Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2040
{ "count": 5958, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2060", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2020", "results": [ { "id": 28598, "title": "What is the probability that the weather in Warwick, RI will fall below 43 degrees F at any point between now and next meeting (10/10)?", "short_title": "Will weather in Warwick be cold", "url_title": "Will weather in Warwick be cold", "slug": "will-weather-in-warwick-be-cold", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-26T21:59:55.955791Z", "published_at": "2024-09-26T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.013237Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-26T22:00:12.743359Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-10T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-10T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-10T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-26T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ] }, "question": { "id": 28598, "title": "What is the probability that the weather in Warwick, RI will fall below 43 degrees F at any point between now and next meeting (10/10)?", "created_at": "2024-09-26T21:59:55.955791Z", "open_time": "2024-09-26T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-29T03:23:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-29T03:23:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-10T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-10T22:02:31.080331Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-10T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-10T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ri/warwick/KPVD", "resolution_criteria": "Resolved on date using info from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ri/warwick/KPVD", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28598, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728423444.551755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728423444.551755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.18348885676070484 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.20380305925474834, 0.03130111324493288, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2115158975904898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 1.6480859350664248, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 1.6912702570651463, 1.0, 0.44795123974521456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6258396432660346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3599836788759113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 72.63292474940457, "peer_score": 20.728565252456836, "coverage": 0.9980711629104257, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9980711629104257, "spot_peer_score": 23.030790783084072, "baseline_archived_score": 72.63292474940457, "peer_archived_score": 20.728565252456836, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.030790783084072 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286938.346024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286938.346024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9823640744613559, 0.01763592553864412 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ri/warwick/KPVD" }, { "id": 28597, "title": "What is the probability that the New York Liberty will win over the Las Vegas Aces in Game 3 of their playoff semifinals matchup on October 4, 2024?", "short_title": "Will New York Liberty beat the Las Vegas Aces", "url_title": "Will New York Liberty beat the Las Vegas Aces", "slug": "will-new-york-liberty-beat-the-las-vegas-aces", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-26T21:56:24.596160Z", "published_at": "2024-09-26T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.413716Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-26T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-05T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T03:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-26T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 24, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ] }, "question": { "id": 28597, "title": "What is the probability that the New York Liberty will win over the Las Vegas Aces in Game 3 of their playoff semifinals matchup on October 4, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-26T21:56:24.596160Z", "open_time": "2024-09-26T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-27T16:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-27T16:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-05T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T03:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-08T03:48:57.085494Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-04T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-04T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Search it up :D", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved according to ESPN scores on October 5, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28597, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727892736.496587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.662 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727892736.496587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.662 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33799999999999997, 0.662 ], "means": [ 0.6133297705247898 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0271947810451278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.0, 1.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.284882758777943, 0.0, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.9171555006079537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.441563953841307 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -65.2926998045246, "peer_score": 8.442993162446255, "coverage": 0.9967301082226537, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9967301082226537, "spot_peer_score": 5.246610671530621, "baseline_archived_score": -65.2926998045246, "peer_archived_score": 8.442993162446255, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.246610671530621 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728029295.371774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728029295.371774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.426977467741806, 0.573022532258194 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Search it up :D" }, { "id": 28574, "title": "Will Ju Wenjun win the Women's World Chess Championship 2025?", "short_title": "Women's World Chess Champion 2025?", "url_title": "Women's World Chess Champion 2025?", "slug": "womens-world-chess-champion-2025", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-26T16:08:10.347463Z", "published_at": "2024-09-28T15:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.812185Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-28T15:54:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-16T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-16T09:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-28T15:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28574, "title": "Will Ju Wenjun win the Women's World Chess Championship 2025?", "created_at": "2024-09-26T16:08:10.347463Z", "open_time": "2024-09-28T15:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-01T15:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-01T15:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-16T09:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-12T11:30:19.864087Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-16T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2025 Women’s World Chess Championship will feature a match between two Chinese players: [Ju Wenjun](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ju_Wenjun), the defending Women’s World Chess Champion, and [Tan Zhongyi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tan_Zhongyi), who won the [2024 FIDE Women’s Candidates Tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Candidates_Tournament_2024).\n\nJu and Tan have faced each other multiple times in high-level competition, most prominently in the [2018 Women's World Chess Championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_World_Chess_Championship_2018_(May)). As of [September 2024](https://2700chess.com/women), Ju Wenjun is the top-rated active female player (as Hou Yifan is considered semi-retired from top-level chess) with an Elo rating of approximately 2563, while Tan Zhongyi is the 3rd highest rated player with an Elo of 2551. \n\nIf the format remains unchanged from its previous iteration, the match will consist of 12 classical games, with tiebreakers if needed. The time control will be 90 minutes for the first 40 moves, followed by 30 minutes for the remainder of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting from move 1. The first player to score 6.5/12 points will be declared the champion. Wins count as 1 point, draws as 0.5, and losses as 0.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ju Wenjun is the winner of the 2025 Women's World Chess Championship, according to an official announcement by FIDE.", "fine_print": "If the Women's World Chess Championship is not held in 2025 this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 28574, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744096998.897669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744096998.897669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6271365835491137 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.2315861692124475, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2784576567694637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.45440271226787, "peer_score": 3.386410504428804, "coverage": 0.6501093529566628, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99936799222215, "spot_peer_score": -10.604103265100541, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 18.45440271226787, "peer_archived_score": 3.386410504428804, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.604103265100541, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286903.725449, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286903.725449, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4635316955471046, 0.5364683044528954 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2025 Women’s World Chess Championship will feature a match between two Chinese players: [Ju Wenjun](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ju_Wenjun), the defending Women’s World Chess Champion, and [Tan Zhongyi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tan_Zhongyi), who won the [2024 FIDE Women’s Candidates Tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Candidates_Tournament_2024).\n\nJu and Tan have faced each other multiple times in high-level competition, most prominently in the [2018 Women's World Chess Championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_World_Chess_Championship_2018_(May)). As of [September 2024](https://2700chess.com/women), Ju Wenjun is the top-rated active female player (as Hou Yifan is considered semi-retired from top-level chess) with an Elo rating of approximately 2563, while Tan Zhongyi is the 3rd highest rated player with an Elo of 2551. \n\nIf the format remains unchanged from its previous iteration, the match will consist of 12 classical games, with tiebreakers if needed. The time control will be 90 minutes for the first 40 moves, followed by 30 minutes for the remainder of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting from move 1. The first player to score 6.5/12 points will be declared the champion. Wins count as 1 point, draws as 0.5, and losses as 0." }, { "id": 28570, "title": "Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF?", "short_title": "Global recession by 2026 according to IMF?", "url_title": "Global recession by 2026 according to IMF?", "slug": "global-recession-by-2026-according-to-imf", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [ { "id": 198325, "username": "anna.k.hennig" }, { "id": 202409, "username": "EdwardStoppard" }, { "id": 161413, "username": "Emi" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-26T12:32:16.217010Z", "published_at": "2024-10-02T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.969659Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-02T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-02T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28570, "title": "Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF?", "created_at": "2024-09-26T12:32:16.217010Z", "open_time": "2024-10-02T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-05T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-05T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will there be a global recession in 2024?\n\nA global recession refers to a period of economic decline that affects multiple countries simultaneously. In the past, these synchronized downturns have been caused by a particular world event or economic shock transmitted through the global markets. \n\nThe [Wall Street Crash of 1929](https://www.britannica.com/event/stock-market-crash-of-1929), for example, led directly to the worldwide Great Depression of the 1930s. Similarly, and more recently, the bursting of the American housing bubble, coupled with excessive risk-taking by major financial institutions and predatory lending in the form of subprime mortgages, led to the [global financial crisis in 2007-2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932008_financial_crisis). The catalyst for a global recession, however, does not necessarily need to be economic in nature. The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, as an illustration, and the measures used to fight it (principally lockdowns) resulted in the [COVID-19 recession](https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2022/brief/chapter-1-introduction-the-economic-impacts-of-the-covid-19-crisis) and a collapse in global economic activity.