Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2080
{ "count": 5959, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2100", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2060", "results": [ { "id": 28237, "title": "Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025?", "short_title": "Sudan Food Security During 2024 Harvest", "url_title": "Sudan Food Security During 2024 Harvest", "slug": "sudan-food-security-during-2024-harvest", "author_id": 119381, "author_username": "MoEL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-17T09:09:45.370975Z", "published_at": "2024-09-18T09:10:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.547256Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-18T09:10:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T09:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T09:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 7, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28237, "title": "Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025?", "created_at": "2024-09-17T09:09:45.370975Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T09:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T09:10:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T09:10:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T09:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-01T09:52:16.625939Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sudan has experienced a rapid deterioration in food security due to ongoing conflict, displacement, and economic shocks. According to the [IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis](https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1157066/?iso3=SDN), 25.6 million people (54% of the population) faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between June and September 2024. Although the harvest season from October 2024 to February 2025 is expected to slightly improve food availability and stabilize prices, the magnitude of food insecurity is still projected to remain significant, with an estimated 21.1 million people at risk of IPC Phase 3 or above. This question focuses on whether the situation will improve enough to bring the number of people facing high acute food insecurity below 20 million by the end of the 2024 harvest season.", "resolution_criteria": "Yes: Official IPC or similar credible reports confirm that fewer than 20 million people are in IPC Phase 3 or above during the period of October 2024 - February 2025.\n\nNo: More than 20 million people are reported in IPC Phase 3 or above during this period.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28237, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740693026.760163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740693026.760163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04876990461554759 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.1963505280436655, 0.6643928047021255, 0.876931883579203, 1.6743432256833377, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 45.07671949333001, "peer_score": 0.9944255872450036, "coverage": 0.9992962053020037, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9992962053020037, "spot_peer_score": 0.0010014470910697324, "spot_baseline_score": 33.799646351501586, "baseline_archived_score": 45.07671949333001, "peer_archived_score": 0.9944255872450036, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0010014470910697324, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 33.799646351501586 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289633.69085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289633.69085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7808513022184786, 0.21914869778152132 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sudan has experienced a rapid deterioration in food security due to ongoing conflict, displacement, and economic shocks. According to the [IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis](https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1157066/?iso3=SDN), 25.6 million people (54% of the population) faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between June and September 2024. Although the harvest season from October 2024 to February 2025 is expected to slightly improve food availability and stabilize prices, the magnitude of food insecurity is still projected to remain significant, with an estimated 21.1 million people at risk of IPC Phase 3 or above. This question focuses on whether the situation will improve enough to bring the number of people facing high acute food insecurity below 20 million by the end of the 2024 harvest season." }, { "id": 28235, "title": "Will Tibet Drive roadway repairs be completed on time? (120 days)", "short_title": "Tibet Drive roadway repairs", "url_title": "Tibet Drive roadway repairs", "slug": "tibet-drive-roadway-repairs", "author_id": 209468, "author_username": "Breezer54", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-17T01:36:52.090901Z", "published_at": "2024-09-17T01:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.447606Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-17T01:37:03Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-17T01:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3623, "name": "The City of Gulf Breeze, Florida", "type": "community", "slug": "gulfbreeze", "description": "This page is for residents of <a href=\"https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/\">Gulf Breeze</a>, FL and focuses on forecasting local events, trends, and challenges affecting our coastal community. It covers topics such as hurricane impact predictions, economic development, environmental changes, and public policy shifts. \r\n\r\nAnyone is welcome to forecast, but I would especially like to see forecasts by GB residents! Want to add a question? <a href=\"mailto: b59612345@gmail.com\r\n\">Email me</a>!", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_8.07.43PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/us-flgbr.gif", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3623, "name": "The City of Gulf Breeze, Florida", "type": "community", "slug": "gulfbreeze", "description": "This page is for residents of <a href=\"https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/\">Gulf Breeze</a>, FL and focuses on forecasting local events, trends, and challenges affecting our coastal community. It covers topics such as hurricane impact predictions, economic development, environmental changes, and public policy shifts. \r\n\r\nAnyone is welcome to forecast, but I would especially like to see forecasts by GB residents! Want to add a question? <a href=\"mailto: b59612345@gmail.com\r\n\">Email me</a>!", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_8.07.43PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/us-flgbr.gif", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 28235, "title": "Will Tibet Drive roadway repairs be completed on time? (120 days)", "created_at": "2024-09-17T01:36:52.090901Z", "open_time": "2024-09-17T01:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-20T01:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-20T01:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-14T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-14T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Repairs started September 16, 2024. Weather permitting work is expected to be completed in 120 days.", "resolution_criteria": "Yes if resolved within 120 days", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28235, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736547475.880524, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736547475.880524, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7972066168338773 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2277718867308072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289134.678914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289134.678914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2942922819309881, 0.7057077180690119 