Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2060
{ "count": 6332, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2080", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2040", "results": [ { "id": 30190, "title": "Will Microsoft stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-microsoft-stock-continuously-remain-below-its-all-time-high-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.431530Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.160048Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29985, "title": "Will Microsoft stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-18T13:57:46.431530Z", "open_time": "2024-11-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T03:33:57.412694Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-19T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Microsoft remains below $468.35 continuously through December 31, 2024. If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/). ", "fine_print": "In case of forward or reverse stock splits, the price will be adjusted and resolved accordingly, based on comparison to the all-time high.", "post_id": 30190, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732028147.326668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5916336179941345 ], "centers": [ 0.6568999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8000000000000002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732028147.326668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5916336179941345 ], "centers": [ 0.6568999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8000000000000002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.34310000000000007, 0.6568999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.6812675019188205 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.46725551667819354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8418685522401064, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11596847140035654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17736266187768315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45921624194440414, 0.0, 0.7481477888612009, 0.21754664003485777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.8877074779046794, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.08058739733296, "peer_score": 18.026990142301607, "coverage": 0.9866343653698763, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9866343653698763, "spot_peer_score": -0.5805590377193592, "spot_baseline_score": 39.37456706608247, "baseline_archived_score": 61.08058739733296, "peer_archived_score": 18.026990142301607, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.5805590377193592, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 39.37456706608247 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)" }, { "id": 30124, "title": "On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?\n\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-december-31-2024-will-cruise-operate-a-rider-only-ride-hailing-service-anywhere-in-the-united-states", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:45.039448Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.885872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29954, "title": "On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?\n\n", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:45.039448Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:29:31.610603Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-coming-waymo-monopoly).\n\nCruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy self-driving vehicles. In late October 2023, Cruise [suspended](https://apnews.com/article/cruise-robotaxi-suspends-operations-gm-73f27ef959afe1e201e61f0fd31802d5) all driverless operations nationwide after California regulators ordered the company to remove its driverless cars from state roads, citing safety concerns and accusing Cruise of misrepresenting the technology's capabilities.\n\nThe California Department of Motor Vehicles [stated](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statement-on-cruise-llc-suspension/) that Cruise's driverless vehicles posed \"an unreasonable risk to public safety\" and that the company had provided misleading information about the safety of its self-driving system. This move by regulators came after a series of incidents involving Cruise vehicles, including crashes caused by the vehicles' abrupt braking.\n\nAdditionally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [is investigating](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/cruise-under-nhtsa-probe-into-autonomous-driving-pedestrian-injuries.html) multiple reports of Cruise self-driving cars engaging in inappropriately hard braking, resulting in collisions. The agency is seeking more information from Cruise regarding five new crash reports involving such incidents.\n\nCruise's suspension of driverless operations across the U.S. represents a major setback for the company and General Motors' ambitions in the autonomous vehicle space. The company has [stated](https://x.com/Cruise/status/1717707807460393022?s=20) that it would take time to examine its processes and rebuild public trust.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve \"Yes\" if credible sources indicate that rider-only ride-hailing trips operated by Cruise are available to the general public anywhere in the United States on December 31, 2024.", "fine_print": "- \"Rider-only\" means one in which the only humans in the car are passengers and no human operates the vehicle for the duration of the trip.\n- \"Available to the general public\" means that any member of the public is eligible to use the service without first joining a waitlist or having been granted use of the service as part of a limited testing or early access phase.\n- \"United States\" means the 50 states plus the District of Columbia.", "post_id": 30124, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731770977.190248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731770977.190248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.14002442775364052 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14719648515667086, 0.6850893156161345, 0.9511683097991879, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.6832333621873382, 0.7549731054070336, 0.34215028852106266, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5318655572458102, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9538159072926062, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3023204169672386, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.6704898138335, "peer_score": -0.8452465847391009, "coverage": 0.9994033902662772, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994033902662772, "spot_peer_score": 3.720094839285893, "spot_baseline_score": 81.55754288625727, "baseline_archived_score": 73.6704898138335, "peer_archived_score": -0.8452465847391009, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.720094839285893, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 81.55754288625727 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-coming-waymo-monopoly).\n\nCruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy self-driving vehicles. In late October 2023, Cruise [suspended](https://apnews.com/article/cruise-robotaxi-suspends-operations-gm-73f27ef959afe1e201e61f0fd31802d5) all driverless operations nationwide after California regulators ordered the company to remove its driverless cars from state roads, citing safety concerns and accusing Cruise of misrepresenting the technology's capabilities.\n\nThe California Department of Motor Vehicles [stated](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statement-on-cruise-llc-suspension/) that Cruise's driverless vehicles posed \"an unreasonable risk to public safety\" and that the company had provided misleading information about the safety of its self-driving system. This move by regulators came after a series of incidents involving Cruise vehicles, including crashes caused by the vehicles' abrupt braking.\n\nAdditionally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [is investigating](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/cruise-under-nhtsa-probe-into-autonomous-driving-pedestrian-injuries.html) multiple reports of Cruise self-driving cars engaging in inappropriately hard braking, resulting in collisions. The agency is seeking more information from Cruise regarding five new crash reports involving such incidents.