Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2040
{ "count": 6332, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2060", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2020", "results": [ { "id": 30277, "title": "Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.6M for November 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-fbi-firearms-background-checks-initiated-through-the-nics-exceed-26m-for-november-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.352044Z", "published_at": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.290824Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30082, "title": "Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.6M for November 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.352044Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-10T16:01:05.853115Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which can be access through [this link](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view), shows greater than 2,600,000 background check initiated in November 2024. If the number is less than or equal to 2,600,000, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Numbers are expected to be reported in the month subsequent, so for example October numbers are expected to be reported in November. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait, until the question will be annulled in early January 2025 if there are no numbers reported by then for the time in question.", "post_id": 30277, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732114622.81723, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35000000000000003 ], "centers": [ 0.484 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732114622.81723, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35000000000000003 ], "centers": [ 0.484 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.516, 0.484 ], "means": [ 0.5218468788680545 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.608715940105879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.478157673876106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.8355804261814468, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2490595386617818, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.7197600516422684, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -58.150136652510795, "peer_score": 1.4077619368505583, "coverage": 0.9927687500693181, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9927687500693181, "spot_peer_score": 36.321203651002385, "spot_baseline_score": 4.544297076116711, "baseline_archived_score": -58.150136652510795, "peer_archived_score": 1.4077619368505583, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 36.321203651002385, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 4.544297076116711 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward." }, { "id": 30276, "title": "Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.4M for November 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-fbi-firearms-background-checks-initiated-through-the-nics-exceed-24m-for-november-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.312194Z", "published_at": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.632354Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30081, "title": "Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.4M for November 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.312194Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-10T15:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-10T16:00:43.565984Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which can be access through [this link](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view), shows greater than 2,400,000 background check initiated in November 2024. If the number is less than or equal to 2,400,000, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Numbers are expected to be reported in the month subsequent, so for example October numbers are expected to be reported in November. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait, until the question will be annulled in early January 2025 if there are no numbers reported by then for the time in question.", "post_id": 30276, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732114850.184767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43678295777471127 ], "centers": [ 0.565 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732114850.184767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43678295777471127 ], "centers": [ 0.565 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43500000000000005, 0.565 ], "means": [ 0.5832713750536314 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031967072481022006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267321585213134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.334268237955926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.8331016997804591, 0.3733687775975512, 0.7024940754197081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.5667911627135067, 0.495368724479614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0334940524377902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 32.75063055465078, "peer_score": 48.16640596587357, "coverage": 0.9926208789122326, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9926208789122326, "spot_peer_score": 26.290687439108314, "spot_baseline_score": 17.632277264046287, "baseline_archived_score": 32.75063055465078, "peer_archived_score": 48.16640596587357, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.290687439108314, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 17.632277264046287 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.`" }, { "id": 30275, "title": "Will Kalshi outrank Robinhood in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kalshi-outrank-robinhood-in-the-top-free-finance-apps-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.280181Z", "published_at": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.751392Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30080, "title": "Will Kalshi outrank Robinhood in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.280181Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T00:40:49.255831Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi continues building on its momentum, as surpassing the Robinhood app (currently ranked #22) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2024, according to the Apple App Store at [this link](https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone/finance-apps/6015?chart=top-free), Kalshi has a higher rank than Robinhood when accessed by Metaculus Admins. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 30275, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732115112.064215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732115112.064215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35623178626840823 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.9939328009232822, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.10735107401622149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 1.1910005497285958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9696319252230643, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22403198463947285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.75985095967244, "peer_score": 22.510767530821646, "coverage": 0.9924605548271426, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9924605548271426, "spot_peer_score": 25.971748755684818, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 18.75985095967244, "peer_archived_score": 22.510767530821646, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.971748755684818, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi continues building on its momentum, as surpassing the Robinhood app (currently ranked #22) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election." }, { "id": 30274, "title": "Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-bilateral-ceasefire-be-announced-in-the-ukraine-war-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.231230Z", "published_at": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.362490Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 30079, "title": "Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T14:16:57.231230Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:36:37.116597Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-20T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how.