Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2160
{ "count": 5960, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2180", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2140", "results": [ { "id": 27789, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bubble-in-the-magnificent-seven-pop-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:52.030106Z", "published_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.178002Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27789, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:52.030106Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-28T12:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if at any point between now and before September 30, 2024, shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high.\n\nThe question shall be resolved by using the daily closing share prices available from [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/) under the 'historical data' tab or, at the discretion of Metaculus admins, any other credible source of share price data.\n\nWhatever data source is used should be adjusted for share splits, so that this question does not resolve positive just because a few of the Magnificent Seven decide to do a stock split (ie offer N new shares for each old share).\n", "fine_print": "In case the text above isn't clear enough, an example: If Stock X's all-time high is $1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below $500.\n\nPositive resolution requires that at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks close down >50% from their all time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes, but only counts as one out of the seven companies. Alphabet counts if either of its two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) is at least 50% below its all-time high.\n\nSo if GOOG is down 51% and GOOGL is down 49% and 3 other stocks in the Magnificent Seven are down >50% then this question resolves positively.\n", "post_id": 27789, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725027366.117633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725027366.117633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.26766946596181374 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.8688341374219687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.131983122120673, 0.41588412507835687, 0.6257872328778666, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.8180343785766591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1185990924126554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28169808588910955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725027366.156176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725027366.156176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8305710327856207, 0.16942896721437925 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow." }, { "id": 27788, "title": "Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024? ", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tesla-increase-its-deliveries-in-q3-2024-compared-with-q2-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:51.803779Z", "published_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.138133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27788, "title": "Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024? ", "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:51.803779Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 443,956 vehicles delivered for the third quarter of 2024. If it reports deliveries of 443,956 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected October 2, 2024. If Tesla does not report these numbers before October 16, 2024, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 27788, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725027389.446215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725027389.446215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.375, 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.5848462496429597 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3241864722294797, 0.0, 1.1316375000948755, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.20851081619995687, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.34826582183156496, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.4837049328962416, 0.0, 0.14665725141528196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.13771726112204985, 1.1164311717092978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1982229731213139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 32.19280948873624, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 32.19280948873624 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725027389.475668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725027389.475668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4106886478517845, 0.5893113521482155 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024." }, { "id": 27783, "title": "Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?", "short_title": "Will the Keys to the WH be correct or not?", "url_title": "Will the Keys to the WH be correct or not?", "slug": "will-the-keys-to-the-wh-be-correct-or-not", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 124170, "username": "Skoogeer" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-28T23:29:04.250653Z", "published_at": "2024-09-03T13:28:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.216959Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-03T13:28:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T23:29:04.250000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T23:29:04.250000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T01:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T13:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27783, "title": "Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T23:29:04.250653Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T13:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T07:16:06.425000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T07:16:06.425000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T01:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T01:03:27.070981Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T23:29:04.250000Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T23:29:04.250000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dr. Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to to the Whitehouse” model has predicted most if not all of the presidential election winners in the last 40 years. Despite this track record of success, his model is not the only robust election prediction model and in 2024, the circumstances in America can only be described as “unique”. Will this be the year in which his model fails?\n\nFor more information about the Keys including their past performance, please see Wikipedia: [The Keys to the White House](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House)\n\nSee also: \n\n- The [13 Keys Tracker](https://www.13keystracker.com/)\n- [My prediction is COMING SOON! | Lichtman Live #70](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UUi73VOKR8) - Lichtman says he will make his final prediction \"within a week give or take a day or two of Labor Day.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the following two events occur: \n\n1. Dr. Allan Lichtman makes a prediction about the 2024 US Presidential Election, specifically the winner as measured by apportioned electoral college votes won. The prediction is scheduled to be announced by Dr. Lichtman on his [YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/@AllanLichtmanYouTube) after September 2, 2024 and before October 1, 2024. \n\n2. Lichtman's prediction is correct.\n\nIf Lichtman's prediction of the electoral college winner of the US Presidential Election turns out to be incorrect, this question resolves as **No**. \n\nIf Lichtman does not make his prediction before October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "Since 2016, Dr. Lichtman has been predicting the electoral college outcome rather than the popular vote outcome. Therefore this question will resolve based on the electoral college outcome and whether it is consistent with Lichtman’s stated prediction. If for some reason Dr. Lichtman changes his mind and predicts something else such as the popular vote outcome, then this question will be **Annulled**.\n\nLichtman's prediction must explicitly state which candidate he expects to win the electoral college. Vague or ambiguous statements will not be considered a valid prediction.\n\nIf a candidate is replaced after Lichtman's prediction but before the election, the question will be annulled.\n\nIn case of a disputed election, resolution will wait until the outcome is clear, and in case of inordinate delays the resolution will use the final electoral college vote counts as of the issuance of Certificates of Ascertainment, which for the 2024 election is [scheduled](https://web.archive.org/web/20240416054143/https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates) for December 11, 2024.