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Repairs started September 16, 2024. Weather permitting work is expected to be completed in 120 days." }, { "id": 28234, "title": "Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Large tech company layoffs this month?", "url_title": "Large tech company layoffs this month?", "slug": "large-tech-company-layoffs-this-month", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-16T23:57:04.947001Z", "published_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.054997Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28234, "title": "Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-16T23:57:04.947001Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Layoffs at some of the largest, most successful tech companies have [become all-too-common](https://www.vox.com/money/23691406/layoffs-history-job-insecurity-corporate-downsizing-q-a) in recent months and years, in a [layoff wave](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/02/03/tech-layoffs-us-economy-google-microsoft/) that began in 2022. Some context on the companies listed in this question is as follows:\n\nOn September 16, 2024, Amazon [ordered](https://nypost.com/2024/09/16/business/amazon-orders-employees-to-return-to-the-office-5-days-a-week/) its workers back into the office five days a week and warned of restructurings. In 2024 TechCrunch (TC) listed layoff events in January and February.\n\nApple had layoff events listed by TC in February, April and August 2024. The August event [involved](https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/28/24230344/apple-job-layoffs-books-news-apps-digital-services) workers across its books and news apps in its digital services division. \n\nGoogle had layoff events in January, April, May, and June. \n\nIBM slashed jobs in March, according to TC. IBM additionally has one of the most active rumor boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/international-business-machines)\n\nMeta/Facebook has no listings for 2024 according to TC, though had mass layoff events in 2022 and 2023.\n\nNvidia famously [eschews layoffs](https://www.indiatimes.com/worth/news/torture-them-into-greatness-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-doesnt-believe-in-firing-employees-636165.html) though recently has experienced [delays in shipments](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/business/nvidia-stocks.html) of its newest AI chips, following a recent [hiring binge](https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/booming-stock-and-sky-high-pay-nvidia-is-silicon-valleys-hot-employer-e4fb6c20).\n \nOracle has one of the most active layoff boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/oracle) but has not yet had layoff events listed by TC in 2024. \n\nSalesforce had layoff events listed by TC in January and July 2024 and was recently added to the most active boards at TheLayOff.com.\n\nTesla had multiple layoff events listed by TC in April 2024, when it [slashed](https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-layoffs-elon-musk-email-29388d4e?mod=article_inline) more than 10% of its workforce.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker *A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs*, which currently can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/12/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), one of the following listed companies has layoffs in September 2024:\n\n- Amazon \n- Apple\n- Google or Alphabet\n- IBM\n- Meta or Facebook\n- Nvidia \n- Oracle\n- Salesforce\n- Tesla\n\nIf no layoff event is listed under the September 2024 section for any of the above companies, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. \n\nIf on October 1, 2024, the time stamp on the resolution source is not September 30, 2024 or later, resolution will wait until up to October 7, 2024, for the entire month of September to be shown. If on October 7, 2024 the time stamp is not September 30, 2024 or later, this question resolves based on what is displayed at the resolution source at the time. \n\nIn order to count, the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, if there is a layoff event at Waymo, it will not count for purposes of this question unless the subheading mentions Alphabet or Google, even though Waymo is owned by Alphabet.\n\nTech Crunch's layoffs tracker dynamically updates its URL based on the last update. This question resolves based on the most recent version of the page that encompasses the month of September through September 30.", "post_id": 28234, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727624358.329508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727624358.329508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02333156516535679 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9918664771392256, 7.588355377885596, 0.9672835572779389, 0.8006118528797161, 0.0, 1.3014028502943646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23059971548004934, 0.0780945946412779, 0.26631371648600644, 0.03249305809127576, 0.05144413896398135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0928631009331482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014505757420011789, 0.008902640948057735, 0.04113337300434987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10452470613861276, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0105689540850258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014303523946117215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004923348169013251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.802071857571057, "coverage": 0.9999881286263389, "baseline_score": 64.58671870361273, "spot_peer_score": 22.728214033034092, "peer_archived_score": 16.802071857571057, "baseline_archived_score": 64.58671870361273, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.728214033034092 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727624358.375021, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727624358.375021, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9989555999747611, 0.001044400025238856 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 251, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Layoffs at some of the largest, most successful tech companies have [become all-too-common](https://www.vox.com/money/23691406/layoffs-history-job-insecurity-corporate-downsizing-q-a) in recent months and years, in a [layoff wave](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/02/03/tech-layoffs-us-economy-google-microsoft/) that began in 2022. Some context on the companies listed in this question is as follows:\n\nOn September 16, 2024, Amazon [ordered](https://nypost.com/2024/09/16/business/amazon-orders-employees-to-return-to-the-office-5-days-a-week/) its workers back into the office five days a week and warned of restructurings. In 2024 TechCrunch (TC) listed layoff events in January and February.\n\nApple had layoff events listed by TC in February, April and August 2024. The August event [involved](https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/28/24230344/apple-job-layoffs-books-news-apps-digital-services) workers across its books and news apps in its digital services division. \n\nGoogle had layoff events in January, April, May, and June. \n\nIBM slashed jobs in March, according to TC. IBM additionally has one of the most active rumor boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/international-business-machines)\n\nMeta/Facebook has no listings for 2024 according to TC, though had mass layoff events in 2022 and 2023.\n\nNvidia famously [eschews layoffs](https://www.indiatimes.com/worth/news/torture-them-into-greatness-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-doesnt-believe-in-firing-employees-636165.html) though recently has experienced [delays in shipments](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/business/nvidia-stocks.html) of its newest AI chips, following a recent [hiring binge](https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/booming-stock-and-sky-high-pay-nvidia-is-silicon-valleys-hot-employer-e4fb6c20).