Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2100
{ "count": 6333, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2120", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2080", "results": [ { "id": 29956, "title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026?", "short_title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule in 2025?", "slug": "will-brazil-ban-the-6x1-work-schedule-in-2025", "author_id": 226489, "author_username": "lucas.somensi", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-13T01:22:38.620768Z", "published_at": "2024-11-15T02:48:09.078587Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T01:33:37.081269Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-15T02:48:09.078585Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-22T02:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29790, "title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026?", "created_at": "2024-11-13T01:22:38.620869Z", "open_time": "2024-11-22T02:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-27T02:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-27T02:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There is currently [a lot of talk](https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2024/11/11/why-is-everyone-talking-about-the-6x1-work-schedule-in-brazil ) about banning the 6x1 work schedule (6 working days, 1 off) for registered workers in Brazil. Proponents claim that working 6 days a week is too exhausting and doesn't leave enough time for workers to rest, socialize and run errands. An ambitious constitutional ammendment has recently [been proposed](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2024/11/proposal-to-reduce-weekly-work-hours-in-brazil-gains-momentum-in-congress.shtml) by two Brazilian congress members that would mandate a 4x3 schedule for all workers and has garnered some support.\n\nPortuguese language sources:\n- https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2024/11/12/fim-da-escala-6x1-o-que-muda-se-pec-for-aprovada-no-congresso.htm\n- https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/redacao/2024/11/12/o-que-e-a-escala-6x1-entenda-o-que-propoe-a-pec-para-reducao-da-jornada.htm", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the 6x1 work schedule is officialy banned for most CLT occupations in Brazil before 1 January 2026, and will resolve as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "This question concerns only CLT occupations in Brazil (registered workers), and will resolve to **Yes** even if employers find legal workarounds to keep hiring people in 6x1 work schedules after a ban.\n\nIn Brazil, a CLT worker is someone employed under the rules of the Consolidação das Leis do Trabalho (CLT), or the Consolidation of Labor Laws. This legislation governs employment relations and protects workers' rights in Brazil. Being a CLT worker means you’re formally employed and entitled to a range of rights and protections set out in Brazilian labor laws.\n\n\"Most CLT occupations\" here means that the law lists no more than 5 exceptions to the general rule, affecting in total no more than 1% of the workforce", "post_id": 29956, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762738406.002775, "end_time": 1764668255.33, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762738406.002775, "end_time": 1764668255.33, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.029162151797935583 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.16753160313064, 1.3285337023064252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There is currently [a lot of talk](https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2024/11/11/why-is-everyone-talking-about-the-6x1-work-schedule-in-brazil ) about banning the 6x1 work schedule (6 working days, 1 off) for registered workers in Brazil. Proponents claim that working 6 days a week is too exhausting and doesn't leave enough time for workers to rest, socialize and run errands. An ambitious constitutional ammendment has recently [been proposed](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2024/11/proposal-to-reduce-weekly-work-hours-in-brazil-gains-momentum-in-congress.shtml) by two Brazilian congress members that would mandate a 4x3 schedule for all workers and has garnered some support.\n\nPortuguese language sources:\n- https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2024/11/12/fim-da-escala-6x1-o-que-muda-se-pec-for-aprovada-no-congresso.htm\n- https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/redacao/2024/11/12/o-que-e-a-escala-6x1-entenda-o-que-propoe-a-pec-para-reducao-da-jornada.htm" }, { "id": 29948, "title": "Will the US sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-sanction-venezuelan-oil-again-by-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.354902Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.937011Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T22:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-12T22:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29782, "title": "Will the US sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.354902Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-12T22:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-12T22:34:36.256238Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T22:34:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-easing-venezuela-oil-sanctions-response-election-deal-official-2023-10-18/):\n\n> The Biden administration...broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in response to a deal reached between the government and opposition parties for the 2024 election - the most extensive rollback of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas.\n\n> A new general license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department authorized OPEC member Venezuela, which had been under crushing sanctions since 2019, to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that sanctions on Venezuelan oil have been (re)imposed by the United States.\n\nAny imposition or reimposition of sanctions that were not in effect on December 15, 2023, will be sufficient for resolution. This includes a reversal of the Biden-administration's sanction relief.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29948, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731446416.597436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.442 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731446416.597436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.442 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.558, 0.442 ], "means": [ 0.5234088698659439 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9137915745633833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6043687854556801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13777525111476435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.885236146413569, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-easing-venezuela-oil-sanctions-response-election-deal-official-2023-10-18/):\n\n> The Biden administration...broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in response to a deal reached between the government and opposition parties for the 2024 election - the most extensive rollback of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas.