Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=220
{ "count": 6248, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=240", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=200", "results": [ { "id": 39928, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-25 for the Metaculus question \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-ali-khamenei-cease-to-be-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:52.297237Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T18:58:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:32.699935Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:52.640384Z", "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T20:28:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T20:28:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-25T01:56:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-25T01:56:29Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T18:58:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39471, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-25 for the Metaculus question \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:52.297634Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T18:58:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-16T20:28:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-16T20:28:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-25T01:56:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-25T01:56:29Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:32.181099Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T20:28:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T20:28:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38671\n- Original question title: Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.\n> \n> Fleeing the country is defined as an indefinite departure from Iran and would also count for a Yes resolution. For example, reports that Khamenei has travelled to another country for medical treatment or a state visit would be considered temporary and would be insufficient. However, a departure in the context of a regime change in Tehran would be considered indefinite and would resolve as Yes. To assess the truth of the matter, Metaculus will consult credible source reporting. As an example, a hypothetical question on Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's [departure from Iran](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/january-16/shah-flees-iran) in 1979 would have resolved as Yes due to the preponderance of reporting, even though Pahlavi did not relinquish his title as Shah.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since 1989 Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran), a position that has been [described](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) by Freedom House as having the ultimate power within the country. \n> \n> On June 13, 2025, Israel [launched an air campaign](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et) targeting Iran's nuclear program and regime leadership, which killed several of Khamenei's top lieutenants such as Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (whose successor was in turn killed 4 days later in an Israeil airstrke); and Hossein Salami, who was commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \n> \n> US President Donald Trump is [said to have vetoed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-veto-khamenei-assassination-netanyahu-conflict-may-result-in-regime-change/) an Israeli plan to kill Khameinei as part of its campaign against Iran. Two days later Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114699610769479275) on social media: \n> \n> > We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n> \n> On June 19, 2025, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/israel-threatens-irans-top-leader-after-missiles-damage-hospital-and-wound-more-than-200-00414195) Israel's military \"has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.\" Additionally, regime change is another Israeli and American objective that has emerged since the start of the campaign.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38671,\"question_id\":37895,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38671). If the community prediction on 2025-09-25 01:56:29 is higher than 6.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39928, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758054419.943697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758054419.943697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35078892668178385 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -47.58418689467657, "peer_score": 13.163086685437147, "coverage": 0.9521300439039867, "relative_legacy_score": -0.1145459465835208, "weighted_coverage": 0.9521300439039867, "spot_peer_score": 14.564805654404287, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -47.58418689467657, "peer_archived_score": 13.163086685437147, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.1145459465835208, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.564805654404287, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38671\n- Original question title: Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.\n> \n> Fleeing the country is defined as an indefinite departure from Iran and would also count for a Yes resolution. For example, reports that Khamenei has travelled to another country for medical treatment or a state visit would be considered temporary and would be insufficient. However, a departure in the context of a regime change in Tehran would be considered indefinite and would resolve as Yes. To assess the truth of the matter, Metaculus will consult credible source reporting. As an example, a hypothetical question on Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's [departure from Iran](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/january-16/shah-flees-iran) in 1979 would have resolved as Yes due to the preponderance of reporting, even though Pahlavi did not relinquish his title as Shah.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since 1989 Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran), a position that has been [described](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) by Freedom House as having the ultimate power within the country. \n> \n> On June 13, 2025, Israel [launched an air campaign](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et) targeting Iran's nuclear program and regime leadership, which killed several of Khamenei's top lieutenants such as Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (whose successor was in turn killed 4 days later in an Israeil airstrke); and Hossein Salami, who was commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \n> \n> US President Donald Trump is [said to have vetoed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-veto-khamenei-assassination-netanyahu-conflict-may-result-in-regime-change/) an Israeli plan to kill Khameinei as part of its campaign against Iran. Two days later Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114699610769479275) on social media: \n> \n> > We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n> \n> On June 19, 2025, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/israel-threatens-irans-top-leader-after-missiles-damage-hospital-and-wound-more-than-200-00414195) Israel's military \"has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.\" Additionally, regime change is another Israeli and American objective that has emerged since the start of the campaign.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38671,\"question_id\":37895,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`" }, { "id": 39927, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 95.00% on 2025-09-26 for the Metaculus question \"Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Paul Biya reelected in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Paul Biya reelected in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-paul-biya-reelected-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:51.609842Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T22:35:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:33.605268Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:52.019716Z", "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T00:05:57Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T00:05:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T00:51:44Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T00:51:44Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T22:35:57Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39470, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 95.00% on 2025-09-26 for the Metaculus question \"Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:51.610280Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T22:35:57Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T00:05:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T00:05:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T00:51:44Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T00:51:44Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:32.929498Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T00:05:57Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T00:05:57Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39331\n- Original question title: Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 95.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Paul Biya is officially declared the winner of the 2025 Cameroonian presidential election.\n> \n> It will resolve as **No** if someone else is declared the winner of the election. If no winner is declared before January 1, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> In the event that the fairness or results of the election are disputed, this question will resolve according to the official pronouncements of the Cameroonian government.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Paul Biya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Biya) (born 1933) is the oldest head of state in the world and only the second president in the history of Cameroon, which gained its independence in 1960. Biya has been President of Cameroon since 1982, when the country's first president resigned and Biya, then prime minister, ascended to the office. In the decades since, Biya has regularly won reelection, in 1984, 1988, 1992, 1997, 2004, 2011, and 2018. (In 2008, the national assembly removed the term-limits provision from the constitution so he could continue to run.) The closest of these elections was in [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election), when Biya won with only 40% of the vote, not too far ahead of the second-place finisher, who attracted 36% of the vote. Since then, Biya has regularly trounced his opposition, amid allegations of fraud or electoral boycotts by opposing parties.\n> \n> Biya is again standing for reelection in October 2025. [Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election#Opinion_polls) in the months leading up to the election indicated that Biya was running third, slightly behind [Cabral Libii](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabral_Libii) and far behind [Maurice Kamto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Kamto). On July 26, 2025, however, Kamto was [disqualified](https://www.hilltopvoices.com/2025/07/elecam-publishes-official-list-of-13.html) by the state electoral authority. [More recent polling](https://cameroonnewsagency.com/breaking-news-cna-poll-makes-startling-revelations-on-upcoming-presidential-election/) indicates overwhelming opposition to Biya's remaining in office but no clear coalescence around an opposition candidate. Biya faces several opponents in the race and needs only a plurality of votes to win.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39331,\"question_id\":38708,\"last_cp\":0.95}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39331). If the community prediction on 2025-09-26 00:51:44 is higher than 95.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39927, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758065809.5742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.395 ], "centers": [ 0.47138888888888886 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758065809.5742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.395 ], "centers": [ 0.47138888888888886 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5286111111111111, 0.47138888888888886 ], "means": [ 0.5209667422524565 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -10.277645780789982, "peer_score": -5.390637577941469, "coverage": 0.9254758024215699, "relative_legacy_score": -0.11087184394792782, "weighted_coverage": 0.9254758024215699, "spot_peer_score": -3.0642537730052903, "spot_baseline_score": -8.501034167437378, "baseline_archived_score": -10.277645780789982, "peer_archived_score": -5.390637577941469, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.11087184394792782, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.0642537730052903, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -8.501034167437378 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39331\n- Original question title: Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 95.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Paul Biya is officially declared the winner of the 2025 Cameroonian presidential election.\n> \n> It will resolve as **No** if someone else is declared the winner of the election. If no winner is declared before January 1, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> In the event that the fairness or results of the election are disputed, this question will resolve according to the official pronouncements of the Cameroonian government.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Paul Biya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Biya) (born 1933) is the oldest head of state in the world and only the second president in the history of Cameroon, which gained its independence in 1960. Biya has been President of Cameroon since 1982, when the country's first president resigned and Biya, then prime minister, ascended to the office. In the decades since, Biya has regularly won reelection, in 1984, 1988, 1992, 1997, 2004, 2011, and 2018. (In 2008, the national assembly removed the term-limits provision from the constitution so he could continue to run.) The closest of these elections was in [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election), when Biya won with only 40% of the vote, not too far ahead of the second-place finisher, who attracted 36% of the vote. Since then, Biya has regularly trounced his opposition, amid allegations of fraud or electoral boycotts by opposing parties.