Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2180
{ "count": 6334, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2200", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2160", "results": [ { "id": 29633, "title": "Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on November 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-openais-o1-remain-the-top-llm-in-all-categories-of-chatbot-arena-on-november-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.767568Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.432030Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T23:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29506, "title": "Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on November 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.767568Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T23:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-01T23:14:11.615341Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) (previously hosted on <https://lmsys.org/>) is a [benchmarking platform](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) for large language models (LLMs). It uses an [Elo rating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system) similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Besides general rankings, Chatbot Arena has added various more narrow categories, such as Hard Prompts, Instruction Following, or Math.\n\nIn September 12, 2024, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/o1/) o1, a series of models [trained](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) to use chain of thought to solve complex problems. According to OpenAI, o1 models perform significantly better in math and coding competitions, among other domains. As of October 4, 2024, o1-preview is ranked #1 in all Chatbot Arena categories.\n\nFor further context please see: \n\n- [Chatbot Arena: New models & Elo system update](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-12-07-leaderboard/)\n- [Does style matter? Disentangling style and substance in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-08-28-style-control/)\n- [Introducing Hard Prompts Category in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-05-17-category-hard/)", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves as **Yes** if a single o1 model has the same or higher rank than all non-o1 models in all of the following 9 categories on [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/), on November 30, 2024:\n\n- Overall\n- Overall w/ Style Control\n- Hard Prompts (Overall)\n- Hard Prompts (Overall) w/ Style Control\n- Instruction Following\n- Coding\n- Math\n- Multi-turn\n- Longer Query\n\nIf all o1 models have at least one category in which they are worse than a non-o1 model, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "- For the purposes of this question, a model having no rank in a category means it is worse than all models that have a rank.\n- Other models also being ranked 1 do not affect resolution, as long as a single o1 model is also ranked 1.\n- An OpenAI model counts as an o1 model if it contains \"o1\" in its name on Chatbot Arena.\n- Any categories that are no longer available on Chatbot Arena will not affect resolution, as long as they are fewer than 4. If at least 4 of the aforementioned 9 categories are not available, this question will be **annulled**.\n- Any categories that are renamed but have the same methodology will be considered equivalent for purposes of this question. \n- As of October 4, 2024, the relevant ranks are presented in both the Overview tab and in the Arena tab, by selecting the relevant category and potentially applying the required filter.", "post_id": 29633, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730992995.163562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.633 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7655000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730992995.163562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.633 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7655000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.367, 0.633 ], "means": [ 0.6235784947033923 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1792089906998804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5211633079961315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.825776577380518, 0.8331016997804591, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.08152789174706276, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 38.92194055514826, "peer_score": 8.867455992466825, "coverage": 0.9893127058805139, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9893127058805139, "spot_peer_score": 7.730801167884564, "spot_baseline_score": 34.027740476625425, "baseline_archived_score": 38.92194055514826, "peer_archived_score": 8.867455992466825, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.730801167884564, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 34.027740476625425 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) (previously hosted on <https://lmsys.org/>) is a [benchmarking platform](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) for large language models (LLMs). It uses an [Elo rating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system) similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Besides general rankings, Chatbot Arena has added various more narrow categories, such as Hard Prompts, Instruction Following, or Math.\n\nIn September 12, 2024, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/o1/) o1, a series of models [trained](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) to use chain of thought to solve complex problems. According to OpenAI, o1 models perform significantly better in math and coding competitions, among other domains. As of October 4, 2024, o1-preview is ranked #1 in all Chatbot Arena categories.\n\nFor further context please see: \n\n- [Chatbot Arena: New models & Elo system update](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-12-07-leaderboard/)\n- [Does style matter? Disentangling style and substance in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-08-28-style-control/)\n- [Introducing Hard Prompts Category in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-05-17-category-hard/)" }, { "id": 29632, "title": "Will Mike Tyson have a public boxing match before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-mike-tyson-have-a-public-boxing-match-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.760888Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.184085Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T12:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29505, "title": "Will Mike Tyson have a public boxing match before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.760888Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-17T12:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-17T12:49:35.450109Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Mike Tyson is scheduled to box against Jake Paul on November 15, 2024. However, it has previously been postponed. For more information please see [Wikipedia Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Paul_vs._Mike_Tyson)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to credible sources Mike Tyson has a public boxing match before January 1, 2025. If there are no such reports that this has occured, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29632, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730993032.33442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.644 ], "centers": [ 0.813 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730993032.33442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.644 ], "centers": [ 0.813 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18700000000000006, 0.813 ], "means": [ 0.7000175434581304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6796124580803228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.8703961694503004, 0.5388258452186474, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0898204888317844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.5482739890115875, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.865326963027923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.35148317590848, "peer_score": 17.388036218859448, "coverage": 0.988987342869794, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.988987342869794, "spot_peer_score": 22.599619214140553, "spot_baseline_score": 70.13272574129405, "baseline_archived_score": 73.35148317590848, "peer_archived_score": 17.388036218859448, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.599619214140553, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 70.13272574129405 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, Mike Tyson is scheduled to box against Jake Paul on November 15, 2024. However, it has previously been postponed. For more information please see [Wikipedia Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Paul_vs._Mike_Tyson)" }, { "id": 29631, "title": "Will Atlético Mineiro win the 2024 Copa Libertadores?