Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2120
{ "count": 6333, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2140", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2100", "results": [ { "id": 29884, "title": "Before January 1, 2025, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-january-1-2025-will-anthropic-announce-on-the-news-section-of-its-website-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.158899Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.382340Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29726, "title": "Before January 1, 2025, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.158899Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T03:39:46.944190Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In its most recent funding round, Anthropic was valued at $18 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Anthropic, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before January 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://www.anthropic.com/news If there is no such announcement before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of Anthropic's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://www.anthropic.com/news) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on January 1, 2024, this question resolves as No. \n\nAnthropic's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.", "post_id": 29884, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731420966.335317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.10800000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.175 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731420966.335317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.10800000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1382983363475782 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1391344850342058, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.3004396974927213, 0.0, 0.9226740488176148, 1.3254055072366286, 1.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1501685895163756, 0.6896218051583209, 0.7964484483572234, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 1.5513043146505727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.37301684020518, "peer_score": 12.760068244589776, "coverage": 0.9967210546632608, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9967210546632608, "spot_peer_score": 8.067658844752405, "spot_baseline_score": 81.55754288625727, "baseline_archived_score": 80.37301684020518, "peer_archived_score": 12.760068244589776, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.067658844752405, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 81.55754288625727 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In its most recent funding round, Anthropic was valued at $18 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet. " }, { "id": 29883, "title": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through 2024, according to the specified criteria?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-world-remain-normal-through-2024-according-to-the-specified-criteria", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.153401Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.776776Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29725, "title": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through 2024, according to the specified criteria?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.153401Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T03:41:14.654781Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before January 1, 2025:\n\n- The **development of artificial general intelligence**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2025.\n- A **10% reduction in the human population**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2025.\n- Global **GDP increases by 30% or more in one year**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2025.\n- The **discovery of alien technosignatures**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2025.\n- A **worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs** becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2025.\n - **World War III**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2025.\n- A **nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** (meaning this is no longer a \"normal\" world) if one or more of the above Metaculus questions has positively resolved before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29883, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731420974.421543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9387920846689471 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731420974.421543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9387920846689471 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06120791533105285, 0.9387920846689471 ], "means": [ 0.816210815482297 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.39894260152492483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.9134389029481002, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 1.2709450889647806, 0.6896218051583209, 1.9549571529640235, 0.8331016997804591, 0.1836394386094319, 0.8655805159013822, 0.10060271610369056 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.18919679842696, "peer_score": 6.8965184566287245, "coverage": 0.996406230278037, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.996406230278037, "spot_peer_score": 10.832808272847284, "spot_baseline_score": 90.88775830868465, "baseline_archived_score": 92.18919679842696, "peer_archived_score": 6.8965184566287245, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.832808272847284, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 90.88775830868465 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050." }, { "id": 29882, "title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before January 1, 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.143804Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.362454Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29724, "title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before January 1, 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:35.143804Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T00:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:13:57.497561Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \n\nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity.", "resolution_criteria": "This question shall resolve positively if by January 1, 2025, credible media reports state that an individual [laboratory mouse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laboratory_mouse) of species *Mus musculus* has lived for at least 2,500 days.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29882, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731420983.410812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.023333333333333334 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731420983.410812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.023333333333333334 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01896485624451826 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1265062481845773, 5.887069089311047, 0.6110245847907283, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 1.4462274618854951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.14171362594664, "peer_score": 1.3598957981223794, "coverage": 0.995808972928811, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.995808972928811, "spot_peer_score": 1.1751147648228002, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "baseline_archived_score": 98.14171362594664, "peer_archived_score": 1.3598957981223794, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.1751147648228002, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \n\nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity." }, { "id": 29881, "title": "Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before January 1, 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-large-scale-armed-conflict-in-russia-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.834509Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.040769Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T13:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29723, "title": "Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before January 1, 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.834509Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T13:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:16:41.797355Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the [1905 Russian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution).\n\nThe possible defeat of Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War, combined with the severe economic crisis, may trigger a comparable conflict. For example, a violent coup d'état, a civil war, a revolution, an armed secession movement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2025, there is a large-scale armed conflict in Russia, according to credible media reports. For this question, a “a large-scale armed conflict” is a conflict which meets these criteria:\n\n* results in at least 1,000 deaths in Russia\n* has at least 100 participants directly involved in the killings,\n* with the majority of the participants on both sides being Russian citizens.