147, "end_time": 1758761114.157908, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1614725652605474 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.755700693487274, 0.1529516582944074, 0.8705052744070133, 0.616852278065213, 1.007981569988184, 1.2167585492669748, 0.957581382662086, 0.25846296956830356, 0.033136279379270196, 0.0, 1.7406511240606133, 1.3284076513092549, 0.19630404684725627, 0.3551866365553954, 0.0, 0.20891439106852205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47497309121604553, 0.0, 0.084755324759314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9851784903484491, 0.0, 0.5236874151830103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38459879885134624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15032659043345778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018996793087590582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7448906624303225 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289240.264945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289240.264945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9861388916648948, 0.013861108335105227 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will any other country follow the UK in leaving the EU?\n\nIn 2016, [a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results) led the United Kingdom to become the first country to leave the institution since its creation in [1993](https://www.britannica.com/topic/European-Union/The-Maastricht-Treaty), the year when the Maastricht Treaty came into force and restructured the European Economic Community into a political union. [The reasons](https://www.jrf.org.uk/political-mindsets/brexit-vote-explained-poverty-low-skills-and-lack-of-opportunities) for the UK’s withdrawal were multifaceted, including immigration, sovereignty, the economy, and dissatisfaction with the political establishment.\n\nThe UK, while the only country to leave, is not, however, the only country to hold eurosceptic views. In France, there are several Eurosceptic parties, the most prominent historically being National Rally (Rassemblement National), though the party has since [abandoned its “Frexit” ambitions and instead supports \"reform from within\"](https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/le-pens-rassemblement-national-makes-its-ties-to-the-eu-and-the-euro-official/). In Germany, euroscepticism is embodied principally by [Alternative for Germany (AfD)](https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-afd-euroskeptics-turned-far-right-populists/a-64607308) A party on the rise, the AFD won the 2024 state election in [Thuringia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Thuringian_state_election) and came a close second in [Saxony](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Saxony_state_election) and [Brandenburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Brandenburg_state_election). The Netherlands, historically a pro-European country, has also experienced a rise in historically anti-EU parties, with Geert Wilders’ eurosceptic [Party for Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_for_Freedom) becoming the largest in the House of Representatives following the [2023 General Election](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67504272).\n\nEuroscepticism is also prevalent in the Mediterranean, particularly in countries that experienced economic struggle during the early 2010s. [Italy](https://institutdelors.eu/en/publications/italys-euroscepticism-a-case-of-victimhood-and-a-tale-of-miss-opportunity/), [Greece](https://www.longdom.org/open-access/expressions-of-euroscepticism-in-political-parties-of-greece-35591.html), and [Portugal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euroscepticism#Portugal), for example, have notable anti-EU parties on both the right and the left. Elsewhere, anti-EU sentiment is present in Eastern Europe in countries such as Hungary under [Viktor Orban](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240701-eurosceptic-hungary-takes-over-rotating-eu-presidency-amid-concerns-over-pro-russia-stance) and in Poland, where it is spearheaded by [Law and Justice (PiS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_and_Justice).\n\nIn all these cases, attitudes that are critical of the European Union, like with Brexit, tend to revolve around issues like migration (especially after the [2015 Migrant Crisis](https://www.unhcr.org/news/stories/2015-year-europes-refugee-crisis)) economic concerns, and national sovereignty.\n\nGiven the aforementioned rise in the popularity of some anti-EU parties, the growth of the far-right across the continent, and growing divisions in the European Union itself - most notably over the war in Ukraine - the question arises as to the possibility that another country will leave the European Union." }, { "id": 28658, "title": "Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Russia to ban YouTube by 2025", "url_title": "Russia to ban YouTube by 2025", "slug": "russia-to-ban-youtube-by-2025", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-29T06:51:11.372130Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T18:21:49.692899Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.598409Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-22T18:21:49.692897Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { 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null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28658, "title": "Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-09-29T06:51:11.372130Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T23:02:24.006116Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As Moscow has cracked down on independent Russian-language media since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, YouTube has remained a key platform for opposition figures and dissenting voices. However, recent reports of mass outages and slowdowns of the video-sharing platform in Russia have raised concerns about its future in the country.