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-atletico-mineiro-win-the-2024-copa-libertadores", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.756806Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.441416Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-02T14:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29504, "title": "Will Atlético Mineiro win the 2024 Copa Libertadores?", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.756806Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-02T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-02T14:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-02T14:40:47.399583Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Copa Libertadores is South America's top-tier association football championship; the two-legged semifinals for the current tournament take place between October 22nd and 30th, with the single-match final taking place on November 30 at the Monumental stadium in Buenos Aires, Argentina.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Atlético Mineiro is the champion of the 2024 Copa Libertadores.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 29631, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730993045.194356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.512 ], "centers": [ 0.5414512868714325 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57485 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730993045.194356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.512 ], "centers": [ 0.5414512868714325 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57485 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4585487131285675, 0.5414512868714325 ], "means": [ 0.5257084899067094 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8606188147841007, 0.31302422044387057, 0.6091619622184999, 1.0, 1.556797659821875, 0.12237051261030621, 0.8385925994312163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7514948586458795, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -9.385598051500127, "peer_score": -5.428023635818903, "coverage": 0.9886757562833802, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9886757562833802, "spot_peer_score": -5.472589384901878, "spot_baseline_score": -12.485309071602405, "baseline_archived_score": -9.385598051500127, "peer_archived_score": -5.428023635818903, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.472589384901878, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -12.485309071602405 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Copa Libertadores is South America's top-tier association football championship; the two-legged semifinals for the current tournament take place between October 22nd and 30th, with the single-match final taking place on November 30 at the Monumental stadium in Buenos Aires, Argentina." }, { "id": 29630, "title": "On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-december-31-2024-will-exactly-4-us-states-have-waymos-rider-only-ride-hailing-service-available-to-the-general-public", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.751639Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T16:35:53.044899Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29503, "title": "On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?", "created_at": "2024-11-06T13:55:47.751639Z", "open_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T00:37:38Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).\r\n\r\nWaymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles. Since its inception as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, Waymo’s vehicles have logged over 7 million miles of rider-only trips.\r\n\r\nAs of early 2024, Waymo operates its rider-only ride-hailing service in California (San Francisco and Los Angeles) and Arizona (Phoenix), and has announced plans to expand operations to Texas (Austin).\r\n\r\nIn late 2023, Waymo published a [report](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/) claiming that its autonomous vehicles have achieved an 85% reduction in the rate of injury-causing compared to national rates for human-operated cars, highlighting the potential of self-driving cars to reduce crashes caused by human error.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the number of US states, including Washington, D.C., in which fully rider-only ride-hailing trips operated by Waymo are available to the general public on January 1, 2026.\r\n\r\nThe primary resolution source will be Waymo's website, which as of early 2024 includes a [\"Where Can You Go?\"](https://waymo.com/whereyoucango/) page. Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) may also be considered in the event of ambiguity or dispute.", "fine_print": "- \"rider-only\" trip means one in which the only humans in the car are passengers and no human operates the vehicle for the duration of the trip.\r\n- \"Available to the general public\" means that any member of the public is eligible to use the service without first joining a waitlist or having been granted use of the service as part of a limited testing or early access phase.\r\n- \"United States\" means the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Therefore the possible outcome range is 0-51.\r\n- In the event that Waymo's operating status in a given state is ambiguous or disputed, Metaculus admins will resolve the state's status based on the best available information indicating whether, in fact, its autonomous ride-hailing service is publicly available for ride-hailing on January 1, 2026.", "post_id": 29630, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730989716.310274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730989716.310274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.18725737680913804 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.04289084712097685, 0.46591511094643184, 0.0, 0.6168704389308379, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.7511534702699268, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7087024898258387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.8277762550959286, 0.14645117361277293, 0.49919970777631545, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.898038362287616, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.34094896593044, "peer_score": 24.300862075333292, "coverage": 0.9884089846301961, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9884089846301961, "spot_peer_score": 24.359136087101582, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 75.34094896593044, "peer_archived_score": 24.300862075333292, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.359136087101582, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).\r\n\r\nWaymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles. Since its inception as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, Waymo’s vehicles have logged over 7 million miles of rider-only trips.\r\n\r\nAs of early 2024, Waymo operates its rider-only ride-hailing service in California (San Francisco and Los Angeles) and Arizona (Phoenix), and has announced plans to expand operations to Texas (Austin).\r\n\r\nIn late 2023, Waymo published a [report](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/) claiming that its autonomous vehicles have achieved an 85% reduction in the rate of injury-causing compared to national rates for human-operated cars, highlighting the potential of self-driving cars to reduce crashes caused by human error." }, { "id": 29609, "title": "Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?", "short_title": "Will there be major civil unrest in the US before Mar 2025?", "url_title": "Will there be major civil unrest in the US before Mar 2025?", "slug": "will-there-be-major-civil-unrest-in-the-us-before-mar-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-05T20:15:57.411399Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T01:23:20.882208Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.444877Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-06T01:23:20.882206Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T00:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T03:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 29481, "title": "Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-05T20:15:57.411547Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T03:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-10T03:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-10T03:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T00:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-09T00:24:37.123078Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Incidents of [civil unrest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States) are not uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots), during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.\n\nMore recently, in 2020, mass civil unrest occurred in the United States [in response to the killing of George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests). 19 people died, more than 14,000 people were arrested, and insured damages were estimated to be $1-2bn.\n\nIn January 2021, the United States Capitol Building [was stormed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) by partisans as Congress was attempting to certify the electoral college result in the 2020 election. Five people died, and dozens of arrests have been made.