\n\nCruise's suspension of driverless operations across the U.S. represents a major setback for the company and General Motors' ambitions in the autonomous vehicle space. The company has [stated](https://x.com/Cruise/status/1717707807460393022?s=20) that it would take time to examine its processes and rebuild public trust." }, { "id": 30123, "title": "Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-enact-export-controls-for-some-generative-ai-software-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:45.015908Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.500704Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29953, "title": "Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:45.015908Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:35:31.864065Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.\n\nAs the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if, before January 1, 2025, the US imposes export controls on some generative AI software, and NO otherwise.", "fine_print": "The export controls need not be specifically to China - anything under the standard export regime of the US would qualify.\n\nThe export controls must be specifically related to AI that can generate content. It is not sufficient if software produced by Microsoft or OpenAI cannot be exported to certain countries for other reasons - such as export bans on all software, or on all commercial products sold to certain countries.\n\nThese need to be actual export controls, as per the 2022 controls on semiconductors. Taxes or trade deals are not considered here.", "post_id": 30123, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766538.136237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4842 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766538.136237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4842 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.3828769744955779 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.9735522230331113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.2010418409121184, 0.5845127385508679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.09877132838432481, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 33.04561276372943, "peer_score": 0.8111087880577079, "coverage": 0.998738757904481, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.998738757904481, "spot_peer_score": -0.5572269254244979, "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 33.04561276372943, "peer_archived_score": 0.8111087880577079, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.5572269254244979, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.\n\nAs the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI." }, { "id": 30122, "title": "Before January 1, 2025, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-january-1-2025-will-the-international-criminal-court-issue-an-arrest-warrant-for-benjamin-netanyahu", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:44.988200Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.515548Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29952, "title": "Before January 1, 2025, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:44.988200Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T14:08:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5283, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\r\n\r\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\r\n\r\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\r\n\r\nSee Also\r\n\r\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if before January 1, 2025, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister).", "fine_print": "A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as Yes.\r\nSecret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before Jan 1, 2025. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before Jan 1, 2025, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.", "post_id": 30122, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766547.564045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2675 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766547.564045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2675 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7324999999999999, 0.2675 ], "means": [ 0.3299296578035125 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3620041531989578, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.11117524074178475, 0.0, 1.4552949559473565, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0839758874887769, 0.3268262380230357, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 1.0315454926338852, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.7371812401109382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -77.13520420840325, "peer_score": 25.72167791356511, "coverage": 0.9977463283803727, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9977463283803727, "spot_peer_score": 12.138362496863865, "spot_baseline_score": -90.23892033735775, "baseline_archived_score": -77.13520420840325, "peer_archived_score": 25.72167791356511, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.138362496863865, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -90.23892033735775 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\r\n\r\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\r\n\r\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\r\n\r\nSee Also\r\n\r\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)" }, { "id": 30121, "title": "Will Violet be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-violet-be-the-closest-color-to-the-2025-pantone-color-of-the-year", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:44.962934Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.957541Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29951, "title": "Will Violet be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:44.962934Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T18:38:22.296132Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 255 ≤ H < 330.", "fine_print": "- If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.\r\n- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.", "post_id": 30121, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766557.806827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.136 ], "centers": [ 0.2903 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766557.806827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.136 ], "centers": [ 0.2903 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7097, 0.2903 ], "means": [ 0.27705247508348246 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 1.5441244742781408, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.6441340422812852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.04842515677234604, 0.09877132838432481, 0.29095551644889905, 0.011364900518339544, 1.0273055807779088, 0.5507706624329844, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0171971430160318, 0.2010418409121184, 0.4087506853414205, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2602758877180714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 52.19404655241766, "peer_score": 15.723093822005904, "coverage": 0.9971220895013325, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9971220895013325, "spot_peer_score": 9.366128153457316, "spot_baseline_score": 50.52812114532668, "baseline_archived_score": 52.19404655241766, "peer_archived_score": 15.723093822005904, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.366128153457316, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 50.52812114532668 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown)." }, { "id": 30120, "title": "Will Blue be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-blue-be-the-closest-color-to-the-2025-pantone-color-of-the-year", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:44.941637Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.664188Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29950, "title": "Will Blue be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:44.941637Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T18:38:07.679945Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 165 ≤ H < 255.", "fine_print": "- If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.