\n\nConditions in the last few years since the pandemic have led some to speculate whether a new global recession is on the horizon. It can be argued that the world has been fortunate to avoid another global economic contraction so far, given such concurrent economic shocks as the [2021–2023 inflation surge](https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2024/02/05/the-verdict-on-the-2021-2023-inflation--transitory-on-all-counts/), the [global supply chain crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932023_global_supply_chain_crisis), the [global energy crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_energy_crisis_(2021%E2%80%932023)), and the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://www.economicsobservatory.com/ukraine-whats-the-global-economic-impact-of-russias-invasion). \n\nBut with the Ukraine war ongoing, the [Middle East at the point of crisis](https://www.npr.org/series/1205445976/middle-east-crisis), and a tumultuous election approaching in the United States that may have dramatic effects on U.S. economic and foreign policy, some, such as [J.P. Morgan](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/recession-probability), now believe that the likelihood of an economic downturn has increased. Others, by contrast, like IMF economist [Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/risk-of-a-global-recession-is-minimal-imf-economist-says.html) and [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/global-economic-outlook-january-2024.html), have stated that the global economy has “weathered the storm” and is past the period of greatest jeopardy.\n\nThe unfolding debate between the two sides calls into question the future health of the global economy and how it will fare by the end of 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after September 28, 2024 and before January 1, 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declares a new global recession.\n\nIf this doesn't happen before 2026, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If such a declaration takes place, it is likely to happen either in a press briefing or in IMF's [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO).\n\nFor this question to resolve as **Yes** the word \"recession\" has to be used. Some examples of quotes that would resolve the question as **Yes** had they been stated in the relevant period can be found below. From the [April 2009 World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2016/12/31/World-Economic-Outlook-April-2009-Crisis-and-Recovery-22575):\n\n>the current projections suggest that the 2009 global recession would be by far the deepest recession in five decades\n\n\n\n>The current recession is following a pattern similar to that observed in [the global recessions of 1975, 1982, and 1991], though the contractions in most indicators are much sharper this time.\n>Although the four global recessions [...]\n\nFrom the [March 27, 2020 press briefing](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/03/27/sp032720-opening-remarks-at-press-briefing-following-imfc-conference-call):\n\n>It is now clear that we have entered a recession", "post_id": 28570, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753633742.231, "end_time": 1758269084.839, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753633742.231, "end_time": 1758269084.839, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4405073276556358 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07076713278408464, 0.04583246801941605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03821101458532159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6796057925985695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.019171231405209, 0.0, 0.7241569329010089, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3100692958543947, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6352628679399391, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0302946035234324, 0.0, 0.2316984938053177, 0.08397709005035515, 0.7773919346032045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19976240866306647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1225849979999332, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.09622124116773499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06290448966866473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06329342166735366 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289200.825973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289200.825973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8785108940543793, 0.1214891059456207 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 147, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will there be a global recession in 2024?\n\nA global recession refers to a period of economic decline that affects multiple countries simultaneously. In the past, these synchronized downturns have been caused by a particular world event or economic shock transmitted through the global markets. \n\nThe [Wall Street Crash of 1929](https://www.britannica.com/event/stock-market-crash-of-1929), for example, led directly to the worldwide Great Depression of the 1930s. Similarly, and more recently, the bursting of the American housing bubble, coupled with excessive risk-taking by major financial institutions and predatory lending in the form of subprime mortgages, led to the [global financial crisis in 2007-2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932008_financial_crisis). The catalyst for a global recession, however, does not necessarily need to be economic in nature. The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, as an illustration, and the measures used to fight it (principally lockdowns) resulted in the [COVID-19 recession](https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2022/brief/chapter-1-introduction-the-economic-impacts-of-the-covid-19-crisis) and a collapse in global economic activity.\n\nConditions in the last few years since the pandemic have led some to speculate whether a new global recession is on the horizon. It can be argued that the world has been fortunate to avoid another global economic contraction so far, given such concurrent economic shocks as the [2021–2023 inflation surge](https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2024/02/05/the-verdict-on-the-2021-2023-inflation--transitory-on-all-counts/), the [global supply chain crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932023_global_supply_chain_crisis), the [global energy crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_energy_crisis_(2021%E2%80%932023)), and the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://www.economicsobservatory.com/ukraine-whats-the-global-economic-impact-of-russias-invasion). \n\nBut with the Ukraine war ongoing, the [Middle East at the point of crisis](https://www.npr.org/series/1205445976/middle-east-crisis), and a tumultuous election approaching in the United States that may have dramatic effects on U.S. economic and foreign policy, some, such as [J.P. Morgan](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/recession-probability), now believe that the likelihood of an economic downturn has increased. Others, by contrast, like IMF economist [Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/risk-of-a-global-recession-is-minimal-imf-economist-says.html) and [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/global-economic-outlook-january-2024.html), have stated that the global economy has “weathered the storm” and is past the period of greatest jeopardy.\n\nThe unfolding debate between the two sides calls into question the future health of the global economy and how it will fare by the end of 2024." }, { "id": 28566, "title": "Will there be an ocean liner on an Atlantic route in 2035?", "short_title": "Ocean Liner Covering Atlantic in 2035", "url_title": "Ocean Liner Covering Atlantic in 2035", "slug": "ocean-liner-covering-atlantic-in-2035", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-26T06:34:10.921507Z", "published_at": "2024-10-01T18:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T22:44:33.148105Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-01T18:46:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-06-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-06-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-01T18:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28566, "title": "Will there be an ocean liner on an Atlantic route in 2035?", "created_at": "2024-09-26T06:34:10.921507Z", "open_time": "2024-10-01T18:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-04T18:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-04T18:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-06-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-06-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-06-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_liner),\n\n> An ocean liner is a type of passenger ship primarily used for transportation across seas or oceans. [...] The category does not include ferries or other vessels engaged in short-sea trading, nor dedicated cruise ships where the voyage itself, and not transportation, is the primary purpose of the trip.\n\nThe definition is a bit of a diagnosis-by-exclusion, but the primary difference is the regular schedule and being built to be able to handle most weather conditions encountered on a regular schedule:\n\n> Though ocean liners share certain similarities with cruise ships, they must be able to travel between continents from point A to point B on a fixed schedule, so must be faster and built to withstand the rough seas and adverse conditions encountered on long voyages across the open ocean.\n\nOne of the most well-known ocean liners was probably RMS Titanic.\n\nToday, [there is only one active ocean liner: RMS Queen Mary 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Mary_2).\n\n> She has served as the flagship of the Cunard Line since January 2004 [...] [and] sails regular transatlantic crossings between Southampton and New York City.\n\nOcean liners are not really constructed very often:\n\n> [Queen Mary 2] was constructed to replace the ageing Queen Elizabeth 2, which was the Cunard flagship from 1969 to 2004 and the last major ocean liner built before Queen Mary 2.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is at least one active ocean liner that makes scheduled crossings of the Atlantic on June 1, 2035, according to credible sources or [the Wikipedia list of ocean liners](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ocean_liners).\n\nOtherwise, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "In cases of ambiguity as to whether a ship counts as an \"ocean liner\", any ship that fulfiills the following criteria will resolve this question as **Yes**:\n\n- Accepts passengers from the public against pay\n\n- Crosses the Atlantic with said passengers\n\n- Has done this or plans to do this (as of June 1, 2035) at least 12 times in any 12-month period between June 1, 2034 and June 1, 2036, with at least one such crossing between April 1 and August 1, 2035.\n\nSites as [CruiseMapper](https://www.cruisemapper.com/ships/Queen-Mary-2-721) maybe be used to resolve this question.", "post_id": 28566, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757210451.690138, "end_time": 1758424996.561241, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757210451.690138, "end_time": 1758424996.561241, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8137634500360571 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6878737286144148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5567826214694478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24539895193437372, 1.6905024447474055, 0.0, 0.651209356262448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289051.722827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289051.722827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5838781757618348, 0.4161218242381652 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_liner),\n\n> An ocean liner is a type of passenger ship primarily used for transportation across seas or oceans. [...] The category does not include ferries or other vessels engaged in short-sea trading, nor dedicated cruise ships where the voyage itself, and not transportation, is the primary purpose of the trip.\n\nThe definition is a bit of a diagnosis-by-exclusion, but the primary difference is the regular schedule and being built to be able to handle most weather conditions encountered on a regular schedule:\n\n> Though ocean liners share certain similarities with cruise ships, they must be able to travel between continents from point A to point B on a fixed schedule, so must be faster and built to withstand the rough seas and adverse conditions encountered on long voyages across the open ocean.\n\nOne of the most well-known ocean liners was probably RMS Titanic.\n\nToday, [there is only one active ocean liner: RMS Queen Mary 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Mary_2).\n\n> She has served as the flagship of the Cunard Line since January 2004 [...] [and] sails regular transatlantic crossings between Southampton and New York City.\n\nOcean liners are not really constructed very often:\n\n> [Queen Mary 2] was constructed to replace the ageing Queen Elizabeth 2, which was the Cunard flagship from 1969 to 2004 and the last major ocean liner built before Queen Mary 2." }, { "id": 28564, "title": "A porcentagem de veículos elétricos plug-in (BEV e PHEV) chegará a 5% do número total de vendas em 2025?", "short_title": "Veículos Elétricos", "url_title": "Veículos Elétricos", "slug": "veiculos-eletricos", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-26T00:19:48.988647Z", "published_at": "2024-09-26T00:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.951025Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-26T00:20:01Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-26T00:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28564, "title": "A porcentagem de veículos elétricos plug-in (BEV e PHEV) chegará a 5% do número total de vendas em 2025?", "created_at": "2024-09-26T00:19:48.988647Z", "open_time": "2024-09-26T00:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-29T00:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-29T00:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Associação Brasileira do Veículo Elétrico](https://abve.org.br/).