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that after 5 November 2024 and before 1 March 2025 rioting or civil unrest in the US leads to either:\n- The deaths of at least 10 people due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n- The arrest of at least 1,000 people by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\nThese counts will be cumulative from November 6th, 2024 to February 28th, 2025, inclusive. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest.", "fine_print": "- For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count.\n- Arrests must also be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest.\n- In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admins may wait up to 1 month after the question's closing date to make a determination.", "post_id": 29609, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740589243.538557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740589243.538557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.04605076927835517 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.175124056072779, 1.6762089056385494, 0.8319082833664146, 0.9004435165981269, 0.03130111324493289, 0.49045215621348803, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.016576386347562713, 0.0, 0.0471123603738702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25654816160742966, 0.0, 0.15094706152387014, 0.17958446928035948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06818282742296448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21373070951070156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07737141401712107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23434107129204243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.25985041710351, "peer_score": 9.980561397317436, "coverage": 0.9992726621760677, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9992726621760677, "spot_peer_score": 6.409243919842521, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 93.25985041710351, "peer_archived_score": 9.980561397317436, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.409243919842521, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Incidents of [civil unrest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States) are not uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots), during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.\n\nMore recently, in 2020, mass civil unrest occurred in the United States [in response to the killing of George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests). 19 people died, more than 14,000 people were arrested, and insured damages were estimated to be $1-2bn.\n\nIn January 2021, the United States Capitol Building [was stormed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) by partisans as Congress was attempting to certify the electoral college result in the 2020 election. Five people died, and dozens of arrests have been made." }, { "id": 29600, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall of Hickory Hollow's ready-to-eat jerky products be closed before December 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usda-posted-recall-of-hickory-hollows-ready-to-eat-jerky-products-be-closed-before-december-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:13.303220Z", "published_at": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.133239Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-02T00:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29472, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall of Hickory Hollow's ready-to-eat jerky products be closed before December 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:13.303220Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-02T00:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-02T00:15:00.933102Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Alabama Media Group on [September 4, 2024](https://www.al.com/life/2024/09/6229-pounds-of-jerky-from-alabama-company-recalled.html), \"Ready-to-eat jerky products from an Alabama-based company are being recalled. The products were shipped to retail locations in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. The products were also sold on the internet. So far, there have been no confirmed reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products, according to the USDA. Anyone concerned about a reaction should contact a healthcare provider.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Hickory Hollow's beef jerky and bacon jerky products produced on various dates between Jan. 19, 2024-Aug. 21, 2024 is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/hickory-hollow-jerky-recalls-ready-eat-jerky-products-produced-without-benefit) is accessed by Metaculus after November 30, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered.", "post_id": 29600, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730906736.956142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.301 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.648711444139289 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730906736.956142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.301 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.648711444139289 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.48980129601056394 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6992767959310259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1842591497596384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7068437030077622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9155678051183026, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.7908180350983325, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.03827985752704741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.7685977471107392, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5223486041889278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 6.549454394944938, "peer_score": 28.2907111059065, "coverage": 0.9979612048963706, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9979612048963706, "spot_peer_score": 20.619678938064023, "spot_baseline_score": -2.914634565951651, "baseline_archived_score": 6.549454394944938, "peer_archived_score": 28.2907111059065, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.619678938064023, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -2.914634565951651 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Alabama Media Group on [September 4, 2024](https://www.al.com/life/2024/09/6229-pounds-of-jerky-from-alabama-company-recalled.html), \"Ready-to-eat jerky products from an Alabama-based company are being recalled. The products were shipped to retail locations in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. The products were also sold on the internet. So far, there have been no confirmed reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products, according to the USDA. Anyone concerned about a reaction should contact a healthcare provider.\"" }, { "id": 29599, "title": "Will Noodles & Co. file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-noodles-co-file-for-bankruptcy-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:13.298784Z", "published_at": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.552145Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29471, "title": "Will Noodles & Co. file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:13.298784Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:14:38.527661Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Noodles & Company, a fast-casual diner founded in 1995, has faced years of negative net income since the pandemic (except for a small profit in 2021), and faces increased debt and interest expenses. The company has recently been [reported](https://www.nrn.com/fast-casual/noodles-company-considers-closing-around-20-underperforming-units) to be evaluating its restaurants and closing certain underperforming locations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Noodles & Company files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. 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A Robinhood spokesperson said it has “no imminent plans to launch this offering.”\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Robinhood Markets, Inc., announces at its blog, which can be accessed through [this link](https://newsroom.aboutrobinhood.com/), that it is launching its own stablecoin. If there is no such announcement posted at that link before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Robinhood's blog will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. 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A Robinhood spokesperson said it has “no imminent plans to launch this offering.”