Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2120
{ "count": 5959, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2140", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2100", "results": [ { "id": 27983, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso be stuck in space on September 30?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starliner-calypso-be-stuck-in-space-on-september-30", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.646985Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.316587Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27983, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso be stuck in space on September 30?", "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.646985Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass.", "resolution_criteria": "If Starliner Calypso is reported by credible sources to have touched ground at either of\n\n- White Sands,\n- Willcox Playa,\n- Dugway Proving Ground, or \n- Edwards Air Force Base,\n\nthis question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have touched ground, but not at any of the planned sites, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have splashed down, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have burned up in the atmosphere, or if it for some other reason disintegrates to the point where one can no longer claim \"the spacecraft\" has touched down at any specific location, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf none of the above are true, this question resolves to **Yes**.", "fine_print": "\"Touched ground\" can be described in various ways, such as \"landed\", \"crashed\", or any such phrase indicating that the spacecraft experiences a normal force exerted by the ground roughly equivalent to the force of gravity. \n\n\"Splashdown\" can similarly be described any number of ways, but a similar judgment as above can be made regarding whether the spacecraft entered water as part of the ground return maneuver.\n\nIf evidence seems to indicate the spacecraft has left space but we do not know where it ended up, this question resolves **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 27983, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719351.041584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719351.041584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.19916123577889858 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.48857997837153144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8214427870695362, 1.2894390459922271, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7917813399172585, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.40721210296938604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7910469104158988, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719351.073716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719351.073716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8314276274344417, 0.1685723725655583 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass." }, { "id": 27982, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso disintegrate in the atmosphere by September 30?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starliner-calypso-disintegrate-in-the-atmosphere-by-september-30", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.533126Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.178582Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27982, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso disintegrate in the atmosphere by September 30?", "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.533126Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-07T16:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass.", "resolution_criteria": "If Starliner Calypso is reported by credible sources to have touched ground at either of\n\n- White Sands,\n- Willcox Playa,\n- Dugway Proving Ground, or \n- Edwards Air Force Base,\n\nthis question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have touched ground, but not at any of the planned sites, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have splashed down, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have burned up in the atmosphere, or if it for some other reason disintegrates to the point where one can no longer claim \"the spacecraft\" has touched down at any specific location, the question resolves to **Yes**.\n\nIf none of the above are true, this question resolves to **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Touched ground\" can be described in various ways, such as \"landed\", \"crashed\", or any such phrase indicating that the spacecraft experiences a normal force exerted by the ground roughly equivalent to the force of gravity. \n\n\"Splashdown\" can similarly be described any number of ways, but a similar judgment as above can be made regarding whether the spacecraft entered water as part of the ground return maneuver.\n\nIf evidence seems to indicate the spacecraft has left space but we do not know where it ended up, this question resolves **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 27982, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719157.403467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719157.403467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.13076739266225249 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7549731054070336, 0.9843694802587779, 0.3744189878296461, 0.0, 0.12240282705354902, 1.3797263270842692, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 1.1575814145795227, 0.8251610652676543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37737673185306586, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6944519924277246, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719157.443927, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719157.443927, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9604796286205165, 0.0395203713794835 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass." }, { "id": 27981, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso splashdown in any body of water by September 30?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starliner-calypso-splashdown-in-any-body-of-water-by-september-30", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.422347Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.483606Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27981, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso splashdown in any body of water by September 30?", "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.422347Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass.", "resolution_criteria": "If Starliner Calypso is reported by credible sources to have touched ground at either of\n\n- White Sands,\n- Willcox Playa,\n- Dugway Proving Ground, or \n- Edwards Air Force Base,\n\nthis question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have touched ground, but not at any of the planned sites, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have splashed down, the question resolves to **Yes**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have burned up in the atmosphere, or if it for some other reason disintegrates to the point where one can no longer claim \"the spacecraft\" has touched down at any specific location, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf none of the above are true, this question resolves to **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Touched ground\" can be described in various ways, such as \"landed\", \"crashed\", or any such phrase indicating that the spacecraft experiences a normal force exerted by the ground roughly equivalent to the force of gravity. \n\n\"Splashdown\" can similarly be described any number of ways, but a similar judgment as above can be made regarding whether the spacecraft entered water as part of the ground return maneuver.