\n\nTrump's recent interactions with key leaders have been notable. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September 2024 at Trump Tower, later describing him as \"the greatest salesman in the world.\" After winning the election, Trump reportedly spoke with both Zelenskyy (in a call that included Elon Musk discussing continued Starlink support) and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the Kremlin has denied that the Putin call took place, calling reports from The Washington Post \"pure fiction.\"\n\nMultiple peace proposals are reportedly under consideration by Trump's team, including a potential 800-mile demilitarized zone. Some NATO members, like Slovakia, have begun openly questioning continued military support for Ukraine, while others remain committed. Meanwhile, Russia faces mounting demographic pressures from military losses exceeding 710,000 troops and a severe birth rate crisis.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if an armistice or a ceasefire is announced by both Ukraine and Russia before January 1, 2025. This will count if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. The ceasefire or armistice must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\nThe specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this question. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced before January 1, 2025", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30274, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732115344.47031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1454 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732115344.47031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1454 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8546, 0.1454 ], "means": [ 0.12255447960237255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.9708446400368703, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.8465712705368533, 0.015708539450405595, 0.4499897708597784, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 1.6059262058405976, 0.1836394386094319, 0.1405470336200478, 1.3154090380361876, 0.0, 0.4595750791136129, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 77.38258851686112, "peer_score": -0.990142741929382, "coverage": 0.9920996323724585, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9920996323724585, "spot_peer_score": -1.6975416119939588, "spot_baseline_score": 77.33212221316623, "baseline_archived_score": 77.38258851686112, "peer_archived_score": -0.990142741929382, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.6975416119939588, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 77.33212221316623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how.\n\nTrump's recent interactions with key leaders have been notable. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September 2024 at Trump Tower, later describing him as \"the greatest salesman in the world.\" After winning the election, Trump reportedly spoke with both Zelenskyy (in a call that included Elon Musk discussing continued Starlink support) and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the Kremlin has denied that the Putin call took place, calling reports from The Washington Post \"pure fiction.\"\n\nMultiple peace proposals are reportedly under consideration by Trump's team, including a potential 800-mile demilitarized zone. Some NATO members, like Slovakia, have begun openly questioning continued military support for Ukraine, while others remain committed. Meanwhile, Russia faces mounting demographic pressures from military losses exceeding 710,000 troops and a severe birth rate crisis." }, { "id": 30252, "title": "Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?", "short_title": "Will Bocelli's New York 2024 concerts sell out?", "url_title": "Will Bocelli's New York 2024 concerts sell out?", "slug": "will-bocellis-new-york-2024-concerts-sell-out", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T05:48:21.428614Z", "published_at": "2024-11-20T19:32:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.504361Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-20T19:32:46Z", "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32559, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_TqQCKYL.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-12-11T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-03T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-12-03T20:11:36.362514Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-08T06:50:47.494484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30060, "title": "Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T05:48:21.428973Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-24T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-24T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T23:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T23:52:41.723690Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-18T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-18T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Andrea Bocelli, the renowned Italian tenor, [is scheduled](https://www.andreabocelli.com/?post_type=tour) to perform at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 18 and 19, 2024. These performances are part of his annual Christmas tour, which typically features holiday classics alongside selections from his albums \"A Family Christmas\" and \"Believe\". Historically, Bocelli's concerts have attracted large audiences, [occasionally](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/music/1949661/andrea-bocelli-tickets-uk-tour-2025) leading to sold-out shows.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024, is officially declared sold out by the venue or the primary ticketing platform, Ticketmaster, before the respective performance date.", "fine_print": "- A concert is considered \"sold out\" when no tickets are available for purchase through official channels. Secondary market availability (resale platforms) will not impact the resolution of this question.\n- Admins may resolve this question based on either reports from credible sources or by checking the availability of the tickets on Ticketmaster.\n- This question will resolve as **Yes** based on the first reports that a performance has been sold out. If extra seats are added after a performance is reported as being sold out, the question will still resolve as **Yes**.\n- If both of the performances are canceled or rescheduled, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 30252, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734522705.530487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734522705.530487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5302684361429798 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09022908093720004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.882493535772869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37113480134217347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20566286060455888, 0.0, 0.19030380486090423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5604905061740477, 0.0, 0.0, 1.599042151818543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17592413500841017, 1.2529543656745905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002949293081317581, 0.5576418855024077, 0.8284076835897499, 0.0, 0.4066000392309813, 0.6831013776873005, 0.7785350193188251, 0.39818867837781474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45859551750172006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.457422476445143, 0.42022652132926797, 0.25819147560843936, 0.0, 0.80518261901127, 1.1791870591298463, 0.9979299509752331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051651386754525144, 