Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2140
{ "count": 5960, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2160", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2120", "results": [ { "id": 27913, "title": "Will \"Rockstar\" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-rockstar-by-lisa-win-the-award-for-best-k-pop-at-the-2024-mtv-vmas", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.099335Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.405164Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27913, "title": "Will \"Rockstar\" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?", "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.099335Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Notable other nominees are \"Seven\" by Jungkook featuring Latto and \"Lalalala\" by Stray Kids.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if \"Rockstar\" by Lisa wins the Best K-Pop award at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MTV Video Music Awards\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_MTV_Video_Music_Awards) or other credible sources reporting on this awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for September 10, 2024.", "post_id": 27913, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545800.318096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.445 ], "centers": [ 0.6199999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545800.318096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.445 ], "centers": [ 0.6199999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3800000000000001, 0.6199999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.5558925050893159 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06146157962559017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7068437030077622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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}, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545800.356522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545800.356522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5114069417144382, 0.48859305828556177 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Notable other nominees are \"Seven\" by Jungkook featuring Latto and \"Lalalala\" by Stray Kids." }, { "id": 27912, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-tech-crunch-report-new-layoffs-at-amazon", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.002488Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.612253Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27912, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?", "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.002488Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Amazon had lay off events listed by Tech Crunch in January and February 2024. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Amazon has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Amazon appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Amazon is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Amazon. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.", "post_id": 27912, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545779.379152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545779.379152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.5674981666465339 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.6636365198893522, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.16241981548491255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6447747757508819, 0.04560888849351553, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.0, 1.371943731892122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.5806295116625279, 0.0, 1.93811331217145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.651751917697099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06147333520720088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.452816593877436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -39.592867633113926, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -39.592867633113926 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545779.415216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545779.415216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5015711345847625, 0.49842886541523745 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Amazon had lay off events listed by Tech Crunch in January and February 2024. " }, { "id": 27911, "title": "Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-catalent-inc-file-its-10-k-annual-report-with-the-sec-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:24.816210Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.433614Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27911, "title": "Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:24.816210Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-14T02:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 29, 2024, Catalent, Inc., received a [notification](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596783/000119312524211099/d887351dnt10k.htm) of failure to file its annual report. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a Form 10-K filed for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, for Catalent, Inc., at [this specific SEC Edgar link](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001596783&owner=exclude). If there is no such 10-K filed before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, in order to facilitate streamlined resolution no other resolution source will be considered, so forecasters are urged to predict accordingly. If SEC's Edgar site is down, resolution will wait for up to 7 days. 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" }, { "id": 27902, "title": "Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?", "short_title": "Kursk Region Ukraine-Russia War, 30 June 2025", "url_title": "Kursk Region Ukraine-Russia War, 30 June 2025", "slug": "kursk-region-ukraine-russia-war-30-june-2025", "author_id": 202409, "author_username": "EdwardStoppard", "coauthors": [ { "id": 197092, "username": "pashka24" }, { "id": 198325, "username": "anna.k.hennig" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-03T15:08:15.337397Z", "published_at": "2024-09-11T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.680067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-11T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-29T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-29T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T19:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-11T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, 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"open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Russia repel Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Russia-Repel-Ukraines-Attack-on-the-Kursk-Region)*\n\n---\n\nOn 24 February 2022, [Russia invaded Ukraine](https://www.britannica.com/event/2022-Russian-invasion-of-Ukraine#ref354585), massively escalating a conflict sparked in 2014 by the [Maidan Revolution](https://www.barrons.com/news/maidan-the-revolution-that-transformed-ukraine-13fdf1c4) which overthrew then-President Viktor Yanukovych and led to the [War in Donbas](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9476/CBP-9476.pdf) between the Ukrainian government and the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, backed by the Russian Federation.\n\nThe conflict has been mostly concentrated in Ukraine, with [Russian forces occupying some 20% of the country’s landmass](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine), and largely static since the successful Ukrainian counter-offensives in eastern and southern Ukraine in late 2022. Following the [operational failure of the 2023 Ukrainian summer offensive](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/MAPS/klvygwawavg/#four-factors-that-stalled-ukraines-counteroffensive), Russian forces began to make [marginal but steady gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Ukraine_campaign#Russian_spring_and_summer_campaign_(April_2024%E2%80%93present)) in eastern Ukraine in late 2023 and throughout the first half of 2024, leading many military analysts to believe that the conflict was [swinging in Russia’s favor](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/11/world/europe/russia-momentum-ukraine.html), given its superior numbers and resources as opposed to Ukraine’s manpower and equipment shortages. \n\nThis narrative, however, has been, at least momentarily, bucked by [Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/08/ukraines-gamble-kursk-restores-belief-it-can-beat-russia-it-requires-western-response), Russia, in August 2024. The largest Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory of the war so far, the operation caught the Russian Armed Forces and Border Service of Russia off guard, allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to establish a foothold. According to President Zelensky, the incursion has claimed [at least 92 settlements and 1,250 square kilometers of Russian territory in Kursk Oblast](https://www.newsweek.com/kursk-invasion-incursion-map-updates-russia-1946665). The parameters of the mission, as expressed by several Ukrainian political figures such as [Mykhailo Podolyak](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-operation-kursk-needed-convince-russia-start-fair-talks-kyiv-says-2024-08-16/) and [Dmytro Kuleba](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/decoding-kursk-end-sight-ukraine), is to pressure Russia to enter \"fair\" peace negotiations.\n\nSince the initial incursion, however, a state of emergency has been declared in [three Russian regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion#Related_events) (Kursk Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, and Lipetsk Oblast) and as many as [30,000 Russian troops](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-kursk-operations-aimed-to-force-russia-to-redeploy-its-forces-from-pokrovsk-sector-syrskyi-says/) have been reportedly diverted to Kursk Oblast, outnumbering Ukrainian forces in the region by at least two to one and causing the Ukrainian attack to slow significantly. At the same time, Russian forces have continued to apply pressure on Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine, which have been stretched by the re-deployment of assets to the Kursk incursion, and have pushed [within kilometers of the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c984g10e22lo), a critical logistics hub for the Ukrainian effort in the east. \n\nGiven that Ukraine’s objective was [never to occupy territory in Kursk long-term](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n-5Vq9caHg), these circumstances have caused some to argue that the Ukrainians will either be [repulsed by a Russian counter-offensive](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/how-will-ukraines-incursion-into-russia-end.html) or forced to make a [tactical withdrawal](https://youtu.be/kANrDlO_xpg?si=HwQ3V16Yz_sWmUik&t=178) to reinforce the frontline.\n\nScenarios which could lead to such an outcome include: \n\n- Conventional military offensives leading to the retreat or surrender of Ukrainian forces.