Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2100
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These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.\n\nOne of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a \"suspected extremist\" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))\n\nAfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the percent of valid votes that Alternative for Germany (AfD) got in the final results of the 2024 Bradenburg state election as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question will be **Annulled** if the election does not take place before October 1, 2024. It will also be **Annulled** if less than 95% of the votes have been counted before October 7, 2024. If at least 95% but less than 100% of votes have been counted before October 7, the question will resolve based on the counted votes.", "post_id": 28045, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237010.660104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237010.660104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5394802121427765 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7606548029912223, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.7076982232779687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.09283202621282585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3747529599488227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.03573243764150962, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9350248331675358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.214824819861367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -12.029423371771195, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -12.029423371771195 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237010.705819, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237010.705819, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38731968304625985, 0.6126803169537401 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.\n\nOne of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a \"suspected extremist\" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))\n\nAfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach." }, { "id": 28044, "title": "Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-afds-vote-share-be-more-than-28-and-less-than-or-equal-to-30-in-the-2024-brandenburg-state-election", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:23.573257Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.296971Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 97, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-26T20:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-26T20:26:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28044, "title": "Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:23.573257Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-26T20:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-26T20:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-26T20:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.\n\nOne of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a \"suspected extremist\" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))\n\nAfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the percent of valid votes that Alternative for Germany (AfD) got in the final results of the 2024 Bradenburg state election as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question will be **Annulled** if the election does not take place before October 1, 2024. It will also be **Annulled** if less than 95% of the votes have been counted before October 7, 2024. If at least 95% but less than 100% of votes have been counted before October 7, the question will resolve based on the counted votes.", "post_id": 28044, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726236973.998866, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19906000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726236973.998866, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19906000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.625, 0.375 ], "means": [ 0.3546865112234483 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6959701830510906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.8331016997804591, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7798433790004251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.4390828339344641, 0.24620768390980027, 0.0, 0.8232275003676293, 0.41588412507835687, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43544525078176105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28147862720218586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41760219967477274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5883770929329424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -41.50374992788438, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -41.50374992788438 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726236974.041328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726236974.041328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8990188777616606, 0.10098112223833941 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.\n\nOne of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a \"suspected extremist\" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))\n\nAfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. 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These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.\n\nOne of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a \"suspected extremist\" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))\n\nAfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. 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These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.\n\nOne of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a \"suspected extremist\" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))\n\nAfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach." }, { "id": 28041, "title": "Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-4-or-more-major-atlantic-hurricane-category-3-or-higher-occur-in-september-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:23.093034Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.625608Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28041, "title": "Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:23.093034Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.", "fine_print": "- A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\n- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.\n- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.", "post_id": 28041, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237035.667774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43333333333333335 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237035.667774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43333333333333335 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.32145940000729817 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41097508049776743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1919432025219816, 0.33432944568041745, 0.3733687775975512, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.7949009880760955, 0.0, 0.6620918089881571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.121949719148057, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0902215738421042, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237035.711568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237035.711568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9062950663025446, 0.09370493369745535 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season." }, { "id": 28040, "title": "Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-3-major-atlantic-hurricane-category-3-or-higher-occur-in-september-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.973142Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.017043Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28040, "title": "Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.973142Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.", "fine_print": "- A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\n- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.