\n\nIf evidence seems to indicate the spacecraft has left space but we do not know where it ended up, this question resolves **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 27981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719253.710482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.051 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3123333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719253.710482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.051 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3123333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.18859523549825014 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3363948160314558, 0.3937868987039119, 0.21228082485103633, 0.034391231724457294, 0.8859183200045558, 0.037197912973893646, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8501391537655245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.9260226628871724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12926020709682073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719253.738609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719253.738609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9003254503249448, 0.09967454967505515 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass." }, { "id": 27980, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso touch ground somewhere other than at one of the planned sites by September 30?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starliner-calypso-touch-ground-somewhere-other-than-at-one-of-the-planned-sites-by-september-30", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.309665Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.579296Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27980, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso touch ground somewhere other than at one of the planned sites by September 30?", "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.309665Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-07T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass.", "resolution_criteria": "If Starliner Calypso is reported by credible sources to have touched ground at either of\n\n- White Sands,\n- Willcox Playa,\n- Dugway Proving Ground, or \n- Edwards Air Force Base,\n\nthis question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have touched ground, but not at any of the planned sites, this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have splashed down, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have burned up in the atmosphere, or if it for some other reason disintegrates to the point where one can no longer claim \"the spacecraft\" has touched down at any specific location, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf none of the above are true, this question resolves to **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Touched ground\" can be described in various ways, such as \"landed\", \"crashed\", or any such phrase indicating that the spacecraft experiences a normal force exerted by the ground roughly equivalent to the force of gravity. \n\n\"Splashdown\" can similarly be described any number of ways, but a similar judgment as above can be made regarding whether the spacecraft entered water as part of the ground return maneuver.\n\nIf evidence seems to indicate the spacecraft has left space but we do not know where it ended up, this question resolves **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 27980, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719345.387169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.077 ], "centers": [ 0.131 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719345.387169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.077 ], "centers": [ 0.131 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.869, 0.131 ], "means": [ 0.19965654017054502 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.5966385346030553, 1.502205042923784, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.8728010511597732, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.9275931041230052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719345.42548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719345.42548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9267459424753502, 0.07325405752464974 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass." }, { "id": 27979, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso touch ground at any of the planned sites by September 30?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starliner-calypso-touch-ground-at-any-of-the-planned-sites-by-september-30", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.127337Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.756742Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27979, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso touch ground at any of the planned sites by September 30?", "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.127337Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass.", "resolution_criteria": "If Starliner Calypso is reported by credible sources to have touched ground at either of\n\n- White Sands,\n- Willcox Playa,\n- Dugway Proving Ground, or \n- Edwards Air Force Base,\n\nthis question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have touched ground, but not at any of the planned sites, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have splashed down, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have burned up in the atmosphere, or if it for some other reason disintegrates to the point where one can no longer claim \"the spacecraft\" has touched down at any specific location, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf none of the above are true, this question resolves to **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Touched ground\" can be described in various ways, such as \"landed\", \"crashed\", or any such phrase indicating that the spacecraft experiences a normal force exerted by the ground roughly equivalent to the force of gravity. \n\n\"Splashdown\" can similarly be described any number of ways, but a similar judgment as above can be made regarding whether the spacecraft entered water as part of the ground return maneuver.\n\nIf evidence seems to indicate the spacecraft has left space but we do not know where it ended up, this question resolves **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 27979, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719207.776896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719207.776896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.6982055526554674 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5477580557959694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1696648168828054, 0.3190127781780022, 0.10829599059260063, 0.6803385023255489, 0.7320891388291473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.6084093106726526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719207.817457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719207.817457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.42770005724547666, 0.5722999427545233 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass." }, { "id": 27969, "title": "Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-fargo-win-the-2024-primetime-emmy-award-for-outstanding-limited-or-anthology-series", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T23:27:46.266975Z", "published_at": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.311196Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27969, "title": "Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T23:27:46.266975Z", "open_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Fargo is on FX. Other contenders are: Baby Reindeer (Netflix), Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+), Ripley (Netflix), True Detective: Night Country (HBO)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the TV series Fargo wins the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [76th Primetime Emmy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/76th_Primetime_Emmy_Awards) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards show is scheduled for September 15, 2024.", "post_id": 27969, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725632144.035151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5299999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725632144.035151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5299999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4268565299031136 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5540662843316813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 1.6858220880980965, 0.0, 0.3917451535783666, 1.1189722866763407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0068036519510613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6489363679700544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22511059660382657, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725632144.069239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725632144.069239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.68301889969224, 0.3169811003077601 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fargo is on FX. 