0.0, 0.07843168604693199, 0.0, 0.13813894976991253, 0.0, 0.015157278973843901, 0.3111652136642349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04228688608058346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.064943841226617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011600507024289436, 0.2817083346647279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07459731030799356 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -284.72745211927696, "peer_score": 67.16208406949261, "coverage": 0.9998503094914134, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998503094914134, "spot_peer_score": 11.006581957879073, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873626, "baseline_archived_score": -284.72745211927696, "peer_archived_score": 67.16208406949261, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.006581957879073, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873626 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 409, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Andrea Bocelli, the renowned Italian tenor, [is scheduled](https://www.andreabocelli.com/?post_type=tour) to perform at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 18 and 19, 2024. These performances are part of his annual Christmas tour, which typically features holiday classics alongside selections from his albums \"A Family Christmas\" and \"Believe\". Historically, Bocelli's concerts have attracted large audiences, [occasionally](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/music/1949661/andrea-bocelli-tickets-uk-tour-2025) leading to sold-out shows." }, { "id": 30251, "title": "Will Ukraine use ATACMS to strike deep within Russia before 1 January 2025?", "short_title": "Ukraine ATACMS strike deep in Russia before 1 Jan 2025?", "url_title": "Ukraine ATACMS strike deep in Russia before 1 Jan 2025?", "slug": "ukraine-atacms-strike-deep-in-russia-before-1-jan-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-19T05:21:43.334752Z", "published_at": "2024-11-20T20:55:34.429464Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.443891Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-20T20:55:34.429462Z", "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-19T23:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-19T23:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30059, "title": "Will Ukraine use ATACMS to strike deep within Russia before 1 January 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-19T05:21:43.335162Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-25T03:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-25T03:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-19T23:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-19T23:44:22.522129Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-19T23:44:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 17, 2024, Joe Biden [authorised](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c) Ukraine to utilise the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes deep within Russian territory. This marks a significant shift in US policy, as previous restrictions limited Ukraine's use of US missiles to occupied territories and attacks just across the border.\n\nThe authorization came as a response to [the deployment](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2796pdm1lo) of North Korean troops supporting Russian forces in their fight against Ukraine. On [November 19](https://www.ft.com/content/3f4654ec-4dbd-45d1-9d51-869993c717d0), Ukraine hit a weapons arsenal in Bryansk, 190km from the current frontlines.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Ukraine uses ATACMS to strike any location within the pre-2014 borders of Russia, excluding those Russian oblasts that are immediately adjacent to Ukrainian-held territory: Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod.\n\nIf no such reports are available before 7 January 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "- Credible sources must confirm that the missile(s) landed in the specified area.\n- Intercepted missiles will not resolve this question positively. \n- Missiles that strike in the specified area, but do not detonate (e.g., due to malfunction) will nonetheless result in a **Yes** resolution.\n- In the event of ambiguity regarding whether a missile strike was intercepted or successful, Metaculus admins may use their discretion based on information available from credible sources.", "post_id": 30251, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734645270.191224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734645270.191224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6376272433596918 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.21233733898991575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012427873490302374, 0.0, 0.010174674941564427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017185032642488336, 0.3262038732013748, 0.0, 0.18701184823326883, 0.0, 0.0074560666001308225, 0.0036470026727336412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1998841222004088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08929898399145973, 0.009177490688521169, 0.008069288595311508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010778773543335458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006639643375099136, 0.7654521888776699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6863281578927374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15396039658997956, 0.0, 0.0, 2.31104371029533, 0.27212868753500247, 0.8799763948642016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6075959669037758, 0.0504725380405172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39080740960360627, 0.013695601476635202, 0.0, 0.43754359052556363, 0.6495679415804932, 1.0700328686302552, 0.049484673575065724, 0.41727520509811944, 0.48203206679527805, 0.0, 0.30751421199081597, 0.0, 0.1027218499487311, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7182895797706206, 0.21803294258429545, 0.0, 0.8023397176434954, 0.17810342260289236, 0.18262540065513533, 0.0, 0.030597622151664183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49072637228749416, 0.02583872132393838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12610574305286126, 1.0343687655931564, 0.8949384680256739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02813465474885012, 0.05811106897101362, 0.36730907972780197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.574705357969667 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 481, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 17, 2024, Joe Biden [authorised](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c) Ukraine to utilise the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes deep within Russian territory. This marks a significant shift in US policy, as previous restrictions limited Ukraine's use of US missiles to occupied territories and attacks just across the border.\n\nThe authorization came as a response to [the deployment](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2796pdm1lo) of North Korean troops supporting Russian forces in their fight against Ukraine. On [November 19](https://www.ft.com/content/3f4654ec-4dbd-45d1-9d51-869993c717d0), Ukraine hit a weapons arsenal in Bryansk, 190km from the current frontlines." }, { "id": 30213, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?", "short_title": "Will the opening box office of Mufasa: TLK surpass Sonic 3?", "url_title": "Will the opening box office of Mufasa: TLK surpass Sonic 3?", "slug": "will-the-opening-box-office-of-mufasa-tlk-surpass-sonic-3", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T18:07:32.656608Z", "published_at": "2024-11-20T19:51:24.166930Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.360702Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-20T19:51:24.166928Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-24T15:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 30012, "title": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T18:07:32.656956Z", "open_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-24T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-24T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-24T15:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-24T16:21:35.968607Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedgehog 3*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18259086/) is an upcoming action-adventure comedy film based on the Sega video game series. The original *Sonic the Hedgehog* earned $58 million in its domestic opening weekend, while its sequel, *Sonic the Hedgehog 2*, made $72 million.