\n \nOracle has one of the most active layoff boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/oracle) but has not yet had layoff events listed by TC in 2024. \n\nSalesforce had layoff events listed by TC in January and July 2024 and was recently added to the most active boards at TheLayOff.com.\n\nTesla had multiple layoff events listed by TC in April 2024, when it [slashed](https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-layoffs-elon-musk-email-29388d4e?mod=article_inline) more than 10% of its workforce." }, { "id": 28229, "title": "Will the Vice President be sworn in as President after January 21, 2025 and before January 14, 2029?", "short_title": "Will the VP become president before 2029?", "url_title": "Will the VP become president before 2029?", "slug": "will-the-vp-become-president-before-2029", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-16T19:08:27.944914Z", "published_at": "2024-10-08T13:08:44.041839Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T16:41:53.711799Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-08T13:08:44.041837Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-10T13:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28229, "title": "Will the Vice President be sworn in as President after January 21, 2025 and before January 14, 2029?", "created_at": "2024-09-16T19:08:27.944914Z", "open_time": "2024-10-10T13:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-05T14:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-05T14:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-13T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-13T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The U.S. Constitution [outlines the process](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Two_of_the_United_States_Constitution#Clause_6:_Vacancy_and_disability) for vice presidential succession to the presidency, if the President is unable or unsuitable to fulfil their duties.\n\nThe Vice President has become President 9 times in US History: \n\n\t1.\tJohn Tyler (1841) – After the death of William Henry Harrison.\n\t2.\tMillard Fillmore (1850) – After the death of Zachary Taylor.\n\t3.\tAndrew Johnson (1865) – After the assassination of Abraham Lincoln.\n\t4.\tChester A. Arthur (1881) – After the assassination of James Garfield.\n\t5.\tTheodore Roosevelt (1901) – After the assassination of William McKinley.\n\t6.\tCalvin Coolidge (1923) – After the death of Warren G. Harding.\n\t7.\tHarry S. Truman (1945) – After the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt.\n\t8.\tLyndon B. Johnson (1963) – After the assassination of John F. Kennedy.\n\t9.\tGerald Ford (1974) – After the resignation of Richard Nixon.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any individual serving as Vice President of the United States after January 21, 2025 and before January 14, 2029 is officially sworn in as President during this time frame. This includes scenarios such as the Vice President taking the oath of office due to resignation, impeachment, incapacity, or death of the sitting President, or any other lawful transfer of power.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the Vice President is not sworn in as President during the specified time period.", "fine_print": "- If there is ambiguity regarding the Vice President's swearing-in as President, resolution may be delayed for up to 30 days. If, 30 days after the purported swearing-in, unresolved legal challenges to the legitimacy of the Vice President's assumption of the presidency remain in federal courts, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\n- The Vice President becoming only the Acting President, this will not be enough for the question to resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 28229, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758213702.868303, "end_time": 1759452964.446553, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758213702.868303, "end_time": 1759452964.446553, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.26275847370802247 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5508783191994084, 0.1698461853777333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31791269281136625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25723737143824865, 0.0, 0.18967896317068483, 0.5680645238174733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1350166315751149, 0.0, 0.5663233043022327, 0.09329258471159352, 0.28794148447432993, 0.6106164389413062, 0.0, 0.7197018749430008, 0.0, 2.8250882116601406, 0.15941172711055251, 0.0, 0.6609704774759386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014335762373467701, 0.0, 0.6142469217389985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06198292201444626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018152807974501476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1004872465468456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1516622826293349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3853915778427911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.508020419894716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03282480256284937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The U.S. Constitution [outlines the process](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Two_of_the_United_States_Constitution#Clause_6:_Vacancy_and_disability) for vice presidential succession to the presidency, if the President is unable or unsuitable to fulfil their duties.\n\nThe Vice President has become President 9 times in US History: \n\n\t1.\tJohn Tyler (1841) – After the death of William Henry Harrison.\n\t2.\tMillard Fillmore (1850) – After the death of Zachary Taylor.\n\t3.\tAndrew Johnson (1865) – After the assassination of Abraham Lincoln.\n\t4.\tChester A. Arthur (1881) – After the assassination of James Garfield.\n\t5.\tTheodore Roosevelt (1901) – After the assassination of William McKinley.\n\t6.\tCalvin Coolidge (1923) – After the death of Warren G. Harding.\n\t7.\tHarry S. Truman (1945) – After the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt.\n\t8.\tLyndon B. Johnson (1963) – After the assassination of John F. Kennedy.\n\t9.\tGerald Ford (1974) – After the resignation of Richard Nixon." }, { "id": 28210, "title": "Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-llama-model-be-ranked-1-overall-on-the-lmsys-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-3rd-quarter-of-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-16T12:44:30.378420Z", "published_at": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.538093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28210, "title": "Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-16T12:44:30.378420Z", "open_time": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T13:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for sixth, specifically through model \"llama-3.1-405b-instruct\". ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing \"llama\" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after October 1, 2024. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28210, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726583307.57654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726583307.57654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.20786663898956237 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.32043076449177554, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7886744241332062, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 1.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.4601255596338988, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.649329888337202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726583307.603964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726583307.603964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8990189389762353, 0.10098106102376467 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for sixth, specifically through model \"llama-3.1-405b-instruct\". 