\n\n- The use of advanced or strategic weaponry, including nuclear weapons, resulting in the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops.\n\n- Coordinated attacks by allied nations (e.g., Belarus) that force Ukrainian forces to reallocate their military presence, resulting in a strategic withdrawal from the Kursk Region.\n\n- Ukrainian forces have voluntarily retreated or withdrawn from the Kursk Region due to significant military pressure, resource constraints, or strategic realignment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ukraine no longer holds any territory in the Kursk Oblast region according to [DeepStateMap](https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.1529697/36.3416014) or the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/publications) (also [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375)) at any point before June 30, 2025. \n\n- The question will resolve as **No** if the above criterion is not met by June 30, 2025.", "fine_print": "If Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast at any point but captures more territory afterwards, this question will still resolve positively.\n\nIf either DeepStateMap or the Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast, the question will resolve positively, even if they do not agree.\n\nIf the both ISW and DeepStateMap cease to update maps (at least weekly) or cease to exist, this question will be **annulled**. Please also note that this question makes implicit assumptions such as the map methodology remaining largely the same; to understand how Admins will treat edge cases that may render this question unable to be clearly resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 27902, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751151241.548572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751151241.548572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7014413709915027 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010142146568156748, 0.0, 0.03153587526592278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9487983083616589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03533065453980695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11964891568324479, 0.4726397180982315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02451573508238106, 0.0, 0.03313711066127137, 0.0, 0.020598484689031187, 0.012994363513026918, 0.0, 0.003034421059397963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003460269966480128, 0.0016242268594572917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6878113878105488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006732969874897521, 0.0, 0.0014453669945896995, 0.060912983567330256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005317208022573057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8533713379377227, 1.1984930807286571, 0.003928914836847643, 0.06830738353597367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6520204740059586, 0.0, 0.5214209506007933, 0.0, 0.214511481729654, 0.5559399427967985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017000215457986484, 0.45223113303041795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007836395920405472, 0.4923820740991788, 0.013274868179678816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1535249541534927, 1.4008985496382866, 0.0, 0.07891436402356318, 0.24283972782177998, 2.183464750898796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09746231746313623, 0.0, 2.1914859061903695, 0.1891179962098457, 0.17743652524731277, 0.12795492306753103, 1.2450162931310855 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -93.17865349381559, "peer_score": 21.08020386566095, "coverage": 0.999925137981514, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999925137981514, "spot_peer_score": 48.90554516864266, "spot_baseline_score": -139.59286763311397, "baseline_archived_score": -93.17865349381559, "peer_archived_score": 21.08020386566095, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 48.90554516864266, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -139.59286763311397 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287238.861821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287238.861821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7131989544273086, 0.28680104557269137 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 371, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Russia repel Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Russia-Repel-Ukraines-Attack-on-the-Kursk-Region)*\n\n---\n\nOn 24 February 2022, [Russia invaded Ukraine](https://www.britannica.com/event/2022-Russian-invasion-of-Ukraine#ref354585), massively escalating a conflict sparked in 2014 by the [Maidan Revolution](https://www.barrons.com/news/maidan-the-revolution-that-transformed-ukraine-13fdf1c4) which overthrew then-President Viktor Yanukovych and led to the [War in Donbas](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9476/CBP-9476.pdf) between the Ukrainian government and the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, backed by the Russian Federation.\n\nThe conflict has been mostly concentrated in Ukraine, with [Russian forces occupying some 20% of the country’s landmass](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine), and largely static since the successful Ukrainian counter-offensives in eastern and southern Ukraine in late 2022. Following the [operational failure of the 2023 Ukrainian summer offensive](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/MAPS/klvygwawavg/#four-factors-that-stalled-ukraines-counteroffensive), Russian forces began to make [marginal but steady gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Ukraine_campaign#Russian_spring_and_summer_campaign_(April_2024%E2%80%93present)) in eastern Ukraine in late 2023 and throughout the first half of 2024, leading many military analysts to believe that the conflict was [swinging in Russia’s favor](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/11/world/europe/russia-momentum-ukraine.html), given its superior numbers and resources as opposed to Ukraine’s manpower and equipment shortages. \n\nThis narrative, however, has been, at least momentarily, bucked by [Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/08/ukraines-gamble-kursk-restores-belief-it-can-beat-russia-it-requires-western-response), Russia, in August 2024. The largest Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory of the war so far, the operation caught the Russian Armed Forces and Border Service of Russia off guard, allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to establish a foothold. According to President Zelensky, the incursion has claimed [at least 92 settlements and 1,250 square kilometers of Russian territory in Kursk Oblast](https://www.newsweek.com/kursk-invasion-incursion-map-updates-russia-1946665). The parameters of the mission, as expressed by several Ukrainian political figures such as [Mykhailo Podolyak](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-operation-kursk-needed-convince-russia-start-fair-talks-kyiv-says-2024-08-16/) and [Dmytro Kuleba](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/decoding-kursk-end-sight-ukraine), is to pressure Russia to enter \"fair\" peace negotiations.\n\nSince the initial incursion, however, a state of emergency has been declared in [three Russian regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion#Related_events) (Kursk Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, and Lipetsk Oblast) and as many as [30,000 Russian troops](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-kursk-operations-aimed-to-force-russia-to-redeploy-its-forces-from-pokrovsk-sector-syrskyi-says/) have been reportedly diverted to Kursk Oblast, outnumbering Ukrainian forces in the region by at least two to one and causing the Ukrainian attack to slow significantly. At the same time, Russian forces have continued to apply pressure on Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine, which have been stretched by the re-deployment of assets to the Kursk incursion, and have pushed [within kilometers of the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c984g10e22lo), a critical logistics hub for the Ukrainian effort in the east. \n\nGiven that Ukraine’s objective was [never to occupy territory in Kursk long-term](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n-5Vq9caHg), these circumstances have caused some to argue that the Ukrainians will either be [repulsed by a Russian counter-offensive](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/how-will-ukraines-incursion-into-russia-end.html) or forced to make a [tactical withdrawal](https://youtu.be/kANrDlO_xpg?si=HwQ3V16Yz_sWmUik&t=178) to reinforce the frontline.\n\nScenarios which could lead to such an outcome include: \n\n- Conventional military offensives leading to the retreat or surrender of Ukrainian forces.\n\n- The use of advanced or strategic weaponry, including nuclear weapons, resulting in the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops.\n\n- Coordinated attacks by allied nations (e.g., Belarus) that force Ukrainian forces to reallocate their military presence, resulting in a strategic withdrawal from the Kursk Region.\n\n- Ukrainian forces have voluntarily retreated or withdrawn from the Kursk Region due to significant military pressure, resource constraints, or strategic realignment." }, { "id": 27898, "title": "Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "González Detained Before Oct 1?", "url_title": "González Detained Before Oct 1?", "slug": "gonzalez-detained-before-oct-1", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-03T08:45:51.110568Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.535042Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", 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"exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27898, "title": "Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-03T08:45:51.110568Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Economist reports](https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief) that\n\n> A court in Venezuela issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo González. Mr González claims, legitimately, that he defeated President Nicolás Maduro in the presidential election in July. Since stealing the election, Mr Maduro has cracked down on dissent. Mr González, who is in hiding, has been charged with “usurpation”, conspiracy and sabotage.\n\n[According to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-attorney-general-requests-arrest-warrant-opposition-leader-gonzalez-2024-09-02/):\n\n>Lawyers consulted by Reuters said that Venezuelan law does not allow those over 70 to serve sentences in jails, instead requiring house arrest. Gonzalez, who turned 75 last week, is married and has two daughters; one lives in Caracas and the other lives in Madrid.\n>\n>The U.S. has drafted a list of about 60 Venezuelan government officials and family members who could be sanctioned in the first punitive measures following the election, two people close to the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>The warrant request came hours after the Biden administration said an aircraft used by Maduro had been confiscated in the Dominican Republic after determining that its purchase violated U.S. sanctions, a move the Venezuelan government slammed as an act of \"piracy.