\r\n- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.", "post_id": 30120, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766566.571648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33737247198812065 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766566.571648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33737247198812065 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6626275280118794, 0.33737247198812065 ], "means": [ 0.4011771166258829 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 1.3300741017491136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.8916633893793723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.12966433094557198, 0.0, 1.093840000957555, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35490766944912944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2747971700063219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -0.3727452229386281, "peer_score": 0.4518491592111984, "coverage": 0.9963627356483982, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9963627356483982, "spot_peer_score": 24.854165482994738, "spot_baseline_score": 40.627004469405826, "baseline_archived_score": -0.3727452229386281, "peer_archived_score": 0.4518491592111984, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.854165482994738, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 40.627004469405826 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown)." }, { "id": 30119, "title": "Will Green be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-green-be-the-closest-color-to-the-2025-pantone-color-of-the-year", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.939040Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.791971Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29949, "title": "Will Green be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.939040Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:53.475028Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 75 ≤ H < 165.", "fine_print": "- If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.\r\n- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.", "post_id": 30119, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766576.96047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.20800000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766576.96047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.20800000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.792, 0.20800000000000002 ], "means": [ 0.3104660591328461 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 1.1795382101018643, 1.0014360183128659, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.5933357744281108, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16926099250120838, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22400851848619524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4436105835990434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 30.054517338850587, "peer_score": 12.743625363708125, "coverage": 0.9954628538312736, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9954628538312736, "spot_peer_score": 32.22054257718367, "spot_baseline_score": 66.35723354175227, "baseline_archived_score": 30.054517338850587, "peer_archived_score": 12.743625363708125, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.22054257718367, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 66.35723354175227 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown)." }, { "id": 30118, "title": "Will Yellow be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-yellow-be-the-closest-color-to-the-2025-pantone-color-of-the-year", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.918331Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.701412Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29948, "title": "Will Yellow be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.918331Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:37.534885Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 45 ≤ H < 75.", "fine_print": "- If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.\r\n- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.", "post_id": 30118, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766585.998521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22399999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766585.998521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22399999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.776, 0.22399999999999998 ], "means": [ 0.2346709972898523 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1335707525460808, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.21661591250644974, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.9234146250173129, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.11525585627893538, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.43163413112310406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.8786769446443468, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11486889005002407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 62.48028977805287, "peer_score": 11.925780208109481, "coverage": 0.9946655198490177, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9946655198490177, "spot_peer_score": 9.530824708321026, "spot_baseline_score": 63.412855752504065, "baseline_archived_score": 62.48028977805287, "peer_archived_score": 11.925780208109481, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.530824708321026, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 63.412855752504065 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown)." }, { "id": 30117, "title": "Will Orange be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-orange-be-the-closest-color-to-the-2025-pantone-color-of-the-year", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.898564Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.611418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29947, "title": "Will Orange be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.898564Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:21.447381Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 15 ≤ H < 45.", "fine_print": "- If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.\r\n- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.", "post_id": 30117, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766595.347863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.132 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28115 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766595.347863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.132 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28115 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.20270001986478545 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.030893002561247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.6602856756916111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4789264546165807, 0.0, 0.48452348365123593, 0.22827012898946356, 0.7549731054070336, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.9234146250173129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.7747625166761468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.29095551644889905, 0.7915655151651038, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24946699768446445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -121.75223937577258, "peer_score": 9.205195643816612, "coverage": 0.9935722381842358, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9935722381842358, "spot_peer_score": 10.734115004356703, "spot_baseline_score": -125.15387669959645, "baseline_archived_score": -121.75223937577258, "peer_archived_score": 9.205195643816612, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.734115004356703, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -125.15387669959645 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown)." }, { "id": 30116, "title": "Will Red be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-red-be-the-closest-color-to-the-2025-pantone-color-of-the-year", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.878018Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.054944Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29946, "title": "Will Red be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.878018Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-05T18:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T18:37:11.101982Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if H ≥ 330 OR H < 15.", "fine_print": "- If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.\r\n- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.", "post_id": 30116, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766603.996194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.256 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3018 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766603.996194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.256 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3018 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.744, 0.256 ], "means": [ 0.2506937598002839 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 1.134459373307331, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.4323821840106447, 0.0, 0.22150405058678926, 0.9120497244989734, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8166807884554648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.817018026668554, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.595541104562294, "peer_score": -0.11089187092149352, "coverage": 0.9928453482411528, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9928453482411528, "spot_peer_score": -0.7654932234619004, "spot_baseline_score": 57.337452644594435, "baseline_archived_score": 58.595541104562294, "peer_archived_score": -0.11089187092149352, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7654932234619004, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 57.337452644594435 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its \"[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)\", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.