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", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing \"chatgpt\" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after October 1, 2024. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28206, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726583389.506972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.737 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726583389.506972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.737 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.7706736118561124 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.7202819150040476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 1.7555927825090736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 1.0, 1.3563020167211624, 0.0, 0.35250077814618447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8720104955769312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.505856398089031, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 65.99245584023782, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 65.99245584023782 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726583389.538322, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726583389.538322, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30463287138674466, 0.6953671286132553 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked first, specifically with model \"chatgpt-4o-latest\". 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The work stoppage involving 33,000 machinists will not disrupt commercial flights immediately but was expected to shut down production of Boeing’s best-selling airliners, presenting another setback for a company already dealing with a damaged reputation and financial losses.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are no reports on the Associated Press's [Strike Hub](https://apnews.com/hub/strikes) that Boeing's aircraft assembly workers have ended their strike before October 1, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus. Conversely, if there is a report on that specific portal that Boeing's workers have ended their strike, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. Therefore, if forecasters believe that the Associated Press may not timely update its Strike Hub portal in the event of the strike ending, they should forecast accordingly. Similarly, if the Strikes Hub page is unavailable on October 1, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on what is shown), until October 8, 2024, at which point this question will resolve as No. For purposes of this question, no resolution source will resolve as No rather than annullment of the question.", "post_id": 28205, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726582582.281463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.675 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726582582.281463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.675 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32499999999999996, 0.675 ], "means": [ 0.6203792700379469 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7678285137156861, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7988353564213517, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8438000268297587, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 43.29594072761063, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 43.29594072761063 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726582582.321153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726582582.321153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.39575042712652697, 0.604249572873473 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the AP on [September 13, 2024](https://apnews.com/article/boeing-strike-machinists-contract-9f61a7d48675d1c3517233d40d4ec2b1), \"Aircraft assembly workers went on strike Friday at Boeing factories in Washington, Oregon and California after union members overwhelmingly rejected a tentative contract that would have increased wages by 25% over four years. The work stoppage involving 33,000 machinists will not disrupt commercial flights immediately but was expected to shut down production of Boeing’s best-selling airliners, presenting another setback for a company already dealing with a damaged reputation and financial losses.\"" }, { "id": 28204, "title": "Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-chicago-white-sox-lose-124-games-in-the-2024-mlb-season-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-16T12:44:28.978055Z", "published_at": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.075830Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28204, "title": "Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-16T12:44:28.978055Z", "open_time": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics. \n\nThe 1962 Mets have the most losses in the \"Modern Era\" (1901 to present) with a record of 40-120, with 2 games un-played. The 2003 Detroit Tigers had a record of 43-119.\n\nThe 1916 Philadelphia Athletics have the worst winning percentage of 23.5 percent with a record of 36-117. A 42-120 record to satisfy this question's resolution results in a winning percentage of 25.9 percent.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context.", "resolution_criteria": "The Chicago White Sox's loss total will be determined by the Major League Baseball standings at [this link](https://www.mlb.com/standings/). If it is greater than or equal to 124 losses for the 2024 season, this question resolves as Yes. Under 120 resolves as No.", "fine_print": "No other sources will be considered for this question. Admins will resolve based on the number supplied by MLB on October 1, 2024.", "post_id": 28204, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726582604.474301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11599999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726582604.474301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11599999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.557231655054655 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7251988302965541, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6640427727672698, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353, 0.05640008981082201, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9316293524480549, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.7835390257683923, 0.0, 0.3002647972598317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726582604.517063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726582604.517063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4387409831706035, 0.5612590168293965 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics. \n\nThe 1962 Mets have the most losses in the \"Modern Era\" (1901 to present) with a record of 40-120, with 2 games un-played. The 2003 Detroit Tigers had a record of 43-119.\n\nThe 1916 Philadelphia Athletics have the worst winning percentage of 23.5 percent with a record of 36-117. A 42-120 record to satisfy this question's resolution results in a winning percentage of 25.9 percent.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context." }, { "id": 28164, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?", "short_title": "Dem leaders on Lex Fridman pod?", "url_title": "Dem leaders on Lex Fridman pod?", "slug": "dem-leaders-on-lex-fridman-pod", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-14T20:38:18.905005Z", "published_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.918708Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28164, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?", "created_at": "2024-09-14T20:38:18.905005Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lex Fridman's podcast [is ranked](https://chartable.com/podcasts/artificial-intelligence-1434243584) #2 in the United States in the Technology category according to Apple and #61 overall. Recently he has been notable for his [interviews](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) with Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Benjamin Netanyahu. His episode with Trump for example got 4.8 million views [on Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCbfTN-caFI).