\n- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.", "post_id": 28040, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726236986.274697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726236986.274697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2532819265957379 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.15975533849496593, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.34467871740862843, 0.33432944568041745, 2.931826420044769, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.7253542427998305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.4814477137532353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0469369562341933, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.399892862493966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726236986.316304, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726236986.316304, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9345275262881033, 0.06547247371189673 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season." }, { "id": 28039, "title": "Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-2-major-atlantic-hurricanes-category-3-or-higher-occur-in-september-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.850897Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.611197Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28039, "title": "Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.850897Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.", "fine_print": "- A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\n- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.\n- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.", "post_id": 28039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237140.008426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2375 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237140.008426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2375 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.32596747968838563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7543255204204855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.04916130302451003, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 1.0851725996364125, 0.3935277555318061, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.604309663708944, 0.23237033748995323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3803845176444547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2821782577850747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756145, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756145 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237140.037026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237140.037026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8930187154545792, 0.10698128454542083 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season." }, { "id": 28038, "title": "Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-1-major-atlantic-hurricane-category-3-or-higher-occur-in-september-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.727119Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.009826Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28038, "title": "Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.727119Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.", "fine_print": "- A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\n- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.\n- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.", "post_id": 28038, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237511.968027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237511.968027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.3819631173545903 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4794868403660972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6477916257373127, 0.3268262380230357, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 2.592502019695917, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 1.531115942661232, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8487726726015246, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 1.3381970348852665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -47.39311883324123, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -47.39311883324123 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237511.99528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237511.99528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8054721040762246, 0.1945278959237754 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season." }, { "id": 28037, "title": "Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-major-atlantic-hurricanes-category-3-or-higher-occur-in-september-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.409775Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.084067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T23:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T23:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28037, "title": "Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.409775Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T23:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T23:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-27T23:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.", "fine_print": "- A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\n- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.\n- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.", "post_id": 28037, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237088.479945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237088.479945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7014293401424767 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9473668135401643, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 1.4230039894176962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.761419003562789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 2.2638271021388925, 0.0, 0.262743382373636, 0.19330086451826228, 0.8277762550959286, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237088.515269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237088.515269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4172863782670717, 0.5827136217329283 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season." }, { "id": 28024, "title": "Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-intel-get-dropped-from-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:26:13.494718Z", "published_at": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.644204Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28024, "title": "Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:26:13.494718Z", "open_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 4, 2024, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/) that Intel was \"likely\" to be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average: \n\n>A removal from the index will hurt Intel's already bruised reputation. The company has missed out on the artificial intelligence boom after passing on an OpenAI investment and losses are mounting at the contract manufacturing unit that the chipmaker has been building out in hopes of challenging TSMC [Taiwan Semiconductor].\n\n>To fund a turnaround, Intel suspended [its] dividend and announced layoffs affecting 15% of its workforce during its earnings report last month. But some analysts and a former board member believe the moves might be too little, too late for the chipmaker.\n\n>\"Intel being removed was likely a long time coming,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group.\n\n>The latest results may be the final push needed to finally see the company removed from the Dow, Detrick added.\n\nAlong with Microsoft, Intel first entered the Dow [in October 1999](https://money.cnn.com/1999/10/26/markets/dowindustrials/), replacing Goodyear and Sears at the time, in a move considered to be one of the largest shakeups to date in the index, which was over a century old at that point.