\n\nSome examples of such events from the Russian history include the Russian Revolution, the [Russian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Civil_War), the [First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War) and [Second Chechen Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War). We ignore such events if they happen mostly in Crimea or any other territory occupied by Russia since 2014.", "fine_print": "In case there are several smaller deadly events (e.g. a series of terrorist attacks), and it's unclear if they should be counted together as one conflict, then we use the following additional criterion:\n\nthere should be a page on Wikipedia about the conflict.", "post_id": 29881, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731420995.872823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.047 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.167 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731420995.872823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.047 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.167 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12010137924398105 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.05892591724387544, 0.861389315845429, 1.7503575589309248, 1.096611035686293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3162976971910538, 0.0, 1.0839758874887768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.4058977563636797, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.153865828537011, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 88.2002864970462, "peer_score": 6.506120996680344, "coverage": 0.9871432893392112, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9871432893392112, "spot_peer_score": 2.9862503260811404, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 88.2002864970462, "peer_archived_score": 6.506120996680344, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.9862503260811404, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the [1905 Russian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution).\n\nThe possible defeat of Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War, combined with the severe economic crisis, may trigger a comparable conflict. For example, a violent coup d'état, a civil war, a revolution, an armed secession movement." }, { "id": 29880, "title": "Will George Soros be ranked in the top 400 richest people in the world on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-george-soros-be-ranked-in-the-top-400-richest-people-in-the-world-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.827380Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.490542Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29722, "title": "Will George Soros be ranked in the top 400 richest people in the world on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.827380Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T00:10:52.233521Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of October 8, 2024, George Soros was ranked 424th on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) George Soros is ranked 400th or better on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). 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Despite the Independence Party being the largest party in the coalition, the new prime minister was [Katrín Jakobsdóttir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katr%C3%ADn_Jakobsd%C3%B3ttir), the chairperson of the Left-Green Movement.\r\n\r\nIn [2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Icelandic_parliamentary_election), the three-party coalition maintained its majority and remained governmend under the lead of Katrín Jakobsdóttir. However, Jakobsdóttir resigned in April 2024 to contest the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Icelandic_presidential_election), which she lost. She was succeeded as prime minister by [Bjarni Benediktsson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bjarni_Benediktsson_(born_1970)), the leader of the Independence Party, who had previously been the prime minister in 2017 and who was the Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of the current government.\r\n\r\nOn 13 October, Benediktsson [announced](https://apnews.com/article/iceland-snap-election-coalition-government-9d170f37de3228506de93444668c416a) that the government had collapsed due to disputes over foreign policy, asylum seekers, and energy, prompting him to call for new elections and ask President Halla Tómasdóttir the next day to dissolve the Althingi and set the elections for 30 November.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the new prime minister belongs to the Social Democratic Alliance at the time of receiving the mandate to form a government by the President.\r\n\r\nIf, for any reason, no one has received the mandate before 1 January 2025 (including that the election is postponed or the coalition talks are ongoing), this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29879, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731424962.751468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.583 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731424962.751468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.583 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.38669957919147296 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.4249377485786018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6596525682659685, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.110481448514172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_score": -46.00799642335275, "peer_score": -4.659715410210564, "coverage": 0.9871361790845794, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9871361790845794, "spot_peer_score": 0.16183798445019162, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -46.00799642335275, "peer_archived_score": -4.659715410210564, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.16183798445019162 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2017 parliamentary elections in Iceland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Icelandic_parliamentary_election) resulted in an unusual governing coalition of the left-wing [Left-Green Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left-Green_Movement), the centre [Progressive Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_(Iceland)), and the centre-right [Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Party_(Iceland)). Despite the Independence Party being the largest party in the coalition, the new prime minister was [Katrín Jakobsdóttir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katr%C3%ADn_Jakobsd%C3%B3ttir), the chairperson of the Left-Green Movement.\r\n\r\nIn [2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Icelandic_parliamentary_election), the three-party coalition maintained its majority and remained governmend under the lead of Katrín Jakobsdóttir. However, Jakobsdóttir resigned in April 2024 to contest the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Icelandic_presidential_election), which she lost. She was succeeded as prime minister by [Bjarni Benediktsson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bjarni_Benediktsson_(born_1970)), the leader of the Independence Party, who had previously been the prime minister in 2017 and who was the Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of the current government.\r\n\r\nOn 13 October, Benediktsson [announced](https://apnews.com/article/iceland-snap-election-coalition-government-9d170f37de3228506de93444668c416a) that the government had collapsed due to disputes over foreign policy, asylum seekers, and energy, prompting him to call for new elections and ask President Halla Tómasdóttir the next day to dissolve the Althingi and set the elections for 30 November." }, { "id": 29878, "title": "Will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to the Left-Green Movement after the 2024 parliamentary elections?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-new-prime-minister-of-iceland-belong-to-the-left-green-movement-after-the-2024-parliamentary-elections", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.815730Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.023723Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T17:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29720, "title": "Will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to the Left-Green Movement after the 2024 parliamentary elections?