\n\nBoth films are based in intellectual properties from the early 90s and are set for release on December 20, 2024. Despite the differences in the box office performances of the previous installments in their respective franchises, projections for both films [appear to be similarly strong](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-mufasa-the-lion-king-and-sonic-the-hedgehog-3s-early-box-office-ranges-plus-wicked-gladiator-ii-and-moana-2-updates/).\n\nBox Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of [Mufasa: The Lion King](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13186482/) surpasses the domestic box office for the opening weekend of [Sonic the Hedgehog 3](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt18259086/), according to the numbers provided by Box Office Mojo. If the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Sonic the Hedgehog 3 exceeds that of Mufasa: The Lion King, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Other credible sources might be considered if Box Office Mojo does not report the relevant numbers.\n\nThe weekend box office figures are [generally expected](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#weekend) to be posted after 1 PM Pacific Time on the Monday the day after the weekend. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.", "post_id": 30213, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734642177.657466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734642177.657466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17918808124665206 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8556111548229577, 0.0, 0.19030380486090423, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1296587044258108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16530903200104163, 3.8626325656999345, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9160603417480413, 0.22205743285900253, 0.25819147560843936, 0.7288472840026776, 0.8385885461547113, 1.1781795046855636, 0.0, 0.07539365390346586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20475723697397333, 0.0, 0.13813894976991253, 0.043015910471330396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46963515880361406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0063312489975652355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2509037850551384, 0.11693021616061994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2958919415417589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1073881054056872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.289657892179102, 0.0012965554486791008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.02464062427608051, 0.0, 0.003650949509915334, 0.0, 0.04577629280903341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02039609682099969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007446731347793363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027269256698844842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14989147521115825, 0.0, 0.004442640210629016 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -37.87789782447123, "peer_score": 36.85642349343791, "coverage": 0.9997347133799592, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997347133799592, "spot_peer_score": -6.908156479027069, "spot_baseline_score": -121.08967824986186, "baseline_archived_score": -37.87789782447123, "peer_archived_score": 36.85642349343791, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.908156479027069, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -121.08967824986186 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 329, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedgehog 3*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18259086/) is an upcoming action-adventure comedy film based on the Sega video game series. The original *Sonic the Hedgehog* earned $58 million in its domestic opening weekend, while its sequel, *Sonic the Hedgehog 2*, made $72 million.\n\nBoth films are based in intellectual properties from the early 90s and are set for release on December 20, 2024. Despite the differences in the box office performances of the previous installments in their respective franchises, projections for both films [appear to be similarly strong](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-mufasa-the-lion-king-and-sonic-the-hedgehog-3s-early-box-office-ranges-plus-wicked-gladiator-ii-and-moana-2-updates/).\n\nBox Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n\n>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday." }, { "id": 30203, "title": "Will Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton win the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-lainey-wilson-or-chris-stapleton-win-the-2024-cma-award-for-single-of-the-year", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:47.204339Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.183750Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29998, "title": "Will Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton win the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:47.204339Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T14:15:25.146466Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton wins the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for November 20, 2024.", "post_id": 30203, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732027996.22742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.4765 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732027996.22742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.4765 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5235000000000001, 0.4765 ], "means": [ 0.49399968512130404 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11063172099057772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04018318433659051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.243116734434214, 0.0, 1.750343771036404, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.78183691522486, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.422729524609672, 0.19073805166550978, 0.40213785952358283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17748291552827444, 0.0, 0.2589219356652139, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.322852221840229, "peer_score": 13.012989775627041, "coverage": 0.9979136326633118, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9979136326633118, "spot_peer_score": 2.4505343253966867, "spot_baseline_score": -6.945188075214521, "baseline_archived_score": 14.322852221840229, "peer_archived_score": 13.012989775627041, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.4505343253966867, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -6.945188075214521 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)" }, { "id": 30202, "title": "Will the CDC confirm a case of Marburg virus disease in a US resident before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cdc-confirm-a-case-of-marburg-virus-disease-in-a-us-resident-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:47.183209Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.019118Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29997, "title": "Will the CDC confirm a case of Marburg virus disease in a US resident before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:47.183209Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:35:56.279776Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to CDC, \"The Republic of Rwanda has confirmed several cases of Marburg virus disease (Marburg) in hospitals