\"" }, { "id": 29593, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume for the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-us-airline-passenger-volume-for-the-tuesday-and-wednesday-before-thanksgiving-2024-be-up-year-over-year-according-to-the-tsa", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:12.959164Z", "published_at": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.849125Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T11:20:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29465, "title": "Will US airline passenger volume for the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?", "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:12.959164Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T11:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-29T11:40:21.198792Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Thanksgiving season is one of the busiest times of the year for travel, and 2024 [is expected](https://www.crossroadstoday.com/lifestyle/the-busiest-travel-days-around-thanksgiving/article_1dc81c6f-58c2-543c-a858-ca738283d6f1.html) to break records..", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving, i.e., November 26 and November 27, 2024, exceed the equivalent Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving in 2023, which was November 21 and November 22, 2023. The resolution source is the TSA checkpoint travel numbers, which can be found at [this link](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes) for 2024. The archived 2023 TSA passenger volume numbers can be found [here](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes/2023).\n\nThe two days of November 21, 2023 and November 22, 2023, had respective passenger numbers of 2,647,461 and 2,741,610, for a total of 5,389,071. Therefore, this question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the period of November 21 and November 22, 2024, exceeds 5,389,071 and resolves as **No** if it is less than or equal to 5,389,071.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the data is posted and accessed by Metaculus Admins. However, if there are delays then resolution will wait up to the end of the quarter to be posted for the time in question. If it has not been posted as of January 7, 2025, when accessed by Admins, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 29593, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730906827.752313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75125 ], "centers": [ 0.825 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730906827.752313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75125 ], "centers": [ 0.825 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.17500000000000004, 0.825 ], "means": [ 0.8111308795861552 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.131983122120673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9259337259932849, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0239512508387385, 0.0, 0.3752426428562578, 0.0, 0.681654212830137, 0.16103927879919655, 0.20522536882886755, 2.2248697956247914, 0.03573243764150962, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.5227118867032451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.08986262772115, "peer_score": 3.143938968185512, "coverage": 0.9920396940630895, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9920396940630895, "spot_peer_score": 4.179909350248359, "spot_baseline_score": 72.2466024471091, "baseline_archived_score": 70.08986262772115, "peer_archived_score": 3.143938968185512, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.179909350248359, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 72.2466024471091 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Thanksgiving season is one of the busiest times of the year for travel, and 2024 [is expected](https://www.crossroadstoday.com/lifestyle/the-busiest-travel-days-around-thanksgiving/article_1dc81c6f-58c2-543c-a858-ca738283d6f1.html) to break records.." }, { "id": 29592, "title": "Will Sadiq Khan cease to be mayor of London before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-sadiq-khan-cease-to-be-mayor-of-london-before-january-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:12.651679Z", "published_at": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.667447Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T03:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Sadiq Kahn ceases to be mayor of London, England, at any point before January 1, 2025, according to the City of London's [official website](https://www.london.gov.uk/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Ceases to be mayor\" is defined as vacating the office and having a permanent successor. Please note that an announcement alone, such as an announcement of not seeking re-election or an intention to vacate the office at a future date, will not count as ceasing to be mayor. Temporarily being unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office of mayor (due to illness or other reasons causing it to be temporary) will also not count for purposes of this question.", "post_id": 29592, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730902601.69392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.029500000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.075 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730902601.69392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.029500000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.075 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.053035782122937226 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4064202383961621, 1.1310189180754984, 1.4481766179878917, 0.0, 2.5055227109934712, 0.42730876877060286, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.7700089586869414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06880116542320096, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.97766114809322, "peer_score": 2.555068342070038, "coverage": 0.9909123665039187, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9909123665039187, "spot_peer_score": 1.788170489468035, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 91.97766114809322, "peer_archived_score": 2.555068342070038, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.788170489468035, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mayor Kahn faces periodic calls to resign, such as from foreign policy analyst and former aide to Margaret Thatcher [Nile Gardner](https://x.com/NileGardiner/status/1834588669149110754) in September 2024. " }, { "id": 29591, "title": "Will the CDC report more than 80% of the tested influenza sequences as influenza A during the 2024-25 season through the week ending Dec 21, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cdc-report-more-than-80-of-the-tested-influenza-sequences-as-influenza-a-during-the-2024-25-season-through-the-week-ending-dec-21-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:12.646686Z", "published_at": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.694025Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T20:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29463, "title": "Will the CDC report more than 80% of the tested influenza sequences as influenza A during the 2024-25 season through the week ending Dec 21, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:12.646686Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T20:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-30T20:33:41.101716Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Influenza pandemics typically [come from](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2928832/) Influenza A, particularly from a sub-type against which much of the human population lacks much immunity. According [to CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses-types.html):\n\n>Currently circulating influenza A(H1N1) viruses are related to the pandemic 2009 H1N1 virus that emerged in the spring of 2009 and caused a flu pandemic ([CDC 2009 H1N1 Flu website](http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/)) These viruses, scientifically called the \"A(H1N1)pdm09 virus,\" and more generally called \"2009 H1N1,\" have continued to circulate seasonally since then and have undergone genetic changes and changes to their [antigenic properties](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/professionals/antigenic.htm) (i.e., the properties of the virus that affect immunity).\n\n>Influenza A(H3N2) viruses also change both genetically and antigenically. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses have formed many separate, genetically different clades in recent years that continue to co-circulate.\n\nFor the 2024-25 flu season, the [trivalent](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/trivalent-vaccines-2024-2025.html) (three-component) vaccine will target two influenza A and one influenza B virus. During the 2023-24 season, 69.2% of positive specimens [were](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html) influenza A, substantially similar to the 69.1% for the week ended ending May 4, 2024, at which time 97% of all positive cases that would be registered for the season had been tested. Among the 25,390 influenza-associated hospitalizations for the season, a disproportionate number (84.6%) were associated with influenza A, as compared with with 14.8% associated with influenza B.\n\nAccording [to CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/overview/index.html):\n\n>All public health and clinical laboratories report each week to CDC the total number of respiratory specimens tested for influenza and the number positive for influenza viruses, along with age or age group of the person, if available. CDC presents data from clinical laboratories that include the weekly total number of specimens tested for influenza, the number of positive influenza tests, and the percent positive by influenza virus type.