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The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MTV Video Music Awards\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_MTV_Video_Music_Awards) or other credible sources reporting on this awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.\"", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for September 10, 2024. 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}, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tesla had two layoff events listed in April 2024, one for its charging team and one for an announced layoff round of 10% of its global workforce. Tesla has come under stress recently as its sales growth in its automotive segment have lagged.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Tesla has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Tesla appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Tesla is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Tesla. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. 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", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a Form 10-K filed for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2024, for Greystone Logistics, Inc., at [this specific SEC Edgar link](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001088413&owner=exclude). If there is no such 10-K filed before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, in order to facilitate streamlined resolution no other resolution source will be considered, so forecasters are urged to predict accordingly. If SEC's Edgar site is down, resolution will wait for up to 7 days. 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This year, the ANO movement has the greatest electoral [potential](https://fs2-ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/file/cms/ct24/attachments/REP_CT_Krajske_volby_2024_FIN.pdf) in all regions, so cooperation with it may sometimes be inevitable.\n\n The great added value of the question is the prediction of dynamics in Czech politics - a higher degree/ability of cooperation between selected government parties and the ANO movement may be an indication for the parliamentary elections that await the Czech Republic next fall.", "resolution_criteria": "We will evaluate the question based on verified reports from trusted media.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730623494.319812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730623494.319812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9806706694822894 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5678900028155001, 0.0, 1.2025255199250524, 0.0, 4.967819575517175 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9890357907590355, "peer_score": 2.8133742014908116, "coverage": 0.9890357907590355, "baseline_score": 95.3034509520555, "spot_peer_score": 0.34662079764865705, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629772, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 2.8133742014908116, "baseline_archived_score": 95.3034509520555, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.34662079764865705, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629772 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although at first glance it may seem that relations between the opposition and the government parties are tense and hostile, regional elections often create their own rules in individual regions. Therefore, despite the difficult relations between a number of political groups, a number of coalitions were formed in 2020 containing the victorious ANO movement (specifically in the Ústí nad Labem, Zlín, Plzeň and Moravian-Silesian regions). This year, the ANO movement has the greatest electoral [potential](https://fs2-ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/file/cms/ct24/attachments/REP_CT_Krajske_volby_2024_FIN.pdf) in all regions, so cooperation with it may sometimes be inevitable.\n\n The great added value of the question is the prediction of dynamics in Czech politics - a higher degree/ability of cooperation between selected government parties and the ANO movement may be an indication for the parliamentary elections that await the Czech Republic next fall." }, { "id": 27935, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-180-for-august-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.399948Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.339988Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27935, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.399948Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\n\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\n\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 27935, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719272.751788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.441 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719272.751788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.441 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.5230666208567267 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3643458643011109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 1.7691275980456236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4576057282108209, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46540015698840226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719272.785766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719272.785766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5620546487984193, 0.4379453512015807 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. 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In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\n\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\n\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 27934, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719184.442982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17149999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719184.442982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17149999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.47187332634421103 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1813837834937049, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4481577676642041, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2362407930206953, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.7821211939703921, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.95430762757856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719184.487036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719184.487036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5704205808212378, 0.4295794191787622 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 27933, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-160-and-less-than-or-equal-to-170-for-august-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.093450Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.925456Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27933, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.093450Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\n\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\n\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 27933, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719321.349114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.336 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719321.349114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.336 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6639999999999999, 0.336 ], "means": [ 0.39041868641114286 