\n\n> A new general license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department authorized OPEC member Venezuela, which had been under crushing sanctions since 2019, to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation." }, { "id": 29947, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up in December 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-sp-500-index-go-up-in-december-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.339848Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.145894Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the final trading day of December 2024 is higher than that of the final trading day of November 2024.", "fine_print": "The \"close\" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.", "post_id": 29947, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731511654.562738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.7343999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731511654.562738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.7343999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26560000000000006, 0.7343999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.733900161818121 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.5898871216012381, 0.011364900518339544, 0.3660118313347263, 0.11525585627893538, 1.0886780527540525, 0.29095551644889905, 1.0292532289534815, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4113099022665083, 1.030893002561247, 1.1000748513409002, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.22827012898946356, 0.25191033108110095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.064007478133974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -83.00888200974912, "peer_score": 9.511926941370556, "coverage": 0.9976442675237304, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9976442675237304, "spot_peer_score": 3.7424230150043876, "spot_baseline_score": -91.26729482025243, "baseline_archived_score": -83.00888200974912, "peer_archived_score": 9.511926941370556, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.7424230150043876, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -91.26729482025243 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. 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Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy." }, { "id": 29946, "title": "Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-december-31-2024-will-tech-crunch-report-new-layoffs-at-netflix", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.172839Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.068112Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:16:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29780, "title": "Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.172839Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T22:17:27.549126Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the launch of this question, Tech Crunch did not have Netflix listed on its tracker as having had any material layoffs in 2024. In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/11/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Netflix has layoffs following the launch of this question and before December 31, 2024. To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on December 31, 2024, and see if Netflix appears for October 2024, November 2024, or December 2024. If Netflix is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \"\n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Netflix. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.", "post_id": 29946, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731511666.184602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35600699811284225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731511666.184602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35600699811284225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6439930018871578, 0.35600699811284225 ], "means": [ 0.35993330092119336 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.5670536722468447, 0.0, 1.4503239917831108, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.9177123825992602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8389489928958105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3289105560569624, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07205665544157025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.18735014556338, "peer_score": 52.11109854619179, "coverage": 0.9966086997809234, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9966086997809234, "spot_peer_score": 27.389742676827176, "spot_baseline_score": 36.51169161271433, "baseline_archived_score": 61.18735014556338, "peer_archived_score": 52.11109854619179, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.389742676827176, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 36.51169161271433 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the launch of this question, Tech Crunch did not have Netflix listed on its tracker as having had any material layoffs in 2024. In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022" }, { "id": 29945, "title": "Will Morgan Wallen win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-morgan-wallen-win-an-award-in-any-of-these-2024-cma-awards-categories", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.160672Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.603223Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29779, "title": "Will Morgan Wallen win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:35.160672Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T14:23:02.237914Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Morgan Wallen wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Male Vocalist of the Year, Single of the Year, Song of the Year, Music Video of the Year, or Musical Event of the Year, as announced at the 58th Annual Country Music Association Awards. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**. 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If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/history/). 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This question resolves based on the announcement of him being picked for a role by the incoming Administration, not beginning his duties; therefore requirements such as Senate confirmation will not affect resolution.", "post_id": 29942, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731511712.658266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.2201811472802666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731511712.658266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.2201811472802666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7798188527197334, 0.2201811472802666 ], "means": [ 0.3655159739323218 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 1.538419932216574, 0.0, 0.5423118315640207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.22827012898946356, 0.5608812398816437, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.2581744010322857, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7331794611934134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5142208731912319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9511683097991879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.048425156772346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.84312314878706, "peer_score": 40.918412463514514, "coverage": 0.9923400977998973, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9923400977998973, "spot_peer_score": 37.08606177174744, "spot_baseline_score": 64.12109385305267, "baseline_archived_score": 75.84312314878706, "peer_archived_score": 40.918412463514514, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.08606177174744, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 64.12109385305267 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNN: [Trump’s allies are already jockeying for high-powered spots in his administration](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/politics/transition-donald-trump-jockeying/index.html)\n" }, { "id": 29941, "title": "Will the Alta ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on November 22, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-alta-ski-resort-be-listed-as-open-by-on-the-snows-ski-report-on-november-22-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:34.414955Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.493821Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-22T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-23T16:56:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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Please note ski conditions and snowfall at Vail are sourced directly from the ski resort and are only recorded during the official ski season's opening to closing dates.