\n\n[Veículos plug-in atingem 70% dos eletrificados em abril e batem novo recorde](https://abve.org.br/veiculos-plug-in-chegam-a-70-dos-eletrificados-em-abril-e-batem-novo-recorde/)\n\n[Carros elétricos terão preços mais acessíveis no Brasil? Entenda os desafios e perspectivas do setor (2023)](https://g1.globo.com/carros/noticia/2023/11/23/carros-eletricos-entenda-os-desafios-e-perspectivas-do-setor.ghtml)\n\n[Carros elétricos e híbridos batem recorde de vendas no Brasil em janeiro (2024)](https://insideevs.uol.com.br/news/707630/mercado-carros-eletricos-brasil-janeiro2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "Dados da Associação Brasileira do Veículo Elétrico", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28564, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757013359.099459, "end_time": 1761006358.986, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.685 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757013359.099459, "end_time": 1761006358.986, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.685 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.315, 0.685 ], "means": [ 0.685 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Associação Brasileira do Veículo Elétrico](https://abve.org.br/).\n\n[Veículos plug-in atingem 70% dos eletrificados em abril e batem novo recorde](https://abve.org.br/veiculos-plug-in-chegam-a-70-dos-eletrificados-em-abril-e-batem-novo-recorde/)\n\n[Carros elétricos terão preços mais acessíveis no Brasil? Entenda os desafios e perspectivas do setor (2023)](https://g1.globo.com/carros/noticia/2023/11/23/carros-eletricos-entenda-os-desafios-e-perspectivas-do-setor.ghtml)\n\n[Carros elétricos e híbridos batem recorde de vendas no Brasil em janeiro (2024)](https://insideevs.uol.com.br/news/707630/mercado-carros-eletricos-brasil-janeiro2024/)" }, { "id": 28561, "title": "O Brasil terá carros autônomos até 2026?", "short_title": "Carros Autônomos", "url_title": "Carros Autônomos", "slug": "carros-autonomos", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-25T23:25:32.048956Z", "published_at": "2024-09-25T23:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.630145Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-25T23:25:53.016098Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-25T23:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28561, "title": "O Brasil terá carros autônomos até 2026?", "created_at": "2024-09-25T23:25:32.048956Z", "open_time": "2024-09-25T23:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-28T23:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-28T23:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Os carros autônomos já são uma realidade mundial, esta tecnologia estará disponível no Brasil?\n\n[Carro autônomo - Montadoras e empresas de tecnologia disputam corrida para dispensar o motorista. Mas não será nada simples](https://www.uol.com.br/carros/reportagens-especiais/transporte-do-futuro---carro-autonomo/0)\n\n[Carros autônomos já existem, mas ainda enfrentam dificuldades nas ruas](https://mobilidade.estadao.com.br/entender/carros-autonomos-nas-ruas/)\n\n[Projeto em análise na Câmara regulamenta carros autônomos no Brasil - 2023](https://www.camara.leg.br/noticias/977586-projeto-em-analise-na-camara-regulamenta-carros-autonomos-no-brasil/).", "resolution_criteria": "Lançamento de um carro com a tecnologia em território nacional.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28561, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757074523.375296, "end_time": 1758236119.96557, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757074523.375296, "end_time": 1758236119.96557, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1427451907535611 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.445768945893076, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Os carros autônomos já são uma realidade mundial, esta tecnologia estará disponível no Brasil?\n\n[Carro autônomo - Montadoras e empresas de tecnologia disputam corrida para dispensar o motorista. Mas não será nada simples](https://www.uol.com.br/carros/reportagens-especiais/transporte-do-futuro---carro-autonomo/0)\n\n[Carros autônomos já existem, mas ainda enfrentam dificuldades nas ruas](https://mobilidade.estadao.com.br/entender/carros-autonomos-nas-ruas/)\n\n[Projeto em análise na Câmara regulamenta carros autônomos no Brasil - 2023](https://www.camara.leg.br/noticias/977586-projeto-em-analise-na-camara-regulamenta-carros-autonomos-no-brasil/)." }, { "id": 28560, "title": "A maconha será legalizada no Brasil até 2030?", "short_title": "Legalização da Maconha", "url_title": "Legalização da Maconha", "slug": "legalizacao-da-maconha", "author_id": 211372, "author_username": "lbarbosa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-25T23:19:55.619535Z", "published_at": "2024-09-25T23:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.641963Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-25T23:20:36.965847Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-25T23:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3643, "name": "Comunidade de Previsões Brasil", "type": "community", "slug": "Brasil", "description": "\r\n\r\nBem-vindo à página da comunidade para perguntas de previsão sobre o futuro do Brasil. Se você tem interesse em testar suas habilidades preditivas e competir por R\\$ 1.500 em prêmios no Concurso de Previsões Brasil Q1, visite a [**página do concurso aqui**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/Brasil/).\r\n\r\n[Quer aprender mais sobre previsões e como elas podem ser úteis? →](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\n[Para mais informações sobre como funciona a plataforma, consulte nosso FAQ → (Para ler em português, clique no seletor de idioma no canto superior direito e escolha 'Português')](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n\r\nProcurando concursos de previsões para participar?\r\n\r\n* **Torneio Global Bridgewater**\r\n **Agora aberto para participantes de todo o mundo:** Registre-se para fazer previsões, explorar oportunidades de carreira na Bridgewater Associates e concorrer a \\$25k em prêmios!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **Série Benchmark de Previsões IA Q1 (2025)**\r\n Comparando o estado da arte em previsões de IA com os melhores previsores humanos em questões do mundo real. Use nossos templates para construir um bot de previsão e concorra a \\$30k!\r\n [Saiba mais →](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)", "order": 4, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/71vcKt-PbvL._AC_UF10001000_QL80_.jpg", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png", "followers_count": 46, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28560, "title": "A maconha será legalizada no Brasil até 2030?", "created_at": "2024-09-25T23:19:55.619535Z", "open_time": "2024-09-25T23:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-25T23:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-25T23:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Em 2024, o Supremo Tribunal Federal descriminalizou o porte de maconha para consumo próprio, mas a substância ainda continua ilegal no país. \n[STF descriminaliza porte de maconha para uso pessoal](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/justica/noticia/2024-06/stf-descriminaliza-porte-de-maconha-para-uso-pessoal)\n\nMas este debate vem de longa data:\n[Comissão aprova proposta para legalizar no Brasil o cultivo de Cannabis sativa para fins medicinais - 2021](https://www.camara.leg.br/noticias/769630-COMISSAO-APROVA-PROPOSTA-PARA-LEGALIZAR-NO-BRASIL-O-CULTIVO-DE-CANNABIS-SATIVA-PARA-FINS-MEDICINAIS)\n\n[Maconha: o que dizem parlamentares contra e a favor da descriminalização do porte para uso pessoal](https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/06/27/maconha-o-que-dizem-parlamentares-contra-e-a-favor-da-descriminalizacao-do-porte-para-uso-pessoal.ghtml).", "resolution_criteria": "Aprovação de lei legalizando o uso e a comercialização da Maconha no Brasil.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28560, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758220477.826946, "end_time": 1758271163.076154, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758220477.826946, "end_time": 1758271163.076154, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.19055575094118654 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2020226866237729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.7394682331392083, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Em 2024, o Supremo Tribunal Federal descriminalizou o porte de maconha para consumo próprio, mas a substância ainda continua ilegal no país. \n[STF descriminaliza porte de maconha para uso pessoal](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/justica/noticia/2024-06/stf-descriminaliza-porte-de-maconha-para-uso-pessoal)\n\nMas este debate vem de longa data:\n[Comissão aprova proposta para legalizar no Brasil o cultivo de Cannabis sativa para fins medicinais - 2021](https://www.camara.leg.br/noticias/769630-COMISSAO-APROVA-PROPOSTA-PARA-LEGALIZAR-NO-BRASIL-O-CULTIVO-DE-CANNABIS-SATIVA-PARA-FINS-MEDICINAIS)\n\n[Maconha: o que dizem parlamentares contra e a favor da descriminalização do porte para uso pessoal](https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/06/27/maconha-o-que-dizem-parlamentares-contra-e-a-favor-da-descriminalizacao-do-porte-para-uso-pessoal.ghtml)." }, { "id": 28537, "title": "Will the Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order become an independent, recognised country before 2035?", "short_title": "Will there be a Bektashi state before 2035?", "url_title": "Will there be a Bektashi state before 2035?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-bektashi-state-before-2035", "author_id": 168828, "author_username": "YellowSpectacular", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-24T11:32:03.730300Z", "published_at": "2024-09-26T15:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.247377Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-26T15:44:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-11-30T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-26T15:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28537, "title": "Will the Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order become an independent, recognised country before 2035?", "created_at": "2024-09-24T11:32:03.730300Z", "open_time": "2024-09-26T15:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-29T15:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-29T15:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-11-30T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-11-30T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Bektashi order](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bektashi_Order), is an Islamic Sufi mystic order founded, according to their own traditions, by Haji Bektash Veli of Khorasan. It acquired definitive form in the 16th century in Anatolia (Turkey) and spread to the Ottoman Balkans, particularly Albania. In the 20th century, the Bektashis moved their headquarters to Tirana from Turkey after Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founding father of the Turkish Republic, shut down their operations.\n\nIn 2024, the Prime minister of Albania, Edi Rama, and the Bektashi Dedebabate, Baba Mondi, announced the creation of a Vatican-like state for the Bektashi order, that would be based in Tirana, the capital of Albania. The territory of the proposed new Islamic state is a compound in a low-rent residential district of eastern Tirana, just a quarter of the size of Vatican City. Baba Mondi has [argued](https://shqiptarja.com/lajm/exclusive-interview-with-the-head-father-of-the-bektashi-order-a-new-sovereign-state-for-peace-and-tolerance-english-version) that the existence of such a state could be useful in the confrontation against religious extremism, especially within a muslim context, as a counterbalance to Iran.\n\nAs of September 21, 2024, this potential country still [requires approval](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/21/world/europe/albania-tirana-muslim-state-bektashi.html) from the Albanian parliament, plus more planning in general.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 2035, the Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order has been declared independent by the Albanian government and has been officially recognised by at least one more UN member besides Albania, according to credible sources.\n\nIf the above does not happen before 2035 or if there is an official announcement by the Albanian government that the plan has been scrapped, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28537, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756778936.611477, "end_time": 1759539638.074383, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756778936.611477, "end_time": 1759539638.074383, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.45764731940263387 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8452545557477291, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289363.728571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289363.728571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7634016117930518, 0.23659838820694826 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Bektashi order](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bektashi_Order), is an Islamic Sufi mystic order founded, according to their own traditions, by Haji Bektash Veli of Khorasan. It acquired definitive form in the 16th century in Anatolia (Turkey) and spread to the Ottoman Balkans, particularly Albania. In the 20th century, the Bektashis moved their headquarters to Tirana from Turkey after Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founding father of the Turkish Republic, shut down their operations.\n\nIn 2024, the Prime minister of Albania, Edi Rama, and the Bektashi Dedebabate, Baba Mondi, announced the creation of a Vatican-like state for the Bektashi order, that would be based in Tirana, the capital of Albania. The territory of the proposed new Islamic state is a compound in a low-rent residential district of eastern Tirana, just a quarter of the size of Vatican City. Baba Mondi has [argued](https://shqiptarja.com/lajm/exclusive-interview-with-the-head-father-of-the-bektashi-order-a-new-sovereign-state-for-peace-and-tolerance-english-version) that the existence of such a state could be useful in the confrontation against religious extremism, especially within a muslim context, as a counterbalance to Iran.