\n\nOn September 4, 2024, Fridman [tweeted](https://x.com/lexfridman/status/1831515121819987998):\n\n>I would love to do a podcast with [at]KamalaHarris\n>and other leading voices in the Democratic party including:<br />\n>- [at]GovTimWalz <br />\n>- [at]BarackObama<br />\n>- [at]HillaryClinton<br />\n>- [at]BernieSanders<br />\n>- [at]AOC\n\n>I think we can have amazing conversations!\n\n>I don't do gotcha-journalism, just a good-faith chat about life, philosophy, and ideas that hopefully helps reveal our common humanity.\n\n>It'll be fun, and great for everyone! ❤\n\n>DM's are open! 🙏", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, any of the following individuals appears on the Lex Fridman podcast, listed on the [Podcast Episodes Page](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) (with the person's name appearing in red under the episode title) in an episode more recent than episode #443:\n\n- Kamala Harris\n- Tim Walz\n- Barack Obama\n- Hillary Clinton\n- Bernie Sanders\n- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez\n\nIf this event does not occur before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Appears\" is defined simply as the individual's name appearing in red under the episode title on the resolution page, which will mean that other factors such as the length or nature of the person's appearance on the Lex Fridman podcast will be irrelevant for purposes of this question.", "post_id": 28164, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727709543.954609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727709543.954609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0030008644067595182 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.624785796962898, 1.9258323665915962, 0.001339079145820899, 0.10774933561984733, 0.0, 0.06857868966727151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00934573011678523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.7507237298916465, "coverage": 0.9999917758934054, "baseline_score": 92.34247585717392, "spot_peer_score": 5.652384119854204, "peer_archived_score": 2.7507237298916465, "baseline_archived_score": 92.34247585717392, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.652384119854204 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727709543.999824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727709543.999824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 238, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lex Fridman's podcast [is ranked](https://chartable.com/podcasts/artificial-intelligence-1434243584) #2 in the United States in the Technology category according to Apple and #61 overall. Recently he has been notable for his [interviews](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) with Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Benjamin Netanyahu. His episode with Trump for example got 4.8 million views [on Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCbfTN-caFI).\n\nOn September 4, 2024, Fridman [tweeted](https://x.com/lexfridman/status/1831515121819987998):\n\n>I would love to do a podcast with [at]KamalaHarris\n>and other leading voices in the Democratic party including:<br />\n>- [at]GovTimWalz <br />\n>- [at]BarackObama<br />\n>- [at]HillaryClinton<br />\n>- [at]BernieSanders<br />\n>- [at]AOC\n\n>I think we can have amazing conversations!\n\n>I don't do gotcha-journalism, just a good-faith chat about life, philosophy, and ideas that hopefully helps reveal our common humanity.\n\n>It'll be fun, and great for everyone! ❤\n\n>DM's are open! 🙏" }, { "id": 28156, "title": "Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usdas-recall-of-boars-head-deli-meat-be-closed-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [the NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/health/boars-head-deli-meat-listeria.html), \"Genome sequencing tests by public health officials in New York and Maryland tied a strain of listeria found in Boar’s Head liverwurst to the bacteria from people who died or fell ill, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The company recalled its liverwurst late in July. Days later, Boar’s Head expanded the recall to cover more than 3,500 tons of meat — including ham and other items made in the Jarratt facility, one of several it operates. Production at the meat processing center in a rural part of the state has been temporarily stopped. Boar’s Head said it was disinfecting the plant and trying to determine the cause of the suspected contamination. Nine elderly people have died and dozens were hospitalized in the worst listeria outbreak in years. Public health experts have expressed worry that those numbers could increase, because symptoms can emerge weeks later. They also noted that consumers might not be aware of the recall, and some of the products do not expire until October.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Boar's Head Provisions Co., Inc., is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/boars-head-provisions-co--expands-recall-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due) is accessed by Metaculus after September 30, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered.", "post_id": 28156, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726323357.950983, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.315 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726323357.950983, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.315 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23287984012345644 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8117493037268142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8208457652573098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9964706675674142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35843923208154005, 1.9019935026160222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4272473608822618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44044289180736435, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6525656508175627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.7287651222345652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04213280279121279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0697448631166007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726323357.986602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726323357.986602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9081264751065764, 0.09187352489342356 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [the NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/health/boars-head-deli-meat-listeria.html), \"Genome sequencing tests by public health officials in New York and Maryland tied a strain of listeria found in Boar’s Head liverwurst to the bacteria from people who died or fell ill, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The company recalled its liverwurst late in July. Days later, Boar’s Head expanded the recall to cover more than 3,500 tons of meat — including ham and other items made in the Jarratt facility, one of several it operates. Production at the meat processing center in a rural part of the state has been temporarily stopped. Boar’s Head said it was disinfecting the plant and trying to determine the cause of the suspected contamination. Nine elderly people have died and dozens were hospitalized in the worst listeria outbreak in years. Public health experts have expressed worry that those numbers could increase, because symptoms can emerge weeks later. They also noted that consumers might not be aware of the recall, and some of the products do not expire until October.