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.815730Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T17:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T17:43:35.819887Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2017 parliamentary elections in Iceland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Icelandic_parliamentary_election) resulted in an unusual governing coalition of the left-wing [Left-Green Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left-Green_Movement), the centre [Progressive Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_(Iceland)), and the centre-right [Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Party_(Iceland)). Despite the Independence Party being the largest party in the coalition, the new prime minister was [Katrín Jakobsdóttir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katr%C3%ADn_Jakobsd%C3%B3ttir), the chairperson of the Left-Green Movement.\r\n\r\nIn [2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Icelandic_parliamentary_election), the three-party coalition maintained its majority and remained governmend under the lead of Katrín Jakobsdóttir. However, Jakobsdóttir resigned in April 2024 to contest the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Icelandic_presidential_election), which she lost. She was succeeded as prime minister by [Bjarni Benediktsson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bjarni_Benediktsson_(born_1970)), the leader of the Independence Party, who had previously been the prime minister in 2017 and who was the Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of the current government.\r\n\r\nOn 13 October, Benediktsson [announced](https://apnews.com/article/iceland-snap-election-coalition-government-9d170f37de3228506de93444668c416a) that the government had collapsed due to disputes over foreign policy, asylum seekers, and energy, prompting him to call for new elections and ask President Halla Tómasdóttir the next day to dissolve the Althingi and set the elections for 30 November.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the new prime minister belongs to the Left-Green Movement at the time of receiving the mandate to form a government by the President.\r\n\r\nIf, for any reason, no one has received the mandate before 1 January 2025 (including that the election is postponed or the coalition talks are ongoing), this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29878, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731421022.556452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.055999999999999994 ], "centers": [ 0.10099999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731421022.556452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.055999999999999994 ], "centers": [ 0.10099999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.899, 0.10099999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.13248091543833165 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4205445219860606, 1.188561150671289, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 1.1631162999193703, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2379398938990698, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 1.0, 0.20851081619995687, 1.5616141460749313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3447105879420038, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 84.63930208523604, "baseline_score": 84.39333900792434, "peer_score": 2.844061994284806, "coverage": 0.9871311441091477, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9871311441091477, "spot_peer_score": 2.7041606403940683, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.63930208523604, "baseline_archived_score": 84.39333900792434, "peer_archived_score": 2.844061994284806, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.7041606403940683 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2017 parliamentary elections in Iceland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Icelandic_parliamentary_election) resulted in an unusual governing coalition of the left-wing [Left-Green Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left-Green_Movement), the centre [Progressive Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_(Iceland)), and the centre-right [Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Party_(Iceland)). Despite the Independence Party being the largest party in the coalition, the new prime minister was [Katrín Jakobsdóttir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katr%C3%ADn_Jakobsd%C3%B3ttir), the chairperson of the Left-Green Movement.\r\n\r\nIn [2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Icelandic_parliamentary_election), the three-party coalition maintained its majority and remained governmend under the lead of Katrín Jakobsdóttir. However, Jakobsdóttir resigned in April 2024 to contest the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Icelandic_presidential_election), which she lost. She was succeeded as prime minister by [Bjarni Benediktsson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bjarni_Benediktsson_(born_1970)), the leader of the Independence Party, who had previously been the prime minister in 2017 and who was the Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of the current government.\r\n\r\nOn 13 October, Benediktsson [announced](https://apnews.com/article/iceland-snap-election-coalition-government-9d170f37de3228506de93444668c416a) that the government had collapsed due to disputes over foreign policy, asylum seekers, and energy, prompting him to call for new elections and ask President Halla Tómasdóttir the next day to dissolve the Althingi and set the elections for 30 November." }, { "id": 29877, "title": "Will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to the Progressive Party after the 2024 parliamentary elections?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-new-prime-minister-of-iceland-belong-to-the-progressive-party-after-the-2024-parliamentary-elections", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.808158Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.119474Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T17:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29719, "title": "Will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to the Progressive Party after the 2024 parliamentary elections?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.808158Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T17:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T17:42:51.203546Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2017 parliamentary elections in Iceland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Icelandic_parliamentary_election) resulted in an unusual governing coalition of the left-wing [Left-Green Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left-Green_Movement), the centre [Progressive Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_(Iceland)), and the centre-right [Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Party_(Iceland)). Despite the Independence Party being the largest party in the coalition, the new prime minister was [Katrín Jakobsdóttir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katr%C3%ADn_Jakobsd%C3%B3ttir), the chairperson of the Left-Green Movement.\r\n\r\nIn [2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Icelandic_parliamentary_election), the three-party coalition maintained its majority and remained governmend under the lead of Katrín Jakobsdóttir. However, Jakobsdóttir resigned in April 2024 to contest the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Icelandic_presidential_election), which she lost. She was succeeded as prime minister by [Bjarni Benediktsson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bjarni_Benediktsson_(born_1970)), the leader of the Independence Party, who had previously been the prime minister in 2017 and who was the Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of the current government.\r\n\r\nOn 13 October, Benediktsson [announced](https://apnews.com/article/iceland-snap-election-coalition-government-9d170f37de3228506de93444668c416a) that the government had collapsed due to disputes over foreign policy, asylum seekers, and energy, prompting him to call for new elections and ask President Halla Tómasdóttir the next day to dissolve the Althingi and set the elections for 30 November.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the new prime minister belongs to the Progressive Party at the time of receiving the mandate to form a government by the President.