\n\nSince Lichtman is predicting the winner of the electoral college, if no candidate wins 270 apportioned electoral votes (such as through a 269-269 tie or a 3rd party candidate winning electoral votes), this means there is no electoral college winner (i.e., the election [leaves the electoral college](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/faq#no270) and is decided by the House of Representatives) and this question will be **annulled**.\n\nPredictions made by Lichtman after September 31, 2024 will be disregarded for purposes of this question.\n\nIf Lichtman chooses an alternative venue to his Youtube channel to make his prediction, such as doing it on a major media interview, that will count as well.", "post_id": 27783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726684963.991065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726684963.991065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42500000000000004, 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.5614416767308278 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1353323549180145, 0.1296267078906556, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7544929742804047, 1.3328907457415127, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 1.1051755743490974, 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1986890619035386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08890793817425732 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -21.506645370265996, "peer_score": 29.02169881896072, "coverage": 0.9944567128663189, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9944567128663189, "spot_peer_score": 40.55056036761967, "baseline_archived_score": -21.506645370265996, "peer_archived_score": 29.02169881896072, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.55056036761967 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726820394.459669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726820394.459669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5503337384670408, 0.44966626153295924 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dr. Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to to the Whitehouse” model has predicted most if not all of the presidential election winners in the last 40 years. Despite this track record of success, his model is not the only robust election prediction model and in 2024, the circumstances in America can only be described as “unique”. Will this be the year in which his model fails?\n\nFor more information about the Keys including their past performance, please see Wikipedia: [The Keys to the White House](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House)\n\nSee also: \n\n- The [13 Keys Tracker](https://www.13keystracker.com/)\n- [My prediction is COMING SOON! | Lichtman Live #70](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UUi73VOKR8) - Lichtman says he will make his final prediction \"within a week give or take a day or two of Labor Day.\"" }, { "id": 27763, "title": "Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?", "short_title": "drop in AI workers by 2027", "url_title": "drop in AI workers by 2027", "slug": "drop-in-ai-workers-by-2027", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T21:21:30.934241Z", "published_at": "2025-03-06T20:47:49.426670Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.715791Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T19:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-13T19:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-24T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-24T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-24T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is a mirror of Zvi’s Manifold question: “[Will we develop Leopold’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ by end of 2027?](https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-develop-leopolds-dropin-rem)”_\n\nIn “[Situational Awareness](https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf)”, Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that there will be “drop-in remote [AI] workers” by the end of 2027, and that this will have huge effects on the world. This question is about Aschenbrenner’s prediction for _when_ drop-in workers will appear. On the question of _what_ effects such AI workers would have, Zvi [writes](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b8u6nF5GAb6Ecttev/the-leopold-model-analysis-and-reactions#Part_2__Where_I_Agree_and_Disagree):\n\n> Would a drop-in remote worker capable of AI research lead to at least a soft takeoff and a world transformation if it happened? As constructed it seems hard for this to be false? There are various values of ‘slow’ but broadened to within a few years and for now setting aside possibilities like physical fights over compute or existential risks this seems like a 90% shot.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves in line with how Zvi resolves the [corresponding Manifold market](https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-develop-leopolds-dropin-rem). Copying Zvi’s resolution text from over there:\n\n> Resolves to YES if we have public knowledge by 12/24/27 of a company or other entity having created something that roughly equates to the 'drop-in remote worker' described in the paper Situational Awareness, or is otherwise similarly or more capable. It need not be available to the public, if it is being used only internally.\n> \n> Resolves to NO if this is not the case.\n> \n> If Leopold Aschenbrenner says this did or did not happen I will abide by his observation. If he does not do so, I will use my best judgment.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27763, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756329078.766358, "end_time": 1759108497.362, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756329078.766358, "end_time": 1759108497.362, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6156432751046916 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is a mirror of Zvi’s Manifold question: “[Will we develop Leopold’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ by end of 2027?](https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-develop-leopolds-dropin-rem)”_\n\nIn “[Situational Awareness](https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf)”, Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that there will be “drop-in remote [AI] workers” by the end of 2027, and that this will have huge effects on the world. This question is about Aschenbrenner’s prediction for _when_ drop-in workers will appear. On the question of _what_ effects such AI workers would have, Zvi [writes](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b8u6nF5GAb6Ecttev/the-leopold-model-analysis-and-reactions#Part_2__Where_I_Agree_and_Disagree):\n\n> Would a drop-in remote worker capable of AI research lead to at least a soft takeoff and a world transformation if it happened? As constructed it seems hard for this to be false? There are various values of ‘slow’ but broadened to within a few years and for now setting aside possibilities like physical fights over compute or existential risks this seems like a 90% shot." }, { "id": 27761, "title": "Will an AI lab buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?", "short_title": "ai lab aluminum 2030", "url_title": "ai lab aluminum 2030", "slug": "ai-lab-aluminum-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T20:38:10.246679Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:17:04.615376Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-07T14:48:07.224801Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-08T14:35:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3575, "type": "question_series", "name": "Situational Awareness", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/situational-awareness-gpt-people-intelligence.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-31T23:00:51Z", "close_date": "2030-01-02T12:00:51Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-28T21:40:52.040555Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:17:04.920510Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3575, "type": "question_series", "name": "Situational Awareness", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/situational-awareness-gpt-people-intelligence.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-31T23:00:51Z", "close_date": "2030-01-02T12:00:51Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-28T21:40:52.040555Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:17:04.920510Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27761, "title": "Will an AI lab buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T20:38:10.246679Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T14:35:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In “[Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead](https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf)”, Leopold Aschenbrenner wonders about whether leading AI labs, in need of electricity to train their ever-larger models, will start buying aluminium smelting companies (not because AI labs have any interest in aluminium, but simply to acquire the power contracts that these alumiumium companies hold).