\n> \n> Biya is again standing for reelection in October 2025. [Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election#Opinion_polls) in the months leading up to the election indicated that Biya was running third, slightly behind [Cabral Libii](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabral_Libii) and far behind [Maurice Kamto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Kamto). On July 26, 2025, however, Kamto was [disqualified](https://www.hilltopvoices.com/2025/07/elecam-publishes-official-list-of-13.html) by the state electoral authority. [More recent polling](https://cameroonnewsagency.com/breaking-news-cna-poll-makes-startling-revelations-on-upcoming-presidential-election/) indicates overwhelming opposition to Biya's remaining in office but no clear coalescence around an opposition candidate. Biya faces several opponents in the race and needs only a plurality of votes to win.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39331,\"question_id\":38708,\"last_cp\":0.95}}`" }, { "id": 39926, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 88.00% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question \"Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"South Africa removed from FATF grey-list in fall 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"South Africa removed from FATF grey-list in fall 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-south-africa-removed-from-fatf-grey-list-in-fall-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:50.994689Z", "published_at": "2025-09-15T19:05:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:34.443975Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:51.286045Z", "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T20:35:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T20:35:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T13:52:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T13:52:42Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T19:05:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39469, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 88.00% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question \"Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:50.995092Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T19:05:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-15T20:35:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-15T20:35:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T13:52:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-27T13:52:42Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:33.834847Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T20:35:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T20:35:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39712\n- Original question title: Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 88.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if South Africa is removed from the [Financial Action Task Force](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/the-fatf/what-we-do.html) (FATF) grey-list (Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring) at the next FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting in 2025 (currently scheduled for October 20—24).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Delays will not impact this question, unless no meeting takes place in 2025, in which case this question will be **annulled**. \n> * In the event that a decision is made to remove South Africa from the FATF grey-list without the FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting taking place, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Financial Action Task Force](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/the-fatf/what-we-do.html) (FATF) describes itself as:\n> \n> > *\\[an organisation that]* leads global action to tackle money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing *\\[and]* researches how money is laundered and terrorism is funded, promotes global standards to mitigate the risks, and assesses whether countries are taking effective action.\n> \n> The FATF actively monitors countries and assess their anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing abilities; those with poor records are put on the so-called grey- and black-lists. The grey-list identifies countries which are *\"actively working with the FATF to address strategic deficiencies in their regimes to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing,\"* and the black-list identifies countries, *\"with serious strategic deficiencies to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and financing of proliferation.\"*\n> \n> South Africa was [added to the grey-list in February 2023](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/publications/Fatfgeneral/outcomes-fatf-plenary-february-2023.html), however recent reports suggested that the nation was:\n> \n> > edging closer to leaving a global financial watchdog’s so-called gray list in October, with a team of assessors scheduled to visit the nation this month.\n> \n> ###### Bloomberg: [South Africa Moves Closer to Exiting Dirty-Money List in October](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-18/south-africa-moves-closer-to-exiting-dirty-money-list-in-october)\n> \n> The decision in October will be made at the FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting in Paris which is currently [scheduled](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/calendars/events.html) for October 20th — 24th.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39712,\"question_id\":39091,\"last_cp\":0.88}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39712). If the community prediction on 2025-09-27 13:52:42 is higher than 88.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39926, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757968051.861383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757968051.861383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5837666473093304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 19.82700527966926, "peer_score": 3.9429596809917156, "coverage": 0.9673575012772173, "relative_legacy_score": -0.08600568791752589, "weighted_coverage": 0.9673575012772173, "spot_peer_score": 3.6278367649954384, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284736, "baseline_archived_score": 19.82700527966926, "peer_archived_score": 3.9429596809917156, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.08600568791752589, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.6278367649954384, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284736 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39712\n- Original question title: Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 88.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if South Africa is removed from the [Financial Action Task Force](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/the-fatf/what-we-do.html) (FATF) grey-list (Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring) at the next FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting in 2025 (currently scheduled for October 20—24).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Delays will not impact this question, unless no meeting takes place in 2025, in which case this question will be **annulled**. \n> * In the event that a decision is made to remove South Africa from the FATF grey-list without the FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting taking place, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Financial Action Task Force](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/the-fatf/what-we-do.html) (FATF) describes itself as:\n> \n> > *\\[an organisation that]* leads global action to tackle money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing *\\[and]* researches how money is laundered and terrorism is funded, promotes global standards to mitigate the risks, and assesses whether countries are taking effective action.\n> \n> The FATF actively monitors countries and assess their anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing abilities; those with poor records are put on the so-called grey- and black-lists. The grey-list identifies countries which are *\"actively working with the FATF to address strategic deficiencies in their regimes to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing,\"* and the black-list identifies countries, *\"with serious strategic deficiencies to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and financing of proliferation.\"*\n> \n> South Africa was [added to the grey-list in February 2023](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/publications/Fatfgeneral/outcomes-fatf-plenary-february-2023.html), however recent reports suggested that the nation was:\n> \n> > edging closer to leaving a global financial watchdog’s so-called gray list in October, with a team of assessors scheduled to visit the nation this month.\n> \n> ###### Bloomberg: [South Africa Moves Closer to Exiting Dirty-Money List in October](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-18/south-africa-moves-closer-to-exiting-dirty-money-list-in-october)\n> \n> The decision in October will be made at the FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting in Paris which is currently [scheduled](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/calendars/events.html) for October 20th — 24th.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39712,\"question_id\":39091,\"last_cp\":0.88}}`" }, { "id": 39925, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-09-26 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US attacks Venezuela before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US attacks Venezuela before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-attacks-venezuela-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:50.383937Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T02:05:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:35.285910Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:50.705017Z", "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T03:35:31Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T03:35:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T02:33:25Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T02:33:25Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T02:05:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39468, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-09-26 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:50.384398Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T02:05:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T03:35:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T03:35:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T02:33:25Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-26T02:33:25Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:34.675185Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T03:35:31Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T03:35:31Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39336\n- Original question title: Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n> \n> To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> \n> If it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n> \n> If an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n> \n> Due to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n> \n> During the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n> \n> After Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n> \n> On August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39336,\"question_id\":38713,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39336). If the community prediction on 2025-09-26 02:33:25 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39925, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758078757.12309, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.43100000000000005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758078757.12309, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.43100000000000005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.569, 0.43100000000000005 ], "means": [ 0.46350832365466504 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 15.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 21.281048183545188, "peer_score": 11.653719288258387, "coverage": 0.9391939335399202, "relative_legacy_score": 0.06088317117831689, "weighted_coverage": 0.9391939335399202, "spot_peer_score": 17.91179223623891, "spot_baseline_score": 18.650055764449476, "baseline_archived_score": 21.281048183545188, "peer_archived_score": 11.653719288258387, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.06088317117831689, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.91179223623891, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 18.650055764449476 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39336\n- Original question title: Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n> \n> To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> \n> If it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n> \n> If an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n> \n> Due to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n> \n> During the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n> \n> After Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n> \n> On August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39336,\"question_id\":38713,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`" }, { "id": 39924, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-25 for the Metaculus question \"Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Spirit Airlines emerge from bankruptcy before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Spirit Airlines emerge from bankruptcy before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-spirit-airlines-emerge-from-bankruptcy-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:49.756405Z", "published_at": "2025-09-18T04:38:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T02:52:36.158225Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:50.096338Z", "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T06:08:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T06:08:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-25T13:26:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-25T13:26:48Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T04:38:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32830, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-15", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-15", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-15T07:59:50Z", "close_date": "2025-10-04T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-18T22:02:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-15T07:59:52.625497Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T12:08:39.444969Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39467, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-25 for the Metaculus question \"Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-15T09:41:49.756852Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T04:38:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-18T06:08:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-18T06:08:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-25T13:26:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-25T13:26:48Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-28T02:52:35.553476Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T06:08:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T06:08:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39343\n- Original question title: Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, Spirit Airlines, Inc. emerges from Chapter 11 bankruptcy.