\r\n\r\nIf, for any reason, no one has received the mandate before 1 January 2025 (including that the election is postponed or the coalition talks are ongoing), this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29877, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731421029.94993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17800000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32770984152002886 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731421029.94993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17800000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32770984152002886 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.23270707811334532 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.625569853156547, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.25790909328149764, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.3019260207546145, 0.250282548042939, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2934245915071365, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.482039165292421, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_score": 72.99935510069162, "peer_score": 5.760937462562931, "coverage": 0.9860993105780195, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9860993105780195, "spot_peer_score": -3.8867672803767928, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 72.99935510069162, "peer_archived_score": 5.760937462562931, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.8867672803767928 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2017 parliamentary elections in Iceland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Icelandic_parliamentary_election) resulted in an unusual governing coalition of the left-wing [Left-Green Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left-Green_Movement), the centre [Progressive Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_(Iceland)), and the centre-right [Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Party_(Iceland)). Despite the Independence Party being the largest party in the coalition, the new prime minister was [Katrín Jakobsdóttir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katr%C3%ADn_Jakobsd%C3%B3ttir), the chairperson of the Left-Green Movement.\r\n\r\nIn [2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Icelandic_parliamentary_election), the three-party coalition maintained its majority and remained governmend under the lead of Katrín Jakobsdóttir. However, Jakobsdóttir resigned in April 2024 to contest the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Icelandic_presidential_election), which she lost. She was succeeded as prime minister by [Bjarni Benediktsson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bjarni_Benediktsson_(born_1970)), the leader of the Independence Party, who had previously been the prime minister in 2017 and who was the Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of the current government.\r\n\r\nOn 13 October, Benediktsson [announced](https://apnews.com/article/iceland-snap-election-coalition-government-9d170f37de3228506de93444668c416a) that the government had collapsed due to disputes over foreign policy, asylum seekers, and energy, prompting him to call for new elections and ask President Halla Tómasdóttir the next day to dissolve the Althingi and set the elections for 30 November." }, { "id": 29876, "title": "Will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to the Independence Party after the 2024 parliamentary elections?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-new-prime-minister-of-iceland-belong-to-the-independence-party-after-the-2024-parliamentary-elections", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.476358Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.665596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T17:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29718, "title": "Will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to the Independence Party after the 2024 parliamentary elections?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.476358Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T17:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-03T17:41:57.929905Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2017 parliamentary elections in Iceland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Icelandic_parliamentary_election) resulted in an unusual governing coalition of the left-wing [Left-Green Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left-Green_Movement), the centre [Progressive Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_(Iceland)), and the centre-right [Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Party_(Iceland)). Despite the Independence Party being the largest party in the coalition, the new prime minister was [Katrín Jakobsdóttir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katr%C3%ADn_Jakobsd%C3%B3ttir), the chairperson of the Left-Green Movement.\r\n\r\nIn [2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Icelandic_parliamentary_election), the three-party coalition maintained its majority and remained governmend under the lead of Katrín Jakobsdóttir. However, Jakobsdóttir resigned in April 2024 to contest the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Icelandic_presidential_election), which she lost. She was succeeded as prime minister by [Bjarni Benediktsson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bjarni_Benediktsson_(born_1970)), the leader of the Independence Party, who had previously been the prime minister in 2017 and who was the Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of the current government.\r\n\r\nOn 13 October, Benediktsson [announced](https://apnews.com/article/iceland-snap-election-coalition-government-9d170f37de3228506de93444668c416a) that the government had collapsed due to disputes over foreign policy, asylum seekers, and energy, prompting him to call for new elections and ask President Halla Tómasdóttir the next day to dissolve the Althingi and set the elections for 30 November.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the new prime minister belongs to the Independence Party at the time of receiving the mandate to form a government by the President.\r\n\r\nIf, for any reason, no one has received the mandate before 1 January 2025 (including that the election is postponed or the coalition talks are ongoing), this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731421043.979121, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.298 ], "centers": [ 0.3986 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47757483301615683 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731421043.979121, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.298 ], "centers": [ 0.3986 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47757483301615683 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6013999999999999, 0.3986 ], "means": [ 0.37718055686099783 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.7312376381014487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.44763977604246574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.6149678299500161, 0.19461365146921333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 1.0428908471209768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.7511534702699268, 1.3220277514797998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 26.639677302455336, "baseline_score": 45.98928989856648, "peer_score": 5.566457404565444, "coverage": 0.985983051781853, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.985983051781853, "spot_peer_score": -6.146550381828793, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.639677302455336, "baseline_archived_score": 45.98928989856648, "peer_archived_score": 5.566457404565444, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.146550381828793 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2017 parliamentary elections in Iceland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Icelandic_parliamentary_election) resulted in an unusual governing coalition of the left-wing [Left-Green Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left-Green_Movement), the centre [Progressive Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_(Iceland)), and the centre-right [Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Party_(Iceland)). Despite the Independence Party being the largest party in the coalition, the new prime minister was [Katrín Jakobsdóttir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katr%C3%ADn_Jakobsd%C3%B3ttir), the chairperson of the Left-Green Movement.\r\n\r\nIn [2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Icelandic_parliamentary_election), the three-party coalition maintained its majority and remained governmend under the lead of Katrín Jakobsdóttir. However, Jakobsdóttir resigned in April 2024 to contest the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Icelandic_presidential_election), which she lost. She was succeeded as prime minister by [Bjarni Benediktsson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bjarni_Benediktsson_(born_1970)), the leader of the Independence Party, who had previously been the prime minister in 2017 and who was the Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of the current government.