\n\n>Influenza surveillance data are aggregated according to the week the event (e.g., positive laboratory test, outpatient visit, death) occurred. The week starts on Sunday and ends on the following Saturday. Each surveillance participant is requested to report its data to CDC by Tuesday afternoon of the following week. The data are then downloaded, compiled, and analyzed at CDC. [FluView](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/) and [FluView Interactive](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluviewinteractive.htm) are updated weekly on Fridays. \n\nSince the pandemic, the numbers have been as follows:\n\n### FluView Week 18 (beginning of May) - Influenza A %\n\n| Season | Influenza A % |\n|------------|---------------|\n| 2023-24 | 69.1% |\n| 2022-23 | 98.2% |\n| 2021-22 | 98.4% |\n\nLooking at a wider sweep of history, during the 25 years through the 2023-24 season, 11 had two waves of influenza activity. Among those 11 seasons, 8 of them [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html) their second wave come from influenza B.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the cumulative percentage of Influenza A sequences since September 29, 2024, of all specimens that have tested positive for influenza in clinical laboratories in the United States nationwide, as reported by the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Resolution will be based on the CDC’s first [FluView](https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html) Weekly US Influenza Surveillance Report published that encompasses the entirety of the time period from September 29, 2024, through the week ending Dec 21, 2024.", "fine_print": "Specifically, this question resolves based on the percentage of positive specimens reported by CDC for Clinical Laboratories. For example, in the FluView report for [Week 18 of 2024, ending May 4, 2024](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2023-2024/week18.htm), CDC reported 69.1% of positive specimens as Influenza A, which would have been the resolution number. In the event CDC reports only the raw numbers, the calculation will be the number of positive specimens of Type A divided by the number of positive specimens, multiplied by 100% and then rounded to the nearest tenth. In this example, this is 235,659 divided by 340,899, which rounds to 69.1%.", "post_id": 29591, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730902611.718654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7292104177556211 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8166666666666668 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730902611.718654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7292104177556211 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8166666666666668 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.2707895822443789, 0.7292104177556211 ], "means": [ 0.7222382523543931 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 1.4479138029495204, 0.0, 1.7383665764492922, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.6168704389308379, 0.19954603836803392, 0.36190362529897907, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.7511534702699268, 0.706248820627773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 53.502190310476124, "peer_score": 5.667206323417102, "coverage": 0.9898817342023056, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9898817342023056, "spot_peer_score": 4.521723328074075, "spot_baseline_score": 54.44070774839415, "baseline_archived_score": 53.502190310476124, "peer_archived_score": 5.667206323417102, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.521723328074075, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 54.44070774839415 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Influenza pandemics typically [come from](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2928832/) Influenza A, particularly from a sub-type against which much of the human population lacks much immunity. According [to CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses-types.html):\n\n>Currently circulating influenza A(H1N1) viruses are related to the pandemic 2009 H1N1 virus that emerged in the spring of 2009 and caused a flu pandemic ([CDC 2009 H1N1 Flu website](http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/)) These viruses, scientifically called the \"A(H1N1)pdm09 virus,\" and more generally called \"2009 H1N1,\" have continued to circulate seasonally since then and have undergone genetic changes and changes to their [antigenic properties](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/professionals/antigenic.htm) (i.e., the properties of the virus that affect immunity).\n\n>Influenza A(H3N2) viruses also change both genetically and antigenically. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses have formed many separate, genetically different clades in recent years that continue to co-circulate.\n\nFor the 2024-25 flu season, the [trivalent](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/trivalent-vaccines-2024-2025.html) (three-component) vaccine will target two influenza A and one influenza B virus. During the 2023-24 season, 69.2% of positive specimens [were](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html) influenza A, substantially similar to the 69.1% for the week ended ending May 4, 2024, at which time 97% of all positive cases that would be registered for the season had been tested. Among the 25,390 influenza-associated hospitalizations for the season, a disproportionate number (84.6%) were associated with influenza A, as compared with with 14.8% associated with influenza B.\n\nAccording [to CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/overview/index.html):\n\n>All public health and clinical laboratories report each week to CDC the total number of respiratory specimens tested for influenza and the number positive for influenza viruses, along with age or age group of the person, if available. CDC presents data from clinical laboratories that include the weekly total number of specimens tested for influenza, the number of positive influenza tests, and the percent positive by influenza virus type.\n\n>Influenza surveillance data are aggregated according to the week the event (e.g., positive laboratory test, outpatient visit, death) occurred. The week starts on Sunday and ends on the following Saturday. Each surveillance participant is requested to report its data to CDC by Tuesday afternoon of the following week. The data are then downloaded, compiled, and analyzed at CDC. [FluView](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/) and [FluView Interactive](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluviewinteractive.htm) are updated weekly on Fridays. \n\nSince the pandemic, the numbers have been as follows:\n\n### FluView Week 18 (beginning of May) - Influenza A %\n\n| Season | Influenza A % |\n|------------|---------------|\n| 2023-24 | 69.1% |\n| 2022-23 | 98.2% |\n| 2021-22 | 98.4% |\n\nLooking at a wider sweep of history, during the 25 years through the 2023-24 season, 11 had two waves of influenza activity. Among those 11 seasons, 8 of them [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html) their second wave come from influenza B." }, { "id": 29590, "title": "Will the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the week of Dec 7, 2024 be more than 2,000?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-weekly-total-number-of-influenza-hospitalizations-for-the-united-states-for-the-week-of-dec-7-2024-be-more-than-2000", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:12.637951Z", "published_at": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.709838Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T22:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29462, "title": "Will the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the week of Dec 7, 2024 be more than 2,000?", "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:12.637951Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T22:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T22:21:22.966518Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5283, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the CDC, 0.4% of all deaths in the United States from October 2023 to August 2024 [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html#cdc_generic_section_8-mortality-surveillance) influenza listed as an underlying or contributing cause. At its height, for the week ending January 6, 2024, 1.3% of all deaths in the US stemmed from influenza. In the past decade and a half, the CDC [estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu-burden/php/about/faq.html#cdc_tools_technologies_features-flu-related-hospitalization) that flu has, with the exception of the outlier year 2020, resulted in 140,000 to 710,000 hospitalizations per year. \r\n\r\nOver the wide sweep of history, much of the [fat tail risk](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x) from pandemics has come from influenza. Since 1900, the start of the [late modern medicine](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9609744/) era, the deadliest pandemic faced globally [was](https://openpublichealthjournal.com/contents/volumes/V14/TOPHJ-14-128/TOPHJ-14-128.pdf) the 1918 Spanish Flu. It was caused by [H1N1](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html) and killed an estimated 2%-3% of the world's population. Other notable influenza pandemics occurred in [1957](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html), [1968](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html), and [2009](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.htm).