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Alta Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/utah/alta-ski-area/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after November 22, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. 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Please note ski conditions and snowfall at Vail are sourced directly from the ski resort and are only recorded during the official ski season's opening to closing dates.\"" }, { "id": 29940, "title": "Will the cheapest new Tesla Model 3 be listed as under $43,000 on December 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cheapest-new-tesla-model-3-be-listed-as-under-43000-on-december-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:34.206595Z", "published_at": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.144468Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T19:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29774, "title": "Will the cheapest new Tesla Model 3 be listed as under $43,000 on December 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T14:19:34.206595Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T19:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-30T19:19:32.663962Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-13T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of November 11, 2024, this price was $42,490", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 30, 2024, the cheapest Tesla Model 3 for US buyers is offered at the Tesla website for under $43,000. 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"2024-11-17T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T11:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T17:32:27.773310Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T11:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 11, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for any individual, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If there are no reports of the ICC issuing any arrest warrants during that period, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Summonses to appear will not count. For more information please see the ICC's [How the Court works](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works), especially the following, under *Investigations*:\n\n>After gathering evidence and identifying a suspect, the Prosecution requests ICC judges to issue:\n>1. an arrest warrant: the ICC relies on countries to make arrests and transfer suspects to the ICC; or\n>2. a summons to appear: suspects appear voluntarily (if not, an arrest warrant may be issued).\n\nSecret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before January 1, 2025. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before January 1, 2025, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.", "post_id": 29903, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732206992.717165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732206992.717165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.8822220837938244 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005954525306226569, 0.07331325067154816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3145176947817463, 0.0, 0.16068379644262276, 0.007784236121081673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1019411890162417, 0.09222549710312164, 0.1279124780640235, 0.35115580285832837, 0.024887815310673432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021159747596370834, 0.03267148230367475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11472253092930257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03877020169610887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30155575609455343, 0.0, 0.3657193231829638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.083724180352675 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -21.267045600612395, "peer_score": 0.8276656177770025, "coverage": 0.1460535258791804, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999220082261084, "spot_peer_score": 10.656409854285435, "spot_baseline_score": -139.59286763311394, "baseline_archived_score": -21.267045600612395, "peer_archived_score": 0.8276656177770025, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.656409854285435, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -139.59286763311394 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued." }, { "id": 29902, "title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "short_title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "url_title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "slug": "will-astro-bot-win-the-game-of-the-year-2024-award", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T04:19:29.286135Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T05:54:58.337694Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.037389Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-13T05:54:58.337692Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-11T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-11T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T15:23:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29743, "title": "Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T04:19:29.286259Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-17T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-17T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-13T15:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-13T15:24:14.369020Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-11T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-11T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November.\n\n[Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Astro Bot wins the Game of the Year award for 2024 at [The Game Awards](https://thegameawards.com/). If the awards ceremony takes place and Astro Bot does not win Game of the Year, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The Game Awards ceremony is [currently scheduled](https://thegameawards.com/watch) for December 12, 2024. Any delays will still count. However, if the ceremony does not take place before January 1, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**. \n\nIf Astro Bot shares the Game of the Year award it will still count.", "post_id": 29902, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733905589.332106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733905589.332106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.30689268757912147 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4920871871406355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15044316718241518, 0.5787050652104242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15035875300365373, 0.4939101961181519, 0.025043422762740086, 0.12673119260075266, 1.1593592762462361, 0.0, 1.1351546366779899, 0.13816622619390675, 0.0, 0.993328287122746, 0.28570051944328617, 0.5504080675336276, 0.6743195377416064, 0.2263451221037383, 0.06645500596732509, 0.0, 0.5175393827095163, 0.0, 0.0011024176184751514, 0.3736277967477001, 0.0, 1.2654236712490192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6792350590543265, 0.0, 0.9377395971546344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8788826202526011, 1.5885226963260082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492799034882604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08847061033139408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -107.98265108910452, "peer_score": 33.32958775459136, "coverage": 0.9999872614908663, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999872614908663, "spot_peer_score": 8.73620300800291, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "baseline_archived_score": -107.98265108910452, "peer_archived_score": 33.32958775459136, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.73620300800291, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 197, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November.