\r\n\r\nOn 13 October, Benediktsson [announced](https://apnews.com/article/iceland-snap-election-coalition-government-9d170f37de3228506de93444668c416a) that the government had collapsed due to disputes over foreign policy, asylum seekers, and energy, prompting him to call for new elections and ask President Halla Tómasdóttir the next day to dissolve the Althingi and set the elections for 30 November." }, { "id": 29875, "title": "Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-have-significantly-expanded-its-controlled-territory-in-ukraine-on-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.468122Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:10.617985Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29717, "title": "Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.468122Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T23:54:23.218712Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In 2023 Ukraine [commenced a counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive), though as of October 30, 2023, [Ukraine's gains have been modest](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-has-been-slow-but-western-support-remains-strong--even-with-new-war-in-middle-east-215707295.html), and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1gg5PBOaPGAuOjX5kCafOgNIBMWW-ZdI&ehbc=2E312F\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2025, Russia has de facto control of specific key locations which it currently controls as of October 30, 2023, and also controls two or more additional specified locations that it currently does not. Resolution will be determined according to maps produced by the [Institute for the Study of War](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap) (ISW). The relevant locations are listed below, and also shown in a map embedded in the background section.\n\nRussia must have control of **at least two** of the following locations:\n\n* Mikolaiv: Admiralska St, 20, Mykolaiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukraine, 54000\n* Zaporizhzhia: Sobornyi Ave, 206, Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhia Oblast\n* Kharkiv: Konstytutsii Square, 7, Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, 61000\n* Odesa: Dums'ka Square, 1, Odesa, Odesa Oblast, Ukraine, 65000\n* Lozova: Lozova City Council, Vulytsya Yaroslava Mudroho, Lozova, Kharkivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 64600\n* Sumy: Sumy City Council, Nezalezhnosti Square, 2, Sumy, Sums'ka oblast, Ukraine, 40000\n* Chernihiv: Chernihiv City Council, Mahistrats'ka St, 7, Chernihiv, Chernihivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 14000\n\nRussia must also have control of **all** of the following locations:\n\n* Simferopol - Ulitsa Karla Marksa, 18, Simferopol\n* Nova Kakhovka - Горсовет, Prospekt Dniprovsʹkyy, 23, Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, Ukraine, 74900\n* Svatove - Avtoshlyakh R 66, Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine, 92600\n* Donetsk - Artema St, 98, Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 83000\n* Tokmak - Central St, 45, Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 71700", "fine_print": "* If the building itself no longer exists, resolution will be based on the location of the building. If the ISW map is no longer available on the resolution date, then an equivalent resource may be selected by Metaculus.", "post_id": 29875, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731421052.652924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.177 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3961 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731421052.652924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.177 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3961 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.823, 0.177 ], "means": [ 0.263194184124918 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.1594851497887708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7677916666635247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.160831023763914, 0.3213229539545445, 1.61350740385026, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.37458724025821, "peer_score": 6.654606083395588, "coverage": 0.9859792853698686, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9859792853698686, "spot_peer_score": 9.01428806173431, "spot_baseline_score": 71.89643357595385, "baseline_archived_score": 73.37458724025821, "peer_archived_score": 6.654606083395588, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.01428806173431, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.89643357595385 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In 2023 Ukraine [commenced a counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive), though as of October 30, 2023, [Ukraine's gains have been modest](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-has-been-slow-but-western-support-remains-strong--even-with-new-war-in-middle-east-215707295.html), and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1gg5PBOaPGAuOjX5kCafOgNIBMWW-ZdI&ehbc=2E312F\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 29874, "title": "Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on November 29, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-active-us-oil-drilling-rigs-be-less-than-585-on-november-29-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.460213Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.088779Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T01:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29716, "title": "Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on November 29, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-11T15:11:34.460213Z", "open_time": "2024-11-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T01:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-30T01:11:02.009037Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-12T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active drilling rigs is less than 585 on November 29, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count, which can be accessed at [this](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_rotary_rigs) Ycharts link.", "fine_print": "The total number of active drilling rigs includes the total of those classified as oil, gas, and miscellaneous. The link will be accessed by Metaculus Admins on or around November 29, 2024. In case of its inaccessibility, the secondary resolution source will be from Baker Hughes itself at [this link](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count). 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Act (ACA), was signed into law in 2010 aiming to expand access to health insurance through mechanisms like Medicaid expansion and the creation of health insurance marketplaces, alongside regulations to ensure comprehensive coverage for pre-existing conditions. Republicans have criticized the ACA for increasing government control over healthcare, leading to higher premiums and less choice.\n\nDuring his presidency, Donald Trump sought to repeal and replace the ACA, describing it as a \"disaster\" and advocating for a system that he claimed would offer better and less expensive healthcare. However, despite multiple attempts, a full repeal did not pass Congress. Instead, actions like the [elimination of subsidies](https://www.npr.org/2017/10/14/557832684/trump-ends-health-care-subsidies-who-will-be-affected), [elimination of the individual mandate penalty](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/10/14/768731628/trump-is-trying-hard-to-thwart-obamacare-hows-that-going) through tax reform and policies to expand non-ACA compliant health plans were implemented. Prominent Republicans continue to express intentions to overhaul or replace the ACA with market-oriented solutions, although specific detailed plans from [Donald Trump](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111471975032811076) or other leading figures like House Speaker [Mike Johnson](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/30/mike-johnson-trump-aca-obamacare/) have been notably vague or centered around broad reforms.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a federal bill is passed and signed into law that fully repeals the Affordable Care Act.", "fine_print": "- The effective date of the repeal will not affect the resolution of this question.\n- Partial repeals targeting specific provisions, will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 29846, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762524424.491571, "end_time": 1764180349.693, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762524424.491571, "end_time": 1764180349.693, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.18342853563063932 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.24765523032874223, 0.45523453520163804, 0.7342710701684558, 1.3329751504091318, 0.13444868060126633, 1.7950424194743242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3133827541420398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Obamacare](https://ballotpedia.org/Obamacare_overview), officially the Affordable Care Act (ACA), was signed into law in 2010 aiming to expand access to health insurance through mechanisms like Medicaid expansion and the creation of health insurance marketplaces, alongside regulations to ensure comprehensive coverage for pre-existing conditions. Republicans have criticized the ACA for increasing government control over healthcare, leading to higher premiums and less choice.