\r\n\r\nThe CDC runs an annual [FluSight](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html) forecasting exercise, producing an [ensemble forecast](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/flu-forecasts.htm) of weekly influenza hospitalizations compiled from forecasts [submitted](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub) by a number of teams. The forecasts are compared to the \"gold standard\" flu hospitalization data, [described by the CDC here](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub/tree/main/target-data), compiled from the underlying data [here](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh). The data used is from `Field 34` of the source data, described in the [guidance](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) as follows:\r\n\r\n>Information Needed: Previous day’s admissions with laboratory confirmed influenza virus infection\r\n\r\n>Description: Enter the total number of patients (adult and pediatric) who were admitted to an inpatient bed on the previous calendar day who had laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection at the time of admission. Include inpatient, overflow, observation, ED, ED awaiting orders for an inpatient bed, active surge/expansion, ICU, NICU, PICU, newborn and nursery", "resolution_criteria": "These questions will resolve as the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations in the United States for the week ending on Dec 7, 2024, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), currently anticipated to be posted at [this dataset](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub/blob/main/target-data/target-hospital-admissions.csv) from the FluSight Forecast Hub.\r\n\r\nThe value used for resolution will be the number shown in the \"value\" column in target-hospital-admissions.csv with \"location_name\" as \"US\" and the \"date\" corresponding to the relevant week end date.\r\n\r\nThe CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. To allow for data revisions and reporting delays, this question will resolve according to data shown at the resolution source 4 weeks after the respective end date.", "fine_print": "Forecasters please note two things:\r\n\r\n- At the time of this question's launch, the CDC has not yet begun updating the FluSight Forecast Hub dataset with numbers from the 2024-25 season. \r\n\r\n- There is some uncertainty about where the resolution data will be. If the CDC publishes the data at a different location than the one listed above, Metaculus Admins will issue a clarification updating the question accordingly.", "post_id": 29590, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730902622.518098, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6140743689837443 ], "centers": [ 0.71125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.765 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730902622.518098, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6140743689837443 ], "centers": [ 0.71125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.765 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28874999999999995, 0.71125 ], "means": [ 0.6643411123153153 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.792673405113397, 1.5789297253658554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.9007670990476838, 0.0, 0.9473668135401643, 0.0, 0.9419066441010752, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9130395523039647, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.29317339516391583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.4453829235582337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 50.842865253185735, "baseline_score": 56.096016284857534, "peer_score": 17.796460824707445, "coverage": 0.9890119642240031, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9890119642240031, "spot_peer_score": 12.328523103695158, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 50.842865253185735, "baseline_archived_score": 56.096016284857534, "peer_archived_score": 17.796460824707445, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.328523103695158 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the CDC, 0.4% of all deaths in the United States from October 2023 to August 2024 [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html#cdc_generic_section_8-mortality-surveillance) influenza listed as an underlying or contributing cause. At its height, for the week ending January 6, 2024, 1.3% of all deaths in the US stemmed from influenza. In the past decade and a half, the CDC [estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu-burden/php/about/faq.html#cdc_tools_technologies_features-flu-related-hospitalization) that flu has, with the exception of the outlier year 2020, resulted in 140,000 to 710,000 hospitalizations per year. \r\n\r\nOver the wide sweep of history, much of the [fat tail risk](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x) from pandemics has come from influenza. Since 1900, the start of the [late modern medicine](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9609744/) era, the deadliest pandemic faced globally [was](https://openpublichealthjournal.com/contents/volumes/V14/TOPHJ-14-128/TOPHJ-14-128.pdf) the 1918 Spanish Flu. It was caused by [H1N1](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html) and killed an estimated 2%-3% of the world's population. Other notable influenza pandemics occurred in [1957](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html), [1968](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html), and [2009](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.htm).\r\n\r\nThe CDC runs an annual [FluSight](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html) forecasting exercise, producing an [ensemble forecast](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/flu-forecasts.htm) of weekly influenza hospitalizations compiled from forecasts [submitted](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub) by a number of teams. The forecasts are compared to the \"gold standard\" flu hospitalization data, [described by the CDC here](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub/tree/main/target-data), compiled from the underlying data [here](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh). The data used is from `Field 34` of the source data, described in the [guidance](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) as follows:\r\n\r\n>Information Needed: Previous day’s admissions with laboratory confirmed influenza virus infection\r\n\r\n>Description: Enter the total number of patients (adult and pediatric) who were admitted to an inpatient bed on the previous calendar day who had laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection at the time of admission. Include inpatient, overflow, observation, ED, ED awaiting orders for an inpatient bed, active surge/expansion, ICU, NICU, PICU, newborn and nursery" }, { "id": 29589, "title": "Will the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the week of Nov 23, 2024 be more than 2,000?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-weekly-total-number-of-influenza-hospitalizations-for-the-united-states-for-the-week-of-nov-23-2024-be-more-than-2000", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:12.630515Z", "published_at": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.038533Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-22T12:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29461, "title": "Will the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the week of Nov 23, 2024 be more than 2,000?", "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:12.630515Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-21T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-22T12:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-22T12:50:27.539454Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5283, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the CDC, 0.4% of all deaths in the United States from October 2023 to August 2024 [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html#cdc_generic_section_8-mortality-surveillance) influenza listed as an underlying or contributing cause. At its height, for the week ending January 6, 2024, 1.3% of all deaths in the US stemmed from influenza. In the past decade and a half, the CDC [estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu-burden/php/about/faq.html#cdc_tools_technologies_features-flu-related-hospitalization) that flu has, with the exception of the outlier year 2020, resulted in 140,000 to 710,000 hospitalizations per year. \r\n\r\nOver the wide sweep of history, much of the [fat tail risk](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x) from pandemics has come from influenza. Since 1900, the start of the [late modern medicine](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9609744/) era, the deadliest pandemic faced globally [was](https://openpublichealthjournal.com/contents/volumes/V14/TOPHJ-14-128/TOPHJ-14-128.pdf) the 1918 Spanish Flu. It was caused by [H1N1](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html) and killed an estimated 2%-3% of the world's population. Other notable influenza pandemics occurred in [1957](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html), [1968](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html), and [2009](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.htm).