around the country, including some deaths. This is the country's first Marburg virus outbreak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) publicly confirms at least one case of Marburg virus disease in a resident of the United States before January 1, 2025. The confirmation must be made through an official CDC announcement, such as a press release, health alert, or update on their website. The question resolves as **No** if the CDC does not confirm any cases of Marburg virus disease in U.S. residents before Midnight UTC on January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "- Confirmation is required; CDC's mere acknowledgment of a case being reported, such as from a state department of health, will not count. Suspected or probable cases will not count. Only cases meeting the [CDC's confirmed case definition](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/clinicians/case-definition.html#confirmed) for mpox will be considered. Imported cases count, as long as the infected person is a U.S. resident and physically present within the 50 states at the time of confirmation. For this question, a U.S. resident is defined as any member of the U.S. resident population per the [CDC's definition](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/sources-definitions/population.htm).", "post_id": 30202, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028008.719383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03925 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.051 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028008.719383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03925 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.051 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96075, 0.03925 ], "means": [ 0.049424353986393825 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1792089906998804, 2.18440109007294, 1.6723672424918279, 0.5501165958471533, 2.1007767656199916, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.5698599192310232, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.66997688132123, "peer_score": 1.4999935130981956, "coverage": 0.9966813095824587, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9966813095824587, "spot_peer_score": 2.0236559247448103, "spot_baseline_score": 94.22329764007156, "baseline_archived_score": 92.66997688132123, "peer_archived_score": 1.4999935130981956, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.0236559247448103, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 94.22329764007156 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to CDC, \"The Republic of Rwanda has confirmed several cases of Marburg virus disease (Marburg) in hospitals around the country, including some deaths. This is the country's first Marburg virus outbreak." }, { "id": 30201, "title": "Will the Federal Register list 3 or more executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024? ", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-register-list-3-or-more-executive-orders-by-president-joe-biden-for-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:47.161823Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.054192Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T23:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29996, "title": "Will the Federal Register list 3 or more executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:47.161823Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T23:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-28T23:46:42.986625Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024), lists ≥3 executive orders for President Joe Biden for the month of December 2024. If it lists >0, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30201, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028020.752948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.546 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028020.752948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.546 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45399999999999996, 0.546 ], "means": [ 0.4902627206324155 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.5442933680841893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5961610293724522, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0701686078568375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7083221913413609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9562313924992358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.570042353937055, 1.033509985411114, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.36129008958887926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14102981378249485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 26.019787244226816, "peer_score": 14.706711150715735, "coverage": 0.994032415902173, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.994032415902173, "spot_peer_score": 11.841072980729459, "spot_baseline_score": 12.697285625776551, "baseline_archived_score": 26.019787244226816, "peer_archived_score": 14.706711150715735, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.841072980729459, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 12.697285625776551 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)" }, { "id": 30200, "title": "Will the Federal Register list 1 or 2 executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024? ", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-register-list-1-or-2-executive-orders-by-president-joe-biden-for-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:47.140334Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.704235Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T23:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29995, "title": "Will the Federal Register list 1 or 2 executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:47.140334Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-28T23:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-29T01:08:58.349505Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024), lists 1 or 2 executive orders for President Joe Biden for the month of December 2024. If it lists >0, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30200, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028032.93535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.44221367146275997 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028032.93535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.44221367146275997 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55778632853724, 0.44221367146275997 ], "means": [ 0.44559895684075834 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0239512508387385, 0.0, 0.5388258452186474, 0.0, 1.5659471731889245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13238986393323063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24582621653782244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.9134389029481002, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26233604140241296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.073026907311351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 22.717383875840103, "peer_score": 27.039716731011453, "coverage": 0.9906022790405487, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9906022790405487, "spot_peer_score": 15.64828595222889, "spot_baseline_score": 15.778447914677184, "baseline_archived_score": 22.717383875840103, "peer_archived_score": 27.039716731011453, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.64828595222889, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 15.778447914677184 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)" }, { "id": 30199, "title": "Will the Federal Register list exactly zero executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024? ", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-register-list-exactly-zero-executive-orders-by-president-joe-biden-for-december-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.914329Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.631702Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T10:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29994, "title": "Will