\n\nDuring his presidency, Donald Trump sought to repeal and replace the ACA, describing it as a \"disaster\" and advocating for a system that he claimed would offer better and less expensive healthcare. However, despite multiple attempts, a full repeal did not pass Congress. Instead, actions like the [elimination of subsidies](https://www.npr.org/2017/10/14/557832684/trump-ends-health-care-subsidies-who-will-be-affected), [elimination of the individual mandate penalty](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/10/14/768731628/trump-is-trying-hard-to-thwart-obamacare-hows-that-going) through tax reform and policies to expand non-ACA compliant health plans were implemented. Prominent Republicans continue to express intentions to overhaul or replace the ACA with market-oriented solutions, although specific detailed plans from [Donald Trump](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111471975032811076) or other leading figures like House Speaker [Mike Johnson](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/30/mike-johnson-trump-aca-obamacare/) have been notably vague or centered around broad reforms." }, { "id": 29845, "title": "Will the United States disband the Department of Education through an act of Congress before 2027?", "short_title": "Will the Department of Education be disbanded before 2027?", "url_title": "Will the Department of Education be disbanded before 2027?", "slug": "will-the-department-of-education-be-disbanded-before-2027", "author_id": 117648, "author_username": "hotnewpotatoes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-10T18:24:42.995453Z", "published_at": "2024-11-27T14:46:28.886942Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T06:24:04.321625Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-27T14:46:28.886940Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-11-30T14:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3574, "type": "question_series", "name": "2024 Electoral Consequences", "slug": "us-conditionals", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover_DGFfV9U.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-28T20:19:47Z", "close_date": "2028-12-31T21:19:47Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-28T20:19:47.580589Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T17:33:31.222610Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3574, "type": "question_series", "name": "2024 Electoral Consequences", "slug": "us-conditionals", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover_DGFfV9U.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-28T20:19:47Z", "close_date": "2028-12-31T21:19:47Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-28T20:19:47.580589Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T17:33:31.222610Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 29694, "title": "Will the United States disband the Department of Education through an act of Congress before 2027?", "created_at": "2024-11-10T18:24:42.995566Z", "open_time": "2024-11-30T14:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-03T14:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-12-03T14:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Department of Education was established in 1979 through the [Department of Education Organization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/senate-bill/210/text). Section 201 of that act reads:\n> There is established an executive department to be known as the Department of Education. The Department shall be administered, in accordance with the provisions of this Act, under the supervision and direction of a Secretary of Education. The Secretary of Education shall be appointed by the President, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate.\n\nDisbanding the Department is a stated priority of the incoming Republican administration. The 2024 [Republican platform](https://rncplatform.donaldjtrump.com/) states, under the heading \"Return Education to the States: \n> The United States spends more money per pupil on Education than any other Country in the World, and yet we are at the bottom of every educational list in terms of results. We are going to close the Department of Education in Washington, D.C. and send it back to the States, where it belongs, and let the States run our educational system as it should be run. (2024 GOP Platform, p. 13)\n\nSimilarly, [Project 2025](https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf) states in its *Mandate for Leadership* that \n> Federal education policy should be limited and, ultimately, the federal Department of Education should be eliminated.\" (Mandate for Leadership, p 319)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, an act of Congress that repeals section 201 of the Department of Education Organization Act is passed into law and signed by the president of the United States.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29845, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762323833.619507, "end_time": 1763381816.505, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762323833.619507, "end_time": 1763381816.505, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.048342294531159485 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.42550593662906744, 0.5173663694464321, 0.8940642470238571, 1.8841702665978781, 2.2570071022585383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Department of Education was established in 1979 through the [Department of Education Organization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/senate-bill/210/text). Section 201 of that act reads:\n> There is established an executive department to be known as the Department of Education. The Department shall be administered, in accordance with the provisions of this Act, under the supervision and direction of a Secretary of Education. The Secretary of Education shall be appointed by the President, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate.\n\nDisbanding the Department is a stated priority of the incoming Republican administration. The 2024 [Republican platform](https://rncplatform.donaldjtrump.com/) states, under the heading \"Return Education to the States: \n> The United States spends more money per pupil on Education than any other Country in the World, and yet we are at the bottom of every educational list in terms of results. We are going to close the Department of Education in Washington, D.C. and send it back to the States, where it belongs, and let the States run our educational system as it should be run. (2024 GOP Platform, p. 13)\n\nSimilarly, [Project 2025](https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf) states in its *Mandate for Leadership* that \n> Federal education policy should be limited and, ultimately, the federal Department of Education should be eliminated.\" (Mandate for Leadership, p 319)" }, { "id": 29843, "title": "Will Donald Trump successfully end all new U.S. offshore wind energy projects by executive order before April 21, 2025?", "short_title": "Trump offshore wind ban by 21 April 2025?", "url_title": "Trump offshore wind ban by 21 April 2025?", "slug": "trump-offshore-wind-ban-by-21-april-2025", "author_id": 156496, "author_username": "ScienceMon", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-10T13:53:43.462469Z", "published_at": "2024-11-11T16:01:21.190191Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.432151Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-11T16:01:21.190189Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T17:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-21T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-13T17:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:59:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3574, "type": "question_series", "name": "2024 Electoral Consequences", "slug": "us-conditionals", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover_DGFfV9U.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-28T20:19:47Z", "close_date": "2028-12-31T21:19:47Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-28T20:19:47.580589Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T17:33:31.222610Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3574, "type": "question_series", "name": "2024 Electoral Consequences", "slug": "us-conditionals", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover_DGFfV9U.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-28T20:19:47Z", "close_date": "2028-12-31T21:19:47Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-28T20:19:47.580589Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T17:33:31.222610Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 29693, "title": "Will Donald Trump successfully end all new U.S. offshore wind energy projects by executive order before April 21, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-10T13:53:43.462592Z", "open_time": "2024-11-12T15:59:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T15:59:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T15:59:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-13T17:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-13T18:00:22.647420Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-21T16:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T17:49:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During 2024 presidential campaign, President-elect Donald Trump pledged to end offshore wind energy projects on \"Day 1\" of his administration through executive order. Trump has specifically stated: \"We are going to make sure that that ends on Day 1. I'm going to write it out in an executive order. It's going to end on Day 1.