\n\nRussian lawmakers have [blamed Google](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/youtube-slowdown-russia-darkens-freedom-speech-outlook-2024-08-08/), which owns YouTube, for failing to upgrade its equipment in Russia since the invasion, leading to the slowdown that started in mid-July 2024. They claim that the degradation of service is a necessary step to persuade YouTube to reinstate blocked Russian channels. However, Google and technology experts dispute this explanation.\n\nA recent [Russian-language article](https://news.ru/russia/kogda-youtube-zarabotaet-normalno-v-rossii-chto-dlya-etogo-nuzhno/) discussed how this ban could still be in the works (translated by Google Translate):\n\n>According to the chairman of the Digital Economy Development Fund, German Klimenko, YouTube will be blocked in Russia in three to five months.\n\n>\"I think that testing is underway. YouTube's fate is probably predetermined, and it is similar to Instagram's fate (operations are prohibited in the Russian Federation). I would assume that YouTube will hang around for three to five months, and then be blocked,\" he said in a conversation with [aif.ru](https://aif.ru/society/web/-sudba-youtube-reshena-german-klimenko-o-durove-youtube-i-ii-v-seti).\n\nAdditionally:\n\n>Deputy Speaker of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Boris Chernyshov told NEWS.ru that large-scale work is currently underway to increase the capacity of Russian video hosting sites: Rutube, VK video and others, which should replace the American video hosting.\n\n>\"This can be seen from the strong advertising campaign of domestic services. And due to the decline in the quality of the YouTube service, which is currently working intermittently, many bloggers, presenters, and authors have begun to transfer their content to Russian platforms and duplicate all new releases there by default,\" Chernyshov said.\n\nHowever, Chernyshov subsequently [said](https://lenta.ru/news/2024/09/21/deputat-ob-yasnil-zayavlenie-o-polnoy-blokirovke-youtube-v-rossii/) he was misquoted.\n\nAs tensions between Russia and YouTube continue to escalate, this question aims to assess whether the Russian government will take the drastic step of officially banning the platform before January 1, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the Russian government or its official agencies (e.g., Roskomnadzor, explained in the Fine Print) announce a complete ban on access to YouTube within Russia or implement technical measures that effectively block the platform nationwide. The resolution source will be the agencies themselves and/or reporting by other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if YouTube remains accessible in Russia, even with occasional slowdowns or regional outages, and no official ban is announced or implemented by the Russian government before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "- The ban must be officially announced or implemented by the Russian government or its agencies. Statements by individual lawmakers or unofficial sources will not be considered for resolution.\n- Temporary or partial restrictions on YouTube, such as the blocking of specific channels or videos, will not count as a ban unless they effectively prevent access to the entire platform in Russia.\n- The announcement of the intention to ban YouTube is enough to resolve this question as Yes even if no specific implementation date is mentioned.\n\nWith Roskomnadzor, the state of blocking will be checked by entering the query `youtube.com` in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official [blocklist site](https://blocklist.rkn.gov.ru/) and submitting the form. (Please note that the blocklist might not be accessible outside of Russia and a few neighbouring countries without the use of a VPN.)\n\nIf the message returned is: \"доступ ограничивается к странице\" (access to the page is limited), this would mean that the site is in the blocklist and this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIf the message returned is: \"По Вашему запросу ничего не найдено\" (nothing has been found for your query), this would mean that the site is not included in the blocklist and this question resolves as No, as long as there are no other credible sources reporting an announcement or implementation of a ban.", "post_id": 28658, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654926.862856, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.008 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654926.862856, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.007315149912311418 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.413232145231945, 2.342606527731629, 0.6152773368579441, 0.14666740493627042, 0.010061069008004265, 0.14793598880710462, 0.006570468408705801, 0.0, 0.0637598114351524, 0.0, 0.0034335505000329695, 0.0, 0.021694108310922836, 0.0, 0.0011484142794671503, 0.007407145156567662, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20983336296795696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001612177459443177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004321255682073794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005717528485880734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005471834881316766 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 94.5584408587568, "peer_score": 14.764515724696603, "coverage": 0.999918241079611, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999918241079611, "spot_peer_score": 25.08024299469746, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "baseline_archived_score": 94.5584408587568, "peer_archived_score": 14.764515724696603, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.08024299469746, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 451, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As Moscow has cracked down on independent Russian-language media since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, YouTube has remained a key platform for opposition figures and dissenting voices. However, recent reports of mass outages and slowdowns of the video-sharing platform in Russia have raised concerns about its future in the country.