\n\nEstablished [in 1896](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100214/when-did-dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-begin.asp), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was intended as a small representative sample of the largest companies in the the US stock market, an objective it largely retains to this day. It's important to note that at the time, the word \"industrial\" had a broader meaning than it does today, for example [defined in 1912](https://www.google.com/books/edition/New_Websterian_1912_Dictionary/VkoZAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=industrial) as \"pertaining to productive industry,\" which is more akin to how the word \"corporate\" or \"business\" is defined today, as compared with the more narrow [modern definitions](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/industrial) mentioning factories or production of goods. (The original DJIA components and their histories are listed [here](https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/the-complete-history-of-the-original-dow-dozen/).)\n\nTwo contenders to replace Intel are: \n\n- Nvidia. Please see [Is Nvidia Going to Be Added to the Dow? Here's What 128 Years of History Suggests Will Happen.](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/17/nvidia-added-to-dow-what-128-years-history-suggest/)\n\n- Texas Instruments. Mentioned by the Reuters report as \"a nearly century-old chipmaker with significant production capacity within the United States.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** upon any official announcement or confirmation that Intel Corporation will no longer be a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting either on the official announcement or that Intel has been or will be removed from the index. \n\nIf no such announcement or reporting occurs before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Although removals from the index are generally effective immediately in order to forestall frontrunning, this is not a requirement for this question. All that is required is for there to be an announcement or confirmation before October 1, 2024 that Intel will be removed from the DJIA at any point in time. Therefore this question will resolve based on the announcement or confirmation, not on the actual removal date, if that removal date is after September 30, 2024.\n\nForecasters will note that this question makes certain implicit assumptions such as the DJIA index continuing to exist in its present form. For any edge cases that might make this question unable to be resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 28024, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726150785.590827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726150785.590827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6642720235361775 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8322595053523607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.422729524609672, 0.12856727458371708, 0.9366730711856619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5895174227856284, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7601798671538725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0963055375094604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.8682671503582153, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726150785.624293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726150785.624293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2865155413767362, 0.7134844586232638 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 4, 2024, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/) that Intel was \"likely\" to be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average: \n\n>A removal from the index will hurt Intel's already bruised reputation. The company has missed out on the artificial intelligence boom after passing on an OpenAI investment and losses are mounting at the contract manufacturing unit that the chipmaker has been building out in hopes of challenging TSMC [Taiwan Semiconductor].\n\n>To fund a turnaround, Intel suspended [its] dividend and announced layoffs affecting 15% of its workforce during its earnings report last month. But some analysts and a former board member believe the moves might be too little, too late for the chipmaker.\n\n>\"Intel being removed was likely a long time coming,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group.\n\n>The latest results may be the final push needed to finally see the company removed from the Dow, Detrick added.\n\nAlong with Microsoft, Intel first entered the Dow [in October 1999](https://money.cnn.com/1999/10/26/markets/dowindustrials/), replacing Goodyear and Sears at the time, in a move considered to be one of the largest shakeups to date in the index, which was over a century old at that point.\n\nEstablished [in 1896](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100214/when-did-dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-begin.asp), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was intended as a small representative sample of the largest companies in the the US stock market, an objective it largely retains to this day. It's important to note that at the time, the word \"industrial\" had a broader meaning than it does today, for example [defined in 1912](https://www.google.com/books/edition/New_Websterian_1912_Dictionary/VkoZAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=industrial) as \"pertaining to productive industry,\" which is more akin to how the word \"corporate\" or \"business\" is defined today, as compared with the more narrow [modern definitions](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/industrial) mentioning factories or production of goods. (The original DJIA components and their histories are listed [here](https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/the-complete-history-of-the-original-dow-dozen/).)\n\nTwo contenders to replace Intel are: \n\n- Nvidia. Please see [Is Nvidia Going to Be Added to the Dow? Here's What 128 Years of History Suggests Will Happen.](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/17/nvidia-added-to-dow-what-128-years-history-suggest/)\n\n- Texas Instruments. Mentioned by the Reuters report as \"a nearly century-old chipmaker with significant production capacity within the United States.\"" }, { "id": 28022, "title": "Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024? 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", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:20:21.310902Z", "open_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of September 8, 2024, SpaceX's most recent post was timestamped August 12, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a new post appears at SpaceX's Updates page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.spacex.com/updates/), timestamped after the close of this question and before October 1, 2024. If there is no such post, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.", "post_id": 28022, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726064144.527683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726064144.527683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7569948968244118 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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season, before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:20:21.212616Z", "open_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, 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If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "In the case of a tie for the number of wins between the two teams, this question resolves as **No**.", "post_id": 28021, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726064160.574159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726064160.574159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5960716031921375 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11919235601565477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17249978086131545, 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"Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the [NASA Commercial Crew program](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/commercial-space/commercial-crew-program/) (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named *Starliner* to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS. \n\nUnfortunately, since inception, this Boeing program has been riddled with issues and delays. The [first orbital demo flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test), taking place in December 2019, was a failure as while the capsule was safely recovered, multiple serious issues during flight resulted in not completing mission objectives, such as reaching and docking with the ISS. \n\nDue to these issues, Boeing agreed to perform a [second orbital flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2) at \"no cost to the taxpayer\" with an estimated US$410 million out-of-pocket expenditure, and while this mission was nominally successful with the spacecraft docking to the ISS and returning safely, multiple serious issues were discovered both pre-launch--causing delays--and during operation including numerous failures of the maneuvering thruster system. \n\nThe latest flight of Starliner, the [crew flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test) launched in 2024 and gained massive media attention as failures in the thruster system resulted in the astronauts getting \"stranded\" aboard the ISS. After investigation, Boeing and NASA have decided to not risk returning the astronauts on the partially defective Starliner capsule, instead returning them on a different spacecraft. The defective Starliner will return to earth, unmanned. \n\nLooking towards the future, there is currently a planned [Starliner-1 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1) in the \"fully operational phase\" of the Starliner Commercial Crew program, scheduled for no earlier than August, 2025. This mission, if it takes place, will begin a series of regular operational missions where Starliner transports four astronauts up to the ISS on a schedule. \n\nGenerally though, there are serious doubts about the future of the Boeing Starliner program. [For example, NASA has already double-booked the Starliner-1 Flight with the SpaceX-11 Flight](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starliner-passes-in-orbit-tests-but-first-operational-launch-slips/) in anticipation that Boeing will not be ready in time.\n\nThe technical issues, and more critically, the apparent inability of Boeing to fix known technical issues throw serious doubt upon Boeing's engineering skill and commitment to the program, making it likely that, for example, NASA insists on a fourth demo flight or potentially, Boeing decides to cut their losses and cancels the program.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if either of these events occur before October 1, 2024:\n\n- The Boeing Starliner Program ceases to be part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. \n- Boeing withdraws from the NASA Commercial Crew Program.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726064152.079951, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.41100000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726064152.079951, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.41100000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.589, 0.41100000000000003 ], "means": [ 0.3937898555457139 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4745033483135866, 0.0, 0.02074843352162435, 0.0, 0.07919054371229513, 0.07064756985194835, 0.1045235772690511, 0.4264383326117065, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7327271569085899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17249978086131545, 0.24233740095005632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.216998672059816, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.033113512353756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7801350150636246, 0.19376657685266277, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0468347457847071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6490564168471212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9195046140969454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03493560780589553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 23.633953916837363, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 23.633953916837363 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726064152.124346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726064152.124346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7891631988486919, 0.21083680115130807 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the [NASA Commercial Crew program](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/commercial-space/commercial-crew-program/) (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named *Starliner* to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS. \n\nUnfortunately, since inception, this Boeing program has been riddled with issues and delays. The [first orbital demo flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test), taking place in December 2019, was a failure as while the capsule was safely recovered, multiple serious issues during flight resulted in not completing mission objectives, such as reaching and docking with the ISS. \n\nDue to these issues, Boeing agreed to perform a [second orbital flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2) at \"no cost to the taxpayer\" with an estimated US$410 million out-of-pocket expenditure, and while this mission was nominally successful with the spacecraft docking to the ISS and returning safely, multiple serious issues were discovered both pre-launch--causing delays--and during operation including numerous failures of the maneuvering thruster system. \n\nThe latest flight of Starliner, the [crew flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test) launched in 2024 and gained massive media attention as failures in the thruster system resulted in the astronauts getting \"stranded\" aboard the ISS. 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[For example, NASA has already double-booked the Starliner-1 Flight with the SpaceX-11 Flight](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starliner-passes-in-orbit-tests-but-first-operational-launch-slips/) in anticipation that Boeing will not be ready in time.\n\nThe technical issues, and more critically, the apparent inability of Boeing to fix known technical issues throw serious doubt upon Boeing's engineering skill and commitment to the program, making it likely that, for example, NASA insists on a fourth demo flight or potentially, Boeing decides to cut their losses and cancels the program." }, { "id": 28008, "title": "Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-weekly-30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate-be-above-635-on-october-1-2024-according-to-freddie-mac", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 30-year fixed rate mortgage according to the resolution sounce as of September 8, 2024 was 6.35%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage exceeds 6.35% at the Freddie Mac tracker page at [this location](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms), when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024. If the 30-Yr FRM is less than or equal to 6.35%, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The resolution amount of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will be the one displayed at the moment Metaculus Admins access the Freddie Mac tracker page on October 1, 2024. It will be the rate listed as the 30-Yr FRM under \"Primary Mortgage Market Survey®\". It will be immaterial what period that covers, and the question will resolve based on whatever figure is shown. The time of day on October 1, 2024, that the page will be accessed is also not going to be listed; Metaculus Admins will merely access the webpage at their convenience at some point on that date and record the rate listed.", "post_id": 28008, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725977744.902919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725977744.902919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.4385367359865054 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 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Harris is well-known for saying \"I'm speaking\" in response to her debate opponents trying to interrupt her, such as in her 2020 vice presidential debate against Mike Pence. Notably, however, the microphones are currently planned in her debate with Trump to be muted for the candidate unless it's their turn to speak." }, { "id": 28002, "title": "Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Lithium carbonate price 70,000 CNY/T Oct '24", "url_title": "Lithium carbonate price 70,000 CNY/T Oct '24", "slug": "lithium-carbonate-price-70000-cnyt-oct-24", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-09T07:00:31.196559Z", "published_at": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.985836Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T22:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28002, "title": "Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-09T07:00:31.196559Z", "open_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T22:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-07T22:13:39.766506Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lithium carbonate, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, has experienced a significant price decline in recent months. As of September 2024, lithium carbonate prices in China have stabilized at around CNY 75,000 per tonne, the lowest level in over three years, before dropping again to 72,500 to close out the first week of trading. \n\nThis recent decline in lithium prices is part of a larger trend that has seen spot prices [fall over 80% since December 2022](https://www.bradley.com/insights/publications/2024/02/lithium-prices-in-free-fall-implications-for-clean-energy-transition-in-the-private-sector). The sudden deceleration in demand for lithium, particularly in the EV industry, caught suppliers by surprise, leading to a surplus that placed downward pressure on prices.