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Edmundo González is reported by credible sources to be deprived of liberty (detained, arrested, kidnapped, etc.) in any way, by any entity at any time before October 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "If Edmundo González is reported to die, this question will be **annulled**. Similarly, staying in hiding does not for the sake of this question count as a deprivation of liberty. The intent of the question is to capture whether anyone will be willing and able to enforce the court order.\n\nGonzález does not need to remain detained by October 1, as long as it has happened at some point before then. Thus, if he is let go, escapes, or dies during detainment this question still resolves **Yes**.", "post_id": 27898, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687379.487925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687379.487925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.00380843485640222 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.275948411465253, 2.7893567780874466, 0.03622346665219617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012956624713270975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037945794224233387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016681565683498104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011024176184751514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002996681779674101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002292301674078456 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.21364872647586, "coverage": 0.9999858289485064, "baseline_score": 90.59325147260299, "spot_peer_score": -0.7861249983424669, "peer_archived_score": 18.21364872647586, "baseline_archived_score": 90.59325147260299, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7861249983424669 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687379.519413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687379.519413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 210, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Economist reports](https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief) that\n\n> A court in Venezuela issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo González. Mr González claims, legitimately, that he defeated President Nicolás Maduro in the presidential election in July. Since stealing the election, Mr Maduro has cracked down on dissent. Mr González, who is in hiding, has been charged with “usurpation”, conspiracy and sabotage.\n\n[According to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-attorney-general-requests-arrest-warrant-opposition-leader-gonzalez-2024-09-02/):\n\n>Lawyers consulted by Reuters said that Venezuelan law does not allow those over 70 to serve sentences in jails, instead requiring house arrest. Gonzalez, who turned 75 last week, is married and has two daughters; one lives in Caracas and the other lives in Madrid.\n>\n>The U.S. has drafted a list of about 60 Venezuelan government officials and family members who could be sanctioned in the first punitive measures following the election, two people close to the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>The warrant request came hours after the Biden administration said an aircraft used by Maduro had been confiscated in the Dominican Republic after determining that its purchase violated U.S. sanctions, a move the Venezuelan government slammed as an act of \"piracy.\"" }, { "id": 27897, "title": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-start-a-second-mobilization-wave-before-october-1-2024-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T14:12:25.667948Z", "published_at": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.338987Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27897, "title": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T14:12:25.667948Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the ISW: \n\n> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent\n\n[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.\n\n[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)\n\n> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.\n> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a \"huge mobilization reserve\" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.\n> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.\n\nAs of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).\n\n\nRelated Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates) (ISW) reports that a second wave of mobilization is underway in Russia. If this event does not happen, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* For this resolution, \"mobilization\" is defined as the formal conscription or summoning of reservists by the Russian government, as explicitly recognized and reported by ISW. This includes actions officially declared by the government such as a \"partial mobilization.\" However, this does not include unofficial recruitments often referred to as \"[crypto-mobilization](https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/75547/what-is-crypto-mobilization)\" or \"self-mobilization,\" or any form of volunteer enlistment. The resolution will rely solely on ISW’s characterization of the mobilization as formally acknowledged by the Russian government.\n\n* If the Institute for the Study of War writes that the next wave of mobilization has not only begun, but has already ended, then this also resolves as Yes.\n\n* ISW will be the sole source used for resolution of this question. If ISW ceases to operate or ceases to publish the relevant updates following the launch of this question, it may resolve as Annulled. Metaculus will determine appropriate resolution based on its assessment of ISW's publications. However, unless ISW’s coverage on the topic is discontinued in this manner, if no official mobilization is reported by ISW before October 1, 2024, then this question will resolve as No.", "post_id": 27897, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725459379.322093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725459379.322093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.23909894591353395 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0596694895737375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0694553809045448, 0.0, 0.23586467659496937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.7654150283970271, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 1.313938080504014, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.06427640630688772, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 54.59683691052925, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 54.59683691052925 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725459379.352061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725459379.352061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8970043919655468, 0.10299560803445316 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the ISW: \n\n> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent\n\n[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.\n\n[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)\n\n> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.\n> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a \"huge mobilization reserve\" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.\n> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.\n\nAs of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).\n\n\nRelated Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)" }, { "id": 27896, "title": "Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-an-all-out-war-between-israel-and-hezbollah-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T14:12:25.429720Z", "published_at": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.481753Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27896, "title": "Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T14:12:25.429720Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-there-be-an-Israel-Hezbollah-war)\n\n\nThe Israel-Hezbollah conflict is rooted in [long-standing tensions between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah%E2%80%93Israel_conflict). The conflict has intensified since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, after which Hezbollah and Israel also exchanged fired. [Border skirmishes and rocket attacks](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah#chapter-title-0-7) have continued since. Hezbollah, [which is backed by Iran](https://apnews.com/article/hezbollah-israel-hamas-lebanon-gaza-62d6eb8831fbd871f862146add7970d9), is [considered a terrorist organization by the US](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\nThe ongoing conflict has had significant [humanitarian](https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20240709_ACAPS_Briefing_note_Lebanon__humanitarian_impact_of_escalating_Hezbollah-Israel_hostilities.pdf) and [political](https://theconversation.com/escalating-israel-hezbollah-clashes-threaten-to-spark-regional-war-and-force-us-into-conflict-with-iran-232803) repercussions, with casualties on both sides and a [growing international concern](https://www.dw.com/en/israel-hezbollah-rising-concern-real-war-will-break-out/a-69483076) over the potential for a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing military engagements and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the tensions.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as Yes if, before Oct. 1, 2024, at least one of the following three scenarios takes place:\n\n- A substantial land incursion by Israeli forces into Lebanon, marked by the deployment of at least 1,000 ground troops and at least 10 [armored vehicles](https://www.britannica.com/technology/armoured-vehicle) in total anywhere in Lebanon on the other side of the [Blue Line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Line_(withdrawal_line)), with a sustained presence of at least 72 hours.\n- A substantial land incursion by Hezbollah into the Golan Heights or Israel, characterized by the deployment of at least 1,000 of its armed fighters in total on the other side of the Blue Line, with no requirements for a sustained presence.\n- A formal declaration of war by one or both parties.\n\nIf none of the criteria above have been met, this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "In the Israeli context, a formal declaration of war is [defined as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war): \n\n>Per article 40(a) of the Basic Law The Knesset, the state will declare war \"pursuant to a government decision\" with the prime minister to give notice to the Knesset \"as soon as possible.\" Per article 3(a) of the Basic Law The Government, \"the Government is comprised of the Prime Minister and Ministers.\"\n\nIn the Hezbollah context, as Hezbollah is a non-state actor, a formal declaration of war will be considered by Metaculus Admins to have occurred if the [Secretary-General of Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary-General_of_Hezbollah) unambiguously states that Hezbollah is declaring war on Israel according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) sources. Please note that making threats or merely restating the existence of current hostilities with Israel (e.g., statements such as \"We have always been engaged in holy war with Israel\") will not count. In case of any ambiguity about whether Hezbollah's Secretary-General has actually declared war or is merely engaged in rhetorical flourishes, Metaculus may convene a panel of 3 Admins to make a ruling about what has occurred.