\"" }, { "id": 28155, "title": "Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-comex-gold-spot-prices-exceed-2700-per-ounce-before-october-1-2024-according-to-yahoo-finance", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-13T12:40:07.620921Z", "published_at": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.684509Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28155, "title": "Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?", "created_at": "2024-09-13T12:40:07.620921Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 12, 2024, gold prices reached record highs, closing at $2,591.30 amid news of possible interest rate cuts and increased risks of recession and a weakening labor market, with seasonally-adjusted jobless claims going up last week to 230,000, an increase of 2,000.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price for gold spot prices exceeds $2,700 for any day before October 1, 2024, according to [this](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC%3DF/history/) Yahoo Finance link. 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Nigeria?", "created_at": "2024-09-13T12:40:07.369194Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-22T23:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-22T23:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-22T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Human rights activist Kennedy Iyere is one of the 17 [candidates](https://inecnigeria.org/?page_id=13150) for governor of Edo State. His nomination was the subject of [some controversy](https://www.thecable.ng/accord-party-kennedy-iyere-is-our-recognised-candidate-for-edo-guber/) within his party, the Accord Party. Accord does not currently hold any seats in Nigeria's National Assembly. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Kennedy Iyere is the next governor of Edo State in Nigeria, based on the results of the September 21, 2024 gubernatorial election according to the [Independent National Electoral Commission](https://inecnigeria.org/) of Nigeria or [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports on the election results. ", "fine_print": "Although Nigeria typically counts its votes within a few days, if there is no declared winner before October 1, 2024, this question will be annulled. 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His nomination was the subject of [some controversy](https://www.thecable.ng/accord-party-kennedy-iyere-is-our-recognised-candidate-for-edo-guber/) within his party, the Accord Party. Accord does not currently hold any seats in Nigeria's National Assembly. " }, { "id": 28100, "title": "Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?", "short_title": "US Electric Vehicle Sales Share >35% in 2030?", "url_title": "US Electric Vehicle Sales Share >35% in 2030?", "slug": "us-electric-vehicle-sales-share-35-in-2030", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-11T07:34:13.602669Z", "published_at": "2024-09-14T13:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T14:56:38.278694Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-14T13:56:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-11-30T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-14T13:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28100, "title": "Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?", "created_at": "2024-09-11T07:34:13.602669Z", "open_time": "2024-09-14T13:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-17T13:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-17T13:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-11-30T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-11-30T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For the purposes of the background information and question resolution, EV will refer to pure battery electric vehicles. \n\nEV adoption had surged in the 2010s, largely due to dramatic prices in the decline of battery prices. According to [Bloomberg New Energy Finance](https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/), battery prices had declined from $780 per kWh in 2013 to $160 per kWh in 2020. Unfortunately, the early 2020s have not presented steep battery price declines, and the new headline in late 2023 and 2024 has switched from unbridled optimism in the EV revolution to disquietude about the sluggishness and challenges of the EV transition. \n\nThe author posed this question to assess whether one should adjust their expectation of the EV transition in the context of the slow sales growth in 2024. The author also intended to explore the dependence on EV sales on retail electricity prices with [this question about retail electricity prices in 2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27993/electricity-in-us-in-2030-below-11-cents-kwh/) as the parent question for a conditional.\n\n[Robert Walton of Utility Drive](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/US-electric-vehicle-EV-adoption-slowdown-BOA-Bloomberg/719826/) wrote:\n\n>>The EV penetration rate has averaged 6.8% so far this year, down from 7.5% in 2023, according to the research note. BofA analysts say they now expect EVs to make up about 8% of vehicle sales in 2024, 14% in 2027 and 29% in 2030. [The 6.8 percent figure is consistent with the [2024 Argonne National Laboratory data](https://www.anl.gov/sites/www/files/2024-08/Total%20Sales%20for%20Website_July%202024.pdf) where the portion of battery electric vehicles sold in 2024 is around 7.5 percent.]\n\n>>President Biden set a goal for 50% of all new vehicle sales in the U.S. to be electric by 2030.\n\n>>Earlier this year, BofA Global Research forecast an approximately 10% penetration for 2024, 18% in 2027 and about 33% in 2030, a spokesperson for the firm said in an email.\n\nBank of America composed a [brief report](https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/ev-transition-out-of-charge.pdf) in January 2024 that confirms that they predicted 33 percent EV penetration for 2030 in early 2024.\n\nGiven the Bank of America forecasts, 35 percent in 2030 seems a little ambitious but still within the range of probable and realistic outcomes. Hence, 35 percent will be used as the milestone for this question.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the total period made up of the months of January 2030 through November 2030, inclusive, the sales share of light duty battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is greater than 35% in the United States according to [data published by Argonne National Laboratory](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).\n\n\"Battery electric vehicle\" does NOT include hybrid-electric or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.", "fine_print": "Specifically, light duty vehicle sales figures published by Argonne in the [monthly historical data](https://www.anl.gov/esia/reference/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates-historical-data) will be used when data for November 2030 first becomes available. (Updates or revisions subsequent to the first posting of data for November 2030 will be irrelevant to the question resolution.) The percentage will be computed by using the total BEV sales from January through November 2030 compared to total light duty vehicle (LDV) sales over the same period. The question does **not** require each month to exceed 35% sales share.