\n\n[Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY." }, { "id": 29901, "title": "Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will North Korea Send Troops to Ukraine Before 2025?", "url_title": "Will North Korea Send Troops to Ukraine Before 2025?", "slug": "will-north-korea-send-troops-to-ukraine-before-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-12T00:29:40.005486Z", "published_at": "2024-11-13T05:49:56.623754Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.602688Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-13T05:49:56.623752Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T12:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29742, "title": "Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-12T00:29:40.005568Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-17T15:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-17T15:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T12:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T22:30:06.686343Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "North Korea and Russia have significantly strenghened their military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine. In September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [visited Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66810830), meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential military and economic collaboration. In early November 2024, Ukraine [fought](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14le0p4310o) North Korean troops for the first time, while [more recent reports](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/10/europe/russia-north-korea-forces-prepared-kursk-ukraine/index.html) claim that 10,000 [North Korean troops](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army) will join Russian soldiers in an attempt to take back the Ukraine-occupied region of Kursk.\r\n\r\n[Moreover](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/i/151515209/asia)\r\n\r\n> South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600K to 700K tonnes of rice to North Korea, $200M, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.\r\n\r\nHowever, until November 12, 2024, there have been no reports of North Korean troops in Ukrainian soil.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that at least 100 North Korean troops have entered Ukrainian soil before January 1, 2025.\r\n\r\n If no credible reports indicate the simultaneous presence of 100 or more North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "- Ukrainian soil is defined based on the pre-2014 internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.\r\n- This question pertains only to personnel who have been members of any of the five branches of North Korea's military forces, the Korean People's Army.\r\n- This question will resolve based on the best information available as of January 7, 2025.\r\n- For purposes of this question, troops will count as North Korean military personnel if they are identified as such by credible sources. This is true even in the event of edge cases such as them wearing non-North Korean insignia, being under the command of Russian officers, or being deployed as part of multinational units. \r\n- Non-combat roles such as logistical support count as well, as long as the North Korean personnel are present on pre-2014 Ukrainian soil.", "post_id": 29901, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735637589.487432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735637589.487432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008575941864671123 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.516853877100486, 3.8287491439926145, 0.16577836639740004, 0.741304689268395, 0.3614544889050556, 0.12563782442644572, 0.050047971966198035, 0.0013964902613327744, 0.0036464791920768538, 0.014705341890567212, 0.008108648421277223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007745482461618098, 0.0, 0.012027806824740892, 0.004764507471173336, 0.0309623970006842, 0.0007321358620784834, 0.0, 0.02161474301439808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004075565365447296, 0.0, 0.01313726468048236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005409792956936867, 0.0, 0.0016763820783180668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010790073396447676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027314582170858293, 0.0, 0.0009270746381897505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026933773180300467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004178148511023217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00867414512829912 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.23318771726684, "peer_score": 22.259499811408347, "coverage": 0.9973112259273458, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9973112259273458, "spot_peer_score": 24.52232579908637, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 80.23318771726684, "peer_archived_score": 22.259499811408347, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.52232579908637, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 500, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "North Korea and Russia have significantly strenghened their military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine. In September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [visited Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66810830), meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential military and economic collaboration. In early November 2024, Ukraine [fought](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14le0p4310o) North Korean troops for the first time, while [more recent reports](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/10/europe/russia-north-korea-forces-prepared-kursk-ukraine/index.html) claim that 10,000 [North Korean troops](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army) will join Russian soldiers in an attempt to take back the Ukraine-occupied region of Kursk.\r\n\r\n[Moreover](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/i/151515209/asia)\r\n\r\n> South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600K to 700K tonnes of rice to North Korea, $200M, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.\r\n\r\nHowever, until November 12, 2024, there have been no reports of North Korean troops in Ukrainian soil." }, { "id": 29900, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 29741, "title": "Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T23:23:41.569744Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-17T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-17T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T22:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-04T22:39:31.498960Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies combined. BTC dominance has fluctuated over the years. It reached a low of 38.3% in 2022, but has been steadily rising since, achieving a local peak of 60.0% on November 13, 2024.\n\nThe rise could be attributed to multiple factors. The SEC's [approval](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-gives-green-light-options-listing-spot-bitcoin-etfs-nyse-2024-10-18/) of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 increased accessibility for mainstream investors, drawing significant capital into BTC. Donald Trump's re-election might have further driven the rise in BTC dominance as, according to [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89v1w5lxxqo):\n\n> In the run-up to the election Trump said he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint digital asset-friendly financial regulators - spurring expectations that he would strip back regulations on the crypto industry.