\n> \n> If Spirit Airlines, Inc is liquidated, dissolved, its Chapter 11 case is converted to Chapter 7, or the Chapter 11 bankruptcy case is dismissed without confirmation of a reorganisation plan this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> On August 29, 2025, Spirit Airlines, Inc. [announced](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Issues-Open-Letter-to-All-Guests/default.aspx) that the company has entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy.\n> \n> > Today, Spirit took a proactive step to build a stronger foundation and future for our company. We have voluntarily entered the Chapter 11 restructuring process to ensure the long-term success of our airline.\n> \n> This marks the [second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spirit_Airlines#Attempted_mergers_and_bankruptcy) time the troubled airline has done so since November 2024, where the low-cost airline filed for bankruptcy on the back of several failed merger attempts between fellow low-cost airlines JetBlue Airways Corporation and Frontier Airlines, Inc.\n> \n> Whilst Spirit managed to [emerge](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Emerges-from-Financial-Restructuring-Better-Positioned-to-Advance-its-Transformation-and-Enhanced-Guest-Experience/default.aspx) from their initial bankruptcy in March 2025 (a reorganization [approved](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Receives-Court-Confirmation-of-Reorganization-Plan/default.aspx) by the court February 2025), it ultimately failed to stabilise its finances amidst challenging market conditions, slow growth and failed restructuring.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39343,\"question_id\":38720,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39343). If the community prediction on 2025-09-25 13:26:48 is higher than 6.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39924, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758173375.138031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.20500000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758173375.138031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.20500000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.795, 0.20500000000000002 ], "means": [ 0.23364599483204138 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 11.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 65.16213323571876, "peer_score": 4.416076571948692, "coverage": 0.9861401472268281, "relative_legacy_score": 0.03304838914096915, "weighted_coverage": 0.9861401472268281, "spot_peer_score": 5.13357558175976, "spot_baseline_score": 66.90267655096306, "baseline_archived_score": 65.16213323571876, "peer_archived_score": 4.416076571948692, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.03304838914096915, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.13357558175976, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 66.90267655096306 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39343\n- Original question title: Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-15: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, Spirit Airlines, Inc. emerges from Chapter 11 bankruptcy.\n> \n> If Spirit Airlines, Inc is liquidated, dissolved, its Chapter 11 case is converted to Chapter 7, or the Chapter 11 bankruptcy case is dismissed without confirmation of a reorganisation plan this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> On August 29, 2025, Spirit Airlines, Inc. [announced](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Issues-Open-Letter-to-All-Guests/default.aspx) that the company has entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy.\n> \n> > Today, Spirit took a proactive step to build a stronger foundation and future for our company. We have voluntarily entered the Chapter 11 restructuring process to ensure the long-term success of our airline.\n> \n> This marks the [second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spirit_Airlines#Attempted_mergers_and_bankruptcy) time the troubled airline has done so since November 2024, where the low-cost airline filed for bankruptcy on the back of several failed merger attempts between fellow low-cost airlines JetBlue Airways Corporation and Frontier Airlines, Inc.\n> \n> Whilst Spirit managed to [emerge](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Emerges-from-Financial-Restructuring-Better-Positioned-to-Advance-its-Transformation-and-Enhanced-Guest-Experience/default.aspx) from their initial bankruptcy in March 2025 (a reorganization [approved](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Receives-Court-Confirmation-of-Reorganization-Plan/default.aspx) by the court February 2025), it ultimately failed to stabilise its finances amidst challenging market conditions, slow growth and failed restructuring.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39343,\"question_id\":38720,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`" }, { "id": 39892, "title": "Will any of these listed US federal government officials be out of their position before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will any of these US federal government officials be out before October 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will any of these US federal government officials be out before October 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-any-of-these-us-federal-government-officials-be-out-before-october-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-14T23:59:58.878267Z", "published_at": "2025-09-15T00:49:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-01T14:22:59.097791Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-15T19:42:02.960470Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-20T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-20T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39437, "title": "Will any of these listed US federal government officials be out of their position before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-14T23:59:58.878777Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-20T00:11:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-20T00:11:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-20T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-01T13:04:00.781065Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-20T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump's first administration was notable for a [striking](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/) amount of turnover in all four years. By contrast, Joe Biden's turnover rate [was](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-biden-administration/) much lower, with Trump [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/biden-trump-first-presidential-debate-2024-election/card/trump-knocks-biden-for-not-firing-people-bwM4mGEdjjjYg5HwlKgV?gaa_at=eafs\\&gaa_n=ASWzDAiUmOXBO10XWmUng3R_zrqM9BR9qeSdR3zfF6MQ7m2AR-P20BPm-8Z8-SBTyU0%3D\\&gaa_ts=68c81fb5\\&gaa_sig=hGGYBoZMnGNabxhc0G0oi3qVxtuXdYbiiurZiH7JJpYh29wtQmJquKm7366ubo2H78dIPSTtOduasHthbVDAaQ%3D%3D) about Biden, \"He doesn’t fire people. I’ve never seen him fire people.\" Trump's second term, similar to his first, has been [marked](https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/trump-turnover-2-0-tracking-whos-out-of-trumps-second-term) by sometimes rapid departures. Throughout the federal government, over 50,000 workers [had been let go](https://www.cnn.com/politics/tracking-federal-workforce-firings-dg) by the new administration as of July 2025. See also the [Trump firings tracker](https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/tracking-trumps-unprecedented-often-illegal-firings-of-political-appointees-and-watchdogs/). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any of the officials listed in the Fine Print leaves their position, announces they will leave their position, or whose employer announces that they have left or will leave their position, after September 14, 2025 and before October 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "The list (with 100 roles) is as follows:\n\n| Cabinet Secretary | Incumbent |\n| --------------------------- | --------------------- |\n| State | Marco Rubio |\n| Treasury | Scott Bessent |\n| War | Peter Hegseth |\n| Justice (Attorney General) | Pamela (Pam) Bondi |\n| Interior | Doug Burgum |\n| Labor | Lori Chavez‑DeRemer |\n| Health & Human Services | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. |\n| Commerce | Howard Lutnick |\n| Education | Linda McMahon |\n| Homeland Security | Kristi Noem |\n| Agriculture | Brooke Rollins |\n| Transportation | Sean Duffy |\n| Housing & Urban Development | Eric Scott Turner |\n| Energy | Christopher Wright |\n| Veterans Affairs | Doug Collins |\n\n| Cabinet-level positions | Incumbent |\n| ------------------------------------- | -------------- |\n| Director of National Intelligence | Tulsi Gabbard |\n| Director, Central Intelligence Agency | John Ratcliffe |\n| U.S. Trade Representative | Jamieson Greer |\n| EPA Administrator | Lee Zeldin |\n| SBA Administrator | Kelly Loeffler |\n| OMB Director | Russell Vought |\n| U.N. Ambassador | Dorothy Shea |\n\n| Employer & Title | Incumbent |\n| ----------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------- |\n| Securities and Exchange Commission Chair | Paul S. Atkins |\n| Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner | Hester M. Peirce |\n| Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner | Caroline A. Crenshaw |\n| Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner | Mark T. Uyeda |\n| Federal Trade Commission Chair | Andrew N. Ferguson |\n| Federal Trade Commission Commissioner | Melissa Holyoak |\n| Federal Trade Commission Commissioner | Mark R. Meador |\n| Federal Communications Commission Chair | Brendan Carr |\n| Federal Communications Commission Commissioner | Anna M. Gomez |\n| Federal Communications Commission Commissioner | Olivia Trusty |\n| Director of the National Security Agency (NSA) | William J. Hartman |\n| Commodity Futures Trading Commission Acting Chair | Caroline D. Pham |\n| Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chair | David Rosner |\n| Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Lindsay S. See |\n| Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Judy W. Chang |\n| Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chair | David A. Wright |\n| Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Annie Caputo |\n| Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Bradley R. Crowell |\n| Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Matthew J. Marzano |\n| Federal Election Commission Commissioner | James E. \"Trey\" Trainor III |\n| Federal Election Commission Commissioner | Shana M. Broussard |\n| Federal Election Commission Commissioner | James E. \"Trey\" Trainor III |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chair | Jerome H. Powell |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chair | Philip N. Jefferson |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chair for Supervision | Michelle W. Bowman |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Governor | Michael S. Barr |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Governor | Lisa D. Cook |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Governor | Christopher J. Waller |\n| White House Chief of Staff | Susie Wiles |\n| White House Press Secretary | Karoline Leavitt |\n| DOJ (FBI) Director | Kash Patel |\n| DOJ (FBI) Deputy Director | Dan Bongino |\n| Office of Science and Technology Policy Director | Michael Kratsios |\n| White House National Security Advisor | Marco Rubio |\n| HHS (CMS) CMCS Director & Deputy Administrator | Caprice Knapp |\n| HHS (CMS) CMCS Deputy Director | Anne Marie Costello |\n| HHS (CMS) CMCS Deputy Director | Sara Vitolo |\n| Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) | John Ratcliffe |\n| DHS (FEMA) Acting Administrator | David Richardson |\n| HHS (CDC) Director | Susan Monarez |\n| National Institutes of Health Chief Scientific Officer | Leighton Chan |\n| Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Chief Science Officer | Althea Grant-Lenzy |\n| NASA Acting Administrator | Sean Duffy |\n| Executive Office (DOGE) Administrator | Amy Gleason |\n| OMB Deputy Director | Dan Bishop |\n| OMB Deputy Director for Management | Eric Ueland |\n| Library of Congress Register of Copyrights | Shira Perlmutter |\n| USDA Under Secretary of Agriculture for Food Safety | Jose Emilio Esteban |\n| USDA Under Secretary of Agriculture for Natural Resources & Environment | Homer Wilkes |\n| USDA Under Secretary of Agriculture for Rural Development | Basil Gooden |\n| National Technical Information Service Director | Jeremiah Jones |\n| Bureau of Economic Analysis Director | Vipin Arora |\n| US Patent & Trademark Office Director | Coke Morgan Stewart |\n| US Patent & Trademark Office Deputy Director | Will Covey |\n| National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chief Scientist | Steve Thur |\n| NOAA Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services | Stephen Volz |\n| NOAA National Ocean Service Director | Nicole LeBoeuf |\n| National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director | Michael Farrar |\n| National Weather Service Director | Ken Graham |\n| National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center Director | Wassila Thiaw |\n| NWS National Hurricane Center Director | Michael Brennan |\n| Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Assistant Secretary | Michael Goff |\n| DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Assistant Secretary | Brad Crabtree |\n| Government National Mortgage Association Senior Vice President | Gregory A. Keith |\n| U.S. Geological Survey Director | Sarah J. Ryker |\n| U.S. Geological Survey Chief Scientist | David Applegate |\n| Bureau of Land Management Principal Deputy Director | Bill Groffy |\n| OSHA Acting Assistant Secretary of Labor | Amanda Wood Laihow |\n| Bureau of Labor Statistics Deputy Commissioner | William J. Wiatrowski |\n| Federal Highway Administration Executive Director | Gloria Shepherd |\n| Food & Drug Administration Chief Scientist | Steven Kozlowski |\n| Environmental Protection Agency Chief Scientist | Maureen Gwinn |\n| National Science Foundation Chief of Staff | Brian Stone |\n| National Science Foundation Chief Science Officer | Simon Malcomber |\n| Internal Revenue Service Commissioner | Scott Bessent |\n| Federal Election Commission Chair | Shana M. Broussard |\n| Federal Election Commission Commissioner | Dara Lindenbaum |\n| Securities & Exchange Commission Commissioner | Caroline Crenshaw |\n\nTerminations (e.g., being fired by President Trump) only count if the individual is out of their position as delineated in the main Resolution Criteria. For example, Lisa Cook, who Trump [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-fires-federal-reserve-board-member-lisa-cook/) he fired in August 2025, as of September 14, 2025 is [litigating](https://apnews.com/article/trump-lisa-cook-federal-reserve-779e2c05762400b5134cd1543b0358ae) her termination and is still [listed](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/cook.htm) as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Thus, she is not considered to be out of her position for purposes of this question.