\n\n> Probably the single biggest constraint on the supply-side will be power. Already, at nearer-term scales (1GW/2026 and especially 10GW/2028), power has become the binding constraint: there simply isn’t much spare capacity, and power contracts are usually long-term locked-in. And building, say, a new gigawatt-class nuclear power plant takes a decade. (I’ll wonder when we’ll start seeing things like tech companies buying aluminum smelting companies for their gigawatt-class power contracts.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, at least one company in the AI industry buys an aluminum smelting company, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27761, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757722614.453489, "end_time": 1761412543.600103, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757722614.453489, "end_time": 1761412543.600103, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.19608031958302652 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6349304383628325, 2.2772405123654504, 1.3395652219341627, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In “[Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead](https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf)”, Leopold Aschenbrenner wonders about whether leading AI labs, in need of electricity to train their ever-larger models, will start buying aluminium smelting companies (not because AI labs have any interest in aluminium, but simply to acquire the power contracts that these alumiumium companies hold).\n\n> Probably the single biggest constraint on the supply-side will be power. Already, at nearer-term scales (1GW/2026 and especially 10GW/2028), power has become the binding constraint: there simply isn’t much spare capacity, and power contracts are usually long-term locked-in. And building, say, a new gigawatt-class nuclear power plant takes a decade. (I’ll wonder when we’ll start seeing things like tech companies buying aluminum smelting companies for their gigawatt-class power contracts.)" }, { "id": 27749, "title": "Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-alireza-firouzja-win-the-speed-chess-championship-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:05.230791Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.182405Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27749, "title": "Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:05.230791Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Alireza Firouzja wins the Speed Chess Championship 2024 tournament, according to the [official results](https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/results) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If the winner is not known before October 1, 2024 (for example due to the remainder of the tournament being cancelled or postponed for any reason), this question will resolve **No**.", "post_id": 27749, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113860.388984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33333333333333337 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113860.388984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33333333333333337 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7625, 0.2375 ], "means": [ 0.24654102057873065 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5368042366737084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 2.2338995600236142, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.704478431100838, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.692838069357762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8229792293006739, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.5608812398816437, 0.11525585627893538, 1.3709261658551304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 60.88092426755239, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.88092426755239 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113860.407987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113860.407987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8689337469157186, 0.1310662530842815 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat." }, { "id": 27748, "title": "Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-hans-niemann-win-the-speed-chess-championship-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.810720Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.212885Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27748, "title": "Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.810720Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Hans Niemann wins the Speed Chess Championship 2024 tournament, according to the [official results](https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/results) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If the winner is not known before October 1, 2024 (for example due to the remainder of the tournament being cancelled or postponed for any reason), this question will resolve **No**.", "post_id": 27748, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113893.429161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.075 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2125 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113893.429161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.075 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2125 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1538767056617427 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.6753507208774424, 0.6091619622184999, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.21228082485103633, 0.22395086513830598, 0.4071284061385835, 0.0, 1.2593907560641728, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.24357627433663354, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.343186604670561, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2184360075254426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379815430455371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 81.55754288625727, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 81.55754288625727 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113893.458317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113893.458317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9688303235670251, 0.031169676432974806 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat." }, { "id": 27747, "title": "Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-hikaru-nakamura-win-the-speed-chess-championship-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.704776Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.579871Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27747, "title": "Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.704776Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Hikaru Nakamura wins the Speed Chess Championship 2024 tournament, according to the [official results](https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/results) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If the winner is not known before October 1, 2024 (for example due to the remainder of the tournament being cancelled or postponed for any reason), this question will resolve **No**.", "post_id": 27747, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113879.04012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113879.04012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.427856793412594 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2184439492892326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.4740774240660729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 1.8706671022169055, 0.22400851848619524, 1.6617437916232904, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.12075682492329762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284764, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284764 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113879.065926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113879.065926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5871428326952114, 0.4128571673047886 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat." }, { "id": 27746, "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-magnus-carlsen-win-the-speed-chess-championship-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.594884Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.558819Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27746, "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.594884Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Magnus Carlsen wins the Speed Chess Championship 2024 tournament, according to the [official results](https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/results) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If the winner is not known before October 1, 2024 (for example due to the remainder of the tournament being cancelled or postponed for any reason), this question will resolve **No**.", "post_id": 27746, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113844.438213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113844.438213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5554527142929121 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5368042366737084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3569457294166105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.3857521552669111, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 