\n\nAs of September 21, 2024, this potential country still [requires approval](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/21/world/europe/albania-tirana-muslim-state-bektashi.html) from the Albanian parliament, plus more planning in general." }, { "id": 28395, "title": "Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?", "short_title": "Will WHO prequalify moxidectin by 2027?", "url_title": "Will WHO prequalify moxidectin by 2027?", "slug": "will-who-prequalify-moxidectin-by-2027", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-21T00:45:04.568292Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T16:16:09.182315Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T09:43:54.944379Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-21T16:16:09.182312Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32513, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell Comment Prize", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell-comment-prize", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-10-18T21:10:37.173928Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:03.839687Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:26.126366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:26.126366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28395, "title": "Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?", "created_at": "2024-09-21T00:45:04.568292Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n\nAccording to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n\n>Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n\nAs of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n\nHowever, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n\nIn 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n\nHowever, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n\nAccording to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n\n>Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n\n>In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n\nSee Also:\n\n- Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n- [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n- Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds moxidectin to its prequalification (PQ) list, according to official WHO announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Note that this question resolves **Yes** only if moxidectin achieves PQ approval for the treatment of onchocerciasis. If moxidectin achieves PQ approval for another indication, but not onchocerciasis, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nAlthough Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is developing moxidectin for potential WHO PQ, this question resolves regardless of which entity achieves the PQ.", "post_id": 28395, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757844844.073341, "end_time": 1758577277.894881, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757844844.073341, "end_time": 1758577277.894881, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8839382937229736 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5032436533897164, 1.0, 0.9574955587185582, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21019456889105456, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.5464272503001606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n\nAccording to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n\n>Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n\nAs of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n\nHowever, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n\nIn 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n\nHowever, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n\nAccording to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n\n>Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n\n>In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n\nSee Also:\n\n- Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n- [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n- Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US." }, { "id": 28374, "title": "Will GiveWell recommend grants of more than $5 million to support delivering chlorine and/or oral rehydration solution and zinc along with vaccine outreach services?", "short_title": "GiveWell grants of >$5M → chlorine/ORS/zinc?", "url_title": "GiveWell grants of >$5M → chlorine/ORS/zinc?", "slug": "givewell-grants-of-5m-chlorineorszinc", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-20T13:23:37.500788Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T16:16:25.256174Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:53:11.689594Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-21T16:16:25.256172Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:26.126366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:26.126366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28374, "title": "Will GiveWell recommend grants of more than $5 million to support delivering chlorine and/or oral rehydration solution and zinc along with vaccine outreach services?", "created_at": "2024-09-20T13:23:37.500788Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2024, GiveWell made a [grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024) to Wageningen University to add delivery of chlorine, for disinfecting drinking water, and oral rehydration solution (ORS) and zinc, a treatment for diarrhea, to a bundle of health services that is being delivered door-to-door in Sierra Leone as part of a cluster-randomized controlled trial. \n\nGiveWell [estimates](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#Summary) that these two commodities have the potential to create a high impact per dollar spent:\n\n>Chlorine and ORS/zinc are low cost and have the potential to prevent a meaningful share of the large number of deaths from diarrhea each year in low- and middle-income countries. (More in our reports on [water quality interventions](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/water-quality-interventions) and [ORS/zinc](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/oral-rehydration-solution-zinc).) GiveWell is considering supporting programs that deliver vaccines to communities far from public health facilities, as one strategy to increase vaccination coverage in areas with high vaccine-preventable disease burdens. Chlorine and ORS/zinc, if usage rates are reasonably high, have the potential to increase the cost-effectiveness of such programs. \n\nThe current study is the first of what may be more to come:\n\n>GiveWell made this grant mainly to increase the amount of RCT evidence available on how much free, household-level provision of chlorine and ORS/zinc increases usage of those products, particularly when delivered household-to-household in remote communities. ... [The study's results are] expected to add meaningfully to that evidence base and inform a significant amount of future GiveWell grantmaking.\n\nThe novelty of the distribution model may be an advantage: \n\n>The distribution model in this study differs from that of previous studies we have seen in that the commodities are being distributed as part of a bundle with other health services, and distribution is focused on remote communities in particular. We think results from this model may be informative despite existing evidence on household-to-household distribution of ORS/zinc.\n\nGiveWell also [believes](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/oral-rehydration-solution-zinc) that there are likely substantial opportunities for funding ORS/zinc distribution in areas with high diarrhea-related mortality, based on conversations with organizations working in child health programs. \n\nGiveWell predicts with 50% confidence that it will make more than $5 million in grants for chlorine and/or ORS/zinc distribution along with vaccine outreach services before 2028.\n\nIts [grant page](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024) for the Sierra Leone study points out that there may be limitations to finding good funding opportunities, such as implementation challenges in carrying out the intervention at scale, and a possibility that the information learned in this study may not be as helpful as they think in resolving our questions about programs like this.\n\nFor other forecasts that may inform this one please see these Metaculus questions:\n\n- [Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28373/will-orszinc-use-rise-in-sierra-leone-study/)\n\n- [Will the study of chlorine distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage by the recipients?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28371/will-chlorine-use-rise-in-sierra-leone-study/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, the total amount of implementation grants publicly recommended by GiveWell in support of delivering chlorine and/or oral rehydration solution and zinc along with vaccine outreach programs reaches more than $5,000,000. If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThe resolution source will be the sum of GiveWell's publicly-available grant decisions, which can be found in [this GiveWell Airtable database](https://airtable.com/appGuFtOIb1eodoBu/shr1EzngorAlEzziP/tblG72bMUu36lrWsr/viwJScgH8B6uRwJ8C?blocks=hide).", "fine_print": "This question looks at the total sum of grants meeting the criteria above; there is no requirement that an individual grant exceeds $5 million.\n\nA grant having a listed funder is immaterial to this question; this question is only concerned with amounts of grants recommended by GiveWell.\n\n\"Vaccine outreach\" refers to programs, typically done door-to-door or through mobile community vaccination drives in low- and middle-income countries in which: \n>health workers take vaccines to remote locations. Outreach is the last, critical link in the vaccine supply chain, and the locations selected to offer outreach directly impact the number of additional children that can be vaccinated. [[Source](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4899456/)]\n\nGrants for research do not count toward the $5 million. If a grant includes funding for both implementation and research, only the implementation portion of the grant budget will count toward the total needed for this question to resolve as **Yes**. Full budget details will be verified on GiveWell’s public writeup of each grant.", "post_id": 28374, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757289181.408048, "end_time": 1758786113.375687, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757289181.408048, "end_time": 1758786113.375687, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.8653814383117117 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In May 2024, GiveWell made a [grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024) to Wageningen University to add delivery of chlorine, for disinfecting drinking water, and oral rehydration solution (ORS) and zinc, a treatment for diarrhea, to a bundle of health services that is being delivered door-to-door in Sierra Leone as part of a cluster-randomized controlled trial. \n\nGiveWell [estimates](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#Summary) that these two commodities have the potential to create a high impact per dollar spent:\n\n>Chlorine and ORS/zinc are low cost and have the potential to prevent a meaningful share of the large number of deaths from diarrhea each year in low- and middle-income countries. (More in our reports on [water quality interventions](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/water-quality-interventions) and [ORS/zinc](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/oral-rehydration-solution-zinc).) GiveWell is considering supporting programs that deliver vaccines to communities far from public health facilities, as one strategy to increase vaccination coverage in areas with high vaccine-preventable disease burdens. Chlorine and ORS/zinc, if usage rates are reasonably high, have the potential to increase the cost-effectiveness of such programs. \n\nThe current study is the first of what may be more to come:\n\n>GiveWell made this grant mainly to increase the amount of RCT evidence available on how much free, household-level provision of chlorine and ORS/zinc increases usage of those products, particularly when delivered household-to-household in remote communities. ... [The study's results are] expected to add meaningfully to that evidence base and inform a significant amount of future GiveWell grantmaking.\n\nThe novelty of the distribution model may be an advantage: \n\n>The distribution model in this study differs from that of previous studies we have seen in that the commodities are being distributed as part of a bundle with other health services, and distribution is focused on remote communities in particular. We think results from this model may be informative despite existing evidence on household-to-household distribution of ORS/zinc.\n\nGiveWell also [believes](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/oral-rehydration-solution-zinc) that there are likely substantial opportunities for funding ORS/zinc distribution in areas with high diarrhea-related mortality, based on conversations with organizations working in child health programs. \n\nGiveWell predicts with 50% confidence that it will make more than $5 million in grants for chlorine and/or ORS/zinc distribution along with vaccine outreach services before 2028.\n\nIts [grant page](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024) for the Sierra Leone study points out that there may be limitations to finding good funding opportunities, such as implementation challenges in carrying out the intervention at scale, and a possibility that the information learned in this study may not be as helpful as they think in resolving our questions about programs like this.\n\nFor other forecasts that may inform this one please see these Metaculus questions:\n\n- [Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28373/will-orszinc-use-rise-in-sierra-leone-study/)\n\n- [Will the study of chlorine distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage by the recipients?