the Federal Register list exactly zero executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.914329Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T10:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-29T10:42:52.995428Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024), lists exactly 0 executive orders for President Joe Biden for the month of December 2024. If it lists >0, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30199, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028045.216439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.077 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1508 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028045.216439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.077 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1508 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.875, 0.125 ], "means": [ 0.14138373868255824 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.589602710628312, 0.0, 1.1157084398792372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9258796509408995, 0.8322595053523607, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 3.063579348256977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45314515134150546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.30985604430208, "peer_score": 1.7798445478292968, "coverage": 0.9898479704282902, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9898479704282902, "spot_peer_score": 1.899972402726307, "spot_baseline_score": 80.73549220576041, "baseline_archived_score": 81.30985604430208, "peer_archived_score": 1.7798445478292968, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.899972402726307, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 80.73549220576041 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)" }, { "id": 30198, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall affecting Dearborn Sausage Company, Inc be closed before December 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usda-posted-recall-affecting-dearborn-sausage-company-inc-be-closed-before-december-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.893964Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.101893Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T22:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29993, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall affecting Dearborn Sausage Company, Inc be closed before December 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.893964Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T22:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-01T22:07:42.135655Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Dayton Daily News on [September 12, 2024](https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/beef-pork-wiener-label-mix-up-leads-to-recall-undeclared-allergen/OU4NXTZP7VGX5KFQD64OPADGFE/), About 1,944 pounds of ready-to-eat wieners have been recalled by the Dearborn Sausage Company Inc. because beef products were labeled as pork and vice versa. The swap also led to soy, a known allergen, not being declared on the beef wieners. The problem was discovered when the establishment received a complaint from a retailer that the products they received may have been incorrectly labeled. The establishment determined that they inadvertently mislabeled beef wiener products as beef and pork wiener products and vice versa. The products labeled as beef and pork wiener products actually contain beef wiener products that contain soy; therefore, soy is not declared on the finished product label. Additionally, the product labeled as beef wiener products actually contain beef and pork wiener products, therefore, pork is not declared on the finished product label. There have been no confirmed reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Dearborn Sausage Company's ready-to-eat (RTE) wiener products due to misbranding and undeclared allergens is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/dearborn-sausage-company-inc--recalls-wiener-products-due-misbranding-and-undeclared) is accessed by Metaculus after November 30, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered.", "post_id": 30198, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028058.140151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7615000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028058.140151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7615000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5780830545133256 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5515434958076675, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4724920989633882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.440062421023168, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.09877132838432481, 0.9457595080007023, 0.0, 0.3773418411414129, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.4249377485786018, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2673887142896781, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -53.732207023967746, "peer_score": -10.692759741645483, "coverage": 0.9888962279508512, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9888962279508512, "spot_peer_score": -6.297131711559613, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -53.732207023967746, "peer_archived_score": -10.692759741645483, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.297131711559613, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Dayton Daily News on [September 12, 2024](https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/beef-pork-wiener-label-mix-up-leads-to-recall-undeclared-allergen/OU4NXTZP7VGX5KFQD64OPADGFE/), About 1,944 pounds of ready-to-eat wieners have been recalled by the Dearborn Sausage Company Inc. because beef products were labeled as pork and vice versa. The swap also led to soy, a known allergen, not being declared on the beef wieners. The problem was discovered when the establishment received a complaint from a retailer that the products they received may have been incorrectly labeled. The establishment determined that they inadvertently mislabeled beef wiener products as beef and pork wiener products and vice versa. The products labeled as beef and pork wiener products actually contain beef wiener products that contain soy; therefore, soy is not declared on the finished product label. Additionally, the product labeled as beef wiener products actually contain beef and pork wiener products, therefore, pork is not declared on the finished product label. There have been no confirmed reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products.\"" }, { "id": 30197, "title": "Will iRobot file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-irobot-file-for-bankruptcy-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.873476Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.650704Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29992, "title": "Will iRobot file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.873476Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:34:10.570061Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In January 2024, Amazon terminated its planned acquisition of iRobot due to regulatory opposition. At the time of this question, iRobot has had operating losses in the years ending January 2022, December 2022, December 2023, and is on a pace to have operating losses for the current fiscal year as well. It has also faced revenue declines and negative cash flow from operations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if iRobot Corporation files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30197, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028070.39177, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1659836262433643 ], "centers": [ 0.22399999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.266 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028070.39177, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1659836262433643 ], "centers": [ 0.22399999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.266 