\n\nAs of the time of this question's creation, Argonne typically posts data around the middle of the month for the preceding month. For example the July 2024 data was posted as of [August 13, 2024](https://web.archive.org/web/20240813101023/https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates). Therefore we expect November 2030 data to be posted by December 15, 2030. If the data for November 2030 is not posted by that date, resolution will wait until it is. If it is not posted before July 1, 2031, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nIf Argonne no longer reports the data, Metaculus may use an alternative [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) of data at its discretion or annul the question. For any other edge cases that may make this question unable to be resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 28100, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758207387.625321, "end_time": 1759826905.557, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758207387.625321, "end_time": 1759826905.557, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.34316442324563806 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5751117920109702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.32660023718433717, 0.3484801054844811, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25629411550036657, 0.6790242281752437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1567827594750767, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7055501150173382 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288657.437521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288657.437521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8934037116971566, 0.10659628830284341 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For the purposes of the background information and question resolution, EV will refer to pure battery electric vehicles. \n\nEV adoption had surged in the 2010s, largely due to dramatic prices in the decline of battery prices. According to [Bloomberg New Energy Finance](https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/), battery prices had declined from $780 per kWh in 2013 to $160 per kWh in 2020. Unfortunately, the early 2020s have not presented steep battery price declines, and the new headline in late 2023 and 2024 has switched from unbridled optimism in the EV revolution to disquietude about the sluggishness and challenges of the EV transition. \n\nThe author posed this question to assess whether one should adjust their expectation of the EV transition in the context of the slow sales growth in 2024. The author also intended to explore the dependence on EV sales on retail electricity prices with [this question about retail electricity prices in 2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27993/electricity-in-us-in-2030-below-11-cents-kwh/) as the parent question for a conditional.\n\n[Robert Walton of Utility Drive](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/US-electric-vehicle-EV-adoption-slowdown-BOA-Bloomberg/719826/) wrote:\n\n>>The EV penetration rate has averaged 6.8% so far this year, down from 7.5% in 2023, according to the research note. BofA analysts say they now expect EVs to make up about 8% of vehicle sales in 2024, 14% in 2027 and 29% in 2030. [The 6.8 percent figure is consistent with the [2024 Argonne National Laboratory data](https://www.anl.gov/sites/www/files/2024-08/Total%20Sales%20for%20Website_July%202024.pdf) where the portion of battery electric vehicles sold in 2024 is around 7.5 percent.]\n\n>>President Biden set a goal for 50% of all new vehicle sales in the U.S. to be electric by 2030.\n\n>>Earlier this year, BofA Global Research forecast an approximately 10% penetration for 2024, 18% in 2027 and about 33% in 2030, a spokesperson for the firm said in an email.\n\nBank of America composed a [brief report](https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/ev-transition-out-of-charge.pdf) in January 2024 that confirms that they predicted 33 percent EV penetration for 2030 in early 2024.\n\nGiven the Bank of America forecasts, 35 percent in 2030 seems a little ambitious but still within the range of probable and realistic outcomes. Hence, 35 percent will be used as the milestone for this question." }, { "id": 28072, "title": "Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?", "short_title": "1 million Russian losses before 2026", "url_title": "1 million Russian losses before 2026", "slug": "1-million-russian-losses-before-2026", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T18:55:30.526554Z", "published_at": "2024-09-13T20:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.192438Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-13T20:46:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-12T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-12T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T20:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28072, "title": "Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T18:55:30.526554Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T20:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-16T20:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-16T20:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-12T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-15T12:45:55.394007Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-12T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine releases their daily estimation of Russian losses in personnel, vehicles, aircraft, and other military equipment on their pages in social networks (see links in Resolution Criteria).\n\nAlthough it's difficult to prove these numbers, and it's typical to exagerrate enemy losses during wars, these reports, in general, correlate well with battle intensity observed through public videos and OSINT data.\n\nSince 2022, it has reached more than 625,000 in total (around 640/day), but the battles intensified since April 2024, reaching more than 1000/day on most days. With this pace, 1 million casualties will be reached in September 2025.\n\nHistorical data are also tracked by independent trackers\nsuch as [russian-casualties-in-ua](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/) , [Combat.FYI](https://combat.fyi/) and in the [2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 1 January 2026, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 1 million or more Russian personnel losses on their official public media pages on [Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua), [Telegram](https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU), [X.com](https://x.com/GeneralStaffUA), and other social networks.\n\nIf before 1 January 2026 no such report is published, the question resolves as **No**. This includes the case when the General Staff of the AFU stops publishing their data due to a ceasefire or peace agreement.\n\nIf, however, there are no credible reports about the ceasefire or peace agreement, but there are no new reports for more than 30 days in a row, the question may be **Annulled** at the discretion of Metaculus admins.", "fine_print": "Note that \"Personnel losses\" in this context are _killed and wounded_ soldiers and that wounded soldiers may return to the battlefield later.\n\nIn the past there were at least one occasion on [May 27, 2023](https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/594141432898939?ref=embed_post) when the error in the previous day's report was admitted and corrected. For this reason, the actual resolution should be delayed for 2 days.\n\nHistorical trackers mentioned in the Background information ([russian-casualties-in-ua](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/), [Combat.FYI](https://combat.fyi/) and the [2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json)) may be used as secondary resolution sources if the main resolution pages are banned/unavailable.", "post_id": 28072, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749356271.863535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749356271.863535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9227001759128942 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.052917423781649, 0.004502492091281563, 0.0, 0.009362214450677682, 0.0391307538660947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04008224875913337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10228230303850093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015497814578501265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4337183691184219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045661515517217234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14329328159663618, 0.0, 0.023344988892241045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060957830206119154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10267401358030756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06984569336479438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24158469511885405, 