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28371/will-chlorine-use-rise-in-sierra-leone-study/)" }, { "id": 28373, "title": "Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?", "short_title": "Will ORS/zinc use rise in Sierra Leone study?", "url_title": "Will ORS/zinc use rise in Sierra Leone study?", "slug": "will-orszinc-use-rise-in-sierra-leone-study", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-20T11:09:37.809769Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T16:16:37.629795Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:55:51.063896Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-21T16:16:37.629793Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32513, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell Comment Prize", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell-comment-prize", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-10-18T21:10:37.173928Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:03.839687Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:26.126366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:26.126366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28373, "title": "Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?", "created_at": "2024-09-20T11:09:37.809769Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024):\n\n>In May 2024, GiveWell made a $676,857 grant to Wageningen University to include additional components to a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of door-to-door health service delivery in remote communities in Sierra Leone. Non-GiveWell funding was already covering one round of service delivery and surveys, including the provision of routine childhood and HPV vaccines, vitamin A supplements, and deworming pills. This grant will add chlorine, for disinfecting drinking water, and oral rehydration solution (ORS) and zinc, for treating dehydration due to diarrhea, to the bundle of health services that will be delivered, and will support a second round of service delivery and surveys 3 months after the initial round.\n\nGiveWell estimates that reduction in diarrhea deaths via chlorine and ORS/zinc could raise the cost-effectiveness estimate of health commodities distribution programs like this one, if usage is high.\n\nThe study's design is as follows:\n\n>The study will be a cluster-randomized RCT in which the treatment communities receive household-to-household visits from health teams offering routine childhood and HPV vaccines to those who have not received all of the vaccines in the vaccination schedule. Households with children under the age of 5 will also be offered VAS, deworming pills, chlorine to treat drinking water, and ORS/zinc to treat future diarrhea episodes. Control communities will not receive any interventions. The health teams will also provide information on when young children are due for subsequent vaccines. The health teams will return after three months and provide the same bundle of services.\n\nResults of the study, if a statistically significant increase can be shown, will have implications for GiveWell’s future funding of similar interventions:\n>GiveWell is considering supporting programs that deliver vaccines to communities far from public health facilities, as one strategy to increase vaccination coverage in areas with high vaccine-preventable disease burdens. Chlorine and ORS/zinc, if usage rates are reasonably high, have the potential to increase the cost-effectiveness of such programs. (More [here](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#We_expect_this_study_to_have_a_decent_chance_of_affecting_our_future_grant_decisions).)\n\nIn the grant rationale, GiveWell explains some potential reasons the study might fail:\n\n- Recipients might be overwhelmed by the quantity of health services they’re receiving (childhood vaccines, HPV vaccines, VAS, deworming) and not process instructions on ORS/zinc usage. \n- Recipients might not use either ORS/zinc or chlorine if they view these commodities as substitutes for each other. \n- People in areas with very little contact with health systems might react to health information or commodities differently than people in other areas.\n\nIn its own internal forecasting, GiveWell predicts a 70% chance that the study measures a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage in the treatment group over the two rounds of distribution.\n\nFor more context on the commodity being distributed, see also the GiveWell report: [Oral Rehydration Solution (ORS) and Zinc\n](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/oral-rehydration-solution-zinc)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the GiveWell-funded [study](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024) by Wageningen University and its affiliated research team finds a statistically significant increase in oral rehydration solution (ORS) and zinc usage by the treatment group over two rounds of distribution of ORS/zinc to certain household clusters in Sierra Leone, compared with the control group. \n\nIf no statistically significant increase is found, whether because none occurred, there is insufficient data, or the study is not completed before January 1, 2026, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "According to the Yale Research Initiative on Innovation and Scale, the estimated minimal detectable effect for ORS/zinc usage is about 8 percentage points, ([pdf source](https://files.givewell.org/files/DWDA%202009/YRISE/Givewell_Research_Proposal_on_YRISE_vaccines.pdf), p. 11) and the estimated control group usage rate is 43% (Ibid., p. 19).\n\nIn assessing the statistical significance in the comparison between the control group and treatment group, please note that the p-value must be <0.05.\n\nIn case of reporting delays, resolution will wait up to two years after the end of the question period, until December 31, 2027, after which the question will be **annulled** if Metaculus determines there is insufficient evidence to support a **Yes** or **No** resolution.", "post_id": 28373, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758209188.25, "end_time": 1783835393.373, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758209188.25, "end_time": 1783835393.373, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.9071667867811873 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 1.2780408306060318, 0.0, 1.1741106786487336, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024):\n\n>In May 2024, GiveWell made a $676,857 grant to Wageningen University to include additional components to a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of door-to-door health service delivery in remote communities in Sierra Leone. Non-GiveWell funding was already covering one round of service delivery and surveys, including the provision of routine childhood and HPV vaccines, vitamin A supplements, and deworming pills. This grant will add chlorine, for disinfecting drinking water, and oral rehydration solution (ORS) and zinc, for treating dehydration due to diarrhea, to the bundle of health services that will be delivered, and will support a second round of service delivery and surveys 3 months after the initial round.\n\nGiveWell estimates that reduction in diarrhea deaths via chlorine and ORS/zinc could raise the cost-effectiveness estimate of health commodities distribution programs like this one, if usage is high.\n\nThe study's design is as follows:\n\n>The study will be a cluster-randomized RCT in which the treatment communities receive household-to-household visits from health teams offering routine childhood and HPV vaccines to those who have not received all of the vaccines in the vaccination schedule. Households with children under the age of 5 will also be offered VAS, deworming pills, chlorine to treat drinking water, and ORS/zinc to treat future diarrhea episodes. Control communities will not receive any interventions. The health teams will also provide information on when young children are due for subsequent vaccines. The health teams will return after three months and provide the same bundle of services.\n\nResults of the study, if a statistically significant increase can be shown, will have implications for GiveWell’s future funding of similar interventions:\n>GiveWell is considering supporting programs that deliver vaccines to communities far from public health facilities, as one strategy to increase vaccination coverage in areas with high vaccine-preventable disease burdens. Chlorine and ORS/zinc, if usage rates are reasonably high, have the potential to increase the cost-effectiveness of such programs. (More [here](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#We_expect_this_study_to_have_a_decent_chance_of_affecting_our_future_grant_decisions).)\n\nIn the grant rationale, GiveWell explains some potential reasons the study might fail:\n\n- Recipients might be overwhelmed by the quantity of health services they’re receiving (childhood vaccines, HPV vaccines, VAS, deworming) and not process instructions on ORS/zinc usage. \n- Recipients might not use either ORS/zinc or chlorine if they view these commodities as substitutes for each other. \n- People in areas with very little contact with health systems might react to health information or commodities differently than people in other areas.\n\nIn its own internal forecasting, GiveWell predicts a 70% chance that the study measures a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage in the treatment group over the two rounds of distribution.\n\nFor more context on the commodity being distributed, see also the GiveWell report: [Oral Rehydration Solution (ORS) and Zinc\n](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/oral-rehydration-solution-zinc)" }, { "id": 28371, "title": "Will the study of chlorine distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage by the recipients?", "short_title": "Will Chlorine use rise in Sierra Leone study?", "url_title": "Will Chlorine use rise in Sierra Leone study?", "slug": "will-chlorine-use-rise-in-sierra-leone-study", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-20T02:29:46.652219Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T16:16:47.698090Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:03.394959Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-21T16:16:47.698088Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32513, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell Comment Prize", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell-comment-prize", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-10-18T21:10:37.173928Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:03.839687Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:26.126366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:26.126366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28371, "title": "Will the study of chlorine distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage by the recipients?", "created_at": "2024-09-20T02:29:46.652219Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2024, GiveWell made a [grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#Internal_forecasts) to Wageningen University to add delivery of chlorine for disinfecting drinking water to a bundle of health services that is being delivered door-to-door in Sierra Leone, as part of a cluster-randomized controlled trial. This trial will study whether this distribution of chlorine will lead to a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage:\n\n>The study will be a cluster-randomized [randomized controlled trial] in which the treatment communities receive household-to-household visits from health teams offering routine childhood and HPV vaccines to those who have not received all of the vaccines in the vaccination schedule. Households with children under the age of 5 will also be offered VAS, deworming pills, chlorine to treat drinking water, and ORS/zinc to treat future diarrhea episodes [[1](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote1)] Control communities will not receive any interventions [[2](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote2)] The health teams will also provide information on when young children are due for subsequent vaccines [[3](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote3)] The health teams will return after three months and provide the same bundle of services [[4](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote4)].\n\n>Data on vaccination, VAS, and deworming uptake will be collected at the same time as delivery at both the initial visit and the 3-month follow-up visit, and simultaneously in control communities [[5](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote5)] At the 3-month visit, households will also be asked about use of chlorine and ORS/zinc, and the survey team will test household water for chlorine [[6](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote6)] Chlorine and ORS/zinc usage will be measured just at the 3-month visit, as unlike the other commodities, take-up of these products cannot be measured right away [[7](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote7)] \n\nAs of May 2024, the estimated usage of chlorine in these communities was about 8% and the study is powered to detect a minimum effect size of 5 percentage points. If that increase in chlorine use was achieved, it would mean at least 13% usage in the treatment group. GiveWell's internal forecasting offers a probability of 80% that the study will measure a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage in the treatment group, combined over two rounds of distribution.\n\nAccording to [the grant rationale](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#The_case_for_the_grant), GiveWell has high confidence in the research team and thinks they will be able to achieve the sample size needed to detect effects in chlorine usage. GiveWell’s reservations about the potential outcomes include:\n\n- Recipients may be overwhelmed by the quantity of health services being received in the door-to-door visits and may not process all the instructions.\n- Recipients may view oral rehydration solution and chlorine as substitutes for each other.\n- People in areas with very little contact with health authorities might not react to the health information in ways that researchers would hope.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the GiveWell-funded [study](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024) by Wageningen University and its affiliated research team finds a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage by the treatment group over two rounds of distribution of chlorine to certain household clusters in Sierra Leone, compared with the control group. \n\nIf no statistically significant increase is found, whether because none occurs, there is insufficient data, or the study is not completed before January 1, 2026, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "According to the Yale Research Initiative on Innovation and Scale, the minimal detectable effect for chlorine use is estimated to be very low (5 percentage points; [pdf source](https://files.givewell.org/files/DWDA%202009/YRISE/Givewell_Research_Proposal_on_YRISE_vaccines.pdf), p. 11) for this study, and the current estimate of usage is very low (8%; Ibid., p. 20).