\n\nRussian lawmakers have [blamed Google](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/youtube-slowdown-russia-darkens-freedom-speech-outlook-2024-08-08/), which owns YouTube, for failing to upgrade its equipment in Russia since the invasion, leading to the slowdown that started in mid-July 2024. They claim that the degradation of service is a necessary step to persuade YouTube to reinstate blocked Russian channels. However, Google and technology experts dispute this explanation.\n\nA recent [Russian-language article](https://news.ru/russia/kogda-youtube-zarabotaet-normalno-v-rossii-chto-dlya-etogo-nuzhno/) discussed how this ban could still be in the works (translated by Google Translate):\n\n>According to the chairman of the Digital Economy Development Fund, German Klimenko, YouTube will be blocked in Russia in three to five months.\n\n>\"I think that testing is underway. YouTube's fate is probably predetermined, and it is similar to Instagram's fate (operations are prohibited in the Russian Federation). I would assume that YouTube will hang around for three to five months, and then be blocked,\" he said in a conversation with [aif.ru](https://aif.ru/society/web/-sudba-youtube-reshena-german-klimenko-o-durove-youtube-i-ii-v-seti).\n\nAdditionally:\n\n>Deputy Speaker of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Boris Chernyshov told NEWS.ru that large-scale work is currently underway to increase the capacity of Russian video hosting sites: Rutube, VK video and others, which should replace the American video hosting.\n\n>\"This can be seen from the strong advertising campaign of domestic services. And due to the decline in the quality of the YouTube service, which is currently working intermittently, many bloggers, presenters, and authors have begun to transfer their content to Russian platforms and duplicate all new releases there by default,\" Chernyshov said.\n\nHowever, Chernyshov subsequently [said](https://lenta.ru/news/2024/09/21/deputat-ob-yasnil-zayavlenie-o-polnoy-blokirovke-youtube-v-rossii/) he was misquoted.\n\nAs tensions between Russia and YouTube continue to escalate, this question aims to assess whether the Russian government will take the drastic step of officially banning the platform before January 1, 2025." }, { "id": 28657, "title": "Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "China announce metal export restrictions 2025", "url_title": "China announce metal export restrictions 2025", "slug": "china-announce-metal-export-restrictions-2025", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": 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"created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28657, "title": "Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-09-29T06:44:48.994713Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-15T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T17:42:04.090918Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's [recent announcement](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/chinas-antimony-export-controls-rattle-the-tungsten-industry.html) of export controls on antimony, effective September 15, 2024, has raised concerns among industry insiders about the country's willingness to leverage its dominance in the global supply chain of critical metals. Antimony, used in bullets, nuclear weapons production, and lead-acid batteries, is just one of many metals that China has a significant share of global production.\n\nThe announcement follows China's previous export controls [on graphite](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-use-graphite-export-restrictions-encourages-diversification) in 2023 and restrictions on germanium and gallium, two metals used in chipmaking, in response to U.S. efforts to limit China's access to high-end semiconductors. These moves have led some industry experts to speculate that China may soon impose export controls on other critical metals, such as tungsten, which is nearly as hard as a diamond and used in weapons, semiconductors, and industrial cutting machines.\n\nChina's actions are seen by some as retaliatory measures against what it perceives as intrusions into its national interests. As a result, companies in the U.S. and elsewhere are exploring alternatives to reduce their reliance on China for critical metals. However, it remains to be seen whether China will follow through with a blanket implementation of the latest export controls or announce restrictions on additional metals in the near future.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, before January 1, 2025, the Chinese government or any of its official agencies (e.g., Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs) publicly announces (according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)) new export restrictions or controls on any metals not previously subject to such measures as of September 29, 2024.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if no such announcement is made by the Chinese government or its agencies before January 1, 2025, according to any credible source reporting that can be found.", "fine_print": "- The announcement must be an official statement from the Chinese government or its agencies and must clearly indicate the imposition of new export restrictions or controls on specific metals.\n- If China announces the intention to impose new export restrictions or controls on a metal but does not provide a specific implementation date, the question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the announcement is made before January 1, 2025.