\r\n\r\nThe CDC runs an annual [FluSight](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html) forecasting exercise, producing an [ensemble forecast](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/flu-forecasts.htm) of weekly influenza hospitalizations compiled from forecasts [submitted](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub) by a number of teams. The forecasts are compared to the \"gold standard\" flu hospitalization data, [described by the CDC here](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub/tree/main/target-data), compiled from the underlying data [here](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh). The data used is from `Field 34` of the source data, described in the [guidance](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) as follows:\r\n\r\n>Information Needed: Previous day’s admissions with laboratory confirmed influenza virus infection\r\n\r\n>Description: Enter the total number of patients (adult and pediatric) who were admitted to an inpatient bed on the previous calendar day who had laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection at the time of admission. Include inpatient, overflow, observation, ED, ED awaiting orders for an inpatient bed, active surge/expansion, ICU, NICU, PICU, newborn and nursery", "resolution_criteria": "These questions will resolve as the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations in the United States for the week ending on Nov 23, 2024, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), currently anticipated to be posted at [this dataset](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub/blob/main/target-data/target-hospital-admissions.csv) from the FluSight Forecast Hub.\r\n\r\nThe value used for resolution will be the number shown in the \"value\" column in target-hospital-admissions.csv with \"location_name\" as \"US\" and the \"date\" corresponding to the relevant week end date.\r\n\r\nThe CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. To allow for data revisions and reporting delays, this question will resolve according to data shown at the resolution source 4 weeks after the respective end date.", "fine_print": "Forecasters please note two things:\r\n\r\n- At the time of this question's launch, the CDC has not yet begun updating the FluSight Forecast Hub dataset with numbers from the 2024-25 season. \r\n\r\n- There is some uncertainty about where the resolution data will be. If the CDC publishes the data at a different location than the one listed above, Metaculus Admins will issue a clarification updating the question accordingly.", "post_id": 29589, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730902633.958815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5870000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6575 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730902633.958815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5870000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6575 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4129999999999999, 0.5870000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.5324600957727713 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 1.4250842608257805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8157616990331622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.10829599059260063, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 1.9105903213533635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.9320834217953953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41499849005424005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 19.32188821328907, "peer_score": 17.050712658423663, "coverage": 0.9877829355442964, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9877829355442964, "spot_peer_score": 21.322347185097662, "spot_baseline_score": 23.143240844796537, "baseline_archived_score": 19.32188821328907, "peer_archived_score": 17.050712658423663, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.322347185097662, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 23.143240844796537 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the CDC, 0.4% of all deaths in the United States from October 2023 to August 2024 [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html#cdc_generic_section_8-mortality-surveillance) influenza listed as an underlying or contributing cause. At its height, for the week ending January 6, 2024, 1.3% of all deaths in the US stemmed from influenza. In the past decade and a half, the CDC [estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu-burden/php/about/faq.html#cdc_tools_technologies_features-flu-related-hospitalization) that flu has, with the exception of the outlier year 2020, resulted in 140,000 to 710,000 hospitalizations per year. \r\n\r\nOver the wide sweep of history, much of the [fat tail risk](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x) from pandemics has come from influenza. Since 1900, the start of the [late modern medicine](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9609744/) era, the deadliest pandemic faced globally [was](https://openpublichealthjournal.com/contents/volumes/V14/TOPHJ-14-128/TOPHJ-14-128.pdf) the 1918 Spanish Flu. It was caused by [H1N1](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html) and killed an estimated 2%-3% of the world's population. Other notable influenza pandemics occurred in [1957](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html), [1968](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html), and [2009](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.htm).\r\n\r\nThe CDC runs an annual [FluSight](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html) forecasting exercise, producing an [ensemble forecast](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/flu-forecasts.htm) of weekly influenza hospitalizations compiled from forecasts [submitted](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub) by a number of teams. The forecasts are compared to the \"gold standard\" flu hospitalization data, [described by the CDC here](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub/tree/main/target-data), compiled from the underlying data [here](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh). The data used is from `Field 34` of the source data, described in the [guidance](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) as follows:\r\n\r\n>Information Needed: Previous day’s admissions with laboratory confirmed influenza virus infection\r\n\r\n>Description: Enter the total number of patients (adult and pediatric) who were admitted to an inpatient bed on the previous calendar day who had laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection at the time of admission. Include inpatient, overflow, observation, ED, ED awaiting orders for an inpatient bed, active surge/expansion, ICU, NICU, PICU, newborn and nursery" }, { "id": 29588, "title": "Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-three-or-more-frontier-ai-labs-issue-a-joint-statement-committing-to-constrain-their-ais-capabilities-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:12.621214Z", "published_at": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.804772Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29460, "title": "Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-05T14:24:12.621214Z", "open_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T23:43:19.561451Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\n\"3 Frontier Labs\" here means that, at the time of the statement, at least 3 signatories are Frontier Labs according to the definition in the resolution criteria.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if before January 1, 2025, three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nWe define a \"Frontier AI Lab\" as one who has trained models within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, which as of April 2023 is GPT-4. For example, as of April 2023, a frontier AI lab would be one which has trained a model with more than 2e24 FLOPs. However, this threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nCompute levels will be established either per credible media reporting or reporting from a credible research institution such as [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) using a best guess point estimate.", "fine_print": "* A \"joint statement\" refers to a document that is explicitly authored or endorsed by each party. A technical paper does not qualify.