\n\nIn assessing the statistical significance in the comparison between the control group and treatment group, please note that the p-value must be < 0.05.\n\nIn case of reporting delays, resolution will wait up to two years after the end of the question period, until December 31, 2027, after which the question will be **annulled** if Metaculus determines there is insufficient evidence to support a **Yes** or **No** resolution.", "post_id": 28371, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758209367.258, "end_time": 1783572137.064, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758209367.258, "end_time": 1783572137.064, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12, 0.88 ], "means": [ 0.8764240737704849 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8337106037827644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.41674342759689076, 0.8423388801235393, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In May 2024, GiveWell made a [grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#Internal_forecasts) to Wageningen University to add delivery of chlorine for disinfecting drinking water to a bundle of health services that is being delivered door-to-door in Sierra Leone, as part of a cluster-randomized controlled trial. This trial will study whether this distribution of chlorine will lead to a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage:\n\n>The study will be a cluster-randomized [randomized controlled trial] in which the treatment communities receive household-to-household visits from health teams offering routine childhood and HPV vaccines to those who have not received all of the vaccines in the vaccination schedule. Households with children under the age of 5 will also be offered VAS, deworming pills, chlorine to treat drinking water, and ORS/zinc to treat future diarrhea episodes [[1](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote1)] Control communities will not receive any interventions [[2](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote2)] The health teams will also provide information on when young children are due for subsequent vaccines [[3](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote3)] The health teams will return after three months and provide the same bundle of services [[4](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote4)].\n\n>Data on vaccination, VAS, and deworming uptake will be collected at the same time as delivery at both the initial visit and the 3-month follow-up visit, and simultaneously in control communities [[5](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote5)] At the 3-month visit, households will also be asked about use of chlorine and ORS/zinc, and the survey team will test household water for chlorine [[6](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote6)] Chlorine and ORS/zinc usage will be measured just at the 3-month visit, as unlike the other commodities, take-up of these products cannot be measured right away [[7](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote7)] \n\nAs of May 2024, the estimated usage of chlorine in these communities was about 8% and the study is powered to detect a minimum effect size of 5 percentage points. If that increase in chlorine use was achieved, it would mean at least 13% usage in the treatment group. GiveWell's internal forecasting offers a probability of 80% that the study will measure a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage in the treatment group, combined over two rounds of distribution.\n\nAccording to [the grant rationale](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#The_case_for_the_grant), GiveWell has high confidence in the research team and thinks they will be able to achieve the sample size needed to detect effects in chlorine usage. GiveWell’s reservations about the potential outcomes include:\n\n- Recipients may be overwhelmed by the quantity of health services being received in the door-to-door visits and may not process all the instructions.\n- Recipients may view oral rehydration solution and chlorine as substitutes for each other.\n- People in areas with very little contact with health authorities might not react to the health information in ways that researchers would hope." }, { "id": 28369, "title": "Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election?", "short_title": "Community predicts the 2024 US election?", "url_title": "Community predicts the 2024 US election?", "slug": "community-predicts-the-2024-us-election", "author_id": 128784, "author_username": "benj83", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-19T22:55:19.029798Z", "published_at": "2024-09-28T13:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.519985Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-28T13:24:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-15T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-15T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T18:23:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-28T13:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28369, "title": "Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T22:55:19.029798Z", "open_time": "2024-09-28T13:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-30T06:57:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-30T06:57:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T18:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-23T18:35:05.094852Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-15T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-15T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024 with the main candidates being Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.\n\nThe Metaculus track record on the US presidential elections is at best mixed. [On November 2nd, 2016](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24/will-the-next-elected-us-president-be-as-usual-a-white-christian-non-hispanic-man/) the Metaculus Community Prediction was at 10% for Trump, who ended up winning the election. [On November 3rd, 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/trump-reelected-by-november-10th-2020/) the Community Prediction was at 15% for Trump, who ended up losing.\n\n[As of September 27, 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/2024-us-presidential-election-winner/), the Community Prediction is at 56% for Kamala Harris and 44% for Donald Trump.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of the US presidential election is the candidate who had the highest Community Prediction in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/2024-us-presidential-election-winner/) on November 4th, at 12:00p.m. EST.\n\nOtherwise, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "The winner of the election will be determined in the same way in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/2024-us-presidential-election-winner/).\n\nIf the 2024 US presidential election question resolves as ambiguous or is annulled, this question resolves as **Ambiguous**.\n\nIf there is a tie between the top candidates in the 2024 US presidential election question, this question resolves as **No**.", "post_id": 28369, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729023005.475457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.559 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729023005.475457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.559 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44099999999999995, 0.559 ], "means": [ 0.5626521867635113 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1758133787111316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13400878757166132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.9267961954923977, 0.0, 0.847026181566791, 0.0, 1.8218869508967814, 0.13082761184065436, 1.0600975930971404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6811115117988166, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6491744421033587, 0.10874699370748123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.03130111324493288, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3541698537003104 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -20.939628969794384, "peer_score": 35.02990081285534, "coverage": 0.996683899098942, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.996683899098942, "spot_peer_score": 42.7644244849255, "spot_baseline_score": -23.446525363702282, "baseline_archived_score": -20.939628969794384, "peer_archived_score": 35.02990081285534, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.7644244849255, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -23.446525363702282 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287273.216241, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287273.216241, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7050968730513907, 0.2949031269486094 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024 with the main candidates being Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.\n\nThe Metaculus track record on the US presidential elections is at best mixed. [On November 2nd, 2016](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24/will-the-next-elected-us-president-be-as-usual-a-white-christian-non-hispanic-man/) the Metaculus Community Prediction was at 10% for Trump, who ended up winning the election. [On November 3rd, 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/trump-reelected-by-november-10th-2020/) the Community Prediction was at 15% for Trump, who ended up losing.\n\n[As of September 27, 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/2024-us-presidential-election-winner/), the Community Prediction is at 56% for Kamala Harris and 44% for Donald Trump." }, { "id": 28338, "title": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Israel to Invade Lebanon Before 2025?", "url_title": "Israel to Invade Lebanon Before 2025?", "slug": "israel-to-invade-lebanon-before-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-19T15:28:11.755497Z", "published_at": "2024-09-20T16:04:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.226667Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-20T16:04:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-02T06:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T06:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T16:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28338, "title": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T15:28:11.755497Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T16:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-23T16:04:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-23T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T06:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T06:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-02T06:57:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved.\n\n[On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. Hezbollah has vowed retribution against Israel, while Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on September 18 that the country was \"opening a new phase in the war\" and and that the \"centre of gravity is shifting to the north through the diversion of resources and forces\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, after September 19, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, either the Government of Israel or any two [Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) announce or acknowledge that Israeli ground troops have entered Lebanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear that the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Israel and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Lebanon or the assent of the United Nations.\n\nThe announcements must describe events that take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and January 1, 2025.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, Lebanese territory is determined by the 2000 Blue Line.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28338, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728067889.957914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728067889.957914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9782099328038378 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0011473164167071434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042207412222504555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00075777975180793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004964380011391629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035552944344417064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019661527906424624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005792914588336932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.754091826509773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020544360039948728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007733503802370377, 0.0, 0.0017057729788106865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03640641335457906, 0.0, 0.34130802871041804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037945965240412326, 0.00417422322392255, 0.010851736499077945, 0.1996019219710155, 0.12342994047518482, 0.027628551020457432, 0.05804725917978172, 18.476730865450246 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.4798469270374532, "coverage": 0.11302890317777753, "baseline_score": 4.010348667819993, "spot_peer_score": 0.8828509052007533, "peer_archived_score": 1.4798469270374532, "baseline_archived_score": 4.010348667819993, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.8828509052007533 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727838009.410542, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727838009.410542, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.01821231290893155, 0.9817876870910685 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 336, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved.\n\n[On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. Hezbollah has vowed retribution against Israel, while Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on September 18 that the country was \"opening a new phase in the war\" and and that the \"centre of gravity is shifting to the north through the diversion of resources and forces\"." }, { "id": 28336, "title": "Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-prince-tom-iseghohi-win-the-september-21-2024-edo-state-gubernatorial-election-in-nigeria", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:40:02.298085Z", "published_at": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.670485Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T23:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T23:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28336, "title": "Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:40:02.298085Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T23:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T23:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-23T23:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Prince Tom Iseghohi is the Action Alliance's nominee for governor of Edo. The former Managing Director at Transnational Corp of Nigeria, Iseghohi [was acquitted](https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/09/18/court-acquits-tom-iseghohi-of-money-laundering-charges/) of money laundering charges in 2017. Nigeria's Vanguard News in [April 2024](https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/04/edo-iseghohi-wins-aa-guber-ticket/) named Iseghohi the frontrunner in the race, adding that \"is not only the fastest growing party in Nigeria but also the party to beat in the forthcoming September 21 governorship election in the state.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Prince Tom Iseghohi is the next governor of Edo State in Nigeria, based on the results of the September 21, 2024 gubernatorial election according to the [Independent National Electoral Commission](https://inecnigeria.org/) of Nigeria or [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports on the election results. ", "fine_print": "Although Nigeria typically counts its votes within a few days, if there is no declared winner before October 1, 2024, this question will be annulled. ", "post_id": 28336, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726842266.624816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726842266.624816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.1467177151623199 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9548775398281637, 3.131232664878593, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0428085562004172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7968025438413555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726842266.667501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726842266.667501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9777577514743451, 0.02224224852565492 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Prince Tom Iseghohi is the Action Alliance's nominee for governor of Edo. The former Managing Director at Transnational Corp of Nigeria, Iseghohi [was acquitted](https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/09/18/court-acquits-tom-iseghohi-of-money-laundering-charges/) of money laundering charges in 2017. Nigeria's Vanguard News in [April 2024](https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/04/edo-iseghohi-wins-aa-guber-ticket/) named Iseghohi the frontrunner in the race, adding that \"is not only the fastest growing party in Nigeria but also the party to beat in the forthcoming September 21 governorship election in the state.\"" }, { "id": 28335, "title": "Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-of-the-waltons-be-worth-100-billion-or-more-on-september-30-2024-according-to-forbes", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:40:02.101739Z", "published_at": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.404724Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28335, "title": "Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:40:02.101739Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T22:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) on September 30, 2024 Jim Walton & Family, Alice Walton, or Rob Walton & Family are worth greater than or equal to $100 billion. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable on September 30, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until October 6, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). ", "post_id": 28335, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726842274.921616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7033566124198649 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726842274.921616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7033566124198649 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7423641833913854 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7136986129802585, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9395738130237977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0411086077723675, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 1.0946684080916165, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.5589428929717781, 0.19087447827160808, 0.4649737572760317, 0.0, 0.5489490564483365, 0.0, 0.422729524609672 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726842274.96808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726842274.96808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.26206956548966887, 0.7379304345103311 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 28334, "title": "Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-deadly-attack-within-israel-causing-at-least-five-deaths-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:40:01.728878Z", "published_at": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.881651Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28334, "title": "Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:40:01.728878Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Attacks on Israel have seen a significant resurgence since the [October 7 Attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) and the resulting [Israel-Hamas War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war), [Israel-Hezbollah Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hezbollah_conflict_(2023–present)), and [Israel-Houthi Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis)\n\nBy early 2024, the number of rocket attacks on Israel was estimated at over [10,000](https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/operation-iron-swords-updated-to-1-p-m-november-22-2023/). A similar rate of rocket attacks have continued to this day.\n\nWhilst Israel has excellent air and rocket defence capabilities, there have been incidents where attacks have penetrated it's defences, two notable examples are listed below:\n\n- [2024 Iranian strikes against Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel). (*No deaths reported*.)\n- [2024 Houthi drone attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Houthi_drone_attack_on_Israel). (*Single death reported*.)\n\nThe aforementioned attacks have typically resulted in, or have been, \"tit-for-tat\" retaliations. For example, prior to the Iranian strikes on Israel, the IDF carried out an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The IDF responded to the Iranian reltalation with [strikes on Isfahan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran), but these were smaller in scale attacks, widely seen as an effort to deescalate tensions.\n\nAmidst the ongoing strikes exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah, reports emerged that more than 1,000 people – including Hezbollah fighters and medics – were [wounded on Tuesday, September 17](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dozens-hezbollah-members-wounded-lebanon-when-pagers-exploded-sources-witnesses-2024-09-17/) when the pagers used to communicate exploded across Lebanon in what is likely seen as a serious escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to \"Yes\" if before October 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five (5) individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve to \"Yes\":\n\n- Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the [Institute for the Study of War's map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n- The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n- The threshold of five (5) fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period.\n\nThese fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.", "post_id": 28334, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726842280.270136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5529999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726842280.270136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5529999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.42310216975839077 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.580270491795313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27326944033139156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.9018571275613385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.41171267971638004, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 1.147312829327383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1877326448389872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4821252936095042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 16.349873228287958, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 16.349873228287958 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726842280.311974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726842280.311974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7616891910228885, 0.2383108089771115 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Attacks on Israel have seen a significant resurgence since the [October 7 Attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) and the resulting [Israel-Hamas War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war), [Israel-Hezbollah Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hezbollah_conflict_(2023–present)), and [Israel-Houthi Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis)\n\nBy early 2024, the number of rocket attacks on Israel was estimated at over [10,000](https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/operation-iron-swords-updated-to-1-p-m-november-22-2023/). A similar rate of rocket attacks have continued to this day.\n\nWhilst Israel has excellent air and rocket defence capabilities, there have been incidents where attacks have penetrated it's defences, two notable examples are listed below:\n\n- [2024 Iranian strikes against Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel). (*No deaths reported*.)\n- [2024 Houthi drone attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Houthi_drone_attack_on_Israel). (*Single death reported*.)\n\nThe aforementioned attacks have typically resulted in, or have been, \"tit-for-tat\" retaliations. For example, prior to the Iranian strikes on Israel, the IDF carried out an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The IDF responded to the Iranian reltalation with [strikes on Isfahan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran), but these were smaller in scale attacks, widely seen as an effort to deescalate tensions.\n\nAmidst the ongoing strikes exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah, reports emerged that more than 1,000 people – including Hezbollah fighters and medics – were [wounded on Tuesday, September 17](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dozens-hezbollah-members-wounded-lebanon-when-pagers-exploded-sources-witnesses-2024-09-17/) when the pagers used to communicate exploded across Lebanon in what is likely seen as a serious escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict." }, { "id": 28330, "title": "Will the household water chlorination rate be 65% or higher for households served in the first two years of Evidence Action's program in Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh?", "short_title": "Chlorination rates ≥65% with ILC program?", "url_title": "Chlorination rates ≥65% with ILC program?", "slug": "chlorination-rates-65-with-ilc-program", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:11:28.132900Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T16:16:57.441052Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T16:00:00.383848Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-21T16:16:57.441049Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32513, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell Comment Prize", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell-comment-prize", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-10-18T21:10:37.173928Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:03.839687Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:26.126366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:56:26.126366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28330, "title": "Will the household water chlorination rate be 65% or higher for households served in the first two years of Evidence Action's program in Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:11:28.132900Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-06T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "GiveWell has provided a [pilot grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023) and a [scale-up grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023) to [Evidence Action](https://www.evidenceaction.org/programs/safe-water-now) to provide technical assistance to the Indian states of Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh in setting up [in-line chlorination](https://blog.givewell.org/2024/06/26/research-strategy-water/) (ILC) devices to [chlorinate](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023#We_think_ILC_devices) drinking water in rural populations, which GiveWell estimates is a highly cost-effective way to reduce the all-mortality rate among children under 5.\n\nA key measure of the success of the program is the chlorination rates in the target households of Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. For those served in the first two years of the 5-year program (September 2023 - September 2025), GiveWell expects that at least 65% of households will be using chlorinated water in September 2025. This is a measure of the proportion of households with positive free chlorine residual in household drinking water samples, which Evidence Action plans to collect as part of its routine monitoring. (It’s possible that GiveWell will fund an additional independent before-and-after impact evaluation to estimate the effect on chlorination rates.)