\n\nResolution will be according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). In the event of an Israeli deployment into Lebanon, if there are no credible reports of the numbers of soldiers involved, resolution will wait up to 14 days for there to be such a report. If there are no such reports, Metaculus may convene a panel of Admins to determine whether events suggest that the threshold of 1,000 ground troops has been exceeded.", "post_id": 27896, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725459355.422861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15000000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.2025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725459355.422861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15000000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.2025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7975, 0.2025 ], "means": [ 0.22904932958080335 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2080229624776491, 0.0, 0.38510038393919666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9307144213562842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7023430845224095, 0.06427640630688772, 0.537540609676787, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045764208399009985, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8560366996251537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7563838179070927, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725459355.477765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725459355.477765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8807875122576245, 0.11921248774237543 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-there-be-an-Israel-Hezbollah-war)\n\n\nThe Israel-Hezbollah conflict is rooted in [long-standing tensions between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah%E2%80%93Israel_conflict). The conflict has intensified since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, after which Hezbollah and Israel also exchanged fired. [Border skirmishes and rocket attacks](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah#chapter-title-0-7) have continued since. Hezbollah, [which is backed by Iran](https://apnews.com/article/hezbollah-israel-hamas-lebanon-gaza-62d6eb8831fbd871f862146add7970d9), is [considered a terrorist organization by the US](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\nThe ongoing conflict has had significant [humanitarian](https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20240709_ACAPS_Briefing_note_Lebanon__humanitarian_impact_of_escalating_Hezbollah-Israel_hostilities.pdf) and [political](https://theconversation.com/escalating-israel-hezbollah-clashes-threaten-to-spark-regional-war-and-force-us-into-conflict-with-iran-232803) repercussions, with casualties on both sides and a [growing international concern](https://www.dw.com/en/israel-hezbollah-rising-concern-real-war-will-break-out/a-69483076) over the potential for a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing military engagements and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the tensions." }, { "id": 27895, "title": "Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-alexandre-de-moraes-cease-to-be-a-minister-of-the-supreme-federal-court-of-brazil-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T14:12:25.186583Z", "published_at": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.705087Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27895, "title": "Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T14:12:25.186583Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After shutting down X in Brazil, [Alexandre de Moraes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes), a minister of the Supreme Federal Court, has [been accused](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/brazils-most-powerful-judge-is-in-the-spotlight-again/) by certain Brazilian voters and international observers including [Elon Musk](https://www.voanews.com/a/alexandre-de-moraes-brazil-judge-in-feud-with-elon-musk/7766449.html) of having unduly influenced the Brazilian General elections in 2022, among other criticisms. As a result, certain political groups have called for de Moraes's impeachment and prosecution.\n\nJudges on the Supreme Federal Court [are appointed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Federal_Court) for life, with a mandatory retirement age of 75. (De Moraes is 55.) For an overview of how a hypothetical impeachment process might play out, please see [The Impeachment of Authorities in Brazil explained](https://www.lickslegal.com/post/the-impeachment-of-authorities-in-brazil-explained).\n\nSee Also\n\n- Politico: [Top Brazilian judge orders suspension of X platform in Brazil amid feud with Musk](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/30/top-brazilian-judge-orders-suspension-of-x-00176920)\n- AFP: [Musk vs. Brazil Supreme Court: five things to know](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240410-musk-vs-brazil-supreme-court-five-things-to-know)\n- New York Times: [He Is Brazil’s Defender of Democracy. Is He Actually Good for Democracy? Alexandre de Moraes, a Brazilian Supreme Court justice, was crucial to Brazil’s transfer of power. But his aggressive tactics are prompting debate: Can one go too far to fight the far right?](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/world/americas/brazil-alexandre-de-moraes.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a minister on the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), whether through impeachment, resignation, retirement, or any other reason. If this event does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that temporarily leaving his role, such as suspension from office during an impeachment trial, taking an extended leave of absence, or being temporarily incapacitated, will not count.\n\nIn case of any dispute about whether de Moraes has ceased to be a Supreme Federal Court minister, the confirmation of a successor would count as the definitive evidence. Generally, however, Admins will seek to resolve the question based on credible source reporting.", "post_id": 27895, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725459404.15272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725459404.15272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.12174027503005304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.7093588386753561, 1.0169329695672753, 0.014369596090439076, 2.2885788729010916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8322595053523607, 0.9828932555088299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0963055375094604, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492044659666586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 86.39384504239716, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 86.39384504239716 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725459404.178843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725459404.178843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9842272093193322, 0.015772790680667795 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After shutting down X in Brazil, [Alexandre de Moraes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes), a minister of the Supreme Federal Court, has [been accused](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/brazils-most-powerful-judge-is-in-the-spotlight-again/) by certain Brazilian voters and international observers including [Elon Musk](https://www.voanews.com/a/alexandre-de-moraes-brazil-judge-in-feud-with-elon-musk/7766449.html) of having unduly influenced the Brazilian General elections in 2022, among other criticisms. As a result, certain political groups have called for de Moraes's impeachment and prosecution.\n\nJudges on the Supreme Federal Court [are appointed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Federal_Court) for life, with a mandatory retirement age of 75. (De Moraes is 55.) For an overview of how a hypothetical impeachment process might play out, please see [The Impeachment of Authorities in Brazil explained](https://www.lickslegal.com/post/the-impeachment-of-authorities-in-brazil-explained).\n\nSee Also\n\n- Politico: [Top Brazilian judge orders suspension of X platform in Brazil amid feud with Musk](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/30/top-brazilian-judge-orders-suspension-of-x-00176920)\n- AFP: [Musk vs. Brazil Supreme Court: five things to know](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240410-musk-vs-brazil-supreme-court-five-things-to-know)\n- New York Times: [He Is Brazil’s Defender of Democracy. Is He Actually Good for Democracy? Alexandre de Moraes, a Brazilian Supreme Court justice, was crucial to Brazil’s transfer of power. But his aggressive tactics are prompting debate: Can one go too far to fight the far right?](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/world/americas/brazil-alexandre-de-moraes.html)" }, { "id": 27887, "title": "Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-baby-reindeer-win-the-2024-primetime-emmy-award-for-outstanding-limited-or-anthology-series", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T12:10:21.960319Z", "published_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.452158Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27887, "title": "Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T12:10:21.960319Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T12:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Baby Reindeer is on Netflix. Other contenders are: Fargo (FX), Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+), Ripley (Netflix), and True Detective: Night Country (HBO)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the TV series Baby Reindeer wins the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [76th Primetime Emmy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/76th_Primetime_Emmy_Awards) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards show is scheduled for September 15, 2024.", "post_id": 27887, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725372944.271738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725372944.271738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4399943168543573 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.08236431053185626, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 2.307983221697363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.1648846227603165, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 1.3408014765599083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 1.0337991717578503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725372944.312135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725372944.312135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7156855615265812, 0.28431443847341875 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Baby Reindeer is on Netflix. 