\n\nBeing placed on administrative leave, as has [occurred](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stephen-volz-98b6a3b1_dear-colleagues-i-didnt-expect-to-be-communicating-activity-7355653642575572992-ZG3x/) with NOAA's Satellite and Information Systems Director Stephen Volz, does not count as long as the individual continues to be legally employed in the role. \n\nIf a listed individual is Acting in the role, it is treated as a synonym for being in the role itself. For example, Dorothy Shea is the acting United States Ambassador to the United Nations, a position that requires confirmation by the US Senate, and for purposes of this question she is treated as being in the role. \n\nPromotion within the same agency, such being promoted from Deputy Director to Director, counts as long as the individual leaves the old role as defined in the Resolution Criteria.", "post_id": 39892, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758353247.276825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758353247.276825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.2894983507431834 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014335762373467701, 0.0, 0.35034195902508225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40775849294455657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.297889047670591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5700033419091622, 0.0, 1.6049362306693173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2133557760870057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.850240976340088, 0.0, 0.9664916688432781, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 1.0181528079745015, 0.0, 0.3853915778427911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46404561502386255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7827061049060935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027344313508279407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9615460504005068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022471481657050284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01096609333389573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04583440182682791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -25.215393869941327, "peer_score": 8.299902598264104, "coverage": 0.2988261176389713, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9853185500528244, "spot_peer_score": 3.0194529462944386, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -25.215393869941327, "peer_archived_score": 8.299902598264104, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.0194529462944386, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 251, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump's first administration was notable for a [striking](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/) amount of turnover in all four years. By contrast, Joe Biden's turnover rate [was](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-biden-administration/) much lower, with Trump [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/biden-trump-first-presidential-debate-2024-election/card/trump-knocks-biden-for-not-firing-people-bwM4mGEdjjjYg5HwlKgV?gaa_at=eafs\\&gaa_n=ASWzDAiUmOXBO10XWmUng3R_zrqM9BR9qeSdR3zfF6MQ7m2AR-P20BPm-8Z8-SBTyU0%3D\\&gaa_ts=68c81fb5\\&gaa_sig=hGGYBoZMnGNabxhc0G0oi3qVxtuXdYbiiurZiH7JJpYh29wtQmJquKm7366ubo2H78dIPSTtOduasHthbVDAaQ%3D%3D) about Biden, \"He doesn’t fire people. I’ve never seen him fire people.\" Trump's second term, similar to his first, has been [marked](https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/trump-turnover-2-0-tracking-whos-out-of-trumps-second-term) by sometimes rapid departures. Throughout the federal government, over 50,000 workers [had been let go](https://www.cnn.com/politics/tracking-federal-workforce-firings-dg) by the new administration as of July 2025. See also the [Trump firings tracker](https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/tracking-trumps-unprecedented-often-illegal-firings-of-political-appointees-and-watchdogs/). " }, { "id": 39891, "title": "Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in the 2025 presidential election of Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire)?", "short_title": "Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in 2025 election?", "url_title": "Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in 2025 election?", "slug": "will-alassane-ouattara-win-80-or-more-of-the-first-round-vote-in-2025-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-14T20:39:12.134617Z", "published_at": "2025-09-14T20:45:06Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T03:00:00.551246Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-14T20:45:28.445834Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-25T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-25T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-25T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-15T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39436, "title": "Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in the 2025 presidential election of Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire)?", "created_at": "2025-09-14T20:39:12.135055Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-19T20:45:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-19T20:45:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-25T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-25T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-25T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ivory coast is [scheduled](https://electionguide.org/elections/id/4575/) to hold the first round of its 2025 general election on October 25, 2025. An 83 year-old US-educated economist, President Alassane Ouattara has served since 2010. He is widely [noted](https://www.barrons.com/news/alassane-ouattara-economist-turned-i-coast-political-pillar-66e8c3a9) as having authoritarian tendencies. Many viable opponents have been [barred](https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20250908-ivory-coast-bars-ex-president-gbagbo-opposition-leader-from-presidential-race) from running in the election. For base rate information, please see previous results here: [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Ivorian_presidential_election), [2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Ivorian_presidential_election), and [2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Ivorian_presidential_election). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Alassane Ouattara receives 80% or more in the first round of the [2025 Ivorian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Ivorian_presidential_election) according to official results. ", "fine_print": "If the first round of the election is postponed, the question may remain open. If the first round is postponed until after December 31, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 39891, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761289940.528, "end_time": 1761905528.716, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761289940.528, "end_time": 1761905528.716, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7356480638886367 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 455, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ivory coast is [scheduled](https://electionguide.org/elections/id/4575/) to hold the first round of its 2025 general election on October 25, 2025. An 83 year-old US-educated economist, President Alassane Ouattara has served since 2010. He is widely [noted](https://www.barrons.com/news/alassane-ouattara-economist-turned-i-coast-political-pillar-66e8c3a9) as having authoritarian tendencies. Many viable opponents have been [barred](https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20250908-ivory-coast-bars-ex-president-gbagbo-opposition-leader-from-presidential-race) from running in the election. For base rate information, please see previous results here: [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Ivorian_presidential_election), [2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Ivorian_presidential_election), and [2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Ivorian_presidential_election). " }, { "id": 39889, "title": "Will the Dutch unemployment rate rise above 5% in any month of 2025?", "short_title": "Dutch unemployment to rise above 5% in 2025?", "url_title": "Dutch unemployment to rise above 5% in 2025?", "slug": "dutch-unemployment-to-rise-above-5-in-2025", "author_id": 278699, "author_username": "dragostt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-14T17:25:18.122682Z", "published_at": "2025-09-23T11:37:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T06:27:37.893090Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-23T11:37:59.982098Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-24T11:37:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32836, "name": "Dragos's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "updaters", "description": "[I started](https://www.linkedin.com/in/dragos-tomescu/) The Updaters as a community for curious individuals interested in exploring the future together. We create forecasts, share our reasoning, and learn from one another. \n\nMembers forecast on real-world topics such as economics, business, technology, society, and culture, discussing their reasoning and thought processes. The focus is on collective improvement through forecasting, friendly competition, and sharing feedback.\n\nFrom time to time, we'll meet (online) for some knowledge-sharing sessions and to build best practices. ", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 39434, "title": "Will the Dutch unemployment rate rise above 5% in any month of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-14T17:25:18.123132Z", "open_time": "2025-09-24T11:37:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-28T11:37:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-28T11:37:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The unemployment rate in the Netherlands is published monthly by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. In recent years, the rate has been relatively low, hovering between 3–4%. However, changes in the global economy, energy prices, or government policy could push it higher.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports an unemployment rate >5.0% in any month of 2025.", "fine_print": "For this question, “unemployment rate” refers to the CBS definition, available [here](https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/figures/detail/80590eng). \n\nSpecifically: StatLine table 80590ENG, Unemployment rate Seasonally adjusted (%)", "post_id": 39889, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761463217.212, "end_time": 1763194275.27, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.088 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761463217.212, "end_time": 1763194275.27, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.088 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1502517488050312 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The unemployment rate in the Netherlands is published monthly by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. In recent years, the rate has been relatively low, hovering between 3–4%. However, changes in the global economy, energy prices, or government policy could push it higher." }, { "id": 39886, "title": "Will Russia, India, and China hold a trilateral (three-way) meeting before September 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Russia, India, China meet before September 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Russia, India, China meet before September 1, 2026?", "slug": "russia-india-china-meet-before-september-1-2026", "author_id": 249474, "author_username": "psuryaprabhat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-13T22:27:12.403887Z", "published_at": "2025-10-08T01:12:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T19:14:04.425478Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-08T01:14:34.446683Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-09T01:12:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39432, "title": "Will Russia, India, and China hold a trilateral (three-way) meeting before September 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-13T22:27:12.404324Z", "open_time": "2025-10-09T01:12:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T01:12:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T01:12:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Russia-India-China (“RIC troika”) format has been an intermittent forum for trilateral dialogue [since the early 2000s](https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia_india_china_trilateral_cooperation_and_prospects/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) and is geopolitically salient because coordinated statements or cooperation among these three major Eurasian powers could shift global diplomatic and economic alignments. Russia has [recently pushed](https://thediplomat.com/2025/07/is-the-russia-india-china-troika-making-a-comeback/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) for a revival of RIC diplomacy, but China and India’s willingness to participate at the leaders’ level is uncertain because of India–China border disputes and strategic frictions and India’s multi-alignment policy. Media coverage around recent [Shanghai Cooperation Organization](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/modis-sco-summit-visit-shows-china-and-india-want-reset-relations-dragon-elephant-tango?utm_source=chatgpt.com) and other summits has repeatedly flagged discussion of RIC revivals and occasional three-way huddles on the margins of larger meetings. \n\nTracking whether the three heads of state/government actually hold a dedicated trilateral leaders’ meeting by the end of August 2026 is therefore a crisp signal of changing geopolitical dynamics.