\r\n\r\nHere are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved\r\n\r\n- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)\r\n- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)\r\n- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)\r\n- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)\r\n- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)\r\n- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)\r\n- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)\r\n- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)\r\n- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)\r\n- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)\r\n\r\nThe Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown)." }, { "id": 30115, "title": "Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-north-korea-deploy-military-personnel-to-ukraine-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.857465Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.351780Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T12:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29945, "title": "Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.857465Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T12:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:11:33.517454Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "North Korea and Russia have significantly strenghened their military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine. In September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [visited Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66810830), meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential military and economic collaboration. In early November 2024, Ukraine [fought](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14le0p4310o) North Korean troops for the first time, while [more recent reports](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/10/europe/russia-north-korea-forces-prepared-kursk-ukraine/index.html) claim that 10,000 [North Korean troops](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army) will join Russian soldiers in an attempt to take back the Ukraine-occupied region of Kursk.\r\n\r\n[Moreover](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/i/151515209/asia)\r\n\r\n> South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600K to 700K tonnes of rice to North Korea, $200M, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.\r\n\r\nHowever, until November 12, 2024, there have been no reports of North Korean troops in Ukrainian soil.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that at least 100 North Korean troops have entered Ukrainian soil before January 1, 2025.\r\n\r\n If no credible reports indicate the simultaneous presence of 100 or more North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "- Ukrainian soil is defined based on the pre-2014 internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.\r\n- This question pertains only to personnel who have been members of any of the five branches of North Korea's military forces, the Korean People's Army.\r\n- This question will resolve based on the best information available as of January 7, 2025.\r\n- For purposes of this question, troops will count as North Korean military personnel if they are identified as such by credible sources. This is true even in the event of edge cases such as them wearing non-North Korean insignia, being under the command of Russian officers, or being deployed as part of multinational units. \r\n- Non-combat roles such as logistical support count as well, as long as the North Korean personnel are present on pre-2014 Ukrainian soil.", "post_id": 30115, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731766614.268791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731766614.268791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5216689349659949 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9865143749467873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7513785061179565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 2.070889987626511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10760738615800111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -69.27007599463951, "peer_score": -2.872978294872322, "coverage": 0.9918792270593071, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9918792270593071, "spot_peer_score": 27.47447451605707, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -69.27007599463951, "peer_archived_score": -2.872978294872322, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.47447451605707, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "North Korea and Russia have significantly strenghened their military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine. In September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [visited Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66810830), meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential military and economic collaboration. In early November 2024, Ukraine [fought](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14le0p4310o) North Korean troops for the first time, while [more recent reports](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/10/europe/russia-north-korea-forces-prepared-kursk-ukraine/index.html) claim that 10,000 [North Korean troops](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army) will join Russian soldiers in an attempt to take back the Ukraine-occupied region of Kursk.\r\n\r\n[Moreover](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/i/151515209/asia)\r\n\r\n> South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600K to 700K tonnes of rice to North Korea, $200M, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.\r\n\r\nHowever, until November 12, 2024, there have been no reports of North Korean troops in Ukrainian soil." }, { "id": 30114, "title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-astro-bot-win-the-game-of-the-year-2024-award", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.551807Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.253895Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T13:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29944, "title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.551807Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T13:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T13:35:28.458606Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November.\n\n[Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Astro Bot wins the Game of the Year award for 2024 at [The Game Awards](https://thegameawards.com/). If the awards ceremony takes place and Astro Bot does not win Game of the Year, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The Game Awards ceremony is [currently scheduled](https://thegameawards.com/watch) for December 12, 2024. Any delays will still count. However, if the ceremony does not take place before January 1, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**. \n\nIf Astro Bot shares the Game of the Year award it will still count.", "post_id": 30114, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731767424.758808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.493 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731767424.758808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.493 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.4143172832212405 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 1.4265517967054289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0986957085250921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1989524413442383, 0.0, 0.6562642058017948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10814993964073923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -15.457947713665478, "peer_score": -4.039724629888437, "coverage": 0.9911240047685528, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9911240047685528, "spot_peer_score": -15.276721695204378, "spot_baseline_score": -39.592867633113926, "baseline_archived_score": -15.457947713665478, "peer_archived_score": -4.039724629888437, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -15.276721695204378, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -39.592867633113926 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November.