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.11123030328809189, 0.06414156534256711, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1737254614527062, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6374633535511081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48471239664352817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0848805540858923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6667011765031194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 40.92551466848375, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 40.92551466848375 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719321.379339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719321.379339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7671585657730863, 0.23284143422691375 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 27932, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-less-than-or-equal-to-160-for-august-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:40.754629Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.063273Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27932, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:40.754629Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\n\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\n\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 27932, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719367.403586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719367.403586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3630123503208776 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09578648840751575, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.34716891740149997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4219411936581734, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7692032911042765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0699883855167314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 1.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719367.435492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719367.435492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7845182157080627, 0.21548178429193734 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 27920, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-ethiopia-and-somalia-announce-an-agreement-settling-their-dispute-over-the-somaliland-port-deal", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T01:11:00.973468Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.960613Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27920, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T01:11:00.973468Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A third round of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia [is scheduled](https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/41513/) to begin in Ankara, Turkey on September 17, 2024. The second round [ended](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/second-round-somalia-ethiopia-talks-turkey-ends-with-no-deal-progress-made-2024-08-13/) on August 20, 2024 without an agreement. \n\nLandlocked Ethiopia is seeking access to the sea, and it signed an [agreement](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/01/05/the-world-shames-ethiopia-over-recognizing-somaliland/) with Somaliland in which Somaliland offered Ethiopia a 20-year lease on the port of Berbera in exchange for Ethiopia's eventual recognition of Somaliland: \n\n<img src=\"https://moderndiplomacy.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ethiopia-somaliland.jpg\" />\n\nSomaliland is an unrecognized country, and Ethiopia's recognition would be the first time a UN member state has recognized it, which would be a big step toward it normalizing its status in the international community. For its part, Somalia considers Somaliland to be part of its sovereign territory and the government in Hargeisa not entitled to sign the deal. The agreement has [angered](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/6/why-is-somalia-angry-about-neighbouring-ethiopias-new-port-deal) Mogadishu, which views it as an attack on its sovereignty, leading to sharply increased tensions.\n\nAccording to [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/somalia-ethiopia-turkey-port-somaliland/) (FP) ([archived link](https://archive.ph/SwsUP)):\n\n>Turkey, which has trade and defense ties with both nations and is vying for increased influence in the Horn of Africa, was reportedly asked to intervene by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. In a call with the Turkish president, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said his country was ready to “engage in economic and development cooperation with Ethiopia” but insisted that “such partnerships must always respect Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, and adhere to international law and norms.”\n\n>Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan separately met his counterparts, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi from Somalia and Taye Atske Selassie from Ethiopia, on Aug. 13 in Turkey’s capital, Ankara. Fidan told a news conference that there was now “convergence on some major principles.”\n\nSee also: \n\n- [Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21138/somaliland-recognition-by-ethiopia-in-2024/)\n\n- [Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21137/ethiopia-somalia-somaliland-casualties/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the governments of Ethiopia and Somalia publicly announce an agreement (acknowledged by both sides) settling their dispute over the [Ethiopia–Somaliland memorandum of understanding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ethiopia%E2%80%93Somaliland_memorandum_of_understanding), according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), before October 1, 2024. \n\nIf this event does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "To be clear, the agreement itself need not be entirely public, merely the announcement of its existence and the fact that it settles the Somalian objection to the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement. The terms offered by Addis Ababa are also not relevant to the question, as long as Somalia is no longer in opposition to the situation.", "post_id": 27920, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719296.210699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719296.210699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.25849237240520884 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28348981325350703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3852597643997231, 0.5414109223414629, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 1.681301693006372, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.4531953338080791, 0.9390562266019833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 60.40713236688608, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.40713236688608 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719296.243649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719296.243649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.916854960980164, 0.08314503901983601 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A third round of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia [is scheduled](https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/41513/) to begin in Ankara, Turkey on September 17, 2024. The second round [ended](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/second-round-somalia-ethiopia-talks-turkey-ends-with-no-deal-progress-made-2024-08-13/) on August 20, 2024 without an agreement. \n\nLandlocked Ethiopia is seeking access to the sea, and it signed an [agreement](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/01/05/the-world-shames-ethiopia-over-recognizing-somaliland/) with Somaliland in which Somaliland offered Ethiopia a 20-year lease on the port of Berbera in exchange for Ethiopia's eventual recognition of Somaliland: \n\n<img src=\"https://moderndiplomacy.