0.019184847683859318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14500482192877664, 0.946177418179385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18037658447122673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.639220315973123 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 28.58184517064026, "peer_score": 44.69384920012259, "coverage": 0.5728336012863386, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999555190469045, "spot_peer_score": 66.53717847431554, "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 28.58184517064026, "peer_archived_score": 44.69384920012259, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 66.53717847431554, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287841.66183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287841.66183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5717239084332404, 0.42827609156675966 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 180, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine releases their daily estimation of Russian losses in personnel, vehicles, aircraft, and other military equipment on their pages in social networks (see links in Resolution Criteria).\n\nAlthough it's difficult to prove these numbers, and it's typical to exagerrate enemy losses during wars, these reports, in general, correlate well with battle intensity observed through public videos and OSINT data.\n\nSince 2022, it has reached more than 625,000 in total (around 640/day), but the battles intensified since April 2024, reaching more than 1000/day on most days. With this pace, 1 million casualties will be reached in September 2025.\n\nHistorical data are also tracked by independent trackers\nsuch as [russian-casualties-in-ua](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/) , [Combat.FYI](https://combat.fyi/) and in the [2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json)." }, { "id": 28070, "title": "Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-new-york-yankees-win-more-games-than-the-cleveland-guardians-in-the-2024-mlb-season-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:53:04.989513Z", "published_at": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.038070Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", 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question resolves as **Yes** if a new post appears at Rivian's Stories page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://stories.rivian.com/), timestamped after the close of this question and before October 1, 2024. If there is no such post, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "No other web address than the one mentioned will count. 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"description": "Lithium carbonate, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, has experienced a significant price decline in recent months. As of September 2024, lithium carbonate prices in China have stabilized at around CNY 75,000 per tonne, the lowest level in over three years, before dropping again to 72,500 to close out the first week of trading. \n\nThis recent decline in lithium prices is part of a larger trend that has seen spot prices [fall over 80% since December 2022](https://www.bradley.com/insights/publications/2024/02/lithium-prices-in-free-fall-implications-for-clean-energy-transition-in-the-private-sector). The sudden deceleration in demand for lithium, particularly in the EV industry, caught suppliers by surprise, leading to a surplus that placed downward pressure on prices.\n\nDespite the current slump, the long-term outlook for lithium demand remains strong, as governments and private sector initiatives continue to push for a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy solutions. According to a study by [McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular), global demand for lithium-ion batteries is predicted to grow from around 700 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022 to 4,700 GWh in 2030, driven primarily by EVs, stationary storage, and consumer electronics.\n\n[S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/121923-us-canada-lithium-prospects-hope-to-advance-in-2024-despite-headwinds) projects that lithium carbonate prices will stabilize near current levels in a range between $20,000/mt and $25,000/mt from 2024 to 2027. However, given the recent volatility and the potential for further market disruptions, the question remains whether lithium carbonate prices will continue to decline in the near term, potentially falling below CNY 70,000 per tonne before October 1, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium), falls below 70,000, for any day's closing price, after September 10, 2024, and before October 1, 2024. \n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if the lithium carbonate price does not fall below 70,000 CNY/T during the specified time period.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28046, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237165.295805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5666666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237165.295805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5666666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43333333333333335, 0.5666666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.5341534368318166 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.018055332987362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.8456151362805138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7902876712206909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 1.183911994075013, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.8835211636126213, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -20.645087746742632, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -20.645087746742632 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237165.341819, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237165.341819, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6605560926614606, 0.33944390733853935 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lithium carbonate, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, has experienced a significant price decline in recent months. As of September 2024, lithium carbonate prices in China have stabilized at around CNY 75,000 per tonne, the lowest level in over three years, before dropping again to 72,500 to close out the first week of trading. \n\nThis recent decline in lithium prices is part of a larger trend that has seen spot prices [fall over 80% since December 2022](https://www.bradley.com/insights/publications/2024/02/lithium-prices-in-free-fall-implications-for-clean-energy-transition-in-the-private-sector). The sudden deceleration in demand for lithium, particularly in the EV industry, caught suppliers by surprise, leading to a surplus that placed downward pressure on prices.\n\nDespite the current slump, the long-term outlook for lithium demand remains strong, as governments and private sector initiatives continue to push for a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy solutions. According to a study by [McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular), global demand for lithium-ion batteries is predicted to grow from around 700 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022 to 4,700 GWh in 2030, driven primarily by EVs, stationary storage, and consumer electronics.\n\n[S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/121923-us-canada-lithium-prospects-hope-to-advance-in-2024-despite-headwinds) projects that lithium carbonate prices will stabilize near current levels in a range between $20,000/mt and $25,000/mt from 2024 to 2027. However, given the recent volatility and the potential for further market disruptions, the question remains whether lithium carbonate prices will continue to decline in the near term, potentially falling below CNY 70,000 per tonne before October 1, 2024." } ] }