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 5 January 2025, [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) reports a Bitcoin dominance value of 63.1% or higher for any single date in November or December 2024.", "fine_print": "- This question is about the daily dominance value and, therefore, resolution will be based on the values that are shown on the graph. To avoid resolving on preliminary values, the most recent value on the graph will not be considered.\n- If CoinMarketCap is unavailable or does not report the relevant data between January 1 and January 5, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 29900, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735585158.43434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735585158.43434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0030449245934983703 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.344522449901783, 1.5192939520148894, 0.16891130366353677, 0.021612403177388988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010154633171455994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0525193690386395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006710788861047596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013954015504436714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018241815415611054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006805670804060742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.36887672648908, "peer_score": 7.36420799945852, "coverage": 0.99999435360085, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99999435360085, "spot_peer_score": -4.643925415317108, "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 85.36887672648908, "peer_archived_score": 7.36420799945852, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.643925415317108, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 551, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies combined. BTC dominance has fluctuated over the years. It reached a low of 38.3% in 2022, but has been steadily rising since, achieving a local peak of 60.0% on November 13, 2024.\n\nThe rise could be attributed to multiple factors. The SEC's [approval](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-gives-green-light-options-listing-spot-bitcoin-etfs-nyse-2024-10-18/) of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 increased accessibility for mainstream investors, drawing significant capital into BTC. Donald Trump's re-election might have further driven the rise in BTC dominance as, according to [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89v1w5lxxqo):\n\n> In the run-up to the election Trump said he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint digital asset-friendly financial regulators - spurring expectations that he would strip back regulations on the crypto industry." }, { "id": 29887, "title": "Will either major party candidate in California’s 22nd Congressional District concede the election before December 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-either-major-party-candidate-in-californias-22nd-congressional-district-concede-the-election-before-december-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.459867Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.765769Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-15T19:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29729, "title": "Will either major party candidate in California’s 22nd Congressional District concede the election before December 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.459867Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-15T19:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-15T19:03:55.561218Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the 2022 midterms, CA-22 was one of the slowest elections to be called, with the Democratic challenger [conceding](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/politics/california-22-valadao-salas/index.html) on November 22, 2022. See also: [Why does it take California so long to count votes?](https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/03/california-election-results-vote-counting/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before December 1, 2024, either the Republican or Democratic candidate concedes the race for California’s 22nd Congressional District, according to credible source reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Subsequent withdrawals of a concession (such as [happened in 2018](https://apnews.com/united-states-house-of-representatives-general-news-house-elections-464da5eba8134d5a93f4504fed811fbc)) will not cause this question to re-resolve.", "post_id": 29887, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731425389.265484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.602 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7041499999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731425389.265484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.602 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7041499999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.398, 0.602 ], "means": [ 0.550357767772606 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9528368743815119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5848426281220769, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7786927681952075, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.8676520897500979, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 1.0266983994102854, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257194070197468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.39831147385979765, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 36.5676133620092, "peer_score": 17.738202620640994, "coverage": 0.9942070422680289, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9942070422680289, "spot_peer_score": 11.608815081283288, "spot_baseline_score": 26.783539209761496, "baseline_archived_score": 36.5676133620092, "peer_archived_score": 17.738202620640994, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.608815081283288, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.783539209761496 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the 2022 midterms, CA-22 was one of the slowest elections to be called, with the Democratic challenger [conceding](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/politics/california-22-valadao-salas/index.html) on November 22, 2022. See also: [Why does it take California so long to count votes?](https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/03/california-election-results-vote-counting/)" }, { "id": 29886, "title": "Will Jelly Roll win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jelly-roll-win-an-award-in-any-of-these-2024-cma-awards-categories", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.169261Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.562725Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29728, "title": "Will Jelly Roll win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.169261Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T14:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T14:22:20.793900Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Jelly Roll wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Album of the Year, or Male Vocalist of the Year, as announced at the 58th Annual Country Music Association Awards. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**. 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For example: [Moderate drought spreads across East Texas](https://www.cbs19.tv/article/weather/weather-impact/drought-spreads-across-east-texas/501-c803993d-40df-46a1-9cef-e8d741049647)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/texas) lists greater than or equal to 15.0 million Texas residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 15.0 million, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. 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For example: [Moderate drought spreads across East Texas](https://www.cbs19.tv/article/weather/weather-impact/drought-spreads-across-east-texas/501-c803993d-40df-46a1-9cef-e8d741049647)" } ] }