\n\n[Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY." }, { "id": 30113, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-international-criminal-court-issue-any-warrants-in-november-or-december-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.530650Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.553034Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29943, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.530650Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T14:08:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5283, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.\r\n\r\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 11, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for any individual, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If there are no reports of the ICC issuing any arrest warrants during that period, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Summonses to appear will not count. For more information please see the ICC's [How the Court works](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works), especially the following, under *Investigations*:\r\n\r\n>After gathering evidence and identifying a suspect, the Prosecution requests ICC judges to issue:\r\n>1. an arrest warrant: the ICC relies on countries to make arrests and transfer suspects to the ICC; or\r\n>2. a summons to appear: suspects appear voluntarily (if not, an arrest warrant may be issued).\r\n\r\nSecret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before January 1, 2025. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before January 1, 2025, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.", "post_id": 30113, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731768259.326226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4239745765176501 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731768259.326226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4239745765176501 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.33066680552426014 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7801619252237224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.24418868951516343, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15612734595056516, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.744192667710192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7438639832482066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -39.614961301487554, "peer_score": 26.439141901575947, "coverage": 0.9904509606819463, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9904509606819463, "spot_peer_score": 17.096967026280772, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -39.614961301487554, "peer_archived_score": 26.439141901575947, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.096967026280772, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.\r\n\r\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued." }, { "id": 30112, "title": "Will a country change its official name before Jan 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-country-change-its-official-name-before-jan-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.509669Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.843676Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29942, "title": "Will a country change its official name before Jan 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.509669Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:28:48.718756Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Changing a country’s name is relatively rare, typically motivated by political, historical, or national reconciliation reasons. The United Kingdom maintains [a list of such changes it has recognized](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/country-names/timeline-of-country-name-changes-in-hmg-use-1919-to-present) for its official communications since 1922.\n\nFor instance, Macedonia changed its name to North Macedonia in 2019 for [diplomatic purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macedonia_naming_dispute). \n\n[This Wikipedia article has a non-exhaustive list of such changes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographical_renaming#Countries).", "resolution_criteria": "For a name change to be recognized, it must be confirmed by an official declaration from the state but does not need to be validated by major international organizations.", "fine_print": "- Only full UN members will be considered. A country has to be a member of the UN during its name change to resolve this question.\n- If an existing country splits into two or more new countries, this question will not resolve if one of them keeps the official name of the original country and remains in the UN.\n- Any change in the official name of the country would resolve this question. For example Greece changing its official name from Hellenic Republic to Republic of Hellas would count.", "post_id": 30112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731769075.808898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.071 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731769075.808898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.071 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05450276870754104 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4151124147365461, 0.6854559460994392, 1.2188564438547367, 0.48480115213825536, 2.014102986688757, 0.0, 0.9724602874510355, 1.4421034484795499, 0.0, 0.26389250470094455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 90.97971403382888, "peer_score": 0.7388048502263994, "coverage": 0.9898647951031172, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9898647951031172, "spot_peer_score": 1.0166869489200705, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 90.97971403382888, "peer_archived_score": 0.7388048502263994, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.0166869489200705, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Changing a country’s name is relatively rare, typically motivated by political, historical, or national reconciliation reasons. The United Kingdom maintains [a list of such changes it has recognized](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/country-names/timeline-of-country-name-changes-in-hmg-use-1919-to-present) for its official communications since 1922.\n\nFor instance, Macedonia changed its name to North Macedonia in 2019 for [diplomatic purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macedonia_naming_dispute). \n\n[This Wikipedia article has a non-exhaustive list of such changes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographical_renaming#Countries)." }, { "id": 30111, "title": "Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usdas-center-for-veterinary-biologics-grant-a-license-for-a-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5-vaccine-in-dairy-cattle-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.489443Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.974383Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29941, "title": "Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.489443Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:37.950684Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), HPAI has hit dairy cattle hard, with 473 [herds testing positive](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm), as of November 8, 2024. Mostly mild in cows (with most cows [reportedly](https://hoards.com/article-34969-how-will-avian-influenza-impact-milk-supply.html) being asymptomatic and most of those that get sick recovering within 3 weeks), HPAI primary affects [older cows](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(24)00112-1/fulltext), leading to decreased milk production from an industry standpoint. While mortality in cows [is low](https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2024/05/10/usda-hhs-announce-new-actions-reduce-impact-and-spread-h5n1), from a public health standpoint there is potentially a risk of spillover of H5N1 Influenza from cattle to humans, which might under certain circumstances lead to an epidemic. According to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, testing from the CDC [has found](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/studies-find-little-no-immunity-h5n1-avian-flu-virus-americans) that the American population has little to no pre-existing immunity to the H5N1 virus that is circulating on farms.\n\nH5N1 has been [detected in milk](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7321e1.htm) as well as being [spread to farm workers](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotlights/protect-farm-workers-bird-flu.html). Therefore a potential useful line of defense in protecting human public health would be an H5 vaccine for dairy cows.