1.023631498669224, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.04842515677234604, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0839758874887769, 0.5608812398816437, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.7704423568149963, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113844.461651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113844.461651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5211166662612828, 0.47888333373871717 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat." }, { "id": 27745, "title": "Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-taylor-swift-publicly-endorse-kamala-harris-for-president-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.491700Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.986102Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27745, "title": "Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.491700Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T12:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to sources close to Taylor Swift, the popular singer is [reportedly preparing](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/taylor-swift-ready-to-endorse-kamala-harris-within-she-wants-strong-woman-president-101724633030603.html) to endorse Kamala Harris for president within the next four to six weeks as the 2024 US presidential election campaign intensifies. Swift, who has a history of supporting the Democratic Party, is said to be driven by her desire to see a strong woman in the White House.\n\nDuring the 2020 election, Swift supported the Biden-Harris ticket, and her endorsement is considered more likely to go to Harris than to Donald Trump, whom she previously wanted to vote out. Swift's endorsement could have a significant impact on the election, as her previous 'go vote' appeal led to a surge in youth voter turnout.\n\nSources claim that Swift is excited about the prospect of Harris becoming the first female president in U.S. history and sees her as a unifying figure who will address the issues people face and excel at running the country.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Taylor Swift publicly endorses Kamala Harris for president through an official statement, social media post, or public appearance, before October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM EDT.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if Taylor Swift does not publicly endorse Kamala Harris before the specified date and time, or if she endorses another candidate.", "fine_print": "- The endorsement must be a clear, unambiguous statement of support for Kamala Harris's presidential campaign. Vague statements or implications of support will not count. Reports which describe Swift as \"endorsing\" Harris or similar should suffice, or reports which include quotes from Swift saying unambiguously that she intends to vote for Harris would also count.\n\n- The endorsement must come directly from Taylor Swift or her official representatives. Statements from anonymous sources or speculation will not be considered. Reports that she has told people privately that she will vote for Harris will not count for the purpose of this question. \n\n- If Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris after October 1, 2024, or if she does not endorse any candidate, the question will still resolve as \"No\".\n\n- Announcing that she will vote for Harris or is encouraging other people to vote for Harris will count as an endorsement.\n\n- In the event that Kamala Harris withdraws from the presidential race or is not the Democratic nominee, the question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 27745, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113910.007478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5700000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113910.007478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5700000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6157797088191636 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10749907588421219, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30337741279819996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.527677027563428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5066024232909556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0594907259167377, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3661213002199428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113910.032992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113910.032992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.46266009856133716, 0.5373399014386628 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to sources close to Taylor Swift, the popular singer is [reportedly preparing](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/taylor-swift-ready-to-endorse-kamala-harris-within-she-wants-strong-woman-president-101724633030603.html) to endorse Kamala Harris for president within the next four to six weeks as the 2024 US presidential election campaign intensifies. Swift, who has a history of supporting the Democratic Party, is said to be driven by her desire to see a strong woman in the White House.\n\nDuring the 2020 election, Swift supported the Biden-Harris ticket, and her endorsement is considered more likely to go to Harris than to Donald Trump, whom she previously wanted to vote out. Swift's endorsement could have a significant impact on the election, as her previous 'go vote' appeal led to a surge in youth voter turnout.\n\nSources claim that Swift is excited about the prospect of Harris becoming the first female president in U.S. history and sees her as a unifying figure who will address the issues people face and excel at running the country." }, { "id": 27744, "title": "Will the Russian 2024 autumn draft demobilization start on time?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-russian-2024-autumn-draft-demobilization-start-on-time", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.307166Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.045406Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27744, "title": "Will the Russian 2024 autumn draft demobilization start on time?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.307166Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia is using a mixed policy in its army, with most troops being contract soldiers, but still maintaining a conscript draft which lasts for 1 year, and comes in two waves: Spring and Autumn. For [legal and political reasons](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-signs-decree-spring-military-conscription-2024-03-31/), conscripts are not being used in Russian invasion in Ukraine, and mostly guard the border. With the recent Ukrainian invasion in Russia, however, there are multiple credible reports of conscripts being under fire, maintaining defensive fortifications against Ukrainian forces, or being captured. Notably, only a small portion of contract troops were withdrawn from other fronts, and it is questionable if Russia can defend its border without using conscripts and conducting another wave of mobilization.\n\nConscripts that were drafted last Autumn are to be discharged this Autumn. This is regulated by presidential decrees, usually published in the last days of September, and specifying that discharge should start on October 1. Last year, the decree was published on [September 29](https://rg.ru/documents/2023/09/29/prezident-ukaz735-site-dok.html) and it is a rule rather than exception. Demobilization usually lasts for several months, while Spring conscripts are being sent from training centers to positions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a presidential decree for demobilization of conscripts is issued before October 1, 2024, and said decree mentions that demobilization must start not later than October 7, 2024. If no presidential decree about demobilization is issued on time, or demobilization is postponed to later date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "All presidential decrees are required to be published in the Russian state newspaper [Rossiyskaya Gazeta (RG)](https://rg.ru/) by law, so it may be used as credible source, if regular [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) do not report on it. Presidential decrees can also be found in the [Kremlin bank of documents](https://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/page/1).", "post_id": 27744, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113826.517965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.638 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113826.517965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.638 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.688656119516385 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8506610839575175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0902215738421042, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5950100330818252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1495126049949962, 0.8094266714872985, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4621570379664766, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10034559348601702, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.021585930219435643, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113826.539256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113826.539256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3530070553394761, 0.6469929446605239 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia is using a mixed policy in its army, with most troops being contract soldiers, but still maintaining a conscript draft which lasts for 1 year, and comes in two waves: Spring and Autumn. For [legal and political reasons](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-signs-decree-spring-military-conscription-2024-03-31/), conscripts are not being used in Russian invasion in Ukraine, and mostly guard the border. With the recent Ukrainian invasion in Russia, however, there are multiple credible reports of conscripts being under fire, maintaining defensive fortifications against Ukrainian forces, or being captured. Notably, only a small portion of contract troops were withdrawn from other fronts, and it is questionable if Russia can defend its border without using conscripts and conducting another wave of mobilization.