\n- Amendments or extensions of existing export restrictions on metals will not count towards a \"Yes\" resolution unless they substantially expand the scope or severity of the controls. In case of any ambiguity in such cases, a panel of Metaculus Admins will make a ruling.", "post_id": 28657, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733408970.238678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733408970.238678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9731312017450833 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01590144797162688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010161794999997649, 0.0, 0.023292756538182392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01938707179595673, 0.00960703026312792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001078956545637215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003969259310572884, 0.014841204392750164, 0.010777266248193852, 0.0013662399302902292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019360529176284984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006006204798844153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004665038222800205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004025379543753844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06943620487934168, 0.0, 0.007021506238153396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021671421535911298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7499437156931522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02636788613356748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029005835526161147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423945157233667, 0.0, 0.6729699820206652, 0.0, 0.02392715308150051, 0.3033785810428298, 13.286842296968363 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -13.887872469646288, "peer_score": -0.6229795064411474, "coverage": 0.33441707184093794, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996485726420444, "spot_peer_score": 6.773267722716715, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344504996, "baseline_archived_score": -13.887872469646288, "peer_archived_score": -0.6229795064411474, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.773267722716715, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344504996 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 138, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's [recent announcement](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/chinas-antimony-export-controls-rattle-the-tungsten-industry.html) of export controls on antimony, effective September 15, 2024, has raised concerns among industry insiders about the country's willingness to leverage its dominance in the global supply chain of critical metals. Antimony, used in bullets, nuclear weapons production, and lead-acid batteries, is just one of many metals that China has a significant share of global production.\n\nThe announcement follows China's previous export controls [on graphite](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-use-graphite-export-restrictions-encourages-diversification) in 2023 and restrictions on germanium and gallium, two metals used in chipmaking, in response to U.S. efforts to limit China's access to high-end semiconductors. These moves have led some industry experts to speculate that China may soon impose export controls on other critical metals, such as tungsten, which is nearly as hard as a diamond and used in weapons, semiconductors, and industrial cutting machines.\n\nChina's actions are seen by some as retaliatory measures against what it perceives as intrusions into its national interests. As a result, companies in the U.S. and elsewhere are exploring alternatives to reduce their reliance on China for critical metals. However, it remains to be seen whether China will follow through with a blanket implementation of the latest export controls or announce restrictions on additional metals in the near future." }, { "id": 28655, "title": "Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?", "short_title": "Will GOFAI be a part of the ARC Prize winner?", "url_title": "Will GOFAI be a part of the ARC Prize winner?", "slug": "will-gofai-be-a-part-of-the-arc-prize-winner", "author_id": 128870, "author_username": "hobson", "coauthors": [ { "id": 153157, "username": "DavidHume" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-29T03:32:48.219989Z", "published_at": "2024-10-03T21:01:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.832071Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-03T21:01:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-10T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-10T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T16:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-03T21:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28655, "title": "Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?", "created_at": "2024-09-29T03:32:48.219989Z", "open_time": "2024-10-03T21:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-06T21:01:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-06T21:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T16:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-02T18:50:43.503360Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-10T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-10T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) Prize](https://arcprize.org/)...\n\n>... is a $1,000,000+ public competition to beat and open source a solution to the ARC-AGI benchmark. Hosted by Mike Knoop (Co-founder, Zapier) and François Chollet (Creator of ARC-AGI, Keras).\n\nThe competition rules require an autonomous algorithm to solve 100 visual grid-coloring, few shot learning questions. Typically, but not consistently, three pairs of 9x9 colored squares are provided for training and a single test grid is provided for inference testing. The solutions to each few-shot learning problem must be submitted autonomously while offline (disconnected from the internet) and with limited Kaggle compute resources over a time span of 12 hours.