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The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MTV Video Music Awards\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_MTV_Video_Music_Awards) or other credible sources reporting on this awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for September 10, 2024. For purposes of this question, any award, including special awards such as the Global Icon Award or the Video Vanguard Award, will count.", "post_id": 27886, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725373009.85657, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725373009.85657, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.23750000000000004, 0.7625 ], "means": [ 0.7064118604360775 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7953569814754423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43873959438930515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 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1725373009.893779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725373009.893779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30304010043352403, 0.696959899566476 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Taylor Swift has, at the time of this question, been nominated for the following 10 awards: Video of the Year, Song of the Year, Artist of the Year, Best Collaboration, Best Pop, Best Visual Effects, Best Editing, Best Direction, Best Art Direction, and Best Cinematography." }, { "id": 27885, "title": "Will Super Micro Computer, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-super-micro-computer-inc-file-its-10-k-annual-report-with-the-sec-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T12:10:21.367755Z", "published_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.002840Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T12:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T12:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus 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SEC before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T12:10:21.367755Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T12:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T12:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T12:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 30, 2024, Super Micro Computer, Inc., received a [notification](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536524000031/smci-form12bx25nt10xkx2024.htm) of failure to file its annual report. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a Form 10-K filed for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, for Super Micro Computer, Inc., at [this specific SEC Edgar link](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001375365&owner=exclude). If there is no such 10-K filed before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, in order to facilitate streamlined resolution no other resolution source will be considered, so forecasters are urged to predict accordingly. If SEC's Edgar site is down, resolution will wait for up to 7 days. 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" }, { "id": 27877, "title": "Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-frontier-open-source-ai-model-on-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T00:33:53.085805Z", "published_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.561830Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27877, "title": "Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T00:33:53.085805Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*\n\nThis question aims to shed light on whether the gap between leading AI labs' models and open-source models is likely to grow, shrink, or stay roughly the same.\n\nThroughout the last couple of years, open-source models have not quite been at the cutting edge of large language models, but they have also not been far behind. (Note: this question was written in September 2023.) For instance, [Cottier (2022)](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nc3JFZbqnzWWAPkmz/understanding-the-diffusion-of-large-language-models-summary-1) estimates that there was a gap of 23 months between the release of GPT-3, then the best large language model to date, and the release of an open-source model that was as good as GPT-3.\n\nChatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) It uses an Elo rating system, similar to the one used in chess, to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Note that it generally takes about a month for a model to get an Arena rating after its release.", "resolution_criteria": "Each subquestion resolves as **Yes** if, on October 1, 2024, an open-source model (i.e., a model with a license that is anything other than “proprietary”) is either:\n\n* Top 3 on the [chat.lmsys.org](chat.lmsys.org) leaderboard when [ranked by Arena ELO, MMLU, or MT-bench](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard).\n* Within 50 rating points of the #1 ranked model by [Arena ELO](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) rating on the [chat.lmsys.org](chat.lmsys.org) leaderboard.", "fine_print": "Chatbot Arena in its present form is a benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs), which are the frontier type of AI model at present. In a few years time, however, it may be the case that frontier AI models are not LLMs. If this is the case, then the resolution criteria will be adapted in a way that fits the spirit of the original wording as closely as possible. For example, if Chatbot Arena has a new subsection of its site dedicated to frontier AI models (not necessarily LLMs), where the models are ranked by Elo, then the resolution wording would be unchanged other than linking to a different part of the Chatbot Arena site. A further example: If Chatbot Arena remains focused on LLMs but another site ranks the top AI models, then the resolution will be changed to link to this other site and we will do our best to match up the original bar for resolution with the new bar, if the other site does not rank models by Elo.", "post_id": 27877, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725372951.043761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4779999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725372951.043761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4779999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.522, 0.4779999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.4700909463986612 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4473948343763365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 1.1387296791238675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4397095773749171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.2801509562747174, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15858863811458773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.076946588969736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7741138940500014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.6266147193198941, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06730546781687305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 6.212171190779749, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 6.212171190779749 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725372951.083223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725372951.083223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.733386012865854, 0.26661398713414597 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*\n\nThis question aims to shed light on whether the gap between leading AI labs' models and open-source models is likely to grow, shrink, or stay roughly the same.\n\nThroughout the last couple of years, open-source models have not quite been at the cutting edge of large language models, but they have also not been far behind. (Note: this question was written in September 2023.) For instance, [Cottier (2022)](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nc3JFZbqnzWWAPkmz/understanding-the-diffusion-of-large-language-models-summary-1) estimates that there was a gap of 23 months between the release of GPT-3, then the best large language model to date, and the release of an open-source model that was as good as GPT-3.\n\nChatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) It uses an Elo rating system, similar to the one used in chess, to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Note that it generally takes about a month for a model to get an Arena rating after its release." }, { "id": 27876, "title": "Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-control-pokrovsk-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T00:33:52.848203Z", "published_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.192772Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27876, "title": "Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T00:33:52.848203Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the months since Russia captured Avdiivka, they have gained control of land at a relatively steady pace on the [eastern frontline](https://archive.ph/ABnN0), though likely at high personnel costs. If the city of Pokrovsk is captured, Ukraine will have mounting difficulties controlling Russian advances in DONETSK Oblast. A recent Ukrainian offensive in Kursk has not appeared to slow Russian momentum near Pokrovsk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if the coordinates in Pokrovsk of 48°17'12.9\"N 37°10'39.8\"E are assessed as under Russian control according to [this Institute for the Study of War map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) before October 1, 2024. This question will resolve as **no** otherwise.", "fine_print": "If Ukraine or Russia cease to exist, this question will resolve as **ambiguous**. \n\nIf the ISW ceases to update maps (at least weekly) or ceases to exist, [DeepStateMap](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.2869053/37.1777344) will be used instead.", "post_id": 27876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725372987.621569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.449 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7025 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725372987.621569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.449 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7025 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5424890455266661 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09313263992392556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10134174905292345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8383197091715122, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 1.8644962729612544, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 1.0, 0.0, 0.03680892014265008, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725372987.660155, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725372987.660155, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6572899147937319, 0.3427100852062681 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the months since Russia captured Avdiivka, they have gained control of land at a relatively steady pace on the [eastern frontline](https://archive.ph/ABnN0), though likely at high personnel costs. If the city of Pokrovsk is captured, Ukraine will have mounting difficulties controlling Russian advances in DONETSK Oblast. A recent Ukrainian offensive in Kursk has not appeared to slow Russian momentum near Pokrovsk." }, { "id": 27873, "title": "Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026?", "short_title": "Impeachment Judge de Moraes in Brazil", "url_title": "Impeachment Judge de Moraes in Brazil", "slug": "impeachment-judge-de-moraes-in-brazil", "author_id": 205193, "author_username": "hellsBells", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-01T19:19:30.999244Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T08:27:27.105016Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-04T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27873, "title": "Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-09-01T19:19:30.999244Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After shutting down X in Brazil, [Alexandre de Moraes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes), a minister of the Supreme Federal Court, has [been accused](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/brazils-most-powerful-judge-is-in-the-spotlight-again/) by certain Brazilian voters and international observers including [Elon Musk](https://www.voanews.com/a/alexandre-de-moraes-brazil-judge-in-feud-with-elon-musk/7766449.html) of having unduly influenced the Brazilian General elections in 2022, among other criticisms. As a result, certain political groups have called for de Moraes's impeachment and prosecution.