\n\nConscripts that were drafted last Autumn are to be discharged this Autumn. This is regulated by presidential decrees, usually published in the last days of September, and specifying that discharge should start on October 1. Last year, the decree was published on [September 29](https://rg.ru/documents/2023/09/29/prezident-ukaz735-site-dok.html) and it is a rule rather than exception. Demobilization usually lasts for several months, while Spring conscripts are being sent from training centers to positions." }, { "id": 27733, "title": "Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-us-presidential-debate-between-donald-trump-and-kamala-harris-held-on-september-10-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:22:06.128991Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.452945Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", 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"label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ABC News [is scheduled](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/next-biden-trump-presidential-debate-september-abc/story?id=111408116) to host the 2nd and final presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. \"World News Tonight\" anchor David Muir and ABC News Live Prime anchor Linsey Davis are slated to moderate the debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, with final rules still to be determined, and the two campaigns reportedly [clashing](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4847464-trump-harris-debate-mic-dispute/) over whether microphones would be muted.\n\nOn August 26, 2024, Trump [suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/26/trump-harris-debate-abc/) he may skip the debate, posting on social media: \n\n>I watched ABC FAKE NEWS this morning, both lightweight reporter Jonathan Carl’s (K?) ridiculous and biased interview of Tom Cotton (who was fantastic!), and their so-called Panel of Trump Haters, and I ask, why would I do the Debate against Kamala Harris on that network?\n\nFor its part the Harris campaign has [remained in favor](https://deadline.com/2024/08/trump-harris-presidential-debate-abc-news-1236050101/) of the debate despite the current disputes over the rules.\n\nOn August 27, 2024, Trump posted on Truth Social saying he had [reached an agreement](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-gives-debate-update-kamala-harris-1945130) with Harris for a debate on September 10, though the post disparaged the debate host, ABC News, saying\n\n>It will be Broadcast Live on ABC FAKE NEWS, by far the nastiest and most unfair newscaster in the business. . .\n\nHistorically with debates involving Trump, the presidential debate scheduled for October 15, 2020 [was cancelled](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/09/politics/second-presidential-debate-canceled/index.html), as was a presidential primary [debate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Republican_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums#March_21,_2016_%E2%80%93_Salt_Lake_City,_Utah) originally scheduled for March 21, 2016.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a formal, live presidential debate which includes both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris takes place on September 10, 2024.\n\nIf there is no such debate on that exact date, whether because it has been rescheduled, canceled, Harris or Trump have declined to participate, or for any other reason, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "A debate is [currently scheduled](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-is-second-presidential-debate-2024/) for 9 PM Eastern Time on September 10, 2024, hosted by ABC News. Any other time or host would count, however, as long as the debate is held on that date.\n\nA debate that begins on September 9, 2024 or ends on September 11, 2024 ([Eastern Time](https://time.is/ET)) will count, as long as any portion of it takes place on September 10, 2024.\n\nPlease note that this must be a presidential debate for it to count. Therefore if either Harris or Trump is no longer the Democratic or Republican presidential nominee, respectively, on September 10, 2024 then this question resolves as No.\n\nA qualifying debate must be a live, formal event specifically billed as a presidential debate between the Democratic and Republican nominees for president in the 2024 US election.\n\nBoth Harris and Trump as the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, respectively, must participate in the debate, responding to each other and/or moderator questions in real time. The presence of third-party candidates does not disqualify the debate as long as both Harris and Trump are present. If either Trump or Harris is absent from the debate, regardless of the reason for or presence of third-party candidates, the question will resolve as No.\n\nThe debate may be conducted in person or virtually, as long as both candidates are participating live and simultaneously. Pre-recorded video statements or responses do not count as participation in a live debate.\n\nThe debate does not need to complete its scheduled duration; it is sufficient for the debate to start with both Trump and Harris participating live.\n\nAlternative events, such as separate town hall interviews or forums where candidates do not directly engage with each other, will not count as a debate for the purposes of this question.", "post_id": 27733, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724940949.223408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6409999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.7250000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724940949.223408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6409999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.7250000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.2749999999999999, 0.7250000000000001 ], "means": [ 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ABC News [is scheduled](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/next-biden-trump-presidential-debate-september-abc/story?id=111408116) to host the 2nd and final presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. \"World News Tonight\" anchor David Muir and ABC News Live Prime anchor Linsey Davis are slated to moderate the debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, with final rules still to be determined, and the two campaigns reportedly [clashing](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4847464-trump-harris-debate-mic-dispute/) over whether microphones would be muted.\n\nOn August 26, 2024, Trump [suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/26/trump-harris-debate-abc/) he may skip the debate, posting on social media: \n\n>I watched ABC FAKE NEWS this morning, both lightweight reporter Jonathan Carl’s (K?) ridiculous and biased interview of Tom Cotton (who was fantastic!), and their so-called Panel of Trump Haters, and I ask, why would I do the Debate against Kamala Harris on that network?\n\nFor its part the Harris campaign has [remained in favor](https://deadline.com/2024/08/trump-harris-presidential-debate-abc-news-1236050101/) of the debate despite the current disputes over the rules.\n\nOn August 27, 2024, Trump posted on Truth Social saying he had [reached an agreement](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-gives-debate-update-kamala-harris-1945130) with Harris for a debate on September 10, though the post disparaged the debate host, ABC News, saying\n\n>It will be Broadcast Live on ABC FAKE NEWS, by far the nastiest and most unfair newscaster in the business. . .