\n\nDespite the current slump, the long-term outlook for lithium demand remains strong, as governments and private sector initiatives continue to push for a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy solutions. According to a study by [McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular), global demand for lithium-ion batteries is predicted to grow from around 700 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022 to 4,700 GWh in 2030, driven primarily by EVs, stationary storage, and consumer electronics.\n\n[S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/121923-us-canada-lithium-prospects-hope-to-advance-in-2024-despite-headwinds) projects that lithium carbonate prices will stabilize near current levels in a range between $20,000/mt and $25,000/mt from 2024 to 2027. However, given the recent volatility and the potential for further market disruptions, the question remains whether lithium carbonate prices will continue to decline in the near term, potentially falling below CNY 70,000 per tonne before October 1, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium), falls below 70,000, for any day's closing price, after September 10, 2024, and before October 1, 2024. \n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if the lithium carbonate price does not fall below 70,000 CNY/T during the specified time period.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28002, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754906.606212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754906.606212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.010129643263903209 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.173998540494456, 2.7144798924341536, 1.0571808619765612, 0.11576349060119034, 0.039753439271563294, 0.4720888817634713, 0.005951937961528494, 0.0, 0.020621981324100598, 0.03585734392959071, 0.0485569039707762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000805507209830206, 0.0, 0.012495570994977083, 0.027293938628526845, 0.004176477489548196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00946706080046129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021895956111741962, 0.0, 0.0034322177175539247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002772598180409281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005013548757078691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016749238171012292 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 35.638573910702945, "peer_score": 20.805374346485216, "coverage": 0.9999214638460102, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999214638460102, "spot_peer_score": 49.94454188411703, "baseline_archived_score": 35.638573910702945, "peer_archived_score": 20.805374346485216, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 49.94454188411703 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754906.6536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754906.6536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 513, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lithium carbonate, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, has experienced a significant price decline in recent months. As of September 2024, lithium carbonate prices in China have stabilized at around CNY 75,000 per tonne, the lowest level in over three years, before dropping again to 72,500 to close out the first week of trading. \n\nThis recent decline in lithium prices is part of a larger trend that has seen spot prices [fall over 80% since December 2022](https://www.bradley.com/insights/publications/2024/02/lithium-prices-in-free-fall-implications-for-clean-energy-transition-in-the-private-sector). The sudden deceleration in demand for lithium, particularly in the EV industry, caught suppliers by surprise, leading to a surplus that placed downward pressure on prices.\n\nDespite the current slump, the long-term outlook for lithium demand remains strong, as governments and private sector initiatives continue to push for a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy solutions. According to a study by [McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular), global demand for lithium-ion batteries is predicted to grow from around 700 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022 to 4,700 GWh in 2030, driven primarily by EVs, stationary storage, and consumer electronics.\n\n[S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/121923-us-canada-lithium-prospects-hope-to-advance-in-2024-despite-headwinds) projects that lithium carbonate prices will stabilize near current levels in a range between $20,000/mt and $25,000/mt from 2024 to 2027. However, given the recent volatility and the potential for further market disruptions, the question remains whether lithium carbonate prices will continue to decline in the near term, potentially falling below CNY 70,000 per tonne before October 1, 2024." }, { "id": 28000, "title": "Will Boar’s Head deli meat be safe to eat by November 30, 2024?", "short_title": "Deli Meat safe to eat?", "url_title": "Deli Meat safe to eat?", "slug": "deli-meat-safe-to-eat", "author_id": 205195, "author_username": "Jaz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-08T18:43:21.423361Z", "published_at": "2024-09-17T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.854379Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-17T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-17T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28000, "title": "Will Boar’s Head deli meat be safe to eat by November 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-08T18:43:21.423361Z", "open_time": "2024-09-17T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-20T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-22T01:18:33.605589Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boar's Head listeria outbreak began in July 2024, causing [9 deaths](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/listeria-outbreak-left-57-sick-9-dead/story?id=113276874) linked to the outbreak. According to the USDA's [latest announcement](https://boarshead.com/products-recall-2024) recalling and additional 7 million additional pounds of ready-to-eat meat and poultry products:\n\n>The problem was discovered when FSIS was notified that a liverwurst sample collected by the Maryland Department of Health tested positive for L. monocytogenes. The Maryland Department of Health, in collaboration with the Baltimore City Health Department, collected an unopened liverwurst product from a retail store for testing as part of an outbreak investigation of L. monocytogenes infections. Further testing determined the product sample tested positive for the outbreak strain. Anyone concerned about illness should contact a healthcare provider. \n\n>FSIS is working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state public health partners to investigate the multistate outbreak of L. monocytogenes infections linked to meats sliced at delis. As of July 30, 2024, 34 sick people have been identified in 13 states, including 33 hospitalizations and two deaths. Samples were collected from sick people from May 29, 2024, to July 12, 2024. The investigation is ongoing, and FSIS continues to work with the CDC and state partners. \n\nFor further context and background please see: \n\n- Forbes: [Everything To Know About The Listeria Outbreaks—As Boar’s Head Plant Closes