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before September 1, 2026, there is a scheduled trilateral meeting (in-person or virtual) in which either (a) the heads of state/government of Russia, India, and China or (b) their foreign ministers simultaneously participate in the joint discussion. The meeting must be explicitly described as a trilateral/RIC (Russia-India-China) leaders’ meeting in an official communique, or foreign ministry statement (for [example](https://www.mea.gov.in/outoging-visit-detail.htm?30670/RussiaIndiaChina+Trilateral)) or by at least **two** reputable independent news agencies (e.g., Reuters, The Diplomat, Associated Press, BBC) quoting official sources.", "fine_print": "**What counts as a meeting**\n\n* A scheduled trilateral discussion (a distinct three-party session) that all three leaders attend simultaneously, whether in person (a three-way summit or a documented three-party side meeting at a larger summit), **or** by videoconference/teleconference where all three leaders participate together.\n\n**What does NOT count**\n\n* Two or more bilateral meetings (e.g., A meets B, then A meets C separately) even if they happen on the same day.\n* Appearances or photos showing the three leaders in the same place without reporting or evidence that they held a joint three-way discussion (unless official sources confirm a three-party meeting).\n* Informal side huddles at summits, for example [at the SCO in 2025](https://apnews.com/article/china-sco-summit-putin-modi-xi-huddle-photos-7410dcb6f76a4db3acd4bd123d2ad493), do not count.", "post_id": 39886, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761074034.16857, "end_time": 1762783716.835, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761074034.16857, "end_time": 1762783716.835, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5730170050025916 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Russia-India-China (“RIC troika”) format has been an intermittent forum for trilateral dialogue [since the early 2000s](https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia_india_china_trilateral_cooperation_and_prospects/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) and is geopolitically salient because coordinated statements or cooperation among these three major Eurasian powers could shift global diplomatic and economic alignments. Russia has [recently pushed](https://thediplomat.com/2025/07/is-the-russia-india-china-troika-making-a-comeback/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) for a revival of RIC diplomacy, but China and India’s willingness to participate at the leaders’ level is uncertain because of India–China border disputes and strategic frictions and India’s multi-alignment policy. Media coverage around recent [Shanghai Cooperation Organization](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/modis-sco-summit-visit-shows-china-and-india-want-reset-relations-dragon-elephant-tango?utm_source=chatgpt.com) and other summits has repeatedly flagged discussion of RIC revivals and occasional three-way huddles on the margins of larger meetings. \n\nTracking whether the three heads of state/government actually hold a dedicated trilateral leaders’ meeting by the end of August 2026 is therefore a crisp signal of changing geopolitical dynamics." }, { "id": 39853, "title": "Will Tesla operate 400,000 driverless robotaxis over any three consecutive months before 2032?", "short_title": "400 thousand robotaxis before 2032", "url_title": "400 thousand robotaxis before 2032", "slug": "400-thousand-robotaxis-before-2032", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-12T16:52:05.644553Z", "published_at": "2025-10-07T00:44:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-23T12:24:56.700165Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-07T00:45:56.852453Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-04-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-08T00:44:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39399, "title": "Will Tesla operate 400,000 driverless robotaxis over any three consecutive months before 2032?", "created_at": "2025-09-12T16:52:05.644933Z", "open_time": "2025-10-08T00:44:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-12T00:44:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-12T00:44:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-04-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In September 2025, Tesla proposed a new [CEO Performance Award](https://www.votetesla.com/compensation-proposals/ \"CEO Performance Award\") with four “Product Goals,” including **“1 Million Robotaxis in Commercial Operation.”**\n\nRobotaxis are autonomous vehicles without drivers that Tesla launched in June 2025 in [Austin](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjwnlje3yp1o \"Austin\"), before expanding to [other cities](https://www.teslaoracle.com/2025/08/09/tesla-robotaxi-service-to-expand-to-new-cities-as-the-automaker-opens-jobs-for-autopilot-car-operators/ \"other cities\"). As of September 2025, there are only a handful of these vehicles in operation, and they employ [\"safety drivers,\"](https://www.teslaacessories.com/blogs/news/robotaxi-fsd-v14-and-the-race-to-remove-safety-drivers) who sit in the driver's seat in case of emergency. Tesla and Musk hope to expand the Robotaxi program very significantly as part of the long-term vision of the company of a fully electric vehicle fleet.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, over a consecutive three-month period beginning before January 1, 2032, Tesla has an average daily aggregate of at least 400,000 driverless Robotaxis in commercial operation anywhere in the world, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions \"credible sources\").", "fine_print": "To qualify, a robotaxi must be a Tesla vehicle using [Full Self-Driving](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot#Full_Self-Driving_\\(FSD\\)) and offering transportation services without a human driver in the vehicle; successors with substantially similar functionality will also qualify. Vehicles with a safety *driver* in the vehicle do not qualify.\n\nTo qualify, robotaxi operations must be run by Tesla or contracted/authorized operators acting for Tesla as part of a transportation service.", "post_id": 39853, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761222286.215167, "end_time": 1779697689.805, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761222286.215167, "end_time": 1779697689.805, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5850293310629202 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In September 2025, Tesla proposed a new [CEO Performance Award](https://www.votetesla.com/compensation-proposals/ \"CEO Performance Award\") with four “Product Goals,” including **“1 Million Robotaxis in Commercial Operation.”**\n\nRobotaxis are autonomous vehicles without drivers that Tesla launched in June 2025 in [Austin](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjwnlje3yp1o \"Austin\"), before expanding to [other cities](https://www.teslaoracle.com/2025/08/09/tesla-robotaxi-service-to-expand-to-new-cities-as-the-automaker-opens-jobs-for-autopilot-car-operators/ \"other cities\"). As of September 2025, there are only a handful of these vehicles in operation, and they employ [\"safety drivers,\"](https://www.teslaacessories.com/blogs/news/robotaxi-fsd-v14-and-the-race-to-remove-safety-drivers) who sit in the driver's seat in case of emergency. Tesla and Musk hope to expand the Robotaxi program very significantly as part of the long-term vision of the company of a fully electric vehicle fleet." }, { "id": 39846, "title": "Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?", "slug": "will-nepal-swear-in-a-new-prime-minister-before-september-20-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-12T01:34:37.529355Z", "published_at": "2025-09-12T01:50:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T09:34:30.962462Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-12T12:35:38.749384Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-12T16:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T16:40:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-12T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39391, "title": "Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-12T01:34:37.529898Z", "open_time": "2025-09-12T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T01:50:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T01:50:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T16:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T19:07:11Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-20T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-12T16:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NBC News September 8, 2025: [Nepal's prime minister resigns as protesters defy curfew to set fire to leaders' homes](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/police-open-fire-protests-nepals-social-media-policy-killing-least-17-rcna229982)\r\n\r\n> Nepali Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigned Tuesday, Reuters reported, after days of mass protests over a social media ban and official corruption in the Himalayan nation culminated in the torching of top leaders’ homes, as well as the Parliament building.\r\n\r\nAl Jazeera September 10, 2025: [Who’s leading Nepal after Oli resignation, what’s next for Gen Z protests?](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/10/whos-leading-nepal-after-oli-resignation-whats-next-for-gen-z-protests)\r\n\r\n> On Wednesday, amid a curfew, the Nepali army ordered people to stay at home.\r\n\r\n> Yet with Oli no longer prime minister, questions about Nepal’s political future are growing, especially with the Gen Z protesters who forced his removal unwilling to settle for a replacement prime minister from the current parliament.\r\n\r\n> Officially, experts said, the army’s role is merely to restore order, and not to fill the administrative gap left by Oli’s resignation.\r\n\r\n> “At present, the army’s role is confined to ensuring security rather than exercising administrative control,” Yog Raj Lamichhane, an assistant professor at the School of Business in Nepal’s Pokhara University, told Al Jazeera.\r\n\r\n> In practice, though, Upreti said the army was effectively in charge of the country at the moment, because President Poudel – seen as a part of the same ruling elite that the protesters want to remove from power – lacks credibility among the Gen Z campaigners for change.\r\n\r\nThe position has been vacant since September 9, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after September 11, 2025 and before September 20, 2025, anyone takes the [oath](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nepal_2016#s852) of office and secrecy as the new [Prime Minister of Nepal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Nepal).", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on an individual taking the oath of office. Thus, the vote of confidence [required](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nepal_2016#s795) by section 76 of the Constitution of Nepal is not necessary for a resolution of Yes.", "post_id": 39846, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757687274.900829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757687274.900829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.17 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -1.8825658785135897, "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.01209569470531629, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.6003863008275176, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -155.6393348524385, "baseline_archived_score": -1.8825658785135897, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -155.6393348524385 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NBC News September 8, 2025: [Nepal's prime minister resigns as protesters defy curfew to set fire to leaders' homes](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/police-open-fire-protests-nepals-social-media-policy-killing-least-17-rcna229982)\r\n\r\n> Nepali Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigned Tuesday, Reuters reported, after days of mass protests over a social media ban and official corruption in the Himalayan nation culminated in the torching of top leaders’ homes, as well as the Parliament building.\r\n\r\nAl Jazeera September 10, 2025: [Who’s leading Nepal after Oli resignation, what’s next for Gen Z protests?](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/10/whos-leading-nepal-after-oli-resignation-whats-next-for-gen-z-protests)\r\n\r\n> On Wednesday, amid a curfew, the Nepali army ordered people to stay at home.\r\n\r\n> Yet with Oli no longer prime minister, questions about Nepal’s political future are growing, especially with the Gen Z protesters who forced his removal unwilling to settle for a replacement prime minister from the current parliament.\r\n\r\n> Officially, experts said, the army’s role is merely to restore order, and not to fill the administrative gap left by Oli’s resignation.\r\n\r\n> “At present, the army’s role is confined to ensuring security rather than exercising administrative control,” Yog Raj Lamichhane, an assistant professor at the School of Business in Nepal’s Pokhara University, told Al Jazeera.\r\n\r\n> In practice, though, Upreti said the army was effectively in charge of the country at the moment, because President Poudel – seen as a part of the same ruling elite that the protesters want to remove from power – lacks credibility among the Gen Z campaigners for change.\r\n\r\nThe position has been vacant since September 9, 2025." }, { "id": 39843, "title": "Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Charlie Kirk's assassin be arrested or killed before September 19, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Charlie Kirk's assassin be arrested or killed before September 19, 2025?", "slug": "will-charlie-kirks-assassin-be-arrested-or-killed-before-september-19-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": 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"comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39389, "title": "Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-11T15:08:42.609676Z", "open_time": "2025-09-11T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-12T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-12T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-19T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-13T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-13T11:50:48.609746Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-19T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-13T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Federal Bureau of Investigation has [described](https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/saltlakecity/news/remarks-by-sac-robert-bohls-at-press-conference-regarding-shooting-at-utah-valley-university) the [assassination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Charlie_Kirk) of [TurningPoint USA](https://tpusa.com/) founder Charles James Kirk as \"very much an active case,\" with the investigation \"in its early stages.