\n\nJudges on the Supreme Federal Court [are appointed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Federal_Court) for life, with a mandatory retirement age of 75. (De Moraes is 55.) For an overview of how a hypothetical impeachment process might play out, please see [The Impeachment of Authorities in Brazil explained](https://www.lickslegal.com/post/the-impeachment-of-authorities-in-brazil-explained).\n\nSee Also\n\n- Politico: [Top Brazilian judge orders suspension of X platform in Brazil amid feud with Musk](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/30/top-brazilian-judge-orders-suspension-of-x-00176920)\n- AFP: [Musk vs. Brazil Supreme Court: five things to know](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240410-musk-vs-brazil-supreme-court-five-things-to-know)\n- New York Times: [He Is Brazil’s Defender of Democracy. Is He Actually Good for Democracy? Alexandre de Moraes, a Brazilian Supreme Court justice, was crucial to Brazil’s transfer of power. But his aggressive tactics are prompting debate: Can one go too far to fight the far right?](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/world/americas/brazil-alexandre-de-moraes.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a minister on the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before January 1, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), whether through impeachment, resignation, retirement, or any other reason. If this event does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that temporarily leaving his role, such as suspension from office during an impeachment trial, taking an extended leave of absence, or being temporarily incapacitated, will not count.\n\nIn case of any dispute about whether de Moraes has ceased to be a Supreme Federal Court minister, the confirmation of a successor would count as the definitive evidence. Generally, however, Admins will seek to resolve the question based on credible source reporting.", "post_id": 27873, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758097636.881733, "end_time": 1759453276.799, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758097636.881733, "end_time": 1759453276.799, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.17699919039921352 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3907557695730516, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 1.7394682331392084, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288752.709483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288752.709483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7472329081363946, 0.25276709186360535 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After shutting down X in Brazil, [Alexandre de Moraes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes), a minister of the Supreme Federal Court, has [been accused](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/brazils-most-powerful-judge-is-in-the-spotlight-again/) by certain Brazilian voters and international observers including [Elon Musk](https://www.voanews.com/a/alexandre-de-moraes-brazil-judge-in-feud-with-elon-musk/7766449.html) of having unduly influenced the Brazilian General elections in 2022, among other criticisms. As a result, certain political groups have called for de Moraes's impeachment and prosecution.\n\nJudges on the Supreme Federal Court [are appointed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Federal_Court) for life, with a mandatory retirement age of 75. (De Moraes is 55.) For an overview of how a hypothetical impeachment process might play out, please see [The Impeachment of Authorities in Brazil explained](https://www.lickslegal.com/post/the-impeachment-of-authorities-in-brazil-explained).\n\nSee Also\n\n- Politico: [Top Brazilian judge orders suspension of X platform in Brazil amid feud with Musk](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/30/top-brazilian-judge-orders-suspension-of-x-00176920)\n- AFP: [Musk vs. Brazil Supreme Court: five things to know](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240410-musk-vs-brazil-supreme-court-five-things-to-know)\n- New York Times: [He Is Brazil’s Defender of Democracy. Is He Actually Good for Democracy? Alexandre de Moraes, a Brazilian Supreme Court justice, was crucial to Brazil’s transfer of power. But his aggressive tactics are prompting debate: Can one go too far to fight the far right?](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/world/americas/brazil-alexandre-de-moraes.html)" }, { "id": 27868, "title": "Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?", "short_title": "Will Starliner be canceled?", "url_title": "Will Starliner be canceled?", "slug": "will-starliner-be-canceled", "author_id": 141781, "author_username": "Marmoset_Threat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-31T14:23:08.193609Z", "published_at": "2024-09-08T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T13:52:27.584452Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-08T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-08T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27868, "title": "Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?", "created_at": "2024-08-31T14:23:08.193609Z", "open_time": "2024-09-08T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the [NASA Commercial Crew program](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/commercial-space/commercial-crew-program/) (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named *Starliner* to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS. \n\nUnfortunately, since inception, this Boeing program has been riddled with issues and delays. The [first orbital demo flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test), taking place in December 2019, was a failure as while the capsule was safely recovered, multiple serious issues during flight resulted in not completing mission objectives, such as reaching and docking with the ISS. \n\nDue to these issues, Boeing agreed to perform a [second orbital flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2) at \"no cost to the taxpayer\" with an estimated US$410 million out-of-pocket expenditure, and while this mission was nominally successful with the spacecraft docking to the ISS and returning safely, multiple serious issues were discovered both pre-launch--causing delays--and during operation including numerous failures of the maneuvering thruster system. \n\nThe latest flight of Starliner, the [crew flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test) launched in 2024 and gained massive media attention as failures in the thruster system resulted in the astronauts getting \"stranded\" aboard the ISS. After investigation, Boeing and NASA have decided to not risk returning the astronauts on the partially defective Starliner capsule, instead returning them on a different spacecraft. The defective Starliner will return to earth, unmanned. \n\nLooking towards the future, there is currently a planned [Starliner-1 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1) in the \"fully operational phase\" of the Starliner Commercial Crew program, scheduled for no earlier than August, 2025. This mission, if it takes place, will begin a series of regular operational missions where Starliner transports four astronauts up to the ISS on a schedule. \n\nGenerally though, there are serious doubts about the future of the Boeing Starliner program. [For example, NASA has already double-booked the Starliner-1 Flight with the SpaceX-11 Flight](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starliner-passes-in-orbit-tests-but-first-operational-launch-slips/) in anticipation that Boeing will not be ready in time.\n\nThe technical issues, and more critically, the apparent inability of Boeing to fix known technical issues throw serious doubt upon Boeing's engineering skill and commitment to the program, making it likely that, for example, NASA insists on a fourth demo flight or potentially, Boeing decides to cut their losses and cancels the program.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if either of these events occur before January 1, 2032:\n\n- The Boeing Starliner Program ceases to be part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. \n- Boeing withdraws from the NASA Commercial Crew Program before completing its [first operational flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1). \n\nThis question resolves as **No** if either of these occur: \n\n- The Boeing Starliner Program is not canceled before January 1, 2032.\n- The Boeing Starliner Program completes its first operational flight.", "fine_print": "There is a decent chance that additional test or demonstration flights are performed, and these are not counted in this case. The deciding flight needs to be distinctly considered an \"operational\" flight, the \"Post Certification Mission-1\" or \"Boeing Starliner-1.