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ethiopia-somaliland.jpg\" />\n\nSomaliland is an unrecognized country, and Ethiopia's recognition would be the first time a UN member state has recognized it, which would be a big step toward it normalizing its status in the international community. For its part, Somalia considers Somaliland to be part of its sovereign territory and the government in Hargeisa not entitled to sign the deal. The agreement has [angered](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/6/why-is-somalia-angry-about-neighbouring-ethiopias-new-port-deal) Mogadishu, which views it as an attack on its sovereignty, leading to sharply increased tensions.\n\nAccording to [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/somalia-ethiopia-turkey-port-somaliland/) (FP) ([archived link](https://archive.ph/SwsUP)):\n\n>Turkey, which has trade and defense ties with both nations and is vying for increased influence in the Horn of Africa, was reportedly asked to intervene by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. In a call with the Turkish president, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said his country was ready to “engage in economic and development cooperation with Ethiopia” but insisted that “such partnerships must always respect Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, and adhere to international law and norms.”\n\n>Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan separately met his counterparts, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi from Somalia and Taye Atske Selassie from Ethiopia, on Aug. 13 in Turkey’s capital, Ankara. Fidan told a news conference that there was now “convergence on some major principles.”\n\nSee also: \n\n- [Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21138/somaliland-recognition-by-ethiopia-in-2024/)\n\n- [Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21137/ethiopia-somalia-somaliland-casualties/)" }, { "id": 27919, "title": "Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-edmundo-gonzalez-be-deprived-of-liberty-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T01:11:00.853850Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.747656Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27919, "title": "Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T01:11:00.853850Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Economist reports](https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief) that\n\n> A court in Venezuela issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo González. Mr González claims, legitimately, that he defeated President Nicolás Maduro in the presidential election in July. Since stealing the election, Mr Maduro has cracked down on dissent. Mr González, who is in hiding, has been charged with “usurpation”, conspiracy and sabotage.\n\n[According to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-attorney-general-requests-arrest-warrant-opposition-leader-gonzalez-2024-09-02/):\n\n>Lawyers consulted by Reuters said that Venezuelan law does not allow those over 70 to serve sentences in jails, instead requiring house arrest. Gonzalez, who turned 75 last week, is married and has two daughters; one lives in Caracas and the other lives in Madrid.\n>\n>The U.S. has drafted a list of about 60 Venezuelan government officials and family members who could be sanctioned in the first punitive measures following the election, two people close to the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>The warrant request came hours after the Biden administration said an aircraft used by Maduro had been confiscated in the Dominican Republic after determining that its purchase violated U.S. sanctions, a move the Venezuelan government slammed as an act of \"piracy.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Edmundo González is reported by credible sources to be deprived of liberty (detained, arrested, kidnapped, etc.) in any way, by any entity at any time before October 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "If Edmundo González is reported to die, this question will be **annulled**. Similarly, staying in hiding does not for the sake of this question count as a deprivation of liberty. The intent of the question is to capture whether anyone will be willing and able to enforce the court order.\n\nGonzález does not need to remain detained by October 1, as long as it has happened at some point before then. Thus, if he is let go, escapes, or dies during detainment this question still resolves **Yes**.", "post_id": 27919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545744.53146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.781 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545744.53146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.781 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.645428652936714 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24233740095005632, 0.0, 0.0, 1.247914396722579, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28840001335625076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 1.9764959568421976, 0.11919235601565477, 0.5786709999416986, 0.01831563888873418, 0.5848781132312584, 0.24542508446505756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.44760345783570343, 0.5928733813562592, 0.07919054371229513, 0.0, 1.3018232396927305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038905714767909653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545744.571123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545744.571123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4522956190149441, 0.5477043809850559 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Economist reports](https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief) that\n\n> A court in Venezuela issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo González. Mr González claims, legitimately, that he defeated President Nicolás Maduro in the presidential election in July. Since stealing the election, Mr Maduro has cracked down on dissent. Mr González, who is in hiding, has been charged with “usurpation”, conspiracy and sabotage.\n\n[According to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-attorney-general-requests-arrest-warrant-opposition-leader-gonzalez-2024-09-02/):\n\n>Lawyers consulted by Reuters said that Venezuelan law does not allow those over 70 to serve sentences in jails, instead requiring house arrest. Gonzalez, who turned 75 last week, is married and has two daughters; one lives in Caracas and the other lives in Madrid.\n>\n>The U.S. has drafted a list of about 60 Venezuelan government officials and family members who could be sanctioned in the first punitive measures following the election, two people close to the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>The warrant request came hours after the Biden administration said an aircraft used by Maduro had been confiscated in the Dominican Republic after determining that its purchase violated U.S. sanctions, a move the Venezuelan government slammed as an act of \"piracy.\"" }, { "id": 27918, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starliner-calypso-undock-from-iss-before-september-16", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T01:11:00.664054Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": 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Economist](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/08/22/nasa-insists-that-two-astronauts-are-not-stranded-in-space):\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/):\n\n> Instead, the agency has asked SpaceX to use its Crew Dragon spacecraft to fly astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams back to Earth. \n>\n> [...] no earlier than September 24, a Crew Dragon spacecraft will launch with two astronauts to the space station with two empty seats. Wilmore and Williams will join these two Crew-9 astronauts for their previously scheduled six-month increment on the space station. All four will then return to Earth on the Crew Dragon vehicle. \n\nThis leaves the Starliner capsule hanging onto a space station with no purpose. \n\n> Therefore, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft will undock from the station early next month—the tentative date, according to a source, is September 6—and attempt to make an autonomous return to Earth and land in a desert in the southwestern United States.