\n\nIn May 2023, the US Department of Agriculture's Center for Veterinary Biologics (USDA-CVB) [began testing](https://www.avma.org/news/usda-starts-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-vaccine-trials) vaccines for HPAI. On August 28, 2024, it [expanded](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/program-update/cvb-notice-24-13-field-studies-nonviable-non-replicating-veterinary-vaccines) to authorize field trials. The advantage of field trials is that the studies are no longer required to be conducted in containment facilities. For further details of the field studies authorization including protocols please see [CVB Notice NO. 24-13 (pdf)](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-13.pdf)\n\nThe USDA-CVB is [accepting applications](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-11.pdf) for the licensure of vaccines for livestock, including dairy cattle under the following pathways: \n\n>Conditional Licensure – CVB will consider serological response in vaccinated target species as data to support a reasonable expectation of efficacy. Serological testing should focus on antibodies to the H5 clade 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin using an assay such as or similar to the hemagglutination inhibition assay. \n\n>Full Licensure – Currently CVB will only consider studies using vaccinationchallenge with H5 HPAI in the target species, along with all other licensure requirements, to obtain full licensure. Note the recent [Select Agent Exemption for H5 HPAI](https://www.selectagents.gov/sat/exemptions/avian-influenza.htm). Study protocols should be submitted to CVB for review.\n\nAs of 11 November 2024, one company that has begun field trials is veterinary pharmaceutical and biotechnology company Medgene Labs, which [is expecting](https://kbhbradio.com/south-dakota-company-begins-trials-on-h5n1-avian-flu-vaccine-for-dairy-cows/) to complete its H5 vaccine study in December 2024 and share its results with the USDA at that time.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the US Department of Agriculture's [Center for Veterinary Biologics](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/veterinary-biologics) (USDA-CVB) grants or issues a full or conditional license for a vaccine against H5 [Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza) (HPAI) to be administered to dairy cattle in the United States.\n\nIf this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Authorized field studies do not in themselves count as licensure, nor does early access use or experimental use. \n\nIf USDA-CVB approves the vaccine for a larger group that includes dairy cattle (such as for livestock), that will count. Any approval that does not include dairy cattle will not.\n\nPlease note that, as USDA-CVB says in [NOTICE NO. 24-11](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-11.pdf), \"U.S. licensure is distinct from authorization for U.S. use.\" For purposes of this question, conditional licensure or full licensure are sufficient to resolve this question as Yes. \n\nAny vaccine for H5 strains of HPAI will count, including but not limited to H5N1, and regardless of clade, including but not limited to clade 2.3.4.4b, as long as it is associated with the current HPAI outbreak.", "post_id": 30111, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731769941.111473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.311 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4119 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731769941.111473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.311 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4119 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6890000000000001, 0.311 ], "means": [ 0.3300279804382733 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7557233603953178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6194141030607017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.05181454149830181, 1.7899162702652016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.25497155913411557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11822116287106943, 0.5686453819704269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.24205791512874625, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.84247669445858, "peer_score": 7.114124036735795, "coverage": 0.9891120189124791, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9891120189124791, "spot_peer_score": 1.1281601556999286, "spot_baseline_score": 46.25758880422043, "baseline_archived_score": 55.84247669445858, "peer_archived_score": 7.114124036735795, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.1281601556999286, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 46.25758880422043 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), HPAI has hit dairy cattle hard, with 473 [herds testing positive](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm), as of November 8, 2024. Mostly mild in cows (with most cows [reportedly](https://hoards.com/article-34969-how-will-avian-influenza-impact-milk-supply.html) being asymptomatic and most of those that get sick recovering within 3 weeks), HPAI primary affects [older cows](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(24)00112-1/fulltext), leading to decreased milk production from an industry standpoint. While mortality in cows [is low](https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2024/05/10/usda-hhs-announce-new-actions-reduce-impact-and-spread-h5n1), from a public health standpoint there is potentially a risk of spillover of H5N1 Influenza from cattle to humans, which might under certain circumstances lead to an epidemic. According to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, testing from the CDC [has found](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/studies-find-little-no-immunity-h5n1-avian-flu-virus-americans) that the American population has little to no pre-existing immunity to the H5N1 virus that is circulating on farms.\n\nH5N1 has been [detected in milk](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7321e1.htm) as well as being [spread to farm workers](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotlights/protect-farm-workers-bird-flu.html). Therefore a potential useful line of defense in protecting human public health would be an H5 vaccine for dairy cows.\n\nIn May 2023, the US Department of Agriculture's Center for Veterinary Biologics (USDA-CVB) [began testing](https://www.avma.org/news/usda-starts-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-vaccine-trials) vaccines for HPAI. On August 28, 2024, it [expanded](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/program-update/cvb-notice-24-13-field-studies-nonviable-non-replicating-veterinary-vaccines) to authorize field trials. The advantage of field trials is that the studies are no longer required to be conducted in containment facilities. For further details of the field studies authorization including protocols please see [CVB Notice NO. 24-13 (pdf)](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-13.pdf)\n\nThe USDA-CVB is [accepting applications](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-11.pdf) for the licensure of vaccines for livestock, including dairy cattle under the following pathways: \n\n>Conditional Licensure – CVB will consider serological response in vaccinated target species as data to support a reasonable expectation of efficacy. Serological testing should focus on antibodies to the H5 clade 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin using an assay such as or similar to the hemagglutination inhibition assay. \n\n>Full Licensure – Currently CVB will only consider studies using vaccinationchallenge with H5 HPAI in the target species, along with all other licensure requirements, to obtain full licensure. Note the recent [Select Agent Exemption for H5 HPAI](https://www.selectagents.gov/sat/exemptions/avian-influenza.htm). Study protocols should be submitted to CVB for review.\n\nAs of 11 November 2024, one company that has begun field trials is veterinary pharmaceutical and biotechnology company Medgene Labs, which [is expecting](https://kbhbradio.com/south-dakota-company-begins-trials-on-h5n1-avian-flu-vaccine-for-dairy-cows/) to complete its H5 vaccine study in December 2024 and share its results with the USDA at that time." }, { "id": 30110, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bitcoin-dominance-exceed-630-on-any-single-day-in-november-or-december-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.462329Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.501357Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T13:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29940, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-15T14:08:43.462329Z", "open_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T13:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:24:12.841754Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-16T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies combined. BTC dominance has fluctuated over the years. It reached a low of 38.3% in 2022, but has been steadily rising since, achieving a local peak of 60.0% on November 13, 2024.