\"", "post_id": 27868, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757339536.992273, "end_time": 1759081897.251211, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.416 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.576 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757339536.992273, "end_time": 1759081897.251211, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.416 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.576 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5840000000000001, 0.416 ], "means": [ 0.48770818454886267 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.679832146183981, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 1.1068779256603858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.37770384654872324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.598310734715908 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289332.378173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289332.378173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7392445042410214, 0.2607554957589786 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the [NASA Commercial Crew program](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/commercial-space/commercial-crew-program/) (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named *Starliner* to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS. \n\nUnfortunately, since inception, this Boeing program has been riddled with issues and delays. The [first orbital demo flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test), taking place in December 2019, was a failure as while the capsule was safely recovered, multiple serious issues during flight resulted in not completing mission objectives, such as reaching and docking with the ISS. \n\nDue to these issues, Boeing agreed to perform a [second orbital flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2) at \"no cost to the taxpayer\" with an estimated US$410 million out-of-pocket expenditure, and while this mission was nominally successful with the spacecraft docking to the ISS and returning safely, multiple serious issues were discovered both pre-launch--causing delays--and during operation including numerous failures of the maneuvering thruster system. \n\nThe latest flight of Starliner, the [crew flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test) launched in 2024 and gained massive media attention as failures in the thruster system resulted in the astronauts getting \"stranded\" aboard the ISS. After investigation, Boeing and NASA have decided to not risk returning the astronauts on the partially defective Starliner capsule, instead returning them on a different spacecraft. The defective Starliner will return to earth, unmanned. \n\nLooking towards the future, there is currently a planned [Starliner-1 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1) in the \"fully operational phase\" of the Starliner Commercial Crew program, scheduled for no earlier than August, 2025. This mission, if it takes place, will begin a series of regular operational missions where Starliner transports four astronauts up to the ISS on a schedule. \n\nGenerally though, there are serious doubts about the future of the Boeing Starliner program. [For example, NASA has already double-booked the Starliner-1 Flight with the SpaceX-11 Flight](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starliner-passes-in-orbit-tests-but-first-operational-launch-slips/) in anticipation that Boeing will not be ready in time.\n\nThe technical issues, and more critically, the apparent inability of Boeing to fix known technical issues throw serious doubt upon Boeing's engineering skill and commitment to the program, making it likely that, for example, NASA insists on a fourth demo flight or potentially, Boeing decides to cut their losses and cancels the program." }, { "id": 27804, "title": "Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-pavel-durov-leave-france-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-30T02:06:43.413198Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.492234Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27804, "title": "Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-30T02:06:43.413198Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pavel Durov is a Russian enterpreneur, founder of several projects, most known for VK social networking site, Telegram messaging app and TON blockchain network.\n\nHe left Russia in 2014 and was forced to sell VK after refusing to give Russian state agencies access to private user messages. He went on to found Telegram messaging app which faced similar issues, and was blocked in Russia after refusal to provide encryption keys to FSB, which led to several years of whack-a-mole game between Roskomnadzor and Telegram, former trying to prevent access to latter, and Telegram [winning this game in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blocking_of_Telegram_in_Russia), when Roskomnadzor officially gave up.\n\nReportedly, neither Russian nor Western intelligence agencies currently have access to Telegram encryption keys and *encrypted* user messages. Pavel Durov [was arrested in France on August 24](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/25/technology/pavel-durov-telegram-detained-france.html) during his private jet emergency refueling stop, on accounts of assisting terrorism and drug trafficking (and some others, totaling 20) by refusing to provide Telegram encryption keys to French state agencies.", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report before October 1, 2024, that Pavel Durov has left France. If no such report is made before deadline, question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Durov's legal status does not affect resolution of this question (e.g. being extradited counts as Yes).\n* Duration of leave does not affect question resolution either (a reported overnight trip to London, then back to France counts as **Yes**).\n* If Pavel Durov goes missing or dies in France before October 1, 2024, this question should be **Annulled**", "post_id": 27804, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113806.067836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.092 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113806.067836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.092 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2647291106857927 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5769439002861662, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.6796124580803228, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9354480216961434, 1.1636212376520603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.3260481154903181, 0.1836394386094319, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 1.375557905624906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7689954867847082, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113806.094932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113806.094932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8836856842343644, 0.11631431576563557 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pavel Durov is a Russian enterpreneur, founder of several projects, most known for VK social networking site, Telegram messaging app and TON blockchain network.\n\nHe left Russia in 2014 and was forced to sell VK after refusing to give Russian state agencies access to private user messages. He went on to found Telegram messaging app which faced similar issues, and was blocked in Russia after refusal to provide encryption keys to FSB, which led to several years of whack-a-mole game between Roskomnadzor and Telegram, former trying to prevent access to latter, and Telegram [winning this game in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blocking_of_Telegram_in_Russia), when Roskomnadzor officially gave up.\n\nReportedly, neither Russian nor Western intelligence agencies currently have access to Telegram encryption keys and *encrypted* user messages. Pavel Durov [was arrested in France on August 24](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/25/technology/pavel-durov-telegram-detained-france.html) during his private jet emergency refueling stop, on accounts of assisting terrorism and drug trafficking (and some others, totaling 20) by refusing to provide Telegram encryption keys to French state agencies." }, { "id": 27800, "title": "Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?", "short_title": "Israel-Hezbollah War 2024", "url_title": "Israel-Hezbollah War 2024", "slug": "israel-hezbollah-war-2024", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [ { "id": 198325, "username": "anna.k.hennig" }, { "id": 202409, "username": "EdwardStoppard" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-29T16:34:27.765425Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T11:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.515872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T11:59:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-08T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T11:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27800, "title": "Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-29T16:34:27.765425Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T11:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T11:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T11:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-15T17:46:21.003207Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-08T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-there-be-an-Israel-Hezbollah-war)\n\n\nThe Israel-Hezbollah conflict is rooted in [long-standing tensions between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah%E2%80%93Israel_conflict). The conflict has intensified since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, after which Hezbollah and Israel also exchanged fired. [Border skirmishes and rocket attacks](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah#chapter-title-0-7) have continued since. Hezbollah, [which is backed by Iran](https://apnews.com/article/hezbollah-israel-hamas-lebanon-gaza-62d6eb8831fbd871f862146add7970d9), is [considered a terrorist organization by the US](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\nThe ongoing conflict has had significant [humanitarian](https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20240709_ACAPS_Briefing_note_Lebanon__humanitarian_impact_of_escalating_Hezbollah-Israel_hostilities.pdf) and [political](https://theconversation.com/escalating-israel-hezbollah-clashes-threaten-to-spark-regional-war-and-force-us-into-conflict-with-iran-232803) repercussions, with casualties on both sides and a [growing international concern](https://www.dw.com/en/israel-hezbollah-rising-concern-real-war-will-break-out/a-69483076) over the potential for a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing military engagements and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the tensions.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as Yes if, before Dec. 31, 2024, at least one of the following three scenarios takes place:\n\n- A substantial land incursion by Israeli forces into Lebanon, marked by the deployment of at least 1,000 ground troops and at least 10 [armored vehicles](https://www.britannica.com/technology/armoured-vehicle) in total anywhere in Lebanon on the other side of the [Blue Line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Line_(withdrawal_line)), with a sustained presence of at least 72 hours.\n- A substantial land incursion by Hezbollah into the Golan Heights or Israel, characterized by the deployment of at least 1,000 of its armed fighters in total on the other side of the Blue Line, with no requirements for a sustained presence.\n- A formal declaration of war by one or both parties.\n\nIf none of the criteria above have been met, this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "In the Israeli context, a formal declaration of war is [defined as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war): \n\n>Per article 40(a) of the Basic Law The Knesset, the state will declare war \"pursuant to a government decision\" with the prime minister to give notice to the Knesset \"as soon as possible.\" Per article 3(a) of the Basic Law The Government, \"the Government is comprised of the Prime Minister and Ministers.