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.776, 0.22399999999999998 ], "means": [ 0.2700441819917896 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.8863469902325373, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.482039165292421, 0.6803385023255489, 0.9105903213533636, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 1.4427440850459448, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 1.0014360183128659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.19330086451826228, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36190362529897907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 59.08327091689137, "peer_score": 19.06940053609145, "coverage": 0.9878396156126703, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9878396156126703, "spot_peer_score": 16.04622813504302, "spot_baseline_score": 63.412855752504065, "baseline_archived_score": 59.08327091689137, "peer_archived_score": 19.06940053609145, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.04622813504302, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 63.412855752504065 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In January 2024, Amazon terminated its planned acquisition of iRobot due to regulatory opposition. At the time of this question, iRobot has had operating losses in the years ending January 2022, December 2022, December 2023, and is on a pace to have operating losses for the current fiscal year as well. It has also faced revenue declines and negative cash flow from operations." }, { "id": 30196, "title": "Will Bausch Health, Inc., file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bausch-health-inc-file-for-bankruptcy-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.852875Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.463207Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29991, "title": "Will Bausch Health, Inc., file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.852875Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:33:16.782931Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bausch Health sells pharmaceutical drugs and medical devices. Recently it [denied](https://ir.bauschhealth.com/news-releases/2024/07-24-2024) it was considering bankruptcy, calling such reports \"unsubstantiated rumors.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Bausch Health, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30196, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028082.447602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0625 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.258 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028082.447602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0625 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.258 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.1872051598527771 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 1.431554045726996, 0.748611420453809, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.5565641665188803, 0.7586143445231218, 0.3921502548093888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11843838104696351, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.3886379977607279, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.9491713405896097, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0215859302194357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.71150859740575, "peer_score": 4.748901357070768, "coverage": 0.9873265953361989, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9873265953361989, "spot_peer_score": -0.190322061444243, "spot_baseline_score": 73.11832415721999, "baseline_archived_score": 80.71150859740575, "peer_archived_score": 4.748901357070768, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.190322061444243, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 73.11832415721999 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bausch Health sells pharmaceutical drugs and medical devices. Recently it [denied](https://ir.bauschhealth.com/news-releases/2024/07-24-2024) it was considering bankruptcy, calling such reports \"unsubstantiated rumors.\"" }, { "id": 30195, "title": "Will Nick Sirianni cease to be the Philadelphia Eagles head coach before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nick-sirianni-cease-to-be-the-philadelphia-eagles-head-coach-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.832638Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.710998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29990, "title": "Will Nick Sirianni cease to be the Philadelphia Eagles head coach before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.832638Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:31:44.082469Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ClutchPoints: [Eagles fans want Nick Sirianni fired after bizarre calls](https://clutchpoints.com/eagles-news-fans-want-nick-sirianni-fired-bizarre-calls)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Nick Sirianni is no longer head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the official Cowboys website [coaches roster](https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/team/coaches/). Otherwise this question resolves as **No.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30195, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028095.479792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05464807653587731 ], "centers": [ 0.0816 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028095.479792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05464807653587731 ], "centers": [ 0.0816 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9184, 0.0816 ], "means": [ 0.13751097049530858 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0384709393040437, 1.672053247471222, 0.0, 0.9098085423223006, 0.0, 0.41760219967477274, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.11401116805179656, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.44433735784817074, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 79.46473962990221, "peer_score": 14.352070743259654, "coverage": 0.9873239060988028, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9873239060988028, "spot_peer_score": 15.498250007535018, "spot_baseline_score": 87.71945471262383, "baseline_archived_score": 79.46473962990221, "peer_archived_score": 14.352070743259654, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.498250007535018, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 87.71945471262383 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ClutchPoints: [Eagles fans want Nick Sirianni fired after bizarre calls](https://clutchpoints.com/eagles-news-fans-want-nick-sirianni-fired-bizarre-calls)" }, { "id": 30194, "title": "On December 30, 2024, Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-december-30-2024-will-nvidia-have-the-largest-market-cap-in-the-world", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.525523Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.727931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29989, "title": "On December 30, 2024, Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.525523Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:13:30.427352Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of October 5, 2024, Nvidia was the #3 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, on December 30, 2024, Nvidia is ranked #1 by market capitalization according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus after the close of the day's trading.