\"\n\nCurrently, there is approximately 65 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity under development in the U.S., enough to power more than 26 million homes according to the American Clean Power Association. Several projects are already operational, including the Block Island Wind Farm in Rhode Island, the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind pilot project, and the South Fork Wind Farm near Long Island.\n\nExperts suggest that while Trump could take several actions to impede the industry, including appointing agency leaders hostile to offshore wind development and working with Congress to reduce tax credits, completely ending all projects may face legal and practical challenges.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump signs an executive order before April 21, 2025 that does at least one of the following:\n\n1. Revokes or suspends existing federal offshore wind leases that haven't begun construction\n2. Directs relevant federal agencies (such as BOEM) to cease processing new offshore wind permits and approvals\n3. Orders a freeze or moratorium on new offshore wind lease sales\n\nAND that executive order is not blocked by court order within 7 days from the moment it is signed.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if:\n\n1. Trump does not sign such an executive order before April 21, 2025, OR\n2. The executive order is signed but is blocked by court order within 7 days of its signing and that block lasts until 21 April, 2025.", "fine_print": "* This question does not consider the fate of already operational wind farms or those under construction.\n* If Trump does not take office, this question will be **Annulled**.\n* This question resolves based on the content and initial implementation of the executive order itself, not its long-term effectiveness or ultimate survival of legal challenges.\n* \"Immediately blocked\" means a court issues a temporary restraining order or preliminary injunction preventing the order from taking effect within 7 days of signing.", "post_id": 29843, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741512897.699656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741512897.699656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5862208492571767 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0529465299676522, 0.07218472244402722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012491892736397447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01895802933139185, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004173285167582051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5401454722547288, 0.0, 0.04031214257072945, 0.0, 0.16106653414689315, 0.038042580387954654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05771699504164168, 0.0, 0.7970339209874615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07173628386573537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.1333270524573957, 0.12440977309760763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4073899258014388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37827093313525617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2056003983324013, 0.7008594225333291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27389162834287195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8589704593731293, 0.8693280352332947, 0.19333358002911022, 0.7535956555594016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09905073698188505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2515406540753948, 0.38056261610345776, 0.4817346416537838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21134819307803016, 0.02358838295555427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17659841324481915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08040436677867299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4528342028088947 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During 2024 presidential campaign, President-elect Donald Trump pledged to end offshore wind energy projects on \"Day 1\" of his administration through executive order. Trump has specifically stated: \"We are going to make sure that that ends on Day 1. I'm going to write it out in an executive order. It's going to end on Day 1.\"\n\nCurrently, there is approximately 65 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity under development in the U.S., enough to power more than 26 million homes according to the American Clean Power Association. Several projects are already operational, including the Block Island Wind Farm in Rhode Island, the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind pilot project, and the South Fork Wind Farm near Long Island.\n\nExperts suggest that while Trump could take several actions to impede the industry, including appointing agency leaders hostile to offshore wind development and working with Congress to reduce tax credits, completely ending all projects may face legal and practical challenges." }, { "id": 29841, "title": "Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-usda-license-hpai-h5-vax-in-dairy-cows-by-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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cattle before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-10T00:29:12.986716Z", "open_time": "2024-11-14T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-16T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-19T17:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-19T17:38:32.684554Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T15:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T15:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), HPAI has hit dairy cattle hard, with 473 [herds testing positive](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm), as of November 8, 2024. Mostly mild in cows (with most cows [reportedly](https://hoards.com/article-34969-how-will-avian-influenza-impact-milk-supply.html) being asymptomatic and most of those that get sick recovering within 3 weeks), HPAI primary affects [older cows](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(24)00112-1/fulltext), leading to decreased milk production from an industry standpoint. While mortality in cows [is low](https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2024/05/10/usda-hhs-announce-new-actions-reduce-impact-and-spread-h5n1), from a public health standpoint there is potentially a risk of spillover of H5N1 Influenza from cattle to humans, which might under certain circumstances lead to an epidemic. According to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, testing from the CDC [has found](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/studies-find-little-no-immunity-h5n1-avian-flu-virus-americans) that the American population has little to no pre-existing immunity to the H5N1 virus that is circulating on farms.\n\nH5N1 has been [detected in milk](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7321e1.htm) as well as being [spread to farm workers](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotlights/protect-farm-workers-bird-flu.html). Therefore a potential useful line of defense in protecting human public health would be an H5 vaccine for dairy cows.\n\nIn May 2023, the US Department of Agriculture's Center for Veterinary Biologics (USDA-CVB) [began testing](https://www.avma.org/news/usda-starts-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-vaccine-trials) vaccines for HPAI. On August 28, 2024, it [expanded](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/program-update/cvb-notice-24-13-field-studies-nonviable-non-replicating-veterinary-vaccines) to authorize field trials. The advantage of field trials is that the studies are no longer required to be conducted in containment facilities. For further details of the field studies authorization including protocols please see [CVB Notice NO. 24-13 (pdf)](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-13.pdf)\n\nThe USDA-CVB is [accepting applications](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-11.pdf) for the licensure of vaccines for livestock, including dairy cattle under the following pathways: \n\n>Conditional Licensure – CVB will consider serological response in vaccinated target species as data to support a reasonable expectation of efficacy. Serological testing should focus on antibodies to the H5 clade 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin using an assay such as or similar to the hemagglutination inhibition assay. \n\n>Full Licensure – Currently CVB will only consider studies using vaccinationchallenge with H5 HPAI in the target species, along with all other licensure requirements, to obtain full licensure. Note the recent [Select Agent Exemption for H5 HPAI](https://www.selectagents.gov/sat/exemptions/avian-influenza.htm). Study protocols should be submitted to CVB for review.