\"\n\nIn the Hezbollah context, as Hezbollah is a non-state actor, a formal declaration of war will be considered by Metaculus Admins to have occurred if the [Secretary-General of Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary-General_of_Hezbollah) unambiguously states that Hezbollah is declaring war on Israel according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) sources. Please note that making threats or merely restating the existence of current hostilities with Israel (e.g., statements such as \"We have always been engaged in holy war with Israel\") will not count. In case of any ambiguity about whether Hezbollah's Secretary-General has actually declared war or is merely engaged in rhetorical flourishes, Metaculus may convene a panel of 3 Admins to make a ruling about what has occurred.\n\nResolution will be according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). In the event of an Israeli deployment into Lebanon, if there are no credible reports of the numbers of soldiers involved, resolution will wait up to 14 days for there to be such a report. If there are no such reports, Metaculus may convene a panel of Admins to determine whether events suggest that the threshold of 1,000 ground troops has been exceeded.", "post_id": 27800, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728495553.180091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728495553.180091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9831845964192323 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016749238171012292, 0.0, 0.001218877601747685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034322177175539247, 0.0, 0.0021895956111741962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014249192245099284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01012841545107669, 0.0, 0.00816896048126611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002772598180409281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00946706080046129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005013548757078691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016179044804938477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012495570994977083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007000590723138572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02594172897048416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023164381480015078, 0.0, 0.8309139094020386, 0.08482337249261131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0447479657310188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13228954673742846, 12.517703210934433 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -3.6439415463251614, "peer_score": 1.5773611635272375, "coverage": 0.07052658178370104, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994803955424723, "spot_peer_score": -43.83440226812973, "baseline_archived_score": -3.6439415463251614, "peer_archived_score": 1.5773611635272375, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -43.83440226812973 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287961.917996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287961.917996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.046713880268932306, 0.9532861197310677 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 164, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-there-be-an-Israel-Hezbollah-war)\n\n\nThe Israel-Hezbollah conflict is rooted in [long-standing tensions between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah%E2%80%93Israel_conflict). The conflict has intensified since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, after which Hezbollah and Israel also exchanged fired. [Border skirmishes and rocket attacks](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah#chapter-title-0-7) have continued since. Hezbollah, [which is backed by Iran](https://apnews.com/article/hezbollah-israel-hamas-lebanon-gaza-62d6eb8831fbd871f862146add7970d9), is [considered a terrorist organization by the US](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\nThe ongoing conflict has had significant [humanitarian](https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20240709_ACAPS_Briefing_note_Lebanon__humanitarian_impact_of_escalating_Hezbollah-Israel_hostilities.pdf) and [political](https://theconversation.com/escalating-israel-hezbollah-clashes-threaten-to-spark-regional-war-and-force-us-into-conflict-with-iran-232803) repercussions, with casualties on both sides and a [growing international concern](https://www.dw.com/en/israel-hezbollah-rising-concern-real-war-will-break-out/a-69483076) over the potential for a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing military engagements and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the tensions." }, { "id": 27797, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?", "short_title": "Calypso Undock From ISS Before Sept 16?", "url_title": "Calypso Undock From ISS Before Sept 16?", "slug": "calypso-undock-from-iss-before-sept-16", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-29T11:39:33.758706Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.977782Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T22:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-09T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-09T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T22:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27797, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?", "created_at": "2024-08-29T11:39:33.758706Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-09T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T22:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-06T22:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-09T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T22:06:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, [according to The Economist](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/08/22/nasa-insists-that-two-astronauts-are-not-stranded-in-space):\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/):\n\n> Instead, the agency has asked SpaceX to use its Crew Dragon spacecraft to fly astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams back to Earth. \n>\n> [...] no earlier than September 24, a Crew Dragon spacecraft will launch with two astronauts to the space station with two empty seats. Wilmore and Williams will join these two Crew-9 astronauts for their previously scheduled six-month increment on the space station. All four will then return to Earth on the Crew Dragon vehicle. \n\nThis leaves the Starliner capsule hanging onto a space station with no purpose. \n\n> Therefore, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft will undock from the station early next month—the tentative date, according to a source, is September 6—and attempt to make an autonomous return to Earth and land in a desert in the southwestern United States.\n\nBoeing wants the Starliner back to see if they can learn more about what went wrong, but it's not entirely clear whether its software is capable of an autonomous precision deorbit.\n\nSince NASA are aiming for an \"early September\" undocking, this question asks whether it will happen in the first half of September.", "resolution_criteria": "If credible sources report that Starliner has undocked from the ISS before September 16, 2024, this question resolves as **Yes** Otherwise it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27797, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725710658.96127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725710658.96127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9857119469183153 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.028841894683954285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00902096530357109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05870557476045682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07538866801196019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017206765638407475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08496097501576635, 0.0, 0.06665641869459375, 0.01414047269109762, 0.024521526059856833, 0.020655434800179992, 0.13443902934195334, 0.7328516007857455, 0.18119093168767203, 10.463637842908716 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.321946073105417, "coverage": 0.481343377833185, "baseline_score": 39.87542853689133, "spot_peer_score": 31.6207778447985, "peer_archived_score": 12.321946073105417, "baseline_archived_score": 39.87542853689133, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.6207778447985 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725660282.01656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725660282.01656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06622206803464015, 0.9337779319653599 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, [according to The Economist](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/08/22/nasa-insists-that-two-astronauts-are-not-stranded-in-space):\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/):\n\n> Instead, the agency has asked SpaceX to use its Crew Dragon spacecraft to fly astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams back to Earth. \n>\n> [...] no earlier than September 24, a Crew Dragon spacecraft will launch with two astronauts to the space station with two empty seats. Wilmore and Williams will join these two Crew-9 astronauts for their previously scheduled six-month increment on the space station. 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This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if, before September 30, 2024, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. 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This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.\n" }, { "id": 27790, "title": "Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-openai-announce-gpt-5-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:52.191322Z", "published_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.729736Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27790, "title": "Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:52.191322Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T17:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 13, 2024, OpenAI announced its latest flagship model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) family, GPT-4o. Please find its product announcement [here](https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI publishes a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) announcing the existence of GPT-5. Otherwise it resolves as **No**. Metaculus admins will be consulted should there be any ambiguity. ", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question GPT-5 will be considered to exist if the document published by OpenAI describes some performance results from GPT-5 or states that GPT-5 has been created. A reference to progress in training or developing GPT-5 would not qualify on its own. If OpenAI publishes some performance results from GPT-5 and states that GPT-5 is still undergoing some form of training or testing this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* The model must be announced by OpenAI, or any entity which legally acquires or merges with OpenAI. 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