\n\nThe 2024 ARC Prize website at ARCPrize.org lists [LLMs](https://ieeecai.org/2024/wp-content/pdfs/540900a793/540900a793.pdf) among the [4 approaches](https://arcprize.org/guide#approaches) that are popular and an LLM-based algorithm is ranked number one on the [official](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/arc-prize-2024/leaderboard) leaderboard, as of September 30, 2024. However the organizers' analysis doesn't reflect the fact that within the last few months LLMs have risen to the top of ARC leaderboards. Source code and descriptions of the top approach (MindsAI with 47% accuracy) has not been released yet, but appears to be entirely LLM focused. Second place as of September 30, 2024 is held by `alijs`, a Kaggle Grand Master, who has not provided details about their approach.\n\nSee also:\n\n- The official 2024 ARC Prize Kaggle competition [website](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/arc-prize-2024)\n\n- [The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the ARC Challenge](https://lab42.global/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Lab42-Essay-Simon-Ouellette-The-Hitchhikers-Guide-to-the-ARC-Challenge.pdf)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the top ranking algorithm of the 2024 ARC Prize competition incorporates conventional AI algorithms from the first 20 chapters of AI a Modern Approach, by Norvig and Russell, to plan or generate answers during their winning submission. Otherwise the question resolves as **No**.\n\nAll competitors must submit their software on Kaggle by November 10, 2024, and the winning algorithms will be announced December 6, 2024. Source code for all algorithms will be publicly available, according to the [competition rules](https://arcprize.org/competition).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, GOFAI (good old fashioned AI) includes any AI algorithm invented and deployed before 2015 (pre LLM-based AI). The first 20 chapters of Artificial Intelligence a Modern Approach, by Norvig and Russell describe GOFAI.\n\nShould the winning team not submit a voluntary analysis of their own algorithm stating the use or nonuse of GOFAI, then Metaculus judges may use their judgement and analysis of the source code or alternative sources to determine resolution.", "post_id": 28655, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730096380.086583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730096380.086583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5848278161953726 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -9.440197567965434, "peer_score": 36.30662712582638, "coverage": 0.9990622507992022, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9990622507992022, "spot_peer_score": 56.97171415941824, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -9.440197567965434, "peer_archived_score": 36.30662712582638, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 56.97171415941824, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288500.748602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288500.748602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8754378676016337, 0.12456213239836636 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) Prize](https://arcprize.org/)...\n\n>... is a $1,000,000+ public competition to beat and open source a solution to the ARC-AGI benchmark. Hosted by Mike Knoop (Co-founder, Zapier) and François Chollet (Creator of ARC-AGI, Keras).\n\nThe competition rules require an autonomous algorithm to solve 100 visual grid-coloring, few shot learning questions. Typically, but not consistently, three pairs of 9x9 colored squares are provided for training and a single test grid is provided for inference testing. The solutions to each few-shot learning problem must be submitted autonomously while offline (disconnected from the internet) and with limited Kaggle compute resources over a time span of 12 hours.\n\nThe 2024 ARC Prize website at ARCPrize.org lists [LLMs](https://ieeecai.org/2024/wp-content/pdfs/540900a793/540900a793.pdf) among the [4 approaches](https://arcprize.org/guide#approaches) that are popular and an LLM-based algorithm is ranked number one on the [official](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/arc-prize-2024/leaderboard) leaderboard, as of September 30, 2024. However the organizers' analysis doesn't reflect the fact that within the last few months LLMs have risen to the top of ARC leaderboards. Source code and descriptions of the top approach (MindsAI with 47% accuracy) has not been released yet, but appears to be entirely LLM focused. Second place as of September 30, 2024 is held by `alijs`, a Kaggle Grand Master, who has not provided details about their approach.\n\nSee also:\n\n- The official 2024 ARC Prize Kaggle competition [website](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/arc-prize-2024)\n\n- [The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the ARC Challenge](https://lab42.global/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Lab42-Essay-Simon-Ouellette-The-Hitchhikers-Guide-to-the-ARC-Challenge.pdf)" }, { "id": 28650, "title": "Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse 2024?", "url_title": "US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse 2024?", "slug": "us-steelnippon-steel-merger-collapse-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-28T23:47:18.454697Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T18:32:55.391714Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.472449Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28650, "title": "Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-09-28T23:47:18.454697Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T12:30:27.529519Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel):\n\n> On December 18, 2023, Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel Corporation (NSC), the world's third largest steel producer, entered a definitive agreement to purchase United States Steel Corporation (U.S. Steel) for $14.9 billion. Under the terms of the deal, U.S. Steel will become a wholly owned subsidiary of NSC but retain its name and headquarters in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania \\[...].