\n\nHistorically with debates involving Trump, the presidential debate scheduled for October 15, 2020 [was cancelled](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/09/politics/second-presidential-debate-canceled/index.html), as was a presidential primary [debate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Republican_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums#March_21,_2016_%E2%80%93_Salt_Lake_City,_Utah) originally scheduled for March 21, 2016." }, { "id": 27732, "title": "Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-another-chinese-military-aircraft-violate-japanese-territorial-airspace-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:22:05.938253Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.556275Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:51:00Z", 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Monday, August 26, 2024, the Japanese Defense Ministry [confirmed](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/26/japan/china-japan-airspace-violation/) that a Chinese military Y-9 intelligence-gathering plane had briefly entered Japanese territory near the Danjo Islands off Nagasaki Prefecture. This incident marked the [first time](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/27/asia/japan-china-military-plane-airspace-violation-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) a Chinese military aircraft was confirmed to have violated Japanese territorial airspace.\n\nIn response to the violation, Japan strongly protested the move, and the Air Self-Defense Force scrambled fighter jets to respond to the incident. The fighter jets reportedly took steps such as \"issuing warnings,\" but no weapons or flares were fired.\n\nThis incident has raised concerns about the potential for future violations of Japanese airspace by Chinese military aircraft, as tensions between the two countries remain high due to ongoing territorial disputes and geopolitical rivalries in the region.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, between August 28, 2024, and September 30, 2024 (inclusive), the Japanese Defense Ministry officially states that a Chinese military aircraft has violated Japanese territorial airspace.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if no such violation is stated to have occurred by the Japanese Defense Ministry during the specified time period.", "fine_print": "- The violation must be officially stated to have occurred by the Japanese Defense Ministry through a public statement, press release, or other official communication channels.\n\n- The aircraft involved must be identified as belonging to the Chinese military (People's Liberation Army Air Force, Navy, or other branches).\n\n- The violation must occur within Japanese territorial airspace, as defined by international law (for example, 12 nautical miles out from any of its coastlines) and recognized by the Japanese government.\n\n- Incursions into Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) that do not enter Japanese territorial airspace will not count as violations for the purpose of this question.\n\n- If multiple violations occur during the specified time period, the question will still resolve as \"Yes\".", "post_id": 27732, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724940942.094403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724940942.094403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36995007195400387 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7679490586635602, 0.0, 1.0474822324205468, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 1.2368847303185118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27082389038189786, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9095589489729516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8025954556662902, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44172102988017853, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724940942.134449, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724940942.134449, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6887735036666496, 0.3112264963333505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Monday, August 26, 2024, the Japanese Defense Ministry [confirmed](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/26/japan/china-japan-airspace-violation/) that a Chinese military Y-9 intelligence-gathering plane had briefly entered Japanese territory near the Danjo Islands off Nagasaki Prefecture. This incident marked the [first time](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/27/asia/japan-china-military-plane-airspace-violation-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) a Chinese military aircraft was confirmed to have violated Japanese territorial airspace.\n\nIn response to the violation, Japan strongly protested the move, and the Air Self-Defense Force scrambled fighter jets to respond to the incident. The fighter jets reportedly took steps such as \"issuing warnings,\" but no weapons or flares were fired.\n\nThis incident has raised concerns about the potential for future violations of Japanese airspace by Chinese military aircraft, as tensions between the two countries remain high due to ongoing territorial disputes and geopolitical rivalries in the region." }, { "id": 27723, "title": "Will \"Feelslikeimfallinginlove\" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-feelslikeimfallinginlove-by-coldplay-win-the-award-for-best-rock-at-the-2024-mtv-vmas", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-27T18:59:38.444657Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.010541Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27723, "title": "Will \"Feelslikeimfallinginlove\" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?", "created_at": "2024-08-27T18:59:38.444657Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-12T00:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Notable other nominees are \"Dilemma\" by Green Day, \"Mustang\" by Kings of Leon, and \"Atomic City\" by U2.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if \"Feelslikeimfallinginlove\" by Coldplay wins the Best Rock award at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MTV Video Music Awards\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_MTV_Video_Music_Awards) or other credible sources reporting on this awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for September 10, 2024.", "post_id": 27723, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724941029.252388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724941029.252388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3562835968209817 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8016902507176118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 1.0, 0.577585526399994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5190350621191324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3256481231000958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7010144968986024, 0.0, 1.7722534973671087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.6366480125671327, 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"actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nvidia has not had a layoff event in 2024 according to the resolution source. Although Nvidia has had layoff events in the past, over the years its CEO, Jensen Huang, has publicly stated a strong aversion to layoffs many times. Nvidia is notable for having a reputation of engaging in fewer layoffs compared to its large tech peers. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Nvidia has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Nvidia appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Nvidia is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Nvidia. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. 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From its recent SEC filings: \"At the time of the issuance of the Company’s 2023 third quarter Form 10-Q, conditions existed that raised substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.\"" }, { "id": 27720, "title": "Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jensen-huang-be-in-the-top-10-of-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-on-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-27T18:59:38.061018Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.557002Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27720, "title": "Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-27T18:59:38.061018Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T22:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of Aug 27, 2024, Jensen Huang had a net worth of $112 B according to Forbes. The 10th place ranked Amancio Ortega was listed as having a net worth of $123 B.