\n\nThe rise could be attributed to multiple factors. The SEC's [approval](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-gives-green-light-options-listing-spot-bitcoin-etfs-nyse-2024-10-18/) of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 increased accessibility for mainstream investors, drawing significant capital into BTC. Donald Trump's re-election might have further driven the rise in BTC dominance as, according to [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89v1w5lxxqo):\n\n> In the run-up to the election Trump said he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint digital asset-friendly financial regulators - spurring expectations that he would strip back regulations on the crypto industry.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 5 January 2025, [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) reports a Bitcoin dominance value of 63.1% or higher for any single date in November or December 2024.", "fine_print": "If CoinMarketCap is unavailable or does not report the relevant data between January 1 and January 5, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 30110, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731770880.939185, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.558989760464627 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731770880.939185, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.558989760464627 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4538109239722229 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9227388757853525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6674701426484752, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.040387528095117, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7540625191977606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8720104955769312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.5496523818350643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -16.836124201764488, "peer_score": 4.563484849580497, "coverage": 0.9883569290985664, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9883569290985664, "spot_peer_score": 10.23352805211801, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -16.836124201764488, "peer_archived_score": 4.563484849580497, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.23352805211801, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies combined. BTC dominance has fluctuated over the years. It reached a low of 38.3% in 2022, but has been steadily rising since, achieving a local peak of 60.0% on November 13, 2024.\n\nThe rise could be attributed to multiple factors. The SEC's [approval](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-gives-green-light-options-listing-spot-bitcoin-etfs-nyse-2024-10-18/) of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 increased accessibility for mainstream investors, drawing significant capital into BTC. Donald Trump's re-election might have further driven the rise in BTC dominance as, according to [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89v1w5lxxqo):\n\n> In the run-up to the election Trump said he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint digital asset-friendly financial regulators - spurring expectations that he would strip back regulations on the crypto industry." }, { "id": 30074, "title": "Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-1-euro-be-worth-less-than-1-us-dollar-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:45.064384Z", "published_at": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.704223Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29917, "title": "Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:45.064384Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T03:35:50.835312Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After reaching its maximum of `1.5852` in July 2008 the EUR/USD exchange rate has significantly declined over the years. In September-October 2022 there was a brief period when the price of 1 EUR was less than 1 USD. Since then, the Euro price recovered slightly and reached an exchange rate of `1.1038` US dollar on 01.01.2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between 1 January 2024 and 1 January 2025, the EUR/USD exchange rate as [reported by Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD) is less than `1.0000`.", "fine_print": "Should Google Finance become unavailable, alternative sources like xe.com or Yahoo Finance can be used.\n\nIf the Euro or US Dollar ceases to exist before the resolution date, the question will be annulled.", "post_id": 30074, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731680129.863553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11666666666666668 ], "centers": [ 0.3050480054303672 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5375 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731680129.863553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11666666666666668 ], "centers": [ 0.3050480054303672 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5375 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6949519945696327, 0.3050480054303672 ], "means": [ 0.30886029372449453 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.24311673443421403, 1.1848204221051952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.111277215629205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.5526853407020484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.7197661834970732, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.24841220022046556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03411561381977573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 57.00915259246375, "peer_score": 19.259118107544406, "coverage": 0.999074232859744, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999074232859744, "spot_peer_score": 9.644626719518891, "spot_baseline_score": 47.49852288648651, "baseline_archived_score": 57.00915259246375, "peer_archived_score": 19.259118107544406, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.644626719518891, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 47.49852288648651 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After reaching its maximum of `1.5852` in July 2008 the EUR/USD exchange rate has significantly declined over the years. In September-October 2022 there was a brief period when the price of 1 EUR was less than 1 USD. Since then, the Euro price recovered slightly and reached an exchange rate of `1.1038` US dollar on 01.01.2024." }, { "id": 30073, "title": "Will the United Nations have exactly 193 member states on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-united-nations-have-exactly-193-member-states-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:45.042492Z", "published_at": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.105124Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29916, "title": "Will the United Nations have exactly 193 member states on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:45.042492Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:40:02.575385Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the official number of United Nations member states is exactly 193 on December 31, 2024 when checked by Metaculus. It will resolve negatively if the number of member states is not 193. The mechanism of checking will be to access [this specific link](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states) from the UN. The Admin resolving the question will hit control-F and count the number of instances of \"Date of Admission\" on the page. ", "fine_print": "If the United Nations as an organization ceases to exist before the resolution date, this question will be annulled. ", "post_id": 30073, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731680141.467454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9440000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.965 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731680141.467454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9440000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.965 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8759764001688942 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8981326213582779, 0.28147862720218586, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.10527918291777463, 4.479367534107401, 1.097078341557532, 0.10060271610369056, 0.5516766655207717, 0.9986946187243765 