\n\nIn its internal forecasting, GiveWell predicts with 60% confidence that this 65% chlorination rate in households targeted in the first two years will be achieved. GiveWell estimates chlorination rates based on results from one study of ILC, [Pickering et al. 2019](https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30315-8), and a [pilot of ILC in Kenya](https://docs.google.com/document/d/12f_yMLVLoqWcEyxadn01sTCLEx5RC8jn_8NL0iiWjdI/edit#). Together these suggest chlorination rates of [around 67%](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1400349819#gid=1400349819&range=E31:H32). Its main point of uncertainty is that this is a relatively limited evidence base, and it has not yet seen much chlorination data from ILC being delivered at scale.\n\nSee also the GiveWell Blog: [A major initiative to scale up water chlorination in India](https://blog.givewell.org/2024/04/30/a-major-initiative-to-scale-up-water-chlorination-in-india/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the chlorination rate for households served in the first two years (September 2023 - September 2025) of Evidence Action's in-line chlorination program in the Indian states of Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh is 65% or higher, according to GiveWell’s assessment.\n\nThe household chlorination rate is defined as the proportion of households with positive free chlorine residual in household drinking water samples. This question asks about the total rate across both Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh households.\n\nIf the total household chlorination rate is lower than 65% this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "GiveWell expects impact evaluation data to be received on or around March 2026 covering the first two years of the program, September 2023 - September 2025. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait up to two years after the end of the question period, until September 8, 2027, after which the question will be **annulled** if GiveWell determines there is insufficient evidence to support a Yes or No resolution.", "post_id": 28330, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757215338.957, "end_time": 1763196689.937673, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.542 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757215338.957, "end_time": 1763196689.937673, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.542 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.5537744512955152 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6881920094509739, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6604702157231703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "GiveWell has provided a [pilot grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023) and a [scale-up grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023) to [Evidence Action](https://www.evidenceaction.org/programs/safe-water-now) to provide technical assistance to the Indian states of Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh in setting up [in-line chlorination](https://blog.givewell.org/2024/06/26/research-strategy-water/) (ILC) devices to [chlorinate](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023#We_think_ILC_devices) drinking water in rural populations, which GiveWell estimates is a highly cost-effective way to reduce the all-mortality rate among children under 5.\n\nA key measure of the success of the program is the chlorination rates in the target households of Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. For those served in the first two years of the 5-year program (September 2023 - September 2025), GiveWell expects that at least 65% of households will be using chlorinated water in September 2025. This is a measure of the proportion of households with positive free chlorine residual in household drinking water samples, which Evidence Action plans to collect as part of its routine monitoring. (It’s possible that GiveWell will fund an additional independent before-and-after impact evaluation to estimate the effect on chlorination rates.)\n\nIn its internal forecasting, GiveWell predicts with 60% confidence that this 65% chlorination rate in households targeted in the first two years will be achieved. GiveWell estimates chlorination rates based on results from one study of ILC, [Pickering et al. 2019](https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30315-8), and a [pilot of ILC in Kenya](https://docs.google.com/document/d/12f_yMLVLoqWcEyxadn01sTCLEx5RC8jn_8NL0iiWjdI/edit#). Together these suggest chlorination rates of [around 67%](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1400349819#gid=1400349819&range=E31:H32). Its main point of uncertainty is that this is a relatively limited evidence base, and it has not yet seen much chlorination data from ILC being delivered at scale.\n\nSee also the GiveWell Blog: [A major initiative to scale up water chlorination in India](https://blog.givewell.org/2024/04/30/a-major-initiative-to-scale-up-water-chlorination-in-india/)" }, { "id": 28329, "title": "Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?", "short_title": "Gaza war end and two state solution by 2030?", "url_title": "Gaza war end and two state solution by 2030?", "slug": "gaza-war-end-and-two-state-solution-by-2030", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [ { "id": 198325, "username": "anna.k.hennig" }, { "id": 202409, "username": "EdwardStoppard" }, { "id": 161413, "username": "Emi" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-19T10:48:35.708773Z", "published_at": "2024-09-21T15:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T23:51:20.645018Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-21T15:36:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-21T15:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 168, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28329, "title": "Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T10:48:35.708773Z", "open_time": "2024-09-21T15:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-22T15:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-22T15:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the Gaza War Lead to a Two-State Solution to the Israel-Palestine Conflict?\n\nThe ongoing [Israel-Palestine conflict has deep historical roots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), dating back to when the British ruled the region under the British Mandate for Palestine after World War I. In 1947, [the United Nations proposed a two-state solution, aiming to divide the land between Jews and Palestinians](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution#:~:text=The%20two%2Dstate%20solution%20is,of%20the%20former%20Mandatory%20Palestine.\\&text=The%20first%20proposal%20for%20separate,Peel%20Commission%20report%20in%201937.). However, this plan was never fully realized. The creation of Israel in 1948 led to a [war with neighboring Arab states](https://www.britannica.com/event/Arab-Israeli-wars), after which Israel controlled significantly more territory than the original partition plan had allocated, leaving Palestinians without a recognized state.\nHamas, an Islamist militant group that seeks the destruction of Israel, gained control of the Gaza Strip [after winning elections in 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election#:~:text=The%20Central%20Elections%20Commission%20released,narrowly%20ahead%20on%20the%20lists.). Supported by Iran and Hezbollah, Hamas has regularly clashed with Israel. [The most recent conflict erupted on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel, taking hostages and sparking a fierce military response](https://www.britannica.com/event/Israel-Hamas-War#ref1320682). This renewed violence has intensified calls for a solution to the long-standing conflict.\nA two-state solution, which envisions independent Israeli and Palestinian states, has long been debated as a potential path to peace. However, the current hostilities raise questions about the feasibility of this outcome. While international pressure may push for a diplomatic resolution, Israel’s inability to swiftly [rescue hostages](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hostages-war-hamas-gaza-09-02-24-intl-hnk/index.html) and the [high civilian casualty rates](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/12/israel-civilian-deaths-and-the-question-of-proportionality) in Gaza could erode its global support, further complicating efforts to achieve lasting peace. The war may either reinforce the necessity of a two-state solution or push the conflict into an even more entrenched and violent cycle, with peace appearing more distant than ever.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the Gaza war ends AND at least one of the following criteria is fulfilled before January 1, 2030:\n\n* Israel officially ends its military occupation in the West Bank and Gaza with the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the transfer of administrative control to the Palestinian Authority or an internationally recognized Palestinian government.\n* Palestine is admitted as a full member state of the United Nations, with recognized sovereignty over defined territories.\n* Israel officially recognizes Palestine as an independent, sovereign nation.\n* All member states of either NATO or the EU recognize both Israel and Palestine as independent, sovereign nations.\n\nIf the Gaza War has not ended OR if none of the four criteria above have been met before January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "The end of the Gaza war is defined as a cessation of hostilities lasting a minimum of 60 consecutive days. This may be achieved through various means, including but not limited to: a peace treaty, a bilateral ceasefire, or the substantial degradation of Hamas's military capabilities resulting in a de facto end to the conflict.\n\nIf the state of Palestine is dissolved, this question will resolve as **No** even if a successor state takes its place.\n\nWest Bank and Gaza are defined based on the 1949 Armistice Agreement.", "post_id": 28329, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758194815.562515, "end_time": 1758294248.779444, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758194815.562515, "end_time": 1758294248.779444, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.180177982368754 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.6032592932179757, 0.0812647614137968, 0.075502977950882, 2.6312334943797344, 1.5157300253967918, 1.4434342532909534, 0.01785330346242701, 0.953752102999939, 1.3426474802797252, 0.047882832543977835, 2.2500560777070695, 1.2167164315911723, 0.007254371728824626, 0.0, 0.004576353296180563, 0.23479960754344537, 0.22877822122218167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6265595310708805, 0.0, 0.37131541786166894, 0.1942259058454579, 0.0, 0.024056485682037533, 0.0, 0.05492099964605583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13136942092676193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5309269312228182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2170516129296315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6478386055467238, 0.0, 0.0, 6.888960623282995e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4333494210241521, 0.7874740891661894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009401129276173656, 0.016535188280121363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010224124090346844, 0.0, 0.012051197561465337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3521798733422183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5956886831063779 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287261.607487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287261.607487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9962243930534643, 0.003775606946535625 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 316, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the Gaza War Lead to a Two-State Solution to the Israel-Palestine Conflict?\n\nThe ongoing [Israel-Palestine conflict has deep historical roots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), dating back to when the British ruled the region under the British Mandate for Palestine after World War I. In 1947, [the United Nations proposed a two-state solution, aiming to divide the land between Jews and Palestinians](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution#:~:text=The%20two%2Dstate%20solution%20is,of%20the%20former%20Mandatory%20Palestine.\\&text=The%20first%20proposal%20for%20separate,Peel%20Commission%20report%20in%201937.). However, this plan was never fully realized. The creation of Israel in 1948 led to a [war with neighboring Arab states](https://www.britannica.com/event/Arab-Israeli-wars), after which Israel controlled significantly more territory than the original partition plan had allocated, leaving Palestinians without a recognized state.\nHamas, an Islamist militant group that seeks the destruction of Israel, gained control of the Gaza Strip [after winning elections in 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election#:~:text=The%20Central%20Elections%20Commission%20released,narrowly%20ahead%20on%20the%20lists.). Supported by Iran and Hezbollah, Hamas has regularly clashed with Israel. [The most recent conflict erupted on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel, taking hostages and sparking a fierce military response](https://www.britannica.com/event/Israel-Hamas-War#ref1320682). This renewed violence has intensified calls for a solution to the long-standing conflict.\nA two-state solution, which envisions independent Israeli and Palestinian states, has long been debated as a potential path to peace. However, the current hostilities raise questions about the feasibility of this outcome. While international pressure may push for a diplomatic resolution, Israel’s inability to swiftly [rescue hostages](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hostages-war-hamas-gaza-09-02-24-intl-hnk/index.html) and the [high civilian casualty rates](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/12/israel-civilian-deaths-and-the-question-of-proportionality) in Gaza could erode its global support, further complicating efforts to achieve lasting peace. The war may either reinforce the necessity of a two-state solution or push the conflict into an even more entrenched and violent cycle, with peace appearing more distant than ever." } ] }