\" \n\nAccording to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/09/11/us/charlie-kirk-shooting-news#e8533795-d6aa-5021-a7d1-6de25331ec4d): \n\n> Officials have recovered the firearm that they believe was used in the shooting of Charlie Kirk, says Robert Bohls, the special agent in charge of the F.B.I.’s Salt Lake City field office. He described it in a news conference as a high-powered, bolt-action rifle. The weapon was found in a “wooded area” where the shooter fled to after killing Kirk, he said.\n\n> Investigators “have good video footage of this individual,” says Beau Mason, Utah’s public safety chief. But officials will not release it while they are working to identify the suspect through facial recognition technology. If they are unsuccessful, officials plan to share his image publicly in an effort to identify him, the commissioner says. He has been referring to the shooter as a man throughout this news conference.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 19, 2025, a suspected shooter in the [killing of Charlie Kirk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Charlie_Kirk) dies or is arrested and detained for a period of at least 24 hours, according to publicly-available credible reporting. (See [definitions](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).) In order to count, the suspected shooter must be identified as such by the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Utah Department of Public Safety, or any other law enforcement agency involved in the investigation.", "fine_print": "In the event of an arrest, the suspected shooter must also be detained for a period of greater than or equal to 24 hours. If on September 19, 2025 the suspected shooter has not yet been detained for 24 hours, the question will still resolve as **Yes** if the arrest was before that date (and will resolve as of September 19, 2025), as long as the 24-hour threshold is met.\n\nIn order to streamline this question's resolution, please note that an arrest anywhere in the world, for any reason, will resolve this question as Yes. For purposes of this question, we define \"arrest\" using the definition [posted at Nolo](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/justifies-arrest-probable-cause.html): \"An arrest requires taking someone into custody, against that person's will, in order to prosecute or interrogate. It involves a physical application of force, or submission to an officer's show of force. In sum, the arrestee must not be free to leave. Whether the act by the police is termed an arrest under state law is not relevant. When deciding whether someone has been arrested, courts apply the 'reasonable man' standard. This means asking whether a reasonable person, in the shoes of the defendant, would have concluded that he or she was not free to leave.\"", "post_id": 39843, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757726495.919987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757726495.919987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9836970518054584 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.14816789822404922, 0.18029738860722122, 6.575692476262467 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.698800122961314, "peer_score": 2.8345061360694044, "coverage": 0.19384758764751372, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9977449364210268, "spot_peer_score": 10.750221545169367, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 14.698800122961314, "peer_archived_score": 2.8345061360694044, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.750221545169367, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Federal Bureau of Investigation has [described](https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/saltlakecity/news/remarks-by-sac-robert-bohls-at-press-conference-regarding-shooting-at-utah-valley-university) the [assassination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Charlie_Kirk) of [TurningPoint USA](https://tpusa.com/) founder Charles James Kirk as \"very much an active case,\" with the investigation \"in its early stages.\" \n\nAccording to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/09/11/us/charlie-kirk-shooting-news#e8533795-d6aa-5021-a7d1-6de25331ec4d): \n\n> Officials have recovered the firearm that they believe was used in the shooting of Charlie Kirk, says Robert Bohls, the special agent in charge of the F.B.I.’s Salt Lake City field office. He described it in a news conference as a high-powered, bolt-action rifle. The weapon was found in a “wooded area” where the shooter fled to after killing Kirk, he said.\n\n> Investigators “have good video footage of this individual,” says Beau Mason, Utah’s public safety chief. But officials will not release it while they are working to identify the suspect through facial recognition technology. If they are unsuccessful, officials plan to share his image publicly in an effort to identify him, the commissioner says. He has been referring to the shooter as a man throughout this news conference." }, { "id": 39837, "title": "Will the SAF maintain control of both Khartoum city center and el-Obeid in North Kordofan through December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "SAF holds Khartoum & el-Obeid through 2025?", "url_title": "SAF holds Khartoum & el-Obeid through 2025?", "slug": "saf-holds-khartoum-el-obeid-through-2025", "author_id": 119381, "author_username": "MoEL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-10T15:16:13.565645Z", "published_at": "2025-09-10T15:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-05T02:33:13.739821Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-10T15:16:50Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-15T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 7, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 7, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39381, "title": "Will the SAF maintain control of both Khartoum city center and el-Obeid in North Kordofan through December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-10T15:16:13.566015Z", "open_time": "2025-09-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-15T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-15T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-15T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-15T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The territorial dynamics of Sudan's civil war shifted significantly in early 2025. [According to ACLED analysis](https://acleddata.com/2025/04/15/two-years-of-war-in-sudan-how-the-saf-is-gaining-the-upper-hand/), the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recaptured Khartoum's presidential palace on March 21, 2025, and declared full control of the capital on March 26. The SAF also broke the RSF siege of el-Obeid in February 2025, a strategic city crucial for projecting force into Darfur and protecting central Sudan.\n\nHowever, the RSF maintains significant presence in southern Omdurman and continues operations in Kordofan with support from the SPLM-N. [Military analysts note](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/7/29/rsf-attacks-compound-humanitarian-crisis-in-sudans-strategic-city) that el-Obeid remains vulnerable to RSF attacks, particularly during the rainy season when SAF air operations are hampered. The RSF's establishment of a parallel government in July 2025 signals their intention to maintain territorial claims.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) continuously maintains effective control until January 1, 2026 of both:\n\n1. The Khartoum city center (defined as the area containing the presidential palace, key ministries, and army headquarters)\n2. El-Obeid city in North Kordofan\n\nIf RSF or another force gains control of either of these for at least 3 whole days, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Control means the SAF can operate government functions, maintain security checkpoints, and prevent RSF from establishing permanent positions within these urban areas. Brief incursions or attacks that don't result in RSF territorial gains won't affect resolution.\n\nIf either location becomes contested with neither side having clear control for over 14 consecutive days before January 1, 2026, the question resolves as **No**. Temporary evacuations due to natural disasters don't count as loss of control if SAF returns within 14 days.", "post_id": 39837, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759631583.397656, "end_time": 1762309983.252, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759631583.397656, "end_time": 1762309983.252, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.75 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The territorial dynamics of Sudan's civil war shifted significantly in early 2025. [According to ACLED analysis](https://acleddata.com/2025/04/15/two-years-of-war-in-sudan-how-the-saf-is-gaining-the-upper-hand/), the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recaptured Khartoum's presidential palace on March 21, 2025, and declared full control of the capital on March 26. The SAF also broke the RSF siege of el-Obeid in February 2025, a strategic city crucial for projecting force into Darfur and protecting central Sudan.\n\nHowever, the RSF maintains significant presence in southern Omdurman and continues operations in Kordofan with support from the SPLM-N. [Military analysts note](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/7/29/rsf-attacks-compound-humanitarian-crisis-in-sudans-strategic-city) that el-Obeid remains vulnerable to RSF attacks, particularly during the rainy season when SAF air operations are hampered. The RSF's establishment of a parallel government in July 2025 signals their intention to maintain territorial claims." }, { "id": 39836, "title": "Will the US Congress Pass The Farm Bill by Jan 1st. 2026?", "short_title": "US Farm Bill by Jan. 2026?", "url_title": "US Farm Bill by Jan. 2026?", "slug": "us-farm-bill-by-jan-2026", "author_id": 270917, "author_username": "Gapetheape", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-10T11:58:07.122897Z", "published_at": "2025-09-15T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T09:14:10.637091Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-14T17:59:07.732697Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-08T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-15T17:58:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 39372, "title": "Will the US Congress Pass The Farm Bill by Jan 1st. 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-10T11:58:07.123381Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T17:58:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-22T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-22T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-08T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Farm Bill is a huge bill with great impact on the social safety net and agricultural industry in the US. There is also an opportunity for policy that would negate Prop 12, the strongest and largest animal welfare law in the United States, to be sneaked into it.\n\nThe last Farm Bill was passed in 2018. A new version is supposed to be passed every 5 to 6 years, but in 2023 the US government failed to pass one. A one year extension of the 2018 bill was passed that year instead, and then another year long extension was passed in 2024. The current extension will expire by Sept. 30th, 2025 if a new bill is not passed. \n\nThe 2018 bill was passed in Dec. 2018, nearly 2 months after the last bill expired. \n\nYou can find \"wiki\" on this topic with more information [here](https://meercast.substack.com/p/predicting-if-the-2025-us-farm-bill). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve if the bill is published on Congress's website and stated to have passed, like [this](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF11126), or is reported to have passed by a reputable news source like Reuters. 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There is also an opportunity for policy that would negate Prop 12, the strongest and largest animal welfare law in the United States, to be sneaked into it.\n\nThe last Farm Bill was passed in 2018. A new version is supposed to be passed every 5 to 6 years, but in 2023 the US government failed to pass one. A one year extension of the 2018 bill was passed that year instead, and then another year long extension was passed in 2024. The current extension will expire by Sept. 30th, 2025 if a new bill is not passed. \n\nThe 2018 bill was passed in Dec. 2018, nearly 2 months after the last bill expired. \n\nYou can find \"wiki\" on this topic with more information [here](https://meercast.substack.com/p/predicting-if-the-2025-us-farm-bill). " }, { "id": 39820, "title": "Before June 2027, will a top-level French official publicly state that France will adopt a Sixth Republic?", "short_title": "Will France officially announce a 6th Republic before June 2027?", "url_title": "Will France officially announce a 6th Republic before June 2027?", "slug": "will-france-officially-announce-a-6th-republic-before-june-2027", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-08T23:12:41.563794Z", "published_at": "2025-09-19T01:14:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-18T13:05:53.926534Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-19T01:16:15.286757Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-06-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-20T01:14:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39366, "title": "Before June 2027, will a top-level French official publicly state that France will adopt a Sixth Republic?", "created_at": "2025-09-08T23:12:41.564187Z", "open_time": "2025-09-20T01:14:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-24T01:14:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-24T01:14:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-06-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "France has been in one of its worst political crises under the 5th Republic since the [dissolution of the Assembly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_dissolution_\\(France\\)#Emmanuel_Macron's_dissolution \"dissolution of the Assembly\") by Emmanuel Macron in June 2024, bringing the end of the Attal government and a new Assembly even more split than before. Before that government, [the average duration](https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_ministre_fran%C3%A7ais#Dur%C3%A9es_%C3%A0_Matignon) of a Prime Minister since 1958 was above 30 months; the average over the past decade is now down to 17 months.