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Jensen Huang is in the top 10 (ranked 10th or higher) on September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If he is in a tie for 10th, this resolves as **No**. If Huang is in a tie for 9th or better, this will resolve as **Yes**. If the resolution source is unavailable on September 30, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until October 6, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). \n", "post_id": 27720, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724941007.753386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.307 ], "centers": [ 0.36666666666666664 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43200000000000005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724941007.753386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.307 ], "centers": [ 0.36666666666666664 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43200000000000005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6333333333333333, 0.36666666666666664 ], "means": [ 0.36957120527285664 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06395130800982807, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6391388653493315, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3427692223916379, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1953059349544968, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.11180750406153984, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 34.10369178350669, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 34.10369178350669 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724941007.809315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724941007.809315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7646384726598748, 0.23536152734012514 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of Aug 27, 2024, Jensen Huang had a net worth of $112 B according to Forbes. The 10th place ranked Amancio Ortega was listed as having a net worth of $123 B." }, { "id": 27714, "title": "Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?", "short_title": "Will AGI massively boost lab-grown meat?", "url_title": "Will AGI massively boost lab-grown meat?", "slug": "will-agi-massively-boost-lab-grown-meat", "author_id": 196604, "author_username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-27T11:42:04.346462Z", "published_at": "2024-08-27T11:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.555126Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-27T11:50:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2067-12-27T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2068-02-27T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-27T11:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3422, "name": "David Mathers' Community", "type": "community", "slug": "arb", "description": "I am interested in questions around the future of AI, global catastrophic risks, and effective altruism. I'm a researcher for the consultancy <a href=\"https://arbresearch.com/\">Arb</a>, who works mostly within the AI safety and forecasting spaces, as well as a professional forecaster. I'll probably focus mostly on AI questions here.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2_niu19eM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_4.09.50PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 196604, "username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3422, "name": "David Mathers' Community", "type": "community", "slug": "arb", "description": "I am interested in questions around the future of AI, global catastrophic risks, and effective altruism. I'm a researcher for the consultancy <a href=\"https://arbresearch.com/\">Arb</a>, who works mostly within the AI safety and forecasting spaces, as well as a professional forecaster. I'll probably focus mostly on AI questions here.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2_niu19eM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_4.09.50PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 196604, "username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 27714, "title": "Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?", "created_at": "2024-08-27T11:42:04.346462Z", "open_time": "2024-08-27T11:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-30T11:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-30T11:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2068-02-27T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2067-12-27T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2067-12-27T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sometimes people predict that if we achieved AI that could automate all or almost all current human labour we could see very rapid economic growth (>15% a year) and scientific advancement. I am interested in whether IF AI turbocharges growth in this manner, we will see factory farming rapidly become technologically obsolete. (Mostly because I think factory farming is a moral catastrophe.) I've chosen to operationalize this as whether 10 years after worldwide economic growth first hits >15%, >50% of meat purchased in the US will be lab grown: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat. \nFor background on cultured meat see: https://thecounter.org/lab-grown-cultivated-meat-cost-at-scale/?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw8rW2BhAgEiwAoRO5rMOuoWDn_XtH4SJdcVvn9KvVTmw6FxqAChKQ54Lwomo7h-DgWynfkhoCMlQQAvD_BwE \n\nhttps://asteriskmag.com/issues/02/is-cultivated-meat-for-real#:~:text=Scaling%20Up%20the%20Manufacturing%20Process,cells%20mixed%20in%20a%20liquid.", "resolution_criteria": "If we are 10 years after at least 1 year of >15% growth in world GPD and lab-grown meat has over 50% market share in $ in the US, I will resolve this yes. If we are 10 years after 1 year of >15% world GDP growth and lab-grown meat has under 50% US market share I will resolve no. If we never see >15% growth in world GPD, this will remain unresolved. For worldwide growth rate I will use this Statistia page: https://www.statista.com/statistics/273951/growth-of-the-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/#:~:text=In%20most%20years%20since%201980,around%203%20percent%20in%202029. (If the page disappears, I will look for figures from the IMF). I don't currently have any resolution source in mind for the proportion of meat sold that is lab-grown: I will use whatever reasonable source for this I can find if needed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27714, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743983936.900725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743983936.900725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3203455125630052 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.1237470244838175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34012196105922055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287776.794292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287776.794292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6262352334513516, 0.37376476654864843 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sometimes people predict that if we achieved AI that could automate all or almost all current human labour we could see very rapid economic growth (>15% a year) and scientific advancement. I am interested in whether IF AI turbocharges growth in this manner, we will see factory farming rapidly become technologically obsolete. (Mostly because I think factory farming is a moral catastrophe.) I've chosen to operationalize this as whether 10 years after worldwide economic growth first hits >15%, >50% of meat purchased in the US will be lab grown: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat. \nFor background on cultured meat see: https://thecounter.org/lab-grown-cultivated-meat-cost-at-scale/?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw8rW2BhAgEiwAoRO5rMOuoWDn_XtH4SJdcVvn9KvVTmw6FxqAChKQ54Lwomo7h-DgWynfkhoCMlQQAvD_BwE \n\nhttps://asteriskmag.com/issues/02/is-cultivated-meat-for-real#:~:text=Scaling%20Up%20the%20Manufacturing%20Process,cells%20mixed%20in%20a%20liquid." }, { "id": 27713, "title": "Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Chinese aircraft violates Japanese airspace?", "url_title": "Chinese aircraft violates Japanese airspace?", "slug": "chinese-aircraft-violates-japanese-airspace", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-27T09:39:21.793465Z", 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"2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Monday, August 26, 2024, the Japanese Defense Ministry [confirmed](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/26/japan/china-japan-airspace-violation/) that a Chinese military Y-9 intelligence-gathering plane had briefly entered Japanese territory near the Danjo Islands off Nagasaki Prefecture. This incident marked the [first time](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/27/asia/japan-china-military-plane-airspace-violation-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) a Chinese military aircraft was confirmed to have violated Japanese territorial airspace.\n\nIn response to the violation, Japan strongly protested the move, and the Air Self-Defense Force scrambled fighter jets to respond to the incident. The fighter jets reportedly took steps such as \"issuing warnings,\" but no weapons or flares were fired.\n\nThis incident has raised concerns about the potential for future violations of Japanese airspace by Chinese military aircraft, as tensions between the two countries remain high due to ongoing territorial disputes and geopolitical rivalries in the region.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, between August 28, 2024, and September 30, 2024 (inclusive), the Japanese Defense Ministry officially states that a Chinese military aircraft has violated Japanese territorial airspace.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if no such violation is stated to have occurred by the Japanese Defense Ministry during the specified time period.", "fine_print": "- The violation must be officially stated to have occurred by the Japanese Defense Ministry through a public statement, press release, or other official communication channels.