\n\n> The potential foreign ownership of U.S. Steel, which is widely considered an icon of American industry, has generated controversy in the U.S. The White House, lawmakers from both major parties, and the USW have criticized or opposed the deal due to concerns about its impact on workers, supply chains, and national security. Conversely, the transaction has garnered support from various government officials, policy experts, and business analysts, who argue that it will help revitalize U.S. Steel and the country's declining steel industry and counter that Japan is a major economic partner and investor.\n\n> On March 14, 2024, the Biden Administration announced its opposition to the planned acquisition, echoing a statement by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who pledged to block the deal \"instantaneously\" if elected president in the upcoming 2024 presidential elections. The deal is undergoing an antitrust review by the U.S. Department of Justice, and a possible investigation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Nippon Steel has subsequently delayed its timeline for closing the deal from the middle of 2024 towards the end of the year.\n\nCFIUS let the companies [refile their application](https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/us-decision-nippons-bid-us-steel-pushed-back-until-after-election-2024-09-17/) in September, which sets a new deadline in December for the CFIUS to make a decision.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any of the following occur before the merger deal between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel has been fulfilled:\n\n* The sitting U.S. President issues an order blocking the deal\n* U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel jointly announce the deal's cancellation\n* Either U.S. Steel or Nippon Steel unilaterally terminates the deal\n* Either U.S. Steel or Nippon Steel files an SEC Form 8-K announcing the merger agreement's termination or abandonment.\n\nIf none of these have occurred before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nSubsequent legal actions (e.g., lawsuits appealing an order) do not affect the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "The CFIUS recommendation does not directly impact the resolution of this question, even if the CFIUS recommends blocking the deal, as it lacks enforcement authority. 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Under the terms of the deal, U.S. Steel will become a wholly owned subsidiary of NSC but retain its name and headquarters in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania \\[...].\n\n> The potential foreign ownership of U.S. Steel, which is widely considered an icon of American industry, has generated controversy in the U.S. The White House, lawmakers from both major parties, and the USW have criticized or opposed the deal due to concerns about its impact on workers, supply chains, and national security. Conversely, the transaction has garnered support from various government officials, policy experts, and business analysts, who argue that it will help revitalize U.S. Steel and the country's declining steel industry and counter that Japan is a major economic partner and investor.\n\n> On March 14, 2024, the Biden Administration announced its opposition to the planned acquisition, echoing a statement by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who pledged to block the deal \"instantaneously\" if elected president in the upcoming 2024 presidential elections. The deal is undergoing an antitrust review by the U.S. Department of Justice, and a possible investigation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Nippon Steel has subsequently delayed its timeline for closing the deal from the middle of 2024 towards the end of the year.\n\nCFIUS let the companies [refile their application](https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/us-decision-nippons-bid-us-steel-pushed-back-until-after-election-2024-09-17/) in September, which sets a new deadline in December for the CFIUS to make a decision." }, { "id": 28612, "title": "Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038?", "short_title": "Nat Sec bans on Training Cluster locations", "url_title": "Nat Sec bans on Training Cluster locations", "slug": "nat-sec-bans-on-training-cluster-locations", "author_id": 196604, "author_username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-27T12:43:59.818925Z", "published_at": "2024-09-27T12:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.415097Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-27T12:50:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2038-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2039-11-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-27T12:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3422, "name": "David Mathers' Community", "type": "community", "slug": "arb", "description": "I am interested in questions around the future of AI, global catastrophic risks, and effective altruism. I'm a researcher for the consultancy <a href=\"https://arbresearch.com/\">Arb</a>, who works mostly within the AI safety and forecasting spaces, as well as a professional forecaster. I'll probably focus mostly on AI questions here.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2_niu19eM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_4.09.50PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 196604, "username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3422, "name": "David Mathers' Community", "type": "community", "slug": "arb", "description": "I am interested in questions around the future of AI, global catastrophic risks, and effective altruism. I'm a researcher for the consultancy <a href=\"https://arbresearch.com/\">Arb</a>, who works mostly within the AI safety and forecasting spaces, as well as a professional forecaster. I'll probably focus mostly on AI questions here.