\n\nSince June 2024, the Barnier government has been censored by the Assembly and been replaced by the Bayrou government, which fell too after [losing a vote of confidence](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2025/09/08/francois-bayrou-ousted-as-french-pm-after-losing-confidence-vote_6745163_5.html \"losing the vote of confidence\") on September 8, 2025. Sebastien Lecornu has now been nominated as Prime Minister on September 9, 2025, but the length of his tenure is very uncertain with [many obstacles already in his way](https://apnews.com/article/france-new-prime-minister-lecornu-protests-budget-5cbea14cd492d2893afbd3339c52b3d2). Several parties (RN, LFI, Green) are asking for a new legislative election or the President's resignation, while others ready to negotiate (LR, PS) seem unlikely to be enough to get a majority.\n\nWhile the 1958 Constitution was designed to stop incessant changes to the Prime Minister from occurring again, a similar instability was the reason for the end of the 4th Republic. That context is now bringing more and more people to consider the possibility of switching to a 6th Republic.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French President, Prime Minister, or a cabinet minister make an on-the-record public statement before June 1, 2027, that France will adopt a ‘Sixth Republic.’\n\nA public statement will *not* count, however, if a retraction or refutation is made within 24 hours by the official who made the comment, the Prime Minister or the President.", "fine_print": "An on-the-record public statement is defined as an official press conference, written communiqué, interview, parliamentary speech, or publication on an official government channel.", "post_id": 39820, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760792743.715981, "end_time": 1763957923.373, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760792743.715981, "end_time": 1763957923.373, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.12317673649690988 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "France has been in one of its worst political crises under the 5th Republic since the [dissolution of the Assembly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_dissolution_\\(France\\)#Emmanuel_Macron's_dissolution \"dissolution of the Assembly\") by Emmanuel Macron in June 2024, bringing the end of the Attal government and a new Assembly even more split than before. Before that government, [the average duration](https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_ministre_fran%C3%A7ais#Dur%C3%A9es_%C3%A0_Matignon) of a Prime Minister since 1958 was above 30 months; the average over the past decade is now down to 17 months.\n\nSince June 2024, the Barnier government has been censored by the Assembly and been replaced by the Bayrou government, which fell too after [losing a vote of confidence](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2025/09/08/francois-bayrou-ousted-as-french-pm-after-losing-confidence-vote_6745163_5.html \"losing the vote of confidence\") on September 8, 2025. Sebastien Lecornu has now been nominated as Prime Minister on September 9, 2025, but the length of his tenure is very uncertain with [many obstacles already in his way](https://apnews.com/article/france-new-prime-minister-lecornu-protests-budget-5cbea14cd492d2893afbd3339c52b3d2). Several parties (RN, LFI, Green) are asking for a new legislative election or the President's resignation, while others ready to negotiate (LR, PS) seem unlikely to be enough to get a majority.\n\nWhile the 1958 Constitution was designed to stop incessant changes to the Prime Minister from occurring again, a similar instability was the reason for the end of the 4th Republic. That context is now bringing more and more people to consider the possibility of switching to a 6th Republic." }, { "id": 39817, "title": "Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Israel take Gaza City before 2029?", "url_title": "Israel take Gaza City before 2029?", "slug": "israel-take-gaza-city-before-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-08T16:40:40.094263Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T10:13:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T21:36:08.075671Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T10:15:13.063753Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T10:13:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39364, "title": "Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-09-08T16:40:40.094740Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T10:13:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T09:13:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T09:13:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City?*\n\nSince the outset of hostilities in October 2023, Israel has engaged in a protracted military campaign against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. A major milestone came in August 2025, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved **Operation Gideon’s Chariots II**, formally initiating an offensive to seize **control of Gaza City**—a dense, heavily populated area considered Hamas’s last stronghold. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began operations on **August 20**, advancing into neighborhoods like Sabra and Zeitoun,[<u> issuing evacuation orders, and mobilizing approximately 60,000 reservists</u>](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/israels-gaza-city-operation-will-only-worsen-its-global-isolation/). More than 80% of Gaza has been designated military zones or evacuation areas, contributing to worsening famine conditions in the city.\n\nSupporters argue that capturing Gaza City is critical for dismantling Hamas’s command structure, securing hostages, and reasserting Israeli security. [<u>Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz portray the operation as a strategic necessity to end the war on Israel’s terms.</u>](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/gaza-takeover-plan-exposes-constraints-on-israeli-military-24b941b2) However, military analysts and some IDF officials—like Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir—warn that city occupation could entangle Israeli forces in urban warfare, significantly risk hostages, and deepen international isolation.\n\nCivilians face dire circumstances. The UN has declared famine in Gaza City, and evacuation orders have compounded human suffering amid active bombardments. Thousands have been displaced, while communities remain in rubble and starvation intensifies. [<u>Church and humanitarian groups are urging ceasefires and pleading that residents be allowed to stay or be protected.</u>](https://apnews.com/article/vatican-gaza-pope-palestinians-israel-0b1c1d5eb2c8d257248638ff231e9c2f)\n\nInternational reactions are sharply divided. Some U.S. officials propose shifting from hostage negotiations to long-term governance structures, potentially including UN oversight or technocratic rule. [<u>Yet many regional powers and human rights advocates decry the plan</u>](https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-war/article/trump-meeting-today-gaza-war-qzdgc5952) as collective punishment and warn of catastrophic humanitarian and political consequences.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if before Jan 20, 2029, Israel is confirmed to have established full military control over Gaza City.", "fine_print": "This question will only resolve as Yes if there is no serious dispute among credible sources that Israel has full control over Gaza City. If there is a credible dispute or ambiguity, this question will resolve as No.", "post_id": 39817, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761341757.308454, "end_time": 1768072340.722, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761341757.308454, "end_time": 1768072340.722, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.22761039427518015 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City?*\n\nSince the outset of hostilities in October 2023, Israel has engaged in a protracted military campaign against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. A major milestone came in August 2025, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved **Operation Gideon’s Chariots II**, formally initiating an offensive to seize **control of Gaza City**—a dense, heavily populated area considered Hamas’s last stronghold. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began operations on **August 20**, advancing into neighborhoods like Sabra and Zeitoun,[<u> issuing evacuation orders, and mobilizing approximately 60,000 reservists</u>](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/israels-gaza-city-operation-will-only-worsen-its-global-isolation/). More than 80% of Gaza has been designated military zones or evacuation areas, contributing to worsening famine conditions in the city.\n\nSupporters argue that capturing Gaza City is critical for dismantling Hamas’s command structure, securing hostages, and reasserting Israeli security. [<u>Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz portray the operation as a strategic necessity to end the war on Israel’s terms.</u>](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/gaza-takeover-plan-exposes-constraints-on-israeli-military-24b941b2) However, military analysts and some IDF officials—like Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir—warn that city occupation could entangle Israeli forces in urban warfare, significantly risk hostages, and deepen international isolation.\n\nCivilians face dire circumstances. The UN has declared famine in Gaza City, and evacuation orders have compounded human suffering amid active bombardments. Thousands have been displaced, while communities remain in rubble and starvation intensifies. [<u>Church and humanitarian groups are urging ceasefires and pleading that residents be allowed to stay or be protected.</u>](https://apnews.com/article/vatican-gaza-pope-palestinians-israel-0b1c1d5eb2c8d257248638ff231e9c2f)\n\nInternational reactions are sharply divided. Some U.S. officials propose shifting from hostage negotiations to long-term governance structures, potentially including UN oversight or technocratic rule. [<u>Yet many regional powers and human rights advocates decry the plan</u>](https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-war/article/trump-meeting-today-gaza-war-qzdgc5952) as collective punishment and warn of catastrophic humanitarian and political consequences." }, { "id": 39783, "title": "Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-chegg-file-for-bankruptcy-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-08T01:34:14.705002Z", "published_at": "2025-09-08T01:42:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T15:54:12.387010Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-08T01:43:36.237074Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-09T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39237, "title": "Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-08T01:34:14.705721Z", "open_time": "2025-09-09T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-13T01:42:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-13T01:42:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Homework helper company Chegg at one point was so popular with students that it [became](https://www.theblueandwhite.org/post/to-catch-a-cheat) a verb: if a homework assignment became too difficult, you'd simply \"Chegg it.\" However, since the November 30, 2022 widespread rollout of ChatGPT, Chegg has faced massive disruption of its business model. From Reuters May 12, 2025: [Chegg to lay off 22% of workforce as AI tools shake up edtech industry](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chegg-lay-off-22-workforce-ai-tools-shake-up-edtech-industry-2025-05-12/)\r\n\r\n> Chegg said on Monday it would lay off about 22% of its workforce, or 248 employees, to cut costs and streamline its operations as students increasingly turn to AI-powered tools such as ChatGPT over traditional edtech platforms.\r\n\r\n> The company, an online education firm that offers textbook rentals, homework help and tutoring, has been grappling with a decline in web traffic for months and warned that the trend would likely worsen before improving.\r\n\r\nChegg's quarterly and annual reports can be accessed [here](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1364954\\&owner=exclude). In its most recent [quarterly report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364954/000136495425000096/chgg-20250630.htm), Chegg had declining revenues, enormous accounting losses, and a dwindling cash position. According to the company: \r\n\r\n> ...across our industry, there has been a continued increase in the adoption of free and paid generative AI products for academic support, and students are increasingly turning to generative AI for academic support, such as homework and exams, as well as assistance in other areas of daily life. This issue impacts education technology companies broadly, where students see generative AI products like Chat GPT and others as strong alternatives to vertically specialized solutions for education such as Chegg. These developments have negatively impacted our industry and our business and are expected to continue to impact our overall traffic and accelerate the decline in the number of new subscribers that sign up for our services, resulting in continued negative impacts to our growth, business, operating results and financial condition.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Chegg, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2026. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761580442.016095, "end_time": 1761777396.158, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761580442.016095, "end_time": 1761777396.158, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18069461128634962 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.26540318263127977, 0.12605111094439408, 0.0, 0.37238575474279556, 0.5264632843375718, 0.0, 1.4704844094985283, 0.0, 0.884968893897945, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6293283000426806, 0.7492086006196257, 0.0, 0.027134041465974392, 0.0, 1.263576373985505, 0.0, 0.1391714993251316, 0.011970422053018563, 0.0, 1.186109865309119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10277262157203126, 0.0, 0.09876596466639408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8095197673563739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2351041423332046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017863085367085276, 0.6956811236098437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03712392450271936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 404, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Homework helper company Chegg at one point was so popular with students that it [became](https://www.theblueandwhite.org/post/to-catch-a-cheat) a verb: if a homework assignment became too difficult, you'd simply \"Chegg it.