\n\nAs of 11 November 2024, one company that has begun field trials is veterinary pharmaceutical and biotechnology company Medgene Labs, which [is expecting](https://kbhbradio.com/south-dakota-company-begins-trials-on-h5n1-avian-flu-vaccine-for-dairy-cows/) to complete its H5 vaccine study in December 2024 and share its results with the USDA at that time.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the US Department of Agriculture's [Center for Veterinary Biologics](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/veterinary-biologics) (USDA-CVB) grants or issues a full or conditional license for a vaccine against H5 [Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza) (HPAI) to be administered to dairy cattle in the United States.\n\nIf this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Authorized field studies do not in themselves count as licensure, nor does early access use or experimental use. \n\nIf USDA-CVB approves the vaccine for a larger group that includes dairy cattle (such as for livestock), that will count. Any approval that does not include dairy cattle will not.\n\nPlease note that, as USDA-CVB says in [NOTICE NO. 24-11](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-11.pdf), \"U.S. licensure is distinct from authorization for U.S. use.\" For purposes of this question, conditional licensure or full licensure are sufficient to resolve this question as Yes. \n\nAny vaccine for H5 strains of HPAI will count, including but not limited to H5N1, and regardless of clade, including but not limited to clade 2.3.4.4b, as long as it is associated with the current HPAI outbreak.", "post_id": 29841, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751282452.154177, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751282452.154177, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.09786064847814789 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.780862953213598, 1.2313980708231458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.11399817092273035, 0.21526221595892353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046030501934941764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1410852267630558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -89.43076584483741, "peer_score": 18.067737003254777, "coverage": 0.9988474012220998, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9988474012220998, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": -89.43076584483741, "peer_archived_score": 18.067737003254777, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 213, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), HPAI has hit dairy cattle hard, with 473 [herds testing positive](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm), as of November 8, 2024. Mostly mild in cows (with most cows [reportedly](https://hoards.com/article-34969-how-will-avian-influenza-impact-milk-supply.html) being asymptomatic and most of those that get sick recovering within 3 weeks), HPAI primary affects [older cows](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(24)00112-1/fulltext), leading to decreased milk production from an industry standpoint. While mortality in cows [is low](https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2024/05/10/usda-hhs-announce-new-actions-reduce-impact-and-spread-h5n1), from a public health standpoint there is potentially a risk of spillover of H5N1 Influenza from cattle to humans, which might under certain circumstances lead to an epidemic. According to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, testing from the CDC [has found](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/studies-find-little-no-immunity-h5n1-avian-flu-virus-americans) that the American population has little to no pre-existing immunity to the H5N1 virus that is circulating on farms.\n\nH5N1 has been [detected in milk](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7321e1.htm) as well as being [spread to farm workers](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotlights/protect-farm-workers-bird-flu.html). Therefore a potential useful line of defense in protecting human public health would be an H5 vaccine for dairy cows.\n\nIn May 2023, the US Department of Agriculture's Center for Veterinary Biologics (USDA-CVB) [began testing](https://www.avma.org/news/usda-starts-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-vaccine-trials) vaccines for HPAI. On August 28, 2024, it [expanded](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/program-update/cvb-notice-24-13-field-studies-nonviable-non-replicating-veterinary-vaccines) to authorize field trials. The advantage of field trials is that the studies are no longer required to be conducted in containment facilities. For further details of the field studies authorization including protocols please see [CVB Notice NO. 24-13 (pdf)](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-13.pdf)\n\nThe USDA-CVB is [accepting applications](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-11.pdf) for the licensure of vaccines for livestock, including dairy cattle under the following pathways: \n\n>Conditional Licensure – CVB will consider serological response in vaccinated target species as data to support a reasonable expectation of efficacy. Serological testing should focus on antibodies to the H5 clade 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin using an assay such as or similar to the hemagglutination inhibition assay. \n\n>Full Licensure – Currently CVB will only consider studies using vaccinationchallenge with H5 HPAI in the target species, along with all other licensure requirements, to obtain full licensure. Note the recent [Select Agent Exemption for H5 HPAI](https://www.selectagents.gov/sat/exemptions/avian-influenza.htm). Study protocols should be submitted to CVB for review.\n\nAs of 11 November 2024, one company that has begun field trials is veterinary pharmaceutical and biotechnology company Medgene Labs, which [is expecting](https://kbhbradio.com/south-dakota-company-begins-trials-on-h5n1-avian-flu-vaccine-for-dairy-cows/) to complete its H5 vaccine study in December 2024 and share its results with the USDA at that time." }, { "id": 29801, "title": "Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on November 29, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-active-us-oil-drilling-rigs-be-less-than-585-on-november-29-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:43.103697Z", "published_at": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.824284Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T22:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T22:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29653, "title": "Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on November 29, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:43.103697Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T22:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-08T22:24:29.937057Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T22:19:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active oil drilling rigs is less than 585 on November 29, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count, which can be accessed at [this](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_rotary_rigs) Ycharts link.", "fine_print": "The link will be accessed by Metaculus Admins on or around November 29, 2024. In case of its inaccessibility, the secondary resolution source will be from Baker Hughes itself at [this link](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count). If both resolution links remain inaccessible by the end of the tournament, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 29801, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731098098.327026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.285 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731098098.327026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.285 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.46477838820931383 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46312022972280087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 2.266748270416375, 0.0, 0.5047892316062645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26048553583483774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944." }, { "id": 29800, "title": "Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on November 29, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-active-us-oil-drilling-rigs-be-greater-than-or-equal-to-585-and-less-than-or-equal-to-590-on-november-29-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:43.099179Z", "published_at": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.410389Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T22:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T22:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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In case of its inaccessibility, the secondary resolution source will be from Baker Hughes itself at [this link](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count). 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