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2_niu19eM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_4.09.50PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 196604, "username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 28612, "title": "Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038?", "created_at": "2024-09-27T12:43:59.818925Z", "open_time": "2024-09-27T12:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-30T12:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-30T12:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2039-11-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2038-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2038-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Some people (for example, Leopold Aschenbrenner in Situational Awareness) have argued that it is a security threat to the United States for training clusters for leading edge AIs to be located in foreign dictatorships: https://situational-awareness.ai/racing-to-the-trillion-dollar-cluster/ (See the subsection, \"clusters of democracy\"). Whether the US government comes to agree with Aschenbrenner on this, and block a US company from training a model abroad for national security reasons is one sign of whether US AI policy is becoming \"securitized\" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securitization_(international_relations)) More generally, it would also be a sign that the US government is taking claims that AI models will soon be very powerful and important very seriously.", "resolution_criteria": "I will resolve this yes if reliable mainstream media report it has happened by the question close date, and I am >85% confident that the report in question is correct. I'm including the second criteria in order to avoid cases where (for example) the only evidence this has happened is that a single anonymous source told the NYT it has. But cases where no official action is taken, but the government quietly tells Sam Altman or Elon Musk not to locate a cluster in [foreign country] through an informal channel also count, provided the reporting convinces me it actually happened. (My judgment on who counts as a senior enough official to count as speaking for the US government in cases of informal instruction like this.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28612, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746106306.876254, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746106306.876254, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.45494190038282584 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9253059397414548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Some people (for example, Leopold Aschenbrenner in Situational Awareness) have argued that it is a security threat to the United States for training clusters for leading edge AIs to be located in foreign dictatorships: https://situational-awareness.ai/racing-to-the-trillion-dollar-cluster/ (See the subsection, \"clusters of democracy\"). Whether the US government comes to agree with Aschenbrenner on this, and block a US company from training a model abroad for national security reasons is one sign of whether US AI policy is becoming \"securitized\" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securitization_(international_relations)) More generally, it would also be a sign that the US government is taking claims that AI models will soon be very powerful and important very seriously." }, { "id": 28611, "title": "When will models hit 97.5% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)", "short_title": "When will AI hit 97.5% on SWE-Bench Verified?", "url_title": "When will AI hit 97.5% on SWE-Bench Verified?", "slug": "when-will-ai-hit-975-on-swe-bench-verified", "author_id": 196604, "author_username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-27T10:11:29.366693Z", "published_at": "2024-09-27T10:17:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.036856Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-27T10:17:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T03:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2062-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2064-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-12T03:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-27T10:17:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3422, "name": "David Mathers' Community", "type": "community", "slug": "arb", "description": "I am interested in questions around the future of AI, global catastrophic risks, and effective altruism. I'm a researcher for the consultancy <a href=\"https://arbresearch.com/\">Arb</a>, who works mostly within the AI safety and forecasting spaces, as well as a professional forecaster. I'll probably focus mostly on AI questions here.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2_niu19eM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_4.09.50PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 196604, "username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3422, "name": "David Mathers' Community", "type": "community", "slug": "arb", "description": "I am interested in questions around the future of AI, global catastrophic risks, and effective altruism. I'm a researcher for the consultancy <a href=\"https://arbresearch.com/\">Arb</a>, who works mostly within the AI safety and forecasting spaces, as well as a professional forecaster. I'll probably focus mostly on AI questions here.