\" However, since the November 30, 2022 widespread rollout of ChatGPT, Chegg has faced massive disruption of its business model. From Reuters May 12, 2025: [Chegg to lay off 22% of workforce as AI tools shake up edtech industry](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chegg-lay-off-22-workforce-ai-tools-shake-up-edtech-industry-2025-05-12/)\r\n\r\n> Chegg said on Monday it would lay off about 22% of its workforce, or 248 employees, to cut costs and streamline its operations as students increasingly turn to AI-powered tools such as ChatGPT over traditional edtech platforms.\r\n\r\n> The company, an online education firm that offers textbook rentals, homework help and tutoring, has been grappling with a decline in web traffic for months and warned that the trend would likely worsen before improving.\r\n\r\nChegg's quarterly and annual reports can be accessed [here](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1364954\\&owner=exclude). In its most recent [quarterly report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364954/000136495425000096/chgg-20250630.htm), Chegg had declining revenues, enormous accounting losses, and a dwindling cash position. According to the company: \r\n\r\n> ...across our industry, there has been a continued increase in the adoption of free and paid generative AI products for academic support, and students are increasingly turning to generative AI for academic support, such as homework and exams, as well as assistance in other areas of daily life. This issue impacts education technology companies broadly, where students see generative AI products like Chat GPT and others as strong alternatives to vertically specialized solutions for education such as Chegg. These developments have negatively impacted our industry and our business and are expected to continue to impact our overall traffic and accelerate the decline in the number of new subscribers that sign up for our services, resulting in continued negative impacts to our growth, business, operating results and financial condition." }, { "id": 39782, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-before-november-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-08T01:15:51.254293Z", "published_at": "2025-09-08T01:17:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T17:41:11.264812Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-08T01:17:57.761439Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-08T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39236, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-08T01:15:51.254741Z", "open_time": "2025-09-08T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-13T01:17:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-13T01:17:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In August 2025, plant-based protein manufacturer Beyond Meat [denied](https://plantbasednews.org/news/economics/beyond-meat-denies-filing-for-bankruptcy/) filing bankruptcy in response to what it called \"unequivocally false\" rumors. Its quarterly and annual reports can be read [here](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1655210\\&owner=exclude), including its most recent [quarterly report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1655210/000165521025000159/bynd-20250628.htm), which showed it down to \\$103 million in cash, declining revenues, and -\\$65.4 million in free cash flow in the 6 months through June 28, 2025. \r\n\r\nSee also from The Food Institute: [Beyond Meat on the Verge of Financial Ruin](https://foodinstitute.com/focus/beyond-meat-on-the-verge-of-financial-ruin/)\r\n\r\nAlso from Metaculus: [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/beyond-meat-bankruptcy-before-2026/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Beyond Meat, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before November 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39782, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761759661.032261, "end_time": 1761803140.231, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761759661.032261, "end_time": 1761803140.231, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07906226105120134 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.9342765860390005, 1.7215761433483983, 0.6225371256522032, 0.5698847500099355, 0.0, 2.747780630031347, 0.0, 0.1792663589359841, 0.7173313825295089, 0.0, 1.049908763449678, 0.012431064033118435, 0.10452470613861276, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2045601656939886, 0.6195470556045188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014303523946117215, 0.19519530604924692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002164380995132114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31768015703601027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029741897568960904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46416998254747094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016810815496895358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07479455043645611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03249305809127576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014505757420011789 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 527, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In August 2025, plant-based protein manufacturer Beyond Meat [denied](https://plantbasednews.org/news/economics/beyond-meat-denies-filing-for-bankruptcy/) filing bankruptcy in response to what it called \"unequivocally false\" rumors. Its quarterly and annual reports can be read [here](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1655210\\&owner=exclude), including its most recent [quarterly report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1655210/000165521025000159/bynd-20250628.htm), which showed it down to \\$103 million in cash, declining revenues, and -\\$65.4 million in free cash flow in the 6 months through June 28, 2025. \r\n\r\nSee also from The Food Institute: [Beyond Meat on the Verge of Financial Ruin](https://foodinstitute.com/focus/beyond-meat-on-the-verge-of-financial-ruin/)\r\n\r\nAlso from Metaculus: [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/beyond-meat-bankruptcy-before-2026/)" }, { "id": 39780, "title": "Will Japan's House of Representatives be dissolved before November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Japan's House of Representatives be dissolved before November 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Japan's House of Representatives be dissolved before November 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-japans-house-of-representatives-be-dissolved-before-november-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-07T18:06:49.778801Z", "published_at": "2025-09-07T18:53:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T11:46:44.083066Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-07T18:54:26.220203Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-09T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39229, "title": "Will Japan's House of Representatives be dissolved before November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-07T18:06:49.779406Z", "open_time": "2025-09-09T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-12T18:53:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-12T18:53:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/07/japan-prime-minister-ishiba-shigeru-announces-his-resignation.html) he will resign following the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's [stunning](https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/07/27/ldps-historic-electoral-defeat-upends-japans-politics/) defeat in the 2025 [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) for Japan's upper house, the House of Councillors. The election also was marked by the [rise](https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/08/31/sanseito-forces-japan-to-confront-its-quiet-divisions/) of the right-wing populist [Sanseito Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanseit%C5%8D), which opposes mass immigration to Japan. \n\nIn October 2024, Japan's House of Representatives [was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/japan-politics-ishiba-pariament-dissolution-election-6e7ffd74ff17e263b8aea1283f0afbe8) following the resignation of then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. A similar dissolution [occurred](https://www.npr.org/2021/10/14/1045895456/japans-new-pm-dissolves-lower-house-for-oct-31-national-election) in 2021. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Japan's House of Representatives is dissolved before November 1, 2025. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39780, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761738393.484527, "end_time": 1762585264.946, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761738393.484527, "end_time": 1762585264.946, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.0576932579361486 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4467943994497405, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3127729784198179, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2863235254522127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 493, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/07/japan-prime-minister-ishiba-shigeru-announces-his-resignation.html) he will resign following the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's [stunning](https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/07/27/ldps-historic-electoral-defeat-upends-japans-politics/) defeat in the 2025 [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) for Japan's upper house, the House of Councillors. The election also was marked by the [rise](https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/08/31/sanseito-forces-japan-to-confront-its-quiet-divisions/) of the right-wing populist [Sanseito Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanseit%C5%8D), which opposes mass immigration to Japan. \n\nIn October 2024, Japan's House of Representatives [was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/japan-politics-ishiba-pariament-dissolution-election-6e7ffd74ff17e263b8aea1283f0afbe8) following the resignation of then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. A similar dissolution [occurred](https://www.npr.org/2021/10/14/1045895456/japans-new-pm-dissolves-lower-house-for-oct-31-national-election) in 2021. " }, { "id": 39773, "title": "Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will there be a fatal clash between the US & Venezuela before Nov 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will there be a fatal clash between the US & Venezuela before Nov 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-fatal-clash-between-the-us-venezuela-before-nov-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-06T16:30:49.596442Z", "published_at": "2025-09-06T18:08:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T17:51:57.302418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-06T18:09:16.855532Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-07T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T19:26:03.276906Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39216, "title": "Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-06T16:30:49.596815Z", "open_time": "2025-09-07T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-11T18:08:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-11T18:08:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BBC September 6, 2025 [Trump says Venezuelan jets will be shot down if they endanger US ships](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr70511v774o)\n\n> Donald Trump has warned that, if Venezuelan jets fly over US naval ships and \"put us in a dangerous position, they'll be shot down\".\n\n> The president's warning comes after Venezuela flew military aircraft near a US vessel off South America for the second time in two days, US officials told the BBC's US partner CBS News.\n\n> The reports follow a US strike against what Trump officials said was a \"drug-carrying vessel from Venezuela\" operated by a gang, killing 11 people.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after September 6, 2025 and before November 1, 2025, according to public, [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) there is any fatal clash between personnel of the [United States Armed Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces) and personnel of the [National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bolivarian_Armed_Forces_of_Venezuela) resulting in 1 or more deaths of military personnel on either side. ", "fine_print": "To count, a clash must either be [kinetic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action) (using explosive weaponry) or involve physical violence such as close-quarters combat. Non-kinetic or non-physical actions such as a cyberattack would not count, even ones resulting in deaths.", "post_id": 39773, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761760306.456314, "end_time": 1761777274.773, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761760306.456314, "end_time": 1761777274.773, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.975, 0.025 ], "means": [ 0.06198115678928448 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.46890301972848125, 1.5626558427603792, 2.5084338205269043, 0.3239984154485755, 0.5898635470599414, 0.5177023955836542, 0.0, 0.1857459851945321, 0.03808445092208783, 1.088502737780452, 0.11283046070030779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4437879375084078, 0.07804183443061195, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 566, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "BBC September 6, 2025 [Trump says Venezuelan jets will be shot down if they endanger US ships](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr70511v774o)\n\n> Donald Trump has warned that, if Venezuelan jets fly over US naval ships and \"put us in a dangerous position, they'll be shot down\".\n\n> The president's warning comes after Venezuela flew military aircraft near a US vessel off South America for the second time in two days, US officials told the BBC's US partner CBS News.\n\n> The reports follow a US strike against what Trump officials said was a \"drug-carrying vessel from Venezuela\" operated by a gang, killing 11 people." } ] }