Indefinitely](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/09/13/everything-to-know-about-the-listeria-outbreaks-as-boars-head-plant-closes-indefinitely/)\n\n- AP: [Recall of Boar’s Head deli meats announced during investigation of listeria outbreak](https://www.news10.com/news/national/ap-recall-of-boars-head-deli-meats-announced-during-investigation-of-listeria-outbreak/)\n\n- [July 2024 Boar's Head Product Recall Information](https://boarshead.com/products-recall-2024)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the Boar's Head Provisions Co., Inc. [recall posted](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/boars-head-provisions-co--expands-recall-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due) by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed from Active to Closed before November 30, 2024. \n\nIf the recall is still shown as Active when the above link is accessed by Metaculus on or after November 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered.", "post_id": 28000, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732179703.423844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732179703.423844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5921592528437979 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 1.5213394624823056, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9287429580134396 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 0.27555623415101016, "peer_score": 6.044297118906593, "coverage": 0.662186612767804, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9882747677605506, "spot_peer_score": 6.0744948793854725, "baseline_archived_score": 0.27555623415101016, "peer_archived_score": 6.044297118906593, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.0744948793854725 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287356.092959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287356.092959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6286122030982546, 0.3713877969017454 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boar's Head listeria outbreak began in July 2024, causing [9 deaths](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/listeria-outbreak-left-57-sick-9-dead/story?id=113276874) linked to the outbreak. According to the USDA's [latest announcement](https://boarshead.com/products-recall-2024) recalling and additional 7 million additional pounds of ready-to-eat meat and poultry products:\n\n>The problem was discovered when FSIS was notified that a liverwurst sample collected by the Maryland Department of Health tested positive for L. monocytogenes. The Maryland Department of Health, in collaboration with the Baltimore City Health Department, collected an unopened liverwurst product from a retail store for testing as part of an outbreak investigation of L. monocytogenes infections. Further testing determined the product sample tested positive for the outbreak strain. Anyone concerned about illness should contact a healthcare provider. \n\n>FSIS is working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state public health partners to investigate the multistate outbreak of L. monocytogenes infections linked to meats sliced at delis. As of July 30, 2024, 34 sick people have been identified in 13 states, including 33 hospitalizations and two deaths. Samples were collected from sick people from May 29, 2024, to July 12, 2024. The investigation is ongoing, and FSIS continues to work with the CDC and state partners. \n\nFor further context and background please see: \n\n- Forbes: [Everything To Know About The Listeria Outbreaks—As Boar’s Head Plant Closes Indefinitely](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/09/13/everything-to-know-about-the-listeria-outbreaks-as-boars-head-plant-closes-indefinitely/)\n\n- AP: [Recall of Boar’s Head deli meats announced during investigation of listeria outbreak](https://www.news10.com/news/national/ap-recall-of-boars-head-deli-meats-announced-during-investigation-of-listeria-outbreak/)\n\n- [July 2024 Boar's Head Product Recall Information](https://boarshead.com/products-recall-2024)" }, { "id": 27995, "title": "Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Will Intel be dropped from the DJIA Sept '24?", "url_title": "Will Intel be dropped from the DJIA Sept '24?", "slug": "will-intel-be-dropped-from-the-djia-sept-24", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-07T13:05:43.239758Z", "published_at": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.391017Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:29:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, 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"2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27995, "title": "Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-07T13:05:43.239758Z", "open_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T14:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 4, 2024, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/) that Intel was \"likely\" to be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average: \n\n>A removal from the index will hurt Intel's already bruised reputation. The company has missed out on the artificial intelligence boom after passing on an OpenAI investment and losses are mounting at the contract manufacturing unit that the chipmaker has been building out in hopes of challenging TSMC [Taiwan Semiconductor].\n\n>To fund a turnaround, Intel suspended [its] dividend and announced layoffs affecting 15% of its workforce during its earnings report last month. But some analysts and a former board member believe the moves might be too little, too late for the chipmaker.\n\n>\"Intel being removed was likely a long time coming,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group.\n\n>The latest results may be the final push needed to finally see the company removed from the Dow, Detrick added.\n\nAlong with Microsoft, Intel first entered the Dow [in October 1999](https://money.cnn.com/1999/10/26/markets/dowindustrials/), replacing Goodyear and Sears at the time, in a move considered to be one of the largest shakeups to date in the index, which was over a century old at that point.\n\nEstablished [in 1896](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100214/when-did-dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-begin.asp), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was intended as a small representative sample of the largest companies in the the US stock market, an objective it largely retains to this day. It's important to note that at the time, the word \"industrial\" had a broader meaning than it does today, for example [defined in 1912](https://www.google.com/books/edition/New_Websterian_1912_Dictionary/VkoZAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=industrial) as \"pertaining to productive industry,\" which is more akin to how the word \"corporate\" or \"business\" is defined today, as compared with the more narrow [modern definitions](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/industrial) mentioning factories or production of goods. (The original DJIA components and their histories are listed [here](https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/the-complete-history-of-the-original-dow-dozen/).)\n\nTwo contenders to replace Intel are: \n\n- Nvidia. Please see [Is Nvidia Going to Be Added to the Dow? Here's What 128 Years of History Suggests Will Happen.](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/17/nvidia-added-to-dow-what-128-years-history-suggest/)\n\n- Texas Instruments. Mentioned by the Reuters report as \"a nearly century-old chipmaker with significant production capacity within the United States.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** upon any official announcement or confirmation that Intel Corporation will no longer be a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting either on the official announcement or that Intel has been or will be removed from the index. \n\nIf no such announcement or reporting occurs before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Although removals from the index are generally effective immediately in order to forestall frontrunning, this is not a requirement for this question. All that is required is for there to be an announcement or confirmation before October 1, 2024 that Intel will be removed from the DJIA at any point in time. Therefore this question will resolve based on the announcement or confirmation, not on the actual removal date, if that removal date is after September 30, 2024.