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30194, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028109.038337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5039616814697585 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72455 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028109.038337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5039616814697585 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72455 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.5753184007338537 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4206662389805906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4147501680565058, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 1.1850674722486558, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 1.4279437891194773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09534078800711646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": -47.39311883324123, "baseline_score": -46.8588121803347, "peer_score": 9.287509827709922, "coverage": 0.9873212786681121, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9873212786681121, "spot_peer_score": 0.0614204550766782, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -47.39311883324123, "baseline_archived_score": -46.8588121803347, "peer_archived_score": 9.287509827709922, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0614204550766782 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of October 5, 2024, Nvidia was the #3 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source." }, { "id": 30193, "title": "On December 30, 2024, Will Microsoft have the largest market cap in the world?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-december-30-2024-will-microsoft-have-the-largest-market-cap-in-the-world", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.506608Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.977248Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29988, "title": "On December 30, 2024, Will Microsoft have the largest market cap in the world?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.506608Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:31:25.933439Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of October 5, 2024, Microsoft was the #2 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, on December 30, 2024, Microsoft is ranked #1 by market capitalization according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus after the close of the day's trading.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30193, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028122.014614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17600000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028122.014614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17600000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.824, 0.17600000000000002 ], "means": [ 0.19869303080206216 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.527677027563428, 0.0, 0.41803518336757783, 0.9964795882629178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.012467310918495, 0.0, 1.5909288236789125, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.31489077680617433, 0.6149678299500161, 0.44816710576384877, 1.751153470269927, 0.0, 0.2651944034413735, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 72.07162425211312, "baseline_score": 71.55562703285598, "peer_score": 5.7992191832477, "coverage": 0.9866418773487762, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9866418773487762, "spot_peer_score": 4.983883804493268, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 72.07162425211312, "baseline_archived_score": 71.55562703285598, "peer_archived_score": 5.7992191832477, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.983883804493268 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of October 5, 2024, Microsoft was the #2 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source." }, { "id": 30192, "title": "On December 30, 2024, Will Apple have the largest market cap in the world?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-december-30-2024-will-apple-have-the-largest-market-cap-in-the-world", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.488210Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.711329Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29987, "title": "On December 30, 2024, Will Apple have the largest market cap in the world?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.488210Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:32:15.317141Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of October 5, 2024, Apple was the #1 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, on December 30, 2024, Apple is ranked #1 by market capitalization according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus after the close of the day's trading.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30192, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028134.315183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32299999999999995 ], "centers": [ 0.41100000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.503 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028134.315183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32299999999999995 ], "centers": [ 0.41100000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.503 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.589, 0.41100000000000003 ], "means": [ 0.42331245249283106 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15769724562820026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.5385523304935678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.9120497244989734, 1.023631498669224, 0.6850893156161345, 0.22827012898946356, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7640856351447469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": -28.278970098040404, "baseline_score": -32.15405500879949, "peer_score": 7.277776444810043, "coverage": 0.9866393711804241, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9866393711804241, "spot_peer_score": 6.357229087445547, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -28.278970098040404, "baseline_archived_score": -32.15405500879949, "peer_archived_score": 7.277776444810043, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.357229087445547 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of October 5, 2024, Apple was the #1 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source." }, { "id": 30191, "title": "Will South Carolina have 400,000 or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-south-carolina-have-400000-or-more-residents-living-in-drought-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.469554Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.820265Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-18T19:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-18T19:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29986, "title": "Will South Carolina have 400,000 or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.469554Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-18T19:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-18T19:08:36.953862Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-18T19:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Nearly four weeks without rain, drought conditions creeping back in South Carolina](https://www.foxcarolina.com/2024/10/24/nearly-four-weeks-without-rain-drought-conditions-creeping-back-south-carolina/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/south-carolina) lists greater than or equal to 300,000 South Carolina residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 300,000, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 30191, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731955706.813769, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.7225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.803 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731955706.813769, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.7225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.803 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27749999999999997, 0.7225 ], "means": [ 0.6725548987326871 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9287429580134396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38858567791940646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35436393999175714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Nearly four weeks without rain, drought conditions creeping back in South Carolina](https://www.foxcarolina.com/2024/10/24/nearly-four-weeks-without-rain-drought-conditions-creeping-back-south-carolina/)" } ] }