\n\n* \"committing to constrain their AI's capabilities\" will be interpreted narrowly. For example, a commitment to prevent certain types of restricted speech, or a commitment to always do Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback, will not qualify. The constraints must be on the general capabilities of the AIs - for example, committing to not using more than a certain amount of compute, or committing to not deploying a model until it verifiably cannot perform certain tasks, such as recursive self-improvement.", "post_id": 29588, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730902647.205954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22185068063273583 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730902647.205954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22185068063273583 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1774777741113851 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5626170525674368, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.11892943297667151, 0.3935277555318061, 1.322396609980348, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3480426160361687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.666687421852945, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.7471400545026624, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 78.09102532948084, "peer_score": 7.988988685507842, "coverage": 0.9868666068988818, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9868666068988818, "spot_peer_score": 7.86371131584144, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 78.09102532948084, "peer_archived_score": 7.988988685507842, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.86371131584144, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\n\"3 Frontier Labs\" here means that, at the time of the statement, at least 3 signatories are Frontier Labs according to the definition in the resolution criteria." }, { "id": 29550, "title": "Will \"slaughterbots\" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2025?\n\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-slaughterbots-kill-at-least-50-people-outside-a-military-conflict-by-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.562403Z", "published_at": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.245809Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29423, "title": "Will \"slaughterbots\" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2025?\n\n", "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.562403Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T23:29:31.443812Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "\"Slaughterbots\" is a term used to describe drones that use artificial intelligence and facial recognition to target people with lethal force.\n\nThe term was brought into the popular lexicon by an [arms-control advocacy video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU) created in 2017 by the Future of Life Institute (FLI) and Stuart Russell, who is a professor of computer science at UC Berkeley.\n\nWhile defense analyst Paul Scharre criticized the video as fear mongering [\"science fiction,\"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/why-you-shouldnt-fear-slaughterbots) the team behind the campaign continue to argue that [\"autonomous weapons are potentially scalable weapons of mass destruction (WMDs); essentially unlimited numbers can be launched by a small number of people. \"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/why-you-should-fear-slaughterbots-a-response)\n\nMax Tegmark, a professor at MIT and president of FLI, also warned that these weapons could be used by cartels and political dissents to carry out [targeted assassinations.](https://thenextweb.com/news/slaughterbots-are-a-step-away-from-your-neighborhood-and-we-need-a-ban)\n\n[In 2021 a resolution to ban autonomous lethal weapons failed to pass at the United Nations.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/un-talks-to-ban-slaughterbots-collapsed-heres-why-that-matters.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if a credible media outlet reports at least 50 civilians have been killed by autonomous drones before January 1st 2025. The media coverage must conclude that the drones were not under complete human control during the attack(s).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a military conflict is defined as an armed conflict including one or more governments, which includes any of the following situations:\n\n1. Armed conflict between states or nations (international war).\n\n2. Armed conflict between factions within a state where at least 1 side represents the pre-existing government (civil war).\n\n3. Armed conflict between a state military and a militia / terrorist group.\n\nFatalities resulting from militia / terrorist group attack on politicians / civil servants should count towards the total death count. \n\nThe devices do not have to be airborne. Terrestrial / aquatic slaughterbots will count.\n\nPeople do not need to be killed in a single location / single attack. A cumulative death toll of 50 will resolves positively.", "post_id": 29550, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730818966.163513, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.014750000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730818966.163513, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.014750000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.06625098201893512 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 2.446505831693951, 0.6319973297120942, 0.13135512406716748, 0.422729524609672, 0.22709237367160676, 0.21572547604369705, 0.5724472223148853, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 2.1629516244970217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.16647414536629784, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.5184797798380378, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.05334571300435, "peer_score": 6.336196463370391, "coverage": 0.9987791186571121, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9987791186571121, "spot_peer_score": 2.8918703725942545, "spot_baseline_score": 91.07326619029126, "baseline_archived_score": 91.05334571300435, "peer_archived_score": 6.336196463370391, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.8918703725942545, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 91.07326619029126 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "\"Slaughterbots\" is a term used to describe drones that use artificial intelligence and facial recognition to target people with lethal force.\n\nThe term was brought into the popular lexicon by an [arms-control advocacy video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU) created in 2017 by the Future of Life Institute (FLI) and Stuart Russell, who is a professor of computer science at UC Berkeley.\n\nWhile defense analyst Paul Scharre criticized the video as fear mongering [\"science fiction,\"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/why-you-shouldnt-fear-slaughterbots) the team behind the campaign continue to argue that [\"autonomous weapons are potentially scalable weapons of mass destruction (WMDs); essentially unlimited numbers can be launched by a small number of people. \"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/why-you-should-fear-slaughterbots-a-response)\n\nMax Tegmark, a professor at MIT and president of FLI, also warned that these weapons could be used by cartels and political dissents to carry out [targeted assassinations.](https://thenextweb.com/news/slaughterbots-are-a-step-away-from-your-neighborhood-and-we-need-a-ban)\n\n[In 2021 a resolution to ban autonomous lethal weapons failed to pass at the United Nations.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/un-talks-to-ban-slaughterbots-collapsed-heres-why-that-matters.html)" }, { "id": 29549, "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.556650Z", "published_at": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.142226Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:51:40.350208Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29422, "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?\n", "created_at": "2024-11-04T13:59:34.556650Z", "open_time": "2024-11-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T23:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T23:27:28.146977Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/)\n\nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\n\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\n\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.", "resolution_criteria": "Before January 1, 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\n\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29549, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730818943.28422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730818943.28422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.04099696653042911 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.6308407491715395, 2.20304165052363, 1.0618603762465275, 1.0513059022251439, 0.0, 2.401966956096783, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0231064344606837, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.00633841917244, "peer_score": 3.2525214173327033, "coverage": 0.9979219461701534, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9979219461701534, "spot_peer_score": 2.1386711896308013, "spot_baseline_score": 95.60566524124029, "baseline_archived_score": 96.00633841917244, "peer_archived_score": 3.2525214173327033, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.1386711896308013, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 95.60566524124029 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/)\n\nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\n\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\n\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice." } ] }