\n\nForecasters will note that this question makes certain implicit assumptions such as the DJIA index continuing to exist in its present form. For any edge cases that might make this question unable to be resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 27995, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754897.653822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754897.653822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005340574913923105 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.555362938123576, 3.9965783268273576, 0.3352365745384163, 0.004937664799221555, 0.04114727914664299, 0.012717395884100889, 0.001790116379774893, 0.010755654095857752, 0.0404697691408491, 0.0056879060040344945, 0.006438918665917176, 0.0, 0.0008735776126710382, 0.0026148795004889177, 0.0, 0.03559212902995307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015621335999661074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031043082091917864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.3198425722902085, "coverage": 0.9999179291644906, "baseline_score": 90.12266020006994, "spot_peer_score": 16.21278285772935, "peer_archived_score": 5.3198425722902085, "baseline_archived_score": 90.12266020006994, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.21278285772935 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754897.698923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754897.698923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 330, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 4, 2024, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/) that Intel was \"likely\" to be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average: \n\n>A removal from the index will hurt Intel's already bruised reputation. The company has missed out on the artificial intelligence boom after passing on an OpenAI investment and losses are mounting at the contract manufacturing unit that the chipmaker has been building out in hopes of challenging TSMC [Taiwan Semiconductor].\n\n>To fund a turnaround, Intel suspended [its] dividend and announced layoffs affecting 15% of its workforce during its earnings report last month. But some analysts and a former board member believe the moves might be too little, too late for the chipmaker.\n\n>\"Intel being removed was likely a long time coming,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group.\n\n>The latest results may be the final push needed to finally see the company removed from the Dow, Detrick added.\n\nAlong with Microsoft, Intel first entered the Dow [in October 1999](https://money.cnn.com/1999/10/26/markets/dowindustrials/), replacing Goodyear and Sears at the time, in a move considered to be one of the largest shakeups to date in the index, which was over a century old at that point.\n\nEstablished [in 1896](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100214/when-did-dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-begin.asp), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was intended as a small representative sample of the largest companies in the the US stock market, an objective it largely retains to this day. It's important to note that at the time, the word \"industrial\" had a broader meaning than it does today, for example [defined in 1912](https://www.google.com/books/edition/New_Websterian_1912_Dictionary/VkoZAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=industrial) as \"pertaining to productive industry,\" which is more akin to how the word \"corporate\" or \"business\" is defined today, as compared with the more narrow [modern definitions](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/industrial) mentioning factories or production of goods. (The original DJIA components and their histories are listed [here](https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/the-complete-history-of-the-original-dow-dozen/).)\n\nTwo contenders to replace Intel are: \n\n- Nvidia. Please see [Is Nvidia Going to Be Added to the Dow? Here's What 128 Years of History Suggests Will Happen.](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/17/nvidia-added-to-dow-what-128-years-history-suggest/)\n\n- Texas Instruments. Mentioned by the Reuters report as \"a nearly century-old chipmaker with significant production capacity within the United States.\"" }, { "id": 27993, "title": "Will the retail price of electricity in the US in 2030 be below 11 cents USD (2023 dollars)?", "short_title": "US 2030 Electricity Below 11 cents per kWh?", "url_title": "US 2030 Electricity Below 11 cents per kWh?", "slug": "us-2030-electricity-below-11-cents-per-kwh", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-07T04:07:39.520908Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T23:09:41.730507Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-03-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-12T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27993, "title": "Will the retail price of electricity in the US in 2030 be below 11 cents USD (2023 dollars)?", "created_at": "2024-09-07T04:07:39.520908Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-15T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-03-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the early 2020s, electric vehicles (EVs) have seen [increases in market share](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates), calling into question what factors may influence future trends in electric vehicle adoption. One possible factor is the [effect of electricity prices](https://www.ucits.org/research-project/2020-12/). Electricity prices may not only influence EV adoption, but also be influenced by EV adoption if it creates a significant increase in electricity demand.\n\nThe [US Energy Information Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Information_Administration) (EIA) tracks retail electricity prices in its chart [Average retail price of electricity](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/7?agg=0,1&geo=g&endsec=vg&linechart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A~~~~~&columnchart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-RES.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-COM.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-IND.A&map=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A&freq=A&start=2001&ctype=linechart<ype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0). According to its [methodology](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/methodology.php), the EIA creates these estimates from a monthly survey of electric retailers.\n\nAs of September 7, 2024, the community prediction for the [retail price of electricity in the US in (2022 dollars)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14770/annual-average-electricity-price-in-us/) is 10.98 cents per kwh. Since that question deals with 2022 dollars, this question will use depreciated dollars compared to that question, hence the target here is a little more ambitious than the median community prediction. Since the retail price in 2023 is 12.73 cents per kwh, the positive resolution of this question will require a 15.6 percent real decrease in retail electricity prices. However, the *real* retail price of electricity has remained constant for two decades, since the retail price of electricity in 2001 is 7.29 cents per kwh. The quotient of the 2023 price and 2001 price is 1.72, which corresponds to [inflation calculators](https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator) showing that 1 dollar in 2001 is worth $1.72 in 2023.\n\nAccording to [IRENA](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Aug/IRENA_Renewable_power_generation_costs_in_2022.pdf), the levelized cost of electricity from photovoltaic utility-scale solar is $0.049 per kwh in 2022 (figure 3.10, pg. 108). Moreover, [Lazard](https://www.lazard.com/media/xemfey0k/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2024-_vf.pdf) reports the levelized cost of electricity from utility-scale solar averages out to $0.061 per kwh in 2023 (pg. 16). This is lower than the retail price of electricity in 2023, and there is potential for further cost reductions in photovoltaics. Solar energy has the greatest potential for dramatic price reductions in the next decade, compared to other sources of energy. However, the Metaculus community (as of September 7, 2024) predicted that solar power would constitute [18.6 percent of electricity in the United States](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7932/percentage-of-us-solar-energy-in-2030/), while in 2023, solar constitutes [3.9 percent of all electricity generation](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3). Since the newly installed solar capacity would only be around for a few years, the capital expenditure on the solar panels would not have a significant amount of time to depreciate, which will limit any reduction in the retail price of electricity from solar power.