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.51783830794082, "peer_score": 11.698213641531638, "coverage": 0.9982026577658123, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9982026577658123, "spot_peer_score": 12.900082142116078, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 92.51783830794082, "peer_archived_score": 11.698213641531638, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.900082142116078, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members" }, { "id": 30072, "title": "Before 2025, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-2025-will-openais-commercial-operations-cease-to-be-governed-by-its-nonprofit-board-of-directors", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:45.021126Z", "published_at": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.748208Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29915, "title": "Before 2025, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:45.021126Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:41:09.695880Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "OpenAI Inc., a Delaware 501(c)3 nonprofit corporation, was founded in late 2015. At its [inception](https://web.archive.org/web/20151222103150/https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/), OpenAI's mission and corporate structure were intended to maximize and broadly distribute the benefits of AI for humanity while minimizing the risks of such a potentially transformative—and possibly harmful—technology.\n\nThe [tumultuous events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#2023%E2%80%93present:_Brief_departure_of_Altman_and_Brockman) of November 17-21, 2023 culminated in a [reconstitution](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/22/sam-altmans-back-heres-whos-on-the-new-openai-board-and-whos-out.html) of the nonprofit's board of directors and, along with it, [speculation](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/technology/openai-board-capitalists.html) regarding whether the company's original mission and structure will remain intact.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that OpenAI's commercial operations (such operations, as of the writing of this question, are housed under OpenAI Global LLC) are no longer governed by the nonprofit board of directors of OpenAI Inc.\n\n* **Resolution in the Event of Restructuring, Merger, etc.**—If, through corporate restructuring, merger, acquisition, transfer of assets (including intellectual property) or by other means, all or a substantial portion of OpenAI's commercial operations are transferred to another entity that is not controlled by the nonprofit board of directors of OpenAI, this question would resolve \"Yes\".\n\n* **Resolution in the Event of a Mass Departure of Staff to a Competitor or New Entity**—If within a 180-day period, more than 50% of employees of OpenAI Global LLC (or a successor entity that is still under the control of the nonprofit board) housing OpenAI's commercial activities become employees of another single entity that is not controlled by the nonprofit board of OpenAI Inc., this would be considered a substantial transfer of OpenAI's intellectual property, and this question would resolve \"Yes\".", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 30072, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731680151.255996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19166666666666668 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67155 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731680151.255996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19166666666666668 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67155 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.433800195398006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8550999668332966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 1.053825225202456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8354877802743572, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.9238200452096865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40631712137182807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24825259445393932, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05731836786094527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9536672171748533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 6.737129730607069, "peer_score": 26.020212858449316, "coverage": 0.9975395535429318, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9975395535429318, "spot_peer_score": 45.569047095908935, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 6.737129730607069, "peer_archived_score": 26.020212858449316, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 45.569047095908935, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI Inc., a Delaware 501(c)3 nonprofit corporation, was founded in late 2015. At its [inception](https://web.archive.org/web/20151222103150/https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/), OpenAI's mission and corporate structure were intended to maximize and broadly distribute the benefits of AI for humanity while minimizing the risks of such a potentially transformative—and possibly harmful—technology.\n\nThe [tumultuous events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#2023%E2%80%93present:_Brief_departure_of_Altman_and_Brockman) of November 17-21, 2023 culminated in a [reconstitution](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/22/sam-altmans-back-heres-whos-on-the-new-openai-board-and-whos-out.html) of the nonprofit's board of directors and, along with it, [speculation](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/technology/openai-board-capitalists.html) regarding whether the company's original mission and structure will remain intact." }, { "id": 30071, "title": "Will Kalshi outrank the Wells Fargo Mobile App in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kalshi-outrank-the-wells-fargo-mobile-app-in-the-top-free-finance-apps-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:44.998462Z", "published_at": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.276994Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29914, "title": "Will Kalshi outrank the Wells Fargo Mobile App in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-14T14:14:44.998462Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:41:55.507808Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-15T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi has spectular near-term success in building its userbase, as surpassing the Wells Fargo app (currently ranked #13) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election. In addition, Kalshi has also announced it would pay interest on user deposits.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2024, according to the Apple App Store at [this link](https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone/finance-apps/6015?chart=top-free), on or after December 31, 2024 Kalshi has a higher rank than the Wells Fargo Mobile App when accessed by Metaculus Admins. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 30071, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731680161.269797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3177 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5920000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731680161.269797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3177 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5920000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6823, 0.3177 ], "means": [ 0.37585414924846555 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0006804744517646, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.36062787721102224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 1.1038911858716258, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.12637014538023153, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05272754794558683, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9339806081280183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 42.03415145894463, "peer_score": 21.715079911936368, "coverage": 0.9967596341090068, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9967596341090068, "spot_peer_score": 23.007194501006794, "spot_baseline_score": 44.847812141147706, "baseline_archived_score": 42.03415145894463, "peer_archived_score": 21.715079911936368, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.007194501006794, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.847812141147706 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi has spectular near-term success in building its userbase, as surpassing the Wells Fargo app (currently ranked #13) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election. In addition, Kalshi has also announced it would pay interest on user deposits." } ] }