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2_niu19eM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_4.09.50PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 196604, "username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28611, "title": "When will models hit 97.5% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)", "created_at": "2024-09-27T10:11:29.366693Z", "open_time": "2024-09-27T10:17:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-30T10:17:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-30T10:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2064-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-12T03:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-12T03:22:41.851163Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2062-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T03:22:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SWE-Bench is an AI model benchmark designed to test whether models can resolve real-world GitHub issues. Progress on this benchmark is a sign that models are becoming practically useful for coding. Note that this question uses the \"verified\" version of SWE-Bench, which has been cleaned up to remove some broken questions: https://openai.com/index/introducing-swe-benc…\n\nIf the leaderboard disappears, I will look for another one.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves yes when there is a model with a score equal to or above 97.5 on the SWE-Bench verified leaderboard here: https://www.swebench.com/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28611, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730096334.970211, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730096334.970211, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.49 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SWE-Bench is an AI model benchmark designed to test whether models can resolve real-world GitHub issues. 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Note that this question uses the \"verified\" version of SWE-Bench, which has been cleaned up to remove some broken questions: https://openai.com/index/introducing-swe-benc…\n\nIf the leaderboard disappears, I will look for another one." }, { "id": 28604, "title": "What percentage of the decade-average views that the program usually draws will the viewership of the American Music Awards hosted on October 4th, 2024 be?", "short_title": "AMA viewership?", "url_title": "AMA viewership?", "slug": "ama-viewership", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-26T22:21:58.839106Z", "published_at": "2024-09-26T22:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.573456Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-26T22:22:30.380857Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-03T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-03T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-10T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-26T22:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ] }, "question": { "id": 28604, "title": "What percentage of the decade-average views that the program usually draws will the viewership of the American Music Awards hosted on October 4th, 2024 be?", "created_at": "2024-09-26T22:21:58.839106Z", "open_time": "2024-09-26T22:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-26T22:25:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-26T22:25:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-10T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-10T22:01:57.341721Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-03T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-03T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The American Music Awards are having their 50th anniversary show in October! 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How many people will tune in?" }, { "id": 28603, "title": "What is the probability that the Bills will win over the Ravens in Sunday Night Football this week?", "short_title": "Will the Bills win?", "url_title": "Will the Bills win?", "slug": "will-the-bills-win", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-26T22:16:09.914612Z", "published_at": "2024-09-26T22:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.668762Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-26T22:16:40.971561Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-28T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-28T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-10T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T03:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-26T22:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ] }, "question": { "id": 28603, "title": "What is the probability that the Bills will win over the Ravens in Sunday Night Football this week?", "created_at": "2024-09-26T22:16:09.914612Z", "open_time": "2024-09-26T22:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-26T22:20:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-26T22:20:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-10T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T03:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-08T03:47:37.201455Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-28T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-28T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NFL game. 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Look into the moneyline maybe :)" }, { "id": 28601, "title": "What is the probability that Donald Trump will accept the CNN presidential debate invitation for October 23 between now and next meeting (10/10)?", "short_title": "Will Donald Debate?", "url_title": "Will Donald Debate?", "slug": "will-donald-debate", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-26T22:10:54.879364Z", "published_at": "2024-09-26T22:11:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.730093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-26T22:11:02.806644Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-10T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-26T22:11:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": 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