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if the price of electricity (in 2023 US cents per kilowatt-hour [kWh]) in the United States in 2030 is less than 11 cents per kilowatthour, according to data provided by the [US Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/7?agg=0,1&geo=g&endsec=vg&linechart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A~~~~~&columnchart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-RES.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-COM.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-IND.A&map=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A&freq=A&start=2001&ctype=linechart<ype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0) (EIA). (The 2023 price per kWh is 12.72 cents USD.). For this question, prices will be inflation indexed to 2023 US dollars using the [Consumer Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL). The annual price for \"all sectors\" will be used, or the equivalent if EIA changes its terminology.\n\nIf the price is greater than or equal to 11 cents per kWh in 2023 dollars, this question resolves as **No**. \n\nThe EIA's data for 2030 is expected on March 1, 2031; If reported data contains a significant and obvious error (aside from typical adjustments from scheduled data releases), Metaculus may re-resolve the question at their sole discretion. If the EIA no longer reports data for 2030, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at its discretion or **annul** the question.", "fine_print": "Updates or revisions subsequent to the EIA's first posting of data for 2030 will be irrelevant to the question resolution. \n\nIf the data for 2030 is not posted on March 1, 2031, resolution will wait until it is. If it is not posted before July 1, 2032, this question will be **annulled**.\n\n1. If humanity suffers a catastrophe prior to 2030, this question will be Annulled.\n 1. For the purposes of this question, a catastrophe will be one which reduces the global human population below 80% of its peak over the previous 10 years prior to the listed year or which reduces US GDP to below 50% of its peak over the previous 10 years prior to the listed year, inflation adjusted using the [Consumer Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL).\n 2. The human population will include members of a species with enough biological similarity to reproduce with typical 2022 humans with medical assistance which could be available in the year 1900.\n2. If for any year world real GDP exceeds 130% of years prior to 2030 (i.e., if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) resolves as Yes prior to 2030), this question will resolve as Annulled.\n3. For the purposes of this question, in the case of territorial disputes or challenges to the United States' legitimacy, a successor government will be recognized as one which holds over 50% of the territory under the de facto control of the United States on December 1, 2022, and whose political capital city is within that same territory. For this question, the United States' territory is defined as its [50 states and incorporated and unincorporated territories](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territories_of_the_United_States). If the US no longer exists or has no successor as defined for the listed year, this question will resolve as Annulled.\n\nFor any other edge cases that may make this question unable to be resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 27993, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757579264.662255, "end_time": 1763462088.94029, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757579264.662255, "end_time": 1763462088.94029, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.25530806301778514 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 1.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289743.327973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289743.327973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6673617247539924, 0.33263827524600764 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the early 2020s, electric vehicles (EVs) have seen [increases in market share](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates), calling into question what factors may influence future trends in electric vehicle adoption. One possible factor is the [effect of electricity prices](https://www.ucits.org/research-project/2020-12/). Electricity prices may not only influence EV adoption, but also be influenced by EV adoption if it creates a significant increase in electricity demand.\n\nThe [US Energy Information Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Information_Administration) (EIA) tracks retail electricity prices in its chart [Average retail price of electricity](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/7?agg=0,1&geo=g&endsec=vg&linechart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A~~~~~&columnchart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-RES.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-COM.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-IND.A&map=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A&freq=A&start=2001&ctype=linechart<ype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0). According to its [methodology](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/methodology.php), the EIA creates these estimates from a monthly survey of electric retailers.\n\nAs of September 7, 2024, the community prediction for the [retail price of electricity in the US in (2022 dollars)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14770/annual-average-electricity-price-in-us/) is 10.98 cents per kwh. Since that question deals with 2022 dollars, this question will use depreciated dollars compared to that question, hence the target here is a little more ambitious than the median community prediction. Since the retail price in 2023 is 12.73 cents per kwh, the positive resolution of this question will require a 15.6 percent real decrease in retail electricity prices. However, the *real* retail price of electricity has remained constant for two decades, since the retail price of electricity in 2001 is 7.29 cents per kwh. The quotient of the 2023 price and 2001 price is 1.72, which corresponds to [inflation calculators](https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator) showing that 1 dollar in 2001 is worth $1.72 in 2023.\n\nAccording to [IRENA](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Aug/IRENA_Renewable_power_generation_costs_in_2022.pdf), the levelized cost of electricity from photovoltaic utility-scale solar is $0.049 per kwh in 2022 (figure 3.10, pg. 108). Moreover, [Lazard](https://www.lazard.com/media/xemfey0k/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2024-_vf.pdf) reports the levelized cost of electricity from utility-scale solar averages out to $0.061 per kwh in 2023 (pg. 16). This is lower than the retail price of electricity in 2023, and there is potential for further cost reductions in photovoltaics. Solar energy has the greatest potential for dramatic price reductions in the next decade, compared to other sources of energy. However, the Metaculus community (as of September 7, 2024) predicted that solar power would constitute [18.6 percent of electricity in the United States](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7932/percentage-of-us-solar-energy-in-2030/), while in 2023, solar constitutes [3.9 percent of all electricity generation](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3). Since the newly installed solar capacity would only be around for a few years, the capital expenditure on the solar panels would not have a significant amount of time to depreciate, which will limit any reduction in the retail price of electricity from solar power." } ] }