\n\nBoeing wants the Starliner back to see if they can learn more about what went wrong, but it's not entirely clear whether its software is capable of an autonomous precision deorbit.\n\nSince NASA are aiming for an \"early September\" undocking, this question asks whether it will happen in the first half of September.", "resolution_criteria": "If credible sources report that Starliner has undocked from the ISS before September 16, 2024, this question resolves as **Yes** Otherwise it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545751.043975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.766 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545751.043975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.766 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8326050582145913 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2575883073886892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07919054371229513, 0.5905170724966149, 0.5848781132312584, 0.014010486522538886, 0.17249978086131545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4061712190803831, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 2.7911012415303524, 0.0, 0.12938808434523666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.150083388614279, 0.4361039778027191, 0.0, 1.1571382468034819, 0.041937583413620604, 0.9378202529856796, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.13533528323661267, 0.6283213147936725 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545751.09003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545751.09003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.18641718075842395, 0.813582819241576 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, [according to The Economist](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/08/22/nasa-insists-that-two-astronauts-are-not-stranded-in-space):\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/):\n\n> Instead, the agency has asked SpaceX to use its Crew Dragon spacecraft to fly astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams back to Earth. \n>\n> [...] no earlier than September 24, a Crew Dragon spacecraft will launch with two astronauts to the space station with two empty seats. Wilmore and Williams will join these two Crew-9 astronauts for their previously scheduled six-month increment on the space station. All four will then return to Earth on the Crew Dragon vehicle. \n\nThis leaves the Starliner capsule hanging onto a space station with no purpose. \n\n> Therefore, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft will undock from the station early next month—the tentative date, according to a source, is September 6—and attempt to make an autonomous return to Earth and land in a desert in the southwestern United States.\n\nBoeing wants the Starliner back to see if they can learn more about what went wrong, but it's not entirely clear whether its software is capable of an autonomous precision deorbit.\n\nSince NASA are aiming for an \"early September\" undocking, this question asks whether it will happen in the first half of September." }, { "id": 27914, "title": "Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bear-win-the-2024-primetime-emmy-award-for-outstanding-comedy-series", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.207444Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.630999Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27914, "title": "Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?", "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.207444Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T12:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Bear is on FX. Other nominees are: Abbott Elementary (ABC), Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO), Hacks (Max), Only Murders in the Building (Hulu), Palm Royale (Apple TV+), Reservation Dogs (FX), and What We Do in the Shadows (FX).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the TV series The Bear wins the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [76th Primetime Emmy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/76th_Primetime_Emmy_Awards) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards show is scheduled for September 15, 2024.", "post_id": 27914, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545757.841108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545757.841108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6266474764049801 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5616274032354371, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18177471655796587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24233740095005632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32313367197518433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.6761034791273415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06833212923320346, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.5050313380892366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6905118496089352, 0.03493560780589553, 0.9195046140969454, 0.1983828997279499, 0.0, 0.7691257071645705, 0.0, 0.7197305172973604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02074843352162435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545757.885621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545757.885621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5432376235050302, 0.4567623764949697 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Bear is on FX. Other nominees are: Abbott Elementary (ABC), Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO), Hacks (Max), Only Murders in the Building (Hulu), Palm Royale (Apple TV+), Reservation Dogs (FX), and What We Do in the Shadows (FX)." }, { "id": 27913, "title": "Will \"Rockstar\" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-rockstar-by-lisa-win-the-award-for-best-k-pop-at-the-2024-mtv-vmas", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.099335Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.405164Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27913, "title": "Will \"Rockstar\" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?", "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.099335Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Notable other nominees are \"Seven\" by Jungkook featuring Latto and \"Lalalala\" by Stray Kids.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if \"Rockstar\" by Lisa wins the Best K-Pop award at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MTV Video Music Awards\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_MTV_Video_Music_Awards) or other credible sources reporting on this awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for September 10, 2024.", "post_id": 27913, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545800.318096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.445 ], "centers": [ 0.6199999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545800.318096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.445 ], "centers": [ 0.6199999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3800000000000001, 0.6199999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.5558925050893159 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06146157962559017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7068437030077622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.10861823238144103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6284870935022109, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5466326631390745, 0.3551836243544548, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.4875518845581138, 1.4861714093100487, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.6221235161564821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0666312089559677, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215023, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215023 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545800.356522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545800.356522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5114069417144382, 0.48859305828556177 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Notable other nominees are \"Seven\" by Jungkook featuring Latto and \"Lalalala\" by Stray Kids." } ] }