\n\n- The aircraft involved must be identified as belonging to the Chinese military (People's Liberation Army Air Force, Navy, or other branches).\n\n- The violation must occur within Japanese territorial airspace, as defined by international law (for example, 12 nautical miles out from any of its coastlines) and recognized by the Japanese government.\n\n- Incursions into Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) that do not enter Japanese territorial airspace will not count as violations for the purpose of this question.\n\n- If multiple violations occur during the specified time period, the question will still resolve as \"Yes\".", "post_id": 27713, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754918.18384, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754918.18384, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.01502510871244049 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.706194253974587, 5.537845486311979, 0.3904744780104372, 0.3906248983650008, 0.008061960629922116, 0.010533797021803945, 0.0, 0.0072248859019448525, 0.01352731712145787, 0.01712440175196844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015244917867552703, 0.0012381970298981316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2588272158716479, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005954758208044591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.033589175770808, "coverage": 0.9999152677508775, "baseline_score": 95.27871836339102, "spot_peer_score": 17.634125699681334, "peer_archived_score": 6.033589175770808, "baseline_archived_score": 95.27871836339102, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.634125699681334 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754918.255028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754918.255028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 264, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Monday, August 26, 2024, the Japanese Defense Ministry [confirmed](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/26/japan/china-japan-airspace-violation/) that a Chinese military Y-9 intelligence-gathering plane had briefly entered Japanese territory near the Danjo Islands off Nagasaki Prefecture. This incident marked the [first time](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/27/asia/japan-china-military-plane-airspace-violation-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) a Chinese military aircraft was confirmed to have violated Japanese territorial airspace.\n\nIn response to the violation, Japan strongly protested the move, and the Air Self-Defense Force scrambled fighter jets to respond to the incident. The fighter jets reportedly took steps such as \"issuing warnings,\" but no weapons or flares were fired.\n\nThis incident has raised concerns about the potential for future violations of Japanese airspace by Chinese military aircraft, as tensions between the two countries remain high due to ongoing territorial disputes and geopolitical rivalries in the region." }, { "id": 27711, "title": "Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris", "url_title": "Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris", "slug": "taylor-swifts-endorsement-of-kamala-harris", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-27T09:33:35.803308Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:11.976828Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": 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"2024-09-11T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-11T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to sources close to Taylor Swift, the popular singer is [reportedly preparing](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/taylor-swift-ready-to-endorse-kamala-harris-within-she-wants-strong-woman-president-101724633030603.html) to endorse Kamala Harris for president within the next four to six weeks as the 2024 US presidential election campaign intensifies. Swift, who has a history of supporting the Democratic Party, is said to be driven by her desire to see a strong woman in the White House.\n\nDuring the 2020 election, Swift supported the Biden-Harris ticket, and her endorsement is considered more likely to go to Harris than to Donald Trump, whom she previously wanted to vote out. Swift's endorsement could have a significant impact on the election, as her previous 'go vote' appeal led to a surge in youth voter turnout.\n\nSources claim that Swift is excited about the prospect of Harris becoming the first female president in U.S. history and sees her as a unifying figure who will address the issues people face and excel at running the country.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Taylor Swift publicly endorses Kamala Harris for president through an official statement, social media post, or public appearance, before October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM EDT.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if Taylor Swift does not publicly endorse Kamala Harris before the specified date and time, or if she endorses another candidate.", "fine_print": "- The endorsement must be a clear, unambiguous statement of support for Kamala Harris's presidential campaign. Vague statements or implications of support will not count. Reports which describe Swift as \"endorsing\" Harris or similar should suffice, or reports which include quotes from Swift saying unambiguously that she intends to vote for Harris would also count.\n\n- The endorsement must come directly from Taylor Swift or her official representatives. Statements from anonymous sources or speculation will not be considered. Reports that she has told people privately that she will vote for Harris will not count for the purpose of this question. \n\n- If Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris after October 1, 2024, or if she does not endorse any candidate, the question will still resolve as \"No\".\n\n- Announcing that she will vote for Harris or is encouraging other people to vote for Harris will count as an endorsement.\n\n- In the event that Kamala Harris withdraws from the presidential race or is not the Democratic nominee, the question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 27711, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726025962.182524, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726025962.182524, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.7261252408136094 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0016771748530350252, 0.1453243449079491, 0.022556935951370632, 0.010692366847123947, 0.0, 0.012499835524601176, 0.003139282596533214, 0.053636441777860235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2535162865173077, 0.0, 0.0156924345478448, 0.0, 0.006526864650835598, 0.6678599602769817, 0.0, 0.1754528861180675, 0.414571236316077, 0.0, 1.7457049010109584, 0.0028433268361718112, 0.0, 0.2153692164022835, 0.0022290332259855368, 0.9770817276112653, 0.11707007356349668, 0.019553963805070133, 0.1713018555835277, 0.0, 0.6983079274097594, 0.0, 0.009110146485231669, 0.2566887375060741, 0.09839387272843594, 0.1970530367518326, 0.0023182354423547605, 0.0, 0.0059866825919037, 0.00987466895005639, 0.07105682390468654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018185587562186818, 0.014559218523516859, 0.0018730169681004513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08745501623158428, 0.14117810888991986, 0.0, 0.00045259954456378565, 0.15524038519457387, 0.004179282557804217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1387312955844609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05710974615261928, 0.001676867802436716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2805179832756555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022189844218063637, 0.0, 0.4380890258355279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.2077347573969934e-05, 0.0006069389582748934, 0.0, 0.0007050588977482321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07305306091906709, 12.432443035635632 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.370321266602233, "coverage": 0.40279133928213734, "baseline_score": -22.631621851804894, "spot_peer_score": -12.47931416377584, "peer_archived_score": 6.370321266602233, "baseline_archived_score": -22.631621851804894, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.47931416377584 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726015139.181413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726015139.181413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9054368920887009, 0.0945631079112991 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 300, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to sources close to Taylor Swift, the popular singer is [reportedly preparing](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/taylor-swift-ready-to-endorse-kamala-harris-within-she-wants-strong-woman-president-101724633030603.html) to endorse Kamala Harris for president within the next four to six weeks as the 2024 US presidential election campaign intensifies. 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